WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Boromir88]

What I want to try to figure out here, Rikae is definitely a wolf...but I can't figure out Mac.

I chose to protect him on Night 3, from the narration it looked like it was a successful defense, and hence why I was so staunchly defending him yesterday and why I left this clue...

If it was up to Me, that is, Another choice may prove to be Catastrophic...

Edit:

But if you protected Mac and there was no kill that means it's likely the cursed was turned~Farael

Oh that's what this must have met in the narration...darn tricky narrations I got to thinking I had two successful protections.

"Nay!" answered the fog. "It is I who have had the victory this night."

[Boromir88]

Oh...and before I leave in a little bit, sorry if this puts you in danger buddy, but morm is innocent too. I was able to communicate with Valier, and her last choice to kill was morm. That is why I suddenly switched after Eomer pointed this out. I missed that little bit at first :

I note that the Hunter only kills if her chosen villain was indeed a wolf (from the game rules).

[The Saucepan Man]

Cripes!

OK, so if I have it right, there are two possible scenarios, one of which is the correct one:

1) Farael is the Seer, Boro the Ranger, and Mac and Rikae both Wolves. In this scenario, it looks likely that the Cursed was awakened on Night 3.

2) Mac is an Ordo, Rikae the Ranger, and Farael and Boro both Wolves (or one a Cobbler). In this scenario, it seems that the Cursed may have been awakened last Night.

Wow! I knew that we had bold Wolves. I worked out overNight that only two living villagers have never voted for a Wolf - Farael and the Might - which indicates that, unless both are Wolves (which I thought unlikely then, and think even less likely now), there has been at least one Wolf-on-Wolf vote ending in the death of a Wolf. But it seems that they are even bolder than I imagined.

Right now, I really don’t know who to trust. After Nerwen’s death, I must say that I thought Farael looked bad. After all, his vote on Day 2 meant that Valier died instead of Nerwen and his vote yesterDay might be construed as an attempt to save Nerwen.

That said, I have suspected Mac throughout much of the proceedings, and would not be at all surprised if he turned out to be a Wolf. I also found Rikae’s last minute switch to Nerwen yesterDay strange and wondered whether it might be a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. I find it quite credible that the Wolves would sacrifice another of their number, given that she was under such pressure, to gain credibility in future Days. In fact, if either Boro or Rikae is a Wolf, then there was most definitely a Wolf-on-Wolf vote to kill Nerwen. Note, whichever one is a Wolf, they could have voted differently, and probably killed an innocent, yet chose to vote Nerwen (although it is, I suppose, possible that Boro is a Cobbler rather than a Wolf).

As for Boro, well I have pretty much trusted him thus far. I noticed the hints yesterDay (but didn‘t get the Mac thing), and that lends some credibility to his story. But why would a Ranger hint so obviously, when it could only lead to his death? And why wasn’t he killed last Night?

I also think it worth raising one further possibility. We know that there are a number of secret roles, giving rise to a twist or twists. Is it possible that one or more of toDay’s revelations are a consequence of this? Might there be a false Seer? Might other revelations be the product of some secret role bearing its own agenda? Even if this be the case, however, I cannot see that there would be two Rangers, or even a false Ranger. Surely, either Boro or Rikae is up to no good.

I would suggest that the best way forward is to compare toDay’s revelations against the background of the past few Days’ votes and behaviour. My instinct is to trust Farael and Boro, but I cannot be at all certain at present.

[The Saucepan Man]

Some quick thoughts from the votes and past behaviour.

Given that Nerwen is a Wolf, Kath, Isabellkya, morm and Eomer are, for their continued attacks on her, looking quite good to me right now. Although I would be interested to know why Eomer changed the habit of the previous two Days and voted for The Might yesterDay.

The Might’s defence of Nerwen on Day 1 makes him look quite bad. But, unless he is a Wolf to Farael or Boro’s Cobbler, he could not have been a Wolf on Day 1.

Rikae voted in bandwagons against innocents on Day 1 and Day 2. Yet put in a decisive vote for a Wolf yesterDay. What I would like to know from her is why she has appeared to suspect Mac throughout Days 2 and 3, yet pulled back from voting for him both Days, claiming that he should be given more time. Also, why she protected him at Night when she was openly suspecting him during the Day. I think that Mac and Rikae’s interaction throughout will be worth reviewing. Funnily enough, it was Nogrod that first raised the possibility of them being Wolves together. Perhaps, as I said before, he was telling a truth to conceal it.

As for the voting yesterDay, some more questions:

Rikae, why did you switch at the last minute to Nerwen?
Same question to Boro.
Mac, why didn’t you switch to Nerwen to save yourself?
Same question to Aganzir.

Also, a point that Legate raised, I think, but worth raising again. If Mac is a Wolf, why on earth did Nerwen switch her vote to him, rather than to Aganzir? Is Aganzir the Cursed? Strange that she should make such a case against Mac, if that be the case. Or did they decide to reenact Day 1 and agree that one of them could be sacrificed to make the other look better. If so, why didn’t Mac vote for Nerwen? That switch of Nerwen’s is the one thing that really makes me hesitate over Mac being a Wolf.

It's late here, and I have neither the time nor the inclination to go back over the proceedings thus far to do any detailed analysis. I shall try tomorrow, but it is New Year's Eve in my head and I have imaginary guests coming, so I don't know how much I can be present in this village.

[The Saucepan Man]

Bah! I couldn’t sleep with all this buzzing round in my head, so here’s my theory wot I have come up with.

Farael is a Wolf. With hindsight, his voting is quite suggestive of it. He voted for Shasta on Day 1, someone who the Wolves had either figured to be the Seer (for his first post comments on Nogrod and Nerwen) or an easy Day 1 kill, or both. He voted for Valier on Day 2, which helped to save Nerwen that Day. He tried very hard to get Mac (an innocent in this scenario) killed yesterDay in order to save Nerwen again.

So why does a Wolf come up with this Seer ploy on Day 4, having already lost two of his comrades, knowing that it will be the death of him eventually? It seems an unlikely thing to do, but I'm pretty sure that we have a bold pack of Wolves on our hands and perhaps they thought that it was worth it to get either Mac or Rikae lynched toDay or alternatively flush out the real Seer. Possibly, if they have gained the Cursed, they think that the remaining two Wolves have a good chance of toughing it out.

Boro is the Cobbler. He didn’t know who the Wolves were, which explains his vote yesterDay for Nerwen. He dropped a few Ranger hints yesterDay to muddy the waters (perhaps guessing that the Cursed had been found and trying to disguise it), but at the same time warned the Wolves off by saying that it would not be worth their while to attack him at Night (or words to that effect, if I recall correctly). ToDay, he has correctly identified Farael’s revelation as a ploy, and has played along in support of it.

OK, it’s just a theory and I am by no means wholly convinced of it. But I can imagine it, or something like it, being possible, and it would certainly explain the votes of Nerwen and Farael yesterDay.

And now I really must away to the land of nod. Hopefully, when I return, there will be more to work on to help me make up my mind as I really am torn at present.

[mormegil]

Wow! So after Nerwen's death and being a wolf I thought I had a good handle on the goings on, but I must say that I am fully confused. I think SpM is being rather wise in looking objectively on it. The problem as I see it, is there are going to be two groups:

Farael, Boro, Mac and Rikae

and

The rest of us.

Obviously the rest of us are the larges voting block and it is up to us to decide. I think we should be as objective as possible and try and sort this mess out. Of course, there is the chance that there is a wolf amongst us which might sway us a bit but one out of so many is fairly negligible at this point.

I'm trying to remember where I read this, but something I read brought to my mind that Mac may have been the cursed turned evil. That would explain why he was going after Nogrod on day 1, he unknowingly was attacking a future ally. I think it is safe to say that if Mac is a wolf so is Rikae and that Farael is telling the truth. The question, in this scenario, is who would be the third wolf. I would suggest the Might as he has been fairly defensive of Nerwen. When I came into this today I was convinced to kill the Might, obviously that is on hold now.

I could see that Boro or Farael is a cobbler and one a wolf though I'm not sure of that because if Farael is a cobbler why would Boro come out and do what he has done? Boro, previous to this, was looking pretty good so why would he expose himself. If Farael is a wolf I could see that Boro is a cobbler. Here again, SpM speaks wisdom though. Could Farael be a false seer and unwittingly flushed out our ranger? I doubt the possibilty of two cobblers but it's something to consider.

Right now the scenario that makes most sense to me is Farael being the seer. He had his dream and wisely stepped forward with his two wolves before risking death. I would like to consult with the other not involved in this and get their take on it, though I'm loth to listen to The Might.

My head is spinning with confusion.

[Farael]

SPM you talked yourself into a knot there... and as much as I'd like to see you dead to avenge past aggravations, you were my night 1 dream and I found you an ordo.

Of course, since there's reason to believe the cursed was turned, you may very well be a wolf now (which would explain your confusing logic) but then, since I know I am the Seer, anyone suspecting me sounds kinda dubious.

Now, Morm voiced one of my biggest fears... my dreams were as follow

Night 1: SPM Innocent (keep in mind the cursed is likely to be turned)
Night 2: Boromir Ranger
Night 3: Macalaure Wolf
Night 4: Rikae Wolf

Now up until Boromir said he was the Ranger I was worried I'd be a false seer... I mean c'mon, a gifted and two wolves in four dreams? but now I'm fairly confident I AM the Seer, unless Phantom has some weird weird twists in mind.

My thoughts on this is that there was some sort of a rift among the Werewolves... it would explain their killing off numbers of their own without it being a nth bluff. Perhaps there were two teams, or perhaps the wolves were each man for themselves... though of course, they can't come out and actively accuse one another since that'd mark them as wolves themselves.

I don't know, I'm trying hard not to focus too much on the twists... right now we have two wolves to lynch and potentially a third one to hunt down and as long as I'm alive and dreaming there's the chance I'll stumble on to the remaining wolf... and then no twists can change that.

[the phantom]

TALLY

Sorry, there's no narrative yet, but I do have the tally up in my day-beginning post.

Carry on.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Two things for start.

1. Why did so few people post while I was sleeping? Not that I don't like reading only a few things after being away for so long, yet where is everyone right now?

2. This did not help. I am still confused.

Now Boro appeared. So whatever the case, we have one Ranger and one Pseudo-Ranger (unless there is another third Ranger somewhere, I am not going to be surprised by anything now). The problem is that all the theories are equally probable. Since Farael came up with Boro on his list - and SpM now after SpM has spoken - only after he revealed, it does not necessarily have to mean Farael speaks truth, it is quite easy to think of this as a response move (wolf would do that, or a cobbler, or whoever). The wolves are bold, whatever the case. SpM's points make sense to me, as do morm's. Yet still, it does not help at all. If I trusted my earlier opinions and judgements, I would trust Mac. But what if...?

Ai, ai. I will probably read and reread and think and rethink and then I will return and hopefully, be more clear later.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Still digesting all this, but I'll answer Saucepan Man's question. I didn't know there was going to be all those retractions at day's end yesterday; I thought it was down to me and Nerwen to vote. Knowing that she could easily counter if I voted for her (by voting Mac or Aganzir) I tried to enlist her help in lynching the Might rather than Mac or Aganzir. Nerwen seemed in an enviable position, and moments later things had contrived to get her killed!

I thought it might give us a talking point today, but perhaps not now.

[Aganzir]

Villagers- 9
Werewolves- 3

+ two dead werewolves. So the cursed was turned. I guess I will take a look at Days 1 and 2 and see if I could figure out whom Mac & Rikae/Nerwen might have wanted to kill (in case the cursed wasn't Rikae or Nerwen).

Originally Posted by Saucie

Mac, why didn’t you switch to Nerwen to save yourself?
Same question to Aganzir.

Honestly, I didn't realise I could have done that. All I could think on those last crazy moments was that it'd be either Mac or me.

Originally Posted by Saucie

If Mac is a Wolf, why on earth did Nerwen switch her vote to him, rather than to Aganzir?

Especially as Rikae had said she'd switch to Nerwen in order to save Mac. Surely Nerwen hadn't missed that; she had to know she was going to die if she voted him. But if both Mac and Rikae are wolves, what a nice little plan it would have been to clear them both.

**

A piece of information: I will be travelling to London with a friend & her family on Jan 2. I guess there's a net access at the hotel, so I should be able to vote & post at least something. But in the worst case I'll miss Day 6.

edit: xed with Eomer

[Boromir88]

But why would a Ranger hint so obviously, when it could only lead to his death? And why wasn’t he killed last Night?~Sauce

I was fully expecting to be dead, but I think Farael's sudden aggressive attack against Mac yesterday tipped the wolves off so I protected Farael. I'm sorry, with this I have to be, how to say...secretive? But, I'm bound to only say this, you'll have to put the pieces together. Yesterday I said there was someone's judgement whom I trust more than my own and I guarded Farael on Night 2 as well...now figure it out.

++Rikae

I don't know if I can get back before the deadline, I hope to be to get down to who this last wolf will be.

[Aganzir]

Ok, this hasn't much to do with the subject, but I found it funny. Could it be another reason why the wolves decided to kill Shasta?

Originally Posted by Shasta's first post

Hmm, Nerwen seems to be anxious to turn the subject onto something harmless. Basket Weaving? The weather? How is this going to help us catch wolves and turn their pelts into fur coats? I've got my eye on you, Nerwen...

**

Rikae, Day 2:

Originally Posted by Rikae

However, (although I hate to say it) Macalaure's post indeed looks sinister to me. I don't see how his arguments against Aganzir for turning so suddenly and viciously against Nogrod don't apply to Mac himself just as well, for although he opposed Nogrod from the beginning, he had little to back it up at first - it came out of the blue in what was quite possibly a preplanned way. Furthermore, his final "PS" sends chills up my spine. There is the same taunting, gloating quality there I saw Macwolf demonstrate in the last game.

Originally Posted by Rikae

At this point, my vote is likely to go to Macalaure, whose suspicions toward Aganzir simply have too little to back them up (why Aganzir? He seems to be just trying to convince us it's possible for her to be a wolf, without telling us why it's likely), or to Valier ...

Rikae, Day 3:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm glad Mac clarified his suspicions of Aganzir. It actually does put my mind at ease, to some degree, about him, although I'm not quite convinced of Aganzir's guilt, either. One thing that does worry me about Aganzir is the whole "he's accusing me so I won't accuse him" thing. It sort of came out of nowhere, seemingly. I think it might be useful to test Mac's "hunch“ on Aganzir – he was, after all, right on Nogrod, and he actually is a highly skilled wolf-hunter. If he's mislead us, we have time to deal with him later.

Based on this quick change, I guess it's safe to say that if either Rikae or Nerwen was the cursed, it was Rikae. On Day 2 she had been suspecting Macalaure to the extent of almost voting him, on Day 3 she was completely on his side. This indicates that she's either the cursed or that she's the seer who dreamt of innocent Mac. It's not hard to decide which one sounds more probable.

I must run now. Back later.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Farael

SPM you talked yourself into a knot there...

Well, I thought myself into a knot there. I was concerned that my earlier suspicion of Mac might be biasing me against him and in favour of you, and so started thinking about the plausibility of you and Boro being Wolves or Wolf and Cobbler. Problem is, I found it quite plausible. Or, should I say, plausible as the Wolves killing one of their number not once but twice.

Originally Posted by Farael

Of course, since there's reason to believe the cursed was turned, you may very well be a wolf now (which would explain your confusing logic) but then, since I know I am the Seer, anyone suspecting me sounds kinda dubious.

Now this I don't like. I come up with a Wolfael theory, and you immediately respond with a post designed to 'get me on side', as it were, while also attempting to tarnish me with possible Cursedness. It doesn't make you look any better in my eyes.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Especially as Rikae had said she'd switch to Nerwen in order to save Mac. Surely Nerwen hadn't missed that; she had to know she was going to die if she voted him. But if both Mac and Rikae are wolves, what a nice little plan it would have been to clear them both.

But surely, if they are both Wolves, it would have made more sense for Rikae to leave her vote where it was (particularly as her last minute switch would draw attention to her) and for Nerwen to switch to you. It might have meant Nerwen being lynched toDay, but it wouldn't have made Rikae and Mac look particularly bad, and would have got rid of an innocent rather than a Wolf yesterDay (assuming that you are innocent).

Arrgh! I am still torn. I need to hear more from Rikae and Mac before making up my mind.

[mormegil]

Okay, I'm back and I see not much has really changed. The discouraging part at this point is how little we've heard from the 'other' group. Only SpM, Agan, Legata and me have posted. Where is Kath, The Might, Isabel and Eomer (both posted a bit but not much). They are four that might bring some help to the table.

The next question I have, is how far do you think that the phantom is willing to go? Meaning how crazy would this 'twist(s)' be? The reason I ask is because there are certain possibilies which in my conspiracy theorist convoluded mind I entertain but am hesistant to bring forward in fear of muddying the waters even further. The reason I don't is because they are so far fetched as to be near impossible, even for the phantom to do.

Now my thoughts haven't changed much and I still think the Boro/Farael combo seems a bit more realistic but the problem I'm having is that I haven't been able to wrap my mind around all the possibilities and widdle it down to the most likely. The variable here is how far is the phantom willing to go. I think for the sake of my sanity, I've drawn a line and stated that the Phantom would not cross this line...and if I do that in all likely hood Farael is the seer.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

There's nothing in the rules about the Ranger and the Hunter being able to communicate in private. Are you, Boromir, perhaps trying to sway Mormegil to your side by buddying up to his innocence? Possibly the only reason you know he is innocent is because he is not a wolf like you.

Just a thought.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Boro

I was fully expecting to be dead, but I think Farael's sudden aggressive attack against Mac yesterday tipped the wolves off so I protected Farael.

But surely, if you are the Ranger and the Wolves had picked up on your hints (which I am sure they would have done), their best move would have been to attack you, given that the Ranger cannot protect himself. Even if they had spotted a Seerish Farael, they could not have known whether he would be protected or not.

If Mac and Rikae are Wolves, I think that you would have been their likeliest target last Night.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

There's nothing in the rules about the Ranger and the Hunter being able to communicate in private. Are you, Boromir, perhaps trying to sway Mormegil to your side by buddying up to his innocence? Possibly the only reason you know he is innocent is because he is not a wolf like you.

Just a thought.

To be honest, I'm kind of a sucker for such tactics. I tend to suspect those that suspect me and vice versa it's fairly pathetic really

I'm glad to see both SpM and Eomer not trusting either party as I think it's 99% certain that you are not both wolves...at least one is innocent and it's good to get your perspective on things.

[The Might]

Well...I feel like a fool now just like in the last game where all those I thought innocents were wolves and vice-versa.
To sum all up, I did trust Nerwen, I did think that she was an ordo based on her decisions, and, yes, I was totally wrong.

The problem is now I have no idea whom to trust and whom to not trust.
I mean, leaving Eomer aside now as he's in the background as most others after the recent events, there are two sides.

I really don't know what to believe about this whole revelation, on one hand it would be nice to think that indeed this is how things are, but on the other hand some things don't add up in my head either based on what has happened so far.
I'll wait to see what happens before I vote, as I am still unsure what side I should support.

[Kath]

Well, I am here, and am reminded of just how much I hate it when so many revelations appear at once. We have:

Farael as Seer.
Rikae as Wolf.
Mac as Wolf.
Boro as Ranger.

Or we have ... what? Rikae as Ranger and nothing else certain? I know which option I'd rather go for.

Farael being the Seer would explain the difference in playing style I've felt from him. But, and there is a but, I am not liking that he only reveals who he has dreamt of if they reveal first. That could make so much sense because obviously you don't want to reveal the Ranger, but it could also be a wonderful wolvish plot.

Oh dear, I think I'm going to start arguing myself in circles like Sauce. I want to trust Farael because look, two wolves! But I'm just not sure. I've been taken in by him before. I would say the simplest way to test the theory would be to lynch Rikae, as she seems to be the lynch pin to this, but if she is the Ranger then we've basically lost Ranger and Seer in one fell swoop as there will be no protection toNight.

I'm going to hang around for a bit, try and make up my mind.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

But surely, if they are both Wolves, it would have made more sense for Rikae to leave her vote where it was (particularly as her last minute switch would draw attention to her) and for Nerwen to switch to you. It might have meant Nerwen being lynched toDay, but it wouldn't have made Rikae and Mac look particularly bad, and would have got rid of an innocent rather than a Wolf yesterDay (assuming that you are innocent).

I agree that it would have made more sense. But all these days we've been discussing why the wolves have decided to do something unexpected, so I don't really know.

Originally Posted by Kath

I would say the simplest way to test the theory would be to lynch Rikae, as she seems to be the lynch pin to this, but if she is the Ranger then we've basically lost Ranger and Seer in one fell swoop as there will be no protection toNight.

If Rikae is the ranger, Farael is not the seer & the real seer is still unknown, so lynching her wouldn't endanger the seer. Or did I miss something?
And what about lynching Mac then?

[Macalaure]

Mac, why didn’t you switch to Nerwen to save yourself?

As I said before, I really did think her innocent. I was prepared to save myself by voting for her, but I thought there were no more votes left - I completely forgot about Nerwen's own. So my main goal remained to get Aganzir lynched, which is why I responded to her "--++" with my own and couldn't retract anymore when I saw what Nerwen did.


I know Farael isn't who he claims he is - or at least not who he thinks he is. I haven't though about the possibility of a false seer before.

But what about Boro? If Boro is telling the truth, then I think the situation looks like this. The wolves tried to kill me in Night 3, after I mostly went after Aganzir all day. This either means that Aganzir is a wolf and I was thought to be the seer, or the wolves tried to frame an innocent Aganzir.

But then, if they thought me to be the seer, why didn't they attack me again last night? I know I'm not the cursed, and even if I was, then Farael had no way of knowing that. (This is a flaw in morm's argument in 406) Did they change their mind because of something I said on Day 3? Did Nerwen see a chance yesterday to save herself (and Aganzir?) and lynch a possible seer at the same time? This doesn't seem to go together well.

Also, if Boro is telling the truth, then Rikae is obviously up to no good. In that case, Farael accidentally called a real wolf a wolf.

Boro can't be a wolf, I think, only a cobbler. But this would then mean that Farael is a wolf and not a cobbler, because two of that sort would be a little too much. Farael indeed could be a false seer. At the moment, this seems to be the most probable scenario to me.

If Boro is lying, then Rikae is the ranger. This would probably mean that Aganzir is innocent, because the wolves never came for me. What is there in Legate's posts that made him a target in Night 3?


I guess tp now has the confusion that he was looking for...

[Kath]

If Rikae is the ranger, Farael is not the seer & the real seer is still unknown, so lynching her wouldn't endanger the seer. Or did I miss something?

Oh you're quite right! I'm sorry, seems I had got muddled. Indeed, we lose the Ranger but the Seer is quite safe. Well now that's interesting.

[mormegil]

Boro can't be a wolf, I think, only a cobbler. But this would then mean that Farael is a wolf and not a cobbler, because two of that sort would be a little too much. Farael indeed could be a false seer. At the moment, this seems to be the most probable scenario to me.

Is it possible that Boro is the ranger and Farael is a cobbler, wolf or false seer? I think in this scenario the false seer is least likely but it did seem odd that Farael waited until Boro proclaimed himself to reveal that he had dreamt of him. I can, in this light, see Farael's move as a perfect cobbler ploy. He not only flushed out the ranger but potentially a seer. If there is a seer out there that is not Farael, I would not recommend coming forward unless you have information that would be vital for us to win.

The more I think about what I said earlier the more imporbable it seems...the scenario I was talking about that I didn't want to bring forward was that Bororanger was cursed too. I really doubt this is possible but what got me thinking of it was when Boro said that he expected himself to be killed last night and well there was no death so???

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, we have to find out. It seems clear to me that our best option is killing Macalaure, because he's certainly not a gifted. Let us discover the rest of the puzzle once we have severed most of this fog. I don't know who is telling the truth, and frankly we don't have to worry too much about it at this stage. There are enough innocent villagers to work it out, whoever dies today.

[Macalaure]

It seems clear to me that our best option is killing Macalaure

I think you're going for the easiest option here. If there was no evidence who is speaking the truth and who is not, I would agree with you. But there is - we can make a good educated guess and not just lynch the seeming best option to find out what he is.


I've been wondering why our two rangers revealed themselves at all. A ranger who is known to the wolves is a dead ranger. If Rikae is for real, she could have waited with her revelation until later in the day. If the village had decided to lynch me first and not her, she would have remained hidden. A cornered wolf might have reacted like her. If Boro is for real.. well.. I don't really see why he would have revealed himself at all, I have to say. Rikae at least was under pressure.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I protected Macalaure on Night2, Legate on Night3, and Macalaure again on Night4 - and you are the one who is done for, once my role is revealed.

Since I won't have too much time to post toMorrow, I'll ask this now eventhough we don't know yet for certain who is lying.
Why did Rikae decide to clear Legate? I think tp hadn't posted the tally yet when she posted this.
Is Rikwolf continuing with too-obvious-for-a-wolf things & mentioning her fellow wolf there or did she just choose him because he was the only one who agreed with them?

[Boromir88]

Is it possible that Boro is the ranger and Farael is a cobbler, wolf or false seer?

No...plain and simple...no.

If Mac and Rikae are Wolves, I think that you would have been their likeliest target last Night.~Sauce

I disagree. I defended Mac two nights ago, and assumed that I had successfully defended him; hence why I dropped off the hints. But, think about it, if I'm dropping off hints that Mac was innocent, and Mac is a wolf, why would the wolves kill me yet? I went way out of my way to throw full support to Mac, and yesterday I definitely didn't want to see him lynched.

I think it was pretty clear to mostly everyone that I had information yesterday, and I came in definitely thinking I was going to be dead. But, I went well out of my way to give Mac a full defense, if the wolves were tipped off that Farael was the seer, they would obviously go after him, if I was fully believing Mac was innocent. Why kill me yesterday than? With the way Farael was attacking Mac yesterday, and the way that I was defending him, perhaps the wolves felt safe that I did not know who the Seer was and hence felt safe trying to kill him. Where then they could properly deal with me the next day. So, why kill me?

I really doubt this is possible but what got me thinking of it was when Boro said that he expected himself to be killed last night and well there was no death so???~morm

That wouldn't make any sense. Since no one has died the last two nights, one of them had to be a successful defense. I believed going into yesterday I had successfully protected Mac, but I believe as I pointed out in the narration, this was not so. The narration makes it clear that something happened to benefit the wolves the wolves on Night 3, the cursed was therefor turned on that night. ,
Night 4 had to have been the successful protection, unless you are going to suggest that there are two cursed?...Or how about this...everyone is cursed, no one will die for at night for the rest of the game...

Although, I wish I hadn't revealed so hastily, because I can blow holes in Rikaes fraudulant reveal and will do so momentarily. Mark my words, you lynch Farael this village deserves to be devoured by the wolves and I am ashamed to be protecting it.

[Aganzir]

I will have to vote now, as my friends decided they'll come here to celebrate New Year. I'm not sure if I can be online at deadline (12 am here), but I'll try.

++ Macalaure

[Macalaure]

I have to leave now, so this is my last chance to change my vote.

While I think that Boro is clearly more likely a cobbler than the ranger, it is still a possibility that is not negligible. I don't feel like doing the work for the wolves, so I won't switch to him.

Rikae is the ranger unless a) Farael is a false seer but one of his dreams happened to be correct b) he is a cobbler and accidentally outed a wolf. Other than that, I have to say that more or less all evidence points towards her speaking the truth. I wonder what it is that Boro promised to come up with.

I know Farael is not the real seer. As a cobbler, he deserves to be lynched. As a false seer I'd feel sorry for him, but he's of no more help than an ordo (me). In fact, he is even less helpful, because as a false seer, he will involuntarily be very confusing for everybody.

I think I will keep my vote where it is. From my point of view, it makes the most sense.


Happy New Year to everyone!

[Boromir88]

I became suspicious of Rikae after Nerwen's lynching yesterday, mostly because of her Day 1 activities.

If you notice, Rikae managed to get into a tustle with Nogrod over his playing style, yet anyone who suspected Nogrod she tried to get suspicion turned towards them...she did the same for anyone who suspected Nerwen. Shasta was after both Nerwen and Nogrod, morm was after Nerwen, and Rikae throughout Day 1 says that both Shasta and morm was acting "jumpy." hmmm...

Or how about the playful attitudes between Mac, Nogrod, and Rikae through Day 1?

Rikae calls out Nogrod for his desire to lynch the "quiets." Nogrod says Mac and Rikae are plotting against him. Rikae points out that Nogrod always seems to accuse her and Mac of plotting together. And when I explained to Rikae what I thought Nogrod's typical thought pattern was she says, she knew but she always gets into an argument with Nogrod over it. In the midst of all this stuff between the three they seem quite jovial about it, using all sorts of smilies and winks. It looks all too much like a group of wolves who are not only willing to lynch eachother to look innocent, but are having a good time laughing about accusing eachother.

Let's look now at Day 3 and Rikae's vote for Nerwen to save Mac. Rikae was trying to save Mac...quite the noble thing to do actually, and to answer why doesn't she vote for an innocent? Since Mac is a wolf, and there is no doubt in me now that he is a wolf, what looks better for Rikae if she's trying to save him? To vote and lynch an innocent, or she could cast a vote to hang another wolf partner of hers who as in trouble. Also. I haven't checked the times but Rikae's last vote turns out to be a waste, as my vote for Nerwen sealed the deal.

[Boromir88]

While I think that Boro is clearly more likely a cobbler than the ranger~Mac

Why are people trying to say there is a cobbler in this village as if it was a known certain fact? There is no cobbler role that our moderator has listed in the "rules" so why is it being pushed that a cobbler in this village is a known certainty?

Edit:

Also, use your brains and think who the real ranger is. Rikae clearly did not know that as the Ranger she could communicate with Val.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hmm, people are panicking. It's all a bit strange from my, rather comfortable, vantage point as an uninteresting Ordo. There will be innocent lives lost, but that's the way of the game.

There are plenty of villagers left to work out the truths from this debris, once we get some certainties. Certainties come with a lynching tonight. While I can see how both sides can be telling the truth, intuitively I believe Farael and do not think an evil one would have done what he did at this stage in the game, when there is still so much time.

So:

++MACALAURE

[The Saucepan Man]

Darn! I haven't much time, and I doubt that I will be back before the deadline, what with having guests coming round an' all. So I am going to have to work on the basis of who has come across as most and least credible to me toDay.

++Farael

[Rikae]

I have been operating, since the end of day 1, on the assumption that Macalaure was innocent and, quite likely, the seer. Yes, I *do* believe I can read him quite well (as several games testify) and I thought that the way he went after Nogrod on Day1 would make him a likely target for the wolves, therefore I protected him on Night2. Being unable to protect him on Night3, I thought it was best to throw some suspicion his way, leading the wolves to consider him lynchable and therefore leave him alone for the night, while, as you see, I tried to deflect suspicion from him at the same time. I also didn't want to draw attention to both of us by accepting his ideas too easily. (Incidentally, it was Boro's "known innocent“, Morm, who began the "Mac & Nogrod wolf-on-wolf“ theorizing that day.)
On day 3, I voted for Aganzir basically based on Mac's hunch (which I thought might be a dream); however, seeing how close the voting was I waited at the keyboard, fully suspecting some sort of evil last-minute voting. When I saw Nerwen's post – which claimed to be voting for Mac to save "whoever“ was ahead, although this was clearly not The Might – the second on her list – with this fake, rushed quality which, due to the devious timing (the very last minute!) I did not buy, I instantly switched my vote. I never saw such an evil-looking post in my life – a last minute vote for a seerish person with absolutely no reason behind it at all. (Save "whoever“? What?)
I protected Mac last night, and I would like to think I was successful. However, the fact that he was so heavily suspected makes me wonder whether the wolves didn't, in fact, count on getting him lynched today and attack someone else last night, finding the cursed. It may be we are dealing with three wolves at the moment, in which case this Boro/Farael plot might just be a bold plot to get rid of the seer and ranger and let the third wolf coast to victory. At any rate, Legate is innocent, and if we lynch Farael today, I can protect him again tonight. The wolves will kill either Mac or me but you will have the other two as known innocents tomorrow and Boro and Farael will be revealed for what they are.

In response to Boro's fabricated argument above - Nogrod, Macalaure & I have quite a bit of WW history together. Nogrod's constant suspicions that we were lovers ended up being a self-fulfilling prophecy in RL - of course we joke about it. As for communicating with the hunter, Boro, adding additional rules where they are convenient for you is a rather obvious ploy, don't you think?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I don't know. It looks whatever the case, there is about 50% chance of wrong choice and the result if we are wrong is the same for both cases - it would go for several days. However, I am more inclined not to jump into attempts but rather stand with trusting Mac. There is this Nerwen-vote thing that I still can't believe to be a work of wolves.

Originally Posted by Boro

Also. I haven't checked the times but Rikae's last vote turns out to be a waste, as my vote for Nerwen sealed the deal.

Your votes were cast at the same time, so you most probably crossed.

Speaking of that, are you not pushing the saw too hard here? I know this is crucial time, yet getting carried off while argumenting and coming up with invalid arguments does not help, rather it could mean harm to you.

Originally Posted by Boro

Rikae clearly did not know that as the Ranger she could communicate with Val.

This is also one thing - there is no such a thing mentioned in the rules. Or at least how I read it:

Ranger- Each night the Ranger must select someone to protect from the Werewolves and pm the name to me. If he picks the same person that the Werewolves pick for their kill, that person survives the night. If he protects the Cursed, the Cursed cannot be turned that night. The Ranger cannot protect himself, and he cannot protect the same person two nights in a row.

Hunter- The Hunter can, at any time, pm me with the name of a person he believes to be a Werewolf. The Hunter can change his pick at any time. If the Hunter is lynched during the day or killed at night, the most recent person he chose to hunt will die also, IF a Werewolf.

So it is also possible that the Ranger and the Hunter cannot communicate and you made this stuff up to gain more support from others.

All in all, we will learn after toDay. So how that is - whether Farael is really what he says he is and Mac and Rikae are Wolves or whether Farael came up to set the trap for the real Seer while providing cover for the other Wolves with a bold move (or whether he is a false one or whatever madness) - depends on our votes. Currently, I am inclined to trust Mac & Rikae and am slightly suspicious of Boro (if he's really not trying to hard) and Farael, but there is still time. Will be back later.

EDIT: x-ed with Eomer, Mac and Rikae

[The Might]

Well, as I have said in the last post, there are certain things that don't really seem to add up very well.

As such I am not really sure what to believe about this revelation. I actually thought what Farael and Boro would really have to gain if this happened. Well, we would indeed lynch an innocent toDay, but they would be clear targets the following days.
So I will trust them for now and vote

++ Macalaure

Of course depending of the outcome of toDay's vote I will probably see if I trusted the good site right now or not.

Wish you all a Happy New Year and may 2008 be the year in which all your wishes come true! (except if you're wolves)

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by The Might

As such I am not really sure what to believe about this revelation. I actually thought what Farael and Boro would really have to gain if this happened.

They probably think they will lynch the seer toDay, kill the ranger toNight, and only lose one of the possibly 3 remaining wolves and a cobbler for their troubles. That's what.

[Rikae]

Look, I'm going to be away from the keyboard for some time now (I'm preparing for a trip to Germany - yes, really, make of that what you will...), but I would just like to add one more thought:
What we have here is my word and Mac's vs. Farael & Boro's. It seems to me as though WW has become too easily manipulated by the first person to boldly jump out with a "gifted-revelation" - you don't have to just take any of our words for it. Go back and look over what's happened in this game, and make up your minds based on the evidence. If you still believe Farael and Boro, well, I've failed you and I'm sorry. At the very least, I can take comfort in the fact that I got Boro to reveal his evil intent.

[mormegil]

It's now lunch time and I've had a bit of time to look over a few things and found something rather interesting.

Originally Posted by Farael

While I don't want to encourage the Ranger to speak up, It might help us if he mentioned whom he protected the last two nights, should she choose to talk.

As I've said, I've been fairly uncertain but leaning towards trusting Farael until I reread his posts from today and early on this stuck out to me and lends credence to my thought that he is at least a cobbler, but since, as Boro points out, we do not know for certain there is one he could easily be a wolf. My guess is they got the cursed two nights ago and got a bit jumpy about loosing two others. They probably have no idea who the seer is so Farael stepped forward to sacrifice himself in hopes of luring out the seer and ranger. Sadly it has worked in the case of the ranger although who is the real ranger is beyond me. But I'm inclined to trust Boro in this. But in the aforementioned quote it seems as though Farael is trying very subtely to get the ranger and seer to reveal themselves. He, of course, can't mention the seer because he has claimed to be one himself.

I think this is a risky move but my thought is that these wolves are bold enough to risk it.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Hmm, people are panicking. It's all a bit strange from my, rather comfortable, vantage point as an uninteresting Ordo

This is something from Eomer that caught my attention. Why is he comfortable. I'm uncomfortable as all get out right now and confused as heck. It always strikes me the wrong way when somebody so overtly pushes their innocence. I don't want to do anything about it today as we've got bigger fish to fry but I wanted to make mention of it so as to not lose sight of it in the future.

++Farael