WW LX - Mortal Men, doomed to die

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

++Legate

I never liked him anyway. . .

Lommy might have said it was random, but I cannot let the thought go that maybe the special roles where picked after some criteria. Unfortunately I have not been around the werewolf games much or the downs in genneral, so I don't know much about who interacts much or what people have done in ww games.

I could imagine Brinn as a person Lommy would give a special role, maybe Sally as well.

Ok I know this theory has very little merrit, but I just cannot seem to let it go.

[Lhunardawen]

The Eomer voters:

wilwa: Eomer's post in which he speculates on Kath's dead didn't sit well with her, serious misremembering (if such a word exists) of his posts which she later admitted, "I still don't feel too awesome about you. Therefore, I'm just gonna leave it at that."

It's an early vote, so it could be anything, but the reasoning is...odd. Oh well, can't say I never voted based on gut feel myself.

Brinn: gut feeling, he was acting overly defensive and seemed to go after those who suspect or disagree with him.

This is a more sensible (albeit still wrong) vote.

Legate: wraith. no need for this.

Eonwe: to save his "innocent" self

Fair enough, but after posting that joke list shortly before DL I'm inclined to suspect him.


As for the others, I'm still not too sure about Nienna, Rune is present but slipping my radar and this is scary, and sally is most likely my target for tomorrow. YesterDay she had quite a few posts, barely any of which were helpful. And I still find that "no comment" remark she had earlier toDay suspicious.

So what's the technical term for killing your own husband again?

++LEGATE OF AMON LANC

Good night (already morning, actually), everyone.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

So what's the technical term for killing your own husband again?.

It your case, it's regicide.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Lommy might have said it was random, but I cannot let the thought go that maybe the special roles where picked after some criteria. Unfortunately I have not been around the werewolf games much or the downs in genneral, so I don't know much about who interacts much or what people have done in ww games.

No, and now completely truthfully, she randomised the votes totally.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

So what's the technical term for killing your own husband again?

Disgusting.

All right, whatever. It's been nice to play with you all people, really it was I actually remained alive for far longer than I did in the last few games I played. And it's been quite refreshing and enjoyable to play.

I wish you all remaining ones to have a nice rest of the game... and to some of you (but certainly not Nogrod) good luck.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

All right, whatever. It's been nice to play with you all people, really it was .

The pleasure is mutual, your Majesty.

[Nogrod]

My last meeting closed earlier than I feared so I can take part in the last hours at least to read through toDay's posting and trying to give you my views on people.

Sadly I know only the roles of Nerwen and Legate, so of others I can only give you my impressions and suspicions - which are susceptible to be wrong as with anyone. But you'll be able to trust there is no malicious intent there behind my ponderings and that I have no "tactical" reasons to withold any suspicions trying to cover my own life for the Night to come.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I wish you all remaining ones to have a nice rest of the game... and to some of you (but certainly not Nogrod) good luck.

Well, luck will have nothing to do with my death on the coming Night - unless all your mates forget to send the kill to Lommy.


Okay, I'll go back reading what's been happening so far to toDay since I left.

[Eönwë]

Good...erm... evening... to you all.

I don't really like trusting seer reveals too often, so I don't really like the way the village immediately believes him. He could just be a manipulative wolf with a well-though-out case. Werewolf is after all a manipulative game so it's best to be wary.

Nevertheless, I've thought before that something seems a little wrong with Legate this game, and I guess this is our chance to test it (I doubt we could lynch anyone else by now anyway). At least then we will know the identity of at least one wolf (Legate or Nogrod).

And even if Nogrod is a wolf, and the real seer hasn't spoken up yet (and why should they, they're in no danger) then at least the true identity of the seer will be kept hidden and they can continue finding out roles.

However, I am inclined to believe Nogrod, so:

++Legate

edit: x-ed with Nerwen #283 et après- something strange happened to my computer

[satansaloser2005]

Hey, I'm sorry to slack but this day (day, not Day, mind you) turned really sour so I'm not really in the mood to analyze a bunch of stuff. Assuming I'm alive toMorrow and that I'm able to talk more I will give you some hopefully lovely opinions on things, but for now I just need to relax. Sorry again.

My vote is obvious though:


++Legate


You were clever, but not quite clever enough for the seer. Have a nice death.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I think either Sally, Rune or Eonwe would be good choices for a dream toNight, since they seem to have gotten the most attention over the last few Days.

I'll consider your suggestion...

Originally Posted by Rune

If Nogrod really is the seer, then we have both him and Legate with special roles in Lommy's game. . .

You bet that occured to me too at the moment Lommy told me Legate's role... So following that logic you'd be quite right with Brinn and maybe Sally; but then we should also consider you Rune!

Originally Posted by Nilp

Will we have a DAY where little is done save speculate on Nogrod and Legate, and afterwards voting for Legate? Will this not be an aid to those three others who wish to hide in the shadows? Will we waste a DAY given to us by the One in such manner?

Exactly. More could have been done toDay... and more still can be done. Just come forwards people and share your ideas. ToMorrow you need to lynch someone so why not get into it already?

I think I may have found something interesting from Nilp's listings... Just a minute and I'll go back and check.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate's list on Day1

Nienna - despite the first sort of exchange with Nog, I am inclined now to see her behavior as genuine, and not as a particular intention to fly under the radar. Thus, hope to see her posting more in the future: like I said, this far, the picture seems genuine.

Originally Posted by Legate's list on Day2 (omitted from Nilp's version)

Nienna - is basically not around. Now, I would not like to start about that, but I think people who are silent should try not to be that silent anymore, because otherwise nobody is able to read anything about them.

But then after voting three minutes before the DL he thinks it fir to post this at the .00 hours:

Now, one more thing to say - I feel quite somewhat better about Nienna right now, basically because she started to post. People like Shasta though make me slightly uncomfortable

So why did he feel the need to say that as he had never actually said he suspects her or feels bad about her? Just feel-good factor stuff towards Nienna or what? It's hard to believe he'd make that kind of eyebrow-raising comment on his mate at that kind of situation... (eyebrow-raising in a sense that as he'd be found out pretty soon everyone would notice that little bit) Or then again? *drives me crazy*

So yeah, it was interesting but sadly very inconclusive.

[Nogrod]

Oh my. The time is running.

Now where is everyone? *A sudden feeling of dejá-vu*

[Eönwë]

Where is everyone! only 10 minutes to DL!

By the way Noggie, I believe it's "déjà vu"

[Nogrod]

Okay, I said quite a lot about people in my post #252 (on page seven).

Also from toDay I would say that those who were keenest to lynch Legate or to mention how much they trust me are probably the ones you should watch out for the most.

There might have been a sort of incubation period in the beginning of the Day where the wolves looked how the minds of people would develop before taking any real stance *coughSallycough*, but they might have already made a deal during the Night who would rush to back me so that person would look really good later if there was actual skirmishing about the issue - as the truth would be revealed soon enough whichever way toDay's voting would go.

Looked at from that angle...

Sally yes, oddly fades the situation...

Rune looks grumpy and indeed innocentish (or then he is just clecverly waiting for how people will react first before committing himself to either view).

Wilwa is interesting as well:

First, I can't believe how wrong I was about Eomer, I feel so foolish for pursuing him so strongly and then being so terribly wrong.

Secondly, I trust Nogrod. That may seem odd considering that yesterDay I was unsure of him, and very sure of Legate. But I was also very sure of Eomer and was wrong, so....yeah. I'm gonna probably vote Legate.

Looks a bit deliberate to mee if you ask.

Later she still added this (adding then approval for Nienna's idea that this will be safe anyway):

Originally Posted by Wilwa

It seems everyone is trusting Nogrod, which is good.

Nienna sounds at least reasonable:

I think the village would be foolish not to trust Nogrod on this one. If he is not the seer and we kill off an innocent Legate then at least we will know that Nogrod is a wolf and can kill him the next day.

Which sure is no mark of innocence. But it looks pretty good.

Nilp calls us to action and kind of takes the situation for granted. Looks pretty good indeed. But he could pull that.

But Lhuna really raises my eyebrows:

Thanks for that, Nogrod. I trusted in your innocence Day 1, and I'm glad my trust had not been in vain.

A bit overdone?

Brinn looks like pretty safe and cosiderate:

I'm inclined to trust Nogrod, though I still don't really get why he revealed when he did. Was he really that concerned he'd be a potential Night kill? I couldn't see that. Anyway, we'll know the truth soon enough. And if this is wolf-on-wolf, we'll figure it out if Noggie doesn't die or get attacked in the next few Nights.

Which would be perfect for a wolf as well.

Eönwë indeed looks pretty good with all his reservations!


The reason for this little excercise? The wolves know I'm right and they feel some pressure to be on the goiod side of people toMorrow so they might overexaggerate their enthusiasm. But an ordo should be actually a bit suspicious about things going this smoothly (I would be at least).


Try to cross-examine these with fex. how Eomer suspicions were born, kept up and deepened yesterDay and look if you see the same people in similar kind of roles.

And check yesterDay's voting, especislly the last suspicions & votes (and discrepancies within them) - and add them to these two issues.

Something could be found from there.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

By the way Nggie, I believe it's "déjà vu"

You maybe right. Something looked wrong there...

Well, even if no one's around (except Eönwë), good night and good luck!

It was fun as long as it lasted.

I'll be holding my thumb to you from the tomb!

Have fun!

[Thinlómien]

Stop posting. Legate was lynched and the narration is coming in five minutes...

[Thinlómien]

Captain Nogrod had everybody's undivided attention when he told about the visions he had received in his sleep. ”Queen Nerwen – good, King Legate – no good,” he explained. ”Nogrod no good,” Legate grumbled, but no one quite believed his claims of innocence and insistences that Nogrod must be lying.

So, when the night drew closer, the guests were one-minded about who should go. Even Legate's wife, Queen Lhuna was happy to advocate the death of her husband. ”So what's the technical term for killing your own husband again? ” she asked in a sweet voice. ”Regicide,” said Nerwen. ”Disgusting,” said Legate.

”So, how shall we kill him?” asked Eönwë.
”I think we should go for the democratic model – everybody can take a dagger and stab the murderer,” said Rune.
”Let's just get it done,” sighed Sally.

Some of the guests drew daggers of their own, and a few went to the kitchen to find heavy kitchen knives.

Legate looked at the dozen people surrounding him, a small sea of short blades glimmering in the light of the setting sun. A small sea of pitifully short blades. He laughed. ”Am I to die like this?” He shook his head. ”Stabbed by twelve people, some of them wielding kitchen knives?” He laughed again. ”I always had my enemies, but I expected to die on the battlefield with a sword in my hand... how naive of me, I see that now.” With a smooth move, he drew a sword that had been cleverly hidden in his clothes. The blade was long, elegant and slightly curved... several people were gasping for air when they recognised it as one of the swords that had been left by the table with Lady Lómiel's body.

”You will not kill me like that!” Legate said. ”Truly, I am not any random petty king whom you can displace as you will, I am the greatest king and the most powerful warrior in all of the southern lands and I will have eternal glory! Is there anyone who dares to fight me in a duel? Or are you all cowards?”

There were angry murmurs, and before anyone else could react, Captain Nogrod stood up. He drew his cutlass and eyed King Legate viciously. ”Aye, I will fight you and kill you and cut that pitiful babbling about your own excellence!”

Reluctantly, others made way and the two paced around, swinging their blades and keeping close eye contact. Then Legate struck. The blow was easily parried by Nogrod. Then Nogrod struck and Legate parried. Striking, parrying, striking, parrying, nothing seemed to happen. Until Legate hit Nogrod's blade so hard that the pirate captain dropped it. With a malicious grin, the Haradian aimed a vicious blow at the direction of his unprotected enemy.

”Noooooooo!” cried the warlord Groin. ”Let me die instead!” And with a terrible speed, he dashed between the two fighters and Legate's blade hit him instead Nogrod, cutting deep into his stomach. Meanwhile, Nogrod used the distraction to his advance, picked his cutlass and attacked Legate again. Too late the rebelling king realised his sword was stuck on Groin and he had nothing to lift in between himself and Nogrod's cutlass. He fell with the strength of Nogrod's blow and lay on the floor, a pool of blood forming around him.

”There... will be... revenge,” he managed to say before drawing his last breath.

To their horror, the others saw his body vanish into thin air as if it had never been: only a pile of clothes remained. There was terrible cry piercing the air and a cold wind in the hall.

They had got rid of one enemy, but no one felt like cheering.

”I say we go to sleep,” Nerwen said after a while.
”Yeah, good idea,” Nienna agreed.
”What about poor Groin?” Brinniel asked.
”He seems pretty dead,” Lhuna said. ”Let's have the housekeeper take care of him and that... pile of rugs.”

~*~

Dead
Lommy (mod) - Lady Lómiel Starbrow, the hostess – killed on Night1
Isabellkya (ordo) - lynched on Day1
Kath (ordo) – killed on Night2
Eomer of the Rohirrim (ordo) - lynched on Day2
Kent2010 (ordo) - Black Númenórean scam artist - killed on Night3
Legate of Amon Lanc (ringwraith) - rebelling Haradian King - lynched on Day3
Groin Redbeard (ordo) - Variag Warlord of Khand - modfired on Day3

Alive
Nienna - pirate
Nogrod - Corsair Captain "The Cat O' Nine tails of Ethir Anduin"
Shastanis Althreduin - King of the Sea
wilwarin538 - sorceress
Nerwen - Queen of the Sea
Nilpaurion Felagund - fussy courtier
Rune Son of Bjarne - Tivo the Sorceror
Lhunardawen - rebelling Haradian Queen
satansaloser2005
Eönwë
Brinniel

It's Night4 now. Ringwraiths, you may plot. RW's and gifteds, you may send me your picks.

[Thinlómien]

Tonight, there were only three of them in the salon.

”Do you feel any different?” one of them asked after a long silence.
”A bit more lonesome,” another replied. No one laughed at the feeble joke.

There was another silence.

”I don't like this,” the first speaker said. ”I feel as if I wasn't in total control of all my thoughts... I'm losing grasp of reality. The world seems hazy and only at night everything seems sharp... almost too sharp. And...”
”Enough,” said the third cloaked figure, shifting uncomfortably in his chair.

A third silence.

”So, who shall we kill tonight?” asked the one who had attempted a joke earlier.
”I have a brilliant idea,” said the first speaker, grinning.
”I think we know...” said the third speaker, grinning back.

~*~

In the morning, the guests walked downstairs again. To their surpise, they saw Lord Thinroz sitting at the table. ”Good morning,” he said. ”Again somebody missing, is there?” he asked and laughed grimly.

They looked around. Everybody seemed to be there. Except... ”Where's my Nilp?” asked Sally. At the very same moment, the housekeeper appeared a doorstep, her face pale, holding a blood-stained pillow.

”He's gone, I'm afraid,” Brinn concluded.

~*~

Dead
Lommy (mod) - Lady Lómiel Starbrow, the hostess – killed on Night1
Isabellkya (ordo) - lynched on Day1
Kath (ordo) – killed on Night2
Eomer of the Rohirrim (ordo) - lynched on Day2
Kent2010 (ordo) - Black Númenórean scam artist - killed on Night3
Legate of Amon Lanc (ringwraith) - rebelling Haradian King - lynched on Day3
Groin Redbeard (ordo) - Variag Warlord of Khand - modfired on Day3
Nilpaurion Felagund (ordo) - fussy courtier - killed on Night4

Alive
Nienna - pirate
Nogrod - Corsair Captain "The Cat O' Nine tails of Ethir Anduin"
Shastanis Althreduin - King of the Sea
wilwarin538 - sorceress
Nerwen - Queen of the Sea
Rune Son of Bjarne - Tivo the Sorceror
Lhunardawen - rebelling Haradian Queen
satansaloser2005
Eönwë
Brinniel

Day4 has started. Everybody, you may discuss. Hunter, you may change your pick if you wish.

[satansaloser2005]

Nilp! My sweet, darling husband! *weeps* Okay, that tears it. For him to not only die, but to die at the hands of his sister, is just too much to bear.



I'll do a vote count in a bit, but first an announcement. Stay tuned.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, so here's what I know.

Brinn: innocent
Nog: innocent
Legate: wolf
Lhuna: wolf



Everything should be in order, and if you have questions feel free to ask. First, an explanation....



I appreciate Noggie's devotion the last Day or so, and imagine my surprise when he posts and says that he's dreamt Legate! However, since I already knew he was innocent and that Legate was in fact a wolf I didn't want to say anything to the contrary. That was of course the reason for my hesitation though, and I'm saying something toDay because:
A: I'm not sure how long the entire fake seer thing (handy though it was) can last
B: since Lhuna's now confirmed as a wolf as well as Legate, I think it's worth the risk
C: hopefully there will be some confusion about who to kill, since it's possible that they may not know who to believe (for example, it's possible that I'm faking instead of Noggie)
D: I'm stressed because of finals and frankly I'd rather like to get the stress of all the secrecy off my system. Besides, if I die I'll have more time for finals. Also, I've been rather skittish (as you all know I am when I have a role) and I'm afraid if I don't say something now you won't believe me later. Besides, at least now I can impart some knowledge to you before I (or Nog, though preferrably neither) go.

[Nogrod]

What the...!!!

These wolves keep on making surprises...

Wilwa is innocent.

I'm going to watch the ice-hockey game to the end but will then be around for more.

EDIT: X'd with Sally's second post...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Wilwa is innocent.

I'm of much the same opinion. Great minds and all that.

[Nogrod]

This is getting weird indeed... Very much so.

The wolves play a very intricicate game I see.

Back soon.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I too am the seer, but I have dreamt of my self every night. . . well, and about Jean Claude Van Damme once, but that was not intentional.

Seriously guys, you are making my head hurt. . . I am at a total loss.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

I too am the seer, but I have dreamt of my self every night. . . well, and about Jean Claude Van Damme once, but that was not intentional.

Seriously guys, you are making my head hurt. . . I am at a total loss.

Oh, really? I tried to dream of him and didn't get a PM back from Lommie. What's his role?

*hugs you*

Don't worry, I'll make it all better, dearie.


Speaking of which, I'll be here for the next hour or two but after that I'll be gone for several hours. Just as an FYI.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

*reappears from the closet*

No, I'm the Seer.

...What do you mean you don't believe me?

...In any case, I'm back. *goes to find something to post about*

[Nogrod]

Sorry this took so long. I was distracted by an interesting radio program... but no one seems to be around anyway...

Where are you guys? *one more déjà vu*

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Seriously guys, you are making my head hurt. . . I am at a total loss.

Just check my avvie... I have kind of thought whether I should change it back to some more traditional "Nogrod-avvie" but now I think I have to keep it. *My brain hurts*


So maybe you Sally are now trying to sway the baddies off me by volunteering to be a seer toDay... That is indeed the tactics I hoped the baddies would think about me in relation to Lhuna yesterDay, even if I never actually believed the wolves would bite that (well I tried to overdo my seerness and the fact I was not going to be with you players any more to raise their suspicions that I was actually faking it but I never believed it would work).


But did you baddies after all belive I was actually an ordo protecting Lhuna (my dream come true!!!)? That would explain the boldness you Sally came forwards at the first moments of the Day.

Well, there you made a mistake because I am actually the seer indeed. And now the ranger may help me the Night to come.

But why didn't you kill Lhuna then? Back to that in a moment...


Well, if you and your friends had a better plan - which I think highly probable - you still made a mistake proposing that Lhuna is a wolf. It's not a question of who you claim is a wolf; it's that you claim you know a wolf when you just can't know it.

If you try to dress as a seer and you're just a plain ordo you can't say someone is a wolf. Really. If people will believe in you they will kill that someone you can't know who s/he is. An innocent would not do that in her first (well, second) post of the Day if she was just pretending to be the seer.

Now you actually "gave us a wolf" meaning you were ready to get her lynched if we believed you. So as there could be a possibility people believed in you (as there is no cobbler-role involved) then Lhuna must be a wolf in the end? Otherwise your plan would backfire immediately.

I know not what Lhuna is, but I know you can't know it either as I'm the seer and you're not - unless you're a wolf and she is one as well.


*Goddammit, I wawered between Sally and Wilwa (and Brinn) for my seemingly insignificant dream and ended up with Wilwa after a choice of a minute... thinking that the strong previous reactions to her might tell something. Had I just checked you Sally instead!*


So sorry Sally. You must be a wolf now or a very-very clumsy innocent. Being totally clumsy is the only explanation I can find for your "reveal" if you're not a ringwraith. And I don't believe you to be the first one.

And especially if you'd nevertheless be that clumsy, you wouldn't have never thought of playing the mirror-image of the phantasy I had the wolves could think I was doing with Lhuna and play the "false-seer" in that way... and to try to lure the baddies onto yourself with that - and being confident enough to pick Lhuna as a baddie to go for it. And somehow your culprit - of all the people around just happened to be Lhuna!

That's not the thinking of a clumsy player!

And it's pretty near to the scenario where you would have tried to make one of you two to look innocent making us believe that the one staying alive after another one was dead must be innocent!

So if you're a wolf indeed, then I will really start suspecting Lhuna... But I'd start with you Sally first.


Happily you put me into the category of an innocent, as trying to rub me the right way? Well that was a bad move. I was not impressed by you calling me an innocent. And your scheme will backfire as from now on you can't try to argue I'm a baddie during this Day (or any other) even if I jump on you or Lhuna as you've already claimed me innocent by your "dream"...

... just wondering whether it would be possible you really didn't think of that...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

If Nogrod is the seer, then what sense does it make for the wraiths to leave him alive? Obviously it would be lovely for them to watch as we lynched our own seer, but still. . .

Of course Nogrod could be a wraith, with their relatively high numbers they could definitly afford to sacrifice one in order to draw out the seer. (but obviously then non of them would be the seer)

Then there is the chance of Sally being an ordo trying to draw attention away from the seer, but what kind of sense would that make?

What I am trying to say is this: the more I think about this situation the less sense it makes.

[Nogrod]

I needed to check the rules as I became a bit insecure.

But there is only one seer in this game.

So sorry Sally. You can't be one as I'm the one.

Also as you say you have one baddie it means you can't be a goodie trying to "fake the seer" to protect me as an ordo would not fake being sure who to kill.

I will not vote for you just now as I will have time tomorrow to look at how things are going but I will strongly advice you being lynched.

But you people should post indeed! What is this?

Also your suggestion Sally that Lhuna is a wolf bears to be marked down as if you're a ringwraith it might be Lhuna is one as well. Otherwise your act would be plain suicidal.


Hey Rune, you seem to address just the same question I'm trying to cope with. And btw. this is not the first instance the wolves have tried to baffle us...

But what you say about numbers... I think that might be important indeed. I thought of going to sleep but maybe I'll give it a time to check the scenarios...

[wilwarin538]

Wow, uhm, just popping in quickly, I'll be able to read everything more thorougly later on.

Just wanted to say one thing. Perhaps Lommy messed with the roles without telling us, just to cause the confusion, so added a second seer? Or perhaps there is a wolf-seer?? Or someone who knows the seer's dreams?

I don't know, it's so weird.....I'll be back a little later to look at everything far closer.

[Nogrod]

Okay, here's the deal from my point of view...

Known innocents:
Nogrod - the seer
wilwarin538 - ordo
Nerwen - ordo

Unknown (three of whom be wolves and including the ranger & the hunter):
Nienna
Shastanis Althreduin
Rune Son of Bjarne
Lhunardawen - a wolf by implication?
satansaloser2005 - lying eg. a wolf?
Eönwë
Brinniel

But the basic numbers are now 7-3


The worst case scenario:

We miss toDay = 6-3
Ranger doesn't get it during the Night = 5-3
We miss the lynch toMorrow = 4-3
Ranger misses at Night = Game over.

The best scenario:

We lynch a wolf toDay = 7-2
Ranger protects me = 7-2 (or 6-2 if the wolves continue their line - but then there should be added one more known innocent or a wolf)
We lynch another wolf = 7-1 (6-1)
etc...


Okay. I can see now why the wolves are ready to play it "all or nothing" as the scenarios are like live and die within two Days/Nights.

Funny: it looked like our odds were really bad in then beginning - and I had the feeling of us being against the wall all the time - but looking at the numbers we're looking pretty good right now - if we just pick one toDay.

And with all the probabilities the ranger can save me the next Night as well so even if we miss toDay we will have 6(5)-3 tomorrow with either two known innocents and a wolf - or three known innocents. And that is going to ease our voting a lot.

So I just need to pull my act together and start delivering. But even if I can't do it, the growing numbers of innocents will make our choices better.

But we should start with a lynch that goes to the right address toDay.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally is the type of person who would do exactly as she's doing now as a bored Ordo, attempting to protect the person she thought was the Seer. Nogrod, I think you're being overly paranoid.

In any case, whether or not Sally is lying, Lhuna is a wolf. It's clear we need to lynch her today.

Given that I'm just now getting back into the swing of things, can anyone tell me exactly what time the deadline is (aka: how many hours I have to vote?)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Perhaps Lommy messed with the roles without telling us, just to cause the confusion, so added a second seer? Or perhaps there is a wolf-seer?? Or someone who knows the seer's dreams?

I don't think so. I think Lommy said quite plainly that this will be an ordinary (or basic) game. At least I'm counting on that as that was the information we were given.

I hope you Wilwa have time toDay as you're a known innocent. So everyone can trust there's no malice in your analysis or any thoughts you give.


We should be able to pull this one out!

Any unknown innocent (4 of them) can now pick a wolf from 3/6 eg. ½ probability!

The three "known" innocents to make the very same choice from 3/7 which is only slightly less.

The three wolves have their three votes of course... and they may try to twist our ideas. And they know when to add their votes together if they think they need to do it... which we can't ever do trusting each other as they can.

So we should be able to win but it will require some effort.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Given that I'm just now getting back into the swing of things, can anyone tell me exactly what time the deadline is (aka: how many hours I have to vote?)

It would be something like 19 hours from now... (the Day started about 5 hours ago)

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by wilwa

Just wanted to say one thing. Perhaps Lommy messed with the roles without telling us, just to cause the confusion, so added a second seer?

Indeed. I can just see that evil Lommy giggling behind the computer screen at all of us (or trying to suppress giggles if she happens to be at Noggie's place).

But really this is quite confusing. Who's telling the truth? And are both of them innocent?

If Sally is the truthful one, then both are innocent and we should lynch Lhuna. If Noggie is the real seer, then he is innocent, but Sally could go either way.

If Sally is a wolf, this is a pretty risky move the wolves are playing. Because if Lhuna is a wolf, she is sacrificing a mate, and if Lhuna turns up innocent then Sally would surely expect herself to be a goner once Lhuna was lynched.

Yet if one is an ordo playing a seer, that's also a risky move which can backfire. Because if Noggie were an ordo, that was a very lucky guess he made about Legate, and if Sally is an ordo, then she also is really taking a chance calling Lhuna a wolf when she can't know for sure. And although an ordo may think it's a clever move to make a false claim in order to distract the wolves, it becomes even more confusing to the villagers.

There aren't any cobblers in this game, are there?

Of the three, I'd say Noggie looks the most innocent since if either claim is accurate than he isn't a wolf, and anyway, I'm more likely to believe him. So the question lies between Lhuna and Sally. I say it'd probably be best to lynch one of them toDay because it's more likely a wolf is among the two and also the death of either of them is more likely to answer questions than if we were to lynch anyone else. The question is, which one?

Why didn't Nogrod die? I thought it was odd at first, but I'm guessing the wolves worried that the ranger didn't protect him the Night before and would last Night. If Sally's a wolf, it wouldn't make sense to keep him alive in order to make her claim because if she were to do that, then surely she wouldn't have confirmed Noggie to be innocent in order to add to the confusion.

I suppose Nogrod could be a wolf in the scenario that he sacrificed Legate, then an ordo Sally made a false claim and under the assumption he was actually telling the truth, added him to her dream list. But that's a bit of a stretch.

Now, if Sally and Nogrod both turn out to be wolves playing some sort of game, I'd have to applaud them for putting on such a show. Of course that doesn't seem quite likely either, but if there are any third seers out there, do make your claim now.

Anyway, let's hope there's no more modfire since with the numbers we have right now, it seems we only have toDay to get this wrong before game over...so I'd rather get it right.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Shasta

In any case, whether or not Sally is lying, Lhuna is a wolf. It's clear we need to lynch her today.

If Sally is lying, how is Lhuna still definitely a wolf?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Sally is the type of person who would do exactly as she's doing now as a bored Ordo, attempting to protect the person she thought was the Seer. Nogrod, I think you're being overly paranoid.

Why would she then claim Lhuna is a wolf if she doesn't know it? Any ideas Shasta? Why didn't she say X is innocent or take anyone already dead innocent to be one of her "dreams"? Why is she for lynching someone she is not sure of if an innocent - weith the false pretext of being the seer?

Originally Posted by Shasta

In any case, whether or not Sally is lying, Lhuna is a wolf. It's clear we need to lynch her today.

Now do you have a reason for your claim? Why should Lhuna be lynched?

EDIT:X'd with Brinn X2

[Nienna]

I'm epically confused.

I'm also not going to be around hardly at all toDay. I'll be back in the morning my time to read anything new and then I will have to vote then.

First a question:

Sally are you the seer? If so why would you reveal if Nog was doing so well by himself?

[Nogrod]

OMG I'm so much afraid of you Brinn...

You could be the one masterminding all of this (especially with Legate)! But you speak sense as you always do.

You're so smooth and reasonable... and you speak sense.


But anyway, as I'm going to sleep now my top candidates at the moment would be Sally, Shasta and Lhuna... in that order.

I hope I'll be having something to add to my thoughts on all of you as I come back later.

= please post people! It's not nice if just a few post!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Sally are you the seer? If so why would you reveal if Nog was doing so well by himself?

Read the thread Nienna... it might help you to figure out the possibilities...

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Read the thread Nienna... it might help you to figure out the possibilities...

I've read the thread... and think I know all the possibilities but my problem most lies with the fact that Sally never openly stated that she was in fact the seer. She made a seer dream list and said who was guilty and who was innocent so far and she said she has a role but she did not say what that role was. By reading her post it can be inferred that she is the Seer but I would believe her more if she said openly that she is the seer. Does that make sense?

I've been getting evil vibes from Sally for some time now and I've been keeping my eyes on her but a seer reveal now seems like it would be too risky for one of the wolves.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

What Lhuna Said:

#34 - Recommends keeping Eomer alive. Wishy-washy about Nogrod. Has bad feelings about Legate.

#62 - Says that Nogrod and Eomer feel "genuinely innocent". Thinks Legate is "saying too much, and not being too careful about it". Also thinks I'm suspicious, calling my vote for Nogrod "safe". Considers Sally's reaction to being voted by Brinn "suspicious". Thinks Nerwen seems alright.

#64 - Votes Legate.

#265 - Praises Nogrod. Considers Sally quite suspicious for holding her thoughts.

#268 - Argues with Nogrod about why she hasn't been killed. Points out that the wolves might have implicated themselves if they'd killed her. Reiterates her innocence.

#282 - Analyzes the Eomer voters. Thinks Wilwa was odd, Brinn more sensible, Legate pointless, and suspects Eonwe. Unsure about Nienna, thinks Rune is under her radar, and will be targeting Sally. Votes Legate.

What was said about Lhuna:

#39 - Brinn won't vote for Lhuna as she hasn't played in a while.

#44 - Legate thinks she should "learn her place" and would like to see more from her than one-liners.

#49 - Rune has Lhuna on his list.

#53 - Eomer thinks she seems "a bit sneaky".

#81 - Nogrod thinks that Lhuna could be "a wolf playing it consistently & intelligently", but thinks she deserves to play more than those innocents who do nothing (don't think I didn't catch that, Nog.)

#86 - Izzy has no idea about Lhuna.

#101 - Eomer, on Lhuna's vote: "thats' ok."

#137 - Wilwa thinks Lhuna is consistent, and is not getting any overly negative vibes.

#147 - Eomer thinks Lhuna vote was sensible, calls her a potential smart Wraith.

#152 - Wilwa is okay with Lhuna.

#153 - Rune gets a generally innocent feel from Lhuna based on her second post.

#185 - Nerwen notes that the continued existence of Lhuna could point away from Nogrod as a Wraith.

#189 - Sally is "still" getting bad vibes from Lhuna. Huh?

#199 - Nilp thinks Lhuna is "probably innocent".

#211 - Eonwe thinks Lhuna suspicious (I think that's what he's saying, anyway)

#217 - Nienna has no idea about Lhuna.

#227 - Eomer thinks of Lhuna: "allright, I suppose"

#235 - Eonwe says that Lhuna is being quiet.

#252 - Nogrod entertains the possibility of Lhuna being a Wraith since she's not dead.

#260 - Nerwen; same thing.

#293 - Nogrod thinks Lhuna's praise of him is overdone.

#299 - Sally calls Lhuna out as a wolf.

#310 - Nogrod considers Lhuna a "wolf by implication"... which makes me wonder why he's so keen to vote for Sally instead. Why vote a possible wolf when you already admit you have a probable wolf?