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Old 10-31-2016, 05:37 AM   #161
Inziladun
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Well, if the Herbalist is at the end of the herbs, it's down to Bard to save.

In light of that distinct possibility, I still think lynching should start now.
If there's no counter to Kuru's Breath claim, there are obviously better picks than he.
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Old 10-31-2016, 05:59 AM   #162
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Originally Posted by Kuruharan View Post
We probably need to assume the worst case scenario and assume that McCaber was an ordo.
That should be the basic approach.

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Originally Posted by Kuruharan View Post
Now Nerwen is confirmed as having been one. I don't think I will be able to do a numbers post tonight (I will tomorrow, which is still part of toNIGHT ) but we may have reached a point where we are going to have to try some lynches. Something I did not want to say before now is that lynches are not just a tool of the village, they are also a tool of the wolves and we are now in a precarious position. If we do lynch toDAY we need to do it right.
Indeed, that is the biggest problem I see here. It would probably still be possible to wait things out if we still have the Gifteds around (I think at least we could rule out the possibility of Nerwen being the Herbalist, since the rules say "they are allowed to treat themselves" - unless she had only one power to use, but really, I don't believe the role would be that useless. Same thing also goes for Cab, unless Lottie has been a Wolf all along, because somebody had to heal her). There are eight of us, so probably three Wolves and five innocents. If we lynch well, it will go much better, if not, then so much worse, of course. But I think in any case, it's about time we started trying to make sense of who might be a Wolf.

That's why, incidentally, I think people should say whom they would like to see lynched as soon as possible (can of course change later. But maybe we should agree on a pre-deadline for that kind of voting, say ten hours from now, so that a Rep can be chosen afterwards? Or, of course, if we choose a trustworthy Rep early enough - I would not be opposed to choosing Lottie again, btw - and if that Rep then promises to pass on the vote of the majority, it would work as well? And maybe that would even be better?).

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The question I think we should start off asking ourselves is why did the wolves target Lottie and Nerwen first? Are the wolves people who would feel particularly threatened by them in some way?
I think that should be the thing to do now, because that is literally the only evidence we have about how the Wolves might think. With Lottie however, I think the selection would be rather arbitrary - given that it had to happen on Night 1, i.e. before the game even started. I would assume they'd simply pick someone whom they thought was not likely to be protected by the Bard, i.e. not too "obvious" target, but also not too "unobvious"... I think Lottie fits the bill.

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I think a lynch needs to happen at this point. The odds are at least better now of striking evil.
Just as a remark, I am uncomfortable with that rhetoric. "Must" and "evil" sound very zealous, which would be a nice guise for a WW.

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This statement has a bit of an Captain Obvious air though, like evil trying to look nice and helpful.
I was actually thinking the same. However, I am thinking also another thing - that Inzil seems to be very happy now that Nerwen, whom he suspected yesterDay, died, to start immediately quite aggressively question Kuru.

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Maybe Nerwen gave off Gifted vibes? That's the only reason I can come up with.
I guess that would be the main thing the WWs would go after. But the question would be, what kind of vibes? I must say it crossed my mind yesterDay morning that she might be Gifted since she shouted "woe is me, we will ALL die" as opposed to something that would concern only herself, but that was after she had already been targeted, so that would not qualify as a reason for the WWs. And apparently (or hopefully) that was misinterpretation anyway.
Also, the thing about this game is that if somebody gave too obvious vibes, they would likely not be targeted because the WWs would have a good reason to assume the Bard might notice as well and they might be protected. Nonetheless, there would probably be reasons why her and not somebody else.

...ok, I actually wanted to look through her posts later, but now did it even before finishing this post, so: the general feel from Nerwen's Day 1 posts is that she probably just looked innocent and helpful. Because she really does not say very much most of the time, and most of all, she is not really in a conflict with anybody. So that does not really seem like there would be traces to anyone, positive or negative, before the WWs picked her. Afterwards, the Day 2 is of course more dynamic, but that is a completely different cup of tea.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil
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Old 10-31-2016, 06:21 AM   #163
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I think people should say whom they would like to see lynched as soon as possible (can of course change later. But maybe we should agree on a pre-deadline for that kind of voting, say ten hours from now, so that a Rep can be chosen afterwards? Or, of course, if we choose a trustworthy Rep early enough - I would not be opposed to choosing Lottie again, btw - and if that Rep then promises to pass on the vote of the majority, it would work as well? And maybe that would even be better?).
I would go with Lottie again as rep.

As for lynch choices, I would say no for Legate and Kuru (unless his Breath claim is challenged).

Based on that, and the fact that it's hard to see Lalaith as a Conspirator, I would put the lynch for Boro, Lommy, or Shasta in that order.

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Just as a remark, I am uncomfortable with that rhetoric. "Must" and "evil" sound very zealous, which would be a nice guise for a WW.
I had a reason for putting it that way. For the moment I'm leaving it at that.

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I was actually thinking the same. However, I am thinking also another thing - that Inzil seems to be very happy now that Nerwen, whom he suspected yesterDay, died, to start immediately quite aggressively question Kuru.
I was disappointed that the only one I had any strong negative feel for wasn't evil. Aside from that, crowing over her demise would have been recklessly stupid were I a Conspirator.
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Old 10-31-2016, 07:14 AM   #164
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Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
I don't think the Herbalist has any saves left.
Just a quick chime in before I go to work but I don't think this can be correct.

This is only DAY THREE. We've had one confirmed save. The way the rules read it strongly implies that the Herbalist has multiple saves. Now Sally could be yanking our chain in some way, but that seems an odd way to do it. That's the sort of thing people might be angry about after the game rather than thinking is a good joke and I don't think Sally would do something like that.

I would also like to note that this is exactly the sort of post that is bugging me about Shasta this game. Almost everything he says seems to have an unduly pessimistic slant.
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Old 10-31-2016, 08:45 AM   #165
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Based on that, and the fact that it's hard to see Lalaith as a Conspirator
This just caught my eye, care to share why you think so?

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I would put the lynch for Boro, Lommy, or Shasta in that order.
Actually, whereas I have my uneasiness about Inzil, there is something to this as well. For example in regards to Boro, I have had similar vibes from him, and at least Inzil is talking and contributive and all. Whereas Boro is just sitting somewhere and not speaking at all. Also as a general thought, I would not be surprised to have at least a couple silent WWs (although I still think at least in the previous few Days, the village's plan of seemingly not lynching and just waiting it out would rather have forced them out to be active, methinks. That is, if I go back, also the reason why I am partly suspicious of Inzil being rather vocal on lynching. On the other hand, pushing a lynch would really make sense for the WWs only in case they weren't threatened (!) - important note).

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Originally Posted by Inziladun View Post
I was disappointed that the only one I had any strong negative feel for wasn't evil.
Understood. I can imagine that; having experienced similar situation in many games.

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Originally Posted by Kuruharan View Post
I would also like to note that this is exactly the sort of post that is bugging me about Shasta this game. Almost everything he says seems to have an unduly pessimistic slant.
Well, I think there is a certain generic approach Shasta has like this, almost always. Speaking of generic approaches however, where his proverbial psychic powers are in this game?
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Old 10-31-2016, 08:58 AM   #166
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Here is the latest run of numbers on a no-lynch scenario, discounting any saves.

DAY ONE
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY TWO
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY THREE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen

DAY FOUR
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3

DAY FIVE
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4

DAY SIX
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5

Now, my belief is we still have a few saves left in the can...at least I sure hope so.

That being said, I think we have reached the point where serious consideration has to be given to lynching.

I also want to say right now that I think Legate or Lottie are the only viable choices for Representative toDAY.

Player analysis post to come.
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Old 10-31-2016, 09:59 AM   #167
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Boots Analysis Post

Welp...here goes.

KNOWN/LIKELY INNOCENT
Kuru
Legate
Lottie

UNKNOWN
Boro
Inzil
Lalaith
Lommy
Shasta

Somewhere amongst those bottom five I am convinced we have our three wolves.

Boro
I don’t know what to make of Boro. His play in this game has been noticeably odd. He has been so noticeably odd, in fact, that it tends to make me think he is innocent. I would think a wolf, even a highly distracted and busy one, would make more of an effort to appear more normal and helpful.

CONCLUSION FOR THE MOMENT: He is in danger of modfire if he doesn’t vote toDAY. I don’t think he should be a lynch priority.

Inzil
Inzil continues to rub me the wrong way while at the same time doing and saying some helpful things. He is, quite possibly, the most enigmatic player in the game right now. I could easily see him as a wolf but I can also easily see him as an ordo.

CONCLUSION FOR THE MOMENT: He might be a good lynch target…but for the time being I’d really rather not…and I will get to why in a minute.

Lalaith
DAY TWO she was still giving the impression of being helpful…without actually being helpful. While she seems ordoish my spidey-sense is going crazy about her. She always seems to me to be the sort of player whose level of seeming harmlessness and level of actual dangerousness share the exact same progression.

She got a negative strike in my book yesterDAY for suggesting we lynch McCaber because he might be modfired.

CONCLUSION: She might be a wolf. Not sure she’s the best lynch target, but she definitely might be a wolf.

Lommy
I don’t feel as good about Lommy after yesterDAY. She seems a bit too wishy-washy and trying to go with the flow for my mental comfort.

In Post 105 she says she wants more suspicions going around…which superficially seems like a good thing, except suspicions flying around is exactly the circumstance needed by wolves for them to manipulate lynches and at the time the Ward was trying to not lynch people.

In Post 138 she defends Lalaith a bit more strenuously than necessary to my mind. This post and Lalaith’s general behavior are two things that make me uncomfortable about Lalaith and consequently about Lommy. And I am also uncomfortable with her analysis of Shasta but I can’t really put much of a finger on it other than it just sounds like wolf defending wolf to me.

She’s also a bit crosswise with Inzil. And this is why I’m unsure about suggesting Inzil as a lynch target. Is it the sort of squabbling that suggests they are unlikely pack mates or is it the sort of squabbling that suggests they are trying to fan the public flames of rivalry too keep the heat off one or the other of them? She seems to have gone after Inzil more than Inzil has gone after her.

In this game format, is there any benefit to this sort of public wolf on wolf? I really don’t think so…but I might be wrong.

So, given that I feel worse about Lommy this makes me feel better about Inzil. But I could be totally wrong and they could be in it together.

However, I think the odds are one or the other of them has to be bad. I have a hard time believing that both of these 2 are our 2 remaining Innocents in the 5 Unknowns.

CONCLUSION: Unsure. Could well be a wolf…but might not be.

Shasta
I have a feeling that my opinions on this are going to be controversial.

On DAY ONE his first substantive post was about suppressing information.

Also on DAY ONE He defended Inzil, which could potentially be suspicious.

YesterDAY he was substantively absent.

ToDAY he starts off with a post that I think is far too pessimistic for the situation and seems designed to encourage defeatism.

Now for the controversial part…I think the attack on Nerwen points at him. Nerwen was not particularly forward in discussing plans or ideas on DAY ONE and yet she was the first person struck after the game got underway. That’s been bothering me. Why was that? Nerwen herself seemed puzzled by it.

They have a lot of familiarity with each other and if anybody would be able to smoke him out quickly if he was bad it would be her. Shasta might have feared this and persuaded his packmates that Nerwen had to be the priority to eliminate. Also, his relative absence while Nerwen was still in the game makes me uneasy about him on this point.

CONCLUSION: I might be completely off base on this one. I admit that, and am certainly open to discussion and persuasion on this, but out of all the players in the game right now, I feel worst about him.
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Old 10-31-2016, 10:07 AM   #168
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This just caught my eye, care to share why you think so?
I guess it's just that she hasn't been very involved. That could also be said for the ones I said I would consider for a lynch.
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Old 10-31-2016, 10:08 AM   #169
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First off, I regret to inform you that I will be even less available than I had hoped toDay. It turns out tonight is going to be the only clear night all week, so I have to run an observing session for the class I'm TAing - which means I will have to leave an hour before DL, and won't have as much time in between classes as I thought I might.

Since I don't know how much I'll be on, I will say that I do think we need to start lynching - the numbers for the passive scenario are no longer in our favor, so we need to start making moves. If I had to vote for someone to lynch toDay, I would say ++Lommy. I don't think Boro is playing very wolf-like - he's playing a lot quieter than usual, that's for sure, but when he's a wolf, I'm pretty sure he tends to be a louder, more aggressive wolf, not a quieter one. I wouldn't go for a lynch on him just based on him being quiet so far. Similarly with Shasta - I just don't think we have enough on him yet, and what I have seen doesn't strike me as being too far off the norm for him.

Lalaith and Zil I am concerned about, but I think my suspicion of Lommy is the more concrete of the three. Her tone in general has felt like she's trying to play it cool and like she always does, and she's been jumping on suspicions (like my Nerwen idea) too readily. I would go for her if I had to choose right now.

I would be happy with Legate or maybe even Kuru for rep toDay. I see no reason thus far to distrust Kuru's claim, and Legate has seemed trustworthy all game - and I trust that both of them will not deviate very far from the will of the people.

Edit: xed with Kuru and Zil
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Old 10-31-2016, 10:17 AM   #170
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I agree with Kuru that a Lommy-Lalaith pack would make a lot of sense, with how they've interacted and how they've almost played around each other, avoiding stepping on each other's toes. I don't know that Lommy and Zil are likely packmates - they both jumped on my Nerwen idea, and I think were the two loudest supporters of it, and I think if they were packmates they would have tried to split their forces rather than throwing all of their wolves into the same basket. That would leave either Shasta or Boro as the third packmate, and I am inclined to say it would be Shasta, since I don't think a Borowolf would be playing as quietly as he has been thus far.

(Also I keep imaging what would happen if Kuru and Legate were wolves, and it remains a horrifying thought. If you two are wolves, massive kudos, guys. )
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Old 10-31-2016, 10:20 AM   #171
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(Also I keep imaging what would happen if Kuru and Legate were wolves, and it remains a horrifying thought. If you two are wolves, massive kudos, guys. )
Right back at you. If you and Legate are wolves I will take my hat off to both of you any day of the week.
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Old 10-31-2016, 10:27 AM   #172
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I would be happy with Legate or maybe even Kuru for rep toDay. I see no reason thus far to distrust Kuru's claim, and Legate has seemed trustworthy all game - and I trust that both of them will not deviate very far from the will of the people.
I would also like to remove my name from consideration for Rep toDAY.

I have been smote by foul humors and the last thing we need is for somebody to counter-claim and then have a huge mess with that and having my name in the mix for Rep at the same time.
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Old 10-31-2016, 10:33 AM   #173
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I would also like to remove my name from consideration for Rep toDAY.

I have been smote by foul humors and the last thing we need is for somebody to counter-claim and then have a huge mess with that and having my name in the mix for Rep at the same time.
Yeah, that's why I said "maybe even" - I'm more than happy to trust your claim right now, but not everyone's checked in yet. Also, the wolves could have not sent in a kill last Night - we have no narration to say otherwise - so unless you die/are saved, it's always possible that you are lying. However, you were pretty trusted before you claimed to be Stricken, so you wouldn't really gain anything from lying, so I'm pretty sure you're telling the truth.
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Old 10-31-2016, 10:38 AM   #174
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Also, the wolves could have not sent in a kill last Night - we have no narration to say otherwise -
If no Breath was attempted, I can only see that as an error, rather than a deliberate act. What motive would there be to hold off?
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Old 10-31-2016, 10:45 AM   #175
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If no Breath was attempted, I can only see that as an error, rather than a deliberate act. What motive would there be to hold off?
If no one was afflicted by the Black Breath, a wolf can claim that they were afflicted, and there will be no counter claim. The next day, they can say that the Herbalist must have saved them, and so long as the narration doesn't contradict that, there is no reason not to believe them - and we would think they were a known innocent. I don't think this is the case with Kuru, since he was pretty trusted yesterDay, so there would be no reason for him to try to cement his status as an innocent by pretending to be afflicted. Therefore, I am pretty confident that he's telling the truth about his brush with the Black Breath.
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Old 10-31-2016, 10:59 AM   #176
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I guess it's just that she hasn't been very involved. That could also be said for the ones I said I would consider for a lynch.
Wait, now that confuses me - because you said you can't see her as Conspirator, but it is because of reasons which, in case of others, don't cause the same conclusion? ??
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First off, I regret to inform you that I will be even less available than I had hoped toDay. It turns out tonight is going to be the only clear night all week, so I have to run an observing session for the class I'm TAing - which means I will have to leave an hour before DL, and won't have as much time in between classes as I thought I might.
But you will be able to send in a lynch vote during the Night, if we elect you so?


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Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
Since I don't know how much I'll be on, I will say that I do think we need to start lynching - the numbers for the passive scenario are no longer in our favor,
Basically agreed, but just a remark with looking at Kuru's numbers - if we still get at least one more save (and have living Gifteds, of course), it is still possible for us to win by the numbers (since if the numbers are equal, the village still wins). I don't however mind lynching toDay. We should, like Nerwen had said, review on Day-to-Day basis.

The problem might be if, like Kuru said, Boro is really at risk of being modfired. That is something we don't really need at all. But we shall see. There are still several Days ahead of us.

I would be okay with the lynch being either of those names that have been brought up - Lalaith, on review, really strikes me as a possibility of a quiet Wolf. Zil concerns me, but like I said earlier, at least he is active. About Lommy it is hard to say. I would not dramatically object to it, because it is a possibility. Maybe I would prefer others. In any case I would hope to see her and Lal (and others, like Boro and Shasta) to post soon.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuruharan View Post
I would also like to remove my name from consideration for Rep toDAY.

I have been smote by foul humors and the last thing we need is for somebody to counter-claim and then have a huge mess with that and having my name in the mix for Rep at the same time.
Reasonable point, even though I don't think it very likely. (Btw if this is all a scheme to gain our trust, what a scheme.)

EDIT: x-ed after Kuru's post
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Old 10-31-2016, 11:14 AM   #177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
But you will be able to send in a lynch vote during the Night, if we elect you so?
Yes, I just won't be around *at* the deadline.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
I would be okay with the lynch being either of those names that have been brought up - Lalaith, on review, really strikes me as a possibility of a quiet Wolf. Zil concerns me, but like I said earlier, at least he is active. About Lommy it is hard to say. I would not dramatically object to it, because it is a possibility. Maybe I would prefer others. In any case I would hope to see her and Lal (and others, like Boro and Shasta) to post soon.
I would be okay with Lalaith, if that's what people agree on. I would prefer Lommy, but I find it highly likely that they are packmates, so I think we probably will end up needing to lynch both eventually.
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Old 10-31-2016, 11:16 AM   #178
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I would like to ask everyone, if at all possible, to post a player analysis some time in the near future and not wait until the tail end of the DAY to do so...or fail to do player analysis at all.

We know there are Innocents in the Unknown column so please be helpful and share your thoughts. If we lynch toDAY we need to do our best to make sure we get it right.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but for the Unknown Innocents it is in your own self-interest to do so.
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Old 10-31-2016, 11:30 AM   #179
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Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Wait, now that confuses me - because you said you can't see her as Conspirator, but it is because of reasons which, in case of others, don't cause the same conclusion? ??
Well, she has also expressed some confusion about the roles similar to what I've felt, though admittedly that could be a ploy. I'd think though a baddie might not appear so 'at sea'.
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Old 10-31-2016, 11:39 AM   #180
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Sorry, work and differing time zones have necessitated a late arrival toDay .But anyway, I’ve been thinking about our no-shows and the effect they might have had on game play.
Quote:
I agree that the assumption should be Cab was innocent.
Kuru

Yes, that’s been an assumption lots of people have made, but then I got thinking, what if he'd been a wolf? I remembered someone had thought there were just two wolves - I went back and checked, and it was Legate . So then I thought, lets say McCaber was a wolf who hadn’t showed up – might this be a slip from a fellow wolf who knew they were only two around?
I know he's a top-grade player and so unlikely have made such a careless slip were he a wolf. But you never know. Legate seems to be very widely trusted at the moment. I know he carried out the will of the village on the first day and I do think he appears very helpful, but I don’t want to trust him blindly - I personally would much prefer Lottie as representative.

Then there’s our current sick patient, Kuru. No-one has come forward to counterclaim against him, but might the no-show of Boro yesterday tempt the wolves to risk breathing on him (Boro I mean) and then sending one of their number in to make a false claim? There is no reason that the wolves might not assume what most of the rest of us did, that Nerwen would be saved by the herbalist last night, in which case their situation would be getting desperate and they’d be prepared to take risks in order to get a kill.
An appearance by Boro himself would therefore be very welcome for a number of reasons.
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Old 10-31-2016, 12:01 PM   #181
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Reading over everyone's posts today as well...
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However, I am thinking also another thing - that Inzil seems to be very happy now that Nerwen, whom he suspected yesterDay, died, to start immediately quite aggressively question Kuru.
Yes, this was something that I noticed as well.
Gah, none of this fits. Would it work that Zil and Kuru would be in a pack together - or Legate and Zil,or Legate and Kuru? The old wolf-on-wolf bickering routine wouldn't be so needful in this kind of game when there are no role-reveals after death.
I wish everyone would show up so we could at least eliminate Kuru more categorically from suspicion. On reflection I do think his reluctance to be rep does make his claim seem more credible.
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Old 10-31-2016, 01:33 PM   #182
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I'm here

First off, a general apology for being so lame in this game. I have unfortunately discovered why people with adult jobs often drop out of ww games, and being in dark about the rules and the roles is always highly unmotivating to me. When there's nothing you can do and feels like the actual game is in the hands of the wolves and gifteds, I find it really hard to actually focus on the game, especially when there's a gazillion other things happening in my life at the same time. ANYWAY I decided I am trying to try a bit more now, and I'm glad most people seem to finally favour a lynch today. Now, let's get some blood flowing... *insert maniacal grin* *anyway it's Halloween don't look at me*

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
if we choose a trustworthy Rep early enough - I would not be opposed to choosing Lottie again, btw
I will side eye anyone who supports someone else than Lottie. Granted, it's not 100% certain she's a known innocent, but she should definitely not be a suspect priority. Also I don't think it's a problem she's not around at the actual deadline.

I see no reason not to believe Kuru's claim for toDay - we should see soon if he's telling the truth or not. I keep being a little paranoid about something huge going on, probably because the game has been so uneventful on the surface. I mean, we have one dead person who was probably innocent (RIGHT? like there's no way Nerwen could've been guilty? I've spent embarassingly long thinking about this) and one modfire, and everyone else is still here - and half of the village has been very quiet (not that I should really point any fingers there).

I'm a bit worried about Boro not turning up. I think he's most likely to be an ordo given his inactivity, but in that case his modfire will play straight into the wolves' hands, and it would be the second one. That makes me think we should really think our lynch through toDay and play it as safe as we can.

Next up: a list to sort out my thoughts.
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Old 10-31-2016, 01:57 PM   #183
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Kuru - claims to be last Night's victim, fair enough. I've been conflicted about him all game and this hardly makes it easier as I'm creating scenarios in my head where the wolves targeted absentee Boro to make Kuru "a known innocent" but I don't know how likely that is. I think we should just wait and see and definitely not lynch him toDay.

Lottie - well, if she isn't innocent, the other option is that the wolves targeted McCaber on Night1 and wolf!Lottie went for the opening when McCaber didn't appear on Day1. That would have been a nice stroke of luck for them, and a risky strategy. It's hard to see Lottie as a wolf - if she is, then hats off for the bold play.

Lalaith - I still think she's likely to be innocent given how generally clueless she's been all game - unless the cluelessness is deliberate, but that's a bit of a dirty strategy in my book and I don't know if Lalaith would go for it. I suppose it's still not impossible for her to be a wolf.

Legate - okay now we get to the funny part. First off, no I don't really find him particularly suspicious - he's been helpful, reasonable, open about his thoughts unlike many others. But what I find suspicious is that he seems to have achieved some sort of a known innocent status, and by what exactly?? It would be a very nice wolf strategy to put one of them on a pedestal like that and then keep clapping him on the back like "look at this innocent guy isn't he marvelous". So anyone who gives Legate a free pass gets a massive side eye from this direction.

Dun - to be entirely honest, he keeps occupying my top suspicion slot. He's nothing but fishy, the only thing I'm wondering about is if he isn't too fishy to be fishy, if you get my meaning.

Boro - like I said, a wolf!ordo might feel a little more "honor-bound" to play and assuming he's innocent is going to be the better option if he gets modfired, but the actual truth could be anything. The couple of posts he made didn't really tell me much, and they didn't really scream innocent to me like innocent Boro's posts often do - but it was probably literally two posts.

Shasta - I keep forgetting he's playing at all, he's been so quiet. Busy, shady or suffering from ordoly lack of motivation? Who knows. But looking at my own list, by pure process of elimination I should find him mightily suspicious. We aren't that many in this village, but we do have three wolves (unless McCaber was indeed one - side note, that might have been a reason for Sally to limit the herbalists powers more than she originally planned). Shasta is a much more likely wolf in my book than, well, almost anyone bar Inzil, so I think he bears more looking at than we've done so far.
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Old 10-31-2016, 02:19 PM   #184
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Good to see at least someone. The above couple of posts make me feel a bit better about Lommy - it feels like her innocent self, and the way of thinking sorta seems like it. It can still go either way, but it made me feel better.

The same goes for Lalaith, to a certain extent.

That would bring me back to considering Inzil for the lynch toDay. Hmm.

Shasta is nowhere to be seen very much. He would be of course a possible Wolf, but I would so much like to see him appear at first, especially as he had promised to come back with some more ideas.

I trust Kuru, I trust Lottie. Boro is nowhere to be seen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
Lottie - well, if she isn't innocent, the other option is that the wolves targeted McCaber on Night1 and wolf!Lottie went for the opening when McCaber didn't appear on Day1. That would have been a nice stroke of luck for them, and a risky strategy. It's hard to see Lottie as a wolf - if she is, then hats off for the bold play.
Wait, this does not make any sense. If the WWs had targeted McCaber on Night 1, he would have died on Night 2. But he died only on Night 3. Like, I can imagine a situation where the WWs would intentionally forgo the first kill in order to make Lottie look good (it's about the only "conspiracy theory" scheme I really consider possible at all so far, but that's also one extra reason for me to entrust Lottie with the vote so far as she seems trustworthy).
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Old 10-31-2016, 02:38 PM   #185
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I'm here, and will (hopefully) be around until deadline.

I'll go and pull some things to respond to momentarily, but regarding the Herbalist and why I think they're out of power - didn't I already say? There was very little reason not to heal Nerwen if the Herbalist had the power to do so - especially considering the stalling strategy we've implemented. Every blocked kill sets the wolves back seriously - after all, this game has a hard limit on Days. Sally said the amount of power the Herbalist has would be based on the number of people playing - with the game for sure ending on Day 6 and the low number of players, I think it very likely that the Herbalist only had one save. That's not being a pessimist - that's being a realist.
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Old 10-31-2016, 02:45 PM   #186
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There are some curious harmonies to the posts of Lalaith that I find suspicious.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith
but might the no-show of Boro yesterday tempt the wolves to risk breathing on him (Boro I mean) and then sending one of their number in to make a false claim?
And

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
as I'm creating scenarios in my head where the wolves targeted absentee Boro to make Kuru "a known innocent"
Food for thought.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
But what I find suspicious is that he seems to have achieved some sort of a known innocent status, and by what exactly?? It would be a very nice wolf strategy to put one of them on a pedestal like that and then keep clapping him on the back like "look at this innocent guy isn't he marvelous". So anyone who gives Legate a free pass gets a massive side eye from this direction.
Fair enough.

Legate is likely innocent (and at this point in the game, pretty much has to be treated as one) because he was the first to publically advocate the risky and controversial plan of Not Lynching. He stuck to his guns on this point and the plan is/was a tactically and strategically sound one given the parameters of this game. If you want further explanation of why this is so, please go back and review our posts on the subject as I really don’t want to rehash the whole thing here.

Now, it is possible that this is all a cunning plot on his part, but if it is he deliberately set himself a steep challenge by making the game much harder on himself on a fundamental level so if he pulls it off, good on him.

But I don’t think that is at all likely and we can’t behave like it is.

I'm also growing concerned that the ordos are going to end up essentially forfeiting the game through modfiring which would be a very disappointing outcome on an intriguing and as far as I know fairly unique set-up for a game.

EDIT: Xed with Shasta
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Old 10-31-2016, 02:50 PM   #187
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The weekend snuck up and smacked me hard. But I promise I'm only mostly dead, which means I'm slightly alive. I just need a miracle to figure out what the heck has happened in the last 1.5-2 days. (No this isn't a counter to Kuru'a black breath, the weekend thoroughly tried to kill me...but not dead enough!)
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Old 10-31-2016, 02:55 PM   #188
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith View Post
Kuru

Yes, that’s been an assumption lots of people have made, but then I got thinking, what if he'd been a wolf? I remembered someone had thought there were just two wolves - I went back and checked, and it was Legate . So then I thought, lets say McCaber was a wolf who hadn’t showed up – might this be a slip from a fellow wolf who knew they were only two around?
I know he's a top-grade player and so unlikely have made such a careless slip were he a wolf. But you never know. Legate seems to be very widely trusted at the moment. I know he carried out the will of the village on the first day and I do think he appears very helpful, but I don’t want to trust him blindly - I personally would much prefer Lottie as representative.

Then there’s our current sick patient, Kuru. No-one has come forward to counterclaim against him, but might the no-show of Boro yesterday tempt the wolves to risk breathing on him (Boro I mean) and then sending one of their number in to make a false claim? There is no reason that the wolves might not assume what most of the rest of us did, that Nerwen would be saved by the herbalist last night, in which case their situation would be getting desperate and they’d be prepared to take risks in order to get a kill.
An appearance by Boro himself would therefore be very welcome for a number of reasons.
How would Legate have known that McCaber wasn't going to show up? I didn't know the game was starting until our dearest moddess messaged me on Facebook about it - it wouldn't have been reasonable at that point to assume that just because McCaber didn't show up on Night One that he wasn't going to show up at all. Your point about Legate seems to be grasping at straws, and so does your point about Kuru. A Kuruwolf would have nothing to gain from faking a claim. He was already widely trusted. You seem to be scrambling for reasons to suspect Legate and Kuru, possibly because in a village this small, eliminating two people from the pool of possible wolves is a very bad thing - for the wolves. This post makes me feel much, much worse about you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Good to see at least someone. The above couple of posts make me feel a bit better about Lommy - it feels like her innocent self, and the way of thinking sorta seems like it. It can still go either way, but it made me feel better.

The same goes for Lalaith, to a certain extent.
I agree with you about Lommy, but not Lalaith. I'd say my priorities have shifted: I would much prefer to lynch Lalaith toDay at this point. Lommy's more recent posts have felt much more like her usual innocent self.

Edit: xed with Boro - good to see you!
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Old 10-31-2016, 02:59 PM   #189
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Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
The weekend snuck up and smacked me hard. But I promise I'm only mostly dead, which means I'm slightly alive. I just need a miracle to figure out what the heck has happened in the last 1.5-2 days. (No this isn't a counter to Kuru'a black breath, the weekend thoroughly tried to kill me...but not dead enough!)
Yay Boro's back!

My joy is nearly inexpressible!

I say "nearly" because there is the possibility that he might be bad.

However, in all seriousness and semi-OCC, I really don't want to see anybody else get modfired. I want to see how this game genuinely plays out.

Last edited by Kuruharan; 10-31-2016 at 03:05 PM. Reason: My joy "IS" nearly inexpressible...not "in." Argh...the Black Breath must be getting worse...
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Old 10-31-2016, 03:24 PM   #190
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Well, I think there is a certain generic approach Shasta has like this, almost always. Speaking of generic approaches however, where his proverbial psychic powers are in this game?
They're still around, because I'll be honest - I still don't see what's so suspicious about Inzil. I think the most recent point against him was made by you, Legate, and it was a very Lottie-esque "well he just sounds overzealous"-type thing to say.
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Old 10-31-2016, 03:28 PM   #191
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Quote:
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Yay Boro's back!

My joy is nearly inexpressible!

I say "nearly" because there is the possibility that he might be bad.
.
I wouldn't be throwing any parties. I'm likely to be pretty useless for as long as I'm still around, just a tired soul who's going to be an body for the cold stone tomb whenever the conspirators get into a sticky spot. (I see it's kinda started to happen).

But rest assured I won't go out THAT way (mod-firing). The conspirators will have to stick their necks out if they want me gone...I just can't see (nor should anyone expect) myself doing anything to make them want to get rid of me this time. :/
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Old 10-31-2016, 03:34 PM   #192
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Hm. Lal's latest does make her look sketchier. I have to remember though, as others have noted, there's no reason Legate should have a free pass. He certainly wouldn't be my lynch choice though.

I have to say too, this game thus far has done a fantastic job of keeping me wondering about everyone.
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Old 10-31-2016, 03:40 PM   #193
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Quote:
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I have to remember though, as others have noted, there's no reason Legate should have a free pass.
I wouldn't describe it as a free pass. More like an earned pass. I just posted this...so why not post it again:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuruharan View Post
Legate is likely innocent (and at this point in the game, pretty much has to be treated as one) because he was the first to publically advocate the risky and controversial plan of Not Lynching. He stuck to his guns on this point and the plan is/was a tactically and strategically sound one given the parameters of this game. If you want further explanation of why this is so, please go back and review our posts on the subject as I really don’t want to rehash the whole thing here.

Now, it is possible that this is all a cunning plot on his part, but if it is he deliberately set himself a steep challenge by making the game much harder on himself on a fundamental level so if he pulls it off, good on him.
Seriously though, focusing on Legate at this point is counterproductive at the very least...possibly malicious.
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Old 10-31-2016, 03:40 PM   #194
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I think it's worth talking about which win condition we want to fulfill.

From the admin thread -

Quote:
The Ward is evacuated safely under two conditions:
1. All conspirators are eliminated before reinforcements arrive.
2. Either the bard or the herbalist is still alive when reinforcements arrive, and the population of innocent souls in the Ward either outnumbers or equals that of the conspirators.
Now, the game ends on Day 6. We aren't going to get a lynch that day, but conversely, the person whom the conspirators demoralize the Night before won't have had time to die. This means, in game terms, that we have five lynches to play with.

Now, we've already given up two of those with our no-lynch plan the past two days. In order to fulfill the first win condition, we'd have to be right each time we lynch, the next three days. That's certainly something we can try for, if we think we can pull it off, but it might be worth considering the second condition.

There are nine people alive - it's currently a 6/3 split in our favor. By tomorrow, Day 4, (if we no-lynch) it'll be 5/3 (assuming no Herbalist save). If we no-lynch again, on Day 5 (the final day) it'll be 4/3. Someone will likely die that night (all of this is assuming no more Gifted saves), but 3/3 is still equal; provided either the Herbalist or the Bard is still alive, we'll win.

I'm not sure it's the spirit of the game to never lynch anyone, but I do think it's an option that should be discussed. Anyone can check my math in case I'm wrong.
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Last edited by Shastanis Althreduin; 10-31-2016 at 03:41 PM. Reason: X'ed with Inzil and Kuru
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Old 10-31-2016, 03:51 PM   #195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
I think it's worth talking about which win condition we want to fulfill.

From the admin thread -



Now, the game ends on Day 6. We aren't going to get a lynch that day, but conversely, the person whom the conspirators demoralize the Night before won't have had time to die. This means, in game terms, that we have five lynches to play with.

Now, we've already given up two of those with our no-lynch plan the past two days. In order to fulfill the first win condition, we'd have to be right each time we lynch, the next three days. That's certainly something we can try for, if we think we can pull it off, but it might be worth considering the second condition.

There are nine people alive - it's currently a 6/3 split in our favor. By tomorrow, Day 4, (if we no-lynch) it'll be 5/3 (assuming no Herbalist save). If we no-lynch again, on Day 5 (the final day) it'll be 4/3. Someone will likely die that night (all of this is assuming no more Gifted saves), but 3/3 is still equal; provided either the Herbalist or the Bard is still alive, we'll win.

I'm not sure it's the spirit of the game to never lynch anyone, but I do think it's an option that should be discussed. Anyone can check my math in case I'm wrong.
I ran the scenario in this post. According to that scenario, we would need at least one save for the no lynch scenario to work.

Time is beginning to wane.

What should we do toDAY?
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Old 10-31-2016, 03:56 PM   #196
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I'll go ahead and do this, since I don't foresee another rep candidate coming to mind.

++Lottie

As for the lynch, maybe

++Lalaith or

++Shasta (maybe because he isn't suspecting me )

Boro is here and being confusing.
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Old 10-31-2016, 04:00 PM   #197
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuruharan View Post
I ran the scenario in this post. According to that scenario, we would need at least one save for the no lynch scenario to work.

Time is beginning to wane.

What should we do toDAY?
You're right, the McCaber modfire threw me off. Well, there goes that.

As far as a lynch goes, though, I think the two days of getting to be lazy because of the no-lynching has messed with my head a bit, because I can't think of anyone I suspect. I'll go take a look at Lommy and Lalaith, I suppose. Still don't suspect Inzil (even though he suspects me for not suspecting him, rude.)
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Old 10-31-2016, 04:23 PM   #198
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Well, it can't be Kuru or Lottie.

It could be Legate, regardless of whether or not he proposed the early no-lynches; I personally am dealing with the repercussions of that (complacency) and I don't think I'm the only one. I haven't looked very seriously at much that he's said, to be honest, because the majority seems to think him a cleared innocent - and that's dangerous. It's a bit late in the day to do anything about that right now, though.

I don't think it's Inzil mostly because of the early out-of-nowhere suspicion on him that I didn't understand (and at this point, I'm not going to lie - I may be clinging to this impression of his innocence because I don't like being wrong.) I wouldn't want to see him lynched today, though.

Lalaith - I've only played a couple games with her, as I recall, and she reminds me a bit of G55 in that quasi-helpful way that she has, that almost looking-for-approval tone. Trouble is, I almost always think G55's innocent unless given some actual evidence, and I don't see any of that to say Lal is evil, so... tentatively think she's innocent.

Lommy I tend to trust more now that I have a more solid opinion on Legate, because she seems to be the only other person thus for who's entertained the notion. She also seems to be fully behind Lottie as rep, which is the sensible (if boring) option - and I'd think, this far into the game, having missed a kill, the wolves would be trying harder to wrest control of the lynch. I'm okay with her.

Boro is a total mystery. Process of elimination tells me he's probably a conspirator given my reads on everyone else. There's not a lot else to say here.

So, if I had to pick three... eesh. Boro for sure. Legate, because I'm not as sold as everyone else seems to be and it'd be a masterful play if he actually is evil (also, I've catapulted to "cleared" status before as evil - he remembers.) And... I don't know. I so don't want to be wrong on Inzil, but I suppose I could be.

That took far too long.
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Old 10-31-2016, 04:24 PM   #199
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Great to see people around!

I am also very much happier about Shasta - he sounds reasonable and all, and seems genuine and genuinely thinking about the game.

Boro not much so far, I see. But at least he is around.

I guess we should keep a tally on the "votes" for who we want to see lynched. (Those can of course be "retracted" and so on, but I'm thinking mainly so that we know who seems to be wanted by the majority. And also by whom!) I will try to take a look at that in a second...

EDIT: x-ed with one Shasta
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Old 10-31-2016, 04:25 PM   #200
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Quote:
How would Legate have known that McCaber wasn't going to show up?
He wouldn't of course, but if he were a wolf worrying about the third wolf not having shown up during Night one, it might explain why he said two wolves on Day One - it was an odd thing to say.
It's certainly not enough to make me want to lynch him but I was concerned about the consensus forming around his innocence - such unchallenged consensus is dangerous.
Boro's timely arrival has calmed my concerns about Kuru.
Speaking of which - I was going to say, whether Boro turned up or not, I don't believe in reading so much into Boro's possible role based on his absence - RL issues can affect gifted, wolves and ordos alike.
Anyway, despite her current bloodlust in my direction, I am going to vote
++Loslote as rep, as I think she is the only more or less safe bet to be innocent.
As I said, now Boro has confirmed he is breath-free I am no longer worried about Kuru - but I still believe that we have at least one noisy wolf among us, and of the three I was trying to fit into a pattern earlier, the most wolfy is Zil, and I would be inclined to vote there.
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