WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't think it's strange at all. Lots of people do that. Her argument against Mac and Volo is pretty run-of-the-mill flimsy Day 1 stuff, too. Lions can't just assume everyone who suspects one of them is the seer.

I'm not sure. Looking back, I see that Mac did a similar list without suspecting anyone, and Lommy also did one without really suspecting anyone (she suspected G55 but only for being quite passionate in discussion, apparently).

G55's list, however, had two clear suspicions. I think her case against Mac at least made sense; but to claim that Volo 'rubbed her the wrong way' and was a certain vote candidate... there might be something to that.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

My error was in arguing as if the lions had targetted Wilwa, which obviously didn't happen. That kinda rendered my whole post pointless.

Right. Lions = Lannisters. Bear and Maiden fair = not Lannisters. You said Lannister filth, not bear filth. And I obviously lied about going back to work. And I'm not sure why I'm clarifying my answer to your error.

Originally Posted by Eomer

By the way, I also noted that 'odd' response to which you refer. Classic tactic?

I'm not really sure what you're talking about. I've referred to a lot of things.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You've lost me, Kit. Are we no longer even to refer to Lannisters without being accused of being the Bear?

That other point, seeing as you're obviously not in the mood to be cryptic about things, is that I agreed with your assessment of Enca's response to me (you had used the word 'odd' to describe it in your previous post). It was rather chummy behaviour, and I noted it at the time.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

You've lost me, Kit. Are we no longer even to refer to Lannisters without being accused of being the Bear?

No, no. I missed

So if the lions weren't really expecting the Seer to be findable, and chose Wilwa because of this, then I'm sure two of them at least are in this group.

entirely. I read your last line as the Lannisters got lucky in killing Wilwa, not that they got lucky because she died. I just focused on the wrong part of your statement.

That other point, seeing as you're obviously not in the mood to be cryptic about things, is that I agreed with your assessment of Enca's response to me (you had used the word 'odd' to describe it in your previous post). It was rather chummy behaviour, and I noted it at the time.

No cryptic tonight I'm afraid. Too much RL work. But yes, I'm glad you noticed it as well.

[Nogrod]

Okay. G55 seems not a person whose posting screams seerishness... which I think many of you have noticed already before me.

But I'd still like to put forth a couple of things I think merit consideration.


First of all, she was the one the lions (wolves) killed and it is absolutely their priority to kill the seer asap. Whether the bear got lucky/unlucky by hitting the real seer is another question and isn't of importance discussing G55 and who the lions are.


Secondly G55 was amazingly double-faced yesterDay. On one hand she was really assertive, clearly on top of the game looking confident, smart and showing she had thought about things very thoroughly. On another she made all kinds of odd statements like all these "Lynch a lion, be my guest", saying it's easier to jump Skip than those who voted him and yet maintaining Skip was one of her candidates to vote, being seemingly serious about Lommy's random point that the first voters had always voted the one who voted before them saying she'd file them for later reference etc.

I've played with her a few times before and especially her very self-confident, almost leadership-like posting was new to me at least - and I actually realised it only now as I went through her posts again - I guess I concentrated more on the other half of her act yesterDay more.


She also made one interesting remark about those who had voted Skip (or were openly suspecting him) - not so much what she said but how she said it: (underlining mine)

Originally Posted by G55

I can see why skip is suspicious, but I'm rather baffled at how centred the votes are around him. I don't like it. Seems too easy for... certain individuals.

In her list-post Eomer already referred to she makes this to and fro with Skip but openly suspects two people: Mac and Volo.

Here's what she says:

Mac - really don't like the way he pushes some discussion. His arguments don't make that much sense (slash I just don't agree, but then that's how we evaluate sense most of the time), and he's very insistent on them. However, he's blatantly running for the centre spotlight of attention, which is unwolvy. But still, the way he says some stuff just doesn't sound right. Vote candidate.
Volo - don't remember much of him at this point, but some of the earlier things he said rubbed me the wrong way. They just don't sit right. Vote candidate.

Like you see, her suspicion on Mac is quite specified relating to his posting - even if a bit contradictory. Volo on the other hand is handled with a lot less detail aka. "some early posting rubbed her the wrong way"...

So if she was thought of being the seer because of her suspicions, I'd say Volo is a more believble candidate than Mac as she took pains to actually specify her suspicion on Mac in posting-terms.


Then again she clearly defended Wilwa (and Lottie "gives good vibes") but that was mostly grounded on specifics about her posting - so not exactly a seer-hint either (like Lottie could have been - but that positiveness was maybe too shallow to raise any interest from the lions).

So if the lions were not going after her having spotted one of them (Volo? Mac maybe less believably?), then it could have been her swag and some odd-points together that killed her: too self-assured and knoweldgeable (or putting too much effort) not to be an ordo and odd enough to try and raise some suspicion as to not be the "one everyone trusts and therefore to be done with"?


Hard to say.

It's 3AM and I'm to bed. See you later toDay.

[Macalaure]

Galadriel

Joking list in #6. Could the lions have thought there's a seer hint hidden in there? Bit of a stretch, probably. Would point to Wyth being a lion.

Then there's several posts of role discussion, during which she strangely grows more and more irritated.

Big list in #107. The two that stand out are Volo and me. Her suspicion of Volo comes without real reason, but it wouldn't make me point at her and scream "seer" if I were him. Shortly after she votes for me.

She's still around after her vote, defending Skip and receiving some criticism for it from Nogrod and Rikae (oddly, neither of them Skip voters themselves).


The only people who could've thought they've been dreamt of if they're lions are Wyth and Volo, and it's a stretch for both. If the lions thought she was gifted, it must've simply been due to her being overly passionate.

Or they killed her for a different reason - maybe they had no clue on the seer yet. If they were trying to frame me, Greenie or Nogrod would've been better choices. Unless those two are lions, but I feel like I'm starting to reach here.

She's obviously not a no-trail kill, but maybe a false-trail one? In that case the lions would be found among the people she didn't suspect in #107. Unfortunately, that doesn't exactly narrow down the list.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I know people are always - myself included - most interested in the reasons someone killed the seer. And that is generally a sound tactics. But now I'm afraid we're concentrating too much on Wilwa (the real seer killed by a bear) while in a way forgetting that G55 was killed by the lions (three of them) and was much more likely looking like a seer to some people...

I'm taking a short look at G55's posting.

I agree that the Wilwa discussion hasn't really gone anywhere - she didn't leave much of a trail as a seer, and I don't know why she was targeted by the lovers, but I feel like if the lovers were looking for a seer candidate, there were more likely options.

If Nog were a lion, I don't know that he would have brought our attention back to G55. After all, he could have spun his wheels in the Wilwa conversation for a while, made himself seem helpful, and gotten nowhere towards lion-hunting. Instead, he (and Eomer, who followed Nog's lead and looked into G55's posts) bring our attention back to the person the lions actually did kill, and who might have been an attempt at the seer. I think that reflects very well on both of them.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

G55's post #107 is rather Seerish, actually. Strange for anyone to make such a detailed list of every single player that early in the game, when so little had been said. Lions would certainly notice that, and it would be worth a punt at that stage.

For that reason, maybe it would be a good idea to take a chance on her most suspicious: Volo and Mac. It's not simply that she highlighted those two, but that she lined them up in front of every other player.

Obviously she couldn't have dreamed of both of them; she sounds more suspicious of Volo in this post (to me).

I agree with this. I think, if G55 was killed as a likely seer target, Volo was probably the reason why. Moreover, since there wasn't a huge backlash against him until later in the Day, I also think it's very unlikely the lions were attempting to frame him.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't think it's strange at all. Lots of people do that. Her argument against Mac and Volo is pretty run-of-the-mill flimsy Day 1 stuff, too. Lions can't just assume everyone who suspects one of them is the seer.

Well, but if you're a lion looking for a seer on Night 2, that might be the best you can get in terms of seer candidates. G55 suspected Volo above and beyond almost everyone else, and the one person she put him level with had a lot more reasoning behind his placing than Volo did, which makes her suspicion of him noteworthy, and noteworthy suspicion of someone who actually is a lion is eye-catching to the lions. I could see them basing their Night-kill off that.

EDIT: xed with Mac

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lottie

If Nog were a lion, I don't know that he would have brought our attention back to G55.

Depends. If the lions tried to kill the seer unsuccessfully, then they should analyze the kill themselves thoroughly, subtly emphasizing whatever points the other ways, hoping the majority of the village just goes along and is too lazy to look for themselves. If they made a no/false trail kill, then they can just sit back and watch the village mess up.

I haven't paid much attention to toDay's posting yet, so I'll go do that now.

[WythDryden]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Galadriel

Joking list in #6. Could the lions have thought there's a seer hint hidden in there? Bit of a stretch, probably. Would point to Wyth being a lion.

LOL. Even IF I were a lion, taking her out based off the joke she made in that post would be: A.) drawing unnecessary attention to myself (and a bit suspicious), and B.) far too blatant on her part to be considered for being a raven. We know now that she was not the raven, but it wouldn't be in her best interest as coming off as being such anyways as they have a generally short lifespan from what I understand. A more subtle tactic would be a wiser move. Such as deflecting suspicion away from yourself, and towards a person who voted for you? >;-P

[Inziladun]

Amidst the other discussions, the voting yesterDay should be examined, I think. I may not have time tonight, since it's bedtime soon, but I'll give it a shot tomorrow if someone else doesn't beat me to it.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Ah yes, you seemed quite worried about the direction the conversation was talking yesterDay. It seemed, and seems, a bit far fetched to me - simply discussing the lovers' role in the game on Day 1 without any clue who they, or the wolves, might be doesn't put them in any particular danger, nor does it protect the wolves.

It was far-fetched, but what are you going to do on Day One? However, if too many people discuss roles and strategy instead of trying to poke holes into each other to see if there's something furry hidden inside, then lions and bears do benefit.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

why Boro and Zil exactly?

Boro was pure gut feeling. Inzil was very quick to suspect me over something minor early on. I did mention that in one of my posts... somewhere.

Originally Posted by Wyth

LOL. Even IF I were a lion, taking her out based off the joke she made in that post would be: A.) drawing unnecessary attention to myself (and a bit suspicious), and B.) far too blatant on her part to be considered for being a raven. We know now that she was not the raven, but it wouldn't be in her best interest as coming off as being such anyways as they have a generally short lifespan from what I understand. A more subtle tactic would be a wiser move. Such as deflecting suspicion away from yourself, and towards a person who voted for you? >;-P

Wow, you're being defensive. I said it was a stretch, but now I do suspect you.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Amidst the other discussions, the voting yesterDay should be examined, I think. I may not have time tonight, since it's bedtime soon, but I'll give it a shot tomorrow if someone else doesn't beat me to it.

I was just thinking this as well as I was reading everything. Looking at Gal and Wilwa is good, but as some have noted, the trails don't lead far given we are only onto day 2.

The band-wagon on Skip gives me a bad feeling, was his poor reasoning really enough to garner suspicion or did it give an opening for the lions to start an easy vote. It was a day 1 vote after all, which are flimsy at best.

I need to look at the case against Mac as well, I do admit I am not sure entirely the reason but will read up on it.

[WythDryden]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Wow, you're being defensive. I said it was a stretch, but now I do suspect you.

You'll have to excuse me being defensive, this is my first experience being accused. Though it is still a Wolfy thing to do by distracting people with farfetched ideas that were pretty plainly taken as jokes, while also implicating someone who had voted on you.

Edit: X'd Gil

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well, but if you're a lion looking for a seer on Night 2, that might be the best you can get in terms of seer candidates. G55 suspected Volo above and beyond almost everyone else, and the one person she put him level with had a lot more reasoning behind his placing than Volo did, which makes her suspicion of him noteworthy, and noteworthy suspicion of someone who actually is a lion is eye-catching to the lions. I could see them basing their Night-kill off that.

EDIT: xed with Mac

If you're a lion on Night 2 with no better leads on the seer than "someone suspected one of us in a list in an ordinary way", killing that person is a good way to create a trail back to yourself to kill what's probably (and was) an ordo. Not wise. A lot of people threw around vague suspicions on Day 1, as usual, without being seers. After all, the odds are against the seer's first dream being a baddie, in general, on Day 1.

Nope, I don't think it was an attempt on the seer at all. I think perhaps that was the false trail they hoped to set out for us - look how many people are insisting on it, even while admitting there was nothing particularly seerish about Gal!

The most seerish comment was from our actual seer, about Mac or about her list of trusted people, though even that isn't much. Still, Boro, Kit, Nerwen, Mac and I are all fairly likely early seer dreams.

Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?

At any rate, I really think we ought to look at the people who are playing it safe, people the 'trail', such as it is, conveniently bypasses.

Reading quickly over yesterDay, Eomer's posting struck me as very safe, basically just amplifying things that were already being said and bantering a bit. Lottie, Kit and Inzil's votes were fishy (so was Eomer's). Boro, of all people, is sleeping under the reindeer. I really have a feeling the Lannisters are sitting in the corner right now and enjoying the show.

[Encaitare]

I've just caught up on the thread and need to go to bed soon, so no time for a detailed response. But I do have a strong feeling that one Lion was part of the bandwagon on Skip yesterDay. In order of their voting, that was Loslote, Kitanna, Wilwa, Inzil, and Eonwe. This is mostly based on gut feeling, but I don't think a Lion would be one of the first to vote, so probably not Lottie. So that leaves Kitanna, Inzil, and Eonwe. I'll review the thread tomorrow to likely decide among these three.

[Nerwen]

Here and reading.

[Nerwen]

Apologies for the lack of activity yesterDay– I will try to make up for it toDay.

So, since there has already been much discussion about the two Night-kills, I thought it might be an idea to set out just who said what.

Wilwa (Seer)– killed by Bear

1. Suspected Lion
–Suggested: Kit #170, Volo #174, Nog #180, WythDryden #182, Zil #184 (possibly: wording is ambiguous), Enca #185.
–Disputed: Zil #172 (“weren’t a lot of people talking about the Lovers?)

2. Suspected Seer, who had left a “Bear hint”
–Suggested: Rikae #177 (with the hint being on Mac), Nog #180, WythDryden #182 (“possible, but improbable”), Kit at #186 (unless still referring to her suspected-Lion scenario).
–Disputed: Mac #179 ("If she did dream about anyone guilty, she's hiding it completely. I doubt it, though”), Enca #185 ("Statistically, it's more likely that Wilwa dreamed of an innocent”), Lottie #207 ("didn’t leave much of a trail’).

3. Suspected general special role, based on “nervous” posting
–Suggested: Rikae #177 ("the bear may have been content to get either a gifted or a lion”).

4. As a general danger to the Lovers
–Suggested Mac #179 ("Maybe they thought if they could get rid of a person who talks a lot about their role, the general discussion would end up focusing more on the lions”), Enca #185.
–Disputed: Rikae #183 ("simply discussing the lovers' role in the game on Day 1 without any clue who they, or the wolves, might be doesn't put them in any particular danger”).

5. As a no-trace kill
-Suggested Eomer #192. [This appears to rest on a confusion about who actually killed Wilwa, so may not count]


G55 next.

EDIT:made corrections.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Secondly G55 was amazingly double-faced yesterDay. On one hand she was really assertive, clearly on top of the game looking confident, smart and showing she had thought about things very thoroughly. On another she made all kinds of odd statements like all these "Lynch a lion, be my guest", saying it's easier to jump Skip than those who voted him and yet maintaining Skip was one of her candidates to vote, being seemingly serious about Lommy's random point that the first voters had always voted the one who voted before them saying she'd file them for later reference etc.

I've played with her a few times before and especially her very self-confident, almost leadership-like posting was new to me at least - and I actually realised it only now as I went through her posts again - I guess I concentrated more on the other half of her act yesterDay more.

I'm inclined to think that G55's change of playing style (based on what you say), which seemed erratic and outspoken to me yesterDay, is something which was interpreted as not-Ordo. My intuition was Lion. For the Lions, it's obviously Crow, 3idCrow (likely), Targaryen, Bear or Maiden.

Just to clarify:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

18. Volo -> Gala (throws vote away)

Factually, it is a throwaway vote. I hadn't realized that only me, Noggie, Eomer and Nerwen, who didn't vote, were remaining. Noggie was musing about voting G55 so I thought of joining him rather than voting someone I didn't think was a Lion (strategically it might have been more sensible to actively choose between skip, wilwa and Mac, but I had a gut feeling, I wanted non of them lynched...). So I xd with Noggie.

I'll conclude, that wilwa didn't leave a hint on her Dream. Prudent of her. Doesn't make sense to speculate what role she could have Dreamed of.

Unfortunately, this doesn't leave me with much.

[Coppermirror]

I'm here, reading, and very, very slowly working through an analysis of Day 1. As I mentioned in the admin thread, on Day 1 my internet cut out part way through page 2, which is why I couldn't vote. But I absolutely must vote toDay.

[Nerwen]

Sorry for the delay– RL intervened.

Galadriel55 (Ordo)– killed by Lions

1. Suspected Targaryen
–Suggested: Rikae #177 ("she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early?”)
–Disputed: Zil #184 (“would they have really wanted to get the Hunter already, though?”; points out that this scenario would make Mac look good)

2. Suspected Seer
–Suggested: Volo #178 (from list at #107; “dream” = innocent Wilwa/guilty Mac; former more likely), Nog #180 ("So as a working hypothesis I'd say the lions were after someone they had even the faintest reasons to think was the seer”) [At #205, concedes she was “not a person whose posting screams seerishness”], Kit #194 ("Her endorsement of Wilwa could have been read as a seer hint. She also says Volo and Mac are her top suspects.”), Eomer #196 ("G55's post #107 is rather Seerish, actually”; also suggests it points to Volo and Mac); [Nog #205 thinks Volo more likely], Mac #206 (suggests it could point to Wyth and Volo) [at #206 says this is a “stretch”], Lottie #207 (points at Volo)
-Disputed: Rikae #200 ("Lions can't just assume everyone who suspects one of them is the seer.”)

3. As a general danger to the Lions
–Suggested: Kit #181 ("Maybe too helpful in the lionesses' eyes?”)

3. As a frame
–Suggested (tentatively): Mac #206 ("If they were trying to frame me, Greenie or Nogrod would've been better choices. Unless those two are lions, but I feel like I'm starting to reach here.”)

4. As a false trail
–Suggested: Mac #206, Rikae #214 ("look how many people are insisting on it, even while admitting there was nothing particularly seerish about Gal!”)

6. Suspected Bear
–Suggested: Rikae #214 ("Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?”)

7. Suspected general special role
–Suggested: Nog #205 ("it could have been her swag and some odd-points together that killed her”). Volo #219 ("I'm inclined to think that G55's change of playing style (based on what you say), which seemed erratic and outspoken to me yesterDay, is something which was interpreted as not-Ordo”)

Overview/Analysis

Well, as you see it’s quite interesting, but tremendously over-complicated and there are just far too many names to keep track of… wait...

[Thinlómien]

I should've knocked on wood yesterDay when I said this game seems almost too easy despite the werebear...

We should - obviously - look at Wilwa's post and try to figure out her Night1 dream and look at Galadriel's posts to see if there are any clues why the wolves wanted to kill her. Not doing that now as my time is limited, instead replying to stuff from toDay (reading and writing simultaneously so apologies if I repeat somebody's points):

Originally Posted by Volo

G55's list suggests that she could have been interpreted to dream of wilwa being Innocent - which doesn't help us much. G55 emphasizes wilwa unlike any other.
I guess she could have been suspected of dreaming of a guilty Mac, but doesn't seem that way to me. Could be the Lions were nervous of her being correct though...

Now that you provided the link, I had a look at the list myself, and here it is:

Originally Posted by G55

Did not stand out:
Eonwe
Enca (much too little impression of her yet, and my first game with her and all)
Zil - not much to say about him. He poked around but didn't stand out either way
Boro - see above
Kit - ditto
Greenie - didn't know the game is on
Rikae - doesn't feel innocent, but also doesn't feel guilty
Cop - somewhat crazy, but otherwise ok / no impression.
Nog - seems more absent than not, or maybe my impressions of him just got lost in the sea of posts and players.
sally - blank on her.

Eomer - picks and pokes, but looks ok.
Lommy - more flambuoyant than I remember, but no feeling either way.
Lottie - gives good vibes.
wilwa - me likey! Quite loud throughout a good portion of the Day, and she's very reasonable and makes sense.
Nerwen - looks like her usual self. Too early and too little posts from her to declare "feels innocent", but it's getting there.
Wyth - not much from him, eh? He made one pretty good point, then backed down. I'd say, good point, backing down like that is not the greatest strategy but I've done worse. I would not vote him either way, this being his first game, but even without that I wouldn't vote him. Good vibes maybe?
Mac - really don't like the way he pushes some discussion. His arguments don't make that much sense (slash I just don't agree, but then that's how we evaluate sense most of the time), and he's very insistent on them. However, he's blatantly running for the centre spotlight of attention, which is unwolvy. But still, the way he says some stuff just doesn't sound right. Vote candidate.
Gil - I don't like the way he posts, but he posts this way. I tend to give more slack for erratic and careless playing styles than most others, and this game is no exception. When I read his posts, I look more at the content than at how he says it.
Volo - don't remember much of him at this point, but some of the earlier things he said rubbed me the wrong way. They just don't sit right. Vote candidate.
skip - I don't agree with what he's said, and I don't like his vote, but I can understand his vote. At this point I think it's much easier to jump on him than claim that he jumped on Gil. So semi-vote candidate.
G55 - my lovely innocent self.

Obviously if the wolves thought she was the seer, it was not anything from the first category. If I recally correctly, she did defend Wilwa quite a lot so she might have seemed seerish in that way? Or looking at the list above, Nerwen? Or what about Lottie "giving good vibes" and nothing else? Evil!Mac and evil!Volo seem like options too, but I think they were both suspected more by someone else, and the phrasing is not especially seerish at least in this post. Should obviously look at her other posts for more seerish phrasings or things that could have been interpreted as gifted hints. (I guess calling herself "my lovely innocent self" can't count as a gifted hint to anyone??)

Originally Posted by Mac

Wilwa

In #91, she lists Boro, Rikae, Kitanna, and Nerwen as people she feels good about, no reasons given. If she has dreamt about an innocent, most likely it is one of these four.

If that's the only instance she names people innocent, I'm a bit worried. Usually seers make sure their dreams can be figured out if they die (should maybe check Wilwa's posts if she left us any code) but using just this, I'm feeling slightly better about Boro, because if she was putting her known innocent there she would've put him first, right?

Also, as interesting as it is, people shouldn't concentrate half as much on why the bear killed Wilwa. The bear is not our primary lynch target at the moment.

And what is this talk about wolves wanting to off the hunter?? *looks especially at Rikae* Whenever people suggest the wolves killed someone for any other reason other than seeming seerish, it smells of covering trails to me. The wolves need to get rid of the seer, first and foremost. There needs to be a good reason not to go for someone who looks seerish to them.

Aaaaand that's the end of page 5, running out of time now, so only getting to page 6 later toDay. Until then!

[A Little Green]

Here very briefly before having to dash off. Firstly, whether the bear intended to kill the seer or not, I'm betting the lions are having a really good time right now. As for their Gal kill, I think it's possible they got gifted vibes off her. As Nog or someone pointed out, she did behave a little differently from her usual style. She seemed more involved and agitated than usual, which would probably have stood out to anyone who's played with her before. But I don't really buy the argument of her death incriminating Mac (although he has enough incriminating him as it is) or Volo, unless they are really twitchy lions. I'd like to still reread Gal at some point but definitely don't have the time for that now.

Originally Posted by Kit

The problem with this of course is the lovers don’t know who the lions are and keeping them alive could end this game very quickly. But also the lions probably want the lovers alive for extra kills. I’m waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?

Again - how do we choose between those two? How do we tell? And in any case, I'd say hunting the lions is our first priority since we win once all the lions are dead. It doesn't get much more straightforward than that, does it? Unless, of course, we at some point have very clear evidence of someone being the bear and no idea about the lions, it might be worth a lynch, but at the moment, spending a lot of time and energy on wondering about the bear is probably not worth our while.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).

Depends on the lions, I guess - purposefully targeting the hunter seems really risky, though.

Originally Posted by Kit

Easy bandwagon, lack of time vote, which I am also guilty of casting.

Hmm? I know the feeling, but still, something about the phrasing of this rubs me the wrong way. Like, "look, he did this suspicious thing, not that I'm accusing him of course".

Now I really have to be off, but I'll be back later!

[Nerwen]

Finally, my take on the Night-kills

Wilwa

No idea, really– she was killed by the Bear, whose motivations are hard to guess at this point. Certainly, though, her preoccupation with that role was very noteworthy yesterDay (even if it seemed to begin as IC posting). I would say that (from my list at #217), scenarios #1, #2 and #3 are all quite possible, while #4 is very unlikely, unless our Bear and Maiden are a nervous pair indeed. (Can’t comment on #5 for reasons already stated.)

Unfortunately I don’t think she left any really clear indication as to whom she actually did dream (if of a baddie, it would surely be Mac as the Bear).


Galadriel55

This is also puzzling. As a matter of principle, the player the wolves most want to kill is always the Seer (unless they’re cubs who don’t know any better). However, she in fact said little that seemed obviously Seer-ish, leading me to point out the same thing I did last game: sometimes wolves have so little lead to the Seer early in the game that they are forced to choose the kill for other reasons entirely (yes, I was a wolf that game– but it was also quite true, as you may recall). For this reason, I think the ideas that she might have been killed as a false trail/Targaryen/general “special role” all have merit.

Again, though *if* she was killed as a “Seer” her supposed dreamed villain (if any) would be Mac or Volo (possibly Wyth if we accept Mac's idea that the Lions took her #6 joke-post as a hint).

It is interesting how Mac shows up as a possible suspect based on both kills– yet, the reasons are contradictory. It can’t very well be both that the Lovers killed Wilwa for thinking him the Bear, while the the Lions killed G55 for thinking him a Lion. Unless the Lions had (correctly) guessed Mac to be the Bear while (mistakenly) thinking “Seer” Galadriel had dreamed him. (Yeah, I’m thinking this out as I go along.)

Note: had observed, but not read, Greenie’s post at time of posting this.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Depends on the lions, I guess - purposefully targeting the hunter seems really risky, though.

Yes, but the longer a hunter survives, the more chance he or she has of choosing the right target. I'm not saying that's how our particular lions operate, mind you, but I think it's a reasonable strategy.

Edit: typo

[Coppermirror]

Time to roll up my dirty hermit sleeves and look at what went on! This post will be long and maybe split up into parts, but I don't think I'll be able to get the grasp I need on what was going on otherwise.

Our Wilwa the Three-Eyed Ravenbeing zapped on Night 2 is the worst thing that could have happened. 18 people left, of which there are 2 lovers, 3 lions, and 13 innocents. It's also unfortunate that the 3 we've lost were talkative.

Page 1
There's plenty of banter from assorted people. Nothing looks particularly suspicious there at the moment.

The first substantive post of the Day comes from Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven. Goes over Bear, Maiden and Targaryen roles. Inzil of Tully agrees with her analysis and points out that the Bear and Maiden can choose who to side with. He sounds straightforward but quiet. Encaitare the peasant concludes in a stressed way that we have four enemies plus a possible cobbler to take out.

G55 the Innocent wildling agrees with Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven that we don't want to kill the bear and says she would trade the extra kill for a cobbler if push came to shove. Later she comments on how her assumption that the Lovers would be against the village might have been wrong. At #22 there's a piece of banter between her and Lommy about Encaitare the peasant and bears which might have spooked the Lions about her if Encaitare is one of their number or perhaps made them think she was a bear-dreaming Seer leaving hint. But would that be enough for them to act on? Odds are low that a Seer would have dreamed of a villain on Night 1.

Mac Connington likes Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven and G55 the Innocent wildling's posts, but thinks Inzil of Tully's added little. Nerwen of Martell likes his post, thinks there's been too much lovers and Targaryen talk, and suggests that those talking about them are nefariously steering the conversation away from Lannisters. But...what else did people have to talk about then, other than that? They seem legitimate discussion topics.

Lommy of Baratheon goes over bear pros and cons and makes a point of being freaked out. Points out the worst case scenario, which does indeed sound very bad. I assume her figures are correct. Wants a focus on the wolves but hopes the wolves and bear will take care of each other. Her post looks OK and sensible but it also takes a slightly scolding tone that might be good cover for a Lannister. Then goes on to mention that Nerwen of Martell's post looks classicly wolfy but that at least it got conversation going. Nerwen of Martell then points out that wolves like nothing more than bear hunting. And she may well be right about that. It is a possibility that the bear and maiden would also follow that line of reasoning.

On the other hand, I disagree that bear discussion was a bad idea at that point of the Day. It wasn't going to divert attention away from Lannisters and at that stage I doubt it could help anyone catch the bear, so it wouldn't help the Lannisters even if they were among those talking about it. Though Nerwen of Martell made me a little suspicious of her at first, her later posts on page 1 look better.

Skip of an innocent house wanted to focus on the lions rather than the lovers. Then suggests that the Targaryen should reveal...Oh, okay, I'm beginning to see how he got the axe on Day 1.

Then Volo of Greyjoy suggests everyone revealing as the Targaryen. Don't think he was serious there.

Mac Connington fake reveals as the Targaryen...Okay, even to make a point in a large village, I'm not sure that was a good idea, and it does make me wonder if there are any benefits to a stunt like that for a bear or lion. Thinking about it more, I'd guess there are potential benefits there both for an innocent, a bear or a lion, so that doesn't really help. His points about the Targaryen otherwise look fine, and he's both a little suspicious of Nerwen of Martell and of Lommy of Baratheon for her level of suspicion against Nerwen. My gut tells me that Mac and Nerwen are unlikely to be Lannisters together.

Page 2 ...So many pages still to get through.

- Eomer of Stark agrees that the Targaryen should not reveal, and appears to joke about Lommy and Boro being lions.
- Volo of Greyjoy likes the cut of Mac Connington's jib, and also wants to forge an alliance with the lovers.
- Skip of an innocent house thought it wasn't crazy for the Targaryen to reveal and that the numbers favour it.

- Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven discusses the likely bear and maiden allegiance pattern. Thinks it's interesting that Lommy was panicked about double night kills but only wanted to focus on wolves, and is a little confused by Lommy's vote conspiracy suggestion. It's possible that if Lommy is a lover, that might have been enough for the lovers to want Wilwa out of the way. Although I doubt that they would have been able to guess she was the Three-Eyed Raven from that.

- WithDryden of Martell claims to start thinking maybe Skip is innocent. Suspicious of Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven for looking too helpful. Perhaps this could have encouraged the lovers to think of Wilwa as a potential Lannister.
- Kitanna the peasant at #47 is fairly clear and logical but in her replies to Wilwa doesn't make any new points, other than to emphasise concern about Night kills rather than (presumably) vote conspiracies.

- Lommy of Baratheon at #48 is puzzling in her bolding and italicising of her statement about possible vote ruling. Is that really something a villain would want to say? I'll try reading it each way. (1) an innocent who really is spooked by the situation. That's consistent with what I can see of her analysis of the stats, which frankly are rather concerning. (2) a lover putting out feelers to the Lannisters. Not, perhaps, particularly likely at that point of the game. I can't see that being a good move for them. (3) a Lannister putting out feelers for the lovers. Not as risky as it would be for a lover, but still risky. Lommy would have to be a very bold Lannister taking a risk on Day 1 like that.

That statement is something that would be likely to attract the attention of the Three-Eyed Crow, and the lovers and Lannisters would want to avoid that, plus they couldn't realistically have expected to get the Three-Eyed Crow on Night 2. So perhaps Lommy is more likely to be an innocent.

- Gil at #49 says that the lovers and lions are likely to go for each other. G55 the innocent wildling has a point later on that actually keeping the bear alive could be in the interests of the lions, and Wilwa the Three-Eyed Crow disagrees a little later saying that it depends on how the Lannisters play it. His reasoning at #57 looks clearer and better, though the sort of precision he's advocating is probably impossible. None of it really helps to assess his guilt or innocence.
- Wilwa at #50 says "One good thing is that with this many players our gifteds are fairly well hidden." - which perhaps might have been read by the bear as something like "Oof, it's hard for a lion to find a gifted in a big village like this". I'm thinking now that Wilwa most likely looked Lionish to the lovers and that's why she was killed.
- Inzil's remarks are short and circumspect.
- Rikae's "Duly noted..." at #56 gives me a bad feeling. But perhaps I'm just reading too much into it.
- Boro at #63 thinks lions will be laying low and only going for the lovers themselves if there's a direct threat. Decent reasoning. At a guess I would say his tone isn't lionish.
- Skip of an Innocent house votes Gil. His reasoning isn't too bad.
- Mac at #70 comes over as a little odd, in that he's saying that a ranger save of a revealed Targaryen in a hypothetical scenario would be a bad thing since it'd mean there wouldn't be two analysable lion kills. I suppose he has a partial point, but I don't really like this. He also has some suspicions of Kitanna, Inzil, and to an extent Lommy. I can see his reasoning for those.
- Rikae at #75 is definitely moving in on Skip. Would a lion be doing that this early? At #77 votes Mac, or is it a fake vote?

Page 3

- Lottie is in a hurry and votes for Skip. If she's lionish, she probably knew about Rikae's suspicions of him at #75 and might have found him a good bet to get axed. While criticising Skip for making an easy vote, she makes an easy vote for him herself. But hypocrisy doesn't by any means have to equal villainy, especially given that she was undoubtedly in a hurry. Other than that, her list of impressions about people's tones seems well thought out and in some ways aligns with my own. This confuses me and makes me think "ah, she's right, and thinking along sensible lines" but then, it should be easy for a clever lion to do that, shouldn't it? I'm a little worried, and I will definitely not allow Lottie to go under my radar.
- And Sally at #85 votes for Lottie based on the list, but apparently for the opposite reason to my concerns. I may be getting hypocritical myself in turn, but that makes me feel relatively okay about Sally.
- Boro votes Inzil. Doesn't give clear reasoning but implies that it's because he thinks lions would be laying low and being uncontroversial. This in line with what he said earlier, and makes sense. He could be a lion conveniently following the line of thought expressed by Mac and Lottie about Inzil, though.
- Wilwa feels good about Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. Most likely, one of those was her dream. She lists some mild suspicions but the phrasing doesn't look likely.
- #94, only possible suspicion I see from G55 there is maybe of Mac.
- #98, Eomer's reasoning is probably right but doesn't give a lot of insight into him.
- #99 Kitanna votes Skip. She acknowledges that her reasoning is flimsy, but goes through it. It's not even bad reasoning as Day 1 goes, but she could just as easily be guilty as innocent.
- #100 Mac is so confusing. But that's not a bad strategy, especially for innocents on Day 1, so it's not necessarily suspicious.
- #105 Lommy's list seems reasonable enough. Points out that Skip is an easy vote, and of course she was right. Hard to draw any conclusions from this though.
- #107 G55 could have come over as Seerish there pretty easily, I think. But there are so many things she could have "dreamed" of that at this point it's likely futile to try to guess. But later in the game, there's a slim chance her list could have some use.
- Wilwa the Three-Eyed Crow and Inzil both vote Skip of an Innocent house.
- Rikae says "Something about Wilwa bothers me. She's reasonable enough, but she seems nervous". Interesting, and it probably shows at minimum that Rikae is a perceptive player. At maximum...would a lion point out that a player looked as if they were hiding something? Yes. But if she's a lion, she'd have to think that Wilwa had a non-seer role, since the lions didn't go for Wilwa.

- #117 G55 the Innocent wildling votes Mac. Says Skip voting "Seems too easy for... certain individuals." Who had voted Skip so far? Lottie, Kit, Wilwa, Inzil. Did she suspect any of these in her list at #107? ...No.

- #118 Nog defends Skip, and his reasoning is sound. Of course it would be easy for a lion to do that, especially at a point where Skip already had 4 votes.

Page 4/start of page 5 ...where my brain starts to shut down.

- #124, Greenie of Reed thinks Lommy and Mac are more chaotic than usual. Points out a possible "your side" lionish slip from Mac to Skip. Which, given that we know that Skip was innocent...is suspicious. But then, at this point, when Skip was definitely in danger, a very clever lion could have picked on that to try to deliver Mac to the axe the next Day.
- #128, Rikae votes Wilwa, citing the earlier concern that Wilwa had something to hide.
- Nog jumps on Mac's wording too, and Mac just says that it was just badly worded.
- Encaitare votes Nog, as she or he is unhappy about Nog's suspicion of G55 and quietness.
- Eönwë of Royce arrives. Votes Skip for the encouragement of Targaryen revealing. Hard to draw any conclusions from this, especially for a later arrival to the Day. He thinks that if Skip is a lion, Lottie is innocent. And suspects Mac, Rikae, Lommy and Gil each a little.
- #134, Volo doesn't like Eomer, G55 and Mac's phrasing.
- WithDryden/Lote suspects Mac and G55 and votes Mac.
- Greenie is worried about Lommy and Mac, and slightly about G55. She feels okay about Rikae and Volo. Nothing seems suspicious about her there.
- #138, Mac votes Inzil.
- #139, Nog thinks G55 and Mac not both lions and that there's at least one lion in the Skip voters.
- #140, Gil votes Boro
- #147, Lommy votes Wilwa, shortly after Volo voices suspicions of Wilwa. Nog follows up with suspicion of Wilwa, suggesting she's a lover.
- Eomer prefers Wilwa over Skip. Greenie prefers that too, but Mac over Wilwa.
- Greenie votes Mac. Nog votes Mac, and suggests he's a lover. Volo votes G55. Eomer votes Inzil.
Deadline.

This thing is going to give me a headache. So many votes, so many people. And I want to vote within the next half hour, because I need to sleep soon lest I just nod off. I lost track of things part way through page 4, and I need to look at that again and start to read what's been going on on Day 2, but this is my list of suspicions from before I lost track:

Suspicions:

Not a clue: Eönwë
Very fishy: Nobody, alas.
Medium fishy: Lottie, Inzil, Eomer, Nog,
Slightly fishy: Nerwen, Rikae, Mac, WithDryden, Greenie, Enca, Lommy
Neutral: Volo, Gil, Boro, Kitanna, Sally

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I wish I hadn't pointed out that Wilwa seemed nervous, but it seemed like a evil sort of nervousness to me.

Saying someone looks nervous isn't necessarily pointing them out to baddies as "hey look, (insert role)."

Originally Posted by Volo

G55's list suggests that she could have been interpreted to dream of wilwa being Innocent - which doesn't help us much. G55 emphasizes wilwa unlike any other.

If Galadriel was targeted as a possible seer by the lions I'd say her endorsement of an innocent Wilwa was likely why. Though she does mention Mac and Volo. But seems like a stretch to interpret what she had to say as seer hints about them.
Though her death could have been a random choice because she didn't really mention any lions. In which case Volo and Mac look decent.

Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).

I doubt they would have concerned themselves with the hunter this early. Not when the seer was still on the loose. Even then I'd think the lions next choice for gifted attacks would be the ranger.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, I would if I were them - getting the hunter sooner would mean a greater chance of an innocent being killed. You're right, though, in that case Mac looks good. If they thought she was the seer (though I don't see anything particularly seerish about her), Mac would be incriminated.

Where Galadriel's death is concerned I see Mac as somewhat innocent. She voted for him, but it's possible the lions thought she was seer based on her comments about Wilwa. Or if they thought they were getting the hunter, as both Rikae and Zil say, Mac looks pretty good.
However, I feel somewhat uneasy about Mac where Wilwa is regarded. Their interactions about the lovers yesterday was odd. A lion trying to get rid of the competition before the lovers get them? Or a bear nervous that a lion had pegged them?

Originally Posted by Nog

Secondly G55 was amazingly double-faced yesterDay. On one hand she was really assertive, clearly on top of the game looking confident, smart and showing she had thought about things very thoroughly. On another she made all kinds of odd statements like all these "Lynch a lion, be my guest", saying it's easier to jump Skip than those who voted him and yet maintaining Skip was one of her candidates to vote, being seemingly serious about Lommy's random point that the first voters had always voted the one who voted before them saying she'd file them for later reference etc.

The "lynch a lion" post was odd. And doesn't scream seer at all, but rather frustrated innocent. But as Nog pointed

Originally Posted by G55
I can see why skip is suspicious, but I'm rather baffled at how centred the votes are around him. I don't like it. Seems too easy for... certain individuals.

That does look a bit seerish. Which points to Lottie, me, Zil, Eonwe. Though I'm not sure when she made that remark so it may not include all of the surviving Skip voters.

Originally Posted by Lottie

If Nog were a lion, I don't know that he would have brought our attention back to G55. After all, he could have spun his wheels in the Wilwa conversation for a while, made himself seem helpful, and gotten nowhere towards lion-hunting.

Nog and Eomer could be steering the conversation back to lions in the same attempt to be helpful as contributing to the lovers' kill as well. Clever lions can steer us in all sorts of directions in an attempt to be "helpful."

Originally Posted by Wyth

You'll have to excuse me being defensive, this is my first experience being accused. Though it is still a Wolfy thing to do by distracting people with farfetched ideas that were pretty plainly taken as jokes, while also implicating someone who had voted on you.

And the defensiveness continues.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

G55 the Innocent wildling agrees with Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven that we don't want to kill the bear and says she would trade the extra kill for a cobbler if push came to shove. Later she comments on how her assumption that the Lovers would be against the village might have been wrong. At #22 there's a piece of banter between her and Lommy about Encaitare the peasant and bears which might have spooked the Lions about her if Encaitare is one of their number or perhaps made them think she was a bear-dreaming Seer leaving hint. But would that be enough for them to act on? Odds are low that a Seer would have dreamed of a villain on Night 1.

No, I doubt her comment on Encaitare would have been taken as a likely Seer-hint by either party (it’s basically just quoting Lommy anyway). However –despite my earlier comments– I find it odd that you think the villains would comfortably discount the idea of being Seer-dreamed on Night One. After all, not only can it happen, it happened last game. To us!

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

- Lommy of Baratheon at #48 is puzzling in her bolding and italicising of her statement about possible vote ruling. Is that really something a villain would want to say? I'll try reading it each way. (1) an innocent who really is spooked by the situation. That's consistent with what I can see of her analysis of the stats, which frankly are rather concerning. (2) a lover putting out feelers to the Lannisters. Not, perhaps, particularly likely at that point of the game. I can't see that being a good move for them. (3) a Lannister putting out feelers for the lovers. Not as risky as it would be for a lover, but still risky. Lommy would have to be a very bold Lannister taking a risk on Day 1 like that.

That statement is something that would be likely to attract the attention of the Three-Eyed Crow, and the lovers and Lannisters would want to avoid that, plus they couldn't realistically have expected to get the Three-Eyed Crow on Night 2. So perhaps Lommy is more likely to be an innocent.

Interesting. I was just reading through yesterDay, and Lommy's explanation of how the Lions and Lovers could join forces for mutual profit actually struck me as being rather suspicious. Not “String ‘er up!” suspicious, but certainly eyebrow-raising. I mean, yes, it’s something an innocent might legitimately bring up too– but I wouldn’t myself dismiss it just on the grounds of being “too risky”.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Skip of an innocent house wanted to focus on the lions rather than the lovers. Then suggests that the Targaryen should reveal...Oh, okay, I'm beginning to see how he got the axe on Day 1.

Indeed. I’m going to look over the Skip-waggon myself, but the fact is he really did walk into that, which is going to make it hard to distinguish any suspicious votes.

EDIT:X’d with Kitanna.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I doubt they would have concerned themselves with the hunter this early. Not when the seer was still on the loose. Even then I'd think the lions next choice for gifted attacks would be the ranger.

Sure– if they already knew the identity of all three gifteds. This is just like people discussing what order we should lynch the baddies in. I don’t understand this village.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

The band-wagon on Skip gives me a bad feeling, was his poor reasoning really enough to garner suspicion or did it give an opening for the lions to start an easy vote. It was a day 1 vote after all, which are flimsy at best.

The order was Lottie, Kit, Wilwa, me, and then Eönwë to finish it. I think I was the first to cast any suspicion on skip for his plan of the Hunter revealing.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?

That brings a question: what happens if both are successful, ie the Bear goes after a Lion and the Lions target the Bear? MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction)?

Originally Posted by Encaitare

I've just caught up on the thread and need to go to bed soon, so no time for a detailed response. But I do have a strong feeling that one Lion was part of the bandwagon on Skip yesterDay. In order of their voting, that was Loslote, Kitanna, Wilwa, Inzil, and Eonwe. This is mostly based on gut feeling, but I don't think a Lion would be one of the first to vote, so probably not Lottie. So that leaves Kitanna, Inzil, and Eonwe. I'll review the thread tomorrow to likely decide among these three.

I think it's very likely a Lion was in the skip-wagon. When I saw the voting yesterDay. I thought Wilwa's looked the worst , but now I might say Kit. Being in the midst of a bandwagon could be seen as safest for a baddie.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Again - how do we choose between those two? How do we tell? And in any case, I'd say hunting the lions is our first priority since we win once all the lions are dead. It doesn't get much more straightforward than that, does it? Unless, of course, we at some point have very clear evidence of someone being the bear and no idea about the lions, it might be worth a lynch, but at the moment, spending a lot of time and energy on wondering about the bear is probably not worth our while.

Also, the Bear is every bit as much a threat to the Lions as to everyone else. The alignment of the Lovers is fluid, and the Lions are fixed. That alone should make the Lions priority.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sure– if they already knew the identity of all three gifteds. This is just like people discussing what order we should lynch the baddies in. I don’t understand this village.

This was in response to the suggestion the lions were trying to knock out the hunter. I'm not suggesting they know who the gifteds are. I'm saying if they were targeting gifteds, aside from the seer, they'd want to try to find the ranger over the hunter.

[Coppermirror]

Well, I've got to vote, or I'll be modfired. I'm going to bed now and I won't be back before the deadline. Unfortunately, though my long post has got me up to speed on what was going on in the game, it hasn't found anyone I intensely suspect. I'm going to have to make the best guess I can.

I think I'm going to vote Eomer. My reasons for this are:
- Mostly his general tone and posting style yesterDay. It came over as reserved and opaque to me, and the sort of thing a lion might go in for.
- His vote placement. It was placed in a way where it couldn't have any real meaning for the outcome.

++Eomer

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No, I doubt her comment on Encaitare would have been taken as a likely Seer-hint by either party (it’s basically just quoting Lommy anyway). However –despite my earlier comments– I find it odd that you think the villains would comfortably discount the idea of being Seer-dreamed on Night One. After all, not only can it happen, it happened last game. To us!

It's not that I'm saying they could discount that possibility entirely. But, I wouldn't say that the size of the Inn is something irrelevant.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Interesting. I was just reading through yesterDay, and Lommy's explanation of how the Lions and Lovers could join forces for mutual profit actually struck me as being rather suspicious. Not “String ‘er up!” suspicious, but certainly eyebrow-raising. I mean, yes, it’s something an innocent might legitimately bring up too– but I wouldn’t myself dismiss it just on the grounds of being “too risky”.

Hmm. No, I wasn't meaning to say that I was entirely dismissing the possibility of Lommy being a villain. It's not at all safe to do that. What I was thinking was that the risk might make it less likely for her to be certain roles. That doesn't mean that villains won't ever take risks.

[Encaitare]

As I said before, I strongly feel that one Lion (not more) was in on the Skip bandwagon yesterDay. Loslote was first, so I don't think it's her. Wilwa could have been suspicious, having voted third of five, but turned out to be the Seer. So now to focus on the posting history of the remaining three.

Kitanna
On page 1, she only made a joke post. On page 2, she reiterated what some others had said, that she doesn't think targeting the Lovers should be a priority, because hopefully the Lovers will also be targeting Lions. She disagreed with Skip that a Targaryen reveal would be a good strategy. She also stated that work had been crazy busy, so her vote would likely be random.

On page 3, she agreed with Inzil that a Targaryen reveal would be better for later in the game. She voted for Skip, acknowledging that it wasn't much to go on, but that she found the push for the reveal to be troublesome. That was it for her posting on Day 1.

On page 5, Day 2, she thinks that the Lovers chose to target Wilwa because they thought she was a Lion, trying to steer conversation toward the Lovers. She notes how Inzil brought up that the lovers would have to take sides. She finds [b]Thinlomien[b] and Nerwen to be somewhat suspicious. She thinks Mac's fake reveal is either a distraction of someone who is "guilty," or that he's "a crazy Ordo". She says Volo's idea to forge an alliance with the Lovers makes sense, but that the Lovers are also a threat and there's no real way to make an alliance. She agrees with what Gil-Galad says, and says:

Originally posted by Kitanna
I'm waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?

She doesn't find Lottie or Sally suspicious. She points out a line of Wilwa's that she thinks could have made the Lovers nervous, where Wilwa said that if the Seer could reveal both a Bear and a Lion, it would be better to lynch the Bear first. She thinks Wilwa dreamed of either Mac, Boro, Rikae, herself, or Nerwen, but personally finds Mac suspicious. She notes that Eomer's push to find the lions could just as easily be a lion's tactic.

She later talks about G55 and her exchange with Eomer. She finds Enca's (my) response to Eomer to look strange given G55's innocence. Nogrod feels suspicious of G55, and Kit thinks that G55's strong endorsement of Wilwa could have been seen as a Seer hint.

On page 6, Kit and Eomer had an exchange where they both noted my "chummy" behavior with Eomer. Kitanna reiterates that she thinks the Lions targeted G55 because they got Seer vibes from her endorsement of Wilwa.

That's it up until now.

Final thoughts on Kitanna: Although she was the second vote for Skip, effectively starting the bandwagon, I think her reasoning is sound throughout. She acknowledges that a Day 1 vote naturally doesn't have much to support it, but I can see why she voted the way she did. I don't find Kit to be terribly suspicious at this point, although her phrasing "who cares if the lovers live until the end?" is a little odd. I'm leaning toward Kitanna being innocent at this time.

No more time at present to do a breakdown of Inzil and Eomer. (EDIT: This should have said Eonwe, not Eomer, as it was Eonwe who cast the final vote for skip.) Hopefully I will have time to do so before the voting deadline.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I think I'm going to vote Eomer. My reasons for this are:
- Mostly his general tone and posting style yesterDay. It came over as reserved and opaque to me, and the sort of thing a lion might go in for.
- His vote placement. It was placed in a way where it couldn't have any real meaning for the outcome.

++Eomer

I could see the placement of his vote as something a Lion would do, but I do think it would have been more desirable for one to have placed a bandwagon vote in the middle.

What were the throwaway votes? As in, people voting seemingly at random (maybe trying to avoid a bandwagon to look better)?

x/d with Enca

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And what is this talk about wolves wanting to off the hunter?? *looks especially at Rikae* Whenever people suggest the wolves killed someone for any other reason other than seeming seerish, it smells of covering trails to me. The wolves need to get rid of the seer, first and foremost. There needs to be a good reason not to go for someone who looks seerish to them.

On the contrary, insisting that the lions always must be killing based on seer suspicions looks to me like driving home a false trail.

If no one looks like a seer (and why should a seer who's had one dream, probably an innocent, look like one? A good one would lie low), they aren't going to just kill someone who happened to suspect one of them. If someone looks like another gifted that's a good kill choice too, and hunters usually only become a threat late in the game, when they have some clue what's going on.

Really, all this insistence that, if lions killed someone, it must have been as a suspected seer, irks me because it's really simplistic WW. Can you imagine how easy this game would be if that were really true?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It is interesting how Mac shows up as a possible suspect based on both kills– yet, the reasons are contradictory. It can’t very well be both that the Lovers killed Wilwa for thinking him the Bear, while the the Lions killed G55 for thinking him a Lion. Unless the Lions had (correctly) guessed Mac to be the Bear while (mistakenly) thinking “Seer” Galadriel had dreamed him. (Yeah, I’m thinking this out as I go along.)

Note: had observed, but not read, Greenie’s post at time of posting this.

Good point. If they were really sure, framing the bear would be the best way for the wolves to dispose of him.

[Nogrod]

Okay. Here and reading.

Instead of making a mega-post later, I'm trying to post in bits and pieces what posts made after my last one give rise to. The downside of course is that some of the issues might have been discussed at length already but I just haven't gotten there yet, but still I think a bit shorter posts make reading much lighter...


So I'm turning towards the belief that the lions were not after the seer last Night. But what Rikae said is kind of a nice possibility beside a more common no-trace or false-trace kill.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?

We should think about that.

What Volo said actually sounds possible: maybe G55's style (on top of things but yet a bit odd) yelled "a role"(!) to the lions? Like they lost nothing by going after her as it would be nice both ways whether she'd be a gifted or a lover? That sounds actually pretty reasonable.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I really have a feeling the Lannisters are sitting in the corner right now and enjoying the show.

I do get this vivid picture of Tywin Lannister watching as others do his bloody work...

While on SOIAF-ground I just have to add Nerwen on Wilwa's death:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No idea, really– she was killed by the Bear, whose motivations are hard to guess at this point.

No! The Bear killed a Mormont! A rival! You know how jealous lovers can be, they can stand no competition...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Really, all this insistence that, if lions killed someone, it must have been as a suspected seer, irks me because it's really simplistic WW. Can you imagine how easy this game would be if that were really true?

Agreed. The Lions (Bear too) obviously would have had an interest in getting the Seer, but anyone with a nervy/Gifted vibe could draw their attention.

On another note, maybe Boro can explain his vote for me? Mac's follow-up may have been out of spite, I don't know. He and I have a history of suspecting one another (usually falsely) from the start of a game, and what I said about him yesterDay was a reflection of that. Maybe it had been so long since he played that he forgot about it.

x/d with Rikae and Nog

[Loslote]

I should have more time to post toDay than I did yesterDay, but I am still posting from work, so it might be sporadic.

I noticed yesterDay that Zil's posts were cautious and non-confrontational, and that hasn't changed toDay. On top of that, he was right in the middle of the skip bandwagon, which, if there is a lion in that bandwagon (and I'd be surprised if there wasn't), that's probably the most likely place to find it.

Then, looking through the votes yesterDay, I noticed something else interesting. After Mac made his famous "the numbers may be on your side" comment, he accumulated a couple of votes. He still wasn't the top candidate by any means, but he had to leave right as he got his second vote, and there were enough people left that the lynch could easily have swung in his favor while he was gone. If Mac were a lion who had made a legitimate slip, he could well have felt that he was in real danger of being lynched - but he doesn't vote the leading candidate at the time. Instead, he gives a second vote to Zil, who was not really in danger of being lynched, which makes Mac's vote essentially a throw-away, which is not what you would expect if a lion feels himself threatened. However, if Mac had died, Zil would have looked pretty good because of that vote, which makes me suspect that, if Mac is a lion, Zil is likely one of his packmates.

I don't know that it works the other way, though - that is, if Zil turns out to be a lion, I don't think we can say anything concrete about Mac. The other issue is that I don't know Mac's playing style very well. I am suspicious of him, but my suspicion comes more from the fact that a lot of little things point to him being evil than any one big tip-off. His vote yesterDay is, as I have already said, odd, but it doesn't prove anything. His posts seem a little nervous to me, but I don't know his playing style very well, so I can't put much stock in that. G55 suspected him and might have been killed for looking like a seer, but that's a loose connection and I don't know how far we can trust that. His interactions with Wytherkins strike me as hugely concerning, since he's basically poking a newbie player until he jumps, then saying "oh, he jumped, he must be evil!" when, realistically, I would expect a first-time player to be a little defensive, and honestly, Wythy D. has been more composed than I would have expected in regards to Mac's poking.

All that to say, I think Zil and Mac look the most suspicious toDay, and I'll try to look into them a bit more if I have the time.

Pre-edit: I've probably xed, because this took me a while to write, so...preemptively xed since Zil's #233.

[Nerwen]

Death of an Imp

#33. skip believes we should focus on Lion-hunting rather then Bear-hunting.

#34. skip suggests the Targaryen reveal: "Isn't a known innocent much more useful to the village than an unknown hunter who may take anyone with him?”

#35. Lommy says “that’s up to the hunter, I guess”.

#36. Volo says, "I have a cunning plan! How about we all reveal as a Targaryen!”

#38. Mac explains in some detail what is wrong with skip’s plan, which he describes as “crazy". It is in the course of this that Mac makes his own, now infamous “reveal”. (In context, this is to make a point about fake reveals.)

#44. skip disputes Mac's judgement of his plan, arguing that he can’t see why anyone would counter-reveal, that the Targaryen would be protected for a Night, thus losing the Lions a kill, and that, essentially, we’re better off *without* a non-logical Hunter. (This last seems to be the basic assumption from which he’s working.)

#46. WythDryden is suspicious of skip's initial post, then edits this to say he has changed his mind because of "posts agreeing with the strategy”.
*Shrugs* Newbie. Who knows?

#47. Kit points out that the Bear would still get a Night-kill, that the Targaryen would have no special knowledge and that a known innocent is not all that helpful in a large village.

#51. Zil says a revealed hunter is useful only later in the game. "If the hunter revealed now, they could just bide their time and get him whenever."

#56. Rikae says that in fact (counter to skip's assertion, “pretty much anyone" might potentially reveal as the Targaryen.

#66. skip (vote-post). skip doesn’t see why anyone would fake-reveal, as "the real Targaryan would start to wonder”. Replying to Zil, argues:

Originally Posted by skip

Well, that they could get him whenever isn't quite true. As long as the Ranger is about, a known Ordo should count on protection every other night and going after the revealed Targaryan would be a 50/50 risk of getting a blocked kill.

But enough of that, we have to trust the Targaryan's own judgement on this.

Then votes Gil-galad (first vote of the Day)

Originally Posted by skip

He talks a lot but it's mostly echoes of what others have already said and he's careful not to be controversial. He argues whether we should go after the bear or the Lions which imo is a pretty moot point at present. This makes me suspect he's throwing out smokescreens.

#70.

Originally Posted by Mac

Well, maybe. The numbers may be on your side, but it would also mean we'd be without a proper analyzable wolf kill for two Nights. That doesn't help us.

Given how vehemently Mac had argued against the plan, this seems like he’s semi-caving in very suddenly, and with little cause. Odd.

#72. Gil comments that he had had a feeling he would be voted, and describes himself as a “safe lynch”.

#75. Rikae says wondering is in fact all the real Targaryen would be able to do in the case of a false-reveal, and goes on to add:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Tsk tsk - trying to neutralize our hunter for no good reason (a known ordo on Day 1? Pretty useless. A known ordo late in the game could be very valuable, as could a hunter kill) and now making the easiest of all easy votes?

It is from this point that the suspicion starts to build around skip.

#76. Wilwa reminisces about the time an *ordo* outed her as the hunter by false revealing, says reveals can’t always be trusted and that an early Targaryen reveal “wouldn’t be that beneficial”.

#81. skip says this ordo was in fact himself.

#82. Lottie makes a suspicion list, in which she says of skip:

I don't like his vote. Like Rikae said, it's a easy vote, and looks more like a wolf trying for an easy Day 1 lynch than an innocent with a genuine suspicion.

#82. Lottie votes skip.

Tally: Gil-galad 1, skip 1.

#84. Sally votes Lottie.

#87. Boro describes skip's vote as "an early random vote that looks innocent”. Goes on to vote Zil.

#88. Kitanna further disputes skip's plan (replying to skip at #66).

Originally Posted by Kit

This is assuming the known ordo/Targaryan can survive through the off night. I agree with Zil. Right now there is no reason for the hunter to reveal. I'm not sure why skip thinks having the hunter step forward is good. We have a known innocent who knows as much as every ordo in this game which at this point is nothing.

#91. Wilwa makes a suspicion list:

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Skip: I really don't like his suggestion about the hunter revealing. Having a known innocent isn't all that useful right now, at least not compared to how it could be in a few more days. Also not a fan of his vote, but really Day 1 votes kinda always suck.

#95. Zil (replying to skip at #66).

Originally Posted by Zil

Than again, I think the ranger ought to be more concerned with protecting possible Seers, rather than the Hunter!
And I still say a revealed Hunter would be more damaging to the Lions later.

#96. Mac makes a list, saying he has “no clue either way” about skip "said plenty, but I don't know what to do with him”.

#99. Kit votes skip.

Originally Posted by Kit

Not as random as I thought it would be, but built on flimsy reasoning. Skip has been the only one to really draw my attention. His belief that having a known innocent in exchange for a secret hunter doesn't feel right. It feels like he's pushing for something that could and probably will be harmful for the village by drawing ranger resources to protect someone who has no knowledge of anyone else's role and therefore their only benefit is being a known innocent for a day or two.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip2, Lottie 1, Zil 1

#105. Lommy makes a list, describing skip as "notable: easy vote (I feel like Gil and Skip himself are easy Day1 lynch targets because they think fast and sometimes a bit kneejerkily and are active enough to draw attention)."

#107. G55 makes a list: "skip - I don't agree with what he's said, and I don't like his vote, but I can understand his vote. At this point I think it's much easier to jump on him than claim that he jumped on Gil. So semi-vote candidate."

#110. Wilwa votes skip. "Because his ideas about the hunter were odd and I don't think they were really in our best interest. Not a lot to go on, I know, but my best hunch right now.”

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip3, Lottie 1, Zil 1

#110. Zil votes skip, as he "can't see anyone else who pings the radar as much”.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip4, Lottie 1, Zil 1

#116.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Iiiinteresting!

What the ??? at this bandwagon?!

Also anyone else notice that the second and the third voter (Lottie and Sally) voted the one that had voted before them. Weird.

This is where the backlash against the skipwaggon starts.

#117. G55 says, "I can see why skip is suspicious, but I'm rather baffled at how centred the votes are around him. I don't like it. Seems too easy for... certain individuals.” Votes Mac.

#118. Nog reacts to G55’s post at #107.

Originally Posted by Nog

Are you truly saying that "it's much easier to jump on him so I'd consider doing it"?

On a related issue - I do not think a Skip-lion would have proposed openly for the Targaryen to reveal... a lion should not be controversial but rather quire careful on the early stages when the lynches can be pretty random (D1 especially).

#121.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Skip is fishy, but he is always fishy (sorry! ). Why he might be a wolf: his vote was an easy one, and combined with the fishyness, it's not a very trustworthy combination. Why he might be innocent: sudden bandwagons against someone are usually against an innocent, my experience tells me. Wolves hardly go down without an objection. Then again, not sure if that rule applies in this big a village.

Of the others that have been voted this far, I'm not very suspicious of Inzil, Gil or Mac, and Lottie isn't on the top of my list either.

Currently thinking about voting Galadriel or Wilwa. Could also go for any of the under the radar club, or even Lottie or Skip if the other options are bad.

(This post x’d with #118.)

#122.G55 answers Nog at #188.

Originally Posted by G55

No, as in I can see where thes suspicion is coming from, and I agree with a good deal of it, but I'm also wary that a lot of it seems to have been spoonfed somehow. As in, I think the points against skip are quite true, but they came seemingly out of nowhere, making you think like you've felt this way all the time. Except that I'm aware that I did not come up with all that on my own and I'm being spoonfed suspicion.

#123. Rikae comments on G55’s vote-post: "Offhandedly cast suspicion at Skip voters, then make an unexplained vote for someone else?"

#124.

Originally Posted by Greenie

As others have pointed out, this was a very easy vote, and the reasoning looks a little far-fetched. But it's also Day 1, and I seem to recall an innocent Skip being lynched for stuff like this before, so I'd prefer to go for someone else.

#126. (replying to Rikae at #123), G55 says "I think I've defended skip more than cast suspicion on him, and b) the vote is hardly unexplained.”

#128. Replying to G55, Rikae says she meant she was casting suspicion on skip-voters, but now says they’re worrying her too:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I expressed my initial suspicion partly to test the waters, though I was considering voting him, it makes me uneasy when people agree with me too quickly. I mean, no one was making any accusations, and then all of a sudden several people jump on the first thing resembling a case, without any further analysis? Fishy.

Votes Wilwa.

#129. Greeniethinks G55 is “a little off” for apparently trying to cast suspicion on both skip and his voters.
(this post x’d with #127.)

#131. Mac says, "While I'm not feeling particularly well about Skip myself, I do not like that bandwaggon at all."

#132.Enca votes Nogrod.

#133. Eönwë votes skip, saying, "At the moment, the thing that stands out most to me is Skip's encouragement of a Targ reveal”.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 1, Mac 1, Wilwa 1, Nog1

#134. Volo says, "I agree that at first smelling there's a nasty odor to the skip votes.”

#135. Wyth says:

Originally Posted by Wyth

I was initially going to vote on Skip just because he seemed to stand out. But again, my ideas about it were swayed with how bringing this much attention to himself would not be good strategy. Or would double psychology here be a good defense? Either way, I'm not so sure.

Votes Mac.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 1, Mac 2, Wilwa 1, Nog1

#136.

Originally Posted by Eomer

We got a bandwagon, baybay!

But given how many WW games there have been (this must be the 8 millionth or something, right) I have to think that the villains won't have voted for Skip like that. It just looks too bad. They would be smarter than that... I think.

#138. Mac votes Zil.

#139. Nog believes there is at least one lion in the Skip-waggon.

#140.

Originally Posted by Gil

I feel that Skips poor choice of words when accusing me did lead to the bandwagon against him. I know the feeling, I have done it countless times.

Votes Boro.

#147. Lommy votes Wilwa.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 2, Mac 2, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1

#151. Eomer is "leaning toward lynching Wilwa rather than Skip”, thinking the latter is "more of a wrong-place-wrong-time kind of villager/guest”. Is “very curious about the bandwagon.

#154. Greenie "would prefer Wilwa over Skip, but Mac over Wilwa.”

#159. Greenie votes Mac.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 2, Mac 3, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1

#161. Nogrod votes Mac.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 2, Mac 4, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1

#162. Eomer says, “the Mac-voters, G55 and Wyth, are also very curious…”

#163. Volo votes G55.

#166. Eomer votes Zil, saying he is "smart enough to deflect any complaints about bandwagon-jumping”.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 3, Mac 4, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1


Thoughts. Well! I agree with Eomer both bandwagons are quite curious. One conclusion we can draw is that the Skip-waggon was not a simple attempt to save a baddie, as only two other players (Zil and Mac) were in any danger, and their bandwaggons (if you can call the Zil-votes that) arose after the Skip-waggon. Undoubtedly, skip did plenty to make himself suspicious, yet the general pattern of “everyone jumps on skip", followed by “everyone denounces everyone jumping on skip” is very odd. I mean, yes, that is how it works with bandwagons, yet I’ve never seen such a sudden switching on and off of mass-suspicion.

Most noteworthy:

Rikae was the first to express actual suspicion on skip, then later got cold feet, suspected people for suspecting him and voted someone else. (Bear in mind that known innocent G55 did much the same thing.)

Zil and Kit kept on arguing against skip'splan after there seemed to me much point to doing so– it was clear by then that it wasn’t going to gain any support. (Mind you skip just wouldn’t back down– people can develop tunnel-vision in such cases.) Zil's vote (or the reasons for it) also strikes me as a little too easy.

Mac, as noted, suddenly seems almost to agree with skip's plan for no real reason. Why? A baddie suddenly seeing a chance to dispose of the hunter?

Lommy casts suspicion on the skip-voters, while still leaving herself the option of voting him (see #121).


EDIT:X’d since my last post. Really. This took ages and for some reason I can’t refresh. So I have no idea what’s happened in the meantime yet. Just letting you all know.
Edit 2: clarification.

[Nogrod]

The issue of the Skip-wagon...

Yeah. Both instinct and experience say there should be lion(s) there.

Still I'd like to add a qualification to the pot, and that is the fact that the lions really need to do that kind of thing only if one (or two) of them is - or there is some reason for them to believe is going to be - under pressure.

If the lions have no problems, they normally love to make the kind of "insignificant" votes aka. not ones that lead into lynches as then they are not responsible of lynching an innocent others will look so closely the next Day (the power of a succesful wolf-on-wolf lynch-vote is exactly the mirror-image of the aforementioned principle!). But if one (or two) of them is in trouble, they'd love to hop any wagon that would go faster than the one including one of them.


Skip-wagon look pretty fishy looking at the reasons people gave for their votes, but the more votes Skip gathered, the easier it was to give one more.

So were the lions in trouble then when Skip-wagon got some speed? That depends on whether some of them had already garnered suspicion - or votes even - before the Skip-mania started.


People who got votes before the Skip-train started rolling were: Gil, Lottie and Inzil.

Of those Lottie received her vote after she had herself already given Skip his first vote. Looks the most innocent of the three - which does not mean she is innocent by any default because of the order of the votes.

Gil voted a lot later for Boro when Skip already had 5 votes - which could be said to be almost a throwaway vote, and exactly kind of vote a lion might wish to do (see above). So not involved with Skip whose death had a high probability at the time of his vote.

Inzil again is interestingly involved both in being voted and suspected by a few people - and pushing Skip into clear lead by his vote. From this POV he looks the most suspicious to me. But is that enough to lynch him... I'm not sure.

Kitanna didn't have a vote herself at the time she voted for Skip but she could be seen as one of the key-players in opening the path to the Skip-wagon being the second voter - and Wilwa notoriusly was the third before Inzil. But Im not sure how confident I am with that thought either.

Food for thought, then.


EDIT: X'd with some novels...