WW XXIX Dor-en-Gaur

[Macalaure]

It starts with Volo. He's weird (and probably possessed by Nilp). Still, my gut feeling says he's innocently weird. The whole banter between Ang and Volo is one hoard of weirdness. To me it looks like two innocents slugging it out until one is no more.
Celuien's vote is very weird. Stir up the quiet part of the village? Naria's probably not silent because she chooses to. What's to stir with her? Weird.
Now, Farael. We-eird! I don't like his case against Lommy, which doesn't mean I trust her (I don't: she's weird). Maybe Farael is just his common weird self ( ), but I'm not sure.
Rune's reaction to my suspicion is weird as well. With one hand you offer friendship, with the other you threaten to go after me? By the way, I don't suspect you because you said little - you can't make many points so early - but because you really seemed to avoid being controversial, just like Celuien.

Oh, before I forget, there was one thing not weird: The points raised about Lal. I can see where they're coming from. To add one (about Rune's innocence):

as is Rune, who was quite endearingly eager last night to get into the game and who wisely pointed out the "trust nobody" line.

Um, I don't mean to belittle that wisdom, but isn't that more or less common sense? Why do you point it out like that?

Weird.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Farael

You don't know me so well, do you?

Probably not. . .I have seen you be very confident before, but seing it repeated does not make me understand it.

The same could be said about Gil's obcesion to confuse. . .

Anyways I have to leave very soon so I shall cast my vote now. . .and It will have to be for Mac. He just pushed my buttons and I do not have any good theories yet.

++Macalaure

Edit: Cross posted with Mac

[Macalaure]

So much for the offering friendship theory of mine.

I'm moving Rune down on my suspicion list.

[Anguirel]

I don't actually think much weirdness is going on; rather a predictable soup of pettiness, defensiveness, and straw-grasping!

I still think Volo a mass of contradictions: a fellow who can, in the same post, posit the idea of voting for Boro and accuse me of defending him a lukewarm fashion is a pretty odd fish. Or wolf.

I think Farael and I differ on one important point. He is willing to jump on Lommy for posting "nonsense"; ironically she tends to be critical of "nonsense" herself, and has in turn voted for Durelin because of it. I really disagree with the concept of "nonsense". Maybe I'm being too merry, but isn't so-called nonsense pretty near to having fun? Which is what I'm in this lark for...

Something of a split is developing between those who believe in "trusting nobody" and those who believe in trusting where possible, led especially vocally by Farael. He claims that if someone has talked and acted manifestly sensibly, the odds are that they're friendly. Be careful. It was relying on "odds" like that that recently got me hammered by Nilp. I am for constant vigilance myself, I'm afraid.

I hope, though, that Mith isn't a wolf. She seems like a breath of fresh air and it would terribly annoying to have to help lynch her...

For now, I shall put my scruples about grudgebearing aside and vote

++VOLO

[Lalwendë]

Mac, I think Rune, along with Boro, Firefoot, Celuien and Gil-galad was just one of the early starters and so naturally fell into being suspected. I don't think that's fair - the only one of the early adopters I have a hunch about is Gil-galad. The rest, well, they 'look foul but feel fair' right now. No insult to your fizzogs intended by the way.

[Boromir88]

Lal

However I'm still wondering about this whole Gil-galad/Boro thing. Is it in fact one huge red herring set up by them? More analysis needed but like I say, I will trust my excellent gut feelings this time...

I wouldn't do this as a wolf. Accept it or don't, that's up to you, I can just tell you I am one of the easiest people to predict (just ask the phantom who knows my style so well I'm scared to be in a village with him). If I have something to hide (either wolf or a gifted) I'm more cautious and try not to attract suspicion. When I'm an ordinary I come out firing and it often gets me into trouble, but at least we get some action going that may be of great help in the days to come...even if it does end up getting my lynched early.

[Lalwendë]

Boro.... I understand where you're coming from. This is much better than the old "he says too much!" or "She is too quiet!" or even the "Why has he started early?" thing. I might be quite new to this lark but I'm not wholly green and I saw that happen in my first game and I've seen it here. I happen to think you are innocent (at least for now, you know how things can change in a suspicious village!) - if you were guilty then it would mean Anguirel and Gil-galad had been in cahoots to drag you into the sights of everyone and from what Anguirel says, I think he could be innocent right now; I certainly don't have enough evidence to convict him at present and happen to think he was going along with early hunches.

Votes so far:
mormegil -> Rune (Rune 1)
Gil-Galad -> Boro (Rune 1, Boro 1)
Roa_Aoife -> Gil (Rune 1, Boro 1, Gil 1)
Lommy -> Durelin (Rune 1, Boro 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1)
Firefoot -> Boro (Boro 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1)
Rikae -> Anguirel (Boro 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1, Ang 1)
Kath -> Boromir88 (Boro 3, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1, Ang 1)
Celuien -> Naria (Boro 3, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1, Ang 1, Naria 1)
Farael -> Lommy (Boro 3, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1, Ang 1, naria 1, Lommy 1)
Volo -> Durelin (Boro 3, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 2, Ang 1, Naria 1, Lommy1)
Rune -> Mac (Boro 3, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 2, Ang 1, Mac 1, Naria 1, Lommy 1)
Anguirel -> Volo (Boro 3, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 2, Ang 1, Naria 1, Lommy 1, Mac 1, Volo1)

That's a wide spread. But there are trends I don't agree with.

I am now at the point of considering if my gut feelings are correct. I hate deciding things, I'm such a Libran.

[Mithalwen]

Sorry I am back .... I am a bit worried by the number of votes and having skimmed through I am not reassured at all by Volo .... sorry old chum but being asked questions is part of the deal .... however I really want to have a good look at what has been said. See if Boromir really does look sus or if he is being stitched up. Whether my instincts have foundation....

And as for my online times Lal ..I'll post on the village notice board...

[Farael]

I think that those who have mentioned the wide spread of votes are right... so I'm going to narrow it down a little bit

--Loomy

and yet, she's still my prime suspect... I just don't see any chance of getting her lynched, other than proving that..

++Volo who has been defending her is a wolf.

If I'm wrong about him, I might feel a bit better about Loomy but I still think there's something fishy about her.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Nogrod, the Mysterious Stranger

But three of you have been armed with swords that make those beasts back away. And one of you possesses a golden dagger.

Note that one of the hidden roles isn't mentioned in all of the talk!

Originally Posted by Nogrod, the Storyteller

“This is a sword of the order of Thorondor. Even a Gaur will be afraid of it and pull back when seeing one. And a Gaur indeed has infected your village. It will now be your task to defend those of you who are innocent during the nights. Good luck to you villager and pick the ones you defend wisely!” That was the message the Eagles told the frightful villagers who hid inside their homes and waited for the worst. After leaving the swords in front of the doors the Eagles pulled up again, now already looking at the scent of the Gaur.

It doesn't tell the quantity of the swords, and is clearly says "protect", so we should assume that those are the Rangers. Probably no more than three.

Originally Posted by Nogrod, the Rulemaster

There are three werewolves to kill the villagers.
There are three rangers to defend the villagers.
There are three others with some specialities (which will be hinted at / revealed in the narrations).

Three others! And so far we know only about the "Golden Dagger", I bet the Golden Dagger is made for killing wolves, probably not like a Hunter.

Originally Posted by Nogrod, the Rulemaster

- Of those three undisclosed ones two would basically be on the side of the villagers and one on the side of the wolves. They could all benefit the cause they are fighting for but they could also harm their cause. The one being on the wolves' side would not be counted as a wolf but as a villager in the last Days tally, but would win along with the wolves if they win.

It can well be possible that there is a Hunter, a Soldier/Assassin (a person that may kill straight away, the Golden Dagger) and a Cobbler.
So far I see hints about only the Golden Dagger, the hints don't tell the role.

Originally Posted by Nogrod, the Rulemaster

- As long as there are three wolves they will have two kills / Night. As soon as one of them gets killed they will only have one kill / Night.

This would talk for the theory about an Alpha Wolf and two normal/weaker wolves (as the storywolf bit them only quickly). I think that the Alpha Wolf doesn't know the other wolves and the other way round.
The Alpha Wolf probably has some special ability.

Originally Posted by Nogrod, the Rulemaster

- The rangers will start not knowing the identities of each other. But due to certain circumstances they might learn each others identities and with good luck they might even earn the right to PM during the Days! (the last one would require some especially good luck or real cunning "teamplay" and daring by them)

I still think that the certain circumstances are the Rangers protecting the same person and when successfully they will get the right of PM.

I am doing this mostly for my own fun, as WW is just a game to enjoy.

[Anguirel]

This absurdly wide spread of votes, which I have helped contribute to, I fear, need not be completely disastrous providing people show flexibility and a willingness to retract. If my Volo case does not receive credible support, I'll probably plonk my vote where it's of more use.

Gil-Galad and Firefoot, your votes seem rather in the nature of a stab in the dark. If you only meant them half-heartedly, it would be a shame to see Boro done to death on their account. If you're still here, do have a careful think.

Of the candidates so far, Volo aside, I probably suspect Macalaure the most - he does seem to have been toying with Rune a bit, in a manner which reminds me of my own methods of wolf conciliation.

[Volo]

Is mormegil always like this on Day1?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lalwendë, you misunderstand me. I was not going for humour. I am honestly eager to see someone from this village taken down a peg. That'll put things in perspective for you; it'll do you good. It's true that some of my forefathers have been jolly types and this is probably what's confusing you. I am extremely cold-hearted and mean.

Blatantly copying Anguirel here but I don't care if it looks suspicious. (Anyway, I would have pointed it out had I been here at the time.) Volo certainly appears to be the cocky wolf. He comes swaggering in, making grand judgments, and appears very confrontational when questioned. He points out Farael's boldness in his case against Thinlómien, which strikes me as funny because Volo's whole demeanour is bold and strutting. Better lynch him soon.

Farael's case against Thinlómien had me nodding my head. Of course, I always suspect Lommy (and she me). My acceptance and agreement with Mormegil's bloodlust is not suspicious: just indicative of the fact that we are both horrible people.

And the whole idea of a Gil-Galad, Boromir88, Anguirel, whoever open collusion is severe over-thinking. I wouldn't even think about Day One tricks and super-conspiracies until we near the end and have stuff to look back on. If they can help it, they won't even be mentioning each other by name.

[Anguirel]

Quiet and bloodthirsty? Well, yes, if not to quite this extent, I suppose...

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

He points out Farael's boldness in his case against Thinlómien, which strikes me as funny because Volo's whole demeanour is bold and strutting. Better lynch him soon.

I'm just as straight forward as always, as wolf and man. The whole point is to look the same when wolf and man, because it would be plain stupid if there was a sign by which you could see my innocence.

But yes, grudges...

So far Firefoot seems completely reasonable and calm, of course anything can mean anything in this game and I think that the end result is pretty often plain random.
No sense in lynching her toDay.

[Lalwendë]

Even given the stern words from Eomer and Mithalwen there will be no more umming and ahhing from me. I think I've weighed the evidence so far and if I analyse it even more I shall convince myself away from my first choice and I learned the error of my ways in that first game not so long ago. So...

++Gil-galad

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ha! I just had another look through and the person I pinpointed was Firefoot.

Her vote seems a bit...I don't know. It seems quite reasonable but also easy. Especially voting that early. Gil-Galad because he talks about himself being suspicious, even though he was only (to my mind) playing the Confused Philosopher role.

And voting for Boromir88 because of his guessing in the innocence of some and not of others. I'm not sure. It seems a bit convenient to me. And I think an innocent might have added another qualifier, such as "Of course, I'm really not sure."

She seems too reasonable and it's getting to your heads. I think we should lynch her.

[Boromir88]

I might vote for Volo simply for being counter-constructive. I think we're past all the early talk about the rangers and the golden dagger, it's time to get down to business.

Anguirel

I probably suspect Macalaure the most - he does seem to have been toying with Rune a bit

Hmm...I was actually thinking the exact opposite. I think Rune is out of sync so to say. I know he doesn't post as much as a lot on here, but his posts I always get a sense that he is trying to help out, trying to contribute. Today, I'm just not getting that...

I guess now I will have to hear talks about me being over defencive, but if you have followed my recent history you will know that I have major issues with these kind of accusations and find them to be with very little merit.

I don't think it's over-defensive, I just think it looks like you are trying to convince people that's the answer. If the 'accusations' have so little merit, according to you, why get bothered by it?

I also really have no clue what the big hub about Farael is. And those who are trying to throw suspicion at Farael look might suspicious themselves. Why would a wolf make a post like that? I had a lot of suspicion around me, I had almost the entire village talking about me, so why would a wolf wish to spread things around and get the village considering others? The bigger the crowd the safer the wolf, Farael's post I took as trying to get us to look at people who haven't been talked about much. I don't think Lommy is suspicious, but Farael by trying to get the village to look at other people that have gone unmentioned definitely looks like an innocent. And those that I think are trying to make too much out of that post, to get suspicion on Farael, look far more suspicious than Farael's post!

Edit: Humorgous x-posting

[Volo]

Gil-Galad, only one post to take into account. He does exactly what he suspects Boromir is doing (nearly, Gil does have a better reason to do so). A bad reason still, but... dunno. Anything.
Actually I bet that he isn't an ordo, whatever he is.
And may the shift-button be with you, man...


X:d with everything since my last post.

[Anguirel]

That's rather convincing, actually, Eomer...I wonder what the waif herself will say to it.

What do you think of Macalaure, out of interest? Anything in particular?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

For my whole life I have suspected Macalaure. He must be very exasperated with me by now.

But to answer your question, I would quite like to see him lynched.

Looking at the votes, I know I want Boromir88 to stick around; so I will probably vote for one of his rivals.

[Mithalwen]

I am just on Page 2 of my in depth read through but checking back ..Volo is looking shiftier by the minute .. is getting a bit hysterical and is this fixation on the special roles a desperate attempt to look useful?

To me he is far more suspicious than Boro .....

Gil also is worrying me - starts merely parroting the previous post then vote for Boro... Is he trusting that we will say Gil being Gil and ignore him? But we can't . He is the sort that wolves leave alive for the confusion factor ....and so we may have to answer the question ourselves ..

[Volo]

I have a feeling that Celuien has a higher probability of turning out a wolf than the other. She has been talking about the story-hints just like me, but didn't throw a single opinion on reality during the whole day. That's one quiet wolf. Consider voting her tomorrow if nothing better happens, I feel like I'm going down already today, pity.

She does promise to come later today, but that would be safe.

Originally Posted by Mith

Volo is looking shiftier by the minute .. is getting a bit hysterical and is this fixation on the special roles a desperate attempt to look useful?

Haha! Wait 'til you play with me again.

[Anguirel]

Votes at the time of writing:

Boro 3
Rune 1
Gil 2
Durelin 2
Ang 1
Naria 1
Mac 1
Volo 2

3 hours 'till the deadline...

[Volo]

Rune I trust. He hasn't said too much useful, but my guts tell me not to suspect him too much. The only thing that I find really strange is this

+/+Macalaure

Edit: Cross posted with Mac

Rune should have had enough time to explain this one better, as Mac just posted a major post at the same time as Rune voted for him.

I think this is worth noticing!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Though my head doubts this wisdom, there is an invisible rope keeping me from voting Volo. What can it be?

Casually states "I feel like I'm going down already today, pity."

He's almost daring us to vote for him.

The other serious contender for me out of those with votes is Macalaure.

[mormegil]

Admittedly I'm only to post 49 but while reading I has an epiphany of sorts. I don't believe there is a rule for the Rangers to protect themselves. They are by far the most important in this village. They can manage it so that they can protect each other each night and not protect the same person two nights in a row. At worst this will make it 4 villagers and 3 wolves at the end. If you think about it, most of us innocents really aren't invaluable, if any of us at all, ergo we can die at nights and be the night fodder while those left try to pick off wolves.

Wait...do the rangers know each other yet? I don't think they do...CRAP! That whole idea went up...well if you do end up knowing each other use this as it will help ensure victory. The biggest problem is you need three to pull if off.

Now to try and catch up a bit more.

[Volo]

Rikae is so nice that I no way suspect her. Her vote also makes perfect sense, who wouldn't want to vote the scary big Anguirel. No wolvery noticed what so ever...


X:d with mormegil

[Mithalwen]

Of course there is one valid reason for being deliberately suicidal but I think it is a bit early..... and if Volo were the Hunter (if we have a hunter ...) then it would be a bit early to show his hand .. but if that were the case I should be the last to judge a gifted for panicking.....

It could just be trying to make us think "would a wolf be so reckless?" Well yes they might - Roa' words on Gil might be as easily applied here...

[Boromir88]

Mith, if Volo was in anyway gifted I can't see why a gifted would act this way. Therefor he's either a suicidal wolf that sees his fate and is simply stirring a pot of confusion. Or he's an ordinary that is having fun and wants to die. Either way, it looks like he wants to die and I'll be more than happy to oblige with that wish.

[Volo]

No way would the Hunter know whom to kill yet! That's totally insane. If you, Mith, really want to know how I tend to act then read my earlier games, there aren't many posts to read.
I'm saying that you can't know what I am by thinking how recless/strange/wierd/cryptic I act. My fenrisification was the only time people were right with my role.


X:d with Boromir. NO, I do not want to die in this game. So I do prefer that you don't kill me.

[Mithalwen]

Well I didn't say it was likely behaviour but I thought that what might be making Eomer doubt, and only the fact that being gifted made me more unhinged than usual stopped me ruling it out entirely ....

[Mithalwen]

Exactly ...... but you aren't making me any more inclined not to vote for you on the belief you are about to become the first "Fenris Wolf and Bar"....

[Boromir88]

Volo's I really can't pinpoint Volo's actions as a wolf or an innocent, they seem more cobbleresque...and as Nogrod hinted there is one amongst the village who doesn't know who the wolves are, yet is still on their side and wins along with them. I wonder...

[Macalaure]

First, a random thought about trust and mistrust.
Of course, you can't trust anyone (unless a proven seer confirmes them innocent). You simply can't. We've all been in situations (I think) where we were absolutely sure someone was innocent and then woke up with a dagger in our back. Then again, you simply cannot mistrust 17 people at a time. You go insane.
You have to trust a portion of the village, take up their points, consider them honest (even if they're contrary to your own. In fact, especially then) and make up your own mind then. I think the key is to question your trust frequently and don't set it in stone.


Current state of the trust:

People I trust (at the moment)
me
Rikae
Boromir
Roa

People I trust somewhat
mormegil (no reason for mistrust)
Anguirel (fishy, but he's always fishy)
Volo (I sense a trend towards him. Slowly there! He said a lot that naturally makes everyone suspicious. I maintain that he's genuine and innocent)
Firefoot
Mithalwen

People who seem weird
Lommy (don't know what to do with her)
Gil (looks pretty much like Gil. I always suspect him in a way)
Farael

People I have no feeling about
Naria (hasn't posted)
Durelin (hasn't posted sustantially)

People I suspect
Lalwende (little more than a hunch)
Rune (too uncontroversial in the beginning. Better lately)
Celuien (too uncontroversial. Only talked about the roles and defended people. Said she feels good about everyone so far and votes someone who hasn't posted. But then, Celuien is nice whatever her role)
Eomer (I have no problem with people suspecting me (see Rune), but I like to hear their reasons)


We have retrackies, so I'm putting another name into the urn, just to see what happens:

++Celuien

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++VOLO

Oh no, I certainly do not think he's gifted. I was merely saying that there's some doubt in this course of action. Still I'd rather vote him and tie him with Boromir88 than any of the other immediate options open to me.

Currently thinking the wolves are Volo, Firefoot and Thinlómien. And now I must go to tend to my precious bees.

[Mithalwen]

Wel that would make sense but clearly I have missed something or have misinterpreted ..... I am afraid I jumped into the village posts having thought I had read and understood the narrative before kick off....

[Volo]

Ok, Mith, whatever. I am sorry that I have been more on the way then of help, but I like to talk when I want and now I want to talk, so suspect me if you feel like it.

But about Boromir (uh, those short analysis' are maybe a complete waste of time, but a few points come up now and then):
It is pretty probable that Boromir and Celuien are wolves! Boromir suspects her, but not too seriously and without "points".
Otherwise Boromir does not feel wolvish, except for one post.
Now he says that he is easy to predict, if it really is so, then Boromir plays badly! This is a great way to feel innocent and clever from a wolf.

So I would like to know if it's easy to predict him. ??


EDIT: X:d with #114 ->
Eomer, I wish to strangle you...

[Anguirel]

Volo, this is a thick question, but are you being sarcastic about Rikae? Because if you are, I kind of see where you're coming from.

I still have the option to retract and may yet use it. Let's see how the situation develops. I'm not entirely comfortable with the impetuous Volo's death, but less uncomfortable with it than with most other outcomes.

[mormegil]

--Rune

++Volo

I know that this is horrible but I really haven't caught up yet and the deadline is near enough and work busy enough that there is no way I can. I do trust Eomer enough that I'll follow along with his vote. Again don't expect this to happen again