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Old 01-16-2010, 10:00 PM   #241
Gwathagor
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hK2L_0DeL3U

Mary had been happy at first, when she had taken up with the new guy in town. He was cool. He had a band. They had a kid, they got married, they settled down in a little house just outside the city limits, and Mary felt that everything she had dreamed of for her life was coming true.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5VYyw-XyCw

In a few months, however, it was clear that all was not well. The strain was beginning to take its toll on both of them. Mary sat out on the porch, for the most part, she who had once been so lively, and, with hollow eyes, watched the cars drive past. Some of the vehicles disappeared westward down the highway, never to return, and these she gazed after longingly. She would remain there in her chair well after the sun had set, staring out alone into the night - almost as if she was waiting, or looking for something. Then the baby would cry, and she would head back inside. He, on the other hand, has become restless almost immediately. He was rarely home: during the day, he worked construction, and at night, he would take his car - the only thing he seemed to really car about anymore - racing on the strip, in the streets, wherever. Anywhere but home, which he avoided almost as if it was haunted.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NltljcANCFs

And perhaps it was haunted - by the ghosts of the many dreams which had been born there and which had died so soon afterwards.

On that particular evening, Mary walked home from the grocery store to find that he was gone - and not in the usual sense. His side of the closet was as bare as a bone, his drawers empty, his shoes all gone. Scattered all across the bed were the love letters he had written to her - only a year or two ago, she knew, but it felt like so much longer. She was not entirely surprised to find him gone, but it broke something in deep inside her nonetheless. She sat on the edge of the bed for hours that night, feeling so, so old, reading each letter over and over again, as she knew he must have done earlier that day.

It seemed he had gone south, or west, maybe, to look for better work, but when Mary disappeared as well, no one was sure where she had gone Her baby was left on the porch of her parents' house. Some suggested that she had gone after him, and others, who pointed out that she would have needed a car for that, suggested that the police department dredge the river. But, in the end, no one seemed to care.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPobte6iqSU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFO-N01wup0

[Again, there are not necessarily any hints in the narration. I just write what makes sense in the context of the lyrics.]

***

Day 3 has begun.


The Living
Johnny 99 - Nogrod
City Dude - Inziladun
Gypsy Biker - Shasta
Bad Scooter - Isabellkya
Crazy Janey - Alonariel
Boardwalk Sandy - Sally
Jersey Girl - Wilwarin
Wendy - Lariren

The Dead
Jimmy the Saint - Morsul - The Highwayman (Hunter)
Wild Billy - Glirdan - Innocent
Rosalita - Loslote - Innocent
Mary - Rikae - Innocent
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Old 01-16-2010, 10:05 PM   #242
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Okay, guys, sorry for bailing for most of yesterDay. Here's what I mostly wanted to say but couldn't because of RL problems. Fairly long - hopefully not too hard on the eyes:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
But alona first. No ordo but a seer could say that - and a seer most likely wouldn't anyway unless she was to reveal (and this was before Sally came forwards anyway).
Interesting thought, Nog - unfortunately at this point, I'm most likely gone by the end of the Day, which won't let the wolves win immediately, but it's not a good thing, either. It's a shame that, once people look at a comment in a certain way, they stick with that POV and don't try to see things from another angle.

Wilwa was acting rather level-headed throughout the Day, so I pegged her as innocent since Glirdan told me at one point that she usually only gets worked up when she's either gifted or a wolf. She also didn't jump on Nog's lynching of me right away, either, and waited for other opinions to come in.

Lari, like myself, wanted to dip out of the restart game so I figured she wasn't gifted or a wolf.

Nog I didn't have much of a feeling on until he made a case for my lynching based on Rikae thinking my comment about her was "odd." His behavior seemed bandwagon-esque. And then making a case that Rikae and I are both wolves?

Lottie was someone I was completely wrong about, which makes me re-consider her somewhat flimsy scrutiny of Inzil, even though it might have just been Day 1 ordo-on-ordo. I will say that I would've voted for her, though not because of the tie but because of how she was jumping on Lari - who I'm pretty sure is innocent because of reasons stated above.


People's thoughts on last Night's kill? Pretty much frames me up nicely for a lynch today. Are we thinking the wolves might have thought she was the Ranger?

Sally, any luck dreaming of a wolf?
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Old 01-16-2010, 10:20 PM   #243
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As a matter of fact I might have. However....

Since toDay may be my last Day -again- I'd like to leave you lot a bit of something to chew on. That being said, I will reveal my dream(s) at the end of the Day. With the information I have (or even without it) we've nearly a 50/50 chance of lynching a wolf, which will greatly increase our chances of winning. What I'd like from everyone is a plain and clear suspicion list with as much reasoning as possible for your choices. Anything you can give will help the cause, and I'd love to hear from each player before mid-Day if possible. Mehbe?

Also. Ranger. I need some sort of way of knowing whether or not you protected me last Night. I'm clever, so are you. You'll think of something. And as for the rest of you, please don't go all half-cocked with voting and make me tell you who she is. I'll be very cross with the lot of you.

So. I'm off to analyze. I believe I'll start with Nog. He's been far too quiet.

(Also, the internet's being flimsy as usual so I may be only here in short doses. Never fear, though, for I'll certainly let you know what I know before the Day is out. Also also, I seem to have caught Epic Death, so if I don't show up before a few hours before the deadline someone should probably text me or something to wake me up. I'm just sayin'.)
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Old 01-16-2010, 10:29 PM   #244
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Makes sense to me. If Sally dreamt a wolf, telling us who it is this early on in the Day would basically shut down any progress we'd make today (you know it's true).
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Old 01-16-2010, 10:35 PM   #245
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Also, I kind of want to know how everyone feels about their lovers.


Alona, you're on. Anything to say about Shasta?



ETA: Ah, Shasta's on too. Lol reverse the question as well.
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Old 01-16-2010, 10:43 PM   #246
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Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
Also, I kind of want to know how everyone feels about their lovers.


Alona, you're on. Anything to say about Shasta?



ETA: Ah, Shasta's on too. Lol reverse the question as well.
Nothing really to say. We haven't PMed at all since the lover pairings were revealed.
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Old 01-16-2010, 10:43 PM   #247
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Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
Also, I kind of want to know how everyone feels about their lovers.


Alona, you're on. Anything to say about Shasta?



ETA: Ah, Shasta's on too. Lol reverse the question as well.
Wait, so do you want me to answer that question or not...? I can, if you'd like.

Will work on the list, pronto.
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Old 01-16-2010, 10:46 PM   #248
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Quote:
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Nothing really to say. We haven't PMed at all since the lover pairings were revealed.
But we just cross-posted in the same minute...that has to count for something right, my love?
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Old 01-16-2010, 10:52 PM   #249
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Originally Posted by alonariel View Post
But we just cross-posted in the same minute...that has to count for something right, my love?
Sorry, Mrs. Peacock, I'm still depressed about it.

...
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Old 01-16-2010, 10:52 PM   #250
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Listen, I hardly expect you to listen to me, but perhaps you should reconsider that choice, Shasta. You never know. Alona may have insight you hadn't previously thought of. (Of course the same is also true in the other direction, I'd suspect.)

In other news, yes, Alona, I'd love to hear your thoughts on Shasta. And I'm looking forward to your list!

Either of you have anything you'd like to discuss currently?

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Old 01-16-2010, 10:56 PM   #251
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Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
Listen, I hardly expect you to listen to me, but perhaps you should reconsider that choice, Shasta. You never know. Alona may have insight you hadn't previously thought of. (Of course the same is also true in the other direction, I'd suspect.)

In other news, yes, Alona, I'd love to hear your thoughts on Shasta. And I'm looking forward to your list!

Either of you have anything you'd like to discuss currently?

Well my list goes into some detail about Rikae's kill, but I'd like to know your gut feeling about it, Sally - without revealing too much of course.
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Old 01-16-2010, 11:11 PM   #252
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Well, it was a bloody strike-out with Lottie, but the Seer and Ranger are still standing, and our Sally-seer says there's hope.

Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
As a matter of fact I might have. However....

Since toDay may be my last Day -again- I'd like to leave you lot a bit of something to chew on. That being said, I will reveal my dream(s) at the end of the Day. With the information I have (or even without it) we've nearly a 50/50 chance of lynching a wolf, which will greatly increase our chances of winning. What I'd like from everyone is a plain and clear suspicion list with as much reasoning as possible for your choices. Anything you can give will help the cause, and I'd love to hear from each player before mid-Day if possible. Mehbe?
Going to keep us in the dark again?
Actually, I can see the sense of it.

Let's see...

alona: What I mainly have noted is that odd comment to Rikae about being 'on the same side'. Rikae is now known to be innocent, so I'm not sure if that makes her look better or worse. I can't say I'm comfortable with her, though.

Wilwa: A tough one. Seems all right, mostly. She seemed rather fixated on the PM-Pal issues for a long time, which I found rather pointless. Then again Sally also got into that act as well.

Izzy: Pretty much under the radar. In my limited experience with her I tend to want to suspect her on principle, but I haven't seen anything of note yet here.

Nog: Hasn't been around all that much, and has been fairly intently focused on alona, and to a lesser extent, Rikae. I tend to want to trust him, but he seems a little off this time somehow. Maybe it's just his relatively limited presence this time, which may be due to RL reasons.

Shasta: Shady. Hasn't been around much at all, and I'm hard pressed to remember things he's said. He did make an interesting statement:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
I probably won't vote Wilwa as a matter of fact, considering she's been the main voice of trying to get people re-interested. I may just have to pull out my Magic 8... uh.... I mean, my crystal ball. Yeah, that's it.
At the time I thought that last bit could be a clue to his being the Seer, or a wolf trying to give that impression. Since it's pretty clear who the Seer is at this point, that leaves the latter as my suspicion.

Lari: Pm-Pal. We've talked a fair amount, but I haven't gotten any bad feelings from her.
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Old 01-16-2010, 11:15 PM   #253
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I think I'm getting the hang of these list things:

Nog: He is the one I'm most suspicious of at this point. He jumped on Rikae's comment out of nowhere, which seemed odd. I can sort of (a little) understand Rikae's suspicion, but his right after? Then thinking if I'm a wolf, she could be one, too. And now she's dead. This could be a frame up of me or him, but then, from what I've heard, he is experienced enough to know how to lay a good trap. "It's so obvious that it can't be him, Rikae voted for him" kind of thing. Maybe, but he's at the top of my list right now, putting aside the fact that he's voted for me two Days in a row now.

Inzil: Really, the only suspicion I have of him is Lottie's Day 1 suspicion of him. Now that we know she's innocent (and dead), that might be grounds to look further in to him. But then, I've never played with him so I don't know his style and I don't have any grounded suspicions of my own at this point.

Shasta: He's been flying very far under the radar, which concerns me because in RL WW he didn't at all, whether he was gifted/ordo/wolf. Sally alludes in her post that the Ranger is a girl, so that rules him out as being gifted in this game…at this point, my gut says wolf but it's not based on anything more than the feeling that he isn't being himself, which means he has something to hide...

Izzy: Honestly no idea about her. I've never played with her before, so I'm not familiar with her style and she hasn't been too quiet but not too vocal, either. She hasn't picked a bone with anyone, but she hasn't been overly helpful. I really don't know where she falls on the innocent/evil radar at this point.

Wilwa: Like I stated in my previous post, I don't think she's gifted or evil, just getting nice helpful vibes for her. She didn't jump to conclusions the day before and seems very innocent to me.

Lari: I'm good at reading her and vice versa. Pretty darn sure she's innocent. If it weren't Day 3 and the situation so dire, I would post a rather amusing conversation I had with her the other night about a scenario in which I'm gifted and she's a wolf and vice versa.
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Old 01-16-2010, 11:33 PM   #254
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Sally, did you interweb disintegrate on you again?
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Old 01-16-2010, 11:43 PM   #255
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Quote:
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Well my list goes into some detail about Rikae's kill, but I'd like to know your gut feeling about it, Sally - without revealing too much of course.
Quote:
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Sally, did you interweb disintegrate on you again?
Abigail's battery's about dead. I'm refreshing the thread then going to charge her and finish my analysis of Nog. Assuming I don't fall asleep I'll be back in about half an hour or so (hopefully less).
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Old 01-16-2010, 11:44 PM   #256
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Also, about Rikae. She wasn't much suspected and an unsuspected Rikae is a dangerous Rikae, as people might actually listen to her. Dunno.

It's possible they thought she was the ranger, but I don't think that was the case.


Speaking of the ranger....*bats eyelashes*
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Old 01-16-2010, 11:48 PM   #257
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Quote:
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Speaking of the ranger....*bats eyelashes*
??

I'm looking forward to the Nog analysis, though I do feel slightly guilty about suspecting him so much while he's not here to defend himself. Still have some leftover newbie guilt from the last game. Ugh. Gotta get rid of it.
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Old 01-16-2010, 11:58 PM   #258
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Also. Ranger. I need some sort of way of knowing whether or not you protected me last Night. I'm clever, so are you. You'll think of something.
I had a thought, Sally. Are you sure that's really wise? Isn't there a possibility the wolves could pick up on it, no matter how slyly it's done?
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Old 01-17-2010, 12:10 AM   #259
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I had a thought, Sally. Are you sure that's really wise? Isn't there a possibility the wolves could pick up on it, no matter how slyly it's done?
Hush now, I know what I'm doing. Although unless it's done properly, yes. And of course if the ranger doesn't tell me anything they don't. I'd just like an idea of whether I'm going to live or not so I know whether to go out with a bang.



So I just plugged Abigail in here and decided to camp out on the couch, at least for now. Almost done with Nog and it's not looking too bright.
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Old 01-17-2010, 12:45 AM   #260
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
What a day - and what a Day!

So I only got to the computer now and will have to wake up in about six hours... Well there's not too much to read either. But sadly also little to make a vote on. I must think about it while checking my stuff for tomorrow.

About revealing the pen-pals... hmm. Hard to say as there seems to be no immediate pros or cons: it might help the wolves planning their kills but it might also help us with some possible combinations I think. Needs some thinking as well.

Back soon.
Obviously not a lot to say here. He, like the rest of us, noticed the rather horrid lack of participation on Day One. He didn’t see much point in revealing the lovers (which I’ll get back to later) but says it may help us work out some logistics of the game. Doesn’t make up his mind on the issue and leaves.

Post score: 0



Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dun
We're flying blind both ways, here and with our PM Pals.
That's the problem. There can be things we can try and learn about our pen pals as the game goes on but at least now it's probably quite futile. And if we reveal all the pen pals right now it might affect the way the wolves communicate via PM's - and not for the more "readable" direction - well saying this out aloud might have a similar kind of effect as well now as I think of it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Izzy
Anyone can be paired with anyone. I think I can say that, since I asked Gwath about it.
That's good to hear. And a good point on why that also needs to be true there Rikae.

Okay. I need to go to sleep. This was a bad Day from me but no can do.

So what to say?

I think Rikae, Inzil and Wilwa are trying to do something which makes me appreciate them and I'm not going to vote anyone of them.

Also I agree on Izzy's earlier point about alona, Sally and Glirdy just complaining the lack of posts and then disappearing without actually trying to do anything to the issue themselves. That is a tactics I tend to always suspect and disapprove of.

Lottie's song would be the classic wolf-opening: "I'm a wolf, I'm a wolf! - heh, only joking..."

Voting this early puts me in no position to vote for someone who has not yet appeared.

A tough call then.
Says that while we might be able to use lovers as a tactical advantage it’s too early in the game to put them to any use. A fair point, and one I would normally agree with completely (and in fact did at the time, as you’ll note).

However, the good things I have to say about this post stop there.

It seems to me he’s giving the people in his first list a free pass simply because he knows they’re trying to make him happy. He knows they’re trying to butter up, and he buys it without batting an eyelash or an orange. Such logic can be deadly in Werewolf.

Of his second list I see parroting, and the sort of parroting I majorly disapprove of. First of all, notice that two of the three of his ‘suspects’ are known innocents. Known innocents! Of course they weren’t at the time of his posting but still. And I, at least, was legitimately busy and said so, yet he finds fault with the posts of those who have nothing to reply to? Rubbish, I say. You disapprove of our ‘lack of posts’ tactic, I disapprove of your shoddy logic. (I’ve more to say on this but will leave it for now.)

Post score: -3. Yes, -3. This disturbs me greatly. Although I’ll give him a cookie for the lovers discussion so we’ll call it -2.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
I don't remember I have made as non-grounded decision as this is ever on werewolf.

I'm not saying Rikae, Inzil & Wilwa are innocents. Probably at least one of them is a wolf (that's just even statistically quite so). But as they clearly play I wouldn't like to see them gone toDay.

For a moment I thought I would not vote at all but as I have shown my contempt for such solutions in earlier games I think I have no other choice but to vote.

So just guts.

++ alona

Yeah alona, I feel like a jerk. In the last game you promised to stand by my side whatever came... and this is how I pay you back.

I hope that you'll manage to get that much discussion going on later toDay that you can use at least some reasoning behind the votes when the Day closes.

And of course now he retracts his earlier statement, or at least clarifies. He doesn’t trust all these people, he just doesn’t think they should die that Day. Completely different! (It actually is, of course, but I’ve never known Nog to be much of a flopper, so it looks like he’s setting himself up to say ‘I told you so’ if one of them does turn out to be a [fellow?] wolf. Also, he’s putting people posting over the odds of them being guilty. Not a fan.)

And then he votes on nothing. Nothing, and he even admits it. Also, I’ve never known Nog to be so apologetic when he votes someone. Sounds a bit like he feels bad that he has to send the innocent Alona to her grave in order to make sure the game goes his way.

Post score: -1. I feel merciful.






Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
Finally back home and read the thread. The last posts by Sally... hmm. Back in a minute.
Nothing. And of course....

Post score: 0




Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
As looks quite obvious Sally was the target last Night and was saved by the ranger (decent work ranger as we lost two on D1 - so kind of evens our double loss).

Also it looks to me quite obvious Sally dreamt of Glirdy on N1 - as agreed, the seer would like to know her pal first if he is to be trusted to play together - and thus her panic in the end of the Day.

Furthermore I see no reason to doubt Sally's reveal. And I'll bet she will eventually come back with the one known person to her she must have. But nice drama there at exit to be sure!


Now what makes me wonder is that Lottie was actually quite inquisitive about Sally's panic in the end of yesterDay. And even if her speculations ended up more or less thinking Sally innocent she wished to hear my views on possible explanations of her gifted hints. I've been more than busy - and still am, sorry about that guys - and only answered shortly that I thought that gifted-hinting was not a reasonable POV there... and then the wolves try to kill Sally the same Night.

How much did you others discuss Sally last Night? Was it something everyone talked about or...?
Well of course I was! Lol.

And....erm, thanks for losing me my bargaining “guess who I dreamed on Night One” chip. I’m not sure an ordo would say this sort of thing while the seer’s still alive. I mean fine, analyze all you want when I’m dead but until then don’t try to tell me who I dreamt. I could have bluffed quite easily that I’d dreamt someone who was alive, thus making the wolves nervous, but now it’s useless. (I mean yes, it’s true, but I had a big reveal planned for that and it’s ruined now. Rubbish.) And to be fair, I really just freaked out because he was my lover and dream conduit.

Trusts me and expects drama later. I mean it is me after all. Hehe.

Now that we know Lottie to be innocent I find this a bit interesting. I’m sure it was just a still relatively new Lottie being inquisitive (bless her) but for Nog to bring this up makes me shifty toward him, as saying that makes her look bad.

I also feel like he’s gone fishin’ with the last statement.

Post score: -3. Again.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
Another thing that makes me feel a bit suspicious started from this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alone
Rikae: Admittedly scares me (in a good way, I think), so I'm glad to have her on my side in this game.
Now some others have commented on this already but I'm also a bit worried about Rikae's answer to that comment:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
The one thing that jumped out at me was alona's weird statement that we're on the same side. I doubt she'd be so obvious if she actually knew, so I'm inclined to think she knows the opposite - knows I'm not on her side, and hopes such hinting will win my trust.
But alona first. No ordo but a seer could say that - and a seer most likely wouldn't anyway unless she was to reveal (and this was before Sally came forwards anyway). Especially as she didn't say "I believe" or "I have a strong feeling", or "I have good vibes" but just plain and simple: "glad to have you on my side in this game". I know people think differently, but it's hard to see an ordo thinking like that in any circumstances, especially early on D2 basing her "knowledge" on Rikae's few posts she had made on D1!

But what about Rikae then? Now it looks like a really weird comment to suggest that alona would try to win her trust with that comment. And I guess Rikae realised it as she made a corrective move a bit later explaining alona's possible motivation a bit more. I just feel there is something fishy in there.

It could be within limits of believability that alona and Rikae actually are in cahoots here: alona made a major slip and Rikae tried to distance herself from her because of that.

Be that conspiracy theory as it may be, but I'm most probably going to vote alona again toDay. Not only because of that one thing with Rikae, but also looking at her so busy explaining herself time and time again and making comments I think were more fishy than not. I'll come back with some examples to show what I mean.
Again, he’s making a case against a now-known innocent. I don’t like his track record for doing that. Talks about Alona’s “yay we’re on the same side” comment again and says he’ll probably vote her because she’s likely working with Rikae. Erm....yeah, about that....

Post score: -2



Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
On alona on D2

In the beginning there is basically just some odd air around her posting - something giving me a bit similar kind of feelings she gave me yesterDay, but maybe more. Like answering the question of her role with: "Plain ordo like last game, I'm afraid." or "wondering" why the wolves didn't kill her during the Night (why would they?).

But then her own explanation to Sally's question why she was so sure Rikae was on her side is interesting to say the least:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alona
I just meant we're on the side of innocents. All I know is whenever I'm evil, Rikae knows it like the back of her hand. And if she is evil...eek, well then I'm totally screwed. But I'm not really getting that vibe, hence my goodwill statement that we're on the same side.
"I just meant we're on the side of innocents"!!! Now what? If you're an innocent alona that sentence is not adding anything to what you said earlier - and doesn't explain it in any way.

But why do you feel the need to say that what you really meant, was that you both are innocents?

And it is an intresting way to phrase a "goodwill statement" by saying you "know" the other is on the same side as you...

It's hard to believe in your sincerity here alona as the other explanation would fit so nicely.

Then she tried to turn the attention to Lottie on the issue of whether Morsul and Sally were "cleared". And when it backfired she turned into suspecting Sally's innocence with some dedication.

And this sounds like a disappointed wolf brooding over unfair rules:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alona
But are we even allowed to know who the wolves tried to Night kill? That would be like knowing who the Seer dreamed of or who the Hunter was hunting.
The last posts she has been mainly defending herself...

At this point of the game she's truly my best bet for a wolf. Especially because of that above quote where she answered the question on why she was so sure about Rikae being on the same side.

And if she is lynched and turns out a wolf, I think we should really look at Rikae closely toMorrow.

Aaaaand again. He’s focusing solely on Alona, and I’d really like to know why. Other than that, I don’t feel like offering commentary. He’s being extremely one-minded and it’s scary. (I’m not saying that none of his points are valid arguments, just that he sticks to them even if they’re not exactly the best, and doesn’t concentrate on anyone else unless he can tie them to Alona.)

Post score: -1, because he’s already far enough in the hole.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
Bedtime.

As Sally has not declared her innocent...

++ alona

For reasons above.

I've had a few terribly busy days now but that's the RL sometimes intruding with a game of werewolf. It should slowly ease up though.
Yes, because I’d hand over an innocent on a silver platter unless they’re being threatened. (That and I wasn’t even around.) Also, his reasoning’s rather meh, so I’m unimpressed.

Post score: -1. Again.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
If someone hasn't noticed this, pay heed:

Quote:
Originally Posted by the modly mod
they may protect the same person no more than two nights in a row. They may protect themselves once only during the game.
So we'll have Sally around toMorrow as well. Make your dream a good one Sally!
Is it paranoid of me that I think he really means ‘make it a good one’? ‘Cause I do. Of course a Nog wolf would want me to dream an innocent, and I know he’d be clever enough to word it like that so he looked good but was actually being sneaky. Thoughts on this?




Overall it doesn’t look too good for Nog. He’s single-mindedly attacking one person, and all the other people he’s even considered accusing are known innocents. It’s very troublesome.

Oh, and his final score? -10/10. Red....no, mauve alert.

Now since I know he’s not the ranger I wouldn’t feel entirely bad for voting him (and in fact would find it quite ironic, since he’s been posting so little that I can’t shake the bad vibes) but I’m not sure I want him as my top suspect toDay since he’s not around. I’ll certainly put him toward the top of the list though!
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Old 01-17-2010, 12:48 AM   #261
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Also, since the dream's out of the catcher I might as well post this. I sent it to Gwath along with my second dream because it de-stressed (and distressed lol).



There was a game when Wilwa sighed
When Rikae theorized and held lovers in check
There was a time when no one died
And Little Lottie spoke in song and PMs were in excess
There was a game
Then the votes went wrong

I dreamed a dream of Glirdan’s role
I filled his inbox with sweet whispering
I dreamed that we could reach our goal
I dreamed that Gwath would be forgiving
Then I was full of plans and aims
We hoped to dream and trick the werewolves
There were PMs to be exchanged
No scheme unplanned, no single plot hole

But the votes came tumbling in
Even though we weren’t accusing
I still knew he was done in
As the hunter took him down

He spent a Night with me aligned
He filled my inbox with his musings
He texted me to save his hide
But he’s gone out with Morsul now

And still I dream he'll message me
That we’ll defeat the wolves together
But there are posts that will not be
And my PM box has seen better

I somehow thought this game would be
So different from this thread I’m reading
So better now than what I see
But Morsul’s killed the dream I dreamed
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Old 01-17-2010, 01:02 AM   #262
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With all the song parodies going on, I feel like I should do one.

Also theatre is kicking my butt, for those who think I'm "flying under the radar". Just ask Sally about the free time (or lack thereof) when you're rehearsing for a musical. Rather ironically, considering her role, we're doing "Grease". The next few nights should be pretty good for me, though, as it's the weekend.
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Old 01-17-2010, 01:21 AM   #263
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
With all the song parodies going on, I feel like I should do one.

Also theatre is kicking my butt, for those who think I'm "flying under the radar". Just ask Sally about the free time (or lack thereof) when you're rehearsing for a musical. Rather ironically, considering her role, we're doing "Grease". The next few nights should be pretty good for me, though, as it's the weekend.
Heh. As long as you save some time for the Downs.



All right, folks, that's it from me for tonight. Sorry, but I'm exhausted. Later!
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Old 01-17-2010, 01:24 AM   #264
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Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
Is it paranoid of me that I think he really means ‘make it a good one’? ‘Cause I do. Of course a Nog wolf would want me to dream an innocent, and I know he’d be clever enough to word it like that so he looked good but was actually being sneaky. Thoughts on this?
From what Lari has told me, Nog is very skilled whether he's ordo, gifted or a wolf. So not sure here, but he did accuse me of similar wordplay, and now that you've pointed it out, I would like to hear his explanation of it. I agree with you about not wanting to vote for him until he's had a say about the suspicions against him because we really, really can't afford to lynch another ordo with how low the numbers are right now.
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Old 01-17-2010, 01:46 AM   #265
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For my last post of the night, I would like to point out that Inzil's suspicion of me is based on me referring to my reputation as a psychic. That is all.
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Old 01-17-2010, 02:03 AM   #266
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I'm going to post this and probably not post until tomorrow morning and then vote, because I have to drive back to LA, and that's a fun six hour drive.

To be honest, I have no idea. Most people have either been silent or saying things that, while not entirely suspicious, are not entirely clear of suspicion. So I guess I'll try to same something, but I'm gonna be honest here, my list of no reads is a lot longer than my list of reads.

A is for alona who is being too brash and outspoken to be (presumably) anything but innocent. As a wolf she plays safe and quiet. As an ordo she plays loud.

In is for Inzil who is my PM buddy.

Iz is for Izzy who hasn't said a lot and I have absolutely no idea.

N is for Nog who is way quiet than I've ever seen him. I know he says he has RL things and I'm not saying that's an excuse for his quietness, but even when he had RL things before, he would be up til 5 AM posting huge epic long posts and threatened with mod fire if he didn't sleep. So does this mean that RL is really this hard or is this how Nog-wolf plays?

Sa is for Sally who I see no reason to doubt.

Sh is for Shasta who I've seen in RL how tricky he can be, but I still have no idea.

W is for Wilwa who is on Sally's no vote list. I really have nothing else on her, either. She's been un-outstanding, and I mean that in the nicest possible way.

I'm of terrible no use, mostly because I seem to not know anything that's going on in this game. Blech.
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Old 01-17-2010, 07:38 AM   #267
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Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
Abigail's battery's about dead.
What happened to Hunter?

So I have to go off to Church, I'm just popping on really quick. Once I get back I'll have the whole afternoon to read back through everything again and hopefully my list will be epic. Sally dear, you won't have it by mid day though, maybe closer to 65% into the day.

I also have a staff party to go to tonight so I'll be gone for a good chunk of time, and then come back again, probably just in time to vote.
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Old 01-17-2010, 10:10 AM   #268
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Okay. Back to read. Starting from yesterDay from when I left.

Sorry. My days (RL) have been "wake up early, head to work, go non-stop 12-14 hours, come home 10-11PM..." So I haven't actually been able to spend too much with this game.

But I should have some time toDay... well, into reading first. But I'll be around if anyone wishes to discuss this or that.
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Old 01-17-2010, 11:15 AM   #269
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lari
N is for Nog who is way quiet than I've ever seen him. I know he says he has RL things and I'm not saying that's an excuse for his quietness, but even when he had RL things before, he would be up til 5 AM posting huge epic long posts and threatened with mod fire if he didn't sleep. So does this mean that RL is really this hard or is this how Nog-wolf plays?
I can post up to 5AM - even 7 AM - when I have a day off that day, like a weekend or vacation, and the game is interesting. Sadly I've had early morning calls every day this time (weekend included), but I've still posted into 1 or 2 AM... Sorry to disappoint you, but even I need some sleep if I have a 14-hour workday to look for.

Okay. I'll answer Sally's (mis)analysis first and then start looking for the wolves.
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Old 01-17-2010, 12:24 PM   #270
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Triple-posting... sadly

For D1 (bolding mine)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
I think Rikae, Inzil and Wilwa are trying to do something which makes me appreciate them and I'm not going to vote anyone of them.
It seems to me he’s giving the people in his first list a free pass simply because he knows they’re trying to make him happy. He knows they’re trying to butter up, and he buys it without batting an eyelash or an orange. Such logic can be deadly in Werewolf.
What? C'mon! If someone plays on D1, I like it. And you know it. I never vote for those who PLAY on D1 - unless there is a strong enough reason for it (then I will vote for an active player to be sure).

We all know that it is easier to suspect someone who says a lot (not just banters but really says something). That's the sad fate of our active players who try to contribute on D1 - so I will stand beside anyone who contributes and wish to do away with slackers on D1, unless there is a strong suspicion and yadayadayada.

So what is that "buttering up" thing there? I just don't get it. I said they are "doing something" eg. contributing, trying to get some discussion rolling, making points, not just hunkering down, not just trying to be as uncontroversial as possible... that's what I think everyone should do already on D1! I don't think any one of them was active "just to butter me up". That would be preposterous indeed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
Quote:
I'm not saying Rikae, Inzil & Wilwa are innocents. Probably at least one of them is a wolf (that's just even statistically quite so). But as they clearly play I wouldn't like to see them gone toDay.
And of course now he retracts his earlier statement, or at least clarifies. He doesn’t trust all these people, he just doesn’t think they should die that Day. Completely different!
That is not a retraction, but you cancall it a clarification. The bolded part of what you said is exactly what I meant. What I said earlier was that they "are trying to do something which makes me appreciate them and I'm not going to vote anyone of them." That is not completely different but the same thing (clarified). I said I appreaciated their way of play (as it was D1) and would not vote for them. I never said I thought them innocents.

If I wouldn't believe that you're the seer Sally, I would be really suspicious of your twisting of my words.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
And then he votes on nothing. Nothing, and he even admits it. Also, I’ve never known Nog to be so apologetic when he votes someone.
There is a simple explanation: I have never been forced to vote with that little stuff to read / time to use for thinking about what to do. I was really feeling insecure there. Although with hindsight I think my guts were not that bad after all... but that's another story to be discussed later.

For D2
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
Also it looks to me quite obvious Sally dreamt of Glirdy on N1 - as agreed, the seer would like to know her pal first if he is to be trusted to play together - and thus her panic in the end of the Day.

Furthermore I see no reason to doubt Sally's reveal. And I'll bet she will eventually come back with the one known person to her she must have.
And....erm, thanks for losing me my bargaining “guess who I dreamed on Night One” chip. I’m not sure an ordo would say this sort of thing while the seer’s still alive. I mean fine, analyze all you want when I’m dead but until then don’t try to tell me who I dreamt. I could have bluffed quite easily that I’d dreamt someone who was alive, thus making the wolves nervous, but now it’s useless.
I'm sorry to have blown your scheme, but here you must look at the mirror as well and bear at least part of the burden yourself. Now when you claimed you had dreamt of two wolves and said you would not come back as you were annoyed with us, you had also left a list where you put me and Inzil as the two you "could easily vote". So as I needed to go to sleep and could not affect the last hours - and not being sure you came back to say you were not serious - some could have voted for me, an innocent, because of your list & "revealment of two wolves".

Had you not made that list I wouldn't have said that, or had I been able to stay up for the rest of the Day...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
Now what makes me wonder is that Lottie was actually quite inquisitive about Sally's panic in the end of yesterDay. And even if her speculations ended up more or less thinking Sally innocent she wished to hear my views on possible explanations of her gifted hints. I've been more than busy - and still am, sorry about that guys - and only answered shortly that I thought that gifted-hinting was not a reasonable POV there... and then the wolves try to kill Sally the same Night.
Now that we know Lottie to be innocent I find this a bit interesting. I’m sure it was just a still relatively new Lottie being inquisitive (bless her) but for Nog to bring this up makes me shifty toward him, as saying that makes her look bad.
We know Lottie was innocent... now. But we didn't know it back then. I didn't. But had I been lynched or Night-killed that could have been a piece of information that might have been valuable - and none else but I had it. For me her inquisitiveness especially on you Sally that Night and the fact that the wolves tried to kill you seemed suspicious enough to voice it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
How much did you others discuss Sally last Night? Was it something everyone talked about or...?
I also feel like he’s gone fishin’ with the last statement.
Sorry. I was trying to find out for myself - and to you all others - whether what I said about Lottie's PM's were significant or not. I mean, to me it was odd she was only interested of Sally (remember we didn't know you are the seer) and then Sally was about to be killed. So I was interested whether others talked about it as well eg. whether I was the only one who didn't think Sally's actions were something special or odd.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally on my suspicion on Rikae
Again, he’s making a case against a now-known innocent. I don’t like his track record for doing that.
Me neither.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
Aaaaand again. He’s focusing solely on Alona, and I’d really like to know why.
You just complained I suspected Lottie and Rikae...

But to be honest, I had no time. I had to pick something that to me looked suspicious and try to see whether there was anything in there that would comfirm my suspicions or not. With alona there really was - and is. I really don't understand why you people don't see it. What she said to Rikae is unthinkable from an innocent mouth. None of us innocents knows anyone of the others to be on our side so we just can't "slip" that kind of thought as it is not a possible thought - at least early on D2 regarding someone who had posted like four posts or something.

If you don't actually know someone to be on your side you just can't "accidentally" say "it's great we're on the same side this time"!!! But if you're a wolf who needs to deceive you could in theory make a major slip like that. It is quite odd a wolf would be that thoughtless, but it would be even more implausible for an innocent to say that!
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Old 01-17-2010, 12:51 PM   #271
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Yes Nog, and now that I see that I still have no idea about anyone.

Ok I have to vote now because I'm making no promises about even being here for deadline. There's some rain in the forecast and I'm not taking chances. We had three people, I believe, who didn't vote yesterDay.

So I'm not voting Sally. Mostly because I'm inclined to believe her. I'm not voting Nog because if he is innocent he could sniff out a wolf. And we have to get a wolf toDay, unless the Ranger was daring last Night. Because we will be equal toMorrow.

So that leaves Alona, Inzil, Izzy, Shasta, and Wilwa as possible votes. Not voting Alona because I still think she's playing way to loud to be a wolf. Her wolf style is quiet and on the sidelines. Wilwa was on Sally's no vote list yesterDay and I have nothing really on her so I'm not really ok with voting for her.

And that leaves Inzil, Izzy, and Shasta. I have no idea. Do I believe what I've been told? Well, I'm left with three. And there are three wolves. Which means odds are that one of them is a wolf. I know Shasta is busy but he could also just be flying under the radar. It could happen. And out of all of them, I think I'm going to go with Shasta.

++Shasta

And this time I do want to vote him.
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Old 01-17-2010, 12:57 PM   #272
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
But to be honest, I had no time. I had to pick something that to me looked suspicious and try to see whether there was anything in there that would comfirm my suspicions or not. With alona there really was - and is. I really don't understand why you people don't see it. What she said to Rikae is unthinkable from an innocent mouth. None of us innocents knows anyone of the others to be on our side so we just can't "slip" that kind of thought as it is not a possible thought - at least early on D2 regarding someone who had posted like four posts or something.

If you don't actually know someone to be on your side you just can't "accidentally" say "it's great we're on the same side this time"!!! But if you're a wolf who needs to deceive you could in theory make a major slip like that. It is quite odd a wolf would be that thoughtless, but it would be even more implausible for an innocent to say that!
Seriously, Nog, if our Seer is able to hone in on so much suspicious activity from you and you explain it away with a need for sleep (an explanation I used for my flipflop during the debate with Lottie) mis-reading Lottie (something I admitted to), and simply "gut" feeling when voting for me (my main explanation for my comment about Rikae), why am I so much more suspicious than you are? Your single-mindedness is getting to me, because yeah, the wolves won't win immediately if we lynch an ordo today, but it certainly doesn't put the village in a good position.

And let's be honest, I'm not a good enough player to escape the Seer's notice, convince both her and other players I'm innocent and rack up so much suspicion against you in the process. Unless this whole thing is ordo-on-ordo and I really am that clumsy. This is only my third online WW game, I'm still learning. And I still make slips like the one I made when referring to Rikae, though I didn't think of it as a slip at the time. Obviously. I'll say this, too, if I were a wolf this game, Lari would have been the first Night kill, end of story.


Side note: I'm probably taking this more personal than normal, but that's mainly due to RL. I'm not exactly in my best frame of mind at the moment. Probably shouldn't even be playing, but it's a great escape and I need one of those right now.
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Old 01-17-2010, 01:05 PM   #273
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Yes Nog, and now that I see that I still have no idea about anyone.

Ok I have to vote now because I'm making no promises about even being here for deadline. There's some rain in the forecast and I'm not taking chances. We had three people, I believe, who didn't vote yesterDay.

So I'm not voting Sally. Mostly because I'm inclined to believe her. I'm not voting Nog because if he is innocent he could sniff out a wolf. And we have to get a wolf toDay, unless the Ranger was daring last Night. Because we will be equal toMorrow.

So that leaves Alona, Inzil, Izzy, Shasta, and Wilwa as possible votes. Not voting Alona because I still think she's playing way to loud to be a wolf. Her wolf style is quiet and on the sidelines. Wilwa was on Sally's no vote list yesterDay and I have nothing really on her so I'm not really ok with voting for her.

And that leaves Inzil, Izzy, and Shasta. I have no idea. Do I believe what I've been told? Well, I'm left with three. And there are three wolves. Which means odds are that one of them is a wolf. I know Shasta is busy but he could also just be flying under the radar. It could happen. And out of all of them, I think I'm going to go with Shasta.

++Shasta

And this time I do want to vote him.

Sounds reasonable to me. Depending on what Sally has to say later, I could well follow suit. And you're right, of course. If an innocent is lynched toDay, it's very likely going to be a wolf win. As it is now, the ratio of innocents to wolves stands at 5:3. If an innocent goes toDay, it'll be 4:3 toNight, and all they'll need is one more kill.
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Old 01-17-2010, 01:22 PM   #274
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Here's the votes from D1 & D2. Known innocents are bolded.
(EDIT: the X in front of Izzy & Lari are the "wrong deadline votes)

D1

Nog -> alona
wilwa -> Sally
Lottie -> Inzil
Rikae -> Glirdy
Inzil -> Lottie
X Izzy -> Shasta
X Lari -> Shasta2
Morsul -> Glirdy2
(Lari -- Shasta? = not valid)
Glirdy -> Morsul
alona -> Morsul2
Shasta -> Morsul3

hunter reveal
Glirdan target

Sally -> Shasta3

flip coin: Morsul dies -> Glirdy dies

D2

Nog -> alona
Lari -> Lottie
- .10 wilwa -> Shasta
- .04 Inzil -> Lottie2
- .02 Lottie -> alona2
- .02 Rikae -> Nog
- .01 Izzy -> wilwa

Did not vote: alona, Sally, Shasta

Seemingly a flip of coin once again? -> Lottie dies


Interestingly the three who didn't vote on D2 were the first to post toDay...
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Old 01-17-2010, 01:30 PM   #275
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Silmaril

So I re-read from the beginning and quoted a bunch of stuff and here they are with my random thoughts, and then a list:

Quote:
Originally Posted by alonariel View Post
I'm not having the best of times right now, so I'm just going to vote and go to bed. For reasons stated earlier:

++Morsul
I dislike this vote. Her reasons were that she didn't like Morsul's "out of nowhere" vote for Glirdan, but when he voted he was under the impression that DL was fast approaching, and it was kinda a rush in the moment thing. Lari's vote was the same, but Alona found nothing wrong with it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
Being innocent and single gets you no action. (Heh. I see what I did there.)
I just think this is funny cause Sally and I ended up stranded in the same boat at the same time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by alonariel View Post
Plain ordo like last game, I'm afraid. I'm actually surprised the wolves didn't go after me Night 1 - which might exclude Rikae, Wilwa, Lari and Shasta since they were present at the Bostonmoot games
This whole post bugs me too. I don't really get why she thought she was a logical wolf choice.

Quote:
Originally Posted by alonariel View Post
Rikae: Admittedly scares me (in a good way, I think), so I'm glad to have her on my side in this game.
I'm aware this has been mentioned a lot already. Now if Rikae had ended up guilty I would be quite convinced that Alona is too. Rikae being innocent just makes me confused about this. I don't really know...

Quote:
Originally Posted by alonariel View Post
Okay, but here's what worries me: your surety that Sally's a "known" innocent - when in fact, only Morsul and Glirdan are the "known" innocents.

Why are you so certain of Sally's innocence, Lottie?
Wow I quoted Alona alot....this is weird cause it was pretty obvious Sally was innocent. And it was explained to her a couple times but she still seemed to want to shed doubt on it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Isabellkya View Post

I disagree that it would be "in the wolves interest to (at least in the absence of a better kill) get rid of any unwanted attention." in regards to killing their lovers. It seems like a mighty large trail that they would be leaving behind. I can't imagine them being such generous (and obvious,) Hansel and Gretels.
Well I agree with this statement, but it's just the Hansel and Gretel thing, made me nostalgic.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Inziladun View Post
Also, she can steer us away from the Ranger, but she apparently can't lead us to a wolf at the moment. I don't want to lynch the Ranger, but I don't want an ordo either.
This still bothers me. I'd happily die if it meant the Ranger could survive, especially since our Seer needs him so much. Yes wolves are our priority, but Sally can give us an advantage over the wolves, therefore keeping the Ranger alive keeps her alive and stays on track with our objective. I don't really get why he objected to this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Isabellkya View Post
A flaw I see on that plan Wilwa is that it won't give us much information to go on toMorrow. If the person picked by Sally is not a wolf, then I imagine the wolves will have no problem in going along with it. I imagine they probably won't have much problem with it, even if it is a wolf - so they could try and blend in with the crowd.

Lynching a wolf is priority. If we can't get one, an ordo is better than a gifted.
She kinda goes against the idea like Inzil, but then her last sentence makes up for it, so that's fine actually, when I quoted this I hadn't noticed that last part.

Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
Also, I kind of want to know how everyone feels about their lovers.
Mine was awesome, may he rest in peace.

Sally: I don't think the Ranger needs to hint to you whether they protected you or not, too risky for him, cause he needs to stay alive as long as possible so he can protect you as long as possible. Oh, and if you didn't dream a wolf last Night then I'm gonna vote for whoever you vote for anyway, cause with our numbers dwindling I don't want to risk a last minute bandwaggon that kills our Ranger, cause then you're definitely dead toNight.

List? Ok then...

Nogrod: not too too much from him, but what I have seen I've agreed with or at least understood his logica and I don't see anything wrong with him

Alona: I want to trust her, and there's something nagging at the back of my head that is making me want to trust her, but there's also a lot of stuff that she's said that just urks me the wrong way (see above). So I'm on the fence here, it's like my half of me sees the logic that she could be guilty, then another half is like "no no, she's good, trust your gut"...so yeah, I don't know

Lari: uhm, kinda under my radar, but nothing stood out so I'm good here for now

Izzy: so yesterday she said something like she didn't get my whole Shasta deal, so I asked what she meant by that, and all she did was quote what I had said, she didn't really say what she found wrong with it, and then voted for me cause I didn't explain my reasoning (when I couldn't explain, since she never really told me what needed explaining)....so I don't like that, the vote itself I get, cause Shasta was a kinda rushed flimsy thing from me, but just that one part bugs me...I don't however have anything else against her at the moment, so this is not enough to go on, off this alone I would not vote for her

Inzil: ahh, my dear ex-lover, I'm really starting to suspect him. His comment that I quoted earlier was odd, and he at one point said I was "fixated" on the revealing lovers thing, when I actually had just made an off handed joking (only Lottie seems to pick up on the joking part) suggestion, and then others took it serious and actually followed through, so I wouldn't say I was fixated. Anyway....yeah, a few things here in there, I'll try to take a closer look later.

Shasta: Yes, I voted him yesterDay, yes the reasons were flimsy, and no I don't really have anything new to add about him right now.

Hmm. Need a break, the whole read through took me like an hour. Be back later.

x'ed with a few people
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Old 01-17-2010, 01:31 PM   #276
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What happened to Hunter?

So I have to go off to Church, I'm just popping on really quick. Once I get back I'll have the whole afternoon to read back through everything again and hopefully my list will be epic. Sally dear, you won't have it by mid day though, maybe closer to 65% into the day.

I also have a staff party to go to tonight so I'll be gone for a good chunk of time, and then come back again, probably just in time to vote.
Hunter died back in November.

And I look forward to seeing your epic list! And don't worry if it's not here by mid-Day (which it obviously isn't lol) because I slept late so I think I'll be at least somewhat conscious for the rest of the Day. Yay lists!


And Nog, you do have to agree that you've gone after Alona a lot, though I'll say in apology that I should have stated you went mostly after her. You have though; for the most part, you've accused someone then just gone back to Alona. But if I was 100% convinced you were a wolf I'd have voted you already, so for now let's just consider you on the 'possibly dangerous' list. Which is always where you belong anyway.



For everyone else. Remember what I said about going all half-cocked? I mean it's fine for now, but I don't want things to go downhill later and end up swinging the ranger's direction. Which reminds me. A list of my own. (Keep in mind this is how I would feel regardless of my dreams, so please don't accept it as pure canon.)


Possibly guilty:
Nog (too quiet, and when he is he doesn't seem to be ordo!Nog)
Izzy (too quiet and too like Nog, which worries me. Also, she's too far off everyone's radar and I never like that.)

Not sure, but could go either way:
Lari (while Alona thinks she's probably innocent, I'm not entirely convinced. She looks a bit too calculated for my taste.)
Dun (just because of a few things he's said, which I hope to point out when/if I get to my analysis of him)
Wilwa (again, has said some things I'm not too comfortable with, although her concern for my lost computer is touching)
Shasta (because a wolf!Shasta would be more active even if he did have a show. Of course he could be laying low specifically for that reason, so dunno.)

Probably innocent:
Alona (because she's been helpful to the point of beyond helpful and I'm not getting any sort of wolf vibe from her, which would normally be worrying but I can read her fairly well so I place her here)

In her own little guilt-free world:
Sally. Because I'm ever so cute and cuddly. ^_^


ETA: x'd since Lari's vote. And Wilwa can come here and collect her hug.
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Old 01-17-2010, 01:47 PM   #277
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Let's also see the pairs... (known innocents bolded)

Sally/Glirdan
Shasta/Alona
Morsul/Wilwa
Rikae/Izzy
Nog/Lottie
Dun/Lari

Looking at it now and not believeing there is a wolf-wolf PM-pair (well, there might be, but I'd think it less probable than every wolf being given as a PM-pal to an innocent) the situation would mean there were three pairs of innocents to begin with and three which had a wolf in them. Now we can say that Sally / Glirdy was one of the pairings of innocents - and I know me and Lottie was another. To you the pair, me / Lottie is an unknown of course – but I know now that both of the other two pairs with a dead innocent in them can not be innocent!

To put it plainly: either wilwa or Izzy is a wolf – or they both are. Unless there is a wolf-wolf PM-pair of course.

My problem is that the more I look at it, the less innocent-looking people I see round…

Although I have to say alona’s latest defence felt genuine. I’m torn with her right now: my reason says she must be a wolf but my feelings are confused and willing to believe her. Now what is the part played here by several people saying she’s like that / believing she could actually make such an odd comment, and what is their alignment in the game?

I’ll try to add things up a bit… in a moment. (needs to see first what has happened meanwhile as I see post being made)
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Old 01-17-2010, 02:31 PM   #278
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Looking at the votes again...

Johnny 99 - Nogrod
alona (unknown) x 2 first vote of the Day

City Dude - Inziladun
Lottie (innocent) early vote
Lottie (innocent) putting her into lead over Shasta (unknown) & alona (unknown)

Gypsy Biker - Shasta
(hunter) putting him in front of Glirdy (innocent)
no vote on D2

Bad Scooter - Isabellkya
Shasta (unknown) hasty erred dl-vote
Wilwa (unknown) last minute throw-away vote

Crazy Janey - Alonariel
Morsul (hunter) ties him with Glirdan (innocent)
no vote on D2

Boardwalk Sandy - Sally
Shasta (unknown) forced to tie him with Glirdy (a known innocent to her)
no vote on D2

Jersey Girl - Wilwarin
Sally (seer) an early vote
Shasta (unknown) first vote for him before the last minute rush (only two votes had been given before)

Wendy - Lariren
Shasta (unknown) putting him into lead at the last minute - wrong dl. (tried to retract)
Lottie (innocent) early first vote


Some thoughts to follow - and hopefully in the end trying to add up all the statistics I've tried to gather.
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Old 01-17-2010, 03:16 PM   #279
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So the votes.

Looking at the votes wilwa looks the worst. She voted for Sally early on D1 - which could be seen as a safe move. But her vote and action late on D2 could be read as a prime example how a thoughtful wolf would act - she voted late but before the real action begins so as not to be noticed. Well, I noticed it. But also, she said her reasons were flimsy (even if Izzy pointed out she had declared she had a lot of time in her hands - and one could see her hanging around all through the Day). After her vote she held back - like if she just enjoyed looking at things and didn't think she should take part in discussion. That's the classical wolf-error: when things are going fine you just hang around and look at the things unfolding as long as they go nice from your POV. She only bothered to defend herself when Izzy questioned her "flimsy reasons" - but that showed she was following the discussion!

Lari's first Day retraction trial looked fishy as such. After she learned that the dl was not what she thought (said she thought) she gave a concerned feeling by "retracting" but never then bothered to make an attempt to offer other ideas eg. letting us know whom else she would then have voted. So feeling comfy with how things went (or whom her vote was for), and even more comfy of the fact that no one could say she voted for X or Y? So being totally safe from any speculations as she had both voted but yet not voted - and no one could pin down her original vote as it was a rushed random sort of thing which shev regretted?

Of others Inzil looks bad as he has consistently voted for a known innocent two times - well the very same Lottie. But I'm pretty conscious of the possibility that if alona turns out innocent my record will look the same. If I have time I will look after his posts as I'm a bit uneasy with him but can't pinpoint it down to any detail right now.

Izzy's vote yesterDay looks like a throwaway, voting for a new candidate at the last minute. But there were three people to vote as yet so it's hard to say. An innocent Rikae voted for a new candidate that late as well.

Too many non-voters yesterDay. It blurs the vision.
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Old 01-17-2010, 03:23 PM   #280
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Quote:
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Interestingly the three who didn't vote on D2 were the first to post toDay...
Mainly 'cause I felt bad for not showing up for DL or the latter half of yesterDay.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wilwarin538 View Post
I dislike this vote. Her reasons were that she didn't like Morsul's "out of nowhere" vote for Glirdan, but when he voted he was under the impression that DL was fast approaching, and it was kinda a rush in the moment thing. Lari's vote was the same, but Alona found nothing wrong with it.
Morsul's vote came with him being gone for a majority of Day 1, whereas, when I talked with Lari throughout Day 1, even though she had work, she gave me the impression she'd sifted through the posts and based her vote on that. It was actually Izzy's comment about the DL that sparked her spontaneous vote. And at the time, Glirdan seemed more innocent than Shasta - even though it was Day 1.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wilwarin538 View Post
This whole post bugs me too. I don't really get why she thought she was a logical wolf choice.
Confused here. That who thought who was a logical wolf choice? All I did was use meta game to rule out a few possible wolves, and even that was a bit of a joke.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wilwarin538 View Post
I'm aware this has been mentioned a lot already. Now if Rikae had ended up guilty I would be quite convinced that Alona is too. Rikae being innocent just makes me confused about this. I don't really know...
Like I said, great frame, which makes me think experienced wolves might be playing here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wilwarin538 View Post
Wow I quoted Alona alot....this is weird cause it was pretty obvious Sally was innocent. And it was explained to her a couple times but she still seemed to want to shed doubt on it.
I think Izzy asked about this, too. Basically I saw Inzil's post saying that Sally was the Night target, went with it at the beginning of the Day and then later started to question it while I was talking with Lari about it. My debate with Lottie went well into the early morning for me and I don't think I was thinking quite clearly at the time.
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