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Old 01-26-2013, 09:07 AM   #321
A Little Green
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As always tends to happen, the further the game progresses, the less sure I am about anyone. Anyhow -

Bane - I hope he shows up.

Boro - Looks bad. I'd prefer not to elaborate just yet.

Brinniel - Hm. I'd love a second look; she is somehow under my radar even though I think I've agreed or disagreed with a lot of what she's said (ie. she hasn't slipped by unnoticed).

Cop - Leaning innocent; I still don't think Pom would have voted for a fellow who was being suspected by quite a few others.

Gil - Can't say if his overdoing of his martyr act points more to innocence or to guilt, but I do remember something he said that struck me as a point a Wizer wouldn't make. Can't quote that sadly since I've no idea what and where it was!

Inziladun - As unreadable to me as ever and, consequently, someone I'd like a closer look at. He was a Pom-voter, though (the first, right?) which makes him look a little better.

Kath - Seems like a genuine, sharp, helpful Kath. Nothing that stood out as suspicious.

Loslote - Her Pom vote makes me lean innocent on her, and she's made some really sharp observations I'm not sure a Wizer would point out. Leaning good.

McCaber - Still leaning suspicious on this chap, but I'd like to reread him to make sure I'm not just getting fixated on a Day 1 idea.

Morsul - Gah. I found him really suspicious yesterDay, but toDay I'm no longer sure because his reaction to Rikae's self-vote looks very un-Wizer-like.

Nerwen - Her quick jump on Rikae's self-vote was odd, but I'm not sure a Wizard would do that. An easy vote, in a certain way, but also risky if Rikae was the Purseholder. Also, if the Wizers killed Volo because they thought he was the Seer, it makes Nerwen look pretty good. (Rikae: I don't know, I just see no other point for the Wizards killing Volo. Quite a few people suspected him and he was creating almost as much confusion alive as he does dead. So yes, I think they would have been bound to have had better options. Then again, them taking Volo for a Seer doesn't fit every piece of the puzzle either, so I don't know.)

Nogrod - Believe it or not, but I'm actually inclined to find him more innocent than not (unless the Volo kill was made to mess with our heads and incriminate Rikae, in which case Nog is an evil mastermind).

Rikae - Leaning towards finding her innocent at the moment; quite certainly not going to vote for her.

Sally - Looks pretty good for her Pom-vote, and has seemed innocentish otherwise too - not as nervous and jumpy as the average Salzard. (Then again, if she is a Wizard, she doesn't have much to be jumpy about given how everyone considers her innocent..)

Shasta - Come back, we miss you!


EDIT: x-ed with Boro
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:08 AM   #322
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Volo as "Seer"

Day 1

#3 - his tasting banter could be interpreted as Seer-ish. Interestingly, in retrospect his last line there looks as if it could be him leaving a Cobbler-hint.
#72 - defends Kath and says "currently no other interpretation but troll feels based enough to me". It's quite emphasised, so could easily be taken as evidence left by a Seer if Kath is innocent.
#126 - questions how genuine Rikae is in response to Brin's opinion. Says "Ok, now I'm clearly looking more closely at Rikae"...and that there's "still no special genuine vibe" there. If Rikae is a wolf, the wolves might well have been worried about this post.
#132 - unsure about Nerwen, thinks Pom feels more genuine, and McCaber more naughty.
#137 - now wants to save McCaber and is willing to vote Nerwen to do it. This could be suspicious to wizzards if Nerwen is a wizzard, possibly, but the defence of McCaber probably wouldn't.
#139 - votes Nerwen, and makes bandwagon statements.
#143 - corrects some mistakes, and says that I didn't ring any alarm bells with him.

In conclusion, if Day 1 contains anything that worried them, they might have assumed that he was the Seer based on:
- defence of Kath (in which case she's innocent)
- suspicion of Rikae (in which case she's a wizzard)
- defence of McCaber (in which case he's innocent)
- vote and reasoning for voting Nerwen (in which case she's a wizzard)
- possibly, his opinion of me in #143

Now to Day 2 to check if any of those become more likely or there is anything new. They might have attempted to kill him the first Day and been blocked by the Insomniac Troll, or might not.

Day 2

#205 - mild suspicion against me, notes Nerwen bringing attention to McCaber but says it is nothing incriminating and later says that Nerwen remains ambiguous. He continues fairly enthusiastically with suspicions about Rikae, specifically talking about how she might have strategically encouraged suspicion against me.

So far he seems to be continuing the Rikae suspicions just as on Day 1. This doesn't look great for Rikae so far, but there's still more to read about. Going by the info up to #205, there's a possibility that he could have been killed to encourage a Rikae lynch...but then, wouldn't they have killed Rikae overNight if that's what they wanted? Volo was under extreme suspicion and not a bad prediction to be lynched toDay. But if Rikae is a wizzard and they thought Volo had dreamt of her, they would have little choice but to kill Volo ASAP even if it might implicate her.

Now for #261 and Volo's big suspicions list.

He doesn't have enough info on: Shasta, Sally.
Considers some degree of innocent, however mild: Greenie, Bane, Kath (although thinks a possible Cobbler), Morsul.
Unclear statement on: Brin, Inzil, Loslote.

Boro - thinks something doesn't fit and he resembles wolf-Boro.
Coppermirror - thinks that Pom might have genuinely tried to save me, thus making me more suspicious, and that Pom thought her vote was a safe one for her to make.
Gil - thinks he resembles his wolf-self, and that Boro and Sally defended him strongly. Ends up unsure and giving Gil benefit of doubt.
McCaber - has had some thoughts about but currently thinks he doesn't ring alarm bells. This could be seen as in line with the previous Day.
Morsul - thinks is genuine and unlikely to be a wizer.
Nerwen - waffles about her a bit. Seems to be backtracking overall, but "I have a hard time getting a read on her, but I feel like I've lost my case" makes it sound odd.
Nogrod - is slightly wary of him.
Ozban - "I'm somewhat surprised he got voted, since I've missed his guiltiness."
Rikae - "growing more wary" of her, thinking of as Pom 2.

#264 - votes Ozban as Morsul "feels innocent".

Conclusions: the most obvious thread there is suspicion of Rikae. They might have thought that Rikae was the first dream, possibly the second. But on Day 1, there were also two people whom he seemed to defend: Kath and McCaber. (I could say me too, but he wavered a bit oddly about me on Day 2 despite continuing to use Rikae's suspicions of me as evidence against her.) It's by no means conclusive but it does merit a look at Rikae, especially to check on how she reacts to these accusations.

So on Day 2, how does he treat Kath and McCaber? More neutrally, but still not with much suspicion. His line about McCaber could possibly be interpreted as dreaming of him the previous Night.

He doesn't seem to think Ozban is looking guilty, but votes for him anyway to save Morsul, whom he thinks is innocent. If Morsul really is innocent, and Volo was also correct about one of his earlier opinions (probably on Kath, McCaber or Rikae) then he might be interpreted as having dreamed of him.

It's most likely that they thought he was the Seer, but the possibility of it being a confusion tactic still remains. As for whether killing Volo might save anyone, the only one that comes to mind is Morsul. At the end of yesterDay, Sally and Nog appeared to be theorising about a Morsul-Volo wizard pack, given Volo's defence of Morsul. If Morsul is a wizer, killing Volo would be a quick way to knock that line of thought on the head. Even so...it's hard to guess how much danger the wizers would have felt in from Sally and Nog's discussion.

Since I was writing this up, I deliberately didn't look too carefully at other people's analysis of Volo, so I'll go ahead and look at those posts now.

Edit: cross-posted with an unknown but large amount of posts. Last one I'd read was #293. Also edited for formatting.

Last edited by Coppermirror; 01-26-2013 at 09:13 AM.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:16 AM   #323
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
Boro - Looks bad. I'd prefer not to elaborate just yet.
That's interesting. Need to go find and drum up your reasons in my posts? Shouldn't be too hard this time, considering I haven't spammed the game with a plethora of posting. Might as well be out with this supposed elaboration already.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:16 AM   #324
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If she were a baddie, Rikae would have to rely on the idea that most players would believe her to be a suicidal innocent, which would be an awfully risky move. Anyone who self-votes is putting themselves at high risk of getting lynched, and if an evil Rikae were lynched, the ratio would be 13-2, making it extremely difficult for the remaining baddies to pull off a win, especially with three gifteds still alive. If an evil Rikae felt certain the increasing lynch would result in her lynch, it seems more likely she would false reveal than self-vote.

I don't know how likely she be the hunter either. This early in the game chances are she'd take down another innocent. And while odds are against it, it'd be particularly disastrous if she accidentally took out the ranger or seer.

EDIT: X-ed from Rikae on.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:36 AM   #325
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
I'm sorry for being unhelpful, guys. It was three am my time, and I wasn't thinking too clearly. All I saw was Nog going on one of his usual crusades, acting as though everything pointed toward his preconceived suspicion, and having dealt with those before I couldn't stomach the idea of doing so again.
It seemed to me pretty obvious that his case didn't make much sense; I've been a wolf enough times to know that it's rare you kill for a suspected seer, and when you have one that points to a wizard, that's a touchy situation, while a relatively quiet player who points seerishly to an innocent is gold.
And this has me wondering about you again, Rikae. I was coming around to thinking I'd jumped in much too fast with that vote, since everybody else seems to think it was "obviously" mere sarcasm. But what you are saying here... wolves rarely try for the Seer? They'd rather frame innocents than get the real Seer?

This. Is. Not. True. It just isn't.

In fact, I'll tell you what wolves usually do when they think they've found the Seer, and that Seer has fingered one of them. They jump in and kill that person, bus the unlucky wolf if they were right about the kill being the Seer and (often) claim it was all a frame-up if they were wrong. Standard tactics. You know this, I know this, everybody with any experience knows this. Why are you basing an argument on this?

Not that it makes much sense for a villain to do this either- perhaps even less. I am just truly bewildered.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:47 AM   #326
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Copper
Now we really have to wonder why they might have picked Volo. There's nothing obvious at first thought...One would usually guess they must have had reason to think he's the Seer, but bearing in mind that this is a big game with 3 remaining wizzards, there's always a possibility of it being some A-grade misdirection.

Volo had been under such a lot of suspicion yesterDay. I'd have expected them to leave him in as a potential lynch-ee toDay.
Aka. they thought it was more important for them to kill him than let him stay as a potential lynchee. So the idea they thought him the seer sounds most probable. And that’s why I concentrated on that aspect in the early hours of the Day.

Quote:
Originally Posted by McCaber
If the wizards thought he was a seer, it was probably because of his first fluffy post and something they saw in his lists. Maybe Morsul is in fact innocent and the wizards thought that only a seer would think that. Other than that, he looked really suspicious and probably would have gotten himself lynched a few days down the road. A really weird choice of wolf kill.
I don’t think Volo’s first post would have been what made the case for Volo to be picked as it would have been outrageously clumsy from the real seer. So I’m quite drawn to a conclusion there was something in his suspicions that over-rode the Wizards’ possible wariness about that first post (which still could have been the first reason they got the idea about Volo being the seer).

Nerwen: what I meant with the problem of two dreams on N2 was exactly that: that it would have been impossible for the seer to dream both you and Rikae on the same Night – and if one was to think the seer had dreamt of you both it looked more probable it was N2 than N1 (Volo changed his view on you Nerwen considerably after N2 but also went after Rikae much more strongly on D2 – the problem being that he wasn’t that forthcoming on D1 with Rikae). But my conclusions on that whole problem anyway was that I think of you Nerwen as more likely innocent and Rikae more likely a Wizard based on what the Wizards could have thought about you two in relation to Volo (if I didn’t make that clear enough).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel
Most votes went to Oz and Morsul. I wondering if maybe both these candidates were innocent. While I'm still not sure about Morsul, he hasn't struck me as particularly suspicious.
Exactly my thoughts (like I said already yesterDay). It felt like the wolves were leaning back and seeing the voting going the way they were comfortable with.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
Apparently I'm suspicious now because the wolves thought that Volo was a seer and he suspected me (did he? I didn't notice) - you'll find any reason to suspect me now that you've made up your mind to do so. Same old, same old.
Well no. Or a partial ”yes” for the first sentence (not a total acceptance as I’m not sure whether the Wizards thought of Volo as the seer – but it seems thus far the likeliest explanation). But other than that, I have not made up my mind (even if it’s close) – and I have no wish to find out reasons to help lynching a certain person just because… (and talking about you especially, well actually it would be very nice to play with you for a long time). But I wish to get the Wizards lynched, whoever they are, and thus far the scenario where they killed Volo because they thoguht him the seer looks the most believable – and the only person it seems to point seems to be you.

But yes, maybe I have not considered all the things or have missed something. I do look forwards to be corrected – and will change my mind immediately when shown why what I think is not plausible.


Rikae… Noooooooo!!!!
Not again, please. (referring to her self-vote, that is)

Okay. I need to go back preparing the dinner for us – and I’m seriously lagging behind (only gotten to where Rikae voted herself) so forgive me if I have been talkng about things that have been somehow radically changed by this time. Back later…
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Old 01-26-2013, 10:21 AM   #327
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Analysing Brinniel

As usual, not quoting everything as that would be insane. My comments in italics

DAY 1

Frustration with banter

Pom, McCaber, and Morsul get points for the effort of trying to post substance; hates Day 1s because they are the easiest for a wolf to hide in; says she doesn't object to banter in general but that it's a problem if it gets out of hand

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
So far I'm feeling good about Rikae. She seems the most genuine at least. Pom seems okay as well, for now.

I don't like Copper's vote because Boro has hardly said anything and I don't know how she can get a gut feeling about him based on those posts. I'd hold off on voting her toDay though, because I haven't played with Copper before and don't know her playing style.

Morsul votes Kath based on some weak cobbler suspicions. But wouldn't it be better to vote for a suspected wizard? But I'll let it pass, since in his defense there is so little to go on right now.

I don't like all of Sally's bantering, but then again it is Sally.

My vote toDay will be:

++Nerwen

While I don't feel terribly confident in my vote, she has displayed the most suspicious behavior to me so far. By suspicious, I refer to excessive bantering combined with picking up on comments that she could later use as reasons for an easy lynch (like Morsul's comment on Kath). I realize it's weak reasoning, but there's really not much else to go on and I do generally tend to be pretty wary about Nerwen anyway.
Not overly fond of this vote, but it was early on in the Day and quite little had happened, so I'm willing to give it a pass. Also, this makes me doubt that both Rikae and Brinn are wolves, as I don't think an otherwise careful Brinnard would cheerfully point to two of her three fellows as innocentish in a Day 1 post.

DAY 2

Comments on Nerwen's speculation of why Pom panicked after her vote; thinks the likeliest scenario is
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
[4]McCaber is innocent and Pom saw a chance to have it both ways, setting up a second line of suspicion against the other Cop voters. (Without really thinking it through.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
As for the Pom voters...

There were already multiple bandwagons against other players and it was only the first Day in a large village, so while I won't completely rule it out, I just don't find wolf-on-wolf votes all that likely. If there was, it'd more probable for it to be one of the earlier two votes. Sally and Shasta would have to be very bold to throw a packmate under the bus like that so early in the game.
Kind of obvious but makes sense.

Writes a list; I'm quoting it in full regardless of the length, sorry for that, but it seemed like the best choice.
Quote:
Nerwen: No vote (does she ever vote on Day 1?) YesterDay she fired back at Gil for his vote against her. While it was defensive, I think her reasoning behind it is justified. ToDay, I do like her contribution so far.

Morsul: Voted for Kath. His vote was early when there was little substance, so I won't hold it against him. When coming to conclusions, I find his logic rather odd, but I think it's really just his playing style which tells us nothing of his role.

Sally: Voted for Pom. Most of her posts are banter, which isn't helpful. But her late vote for Pom makes me inclined to think she's innocent.

McCaber: Voted for Copper. His vote actually didn't stand out as very suspicious to me. But I can see why some might be suspicious because he could've been seen as a baddie trying to get away with an easy vote against someone who was already gathering some attention for her poor reasoning behind her vote. Plus, I agree he voted a bit premature. Due to that statement Pom made after his vote, I think I'm leaning toward him being more innocent than not.

Gil: Voted for Nerwen. Okay, his vote had poor reasoning behind it and I can understand why others find it and his defensive behavior following suspicious. But like Morsul, his playing style does have a habit of looking suspicious regardless of his role.

Inzil: Voted for Pom. His vote might've been the safest, were he a baddie. But again, I think it less likely that there were wolf-on-wolf votes at this stage. And anyway, his behavior doesn't strike me as suspicious.

Nogrod: Voted for McCaber. His careful and non-committed suspicion of Pom is worrying. Based on his posts, it seemed to make more sense that he would vote for her. But then he votes for McCaber while at the same time agreeing that Pom was a good lynch choice. The only thing is that if he did believe the lynch had already been decided, I think it would be safer for a baddie to vote for a packmate. Unless an evil Nogrod truly thought another player would swoop in and vote McCaber and he could save Pom. While that was a possibility, Bane was the only non-voter around at the time, it looked like he was planning to vote Pom, which would've sealed the deal...all the more reason it'd be safer for a baddie to vote a packmate at that point. I'm not sure about Nogrod, but he's definitely one to watch.

Rikae: Voted for McCaber. Her reasoning behind her vote looks genuine to me. From her posts, I like that her opinions are formed by her own impressions. Meaning that she thinks for herself and her thoughts aren't at all influenced by others' opinions, which makes me feel good about her right now.

Volo: Voted for Nerwen. He says he's unsure about Nerwen and that McCaber is on the "naughty side," then later decides Nerwen's most suspicious (over McCaber and Pom) without a reason to explain why. While he might have tied her, it really didn't look like anyone else would vote her at this point. This could be a strategy for a baddie to not make a throwaway vote, but at the same time, avoid participating in a lynch that could be likely to occur. A bit suspicious to me.

Boromir: Voted for Copper. His thought process leading up to his vote seems quite reasonable to me. So far, I don't see any reason to suspect him.

Copper: Voted for Boromir. Would Pom vote for a fellow mate? It's always possible, but I do doubt it. So she's looking more likely to be innocent to me.

Oz: Voted for McCaber. He suspects Gil then votes McCaber out of nowhere (putting him in the lead). Suspicious.

Loslote: Voted for Pom. I don't see anything suspicious in her posts and her vote makes her look even less suspicious. I'm leaning towards probably innocent.

Bane: No vote. He was around less than ten minutes until deadline, then disappeared. Any reason why? His suspicion of Pom could speak in his favor, but then not actually following through with a vote does not. I'd like to hear from him.

Greenie: Voted for McCaber. I think she's the only McCaber voter who had some reservations about him from an earlier post (before his vote). Based on her reasoning and interactions with McCaber, her vote does look like an honest one to me. So far, I'm thinking she looks more on the innocent side.

Kath: No vote. Only posted banter. Some might try to read into it, but I don't think there's really anything to read into. But the question is...where did she go?

Shasta: Voted for Pom. He hardly posted, but his vote which put our baddie in the lead makes it seem unlikely that he isn't innocent.
What struck me was that she is being extremely careful, almost too diplomatic; there is a but in almost every paragraph. Might just be undecided ordo (I can symphatize with that!) but somehow the tone is measured rather than confused.

Says defensiveness isn't necessarily suspicious; forgot the cobbler when doing her list, agrees with the suggestion that Nog might be one.

Another list:
Quote:
Looking Innocentish
Sally
Rikae
Copper
Greenie
Shasta

Feeling Okay About
McCaber
Inzil
Loslote

Not Sure
Nerwen
Morsul
Gil
Boromir
Kath

Will Keep an Eye On
Nogrod
Bane

Looking Suspicious
Volo
Oz
This makes me feel better; not as noncommittal as the previous list.

Quote:
Looks like we won't be hearing anymore from Oz. Oz at least gives better reasoning for his vote toDay compared to yesterDay. Morsul does have some posts that look off, but then again it's not necessarily off behavior for Morsul. Morsul can make an easy vote for a baddie, but I can just as easily see an innocent being suspicious of him. Oz's vote doesn't make me any more or less suspicious of him.
Again a lot of buts here.

Nog looks better; explains her change of opinion about Nerwen:
Quote:
I certainly don't trust Nerwen, though at this point I no longer find her all that suspicious. Which is why I placed her in my "Not Sure" category.
Votes for Volo; still wary of Oz, but wants to hear more from him


DAY 3

Speculates about the Volo kill, doesn't really add anything new

Quote:
I was thinking in particular of the most innocent-looking voters (Sally and Shasta), who helped decide the lynch. If one was evil and they Night killed the other, the village might later wonder why the remaining one is still alive. It was just a thought; I'm not sure if that scenario would be likely.
I already speculated about this before; something rubs me the wrong way here, though at the same time it's a sensible point to make. Gah.
Quote:
If it were misdirection, it could potentially mean that things are the opposite of what they would be if the wizards did kill Volo thinking he was the seer. Of course, in the case that their purpose was to create general confusion, none of this could mean anything. And if the purpose of Volo's death was to distract us, it's so far working because we've discussed little besides his death. So maybe it's time to start looking back at yesterDay.
This seems a bit weird - speculating long about Volo's death, then saying it might be wiser to talk about something else.

Wonders whether Morsul and Oz weren't both innocent since she doesn't find Morsul all that suspicious

Thinks Morsul's ”innocent Cab” -comment is likely hypothetical and if it really is, would not be surprised to find a Wizer among those who pursued it; thinks Morsul's point against Lottie was indeed flimsy but not necessarily Wizard-like

Quote:
If I recall correctly, Rikae has pulled this whole self-vote thing before. I'm under the impression that this is most likely typical frustrated ordo Rikae behavior. I have trouble believing a Rikae-wolf would give up so quickly, especially considering the baddies aren't doing so well right now.

If I'm correct, then that makes me concerned about Nerwen who was very quick to jump on Rikae's so-called confession (which sounded more like sarcasm to me).
I agree with this, but it tells little about Brinn's alignment as long as we don't know Rikae's. I'd say that if Rikae is evil then Brinn looks bad too, but Rikae's innocence wouldn't tell us anything about Brinn. If that makes sense. Then again, that Day 1 post makes me think it unlikely that they are fellows, so I don't know what to think. Helpful, I know.


CONCLUSIONS?

What stood out to me was that Brinn is playing really careful. It could go either way - a Wizard playing it safe by being diplomatic and leaving both ends open, so to speak, or an innocent who sees something for and against each argument and thus has a hard time being of any opinion. Oh my. That latter option sounds like what I'm doing in this particular post, actually! Anyhow, I'm not sure this analysis helped me form an opinion on Brinn's alignment, but at least I have an idea what she's said and done, which can be counted as progress.

Sorry. Not my shrewdest day toDay.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro, Brinn, Nerwen, and Nog
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Old 01-26-2013, 10:29 AM   #328
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
That's interesting. Need to go find and drum up your reasons in my posts? Shouldn't be too hard this time, considering I haven't spammed the game with a plethora of posting. Might as well be out with this supposed elaboration already.
You should know me well enough by now to know you won't get me provoked into a fight by talking to me that way, so you might as well not. I have a reason not to talk about this right now, but I promise answers later. I hope that's OK with you.
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Old 01-26-2013, 10:36 AM   #329
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Rikae's retraction of a post(which may or may not be sarcastic, I certainly didn't read sarcasm I read a resigned wolf. Too much detail for it to be sarcastic.) is odd.

Now she's claiming to be a sucidal Ordo. I find that odd almost like confessing then saying Haha joking you guys! Also to say not the hunter, well... my reason for voting sort of goes in the chute.

I think Rikae is a wizard and just got so annoyed and stressed(Truly truly sorry for your loss) she in essence ragequit the game, but now having calmed down has tried to defend the post as dark humor.
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Old 01-26-2013, 10:36 AM   #330
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I'd really love a reread of McCaber (sorry for the lack of bolding, 'Downs or my laptop or both are messing up), will hopefully do that at some point. Dinner now, back later.
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Old 01-26-2013, 10:50 AM   #331
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Originally Posted by Nerwen View Post
And this has me wondering about you again, Rikae. I was coming around to thinking I'd jumped in much too fast with that vote, since everybody else seems to think it was "obviously" mere sarcasm. But what you are saying here... wolves rarely try for the Seer? They'd rather frame innocents than get the real Seer?

This. Is. Not. True. It just isn't.

In fact, I'll tell you what wolves usually do when they think they've found the Seer, and that Seer has fingered one of them. They jump in and kill that person, bus the unlucky wolf if they were right about the kill being the Seer and (often) claim it was all a frame-up if they were wrong. Standard tactics. You know this, I know this, everybody with any experience knows this. Why are you basing an argument on this?

Not that it makes much sense for a villain to do this either- perhaps even less. I am just truly bewildered.
Yes. The wolves rarely feel they have a good read on the seer, so they go for someone who is likely to leave no trail. You've been there and you know this.

I don't know how it is that I managed to miss the "extreme" suspicion toward Volo everyone speaks of, or indeed how I missed his "obvious" suspicion of me! But now Copper has come in and said everything Nog and Nerwen did, while claiming not to have read their posts. It must really be that glaringly obvious. Too bad it isn't true.
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Old 01-26-2013, 10:52 AM   #332
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"No trail" - or better yet, a false trail.

The only thing is, would Nog and/or Cop and/or Nerwen wizard be that obvious? Once I'm lynched, they're under scrutiny. Or won't they? Am I crazy? Does everyone really believe that every wolf-kill is of a suspected seer? Maybe I really know nothing about this game after all these years...
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Old 01-26-2013, 10:54 AM   #333
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Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark View Post
Rikae's retraction of a post(which may or may not be sarcastic, I certainly didn't read sarcasm I read a resigned wolf. Too much detail for it to be sarcastic.) is odd.

Now she's claiming to be a sucidal Ordo. I find that odd almost like confessing then saying Haha joking you guys! Also to say not the hunter, well... my reason for voting sort of goes in the chute.

I think Rikae is a wizard and just got so annoyed and stressed(Truly truly sorry for your loss) she in essence ragequit the game, but now having calmed down has tried to defend the post as dark humor.
Annoyed and stressed I am. Ragequit I did. The fact that people fail to see my sarcasm and fail to see how utterly ridiculous this certainty about Volo is has really killed my desire to be helpful all the more.
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Old 01-26-2013, 11:07 AM   #334
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Well, I'm off. Guess I won't be posting again, so once you have my role, please take a good look at these people who are so certain Volo was thought a seer, who behaved as though it was unquestionable etc. once it is clear that that isn't what they did at all.

Since I'm the only one in position to know that at this point, I can say what it was instead - almost certainly a framing attempt, and Copper's attempt to look like she's pushing the seer theory independently looks very bad to me. I think perhaps the wizards suspected him as the cobbler, even, and took the package he gift-wrapped for them. Of course wolves like to frame innocents and control the next day's lynch. Of course they do. Any experienced player knows that, and Nerwen is experienced. Of course they also go for seers when they think they spot one, but to behave as though this is the only way they choose kills is absurd.

Thanks, Greenie & Morsul for the condolences.

See you in the postgame discussion, everyone. Get smarter, please.
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Old 01-26-2013, 11:08 AM   #335
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
You should know me well enough by now to know you won't get me provoked into a fight by talking to me that way, so you might as well not. I have a reason not to talk about this right now, but I promise answers later. I hope that's OK with you.
I'll be waiting. I would just think you would know me well enough by now to know it's disingenuous to cast vague suspicions and leave a veiled hint you have good reasons but don't want to say them yet. That is you are clearly trying to project you know something about me, but have now twice said you don't want to right now.
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Old 01-26-2013, 11:09 AM   #336
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Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Annoyed and stressed I am. Ragequit I did. The fact that people fail to see my sarcasm and fail to see how utterly ridiculous this certainty about Volo is has really killed my desire to be helpful all the more.
What certainty about Volo? You mean the way that several people think the obvious or most likely possibility is that he was killed as a potential Seer candidate threatening a wizard? I can understand that you'd be really worried about being voted for, but...

If you're innocent, you need to bear in mind that even if we were to take that view as set in stone (which I don't think is true), there's no guarantee that you were the wizard they thought Volo had caught. He suspected others too, and thought that various other people were innocent.

So, if you're innocent, it's best to calm down and try to think of other avenues aside from ragequitting.

Edit: cross-posted since Rikae at #233.
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Old 01-26-2013, 11:12 AM   #337
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Yes. The wolves rarely feel they have a good read on the seer, so they go for someone who is likely to leave no trail. You've been there and you know this.
I've been there and I know nothing of the kind. When I'm a wolf I try to eliminate gifteds, or failing that, players who seem generally dangerous. Some wolves do favour no-trail kills-though not you, as I recall- but no wolf with any sense *doesn't* look for the Seer. Again, this is all common knowledge, and whatever you are I just can't understand your motivations in saying otherwise.

Quote:
I don't know how it is that I managed to miss the "extreme" suspicion toward Volo everyone speaks of, or indeed how I missed his "obvious" suspicion of me! But now Copper has come in and said everything Nog and Nerwen did, while claiming not to have read their posts. It must really be that glaringly obvious. Too bad it isn't true.
I on't know how you managed to miss all this either. And as I said- we were bound to speculate about the kill. That's just normal. You were completely overreacting.

EDIT: x'd since Rikae at #352.
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Old 01-26-2013, 11:19 AM   #338
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Well, I'm off. Guess I won't be posting again, so once you have my role, please take a good look at these people who are so certain Volo was thought a seer, who behaved as though it was unquestionable etc. once it is clear that that isn't what they did at all.

Since I'm the only one in position to know that at this point, I can say what it was instead - almost certainly a framing attempt, and Copper's attempt to look like she's pushing the seer theory independently looks very bad to me. I think perhaps the wizards suspected him as the cobbler, even, and took the package he gift-wrapped for them. Of course wolves like to frame innocents and control the next day's lynch. Of course they do. Any experienced player knows that, and Nerwen is experienced. Of course they also go for seers when they think they spot one, but to behave as though this is the only way they choose kills is absurd.
Sure would be- if I or anyone else had done this. This did not happen, Rikae.. For instance I initially said the evidence against you was "thin" and that it might all be a distraction/false trail. It's right there in my post analysing Volo.
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Old 01-26-2013, 11:20 AM   #339
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Ok, I'm still here and had to respond to this. You're twisting my words, Nerwen. I didn't say the wolves didn't look for the seer, I said they rarely choose the kill because they think it's a seer. I said they rarely "have" a good seer suspect, and yes, this is according to my experience. I've certainly never gone for a player because s/he was "dangerous". Dangerous how? A good player? A good player on the wrong trail is useful, and killing a good player on the right trail is dangerous. Dangerous because they are correct? See the latter statement. Heck, I've left suspected seers alive rather than legitimize their suspicions.

Either the wolves are being very, very bold today or this game isn't what it used to be.

Ok, now I really have to go.
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Old 01-26-2013, 11:22 AM   #340
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Oh, one more thing: it was Greenie who said it was the only explanation that makes sense.

Remember that.
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Old 01-26-2013, 11:30 AM   #341
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I am not twisting your words, Rikae. You are the one who seems to be responding to what you imagine people have said rather than what they've said- all this "certainty" about Volo, and everyone "believing every wolf-kill is of a suspected Seer". These are strawman arguments, pure and simple.

For the last time. Maybe the kill was meant to frame you. That is always possible, and I said it might be. All right. The rest of us- those who are innocent- can't know that. We're bound to speculate and put forward scenarios about why he might have been killed. As usual.

I mean- I thought Gil was paranoid!

EDIT: X'd with Rikae.
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Old 01-26-2013, 11:34 AM   #342
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Yes, sure. Greenie could indeed be a wolf framing you. I'm not ruling that out. I pretty much haven't ruled anything out at this point.
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Old 01-26-2013, 11:34 AM   #343
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Boro, I'd like some more info about your Day 1 vote. I can see why you didn't like my vote for you earlier, but I'd like to know why you chose to vote for me over the other candidates. Specifically, Pom.
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Old 01-26-2013, 11:56 AM   #344
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One more thing about Rikae- she can't logically claim that wolves often frame people *and* that they rarely try to kill the the Seer (and that everyone should know this). The whole business of framing someone depends on the assumption that the wolves will try to get the Seer if they can.

I'm sorry to keep harping on Rikae, but this sort of thing is bothering me more than her self-vote or even her possibly-in-quotation-marks confession.
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Old 01-26-2013, 12:05 PM   #345
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At this point, I highly doubt Rikae is a wizard. I don't think a wizard would act like this in this scenario. I think she's simply a stressed-out person who is frustrated and that frustration is clouding her judgement. Pure and simple. It's happened before, to a lot of people. At this point, I'd prefer to leave her alone - the current trend seems to be 'Provoke Rikae. Get into a tizzy over how confusing her responses are. Vote, rinse, repeat'. This is getting us nowhere, and the actual wizards are probably sitting back and laughing their pointy hats off at us.

So, then. Moving on: let's look at the votes from Days 1 and 2, combined.

Day 1

Cop--> Boro (1)
Morsul--> Kath (1)
Brinn--> Nerwen (1)
Gil--> Nerwen (2)
Cab--> Cop (1)
Pom--> Cop (2)
Rikae--> Cab (1)
Greenie--> Cab (2)
Zil--> Pom (1)
Ozban--> Cab (3)
Lottie--> Pom (2)
Boro--> Cop (3)
Volo--> Nerwen (3)
Sally--> Pom (3)
Shasta--> Pom (4)
Nog --> Cab (4)

Day 2

Nerwen -> Nog
Oz -> Morsul
McCaber -> Rikae
Brinn -> Volo
Lottie -> Morsul 2
Gil -> Volo 2
Rikae -> Oz
Zil -> Oz 2
Kath -> Morsul 3
Morsul -> Oz 3
Copper -> Oz 4
Volo -> Oz 5
Nog -> Morsul 4
Sally -> Morsul 5

Now, what I find immediately interesting is how little we find Nerwen in the thick of things. Day 1 she doesn't vote. Now, this isn't surprising because she usually doesn't vote on Day 1 - but couldn't she be using that as a way to avoid attention and avoiding a potentially incriminating vote? Day 2 she's the first person to vote, and she votes Nog - who was not all that widely suspected, and was often suspected only of being a cobbler, not a wizard at all. With that vote, she manages to not only stay out of the limelight, but also manages to make essentially a throw-away vote without making it obvious that that's what she did. Day 3, now. She's spend basically the entire Day mucking about with Rikae. She never gets anywhere - most of her posts say "she's not acting like a wizard, but she's not acting like an innocent either, hint hint!" and her early vote seems like her jumping on the opportunity presented for an easy vote. All in all, I'm not thrilled with Nerwen right now.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen
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Old 01-26-2013, 12:05 PM   #346
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Anyway, enough about Rikae.. The Greenie-Boro thing is quite interesting... though it's hard to say yet what it's all about...
EDIT: x'd with Lottie.
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Old 01-26-2013, 12:11 PM   #347
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Quote:
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One more thing about Rikae- she can't logically claim that wolves often frame people *and* that they rarely try to kill the the Seer (and that everyone should know this). The whole business of framing someone depends on the assumption that the wolves will try to get the Seer if they can.
Actually, I don't find that to be a logical fallacy. Of course the wizards want to kill the Seer - but what if they just don't have the information necessary to be confident about who the Seer is? Are they just going to kill whoever seems to be most confident in the guilt of one of the wizards? Of course not! That would be suicidal. At that point, the wizards would kill someone they don't think is Seer, simply because that benefits them most. Look at how toDay is working out. Say the wizards didn't think Volo was the Seer, and only killed him to frame Rikae. The wizards are getting a great deal out of this so far, aren't they? We haven't taken our attention off Rikae all Day, and now we've only got four hours to DL and we haven't got a single actual candidate for wizardry!

Of course, it's possible they did kill Volo for potential Seerness, and Rikae is a wizard. In this scenario, how well do you think it turned out for the wizards? They're down a cobbler and a wizard. Now tell me a wizard would never kill someone they didn't think was the Seer. It seems to me that following that policy is suicidal and stupid from the perspective of a wizard. I think Rikae had a good point, is too frustrated at the moment to really defend it, and is being bullied by you, a wizard, taking advantage of an easy kill.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen
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Old 01-26-2013, 12:13 PM   #348
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
At this point, I highly doubt Rikae is a wizard. I don't think a wizard would act like this in this scenario. I think she's simply a stressed-out person who is frustrated and that frustration is clouding her judgement. Pure and simple. It's happened before, to a lot of people. At this point, I'd prefer to leave her alone - the current trend seems to be 'Provoke Rikae. Get into a tizzy over how confusing her responses are. Vote, rinse, repeat'. This is getting us nowhere, and the actual wizards are probably sitting back and laughing their pointy hats off at us.
Very likely- but I have to tell you that I have in the past known her to do the emotional,"frustrated" business as a wolf. That's why I've been having trouble leaving this this alone- even though it is probably the case that she's just an innocent in a bad mood.

EDIT:x'd with Lottie.
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Old 01-26-2013, 12:17 PM   #349
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Lottie, it actually is a fallacy, and I don't think you're reading properly what I've said, or realising how much of a weird straw man case Rikae has been putting up. I would explain again, but it's very late here, I'm tired and feeling pretty frustrated myself after all this.
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Old 01-26-2013, 12:21 PM   #350
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Lottie, it actually is a fallacy, and I don't think you're reading properly what I've said, or realising how much of a weird straw man case Rikae has been putting up. I would explain again, but it's very late here, I'm tired and feeling pretty frustrated myself after all this.
No, see, you're not reading properly what Rikae is saying. From what I understand after reading through her posts quite thoroughly is that she's saying exactly what I was saying, but she was more frustrated and upset, and thus what she said could be misunderstood. She's not putting forward a straw-man argument. She's taking what she perceives to be unjustified suspicion of her and explaining why it isn't necessarily the case. She isn't saying the wizards don't look for the Seer - she's saying that's not the only factor in their kill choice. Big difference.
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Old 01-26-2013, 12:27 PM   #351
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So....I have myself a new toy, and toDay we're going to see how poorly/slowly I type on it.

I still say Morsul is a wolf, and that Volo tried to save him. I have no idea why they would have killed him though.

Rikae was oddly pushy about me having a look at Oz yesterDay, which I also find highly suspicious, especially given that we now know he's innocent.

I've read little to nothing of toDay's posts, but those were my feelings as of the beginning of toDay. I'll be back later-ish after I've eaten and actually read the entire thread.
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Old 01-26-2013, 12:31 PM   #352
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Back. Reading. So far it looks like a really weird situation.
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Old 01-26-2013, 12:39 PM   #353
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote
Actually, I don't find that to be a logical fallacy. Of course the wizards want to kill the Seer - but what if they just don't have the information necessary to be confident about who the Seer is? Are they just going to kill whoever seems to be most confident in the guilt of one of the wizards? Of course not! That would be suicidal. At that point, the wizards would kill someone they don't think is Seer, simply because that benefits them most. Look at how toDay is working out. Say the wizards didn't think Volo was the Seer, and only killed him to frame Rikae. The wizards are getting a great deal out of this so far, aren't they? We haven't taken our attention off Rikae all Day, and now we've only got four hours to DL and we haven't got a single actual candidate for wizardry!
Exactly what I was thinking. Nerwen's thinking is rather narrow minded. I remember from past experiences as a wolf that unless we had a really good feel on who might be the seer, we would go after either a no trace or someone who could potentially be dangerous (but whose death wouldn't incriminate us).

Now if this was unusual behavior from Rikae, it'd be one thing. But she's acted this way before, so I don't think there's any need to get so worked up over it.

I'm not sure what to think of Nerwen. I really don't like how she's acting toward Rikae, yet I've seen many times two players going at it both end up innocent. And the wizards will just eat that up because if one gets lynched and is revealed innocent, the other can be set up as a prime lynch candidate the following Day.
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Old 01-26-2013, 12:48 PM   #354
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So based on today's actions, Rikae looks better than she did, and Morsul looks worse. This seems like a frustrated innocent getting caught up in personal stress (speaking of, I really hope it gets better for you, Rikae), because I've seen her act like this in the past. In a tense, late game situation a wolfae might try a gambit like this, but there's just no gain now.

Morsul, on the other hand, looks like an opportunist wizard leaping on the chance to get an easy kill off.
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Old 01-26-2013, 12:53 PM   #355
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Arrrgh! I am approaching the "rage quit" stage. I never said all wolves will always target the Seer under all circumstances. I was responding to Rikae's contention that they so rarely do that there's something wrong with even looking at the kill from that angle. This is simply false.

I am getting tired of this whole thing. Maybe I look like I'm persecuting her, but it wasn't my intention and the fact is she has been quite unreasonable.

EDIT: x'd with McCaber.
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Old 01-26-2013, 12:54 PM   #356
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Rikae says "I'm a wolf."

Morsul votes Rikae

equals Morsul is Wizard.


And My logic is the confusing one?

Trust me I knew as soon as I saw Oz was innocent I figured I'd be right up on the chopping block. I didn't think it would be for voting someone openenly claiming to be a Wizard.
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Old 01-26-2013, 01:00 PM   #357
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark View Post
Rikae says "I'm a wolf."

Morsul votes Rikae

equals Morsul is Wizard.


And My logic is the confusing one?

Trust me I knew as soon as I saw Oz was innocent I figured I'd be right up on the chopping block. I didn't think it would be for voting someone openenly claiming to be a Wizard.
You did vote her after she'd said it was a joke, though.
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Old 01-26-2013, 01:02 PM   #358
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It was a hasty vote, Morsul. Considering there was discussion going on about the subject, you should've given your input, but held off on voting. Unless you weren't going to be around for the rest of the Day, which clearly you are.
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Old 01-26-2013, 01:13 PM   #359
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Less than three hours left, and I still don't feel like a strong lynch candidate has been brought forward. I'm going to have to go back through this thread and take a closer look.

Not everyone has shown up either. I don't believe we've heard from Kath or Gil. The prospect of Bane reappearing is starting to look bleak. And what's going on with Shasta? He's at risk for modfire too.
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Old 01-26-2013, 01:14 PM   #360
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You did vote her after she'd said it was a joke, though.
Unless "lynched by Poe's LAw" is a joke(which I don't get) No I didn't.
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