WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[The Might]

Typical of a wolf to blame innocents when they are vulnerable, isn't that right Mac?
I've said it before and I repeat it again, if you need a proof, I shall vote for whoever you, the others will consider most suspicious.
Do you really want to weaken the village by lynching another, even if not so skilled, ordo?
Well, I am not sure what I should do to prove my innocence and I feel sorry that probably because of me we'll lose this game.

[Aganzir]

This situation is slightly annoying me. We do half of the work for the wolves.

Originally Posted by The Might

If you want proof that I am not a wolf, then I shall vote for whoever is considered to be a wolf by most.

But that's not a proof that you're not a wolf. That's a proof that you want to remain alive, cost what it will.

It's 8-3 now. Could we possibly decide to avoid double-lynches from now on?

I don't know what to think about The Might. First he says he would vote for sally, then he counts the votes and votes morm, causing a double lynch. To me this looks extremely suspicious.

I think Might and Brinniel are likely to be fellow wolves. I'll explain it better when I have more time (this night or tomorrow, rl).

Originally Posted by Lommy

but right now I feel that Menel and Aganzir might be furry

The same thing happened with your mammoth-theory: at least half was wrong.

Originally Posted by Might

Volo's post right before my vote seems quite wolvish as well.

To me it seems rather quite voloish.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Volo, underlinings mine

I trust noone, myself the least...
Most suspicious: Menel, Might, Lommy, Brinn.

--

The feeling before Kath's death, Aganzir being least suspicious and Menel being the most suspicious.
Aganzir
Thinlómien
Farael
Shastanis Althreduin
Macalaure
Feanor of the Peredhil
Kuruharan
Brinniel
The Might
Meneltarmacil

What??

I don't understand why Volo rambles about rangers. It's a bit weird, and not in a positive way. On the other hand, his first angst seems quite unfeigned and kind of familiar...

A few words about our Seer:
Read post #317. It gives the feel that her Day3 dream was morm.
The other dreams can be Brinn, Might and/or Menel. I'm not decided which they could be.

I find it funny how differently we read her posts. I think other people should look at her posts as well and say what they think. Comparing the results would be interesting.

EDIT: xed with Miggy and Aggy

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, after what happened with morm I think I'll join in on that clothes-eating party mentioned yesterday.

*proceeds to eat his coat, scarf, shoes, and haalf of his whole wardrobe*

OK, one more time, I never said that mormegil was innocent. The one comment I made about being unsure also contained a statement that I would go analyze his posts and report my findings. I did the analysis because I wanted to make sure of what he was before deciding on a vote. Later, I posted my analysis showing him to be wolfish. I hope that makes sense.

However, I'm out of leads right now. Maybe some of morm's suspicions about Lommy were correct, maybe not, but I really am out of ideas right now.

Finally, I am not a werewolf, but I don't think there's anything I can do now to shake off suspicion, so if you really want to lynch me, go right ahead. It's not going to accomplish anything, since I am not a werewolf, though.

[Volo]

Thanks Lommy, (although it's hard to believe that you gathered all of that so soon.)

I don't think Kath Dreamed of Lily, there was no need for it at that time and I think her vote looks more like pure logic than a Seer's Dream.

And I can't think that she Dreamed of you, Lommy, either (although I'll feel happy if it was so, as I tossed a guess that you had been Dreamed of on Day1 or 2.). She would have mentioned you differently.

Her Night1 Dream is a mystery, Might jumps into my mind, but could she have been so obvious? Probably no. And although I'd Dream of a new player myself, I have doubts in whether Kath would do so - actually to flip-flop with my preveous though, she would probably have Dreamed of Lily rather than of Might.

Her obvious Night2 Dream would be Brinniel, but it feels too obvious.

I'm quite sure her Night3 Dream was morm.


Might and Brinn seem obvious, but could it be that the Wolves didn't kill her on Night2 and 3 because of fear for the Ranger - she was, after all, killed as soon as the Ranger was down.

Aargh, my head is going to explode, I should go to sleep...


EDIT: Xd with everything since my preveous post.

[The Might]

If I am a wolf, I promise to post a pic of me eating my socks after this is done.

No, but really now, I don't want to lose the game. By killing me you would waist the opportunity to kill a wolf.
I hope you will believe me, if not, then I guess I've earned it anyway because I was too newbish to listen...

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Lommy

What??

The first is what I felt straight after morm's and sally's deaths.
The second from just before toDay started. It still doesn't mean that I'll go far enough to trust anybody, except maybe Legate, but he's dead. :/

Originally Posted by Lommy

I don't understand why Volo rambles about rangers. It's a bit weird, and not in a positive way.

Because I'm annoyed? (Nothing personal at all morm, I just don't understand why you decided to keep it a secret through that situation...)

Originally Posted by Lommy

On the other hand, his first angst seems quite unfeigned and kind of familiar...

:O Oh... I mean, have I done that before?

Originally Posted by Lommy

I find it funny how differently we read her posts. I think other people should look at her posts as well and say what they think. Comparing the results would be interesting.

I agree! It wouldn't only be interesting, but also useful - probably.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Volo

Thanks Lommy, (although it's hard to believe that you gathered all of that so soon.)

Well, you have to remember Kath only made 10 posts in total...

Originally Posted by Volo

I don't think Kath Dreamed of Lily, there was no need for it at that time and I think her vote looks more like pure logic than a Seer's Dream.

A valid point, though I'm not sure I agree.

Originally Posted by Volo

Her Night1 Dream is a mystery, Might jumps into my mind, but could she have been so obvious? Probably no.

I agree. And I think she would have mentioned him again on Day3 if she had dreamt of him.

Originally Posted by Volo

Her obvious Night2 Dream would be Brinniel, but it feels too obvious.

I think the way she speculates about Brinn and morm seems like she hadn't dreamt of her... Remember she said she doubts morm is wolf unless Brinn is one too...

I think TM looks quite innocent. I mean, he's long past the point of wolvishness: he's too suspicious. No wolf in his right mind would play like that. Besides, he reminds me of my first game ever, when I was an ordo and about as silly as he's now, no offense.

And Aganzir could be lynched just for being so nasty.

Yesterday, when I posted my misguided theory, I realised it could be used for testing people's reactions as well. If you recall, I even asked what you thought of it. I think Menel's way of responding with a comment that it's very interesting and possibly credible (or something along those lines) looks quite fishy. I mean, it looks like a wolf smelling an opportunity.

edit: xed with Volo

[Aganzir]

To me it seems that Kath had dreamt of Lommy and morm and found both innocent.

Originally Posted by Kath

The fact that Lommy and morm had the same thing going yesterDay has me thinking they're both innocent, as the back and forth posts felt much as Rikae and Nerwen's did.

Because this looks such a fabricated reason to claim them both innocent.

About the third dream I have no idea. However, I doubt Kath would've specificly said she's not sure (like she said about Menel) if she was speaking of a dreamt wolf.

At the moment I think Brinn's much more probably a wolf than Menel.

Originally Posted by Lommy

And Aganzir could be lynched just for being so nasty.

Now I don't think that's a proper reason.

Off to sleep now.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I think the way she speculates about Brinn and morm seems like she hadn't dreamt of her... Remember she said she doubts morm is wolf unless Brinn is one too...

I think this means that she did dream about Brinn, and now this makes more sense to me. On Night1 she Dreamed of morm, as morm is a dangerous player. On Night2 she Dreamed of Brinn and found that she's Innocent.
The way she says "unless Brinniel turns out to be a wolf I doubt morm is one" I understand it that both players are of the same side. But then why would she put Brinn into the suspicious list, it feels like a contradiction to me and makes it impossible to find out whom she Dreamed of.

I think TM looks quite innocent. I mean, he's long past the point of wolvishness: he's too suspicious. No wolf in his right mind would play like that. Besides, he reminds me of my first game ever, when I was an ordo and about as silly as he's now, no offense.

If he's a Wolf, he's doing splendidly. But his last posts are indeed giving a genuine feel and I wouldn't accuse him too much because of the double-lynch. I admit that I'd have done that and Lommy seems to admit it too, don't you?
I do suspect him, but the double-lynch, as nasty as it was, doesn't tell us much about him. I'm talking nonsense - sometimes Might feels just so so Wolf-like, but so did Sally and there's a lot of similarities in their behavior. :/

I suspect Menel much more. And this -

Originally Posted by Kath

I can't explain it, he's just not fitting right to me.

- looks like she Dreamed about Menel, on Night3 - probably. So forget what I said in my preveous post about morm being Dreamed of on Night3.


I really really hope that these people will speak up:
Shastanis Althreduin
Macalaure
Feanor of the Peredhil
Kuruharan


EDIT Xd with Aganzir

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Because this looks such a fabricated reason to claim them both innocent.

Ha! Well found! I agree, although the part about Brinn still doesn't make sense to me.

Ok, I'll try to leave now - sorry for being confusing and changing my opinion often.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Volo

If he's a Wolf, he's doing splendidly. But his last posts are indeed giving a genuine feel and I wouldn't accuse him too much because of the double-lynch. I admit that I'd have done that and Lommy seems to admit it too, don't you?

No. I considered the possibility, but decided against it, as you might see frmo my late yesterDay posts. But, ironically, when I saw the results I was quite happy, ashamed and horrified that TM had the guts to do what I didn't dare to. The reason why I didn't dare to do it was because I did think it was possible (yet unprobable) I was wrong about them and I must admit I also ended up not trying to double-lynch Sally and morm because I saw it as a lost chance.

[Farael]

First of all

*Grabs ketchup, eats hat*

Sally what were you thinking? Even though you were speaking sense yesterDay, your previous behaviour made it sound as if you were a wolf afraid that they'd call your bluff and trying to back down... It's a shame that you were an ordo, but I stand by my vote... you really did seem wolfish.

And while we are questioning other people's thoughts [B}The Might[/B] what were you thinking?

If we were at an earlier stage of the game, I'd say we have to lynch him to clear the air... I mean, that double-lynch went against what most of the village wanted, at the least it was a selfish move. Right now, we can't afford to lose another ordo, and I still get the feeling he's just a confused ordo.

I wouldn't blame him, the wolves have been playing us like a fiddle.

Now on to the accusations.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Finally, I am not a werewolf, but I don't think there's anything I can do now to shake off suspicion, so if you really want to lynch me, go right ahead. It's not going to accomplish anything, since I am not a werewolf, though.

That right there reeks of wolfishness. I don't think there have been many strong accusations levelled at Menel yet, and even though they are sure to come, I think he started with this defence a bit too fast.

Originally Posted by Volo

Morm should have told us his role yesterDay. A lynched Ranger is one of the worst possible scenarios (only the lynching the Seer being worse).
I wouldn't have voted a person who declared himself the Ranger:
1. The person will probably be killed next Night (but that's better than lynching him).
2. The isn't killed during the Night, because the Wolves want to bluff and make us think that the person isn't the Ranger or the person wants to bluff and isn't the Ranger. I don't see any harm done this way. We don't lynch "the Ranger" unless another Ranger comes to claim the role or the real Ranger dies (or is Dreamed of). If a compeditor appeared we'd know that one of them is a Wolf - then we have to decide.

Well, first of all this train of thought is a waste of time... a) Morm's dead and b) he was most likely not around when the last votes were coming in. Keep in mind that he probably did not want to say his role unless it was completely necessary to.

That's another thing that concerns me about The Might... he came in right at the last minute and BAM! double-lynch. No good explanations other than "I feel I need to do this". The more I think of it, the more suspicious it seems, and yet it's amost "too easy".

And here's an interesting thought... with five votes to go, Morm was up by 2 (4-2) votes over Sally

Then:

Loomy votes for Sally, in agreement with Kuru who thought it was best to kill Sally than Morm

Brinniel votes for Menel. I don't think it was a good idea, as there was a clear risk of a double lynch... she should've voted either for Morm and try to put him out of reach, or [B}Sally[/B] and help those who wanted to get rid of her isntead. However, at that point there were still enough votes left to lynch Menel instead of the other two, so I don't think it was a wolfish move.


Aganzir votes for Sally and remarks it's a tie, asking others to vote.

Kuruharan votes for Sally

The Mgiht seals their fate with a double-lynch. He also starts apologising right away... that right there is making me lean towards Might being a wolf... if you believe that a double-lynch is a good idea (and you clearly do, since you caused it) why apologise profusely from the get-go? after all, should you be right, you could very well be the hero!

Looking at these last votes, I'd say that Loomy and Kuru seem honest... they were acting to lynch Sally instead of [B]Morm[/B}. Brinniel seems innocent too, but with an ill-fated vote for a third party. However, it wasn't a "throw away" vote, Menel had a chance of getting lynched. Immediately after that vote, Aganzir votes for Sally, setting up the double-lynch scenario. Kuru breaks the tie but Might ties it up again.

So I'd say that from there Might is possibly a wolf, Aganzir may be too, and trying to act to protect Menel by forcing the remaning voters to ignore Menel as an option or have a triple lynch.

I will probably be around on and off, but it's not guaranteed so I will cast my vote now to make sure I get it in.

While Menel looks worse by the minute, I just find Might's actions impossible to ignore, specially the fact that he started apologising as soon as he voted. He never once considered the possibility that he might nail down two wolves, which was likely since Sally and Morm had been under heavy fire for quite a while. That makes me think he knew that double lynch would be disastrous, and the only way he could've known is by being a wolf

++The Might

As a parting-shot, I'd like to hear some more from Fea

[Meneltarmacil]

I look more suspicious to you lately, Volo? Don't forget that you were right behind me when it came to suspecting mormegil.

[Brinniel]

Well, so far I have yet to eat clothes because for once I was right. Urgh...I'm still so angry over the events over yesterDay. Not only was morm innocent, but he was the ranger! And now we've lost the seer too...

I've been kicking myself over my vote yesterDay...I thought there were less people left to vote and for some reason I hoped that with a vote for Menel, people would less likely to want to risk a double-lynch in the chance it could turn into a triple-lynch. I don't know why I thought that...I was stupid and running late to class. But I also realise even if I did vote for one of the two lynchees, someone still could've turned it into a double lynch. So perhaps it wouldn't have made a difference. *sigh*

Moral of the Story: Double-lynches always turn into disaster. What did I tell you?

The Might is looking awfully bad I must say particularly with his vote.

If you want proof that I am not a wolf, then I shall vote for whoever is considered to be a wolf by most.

That doesn't really help much; it's just an excuse for a possible wolf to hide among a large group. But say, would you vote for yourself again if most consider you the wolf, Might?

While I'm still pretty upset with Might causing this double-lynch, I still can't be sure he's a wolf. Could just as easily be a poor misguided soul. And if he is, I'm sure the wolves are taking advantage of it.

I still won't change my mind since Day 2. Menel and Volo still look furriest to me. And the fact that morm agreed with me and so did Kath on Menel makes me feel even better about my suspicions.

I think Aganzir could possibly be our third wolf. Remember she caused a 3-3 tie in the votes before Kuru broke it.

I admit I haven't read everyone's posts toDay thoroughly, but I have to run to dinner before the cafe closes. There's still a lot I want to say, so I'll be back later.

[Kuruharan]

I’m not finding either The Might or Menel very convincing right now at all.

The Might seems more interested in saving his own skin than in finding other wolves.

Menel…well…he says this…

I look more suspicious to you lately, Volo? Don't forget that you were right behind me when it came to suspecting mormegil.

…that’s a bit tacky. It doesn’t sit well with me at all.

Since Kath spoke about Lommy in a favorable light a few times, I’ll take her word for it at least for awhile.

[Meneltarmacil]

Why are all the major "let's lynch morm" people from yesterDay suddenly going after me? Kuru, I'm especially surprised that you're attacking me just because I wanted to take a second look at mormegil, given that you seemed to rush headlong into suspecting morm. I'll admit I was worried about everyone going after me toDay, but why the former anti-morm crowd?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I always feel so overshadowed and I can never think of anything to say that someone else hasn't already said better.

The ones I am most suspicious of now (though, I was completely, totally wrong about morm):

Volo, for... well, I don't believe I ever explicitly stated a reason, and right now it's midnight and I don't have time to go back and look for it. I'll do it tomorrow, promise. I do believe I have something solid on him.

Brinn and Menel have already been talked about today. To be honest, they strike me as odd as well, but I can't find a single concrete thing about them. I don't know if both of them are wolves, though.

[Brinniel]

I wonder if the wolves actually killed Kath because they thought she was the seer. I honestly didn't see anything seerish about her before...and there were others who looked more seerish than her. She wasn't generally suspected, so that could be a reason why they chose her...

Who she could've dreamt of:

Night 1
My best guess is Lommy. She found her innocent all three Days and as a louder player, Lommy would be a good Night 1 choice.

Night 2
This is the one I'm struggling on; I think she either dreamt of Might or Green.

Might would seem like the obvious choice. After all, she voted for him the previous Day. And why not vote for your top suspect? If she did dream of him, then Might would be guilty because she never did drop her suspicions. But then, why did she not pursue him? Was she worried her seerishness would be too obvious to the wolves? Was it because Might wasn't heavily suspected the next two Days?

It's also possible she dreamt of Green since from the first post, she began suspecting her. Still, I'm not sure. Why would she dream of Green? Why would she keep Might on her most suspicious list for three Days and not dream him?

Night 3
I'm quite sure she dreamt of morm. Her thoughts on him changed overnight even when he was still a top suspect.

My guess is that she dreamt of Menel last Night. Too bad we won't ever know. Here's another thought: Why did she suspect Menel in the first place? Might was still higher on her suspicious list when she started to suspect Menel. She was the first to vote Menel; my guess is that she chose him because he was more likely to receive votes, and she knew how important it was to save morm.

I still would like to consider it a possibility Kath dreamt of Might. I think perhaps we should look at the connections between Green and Might, Green and Menel, and Might and Menel.

It's a shame both of our gifteds had to leave so early before deadline. I'm sure if morm knew for sure he couldn't be saved, he would've revealed. And if Kath were around, she probably would've revealed him too if she indeed dreamt of him.

[Brinniel]

Might and Green:

Every post where they mentioned one another.

Day 1

Originally Posted by Green

The Might does seem a little weird at the moment. Though I don't quite grasp the point of the "lynch the quiet ones" -attitude, his first post didn't necessarily strike me as suspicious. What comes to his latest post, however...

I don't know what to think about that. His defence does look very feeble to me, but then again that makes him seem pretty innocent if you see my point.

Originally Posted by Green

The Might's self-vote struck me as odd. I would say that it was more the behaviour of a frustrated innocent than of a plotting wolf.

Day 2

Originally Posted by Might

Anyway, about the first day, I think it was A Little Green that put it best, I simply wasn't in the mood of again being voted like in the last game only because I act a bit confused and maybe confusing.

Originally Posted by Might

Indeed I should refresh more often.
Well, guess I should vote now before it's too late.

++ Green

I must admit I'm going with the flow here, not necessarily a big suspicion of mine.

[Brinniel]

Green and Menel:

Day 2

Originally Posted by Green

Secondly, after reading carefully through the entire thread, I found Menel's continuous joking about not being eaten disturbing. Also, it seems to me that he's been overly careful in voicing his opinions. I find him quite suspicious.

Originally Posted by Green

Therefore, my vote today will most probably be Menel.

(remember, she did not vote for him, but Volo instead)

Originally Posted by Menel

I have now gone back and read the posts of A Little Green.

She strikes me as somebody who has failed to notice a couple of important things or is intentionally ignoring them.

First, she continually asks what is so suspicious about morm, despite the fact that reasons for suspicion have been given already. Second, she doesn't seem to understand why I'm being careful about voicing opinions and why I've made a couple of jokes about not being eaten.

The first point, as stated earlier, could indicate a morm-Green partnership.

The second part I will answer here. I am being careful with my opinions because stating every minor suspicion of mine early on in the game is the main reason my ancestors were lynched or eaten in those scenarios. This happened because said behavior was perceived as a way of pointing the innocent in the direction of the gallows. I've already addressed the jokes, so there is no need to repeat myself here.

Now I have also noticed morm making similar arguments against me based on the jokes. This agreement between him and Green is troubling.

As is the mysterious tendency for the two of them, along with a wolfish-looking Rikae to attack Lommy. I don't really know what to make of this issue, but perhaps somebody else might.

Something that must be pointed out about A Little Green: Both of my reasons for suspicion could easily result from inexperience. Number One could result from an unfamiliarity with mormegil's playing style while Number Two could happen to anyone who doesn't know about the frequency of lynches and wolf-killings in my history. Since A Little Green does seem to be kind of new here, I'm going to give her the benefit of the doubt for now and go with

++mormegil

[Brinniel]

Might and Menel:

Day 1

Originally Posted by Menel

As for The Might's self-vote, that does not mean much to me. I remember a fellow from the old days of WW by the name of Nilpaurion Felagund who used to vote for himself all the time, Wolf or no.

Day 4 (toDay)

Originally Posted by Might

As already said in the first post, if voting Menel or anyone else will help you believe me, then I am willing to.

[Brinniel]

Okay, sorry for flood posting again, but I found separating those out into separate posts is simply easier to read.

Anyways, looking at those quotes I think I might be onto something. It's funny how Might was viewed as so suspicious on Day 1 and after that, everyone seemed to forget about him (except for our dear seer). I must say Might has made many mistakes in this game (voting for himself, his safe vote for Green, causing a double-lynching, his seemingly heavy reliance on other people's posts). So far a lot of us overlooked it saying, "Oh, he's probably just a confused innocent and his mistakes are newbieish behaviour." I admit I've done it myself. But it's just as likely he's a newbie wolf making several mistakes despite the advice of his fellow mates.

I'm almost confident that there's at least one wolf among Might and Menel, if not two. If my calculations are correct, we have two more Days to lynch a wolf before we can lose (including toDay). I say we lynch one of these two toDay and the other toMorrow.

If I am wrong and neither of these guys turn out wolves, I will proceed in eating my socks.

Oh, and another thing. I'm beginning to doubt that Volo is actually furry, partly because Menel is putting pressure on him. If Menel is a wolf, then Volo is most likely innocent. Another reason I suspect him less is because I'm beginning to question Aganzir more and more. She's was slightly suspicious to me yesterDay, but since her vote and posts toDay (which I do hope she'll explain later), I'm thinking there's quite a good chance she could be the third wolf.

[Volo]

Volo suddenly goes very defencive... of Might.

Originally Posted by Farael

The Mgiht seals their fate with a double-lynch. He also starts apologising right away... that right there is making me lean towards Might being a wolf... if you believe that a double-lynch is a good idea (and you clearly do, since you caused it) why apologise profusely from the get-go? after all, should you be right, you could very well be the hero!

Innocents appologise just as often as the Wolves do, if not even more often.
I thought about what the Wolves win by causing a double-lynch like that and putting one of their own into such a position. They couldn't know morm was the Ranger, so I think that the deal would not be a good one for the Wolves.

Originally Posted by Might

Anyways, looking at those quotes I think I might be onto something. It's funny how Might was viewed as so suspicious on Day 1 and after that, everyone seemed to forget about him (except for our dear seer). I must say Might has made many mistakes in this game (voting for himself, his safe vote for Green, causing a double-lynching, his seemingly heavy reliance on other people's posts). So far a lot of us overlooked it saying, "Oh, he's probably just a confused innocent and his mistakes are newbieish behaviour." I admit I've done it myself. But it's just as likely he's a newbie wolf making several mistakes despite the advice of his fellow mates.

Now it looks like Sally's actions, and since I was so wrong with those, I wouldn't want to lynch another Innocent newbie for the same reasons.
The part about fellow mates giving advice seems to be a key point. Might's style of play didn't change a little bit from yesterDay to toDay, and I'm sure that if there was discussion between him and fellow Wolves, then he'd change his style and inevitably play "better".


Now I think that Kath Dreamed of Innocent Lommy and morm, as Aganzir mentioned in #449.
And Wolf Menel, like I mentioned in post #450.


I find one thing Mac said very disturbing:

Originally Posted by Mac, underlined by me

Volo, on the other hand, seems to be more serious with his suspicions against Lily. He didn't mention her on day one and then pursued her on day two. He gives her the almost deciding 4th vote. If a wolf tried to actively kill Lily, then Volo fits the description.

At first I thought that Brinn said that comment - and I'd have regarded it a reason to lynch her outright. Now in Mac's case I can't find an explanation to this being suspicious as Mac hasn't had Wolves as his main suspects (if Might isn't one). But to say something like that makes me feel that the Wolves discussed about at least one of them attacking the fellow Wolves strongly - if Mac is a Wolf, and he could be a flying-over-the-radar Wolf (which is wierd as it's Mac we're talking about). Do you think this is too far-fetched?


I have another question, about our wandering Dwarf friend Kuru. Anybody who's played with him before: Is he always so undecided? He seems like being aware of all the stuff happening here, but there is barely a post in which he's sure of what he's talking. I mean he talks a lot and gives his opinion about most things going around, but he nearly always puts a "but...", "on the other hand...", "looks too easy..." after his point and dissolves it by saying the very opposite. One can't be sure whom he suspects, and one can't even see what he thinks about people. Mostly he follows other people's trails and sweeps them around.


I'm late for a meeting, again. :/

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Brinn

I think Aganzir could possibly be our third wolf. Remember she caused a 3-3 tie in the votes before Kuru broke it.

Eh? I said I was going to vote for sally if there were enough others who would vote for her. Kuru and Might, who had said they would, were still to vote when I voted.
I really don't understand how you can see something wolfish in that.

Explanation for my suspicions coming soon.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Eh? I said I was going to vote for sally if there were enough others who would vote for her. Kuru and Might, who had said they would, were still to vote when I voted.

Okay, you do make a fair point. A bunch of people did say they were voting for her. And it doesn't help that Might outright lied about who he'd vote for. Though I wonder if you did see Might's post above yours before voting since you posted at the same time? I can only take your word on that.

The votes were swaying towards morm by two when there was a sudden switch to vote Sally. It was possible to lynch just Sally, but certainly a risky move, especially with all those cross-posts that happen in the last moments. I still feel like there's at least two wolves that helped set up the double lynch (Might and someone less obvious). I'm still uneasy about Aganzir, but now I'm also wondering about Kuru, who suddenly started talking about lynching Sally instead of morm soon after morm came into the lead. I don't know....I'm still very unsure about this.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Menel

I look more suspicious to you lately, Volo? Don't forget that you were right behind me when it came to suspecting mormegil.

That just sounds all too wolvish...

Originally Posted by Brinn

Moral of the Story: Double-lynches always turn into disaster.

Not necessarily... if you remember how Nogrod and Legate won Gil's game (for those who don't know, they were the seer and the ranger who knew each other and caused a double lynch to get rid of both the questionmark-people of which another proved to be a wolf), for example. But I do share your current pessimism of them. It will be a very difficult job to try to persuade me to see the point in one again during this game.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I always feel so overshadowed and I can never think of anything to say that someone else hasn't already said better.

Well, in your case at least, I wouldn't mind you restating those points. I'm very aware of how you're practically slipping under everybody's radar and that would be a very clever tactic for a wolf-Shasta, because you've always been quite quiet (so it doesn't look downright suspicious like it would if I, for example, started posting that little) and with going more quiet, you minimalize the risk of making a wolvish slip or leaving furry tracks.

I think Brinn looks relatively innocent right now, even though I have my doubts of her. Even though, if it would happen that neither Might nor Menel are wolves, I'd look at her very closely, she's making such a show of them.

Now I'm finally going to do the hard work and reread the thread. I'll be back with something to say, hopefully.

EDIT: xed with Brinn - I'm not sure if I agree with her about the double-lynch being a carefully orchestrated event

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I meant to read up and post after my night class and then didn't have a chance. And I've got to run now. I'll be back in ish-three hours, give or take, I think, and then I'll have time to do more than skim. I just saw a few "Where's Fea?"s and wanted to say "last week of classes."

Some quick thoughts (I'll try to explain more later):

They thought Kath was a seer. Everybody else acted like I suspected normal villagers to act. She was quieter in a way that I'm not used to from her unless she's trying to avoid negative attention. She's a gutsier wolf, so when I scanned the villagers for who might be leaving us clues (or trying not to at first)... Shoot. This isn't making as much sense as I'd like and I'm running late. Basically, I think she was viewed as a seer not because of what she had to say, but because of how she was saying it. And I think at least one of the wolves must have played with Kath enough to know her styles. Or they just got mad lucky.

Next: The Might, what's wrong with you?! (I know it's been said already. I just kind of needed to get that off my chest, since it was my reaction to yesterday and this is my first chance to say it.)

And: I'm confident Kath dreamed of morm. I'm less confident about other dreams. When I go back through posts when I'm out of class I'll be a lot more comfortable casting around my opinions.

Sorry to post and run...

[Aganzir]

I managed to destroy my post and don't have any idea how. Argh.

**

I think Brinniel and The Might are wolves.

Last Day Might found he had a chance to lynch two innocents and he did it.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think TM looks quite innocent. I mean, he's long past the point of wolvishness: he's too suspicious. No wolf in his right mind would play like that.I think TM looks quite innocent. I mean, he's long past the point of wolvishness: he's too suspicious. No wolf in his right mind would play like that.

And that might be the reason why he dares to act like that. If everybody thought he's too suspicious to be a wolf it'd be almost too easy for him to escape real suspicion. He could always say he's just a newbie and would not be so daring as a wolf.

Might has been acting quite suspiciously especially towards the Days' end. The following morning he's explained, apologised or whatever. I don't like that too much either. It looks almost too much like fellows have told him what to do.

Both Brinn and Might voted for Greenie. In the previous game Brinn couldn't decide whether to vote for fellow-Mac or innocent Might. She has obviously learnt something from that experience.
When Might voted, it didn't matter anymore, as Greenie was leading by several votes.

I get quite a bad feeling from Brinn's posts. Especially on her previous Days' posts look like she posts what she has decided to post, whether or not it has something to do with other posts. Or, the main contents of the posts is something she has beforehand decided to say. Ok, everybody does that, at least to some extent, but in Brinn's case it looks plainly wolfish. I'm not sure if this made sense, but I can't put it better. It just is looks wolfish.
And how Brinn has treated Might gives an impression of her speaking of a fellow wolf:

Originally Posted by Brinn #35

The Might's behaviour, starting with the "let's lynch a quiet person" attitude does make me a bit uneasy. Yet, I'm thinking this is more likely to be newbie behaviour than suspicious.

Originally Posted by Brinn #89

I'm not sure what to think of The Might now. Reading post #69, I became entirely suspicious of the "don't lynch me because I'm unique" argument. But then he went off and did a suicide vote...which makes me think he's now just giving up. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think a wolf would give up so easily like that...

Originally Posted by Brinn #96

Right now, it's a toss-up to me whether Might is a wolf. I don't want to put him out of the picture, but at the same time I don't want to vote for him toDay. If he's still looking odd toMorrow, I will certainly look more closely at him.

Originally Posted by Brinn #195

Now it is at these very first statements that causes the controversy. Yet, I find usually the one who starts controversy and grabs attention is innocent. I would almost rather look at those who continued this discussion past its expiration date for any wolvishness.

She makes a show of almost suspecting him. "There's something slightly disturbing but nothing serious yet..." And if Might is suspected, it'll be easy for her to quickly change opinions and be against him, like she's indeed done toDay.

Originally Posted by Might #363

Guess a double lynching is too risky as we don't know much yet, I hope that the Seer is doing a good job and might provide with some information soon.

This post disturbs me. It looks like Might was rushing the seer to reveal herself- and for what reason? I wonder.

**

By the way, if Shasta doesn't vote toDay he'll be modfired. And I think we cannot afford losing any extra players anymore.

[Kuruharan]

If Menel is a wolf, then Volo is most likely innocent.

I agree with this.

I think the best thing for the village to do right now is figure out which one of our suspect wolves is going to yield the most information when they are killed.

I think, at this point Menel’s death would be the most informative.

What are other people’s thoughts?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I think the best thing for the village to do right now is figure out which one of our suspect wolves is going to yield the most information when they are killed.

I think, at this point Menel’s death would be the most informative.

What are other people’s thoughts?

I'm still rereading and writing a longer post, but I'll pop up to comment. Right now I feel that Menel's or Miggy's death would be the most informative, but I'd prefer lynching Menel because he looks more wolvish.

[Brinniel]

I already know I will vote for either Menel or Might toDay.

And whatever one doesn't die toDay, I will most likely vote for toMorrow.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I already know I will vote for either Menel or Might toDay.

And whatever one doesn't die toDay, I will most likely vote for toMorrow.

That's kind of the way I'm leaning now...but I want to remain open to other possibilities.

Inflexibility isn't good.

[The Might]

I've had a bad day today, actually started with getting the wrong present for St. Nicholas' Day and from that point it just kept getting better and better.

So I am really not in the mood to analyse anything.

I hope you'll lynch Menel and not me, as that would really make my day.

Anyway, as I promised I'm going to vote to whoever seems to be most wolvish (so maybe you will believe me)

++ Menel

PS: "Into the West" is a great song when you feel sad

[Volo]

Aganzir, well found. I think it points more to Brinn's guilt than Might's. Just because it could be a bluff.

The thing most suspicious with Brinn is how she - to some extent - sided with morm.


I'm still at a meeting though it's turned a bit lazy, lucky that it's at an internet cafe.
I dislike such decisions like what has been made (voting or "voting" early.), but I must admit that I don't have much to add right now...

[The Might]

Sorry, didn't read all the replies before Brinniel, and my vote is gone.
But, if it happens that tomorrow I am still alive, then I shall vote for myself.

EDIT: cause the last sentence makes little sense, of course if I am the one considered to be the most wolvish one

[Kuruharan]

But, if it happens that tomorrow I am still alive, then I shall vote for myself.

*What?*

If you're innocent, like you say you are that would be the worst thing you could do.

[Macalaure]

Here are my thoughts on yesterday, I'll comment on today later.

Farael's attacks on Sally don't look good too me. He clearly focused too much on one victim. And Sally's strangeness made her a very easy victim, a victim which doesn't make you look bad if lynched innocently. Watch out for Farael more!

This is the same reason why I still think Menel is innocent. His accusations of morm were way too bold for a wolf.

Which brings me to the one who "stood right behind Menel" when morm was accused: Volo. Volo's 'long defensive post' incredibly rubs me the wrong way. Such a long self-defense 50 minutes before the deadline? Why were you more concerned about how you look to others than about figuring out who the wolves were - at that time? Also, his defenses itself don't convince me at all.

I also like morm's post #369, which points towards Volo and Kuru. Kuru's continued pointing out how strange Sally was looks quite suspicious in retrospect.

Lommy's long analyses are completely misled (except maybe where Fea is involved) as we know now, but also look very honest and genuine.

Brinn first voted for Menel and then said "Please no double lynchings! I'm begging you." This raises my eyebrow.

The Might is fishy and slippery. What I really don't like is that he apologises for causing the double lynch in the same post that he votes with. Even before he officially knew the result, he said: "if you feel the need to lynch me tomorrow because of it, do so". It doesn't get any more suspicious, I'm afraid.

I don't have anything to comment about Fea, and Aganzir. They appear innocentish to me at the moment. Does anybody have any idea about Shasta?

[Thinlómien]

Argh. I'm quite hopeless and tired and wouldn't really mind being dead so I wouldn't need to try to make anything of all of this confusing stuff and try to force my brain to think who's wolf and who's not. But, on the other hand, I really wouldn't like to die now after being this wrong about everyone. I mean, I would hardly be content with myself after a game in which I had seriously suspected one wolf and three innocents. So, no worries, I think I'm getting over this useless pessimism and trying to hunt some wolves.

Feelings based on a reread:

Aganzir - Seems both suspicious and genuine. I realised I really can't ever read her, which is quite depressing. I'm a bit worried that no one has really paid her much attention during the whole game. I think her posts seem slightly more Pinnocent than guilty, but I have a feeling she's (again) fooling me and laughing evilly. Argh, I really don't know.

Meneltarmacil - He said (in post #149): "However, the last Night's activities do cast doubt on a morm-wolf scenario, so caution is necessary. Mostly, I just wanted to talk here so as not to be too silent. Talking often is always a good idea." Which made me raise my eyebrows. Why on earth would someone think or act like that? His thinking seems a bit too formulaic to be innocent. I mean, he keeps making assuptions like "at least one Nerwen-voter was probably a wolf" and "there are probably 1-2 quiet wolves". I don't like it. Also, his tone seems occasionally unbelievably unsincere, like in post 158. On the other hand, since Sally was an innocent, his post 301 looks quite innocent to me. But I still suspect him.

Volo - I can't see what's so suspicious with him. I think he seems innocent.

Macalaure - One big ARGH. Could be anything. Seems genuine but has had wolvish suspicions. I really have no clue what he is and I'm a bit worried that he's slipping under my radar for it has never happened before. But, if I had to bet, I'd still say he's innocent. Anyway, Mac, please post more!

The Might - is plain confusing.

Feanor of the Peredhil - A real enigma. I think her interactions with Greenie and her defense of morm look slightly suspicious, though. Reading what she said about morm, I think it looks like she decided to defend morm quite forcefully, because she knew he was innocent and she'd look good for defending him. On the other hand, she doesn't feel particularly wolvish and I feel my suspicions of her are all too futile to be considered seriously even by myself.

Brinniel - Seems wolvish, after all. Her first post, like I've said numerous times before, looks like one of a wolf. She agrees with everybody all the time and keeps changing her opinions in a fishy way. All in all, her posts look like doing what is the most clever thing to do in each situation and thus quite ungenuine. Also, her analysis floods are all quite indecisive. She's more vocal than usually, though, and I find it slightly improbable she would be if she was a wolf: I mean, as a wolf, I - at least - find it more difficult to come up with anything to say. But she still seems suspicious to me.

Farael – He seems very genuine and innocentish to me. The only thing I'm worried about is that no one's suspecting him and if he was a wolf, he'd really pass unnoticed...

Shastanis Althreduin – See what I said about him just a while ago. I still think that way.

Kuruharan - I really can't read him. I only feel that it'd be comnvenient of a wolf to adopt such a 100% against double-lynchings attitude.

I'm just afraid I'm trying to make things more complicated than they are and that yesterDay's disaster has caused me to be too wary of my own feelings and points. I like neither of the facts. I'm just not sure if I can trust my own reasoning and I'm afraid simple solutions aren't the correct ones.

A few more things:

I think ALG would have suspected at least one fellow wolf of hers, which leads me to believe that either Menel or Volo is a wolf. And Menel looks more wolvish of the two.

I wondered about

Originally Posted by Fea

Kath – I know I should be terrified of you, but I'm not. Why? What are you doing differently? What am I doing differently? There's something wrong here! Just to be clear: I feel like I should be suspicious because I'm always suspicious of Kath just like (and because of the same game) how I'm suspicious all the time of morm. Just to be very clear: I really have no leanings on Kath. I'd like to see more posts from her, though.

and

Originally Posted by Fea

They thought Kath was a seer. Everybody else acted like I suspected normal villagers to act. She was quieter in a way that I'm not used to from her unless she's trying to avoid negative attention. She's a gutsier wolf, so when I scanned the villagers for who might be leaving us clues (or trying not to at first)... Shoot. This isn't making as much sense as I'd like and I'm running late. Basically, I think she was viewed as a seer not because of what she had to say, but because of how she was saying it. And I think at least one of the wolves must have played with Kath enough to know her styles. Or they just got mad lucky.

Usch. I really don't know what to think of this. First she notes Kath is being unnormal, then she says a wolf probably knew Kath's playing style and realised she was unnormal...

If Brinn and Menel are both wolves, hats off to them because they're doing a convincing job of looking wolvish but not looking like fellows. Brinn and Agan, on the other hand, could very well be fellows, based on the way how they interact. But Brinn and Menel, they're such enigmas. They both seem very wolvish but have innocent streaks of behaviour as well and they hardly can be both wolves. So, there's probably at least two wolves I've not paid enough attention to.

Please, Might, please stop being confusing and start talking more about your own suspicions. Otherwise my head is going to explode.

Lastly, I'd like to point out that the wolves are getting a bigger part of our village Day by Day. Soon they will be bold enough to form alliances and vote together or manipulate the village ruthlessly. We should be careful.

EDIT: xed with everything since my last post

[The Might]

I don't understand why I am confusing, Lommy.
I think that I explained myself as clear as I was able to.
I first suspected Greenie and voted for her.
Then I suspected Sally (actually that goes a bit earlier) and more or less morm. I was foolish enough to risk the double lynch and it turns out I was completely wrong.
Now I suspect those that opposed morm, and since Menel is considered by so many, well at least by quite some to be a wolf, I thought I should vote for him.

If there is anything confusing about this, then please tell me, and I will do my best to exaplain.