Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Yup... I'm trying to think of a way that's not cheating to let them know when we're going to bed and won't be there to see the communication plans, but unless somebody else can think of something, all I have is for the entire Dead thread to go quiet after Greenie, Legate and I leave (with or without voting) and that's not conducive (plus the wolves could mess it up - although the village would probably notice it's just Mac and Lottie posting ).

Phantom! Where are your elaborate schemes when we need them, huh? Now's a chance for the captain of Gondor to show his quality... eh... nevermind that.

[Rikae]

We need to empower somebody, though.

Without a system, we can let them know that we trust Boro/Nerwen, at least (so they can assume that Mac and Lottie have outed themselves here).

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Unless they were convinced the real seer is dead. Still, lover and special role impersonation would be risky as the special seems to be an assassin and the lover could come back.

They might think that, but we know better, and at this point I can't imagine the real seer would allow it to continue.

[Rikae]

Simplest, least ambiguous way is to empower Boro or Nerwen. Boro, I'd say.
The living wolves most likely think Nerwen is the seer, but we don't need to be all like "hey! We ghosts think so too!"

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Simplest, least ambiguous way is to empower Boro or Nerwen. Boro, I'd say.
The living wolves most likely think Nerwen is the seer, but we don't need to be all like "hey! We ghosts think so too!"

Agreed about that. Still, it would really be much much better if we could pass on some other info. Sadly I can't think of a way to do it, not even by using Firefoot's list from yesterDay, since if I am not mistaken, I do not appear on it...

[Nogrod]

Okay. I think Boro is overdoing it. (Maybe because he's the last of his pack left?)

Originally Posted by Boro

If the wolves are thinking about trying to put doubt to my claims, and get the village to lynch me as a wolf, that theory wouldn't hold, because there is no other explanation for Mac's death other than I assassinated him NIGHT 3 (and I left clues to my activities/thoughts, which I will get to in a moment).

If they want to try to kill me in the night (Ranger don't ever consider protecting me), I may have a another trick, or I may not, that I'm taking to the grave with me. Their choice.

So he should not be lynched and he should not be NightKilled? Nice.

Also he tells us about all the hints he has been making but doesn''t mention the FBI-thing tp was so happy to champion as the hint he picked of him being the seer earlier on. Like I said earlier, in this game one doesn't trust anyone, let alone one would trust tp.

Boro's explanations of his kills also sound a bit ad hoc to me. I mean he is kind of doing a systematic thing but then again he doesn't stick to it and all that jazz.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

We need to empower somebody, though.

Without a system, we can let them know that we trust Boro/Nerwen, at least (so they can assume that Mac and Lottie have outed themselves here).

Not Boro if have another choice. Why would we signal the village he's alright when he so totally isn't?

I mean no, I don't know him to be a wolf, but he's one of the fishiest in the thread right now so let's not lend him any more credibility if we can avoid it?

[Aganzir]

DAY 1 and 2 opinions separated by |||, DAY 2 and 3 by ///
Brackets indicate a vague/changing opinion
Known wolves underlined. Confirmed innocents italicised (yeah, only those we've found out here, just to be on the safe side.

NIGHT 2 VICTIMS

phantom suspected: Nogrod, Lottie, Mac, Firefoot
phantom found innocent: Aganzir, Boro, sally, Nilp

Rune suspected: Greenie
Rune found innocent: (Form)

**

NIGHT 3 VICTIMS

Macalaure suspected: Aganzir ||| Aganzir, (Legate,) Firefoot, Form, sally, Lottie
Macalaure found innocent: Rikae, Firefoot, Nilp, Legate, Greenie ||| Rikae, Legate morm, Eomer, Lommy, Lalaith, Mith

Rikae suspected: Lommy, Greenie, Mac, phantom ||| Greenie, Firefoot, Lottie
Rikae found innocent: ||| Agan, Mac, morm, (Firefoot)

Legate suspected: Greenie ||| Greenie, Boro, Firefoot, Lottie, Aganzir, (mentioned earlier but later put on his second-best zone: sally, McCab, Mac)
Legate found innocent: (Nog, Lommy, Form, Kath, Shasta, morm, Mith, Rune, Nerwen) ||| Nerwen, Lommy, Mith

**

NIGHT 4 VICTIMS

Firefoot suspected: (Lommy) ||| Lottie, Mac, McC, (Rikae), (Eomer, Shasta, sally - potentially suspicious for the Nogwagon) /// Boro, Lottie
Firefoot found innocent: (Nog) ||| Nerwen, Form, Rikae, morm, Boro, Shasta, Eomer, (Greenie, Agan) /// morm

Lalaith suspected: Legate ||| Aganzir, (Legate, Boro, Mac) /// Lottie, Mac
Lalaith found innocent: ||| Greenie, Nerwen, Lottie /// Firefoot, (Lommy, Nerwen, Mith - assuming Legate as the seer thesis was correct), (Eomer - didn't really say he was innocent, just that he had good points more than once)

**

Can't conclude much from NIGHT 4 though. I also included Lalaith even if there's reason to believe she was killed by Boro while the ranger blocked the Fang pack tonight. It seems the Grip pack killed Firefoot as per Lottie's instructions - I'm inclined to agree with whoever said Lottie believed her the Seer and tried to paint her as a rival wolf to discourage the Ranger.

However, there are a lot of leads back to Boro - both Legate and Firefoot (and Lalaith) suspected him. And as I said yesterday, everybody except Rune out of the first 5 victims suspected Firefoot as well.
If neither is a wolf, the remaining few are doing a good job slipping under the radar.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also he tells us about all the hints he has been making but doesn''t mention the FBI-thing tp was so happy to champion as the hint he picked of him being the seer earlier on. Like I said earlier, in this game one doesn't trust anyone, let alone one would trust tp.

Exactly. I'm sure he has another trick or two up his sleeve in case he'd had to reveal as the ranger, hunter or lover.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Not Boro if have another choice. Why would we signal the village he's alright when he so totally isn't?

I mean no, I don't know him to be a wolf, but he's one of the fishiest in the thread right now so let's not lend him any more credibility if we can avoid it?

Ditto.

I'd rather empower Nerwen if we have to choose - she probably has the most information in the village and whether or not we do it, the wolves know it too. What are the chances they tried to kill sally instead of her last night? Not big, I'd say. I think she'll be back shortly before the deadline with her list of dreams, after which she'll be happy to join us here.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Not Boro if have another choice. Why would we signal the village he's alright when he so totally isn't?

I mean no, I don't know him to be a wolf, but he's one of the fishiest in the thread right now so let's not lend him any more credibility if we can avoid it?

Well, it's unlikely Boro is a wolf. Nerwen appears to have dreamed of him, and even if he and Nerwen are both lying, the real seer is alive and most likely knows something about him, about Nerwen, or at the very least about one of the people she's claiming to know the role of. If he's not the real special role, there's also the real special role person to consider. The fact that no one is protesting speaks against Boro being a wolf.

Is he telling the truth 100% about his role and how it works? Probably not, and I wish we knew more. But I do trust that he is a gifted, and not a wolf (and we have more reason to trust him than the living do).

[Rikae]

Actually, what am I thinking? We should scry Lalaith.

If she's truly an ordo, we know there are still two packs about (assuming we're right about Boro's role). That's worth knowing.

Also, she's who the living have asked us to scry, and with so many people here, we won't necessarily have the option to tell them about me (or Legate).
At least Lalaith's role, they should give us a way to communicate.

[Rikae]

"What am I thinking" referring to how I earlier said that we could just assume she was a wolf and scry someone else.

As for toDay's empower, I'm fine with Nerwen, too.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, it's unlikely Boro is a wolf. Nerwen appears to have dreamed of him, and even if he and Nerwen are both lying, the real seer is alive and most likely knows something about him, about Nerwen, or at the very least about one of the people she's claiming to know the role of. If he's not the real special role, there's also the real special role person to consider. The fact that no one is protesting speaks against Boro being a wolf.

Is he telling the truth 100% about his role and how it works? Probably not, and I wish we knew more. But I do trust that he is a gifted, and not a wolf (and we have more reason to trust him than the living do).

Well. I'm not sure about this. I've seen Borowolf fake reveal out of the blue just to flush out the real ranger when he felt they needed to take them out - poor Shasta was lynched as the "fake" ranger, and Boro the next day. I can't remember if it resulted in a wolf victory but either way it was effective.

At the moment, there's 12 people alive. Let's say Boro is a wolf and his pack is still in full strength (while they know the other pack is down to 1). In this situation, the special role is the biggest risk to them.

Boro fake reveals, trying to oust the special. An innocent is lynched. After two (innocent) night kills, there's 3 wolves to 5 villagers (and 1 wolf). Not difficult to sway the vote. The pack wins the next day.
Alternatively, Boro fake reveals, trying to oust the special - who kills him next NIGHT. Boro is a "known innocent" in the Dead thread, at least until the special speaks out or we scry him. He can influence our vote and try to ensure his pack's survival from here. Not as effective but not necessarily doomed either.

I'm not saying this is what's happening or that it's even likely, just that it's possible and we shouldn't dismiss it, especially as in the "best" case scenario it makes sense as a means to secure victory. In any case, I'm not sure Nerwen has dreamed Boro.

WW CIX, otherwise apparently known as the game in which Agan didn't trust a single gifted reveal.

[the phantom]

I would say this could be a chance to use our empower to try and kill the target we want dead (i.e. early voters spread and late voters pick the target), BUT that hardly works if Mac and Lottie are growling around at the deadline and lacking balance for them...

We probably do need to bandwagon.

Anyway, I'm not even going to try theorizing Nerwen and Boro as liars because I've liked them from the start. (Frankly it's a bit funny how little anything has changed for me this game. I'm so stubborn.)

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

One would think, after all those different wolf combos you guys have tried out so far, at least one of them had been correct simply by chance. It's fun from my perspective, because I can see the one crucial piece of info that's missing. Should I help you, to increase my chances of bringing down the other wolf pack, or am I just going to lean back and wait until you figure it out?

Get a grip, Mac. Is that what you're trying to tell us?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Anyway, I'm not even going to try theorizing Nerwen and Boro as liars because I've liked them from the start. (Frankly it's a bit funny how little anything has changed for me this game. I'm so stubborn.)

The Dead thread is making me paranoid. Look at me, happy and trusting Rikae when we lived and what now?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, it's unlikely Boro is a wolf. Nerwen appears to have dreamed of him, and even if he and Nerwen are both lying, the real seer is alive and most likely knows something about him, about Nerwen, or at the very least about one of the people she's claiming to know the role of. If he's not the real special role, there's also the real special role person to consider. The fact that no one is protesting speaks against Boro being a wolf.

I think it is not at all clear she "appears" to have dreamt of Boro. And all this planning from the first posts onwards for different scenarios where he'd need to bluff sounds more wolfy than not (if tp is in with the plan or just honestly happened to notice the FBI-thing is another question then).

Also, if someone had a "licence to kill"-role, why would s/he protest openly against Boro in the thread and reveal her/himself? Just attack him at Night if s/he (the special role) is on the side of the villagers.

[Lalaith]

The Dead thread is making me paranoid.

Me too. I thought it would be nice here. And now Nogs tells me there isn't even Sancerre in the afterlife. (Although I am touched that he remembered)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also, if someone had a "licence to kill"-role, why would s/he protest openly against Boro in the thread and reveal her/himself? Just attack him at Night if s/he (the special role) is on the side of the villagers.

I went through the same thought process and wanted to say that here, but there would be a reason: if the "real assassin" just killed Boro, who would ever know that Boro wasn't just a real assassin killed by Wolves because he was dangerous to them?

All that said, all the concerns raised here are valid. By the way I am also getting paranoid with all you other talking-a-lot folks, except for basically Aganzir .

[Nogrod]

With too many unknowns sitting here around the DL I'd suggest a bandwagon as well - and as we have no clue how the voting will go we'd probably need to pick just whom we feel the most trustworthy or least suspicious.

I'm not saying Nerwen couldn't pull out that kind of a master-class tactics, but giving us two wolves is pretty good show none else in the thread can boast of. And so they might even understand we gave it just as a reward for well done wolf-catching.

[the phantom]

Ha ha, Kath. Just votes for the person that happens to be listed first on Nerwen's list of the unknown.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not saying Nerwen couldn't pull out that kind of a master-class tactics, but giving us two wolves is pretty good show none else in the thread can boast of. And so they might even understand we gave it just as a reward for well done wolf-catching.

Hopefully.

At least I would trust Nerwen to do with her vote something reasonable. (And if she is a Wolf, I daresay she deserves it...)

It might also be a point to make that we are not totally certain about Boro, as opposed to her (although I am not entirely sure if that is really the point we want to make... but it's not as conclusive point, anyway).

Are there any other good options? Can't think of any.

[Nogrod]

If there is no clear-cut situation where both the village votes more or less unanimously and there is a clearly established procedure what our vote means, then I say we just try to do what little we can. If there were already a pack of votes we could vote for someone who voted to lynch someone we especially suspect, but as even that is not the case I'm afraid we just have to give our vote as some kind of vote of confidence (or then not vote at all) as it looks like most of us will be having little to say as to who is lynched because we're fast alsleep (and too many wolves, 2-4, lurk there around the DL).

When I look at the list of names in the Living Thread I can't quite come up with anyone else than Nerwen as one we could vote for.

I'm open to well argued ideas though. For a while (trying to go to sleep in some more decentish time finally tonight).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If there is no clear-cut situation where both the village votes more or less unanimously and there is a clearly established procedure what our vote means, then I say we just try to do what little we can. If there were already a pack of votes we could vote for someone who voted to lynch someone we especially suspect, but as even that is not the case I'm afraid we just have to give our vote as some kind of vote of confidence (or then not vote at all) as it looks like most of us will be having little to say as to who is lynched because we're fast alsleep (and too many wolves, 2-4, lurk there around the DL).

When I look at the list of names in the Living Thread I can't quite come up with anyone else than Nerwen as one we could vote for.

I'm open to well argued ideas though. For a while (trying to go to sleep in some more decentish time finally tonight).

Third time's the charm, right?

I basically second this. If there is no brilliant revelation or amazing list coming up at the Living thread in some minutes, then I think I will really also just vote for Nerwen.

It would have made perhaps even more sense not to vote at all, but exactly, if we don't vote, Wolves could just wreak havoc.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Me too. I thought it would be nice here. And now Nogs tells me there isn't even Sancerre in the afterlife. (Although I am touched that he remembered)

And here for Lalaith!

[Aganzir]

I think I'll vote for Nerwen. (Also Greenie will probably get on here and vote in a little while, unless she forgets and goes to sleep instead.)

Sally is another option, being pretty much a known innocent, but I think voting Nerwen is so clear-cut that even if the village starts making a communication plan an hour before the deadline, they'll realise we weren't exactly conveying information with her empowerment.

[Aganzir]

Eomer is still talking about a plan but not doing anything to make it happen. Just thoughtless (he shouldn't be, being a live European ) or actually evil?

[Nogrod]

It seems Eomer is just on his way trying to formulate first ideas towards possibly planning an initial sugestion as to whehter someone might build up scheme or something...

I'm afraid it's coming a bit late as I'm quite ready to turn to bed pretty soon.


EDIT: X'd with clearly the same notion...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Great, so just now Eomer started to talk about some possibilities to get the info. But,

a) Sompeetalay.

b) Even if they pick us some nice players to empower, we can't guarantee we'll want to mess with the vote.

c) They can still spend like three hours debating it, and I guess many of us would like to go to sleep, like, now.

EDIT: obviously "triple X"

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Eomer is still talking about a plan but not doing anything to make it happen. Just thoughtless (he shouldn't be, being a live European ) or actually evil?

Good point - he's European, he should know better regarding the dead Europeans (has he been killing us all along, so he could be the last European standing? Okay, with Lommy and Mith and Kath apparently... did I miss somebody else?) Then again, of course we've been *cough cough* sometimes staying up to the DL in the previous days, but heck, it isn't weekend anymore...

Maybe it should just be Nerwen. (I just hope the Wolves don't write something like "if you dreamed Lottie innocent, vote Nerwen!")

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Good point - he's European, he should know better regarding the dead Europeans (has he been killing us all along, so he could be the last European standing? Okay, with Lommy and Mith and Kath apparently... did I miss somebody else?) Then again, of course we've been *cough cough* sometimes staying up to the DL in the previous days, but heck, it isn't weekend anymore...

Weeeell. There's been a European kill every. single. night. That's statistically more than can be expected. It's got to mean something, huh?

Maybe it should just be Nerwen. (I just hope the Wolves don't write something like "if you dreamed Lottie innocent, vote Nerwen!")

Hahaha that would be almost too perfect!

[Aganzir]

Again, Nilp was among the first to start talking about a communication plan. However, all he gave was an idea - nothing about the details of carrying it out. It was similar yesterday and it took Firefoot to get it going (why are you dead dear?). I'm wondering if he's trying to appear helpful without committing, or if taking control and making decisions just doesn't come naturally to him.

[Rikae]

Is anyone else likely to be around at DL, besides tp, Mac, Lottie & I? Firefoot?

Would it be reasonable to split the vote between two acceptable choices, in case someone posts a list that would make it bad for us to pick one of them?

I don't want to risk a tied vote in the end, or letting the wolves choose the direction of the vote, but if we have enough innocents around at DL it could be safe. If it's those people I listed, though, we've got two wolves, two Nerwen-claimed innocents, and me. I like those numbers but you probably don't.

[Rikae]

Of course, I would always like those numbers, whatever I am.

Never mind anyway, it looks like they're about to post a list. Although I don't know how they plan on giving two options for each - they don't have enough people.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Of course, I would always like those numbers, whatever I am.

I was going to point out.

Still, it's 1 am and I doubt I'll stick around long enough to see said list.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Hahaha that would be almost too perfect!

I would especially be perfect if some WW makes the list.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Is anyone else likely to be around at DL, besides tp, Mac, Lottie & I? Firefoot?

Would it be reasonable to split the vote between two acceptable choices, in case someone posts a list that would make it bad for us to pick one of them?

Any splitting is awful.

For myself, personally, I can stay up for a while yet... but I am pretty sure most are not happy about it... well, I am not either... but unless the living guys up there come up with something brilliant fast, I'd wrap it up.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

And I agree that just happily chatting about "we should make a list" makes the posters look helpful, while they actually aren't. (If you ask me, Eomer looked horribly suspicious to me already yesterDay. Or was it even before that? Certainly very shortly after I died.)

I'll give it, what, fifteen minutes and then, Nerwen it is.

[Aganzir]

Do you think Boro could be the seer and Nerwen the special role, and by whatever power invested in her, they've done a clever role swap? That would explain why she's not clear about the dreams and doesn't mind not being protected while Boro made a fake-looking reveal that strongly discouraged the wolves to try and attack him.

[Nogrod]

Anything and whatever is possible in this one...

[Nogrod]

I'd agree with Legate's 15 minutes as well...