Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

As well as this, I don't like the innocent lover. They look innocent to the Seer, like a cobbler. This could ultimately be our ruin.

I don't believe we should be hurrying about the lovers just now, we have time. We should rather catch the wolves; they kill one innocent each night, unlike the lovers.

I don't know whether we should make a double lynch today or not. There are good and bad sides about it. Though, I don't believe that we should kill two people if we don't have strong suspicions about them both; even in such a big village as this the futile lynching of one innocent might be fatal later on.

Originally Posted by Farael

a 50% chance is not certainty by a long shot.... and once we all agree to go on with this insanity, the shewolves will agree to it as well and just follow along. No-one can blame them of bandwagoning as it will be the village's policy.... discussion will be reduced to the male werewolves doing their best to get innocents lynched before themselves and so giving their female counterparts a better chance once they are dead.... while the females keep safe.

A very good point. I agree. A male lynching tactics costs us mindful discussion.

[Thinlómien]

I will vote, just in case I'm not able to get online later.

++Lhunardawen

I follow our seer blindly...

[the guy who be short]

Okay, okay.

1). I admit the plan has huge flaws.

2). I still like the numbers involved.

So, if you will not accept my plan, and I acknowledge that with such opposition, such a Bill may not be passed (), at least consider the double lynchings.

22% -> 40%. That's a good percentage leap.

Yes, consider this TGWBS's own watered-down Bill, put forward to the House once again...


And the lovers are a greater threat than you all seem to believe. We have amongst them two members of this village who stand against us and with the wolves, as long as we have numerical superiority.


But back to the point. Double lynchings. Accept them.


Also, Farael, you have been very willing to attack, and I concede that you have made some good points. However, you seem rather unwilling to defend yourself. This whole Kath business - your evidence is shoddier than my plan by far.

[Gurthang]

Wow, so much to read through. I'm going to (attempt to) make this short, since I doubt I'm the only one that's awed by the sheer amount of talk. I'll just post thoughts as they pop into my head while I read.

First, Valier sent a hidden message awhile back. This actually makes me think she is innocent. It makes no sense for a wolf to do it, especially given that they can PM during the Day. A hidden message only draws unwanted attention. I think she was just having some fun seeing who would find it.

Lhuna: Someone(I think Spawn?) brought up some good points about her, and others have voiced similar suspicion. One thing I think is in her favor is actually what is causing suspicion: that she would not break the tie yesterday. It is a guarantee of being suspected, as she is being, and for a wolf it is bad strategy. If you break a tie, one of the two dies, then the next Day the other one is likely to be suspected a lot. If both are lynched, the village begins the next Day fresh, with no stale near lynchees. In short, breaking a tie keeps the village in confusion for another Day, whereas leaving a tie kills both but saves the village time. A wolf would typically break a tie.

LMP is making sense to me, and I like his analysis. Although I should point out that (in post #272) he said Lalaith discredited looking at pairs when she had brought up the idea just 7 posts earlier. From what I see, it looks like she states dislike for the idea in both posts. That's not a good mark for him, and that vote still lingers on my mind. Watching him.

As I said (unfortunately before I realised that Day had ended), I'll be also be watching Farael and Glirdan, and maybe Cailín.


Okay, I finished reading through the second Day, so I'll go ahead and post my thoughts now. I'll be back after reading toDay.

P.S. Late response, I know, but I had noticed that you skipped me Cailín, and I was rather offended, but I do accept your apology.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

TGWBS is not saying that the plan will work; he's saying that it gives the village a better chance. And I do agree with him. Those who would doubt the merits of double-lynchings (male & female) look very suspicious to me. They only increase the villagers' chances of winning. Only the wolves could be scared of the numbers.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

TGWBS is not saying that the plan will work; he's saying that it gives the village a better chance. And I do agree with him. Those who would doubt the merits of double-lynchings (male & female) look very suspicious to me. They only increase the villagers' chances of winning. Only the wolves could be scared of the numbers.

That's presposterous, TGWBS's plan does not increase the villager's odds... it decreases them!! Sure, the mathematical odds increase, but this is not a game of math, as even after TGWBS's plan is done and all the males are dead, we'd have to revert back to analysis.

This game is won and lost by proper analysis. I offered my analysis and so far no-one has commented upon it properly. TGWBS's offers statistics and I say "they will be our doom". Why? because we will still need analysis yet once we commit to statistics we will loose the groundwork from which analysis is born. Namely, discussion. There will be no real discussion involving the female wolves, only their male counterparts.... thus the females will hide and then it will be too late for analysis. Eomer, your support of TGWBS but mostly your attack on those who try to show why his plan is misguided really worries me.

[Valier]

I for one do not think we should kill just the men. Women can be very crafty when backed into a corner remember...I do agree in a double lynch though.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Yes, we will revert back to analysis — once we have found at least one and probably two wolves. It's hopeless analysing people when we don't know a wolf. Anything can appear as anything. Once we find one, more doors open up for us and our analysis has a proper basis.

Unlike now, where we are scraping about in the dark with little clue.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

And Farael, you misrepresent what I said. I agreed with TGWBS; but I did not attack those who disagreed with his plan; I said I would suspect anyone who doubts the merits of double-lynchings.

That's different.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

And Farael, you misrepresent what I said. I agreed with TGWBS; but I did not attack those who disagreed with his plan; I said I would suspect anyone who doubts the merits of double-lynchings.

That's different.

My mistake Eomer, I stand corrected.

[Caranlondien]

I agree about double lynchings; As has been said, that gives us two kills based on the villagers' votes, and only one based on the werewolves (granted, the werewolves can influence our votes, but still...)

Eomer, I think TGWBS's plan is dead. While many of us agree about double lynchings, I think few of us will go along with an all-male lynching campaign. However, Eomer's continued defense of the plan does make me more inclined to believe him innocent; would a wolf continue to beat a dead horse?

Anyway, I've been convincd by arguments that Lhuna and Kath belong on our suspect-list. I'm going to go back and re-read their posts myself, since I can't trust any of you.

[Gurthang]

Okay, with spawn dead this brings many thoughts to mind.

1. Lhuna is not a wolf. Farael brings some good points up about this in post #297.

2. Lhuna is a wolf, but spawn did not dream of her. Try to think of this from the wolves point of view. Spawn, being the intelligent woman that she is, is not going to boldly tell us who her dream was about. This would point to her not dreaming of Lhuna, since she pretty much went after her completely. But, wolves are going to be watching for their own names. If they see someone consistently saying their name accusingly, whether subtly or unsubtly, they will think that that person was a seer. This means that if either Lhuna or Kath is a wolf, they would have seen spawn as a possible seer.

3. Kath is a wolf, dreamed of and subtly hinted at by spawn. Reasoning in #2 more or less applies here. Also, Kath being a wolf also fits with Anguirel's death.

4. Both #2 and #3 are true.

Well, I'm leaning towards #2 or #3, and maybe #4. Probably Kath has the strongest case against her, because it fits with both spawn's death and Anguirel's murder.

Right now, as I read the rest of toDay's chatter, I'll be paying extra attention to Kath and Lhuna.

[Cailín]

Something has changed.

TGWBS, despite your vote for me yesterday, I have faith in you.

Why, Eomer, suddenly I know why we should lynch you on the first Day. This superior arrogance, as if you know something we do not, is absolutely agonising.

--

I wish Lhuna would post something -silly timezones-, but she remains my primary suspect. If we were to orchestrate a double-lynching (which seems the wisest idea), I'd likely support Farael, possibly Kath, perhaps Glirdan and maybe one of the people I am forgetting about.

That said, Gurthang, I am really sorry. I shall henceforth mention you in all my suspect-lists.

I remain hesitant of TGWBS' plan. With three or even four female wolves, this Plan could turn out to be disastrous. I just don't know what to think. I doubt much support could be gathered for it anyway.

[the guy who be short]

I find it unbelievable that people are contemplating lynching Kath on the basis of four completely ambiguous and open-ended comments on her. I am consisently ignored when I bring this up.

Why would spawn, having dreamt of Kath, vote for Lhuna?

The entire foundation upon which this Kathspicion is built is soggy.

[Lalaith]

So many posts, so little time....
One thing I want to say. Spawn was a very careful and experienced player. She used the word "wolfish" with regard to Lhuna. This is a word she did NOT use when she voted for Eonwe the day before. (He was of course an innocent.)
I do think this is significant.
But I do wish Lhuna would come and post. I don't want her lynched before she can speak out.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ok, I concede. But I think that TGWBS is innocent because he suggested a mathematical method to root out wolves. Wolves are not happy playing with statistics; they thrive on twisting every piece of analysis this way and that.

If you're not happy with the plan then fine. Let's not do it.

Double-lynchings are a must, though. I trust we all see the wisdom in them?

Wow, Cailín. So I'm not just arrogant, but I have superior arrogance? That's what happens when the King himself tells you that you're brilliant.

All that happened was that I hit upon a new theory. It might be right, it might be wrong. Nothing important. Don't worry about it.

[the guy who be short]

I know the plan has been abandoned, but I just thought I'd bring up that the chance of there being four female wolves is (11!/7!) / (22!/18!) which comes out to 1 in 22.17. Seems a little unlikely.

Actually, that was the original chance. Factoring in all the deaths thus far, we get (10!/6!) / (18!/14!) which is 0.069. Almost negligable. By killing off all the men, we would, statistically speaking, probably get two wolves plus a lover.

But never mind. No point going on about it.

[Cailín]

Well, this is Nilp's game.

Things not making sense or negligible mathematical possibilities should be all around.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If the Seer is one of our quiet villagers who has not made any real accusations or defences, then it is definitely worth hiding.

But I know wolves. They absorb everything. If the other Seer has already made strong accusations or defences then it's very possible he/she could be slain tonight.

And then where would we be?

I guess I'm asking: When should the Seer reveal him/herself? If he/she knows the identity of 4 villagers (him/herself and 3 others) or even 5 tomorrow, then it might be worth him/her declaring him/herself, thus letting us build a double-lynching system around known innocents.

[the guy who be short]

Abridged form.

Well... he talks about seer hints from lmp, Eomer and Kath. Care to elaborate?

I don't really see why their voting seemed suspicious to him. But fair enough. Votes lmp, so at least he's consistent.

Like Lhuna, Gurthang says this:

I was actually thinking that Anguirel's ramblings might be hiding some seer's hints. Thankfully, I was mistaken.

Which, of course, could be an honest wolf.

And suspects Kath because of Ang's death. I have no idea why, as he hardly mentions her in a negative light.

Says he is worried about LMP's retaliatory vote for Eomer. Good point.

Also says spawn speaks sense. Make of that what you will.

Says to look at Lhuna on day 2 with no reasoning.

However, he also suspects Farael. Hmm. Good. And seems to support Kath's innocence.


Despite suspecting him earlier, I am now inclined to believe in Gurthang's innocence. Gurthang, what were these messages from Valier?

[Celuien]

Having just gone over the spawn/Lhuna interaction, I find Lhuna very suspcious for the same reasons given already, particularly the sudden reversal from spawn's inital agreement with her to a vote for Lhuna.

Actually, a Lhuna dream might not be so far-fetched. There was quite a bit of back-and-forth between spawn and Lhuna on the first day.

Post #3:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

My deepest condolences, fair dancing spawn. I pray that you do not succumb to your sorrow and go suicidal as his ancestors once did; instead gather your strength and courage. We shall avenge his death.

The often-cited post #120:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

I can't vote for someone I don't really suspect, even if it means a likely innocent will die if I don't. Oh, I feel so helpless. dancing spawn, are you still there?

Post #128:

Originally Posted by spawn

Lhuna, you speak sense. I agree with your last post there, and I don't know whom to vote...

The simple fact that they did correspond so much on day 1 might have triggered a dream. Then spawn declares suspicion in post #164 before her vote for Lhuna.

I can, however, think of alternate explanation for this, so I'll withhold my vote until Lhuna returns.

[Cailín]

The Seer should do as s/he sees fit.

We have no clue to his or her identity... so I couldn't possibly judge whether s/he is in immediate danger or not. Also, it largely depends on who they have dreamt of.

I trust our Seer to do what's best for the village.

[the guy who be short]

I trust our Seer to do what's best for the village.

As do I! any discussion of Seerism is dangerous and should be avoided. The Seer can decide things for him- or herself.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Despite suspecting him earlier, I am now inclined to believe in Gurthang's innocence. Gurthang, what were these messages from Valier?

I think he's talking about the "I don't eat sheep" subliminal message in this post.

At least that's the only one I spotted.

[the guy who be short]

Thank you Celuien. That doesn't much change my opinion of her though.

I'd just like to point out that Naria and Kath have both spoken less often than the Prophet himself. This seems unacceptable.

Anyway, to bed.

++FARAEL

I like people to make sense. This persecution of Kath does not make sense.

Villagers, if you can, double lynch him with Lhuna.

[Farael]

TGWBS, I know you are not the seer because you are accusing me.... and I find it very unsettling how you try to manipulate the village. Of course, others may think that you are a seer who has found something, but I know you are not as I know I'm not a wolf. Thus the question remains, why are you being so manipulative? do you have other interests? all those statistics and the detraction from proper analysis.... quite odd, isn't it?

And Guy, I can see you have spent not a minute trying to understand my theory. I still believe that after Anguirel's death, a seer Spawn would not go all out against a wolf she had dreamt about. IT WOULD MEAN HER DEATH. In any case, she did die, but for some other reason we might learn about later. Perhaps because the wolves picked up that she was on Kath's trail, as I did today.... perhaps by random chance, the wolves trying to equate the number of males and females and choosing spawn for he relationship with Nilp. I think we are all forgetting that Spawn was VERY likely to be either gifted or wolvish in this game....

[Formendacil]

Hmm... miss half a day, and you have a lot of catchup to play...

Anyway, things today seem to be heading in one of two directions: Lhuna and Kath- both of whom seem to have been "Wolfified" by Spawn.

Not that I necessarily disagree. Spawn's accusations of Lhuna, especially yesterday, seem to have been fairly consistent once they began. And Lhuna has, to a certain extent, incriminated herself by her actions. Whether or not she actually IS a werewolf though... it's difficult to say. Lhuna has been suspected so many times in her career in this game that it seems almost ridiculous to be voting for her. But she must be a Werewolf someday... and if this is the day...

Then there's Kath. Spawn's indiction of her is less solid-seeming than of Lhuna, which may have been a clever Seer not making herself stand out for the Werewolves to see, or it may have meant that she didn't dream of Kath, and was simply voicing suspicions based on her own knowledge of things.

Of the two, I'm more inclined to think that Kath is a Werewolf. It goes back, as my analyzing usually does, to the way she usually plays the game. It could just be that circumstances are more favourable for her, but Kath has seemed more active than usual to me- a sign that I take to mean that she's probably a Werewolf. Lhuna, on the other hand, seems completely normal- or as normal as she gets.

Now, TGWBS has been making an awful lot of noise from what I've seen about a plan to double-lynch away the entire male population of the village...

I'm really not too keen on the idea, since it's based on the thought that we're BOUND to catch one of the Lovers that way. Well, what if Kath or Lhuna is the Werewolf Lover? If so, then BANG! we have the male lover dead as well.

And we're back to Square One. Nilp has said nothing about the Werewolves being Two Men and Two Women- and it would be unlikely of him to influence the game by doing so now. It's not outside the realm of possibility that there are three female wolves and one male- or vice versa.

So, as I see it, TGWBS's plan should definitely be no more than considered today. We probably have at least one Wolf in hand, thanks to Spawn. If we get really lucky- and by gum it's the villagers' turn to be lucky this game- then we might catch the Lover Werewolf in doing so.

Finally, to restate for this village what I've stated for all the villages before: I don't like double-lynchings. Never have, and I never will. And, although I'm willing to die for the village if need be, I'd really just as soon that we lynched people who actually appear to be Werewolves rather than just grabbing two people every day and lynching them.

Anyway, I'm reasonably convinced of Kath's guilt. I see no point in waiting to vote.

++ Kath

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Farael on TGWBS

I find it very unsettling how you try to manipulate the village

I agree. I think that TGWBS has been manipulative, and I'm definitely still suspicious of him. Everyone keeps writing off his behavior as in-character and Nilp-esque, but I just don't think that's a good enough reason; After all, it really is the perfect cover for a wolf.

As for Kath, I think good points are made on both sides. I'd like to hear from her more before lynching her, so I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt for now.

TGWBS's vote for Farael surprised me a little; maybe I missed it, but I thought he seemed more suspicious of others. I guess he wanted to get another candidate out there hoping people wouldn't vote for Kath, since he believes her innocent. I'm very suspicious of him though, so I'm hesitant to just follow his suggestions. Besides, now that Formendacil has voted for Kath, we're up to three candidates.

[Farael]

Thinlomien: Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
The Guy Who Be Short: Farael (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1)
Formendacil: Kath (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)

It seems that the three main suspects for the day (and yes, I reckon that I'm being suspected) have been voted for already. While it's likely that one (or two) of us three will be lynched today, I would suggest that we don't focus solely on us. Should we all be misguided, the wolves may slip through the cracks.

Having said that, and without forgetting that my main suspect is Kath, for whom I shall most likely vote by the end of the day, I shall raise my personal concerns about TGWBS. Maybe not for today, but for further reference.

*He proposes a strategy that seems logical enough
*When his strategy is challenged, he attacks the challengers
*When his strategy is proven mostly incorrect, he gives up on it but still tries to vouch in favour of lynching one of the loudest opposers of his theory.

Now, when (and if) I die, you will see I'm no wolf. That plays straight into The Guy's hand, as a wolf would not be that blatantly obvious and you will all see I'm no seer thus I was just a villager who disagreed with him. He'll say he's terribly sorry but... we will be one male short. If the wolves happen to kill another male during the night, he'll again argue "let's kill all males" given that the mathematical odds will increase. I don't feel like working up the numbers right now, but I'm pretty certain they will not increase in a significant amount.

The Guy has also been very vocal, going after about a quarter of the village in the last three days. Obviously, a wolf would not do that because loudmouths get lynched.... or so HE says. By the same statistics he so much seems to like, odds are that he has accused, raised concerns or mentioned in a bad light more innocents than wolves.

His behaviour seemed more that of a misguided loudmouth up to today. His far-fetched plan (something I cautioned us against before) and his attack on me (whom, unlike you all, know I'm innocent) have raised a thought that had not occurred to me before.

He seems VERY interested in getting rid of the lovers. Surely, the lovers are more of a concern to the wolves than what they are to us innocent villagers, as if we find the wolves we find the lovers... but if the wolves don't find the lovers, the traitor in their midst can do much more damage than the ordo lover. One traitor working against four can do more damage than one traitor working against twenty.

Is The Guy's fixation on finding the lovers suddenly seems pretty interesting. He has offered me and Lhuna for the sacrificial pyre at the end of the day.... I shall offer you a new possibility. Kath is still high up there in my suspect list, but The Guy is climbing fast. Furthermore, by his attack on me and Lhuna, The Guy is moving attention away from Kath herself. I've spent many of my posts arguing the pro/cons of his theory as well as defending myself where I thought I needed to make a stand and very little time explaining my thoughts about Kath to anyone who has some doubts about them.

I propose lynching Kath and The Guy in two days, and in that order. That way, should Kath's death reveal some useful information, we could use ANALYSIS (something The Guy seems to be mildly against this early on the village) to decide whether or not we should go on and rid ourselves of The Guy

Some of the proposers of the double-lynch seem to think that given that we will probably lynch both individuals anyway, we might as well do it at once... yet you forget that new things may come up, new lines of thought my sway our persuasion.... and furthermore, the death of ONE of the two people may somehow put the other in the clear.

Thus I propose, let's go after Kath today, and depending on what we see and what Guy answers to my accusation when he comes back, we'll lynch him later.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Farael, you seem to miss the point. Spawn may well not have gone all out for the wolf that she dreamed about; but the wolves don't know that. There's a very good chance that the wolves see Spawn go after Lhuna and get worried. Simplest explanations are usually the best.

And just because TGWBS suspects you doesn't mean he's not the Seer. How can you know that? Maybe he is and just hasn't dreamed about you yet. Meaning absolutely no offence, my good man, but your posts come across as edgy to me. Maybe it's just because I'm picturing you as a wolf. I don't know. You're still one of my main suspects.

Kath, I did notice that LMP used your reasoning in voting for me, and frankly I think the both of you are foolish for doing that. "Oh, the only we can know Eomer's true identity is if we kill him or the Seer dreams about him".... how is that any different from any other villager? I think you might have been scaremongering, knowing that I'm a good target because of past wolvery.

And I still find all the talk of you yesterday to be weird. Set-up of Kath, my foot...

I'm very suspicious of you.

But we're obviously not going to let Lhuna survive until the end.

++LHUNARDAWEN

Besides, it's the unwritten rule that I must vote for her in every game.

I've been a terrible brother...

[SamwiseGamgee]

There sure is a lot to be getting on with, eh?

I've got a plan, though: how about we lynch a wolf. It's out there, but I have a niggling feeling it may work. At the start of the day someone (sorry, forget who) said we should try to be more united as a village and I just haven't seen that today.

But moving on, I'm going to vote Lhuna in about a half hour unless (1) she comes on and exhonerates herself or (2) someone else becomes more suspicious. My reason is thus: Spawn was a seer, and is a clever lady: she knew that if she was killed everything she'd said or done was going to be turned upside down and inside out. So why then did she go after Lhuna so doggedly? Forget 'it doesn't make sense for her to dream of Lhuna'. Let's deal with what we know: Spawn expressly went after Lhuna yesterday and then voted for her. Why would she do that?

The arguments against Kath are strong also, and I have no problem with us lynching them both, but I shall vote for Lhuna myself simply because I feel more comfortable doing so.

[Cailín]

Well, I'm going to bed now. Truthfully, I have not made up my mind yet, so shall probably spend a few hours contemplating in the dark. I will return before voting time tomorrow. If the majority of the village decides on a plan before then, I will naturally cooperate. As for now, I find each of you suspicious and some more so than others.

Good night all.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Yes, let's be more united. Forget that, by its very nature, this is a game of lying, cheating, stealing, and double-crossing.

What do you propose, Samwise? Should we all get together and hold hands and not lynch anyone and unite as a village?



Such a lack of bloodlust makes me think you're not the man you once were.

String him up!

[Gurthang]

I've realized over the last couple of Days that the Lovers have a lot of power on the outcome of this village, if not in the actual process of the outcome. Even if they don't win, they could either betray or not betray the wolves before they die. It's interesting. If the wolves would decide to kill the wolf-Lover's love, then the Lover's could easily give the wolves names to the village(providing they knew the wolves intentions beforehand). If the villagers kill one of the lover's, the wolves identity is buried with them(hypothetically speaking. I'm not really suggesting that we bestow the honor of burial on the Lovers.). It almost seems that, when their own hope of victory is dead, the Lover's hold the village's fate in their hands.

Guy's suggestion of lynching all males a while back is interesting, but not plausible in my mind. I don't think it really matters, as it has already been shot down, I assume. But, just to make sure, let me say this: The reasoning behind The Plan is to get the Lovers. Quite frankly, the one lover who is not a wolf should not have enough influence on the village to make a difference, and the four wolves won't have a lot of influence because it is unlikely that they will all move together. Hence, the lovers can pretty much be ignored until later in the game. And I don't like playing the odds, simply because these are not simple odds, they can and will be tampered with by the wolves.

I support the idea of double lynching Kath and Lhuna. It seems like a good way to clear a lot of suspicion. And I think it's very likely that one, if not both, is a wolf. The trouble is going to be bringing it about. But, I completely disagree that we should have a double lynch from here on out. I think we can get a lot from the wolves kill each Night, and killing more each Day shortens the time we have for the wolves to make kills. Also, it gives us less voting to analyze. I think one toDay will probably tell us enough that we won't need to do another double for a few Days.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Eomer, you cut me to my core! Come, let us drink and womanise until the wee small hours and you shall find I am no less of a man than you remember!

P.S.- We're both male, so keep you crackpot lover theories to yourselves!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Gurthang, you make reasonable points against double-lynchings. But if the Seer does choose to reveal some known innocents then we cannot afford to let the chance slip by.

Aye, Samwise! Let us drink rum 'til we forget the worries of our time; and the sorrows of this village. But the womenfolk may well be locked-up in their homes tonight, rather than partying at the saloon.

[SamwiseGamgee]

A wise point, Eomer. One can only imagine the horror of finding that the evening's pull is a huge, slavering, toothy wolf! I think 'yuk' fails to cover it.

[Farael]

Master Samwise, given that you seem to be around, would you kindly explain to me why we should ignore the fact that Spawn was not likely to dream of Lhuna on the second night?

As far as I can tell, it is plausible if not probable, and thus we should not forget it. As a matter of fact, we should not forget a thing that has been said, for evidence may lay on the most inconspicuous statements.

Furthermore, care to explain exactly why you seem to be in Lhuna's tail? you have been accusing her with no real reasoning for the past two days and this anti-lhuna theories play straight into your hands. You can get her lynched without being the man to propose it, and thus avoid most of the heat if she turns out to be an innocent. I'm not saying that she will, but she sure seems more innocent than Kath right now.

Finally, why should we villagers unite? I think we should stay at each other's throat, allies one day and enemies the next as a united vilalge will fall to the wolves. We cannot tell who the wolves are right now, and that is our problem. If we "unite and work together" we shall also die together, as we would be welcoming those furry beasts into our supposedly synergistic group.

Really, you should know better than that. OR do you have other interests in mind?

Finally, I find it very unsettling when a villager posts a comment that does not include one bit of analysis after day 1. I will not hold it against you given that this is a game after all and we are supposed to have fun, but try to contribute something to the discussion if you are to post.

[Glirdan]

I said I'd finish analysing spawn later, so, I will.

Post #166 - Does an analysis of Naria and after it, doesn' suspect her.

Post #175 - Nothing much except quotes and answers to them.

Post #193 - More quote and answers.

Post #199 - Asks Eonwe if he had any suspicions instead of voting for Valier simply because Valier posted before him. Says she won't vote for him that Day because there are better lynching candidates. Quoted and agreed with Gurth. Wanted to hear more from Naria.

Post #207 - Quotes and agrees with Eomer that it's possible that the Wolves didn't attack Ang to frame Kath. Quotes and agrees with Eomer once again.

Post #212 - Quotes Lhuna and asks if she's confessing. Finds Lhuna the most Wolvish and votes her.

Well, there's not much that I see there leading towards a Kath or Lhuna dream. I think she voted for Lhuna on instinct mostly and the facts that she had gathered against her. I'll be back with some more thoughts.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Excuse me Farael, I did say "Forget 'it doesn't make sense for Spawn to dream of Lhuna'." Or words rather close to those, but what I should have said was "Forget for the minute..." I guess I got somewhat carried away in the moment of my thought. I don't think we should completely ignore it, but when we trust in speculation on what makes sense we err. What makes sense to you, Farael, may make no sense whatsoever to me. 'Sense' is subjective, and that's why I'm uncomfortable with leaning on it.

I became suspicious of Lhuna yesterday morning. Maybe after the night had an ordo been killed I would have put it on the backburner. However, learning of Spawn's seerishness and bearing in mind what she said regarding Lhuna means that she is my chief suspect. That's why I've been on her tail so closely: because I believe she has one!

Now, my unity call was made out of frustration. Frustration mainly at what I saw as you and TGWBS's bickering. Even as I read that I was agreeing with TGWBS, and now that I've read your last post I am very uncomfortable. Just compare the reactions to my 'working together' post of Eomer and Farael. I can't help but think that Farael, staring down the barrel of getting lynched, is desperately trying to shift everyone's focus.