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Old 02-25-2008, 07:57 PM   #41
Gwathagor
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Who accused Lommy more? You (Boro) or Mac?
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Old 02-25-2008, 08:06 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
What to make of this?
Your post was too small. I scrolled right past it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gwathagor
Who accused Lommy more? You (Boro) or Mac?
All I can say to that is...el-oh-el, mate, el-oh-el. I have definitely missed this werewolf stuff.
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Old 02-25-2008, 08:14 PM   #43
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Frankly, I am somewhat puzzled as to why Macalaure should make a big deal out of Nogrod's "protect our assets" line. The leap from that line to "Oh, he must be referring to himself as an asset to avoid being lynched" seems pretty weak to me. All I see in Nogrod's line is a simple statement that we can't rely on a ranger to protect us.
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Old 02-25-2008, 08:19 PM   #44
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My point being, Boromir, that Durelin and Sally may simply have seen Mac's accusation of Lommy as more serious than yours. I don't think that the circumstances should give us any reason to think there's a conspiracy there. You might have a point regarding Mac appearing to switch his suspicions, but that looks more to me like first-day-fishing than anything creepy. That's all I was trying to say.
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Old 02-25-2008, 08:37 PM   #45
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I'm sorry to show up so late, but the day starts while I'm in class and I've had quite a lot going on here until now...
I haven't had a chance to go carefully over the thread -- it looks as though Macalaure is once again the center of controversy. There does seem to be something slightly edgy in his manner toDay, at first glance. I'm going to go over things again and post my thoughts soon.
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Old 02-25-2008, 09:23 PM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Menel
All I see in Nogrod's line is a simple statement that we can't rely on a ranger to protect us.
Which doesn't count to begin with, since there exists no more of the sort.
I guess it is a bit of a hard transition, since we're all fairly used to having a good collection of gifted's tip toeing and, well, singing around here...
It is safe to say there won't be many alliances this time. I would say that all of this talking about gifted's would be distraction, but I don't have room to talk either because here I am now as well, and this is my first time playing without them. Though, I think we've established very entishly that yes, there are no more gifted's and there won't be for the rest of the game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Durelin
Okay, wait. Who is this 'Little Green Person'??
A fellow member and player o'course. He hasn't come by yet, but there is still plenty of time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
He could be not trying to leave a paper trail of suspects. Not a full-on point yet, but it could become one.
Well of course, all cats are black at night...

Or in this case, wolves, as I seem to remember before m'eyes faded.

So, maybe we need to bring a bit more sunshine out, as Yule has passed and a new sun is coming. Though, that requires a bit more investigation of course.

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Old 02-25-2008, 09:37 PM   #47
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Quote:
Your post was too small. I scrolled right past it.~Durelin
Should I speak louder or write in a bigger font?

Quote:
My point being, Boromir, that Durelin and Sally may simply have seen Mac's accusation of Lommy as more serious than yours.~Gwathagor
There's your first mistake, I'm always serious, and it would be foolhardy to think otherwise of my suspicions.
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Old 02-25-2008, 09:58 PM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
I'm always serious, and it would be foolhardy to think otherwise of my suspicions.
Hee hee...

Yes, but also not to take you so seriously either.

Quote:
Should I speak louder or write in a bigger font?
You should bring back the disclaimer in your signature again...

Quote:
Now how come does he know that unless he's a wolf?
Past... Experience?

Though, I guess this is a new game, so all of our usual role handouts have been completely changed, and it is a pain looking at the majority of you without thinking about any past games, because there are so many past gifted's here.
Yes, I'm admitting that I have no idea about any of you yet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod
Menel jumps in to second the suspcion using Lommy's banter with Gwath as a reason to suspect her (which clearly misses the mark). He also gets defensive after Lommy answers him and starts talking about wolves tendency to make silly suspicions... which I do find quite ad hoc.
Will have to agree with this, they were mostly playing in character and on the joke of Gwath made in the Admin thread. It was a nice way to break the first day ice though.
Sometimes in character or back-forth jokes are suspicious and useful, sometimes Schordinger's wolf is just schordinger's wolf. It's talked into existance, but really, there's nothing there of a threat.

I'm trying to make myself think more about all the posts, so that hopefully I'll have something real to say later on, hope that others do too.
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Old 02-25-2008, 10:55 PM   #49
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Hmm, okay. It seems to me people are falling into old patterns more than ever - Nogrod advocating lynching the quiet people, Mac suspecting Nogrod for rather flimsy reasons, Gwath underestimatiing the dramatic abilities of wolves, Menel being aggressive, etc.

In this vein, my first reaction to Nerwen's post was "wolf!" but I think it might be wise to try to look beyond what is apparently a bias on my part. If anyone's interested, it was the structure of her post -- banter, followed by a rather off-the-wall bit of wolf-strategy-theory, followed by a defense. Too people-pleasing, I thought, too cautious.

However, although that was my first reaction, I'm aware I have a tendency to always find Nerwen suspicious (and Durelin, and Aganzir... just laying my cards on the table), so, on second glance...

There is something that I don't like about Gwathette, and also particularly about his relationship to the Sally-Durelin-Boro-Mac fiasco. The former has a sort of cautious jitteryness about him which is often seen among wolf-cubs, and he protests too much. There is something strange about the way he jumps on Boro's comment about Sally and Durelin's words about Mac suspecting Lommy. Whoa, that is complicated. Let me trace it back...for my own benefit, if no one else's.

-Mac posts a *very* weak suspicion of Nogrod. I don't know how he arrived at this conclusion about what Nogrod meant by "assets" -- I myself read it as if it referred to the absent seer or known innocents we would have in a normal game. I could chalk it up either to the misreading of a non-native English speaker, or eagerness to start the ball rolling (which could be innocent or not, of course.) His following lines, as well as the self-deprecating opener, seem a little excessive, though.

-Boro posts suspecting Lommy. While I don't agree with the assessment - it doesn't seem odd to me if Lommy is chipper - and don't necessarily trust Boro, there isn't really anything objectionable. It's the sort of blunt accusation, though, which might make a Lommywolf (if one exists) nervous.

-Lommy crosses with Boro, making a rather odd response to Mac. To me, it looks as though a tentative and not entirely honest "you look odd, but I'm not going to be the first to suspect you" sort of thing.

-Lommy defends herself from Boro. Now, this is the sort of defense that twists one's head up in "is she the sort of woman who would put the poison into her own cup, or her enemy's" knots. A wolfish Lommy would know better than to give such a vociferous and flimsy explanation -- a wolfish Lommy would also know we would think that. Therefore, we (or I, at any rate) can't deduce much from this alone.

-Mac replies to Lommy - I don't read this as a stronger attack than Boro's, by any means. There is a lightheartedness in the last bit, and it is, after all, a self-defense. Still, there is something odd about the way he accuses her of being quick to accuse. He seems over-eager (and in his earlier post, over-apologetic.)

-Sally suggests Mac and Menel are targeting Lommy, but then suspects Lommy herself in the next breath, then says she does the same herself. Ok, confusion, self contradiction -- who am I to criticise that? Analyzing Sally, I fear, would take another post at least this long.
However, it *is* odd that she picks Mac and Menel to mention. She also says if she's a wolf, she won't lie about it... that's nice to know, Sally. Would you be so kind as to say "I am not a wolf" for us please?

- Durelin says Macalaure "jumped on" Lommy. I suppose this can be explained by the fact that it's already been mentioned and, as she says, she didn't see Boro's post. As for what the mention is supposed to accomplish, saying Mac jumped on Lommy and then "absolving" him with in-character banter is kind of slippery. The reader might absorb the meme "Mac jumped on Lommy" while also assuming Durelin doesn't think this is important.

- Boro notices Sally and Durelin's mistake (?) and suggests both are wolves. I suppose that is possible. It's also possible that Durelin is, and trying to help along the beginnings of a bandwagon; it's possible just Sally is, and Durelin is a misguided ordo. It's possible none of them are, though, and what looks oddest of all to me is:

- Gwath jumps in with an abrubt -- and off-base, I would say -- defense of Sally and Durelin. He then explains this in a second post -- it seems like he realises he's made a mistake and is trying to fix it, too late.

This whole mess suggests to me the possibility that Gwath may be a wolf with either Sally or Durelin... however, I am not entirely comfortable with Lommy's or Macalaure's behavior either. I have a feeling I may be able to get a read on the latter after a few more posts, though (not to brag or anything...)

EDIT: X'd with THE Ka, name-bolding.
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Old 02-25-2008, 11:08 PM   #50
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I hate first days; they seem so silly and meaningless until after they're over, and then there's tons to analyze. I really should vote before I get to bed, because I have to work until two (DL is at one my time) and I probably won't want to get up early and vote. But I have nothing really to go on, just silly banter and half-hearted accusations. I'll think about it a bit and then come back.
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Old 02-25-2008, 11:50 PM   #51
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Hello, everyone. I'm sorry for my lack of contribution so far, but I've been in class all day– my previous post was made in a a tiny window of opportunity and with my tutor breathing down my neck– I don't think I've started the term very well...

Well, I've skimmed the thread– and what a tangle we have here. I need to read in detail before I can form any opinion.

Back soon.
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Old 02-26-2008, 12:19 AM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post

- Gwath jumps in with an abrubt -- and off-base, I would say -- defense of Sally and Durelin. He then explains this in a second post -- it seems like he realises he's made a mistake and is trying to fix it, too late.
It was less a defense of Sally and Durelin than it was a criticism of Boromir's post. I figure that if I'm not going to make first-day accusations like everyone else, I can at least try to find flaws in other people's posts.
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Old 02-26-2008, 12:23 AM   #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
I hate first days; they seem so silly and meaningless until after they're over, and then there's tons to analyze. I really should vote before I get to bed, because I have to work until two (DL is at one my time) and I probably won't want to get up early and vote. But I have nothing really to go on, just silly banter and half-hearted accusations. I'll think about it a bit and then come back.
I agree; first days are rubbish until they're over, after which they're just cryptic. Hence my hesitation about calling anyone out yet.
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Old 02-26-2008, 12:26 AM   #54
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Okay, I've read a bit more now.

First up, Thinlómien

I still can't see anything at all wolfish in her early baiting of Gwath. It looks perfectly innocent to me and I can't for the life of me see why Menel seized on it. However, I agree with Mac and Boro that this

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
Boro, the flaw in your logic is that I'm always dead nervous and unsure as a wolf. I never really enjoy it. So if I'm genuinely confident and enjoying myself, I'm innocent. Which of course doesn't mean I couldn't try to feign confidence if I was a wolf. But I'm bad at deception so if I'm only playing confident I'm probably ringing false or overdoing it...
doesn't look too good– protesting too much and could be read as a double– bluff. On the other hand, she might be getting nervous under pressure– it happens to innocents too.
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Old 02-26-2008, 12:41 AM   #55
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I'm going to have to vote in the next 15 minutes, since I'll be in history class (19th Century Paris, if anyone is interested) during Armageddon -- I mean, the deadline.
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Old 02-26-2008, 01:05 AM   #56
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[QUOTE=Rikae;548760]- Gwath jumps in with an abrubt -- and off-base, I would say -- defense of Sally and Durelin. He then explains this in a second post -- it seems like he realises he's made a mistake and is trying to fix it, too late./QUOTE]

I should also point out, Rikae, that I didn't actually defend Sally and Durelin until my second post - the "fix-it" post - in which I explicitly make them part of my argument. If I was trying to downplay any association with them, then I did a pretty poor job.
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Old 02-26-2008, 01:16 AM   #57
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For the sake of justice and informed voting, I am going to hold off for the time being. I'll get up early, read any new posts, and vote then (probably around 2:00 GMT). I'll still miss an important part of the Day, but that's the best I can do. Alas and alack. Good night. Happy...werewolfing.
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Old 02-26-2008, 02:13 AM   #58
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Next, Macalaure

Seems rather jumpy, and, as others have mentioned, his argument against Nogrod is extremely strained. However it was early in the Day and he could have been just trying to get people talking. I say this because he did something similar last time, when he was innocent (and we lynched him).
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Old 02-26-2008, 02:30 AM   #59
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Menel–

Follows Boro's suspicion of Lommy, though he gives his own, very weak, grounds.

Later says this

Quote:
Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil View Post
To be honest, I believe people have their own styles of playing and tend to use them regardless of their roles. I honestly don't think we can find a wolf by playing style here, and I would doubt that Lommy actually plays differently based on her role.
Which looks to me like he's saying, "See? I didn't jump on Boro's suggestions at all!"

EDIT: accidentally put in an extra quote
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Old 02-26-2008, 02:47 AM   #60
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The Ka

Is apparently trying to win a prize for saying the least in the most words. A possible "safe" wolf-tactic?
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Old 02-26-2008, 03:24 AM   #61
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Ah, the good old Days1s suck discussion... how I've been missing it....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod
And with no ranger we're in danger of losing our helpfuls sooner than later - so that's an urgency matter: the weight of possible submarines may get heavy soon.
This just rhymes so beautifully that I had point it out. But I had an actual question too: I suppose submarines mean slip-under-the-radar people? If that is so, I agree with you here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Menel
To be honest, I believe people have their own styles of playing and tend to use them regardless of their roles. I honestly don't think we can find a wolf by playing style here, and I would doubt that Lommy actually plays differently based on her role.
As a wolf I never intentionally play differently, but it shows in my behaviour nevertheless so I do end up playing a bit differently. And I could bet I'm not the only one here who's like that.

Sally's craziness feels like her innocent craziness and Nerwen pessimism and overall attitude makes me feel good about her too. Boro's reasonableness seems innocentish, but I know better than to trust him - even though I'm not getting the-once-so-common wolvish vibes from him.

Unfortunately, I'm finding it more difficult to judge who looks guilty. No one has really made me suspicious this far. For the sake of my sanity, I hope that Mith and Greenie will look super guilty when they appear. But that, I'm afraid, is a vain hope. Volo and McCaber strike me as having an aura of hidden evilry, but they've both posted very little so I need to know more of them before I judge. Besides, I think I'm going to be naturally wary of McCaber for the next decade or so for his recent extra sly performances both as a cobbler and a wolf...
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Old 02-26-2008, 03:25 AM   #62
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Durelin and Sally:

Individually I can't get much of a fix on either of them. Durelin I've never played before, and as for Sally... I mean, as usual she's managed to say something

Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
I'm a terrible bluff, so if I'm lying it's pretty easy to catch me on it. Besides, I'm insufferably honest, which also means that if I am a wolf, I won't lie about it.
which sounds highly wolfish– but the thing is, she always does. After what happened last game I'm almost afraid to form an opinion of her.

As for them being in it together, and trying to cast suspicion on Mac– yes, I can see that as a possibility. I find it less likely that Gwathagor is part of it too, though. I'll look at him next.

EDIT: X'd with Lommy.
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Old 02-26-2008, 04:12 AM   #63
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A couple of hours into the game, and already everybody is talking about me...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Menel (but others have said similar things, too)
Frankly, I am somewhat puzzled as to why Macalaure should make a big deal out of Nogrod's "protect our assets" line.
I think I made it quite clear that I'm not making a big deal out of it. I only mentioned it because it was the only suspicious thing I saw at all at that point. Should I have said nothing at all instead?

Ka, in #46, you gave a quote which isn't mine but McCaber's. Of course, you could refer to Cabbie as 'Mac', but that's gonna cause some confusion.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
The Ka

Is apparently trying to win a prize for saying the least in the most words. A possible "safe" wolf-tactic?
I agree with that. I'm not sure what to think of it, too.

Rikae, did you just call me self-deprecating, over-eager, and over-apologetic in only one post? What happened to Rikae the Kind?

No clear-cut suspects so far, and what's almost as bad, apart from Nerwen I don't find anybody particularly innocent as well.
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Old 02-26-2008, 04:51 AM   #64
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Gwathagor

Early posts are just banter with Lommy– nothing there. Also makes a couple of posts of little or no substance. Then we have him saying this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gwathagor View Post
My point being, Boromir, that Durelin and Sally may simply have seen Mac's accusation of Lommy as more serious than yours. I don't think that the circumstances should give us any reason to think there's a conspiracy there. You might have a point regarding Mac appearing to switch his suspicions, but that looks more to me like first-day-fishing than anything creepy. That's all I was trying to say.
Now, Rikae says that he "jumps in" with a "defense" of Durelin and Sally.

Well, okay, you could see it that way... but you could also see it as Gwath just trying to be helpful and offer an alternative explanation. As it stands, I find that more likely.
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Old 02-26-2008, 04:58 AM   #65
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McCaber

Sole contribution is to follow this post of Gwath's

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gwathagor View Post
I'm not going to say anything yet, NOT because I'm trying to fly under the radar, but because I'm not sure what to make of the first page. There's so much speculative finger-pointing that goes on on the first day, and so little substance. At this point, everyone looks equally suspicious to me.

I promise I'll contribute in a few hours after I've eaten.

Meneltarmacil used my full name!
With this

Quote:
Originally Posted by McCaber View Post
Nice to see you, too, Sally. As much as I don't want to become a Cabe-kabob, maybe I'll actually give you something to look at this time. And Pappa Volo, I'll try not to disappoint you toDay.

I do enjoy the more experienced ones throwing around suspicion. So I think I'll try it too:

I like how Gwath is refraining from forming an opinion. He could be not trying to leave a paper trail of suspects. Not a full-on point yet, but it could become one.

Anyway, I'll return soon with some serious thoughts in a while. Supper awaits, if I can find some in this house of doom.
Which is to say that he's basically doing the same thing as Gwath– except for suspecting one person (also Gwath).
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Old 02-26-2008, 05:08 AM   #66
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Well, I don't have time for anyone else. I'm either going to have to vote very soon– which I won't be happy about since I have no clear suspect– or get up very early in the morning, which will be cutting it fine and which may not give me time to read through everything.

Also, we have yet to hear from A Little Green and Mithalwen. My feeling at the moment, though, is that at least two, and probably all three, of the wolves have already posted. I'm getting much the same nasty "there's something going on but I don't know what" feeling as in the last village. Maybe it's left over paranoia.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
I have a tendency to always find Nerwen suspicious
Thanks, Rikae, I love you too.
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Old 02-26-2008, 05:43 AM   #67
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Where is Greenie? I know she's at home right now and having a flu, but I hope she's not so ill she can't play ww or avoiding it for any more sinister reasons. But looking at the clock, it seems likely that she will post soon, or at least I hope so. Of Mith I can't provide similar analysis, but I hope that she will appear soon-ish too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
A couple of hours into the game, and already everybody is talking about me...
An interesting comment and one that might have more to it than it first reveals. I mean, if you ask me, everybody's not talking about Mac. Granted, he is among those most talked about, but he seems to imply he is the main subject of discussion (or that's the feeling I get from his tone), which, in my opinion, is not true and thus Mac has made a wrong evaluation. Ok, what about it? you might ask, everybody makes mistakes. Yes, I agree with that. But Macalaure seems to overestimate the suspicion and/or discussion around him especially and that is a rather wolvish mistake. I mean, I always do it as a wolf, however hard I try not to. Thus this little comment looks a bit sinister.
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Old 02-26-2008, 06:29 AM   #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
Where is Greenie?
I was sleeping, obviously. But the same should be asked of you, my love. Shouldn't you be at school?

Okay. The day's been quite a mess, and I haven't quite got my thoughts cleared yet since I only just read it.

First of all, Boro makes me uneasy. He seems like a sort of sardonic observer, popping up once in a while to make a little, clever post, and meanwhile being very careful of his suspicions and letting out very little of himself. Of course that might just be those silly playing style matters.

Secondly, I'm rather annoyed at myself at the moment. I just noticed that I have a tendency to automatically trust people who make long and fruitful(-looking) analyses of others. In this round, I find Rikae and Nerwen rather innocent. Rikae's jump on Gwath in her novel strikes me as slightly worrisome, though. I saw Gwath's post simply as a genuine offer of an alternative theory. Of course it is important to recognise the possibility of him defending sally and Durelin, but completely leaving out the alternative to that doesn't look good.

Of the others, both Mac and Lommy look innocentish, Sally, Durelin and Nog I cannot read, Menel and McCaber I find slightly worrying, and Gwath looks genuine enough.

Coming back with more, hopefully.
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Old 02-26-2008, 06:57 AM   #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
I was sleeping, obviously. But the same should be asked of you, my love. Shouldn't you be at school?
Sleeping 'til 2pm? Good, you're finally taking after your sister. As for school, I happened to have lunch and currently I'm having an hour off...

Quote:
Originally Posted by McCaber
I do enjoy the more experienced ones throwing around suspicion. So I think I'll try it too:

I like how Gwath is refraining from forming an opinion. He could be not trying to leave a paper trail of suspects. Not a full-on point yet, but it could become one.
Now I just don't like the tone of this at all. It just sounds wrong, throwing suspicion around merely for the sake of throwing it, not because of actually suspecting anything AND not standing behind his suspicion by stating he's just throwing it around.

Rikae seems to make a big mess of the me-Mac-Boro-Sally-Durelin-Gwath thing, which troubles me a little. It seems like she wants people to stick to speculating and arguing only about it for the whole Day, or to phrase it a bit more nicely and realistically, keep the debate going. Which I'm not sure an innocent would do.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
The Ka–
Is apparently trying to win a prize for saying the least in the most words. A possible "safe" wolf-tactic?
It seems to be her normal playing style. Which of course does not guarantee she's innocent.
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Old 02-26-2008, 07:15 AM   #70
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I forbid the further use of smilies...
I love it when he's masterful...

sorry to be so late - couldn't get online last night and just have a few minutes now but will be able to say more later, so no hasty vote from me.

I agree there are advantages to no gifteds - firstly it discourages laziness since we can't rely on them and secondly it removes that doubt that so often occurs that odd behaviour means a wary gifted rather than a nervy wolf.

Off for another read. May get another post up .. may not...
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Old 02-26-2008, 07:49 AM   #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen View Post
Gwathagor

Early posts are just banter with Lommy– nothing there. Also makes a couple of posts of little or no substance. Then we have him saying this:



Now, Rikae says that he "jumps in" with a "defense" of Durelin and Sally.

Well, okay, you could see it that way... but you could also see it as Gwath just trying to be helpful and offer an alternative explanation. As it stands, I find that more likely.
Actually (and in answer to Gwath as well) I was referring more to his question to Boro in his previous post -- which, though it doesn't mention Sally or Durelin by name, is a defense of them, whether that was his primary intention or not; it is a question implying their behavior was not suspicious.
Besides, Boro clearly did not suspect Lommy less strongly than Mac did - so it is also a groundless defence. It just strikes me as very knee-jerk and jumpy (the question and the follow-up.)
Now, back to reading the thread...
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Old 02-26-2008, 08:03 AM   #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure
I think I made it quite clear that I'm not making a big deal out of it. I only mentioned it because it was the only suspicious thing I saw at all at that point. Should I have said nothing at all instead?
I probably wouldn't have read it as suspicious at all, and I don't see why it was worth discussing.

As for McCaber, I don't know what to make of him. He seems to be a suspicious character regardless of what his role is.
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Old 02-26-2008, 08:31 AM   #73
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OK, not much left here to go on, but if my years as an English major have taught me anything, it's how to write several pages about a half-page text.
Let's see what I can do here:

Nerwen seems so easily satisfied with the innocent explanations of Mac and Gwath's behavior and yet is suspicious of Menel for reasons I don't really understand... oh, and Nerwen, sorry if I offended you by saying I always find you suspicious -- but the alternative would be to simply find you suspicious. I'm trying to be fair...

Menel deserves a closer look ... he is somehow on the edges of things. He started off aggressive, but since then he's been unusually uncontroversial. Nerwen and somebody else (sorry, can't find it again) called him suspicious, but I'm not sure about the reasons... anyway, he shouldn't be ignored. If I have time, I'll look at him later.

I agree with Lommy about Mac's statement that everybody is talking about him -- it looks fishy. However, I could also see this as a reaction to the way the last several games have gone -- he *has* been the number one suspect on day one for a while. I'm keeping my eye on him, though.

I find it odd that Lommy accuses me of trying to focus everybody's attention on a controversy involving half the village! Statistically, there is probably a wolf in there, and I certainly think it's better to analyze what can actually be analyzed rather than taking a shot in the dark with a "quiet person" who may or may not be quiet toMorrow. If someone insists on lurking in shadows then too, I say lynch him/her... but even if we don't lynch one of the controversial figures, discussing them leaves a trail -- and the trails of dead innocents and wolves will be all the solid evidence we have in this game. There also wasn't any such concept as a "Lommy-Boro-Gwath-Sally-Durelin-Mac" situation until I coined it, and therefore there was nothing for me to continue. It's a way into the problem, nothing more... but maybe Lommy doesn't want us to have any handle on things?

Coming up with overarching concepts invariably pushes some considerations aside while spotlighting others -- however, it's a necessary start to wolf-hunting. Every individual, considered in isolation, doesn't reveal much, but the interactions do. It's the easiest thing in the world to suspect the people who create such concepts, because all one has to do is point out that they are trying to focus the village's attention. Well, that's exactly what I'm doing, because without focus, we'll get nowhere. I may be bringing myself down, but I intend to take some wolves with me... a controversy is exactly what we need for later analysis.

Well, sorry for being long-winded, but this issue gets me fired up. At any rate... I am still uneasy about Mac and Lommy, probably more so at this point than Gwath and Sally and/or Durelin. Still, it's good to see connections forming which might help us later...

EDIT: X'd with Menel

Last edited by Rikae; 02-26-2008 at 08:34 AM. Reason: fixing grammar (looks fishy ---> it looks fishy) analyze ---> analyzed. I really should proofread...
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Old 02-26-2008, 08:32 AM   #74
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Before going to bed last night the one I felt most comfortable with was sally...and now that she promises she's innocent, well nothing's changed.

This morning I feel good about Rikae and Thinlomien.

Rikae because I think her suspicions of Gwath are an innocent one and she's onto something there (which I will get to more in a bit).

Thinlo, mostly because she passed my test. I'm always suspicious of Thinlo because of her "chipperness" and Thinlo always responds in some way similar to what she did..."If I was a wolf I wouldn't be like this." (And I'm pretty sure it's either Mac or myself who always find that even more suspicious). Anyway, point being Thinlo passed the test and her observation on Mac is spot on:
Quote:
An interesting comment and one that might have more to it than it first reveals. I mean, if you ask me, everybody's not talking about Mac. Granted, he is among those most talked about, but he seems to imply he is the main subject of discussion (or that's the feeling I get from his tone), which, in my opinion, is not true and thus Mac has made a wrong evaluation. Ok, what about it? you might ask, everybody makes mistakes. Yes, I agree with that. But Macalaure seems to overestimate the suspicion and/or discussion around him especially and that is a rather wolvish mistake. I mean, I always do it as a wolf, however hard I try not to. Thus this little comment looks a bit sinister.
Nice observation and it is hard not to have that knee-jerk reaction of "I'm being suspected...it's only Day 1...crap" I think you remember all too well my Fenris Penguin days and perhaps 2 people raised some concerns about me and I felt a need to overly defend myself, because I was worried by all the "suspicion" eventhough as the ordinary villagers had observed wasn't all that much...and that led to my Day 1 downfall. I still can't stop that nervous reaction of "Thinlo is suspecting me...oh crap I'm feeling the noose!"

Quote:
Secondly, I'm rather annoyed at myself at the moment. I just noticed that I have a tendency to automatically trust people who make long and fruitful(-looking) analyses of others. In this round, I find Rikae and Nerwen rather innocent. Rikae's jump on Gwath in her novel strikes me as slightly worrisome, though. I saw Gwath's post simply as a genuine offer of an alternative theory. Of course it is important to recognise the possibility of him defending sally and Durelin, but completely leaving out the alternative to that doesn't look good.~Greenie
This I find odd, he thinks Rikae looks rather innocent, yet her jump on Gwath is worrisome? Perhaps this is a defense against Gwath? Too early to say but it does look like a clever wolf tactic to make it look like you're defending someone "innocent" when you're really not you're inadvertantly defending someone else.

Let me explain, no that would be too long, let me sum up. It looks like Greenie is defending Rikae (saying she seems innocent), but that comment is only meant to divert us from who Greenie truly is defending (and that is Gwath). By saying, but Rikae's suspicion of Gwath looks "worrisome" because she left out the other alternatives. So, it's actually a defense of Gwath disguised under the "Rikae is innocent...but she worries me because of...blah blah blah.

Quote:
but completely leaving out the alternative to that doesn't look good.
Since this is the first village I believe we have had the honor of being in together Greenie I'll let you in on a little secret. I'm an extremely biased person, so when I spot something I jump on that like a cat on a mouse and won't let up until I see that person dead (just ask Menel he's suffered from my biases far too often). I think too much thinking goes on (how ironic...I think), which can be a great weapon for me, but that sets me up to be easily fooled (just ask Nogrod I'll never forget that little under-handed, dirty, yet brilliant trickster).
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Old 02-26-2008, 08:34 AM   #75
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Oh and please no more complaints about Day 1...I think it can be the most exciting and liberating days if you let it be so. Because, after Day 1 I actually have to do work and all this analyzing baloney that never helps me out anyway, but I continue to do it, but on Day 1 I don't have to. Just have the attitude of "Day 1 is my friend" and it'll be fine.
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Old 02-26-2008, 08:40 AM   #76
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I guess I've never did this kind of thing before but here's what I have gathered from the thread this far what comes to people in someway - more or less seriously - suspecting or defending others. They are in the order they have appeared in the thread. I'm trying to elaborate on them after I post this one as I started this one to both look at whether some people are trying opportunistically to ride on others' suspcions or who have been careful not to open their minds as to whom they suspect.

If I have misrepresented anyone's points please correct me but I have tried to explicate everyones points in a most economical manner.


Mac getting a funny feeling about Nog because mentioning the wolves being after our assets freely.

Boro feeling bad about Lommy for joyousness and lightness.

Lommy: Mac is odd (not necessarily a wolf though).

Menel suspecting Lommy for suspecting Gwath.

Mac pointing out Lommy's fast to accuse & self-explained innocense.

Sally defends Lommy, questions Mac & MEnel for their atack on her. Reminds of her before the game wish to kill McCaber.

Nogrod suspects Menel for bandwaggoning. Think's Mac's joke raises eyebrows. Feels Lommy mostly innocent.

McCaber tries Gwath because he restrains from forming an opinion.

Nerwen doesn't like people suspecting Lommy so much.

Dury doesn't see anything wrong with Lommy, agrees that Mac jumped on her (did he?) but she doesn't see it suspicious either.

Boro points out Sally & Dury pointing out Mac's jump on Lommy: so wolves trying to attract suspcion on Mac based on Lommy's initial suspicion?

Gwath asks which one accused Lommy more, Mac or Boro himself.

Menel puzzled by Mac's initial suspcion of Nogrod.

Gwath indirectly defending Dury and Sally.

Rikae says there's something slightly edgy in Mac on a first glance.

The Ka agrees with Nogrod's suspicions on Menel to trying to ride Boro's suspicion of Lommy.

Rikae's analysis: Nerwen's way of posting if wolvish but she always suspects her, there are things she doesn't like in Gwath (acting like a wolf-cub, the way he jumps on Boro, defence of Saly & Dury), Mac is odd, over-eager and over-apologetic, raises questions about Dury's handling of Mac-Lommy case. The result: Gwath maybe a wolf alongside either Saly or Dury, not entirely comfortable with Lommy & Mac.

Gwath saying he didn't so much defend Sally or Dury but was pointing a fault in Boro.

Nerwen sees Lommy's banter with Gwath innocent but her self-defence looks bad - adds she might be an innocent under pressure as well. Finds Mac rather jumpy but thinks he might just be trying to get people talking, seems to suspect Menel a bit (it was hard one to me to interpret), says The Ka might play safe-wolf -tactics talking a lot without saying anything.

Lommy finds Sally's craziness, Nerwen's pessimism and Boro's reasonableness innocentish. Volo and McCaber have an aura of hidden evilry but have posted to little to judge.

Nerwen says Sally looks wolvish but that's what she always looks like.

Mac says only Nerwen feels innocent.

Nerwen seems to hold Gwath innocentish.

Lommy suspects Mac on overestimating the discussion about himself (which is how wolves tend to feel).

LG finds Boro making her uneasy with his short, clever and uncommiting posts. Menel and McCaber are slightly worrying. She finds rather innocent: Rikae, Nerwen, Mac, Lommy and Gwath.

Lommy suspects McCaber for merely suspecting on suspicion's sake and not being honest. Is troubled with Rikae's discussion on the Boro-Lommy-Mac-Sally-Dury-Gwath -thingie.


Okay that's it. Thoughts to follow... (and I see there are already some new posts around...)
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Old 02-26-2008, 08:43 AM   #77
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Okay, I have to leave in like five minutes, and I just can't make up my mind. *curses herself for being so tired* So in lieu of any hard evidence, I'm just going to have to go with my gut. I find

++Boro


to be odd. He's not really said a lot, but what he says strikes me as just....I don't know, wrong. May just be the way he is, but at the moment it looks off to me so that's where my vote's gotta go.

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Old 02-26-2008, 09:13 AM   #78
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*sigh*

The only wibe I got, Sally had to mention it just in front of my nose.

While reading through the thread I got the feeling that somebody might be trying to frame Lommy. I mean she was quite in the middle of everything a while ago and slowly some people started calling her innocent. Something feels fake there.
The best "proof" to Lommy's innocence is exactly this, to me.

And with that idea I stumbled upon Boro's post #74. It fits well to what I thought of and I can't really say what it is but Boro is... overdoing it? Not exactly...

Ok, I noticed that I don't really have anything to say so I'll reread stuff.
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Old 02-26-2008, 09:22 AM   #79
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The first thing that jumps up from there is Menel's happiness to support Boro's idea of Lommy being suspicious with a very weak argument (the banter between Lommy and Gwath in the beginning). A wolf would like to confirm the suspicions on others than themselves early on - and Menel-wolf in particular knowing his lynch-rate on Day1's...

The same could be said of Mac as he is the next to continue this Lommy bandwaggon. Even though I must say that those people who have repeated that "Mac jumped on Lommy" I find a bit disturbing as well as I don't see his points as any straight attacks... But just looking at the placement of Mac's suspicion looks a bit bad indeed.

Gwath's indirect defence of Sally and Dury also looks a bit fishy to me. I do undertand that it could be seen as just giving another explanation to their posts but there is something in the way Gwath makes it that makes me a bit worried about it.

Menel's late wake up to question Mac's first-post suspicion on me looks quite out of context. Why say that (nothing new a host of people hadn't voiced already) at that moment? Was he looking at the possibility of adding to a possible Mac bandwaggon as there had been this "Mac jumped on Lommy" discussion just before it?


It's also interesting to see who we miss from the list of actually saying anything in suspcion or defence of anyone even if people have posted.

Nerwen's analysis are very roundabout. It was a task to try and explicate whether she was actually suspecting someone or not. McCaber's suspicion was a sham. The Ka has only once backed my suspicion on Menel in passing. Gwath has only made an indirect question on Boro. Dury, Volo and Mith haven't suspected anyone - but there's just a post each this far from them to be sure (okay, two for Volo).
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Old 02-26-2008, 09:28 AM   #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
I think the little orphan speaks a lot of sense - unlike you my son...
Could you please explain what you meant? I didn't see any sense in either, but neither anything nasty.
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