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Old 05-19-2006, 02:17 AM   #641
Nilpaurion Felagund
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Sting I'm really sorry, Sarah.

Quote:
I'm not getting this impression from our illustrious former Seer. (Diamond)
Ugh, I feel so light-headed.

Sorry if I misunderstood y'all. The impression I had is, you'd still vote for whomever you suspect, even ignoring the plan. From your posts I thought I saw a willingness to go over the Good Wizard's head.

If I was wrong, well . . . I'm really sorry for that. Well, I'll be dead enedwaith. So at least Gurthang's attack dog ( ) will be gone the next DAY.

So, depending on whether Gurthang's timezone situation can allow it, tomorrow we (or rather you):

a) Form a case against someone you suspect (well, for just one or for as many as you can? I'll let my scion/superior decide);
b) Decide which case can hold the most water;
c) Let Gurthang see your case (and subsequent discussion) and decide from that the list of death.

Plan okay with everyone?
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Old 05-19-2006, 02:56 AM   #642
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I am also sorry

I said I would apologise if I was wrong about Loki and I was - so I do.
Sorry, Lynched Loki.
Now for some closer reading....
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Old 05-19-2006, 03:42 AM   #643
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First off, I'll state the fairly obvious and say the Hunter should stay well hidden for now.
Secondly, I had formulated a plan myself that was more or less like the one Nilp just sketched out up there *points.* So I obviously agree with you, Nilp. This plan should also make our individualists happy, as well, we all a chance get to shape the village's destiny. I hope there'll be time for Gurth to draw up tomorrow's shortlist. If not, then maybe you could do it, Nilp, before nightfall.

Gurth, I *knew* there was something different about you. I thought it was something bad different. I thoroughly approve of your suggestion of looking at the list of who the EW picked to do what. It might tell us something. We should also bear in mind that the wolves - and presumably the EW as he would have approved the kills - wanted you dead last night. Why?
Did you say something, or was it a similar case to what I believe led to Cailin's death - that most thought her innocent? On the other hand, given the fact that most people trusted Cailin, why didn't the EW make her a wolf? So did Cailin say something, too? What players might the EW have made into wolves last night?

As for the lynch-list, I'm currently inclined to vote Valier. No offence, Valier, in fact quite the contrary. So much has been said about your wolf-spotting instincts, I suspect that the EW would rather have you inside the tent than out.
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Old 05-19-2006, 03:58 AM   #644
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Sting I'll pass.

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I hope there'll be time for Gurth to draw up tomorrow's shortlist. If not, then maybe you could do it, Nilp, before nightfall. (Lalaith)
Um, not me! Why, I've timezones so horrible I could be awake for three-fourths of the day and still miss the action!

Maybe Firefoot, another proven innocent, could help. Yes, she definitely should, at least for toDAY, while we're sure she's innocent.

Vzv, where's Zali?
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Old 05-19-2006, 04:03 AM   #645
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Yes, timezones, of course. Ok, Firefoot it is then (if Gurthang can't do it for whatever reason.) No-one else can be trusted.
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Old 05-19-2006, 04:10 AM   #646
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Sting *bangs head on wall repeatedly*

Argh, should have remembered this sooner.

Only Gurthang can do it. He has the name of the Hunter. What if the Hunter is under suspicion, and we include him in the list, and then we lynch him? BIG trouble.
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Old 05-19-2006, 04:14 AM   #647
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Ah yes, of course. And Gurth can't even PM Firefoot the name because he's only allowed to PM with gifteds.
Well, it's lucky the poor man never sleeps, isn't it?
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Old 05-19-2006, 04:37 AM   #648
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Sting I've to go.

I remain highly suspicious of her.

++Azaelia of Willowbottom
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Old 05-19-2006, 04:42 AM   #649
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I've just had another thought. (Damn it, where are my fellow Europeans, I'm feeling weird talking to myself here, and I expect Nilp's gone to bed)
By going on the list of yesterday's most suspected, aren't we then making it very unlikely that we'll find either of the wolves cursed last night?
They would probably be people who weren't under suspicion yesterDay, after all...
I'm not saying undo the list, but perhaps tomorrow's list should feature a lot of fresh faces, that's all.
Oh, and yet another thought, drawing up a list toDay for the next Day's lynching will mean that whoever gets wolfed that following Night will not be one of those on that list. Something to bear in mind.
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Last edited by Lalaith; 05-19-2006 at 04:43 AM. Reason: cross-posted with Nilp
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Old 05-19-2006, 04:43 AM   #650
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Sting Oh, and . . .

We should give thought to the silent players. What do we do about them?
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Old 05-19-2006, 04:51 AM   #651
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Sting I'm not yet going to bed, Lalaith.

'tis but 7 in the evening here.

You make some good points, which reinforce my feeling that you're innocent.

Quote:
I've just had another thought. (Damn it, where are my fellow Europeans, I'm feeling weird talking to myself here, and I expect Nilp's gone to bed)
By going on the list of yesterday's most suspected, aren't we then making it very unlikely that we'll find either of the wolves cursed last night?
They would probably be people who weren't under suspicion yesterDay, after all...
I'm not saying undo the list, but perhaps tomorrow's list should feature a lot of fresh faces, that's all.
Oh, and yet another thought, drawing up a list toDay for the next Day's lynching will mean that whoever gets wolfed that following Night will not be one of those on that list. Something to bear in mind. (Lalaith)
The solution to this would be to let the suspicion list be drawn up tomorrow, but unless we plan to do it when everybody has posted--which means some will already have voted and gone--we will be doing the list based on yesterDAY's posting enedwaith.

Doing it toDAY would give us time to deliberate more tomorrow (and allow the early voters to give a proper vote). At least we'll have a chance to catch the older Werewolves.
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Old 05-19-2006, 05:42 AM   #652
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I see I've been drafted to write some kind of short list for you all. I can't promise anything; this may be the last time I'm on toDay, which is why I'm going to vote. If I'm around I'll try to put something together.

Dang it, none of these people look very suspicious to me.

++Azaelia

Diamond's analysis was interesting; I wish I had time to go check up on it myself, but I've already strayed way over time here.

Diamond, what's happening to our family? LMP, Nogrod, Lhuna, now Zali's on the lynch list...
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Old 05-19-2006, 06:11 AM   #653
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It’s quiet both on here, and in my RL working life, so I’ve been passing the time collating info that might be of use.
My little project is called Voting Patterns and Wolf Creation.
We know that the EW tried to turn Nilp, who has been getting one vote on each day. The question is, at what level of suspicion does a player become too likely a lynch candidate to be a useful wolf? I suppose it depends not just on the number of votes but also on the number of other players saying they suspect the person. Anyway, here are the numbers:

Day One:
Nogrod 6,
Eomer 1,
Lommy 4,
Loki 8,
Nilp 1,
Oddwen 2,
SPM 2,
Kath 1,
Alcarillo 1,
Lhuna 1

Would Noggie have been made a wolf by the EW after this? Very unlikely. So he must surely have been a Day One wolf. Naria posted a lot (for her) on Day One. She also voted for Nogrod. What does that mean? Was she an original, or a Night Two/Three wolf? I’m now turning to the idea of the latter, which means a Day One wolf still walks among us….I would guess the EW would not have turned Lommy on Night Two, either.

Day Two:
Valier – 1 Lalaith – 2, Nogrod – 11, Roa – 2, Fea – 1, Oddwen – 6, Nilp – 1

Incidently, two wolves (if Naria was not the wolf created on Night Three) voted for Oddwen. Probably a coincidence, of course. But nonetheless, with so much suspicion on her, Oddwen would be an unlikely choice for wolfing on Night Three. And probably Roa and I fall in that category too.

Day Three:
Eomer-3, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-2, Valier-3, Celuien-5

Now this makes Zali, Eomer and Valier (and possibly also Alc and Roa) unlikely Night Four wolves.

Of course, the person in question might already have been a wolf when they started garnering suspicion. (vis a vis Nogrod)
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Old 05-19-2006, 06:53 AM   #654
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Diamond - Azaelia (Azaelia-1)
Jenny - Valier (Azaelia-1, Valier-1)
Roa - Valier (Azaelia-1, Valier-2)
Alcarillo - Roa (Azaelia-1, Valier-2, Roa-1)
Fea - Roa (Azaelia-1, Valier-2, Roa-2)
Nilp - Zali (Azaelia-2, Valier-2, Roa-2)
Firefoot - Zali (Azaelia-3, Valier-2, Roa-2)

Lalaith I think you have some interesting ideas on the suspicion list vs the new cursings. It actually fits rather well with my theory that Valier would have been the converted wolf on night 3 as she only received one vote on day 2.

From whom haven't we heard today? Eonwe, Glirdan, Kath and Sleepy. Out of this group Kath worries me the least as she has been sufficiently vocal up to this point. The others have me worried due to our natural desire to avoid killing somebody simply because they are quiet but I'd rather hear from them soon.
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Old 05-19-2006, 06:58 AM   #655
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Oh... I was already wondering what all the black cloaks were doing in my laundry basket. Wise decision, Gurthang and Nilp, to step forward.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Nilp
a) Form a case against someone you suspect (well, for just one or for as many as you can? I'll let my scion/superior decide);
b) Decide which case can hold the most water;
c) Let Gurthang see your case (and subsequent discussion) and decide from that the list of death.
This is very much how I'd like to see things to be done because even though it were Gurthang who had the last word in nominating the lynching candidates, we are all still able to see who chose to make a case against whom, how they reacted etc. The Days will pass in usual Wizard/Wolf catching style, but the voting just will be a bit different.

Right now I'm baffled by this issue between Valier and Roa. It's clear that Valier wasn't the Seer, so I wonder what has made her so unusually confident about Roa. I know Valier has excellent instincts, but the way she's been campaigning against Roa seems odd. I must admit that I've had some suspicions of Roa, too, but they seem to be based more on a gut feeling than anything concrete.

My first thought when Gurthang revealed himsef was that the EW won't probably argue against the plan (if the EW has already spoken). They will accept it trying to appear helpful, and if none of their minions is on the list, why shouldn't they? If the EW has Wolves on the list, s/he will sacrifice them because it's safer than to start arguing against a clear plan. If that theory is right, it would indicate that Roa isn't the EW. However, the EW's picks (Loki, Nogrod, Naria, Nilp) look like something that Roa could choose, and Roa did vote according to the plan although it was spiced up with some sarcasm.

Anyway, if we assume that the EW has posted toDay (which isn't certain), the person that looks the most EWish to me would be Fea. It could possibly be due to her "mind-numbing headache", but I found her early posts odd. Besides, I think Fea would have been a good match for Gurthang as the other Wizard.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nilp
We should give thought to the silent players. What do we do about them?
True. It's just so hard to anylyse people who don't talk. Sleepy has made 3 posts and so has Eonwe. Oddwen has spoken 5 times, Zali seven...
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Old 05-19-2006, 07:17 AM   #656
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Here's a village overview, it's not as detailed as some, more general impression.
The known innocents are bolded, the silents are in italics, as I agree we need to focus on them.

Diamond of the Battledore ~ Has, (as I think Morm said) a post-count beyond the reach of analysis. The refusal to fall in line with GW plan makes her seem innocent, but she’s clever enough to double-bluff.

Caranlondien the Sled-Team Driver ~ has escaped much suspicion, has a quietly good reputation, and thus a good Night Four wolf choice.

Roa Aoife the weaver ~ another rebel. I only have one lore-book on the subject of Roa, and what we’ve seen so far is pretty much what I’d expect from her, but others may have a more extensive library.

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Baker ~ could Spawn still be a lowly ord all this time? She could be a wolf…or the EW herself, although I’m not sure she’d make the wolf choices the EW has made. (Well, except for Nilp… )
One thing I’ve noticed - she’s been making cases against innocents and then doesn’t vote for them. On Day Two it was me, on Day Three it was Celuien. That could of course be mischance, it’s easy to be wrong in a game like this.

Kath the minstrel ~ a strong player who hasn’t garnered suspicion. Again, good Night Four choice.

Lommy the little girl who steals other children's candy ~ I don’t know about Lommy. She’s been getting a medium amount of suspicion but has been quiet since yesterDay. Not sure about her either way.

Glirdan with the giant crush on Kath ~ Gone. Could he be made a wolf in his absence?

Valier the gardener ~ under lots of suspicion right now. Thus not a Night Four wolf but quite possibly an earlier one, particularly as I think the EW would want her on his side.

Sleepy Ranger the former wanderer ~ much the same feelings as I have about Glirdan.
Kitanna the beloved of Eomer ~ she has been posting most sensibly as far as I can make out - but she could be a night Four wolf.

Firefoot the artist ~ innocent. She was one of the ones I felt trusting towards yesterday anyway.

Alcarillo the old retired sea captain ~ too suspicious for a Night Four wolf. Could have been an original, though.

Oddwen the filthy, insane street urchin who steals chickens ~ dear wayward ward of mine, could you participate a little more? Unlike the other silentish ones, she’s been under a lot of suspicion, so if she’s a wolf she’ll be the surviving original.

mormegil the retired mariner and current mayor ~ I feel like trusting him because he’s making sense. But he would be a formidable EW.

Feanor the shepherdess with a love of alliteration ~ I’m scared she might be the EW.

Zali the seamstress and beloved of the phantom ~ suspected so not Night Four wolf. I’m not actually feeling as worried by her as some of you are.

Jenny Hallu the unmarried maiden & aunt ~ another good Night Four wolf choice.

Eonwe the freeloading husband of Lhunardawen ~ like Sleepy and Glirdan. Very quiet, where is he?

Eomer the adventurer & lover of Kitanna ~ unlikely Night Four wolf. And I don’t think he was guilty before last night so I’ll continue to trust him for now.

Nilpaurion the ne'er do well hubby of Dancing Spawn ~ innocent, ex-Seer, wanted last night as wolf by EW.

Gurthang the stable-hand ~ GW, innocent, wanted dead by wolves.

Some questions:
1. What did Gurth and Cailin, last night’s wolf-prey, say yesterDay?
Gurthang is uneasy about Eomer, Alcarillo, Lhuna and Zali. Then thinks spawn is innocent, and also morm because of his Eomer ploy. Then says he won’t vote for Fea, morm, spawn or Eomer, but will probably vote for Celuien, Azaelia, and Diamond. Next post, wants to vote for Diamond because he can’t find anything on Cel or Zali. Can’t find anything on Alc. Ends up voting for Zali.
Cailin, in post 403, sums up everyone – she finds Firefoot innocent (which we know now was correct) Did she get anything else right? She voted for Celuien, an innocent….
2. Like you spawn, I'm rather interested in the Valier and Roa squabble – and the implications of both being still alive this morning. The death of one might of course frame the other. Valier seemed to think this Morning that she would die last night. Why?
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Old 05-19-2006, 07:29 AM   #657
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Never again accuse me for being too vocal! Today was quite a read through. Seriously, we have had meaningful discussion so I don't complain.

About Gurthang's plan and "death list". First I was against it. I heartily agreed with Roa that it is no use since the only gifted we have is useful only when she dies.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nilp
So, depending on whether Gurthang's timezone situation can allow it, tomorrow we (or rather you):

a) Form a case against someone you suspect (well, for just one or for as many as you can? I'll let my scion/superior decide);
b) Decide which case can hold the most water;
c) Let Gurthang see your case (and subsequent discussion) and decide from that the list of death.

Plan okay with everyone?
I, as well, see this plan as a good one. Thanks, petty wizard.

As for my suspects... I'm totally confused! Eomer doesn't strike me as evil as he did yesterday, since he has done a reasonable defense of himself.

I would probably vote for Alc, if he was on the list. He keeps worrying me. Anyway, I want to show some support to our GW and pick from his list.

Of the other candidates my thoughts are:

Valier - That's her normal playing style! Stop suspecting her for that! I have fallen to suspect her only because of that enough times to be quite sure she's innocent. Wolfvalier is - according to the sole chapter in my lorebook on the topic - more careful than ordovalier. And we can't accuse our Valier here for overcaredulness.

Zali - I've thought her a pretty intelligent lass, so I can't believe her to be as careless as she now is if she were a wolf.

Roa - For a few days I believed her be the GW, the seer or the EW, and concluded it was of those most unprobable that she'd be the EW. Now, however, the thought is back, as I know who the GW is and who the seer was. I could very easily imagine Roa picking Noggie as her wolf. For a long time they've joked that they're always against each other, but if they one day were on the same side, they'd be invincible. Something in her posting strikes me as very innocent though.

I have no idea who I will vote! I don't really suspect anyone of them. Argh. Maybe I'll go through all their posts if I have time.

I have to vote early today since I'm going to spend the night with my friends and they'd kill me if I werewolfed... *sigh*

edit: cross-posted with Laughter
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Old 05-19-2006, 07:39 AM   #658
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I see my post above is quite vague. I think I have a problem with thinking people know what I think so I don't have to write logically.

Anyway, I meant that I first disagreed with the plan and then, when Nilp suggested his altered plan I thought it a good one and changed my mind. I hope that is a bit clearer than the post above.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith
Lommy the little girl who steals other children's candy ~ ... but has been quiet since yesterDay. Not sure about her either way.
It's called timezone-illness, dear lady... The day begins 1am for me so I'm sleeping and then I have my schoolday and then, when I finally have time, I must read through the thread...
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Old 05-19-2006, 07:54 AM   #659
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant
It could possibly be due to her "mind-numbing headache", but I found her early posts odd. Besides, I think Fea would have been a good match for Gurthang as the other Wizard.
It was and I'm pretty sure that they were just as odd as you say, but I'm running late *glares at alarm clock that didn't go off* and haven't time to reread. And we all know perfectly well I'd have made a good wizard in a land where pigs fly and eternally tortured souls are cold. I've already explained why I didn't volunteer for the position. I'd die too fast.

Here are my thoughts on Eomer and morm from the other Day: for a while I was flirting with the idea that they were GW and Seer. I was concerned with voting for either (I mentioned them and Cailin in the same breath), but not for the same reason as Cailin. Cai' I thought was innocent. 'Mer and morm... well... I was tossing up that they were either our good guys that knew more than the rest of us or that they were purely evil. Now I know that they were neither of them the good roles and I'm wondering more about them, but I can't stay to chat. I have classes until 4 (starting in 7 minutes) and then I'm working a 5-6 shift that will be highly inconvenient for ww work. I wish I hadn't voted last night but I wasn't much seeing straight, much less thinking it, and I definately don't have more time today.

The posts I most questioned were the ones previous to post 435 excluding 432, 433, & 434 because I cross-posted and didn't take those into account when stating that we ought not kill the folks. Think about it. I'm not asking you to do anything, just think about it since I can't?
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Old 05-19-2006, 08:32 AM   #660
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++Eomer

My choice was between two people I'm very unsure of, Eomer and Roa, today and of them Roa seemed more innocent judging by her posts and reactions.

I'm going now...
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Old 05-19-2006, 08:39 AM   #661
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Well, not a lot has happened while I slept.

"Nilp's" plan is basically what I had in mind. So if you disagree with my plan and agree with his, well... they're pretty much the same thing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith
I'm not saying undo the list, but perhaps tomorrow's list should feature a lot of fresh faces, that's all.
Maybe it will and maybe it won't.

I have to keep the EW on his toes; I need to keep him unsure and guessing. Part of that is not letting him know what I plan to do.

Let's say I did give my list for tomorrow. He'd probably pick new wolves that aren't on the list and then kill people not on the list so that there's no chance that any more of his wolves would be moved onto it. So, knowing he'll do that, maybe I'll make an entirely new list for tomorrow. If he suspects that that's my plan, then he'll actually pick wolves from the list. But, then I might throw him a curve and pick the exact same list as toDay.

So basically, I just act totally randomly, and he has the (very hard) job of guessing what my randomness will be.
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Old 05-19-2006, 08:48 AM   #662
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Well, I'm back.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nilp
So, depending on whether Gurthang's timezone situation can allow it, tomorrow we (or rather you):

a) Form a case against someone you suspect (well, for just one or for as many as you can? I'll let my scion/superior decide);
b) Decide which case can hold the most water;
c) Let Gurthang see your case (and subsequent discussion) and decide from that the list of death.

Plan okay with everyone?
This I find much easier to accept. I will happily go about building cases for presentation, but as I'm on the LIST OF DOOOOOOOOOOM (things always sound cooler with "doom" after them), I don't know how many will listen. Just one flaw I see- people will be coming up with cases about the people on the list, and very little time may be given to those who aren't already on the list. Also, and I think this was mentioned already, we're giving the EW a heads up on who is suspected by us, and who will be in danger of lynching tomorrow, making it easier on him to pick a wolf that won't get killed.

Also, for those who have brought up my behavior change, it's not really a change so much as it is me having more time now.

And about who I would have picked were I the EW- Loki, phantom, and Saucie for night one, then probably Valier, Alcarillo, and Kath, but not necessarily in that order. I wouldn't have picked Nogrod until much later in the game, after everyone was thoroughly convinced of his trustworthiness, if he lasted that long. Nogrod tends to draw suspicion early.

And since everyone seems to think Diamond's count is too high for them to do, I'll do it, since I have the time now.

Edit: Cross posted- but I didn't think they were different. I misunderstood, so now I get it.
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Old 05-19-2006, 08:56 AM   #663
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
I will happily go about building cases for presentation, but as I'm on the LIST OF DOOOOOOOOOOM (things always sound cooler with "doom" after them)
Yes, yes they do. In fact, it was the DAY OF DOOOOOOOOOM* that would have kept me from playing if LMP hadn't pushed back the deadline.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
Also, and I think this was mentioned already, we're giving the EW a heads up on who is suspected by us, and who will be in danger of lynching tomorrow, making it easier on him to pick a wolf that won't get killed.
See my above post.


*ask later.
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Old 05-19-2006, 08:58 AM   #664
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Ok, I've gone through the four Gurthang picked out for us and will comment on anything odd or suspicious about them.

DAY 1
Quote:
Eomer=
I think we should lynch.....Caranlondien? She'd make a fine wolf and the EW knows it. She's sensible, adds to the discussion, and I don't think she'd get lynched had I not put her name on the shortlist.

If I were the EW, I'd create a monster from her.
One of Eomer's "if I were the EW remarks" that Morm used against him yesterday. I think this was the first time he brought it up, so I didn't look too deeply into it.

Quote:
Eomer=
I think Loki is almost certainly not worth voting for today and I recommend that people stop voting for him/her. Even before we had the trouble with wolves in this village, we could easily see that Loki is an argumentative sort. The EW would not curse Loki.
If Eomer were the EW (or even an informed wolf) he would have known one of his was gone. If he was the EW he would know it was Loki, if he was an informed wolf he would know it was Loki, even if he was an uninformed wolf he might take Loki at his word of being the redeemed wolf. So, he knew Loki's innocence and defended him to make himself look good if Loki got the ax that day.
Quote:
Eomer=
Celuien, Caranlondien, Roa, Nogrod, Alcarillo, Cailín, Oddwen, Jenny, Lalaith or Gurthang.
Another "If I were evil I would curse" post.
Quote:
Eomer=
++NOGROD

Take it as a compliment: I'd curse you if I was evil.
And perhaps you did, seeing as Nogrod turned out to be cursed. Given Eomer's history I wouldn't put it past him to be so bold.
Quote:
Eomer=
Nogrod, like I said: To my mind, you would be a good pick for the EW. I voted for you out of everyone on my list because you had a vote already
Continued "if I were evil" statements, directed at a proven wolf.
Quote:
Valier=
but today I will go with my sister Fea on this one and vote for the newbie..sorry, but overly abrasive people are no fun to play with!

++Loki
Valier's vote for the day. She put in the vote when Loki was two votes ahead of Nogrod, so if she was a wolf at this time then she wasn't trying to save Nogrod (provided the wolves knew about each others' identities).
Quote:
Zali=
That said, I am going to vote

++Loki

because his behavior is, perhaps intentionally, confusing. His state of being as a newbie has no relation to this vote. His irritibility and aggression, and sudden shift of mood is worrisome. If this is an act, to what purpose does it serve? My instincts say he's not the evil wizard, but he's gathered the most suspicion of anyone from me today. I don't like that he and a few other people have turned into bandwaggons, since if they turn out innocent, the first people to fall under suspicion are those who hopped on board. However, I have genuine suspicion and worry about him, and I'm not making this vote just as an act of, "oh, hey. Everyone else is voting, so he must be bad".
Zali, Valier, and I all cross-posted when it came to voting for Loki. So according to Zali she was putting Loki ahead by three votes, like Valier.
Quote:
Roa=
So, assuming Loki's innocense, I look to those most eager to lynch him. Nogrod has been questioning Loki's claim from the start, never even asking the "true" convert to come forward. Certainly this person has nothing to fear, as the wizards already know who he/she is. I find it odd that Nogrod over looked this. Also, he held off his vote to point when it was clear the mob was set upon Loki- behavior I find far too careful for Nogrod's usual style. That's why I'm going to vote

++Nogrod
Roa's vote for day one.

DAY TWO
Quote:
Eomer=
The vote for Lommy, somewhat, because I think she's always prime lynching material and wouldn't be picked to be a wolf.
He's pretty confident Lommy would not be a pick of the EW. Nogrod is/was prime lynching material (always) and he was picked, so what makes Eomer so sure Lommy would not be?
Quote:
Valier=
My biggest suspects for toDay would be....Celuien, Caran, Kitanna, Naria, Alcarillo .Not that I have any concrete evidence yet, but I go with what I feel and toDay I thought of these....I will be around for the rest of the day, so I will have more time to read through and post some more.
Ok in this post Valier gives a list of who she thinks is good and who she thinks may be evil. On the bad list Naria appears, on the good list Nogrod appears. I don't have a whole lot to go on from that, but I did find that interesting.
Quote:
Roa=
++Nogrod

And I'd just like to say that if he is a wolf, then I'm going to throw my head back and laugh, because for once he's on the evil side and I'm not!
Roa's vote for this day. Not much of a surprise given her early attacks on Nogrod.
Quote:
Valier=
I do however hate it when people only come on once during the Day and post and vote and that is it...coughcoughNilpcoughcough This is unhelpful, but posting three posts daily is not necissarily odd for some players...
A defense against phantom's idea to lynch those who post little and say little. Plus the attack on Nilp (whether as a jest or not) is slightly uncalled for. Considering I can think of at least one other villager who was/is doing the same thing.
Quote:
Zali=
This looks ludicrous, I know, to appear suddenly and hop on the bandwaggon, especially since this is the second time it's happened. But each time, the people I found myself drawn to, suspicion-wise, were the same ones already set up as a lynch waggon.
Isn't that lucky for you, Zali? She also apologizes in advance if she's wrong, as is Zali's norm I believe. I hate that, if you think they're guilty, why say you're sorry?
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Old 05-19-2006, 09:00 AM   #665
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Gurthang, my chief concern was that you would be challenged by the EW at some point toDay or tomorrow, and therefore unable to make a list for us.
That's why I wanted to get in a contigency plan.
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Old 05-19-2006, 09:32 AM   #666
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith
Gurthang, my chief concern was that you would be challenged by the EW at some point toDay or tomorrow, and therefore unable to make a list for us.
That's why I wanted to get in a contigency plan.
After I die, everything will be like a normal WW game. I won't be making more gifteds, and there won't be new werewolves. You guys will have to find the wolves just like those in the lorebooks, and I know you'll be able to do it.

But I have to leave, and there's no guarantee that I'll be back. I'm still drawn between Roa and Valier. There are good points for and against each of them. But I must decide.

++Valier

Her switch after Night 3 is telling. It makes a lot of sense if she were a wolf. There was also that strange crying apology post.

If I don't get back, then I'll see you guys tomorrow.
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Old 05-19-2006, 09:32 AM   #667
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You know, that brings up something I've been wondering about myself- So in the event of a challenge, are both wizards removed immediately? Or do they last till the end of the day? Do they come up with a cool fight scene? That would be cool. Gurthang vs the EW in what might be considered an actual RP. After Gurthang's opening, it's something I bet I'd enjoy reading.

The Diamond analysis is coming- I haven't done this much work since Lommy's massive flood posting several games ago.
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Old 05-19-2006, 09:43 AM   #668
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OK, you've all written way, way, way too much and I'm not even going to pretend that I'm going to read through all of it properly toDay, but I've done a skim read and know basically what's going on.

Gurthang I'll follow your lead and list.

++VALIER

Because she has been so against Roa from the word go, to the extent that she doesn't even seem to see other possible candidates.

Now, my apologies but this will be my only post toDay I should think. T'was my last day of minstrel school and I've spent the last couple of hours drowning my sorrows and am therefore not completely with it, and may be heading out again in the near future. BUT. This does not mean this is a random vote. I took Gurthang's list and voted for the one I found most suspicious from previous Days and as much of toDay as I read.

One thing, regifting Nilp toNight would be a good plan. If the EW then goes after him there's a stalemate, we lose a Gifted toNight but the EW doesn't gain a wolf. And if the EW doesn't go after Nilp we gain a Seer for at least one Night.
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Old 05-19-2006, 09:47 AM   #669
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Well, Kath, there is always the option that the wolves will just kill Nilp. In fact, there will be two kills tonight, as there will be at least four wolves even if we succeed in killing one toDay
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Old 05-19-2006, 09:49 AM   #670
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Told you I wasn't with it Thanks for making that clear Lalaith.
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Old 05-19-2006, 10:24 AM   #671
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fea
I've already explained why I didn't volunteer for the position. I'd die too fast.
Well, as far as I can see you're still alive.


Anyway, out of those who are not on the death list I find Caran quite Wolvish toDay. I noticed that Caran has been a bit apologetic from the beginning (e.g. she apologised to Loki), and she has said quite little about her own suspicions. Sure, she has named suspects and defended some villagers, but her cases certainly aren't verbose. She seems to like talking about the theoretical aspect of Wizard/Wolf hunting much more than actually catching them. She often gives voting stats which is helpful, but tells very little of Caran herself.

ToDay Caran hasn't voiced suspicions at all. She has just defended herself, listed the unknown villagers and said that Di and Roa's initial reluctance to follow "the plan" makes them look less suspicious. Somehow it seems that the whole time Caran has acted more carefully than you'd assume by reading the lorebooks. That carefulness has been pretty apparent especially toDay.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Caran
Alas, how I have rued my vote from yesterDay... But, as Firefoot said, you win some, you lose some.
An apologizer... *shudders* Seriously though, as Diamond pointed out, this is a bit odd statement. Caran already gave her explanation, but still.

Quote:
I know this is the blasted "polling the village" and I'll be jumped upon for it, but does anyone have something in their lorebooks about Roa as an innocent?
To me that doesn't look the suspicious kind of "polling", it's just a question. However, that precautious behaviour is something that raises red flags in my mind.

It's not much, just a few things that make me wonder about Caran's allegiance, but looking at the votings and general reputation of people, I think Caran might have been a tempting pick for the EW.


Now, the votes are:

Diamond -> Zali
Jenny -> Valier
Roa -> Valier
Alcarillo -> Roa
Fea -> Roa
Nilp -> Zali
Firefoot -> Zali
Lommy -> Eomer
Gurthang -> Valier
Kath -> Valier (Valier-4, Zali-3, Roa-2, Eomer-1)


More later.
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Old 05-19-2006, 10:24 AM   #672
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Diamond analysis- Since there's too much for me to keep track of, I'm going to analyze as I summarize.

Day 1
1st post - Nonsense, states intention to not vote for anyone in her family, and vote to save any one of theses members, will drop this after Day 1, gives thoughts on villagers (mostly nonsense), though some predictions turned out accurately:

Quote:
Nogrod ~ My dear long suffering hubby, it's only a matter of time before he snaps. Sure he's okay now, but watch out for that one in the later stages.

Naria ~ Inhuman.

The Saucepan Man ~ Must die.
Of course, this is just as likely luck as it is something malicious. It just caught my eye, and made me wonder if she managed to state anymore truths.

2nd- Response to Loki, tells him to calm down

3rd - Defends Nogrod's attack on Loki, personal attack on Loki's playing style

4th - Response to Alcarillo, says she didn't threaten Cailin, merely predicted her death, says she hopes the predictions do not come true, more nonsense

5th - Clarification on the Loki matter- says it's reasonable that both wizards chose Loki, but refuses to believe it on his word alone, says there's no way of knowing except to kill Loki.

Here she says that Loki's claim is reasonable, but she refuses to believe it anyways.

6th - After suggestion by Celuien, questions Nogrod's reasons for attacking Loki, finds some of Nogrod's comments strange

I find this an odd turn around after everything that she'd said earlier. She admits that Nogrod's reasons don't really make sense, but only after Celuien remarked on it

7th - Nonsense response to phantom

8th - Says she's clueless about what sort of posting might reveal an Evil Wizard, believes the EW will be quiet, states that it would be really good for the village to catch the EW right now (Well, duh…)

9th - Agrees with Naria's guess about what the wizards fear. More Nonsense.

10th - This quote:
Quote:
Yes... well, all that about the EW having more to fear than the GW and wanting to stay hidden as long as possible has been discussed as we've been, er, heeding the Watchers prophecy and preparing for the day when the Shadow arrived.
Sounds like she was trying to dismiss the talk about the EW

It's followed shortly by this:

Quote:
Which brings me back around to expecting that the EW will be relatively quiet, banking on slipping just under our watchfulness. Being too quiet is suspicious in and of itself, so we'll be looking for someone riding the middle ground.
The second time she's stated that the EW will be quiet. She says it again later in her post. This looks incredibly similar to what Nogrod was saying about the wolves all being quiet, and it makes me wonder if she's trying to get us to look elsewhere for the EW.

11th - Glad she isn't the first to vote, doesn't fault Nilp's vote for Nogrod, admits Nogrod is suspicious, votes for Loki, wants to see Loki gone, says she'd give him the benefit of the doubt if it weren't for his attitude- This seems slightly hypocritical of Diamond since she's known for her attitude, and my lore books say that it's gotten her lynched before. It may also be a cover for her o be rid of the "one that got away"

Apologizes to family for not being around to save them if it becomes necessary.

This is just a devil's advocate view, but now that we know Nogrod was a wolf, and that he had fallen under suspicion at the point, it's possible that this was a direct comment to Nogrod.

Day 2, up next… Oi vey…
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Old 05-19-2006, 10:33 AM   #673
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DAY THREE
Quote:
Zali=
For some reason, prolonged wailing on and on really hits a nerve in me, which I'm sure is not entirely reasonable. But there it is. At least Diamond's post didn't feel like it was lacking in substance. Alcarillo provides no explanation for this totally in character wailing.
A reasonable case against Alcarillo, but up until this point she had seen nothing wrong with him. Now his melodramatic mourning session did give many people reason to suspect him and Zali may be no different. But you never know, she could have had a sudden change of heart for another reason.
Quote:
Zali=
I'm going to vote for Eomer because he has, at the very least, an unhealthy obsession with the EW. I realize that this is happening without giving him any chance to defend himself, which is not ideal.
A vote for Eomer based on what Morm brought forward for us to see.
Quote:
Zali=
Should Eomer turn out to be innocent, I think it's fairly obvious that we ought to look closely at Mormegil who got this bandwaggon-to-be rolling.
Again not unreasonable, but if I had to say anyone started an Eomer bandwagon it would have been Zali not Morm, since she cast the first vote against him. I feel this is just Zali covering her tracks if she happens to be wrong and Eomer is killed an innocent. This makes me think if Zali is guilty, then Eomer is most likely an innocent.
Quote:
Eomer=
Mormegil, I'm trying to think like the EW in order to guess who he/she picked as wolves. Because, in the early going at least, there's no solid logic to work with. It's mostly guesswork. That's why I consider what would be good EW picks and go from there.
But almost every post from day one was about your supposed choices if you were evil, that doesn't look very good for you, considering your history.
Quote:
Eomer=
but there is no way I am being cursed as a wolf. My survival rate is pitiful.
I believe this to be beyond true. I seriously doubt any EW would dare pick Eomer as a wolf. I'd say he's the EW or nothing.
Quote:
Valier=
I know this is in the Narration, but I find this extremely odd as well......Weaving TALES are we? You know....this sounds like Roa's making alot of bluffing stories....I know we shouldn't use this, but where does it say that there isn't a shred of truth in the deaths?
I find it odd and troubling Valier used the narration to find some sort of evidence, even if we all knew it meant very little.
Quote:
Valier=
I found this as well and it seems to have been true....I think Nogrod and Naria would have been bad picks for the GW, hence good picks for the EW. Also Loki could be in this list as well... Sounds Fishy to me that Roa's "plan" came true...Could just be a coincedence, but I doubt it...
I find it rather fishy you picked one wolf as a "goodie" and one wolf as a "baddie." What Roa said is just as odd as what you said.
Quote:
Valier=
I don't think they're far fetched...So the Phantom let everyone know that he was the Hunter then by posting the arrow and I don't think it far fetched that he very well may have put in an anagram. I think Naria or one of the other wolves picked up on that and voted to kill him.....but I am still not sure.....Phantom did not kill Naria though
Funny you should say this. If you picked up on that when phantom posted it you could have decided to kill phantom in the night and your wolven comrades had a similar idea. However as many pointed out to Valier, phantom was not made the Hunter until that day had ended. So why did Valier continue to push her arrow idea?
Quote:
Roa=
Valier- your record so far has been less than steller. First, you cast the vote that put Loki (an innocent) in the lead, then you decided the Nogrod wasn't a threat. My lorebook tells me that you are astoudingly off your game. Or perhaps your doing so purposfully. Either way, your instinct has not been trustworthy this game.
A true statement, but I can't help feeling Roa is just trying to get everyone to look a Valier and not her.
Quote:
Roa=
I don't understand all of the suspicion for Alcarillo. He had a reason to defend himself, as people were suspecting him, and SPM's death made him look quite bad. And while I don't particularly like incharacter posts at this stage of the game, I don't see it making him guilty.
Roa defended Loki who turned out to be innocent, here she defends Alcarillo, who no one knows about yet. And she attacked Nogrod who turned out to be guilty. This could go either way, Roa may well be innocent and has really good luck in catching the good and bad. Or she could be trying to put herself out there as an innocent and she can fall back on "I was right about Loki and Nogrod, why shouldn't I be right about Alcarillo?" If that is true and Roa is evil I'd say look closely at Alcarillo. If she's innocent, I wouldn't remove Alcarillo from the suspect list, but I'd focus on others before him.
Quote:
Eomer=
Flipped a coin?!?! I'm beginning to think this relationship was a bad idea.
Picking between one's mother and one's love is not an easy choice you know.
Quote:
Valier=
Feel free to look at me deeply tomorrow if I don't get killed by evil Roa and her wolves overnight....I have nothing to hide!
Not the first and most certainly not the last time Valier comes out and says Roa is the EW. I find it hard to see an EW Valier doing this over and over again. It raises an alarm, but I'm not entirely sure what to make of it. Valier just made this day chaotic, maybe she was just putting the cherry on the top.

DAY FOUR
Quote:
Valier=
So I would like to find a wolf today and let the wizards do their own thing when they are ready.
Given Valier's oddity of Day three I decided to look into this statement. Mainly because most of the village has said finding the EW should be a main concern because then s/he can't make anymore wolves. Valier says the opposite. Valier had been pretty reckless earlier and given that it's hard for me to say what I should make of this. If I ignored Valier's claims of Roa being the EW and the whole phantom's arrow post, then I might say she is guilty. But given her behavior I find it hard to figure this out.
Quote:
Roa=
Um, Fea, if the GW stepped forward, we could just lynch him to test his claim. And, actually, I'm not terribly opposed to that, except that we need to catch a wolf today, not a GW. The EW wouldn't really have any benefit to protecting the GW. Take some advil and possibly a nap.
I feel the village would lose a day with this plan and that is what the EW would want. Of course blindly following someone's claim is bad, but I can't see the evil ones gaining much by coming forward as the GW. That just gives the GW a leg up.
Quote:
Valier=
I know, I know I cannot prove Roa is the EW (until she dies of course) and sadly no, I am not the unSeer. I just have a really strong feeling that's all! But I think our focus today should be on catching a wolf.
But your gut feelings have been wrong so far this game and it's possible they're wrong now. And if you are innocent lynching Roa on your gut feeling may be your doom as well (if she's innocent). But I know how you feel Valier, but even if you're right the wolves won't let you live through the night.
Quote:
Valier=
Even if I was a wolf I would surely read everthing more careful, would I not? because making up lies is far harder than telling the truth or how I feel, which has been what I've been doing. I understand how others think I look suspicious but, like always in the Lore books if you check I am always found innocent when lynched because of my weird outbursts and accusations.
She speaks a good deal of truth here, but a small nagging feeling says she may be trying to bluff us.
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Old 05-19-2006, 10:48 AM   #674
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Roa~ An excellent choice as a wolf. She has well thought-out arguements and can persuade others to her way of thinking. I'm not sure I think she's the EW, mainly because she had Nogrod lynched. Not just lynched, but she had a good case against him. I'd think if the EW picked her to be a wolf he'd reveal the others to her so she could avoid attacking them during the day in the fashion she attacked Nogrod. I'd say at the time of Nogrod's death Roa may not have been wolf. Knowing she can cover her tracks and persuade so well she may be the EW, but I'm not ready to put my vote on that.
Eomer~ An excellent bluffer and his "if I were the EW" statements do worry me, but the more I think about it the less likely I feel this bluff could be. He could pull it off, but I'm not as convinced today as I was yesterday. In any case he's a terrible wolf choice and if he's anything, he's the EW.
Zali~ At first nothing seemed amiss about her, but looking back she is rather odd. She was quick to jump on the Eomer bandwagon, which was partly because of time issues, but also looking at what had been said up until that point she may have thought Eomer would die and she wanted to make sure she had the first vote. Looking past that, Zali apologized for her votes, if she happened to be wrong. She tries to keep all her bases covered and has escape plans if her votes land her in trouble. What a good exit strategy. Her agreeable nature and ability to fly low and stay out of trouble makes her a choice for evil.
Valier~ A disturbing case. Valier's behavior of day three and part of today is so reckless I'm having trouble sorting out if she's bluffing us or just a terribly misguided innocent. She's a hard nut to crack and she gives me an uneasy feeling, but I can't vote based on that.

I'll probably vote for Zali or Valier today unless something happens before I get on to vote. But for now I'm going to go think over those two choices and figure out who is more likely to be evil.
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Old 05-19-2006, 10:48 AM   #675
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Well I'm back now and I guess I have some defending to do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gurthang

Her switch after Night 3 is telling. It makes a lot of sense if she were a wolf. There was also that strange crying apology post
and some say I don't read carefully!! This appologetic post was for the Mod, for me using the narration for clues!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thin
Valier - That's her normal playing style! Stop suspecting her for that! I have fallen to suspect her only because of that enough times to be quite sure she's innocent. Wolfvalier is - according to the sole chapter in my lorebook on the topic - more careful than ordovalier. And we can't accuse our Valier here for overcaredulness.
Thank goodness someone knows how I play!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitanna
Ok in this post Valier gives a list of who she thinks is good and who she thinks may be evil. On the bad list Naria appears, on the good list Nogrod appears. I don't have a whole lot to go on from that, but I did find that interesting.
Quote:
Yes I put Nogrod on my Goodie list because I thought he was innocent...boy did I get fooled!
I would just like to say that I don't think my switch in game play is odd! I believe Roa is guilty, but now that the GW is out I thought I would not have to concentrate on the wizards anymore and I could just look at who would be wolves....what's wrong with that?
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Old 05-19-2006, 10:54 AM   #676
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Yes, catching wolves is good, but we really, really need to catch the EW soon.
While the EW lives, there will be two villager deaths a night. (And when the wolf population grows to seven, there will be three.) Even in the extremely unlikely situation that we successfully lynch a wolf every day, a new one will have appeared by morning to replace him.
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Old 05-19-2006, 11:02 AM   #677
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I agree with you that the EW needs to go...why do you think I was pushing for Roa to go? I know noone else believes me about her, but what else was I supposed to do just quietly say Oh I think Roa is the EW? I wanted to cause a big fuss about it and was hoping to get some good reactions so I could strengthen my case against her and her Baddies. I thought everyone wanted to find the wolves and wanted me to look for them and not accuse the EW, that is why I made the "switch" to now start looking for wolves. So did anybody even look to see how others took my outbursts?
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Old 05-19-2006, 11:25 AM   #678
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Diamond: Day 2

1st - post Says she wrote the post during the Night, with out knowing who would die in the morning.
Response to Spawn, doesn't think the phantom is the EW,
Again states that the EW will opt for Discretion.
Also says that the EW may not follow logic, just to throw us off, points out that the EW may have picked high profile players,
States again that the EW will opt for discretion.
Nonsense response to Glirdan.
Agrees with Fea, says the GW is supposed to be a martyr.
More reasons why phantom wouldn't be the EW, but thinks he might be the GW
Says that we can't narrow the wizard search to those who have more time.
Response to SPM's list of unlikely gifteds
Response to Loki, says she voted him off because he was causing confusion in the village. (Odd considering how few posts Loki made, a couple at the beginning, and one at the end…. )
For some reason, has assumed that Roa is Loki's "friend" , again defends her vote for Loki
Again states that phantom isn't the EW.
Thinks Roa is a wizard based on "friend theory" assumes Loki was chosen because of friendship.

This is in direct contradiction with her post on day one, where she said she could see the logic in Loki as a choice for both wizards. Also, she seems quite ready to disregard any theories concerning the EW, with out putting forth any of her own, except that the EW will be quiet and use discretion, conveniently the opposite of her behavior.

2nd- post wonders about narration for gifteds

3rd - Response to Celuien, kind of agrees, mostly disagrees. Says everyone mentioned by SPM would find it risky to kill him. Also says that is could be a double bluff. In essence, she says nothing.

4th - apologizes for mistakenly attributing one of Spawn's quotes to Fea

5th - Sort of responds to morm, what she says doesn't really make sense here
Says she doesn't feel bad for lynching Loki, could give reasons why she found him offensive, but decides not to since he can't defend himself - No remorse for lynching an innocent?
Wishes things were moving faster at the moment, but says she'll have to vote early tomorrow
States again that phantom is innocent
Wonders if morm has some extra knowledge about the gifteds not performing their duties.
Says that while morm normally has good instincts she doesn't trust them at the moment, because she's innocent and he suspects her.

6th - Nonsense with phantom, wonders where Roa is, more nonsense, response to Fea, says her theory about Roa-Loki connection could only be half right at best, since both wizards chose him

7th - response to phantom about the seer not dreaming

8th - Says she's at a loss for who to vote for, admits that she is loud and troublesome like Loki (which is why she lynched him- again, hypocrisy) says Roa's answers were satisfactory, admits that among her banter it was difficult to find something to respond to, doesn't think Gurthang is a wizard… well, oopsie on her…
Votes Nogrod, says she suspected him yesterday, (directly in contradiction with her posts previous to Celuien's point) says one of his reasons (the early post, which she criticized Loki for previously) was just silly.
Apologizes.

I agree with Spawn, apologies creep me out.


Day 3 up next
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Old 05-19-2006, 11:27 AM   #679
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Shield

O Mother!

In this time of sorrow I have not had an opportunity to come to the village square until now; but now that I'm here I will offer some quick thoughts.

First of all, go with Gurthang! This is a no-brainer: take his advice.

Second, this has been implied but not stated explicitly. The EW is more than likely female, right? To balance Gurthang? Worth thinking about. Fea is still my number one suspect for the EW.

Kit, I've already explained why I focused on the EW; and I've already explained why my posts took that general format. The style underlines the point that all I could do at that time was guess how the EW was working. I'm not averse to in-your-face bluffery (just ask those Corsairs from last year — nevermind)...

[and that is not an example]

...I'm not doing it now. Only proof of this, of course, would be to lynch me.

Another thing: I believe Valier may be, what some in the industry call, the sacrificial wolf. Pretty much all her strange behaviour is acomplishing is getting the village in a fantastic kerfuffle. Her single-minded attack on Roa is just uncalled for in a village as vast as this one still is. I think she could well be trying to instigate unrest, with the possible intention of making her wolf-allies look good by suspecting her. As I suggested before, it's not like she came out all guns blazing at the start. She seemed more tentative in her discussion of game rules, and when criticised for it she got rather sketchy. Scrambly, I would go so far to say.

I think I may go with my instinct again and vote for Valier. Oh, and was it Kitanna who asked me about Lommy and Nogrod? Yes, I truly did believe that Nogrod would have been a good pick for the EW at the start. Maybe it was this ultra-vigilance of the villagers that got him lynched; maybe he made unusual errors; maybe we just got lucky (Hmm....wonder if that's the right answer...) I sincerely think that there's nothing inherently worrisome about Nogrod, unlike Lommy.

So: I maintain that Nogrod was a good original pick and Lommy was a terrible one, and is thus not a wolf.
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Old 05-19-2006, 11:28 AM   #680
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Kitanna, just to clarify- I was not suggesting we lynch Gurthang. I was pointing out why it would be illogical for a bad guy to pose as the GW. I also said that we needed to catch a wolf, to keep the wolf population from growing. And while I think catching the EW is a good idea too, at that time, I didn't really have any clues for who the EW may be.
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