Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Farael]

I'm not sold yet against Nilp yet if you add my thoughts to Kuruharan's dissection of Garin's posts Nilp's prospects look grim.

Let's start by taking into account that Garin argued a fair bit with me, Valier and Gurthang. As I know I'm innocent and I don't suspect Valier at all (for the time being at least) we could assume that Gurthang is innocent, just on the basis of Garin arguing with him, as that wolf's MO seems to be arguing against innocents and trying to raise suspicion against them.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I’m finding this continual bickering with Gurthang to be curiously troubling. On the face of it, this should speak in Gurthang’s favor. However, the relentlessness of it seems rather imprudent behavior for a wolf toward a villager. Especially considering he never really got close to voting for Gurthang

I would agree with that if it wasn't because I see Valier as being innocent and I know I am as well. I'm willing to give Gurthang another night to prove his usefulness. Also, if I'm not mistaken Gurthang was the one to settle Garin's fate, as the voting was tied 5-5 with Lhuna before he voted.

On the other hand, while WolvGarin did adress Nilp it did not seem he was trying to raise suspicions against him, furthermore he was defending him. This is a clear break from his MO as Garin seemed all to ready to suspect everyone he talked to. It's fairly weak grounds but the evidence is slowly mounting against Nilp.

Regarding Lhuna's "guilt" (or lack thereof) Garin voted for her last night, tying their scores, again if my math doesn't fail me... it doesn't seem a wise move to have two werewolves as the top suspects for the lynching, as it would go bad for the wolves no matter who got lynched. I'm willing to bet on Lhuna's innocence for the time being, just based on that fact.

Those are my thoughts for now... I'll keep thinking and get back to you later... Long live the Ranger!!!!

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

As for Lhuna, I'm not sure what to make of her. Her vote for him, as someone has said, does fit her usual voting pattern. The possibility does exist that she is a Wolf, though. I'm very uncertain about her right now.

My suggestion is this: Lynch Nilpaurion Felagund toDay, while having the Seer ask Garin whether Lhuna's a wolf during the Night.

Cross-posted with Menel and Lhuna... could someone please review last day's voting? I don't trust myself for that task, I'm afraid and I think we are sticking too much to the first day's voting while more clues could be found on the second day... if what I said on my last post is right, we might be better off looking away from Lhuna (as Garin voted for her, bringing her "score" up to a tie with him) and away from Gurthang who seemed to have sealed Garin's destiny.

And why did I quote Menel? well, how are we going to know what the Seer finds out? unless he/she knows a werewolf already, he/she should remain silent I think. Although if the seer knows a wolf, he/she should talk immediately as we can lynch the wolf today, have the apprentice ask him tonight about someone else and we would know a couple of innocents assuming:
-The Seer asked about two persons to Moderacil
-The Seer asked about someone else to Garin
-The Seer is obviously not a wolf
That would take four people out of the question, and as I only support the seer coming forward if he knows for sure about a wolf, that'd mean we get rid of another wolf and get four confirmed innocents. I think it's a fair bargain, don't you? furthermore, the Ranger can still protect the seer one more night (assuming he protected him last night and not someone else)

[Naria]

Now that the seer has a wolf to talk too, I think that it would be a really good idea for that person to come forward and help out us villagers.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Does anyone else think this would be a good choice? Garin's vote now really seems like a 'save Nilp' push. I've always worried that Nilpaurion would be able to use his consistant 'lynch me' as a cover for when he really was a werewolf. I think this might be that time. He'll be high on my list when voting comes, but the Day is young.

That was exactly my point in the first day. I either didn't make myself too clear with the way that I chose my wording or everyone just didn't want too see that maybe, just maybe this "crazy" Nilpaurion could be playing the same way before in other games(psycho) and could be a wolf this time.

I have a few other suspicions as well but I'll leave that for a bit later.

[Valier]

Well this has been a fairly informative day! Yeah for the Ranger! Us villagers got to keep another innocent(hopefully).I think I Will put all my thoughts on everyone down for the record,because I will only be able to post a quick post in the morning to vote,so if my vote seems hasty that will be the reason.


People I'm pretty sure are innocent-Farael,
Rune
Kuruharan,
Gurthang

Mainly because they have had the same views as me,as well as half the stuff they write I have also thought of but they beat me to the chase (no insult,Great minds think alike remember)

People I'm not quite sure of.. yet-Alcarillo
Amanaduial
[B] Azaelia[/B
Naria
These three are a bit puzzling to me,They sometimes agree with me then other times,they suspect me.Haven't heared to much about Alcarillo So it's hard to judge but I remember reading a post in the beginning of Garin saying he would not vote for Alcarillo on respite but thought him innocent.Could be a wolf protecting another,maybe?

Meneltarmecil-This guy ...well gives me the creeps.I just don't get him yet he "Howls at the moon" is that a good sign really?

Cailin-I have been suspisious of her since the beginning,but theres not much to go on,she did vote for two innocents, and has been suspisious of me and defensive with anyone who accuses her.I think she is innocent though..safe for the day anyways.her defensiveness is a natural reaction of an innocent.

TGWBS-His lack of posts is odd,But his points on Lhuna are sound.

Lhunardawen-I have a feeling....don't quite know yet

Nilpaurion Felagund-My vote will more than likely be for him I don't believe the crazy stuff.I'm curious as to weather to lynch him to see,or go a little differently.

Malkatoj-I have a bbbaaddddd feeling about this one though I'm not sure I'll act on it yet,or if I should even.

So I'll try to read any posts in the morning before school,then I'll vote then.
I hope we catch a wolf! And I hope my votes a good one. I know I didn't state any thing new but mostly everything said today is the way I was thinking.The seer should come forth if they know anything..till tommorow ciao

[Alcarillo]

Valier, you are mistaken that Garin said he thought I was innocent. He simply stated he would not cast a retribution vote against me.

Originally Posted by Garin, in post 109

As for the seer/apprentice situation I am beginning to be swayed towards the idea the more I think about it. So is that suspicious?
I doubt I will cast a retribution vote against Alcarillo. I hold no ill regard towards Cailin although some have already cast suspicion upon he/she in previous posts. I will save my vote for later. Again sticking my neck out. Because early votes can be dismissed as random while later votes can be seen as agenda driven.

Originally Posted by Menel

My suggestion is this: Lynch Nilpaurion Felagund toDay, while having the Seer ask Garin whether Lhuna's a wolf during the Night.

Originally Posted by Farael

Although if the seer knows a wolf, he/she should talk immediately as we can lynch the wolf today, have the apprentice ask him tonight about someone else and we would know a couple of innocents assuming:
-The Seer asked about two persons to Moderacil
-The Seer asked about someone else to Garin
-The Seer is obviously not a wolf
That would take four people out of the question, and as I only support the seer coming forward if he knows for sure about a wolf, that'd mean we get rid of another wolf and get four confirmed innocents. I think it's a fair bargain, don't you? furthermore, the Ranger can still protect the seer one more night (assuming he protected him last night and not someone else)

So, if the Seer knows a werewolf, he or she should proclaim his Seership, name the werewolf, and we lynch it. Then the Seer, under the protection of the Ranger, asks Garin about Lhuna. If the Seer names no werewolf (or the werewolf is Nilp), then we lynch Nilp. Sounds like a sound plan to me.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Alcarillo

So, if the Seer knows a werewolf, he or she should proclaim his Seership, name the werewolf, and we lynch it. Then the Seer, under the protection of the Ranger, asks Garin about Lhuna. If the Seer names no werewolf (or the werewolf is Nilp), then we lynch Nilp. Sounds like a sound plan to me.

I wouldn't go as far as to coherce others into my voting choices.... but the first part is true, if the seer knows a werewolf he/she should say it, be protected by the ranger while he/she asks Garin and then probably die the next night, but at the same time the apprentice can ask the newly dead werewolf (the one we'd lynch tonight if the seer came out)

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I find this obsession that some people seem to have with lynching Lhuna to be a bit bizarre. The evidence has never seemed that convincing to me and the theory presented toDAY just seems…strange. I’m not at all saying that we should forget her. I am saying that we probably can stick her on the back burner for a bit until something a little more useful comes up.

I agree with this statement (to an extent). I would consider lynching Nilp a much higher priorety. I think we can wait on lynching Lhuna, but we certainly shouldn't forget about her.

Also, you actually bring up a good point about me and Garin. That's probably one of the reasons I ended up voting for him (although it hadn't really occured to me at the time.) His constant badgering was to the point that I had just started to ignore him. After one last response (my post 192?) I did not mention him again except when thinking out loud who to vote for. Although, I didn't really say much at all after that point.

Kuru, you are making sense to me, and that points to your innocence in my eyes.

Originally Posted by Valier

Malkatoj-I have a bbbaaddddd feeling about this one though I'm not sure I'll act on it yet,or if I should even.

I echo that feeling. I just can't shake that there's something not quite right about her. But I doubt I'll be voting just because I have a bad feeling... not toDay anyway, when I'm more sure of Nilp.

Everyone who is talking about what the Seer should do should take into account that the Seer may have already spoken to Garin. In which case they can not do so again.

I'm going to compile the votes and do an analysis. It might take a little while; maybe half an hour.

[Farael]

Here's my attempt at a compilation of votes from yesterday, let me know if I missed something

Alcarillo- Callin (Cailin 1)
Lhuna - Eluchil (Cailin 1 - Eluchil 1)
Amanduial - Lhuna (Cailin 1 - Eluchil 1 - Lhuna 1)
Nilp - Cailin (Cailin 2 - Eluchil 1 - Lhuna 1)
Farael- Garin (Cailin 2 - Eluchil 1 - Lhuna 1 - Garin 1)
Malkatoj - Lhuna (Cailin 2 - Eluchil 1 - Lhuna 2 - Garin 1)
Rune - Garin (Cailin 2 - Eluchil 1 - Lhuna 2 - Garin 2)
TGBS - Lhuna (Cailin 2 - Eluchil 1 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 2)
Naria - Cailin (Cailin 3 - Eluchil 1 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 2)
Azaelia - Garin (Cailin 3 - Eluchil 1 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 3)
Cailin - Eluchil (Cailin 3 - Eluchil 2 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 3)
Valier - Garin (Cailin 3- Eluchil 2 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 4)
Kuruharan - Garin (Cailin 3 - Eluchil 2 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 5)
Garin - Lhuna (Cailin 3 - Eluchil 2 - Lhuna 4 - Garin 5)
Gurthang - Garin (Cailin 3 - Eluchil 2 - Lhuna 4 - Garin 6)

I see I made a mistake as Garin's vote against Lhuna did not take him out of the lead, although it would have helped anyone trying to save him. On that note, I'm not as sure I could argue completely for Gurthang's innocense based solely in the voting, as he might have realized that either way Garin was lost and chose to cut with his (possibly) fellow werewolf rather than taking the fall with him. Still, I'm playing a bit of devil's advocate as I do not suspect Gurthang at the moment.

I think that Garin's vote for Lhuna pretty much saves her from most suspicion, yet there might be another wolf who voted for Lhuna early on. Those who voted for Lhuna were:
-Amanduial
-TGWBS
-Malkatoj

The three have been fairly silent and while Malkatoj has said it is because of his schooling, I can't recall if TGWBS or Amanduial had any excuses. IT seems the tide is heading against Nilp for tonight and unless something unexpected happens (and it may) he will probably be lynched, but I'd suggest we take a close look at those individuals as well.

Those are my thoughts for now.

[Kuruharan]

On that note, I'm not as sure I could argue completely for Gurthang's innocense based solely in the voting, as he might have realized that either way Garin was lost and chose to cut with his (possibly) fellow werewolf rather than taking the fall with him. Still, I'm playing a bit of devil's advocate as I do not suspect Gurthang at the moment.

Just to elaborate on this point for future reference (if really untoward things start happening, and any survivors want to come back and see this) if Gurthang had voted for Lhuna it would not have made any difference in Garin’s fate because Garin was the first to 5. Gurthang could have been thinking of providing cover for himself because there was no point in not voting for Garin. But this is all just a theory to keep in mind. Like Farael, I don't propose following this up at the moment.

I think the Nilpaurion question needs to be settled one way or another before we proceed on to other decisions. If things start going all pear-shaped, then we can start hashing over more outlandish theories. At the moment we have a clearer trail to investigate…although I’m not sure how much more useful there is to be said. Nilpaurion is probably not going to take this lying down whether he is guilty or innocent. That is when the real “fun” is going to begin. However, I think the case against him is pretty much made now…although the village is open to possibilities.

I think that Garin's vote for Lhuna pretty much saves her from most suspicion, yet there might be another wolf who voted for Lhuna early on. Those who voted for Lhuna were:
-Amanduial
-TGWBS
-Malkatoj

Nothing is more likely. I think this is probably the trail to follow next after the Nilp issue is settled.

As for the Seer stuff that is being bandied about…

At this moment, I’m not sure I favor the Seer coming forward even if they do have the name of a wolf. If the name they have is Nilpaurion, he stands a fair chance of getting the chop toDAY anyway. I don’t want the Seer put at risk for that when he/she would be in a position to find out another name from Nilpaurion. However, if the name is somebody else than Nilp, then Nilp’s status is still at issue and we have to find out about that anyway. The Seer can (hopefully) come forward with the name later, whether Nilp is a wolf or not.

Of course, it is also pretty likely that the Seer only has the names of innocents. This is certainly useful knowledge that I don’t particularly want, even temporarily, lost before the Apprentice could pick it up.

Obviously, the Seer will have to make the decision, but for the moment I would strongly urge caution.

[Alcarillo]

Well, the time for sleep draws ever closer in my timezone, so I feel that the best vote I can cast today is for

++Nilpaurion Felagund

[Gurthang]

Know innocents in bold; known wolf (and cobbler) is underlined.

Day 1

Azaelia - Menel (Menel-1)
Alcarillo - Garin (Menel-1, Garin-1)
Nilp - Nilp (Menel-1, Garin-1, Nilp-1)
Lhuna - Nilp (Nilp-2, Menel-1, Garin-1)
Amana - Kuru (Nilp-2, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1)
Gil-galad - Nilp (Nilp-3, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1)
malkatoj - Nilp (Nilp-4, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1)
Farael - Eluchil (Nilp-4, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1, Eluchil-1)
Naria - Nilp (Nilp-5, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1, Eluchil-1)
Rune - Gil-Galad (Nilp-5, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1, Eluchil-1, Gil-Galad-1)
TGWBS - Gil-Galad (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-2, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1, Eluchil-1)
Menel - Gil-Galad (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-3, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1, Eluchil-1)
Valier - Eluchil (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-3, Eluchil-2, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1)
Kuru - Garin (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-3, Eluchil-2, Garin-2, Menel-1, Kuru-1)
Cailín - Gil-Galad (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-4, Eluchil-2, Garin-2, Menel-1, Kuru-1)
Gurthang - Gil-Galad (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-5, Eluchil-2, Garin-2, Menel-1, Kuru-1)
Garin - Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-6, Nilp-5, Eluchil-2, Garin-2, Menel-1, Kuru-1)

No vote:
Kath
Eluchil

Day 2
Alcarillo - Cailín (Cailín-1)
Lhuna - Eluchil (Cailín-1, Eluchil-1)
Amana - Lhuna (Cailín-1, Eluchil-1, Lhuna-1)
Nilp - Cailín (Cailín-2, Eluchil-1, Lhuna-1)
Farael - Garin (Cailín-2, Eluchil-1, Lhuna-1, Garin-1)
malkatoj - Lhuna (Cailín-2, Lhuna-2, Eluchil-1, Garin-1)
Rune - Garin (Cailín-2, Lhuna-2, Garin-2, Eluchil-1)
TGWBS - Lhuna (Lhuna-3, Cailín-2, Garin-2, Eluchil-1)
Naria - Cailín (Lhuna-3, Cailín-3, Garin-2, Eluchil-1)
Azaelia - Garin (Lhuna-3, Cailín-3, Garin-3, Eluchil-1)
Cailín - Eluchil (Lhuna-3, Cailín-3, Garin-3, Eluchil-2)
Valier - Garin (Garin-4, Lhuna-3, Cailín-3, Eluchil-2)
Kuru - Garin (Garin-5, Lhuna-3, Cailín-3, Eluchil-2)
Garin - Lhuna (Garin-5, Lhuna-4, Cailín-3, Eluchil-2)
Gurthang - Garin (Garin-6, Lhuna-4, Cailín-3, Eluchil-2)

No vote:
Eluchil
Farael

Day 3
Alcarillo - Nilp (Nilp-1)

I believe that that is all correct. Please inform me if it isn't.

Just to remind you, Farael, you didn't vote yesterDay, so you must do so toDay. We cannot afford a repeat performance of yesterDay.

(So much for half an hour... more like twice that.)

Analysis coming soon.

[Gurthang]

Whoa! My mistake!

Farael, you did vote yesterday.

It was Meneltarmacil who missed the vote. Menel please vote toDay or we will lose you. (Unless you are a wolf, then go ahead and don't vote. )

So the lists are still correct, except for the 'No vote:' after Day 2.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Kuru

At this moment, I’m not sure I favor the Seer coming forward even if they do have the name of a wolf. If the name they have is Nilpaurion, he stands a fair chance of getting the chop toDAY anyway. I don’t want the Seer put at risk for that when he/she would be in a position to find out another name from Nilpaurion. However, if the name is somebody else than Nilp, then Nilp’s status is still at issue and we have to find out about that anyway. The Seer can (hopefully) come forward with the name later, whether Nilp is a wolf or not.

Of course, it is also pretty likely that the Seer only has the names of innocents. This is certainly useful knowledge that I don’t particularly want, even temporarily, lost before the Apprentice could pick it up.

Obviously, the Seer will have to make the decision, but for the moment I would strongly urge caution.

Of course the Seer is the one to decide, but I was putting forward my theory specially in case we happen to have someone acting as the seer who is new to this.... situations. Not that I'm an expert myself. Yet my reasoning was that IF the Seer knew a werewolf he/she should come out... and obviously, if that know werewolf is Nilp, I'd wait it out this night so that I can ask him about someone else.

Having said that, I'm not sure if we should all just concentrate on Nilp as that'd mean that the werewolves can hide in the possibly massive bandwagon.... I'd suggest everyone entretains at least another theory, both to stimulate conversation and make it harder for the furry mammals with big teeth to hide among us.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Menel

My suggestion is this: Lynch Nilpaurion Felagund toDay, while having the Seer ask Garin whether Lhuna's a wolf during the Night.

Originally Posted by Alcarillo

Then the Seer, under the protection of the Ranger, asks Garin about Lhuna.

Oh, please do, Seer. For everyone's peace, dream of me and clear my name.

Besides, I'm pretty certain the Seer has enough smarts to ask Garin already; after all, what could Gil, Kath, and Eluchil tell them that would be of any real help? Odds are, as Kuru said, they were able to ask only about an innocent and not a wolf.

But I do agree with all those who say that it's best for them to hold their peace until they catch a werewolf. Hopefully when they do declare themself, the Ranger would be around to protect them for two days tops, and then have the Apprentice take their place.

I'm not very sure about this whole lynching Nilp idea. Rather let's look towards those who are under the radar, and of them I'd like to suggest scrutinizing malkatoj, Naria, and the guy who be short.

I'll be posting a Naria analysis shortly. If anyone would, please do the same for the other two, or for someone else.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Naria, post 115

[tgwbs] My, my aren't we a little bold. It seems to be a bit abrupt to be away from the meeting for so long and come in with tail feathers all ruffled. Why are you so defensive for Nilp? I'm not accusing you of anything,but it seems to me like you are trying to keep us away from something you may know...hmmm like a wolf maybe.

That being said I will cast my vote:
++ Nilpaurion Felagund

It is a little more than suspicious to me for him to be jumping into the fire like he did.

Am I the only one who finds this post scarily odd? There's just something about that non-commital suspicion of tgwbs that sent a chill down my spine.

Originally Posted by Naria, post 158

I thought their sudden votes to be extremely suspicious. I was accused of jumping on a bandwagon and not having a good enough reason for my vote. Then those same people(except for Farael) turned around and made their own bandwagon and for no apparent good reason they all voted for someone that I thought really didn't attract too much attention to himself(with the one post). *tisk tisk* Poor Gil-Galad.

I'm assuming that this is going to attract some kind of attention for myself beit good or bad, but I thought I should get that out there. That being said I don't know at this point whom I'm going to vote for as of yet for the day has only just begun.

Cailin and Meneltarmacil are getting kind of cozy in their big furry coats. Maybe one is the Alpha Female and the other is the Alpha Male.....hmmmm

I don't know about all of you, but there's something fishy about this post.

1. First paragraph she tries to wriggle out of the suspicion initially cast upon her and other Nilp-voters, then suspects the Gil-voters in return. I sense too much handwashing in this post, it's eerie.

Well, she did say that she knows she would be attracting suspicion for saying so, but that could be a bluff. She has to look helpful to survive, of course. Only she didn't seem to be quite helpful enough, not that I blame her (partly because I was worse than her that Day).

2. The mention of Cailin and Menel is just too self-clearing a frontal attack. Throw in two names in a curt accusation and you're already a big help to the village. Especially effective when you think you've attracted too much suspicion on yourself.

Originally Posted by Naria, post 210

hehehe....at least we're all trying to find out who the ww are and not doing too much bickering(says with sarcasm).

Cailin stands out the most for me. She has consistentley posted after someone has said somthing about her with great defense. And, at least it seems to me, she is always trying to get the spotlight off of her and onto somebody else and noone in particular I might add. Quite the wolvish behaviour if ya ask me.

I can't really explain my vote any better than that so:

++Cailin

Ironically, Cailin's being defensive attracted her more attention. A bit illogical, if you ask me, but maybe that's just me.

Plus, as I mentioned earlier, this pushed Cailin and me to a double-tie and for the moment saved Garin.


Okay, think I'm grasping at straws if you will. Partly I'm trying to make up for my uselessness the past Days, but for the most part I'm trying to spread some light towards the more dimly lit areas of this village.

[Gurthang]

Some Random Facts:

Voted for the wolf twice:
Kuru

Voted for the wolf once:
Azaelia, Alcarillo, Farael, Rune, Valier, Gurthang

Voted for a known innocent twice:
Cailín

Voted for a known innocent once:
Farael, Rune, TGWBS, Menel, Valier, Gurthang, Garin, Lhuna

Voted for two unknowns:
Nilp, Amanaduial, malkatoj, Naria

Tie-Creators:
Alcarillo votes Garin to tie him with Menel.
Nilp votes Nilp to tie him with Garin-Menel.
Amana votes Kuru to tie him with Garin-Menel.
Farael votes Eluchil to tie him with Garin-Menel-Kuru.
Rune votes Gil-Galad to tie him with Garin-Menel-Kuru-Eluchil.
Kuru votes Garin to tie him with Eluchil.
Gurthang votes Gil-Galad to tie him with Nilp.

Lhuna votes Eluchil to tie him with Cailín.
Amana votes Lhuna to tie her with Cailín-Eluchil.
Farael votes Garin to tie him with Eluchil-Lhuna.
malkatoj votes Lhuna to tie her with Cailín.
Rune votes Garin to tie him with Cailín-Lhuna.
Naria votes Cailín to tie her with Lhuna.
Azaelia votes Garin to tie her with Lhuna-Cailín.

Tie-Breakers:
Lhuna breaks Nilp from Menel-Garin-Nilp.
TGWBS breaks Gil-Galad from Menel-Garin-Kuru-Eluchil-Gil-Galad.
Valier breaks Eluchil from Menel-Garin-Kuru-Eluchil.
Kuru breaks Garin from Menel-Garin-Kuru.
Garin breaks Gil-Galad from Nilp-Gil-Galad.

Nilp breaks Cailín from Cailín-Eluchil-Lhuna.
malkatoj breaks Lhuna from Eluchil-Lhuna-Garin.
TGWBS breaks Lhuna from Cailín-Lhuna-Garin.
Naria breaks Cailín from Cailín-Garin.
Valier breaks Garin from Lhuna-Cailín-Garin.
Garin breaks Lhuna from Lhuna-Cailín.


Actual Analysis. (aka. trying to make sense out of the above mess.)

So, to make sense, here some more lists.

It seems to me that people who either broke a tie in favor of a wolf or brought someone into a tie with a wolf would be more likely to be wolves. So, with that in mind.

Broke in favor of wolf: Lhuna, TGWBS, Valier, malkatoj, TGWBS, and Naria.
Tied someone with wolf: Nilp(although this was himself, so I don't know if that really counts), Amanaduial, Farael, and Rune.

My thoughts so far are that I see TGWBS name twice. That also makes me see that above he voted for an innocent and an unknown.

So, the opposing list, which I'll have cancel names out.

Broke against wolf: Kuru and Valier.
Tied wolf with someone: Alcarillo, Kuru, Farael, Rune, and Azaelia.

That leaves:
Lhuna
TGWBS
malkatoj
Naria
Nilp
Amanaduial

Now, I know there are innocents in that list, and I know that there are no guaranteed wolves (I'm still planning on voting for Nilpaurion, so he'll stay at 1), but those are just the facts and conclusion I came up with. Now, if I put those into order by taking into account the above random facts and when their tie-creating/breaking occurs, I'd have them like this:

1. Nilpaurion
2.TGWBS
3.Lhuna
4.Naria
5.malkatoj
6.Amanaduial

I also notice that four of the people on the list, everone except TGWBS and Lhuna, have voted for two unknowns. Yet their voting shows that they aided (by chance or intent) the wolves.

[Lhunardawen]

Hopefully my posts above are enough to explain my vote. I still hope to be back later toDay, but there's a possibility I won't be able to, so

++NARIA

Please think well before you vote, fellow villagers.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Well, I'm finally quite pleased to see you drop your presumptions of my innocence just because I always have been innocent (and suicidal) in previous games.

I'll bask in the suspicion newly returned to me, and not reply to it, if you don't mind.

I find this odd, though:

However – even though Garin has voted for Lhuna right before his death, he was already convicted by then and it might have just been a clumsy attempt to make his fellow wolf look innocent in our naive eyes. (Cai)

Is this an attempt to mislead? There was this triple cross-post (check the times of the votes of Kuru, Garin, and Gurthang) so Garin thought he was making a tie with Lhuna. Why do that? Why take a fellow Werewolf with you to the grave? A great bluff? A silly one.

Although, under Formodacil's rule:

In the event of a tie, the first person to achieve the winning number of votes will be executed. (Form)

So, this vote wouldn't have killed Lhuna. Hmmm, but was he hoping for Menel to come and vote for Lhuna (as he had been repeatedly saying)?

It seems perfectly illogical to say that I am guilty because Garin defended me (okay, so I responded to your suspicions of me; sorry, incidental) but think Lhuna guilty because Garin voted for him. ILLOGICAL!

I may seem guilty as Morgoth (and I like that), but I think you're quite crazy to think Lhuna guilty. Cai, I still think you're lupine.

I shall return to post the rest of my observations. After all, if I were a Werewolf, I'll be leaving a veritable treasure trove of information. If not, well, at least you'll see that my supporting evidence will be first-rate and worth considering.

[Cailín]

Some quick notes, I shall return shortly with some more extended views.

Lhuna, I understand your vote for Naria and she was also on my possibly suspicious list, but I felt a little more strongly about some of the others. Your case seems to hold, though, even though you think you’re grasping straws. I shall think about it.

Kuru – I think you are indeed innocent, but I’m simply a little wary of you because I know how dwarfs can be. I do not agree with your feeling concerning Gurthang, but you’re right that those who voted for Garin should not get a get-out-of-jail-free-card all of the sudden.

Amanaduial – there are two reasons I am watching you a little closer. 1) Because of your voting pattern and 2) Because you are a little confusing at times. However, since I thought you clearly innocent yesterDay, I shall probably not be voting for you.

About our two silent fellows, TGWBS and Malkatoj… I find the former most worrisome because he does not even try to analyse some and apparently does not feel guilty for not helping us out at all. But – for now, it is still early - I would be in favour of lynching either Nilpaurion or Naria today.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

A Case for Innocence

(Not for me, silly; it would be wasted keystrokes. Better make my death good though, Formodacil. Maybe something with pitchforks or trees or giant devouring spiders. )

Sorry, I lost my downloaded copy of the thread (which would have allowed me to analyse everything in the comfort of my home, instead of being harried by monetary considerations in internet cafés), so I couldn't do a proper case against someone. It would take more to convince of guilt than of innocence (for me, at least), so this is the best I could do. Hope it would suffice.

Most of the information here are based on the voting (and the resulting lynching of a Werewolf) that happened yesterDAY (qv. Appendix below).

Lhunardawen

I am almost completely sure of her innocence. Most of my arguments can be seen in post 258. Also, I realised that her vote for me DAY 1 (which made me initially suspicious of her) was simply her seeing what some of you failed to see: Dice don't have memory, and neither do WW role assignments.

Valier

Rune Son of Bjarne

If either of these two were werewolves, they're very bold and smart (or the werewolves concocted an excellent sacrifice plan, although considering what the Seer could do with a dead Werewolf, it's highly unlikely.) They were the ones that gave impetus to the Garin bandwaggon.

Gurthang

He suggested quite a good plan early in the game, usually a good sign of a thinking, helpful villager. Plus, he was the one that sealed Garin's fate.

Kuruharan

He's the one I'm least sure of. He also was the vote that killed Garin, although, being more experienced, it could have been part of a Werewolvish plan. (He said in 222 that he was monitoring the thread while posting, which suggests he knew that he'd cross-post.)

Appendix

DAY 2 votes with voting times (GMT). Possible cross-posts in groups.

05:55 Alcarillo- Cailín (Cailín 1)

08:47 Lhuna - Eluchíl (Cailín 1 - Eluchíl 1)

10:49 Amanaduial - Lhuna (Cailín 1 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 1)

13:13 Nilp - Cailín (Cailín 2 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 1)

19:22 Farael- Garin (Cailín 2 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 1 - Garin 1)

19:50 malkatoj - Lhuna (Cailín 2 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 2 - Garin 1)

20:16 Rune - Garin (Cailín 2 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 2 - Garin 2)

20:30 TGWBS - Lhuna (Cailín 2 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 2)

21:39 Naria - Cailín (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 2)

21:46 Azaelia - Garin (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 3)
21:47 Cailín - Eluchíl (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 2 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 3)
21:50 Valier - Garin (Cailín 3- Eluchíl 2 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 4)

21:58 Kuruharan - Garin (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 2 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 5)
21:58 Garin - Lhuna (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 2 - Lhuna 4 - Garin 5)
21:59 Gurthang - Garin (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 2 - Lhuna 4 - Garin 6)

[Lhunardawen]

...know what that means?

*lets out a giant hoooowwwl*

Did you really think you could get rid of me just like that? Once a Lhunatic, always a Lhunatic - but this time I'll be more kind and just bother you on full moons.

And because of that pizza with helpfulness potion that I ate yesterDay, the scariest things you'll hear from me are a few Lhuny laughs and howls at the full moon.

*laughs Insanely*

Originally Posted by Cailin

About our two silent fellows, TGWBS and Malkatoj… I find the former most worrisome because he does not even try to analyse some and apparently does not feel guilty for not helping us out at all.

If anything I agree with you, dear, especially concerning tgwbs. I mean, he used to be all talkative and all, casting suspicions around and almost getting himself lynched with his talkativeness. What's with the attitude change? Uncertain how to conceal his lupine traits?

*cackles* --> That's a new thing I learned from my long disappearance.

Anyways, that innocent list of Nilp's is very interesting. I should say we share a lot of similar opinions, and that makes me believe in his innocence more. Unless I'm the unfortunately gullible Estel to his Eomer, if you get my drift. *giggles*

Oh, and don't worry, I remain perfectly capable of creating those pizzas you so love, only now I have new potions available. There's this new Lhunacy potion pizza, if you want to howl as beautifully as I do.

*howls at the full moon*

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Don't worry, my dagang sister, you don't need to say I'm innocent. They'll just say we're in league and lynch us side by side (if that's possible. )

This might be my last post in this here game, so I'd like to thank you, Farael, for you seem to see things in a better way.

And . . . My fair village, watch out for Alcarillo!

[Cailín]

Well, that took a little longer than I had expected.

I basically agree with your cases for innocents Nilp, though I had Alcarillo added to the list because I am quite convinced a wolf wouldn’t start Day 1 with a vote on another wolf. Of course, I could be wrong, but if I were Garin I would have been seriously ****ed off, especially since Alcarillo was not the only one to question Garin’s behaviour (rightly, we know now). Your list makes me doubt your guilt again, but I still think that lynching you might be a good idea, for you’re bound to confuse us all to no end anyway.

Your voting analysis is very helpful Gurthang, thanks. I’d say voting looks especially bad for Naria, but that’s only because I am a known innocent to myself.

I’m by now pretty convinced that Lhuna is innocent. Even though I had not previously considered this, Garin might be thinking to save himself or enforce a double lynching by his last minute vote for the lunatic. Since the rules for double lynching were sort of confusing for a while, I find it quite easy to believe Garin misunderstood. However, I don’t underestimate the ex-wolf and deep down I still have some doubts.

About the whole Seer thing… it worries me a little. I would suggest the Seer does not come forth unless he / she has crucial information. On the other hand, we still have an Apprentice and a Ranger as well, but the more people die, the likelier it becomes that the wolves pick out one of our Gifteds and so we cannot count on that strategy – the one Gurthang proposed on Day 1 - working anymore. Even if the Ranger defends the Seer, we might lose the Ranger or the Apprentice and with that a very valuable player. I suggest the Seer continues to lay low for today, unless he / she is certain we have the game in the bag. ;-)

Edit: had not expected anyone to post at this hour, so I cross-posted with Nilp's final dramatic message. Wonder what you mean about Alcarillo, though.

[Lhunardawen]

Oh look, Nilp defended me! This must mean we're in cahoots!

*laughs*

But please, I implore you, I think the lycans are cackling to themselves right now because they manage to hide beneath the radar while we innocents argue. Think of the polar ice caps!

*guffaws maniacally*

I'm still all in favor of looking towards the creepily silent ones, because we never know if they are silently planning to devour each of us. Creepily, of course. And with all of you eating my fabulous pizzas, I'm pretty sure we all taste darn good.

*howls at the moon yet again*

[Cailín]

...

You know, maybe double lynching you two would not be such a bad plan after all. This 'timezone' disease is having some interesting lupine side effects, I observe.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Cailín

...

You know, maybe double lynching you two would not be such a bad plan after all. This 'timezone' disease is having some interesting lupine side effects, I observe.

*laughs coyly* Believe me, I had no idea timezones could come out like that. I've had this for quite some time now...punny, eh?

But won't you even just let the Seer dream of me, as Alcarillo and Menel previously proposed? Aww, poor little me...

But of course, the Seer should not be wasting dreams on obvious innocents like me. After all, we have werewolves to catch lest we all want to turn into their Full Moon feast.

*howls*

[Lhunardawen]

Well, the night is getting deeper over here in the land of the timezone-afflicted people, and I still have some more howling to do. We have to keep our voice in shape after all.

See you all tomorrow, and the Seer toNight in my dreams...if they will.

Don't let the werewolves bite!

*howls*

[malkatoj]

And even on a weekend, I've got school things to do, so I'll be posting my vote. I may get on again later today, but no guarantees.

I said earlier that I'd probably vote for TGWBS unless something swayed me otherwise. Well, after looking over the thread, he still hasn't posted at all and I'm inclined to believe he's waiting to jump the bandwagon again.

++TGWBS

[the guy who be short]

Hmmm. Accused lots, eh? For not saying much, eh? *Points away at explanation somewhere near the beginning* For unexplained votes, eh? *Points at eyeglasses*

I'm unable to return toDay, so I must vote now. And right now, the person I'm least trusting of is... Kuruharan.

But Kuru voted for a Wolf twice! you undoubtably cry.

And that's what disconcerts me. He's ruthless enough and cunning enough to kill Garin off first, then assuming an air of innocence. His rationale is too rational. Pu simply, I don't trust his intellect.

++Kuru

So I've probably signed my death sentence with the vote. Look at him when I'm gone.

[Valier]

Like I said my earlier,exuse my hasty vote.I have school all day today and I won't be back till after the vote.My suspision of Nilp still stands..for now.I think the best course of action would be to lynch Nilp now then have the seer look into another villager this evening.maybe killing two wolves with one stone.

Hope we get a wolf tonight ,but if not...hopefully this will open more doors,towards finding the last lone wolf(implying we lynch one today)

++Nilpaurion Felagund

See you all later!Happy wolf hunting!

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Hey I just wantet to say that I am here now and should be able to check the thread until the deadline (I will check every 30-40 min. I my friends will allow it)

I have read your posts and for the moment I have nothing to add, but this: You have made my brain hurt! It will likely be a late vote frome my side

[Kuruharan]

Nice to see everyone is behaving rationally.

I'm not sure if we should all just concentrate on Nilp as that'd mean that the werewolves can hide in the possibly massive bandwagon.... I'd suggest everyone entretains at least another theory, both to stimulate conversation and make it harder for the furry mammals with big teeth to hide among us.

While I agree this idea has some merit, I think the dangers of werewolves being able to escape and manipulate the vote when everybody gets involved in a lively squabble over their pet theories are at least as great. At this moment, this could perhaps be more unfortunate for us. I once heard tell of a village that came to ruin because the villagers persistently refused to deal with the obvious issues in front of them and squandered their time by obsessively chasing obscure theories down rabbit holes. By the time they got around to dealing with the obvious problem it was a little bit too late.

I think at this moment focus is critical, even if werewolves get lost in the voting a bit (which is a little harder for them now because we can go back and look at prior evidence). We don’t want to have this hanging over our heads, because it is never going to go away.

It seems perfectly illogical to say that I am guilty because Garin defended me
-Nilpaurion

It is not only that he defended you. It is that he rather oddly mentioned your name in his first post, and then unquestioningly defended you afterwards. This behavior toward a person by a wolf is enough to provoke serious questions.

All the above being said, I’m suddenly consumed with doubts about Nilp’s guilt. Unfortunately, I now have a theory that involves a couple of other people, but the only way I can think of to reliably test it is by killing Nilp even if he is innocent. Even if he is innocent I think it will tell us a lot about some other people. However, killing an innocent is always a bit of a problem…

And that's what disconcerts me. He's ruthless enough and cunning enough to kill Garin off first, then assuming an air of innocence. His rationale is too rational. Pu simply, I don't trust his intellect.

Oh, please…we have gone over this already. I can’t believe I have to waste more time on this, but let me expound on this at length. I am the one person here (while it is certainly something that would occur to me) that would be utterly incapable of actually pulling this off. My remaining associate would probably denounce me because they, not being able to trust me anymore (especially because I’d voted for my fellow wolf two DAYs in a row), would think they could win a solo victory. I wouldn’t have a prayer of saving myself because everybody would believe my associate and nobody would believe me (and the only way I could save myself is by turning on my “comrade.”) Basically, the werewolf side would be toast because people would cease trusting my "buddy" and ultimately turn on him/her when they later kept failing to find a wolf.

While it is all very flattering, to be sure, to be seen as this capable and devious, one also has to take it into account when one is thinking what it is and is not possible for me to do. Being permanently branded as “devious” is actually very hamstringing. You have to take this into account when theory building by asking yourself, “Could this person actually be able to do this and be believable while doing it?” The answer in my case is “No.” I couldn’t do it even if I were a wolf and wanted to. But I’m not a wolf so I couldn’t do it anyway.

TGWBS has suddenly returned himself (you will recall that he was one of my original suspects) to my “Passionately Desire to Kill” list. However, for the moment I’d still rather vote for Nilp.

But there is still plenty of time.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I will be not be saying much today as I am generaly confused and you have all done a very good job analyzing.

Nilpsurely could bee a wolf, but it could allso be that both Gil and Nilp is innocent and Garin just votet for one of them. (thus killing a innocent and framing an innocent) No mather how much I want to belive in his innocens I must admit that his death would give us answers.

TGWBS is kind of scary. He has avoided making him self seen in any real debate, just a bit to neutral for my taste. This could be a coinsedence. I dont know.

Luhna: What was that all about !? For the first time ever I acctually belive that I would have to vote for you at some point.

I still suspect Menel and Malkatoj the latter might get my vote to day, but I really dont know.

I really have no clue about Kuru, I guess I will have to vait and see.

and I know belive Valier to be innocent!

That is all for now. . .

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

But Kuru voted for a Wolf twice! you undoubtably cry.

And that's what disconcerts me. He's ruthless enough and cunning enough to kill Garin off first, then assuming an air of innocence. His rationale is too rational. Pu simply, I don't trust his intellect.

Yes, I was sort of thinking the same. And Kuru saying he couldn't pull it off just doesn't put the suspicion out of my mind. Still, I have many people to think on before him.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

All the above being said, I’m suddenly consumed with doubts about Nilp’s guilt. Unfortunately, I now have a theory that involves a couple of other people, but the only way I can think of to reliably test it is by killing Nilp even if he is innocent. Even if he is innocent I think it will tell us a lot about some other people. However, killing an innocent is always a bit of a problem…

Yeah, I agree. I think Nilp's death will answer questions. I really hope he's a wolf, but regardless, it might clear a lot up. Still, we might be losing an innocent, and yet, I've got no one I'd rather vote for.

We've had a few votes so far:

Acarillo - Nilp (Nilp-1)
Lhuna - Naria (Nilp-1, Naria-1)
malkatoj - TGWBS (Nilp-1, Naria-1, TGWBS-1)
TGWBS - Kuru (Nilp-1, Naria-1, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1)
Valier - Nilp (Nilp-2, Naria-1, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1)

[Meneltarmacil]

As I doubt more will be revealed later in the Day, I'll vote now for

++Nilpaurion Felagund

*heh heh* Maybe he is the world's boldest wolf after all. Arooooooo!

[Meneltarmacil]

Keep in mind that not only does the Seer have some innocents known, but the Ranger knows that the one he/she protected earlier toDay is innocent.

[Kuruharan]

Yes, I was sort of thinking the same. And Kuru saying he couldn't pull it off just doesn't put the suspicion out of my mind.

And you prove my point.

We have a rather sizable block of people who have not said much, or anything, toDAY. We’ve only got a few hours left. I was hoping for more in the way of constructive conversation.

[Gurthang]

I don't know. I don't really have much more to say at the moment. I've done my voting analysis, but I've pretty much decided on Nilp for toDay, so I want to wait and see where we should go from there. But you are right, it has been rather quiet recently.

Although I do find Lhuna's sudden burst of Lhunatic-itis rather strange. Maybe it's because we actually got it right (that her and Nilp are wolves) so she's having some fun before the game's over.

Menel, I'm glad to see you voted, thus making sure you won't die toDay for not.

[Farael]

Well, Nilp has made an interesting case for his innocense by not arguing towards it at all. It might be a complicated bluff but even if it is not, I'm afraid I shall cast my vote now, taking into account what I said before on the day.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

I'm afraid that his words have not quite calmed my suspicions completely.

[Cailín]

(I am not sure if it was just me, but the BD forums did not work for me for a large part of the day, which somewhat explains my silence)

On the other hand, I feel I have little to add to the discussion right now and would really like to hear from some other people – Naria in particular. We shall not hear again from Lhuna or Nilp for toDay and I am quite certain Nilpaurion is going to die tonight. His death will tell us more and I hope that toNight’s events may clear things up a little, too.

Now there are a few things that are rather worrisome:

1) Lhuna's behaviour in her final posts toDay. Where did the sudden change come from? I hardly believe she thought it was game over for her, her prospects were not looking too grim at all. I think she was just having a bit of random fun, though admittedly very suspicious and not much helpful fun. I’d say she was the Cobbler if the Cobbler were not dead already.
2) Kuruharan and TGWBS. Now TGWBS posts one dramatic, little helpful post in which he votes for Kuru. He seems quite certain he will not survive the Day. Now why would that be? Also, Kuru, I wish to believe you but with every post you write in your defense I am again reminded of your shrewdness and intelligence, which are apparently working against you right now. I have a hard time believing you’re incapable of doing anything. However I am not going to be concerned with or about you toDay.
3) There are four votes for Nilp by now. I’m pretty sure there is a lupine among the voters and I hope that everyone will be smart enough not to place too much weight on toDay’s voting, since the outcome seemed pretty fixed from my first post.

I cannot really think of other things to say right now so I hope there are more different people who have anything to add to the discussion, though I highly doubt it.