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Old 10-31-2016, 04:36 PM   #201
Legate of Amon Lanc
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Okay, there aren't really "clear" votes as far as I can see apart from Zil's.

Inzil => ++Lalaith, or maybe ++Shasta

But:
Lottie was originally for ++Lommy, but now would prefer ++Lalaith (right?) So it would effectively be for Lalaith from you at the moment?

I am not sure if I would like to lynch Lalaith, it is an option I would not oppose, but I might prefer Zil or even Boro (yeah, now that he is nicely here, we can happily lynch him, right... )

EDIT: x-ed since my last (i.e., Lalaith)
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Old 10-31-2016, 04:37 PM   #202
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I'll have to leave soon, so since I'm getting rep votes again, I wanted to leave you all with a summary of my current state of mind.

I do think we need to lynch today, and I will listen to the will of the village within reason. (If you all try to tell me to have Legate or Kuru killed, I'm not gonna do it, sorry not sorry.) I would lean towards Lalaith, but I also feel shaky about Shasta and Lommy. If everyone insists on Zil, I would go with the will of the majority, but I don't think I would go for Boro at this point.

Please, when you vote, also include who you would like to lynch toDay! I don't want to mess up and have the wrong person killed, and I won't be around at the deadline to confirm with you all what the final decision is. Transparency is the best way to be sure no unfortunate mistakes are made!

Also, if you decide not to go with me, I would be perfectly happy with

++Legate

as rep. I don't know where this recent suspicion came from - it appears to have come from the fact that no one does suspect him, which I think is a little ridiculous and a lot suspicious - but I still trust him.

Edit: xed with Legate
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Old 10-31-2016, 04:46 PM   #203
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Just when I thought I had a hang of this game, you guys start messing with my head again. Mostly just the mats though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Wait, this does not make any sense. If the WWs had targeted McCaber on Night 1, he would have died on Night 2. But he died only on Night 3. Like, I can imagine a situation where the WWs would intentionally forgo the first kill in order to make Lottie look good (it's about the only "conspiracy theory" scheme I really consider possible at all so far, but that's also one extra reason for me to entrust Lottie with the vote so far as she seems trustworthy).
You're right, my bad. But it doesn't sound very likely that the wolves would skip their first kill just for funsies, does it? Well, if they did, it was rather brilliant. But I'm not really considering that. Not now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuru
Legate is likely innocent (and at this point in the game, pretty much has to be treated as one) because he was the first to publically advocate the risky and controversial plan of Not Lynching. He stuck to his guns on this point and the plan is/was a tactically and strategically sound one given the parameters of this game. If you want further explanation of why this is so, please go back and review our posts on the subject as I really don’t want to rehash the whole thing here.
I agree he's most likely innocent, but you being so adamant about it makes me think that if you don't succumb to the black breath and there's no clear indication of a save, Legate should be definitely looked at too. This (and the totally unnecessary follow up in #193) is exactly the kind of patting on the back that's weirding me out in this game. But it's a bit pointless to speculate that toDay as your fate remains to be seen (okay, that sounded cold, I was just playing an rpg with a ruthless bounty hunter character and maybe the attitude stuck ) and Legate is hardly a primary problem toDay for the reasons you mention.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
The weekend snuck up and smacked me hard. But I promise I'm only mostly dead, which means I'm slightly alive. I just need a miracle to figure out what the heck has happened in the last 1.5-2 days. (No this isn't a counter to Kuru'a black breath, the weekend thoroughly tried to kill me...but not dead enough!)
*waves* Good to have you back! At least for the time being.

Shasta's advocating for a no lynch, huh? That doesn't sound very good to me. Like it sounds stupid (and boring), and doesn't make me think better of Shasta either.

++Lottie for rep


edit: xed with "198 and everything onwards
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Old 10-31-2016, 04:57 PM   #204
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Lalaith's latest got me like . And by that I mean it sounded so contrived that perhaps I'm mistaken about her after all. I don't know. I still think she's probably a very confused innocent.

++Inzil

for lynch. Like I've said before, he keeps stirring the discussion in the weirdest ways, while being very glib and not always making much sense (okay, few of us do in this weird game, sorry about that mate). Something's just wrong about him.

Also, Shasta's pretty high on my suspicion list too and his reluctance to lynch Inzil makes me raise my eyebrows quite a lot too - it's easy to see wolf!Shasta trying to avoid the lynch of fellow Inzil (who's been quite widely suspected since Day1).
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Old 10-31-2016, 05:05 PM   #205
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Quote:
Shasta's advocating for a no lynch, huh? That doesn't sound very good to me. Like it sounds stupid (and boring), and doesn't make me think better of Shasta either.
I am doing no such thing. I presented it as an option without taking the modkill into account, and let go of that plan when it was pointed out by Kuru. This sort of spin makes me think quite badly of Lommy suddenly.
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Old 10-31-2016, 05:08 PM   #206
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Why are we voting Lottie for rep?
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Old 10-31-2016, 05:11 PM   #207
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Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
Why are we voting Lottie for rep?
Cause we're boring.

(She was saved by the Herbalist.)
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV
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Old 10-31-2016, 05:22 PM   #208
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Okay, it's bedtime for me as well, so.

++Loslote for the Rep

I am for lynching Boro primarily, or secondarily Zil. If there is a majority for either of those, I would support that one (Zil seems to be more probable, so I guess if I were to cast a "real vote", it would be
++Zil
). If there is a majority for Lalaith, I could go with that (and if I end up being elected, I'd honor that if it would be a majority wish).

I am certainly against lynching Shasta, Kuru or Loslote.

So far, I believe our "tally" for the lynch would be:

Loslote=>Lalaith
Zil=>Lalaith
Lommy=>Inzil
Legate=>Inzil


Correct me if I am wrong, I am really really going to sleep now, but I trust people will see it if I'm blatantly wrong. I think I am not.

That's roughly it. Good Night.

P. S. And I really appeal on all of you to do the "mock lynch vote" here. Because it also makes it much easier to figure out who really said what and all that.
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Old 10-31-2016, 05:27 PM   #209
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++Lottie for Rep although I believe that is academic now.

As much as it would have been cool to be the first village in the history of...ever to possibly win a game without making any lynches...circumstances dictate that we do so.

Make no mistake about it, I do not trust Inzil. He may very well be bad and we may need to eject him.

However, of the realistic candidates on offer, I feel worse about ++Lalaith.

Sorry, Lalaith. You know I love you.

Edit: Forgot my vote pluses.
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Old 10-31-2016, 05:29 PM   #210
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In that case...

++Lottie for rep

As for the lynch. I'm all for informing the guards a name today. I'm not going to have a clue who, so I will leave it to the hands of our chosen member. She seems to have a rational and logical mind for her choices, much better than the random guesses I would throw out right now.
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Old 10-31-2016, 05:41 PM   #211
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I too need to go to sleep. I vote for ++Inzil.
Kuru, there's only one thing to say and that's
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Old 10-31-2016, 05:51 PM   #212
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++Lottie 4 Rep

I'd go with Lommy or Boro, at this point. Outside shot at Inzil, I suppose, but the first two (mostly after Lommy's most recent spin on things I've done).
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Old 10-31-2016, 05:57 PM   #213
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Whatever else may be said, Inzil's right about one thing...not enough video links this game.

EDIT: That first cat may have been reading this game...
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Old 10-31-2016, 06:01 PM   #214
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++youtube links for representative

The Day has ended. It occurs to me I haven't been clearly numbering the Days and Nights, so I'll fix that once I'm not on mobile.


Lottie is the rep. Kindly send me your report at your convenience.

Sweet dreams, everyone.
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Old 11-01-2016, 06:04 PM   #215
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Dun tossed and turned in his bed. The nightmares had gotten worse over the last couple of nights; it was nearly impossible for him to sleep without seeing Nerwen or Phantom.

A loud thud echoed through Dun's room as he fell from his bed. He groggily rolled over, his bedding joining him on the floor and covering his body. A moment later, he was wrenched from the floor by sharp-nailed fingers. He screamed, but the blankets muffled his voice.

"Help me!" he shouted again. "What's happening?"

The pressure on his legs tightened, claws digging into his calves as another hand clamped over his mouth. He was being carried somewhere, clearly, but where, and by whom?

"Mmmph mmmm didn't mmph!"

"Silence!" a gravelly voice demanded, and when Dun struggled again, the fingers on his face thrust into his cheeks, blood spilling down his face.

He tried to ask what they wanted, but before he could do anything else about his predicament, he was slammed to the floor.

The floor of his bedroom was cold. Dun shivered, attempting to recover his bearings. He was covered in sweat, but definitely uninjured.

"It was just a dream," he reminded himself. "I'm going to be just-"

A hand closed over his mouth, and the room was silent once more.


Patients
Kuru
Lottie
Lalaith
Lommy
Legate
Boro
Shasta

The Morgue
Phantom (for posterity)
McCaber
Nerwen
Dun


It is now Day 4.
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Old 11-01-2016, 07:26 PM   #216
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You guys left me with a very close vote - 4/3, arguably 3.5/3 in favor of Zil - which left me with a difficult decision! I argued with myself for a long time last Night, but ultimately decided that the will of the majority should rule even in the event of a close tie. And if I'm reading the narration right, I think Zil having nightmares about tp and Nerwen means he was, in fact, evil? So yay for staying calm and not flying off the handle.

Also, I woke up this morning with a dreadful headache and this weird, oozy rash...wonder what that's about...

(It's the Black Breath, in case I wasn't clear enough. I am not long for this world, my friends, not long indeed...)

Also, I'm assuming the Herbalist saved Kuru, probably to even out the odds in case we end up with the Day Six winning condition. Thanks, Herbalist.
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Old 11-01-2016, 07:57 PM   #217
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I also wonder if my being targeted last Night suggests that there is at least one wolf in the people pushing for suspicion against Legate. The wolves couldn't have chosen one of the unknown innocents, since that would just make it obvious who the wolves are, but they could have chosen Legate without tipping their hand - unless they're still hoping to swing the tide and orchestrate suspicion against him. I do think the people who pushed for that yesterDay (Shasta and Lalaith, primarily) deserve a closer look.

I also think the way Shasta tried to defend Zil and then suddenly put him in his top three for lynching looks very suspicious. Now that the narration seems to suggest that Zil was a wolf, I would argue that Shasta looks likely to be his packmate.
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Old 11-01-2016, 08:58 PM   #218
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First off, yay, I'm still alive!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
And if I'm reading the narration right, I think Zil having nightmares about tp and Nerwen means he was, in fact, evil?
I hope so, and it was possible, but I don't read the narration as necessarily implying that.

However, that is neither here nor there.

Quote:
(It's the Black Breath, in case I wasn't clear enough. I am not long for this world, my friends, not long indeed...)
Alas.

Quote:
I do think the people who pushed for that yesterDay (Shasta and Lalaith, primarily) deserve a closer look.
I wholeheartedly agree.
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Old 11-02-2016, 05:31 AM   #219
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And if I'm reading the narration right, I think Zil having nightmares about tp and Nerwen means he was, in fact, evil? So yay for staying calm and not flying off the handle.
Funny, because I read it completely in the opposite way. "It looks as if he was good, being haunted in the same way they were." Although I see now that it would make equal, if not more sense if that was that those he had contributed to killing haunted him. But I assume it's meant to be ambiguous anyway. So I am not sure.

Quote:
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Also, I'm assuming the Herbalist saved Kuru, probably to even out the odds in case we end up with the Day Six winning condition. Thanks, Herbalist.
Speaking of that, would that mean the option of "waiting it out" might be feasible again? Of course there is the ambiguity whether Zil was good or evil (if evil, then it should be fairly good in our favor, though). Can somebody do the maths? Are we once again in the "if one kill can be prevented..." situation? Because then it might be better to avoid the lynching. It would be close though, I bet.

Quote:
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I also think the way Shasta tried to defend Zil and then suddenly put him in his top three for lynching looks very suspicious. Now that the narration seems to suggest that Zil was a wolf, I would argue that Shasta looks likely to be his packmate.
I would not be too hasty about that. First, let's keep in mind that we really don't know whether Zil was a Wolf or not. Second, I don't actually think Shasta put Zil among his top three in any striking manner.

In fact, I was sorta surprised Zil got lynched in the end, because it started to look like he wasn't a very popular target. Obviously, Lalaith's vote for him was self-preservation. But that Shasta was indeed a "0.5", because he simply did not want to lynch Lalaith more.

Anyway, I have generally fairly good feeling about Shasta, myself. Whether I agree with his opinions or not, he seems to be thinking things through and it feels like it is genuine.
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Old 11-02-2016, 07:25 AM   #220
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I'm likely going to have to vote very, very early today. Unless something dramatically changes in the next few hours, I want Kuru for rep.

No matter Inzil's role, Lottie, you did the best with what you were given and with the knowledge you had at the time. It's all any of us could ask from a representative. Your conscience is clear. Sleep in peace if the herbalist can't cure your affliction tonight.
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Old 11-02-2016, 07:30 AM   #221
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Quote:
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Anyway, I have generally fairly good feeling about Shasta, myself. Whether I agree with his opinions or not, he seems to be thinking things through and it feels like it is genuine.
See, I don't get where you are picking that up. As I will demonstrate in a post later toDAY, he at the very least is not reading the thread with a great deal of care, which is a classic wolf tell.

Who is your wolf pack?

My worst case scenario wolf pack is Shasta, Lalaith, and Lommy.

My better case scenario wolf pack is Shasta, Lalaith, and Inzil.
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Old 11-02-2016, 08:39 AM   #222
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I would also like to propose that Lottie be our representative for the DAY so that if she isn't healed she can go out with a bang and hopefully take a wolf down too.

I mean, there can't be any doubt that she is innocent.
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Old 11-02-2016, 08:59 AM   #223
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Originally Posted by Kuruharan View Post
See, I don't get where you are picking that up. As I will demonstrate in a post later toDAY, he at the very least is not reading the thread with a great deal of care, which is a classic wolf tell.

Who is your wolf pack?

My worst case scenario wolf pack is Shasta, Lalaith, and Lommy.

My better case scenario wolf pack is Shasta, Lalaith, and Inzil.
I agree with your pack scenarios. I don't think Boro is a wolf, which means it has to be one of the other four (Lommy, Lalaith, Zil, or Shasta). Since we killed one last Night, if we kill another toNight, I think we are just about guaranteed to have killed at least one wolf, which is why I think we definitely should have another lynch toNight.

Also, I will be in and out today, but I will be around closer to dl.
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Old 11-02-2016, 11:00 AM   #224
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I would also like to propose that Lottie be our representative for the DAY so that if she isn't healed she can go out with a bang and hopefully take a wolf down too.

I mean, there can't be any doubt that she is innocent.
In that case...

++Lottie for rep.

I agree with having another lynch chosen today. If Inzil was a conspirator, we are in a good spot. If he wasn't, and we decide no lynch today it seems we'll be hard pressed to hold on til the reinforcements.

The ones who make me most nervous of conspiracy are Shasta and Legate.
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Old 11-02-2016, 11:10 AM   #225
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Looks like everyone is like me and doesn't have much time to play the game today.

Shasta posts from yesterday

Post 185 - Says the Herbalist might only have one save and seems...unduly happy about this for an ordo.

Post 190 - Still defends Inzil rather strenuously.

Post 194 - This is the post that gives me the strongest impression that he is not paying attention to the thread. He somehow managed to miss my Post 166 which from visual style alone is one of the most noticeable posts in the thread. Not actually reading the thread is a potential wolfish tell because wolves can subconsciously not read the thread because they don't need to. They already know who is guilty.

Also, at that stage, no-lynch was detrimental to the Ward because we couldn't win that way at that point.

Post 197 - He says he doesn't really suspect anybody. Says with almost a "ho-hum" that he will take a look at Lommy and Lalaith.

Post 198 - Suspicious of Legate for no other reason than it would be really cleverly evil of Legate to be evil in this game. Still defending Inzil.

Post 207 - Why does he write disparagingly about the Ward behaving sensibly?

Post 212 - Suddenly says there might be an outside shot at Inzil being a wolf...but why at that point all of a sudden when Inzil had been deeply suspected from the beginning?

I haven't had time toDAY to run a numbers scenario, and I am not sure that I will. That being said, I am not sure not-lynching is a winning strategy for the Ward at this point. To borrow the analogy from Thucydides, by starting to lynch we have taken a tiger by the tail (our lynches might be wrong). It might have been dangerous for us to seize the tiger by the tail but it is more dangerous for us to let it go now (i.e. the only way for us to correct a bad lynch at this point is a correct lynch).

Now, if somebody wants to run a few scenarios and post them here, I strongly encourage that to happen. I'm just not sure I will be able to get to it as I am very busy at work today.

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Old 11-02-2016, 11:11 AM   #226
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I would also like to say that my preference for a lynch toDAY would be Lalaith as she seems the most likely wolf suspect to achieve a solid consensus.
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Old 11-02-2016, 11:13 AM   #227
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Unless something dramatically changes in the next few hours, I want Kuru for rep.
Now why would you say that? It's evidently clear that Lottie is innocent - Kuru is probably innocent but there is a scenario where he could be guilty. So why choose Kuru over Lottie?

(The scenario where Kuru could be guilty is as follows: desperate wolves would be needing to replace known innocent Lottie with one of their own - how would they do this? Well, once Lottie was finally out of the way, the next 'survivor' would take her place - thus having a conspirator controlling the lynching. It would be possible to stage-manage by simply not breathing on anyone on Night 2 and then having Kuruwolf claiming to be sick).
No, I'm not putting anyone in the known innocent pile other than Lottie and myself. I do think Zil was probably a wolf. I think Boro, Lommy, Legate and [B]Shasta could be wolves. And think even Kuru, far-fetched as it might be, could be a wolf. He has been so adamant about Legate being innocent because of the no-lynching plan, but what if that had been hatched as a wolfy plan to keep the conspirators safe until night-kills put them in the majority to control lynchings? It doesn't seem to have worked out that way, what with Lottie being such a great survivor. But that doesn't mean I'm giving Legate a clean bill of health.
(Thought - if Legate and Kuru turn out to be wolves they will have played with such wily elegance that frankly they deserve to win)
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Old 11-02-2016, 11:49 AM   #228
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At this point, I am not super worried about Lommy. She has seemed much more innocent in the past couple Days than she had at first, and I think Shasta and Lalaith are by far the most sinister seeming of the four unknowns. Could Legate be a wolf? Maybe - but if the only argument against him is that there is no proof that he's for sure innocent, I would be wary of anyone who seriously suggested him as a target toDay.
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Old 11-02-2016, 12:55 PM   #229
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Ok, very short time so I will try to be brief and say as much as possible at the same time. I'll be back later in a couple of hours, but for now...
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Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
I'm likely going to have to vote very, very early today. Unless something dramatically changes in the next few hours, I want Kuru for rep.
That was random - why was the initial choice this and not Lottie? Just curious.
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See, I don't get where you are picking that up. As I will demonstrate in a post later toDAY, he at the very least is not reading the thread with a great deal of care, which is a classic wolf tell.
I actually believe reading the thread carefully is the mark of a Wolf, because they are trying to "stay on top of things". But it depends on the Wolf, I guess. Anyway, after reading your analysis of Shasta, really at least half of it is absolutely the case of "I see a guilty person, now everything he does is evil". That's not to say I don't see reasonably based accusations among some of those, but many of them I don't see as suspicious or think they can be interpreted either way. In any case, I would not base any suspicion on what he has read or not. Many people can read half on the run, from the mobile, whatnot, and this has happened before. Like, I also don't understand how somebody can skip a post like your analysis which takes about half a page, but however frustrating it is, it has happened before. And if it's so visible, then why would a Wolf skip that, of all things. So that actually is one of the (tiny, admitted) things that speak actually for me in Shasta's favor.

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Who is your wolf pack?
Probably in the positive case something like Lalaith, Boro and Inzil. In case Zil was innocent, then something like Lalaith, Boro and Lommy. Boro more so than Lalaith.

My AbsoluteWorstNightmareScenarioOfAll(TM) is Loslote, Kuru and Boro, given how well you just all seemed to agree on everything just among yourselves now (but I understand there was nobody around). But that is just good ol' paranoia right now. I hope.

But, on the subject of Boro, he seems really flip-floppy now, and I don't really trust him. I wish to see more from Lommy and Lal however. My pick for lynch toDay will probably be among them.
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Old 11-02-2016, 01:10 PM   #230
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But, on the subject of Boro, he seems really flip-floppy now, and I don't really trust him. I wish to see more from Lommy and Lal however. My pick for lynch toDay will probably be among them.
I wouldn't say that Boro is trustworthy. Far from it.

I would say that trying to lynch him would be the biggest shot in the dark of everyone for toDAY and I do not believe we can afford to gamble like that if we want to win.
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Old 11-02-2016, 01:11 PM   #231
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Also, the numbers today are in the danger zone for serious wolf manipulation if the likely innocents do not present a unified front, especially if Inzil was innocent.
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Old 11-02-2016, 02:13 PM   #232
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Also, the numbers today are in the danger zone for serious wolf manipulation if the likely innocents do not present a unified front, especially if Inzil was innocent.
I was thinking the same. In that way, having one generally trusted elected representative helps a lot. Because the WWs can't very well manipulate vote at least in that way.
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Old 11-02-2016, 03:00 PM   #233
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I'm here. And to be perfectly frank, I trust Kuru about as far as I can throw him (hint: not far). I'll reply to his points in #225 first -

Quote:
Post 185 - Says the Herbalist might only have one save and seems...unduly happy about this for an ordo.
I still believe this, for the record. I'll explain below. Also, you said yesterDay that you were suspicious of me for making this comment because it was "overly pessimistic". You can't have it both ways.
Quote:
Post 190 - Still defends Inzil rather strenuously.
I didn't think he was evil. I'll be the first to admit I've had more innocent-reads than guilty-reads this game - Inzil was one of them. As Legate has said today, I only quasi-voted for Inzil over Lalaith because I tend to have a stronger innocent-read on her. Could I be wrong? Of course I could be - anyone could. I don't think I am, though.
Quote:
Post 194 - This is the post that gives me the strongest impression that he is not paying attention to the thread. He somehow managed to miss my Post 166 which from visual style alone is one of the most noticeable posts in the thread. Not actually reading the thread is a potential wolfish tell because wolves can subconsciously not read the thread because they don't need to. They already know who is guilty.

Also, at that stage, no-lynch was detrimental to the Ward because we couldn't win that way at that point.
I already admitted that the McCaber modfire is what threw off my calculations. Honestly, I put that scenario together during the Night. This is the only game we've ever played where innocents can be certain of surviving the Night, and I couldn't be here during the proper Day, so I took advantage. Also, it's easy to scroll past things when you're playing on mobile.
Quote:
Post 197 - He says he doesn't really suspect anybody. Says with almost a "ho-hum" that he will take a look at Lommy and Lalaith.
I didn't, at the time. Like I already said, the first two lazy days played havoc with my Werewolf radar. I didn't really suspect either Lommy or Lalaith, and neither had said overly much in any case (I know, pot meet kettle) - it wasn't until the very end of the day yesterDay that I began to suspect Lommy.
Quote:
Post 198 - Suspicious of Legate for no other reason than it would be really cleverly evil of Legate to be evil in this game. Still defending Inzil.
Defending Inzil isn't suspicious unless you know for a fact he's evil - which you can't, unless you're evil yourself. Odd, that. In any case, Legate is scary when left unlooked at and I had to narrow it down to three.
Quote:
Post 207 - Why does he write disparagingly about the Ward behaving sensibly?
Cause it's boring. No one's denying it was the sensible option - you'll notice I voted for Lottie in the end. But Lottie's been rep every day and I'm playing this game to have fun.
Quote:
Post 212 - Suddenly says there might be an outside shot at Inzil being a wolf...but why at that point all of a sudden when Inzil had been deeply suspected from the beginning?
Already explained this. The quasi-voting had given every appearance of coming down to Inzil and Lalaith - of the two, I was more confident in Lalaith being innocent.

----------

Now then. Why's Kuru a wolf? Well, it's actually fairly devious.

Firstly, let's examine the Herbalist. I believe the Herbalist had one save. The reason for this is slightly meta, but I think it's fairly strong - if the Herbalist had more than one save, it becomes nearly impossible for the wolves to win in this setup. I don't think Sally would do that. As already has been established, the wolves only get 5 kills this game. Combine that with the delayed kill (establishing cleared innocents every day), the ability to no-lynch (denying the wolves possible mislynches), and an Herbalist with two saves, and you end up with the wolves only having three chances to take down the Bard and Herbalist (and that's not even factoring in possible Bard saves). The wolves' other option is to outnumber the village, but the same limiting factors apply to that scenario as well. It's doable, but only just. The setup makes much more sense, in my opinion, if the Herbalist can only save once.

In either case, the wolves need mislynches in order to win. Reporting someone to the guards is a much better method of killing than demoralization (which clears an innocent every day unless counterclaimed). Look at the numbers (the ones Kuru is so fond of crunching ) - even having "missed" two kills, we're still in a possible 4v3 situation today if Inzil was indeed innocent. All the wolves need is a single innocent vote to go their way and they've got a majority.

What I think happened is this. The wolves deliberately targeted no-one two Nights ago. Kuru then claimed to be demoralized - no one counterclaimed him, because the wolves didn't actually target anyone. When he (obviously) didn't die toDay, well, that must have been the Herbalist's second save, right? Presto! Cleared innocent Kuru.

And Boro, who I think must be a wolf based on process of elimination, started the day by suggesting Kuru be representative, which leads back to the "single innocent vote" above. He's voted Lottie by now, of course, after being called on it.
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Old 11-02-2016, 03:07 PM   #234
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I admit to skimming a bit in order to get my post in as quickly as I could. Reading back, I see Lal has already mentioned the possibility of a wolf no-kill and Kuru claiming to be demoralized. It's a good thought.

Also, there's this, from Kuru -
Quote:
I wouldn't say that Boro is trustworthy. Far from it.

I would say that trying to lynch him would be the biggest shot in the dark of everyone for toDAY and I do not believe we can afford to gamble like that if we want to win.
- which is flip-floppy in and of itself, in my opinion. If you think Boro is "far from trustworthy", it seems to me as though you'd want to lynch him. But you obviously don't.
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Old 11-02-2016, 03:13 PM   #235
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So then, if we have a wolfpack of three, I think two of them are Kuru and Boro. For the third... well, it's obviously not Lottie. It's technically possible it's Lalaith - but after thinking her fairly innocent all game, and then her mentioning the possible no-kill... I doubt it. Could it be Legate? Well, I suppose it could - Kuru's been fairly vocal about Legate being "clear" most of the game, as far as I can tell, and the no-lynch being the optimal strategy was fairly clear from the beginning - no reason a canny wolf couldn't pounce on that to seem innocent. That's only a "maybe", though. I think, after yesterday's attempt to throw shade on me alongside Kuru out of nowhere, Lommy's probably more likely to be the third wolf. I'd probably prefer a Kuru/Boro/Lommy lynch order.

I'll go on record again as not particularly wanting to vote for Lottie a fourth time in a row. But at this point, she's already got a vote (albeit from a probable wolf) and it's better to capitalize at this point in the game.

++Lottie 4 repz.... again, I guess
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Old 11-02-2016, 03:19 PM   #236
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Firstly, let's examine the Herbalist. I believe the Herbalist had one save. The reason for this is slightly meta, but I think it's fairly strong - if the Herbalist had more than one save, it becomes nearly impossible for the wolves to win in this setup.
Sounds like a stymied and frustrated wolf to me.

Quote:
In either case, the wolves need mislynches in order to win.
Hence the frustration. The Ward's initial adopted tactic of not lynching was specifically designed to counter this problem.

Quote:
What I think happened is this. The wolves deliberately targeted no-one two Nights ago. Kuru then claimed to be demoralized - no one counterclaimed him, because the wolves didn't actually target anyone. When he (obviously) didn't die toDay, well, that must have been the Herbalist's second save, right? Presto! Cleared innocent Kuru.
Why would the wolves fail to make a demoralization choice when as you say...

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As already has been established, the wolves only get 5 kills this game. Combine that with the delayed kill (establishing cleared innocents every day), the ability to no-lynch (denying the wolves possible mislynches), and an Herbalist with two saves, and you end up with the wolves only having three chances to take down the Bard and Herbalist (and that's not even factoring in possible Bard saves).
Failing to make demoralization choices could easily lead the wolves into a position where it is physically impossible for them to win.

The alternative is this risky scenario where for some reason I concoct this plan to become a known innocent so that...I as a wolf am unable to win the game because there are no longer enough possible kills...

That does not compute.

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I admit to skimming a bit in order to get my post in as quickly as I could. Reading back, I see Lal has already mentioned the possibility of a wolf no-kill and Kuru claiming to be demoralized. It's a good thought.
Or a sign of a plot developed in the NIGHT so that the wolves will be on the same page and saying the same thing during the DAY attacking one of the players that poses the greatest threat to them.

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Old 11-02-2016, 03:21 PM   #237
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which is flip-floppy in and of itself, in my opinion. If you think Boro is "far from trustworthy", it seems to me as though you'd want to lynch him. But you obviously don't.
Can only lynch one at a time.

Priorities and probabilities.
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Old 11-02-2016, 03:27 PM   #238
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Failing to make demoralization choices could easily lead the wolves into a position where it is physically impossible for them to win.

The alternative is this risky scenario where for some reason I concoct this plan to become a known innocent so that...I as a wolf am unable to win the game because there are no longer enough possible kills...

That does not compute.
Risk vs. reward, which I'm sure you know all about - giving up one kill attempt -that has a major drawback in clearing someone, and isn't strictly necessary in any case, as today's situation proves - in order to set yourself up to enjoy major influence on the better method of killing (as you did, with Inzil's lynch). And, also, look at the situation you're in today, as has been pointed out - one vote away from winning the game entirely. Not a bad return on giving up one kill attempt, wouldn't you say?
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Old 11-02-2016, 03:28 PM   #239
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Why would the wolves fail to make a demoralization choice
Same reason the innocents would "fail" to lynch someone. Different strategies for different setups.
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Old 11-02-2016, 03:32 PM   #240
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So I think we can further confirm Lottie and Kuru are innocent. That makes me feel a teeny bit less worried about the option of Legate being a wolf after all, because these two have been his most adamant supporters.

Boro is kinda... ominous?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuru
I haven't had time toDAY to run a numbers scenario, and I am not sure that I will. That being said, I am not sure not-lynching is a winning strategy for the Ward at this point. To borrow the analogy from Thucydides, by starting to lynch we have taken a tiger by the tail (our lynches might be wrong). It might have been dangerous for us to seize the tiger by the tail but it is more dangerous for us to let it go now (i.e. the only way for us to correct a bad lynch at this point is a correct lynch).
Please, let's not start the not lynching business again. Until the game is over we won't know if it was a smart move or not, but I'm 99% sure it's not a smart move now, and it's very frustrating in any case.

Shasta's interesting? His outside-the-box thinking does make him look better in my eyes, even though I feel like Inzil-Shasta would have been a very likely wolf combo.

General thoughts at this point? I still think Legate the Benevolent Mastermind and Lalaith the Clueless (sorry dears) feel innocent, but I'm not leaving them out of my calculations. Shasta? Not so sure, especially if Inzil was indeed a wolf. Boro? Has hardly been here but the little we have seen isn't particularly convincing. I kinda agree with Kuru that lynching Boro would be a huge shot in the dark, but I don't like the idea of an inactive Borowolf being given a pass just because of his inactivity either. If Boro and Shasta are packmates, Shasta's recent attack on Boro could be a wolf-on-wolf distancing attempt. Note he puts Kuru first in his suspicions.

Yeah, so kinda leaning towards Inzil-Shasta-Boro at the moment, even though there's a lot of unsure in that. Of course the obvious solution is often wrong, so I definitely hope it's not something like Legate-Lalaith-Kuru.

I definitely want to hear more from Boro, (and also Lalaith). Like, if Boro doesn't post more I might advocate lynching him just because he's a liability.....


edit: xed with Kuru's #236 and onwards
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