Tol-in-Gaurhoth LI: The Pain of Wargs

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Gaunt

I wonder then if the two wargs are some combination of Gwath, Gollum and Kath?

Assuming Gollum is one (not that I necessarily am assuming that), then his recent list of remaining players that he thought were innocent and guilty would suggest that he and Kath are the wolves, because he listed Kath as probably innocent and Gwath as potentially suspicious. Unless it is some sort of bluff.

And by "wargs," you mean...the good wargs or the bad wargs? Because we're all technically wargs.

[Gaunt]

After some more research, Gwath voted Kath on the first day, and Kath voted Gollum. Thus, unless one of these votes was intended to throw off anyone who pursued the line of investigation I am now pursuing (which seems unlikely), I hypothesize that the two remaining werewolves are Gwath and Gollum

[Gaunt]

In answer, Gwath, where I put wargs I meant wolves

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Gaunt

After some more research, Gwath voted Kath on the first day

That was a random vote.

YesterDay, Legate certainly did go after Gollum a bit. My initial reaction was "Ah ha! Legate is bad, so Gollum must be innocent, splendid!" Gollum had introduced the idea and I was happy to pick up on it. But, of course, that theory assumes that Legate as Manwe would have been aware of the identity of the traitor-wargs, and that he was not simply trying to throw us off. Gollum was very happy and quick to bring this up after Legate's death; it is common for the bad guys to suspect each other in order that should one of them die and be revealed, the other will appear innocent.

I am now reconsidering voting for Gollum.

[Diamond18]

Must vote now. Interesting posts overnight -- it's good to hear from Gaunt. Since Gollum, Gaunt, and Gwath were my three choices for voting previously I'm going to go with:

++Gollum

Must dash.

[Thinlómien]

I was afraid I'd only find a couple of posts when I come back, but I'm glad it is not so. There have been interesting points...

Originally Posted by Diamond

In fact the quieter the village gets the easier it is for me to actually participate.

Well, something good in that too, then... My apologies if I was a little rude ealier toDay, I was a little tired and annoyed and I can't still say I'm very happy with how this village has been acting this far, but I'm positive it can get better.

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Is it likely that the pairs of werewolves mentioned in Eomer's prophecy are meant to describe competing pairs of werewolves? I.e. It was Melkor's mission to kill Manwe and vice versa, and that when Legate (Manwe) was lynched by the Warg vote Brinniel's mission as Melkor was complete so she left the game.

Actually, could be. Why not? I just can't see what purpose would it serve... I mean, if the baddies just aim to attack each other, what is our role in it? Innocent casualties? Not very encouraging...

Originally Posted by Gaunt

I think the wolf kills on night 3 and 4 can be explained, but I still wasn't sure about Kitanna. Looking back, at one stage she suspected Samwise, Gollum and Gwath, but voted for Kath.
I wonder then if the two wolves are some combination of Gwath, Gollum and Kath?

Hmm, would you like to elaborate how can the kills of 3 and 4 be explained? I mean, I do a gree, but I'd like to hear your take on it.
As for Kitanna, I think it's too hasty to assume people she suspected were wolves. I don't think there's anything that necessarily points at that. If we are to analyse kills or dead people's words thoroughly, I suggest looking at Rune. I already did, but surely it wouldn't hurt to have other interpretations. I might have missed something, or I could be trying to mislead you.

And concerning Shasta - he dropped out of the game.

[Thinlómien]

Nobody but me around...?

Well, I will probably vote either Gollum or Gwath toDay, although I could vote Gaunt or Diamond too if it came to deciding between one of them and myself or Kath and Mith whom I believe innocent based on Rune's words.

As I have time and it's not a big job, I wonder if I should read thorugh all the posts Gollum, Gwath, Gaunt and Di and see if I have anything more to say after that...

[Gaunt]

Thinlomien,

Having thought more about it since my original post that that you quoted, here is my complete theory (at present) on the setup of this game.

When the game began, there were two werewolves, working in collaboration to decide who to kill. They chose Kitanna, then Nogrod, then Rune.

On the third night, Manwe and Melkor were introduced. Now, I can only imagine Brinniel and Legate did not know they were to become these characters from the beginning, and were only told on the third night - both characters would be needed for the idea to work, and if they had been told from the beginning then one or both of them could have been lynched or killed by wolves, and it would have caused problems.

Now, as to the problem of why there would be two characters placed there only to kill each other off, i think it may be that Manwe was to act as wolf, and it was Melkor's job to track him down. This, I guess, would have become more obvious if Manwe had actually had the chance to make a wolf-kill - but through good fortune he was voted off before he did.

Hence, through chance, both of these characters were gone almost as soon as they came on the scene, leaving us with only the original two wolves.

However, as I write this some ideas have sprung to mind: perhaps, had the vote not taken out Manwe, both of these characters would have behaved like wolves, but wolves who were trying to find one other wolf - a game within a game with each of their unsuccessful guesses taking out villagers as collateral damage. I did ask myself: how would they be able to distinguish between the other wolves and their opponent? But the answer to this ties in with what I have already said: they would be looking for someone who had become a wolf on the third night, like themselves, so they would be looking for a change in behaviour from that point. In fact, this seems more plausible than the Manwe as wolf and Melkor out to track him down theory.

In answer to your question as to why Nogrod and Rune were killed: Nogrod had targeted Gollum, and generally seemed to be onto what now appears to be the type of game the werewolves are playing. As for Rune, I will have to study his posts more, but my general impression was that he was quite prominent in the posts and must have come up with some insights that were troubling the wolves.

[Gollum the Great]

I seem to be a prime target for most of the village.

Those who seem to suspect me:

Gaunt
Lommy
Gwath
Diamond


Mith has said nothing which regards me today and Kath has not spoken yet.

[Thinlómien]

Gaunt, I think your theory makes quite a lot of sense. I'm impressed. Of course we cannot know, but that's the first theory I've heard that makes any sense this far. So, our goal would now be finding two wolves that are fellows together and have no other ties?

Now, however, I would think differently about Nogrod's and Rune's deaths. I have no real idea why Nogrod was killed, but I think Rune was killed either for looking like a seer (which he was) or because no one except Gwath really suspected him.

[Kath]

Gaunt has popped up with some really interesting theories. I'm agreeing with his idea about Manwe and Melkor, it really seems to make sense. I'm not sure how worthwhile it is basing his arguments on Kitanna's posts since she had no additional knowledge but he does seem to be working things out very logically. Oh, and on second look, he's actually basing that logic on why the wolves might have killed her rather than what she said.

I went and had a look back over Rune's post and think I found the comment that anyone looking out for a Seer would have picked up on. He mentioned leaving trails, not something ordinary innocents tend to worry about. It was subtle, but obviously a wolf would be looking for it.

Lommy's little ... snit was interesting. Perhaps just tiredness and annoyance about Legate disappearing. But it was a little over the top. I mean, complaining about the villagers getting rid of the loud players when it's the wolves who killed Nog, the loudest player, and the Seer. Ok we did a bad job with lynching the Guardian on the first Day but hey, we just got a bad guy yesterDay! Come on Lommy, optimism!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Lommy's little ... snit was interesting. Perhaps just tiredness and annoyance about Legate disappearing.

Originally Posted by Kath

But it was a little over the top. I mean, complaining about the villagers getting rid of the loud players when it's the wolves who killed Nog, the loudest player, and the Seer.

I was merely saying that it looked like the wolves were just as pitiful as the innocents...

Originally Posted by Kath

Ok we did a bad job with lynching the Guardian on the first Day but hey, we just got a bad guy yesterDay! Come on Lommy, optimism!

Actually, I'm feeling relatively optimistic now. All the discussion that was going on while I was away and Gaunt's theory that makes sense have made me have more faith. And despite some drawbacks, I'm actually enjoying this game. So, no problem.

[Gaunt]

Ok, I have to go home now so won't be on again today.

Here's how I think the rest of the game will go:

Hopefully tonight Gollum will be voted off, as between him and Gwath I am more confident of his status as a wolf.

Then I predict the surviving wolf will kill either myself or Thinlomien.

Hopefully though, the villagers will be convinced enough to then vote Gwath, thus rooting out the two wolves and winning the game.

Now this all assumes my suspicions of Gollum and Gwath are correct. Now it is possible, but I think doubtful, that one of the wolves is Kath. If Kath votes for Gwath rather than Gollum, or indeed anyone else rather than Gollum, I think this possibility remains open, but Gwath is still more likely.

It may be because he has not been on much, but Gollum has offered pretty much nothing in defence against strong suspicions directed at him.

Of course, I could be completely wrong!

All said, tonight I am voting for:

++Gollum

[Gollum the Great]

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Hopefully tonight Gollum will be voted off, as between him and Gwath I am more confident of his status as a wolf

From Legate to Lommy to Gaunt!

It may be because he has not been on much, but Gollum has offered pretty much nothing in defence against strong suspicions directed at him.

I think I said previously that I have trouble stating the reasons for my suspicions, and I possess the same issue regarding my defence.

Of course, I could be completely wrong!

Believe me, you are.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I had a quick look at Gwath, Di, Gaunt and Golly. Didn't find much.

Originally Posted by Gwath

Hello Diamond18.
EDIT: We haven't heard from Gaunt yet toDay, have we? Gaunt? You there

Yet this sounds like Gwath is not a fellow of Diamond's (he would be more careful of doing anything as random as greeting her) but could be one of Gaunt's (the careless way he mentions him).

The four hardly mention each other, and when they do, it's nothing noteworthy (except maybe that one Gwath-comment). Gollum and Gwath still strike me as more suspicious than Di and Gaunt.

But more will be clear when we know the role of even one of them.


edit: xed with Gollum

[Mithalwen]

I hpe Gaunt is inspired rather than manipulative. Can't help not entirely trusting someone who has a clue what is going on...

[Kath]

If Kath votes for Gwath rather than Gollum, or indeed anyone else rather than Gollum, I think this possibility remains open, but Gwath is still more likely.

Oh Gaunt! Why did you have to say that? It makes me feel like a child with a big red button, all you want to do is press it to see what happens ... or in this case vote away from Gollum.

But no, I have been very impressed by your reasoning toDay and am inclined to trust you. You aren't the only person to have been suspicious of Gollum either, there has been on/off suspicion of him quite a bit over the Days. I did intend to go back and look at him myself but we were catching up on weekend TV and I ran out of time a bit. I do need to vote now though so:

++GOLLUM

[Thinlómien]

Huh, pretty silent here and only 25 minutes to go anymore... and the lynch looks rather unanimous this far, which is always a bad thing... and I must admit I too suspect Gollum the most... but not much more than Gwath. Hmmm...

[Mithalwen]

It seems that I have lost my voice metaphorically as well as literally. I am struggling with this one and am finding hard to concentrate. But the fact is that of the people remaining the only person who I have suspected at all is Lommie but everyone else seems to assume she is out of the frame.

Don't see what is so suspicious about Gollum - he is a bit self obsessed but a lot of people are ... especially when new..... really have to decide soon as I am shivering too much to type properly...

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Ok, I have to go home now so won't be on again today.

Here's how I think the rest of the game will go:

Hopefully tonight Gollum will be voted off, as between him and Gwath I am more confident of his status as a wolf.

Then I predict the surviving wolf will kill either myself or Thinlomien.

Hopefully though, the villagers will be convinced enough to then vote Gwath, thus rooting out the two wolves and winning the game.

EDIT: Crossed with Lommy and Mith

Now this all assumes my suspicions of Gollum and Gwath are correct. Now it is possible, but I think doubtful, that one of the wolves is Kath. If Kath votes for Gwath rather than Gollum, or indeed anyone else rather than Gollum, I think this possibility remains open, but Gwath is still more likely.

It may be because he has not been on much, but Gollum has offered pretty much nothing in defence against strong suspicions directed at him.

Of course, I could be completely wrong!

All said, tonight I am voting for:

++Gollum

You are far too certain of yourself, Gaunt. The odds are slim that you could deduce one out of two wolves, but it can be done. However, nailing both of them with one fell swoop of logic is nigh on impossible.

Besides, conspicuous lack of participation is a terrible strategy if BOTH werewolves are going to employ it. Silence can be a clever shield, but only if done in such a way that one does not attract attention. Attention gets you killed in Werewolf.

I'm watching you toMorrow, Gaunt. I don't like your self-assurance (maybe it's just too reminiscent of the phantom ), but I'm going to hope that it's the first game syndrome. I was the same way.

I am suspicious of Gollum, but I can't help feeling that traitors have been overlooked. I also don't feel that enough evidence has been built up against him; but GtheG has evidently become toDay's default vote (read in cynical tone), and he's the only player I have given any real thought to. No shots in the dark toDay, I'm playing it safe.

++Gollum

[Thinlómien]

Okay... let's make this a little more interesting...

++Gwath


edit: xed with Mith and Gwath

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I hpe Gaunt is inspired rather than manipulative. Can't help not entirely trusting someone who has a clue what is going on...

Well, we can't discount the option of him being a bluffing wolf, but I like his theory too much. Or then he is a wolf who is telling the truth.

[Mithalwen]

Events have overtaken me ..... so since for once I am reasonably comfortable with Kath add something to the mix....

Bit mean since I have been even quieter but she is soooooooo cunning

++Diamond 18

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Well, we can't discount the option of him being a bluffing wolf, but I like his theory too much. Or then he is a wolf who is telling the truth.

That is what worries me. Since in my last game as a wolf we obeyed Phantom's law and told the truth (apart from Boro's crazy ranger act)... we said exactly why Kath was killed and so on and it never got picked up on.... and Mithalwen's law states that certainty is the mark of a beast.... but that will have to be looked at another day. Too late for today...

[Thinlómien]

I guess everybody has voted now...?
Let's hope we were right.... *crosses fingers*

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Voting is closed. Gollum will die soon.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Gollum the Great was the one chosen today. That most youthful of the Elders, of immaculate coat and shining eyes, was deemed most likely to be evil: for as the wise philosophers have ever proven, those who choose conflict with Wargs commit the most heinous act -- that of knowingly abandoning the truth. And so Gollum was set upon by the ferocious Wargs.

Torn and ripped and gruesomely bludgeoned was the slighted Warg, a very messy end due to Gollum the Great fighting back 'gainst his slayers. But alas! when all was said and done, the corpse lay still, blood oozing over the stone floor. Manwë's humbling was not in vain, this was remembered, for every Warg whom the world lost was a mighty blow in favour of those who would swindle Middle-earth out of proper glory.


------------------------------------------------------


The Living

Thinlómien
Kath
Gwathagor
Mithalwen
Diamond
Gaunt

The Dead

SamwiseGamgee (Guardian)
Kitanna (Warg)
Groin Redbeard (Warg)
Nogrod (Warg)
Legate of Amon Lanc (Manwë)
Shastanis Althreduin (Warg)
Rune Son of Bjarne (Seer)
Gollum the Great (Warg)

Victorious

Brinniel (Melkor)


----------------------------------------------------


Night 5 has come. No talking in the village. Villains, send me a name.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The Wargs had deciphered more of Eomer's last words. Constant rambling about the point of their being Wargs, and the Pain being brought about by the enemies of Wargs, who are not Wargs. He was at pains to point that out, at least.

But also, more dramatically, on that evening they discovered that their next day could be their last: for when the villains cut the number of Elders down to their own number, they shall then be assured of victory. With two more Warg-slayings would this happen.

One had happened in the night. Mithalwen was discovered, brutally slaughtered; that venerable Warg had suffered greatly in these days, bearing the Pain heavily. She had suffered in the night too, of that the cadaver did testify. The Wargs needed desperately to be correct, but such power was tricking them. Who would prevail?


-----------------------------------------------------


The Living

Thinlómien
Kath
Gwathagor
Diamond
Gaunt

The Dead

SamwiseGamgee (Guardian)
Kitanna (Warg)
Groin Redbeard (Warg)
Nogrod (Warg)
Legate of Amon Lanc (Manwë)
Shastanis Althreduin (Warg)
Rune Son of Bjarne (Seer)
Gollum the Great (Warg)
Mithalwen (Warg)

Victorious

Brinniel (Melkor)




Day 5 is here.

[Gwathagor]

Well. I guess we'd better get one toDay.

[Gaunt]

That didn't go very well.

Now I don't know who to vote for.

Time for a serious rethink.

[Gaunt]

Early thoughts:

Gwath: My suspicion is rapidly fading - given my drastically erroneous case made against Gollum and Gwath yesterday, it would have made sense for Gwath, if he was a wolf, to have lynched me or Thinlomien, who were making the strongest cases against him.

Diamond: Also made case against Gollum and Gwath, but voted early for Gollum. To influence further voting for Gollum and take attention away from himself? Possibly.

Kath: Managed to make vote for Gollum yesterday in quite unobtrusive fashion. Hmm

Thinlomien: Mithalwen was the only person yesterday to suspect her, which at first sight makes her seem suspicious. However, I think a more subtle move, if she was a wolf, would be to go for someone else and not raise suspicions by killing the only person who suspected her yesterday. Again, hmm.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gwath

Well. I guess we'd better get one toDay.

Agreed.

Originally Posted by Gaunt

That didn't go very well.

Agreed.

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Now I don't know who to vote for.

Agreed.

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Time for a serious rethink.

Agreed.



I don't think I will be voting Kath today, though. I think it looks rather clear Rune dreamt of her and found her innocent. I know it's a bit risky to trust anyone at this phase, but I need to narrow the choice somehow. If we get through toDay, I might reconsider her. Right now I'm ready to make a bet of sorts and trust her. I can't vote more than one person anyway...

So, it's Gwath, Gaunt or Di for me toDay. If I'm right with my assumption about seer dreams, I have 2/3 possibility to vote a wolf. That cheers me up a little. I could just vote randomly and it would be more probable to get it right than not get it right! Okay... I won't do that. I will clearly be doing some rereading toDay.

Also, everybody should try to talk and thus give evidence of their innocence or guilt as much as they can toDay. Otherwise, it's going to be a tough Day...


edit: xed with Gaunt

[Gwathagor]

I would really like to post, but I am currently frantically writing a paper that is due in an hour or two. I'll reading along with you all though, and I'll do my best to make an appearance when I'm done.

I love small villages.

[Gaunt]

I've been looking back to find Rune's posts suggesting that Kath is innocent, and there are a couple. What is also interesting is that Rune had suspicions towards Thinlomien.

[Gaunt]

Right, I really have to go now but I'll be back tomorrow morning for more post-trawling.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gaunt

What is also interesting is that Rune had suspicions towards Thinlomien.

The day he suspected (and voted) me on, he said this:

Originally Posted by Rune

I could imagine Legate and Lommy being candidates and even though I will not write them off my list completely (of lynch candidates) I am not too thrilled about voting for either today.

It doesn't look like a dream-based suspicion, does it?

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Gwath: My suspicion is rapidly fading - given my drastically erroneous case made against Gollum and Gwath yesterday, it would have made sense for Gwath, if he was a wolf, to have lynched me or Thinlomien, who were making the strongest cases against him.

I kind of agree with this - or some of this at least - Gollum was the obvious choice yesterDay, yet we got wrong. Gwath would kind of seem the obvious choice toDay - so that's why I feel a bit bad about it. I'm not sure about who he would have killed, though. Often in ww games general moods change quickly, so it would possibly not have been necessary for him to kill you or me. Also, that would have put the spotlight on him - which is something he would not want now if he's a wolf. (But of course, he could have double-bluffed with that... it's an endless circle.)

I think it would have made sense for pretty much anyone to kill Mith - she was practically suspected by nobody, so the wolves were removing someone who wouldn't probably get lynched toDay.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Gwath would kind of seem the obvious choice toDay - so that's why I feel a bit bad about it.

This is assuming a lot. Why am I the obvious choice now?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

This is assuming a lot. Why am I the obvious choice now?

Simply, because you strike me as the most suspicious. Or okay, if you want a better and more thoughtful answer, I don't know what to think right now, but of those who are now alive, I suspected you the most yesterDay. Pretty much everyone suspected you more or less yesterDay. That's why I call you "the obvious choice". Makes sense?

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Simply, because you strike me as the most suspicious. Or okay, if you want a better and more thoughtful answer, I don't know what to think right now, but of those who are now alive, I suspected you the most yesterDay. Pretty much everyone suspected you more or less yesterDay. That's why I call you "the obvious choice". Makes sense?

Hell no.

Ok, maybe.

I'm going to check your facts later...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I'm going to check your facts later...

Feel free to. I too would be interested to know if they're right...

Seriously though, I think I'm going to look through all the posts of Gwath, Gaunt and Di and maybe even write an analysis or summary out of them. We'd better not make a hasty choice toDay...