Tol-in-Gaurhoth LIV: The Council of Evil

[Strongbow]

Maybe I was just insAaAaAAane.

Oops.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Strongbow

Maybe I was just insAaAaAAane.

Oops.

Hehe. Silence, precious. The night ends in 25 minutes.

[Gollum the Great]

After a sleepless night spent mulling over the various issues, the Council gathered once again in the main hall. A terrible spectacle awaited them.

The chamber's one source of light, a huge iron lamp of sorts, hung in the centre of the room, over the table the Councilors sat at. And under this device, dangling from his own entrails, was Nogrod.

His eyes were burst from their orbits, his messy blood almost entirely coated him and the table, and his gaping jaw was smashed. And as the Council gazed incredulously at the gory spectacle a devil's voice laughed, but when they looked around they saw no one but themselves.


Luckily surviving:

Aganzir
Eonwe
Gwathagor
Isabellkya
Kath
Meneltarmacil
Sally
Shasta
Strongbow

Dead/gone:

Boro (inno)
Brinn (inno)
Ilya (inno)
Nogrod (inno)

[satansaloser2005]

Oh....my....

*looks at death list and lets her jaw drop to the floor*



(Back in a minute. Gonna do a quick vote tally, and I mean quick, as there weren't many votes.)

[Aganzir]

Just a quick post I'm at Lommy's.

Ack what's this thing. I'm not quite happy with two of the scariest loudmouths dying in a row (especially as Nog wasn't even around yesterday) and I can't see any reason why someone would want to kill them this early. In my opinion this would point at rather inexperienced (or quiet) wolves who want to get rid of the most dangerous players at first.

So did the bear still choose not to kill or do the wolves and the bear both get a kill every second night?

I find it alarming there's still two players who haven't posted (okay Shasta has net issues but just where's Izzy?).

However due to only one kill a night we're not that badly off now.

[satansaloser2005]

Votes from Day 1
Brinn-->Agan at 12:22pm
Eon-->Gwath at 3:48pm
Bowie-->Brinn at 4:50pm
Boro-->Izzy at 4:51pm
Agan-->Brinn at 4:57pm
Noggie-->Brinn at 5:00pm
Menel-->Agan at 5:06pm*
Ilya-->Brinn at 6:11pm*
Gwath-->Eon at 6:32pm*
Did not vote: Izzy, Kath, Sally, Shasta


Votes from Day 2
Sally-->Ilya at 2:24pm
Kath-->Agan at 4:31pm
Agan-->Ilya at 4:54pm
Bowie-->Ilya at 4:58pm
Ilya-->Sally at 4:58pm
Menel-->Gwath at 7:23pm*
Did not vote: Eon, Gwath, Izzy, Nog, Shasta

For those of you unfamiliar with my system, italicized villagers are known innocents and underlined villagers are known wolves, cobblers, bears, etc. Basically anyone bad.

*=vote did not count for some reason (e.g. past DL, improperly formatted, etc.)

Oh, and these are by my timezone, by the way. I'm too lazy to change them. The deadline for me is 5pm, so read the vote times accordingly.

EDIT: x'd with Miss Agan, and also added non-voters to my tally

[Aganzir]

I just realised (okay to be perfectly honest it was at least half Lommy's idea) the kills look like they were made not because of how the dead acted but what kind of reputation as players they have, what kind of impression someone gets about them when reading say old games or the grimoire, and suddenly Bowie jumps up on my suspicion list.

A newbie who's somewhat familiar to the game would just fit in there so nicely, especially if it was Shasta or Izzy who is the other wolf and he had to work alone for now.

Of course my theory is ruined if the kills are not made by the same team but apparently we can't know it.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I just realised (okay to be perfectly honest it was at least half Lommy's idea) the kills look like they were made not because of how the dead acted but what kind of reputation as players they have, what kind of impression someone gets about them when reading say old games or the grimoire, and suddenly Bowie jumps up on my suspicion list.

A newbie who's somewhat familiar to the game would just fit in there so nicely, especially if it was Shasta or Izzy who is the other wolf and he had to work alone for now.

Of course my theory is ruined if the kills are not made by the same team but apparently we can't know it.

It's possible. If you get rid of the most experienced players first, it would even out the playing field for, perhaps, a newer wolf team. I don't suppose Gollum would tell us if he handpicked or randomized the roles (and to be honest, I'd rather not know right now, as it would bias me a TON) but since Gollum is newer (at least to WW on here) it might have made sense for him to pick a couple newer players. At the same time, though, I'm not going to kill someone JUST because they're newer to the game and would fit the theory.

Why else would someone kill both Boro and Noggie, though? Perhaps an old opponent? As in, someone who is more experienced rather than less, and thus knows exactly how much of a threat those two can be. Still, though, I think someone's trying to make a statement by getting rid of the loudest players.

[Aganzir]

I'm not killing Bowie because of it but he's under more careful surveillance on my part from now on.

However I agree with you someone could be making a statement by killing off the loud players at first. Silent innocents have died first often enough. Not that there are much loud players around anymore though...

However I should probably start getting home soonish and let this poor creature whose computer I'm using sleep. See you in the morning.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm not killing Bowie because of it but he's under more careful surveillance on my part from now on.

However I agree with you someone could be making a statement by killing off the loud players at first. Silent innocents have died first often enough. Not that there are much loud players around anymore though...

However I should probably start getting home soonish and let this poor creature whose computer I'm using sleep. See you in the morning.

Heh. Night, love. Tell Lommie to have nice dreams involving lots of penguins.

[Strongbow]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I just realised (okay to be perfectly honest it was at least half Lommy's idea) the kills look like they were made not because of how the dead acted but what kind of reputation as players they have, what kind of impression someone gets about them when reading say old games or the grimoire, and suddenly Bowie jumps up on my suspicion list.

A newbie who's somewhat familiar to the game would just fit in there so nicely, especially if it was Shasta or Izzy who is the other wolf and he had to work alone for now.

Of course my theory is ruined if the kills are not made by the same team but apparently we can't know it.

If I were covered in fur, why would I be confused as to when Night ended? Tut tut. You would think, with the way I search for knowledge, that I'd know such a thing as a Wolf or Bear.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Strongbow

If I were covered in fur, why would I be confused as to when Night ended? Tut tut. You would think, with the way I search for knowledge, that I'd know such a thing as a Wolf or Bear.

Could be a bluff.

Alternatively, if you were a wolf/bear you would want to be SURE you knew when the Night ended. And of course, you asked who died, so we could assume that you knew it wasn't you, since you asked.


Not that I'm necessarily saying that, but I'm just pointing out that the defense of "I don't know what's going on. I can't be guilty!" won't work.


I want everyone to start talking, dang it!

[satansaloser2005]

Well, wolves, I hope you're happy. An hour and a half of nothing.

[Kath]

Seriously, 5 people didn't vote yesterDay? I could understand it on Day 1 as there was a lot of confusion over whether the game had started, myself included, but on Day 2 after an extra long Night to help people catch up ... that's just mad. Even Nog didn't vote and he's usually one of the keenest to be around at the deadline. Have we heard anything from Shasta and Izzy at all? I would like to hear from those who didn't vote yesterDay, whether it was due to RL busyness or something else it would be good to know at least.

I'm on my way to bed so I won't post much now but right now I'm liking the look of sally. She is actually being helpful I think rather than talking a lot and trying to look helpful.

I'll be back in the morning (RL) with some more thoughts.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Kath

Seriously, 5 people didn't vote yesterDay? I could understand it on Day 1 as there was a lot of confusion over whether the game had started, myself included, but on Day 2 after an extra long Night to help people catch up ... that's just mad. Even Nog didn't vote and he's usually one of the keenest to be around at the deadline. Have we heard anything from Shasta and Izzy at all? I would like to hear from those who didn't vote yesterDay, whether it was due to RL busyness or something else it would be good to know at least.

I'm on my way to bed so I won't post much now but right now I'm liking the look of sally. She is actually being helpful I think rather than talking a lot and trying to look helpful.

I'll be back in the morning (RL) with some more thoughts.

....So I'm alone again?


Fabulous.

I think Shasta's internet's been funny the last couple days, but I don't know about the rest. I just wish people would talk.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hey guys.

I'd have posted this in the admin thread, but then I thought "Hey, it's Day, technically I'm still alive, so I'm allowed."

Anyway, the long and short of the deal is that internet at my house is extremely sporadic right now (I get, perhaps, five minutes a day if that) and it will continue until we get someone out here to fix it (which will be Monday at the very earliest). So, here's the thing. I realize I haven't been participating. If you think I should bow out and ask Gollum to modkill me, that's cool. If you're fine with me sticking around like Gil sort of did last game, that's fine too. I'm cool with either option.

Tell me what you think (of course, I can't guarantee I'll be able to read it until tomorrow).

[Gwathagor]

I'm sorry I missed yesterDay. I was out skiing.

There isn't a lot of discussion to work with yet toDay, so I'll just do some solo pondering.

I have the same question as Aganzir: why has there only been one kill per night thus far? I can think of only a couple different possibilities. Either the wolves or the werebear might be waiting to let the other party flush out the hunter - this seems more likely to be a werebear tactic, since time is on its side, whereas the wolves really have to kill as much as possible if they are going to win - particularly since there's only two of them. It's also possible that the werebear (I find it very unlikely that BOTH wolves could have forgotten their kill BOTH Nights in a row - at least one of them would surely be around to send in a kill choice to the mod) might have skipped its kills as a misdirection or through neglect. This makes the most sense to me. The bear is probably either someone like Shasta or Isabellkya, who I believe are the low posters so far, or someone trying to make us think it's Shasta or Isabellkya.

If this wasn't helpful to you, sorry. It was helpful to me.

[Meneltarmacil]

OK, so the traitors have killed Nogrod and Boromir88 thus far, which brings me to an interesting conclusion.

We have somebody who knows which innocents are troublesome and which aren't. Someone intelligent and experienced is probably working against us, driving us into confusion by hitting our best and brightest.

With this information, I find Kath to be the most capable of carrying this sort of plan out. She's been around many werewolf-plagued villages here and is likely familiar with people's playing styles. I don't have the time for it now, but later toDay I will look through her posts and put up an analysis of her behavior.

[Aganzir]

What about lynching sally today?

I think it might be worth a try, and even if she's innocent, we can afford it. I got this inexplicable bad feeling about her yesterDay when she started posting, and it just got worse in the Night. The way she was somehow controlling the discussion... A certain determination.

Shasta I'm fine with you playing.

Gwath, it's also possible that they take turns in killing but somehow the kills make me doubt it because it would mean there are three players who are fine with killing the loudmouths at first.

Menel, the killers needn't necessarily be experienced to kill off Boro and Nog. It's enough that they know even a little about everyone as players, which I suppose everyone does.

[Kath]

Is there any particular reason you would want to lynch sally apart from a bad feeling Agan? Because I'm getting pretty much the opposite feel on her so I'd like to know where your suspicion of her has come from.

Menel, I think your argument about someone with experience killing the wolves is a good one but I wonder how you ended up with me as a wolf when people like sally, Agan, Gwath and Shasta are also around and know the players just as well.

[Aganzir]

And there's also Eönwë who has played with probably all of us, and Bowie who hasn't played but gives the impression of being aware of what kind of players we are. And Izzy but I doubt she'd come to post a kill yet not be here in the day.

Kath it's mostly just a bad feeling about sally, but an exceptionally strong one, and I find it hard to concentrate on anyone else properly as long as sally is alive.

(Ooh by the way, lovely avvie sally. <3)

Okay I try to elaborate.

It's somehow the way sally was so keen on analysing Boro's death, and later also Nog's. Anyone could have done it; 'X would have had this reason to kill him but then again there's also this aspect...'

Originally Posted by sally

Point is, either Boro's death was random, a bluff, or a deliberate kill because of how Boro plays. Great. That tells us nothing.

And her resolution. I know she's one of the few who are being loud but still, it looks weird.

Garr I just don't know. Something in her feels wrong but I can't put my finger on it, just can't.

[satansaloser2005]

Well, sweetie, there's not terrible lots to talk about.


I just can't do anything right in these games, can I?

[Aganzir]

Sally you do, I just can't help this. It's irrational.

And with loud players dying one by one I'm not sure how much I like the idea of lynching you... However right now I feel you're my best bet.

Sorry I haven't been posting anything but currently my post count is almost twice that of anyone else's and I don't have the energy to go through the thread once again.

[satansaloser2005]

Heh. Obviously I must not, or else I wouldn't get suspected all the time. I honestly don't mind people suspecting me -really, I don't, it's part of the game- but I don't like that I'm usually suspected for no reason. Either I'm too useless or I run my gob too much. Either way I'm screwed. Bah, when life gives you lemons....you analyze werewolves!


Shasta, I'd hate to see you withdraw, especially since you're not being able to play at the moment is beyond your control. If you feel that it would be better for you to leave the game, then do so, but barring that I look forward to playing with you again when your internet connection's fixed. (Assuming we're both still alive, of course. )



I don't really have much of a main suspect toDay, sadly. Agan doesn't strike me as too off and Kath, though quiet like everyone else, isn't screaming 'WOLF!' to me either. And I'd hate to kill Bowie just to try to validate a theory.



I need to get ready for church. I'll come back to my thoughts later.

[Eönwë]

Sorry about not being here properly yesterDay. My internet died while I did have time, and then I had to go due to family-RL stuff.

I'll look at the posts so far... (not very many since I last posted, it seems)

[Kath]

I understand those inexplainable feelings Agan and it is difficult to concentrate on others when you have those bad feelings, but even if sally is a wolf she is only one of two. Given that I don't think she's a wolf it would make me feel better about you if you could maybe look at some other people, or even how others have interacted with sally to try and find evidence for her possible wolvishness that way. I'm sorry I don't meant to throw instructions at you but like you said you are one of our remaining loud players and we need you!

I missed Gwath's post earlier and reading it through just now it does seem a little odd. I agree that if either the wolves or the bear is actually failing to kill then it is more likely to be the bear as I doubt both wolves are missing in action. However, from what I know of the werebear role it has the choice of whether to kill or not so I don't think that the lack of kills on that front point to an absent player. In addition I would actually think that the bear is an experienced player who actually wants to win as the bear. A lot of the time evil creatures get caught in these games via the Nightly kills, an experienced player would know that and might be letting the wolves do all the work in the hope that they get caught and then the bear can just walk off with the victory.

[Strongbow]

Well, here's my piece (and my 100th post!):

I am suspect because I know how people act, and I said I was suspicious of Boro early on, which leads some to believe that my partner might be one of our absentees. Well, to prove my innocence, I'm willing to vote for myself in the event that more suspicion falls on me. Wolf gambit? You decide. If I do end up being lynched, please write me a good suicide scene Gollum.

Before I move on, I'd like to say that in my experience, the posting fillerish things without contributing to discussion is a tactic used by the enemy, to say "Oh! I'm active, don't kill me! I'm active, so I must be innocent!" Because of the general lack of substance, I can't tell if this is just being idle, or being sinister. I do not post just for the sake of posting. I post to make serious analysis. If this reduces my overall post count, so be it.

Agan, in her last post, tries to validate herself by saying that she has double everyone else's posts, when I feel that a few of those are not entirely necessary. This being said, I'm not feeling with overt strength that she's furry, but I'm not neglecting the possibility.

Sally isn't very much better. I don't really see the use in posting vote counts at this stage, because of the general lack of votes. I can't be sure if it's a ploy to legitimize yourself, but I'm not going to point any fingers until I see more...anything, really.

Gwath's post doesn't add anything very earth shattering, and doesn't really pique my curiosity.

Kath is starting to get reception, but I can't get a reading.

Menel, are you there? You post little, and when you do, it isn't much. Hmmm...

Eonwe is my kin, but isn't saying anything worthy of note. Yet.

Isabell and Shasta are obviously off our radar.

Edited for format.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Strongbow

Well, here's my piece (and my 100th post!):

I am suspect because I know how people act, and I said I was suspicious of Boro early on, which leads some to believe that my partner might be one of our absentees. Well, to prove my innocence, I'm willing to vote for myself in the event that more suspicion falls on me. Wolf gambit? You decide.

Aah I hate stuff like this, because it forces other players to take you on faith. In no way does it "prove" your innocence and I'm pretty sure that even in a game like this, where nothing is certain, you could come up with more substantial evidence or support of your innocence.

[Strongbow]

Sure it does. If I am dead, my alignment is revealed.

[Gwathagor]

And at which point, the firm proof of your alignment will be of no use to you in your efforts to establish your innocence.

[Strongbow]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

And at which point, the firm proof of your alignment will be of no use to you in your efforts to establish your innocence.

And you realize your mistake in killing me in the first place. I think it very poor taste not to take my threat seriously.

As you said, nothing is certain, and it is virtually impossible for anyone to prove their innocence.

Edit: Except in death, my friend.

[Meneltarmacil]

I've gone through Kath's posts, sparse as they are. The only one of substance was near the end of Day 2, and aside for some strangeness in backing me on my misguided ideas about Aganzir, I can't find anything that jumps out as suspicious. She does have a good point toDay about other experienced parties; I'd forgotten just how long they'd been around due to my long absence.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Strongbow

And you realize your mistake in killing me in the first place. I think it very poor taste not to take my threat seriously.

As you said, nothing is certain, and it is virtually impossible for anyone to prove their innocence.

If I did not take your threat seriously, I would have paid it no attention. It is indeed impossible to prove anything absolutely, but it is possible to establish varying levels of likelihood. This is preferable to gambling, and asking players to take you on faith isn't really very expedient, particularly if you are just going to kill yourself when they don't believe you. In that situation, nobody wins.

[Strongbow]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

If I did not take your threat seriously, I would have paid it no attention. It is indeed impossible to prove anything absolutely, but it is possible to establish varying levels of likelihood. This is preferable to gambling, and asking players to take you on faith isn't really very expedient, particularly if you are just going to kill yourself when they don't believe you. In that situation, nobody wins.

Except the werewolves.

I'd like to call your attention to something: all you did was say that the idea is silly...however, you did not outright tell me not to do it. I'd like to know: why?

[Eönwë]

There isn't really much I can say about other people, as I'm feeling the same way about most of them. Just two things to note:

-Aganzir- She was starting to look more suspicious in my mind, but if she really is seriously considering voting Sally then I think she's innocent, as she will be only loud player left (other than Strongbow), and people will start looking at her more closely (there's not really much of a choice).

-The Gwath-Strongbow thing. I assume it was just because Gwathagor was the only one there at the time. And because we have such quiet days, people are just picking (pecking probably fits it better) at any little thing others have said until it starts getting a little violent. And then they suddenly stop. So I'm not suspecting any of you much more, but Gwathagor stays where is on my suspicion list and Strongbow goes down two- I'm looking at you more carefully now.

edit: I do think Gwath has a point, though- he just overreacted a little.

Just clarifying and fixing spelling mistakes

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by sally

I honestly don't mind people suspecting me -really, I don't, it's part of the game- but I don't like that I'm usually suspected for no reason.

Trust me I know the feeling.

Kath, I don't know why but I think sally reminds me more of a bear than a wolf... And I know I should go find some evidence but it's difficult because this is so irrational. Well let's see what I can do while I'm here.

Bowie it was just a theory. If you're ready to vote yourself because of it, you're overreacting.

Also, since your comment about players saying they're active ie innocent was quite clearly directed to me, I ask you to point out where I've used my activity as an argument for my innocence. I have used it as an argument for not bothering to post but that's all. Certainly not everybody but too many are so quiet it feels a bit frustrating to sit online the whole day.

In my experience here on the Downs posting much nonsense doesn't help give an active impression. It requires some actual substance.

Also, for one posting only serious analysis you have surprisingly many two-liners, Bowie. I don't like being accused of posting not entirely necessary posts by someone who isn't that much better off himself.

In sally's defence I must say she always posts the vote counts. They can be useful if someone bothers to take a look, or then not.

I agree with Gwath about Bowie's threat. We have two options: either to take your word on it and trust in your innocence, or actually lynch you to check. If you don't have that much suspicion against you it's not very likely we bothered to lynch you yet. So no I'm not taking your threat seriously. You could be bluffing very very easily.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Strongbow

I'd like to call your attention to something: all you did was say that the idea is silly...however, you did not outright tell me not to do it. I'd like to know: why?

I did tell you that I thought you could produce some better evidence of your innocence if you tried. That ought to suffice.

[Aganzir]

Why should Gwath have told you not to do it?

[Strongbow]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Trust me I know the feeling.

Kath, I don't know why but I think sally reminds me more of a bear than a wolf... And I know I should go find some evidence but it's difficult because this is so irrational. Well let's see what I can do while I'm here.

Bowie it was just a theory. If you're ready to vote yourself because of it, you're overreacting.

Also, since your comment about players saying they're active ie innocent was quite clearly directed to me, I ask you to point out where I've used my activity as an argument for my innocence. I have used it as an argument for not bothering to post but that's all. Certainly not everybody but too many are so quiet it feels a bit frustrating to sit online the whole day.

In my experience here on the Downs posting much nonsense doesn't help give an active impression. It requires some actual substance.

Also, for one posting only serious analysis you have surprisingly many two-liners, Bowie. I don't like being accused of posting not entirely necessary posts by someone who isn't that much better off himself.

I overreact because I am absolutely innocent. I am aggressive because I am absolutely innocent. I will continue to be aggressive and will continue to overeact until I am lynched or nightkilled. I am not going to pull any punches when it comes to suspicion towards me.

The "active therefore innocent" comment is not directed at you, and I'm sorry that it came out that way. It is me merely being purist about that sort of thing. (Where I first played mafia, you couldn't wish the mod a happy birthday without being accused of lurking and being in the mafia. In fact, I was lynched once because of it.) If I stepped on your toes, Agan, I'll put Band-Aids on them myself.


x'd with Gwath and Agan

[Aganzir]

GUILTY
sally. I'm so sorry dear, I can't help this.

INNOCENT
Gwath is the one I'm actually feeling the best about for the time being.
Eönwë is the other one. I'm not quite as sure as with Gwath but I find no reason to be worried about him either.
Menel looks rather innocent again now that the flip flopping issue was cleared.

NEITHER
Kath. I seem to disagree with her on so many things I can't trust her but I'm not willing label her as Guilty yet, though. I might want to check her posts later.
Bowie. Earlier he seemed innocent enough but I don't know anymore. He's somehow a bit jumpy to defend himself, and his last suggestion to vote himself really looked overreactive to me. I don't know how much I should put down on his relative newness but he's one I might consider voting for later on.
Shasta. I have nothing against keeping him alive. However if your net doesn't get fixed soon is there any chance you could use computer in, say, a public library?
Izzy. Dunno what should be done with her. If she's not the bear, is there any chance the bear would want to be nice and just kill her off, at least if there's no way we could get a word to her? I suppose our hunter is normal in the way s/he doesn't have any special killing abilities unless s/he's attacked?

edit: xed with Bowie