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Old 01-13-2007, 07:51 AM   #241
Boromir88
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Quote:
It places a lot of power in the hands of a vulnerable Seer who may already have been correctly identified by wolves last night.~Anguirelshield
How do you know the Wolves targeted the Seer last night? Or that's who they believe they had?

I may still vote for you yet Ang, with comments like that one.
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Old 01-13-2007, 08:04 AM   #242
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Oh, come on. Hadn't that occurred to anyone else? I made a slightly more subtle reference to exactly this problem in my "lament for the dead" post that you despised so much. I believe in honesty - the Seer may be in great danger and we can't rely on them to do our detective work for us.
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Old 01-13-2007, 08:18 AM   #243
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White Tree

It just looks like you and Nogrod are trying to stir up Seer talk with a little over an hour left of voting.

I hate your first post of the day because it looks sneaky. You give some congrats than warn us that we're in danger. You advise the Seer to stay hidden unless he/she feels their in danger.

Whether it's what we're all thinking or not, I don't care. I don't want this last hour diverging into talking about the Seer and whether the Seer is the next one. And I'm gonna call out anybody who does.

Our task is to get a wolf, not argue about what the Seer's job is. The Seer knows their job and I trust the Seer to be able to do their job as they see fit.
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Old 01-13-2007, 08:25 AM   #244
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Exactly. But to trust the Seer to the extent that we give up on thinking outside the box ourselves, which is what Bofgrod suggests? Ludicrous.

Which is why I must now vote -

++BOFGROD

I think this is unlikely to succeed, but I wholeheartedly hope it does, after all, find its mark.
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Old 01-13-2007, 08:25 AM   #245
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Silmaril Hmmm . . .

I don't know about you people, but I believe this post of Volo is too hairy for my taste. In fact, I'll dispense with my usual vote analysis and just tell you what I think this post tells me:

1) If we strip it down to the only thing he cannot twist (i.e., his vote), he just looks like he's joining a rolling bandwaggon. Bloody Angamandi, he even said so in that post.

2) If we do look at his 'good and bad' list, we see nothing but an echo of almost everyone's sentiment (everyone that is heard, that is. ) It may be a coincidence that his own thoughts matches the overall mood, or that he is convinced by the arguments presented, but it just feels too . . . safe.

Having said this, I'll do what I can. Maybe we'll still have a chance to lynch him today.

++Volo

Oh, and finally, some suspicion on me. Having missed a DAY 1 angry mob chanting my name, I find the little attention welcome.

Quote:
Some people are not here today and that makes it hard to get a grasp on them.....and then theres Nilp. Ok so what is so great about Nilp that he can just scrape by with a post a day and everyone pretty much leaves him out of everything assuming he is innocent. I purpose that we lynch Nilp after Kath and Rune. He is of no help and there is that "He has to be innocent" thing. (Valier)
My dear, let me remind you that I live in a developing country, and a lot that you take for granted over there in the West is a luxury to us. I'm just scraping time between going to school, attending to the welfares of a level 103 dex-type archer, following my curfew, and finding a half-decent internet café that won't burn holes in my pocket to get online for a few hours.

So sorry to talk about this, but every time I play with Valier this issue just gets taken up.

Well, you're probably right about me being under-the-radar, but I'm not stealthy. Your (pl.) detection platforms may have a problem. I'm broadcasting my opinions pretty loud and clear in the few posts I can make.

Thank you for questioning me, though. Considering that everyone else's attention's pretty much on the loudmouths, this request for circumspection seems an innocent move.
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Old 01-13-2007, 08:43 AM   #246
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Votes so far:

Kath - Nogrod
Menel - Rune
Durelin - Kath
Valier - Kath (Kath 2, Nogrod 1, Rune 1)
Nogrod - Kath (Kath 3, Nogrod 1, Rune 1)
Holby - Thinlo (Kath 3, Nogrod 1, Rune 1, Thinlo 1)
Thinlo - Kath (Kath 4, Nogrod 1, Rune 1, Thinlo 1)
Rune - Anguirel (Kath 4, Nogrod 1, Rune 1, Thinlo 1, Anguirel 1)
Anguirel - Nogrod (Kath 4, Nogrod 2, Rune 1, Thinlo 1, Anguirel 1)
Nilp - Volo (Kath 4, Nogrod 2, Rune 1, Thinlo 1, Anguirel 1, Volo 1)

To vote: Myself, Volo

I have a sneaking suspicion that either Nogrod of Ang are a wolf. I highly doubt both are, as that isn't bold for the wolves, that's just supidity if you ask me. Either one is a wolf, or both are lost innocents.

Unless I missed somebody me and Volo are the only one's left to vote, where it looks like Kath's fate is sealed. I'm constantantly going back and forth with Nogrod, I would like to say he's innocent, but he's been very capable of completely fooling me before. Right, I can't cast a vote for him and feel good about that decision so...

++Kath
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Old 01-13-2007, 08:46 AM   #247
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'constantantly?' Wow, right now I need my morning cup of coffee.
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Old 01-13-2007, 08:47 AM   #248
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Silmaril Oh.

So, no chance of lyching Volo toDAY. Hmmm, I should have kept record of the votes.
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Old 01-13-2007, 08:59 AM   #249
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For some points of discussion for tomorrow perhaps:
Quote:
If you wish to know, what I did in that 20 minutes: I quickly reread the village through, especially Kitanna's and Kath's posts.~Thinlo
Well what you read must have been mighty dramatic for you to change your mind in a short amount of time. As 20 minutes earlier you seemed pretty set on voting for Kath or Kitanna. If you don't mind could you point out some of the things you read that changed your mind so quickly? I'll give you the night to put together whatever you want, as I know you're probably not here.
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Old 01-13-2007, 09:26 AM   #250
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Bofgrod and Nori are in a state of flirtatious love-hate I can't bring myself to like.

Oh, and as I know this made me so very popular before - I predict Kath is innocent.
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Old 01-13-2007, 09:29 AM   #251
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VOTING IS CLOSED

Death to follow shortly.
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Old 01-13-2007, 09:33 AM   #252
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Votes were counted - recounted - and recounted again.

"This can't be right," said Kathin. "You really don't want to do this."

"Yes we do," they said pointing at the votes for evidence.

"I'm telling you...you will not like this," she said as she grew visibly agitated.

"Ooh, here it comes!" they said happily; axes, small swords, hairy fists and magical staffs at the ready.

"Don't make me angry," she threatened again. "You cannot get out of this."

As several dwarf bows were readied and drawn (you don't want to get too close to an angry dwarf, do you?), she launched herself into the crowd axe brandished and bellowing as only a dwarf can. Bows twanged, arrows struck, and Kathin fell dead, but not before burying her axe in Bofgrod's throat.

"Gurgleblarglegllrrrggg!" he said, as blood soaked his beard. "Grbllllaaaagaaaaalll!" and he too fell dead across the body of Kathin.

Neither body morphed, or changed in any way at all.

"Ai, ai!" they wailed.

Living:
Beornomien
Valier the Grey
Meneltarbo Baggins
Thorin Angurielsheild
Voloin
Dori88
Runi son of Bjarne
Orilin
Bifur Fegalund
Bomburlass


Dead:
Eomi of the Rohirrim (Innocent), beheaded on DAY one
dwancing spawn of fundin (Twin), beheaded on NIGHT two
Nari (Twin), died of sorrow on NIGHT two
Gloanna (Innocent), hung on DAY two
Farael the Deathless (Protector), crushed with a hammer protecting his choice on NIGHT three
Kathin (Hunter), lynched on DAY three
Bofgrod (Innocent), taken down with the hunter on DAY three

The third DAY is done/
NIGHT the fourth has begun/
I need names from the Seer and Wolves, what fun/
Bum-ba-dum-badum/
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Old 01-14-2007, 09:38 AM   #253
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They woke that morning with major guilt trips. Major. What was their innocent-to-wolf ratio? Uh, very bad.

They grumbled and looked around for the customary body, and found it strewn out in the yard.

"Oh, his poor arms and legs!" cried Meneltarbo.

The body of Dori88 had been dismembered in a quite crude fashion, likely caused by stringing him up between four trees and then jumping on him.

As they had used up all the stones for Kathin and Bofgrod, they settled for taking care of the body on a pyre. And afterwards, if any small dwarf child asked about the fate of the legendary Dori88, it will be said to them "He was a burned dwarf", and that is enough.


Living:
Beornomien
Valier the Grey
Meneltarbo Baggins
Thorin Angurielsheild
Voloin
Runi son of Bjarne
Orilin
Bifur Fegalund
Bomburlass


Dead:
Eomi of the Rohirrim (Innocent), beheaded on DAY one
dwancing spawn of fundin (Twin), beheaded on NIGHT two
Nari (Twin), died of sorrow on NIGHT two
Gloanna (Innocent), hung on DAY two
Farael the Deathless (Protector), crushed with a hammer protecting his choice on NIGHT three
Kathin (Hunter), lynched on DAY three
Bofgrod (Innocent), taken down with the hunter on DAY three
Dori88 (Innocent), dismembered on NIGHT four

All three Wolves, please stop PMing.
You are all now free to start discussing.
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Old 01-14-2007, 10:41 AM   #254
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Cat got everyone's tongue? It certainly had mine.

Right. Well, I certainly feel like a fool. I don't, though, think that Nori was killed with the primary purpose of framing me, though that would have been a desirable side-effect. I think that his behaviour towards the end of yesterday may have suggested to his murderers that he was the Seer.

Talking of which, it would be nice to have some information now; with a third of the population evil, we need to know who to trust. On the other hand a talkative Seer is a dead Seer and the relevant person may want to stay shtum and get more information. Their choice.

I don't think that Nori's suspects will necessarily be helpful - a frame-up, intentional or not, is so very likely - but it might be interesting to note that one of his main targets was Meneltarbo.

Knowing myself to be innocent, I am now especially suspicious of that Burglar, and of Runi; both of these players tried to keep suspicion fixed on me, Nori and Bofgrod. For my part I fell for the ruse and kept on the attack, in retrospect very rashly.
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Old 01-14-2007, 12:22 PM   #255
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Wow...one post? Well, today will be interesting...

I agree with you, Ang. I think it's quite likely that the wolves feared he might be the Seer. They might have been trying to frame you, and Lommy as well. Boro expressed quite a bit of suspicion of Lommy, particularly near the end. Or Wolf-Lommy feared for her safety. I think the latter is less likely: Lommy really hasn't garnered much suspicion at all, so why should she fear too much for her safety?

It is also possible that they were trying to frame Menel, but Boro was more "subtle" about his suspicion of Menel, I think. Perhaps they thought this was Seer hinting (not hinting towards his role, but slipping suspicion in of a possible dreamt of wolf so it's not blatant)?

I don't know...all I do know is that we really need to get a wolf today, because if an innocent dies today, and then one tonight, it will be 4 against 3. Not good.
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Old 01-14-2007, 12:45 PM   #256
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Sting

Ang, I only mentioned you briefly in one of my posts yesterDay, which turned into more of an attack on Boromir than on you. I mostly went after Rune yesterDay, and still think he's a wolf and my prime suspect. I'm most likely going to vote for him toDay and encourage you to do the same.

In any case, I really hope the Seer's found at least one of the wolves by now. We need to get one of them toDay; otherwise, the village is more or less doomed.
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Old 01-14-2007, 12:50 PM   #257
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White-Hand

Wait, hang on. I also mentioned you in my response to Boro's mention of the question about the Twins' roles, Ang. However, I didn't consider you a wolf in that post.
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Old 01-14-2007, 12:51 PM   #258
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Well this is disheartening...Ok so we have 9 villagers. 3 are wolves and we still have our Seer, so there are 4 Ordo's. Well today is critical, I agree with Durelin. If we don't get a wolf today and they kill another Ordo or worse our Seer, that leaves us with 7. 3 against 4. Not good.
So the Seer I think should only come out.
a) If they have dreamt of at least two Ordo's that are still here.
b) They have dreamt of a wolf and at least one remaining Ordo
c) They fear they might be killed.
If not then I say, try and hold on for one more dream, but if you can help us today Seer it may just give us Oro's the boost we need to catch these VERY crafty Fiends. I would like to hear more from anyone who is around today. I trust noone and am at a bit of a loss. I plan on rereading, but we need to work together if we want to put a damper on these Wolves plan.

x-posted
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Old 01-14-2007, 01:13 PM   #259
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The thing is, no single villager really presents a threat to a wolf, enough of a threat to provoke a kill rather than a lynch, except a Seer-suspect. Mere suspicion can be defended against. Frame-ups are usually more bother than they're worth. But the Seer is a deadly foe to them.

In that sense, it's obvious that Nori, and indeed debatably every other kill so far, was suspected of being a Seer. That is what the wolves will have been looking for, every night.

I think an investigation of Rune might not prove unprofitable. I could see him being a wolf with Beorn and/or Voloin; my evidence for this is egotistical, but nevertheless the best I personally have to go on. Beorn and Voloin have often accused me in a soi-disant way, while Runi may have "broken ranks" to vote for me; I've seen him be a similarly bold wolf before.

I don't currently suspect Orilin much, but this is because of the frailty of my point of view; she's made similar blunders to me and is something of a natural ally.

Valier also rings quite true and I don't think Nilp would have gladly killed Spawn so early. But this is really clutching at straws.

My main suspects, then, are

Rune
Beorn
Volo

in about that order, and I'm also unsettled by Meneltarbo.
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Old 01-14-2007, 01:38 PM   #260
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This looks really bad... Yesterday seems to have been total madness, and I'm really sorry to have been away. I think I should go get my battle-axe and start cutting my wrist, this is pretty depressing you know...

I won't start analysing everything now. But I found something that might be interesting. It's really radical, but at this point, I think that we need to get radical.

Anguirel #205 and Durelin #206. Why do I mention those posts? Because they are scary (of course, I am going crazy with my strange obsession with "signs", in real life): Neither post has anything to say (or I can't see anything good), both posts have a short word meaning nothing in the middle, they are in a row. Ha. and Odd. summ up as a message. No really, what else do the posts have to say?

Yes, I see those two as wolves. And for the third one, I'd like to add Menel to the pack. I'll go on more reasons next.

Durelin

Day1

#10 In character useless post.

#19 -//-

#36 Tries to be useful by listing a list of people who haven't said anything. If this isn't the "useful enough to seem innocent, whatever post" then nothing is...

#37 Adds Lommy to the preveous post. Durelin seems excited...

#42 The first post that holds any meaning (as you can see it in the post number btw). What the Morgoth?? Sure there was little reason to vote anyone on day1 but why Rune, with his one totally innocent post?
That was just my opinion on the stupidity of the vote, not on the suspicion of the post, on day1 that was suspicious but not anymore. Annoying, but not suspicious. Except for the part of wolves staying quiet on day1, I don't think that a loud person would be quiet just because he/she is a wolf... (See Glirdan's game f.ex...)

Day2

#124 Now now, was Durelin's vote any better, somebody took the responcibility of lynching, and that wasn't Durelin.
Agrees with Boromir. Yet Nogrod is unpredictable and is usually the ring-leader...
I'd love to comment the accusation. Why did I point that thing about a possible twin-clue? Heh, because I am crazy about "signs" (as some of you know by now) and because I enjoy proving people wrong.

#133 Doesn't like thinking and says that WW shouldn't be played by analysing. Agrees with Valier that being confused and talking nonsense is good (probably you didn't mean it like that, but I understand it like that... ). Put's a reason why to lynch everyone. Really, this was of no use.

#137 Again she forgets someone... Noggy this time.
I don't get why Durelin suspects Kath here, of course I don't get why she suspects me either. Up to then the only mistakes Kath made was that she was overly friendly, actually same with me (or?). I feel like Durelin just wants to look at Kath to seem helpful, because her only accusation on Kath is that she (Durelin) doesn't like the way Kath talks, no, the way Kath is...

145 Again I see little reason in this post. Durelin votes Kath for the reasons above.
Thinks of me as a waste of time. You don't know how deeply that cut into my egoetic flesh.
Agrees with Boromir about Kitanna being suspicios for going too deep into the Eomer-lynchers.

Day3

#195 Durelin, get a hold on yourself, you're much too excited...
Suspects Boromir for going too hard on Anguriel.
Trusts Anguriel. Why? I can't find a reason to trust him...
Finds Nogrod and Kath scary.
Finds me especially scary, because I voted for Kitanna with no of my own reasons. I'll answer now: Kitanna was suspicious, the most suspicious and I trusted Nogrod and the others to have made a right desicion. I was wrong, but I'm sure all of you agree that Kitanna was suspected for a good reason. Voting for anybody who didn't have any votes, that wouldn't have been any better, would it?
Suspects Menel for being just helpful enough to seem innocent, or whatever. And if anybody, doesn't Durelin fall exactly into that category? And isn't mentioning Menel like this exactly being helpful enough to seem innocent?

#206 This one I already mentioned.

#219 Puts people into four nice groups. What is "I don't care"?
This post has more to offer!: What the Morgoth is this???
Quote:
Originally Posted by Durelin
Thanks, Holby, it's interesting to see how much everyone has posted.
If you wan't my humble opinion, Holby didn't do anything useful there! This is too much like Kath (you, Durelin, so suspect), to be friendly to somebody who "has posted something useful enough to seem innocent". (This makes me want to consider Holby too).
But here Durelin makes a good point! About Kath (whom Durelin so likes to haunt). It is much easier to suspect the "big ones" as they talk more and by that say more things that can be thought of as suspicious.

#229 Votes Kath.

Day4

#255 Agrees with Anguirel that Boromir was killed to frame somebody. Tells that Lommy or Menel might be the ones to be framed. This is one of the "helpful to be innocent"-posts.

I'll continue later, probably in many hours, I'm going to sleep soon, today (in real life) I had a long day and my head is splitting.
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Old 01-14-2007, 01:53 PM   #261
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Anguirel or as I'd like to name him, Ahriel or Thorel.

Day1

#6 In-character. Mentions the twins as evil, the first to tempt discussion about them, very likely that he wanted to draw the twins into a trap.
Actually this one feels really wolfish!

#12
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anguirel
Dwalin m'lady, you are as enlightening as ever. Does this mean, though, that these Twins have not infiltrated the Wolves? I am still somewhat bemused.
So, Ahriel saw that lady Spawn had something to do with the twins. How could we not notice this...

#15 Haha

#26 Suspects Dorimor because of Dorimor's trust of Anguirel.
Suspects Holbytlass for her joke.
Suspects Duriel for being "dead".


#27 "Oh, and, goodnight, loyal subjects..."

#58 Finds it strange that Kitanna is suspected so early.
Wants to vote Duriel for "trivial reasons".

#60 Gets serious and doesn't want to vote Duriel anymore.
The scary "Hmmm."

I'll continue, have to switch off the computer now...
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Old 01-14-2007, 01:53 PM   #262
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Voloin old chap, please be more careful in your reading.

I don't think Nori was killed in order to frame someone.

I think his death does frame some people, but so does every kill. I don't think the wolves killed him to direct a lynching, but to get rid of a Seer.

I mean, if his death was meant to point at me, it's about as ploddingly obvious as Durelin and I being in cahoots, a theory that I know to be wrong...

In the tales of Sherlock Holmes, Holmes's rival is the policeman Lestrade, who always comes up with plausible but wrong solutions.

I think, Voloin, that you might be Lestrade - that is, if you aren't Moriarty.
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Old 01-14-2007, 01:59 PM   #263
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Originally Posted by Anguirel
I don't think Nori was killed in order to frame someone.
Indeed, sorry.. I think that this adds suspicion on Durelin...

I'm Lestrade
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Old 01-14-2007, 02:09 PM   #264
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Voloin, you're so cheerfully convinced in the rectitude of your own theories that I think you might very well be innocent.

I really suggest, though, that you put your pursuit of me aside. I know letting go of hobby-horses is very hard - I myself couldn't help suspecting Bofgrod and Nori, which turned out to be a stupendous blunder.

I know you think you're onto something, and believe me, our evidence is so scant that I can sympathise with someone taking jokes and monosyllabic prose similarities as evidence. But I can assure you that prose style and humour are the two least reliable wolf tracking systems in Rhovanion...

I replace you on my own particular List of Doom with Bomburlass. Her comments about Nori and Bofgrod being duelling innocents now look pretty incriminating - especially as they'd stopped duelling in earnest by the time she'd posted.

I therefore suggest -

Bomburlass - concision, typical inconspicuousness and seems to know a little too much.

Beorn - formed general alliance with Bofgrod and played something of a second fiddle in accusing me, from my point of view a known innocent. Nailed Eomi's coffin early on. A combination with Bomburlass would indicate a sly wolf-for-wolf vote at one point...hmmm. (Yes, Voloin, I intend to keep saying hmmm. Ha.)

Meneltarbo/Rune - I tend to think that one of these excludes the other, but can't quite decide on which of them looks more wolvish.
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Old 01-14-2007, 03:38 PM   #265
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Sorry for my absence, the Bears in the playoffs takes priority...

Delightful, Volo! It is radical indeed to venture away from your big three of Nogrod, Boro, and Ang...particularly considering two out of those three are dead and proved innocent.

I am honored to take Boro and Nogrod's place.

Once again, I'm afraid I must agree with your suspicion of Menel and Rune. Personally, I find Menel more suspicious because I see more connections surrounding him. Connections can easily be drawn from Menel to Volo and to Valier, the three of them dropping the "they seem innocent because of such and such" left and right about each other.

For an example of this, take a look at Menel's post #123 and #129, and Valier's post #130. I asked Valier why she thought Menel was innocent because he was essentially defending Volo (or if she meant something else), but I don't believe she ever answered.

I also find Menel more suspicious because of his connection with Boro's death. Actually, Boro suspected a Menel-Volo connection. I think it is quite possible that the Wolves tried to get Boro the night Farael died, but Farael protected him...this simply based on the fact that if the Wolves really wanted him dead (which I think they had to...Ang is right - the wolves have to get rid of the Seer; also, leaving Boro alive can be a good thing, because as is obvious, people like him and Nogrod, the talkative, take charge ones, are good players for wolves to point suspicion towards to keep people distracted), and so if they tried one Night and the Protector was protecting him, they'd just go for it again the next Night.

I think we need to stop going after the subtleties. I think the Wolves are hiding right in front of our faces. There's been lots of talk of suspicion of a number of people, but in the end they don't garner many votes. The lynch victims have been obvious...they've been unquestionably ahead in the votes. The Wolves aren't sneaking around the spreading the voting, because they don't have to.

Don't over think...go for the obvious.

But also remember that we need to get a Wolf. So please, please hold off on voting as long as you can.
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Old 01-14-2007, 04:15 PM   #266
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Eye

Now, I was not trying to "save a fellow wolf" by mentioning that stuff about Volo. He could well be a wolf, I just found it unlikely that he was a wolf based on his behavior. My reasoning was that if he were a wolf, he wouldn't be making the kinds of risky moves that he had been. Of course, he could be double-bluffing and I may in fact have been somewhat deceived by wolf-Volo's bold tactics.

I have not done an analysis of Volo yet, and so there are likely wolvish things I've missed here and there. If Volo appears to be a wolf, then by all means, vote for him.

I cannot speak for Valier; she defended me, not the other way around.
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Old 01-14-2007, 04:26 PM   #267
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Glad to know you're around, Menel.

Okay, so you were not defending a fellow Wolf. But you won't even say if you suspect him or not? If you've got nothing to lose by him, then why not share your opinion?

If you just don't suspect Volo, okay. If you have nothing to say about Valier, okay. But who do you suspect? Or are you going to wait till you see where the voting is going, and see who you can get lynched, or save from being lynched? Not necessarily an evil tactic, but it is if you already know everyone who's innocent and everyone who's not.
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Old 01-14-2007, 05:03 PM   #268
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Dark-Eye

Okay, I've gone over Volo's posts, and basically I find him rather difficult to place. I can't really find much of a pattern in the people he's been suspicios of.

However, he has voted for Eomer and Kitanna on the Days they were lynched. He was the first to vote for Eomer. When he voted for Kitanna, she already had three votes against her. This makes him look pretty suspicious. When he voted for her, he mentioned that he was joining a bandwagon.

My impression of him is that he's either a very misguided innocent or a very bold wolf, if that helps.

My main suspect is still Rune son of Bjarne.
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Old 01-14-2007, 05:04 PM   #269
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I just wanted to let you know that I am around now. . .

So 2 out of my 3 top suspects turned out to be innocent and that leaves me with Ang. I now have the choise to leave my crusade and look for other suspects or hold on to my belive that at least one of the three is a wolf. A tough desition. . . .

Ang, if you are sure that either me or Menel is a wolf, then hand me a knife and I shall stap him and move the knife around his central nervous system in perfect, destructive elipse.
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Old 01-14-2007, 05:24 PM   #270
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Rune - Okay...so if you stick with your original three, two are dead and innocent, and that leaves you with just one.

But what about the two other wolves?

You say you'd kill Menel...but do you believe he might be a Wolf?

Same with you, Menel. There are three wolves out there, and six villagers. It's time to start drawing connections, broadening your view, particularly since we have a difficult next few days ahead of us unless the Seer miraculously has dreamt of all three wolves (though two of them would be really amazing, as well).

And why exactly do you suspect Rune? Every other post lately it's been "Rune is probably a Wolf." But I haven't seen much action in regards to trying to convince others of it, give compelling reasons, or try and draw connections between him and others you suspect. If there are any others.
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Old 01-14-2007, 05:26 PM   #271
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Silmaril Checking in . . .

Well, this doesn't look nice. We're running out of people here, and the Wolves are still unscathed. Good news, though, is we still have the Seer. I just hope his dreams are useful, otherwise . . . well, I don't think I need to explain the 'otherwise' to you chaps.

I'll be doing two DAYs's worth of voting analyses . . . although I see Volo's tempting me to go rashly at him again with DAY-opening post.
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Old 01-14-2007, 05:31 PM   #272
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I am fully aware that I only have 1 major suspect and that there are 2 out there, but I would not want to point out random people as my prime suspects.

The killing Menel was a comment of Ang saying that he thought one of us to be a wolf, but only one. I was merely saying "if it is so then Menel is the wolf, because I am innocent"
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Old 01-14-2007, 05:39 PM   #273
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Quote:
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The killing Menel was a comment of Ang saying that he thought one of us to be a wolf, but only one. I was merely saying "if it is so then Menel is the wolf, because I am innocent"
I know that was your response to Ang, but I want to know what you think of Menel.
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Old 01-14-2007, 05:53 PM   #274
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Well, Menel is very interesting for me too look at as he reminds me of. . . me. One would think it would make it easy for me to spot of he was innocent or not, but it is not so as wolf-me and innocent-me is not all that different.

Anyways at first Menel came off as very innocent looking, voicing some of the same semi-vauge thoughts I was thinking. This is the main reason I have not yet thought of him as a wolf, but I have had a hard time relating to what he has said of late.

wow! I just realised something while reading over Menels latest posts. He is very vauge about everybody exept me, the rest of you he pretty much says "this person could be a wolf" and then he halfway withdraw the statement. really this is a very good tactic for a wolf. In case he is lynched there will be as good as no trace to his fellow wolves. His only suspect is me (innocent) and the rest of you he says pretty much the same thing about.

Now I hope that Durelin is not a very cunning wolf, that by asking simple question can lead people in sertain directions.
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Old 01-14-2007, 06:36 PM   #275
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Good point about Menel's "suspicion record" leaving no trace, Rune. (That's why I ask questions, to get good observations like that.) And if he is a Wolf, he has no reason to focus his supposed suspicion, particularly at this point. So far we innocents have done well lynching each other.

Let's look at Valier...

ToDay (Day 4), she's posted only once, but though apparently she had time to list what the Seer should do, she did not have time to suggest what the rest of us should do; as in, who we should lynch.

Day 1 - Not there at all. Was sick. Posts once to say so and apologize. Okay.

Day 2 - Posts three times. Once to apologize for not being there and voting, another to say that she thought Volo was innocent for the same reasons that Menel thought he was, and thinks Menel is innocent because he thought that (everyone was looking at Eomer voters). Then posts again to say that Lommy gets freaked out when she has a special role and that she has a weird feeling about her. Votes Lommy.

Day 3 - Posts three times. Lists everyone left alive, then categorizes them based on suspicion.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Val
Ok now people I am unsure of are....
Menel
Kath
Durelin
Nilp

People I have suspicion of
Nogrod
Rune
Ang

Innocent?
Volo
Holby
Boro
Lommy
Basically says that Nogrod seems most guilty to her because he is suspicious of people she thinks are innocent. Says that he seems like a Wolf who is trying to get the ordos to kill each other. (Because Wolves might do other things?) Rune and Ang she just has a "feeling" about.

Then posts to agree with Ang about Nogrod. Then she says that she missed Volo's post and realizes now why he is found suspicious (basically because of a connection with Nogrod). But then oddly enough she suggest that he might be hinting at being gifted. Eh? Wot wot? Why isn't he dead yet, killed by the Wolves?

Then posts to say that she's pretty sure two of the wolves are Kath and Rune. At least she's consistent with Rune...but what happened to Nogrod? Oh, yeah, that's right...I voted for Kath right before her. Convenient vote. She also questions Nilp's "scraping by with a post a day" when she herself posts only minimally.

So...she seems to have a routine. Posts once or twice before the voting really starts...then comes back after a while, votes, and leaves. But she is far from consistent in her suspicion. Her way of "suspecting" is much like Menel's.

I hope Holby and Lommy will be able to post soon. Argh, this silence is unnerving. Maybe, Seer, if you have anything at all, it's time to come out. Because we seem not to be getting very far.
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Old 01-14-2007, 06:53 PM   #276
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Silmaril Day 2

[Times are GMT +8; known innocents are underlined]

08:16am Kitanna - Volo (Volo - 1)
09:12am Farael - Farael (Volo - 1; Farael - 1)
10:23am Valier - Lommy (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 1)
10:31am Durelin - Kath (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 1; Kath - 1)
11:03am Nilp - Kitanna (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 1; Kath - 1; Kitanna - 1)
09:28pm Rune - Valier (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 1; Kath - 1; Kitanna - 1; Valier - 1)
09:52pm Holby - Lommy (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 2 Kath - 1; Kitanna - 1; Valier - 1)
10:00pm Menel - Kitanna (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 2 Kath - 1; Kitanna - 2; Valier - 1)
11:13pm Lommy - Kitanna (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 2 Kath - 1; Kitanna - 3; Valier - 1)
11:21pm Boro - Kitanna (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 2 Kath - 1; Kitanna - 4; Valier - 1)
11:22pm Volo - Kitanna (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 2 Kath - 1; Kitanna - 5; Valier - 1)
11:22pm Nogrod - Kitanna (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 2 Kath - 1; Kitanna - 6; Valier - 1)

I see little in the voting. Kitanna was suspicious, and she did little to alleviate the suspicion. Volo's post still rankles me, and his explanation . . .
Quote:
. . . I voted for Kitanna with no of my own reasons. I'll answer now: Kitanna was suspicious, the most suspicious and I trusted Nogrod and the others to have made a right desicion. I was wrong, but I'm sure all of you agree that Kitanna was suspected for a good reason. Voting for anybody who didn't have any votes, that wouldn't have been any better, would it? (Volo)
. . . does little to ease it. The explanation feels too safe, and seems based on hindsight (hindsight always is 20/20) or some other, ill-gotten, knowledge.

DAY 3 analysis will come up next.
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Old 01-14-2007, 07:26 PM   #277
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Well, Rune, my suspicions of you are mainly based on my observation that you've mainly tended to cast suspicion on known innocents and make safe votes.

And as for a few others:

It's interesting that after Nogrod died yesterDay, Boromir88 was killed the next night, leaving Anguirel as the only loudmouth. I'd say that the wolves were probably trying to frame him.

Thinlomien's suspicions are all over the place and don't leave much of a trail to follow, though for the first two DAYs she's gotten really nervous near the end of the DAY. She's joined all three of the major bandwagons, and after hurriedly suspecting and voting for Eomer on Day One, she gets really defensive about it the next Day. Overall, she appears somewhat nervous and unsure.As she's only had one wolf ancestor, that being a Fenris Wolf, I find her uneasiness to be incriminating.
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Old 01-14-2007, 07:44 PM   #278
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Rune is not a proven innocent, but your vote for him yesterDay was still quite a safe vote, Menel. You were quite safe off in your own little world yesterDay, where Rune was your only real suspect. And your Day 2 vote was a part of the Kitanna bandwagon. I'd call that safe, too.

Though the second vote in a bandwagon is a good place for a Wolf to hide. He/she encourages more votes without actually sealing a person's fate.
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Old 01-14-2007, 07:46 PM   #279
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Double posting, because I forgot...

Your reasoning about Lommy is actually quite a lot more compelling than anything you've offered against Rune, Menel.
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Old 01-14-2007, 07:56 PM   #280
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1420!

Well, I'd just gone over her while I was in the process of making that post, and frankly, I was surprised how well the theory took shape. I'm feeling somewhat inclined to vote for her at this point. I'd say she actually looks more suspicious than Rune does.
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