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Old 06-30-2014, 07:33 PM   #1
Rikae
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I'm here and reading. I'd love to analyze everyone, but I've had an exhausting day and I really don't have the energy.

Nog is saying strange things. We have 8/10 non-lions, yes, but we have 6/10 innocents, and if we fail today and the ranger fails tonight, we have 3/7 toMorrow. That is to say, we lose tomorrow, against a bear/lion team.

We have to get toDay's vote right.

Edit: X'd with Sally
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Old 06-30-2014, 07:41 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Nog is saying strange things. We have 8/10 non-lions, yes, but we have 6/10 innocents, and if we fail today and the ranger fails tonight, we have 3/7 toMorrow. That is to say, we lose tomorrow, against a bear/lion team.

We have to get toDay's vote right.

Edit: X'd with Sally

There's twelve of us, though. 10/12 non-lions, 8/10 innocents; even if everything goes as poorly as possible, we've still got 5/9 innocents toMorrow. So, it's not great, but it's not as dire as that yet.
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Old 06-30-2014, 07:44 PM   #3
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There's twelve of us, though. 10/12 non-lions, 8/10 innocents; even if everything goes as poorly as possible, we've still got 5/9 innocents toMorrow. So, it's not great, but it's not as dire as that yet.
Wait, what? Ok, my brain really is fried.
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Old 06-30-2014, 07:54 PM   #4
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Not an exaggeration: If toDay does not end in us lynching someone who voted for Kit yesterDay, I am withdrawing from this game.
Although it's a reasonable assumption that a Kit voter was a Lion, it isn't a certainty.

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Speaking of toDay's lynch, I can think of no better place to look than those who for whatever reason (certainly not a sensible one) thought eliminating Kit was a good idea. Let's get started. Who voted Kit and why? No, really, why?
I've already answered that. And how were you so certain she was innocent?
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Old 06-30-2014, 07:55 PM   #5
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Are we sure there's no Cobbler at this stage?
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Old 06-30-2014, 08:32 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Inziladun View Post
Are we sure there's no Cobbler at this stage?
I am pretty sure that if the maiden were killed, they would not be listed as an ordo at the bottom of the narration post.
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Old 06-30-2014, 08:52 PM   #7
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YesterDay's voting

Green-->Kit
Boro-->Lommy
Gil-->Lommy (2)
Dun-->Kit (2)
Enca-->Kit (3)
Wyth-->Kit (4)
Cop-->Kit (5)
Kit-->Enca
Lottie-->Kit (6)
Lommy-->Kit (7)
Sally-->Lommy (3)
Nog-->Kit (8)
Rikae-->Enca (2)
Eomer-->Boro

We have two wolves and a werebear/maiden combo. While the latter pairing isn't technically evil, they are killing during the Night, so in any case, we have four troublesome folks about.

Of all of the votes yesterDay, only six of them weren't for Kit, and of those six, two are dead, and one is me.

It is mathematically impossible for Kit's lynch to have been purely innocent-driven. Entirely. Mathematically. Impossible.

I'm not saying that all of the people who voted for someone else are innocent, but there is at least one villain among the Kit voters, period.


x'd since Dun
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Old 06-30-2014, 09:00 PM   #8
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Ok. I wasn't counting the Lovers like you are.

I'd still like to know how you could have been so sure Kit was innocent.
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Old 06-30-2014, 09:08 PM   #9
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I'd still like to know how you could have been so sure Kit was innocent.
I was sure Kit was innocent because I was sure Kit was innocent. I had the benefit of not being brainwashed by the wolves for the better part of two Days, so I recognized the bandwagon for what it was: a frame attempt on an innocent.


x'd since Dun again
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Old 06-30-2014, 09:00 PM   #10
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Sally, don't forget that Eonwe did not vote yesterday. This bumps the number of people who were not on the Kitwagon, AND who are still alive, up to five (Eonwe, Boro, Rikae, Eomer, and yourself). So while I don't think it's likely that all four "troublesome folks" didn't vote for Kit, it IS mathematically possible.

Last edited by Encaitare; 06-30-2014 at 09:02 PM. Reason: Edited for clarity, cross-posted with Inzil
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Old 06-30-2014, 08:39 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inziladun View Post
Are we sure there's no Cobbler at this stage?
I do believe sally isn't messing around, she's not one to talk about withdrawing unless she's being honest. It's just really sad to see she's this frustrated she might leave...

I think there are evil paws in the Kit votes last night, but there's got to be a better way than "do it or I'm done"?
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Old 07-01-2014, 01:45 PM   #12
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Interesting... this is actually Rikae's first post of the Day:
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I'm here and reading. I'd love to analyze everyone, but I've had an exhausting day and I really don't have the energy.

Nog is saying strange things. We have 8/10 non-lions, yes, but we have 6/10 innocents, and if we fail today and the ranger fails tonight, we have 3/7 toMorrow. That is to say, we lose tomorrow, against a bear/lion team.

We have to get toDay's vote right.
Lottie corrected her on the next post... but well, it looks like she was here toDay with a firm intention to try and get me suspected.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eönwë
On a side note, after going through Day 2, I wonder if there's more to Rikae and Zil's argument than meets the eye...
Could you actually clarify this a bit Eönwë? Was that the "being in Mac's shoes" thingy or something else?
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Old 07-01-2014, 01:48 PM   #13
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So we have the makings of a LommyWagon and InzilWagon. How do I get this deja vu -feeling?

Well, I can't deny I have suspected them both during the game, but I'd be actually rather leaning towards lynching Rikae at this point.

Of course if no one else is up to it it would be a waste of a vote.
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Old 07-01-2014, 01:50 PM   #14
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Nog, it's Lommy or Inzil. Where are you leaning?

Football's almost on...
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Old 07-01-2014, 01:53 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim View Post
Nog, it's Lommy or Inzil. Where are you leaning?

Football's almost on...
Belgium vs. USA... yes.

I don't know. Inzil somehow feels like a scapegoat that was used, but what Eönwë fex. said toDay might point him being a lion...

Lommy's votes were somehow eye-catching and I could truly see her as a lion - or even more as one of the lovers...
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Old 07-01-2014, 01:54 PM   #16
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I want to know both their roles. Alas! no double-lynches!
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Old 07-01-2014, 01:56 PM   #17
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Two of those I deem more innocent than not have voted for Lommy and some of those I suspect more have voted for Zil.

++ Lommy

I must be able to trust people I tend to trust.
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Old 07-01-2014, 01:59 PM   #18
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I've skimmed the thread. Looks like it's between Inzil and Lommy now, so going to go with

++Lommy

I've had a nagging feeling about her for a while, more about her than Inzil, anyway. Although I also think there might be something curious going on with Lottie and/or Eonwe, especially if we're wrong about Lommy.

Sorry. Incoherent. Will participate more toMorrow if I'm still around.

zzzzz


EDIT: x-ed with Nog, Eomer and Nog again.
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