Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[the phantom]

Ooo, I like Wolves that are willing to play ball. We'll have to think about this...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I figure I'd go with it. I'd of course want the Lottie lynch to take place, but I'd tease Lottie as if I was in the competing pack. Maybe tell her Mac wasn't in my pack, and say that even without me we were going to win etc. Basically I'd try to tempt her remaining packmate(s) into Night killing me.

Not quite following you here, unless you're talking about an ordo sacrifice.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Also, Lottie should definitely adopt Nog as one of her packmates in order to throw us off by making us think she only has one partner left. If you do it, dearie, I promise I'll pretend to believe it just to annoy Nog.

Wouldn't it be cute if Lottie and phantom were actually packmates?

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Also, if Lottie didn't lie, we at least know who's responsible for the dead Europeans.

*gasp*

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yeah, Lottie, *eat* that!

Lommy posted in the living thread about having to watch me crack up laughing at this thread. This was one of those moments.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now, kitchen calls!

Ooh what did you cook?

Originally Posted by Rikae

I think it would be best if we discussed who to scry but let Agan & Greenie lead the voting.

I think this is a very good plan, especially given it's easier for us to lead than to follow. Timezone-wise, I mean. I hope Legate turns out innocent too because what's better than dead Europeans controlling this thread?

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal?

Sadly, your reaction to Nerwen's reveal wasn't as convincing as to Rikae's reveal. Anyway - what do you think she was up to?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Well then. I will agree to it as an experiment if you agree to include an explanation(s) of Nerwen's PM dream as part of the package.

Scroll up then. I thought about some possibilities up there. None of them seem likely, but one of them is probably true. (Unless something completely different is going on.) Obviously I can't explain them. I don't know what Kuru is up to with his secret rules either.

[Nogrod]

Top level argumentation from the 'Downs Werewolf

Originally Posted by the phantom

This makes her look rather good, as she doesn't give the official reasoning for killing Rune, and she doesn't seem like she would've wanted to kill me.

Firefoot and Lottie could indeed be a company rather than rivals. A bold tactics but in this kind of a game possibly worthwhile. With Lottie going like maniac there clearly is room for Firefoot to say "do you honestly listen to that madWoman" - and she can nicely remind everyone that naturally the wolves don't know the real identities of their rival-pack so Lottie is hitting in the dark as anyone else and well, is just a raving lunatic.

Kind of a nice trick, actually. If they pulled it.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Agan

Not quite following you here, unless you're talking about an ordo sacrifice.

Exactly. But how likely is it that other Ordos would do what I would do? (Basically, does my reaction matter at all in determining whether Ff reacted properly?).

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Agan

Anyway - what do you think she was up to?

It's kind of hard to get motivated to post some long-ish maybe-helpful stuff if nobody appears to be reading my posts anyway.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nog

Top level argumentation from the 'Downs Werewolf

That is a good argument for Lommy in this case. If player X is against killing player Y, but then player Y is Night killed, it is less likely that player X was a part of it (packmates would've had to go strictly against that player). Yes, that assumes player X is telling the truth, but it certainly seemed that she was.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Some things I noticed:

• Both Lottiepack and Macpack had a reason to kill phantom. Neither had a more likely reason to kill Rune than the other.
• I think it's certainly interesting that everybody who's been night killed so far (except Rune) has suspected both Lottie and Firefoot.
• On NIGHT 3, both Rikae and Legate had suspected Mac before but felt better about him later.
• It almost feels like both wolf packs wanted to frame Greenie.
• Everybody who died in the latter set found morm more or less innocent.
• Firefoot and Mac as fellows doesn't make sense but Firefoot and Lottie might. Will check later.

Anything else?

Pretty good work there, Agan. For that matter, obviously if it comes to reasons for killing people, there might have been other reasons than just because they suspected someone; they might have just seemed Seerish (based on behavior, based on suspecting someone the Wolf-pack thought was a Wolf from another pack etc.). But generally, yeah.

Originally Posted by the phantom

If he's a Wolf he's nicely mimicking the innocent sound. We'll know for certain soon enough.

Thanks, you will. But I am innocent anyway.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm thinking about being productive and giving my thoughts about who Lottie's fellows and who the other three wolves might be, but since you guys wouldn't take it at face value anyway, what's the point. Worse, you would probably try to turn it all upside down for any hint of who "my packmates" are.

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal?

I believe you are innocent! Now, tell me?

Originally Posted by the phantom

Your mom is thinking about being productive.

Now now, guys... behave

Originally Posted by the phantom

Also, has it already been noted that Lottie's plea to her pack and the village to kill Firefoot may have been cover for someone in her own pack? Telling her own pack (Firefoot) obviously wouldn't make her kill herself, and if the village tries it FF can just tell them not to be silly and do what Lottie wanted them to do, since obviously Lottie can't be trusted. Just saying.

Yes, that was one of the possibilities that crossed my mind: but it would still expose Firefoot, and since people know there are two packs, it would be dangerous. Of course, unless Lottie counted on the villagers not lynching FF because they would think "let's not waste our lynch on FF, the other pack will get her" and the Wolves from the other pack thinking "haha, Lottie probably framed an innocent, let's leave her around for the village to lynch."

Personally I hope it is not the case, although anything is of course possible. Depends also on the village, and on the Wolves.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Hilariously, I wasn't at all truthful about my own kill. I will offer you two scenarios, and I do solemnly swear that one of them is true.

1. My pack did not kill Rune. I simply found morm's reaction to Sally's suggestion suspicious.

2. My pack did kill Rune, but not primarily because we thought he was a wolf. We did think he might have been Gifted.

Like I said, one of these two scenarios is the truth. You may choose which you think is more likely.

Just reminds me of those old logical games. What if you put it that way for us, for instance, so that we could decipher it? You know, such as: "I will tell you three statements, one contains two truths, one two falsehoods, and one contains one truth and one falsehood. 1. I did not kill Rune. I killed Legate. 2. The other pack killed Legate. I killed Rikae. 3. I did not kill Rikae. I killed Rune."

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Ooh what did you cook?

A late-night salad (lettuce, new cucumbers and baby-tomatoes) of smoked whitefish (cisco) and new potatoes with eggs and dill-oil.

It was decent for an early summer night. Missed the cool Riesling though.

[the phantom]

Ah, you know, I do recall one of your theories, Mac.
(goes to get it)

Originally Posted by Mac

So the seer is allowed, maybe once in the game, to send two of their dreams to one person of their choice. They send the identities of two wolves they've dreamed of, but they chose poorly, and sent it to evil Nerwen. Nerwen identifies one wolf from the other pack (Lottie) and feeds her to the mob. The other wolf is one of her own, and she switches him/her, instead naming me, who she and others have been suspecting all along.

But this doesn't make sense either. The seer must've dreamed of some innocent, some of which should still be alive. They would've chosen one of them, and not taken a risk.

Why couldn't the power have been sending THAT night's dreams (and that night the Seer picked you and Lottie). Thus Nerwolf could feed the village Lottie and pretend you were guilty and never be caught (because the dream went to her rather than the Seer.

How about that as an explanation?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

It's kind of hard to get motivated to post some long-ish maybe-helpful stuff if nobody appears to be reading my posts anyway.

I am actually interested.

Also, we're getting some (probably) quite interesting things going on here when the Day starts, so if you Mac want to be heard, or want to help, I think this could be the time.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Exactly. But how likely is it that other Ordos would do what I would do? (Basically, does my reaction matter at all in determining whether Ff reacted properly?).

I would probably have reacted similarly to Firefoot, but then, I have a tendency - wolf or innocent - to defend myself vocally against poor suspicions (you could argue all suspicion seems groundless to me though ). And in this case, Firefoot had indeed voted for Mac at a critical-ish moment.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

It's kind of hard to get motivated to post some long-ish maybe-helpful stuff if nobody appears to be reading my posts anyway.

Aw sorry Mac I went back and saw the post phantom just quoted here - I'd forgotten about it because that's pretty much when friends used strong language to tell me to stop stalking the game on my phone.

I want to say I'm not convinced of your guilt. At the moment it seems more convenient to assume Nerwen was telling the truth, but I want you to know I'll listen to whatever you have to say. I kind of wish we'd checked you toNIGHT just to be on the safe side about this, but it is true that Legate has more leads.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

A late-night salad (lettuce, new cucumbers and baby-tomatoes) of smoked whitefish (cisco) and new potatoes with eggs and dill-oil.

Sounds lovely! I had a nicoise salad and actually now that I started talking about it, I think I'm going to get another plate.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Why couldn't the power have been sending THAT night's dreams (and that night the Seer picked you and Lottie). Thus Nerwolf could feed the village Lottie and pretend you were guilty and never be caught (because the dream went to her rather than the Seer.

How about that as an explanation?

This occurred to me earlier.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

what's better than dead Europeans controlling this thread?

Julius Caesar, Napoleon and a few others would want a word with you.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It was decent for an early summer night. Missed the cool Riesling though.

I think we all miss Mac and Rikae's Riesling even more...

[Macalaure]

Why couldn't the power have been sending THAT night's dreams

Possible, I suppose. It doesn't make a whole lot of difference whether it was the most recent dreams or the seer's "best of", though.

(and that night the Seer picked you and Lottie)

Not Lottie and me, Lottie and one of her own packmates. She couldn't be truthful about the second dream, so she substituted me. I know how full of holes this theory is as well.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Julius Caesar, Napoleon and a few others would want a word with you.

QUID RIDES, VERVEX?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Agan

that's pretty much when friends used strong language to tell me to stop stalking the game on my phone.

Tell your friends that we are more important.

Originally Posted by Mac

Not Lottie and me, Lottie and one of her own packmates. She couldn't be truthful about the second dream, so she substituted me.

If Nerwen is lying, why couldn't it have been you, just dreamed as innocent instead (so Nerwen just lies about that)?

Originally Posted by Legate

Julius Caesar, Napoleon and a few others would want a word with you.

Your Mom wants a word with you.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by the phantom

If Nerwen is lying, why couldn't it have been you, just dreamed as innocent instead (so Nerwen just lies about that)?

Why would she have lied about that? Little benefit (some confusion), high risk (seer knows she's lying). Unless it's her main plan to flush out the seer? If so, the seer is, thank God, staying mum about it.

[the phantom]

Who says the Seer even knows the results of the dreams? Why would he/she know Nerwen was lying?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Who says the Seer even knows the results of the dreams? Why would he/she know Nerwen was lying?

So the seer's dreams of just one Night are sent to someone else instead of him/herself? That sounds random and not very likely.

[the phantom]

It would be very useful if it was believed the Seer was about to die though.

Perhaps the power of the unknown role is he/she can take the Seer double-dream and have them sent to a random Living innocent on a night of his/her choosing. BUT, in order to make the power work correctly, the unknown has to correctly guess the Seer.

So, perhaps the Unknown believed Legate was the Seer and was about to die, and so chose to use the power. But because the Unknown incorrectly identified the Seer, the power still worked but as a consequence the dreams were sent to a Baddie.
OR as a consequence an innocent dream subject (Mac) was killed and labelled as guilty.
OR if Lottie is lying about the kill, the incorrectly guessed Seer (Legate) is killed and the dream is sent to a Baddie.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

So the seer's dreams of just one Night are sent to someone else instead of him/herself? That sounds random and not very likely.

Could be the mystery role at work, either intercepting for herself (in case it's Nerwen), forwarding it more or less randomly, or forcing the seer to forward it to somebody else (with or without seeing it themselves).

edit: xed with phantom

[the phantom]

Ooo, gotta run! I'll check in before the Deadline.

[Aganzir]

Run, phantom, run.

[Nogrod]

Let's draw the basics for the old folks...

So Nerwen

1) Actually received the message she told she received and was true with it's content - whatever her own alignment. Thus we should trust both Lottie and Mac are wolves.

2) Actually received the message she told she received but was not true with it's content - because it implied herself or another one of her pack (which would be an interesting thing if the letter (PM) told her to refer it true - what kind of sanctions would breaking that kind of ruling by the mod have?). Thus we could probably trust she has Lottie correct (with her own admittance) but would be kind of in dark with Mac.

3) Is a lover with Sally and made it up to gain time - and happily managed to hit at least one wolf (Lottie, with her own admittance - wouldn't that be annoying Lottie?), but that wouldn't tell us anything about Mac - but maybe that lover-Nerwen probably suspected him seriously?

4) is the seer and gave everyone her two wolves as she saw it was time to do something. Thus we should trust both Lottie and Mac are wolves.


Something seems to be wrong in all the scenarios (except maybe the first)...

I mean could you disobey a clear rule in a game like this? Without sanctions? (2)

What is the idea of coming up with that kind of out of the blue scenario if you're a lover? There must be something I have missed with the arguments for this scenario. (3)

Why would the seer kind of reveal but yet not make it so the ranger would feel it her/his duty to protect her the next Night? Or is she counting on the wolves thinking that she's just an ordo with this kind of luck fallen on her and thus not worthy of killing? (4)


But then there is also the matter of this special role: if the special role is that someone get's the seer's dreams then who did the extra killing? Or is there a kind of merry-go-around -role when someone is for one day the seer-receiver, one is an assassin another etc.?

And what has all this to do with itching and scratching?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Perhaps the power of the unknown role is he/she can take the Seer double-dream and have them sent to a random Living innocent on a night of his/her choosing. BUT, in order to make the power work correctly, the unknown has to correctly guess the Seer.

So, perhaps the Unknown believed Legate was the Seer and was about to die, and so chose to use the power. But because the Unknown incorrectly identified the Seer, the power still worked but as a consequence the dreams were sent to a Baddie.
OR as a consequence an innocent dream subject (Mac) was killed and labelled as guilty.
OR if Lottie is lying about the kill, the incorrectly guessed Seer (Legate) is killed and the dream is sent to a Baddie.

If this is the correct version, I'll eat my hat... Oh, I don't have one - well the next time I meet tp I'll bow very low indeed and buy him a dinner.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

3) Is a lover with Sally and made it up to gain time - and happily managed to hit at least one wolf (Lottie, with her own admittance - wouldn't that be annoying Lottie?), but that wouldn't tell us anything about Mac - but maybe that lover-Nerwen probably suspected him seriously? ... What is the idea of coming up with that kind of out of the blue scenario if you're a lover? There must be something I have missed with the arguments for this scenario. (3)

I'll take a very quick look at her and sally's posts to see if there's anything that would suggest this is the case.

[Nogrod]

This option 3 is something I've seen people talk about (I don't remember who) and it kind of escapes me - like what's the point? Or where did this speculation come that Nerwen is a wolf? Surely she hasn't been in a position where she would have been forced to make that kind of thing up?

Anyway, bedtime for me too.

Looking forwards to seeing who can we share the company of come the Day.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

This option 3 is something I've seen people talk about (I don't remember who) and it kind of escapes me - like what's the point?

Buy one of them another day by making the wolves prioritise Nerwen over sally while simultaneously letting the Ranger know sally may need protection. It is a gamble though. But if this is the case, they managed to flush out a wolf nicely so I'm not complaining.

[Aganzir]

NERWEN...

• Mentions the lovers for the first time in her second post (it's always the case that signs of pack behaviour may point at the lovers as well).
• Questions Firefoot's vote tying plan in #44 partly because it may expose the lovers.
• Says the NIGHT 2 narration indicates the lovers are still alive (this is like her fourth post).
• Lottie calls morm highly suspicious for suspecting sally. Nerwen indirectly defends her, calling morm eyebrow raising rather than highly suspicious.
• Asks if sally (or Boro) gave a reason for voting Nog on DAY 1.

• Okay. So that’s what you are, Sally. Let me think about this.

• We could certainly do with some information– and now the wolves will be searching frantically for Sally's lover, so the longer we delay her death the more chance she has of not getting resurrected at all. On the other hand, or paw, she isn’t a wolf. (At least, I don’t see why a wolf-Sally would be making a false reveal right now.)

• Really hopes Kuru won't answer Nilp's question about the lovers' gender.
• It was over 7 hours into the DAY before she started asking questions about Lottie and others.
• Says the village need to think the lynching sally business over, and voting for her right now would be very suspicious. This a little before her reveal.

SALLY...

• Before her reveal she didn't say anything about the lovers or about Nerwen.
• Mentions they have a new plan to protect her lover and it requires the ranger.
• Her belated DAY 1 commentary ends with:

  More on that in a bit. When last I read the thread, it sounded like Nerwen had something important to share, so I’ll check in on that and then sink my lack of teeth into Day 2 after I grab some lunch.

• Explains to Lalaith Nerwen very rarely votes on DAY 1.

Not conclusive but nothing suggests they couldn't be lovers.

(Why did I spend half an hour on this at 3 in the morning?)

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

This option 3 is something I've seen people talk about (I don't remember who) and it kind of escapes me - like what's the point? Or where did this speculation come that Nerwen is a wolf? Surely she hasn't been in a position where she would have been forced to make that kind of thing up?

That she's a lover? I joked about it. Well, yesterDay, before Lottie confessed, I thought it might be some sort of lover-scheme, but that doesn't make sense now.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

That she's a lover? I joked about it. Well, yesterDay, before Lottie confessed, I thought it might be some sort of lover-scheme, but that doesn't make sense now.

I discussed it briefly shortly after Nerwen's reveal. Still don't think it's impossible.

[Aganzir]

I took the phantom's list from a few days back and expanded it based on DAY 2 voting. DAY 3 votes don't tell us much - looking at people's suspicions might, but I don't have the time for it now.

• Firefoot/Mac - dangerously placed vote, unless she'd decided to bus Mac.
• Kath/Form - low-risk vote on DAY 1 but just not worth risking it.
• morm/Lottie - Lottie voted morm early on DAY 2.
• morm/Mac - a DAY 1 vote would be totally useless, voted Mac again DAY 2.
• Nerwen/Mac - early DAY 2 vote, likely to be followed.
• Shasta/Lottie - throwaway vote very late on DAY 2, but he was the first person to cast a vote for her.

DEAD:

Nog/Boro
Nog/phantom
Nog/Lottie
Nog/Eomer
Nog/Shasta

Rikae/Lommy

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Buy one of them another day by making the wolves prioritise Nerwen over sally while simultaneously letting the Ranger know sally may need protection. It is a gamble though. But if this is the case, they managed to flush out a wolf nicely so I'm not complaining.

It seems, though, that it would have been too risky... what if Lottie had been gifted?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

It seems, though, that it would have been too risky... what if Lottie had been gifted?

Maybe they were just so sure of her guilt? I don't know though. It's just, if Mac is lying, he's doing a better job than I would have given him credit for ().

[Aganzir]

Also, we're fewer than 70 posts from catching up with the Living thread!

I wonder who are joining us tonight. Not that I'll be here to see it until much later because I should be in bed right now.

If it's Nerwen and she's not sally's lover, I'll feel extra dumb for staying up late to look at their posts.

[Rikae]

I kind of had a feeling Boro and Nerwen had some kind of understanding yesterDay, so I went back over Nerwen's posts and noticed this:

#461 "By the way, didn’t Agan say something on Day One about how gifteds should signal to each other?"

And then a few posts later she links it, Agan's post #86:
" I wouldn't presume to advise the seer (still never having been one), but if they happen to dream of another gifted, establishing a connection (if it can be done discreetly enough not to endanger either party) might not be a bad idea at all. That way at least there'd be somebody to steer the village (discreetly or not) in the right direction at the event of the seer's death."

And then Nerwen says in #466
"Now, what do people think of our little snow flower, Lottie?"

And then Boro in #481
"Lottie, I haven't formed much of an opinion on, she's skating under my nose."

Snow flower? Skating?

[Rikae]

Boro also "I'm feeling better about morm today"

but he didn't say anything about Mac.

"I've been in a deep slumber from any WW games until recently."

Anyway, looks like Nerwen was looking for confirmation from the seer before her reveal, and got it.

[Rikae]

65 posts in just under 2 hours... c'mon, dead folks, we can do it!

[the phantom]

Ha ha, no, we don't have to pass them now!
We can keep close to them through the day and leave them eating dust tomorrow night. (Unless, for instance, Boro and Nerwen die tonight, in which case we'll pass them during the day quite easily I would guess.)

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Boro also "I'm feeling better about morm today"

but he didn't say anything about Mac.

"I've been in a deep slumber from any WW games until recently."

Anyway, looks like Nerwen was looking for confirmation from the seer before her reveal, and got it.

I'm not sure I see the connection. Something in Nerwen's phrasing caught my eye when she mentioned my idea of gifteds signalling each other, but I don't see how they could have reached an understanding in such a short time. Did Boro say anything about Nerwen before?