Werewolf XLII: The meaning of life forever

[Brinniel]

Are you kidding me? No one's posted since I've been to class?

Well, this sucks. Because I have to catch a train in 15 minutes. I wanted to take a closer look at someone else besides Lommy and Nogrod, but no else has posted enough for me to get a good read toDay.

The only other person I can look at besides them is Menel. Still not sure whether he's telling the truth or not, but I'm more inclined to think he is since I don't think a wolf would just blurt something out like that with no real good cause. So, I don't see a reason to vote for him toDay.

Lommy or Nogrod? I'm not sure which one to believe...both could easily be lying about their roles. Nogrod's plan is not foolproof as he originally thought and even if Lommy were the defender, she wouldn't know until toMorrow if she caught a wolf or not. I feel more inclined to believe Nogrod because his case is a stronger one and I've been suspicious of Lommy's strange behaviour for some time. But I still can't be sure...if I choose to trust Nogrod with attacking Lommy toNight and he turns out to be a wolf...then we could be headed for some trouble.

++Nogrod

If Nogrod is telling the truth, he will take down a wolf with him and we will know both their roles for sure. If he is lying, we lynch a wolf and keep a Defender. So, though we might lose a gifted, it's still a win-win situation. This is the only solution I can think of so that we know their roles for sure. And quite honestly, it'd be nice to know the roles of some players for sure...then we'll certainly have some real substance to analyse.

Really sorry that I have to rush my vote...but I've gotta go.

Hopefully, I'll be around toMorrow.

[Thinlómien]

I've reread Gil, Sally and Kath's Day, but I'm afraid it was of little assistance.

Sally was very confusing and seemed to be somewhat confused too. Normally, behaviour like her current one would make me think her innocent, but with Sally, it's just typical. Also, those pairings of hers were definitely strange - for example, what's the point of pairing me and McCaber up if there's nothing that suggests we're wolves together? - but again, with anyone else, I'd say it's wolvish, but with Sally, I just can't tell. I can't read her at all.

Kath? Something in her chattery way is slightly wolvish, but there's nothing in her posts that would actually indicate to her being one. She is one of those persons who should be watched closely through the game at even it doesn't always help. I very often suspect Kath from early on and now that once-so-familiar feeling is not there. I wonder if it means anything.

Gil... well obviously no data. Unlike so many here, I don't really see why a non-participator couldn't be a wolf. But the fact that it's possible doesn't make it true or even probable.

So I guess I'm as undecided as I was before looking back to that trial day.

I'd love to take a closer look at Zali and Valier, I hope I will have time to do it. (I'll be away for a few hours now.)

I will almost 100% certainly vote Nogrod toDay though, as it seems to be the most logical cause. He is the only one whose guilt I can be certain of.

edit: xed with Brinn

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, I think I'll cast my vote:

++Valier

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Ow, my brain. Someone is lying here.

I think the only way to find out at least some of the truth of this situation is to vote Noggie. If he dies and no one else does, we lose a wolf. If he dies and Lommy dies, too, we'll lose a wolf. Either way, there's one less wolf to worry about.

It's risky.



...As a heads up, I posted this in the other thread, but I'm going to mention it here in case no one checks. I'm going to have to vote in a little over an hour, since I'll be leaving for class, and I won't be back until about half an hour after the deadline. It stinks, but it's the way my Tuesdays and Thursdays are. Sorry, all.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

And just to clarify--

What I meant by "It's risky" is that if Noggie is telling the truth, we lose not only a wolf but another innocent, and the wolves are already in higher numbers than any of us would like to see.

[Kath]

So what is it now, three revelations? Let's have a quick look-see, and bear in mind I'll probably use the wrong terms as I am getting a little confused between the right ones.

Nogrod as Hunter ~ I'm inclined to believe this because he revealed so, so early. I can quite believe he could be such a bold wolf, but I so often feel certain that he is guilty and yet even before this revelation I didn't find him suspicious.

Menel as Ranger ~ I'm almost certain this is true. I think I can see the reasoning behind it and it does make some sense. I am not so sure of his deduction regarding Valier and Legate, although during Sally and my discussion about Legate I think I did come to the conclusion that he was innocent so I can see the logic behind his vote.

Lommy as Seer ~ it just doesn't look believable. She was quiet after Nog's revelation and then suddenly pops up with this.

There have been suggestions that we lynch either Nog or Lommy but I really don't want to do that. If we lynch Nog and he takes down Lommy then we lose two toDay and one toNight, with 2/3 of those being innocents. If we lynch Lommy and she really is the Seer we lose a Gifted and with so many wolves I don't think we can afford to do that.

So I basically want to ignore those two until we see the outcome of toNight.

[Kath]

I might have to floodpost a little here as I don't have an enormous amount of time. I will also warn that I will have to vote early, only but a couple of hours though. I think then that it's a good idea to look at what happened on the other days:

Day 1: Legate, Menel and Valier
Now, I consider Legate innocent and I believe Menel with his revelation so I guess I would have to consider Valier suspicious here. And indeed there were some odd things in her behaviour:

Ok let's say I was a wolf (which I'm not, seriously).

There is no need for that validation, why put it unless you have something to hide.
Also there's quite a sudden switch in opinion, as she suspected Menel throughout most of the Day yet finally voted for Legate. I'm aware that it was partly to save her own skin but I still think it's odd.
I am wary about this though, as it is highly possible that Legate was in fact a wolf. Just because I think he is innocent doesn't mean I can discount him.

Day 2: McCaber, Naria and Roa
This was an odd Day. I really don't like that McCaber failed to vote. He spent the whole time Roa was there being suspicious of Naria and then suddenly he isn't even there to vote? Naria was very, very jumpy. She said there was no way to get herself out of a lynch but that's not true, if she had been calm and managed to convince McCaber of Roa's guilt. But I just don't know where to assign roles here. Roa's 'oh woe is me' talk could have been equally innocent or guilty. Naria's jumpiness could equally be a sign of a scared wolf or a frustrated innocent. And McCaber. Well of the three I have the most suspicion of him simply for failing to vote, but there can so often be other reasons. I just can't make up my mind about this Day.

Day 3: Agan, Ka, Shasta
This Day makes sense. Shasta barely spoke and the other two voted for someone who didn't make much of an effort rather than someone who did. Doesn't mean though that they were right. It would be odd for a wolf to be the quiet one when they had seen in the previous Day that not being around was likely to mean you got voted for. Which suggests to me that Ka or Agan is our wolf.
Ka made an odd comment about looking hard at Agan because she made good posts, it sounded like she was going to be suspicious of her despite being helpful. In addition, Agan looks pretty innocent to me and came up with some good points about Lommy. So here I would have Ka as the wolf.

Day 4: Lommy, Might and Nog
I've discussed this. At the moment I have Lommy as the wolf here.

Day 5: sally, Kath and Gil
With no Gil we had little choice. I saw nothing suspicious in Sally, I don't think she saw anything suspicious in me. Still, with nothing from Gil it's impossible to know whether he was the wolf or not. Another Day where I can't decide anything.

Day 6: Zali, Brinn, Groin
Brinn said quite a lot and although I disagree with quite a chunk of it, it was at least well reasoned. Same goes for Zali actually. From the posts I wonder if toDay was the Day where a wolf was lynched. Groin's comments were very, very odd with some flip-flopping and some apparent misunderstandings. I would have pegged him as the wolf in that trio.

Day 7: Greenie, Izzy, Rikae
Then again, this looks like a Day where a wolf was lynched. Greenie saying that Izzy looked more suspicious than Rikae yet then suddenly turning round and trying to lynch Rik the second she voted for her is suspicious.

So my wolf list stands as:
Lommy
Valier
MCaber
Ka

I think in that order too. But I still don't want to lynch Lommy toDay. Yet I'm not sure who else to vote for. I'm going to hang around for a little while, watch the posting and try to make my mind up.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Unfortunately, I have to vote now. I haven't got the time to make a detailed analysis of all the players today, which is unfortunate because it might lead me to a better decision.

I'm going to make a leap of faith here. I believe Nogrod, and I don't want to lynch him just to prove his status.

As we stand right now, there are five wolves, I believe, to 9 innocents/gifteds combined. Those are pretty steep odds. If we lynch Noggie and he takes care of Lommy, we'd stand 4 wolves to 8 innocents at the end of the Day, and 4 wolves to 7 innocents going into toMorrow, assuming there is a kill. If we lynch a wolf toDay, we'll be 9 to 4 at the end of today, and possibly 9 to 3 toMorrow, if Noggie does his job. Much better odds.

Anyway. I'm going to vote for

++McCaber

Because out of all the players here, he's probably the one about whom my gut instinct is strongest. It's not a choice I want to make--I'd far rather wait and see how things play out, possibly hear more from him, etc. There's just something a little off about him.

I don't want to spread the vote out as far as it has been already...but I am not certain enough to lynch Valier, and I'd rather let Noggie make a decision he's sure of toNight.

Anyway, I really have to dash. I'm sorry I can't stick around longer and make a better-informed decision.

[Aganzir]

Sorry it took me this long to arrive.

In any other situation, I wouldn't have believed Noggie's claim because he and the way he introduced himself look so plain suspicious. (Well, I admit there's also a tendency to believe those who come out first, but I'm not speaking only about myself now.)

Lommy is a wolf; her way to react to suspicion and just the way she posts convinced me long before her sudden seer revelation. I think we should lynch her today. I find it unlikely that the wolves will attack a hunter who may be protected, and if Nog doesn't need to take care of Lommy now, he will have a chance to kill a wolf later.
And voting Nog is the worst possible idea at the moment! If we kill him now, he will take one wolf with him, but his ability to attack is also something to consider...

Originally Posted by Lommy

So being all the time in character is suspicious in principle and that's why you think I'm a wolf who thinks THE Ka suspicious and thus defends her? Did it cross your mind I don't necessarily think the same way you do, so your conclusions on my behaviour might not be valid?

No, that's not what I think, and don't twist my words. I was speaking about what kind of impression I got from your posts, and that impression includes the idea that you thought like that.
I must say I was pretty surprised to see you're so aggressively defending yourself against reasons that have nothing solid to back them up, only feelings.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Aganzir stands out a little more in my mind because she was the first to state she'd rather vote Shasta because Ka contributes, and that reasoning just doesn't seem very good to me.

And may I ask what you would have done in a situation where both of your contestants look rather innocent, one posts and the other doesn't.

Originally Posted by Menel

You say, Nogrod, that Lommy must be a Wolf since you clearly aren't one. Yet I'm afraid I cannot blindly trust you on that. What evidence do you have that could point toward your innocence?

This is about as wolfy as it possibly could be. "Oops Nog, you've caught my fellow! Surely you don't happen to be a gifted, willing to come forward?"
I don't believe Menel's claim. I think a ranger should have absolutely no reason to come forward now. The wolves couldn't have known if there was a ranger alive, and with good luck they would have attacked Nogrod who would have been protected.
Besides, I think Legate looked like a panicking gifted in his last posts.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

To begin with I'd say that Shasta is/was innocent.

You're even a better player than I imagined if you can figure that out from Shasta's posts.

Of the dead, Legate, Roa and Greenie looked all quite innocent, though Greenie less so after her sudden turn on Rikae (or, the turn was understandable but the way she put it plainly weird). I agree with Nog that Groin might have been a wolf. Lommy's reaction would point at that, and at least to me he looked rather suspicious anyway. About Shasta and Gil I can't say anything.

I don't like Brinn's flip-flopping. I can understand why she voted for Nog, but how she came to that conclusion looks rather suspicious indeed. She looks actually somewhat cobblerish.

Originally Posted by Rikae

However, if Nogrod is not dead toMorrow, we have to lynch him, regardless of Lommy's role, which we won't know for certain anyway - because if he was the wolf and we let him live toMorrow, we lose the game.

I fail to see why.

I find myself disagreeing with Rikae about almost everything, but she feels rather innocent and I'm inclined to trust in her for now.

Originally Posted by sally

I've not played that much with Legate, but I don't believe he would make that much of a fuss if he was a wolf.

While I agree with you that Legate looks innocent, I don't think that's a very good reason to think so. If Legate was a wolf, the best he could do when it was obvious that he would be lynched was to make himself look as innocent as possible - so that we would concentrate on the innocents of their trial day instead of his wolf mates.

Now, the way Isabell dismisses the gifted claims is weird.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Do you wish me to come out with his/her name? I can redream of him/her next Night and if I survive, we'll have a second wolf spotted with good luck.

I'm actually rather interested to see whom Lommy would like us to look at.

McCaber was really trying to be Roa's friend as long as she was alive. I can understand if he had a RL reason for failing to vote, but... Now he comes and tells he would have voted Roa, the player considered more dangerous, even though it looked like he was going to vote Naria rather than her the whole day. Trying to make friends with Naria now? I find him suspicious.

edit: xed with Kath and Zali

[THE Ka]

Okay, thought I'd steal some time and actually make a post. Sorry for not being available.
Neither do I have much time to make a real analysis of everything, as everyone seems to have popped off with something.

Okay, well first things first. I was really, really surprised Nogrod (if it is true, at all) voiced his role. It's either the truth, or it is a crafty lie. Playing such a role, let alone the position of a special is tricky, since most are inclined to simply vote you along the ordo-wolf scale of judgement. Which makes some sense in this case. Anyways, it doesn't seem as easy to just voice a role, come up with a plan why, and then excuse suspicion.

Also, what would happen if another Ranger decided to protect Lommy instead? Since Menel, if he is a Ranger, seems to have decided upon Nogrod. If this happens, along with Menel's decision, that plan goes out the window for good.
Or, one of the rangers will find out whether they can protect either one of them.
Then letting that little tid bit be known is entirely up to them.

I dunno if anyone has thought of this, but there are other positions as well in the special role that allow protecting (if their person of interest can be). I am guessing in this, just because it seems to be of immediate concern to myself.
Unless Nogrod either got to the punch first, or was able to tell someone else who'd he be apparently attacking.
Nogrod's plan, or the position of it seems too marytrish, even for a guardian. Then again, so does Lommy's as well.

I don't think I'd want to vote for either as of yet, simply because of the confidentuality of finding their roles out, and whether his plan is actually going to work out.
If his plan does go ahead, it is still told to a random player, who may or may not choose to reveal Lommy's role or anything else they know, unless they thought and felt themselves threatened. Then with that, the rest of us still do not know roles, and which random one of us was told so.

I have to look at this all again of course, since I was an idiot and decided to pop in late and underestimated how much time I really had yesterday.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, if we can trust both Menel and Nogrod, I will eat my hat.

I'll throw my shoes, my car and 30lbs art history book into that bet too. I know they're charming now, but I've played with Nogrod at least once before, and I am not going to doubt his ability again. Even if I had to leave early from the game, still... It just isn't the brightest of ideas. As for Menel, hmm. I haven't played with him before if I remember correctly. Though, in any other games I know that he is easy to suspect at first. I will defiantely have to look at his posts again.

Originally Posted by Kath

Ka made an odd comment about looking hard at Agan because she made good posts

Because even though I've never played with Agan before, I can recognise someone who has an aptitude for being productive, but invisible and cunning as well. I meant it as a message of sorts, because for a long time I was inclined to vote for Agan because of her behavior. Either she won me over with her arguement that day, or I decided that leaving the votes in both directions would be of benefit to no one. Or, Shasta could have popped in, and voted for Agan or myself, more likely the latter. If Agan is playing a good wolf, then well, my hat is off and I make a bow of recognition, not of flattery.

So here I would have Ka as the wolf.

That is fine. Though of course, it will be of no consequence to m'self after night 2, or any other night here after.
And no, I am not going to elaborate beyond that, or my role or whatever. Just because I speak one way doesn't mean I'm entirely rotten to the core with being vague. Sometimes little things are the biggest when you pull the magnifying glass away. I don't have much to hide really, and am too nice to care.


I am off now for a bit, I have job applications to finish and class as well. I should be able to return before the deadline and read over the posts again, and possibly make a vote.


~ Ka

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Agan

McCaber was really trying to be Roa's friend as long as she was alive. I can understand if he had a RL reason for failing to vote, but... Now he comes and tells he would have voted Roa, the player considered more dangerous, even though it looked like he was going to vote Naria rather than her the whole day. Trying to make friends with Naria now? I find him suspicious.

See the things I don't catch when I'm asleep?

Seriously though, this is a really good point. I seriously thought that McCaber was going to vote for Naria on trial day, and then when he left the lynch up to chance I felt incredibly uneasy. But his stated opinion is contrary to his actions on his trial day. In other words, he's a little too slippery and flippery for my taste. I'm still torn between him and Valier, but the more I think about McCaber the more uneasy I feel....



I'll still be around the site for about another hour, then I need to head to work and such. I'll wait as long as possible to vote but I know for sure it'll be at least an hour and a half before deadline. Cursed work. But for now I leave you to your thoughts....

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Lommy as Seer ~ it just doesn't look believable. She was quiet after Nog's revelation and then suddenly pops up with this.

Kath. Two hours before Nog "came out" I went to sleep and said that I'll be away for a long time, possibly for as much as 15 hours. When Nogrod made his "revelation" it was almost 1am our time, my computer was off and I was soundly asleep and I only saw his posts many hours later. That is why I didn't come out earlier.

Originally Posted by Kath

There have been suggestions that we lynch either Nog or Lommy but I really don't want to do that. If we lynch Nog and he takes down Lommy then we lose two toDay and one toNight, with 2/3 of those being innocents. If we lynch Lommy and she really is the Seer we lose a Gifted and with so many wolves I don't think we can afford to do that.

So I basically want to ignore those two until we see the outcome of toNight.

The outcome won't tell anything. You will only hear that I'm dead and Nogrod will claim I was a wolf and you haven't gained proof of anything, only lost a Defender. Don't you see that? Or, from another point of view: even if I was a wolf and Nogrod was a guardian, my death wouldn't help you at all. You wouldn't still know if you can trust Nogrod or not. Thereby it's utter folly to leave me to be killed by Nogrod and his fellows: not only because you'll lose a Defender, but also because my death won't tell you anything.

That post of yours made me immediately suspect you Kath. That ill-reasoned suggestion sounds like the talk of a wolf or a cobbler.

If we lynch Nogrod and he is a wolf, someone of us (not necessarily anyone that can be trusted though) will know his role and can tell it. We will get rid of a wolf.
If we lynch Nogrod and he is a guardian like he claims, he will take me with him and that action itself will prove his innocence and my guilt. We will get rid of a wolf.
If we lynched me, someone of us will know that I truly was a Defender and that Nogrod was a wolf. We won't get rid of a wolf.
If we lynched me and I was a wolf, someone would be informed of that too and we'd get rid of a wolf.
See?

We should get rid of this lying and confusion-causing Noggiewolf, and rather sooner than later. Even for you who cannot know the facts, lynching him toDay is the surest option.

Originally Posted by Agan

No, that's not what I think, and don't twist my words. I was speaking about what kind of impression I got from your posts, and that impression includes the idea that you thought like that.

I never twist words intentionally. I did not understand you meant that, because, to put it bluntly, you phrased it quite unclearly then. And if you got that kind of impression from my posts, well, you're quite quick to jump to conclusions. Wolfishly quick?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm actually rather interested to see whom Lommy would like us to look at.

Ok. Other opinions? I'm quite torn whether I should reveal it or not, because with bad luck I'm exposing a gifted and with good luck it's a wolf... Should we take chances?

edit: xed with Sally and THE Ka

[Kath]

Lommy I just have a problem trusting anything you're saying. I get the time thing, I must admit that I hadn't seen that you said you were leaving, but you feel very different to me and I find much in what you post suspicious.

However, someone popped up with some stats and it looked to me like leaving the thing with you and Nog for the Day was a far better idea than lynching either of you.

Now, I have to vote because I need to leave and my vote is going to go to:

++VALIER

Next to Lommy I am most suspicious of her for the reasons stated earlier.

[satansaloser2005]

Quite honestly, if there's any person I'd care to NOT lynch, it's Noggie. At least, not toDay. I still quite believe him about being a gifted, and yet I won't deny there's something funny about him. As I've stated, I'd prefer to lynch Val or McCaber as they are my top suspects. And frankly, if Lommie is indeed a seer, I'd hate to lose her, though odds are if both Lommie and Noggie survive toDay, one of them will die tonight. Gah, decisions, decisions! I'm going off to think about this more.

[satansaloser2005]

It occured to me that I should explain that last post a bit. I want to kill Noggie,....I mean....oh you understand. I find him odd and I think we'll need to solve the Noggie mystery eventually, but I don't think now's the time to do it. If he is the guardian and the wolves are silly enough to kill him during the night, then he dies and takes (hopefully) a wolf with him. Leave Noggie alive at least for today and let's try and catch us a wolf and shrink their numbers. Then tomorrow if necessary we can take care of Lommie or Noggie.

[Nogrod]

Okay I'm back and even if I haven't had time to read all there has happened since I last visited it looks like there is some folly swirling around this place...

I don't ask you to trust me. How could you? Trust the sense in my proposal: I will kill Lommy this Night. Also the wolves will kill toNight. Two kills then. That's only possible if the Guardian (me) made the other kill as the wolves only have one.

My case proven, one wolf down and a known innocent around.

If only Lommy is killed it means that either the wolves didn't kill for some unfathomable reason (why should they not kill?) or the protector saved someone. Good for us whichever the case - even if not too probable. But one wolf still down and no innocent dying.

Okay. You say I'm a wolf and we wolves kill Lommy toNight and that's why there is only one death? Well you can lynch me if you wish the next Day but I may take another wolf down when I die then. So even if you don't believe what I say then you still need to admit the endresult is the same.

It's up to you to decide whether you wish to try for better results.

You'll have no problem lynching me toMorrow if there's only one death toNight. I can help you in it if you wish.

I'll try to read now what has been said since I left...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I never twist words intentionally. I did not understand you meant that, because, to put it bluntly, you phrased it quite unclearly then. And if you got that kind of impression from my posts, well, you're quite quick to jump to conclusions. Wolfishly quick?

Ok, after rereading what I wrote I admit I was being rather unclear. But if I have a feeling someone is a wolf, I do tend to say that aloud.

Voting record
Brinn: Nog
Menel: Valier
Zali: McCaber
Kath: Valier
(Val-2, Nog-1, Caber-1)

Where's Valier? She hasn't spoken a word today, has she?

Nog, why is the thought of lynching Lommy now so undesirable to you?

I'll do some reading now and hopefully get a clearer image of Caber.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, I'm preparing to leave, so I need to vote. I simply can't make up my mind between Val and McCaber. Under other circumstances I wouldn't do this, but since there are no double lynches in this game I'll go with....

++McCaber

If for no other reason than to increase his chances of getting lynched. I'll probably be happy with either a McCaber or a Valier kill though. Just putting my vote where I feel it will be best used.

I'll stick around for like ten more minutes and see how things progress, but don't expect any more posts from me unless I think I need to put something in really quickly.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Agan

Nog, why is the thought of lynching Lommy now so undesirable to you?

Possibly because then someone would know he was lying?

In principle, there is no problem if Nogrod's lynch takes place toMorrow instead of toDay, but as I'm afraid I will die next Night, I'd rather see him dead now. Why? Because we're losing already. If it really doesn't matter if we kill a mastermind like Nogrod toDay or toMorrow, why not do it toDay, and "steal" the wolves one chance of negotiating with such a cunning fellow as Nogrod? Also, seeing how his honeyed tongue has affected people toDay, I'm afraid that if we leave him alive, he will speak his way out of the trouble toMorrow when I'm not there to stop him anymore. I'm sorry, I don't want to underestimate anyone here, but it seems like the big majority of this village is easily lead by Nogrod and his nonsense.

Lastly, if we get rid of Nogrod now, it will save us from focusing all the attention on him toMorrow and by toMorrow, there might be other known or heavily suspected wolves around, so I really think we should lynch Nogrod toDay. I will vote for him unless I must vote someone else to save myself.

edit: xed with Sally

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Nog, why is the thought of lynching Lommy now so undesirable to you?

I do not think it undesirable. We get rid of a wolf and that's good for our numbers. But there's the minus point that you others will not know she was a wolf and I have less sure times toNight as I need to find out another one I'm sure enough to actively kill.

If you let me do it during the Night it's all clear - unlike Lommy tries to mislead you. And as I said I'm pretty ready to be lynched then if there's no second kill. You are yet better off then as no innocent died on Night2.

Someone speculated about our possibilities of gaining information of the identities of the killed ones. In this game anyone can say anything and with no roles revealed no one can trust these revelations unless in very improbable circumstances. With my actions you gain some solid information as the Guardian is the only one who can perform a Night-kill alongside wolves.

And as I said we don't lose anything if you give me a go with Lommy. I mean I didn't think I would one Day say that I'm in total agreement with Kath: there's nothing one should believe in there. I'll give you a couple of points from there soon.

I must admit that earlier today I for a moment thought that there was a slight chance the Might could have been a wolf and all this was a giant mistake but now Lommy's preposterous claim nailed her for me and I'm 100% certain of her (okay, unless Volo fooled us all and put two gifteds in the same round... but that would be a bit too much even for this game).

EDIT: X'd with Lommywolf

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Also, seeing how his honeyed tongue has affected people toDay

How desperate does one get? "Honey-tongued"? Me? Of all the people?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How desperate does one get? "Honey-tongued"? Me? Of all the people?

Forgive my broken English, I would not, of course, claim that your manner or wording is particularly smooth or sweet - I know you too well for that - but what I was trying to imply is that the action behind your words is smooth and sweet. Yes, honey is the wrong word. You can't phrase your wolvish things smoothly&sweetly like honey, but rather make nonsense sound reasonable and can definitely use rhetorics to your own advantage. Was that a better phrasing?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I do not think it undesirable. We get rid of a wolf and that's good for our numbers. But there's the minus point that you others will not know she was a wolf and I have less sure times toNight as I need to find out another one I'm sure enough to actively kill.

I think it's quite clear to everybody that she's a wolf and I doubt the one to receive her role would dare to lie about it, even if a wolf or cobbler.
But think it this way. If we lynch her today, everybody will know we caught a wolf. If we lynch someone else, their role can be easily lied. You will know the role of the one you kill for sure. I think we gain more if we lynch her now and you kill someone else at night.

edit: And then she wouldn't have a chance to discuss with her fellows tonight either. Xed with Lommy.

[Thinlómien]

And I'd rather not take this mirror style back again, but if you're talking of being desperate, just look at what kind of points you're throwing at me: "she phrased this badly, therefore she must be a wolf!"



edit: xed with Agan

[Isabellkya]

I am confused as to why people still seem to think that we will absolutely for sure know what the lynched player's role is. Even when Volo made a clarifying post about it. That yes the lynched player's role will randomly be revealed to another player.. yet it doesn't mean they will be alive, nor does it mean they will be a gifted or ordo.

I don't know if you play werewolf anywhere else Aganzir.. but I do. It has been said since I started playing here. With that.. just because someone reveals their role on the thread, does not in any way make it true. Too often, wolves/baddies reveal their 'role' on the thread as a tactic.. to save themselves. They reveal roles which are hard to prove. Why? Because more often than not, when someone reveals, the villagers get a zombie-like response and want to put absolute faith into such a claim. Especially when the reveal is that of a seer. I would rather look at the claim combined with everything else, than trust it blindly.

Because trust is the ultimate luxury in werewolf games, and too often is trust misplaced.

At the moment, I'm leaning more towards Sally than Nog/Lommy mainly because I get the feeling of unease when I read her posts. It is the 'clarifying' posts which follow her posts which doesn't really sit right.

Anywhoo, I'll continue reading.

X'd with Lommy, Aganzir, Lommy.

[Thinlómien]

When Nogrod is done with, lynch his fellow Aganzir next. Just look at that:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think it's quite clear to everybody that she's a wolf and I doubt the one to receive her role would dare to lie about it, even if a wolf or cobbler.

That is quite outrageously boldly wolvish. Now, if you lynch me toDay, the one who receives my role will not dare to come out with it, because s/he'll be afraid everyone will think her/him a wolf or a cobbler because of that!

I can't believe you actually wrote that, Agan. First time in my life I probably caught Wolfanzir. Wow.

Now, even if you others aren't as confident as I am that this comment proves Agan's guilt, please don't forget about it and take it into account when you're forming your opinion of her.

When I'm gone, please don't forget the connection between Nog and Agan... it's curiously friendship-like.

edit: xed with Izzie

[Aganzir]

Lommy you make me laugh. You're so sweet.

Bah, I think I should be concentrating on my Caberlysis rather than stalking the last page.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I fail to see why.

Because we are 9:5 now, and if we lynch an innocent today out of trust for Nogrod (sure, it's possible we'll lynch a wolf too, but an innocent is more likely), and he kills a Lommy tonight and is not killed himself, tomorrow we're left with 5:7 if Lommy was not a wolf (and if she was not, Nogrod is). We'll have to lynch a wolf then or lose (if Lommy wasn't one - if she was, we'd be 4:8), and only when both Nogrod and Lommy are gone can we be certain we got one - IF we trust Nogrod.

I'm sorry I didn't have time to do the analysis I would have liked, but in light of Lommy's words it's not relevant at the moment anyway. Here are the options, as I see them:

Nogrod is a wolf, Lommy is a seer, and we lynch Nogrod toDay:
We're rid of a wolf and a seer may live to dream another night. The fact that there is no other death will prove Nogrod was lying.

Nogrod is a wolf, Lommy is a seer, and we don't lynch Nogrod toDay:
Good chance of lynching an innocent toDay, toMorrow our seer is dead, but we don't even know this for certain, and Nog-wolf may survive (judging from Aganzir's words, may very likely survive.)

Nogrod is a hunter, Lommy is a wolf, and we lynch Nogrod toDay:
Both will die, and we will know both roles by this fact.

Nogrod is a hunter, Lommy is a wolf, and we don't lynch Nogrod toDay:
Lommy dies toNight, Nogrod may or may not, and we're none the wiser if he doesn't.

It's the only way we're certain to both catch a wolf and know it:

++Nogrod

[Rikae]

Incidentally, I find Aganzir's behavior unsettling toDay too (crossed with Lommy above.)
Lommy may indeed be a wolf, but Aganzir, according to what I've just said, is simply not acting in the best interests of the village. She's pushing a decision that will leave us ignorant.

[Nogrod]

Okay Lommy chose then to portray herself as a Defender (seer) then. How nice. And also she had the good luck of hitting a non-ordo. Even better. How come the most important things? Although you forgot the fact that we can't trust anyone here with their word and that makes the defender in the worst scenario quite a redundant person here. The only one who can prove his role is the Guardian as he can do things others can't. I can show it to you the next Night. If you follow Lommy's advice there's nothing that could tell you whether what she told you was true or not. Anyone can pose as whatever they wish and we still won't know about even if they die.

Originally Posted by Thinwolf

And I'd rather not take this mirror style back again, but if you're talking of being desperate, just look at what kind of points you're throwing at me: "she phrased this badly, therefore she must be a wolf!"

I'm just gearing up... It's funny you tend to concentrate all the minor sidenotes and jokes but not the actual suspicions. That's understandable but also something one can see quite easily through...

Originally Posted by Lupine-Lommy

Or, from another point of view: even if I was a wolf and Nogrod was a guardian, my death wouldn't help you at all. You wouldn't still know if you can trust Nogrod or not. Thereby it's utter folly to leave me to be killed by Nogrod and his fellows: not only because you'll lose a Defender, but also because my death won't tell you anything.

No and no. Two kills on Night2 will prove everything. And as I said before: if the Protector manages a save which is even better I'm ready to be lynched toMorrow as we have gotten out of the worst situation and I might take one of the wolves with me when I go.

That post of yours made me immediately suspect you Kath. That ill-reasoned suggestion sounds like the talk of a wolf or a cobbler.

A cobbler? What?

If we lynch Nogrod and he is a wolf, someone of us (not necessarily anyone that can be trusted though) will know his role and can tell it.

And who do you think could be trusted with a claim? And seriously there would be another proof then: your death with my hammer.

If we lynch Nogrod and he is a guardian like he claims, he will take me with him and that action itself will prove his innocence and my guilt. We will get rid of a wolf.

Correct. But we lose the chance of my known innocence to come forwards...

I can see though where she's coming from in these two. The wolves have now a nice advantage in numbers so they could afford "sacrifying" Lommy (and she would do it) to prevent me from making more damage to them later.

Originally Posted by Lommy on lynching me

Even for you who cannot know the facts, lynching him toDay is the surest option.

It's our surest option to minimal damage for the wolves and the village losing a chance to have a known innocent even for a Day in this village where no one can trust any claim as there are no roles revealed as shared...

Okay. I need to look at some other things as well...

If the wolves manage to orchestrate my lynch toDay I need to have a good candidate to hunt as I will surely leave Lommywolf for you to lynch toMorrow if I just have a believable better candidate. After you see me killing one (hopefully a wolf) as I go then you know I spoke the truth and no wolf should be able to talk you out of lynching Lommy toMorrow.

EDIT: X'd with Rikae. I might just consider you as my target toDay... But I must read your post first...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Quite honestly, if there's any person I'd care to NOT lynch, it's Noggie. At least, not toDay. I still quite believe him about being a gifted, and yet I won't deny there's something funny about him.

If he is indeed a hunter, he can do us the most good if he is lynched now. He can only kill one wolf, and if he does so by day, we will know the wolf's role and his and have something to analyze.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

EDIT: X'd with Rikae. I might just consider you as my target toDay... But I must read your post first...

You don't frighten me, and your threats make me trust you far less. Why not use your kill where you're "certain" you willl hit a wolf, eh?
If you have a kill at all, go ahead and kill me.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay Lommy chose then to portray herself as a Defender (seer) then. How nice. And also she had the good luck of hitting a non-ordo. Even better. How come the most important things? Although you forgot the fact that we can't trust anyone here with their word and that makes the defender in the worst scenario quite a redundant person here. The only one who can prove his role is the Guardian as he can do things others can't. I can show it to you the next Night. If you follow Lommy's advice there's nothing that could tell you whether what she told you was true or not. Anyone can pose as whatever they wish and we still won't know about even if they die.

This is a blatent lie. If you are truly the Guardian, your death will reveal your role and, by default, Lommy's as well. If not, you are a wolf, and your death without any assassination will also prove it.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

You don't frighten me, and your threats make me trust you far less. Why not use your kill where you're "certain" you willl hit a wolf, eh?
If you have a kill at all, go ahead and kill me.

That doesn't sound like an innocent speaking to be sure.

Why should I waste my hunt on Lommy if I can take someone extra with me? After my death you will have all the knowledge to lynch Lommy the next. At best two consequent wolf-lynches.

I think I really need to revise my earlier suspicions... Sorry Rikae but you're veery near my trigger now indeed and I'm even feeling quite good with it.

Try to open your eyes people... Sorry but this is getting once again a bit frustrating.

And remember: if the wolves manage to lynch me toDay and after you see I took someone with me pay close attention to those who orchestrated this thing. It will give you a nice start to your lynch-list.

[Rikae]

Nogrod, if you were truly the Guardian you would be certain about Lommy's role.
If you want to use your power instead to take me out, so be it. I stand by what I said. Our most logical approach is to lynch you toDay - it's the only way we will know for certain what is going on, and if someone else dies with you, it's too bad you might take an innocent or another gifted, but we'll know your role and Lommy's wolfishness.
Honestly, if you truly had the village's best interests at heart, I actually think you would see the sense in what I'm saying and agree to it. Instead, you choose to threaten me. Well, what I'm saying is the truth as far as I can see, and I'm going to keep saying it, threats or no.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

This is a blatent lie. If you are truly the Guardian, your death will reveal your role and, by default, Lommy's as well. If not, you are a wolf, and your death without any assassination will also prove it.

Sorry but now I don't either get your point or then you don't mine. Yes my death will prove my role. That's what I said. But it does it because of what I do when I die. No one else's role we can no for sure but the Guardian's. With "following Lommy's advice" I meant if you follow the "instructions" she will give you about the innocents, ordos or wolves... there will be no way of telling whether they were true or not.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Sorry but now I don't either get your point or then you don't mine. Yes my death will prove my role. That's what I said. But it does it because of what I do when I die. No one else's role we can no for sure but the Guardian's.

True, but only if you die. We can't be sure you will die toNight (and I think you won't, judging from your latest posts.)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

With "following Lommy's advice" I meant if you follow the "instructions" she will give you about the innocents, ordos or wolves... there will be no way of telling whether they were true or not.

But there will be. If you die alone, we know for certain Lommy is a true seer. If not, we know for certain she is a wolf.
It would be nice if you would take her with you instead of someone whose role you can't be certain about, but that would be your choice in that case.

[Aganzir]

I have included only those posts with some substance in them.

Day 0
-doesn't see any reasons to throw suspicion around yet.
-Nog is vocal, and if a wolf it will be easier to catch him.
-Valier and Groin haven't said much, and that could also work against them
-top suspects Ka and Legate (because of IC things), but since his suspicions are subjects to change, they shouldn't be valued too much.

-thanks Menel, because "Just because I don't feel a need to say everything that crosses my mind doesn't mean I'm a wolf."

I know I should be wary while analysing a new player, but McCaber has, at least in my opinion, shown quite a good understanding about how the game works. So, let's try to come to some conclusions.
I find his statement that there's no use to suspect people yet strange, mainly because it looks like a wolf who's trying to make the discussion remain in the nonsense area. But on the other hand, I know it looks a bit weird for a newbie that everybody's on one another's throats so early. I'm not going to hold saying that for or against him but I felt the need to point it out.
His reasons to suspect (or be about to suspect) someone seem rather weak indeed. And asking people not to wonder if he decides to change his suspects. Oh gosh, was it really that important that you had to say it? To me it looks like "Don't be surprised when I change my suspects after I've learned my fellow wolves."
Then, that "Just because I don't feel a need &c." Could some native (or otherwise better than me) speaker tell to me what he's saying? The only way I can decipher it looks rather suspicious.

Trial day
-Roa looks alright but too agreeable. Could be wolf trying to make allies or innocent trying not to attract attention.
-naturally suspects Naria because she hasn't said enough for him to form an opinion.
-hopes his silence won't be held against him

-doesn't have a problem with Roa's agreeability; it's rather something to think about.

-explains the reason he thanked Menel: if he said everything that occurred to him, he'd be contradicting himself and that would be a reason to suspect him.
-analyses Roa and finds her more probably ordo or gifted than a wolf. Suspects Naria more than Roa because she doesn't speak as much.

-Roa looks innocent but says there's no need to be hasty (Roa was considering voting him).

-tells Roa that he isn't trying to curry a favour by considering her innocent - doing that would eventually turn against him and he'd die.
-says he was nervous going into the trial day and still is, but thinks he has a chance to survive.

-says he suspects Naria because he can't suspect himself (interestingly formulated statement) and finds Roa innocent.

-thanks Roa and says it'd be unfair to kill Naria without hearing what she has to say first.

I think the way he tried to be in good terms with Roa looks rather bad. He states in his first post that he suspects Naria (with feeble reasons). He makes sure Roa doesn't have any reason to think he's suspecting her. Being overly nice towards Roa and a little jumpy every time she says something that might indicate she's beginning to suspect him.
When Roa has voted, he says it'd be unfair to kill Naria now before she has had a chance to speak.
While I completely agree with that, I must say that if Caber is a wolf that was quite a cunning thing to do. First he makes sure Roa doesn't vote him and then plans to lynch the player whom he considers more dangerous.

Day 1
-tells he would have voted Roa.
-> she didn't really make arguments.
-> they seemed to be allies on their trial day just because Naria wasn't there.
-> Roa had no reasons for her vote except maybe trying to gain an ally.
-> what Roa said was not what he'd expect from a player like her.
-> Naria was logical and desperate and her analyses made sense.
-suspects Lommy rather than Nog; she seems to be trying to survive by casting suspicion on others.

...And now he has a good explanation for why he would have voted Roa. He quickly backs off his earlier Roa-is-my-friend attitude, before anyone has noticed & commented on it. But what worse, he really looks like he's trying to make friends with Naria now. Well, if he's a wolf he can't be sure if Roa was a gifted, so it benefits him more to try to make Naria trust him. After all, it's often easier to believe that a player who trusts you is also innocent.

As a conclusion, Caber looks both honest and wolfy at the same time. I don't really like the way he's being so nice to players who are a possible threat to him... And while I know newbies appear suspicious rather easily, there's just something that doesn't sit right with me. Some kind of jumpiness and wariness.

edit: xed with some Noggies and Rikaes

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nogrod, if you were truly the Guardian you would be certain about Lommy's role.
If you want to use your power instead to take me out, so be it. I stand by what I said. Our most logical approach is to lynch you toDay - it's the only way we will know for certain what is going on, and if someone else dies with you, it's too bad you might take an innocent or another gifted, but we'll know your role and Lommy's wolfishness.
Honestly, if you truly had the village's best interests at heart, I actually think you would see the sense in what I'm saying and agree to it. Instead, you choose to threaten me. Well, what I'm saying is the truth as far as I can see, and I'm going to keep saying it, threats or no.

Sorry Rikae. I can see your point and the village will gain if you lynch me and I take Lommy with me. Surely. But this is also the minimal damage for the wolves. The known wolf (Lommy) and the threat (known innocent who could kill freely once, after my deed known to you all) taken away with one blow.

Otherwise they would face much more harder times.

I'm not saying I'm hunting you in the end but I need to get a look at some others as well as Lommy will be easist lynch even the number of wolves can't deny the villagers toMorrow. If I have a good hunch enough I will go that way...

But first of all I'd suggest you really leave her for me. You can't lose with that scenario.

[Thinlómien]

Ummm... am I the only one who has the feeling that Nogrod has run out of things he could say and is thus repeating things he said earlier?

Okay Lommy chose then to portray herself as a Defender (seer) then. How nice. And also she had the good luck of hitting a non-ordo. Even better. How come the most important things? Although you forgot the fact that we can't trust anyone here with their word and that makes the defender in the worst scenario quite a redundant person here. The only one who can prove his role is the Guardian as he can do things others can't. I can show it to you the next Night.

I see you've thought this through when you've been furiously thinking about which gifted to impersonate... You're tripping over your own feet, Nogrod.