The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum


Visit The *EVEN NEWER* Barrow-Downs Photo Page

Go Back   The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum > Middle-Earth Fun and Games > Middle-earth Mirth
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-02-2007, 08:11 AM   #201
Brinniel
Reflection of Darkness
 
Brinniel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 3,027
Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Analysis of Kath:

Day 1

#51: Thinks it's okay for Rikae to offer an opinion on Mac based on outside reasons. Thinks Nerwen is jumpy.

#67: Votes Might- thinks his self-vote might be double-bluff.

Her vote really did come out of nowhere and I do find that fishy.

Day 2

#157: Agrees that Valier could've been thought as a seer, or perhaps they killed her knowing she's potentially dangerous. Finds it odd that Green goes back to the loud/quiet discussion from yesterDay. Finds Lommy innocent.

I do agree with her thoughts on Green. As I said earlier, we should look at those who continue that discussion long past its due date.

#168: Still doesn't like Might's self vote. Doesn't like morm's reply to Valier. Finds Brinn's vote suspicious.
Possibly guilty: Green, Might, Brinn, morm

Conclusion: While I still don't like her vote yesterDay, the rest seems okay for now.
__________________
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Brinniel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 08:12 AM   #202
Feanor of the Peredhil
La Belle Dame sans Merci
 
Feanor of the Peredhil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: perpetual uncertainty
Posts: 5,956
Feanor of the Peredhil is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Feanor of the Peredhil is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Feanor of the Peredhil is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Send a message via MSN to Feanor of the Peredhil
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir View Post
Legate dear, that's definitely not how it works at us. But if you are very hungry, well, maybe you can find something from a certain hobbit's place...
Huh?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir
While I agree it sounds the most probable, I think we should not ignore other things that might have contributed to her death, like Lommy seemed to be trying to do.
Okay. Like what? Why do you think Valier died, Aganzir? Way to rip on Lommy and then do what you're criticizing her for.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
Feanor of the Peredhil - There really isn't much to go on. She seems somehwat distant, playful and rational all the same time and I really can't say anything about her before she makes the post about her feelings she promised to make.
I did make that post. In 140/165 when I hit edit instead of quote and ended up replacing my list of Val-posts:

Quote:
Originally Posted by me
Okay.

So I think the wolves killed her to frame morm, like I already said.

But I also think they probably killed her because of how plainly she was expressing her confidence in her gut reactions. Because we all get whims, you know? And we'd like to think we're right. But she said outright that she was sure she was going to discover a wolf.

And whether or not she did discover a wolf, that statement ("I AM going to find you" instead of "so I think I might be right") would be an eye-catcher.

So pretty much I agree with Legate saying

Quote:
the wolves said "Look, probably a Seer" (and even if she isn't, why not to try).
and

Quote:
Other possibility, likewise probable - morm is not a wolf, but the wolves noticed an opportunity to pass the guilt on someone else. Why not? Solving two problems at once.
So yeah. I think Valier died not because she'd nailed a wolf but because the wolves had a two-birds-with-one-stone philosophy.

At least that's what makes the most sense to me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lil
PLEASE, WHAT MAKES MORM SO SUSPICIOUS?
1) he's morm (that means he's suspicious)
2) he voted for somebody people think looked, in retrospect, seerish
3) that person, who expressed suspicion in him, died in the night
4) he treated the accusation as a joke

To explain 1, mormegil is really good at this game. People who have played with him know it. He's always suspicious because everyone knows that whether or not he's guilty, he's not going to give tell tale signs. It'll be up to luck for them.

For 2 and 3, it makes it look like he's involved in Valier's death.

For 4, which I think is a bad reason to suspect him: he's treating the 'frame job' lightly. I would too. I'd have come back first thing in the morning and started laughing.

Basically, morm has as much of a chance of being a wolf as any of us.

So it's stupid to say "he must be." Because he mustn't.

The thing that makes him that much more suspicious is this:

Knowing what would happen if Valier died in the night, either

a) the wolves set him up with his permission, or
b) they set him up without it.

Either way, I'll flat out and say I think it's obvious that he's being set up. This series of events just doesn't happen without that being the case.

The wolves cast suspicion on him, regardless of his role. They knew that he'd be spotlighted today. They knew he'd be an entire Day's worth of distraction.

The suspicion lays entirely in whether or not morm knew what was going to happen before it happened.

Pretty much, the village is wasting their time chasing him around when all of the evidence is circumstantial at best. Either a wolf or he's not. We could kill him to find out, but I think we're wasting our debate on him. I think the wolves are probably sitting back and giggling.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel
# 40: Doesn't think Day 1 psots will have substance. There's nothing to go on since the wolves have nothing to hide.
Just to clarify: I think Day 1 posts have substance. I just don't think it's the kind you can see while they're being said. It's a 20/20 hindsight thing. I think that as days progress, Day 1 always makes a lot more sense.

I'm going back to bed. Somebody wake me up in time to do homework.
__________________
peace
Feanor of the Peredhil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 08:27 AM   #203
Feanor of the Peredhil
La Belle Dame sans Merci
 
Feanor of the Peredhil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: perpetual uncertainty
Posts: 5,956
Feanor of the Peredhil is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Feanor of the Peredhil is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Feanor of the Peredhil is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Send a message via MSN to Feanor of the Peredhil
before I crawl back under warm blankets...

Thinlómien - helpful, nice, happy, etcetera. My question about Lommy: when you jumped in to post that Valier's death looks like morm's guilt, did you believe it, or were you just being the first one to publicly admit to the possibility?

Legate of Amon Lanc - no particular feelings of interest.

Aganzir - furry? I don't know. I don't like his accusation of Lommy and I feel like I missed something between Ag and Legate, because 'that's definitely not how it works at us'... It's the 'at us.' Is it just a grammar slip? The meaning of the sentence is lost on me.

Meneltarmacil - Eh.

Volo
- I had suspicions last night, but I forgot them before this morning. At some point I'll go back and try to figure out what it was that worried me about Volo.

Macalaure - shrug.

The Might - I think the suicide vote points to TM's innocence. I haven't changed my mind.

Mormegil - innocent. Or I'll be forced to lynch him day one every game in our future for so completely pulling one over on me.

Feanor of the Peredhil - what a pleasant young woman...

Brinniel - systematic. I feel like if I could take notes the same way she does, I'd get higher than a C in my Neoclassical/Romantic English Lit class this term... No particular feelings. I'd like to keep her around, even if just because she simplifies my life by taking useful notes.

Satansaloser2005 - shrug

Farael – shrug

A Little Green - definitely new. No denying the "what? I'm so confused, please pity me" is over-doing it a bit. A lot. I have to admit, she's a likely vote for me today.

Kath – I know I should be terrified of you, but I'm not. Why? What are you doing differently? What am I doing differently? There's something wrong here! Just to be clear: I feel like I should be suspicious because I'm always suspicious of Kath just like (and because of the same game) how I'm suspicious all the time of morm. Just to be very clear: I really have no leanings on Kath. I'd like to see more posts from her, though.

Rikae – will go out by mod-fire. I'm not going to waste my time.

Shastanis Althreduin – Is it bad that I don't even remember seeing any posts by Shasta?

Kuruharan - On an existential level, Kuru, where are you? I miss you. Come back soon. I don't know what to do when I'm not being thwacked. Oh, for the village: I want to see a lot more length out of Kuru in the next few days.
__________________
peace
Feanor of the Peredhil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 08:27 AM   #204
Brinniel
Reflection of Darkness
 
Brinniel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 3,027
Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
(I wonder if I'm bugging the crap out of everyone with these flood posts. But with some many of us, I decided I want to be more analytical. It's helping me clarify my own thoughts...I only hope it's helping everyone else too, if only even a little.)

Analysis of Mormegil:

Day 1

#60: Doesn't think it's logical to not vote someone because they haven't played before. Finds Lommy to be contradictory.

#95: Thinks Valier is too concerned with saving herself. Votes Valier. Might is suspicious for self-vote. Volo seems frazzled. Mac and Rikae look innocent.

#119: Agrees with Volo that Valier's desparate.

#125: Doesn't like Menel's comment how he thinks wolves will kill him in the Night.

#133: Lommy's tone about Nerwen hints that she knows that she will be innocent.

I'm still uncomfortable with his vote for Valier...it seems more of a retaliation than anything. At the end of Day 1, I did grow more suspicious of him.

Day 2

#145: Convinced of Lommy's guilt- say's he's being framed.

A bit defensive for my taste. Though, I can see where he's coming from.

#175: Is glad to see some are considering other candidates than him (Farael, for example). Kath seems innocent. Flip flops on Might. Doesn't understand Sally's logic. Farael seems lost, not sure about Menel, something's not right about Volo.

Conclusion: I don't like his vote on Day 1, and I even less like his first post of Day 2. Still, I don't see why morm would kill Valier. I don't know...anything is possible.

EDIT: X-ed with Fea
__________________
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Brinniel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 08:38 AM   #205
Brinniel
Reflection of Darkness
 
Brinniel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 3,027
Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Analysis of Shasta:

Day 1

#28: Says he thinks Rikae is innocent.

He doesn't vote Day 1, which I don't find unordinary at all. I do wish he explained why he thought Rikae was innocent.

Day 2

#174: Finds morm's post desperate. Says he wants to look at Volo.

#184: Innocent: Kath, Sally, Might
Guilty: Legate, Volo, Morm
Votes Volo.

He doesn't explain why he votes Volo and that frustrates me.

Conclusion: Shasta doesn't say much...he never does and he couldn't easily get away as an under-the-radar wolf. He just pops in and out and doesn't explain any of his suspicions.
__________________
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Brinniel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 08:50 AM   #206
Brinniel
Reflection of Darkness
 
Brinniel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 3,027
Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Analysis of A Little Green:

Day 1

#41: Says anything can be called wolvish. Quiet/loud discussions are pointless. Doesn't find Valier wolfish.

#72: Might has weird behaviour, but not necessarily suspicious. Unsure of Valier. Finds Nerwen and Sally innocent.

#103: Doesn't see what's so suspicious about morm. Is unsure about Lommy. Nerwen is most suspicious.

Wait...she goes from thinking Nerwen probably innocent to most likely suspicious in two posts. I find that odd.

#123: Is uneasy about Lommy. If Nerwen's innocent, Lommy's a question mark. Votes Nerwen because she's the least non-suspicious of her options.

I find the "least non-suspicious" phrasing to be furry.

Day 2

#144: Thinks Lommy's analysis about morm's guilt is too obvious. Thinks Lommy is suspicious because she was loud and Nerwen is innocent.

I find the reason behind that suspicion odd.

Conclusion: Green is being very careful. She tries not to suspect someone too much and her reasonings behind her suspicions are weird. I'm finding her suspicious right now.
__________________
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Brinniel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 09:03 AM   #207
The Might
Guard of the Citadel
 
The Might's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Oxon
Posts: 2,287
The Might is a guest at the Prancing Pony.The Might is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
Aahh!!! I've been reading through the last 3 pages of the thread for a half an hour and I come to the same conclusion, such a big game is going to make my head explode if I keep trying to think who says what and why and all that stuff.
Anways, thanks Brinn for the analyses of the others, as I said before as a newbie I'll be more or less dependent on this stuff, as I don't know how different players act in certain situations.

About Legate, hard to say what I don't like about him now, but I kind of feel he is suspicious.
Same goes for Thinlómien.
I don't like how she considers Legate's posts so relaxed and calm. I am sure sure that a smart guy like Legate could well manage to post innocentishly even as a wolf.

Problem is that I can't really say I definitely feel someone is a wolf, I'm quite unsure about the others for now.

Probably will X with Brinniel.
__________________
“The invisible and the non-existent look very much alike.”
Delos B. McKown
The Might is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 09:15 AM   #208
Brinniel
Reflection of Darkness
 
Brinniel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 3,027
Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Analysis of Lommy:

Day 1

#32: Thinks people shouldn't grumble about quiets- they leave trails too. Disagrees with Valier that loud players easily stay hidden. Finds Brinn slightly furry.

#36: Doesn't see what's so suspicious about Valier- she seems normal. Doesn't want to vote Green because she's a newbie. Finds Nerwen suspicious because of her comment about Rikae on Mac.

#47: Volo makes sense. Disagrees with Fea's style. Green is too quick to agree, too distant.

#57: Nerwen is flip-flopping. Still suspects Brinn and Green. Feels okay about Aganzir, Volo, Mac. Legate and Valier seem innocent. Might's self-vote is odd: "suspicious in innocent way"

#80: Suspects Nerwen for defensiveness, but not pursuing her. Finds Kath's vote "futile." Plans to bring in a 4th candidate, though doesn't want double lynching.

Why would you bring in another candidate if you're worried about double lynching?

#91: Valier innocent for lurking comment, but furry for the seerish comment (the one's that's been discussed). Thinks Fea seems innocent. Legate's teacherish attitude is troublesome. Finds Nerwen's later posts more suspicious.

#126: Votes Nerwen. States it won't look good for her if Nerwen is innocent.

Nothing grabs me here. I find Lommy's arguments to mostly be quite reasonable.

Day 2

#137: Says Valier's death was because the wolfves thought she was the seer.

Note: she was the first to make this statement

#142: A long analysis. Basically, thinks the wolves thought Valier dreamt of morm, therefore he is guilty.

Through all this analysis, I find it strange she didn't even think of the possibilty that morm was framed.

#151: States that wolves will sacrifice one of their own to get rid of the seer. Finds Green's comments about her suspicious. Suspects morm and Green.

#156: Responding to Rikae. It's possible Valier's death was a framing, but why pick morm to frame?

Because morm was highly suspected yesterDay, therefore more lynchable.

#166: Says Farael makes good points on Rikae.

#185: Feels better about morm after post #175. Not certain.

#187: Innocent: Volo, Mac, Farael, Legate, Shasta
Neutral: Fea, Aganzir, Menel, Kath
Suspicious: Sally, Brinn, Might, Kuru, Morm, Green

Conclusion: Lommy seemed alright Day 1, but toDay her attitude towards morm is odd and it makes me very slightly suspicious of her. But still, I have doubts. After all, would a wolf really act as obvious as Lommy is?
__________________
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Brinniel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 09:17 AM   #209
Legate of Amon Lanc
A Voice That Gainsayeth
 
Legate of Amon Lanc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,606
Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil View Post
Aganzir - furry? I don't know. I don't like his accusation of Lommy and I feel like I missed something between Ag and Legate, because 'that's definitely not how it works at us'... It's the 'at us.' Is it just a grammar slip? The meaning of the sentence is lost on me.
Very simple, Fea. It was a reply to my remark pointing at the male-chauvinistic manners in the Sackville-Bagginses' family. Though I must say it's a good objection to be raised, since if at any hobbit family, it definitely does nor work like that at the Sackville-Bagginses from what we know. I have to remember that for further, since it was obviously off-role.

But anyway, it is a comment that does not concern the game itself.

And by the way, Aganzir is a "she".
__________________
"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories
Legate of Amon Lanc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 09:30 AM   #210
Brinniel
Reflection of Darkness
 
Brinniel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 3,027
Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Analysis of Legate:

Day 1

#33: Finds Rikae strange, but says she's always that way. Menel isn't suspicious and Brinn's genuine. Green's posts are bit too structured. Kuru is strange.

#34: Lommy's post is most calming and helpful, Brinn's is also good. Valier seems contradicting.

#45: Thinks Nerwen is too self-critical. Makes a comment about the possiblity of Green and Valier as wolves.

#83: Thinks Might is fishy. Lommy doesn't seem wolfish; is more convinced that Nerwen is. Worried about morm, though his posts are so far reasonable.

#87: Nerwen's defensive nature is suspicious. Doesn't like Kuru's one-liners.

#115: Votes Nerwen.

I agree with a lot of what he has to say, and don't see anything suspicious here.

Day 2

#153: Says Agan has weak points- no one would kill Valier for only her hunches thought dangerous. Thinks it's more probable morm was framed, though it could be a double bluff. Thinks Lommy's post looks confused and innocentish.

#162: Finds morm's reply wolfish.

Conclusion: Day 2, and I still think Legate is talking sense. Going all the way back to his first game, I know how dangerous a furry Legate can be, so I will be wary...but still, I think it's more likely he's innocent for now at least.
__________________
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Brinniel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 09:42 AM   #211
Brinniel
Reflection of Darkness
 
Brinniel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 3,027
Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Analysis of Aganzir:

Day 1

#48: Agreeing with Lommy, states it's possible to catch the quiets by seeing how other wolves treat them. Legate, Menel, and Volo are genuine, and Nerwen is reasonable. Agrees with Rikae. Finds nothing wolfish about Lommy.

#99: Thinks Lommy is protecting Green. Is neutral about Valier and wary of Nerwen. Doesn't think Might is a wolf.

#108: Considers voting for Nerwen for attempting to divert suspicion from her.

#120: Votes Nerwen.

No red flags here.

#141: Agrees that Valier could've been mistaken for seer. Or her hunches were too dangerous or a quiet wolf was worried about her first comment.

#186: Doesn't like how Lommy points Valier's death to seer hints. Thinks Menel comments too much about how he's surprised to be alive. Is wary of Brinn, Fea, and Volo for only speculating about morm and Valier.

About the first comment: I find it strange she accuses Lommy for this reason, when she happened to agree with her earlier.

Conclusion: While she seems a bit more contradictory toDay, nothing immediately alarms me.
__________________
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Brinniel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 09:49 AM   #212
Brinniel
Reflection of Darkness
 
Brinniel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 3,027
Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Analysis of Farael

Day 2

#155: Mentions that Rikae accuses Nerwen then shifts it to Lommy. Thinks Rikae is too aggressive and finds her wolfish.

#161: Still doesn't like Rikae. Finds Lommy flip-flopping.

#176: Finds Rikae's behaviour suspicious and vote her. If Rikae's a wolf, look at Brinn.

Doesn't realise Rikae has already withdrawn.

Conclusion: While I tend to agree with his thoughts on Rikae, I don't know enough about him to form any sort of opinion yet.

Yay, I'm done analysing. My back hurts from sitting at the computer so long. I don't think I'll ever be this analytical on Day 2 again, not with this many people.
__________________
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Brinniel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 09:53 AM   #213
Meneltarmacil
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
 
Meneltarmacil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: The bottom of the ocean, discussing philosophy with a giant squid
Posts: 2,287
Meneltarmacil is a guest of Tom Bombadil.
A few points to bring up:

My comments about being eaten were only sarcastic jokes based on past events. If my ancestors weren't attracting enough suspicion on Day 1, the wolves usually killed them on Night 1.

Now, as to my bandwagoning, what was I supposed to do? Mormegil had attracted three votes due to the fact that he genuinely looked suspicious. I had noticed a distinctive change in his style and had seen him posting random accusations early on. My vote was based on actual suspicions and not just because morm had a lot of votes.

As for who voted whom:

Of the four wolves, I'd say two voted for Nerwen, one voted morm, and the last one could be anywhere, though I think Valier would be the best "wolf-bait" among the remaining candidates.
__________________
I ♣ baby seals.
Meneltarmacil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 10:00 AM   #214
Brinniel
Reflection of Darkness
 
Brinniel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 3,027
Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Okay, since I starting analysing, my opinions haven't really changed that much.

So, to put all the conclusions from my posts into one big list:

Leaning Innocent:
Mac
Might
Legate

Neutral:
Sally
Fea
Kuru
Kath
Aganzir
Farael

Slightly Suspicious:
Menel
Shasta
Lommy
Morm

Suspicious:
Green
Volo

Okay, I'm going to go sleep for awhile because I just spent the entire night doing WW. I'll be back before deadline, but no more flood posts from me toDay. *phew*
__________________
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Brinniel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 10:19 AM   #215
mormegil
Maundering Mage
 
mormegil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: New Hampshire
Posts: 4,661
mormegil is a guest at the Prancing Pony.mormegil is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
Sorry, I'm only to post 193 and while I may make it back in time before the deadline I'm not entirely sure abou it and if I do I doubtful will have a chance to do more than glance through and see the votes.

Sorry Legate...I did copy Kath's vote list *glares at Kath* I was lazy as it seems was Kath for that I apologize. Speaking of Kath, it does surprise me that she honestly suspects me. Others, it doesn't surprise me. Fea I did read your posts because I do/did suspect you so I wanted to see more of what you said and based upon that I still suspect you a bit but you seem more sensible on the matter...which kind of scares me honestly .

To clarify my first post of the day I did laugh (because it is funny at the attempt and I pictured old Lommy running out yelling that morm must be a wolf because Valier looked like a seer which I actually didn't pick up on...I felt her behavior was far more suspicious) at the wolves attempt as it was a very weak set up job but it has worked in so far as the whole day has been spent talking about me. Killing Valier was a benefit to them and the next day result was a calculated side benefit.

I'm going with my gut today and voting for Volo. I know most people think him innocent and that is one thing that scares me as he hasn't 'felt' right to me. I cannot pinpoint it but I feel there is something.

++Volo
__________________
When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators.
-- P. J. O'Rourke
mormegil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 10:34 AM   #216
The Might
Guard of the Citadel
 
The Might's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Oxon
Posts: 2,287
The Might is a guest at the Prancing Pony.The Might is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
So if counted correctly so far we have
Morm - 1 (Sally) and
Volo - 2 (Shasta and Morm)

Problem is that I don't feel I'm any closer to really being sure of who the wolves are...the good thing is that today I'll probably be online before the deadline so count me in for the finishing discussion. Maybe that will help.
__________________
“The invisible and the non-existent look very much alike.”
Delos B. McKown
The Might is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 10:34 AM   #217
Thinlómien
Shady She-Penguin
 
Thinlómien's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,385
Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.
I don't really know what to think of this sudden outpour of Brinniel's, so maybe I try not to think about it all...

Somehow, I don't like the fact that Legate is so sure of my innocence. It makes me feel like he had realised I tend to trust those who trust me and is using it to achieve his own ends. Or something like that. The point is, it makes him feel slightly suspicious to me.

This might be a bit ridiculous point, but I think Little G's way of using the -smiley is very wolvish. I really can't explain it, but somehow it always makes me shiver when she uses it. I think she uses it in a slightly apologetic way or to emphasise she's no threat to anyone.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenie
You see, Lommy, as it happens I have no idea of what wolves "usually" do. Your comment seems somewhat sensible, though.
Did I say you should have?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenie
Lommy, what made you suddenly think morm's manner as suspicious?
Rereading.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo
Sally: Now she sure hunts morm! She constantly flirts with the idea of being a Wolf, which seems like something a Wolf wouldn't do, but it's driving me crazy. I'm capable of imagining a Wolf who does that, even a newbie Wolf - no, especially a newbie Wolf. Sally appologised that she wouldn't be productive, and truly, she hasn't been productive. I'm thinking of she might be a Wolf who thinks of being very far from being lynched - there's not enough try there, as if her appologisive tone is an excuse for just being around.
The more I read her posts, the more I feel that that's our Wolf.
Now, that's well phrased. I was thinking along the same lines, but I couldn't have pinpointed it all like that. I agree with practically everything Volo says here.

Speaking of him, I find the beginning of his post #193 somewhat suspicious. I can't put my finger on it, but the way he speculates sounds somewhat wrong to me. If morm proves to be a wolf, I'd have a second look at Volo.

Anyway, I also agree with what Volo says about Green and morm. They do look like wolf partners, to some extent at least.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo
Because Legate and Lommy agree with me, I don't think that they are Wolves. If we are wrong, I'll look at them more closely.
Agree about what?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
He doesn't explain why he votes Volo and that frustrates me.
Yes, Shasta, could you please explain this the next time you're around?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TM
Anways, thanks Brinn for the analyses of the others, as I said before as a newbie I'll be more or less dependent on this stuff, as I don't know how different players act in certain situations.
I'm really a bit worried about how much you trust or claim to trust other people.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TM
I don't like how she considers Legate's posts so relaxed and calm. I am sure sure that a smart guy like Legate could well manage to post innocentishly even as a wolf.
I think he would well be able to do that. But his calmness and relaxedness seems mostly more of the innocent sort - I think calm and relaxed wolves tend to be more distant than relaxed and calm innocents. I really can't explain it very well, so maybe I just should say his manner seems innocentish.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fea
My question about Lommy: when you jumped in to post that Valier's death looks like morm's guilt, did you believe it, or were you just being the first one to publicly admit to the possibility?
I wanted to admit the possibility (admit? now I'm not sure if that's a good word because it sounds like I and morm had a furry alliance...) but I also thought the most probable reason for Valier's death. So I could say I believed in morm's guilt, but that might be a bit exaggerated as I really wasn't sure (and am even more unsure now since there have been credible arguments for morm's innocence being a 50-50 possibility at least).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
Through all this analysis, I find it strange she didn't even think of the possibilty that morm was framed.
Isn't analysis something well-ordered that makes sense? Anyway, what about this comment:
Quote:
Originally Posted by me, bolding added later
If I try to imagine her as the seer, it sounds more like she had dreamt of morm than that she hadn't, but on the other hand, why would she as the seer suspected morm-wolf that loudly? So her being killed as the seer doesn't necessarily point at morm being a wolf. I mean, the wolves might have killed her even if morm was an innocent. Certainly the wolves knew, though, that Valier's death would point at morm.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
Why would you bring in another candidate if you're worried about double lynching?
Simply because I knew I'm not guilty and morm and TM didn't seem particularly suspicious to me. I didn't think bringing in a fourth candidate would greatly increase the risk of a double-lynch and I'd rather vote someone suspicious even if it increases the minimalistic risk of a double lynch a little than vote for someone I don't suspect at all just to be 99,9% sure there will be no double-lynch.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
Because morm was highly suspected yesterDay, therefore more lynchable.
True, but he was not the only one who would have been easy to frame, if you ask me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Menel
Of the four wolves, I'd say two voted for Nerwen, one voted morm, and the last one could be anywhere, though I think Valier would be the best "wolf-bait" among the remaining candidates.
Is there any actual reason for you to think that way? Making that kind of assumptions on futile grounds is more than dangerous.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fea
I did make that post. In 140/165 when I hit edit instead of quote and ended up replacing my list of Val-posts:
Oh, sorry, I really seem to be quite stupid or confused for I did read that post... I think you seem a bit more innocent than guilty, but I'm definitely not sure, you tend to be such an enigma...

As to who I might vote toDay, I would feel the safest with voting Green. I suspect her quite a lot. I could vote morm too but this morm-Valier -thing seems to be all too complicated and messy and I really should think more about it before voting morm. If I don't have time to think more about it, I don't think I will vote him, unless I should choose between him and someone I consider far more innocentish. I could vote Sally or TM too, but I'd prefer voting Greenie (or morm, if I reach the conclusion he does seem guilty).

EDIT: xed with morm and Miggy
__________________
Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer
Blood is running deep, some things never sleep
Double Fenris

Last edited by Thinlómien; 12-02-2007 at 10:45 AM. Reason: marked who posted one of the quotes
Thinlómien is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 10:45 AM   #218
satansaloser2005
The Sweetest Spoiler
 
satansaloser2005's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,810
satansaloser2005 is lost in the dark paths of Moria.satansaloser2005 is lost in the dark paths of Moria.satansaloser2005 is lost in the dark paths of Moria.satansaloser2005 is lost in the dark paths of Moria.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo View Post
Leaning Good:
Because Legate and Lommy agree with me, I don't think that they are Wolves. If we are wrong, I'll look at them more closely. Both feel Innocent toDay.
Mac
The Might
Fea

I don't have any ideas formed about these at the moment:

Meneltarmacil
Aganzir
Farael
Shastanis Althreduin
Kuruharan

There's something nasty there, I'll see to it when I have the time:
Kath
Brinniel


I'm late for a meeting and I Xd with everything since #188.




you left me off your list love.



P.S. I just realized that Morm voted Volo. So chain of events is Sally votes Morm, Volo finds Sally suspicious for picking on Morm, Morm votes Volo. Unless my logic is hugely flawed, that means that it is unlikely that both of us are wolves, Morm and I that is. Because A: why the heck would I vote him both days so vigorously, unless I am either incredibly stupid or incredibly clever, B: the same for Morm's actions today in a way, voting someone who finds me suspicious is either ballsy or idiotic, C: okay I can't think of a C right now but that's alright I'm sure someone else will analyze this post in a bit anyway.

I'm making no comment on my potential wolfishness really because it's not worth my time to be honest. Just pointing out that if one of us is lynched or killed and revealed as a wolf, the other is most likely not a wolf. (Which is me by the way the non-wolf me yes me i'm an ordo! sorry quick plug for kicks and giggles) Just for reference. (That sounds hugely suspicious but I'm tired so I can't really explain it any better right now.)



Ah, huzzah it seems I have caused a bit of a stir! Yay!

Okay now I really must run or I'll be late for church.
__________________
"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit."
Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together.
Fenris bookworm.

Last edited by satansaloser2005; 12-02-2007 at 10:48 AM. Reason: forgot to bold my bloody post :p
satansaloser2005 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 10:48 AM   #219
The Might
Guard of the Citadel
 
The Might's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Oxon
Posts: 2,287
The Might is a guest at the Prancing Pony.The Might is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
Somehow, I don't like the fact that Legate is so sure of my innocence. It makes me feel like he had realised I tend to trust those who trust me and is using it to achieve his own ends. Or something like that. The point is, it makes him feel slightly suspicious to me.
Hmmm, now this seems to be an explanation of why you both trust each other. Question is why you felt then need to explain this, is there something that must be hidden, or do you really suspect him?

He said he trusts you in #153, and yet in #187 when you made the list of people you see him as one of the innocents. Why is it that he trusting became suspicious now and not earlier? Does it have anything to do with me feeling bad about both of you?

Now, I'm not sure, but after this post my suspicion of you seems to make more sense.
__________________
“The invisible and the non-existent look very much alike.”
Delos B. McKown

Last edited by The Might; 12-02-2007 at 10:51 AM. Reason: xed with the strange and ery confusing post of Sally
The Might is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 10:51 AM   #220
Feanor of the Peredhil
La Belle Dame sans Merci
 
Feanor of the Peredhil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: perpetual uncertainty
Posts: 5,956
Feanor of the Peredhil is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Feanor of the Peredhil is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Feanor of the Peredhil is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Send a message via MSN to Feanor of the Peredhil
++GREEN

Because I have to leave and won't be back before deadline.

Because the person I voted for yesterday has since stopped looking worrisome to me.

Because of all the players I could choose, especially four hours before deadline, Green is the one who seems both wolfish-and-confusing.

She fits into both of my preferences for who to vote for: her actions make me think she's guilty ("What? Me? How could I be guilty, I barely even know who mormegil is!") and other people seem to agree with my instincts on this one (which means it's not necessarily me just making things up).
__________________
peace
Feanor of the Peredhil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 11:01 AM   #221
Meneltarmacil
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
 
Meneltarmacil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: The bottom of the ocean, discussing philosophy with a giant squid
Posts: 2,287
Meneltarmacil is a guest of Tom Bombadil.
Following recent comments (and a couple of votes), I've gone to look at everything Volo has said and now return to present my conclusions.

Volo mentions suspicion of two people: Legate and Valier. Legate just seems thrown in there with little reason other than "he's too friendly," and mild suspicion of him is discussed. His reasons for Valier-voting are mainly simple agreement with what has been said, which does sound strange.

Now, his behavior on Day 2 is very odd. He rapidly changes his position on Valier's death, but leaves the focus on what the implications for morm might be. However, he seems to leave out the fact that he may also be implicated in her death.

We may have a wolf here, but with the emphasis on "may." If morm is a wolf, Volo probably isn't, as two wolves voting for Valier would be unlikely given last night's events. For the moment I'll just be watching Volo carefully.
__________________
I ♣ baby seals.
Meneltarmacil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 11:19 AM   #222
Volo
Silver in My Silent Heart
 
Volo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: the great beauty
Posts: 1,691
Volo has been trapped in the Barrow!
Send a message via Skype™ to Volo
Popping in to answer, haven't read all. Family'll throw me out if I don't go party Chrismas with them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
WHAT??? That's probably the most peculiar argument I've seen this far. Could you explain again, Volo? Unexplained, I definitely find this argument disturbing.
Simple. 1. I think that they're honest because I conclude as they do independadly. For proof look at my post at about 11PM GMT where I promise to show my ideas and my preveous post which is nearly a cross-post with Legate and Lommy so I couldn't have searched for my thoughts about you and Sally after Legates post so fast.
2. A lot will be cleared about them if our suspects are Innocent or Wolves. Which will reveal a lot (to me) about both Lommy's and Legate's roles. I find it stupid to suspect them at this point.
__________________
Fenris Wolf
The *EVEN NEWER* Barrow-Downs Photo Page
Volo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 11:53 AM   #223
A Little Green
Leaf-clad Lady
 
A Little Green's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,586
A Little Green is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.A Little Green is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.A Little Green is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.A Little Green is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.
Send a message via MSN to A Little Green
First of all, I'm still unfomfortable with Lommy. I can't quite put a finger on it. There's something about her overly cheerful and helpful manner I find suspicious.

Secondly, after reading carefully through the entire thread, I found Menel's continuous joking about not being eaten disturbing. Also, it seems to me that he's been overly careful in voicing his opinions. I find him quite suspicious.

Volo is troubling me greatly at the moment. Though his latest post explained a little, there is definitely something there I don't like. Just a gut-feeling, probably.

So. Votes this far (if I'm not mistaken):
morm - 1
Volo - 2
Greenie - 1

morm, like I've said before, strikes me as innocent. Volo is suspicious, but I'd be reluctant to vote for him because I don't have valid arguments against him.

Therefore, my vote today will most probably be Menel. (Or Lommy, if she convinces me of her guilt before the deadline.) I'm ready to go for Volo as well if there is a great possibility of a double-lynch that my voting for Volo would prevent.
__________________
"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."
A Little Green is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 11:57 AM   #224
Macalaure
Fading Fëanorion
 
Macalaure's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,947
Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
I'm back. I only skim-read the posts of today so far, and I'm very disturbed. Except Rikae, Legate, and Brinn, nobody really mentioned me at all! That's unnatural. There's something wrong in here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Mac, just a note. If you think my vote was fishy in any way, look at my post #105. A post before, you personally pointed out the danger of double-lynch and I was the first one who asked whether people are going to vote Nerwen and then after me there was the line of others, including you, who confirmed they'll vote for Nerwen.
All Nerwen voters past that point look suspicious to me. Yes, you were the first, and if you are a wolf, you wisely picked Nerwen, who many have mentioned as suspicious before, and brought her to the front. You did't discuss other possibilities at that point.
I don't have anything good against you otherwise yet. I'll properly read everything now, and then I'll see clearer, I hope.
Macalaure is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 12:16 PM   #225
Volo
Silver in My Silent Heart
 
Volo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: the great beauty
Posts: 1,691
Volo has been trapped in the Barrow!
Send a message via Skype™ to Volo
Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo
Because Legate and Lommy agree with me, I don't think that they are Wolves. If we are wrong, I'll look at them more closely.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
Agree about what?
About who are suspicious.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
you left me off your list love.
Yes, dear, I reserved a special place above the list for you, a place called "suspicious".
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
Because A: why the heck would I vote him both days so vigorously, unless I am either incredibly stupid or incredibly clever, B: the same for Morm's actions today in a way, voting someone who finds me suspicious is either ballsy or idiotic, C: okay I can't think of a C right now but that's alright I'm sure someone else will analyze this post in a bit anyway.
I like the "incredibly clever" part. The only thing here than makes me suspect you less is than you're a newbie, but Wolves frequently vote eachother, otherwise finding them would be much easier as we would know outright who can't be a Wolf after we find who was a Wolf. Since morm was in no real danger of being lynched, it was safe to vote him to cover tracks. And if he is in real danger of being lynched, it's easy to hide among the votes as your vote can't save him anyway. (Umm... Why am I explaining these things anyway... I find you suspicious and if you're a Wolf you probably understand it anyway.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
Somehow, I don't like the fact that Legate is so sure of my innocence. It makes me feel like he had realised I tend to trust those who trust me and is using it to achieve his own ends. Or something like that. The point is, it makes him feel slightly suspicious to me.
I find it funny that you would say something like this as you have pretty much trusted me the whole game and agreed with nearly everything I have said, or at least told me as much. And why doesn't my trust for you and Legate turn on such alarms? The thought that you have noticed that I trust people who agree with me (Heck, I even said so myself in the preveous post.) and used it against us comes into my mind.
But I am not going to vote you or Legate toDay. I'm very sure that tomorrow will make these things much clearer.

And another note about Lommy & Legate: Even if I'm wrong in trusting them, I find it extremely improbable that both of them are Wolves, there is too much agreement between them, even if their lists aren't completely alike. And since there is no Cobbler in this game, I'm sure than at least one of them does deserve our trust.


I'll leave this at this and move to look into Kath's, Brinniel's and Mac's (Since you asked for it... ) souls or something like that.
__________________
Fenris Wolf
The *EVEN NEWER* Barrow-Downs Photo Page
Volo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 12:26 PM   #226
Aganzir
Woman of Secret Shadow
 
Aganzir's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,607
Aganzir is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Aganzir is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Aganzir is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Aganzir is lost in the dark paths of Moria.
Fea, I think the wolves probably thought Valier was the seer, as I said in my post #141. The thing I didn't like was that Lommy was being so sure that was the case, as if she hadn't considered any other options at all.

Greenie, Lommy asked Kuru to elaborate what was suspicious in her behaviour. Kuru replied that it sounded like Lommy was trying to find out what to do better in order not to get caught. The way Menel asked Rikae to elaborate what she found suspicious with Mac looked to me like he was asking it on behalf of a fellow wolf so that Mac would be able to fix his behaviour without being noticed.

**

Innocent:
Legate
Farael

(Rikae)

Suspicious:
Greenie. She's all too friendly, asks way too much and doesn't have opinions of her own. That's not what I would expect from her, even as a newbie. No offence, but according to my experiences, I really think you are a better player than that.
Sally. Her post #218 makes me cry.
Brinniel. The more I read her posts, the worse feeling from them. I still find her first post empty, toDay's first posts she speculated what morm has to do with Valier's death, and now this enormous analysis project.
Menel. Explained in #186.

Somewhere in the middle:
Mac
Thinlómien. I don't like how she was so sure that Valier was killed because of being considered the seer. Only the wolves know it for sure. She was also almost immediately suspecting morm. But if the wolves knew Valier's death would point at morm, why on earth would one of them be the first one to say it rather than wait for someone else to do it?
Volo. I really don't understand why he thinks Lommy's probably been dreamt of. It almost looks like he's trying to protect a fellow wolf.

No idea:
Might
Mormegil. I don't understand though why non-voters are highly suspicious; I think it's easier for a wolf to avoid too much attention and vote.
Feanor
Kath
Shasta
Kuruharan


I won't probably be able to be here until deadline toDay so I'll vote in an hour.

edit: xed since Greenie. Based on that post of hers I can say I am probably going to vote for her. Sorry dear, but (also) that was quite... non-genuine.
__________________
He bit me, and I was not gentle.

Last edited by Aganzir; 12-02-2007 at 12:30 PM.
Aganzir is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 12:27 PM   #227
Kath
Everlasting Whiteness
 
Kath's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams
Posts: 4,725
Kath is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Kath is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Kath is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.
Send a message via MSN to Kath
My apologies, but it's going to have to be an early vote again. My suspicions remain the same as they did earlier, and for the same reasons, but I do want to mention that my suspicion of Brinniel has increased after the deluge of posts she made earlier. It's reminiscent of a wolvish tactic I once used so it worries me. However, my main suspicion remains with:

++A LITTLE GREEN
__________________
“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”
Kath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 01:06 PM   #228
Macalaure
Fading Fëanorion
 
Macalaure's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,947
Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
I finished reading properly until my first post today. Here's what I found so far.

This still seems staged for me:
Lommy carefully accuses morm to have killed Valier, then he mocks it. Then Lommy continues along the lines of a frame. Then both slowly back down from their mutual suspicion. If Lommy and morm are wolves, this would make sense to me. They feared Valier was the seer, and now they try to keep people away from going after morm by making it clear, by a weak case and ridicule, that morm is no wolf and is being framed by them. I might be over-interpreting, but this is how it appears to me.

By the way, if morm is evil, it's not a double-bluff: it's a semi-double-bluff, because in the first place he would have expected to sacrifice himself over a killed seer who dreamt of him, and is now using plan B.

Aganzir and Lily (*is inspired by Fea's Lil*) talk about the loud/silent arguments of Valier in the beginning. I find this suspicious as it's too obvious this had nothing to do with her death.

Farael is a little too aggressive for my liking, but that's him. He feels genuine, though. A lot of people quickly took up his suspicion of Rikae. These reactions are worth examining tomorrow, when we know her role.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo
Looking at yesterDay, I'm quite sure that Lommy has been Seered upon.
explain?
Macalaure is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 01:18 PM   #229
Thinlómien
Shady She-Penguin
 
Thinlómien's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,385
Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.
Sally's post #218 is something all too wolvish. I mean, if she knew she herself was innocent, she wouldn't surely speculate that way.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TM
Hmmm, now this seems to be an explanation of why you both trust each other. Question is why you felt then need to explain this, is there something that must be hidden, or do you really suspect him?

He said he trusts you in #153, and yet in #187 when you made the list of people you see him as one of the innocents. Why is it that he trusting became suspicious now and not earlier? Does it have anything to do with me feeling bad about both of you?

Now, I'm not sure, but after this post my suspicion of you seems to make more sense.
There's nothing that must be hidden, from my part at least. I don't actually suspect him, since he seems mostly innocent to me, but that is just a suspicious streak in his behaviour I thought I'd like to mention. As to why it became suspicious only now, well, it only started to feel a bit odd after he had made that zone-post of his and named me and some other people as probably innocent with no further explanations. So, it doesn't have anything to do with your suspicions, sorry.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo
I find it funny that you would say something like this as you have pretty much trusted me the whole game and agreed with nearly everything I have said, or at least told me as much. And why doesn't my trust for you and Legate turn on such alarms? The thought that you have noticed that I trust people who agree with me (Heck, I even said so myself in the preveous post.) and used it against us comes into my mind.
I know why I've said I think you innocent and agree with you almost all the time, but I have no way of knowing why does Legate say he thinks me innocent. I mean, I know I say I think you innocent because I genuinely think so, but I can't know if Legate says he thinks me innocent because he really does so or because he tries to make me trust him or something else suspicious. As to your trust of me and Legate, well, it simply hasn't caught my eye the way Legate's trust for me did. Maybe you're just a subtler wolf than Legate is...

Lastly, a few words about Little Green. She seems like a class example of a newbie wolf. She goes along with the popular suspects and sticks to the one suspicion she's had during all the game. She also seems to pretend no one suspects her at all and doesn't react at all to the accusations against her. That's exactly what I did in my second game ever when I was evil. It is a very common wolvish mistake, one that especially inexperienced wolves tend to do. So (Aganzir, you may gasp now, since you've been waiting for this ), Little Green, I give you a piece of advice, if you're innocent, start defending yourself against the false accusations. You're one of my top suspects right now and I will most probably vote you. You're doing no good to my opinion of you by discounting all the accusations towards you. I give you a chance to make me change my opinion of you: defend yourself in a credible manner and if I'm convinced, I will refrain from voting you (at least toDay). A credible defense may change other people's views of you as well.

EDIT: xed with Mac
__________________
Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer
Blood is running deep, some things never sleep
Double Fenris
Thinlómien is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 01:31 PM   #230
Legate of Amon Lanc
A Voice That Gainsayeth
 
Legate of Amon Lanc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,606
Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.
Alright, some views on the current situation.

I see many people speak about Lilla Greenhand here as being suspicious. Well, for myself I can say she seemed more or less genuine to me at the beginning and that this image is beginning to dissolve slowly, as I said before. The opinions she holds in her #223 could make me suspect her more: given her overall behavior, she seems to follow certain long-time suspects, and she holds to them whatever the case. Also, she seems to defend morm, which, in the case he were a were a were a were wolf (sorry, that was the keyboard), could point to her as a pack-mate, and vice versa. But the main thing are the long-time suspects, as I said - bite and hold, maybe once the bit of flesh will fall off. That moves her to the orange zone for me.

However, what strikes me as terribly wolfish was Sally's post:
Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
P.S. I just realized that Morm voted Volo. So chain of events is Sally votes Morm, Volo finds Sally suspicious for picking on Morm, Morm votes Volo. Unless my logic is hugely flawed, that means that it is unlikely that both of us are wolves, Morm and I that is. Because A: why the heck would I vote him both days so vigorously, unless I am either incredibly stupid or incredibly clever, B: the same for Morm's actions today in a way, voting someone who finds me suspicious is either ballsy or idiotic, C: okay I can't think of a C right now but that's alright I'm sure someone else will analyze this post in a bit anyway.
And even the rest of it. I don't see that she would be as much attacked upon, but look what she does! "It is unlikely that both of US are wolves" - what is that supposed to mean? I would understand if she said that about someone else. I would understand if she said that at the point when, let's say, morm revealed a wolf and she were accused. But this? Why? How? What?
I simply don't get this comment. I said before what I thought about her posting, and I tried to be reserved because I had problems with not being suspicious on her because of her style even if she were innocent. But I cannot resist now and switch her into the red alert zone. Unless there appears another candidate in my red zone, or unless there is any voting crisis and threat upon someone whom I consider innocent, I'll probably vote her toDay.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy
__________________
"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories
Legate of Amon Lanc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 01:42 PM   #231
Aganzir
Woman of Secret Shadow
 
Aganzir's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,607
Aganzir is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Aganzir is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Aganzir is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Aganzir is lost in the dark paths of Moria.
++ Greenie
__________________
He bit me, and I was not gentle.
Aganzir is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 01:48 PM   #232
Macalaure
Fading Fëanorion
 
Macalaure's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,947
Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Brinniel looks very helpful with her analyses. (20+ pages? *bows*) What I usually like about analyses, is that they often tell you more about the analyser than about the analysed. Unfortunately, most of Brinn's conclusions are lacking a bit decisiveness, which make them less helpful in this regard. I'm wary.

Some good points have been raised about Sally.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir
The way Menel asked Rikae to elaborate what she found suspicious with Mac looked to me like he was asking it on behalf of a fellow wolf so that Mac would be able to fix his behaviour without being noticed.
I don't take advice on these matters. As can be seen in the last game, if I'm a badly playing wolf, I want to be a seriously badly playing wolf.

And finally: after reading what he said today, I feel better about Legate. But the Eye is still on him.


After about two straight hours of werewolf reading, I think I need to rest my brain for a while now. I'll be back soon and think about who I will vote for.
Macalaure is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 01:54 PM   #233
The Might
Guard of the Citadel
 
The Might's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Oxon
Posts: 2,287
The Might is a guest at the Prancing Pony.The Might is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
Just to keep the votes in mind both for myself and for you:

A Little Green -3 (Feanor, Kath, Aganzir)
Volo - 2 (Shasta, mormegil)
mormegil - 1 (Sally)

Which now makes me quite confused. Because I too thought that mormegil was a bit fishy, but as Sally seems quite wolvish after that confusing post I am not sure what to believe, since she did vote for him.

This definitely makes me think of morm as a probably innocent one, then again I hope this won't prove to be a mistake.

One hour to the deadline left, I'm off to learn some physics, but I'll be back at a quarter to ten approximatively to see what the final discussion will bring. (quite excited, as it's the first one I take part in)
__________________
“The invisible and the non-existent look very much alike.”
Delos B. McKown

Last edited by The Might; 12-02-2007 at 01:57 PM. Reason: xed mit Mac and bolded the names
The Might is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 02:18 PM   #234
Volo
Silver in My Silent Heart
 
Volo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: the great beauty
Posts: 1,691
Volo has been trapped in the Barrow!
Send a message via Skype™ to Volo
So many players could be called under-the-radar flyers. Not that they aren't noticed, but they are not discussed. Probably that's good for now as this large number of players is taking a toll on me, I really wouldn't want to participate in the game I modded .

Kath leaves me completely baffled. And the problem is that she seemes to leave pretty much everybody else baffled as well, even Fea. Mac would appear the only one suspecting her. I don't remember an Innocent Kath doing that, at the very least she has been suspicious. Since it is the case, I hope to see more of her in the Days to come.


Brinniel:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
I find Valier's vote to be a bit odd. Mainly because I can't see what's so suspicious about morm.
Flashback to Lily's (Haha, funny, I'll use that, although it would help us to decide one name for each player, that would help using "search" a lot.) post. That's all.
Really - except for her analysis, which is obviously very unrational *joke* - she looks rational, useful - although I don't find much use in summaries like that, except when I write them myself, sorry Brin - and Innocent. As for Kath, I'd give her more time.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo
Looking at yesterDay, I'm quite sure that Lommy has been Seered upon.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
explain?
Shalln't, I really hope that is forgotten as it is. But if you insist - please don't - I will explain.
__________________
Fenris Wolf
The *EVEN NEWER* Barrow-Downs Photo Page
Volo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 02:24 PM   #235
A Little Green
Leaf-clad Lady
 
A Little Green's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,586
A Little Green is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.A Little Green is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.A Little Green is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.A Little Green is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.
Send a message via MSN to A Little Green
Well, what can I say?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
given her overall behavior, she seems to follow certain long-time suspects, and she holds to them whatever the case. Also, she seems to defend morm, which, in the case he were a were a were a were wolf (sorry, that was the keyboard), could point to her as a pack-mate, and vice versa.
Follow certain long-time suspects? Hmmm... talking about Lommy, right? Well, that might be due her behaviour staying pretty much the same all the time. Why change my opinion of her if she does not change?
Defend morm? I don't see that. I've said he looks innocent, even a couple of times, but surely if we were "pack-mates" I wouldn't do anyhting that obvious unless it was absolutely vital.

What else?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
This might be a bit ridiculous point, but I think Little G's way of using the -smiley is very wolvish. I really can't explain it, but somehow it always makes me shiver when she uses it. I think she uses it in a slightly apologetic way or to emphasise she's no threat to anyone.
Well, you're right about that being a ridiculous point at least I'm afraid I can't make a valid defence for my use of smileys, sorry.

The same goes for my giving overall wolvish vibes. What comes to asking way too much, that might be due to a rather peculiar aim of trying to understand people's points before making conclusions on them...

Being too friendly, eh? Well, I'm afraid I can't really defend myself in that either. Is it overly weird and suspicious to be friendly?

Having no opinion of my own? Well, I admit I have been wary of accusing people, mainly because nothing that has been said in here has convinced me enough to have me believe someone actually guilty. I would feel weird to start accusing people before being certain of their guilt. I suppose I should be content with mere vague suspicions, then. However, I'd feel like being very unfair if I started hot-headedly accusing people based on some gut-feelings or the words X used to say he'll be off for the rest of the day...

PS. No laughing smileys in this one. Content now, Lommy?

EDIT: x-ed with Mac, The Might and Volo
__________________
"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."
A Little Green is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 02:24 PM   #236
Farael
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
 
Farael's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: In hospitals, call rooms and (rarely) my apartment.
Posts: 1,549
Farael has just left Hobbiton.
Darn it, I just lost a really long post I was working on... guess we'll have to re-write it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
P.S. I just realized that Morm voted Volo. So chain of events is Sally votes Morm, Volo finds Sally suspicious for picking on Morm, Morm votes Volo. Unless my logic is hugely flawed, that means that it is unlikely that both of us are wolves, Morm and I that is. Because A: why the heck would I vote him both days so vigorously, unless I am either incredibly stupid or incredibly clever, B: the same for Morm's actions today in a way, voting someone who finds me suspicious is either ballsy or idiotic, C: okay I can't think of a C right now but that's alright I'm sure someone else will analyze this post in a bit anyway.

I'm making no comment on my potential wolfishness really because it's not worth my time to be honest. Just pointing out that if one of us is lynched or killed and revealed as a wolf, the other is most likely not a wolf. (Which is me by the way the non-wolf me yes me i'm an ordo! sorry quick plug for kicks and giggles) Just for reference. (That sounds hugely suspicious but I'm tired so I can't really explain it any better right now.)
Red flags are flying, alarm bells ringing, dogs barking, Nazghul wailing and Mt. Doom is in deep turmoil.

I have never seen a comment that looks so badly as a half-baked attempt at either killing someone by suicide (let's face it, if we kill her and she turns out a wolf, we'll HAVE to kill Morm) or the clumsiest attempt at distancing herself from Morm.

After all, no-one would be so "ballsy" (to quote her) as to make that very statement! And besides, "It is not worth (her) time, to be honest" to make a claim on her innocense.

GIMME A BREAK

It's a shame that I don't get a second vote.... that last statement alone propels her MUCH higher up my list than Greenie who has been consistently clueless throughout the game. Besides, here's a comment that makes greenie look innocent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
Lastly, a few words about Little Green. She seems like a class example of a newbie wolf. She goes along with the popular suspects and sticks to the one suspicion she's had during all the game. She also seems to pretend no one suspects her at all and doesn't react at all to the accusations against her. That's exactly what I did in my second game ever when I was evil. It is a very common wolvish mistake, one that especially inexperienced wolves tend to do. So (Aganzir, you may gasp now, since you've been waiting for this ), Little Green, I give you a piece of advice, if you're innocent, start defending yourself against the false accusations. You're one of my top suspects right now and I will most probably vote you. You're doing no good to my opinion of you by discounting all the accusations towards you. I give you a chance to make me change my opinion of you: defend yourself in a credible manner and if I'm convinced, I will refrain from voting you (at least toDay). A credible defense may change other people's views of you as well.
I don't know you folks, but this to me sounds like the folowing:

"Greenie, I am in a situation where I have to vote for you, even though you are an Ordo"

Note: The Seer would never be on such situation, since (knowing Greenie's ordishness) she'd avoid talking herself into a cornier voting-wise

"Now, I don't want my voting for you to come back and make me look wolfish, therefore if you give me a valid reason to avoid voting for you I will take it and look my flip-floppy self.... if not, I will have "proven" that I can't be a wolf by this previous 'advice' post"

Really Loomy has just shot up the threat list like a Balrog falls from the bridge of Moria.

Finally, I would like to apologise in advance if I'm wrong, but doing a set of lists like Brinniel did is a perfect strategy for a wolf with time to do such thing. My apologie is due to the fact that if she's an Ordo she did bust her rear-end to help us out and I'm suspecting her anyway.

Let's face it, what better way than to look absolutely innocent than by spending HOURS analysing other people? However:

Her conclusions are weak IMO... sure, she's noting what other people said (which we can all do by using the Search function) but after that she hasn't come up with a good idea of who may be a wolf.

Furthermore, she claimed that she'll only post "important" posts, and thus opening the way to present a biased picture of what happened so far. And we all know that many people rely on those "analysis" posts rather than reading through "20 pages" worth of notes.

Therefore, Brinniel may very well be an extremely cunning wolf here.

However, of the three mentioned, my "threat" list is as follows:

Satan's A Loser (and unfortunately, if she turns out a wolf Morm will look bad 'cos of her... but right now, I don't have a strong suspicion about Morm)
Loomy That post is just AWFUL... I understand a little flip-flop Loomy style, but that's a major fault.
Brinniel specially if Rikae winds up being furry.

Edit: Cross-posted with everyone after Volo's last.
__________________
I prepared Explosive Runes this morning.
Farael is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 02:26 PM   #237
Macalaure
Fading Fëanorion
 
Macalaure's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,947
Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
My main suspects right now are Lommy, Sally, A Little Green, mormegil, Aganzir, Legate, The Might, in more or less that order. They're followed by the only slightly suspicious Kath, Menel, Shasta, Brinn, and Volo. Only Fea, Farael, and Kuru feel really innocent to me at the moment.

Sally -> morm
Farael -> Rikae
Shasta -> Volo
morm -> Volo (Volo 2, morm 1)
Fea -> Lily (Volo 2, morm 1, Lily 1)
Kath -> Lily (Volo 2, Lily 2, morm 1)
Aganzir -> Lily (Lily 3, Volo 2, morm 1)

I'm torn between thinking Lily suspicious and genuine. I'd be ready to give her the benefit of doubt for one more day, because she's a newbie. I don't know what to do with Volo, but I'm not convinced of his guilt. I'd prefer to keep him around for the moment. Sally's behavior casts some doubt on the guilt of mormegil. I have a feeling I won't get any support for a lynching of Lommy.

I think I will either vote for A Little Green or for Sally.

(edit: crossed with Lily and Farael)
Macalaure is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 02:27 PM   #238
Meneltarmacil
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
 
Meneltarmacil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: The bottom of the ocean, discussing philosophy with a giant squid
Posts: 2,287
Meneltarmacil is a guest of Tom Bombadil.
I have now gone back and read the posts of A Little Green.

She strikes me as somebody who has failed to notice a couple of important things or is intentionally ignoring them.

First, she continually asks what is so suspicious about morm, despite the fact that reasons for suspicion have been given already. Second, she doesn't seem to understand why I'm being careful about voicing opinions and why I've made a couple of jokes about not being eaten.

The first point, as stated earlier, could indicate a morm-Green partnership.

The second part I will answer here. I am being careful with my opinions because stating every minor suspicion of mine early on in the game is the main reason my ancestors were lynched or eaten in those scenarios. This happened because said behavior was perceived as a way of pointing the innocent in the direction of the gallows. I've already addressed the jokes, so there is no need to repeat myself here.

Now I have also noticed morm making similar arguments against me based on the jokes. This agreement between him and Green is troubling.

As is the mysterious tendency for the two of them, along with a wolfish-looking Rikae to attack Lommy. I don't really know what to make of this issue, but perhaps somebody else might.

Something that must be pointed out about A Little Green: Both of my reasons for suspicion could easily result from inexperience. Number One could result from an unfamiliarity with mormegil's playing style while Number Two could happen to anyone who doesn't know about the frequency of lynches and wolf-killings in my history. Since A Little Green does seem to be kind of new here, I'm going to give her the benefit of the doubt for now and go with

++mormegil
__________________
I ♣ baby seals.
Meneltarmacil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 02:45 PM   #239
Macalaure
Fading Fëanorion
 
Macalaure's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,947
Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
15 minutes til deadline and many votes still to come in. Where is everybody? I don't like to point it out again today, but we're in danger of a double-lynch again...
Macalaure is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2007, 02:45 PM   #240
Volo
Silver in My Silent Heart
 
Volo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: the great beauty
Posts: 1,691
Volo has been trapped in the Barrow!
Send a message via Skype™ to Volo
It's either Lily or Sally for me, but since voting Sally would be rather risky and hurried at this point...

++ A Little Green


EDIT: Xd with Mac
__________________
Fenris Wolf
The *EVEN NEWER* Barrow-Downs Photo Page
Volo is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:50 AM.



Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9 Beta 4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.