Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Thinlómien]

Kuru - claims to be last Night's victim, fair enough. I've been conflicted about him all game and this hardly makes it easier as I'm creating scenarios in my head where the wolves targeted absentee Boro to make Kuru "a known innocent" but I don't know how likely that is. I think we should just wait and see and definitely not lynch him toDay.

Lottie - well, if she isn't innocent, the other option is that the wolves targeted McCaber on Night1 and wolf!Lottie went for the opening when McCaber didn't appear on Day1. That would have been a nice stroke of luck for them, and a risky strategy. It's hard to see Lottie as a wolf - if she is, then hats off for the bold play.

Lalaith - I still think she's likely to be innocent given how generally clueless she's been all game - unless the cluelessness is deliberate, but that's a bit of a dirty strategy in my book and I don't know if Lalaith would go for it. I suppose it's still not impossible for her to be a wolf.

Legate - okay now we get to the funny part. First off, no I don't really find him particularly suspicious - he's been helpful, reasonable, open about his thoughts unlike many others. But what I find suspicious is that he seems to have achieved some sort of a known innocent status, and by what exactly?? It would be a very nice wolf strategy to put one of them on a pedestal like that and then keep clapping him on the back like "look at this innocent guy isn't he marvelous". So anyone who gives Legate a free pass gets a massive side eye from this direction.

Dun - to be entirely honest, he keeps occupying my top suspicion slot. He's nothing but fishy, the only thing I'm wondering about is if he isn't too fishy to be fishy, if you get my meaning.

Boro - like I said, a wolf!ordo might feel a little more "honor-bound" to play and assuming he's innocent is going to be the better option if he gets modfired, but the actual truth could be anything. The couple of posts he made didn't really tell me much, and they didn't really scream innocent to me like innocent Boro's posts often do - but it was probably literally two posts.

Shasta - I keep forgetting he's playing at all, he's been so quiet. Busy, shady or suffering from ordoly lack of motivation? Who knows. But looking at my own list, by pure process of elimination I should find him mightily suspicious. We aren't that many in this village, but we do have three wolves (unless McCaber was indeed one - side note, that might have been a reason for Sally to limit the herbalists powers more than she originally planned). Shasta is a much more likely wolf in my book than, well, almost anyone bar Inzil, so I think he bears more looking at than we've done so far.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Good to see at least someone. The above couple of posts make me feel a bit better about Lommy - it feels like her innocent self, and the way of thinking sorta seems like it. It can still go either way, but it made me feel better.

The same goes for Lalaith, to a certain extent.

That would bring me back to considering Inzil for the lynch toDay. Hmm.

Shasta is nowhere to be seen very much. He would be of course a possible Wolf, but I would so much like to see him appear at first, especially as he had promised to come back with some more ideas.

I trust Kuru, I trust Lottie. Boro is nowhere to be seen.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Lottie - well, if she isn't innocent, the other option is that the wolves targeted McCaber on Night1 and wolf!Lottie went for the opening when McCaber didn't appear on Day1. That would have been a nice stroke of luck for them, and a risky strategy. It's hard to see Lottie as a wolf - if she is, then hats off for the bold play.

Wait, this does not make any sense. If the WWs had targeted McCaber on Night 1, he would have died on Night 2. But he died only on Night 3. Like, I can imagine a situation where the WWs would intentionally forgo the first kill in order to make Lottie look good (it's about the only "conspiracy theory" scheme I really consider possible at all so far, but that's also one extra reason for me to entrust Lottie with the vote so far as she seems trustworthy).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm here, and will (hopefully) be around until deadline.

I'll go and pull some things to respond to momentarily, but regarding the Herbalist and why I think they're out of power - didn't I already say? There was very little reason not to heal Nerwen if the Herbalist had the power to do so - especially considering the stalling strategy we've implemented. Every blocked kill sets the wolves back seriously - after all, this game has a hard limit on Days. Sally said the amount of power the Herbalist has would be based on the number of people playing - with the game for sure ending on Day 6 and the low number of players, I think it very likely that the Herbalist only had one save. That's not being a pessimist - that's being a realist.

[Boromir88]

The weekend snuck up and smacked me hard. But I promise I'm only mostly dead, which means I'm slightly alive. I just need a miracle to figure out what the heck has happened in the last 1.5-2 days. (No this isn't a counter to Kuru'a black breath, the weekend thoroughly tried to kill me...but not dead enough!)

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

The weekend snuck up and smacked me hard. But I promise I'm only mostly dead, which means I'm slightly alive. I just need a miracle to figure out what the heck has happened in the last 1.5-2 days. (No this isn't a counter to Kuru'a black breath, the weekend thoroughly tried to kill me...but not dead enough!)

Yay Boro's back!

My joy is nearly inexpressible!

I say "nearly" because there is the possibility that he might be bad.

However, in all seriousness and semi-OCC, I really don't want to see anybody else get modfired. I want to see how this game genuinely plays out.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Yay Boro's back!

My joy is nearly inexpressible!

I say "nearly" because there is the possibility that he might be bad.
.

I wouldn't be throwing any parties. I'm likely to be pretty useless for as long as I'm still around, just a tired soul who's going to be an body for the cold stone tomb whenever the conspirators get into a sticky spot. (I see it's kinda started to happen).

But rest assured I won't go out THAT way (mod-firing). The conspirators will have to stick their necks out if they want me gone...I just can't see (nor should anyone expect) myself doing anything to make them want to get rid of me this time. :/

[Inziladun]

Hm. Lal's latest does make her look sketchier. I have to remember though, as others have noted, there's no reason Legate should have a free pass. He certainly wouldn't be my lynch choice though.

I have to say too, this game thus far has done a fantastic job of keeping me wondering about everyone.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I think it's worth talking about which win condition we want to fulfill.

From the admin thread -

The Ward is evacuated safely under two conditions:
1. All conspirators are eliminated before reinforcements arrive.
2. Either the bard or the herbalist is still alive when reinforcements arrive, and the population of innocent souls in the Ward either outnumbers or equals that of the conspirators.

Now, the game ends on Day 6. We aren't going to get a lynch that day, but conversely, the person whom the conspirators demoralize the Night before won't have had time to die. This means, in game terms, that we have five lynches to play with.

Now, we've already given up two of those with our no-lynch plan the past two days. In order to fulfill the first win condition, we'd have to be right each time we lynch, the next three days. That's certainly something we can try for, if we think we can pull it off, but it might be worth considering the second condition.

There are nine people alive - it's currently a 6/3 split in our favor. By tomorrow, Day 4, (if we no-lynch) it'll be 5/3 (assuming no Herbalist save). If we no-lynch again, on Day 5 (the final day) it'll be 4/3. Someone will likely die that night (all of this is assuming no more Gifted saves), but 3/3 is still equal; provided either the Herbalist or the Bard is still alive, we'll win.

I'm not sure it's the spirit of the game to never lynch anyone, but I do think it's an option that should be discussed. Anyone can check my math in case I'm wrong.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Kuru

Yes, that’s been an assumption lots of people have made, but then I got thinking, what if he'd been a wolf? I remembered someone had thought there were just two wolves - I went back and checked, and it was Legate . So then I thought, lets say McCaber was a wolf who hadn’t showed up – might this be a slip from a fellow wolf who knew they were only two around?
I know he's a top-grade player and so unlikely have made such a careless slip were he a wolf. But you never know. Legate seems to be very widely trusted at the moment. I know he carried out the will of the village on the first day and I do think he appears very helpful, but I don’t want to trust him blindly - I personally would much prefer Lottie as representative.

Then there’s our current sick patient, Kuru. No-one has come forward to counterclaim against him, but might the no-show of Boro yesterday tempt the wolves to risk breathing on him (Boro I mean) and then sending one of their number in to make a false claim? There is no reason that the wolves might not assume what most of the rest of us did, that Nerwen would be saved by the herbalist last night, in which case their situation would be getting desperate and they’d be prepared to take risks in order to get a kill.
An appearance by Boro himself would therefore be very welcome for a number of reasons.

How would Legate have known that McCaber wasn't going to show up? I didn't know the game was starting until our dearest moddess messaged me on Facebook about it - it wouldn't have been reasonable at that point to assume that just because McCaber didn't show up on Night One that he wasn't going to show up at all. Your point about Legate seems to be grasping at straws, and so does your point about Kuru. A Kuruwolf would have nothing to gain from faking a claim. He was already widely trusted. You seem to be scrambling for reasons to suspect Legate and Kuru, possibly because in a village this small, eliminating two people from the pool of possible wolves is a very bad thing - for the wolves. This post makes me feel much, much worse about you.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Good to see at least someone. The above couple of posts make me feel a bit better about Lommy - it feels like her innocent self, and the way of thinking sorta seems like it. It can still go either way, but it made me feel better.

The same goes for Lalaith, to a certain extent.

I agree with you about Lommy, but not Lalaith. I'd say my priorities have shifted: I would much prefer to lynch Lalaith toDay at this point. Lommy's more recent posts have felt much more like her usual innocent self.

Edit: xed with Boro - good to see you!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, I think there is a certain generic approach Shasta has like this, almost always. Speaking of generic approaches however, where his proverbial psychic powers are in this game?

They're still around, because I'll be honest - I still don't see what's so suspicious about Inzil. I think the most recent point against him was made by you, Legate, and it was a very Lottie-esque "well he just sounds overzealous"-type thing to say.

[Kuruharan]

There are some curious harmonies to the posts of Lalaith that I find suspicious.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

but might the no-show of Boro yesterday tempt the wolves to risk breathing on him (Boro I mean) and then sending one of their number in to make a false claim?

And

Originally Posted by Lommy

as I'm creating scenarios in my head where the wolves targeted absentee Boro to make Kuru "a known innocent"

Food for thought.

Originally Posted by Lommy

But what I find suspicious is that he seems to have achieved some sort of a known innocent status, and by what exactly?? It would be a very nice wolf strategy to put one of them on a pedestal like that and then keep clapping him on the back like "look at this innocent guy isn't he marvelous". So anyone who gives Legate a free pass gets a massive side eye from this direction.

Fair enough.

Legate is likely innocent (and at this point in the game, pretty much has to be treated as one) because he was the first to publically advocate the risky and controversial plan of Not Lynching. He stuck to his guns on this point and the plan is/was a tactically and strategically sound one given the parameters of this game. If you want further explanation of why this is so, please go back and review our posts on the subject as I really don’t want to rehash the whole thing here.

Now, it is possible that this is all a cunning plot on his part, but if it is he deliberately set himself a steep challenge by making the game much harder on himself on a fundamental level so if he pulls it off, good on him.

But I don’t think that is at all likely and we can’t behave like it is.

I'm also growing concerned that the ordos are going to end up essentially forfeiting the game through modfiring which would be a very disappointing outcome on an intriguing and as far as I know fairly unique set-up for a game.

EDIT: Xed with Shasta