Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[Lalaith]

What an extraordinary 24 hours in this village. The slaying of a werewolf the first day is unprecedented indeed. I for one did not think a wolf would be as talkative as Mithalwen was.
But I am very sorry for the loss of Alcarillo and Mormegil, they were deep-thinking insightful members of our community who could have made useful contributions in this dreadful time.
I don't know what the rest of you think but I am inclined to absolve the first four on Saucie's list of votes for Mithalwen, of being werewolves.
That is not to say that one of them couldn't be the cobbler or the Black Beorning. Neither of the Cobbler or the BB knows who is a wolf or a villager any more than the rest of us do, am I right?

[Meneltarmacil]

LMP doth not really stande out as being suspicious to me. Yes, he mightst be ye Seere, ye Cobbler, or possibly even a Beaste, but his poste doth not give him much reason to suspecte any of these things. He did say that he’d be unable to say anything else and that doth explaine why he woulde be silente afterwards, and why he voted so quickly. It was lucky that he caused Mithalwen to jump on his bandwagon, though.

Those who voted for Mith should be investigated in mine opinion. It is certainly possible that a Wolfe woulde vote for her to cast off suspicion, and if so, only one Wolfe woulde probably be found among them. However, as there is also a Beare in our midste, more than one foule beaste may be among them.

Gil-Galad’s vote for Gurthang looketh suspicious to me (ye Saucepan Man noticed this earlier), as his vote tied Gurthang and Mithalwen for ye most votes immediately after my vote placed Mith in ye position to be lynched. Almost as if he was trying to keep her from yon gallows...

In defense of myself, I pointe oute that I was already suspicious of Mithalwen before anyone voted for her.

Finally, to appease yon Animal Rights Activiste, I suggeste using ye guillotine for lynchings, as it maketh for a quick deathe unlike ye gallows.

[CaptainofDespair]

Well, well...

We got ourselves one wolf. But, it is indeed sad that we must lose Alcarillo and mormegil, possibly due to it. We must avenge them, by gutting the foul beasts who have slain them (after a hanging, of course)! But, where to look, and who to suspect?

Well, I have a few suspects on my list of 'Who done it?':

LMP- I believe there might be a possible connection between the 'early' votes of LMP and Mithalwen. Since Mithalwen turned out to be a werewolf, and had voted with LMP for 'Gurthang', suspicion of a connection lingers. It may be nothing, but I'd rather be sure.

Wilwarin- I view his responses as suspicious. Sure, there were the 'restraints' to voting, but he had few suspicions of anyone. It sounds like a wolf trying to avoid detection, maybe.

Gurthang- He is still questionable, though my suspicions of him are minimal at the moment. A few more insights from him might help sway me either way.

Menel- He is now on my list. His comments on switching from the gallows to the guillotine draw suspicion. Perhaps he is only catering to Gurthang's activist-ness. But, he could be a wolf or the bear, hoping to give his mates (or himself) a clean death, should they be caught. I could also just be paranoid.

Lalaith- She seems to be trying very hard to fly under the radar. Perhaps she is a wolf? We will see.

Gil-Galad- His vote for Gurthang seems suspicious. Only he, Mithalwen (known wolf), and LMP voted for Gurthang. Since I am suspicious of LMP as a conspirator, I feel Gil deserves some suspicion as well.

[Lalaith]

She seems to be trying very hard to fly under the radar

Hardly, friend shrewmeister. I was the second (by seconds) to post today. And as you can see from my post above, I no longer suspect you, of wolfishness at least.
This cobbler and bear business makes it all much more confusing, to be sure. Can someone confirm: am I right in thinking that if the Seer dreams of the Bear, s/he is told it is just a normal villager?

[The Saucepan Man]

Here is a summary of the voting on Day 1 which, I believe, may well assist us in our deliberations today. It is in the order in which each vote was cast and identifies the state of the voting after each vote cast.

1. LMP for Gurthang (Gurthang 1)
2. Mithalwen for Gurthang (Gurthang 2)
3. CaptainofDespair for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 1)
4. SamwiseGamgee for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 2)
5. Durelin for Firefoot (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 2; Firefoot 1)
6. Meneltarmacil for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 3; Firefoot 1)
7. Gil-Galad for Gurthang (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 3; Firefoot 1)
8. Boromir88 for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 4; Firefoot 1)
9. Alcarillo for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 5; Firefoot 1)
10. Nonnacedak for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1)
11. Mormegil for Meneltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1)
12. Laitaine for Alcarillo (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1)
13. Gurthang for Durelin (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
14. Lalaith for Menltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
15. Arcticstorm for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 7; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
16. Dancing spawn for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 8; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
17. The Saucepan Man for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 9; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
18. Firefoot for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 10; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)

Did not vote: Encaitare and wilwarin538 (although wilwa had earlier explained that she might not be able to vote).

Now, I believe that all of those who voted early on for Mithalwen are probably innocent of Werewolvery. The voting was too tight for another Wolf to risk casting a vote for her throughout much of the day. So I am fairly confident that the following are not Wolves (although any one of them, with the exception of course of Alcarillo, might still be the Black Beorning):

CaptainofDespair
SamwiseGamgee
Meneltarmacil
Boromir88
Alcarillo (as the Night’s events have so unfortunately proved)
Nonnacedak

CaptainofDespair and SamwiseGamgee could have been voting thinking that the votes would not accumulate as they did. But this would have been risky for a Wolf because much suspicion had already been cast in Mithalwen’s direction before the votes against her began to stack up.

I would also conclude that Gurthang is probably no Wolf because Mithalwen voted for him when there was a lot of suspicion against him. I do not believe that she would have voted for another Wolf in those circumstances.

Arcticstorm, dancing spawn, Firefoot and The Saucepan Man (yes, that’s me) all voted for Mithalwen when her death seemed likely or was a foregone conclusion, so their innocence is perhaps less easy to determine from the outcome. However, arctictorm and Firefoot both voiced firm suspicions against Mithalwen earlier in the Day. Dancing spawn’s vote sealed Mith’s fate and, although Mith was probably a gonner already given that I had indicated that I would most likely be voting for her and wilwa had said she was unlikely to vote, I really have no basis for suspecting her. Her contributions yesterday seemed sensible and helpful to our cause. As for me, I had already indicated that I would most probably be voting for Mithalwen before arcticstorm and dancing spawn voted. And I can assure you that I am neither Wolf nor Black Beorning.

In light of the above, I believe that we should today focus on those who went against the “bandwagonning” for Mithalwen. Of these, we can of course discount mormegil (who was in any event, as I have said, instrumental in flushing her out). The others are:

Durelin
Gil-Galad
Laitaine
Lalaith

Of these, I would say that Gil-Galad is particularly suspicious because he tried to switch the votes back on Gurthang just when they were beginning to gather for Mithalwen. With his vote, he brought it back to a tie between them. At the very least, he has a case to answer. I am also curious about Durelin’s seemingly random vote for Firefoot. She seemed very keen to divert the Village away from the ‘obvious’ suspects, one of whom we now know to have been a Wolf.

And we should not forget littlemanpoet who voted rashly yesterday for someone who I believe is not a Wolf, and who was mildly defended by Mithalwen.

The remaining two Villagers are Encaitare and wilwarin538, neither of whom voted. Wilwa gave advance warning that she might not be able to and, although that does not clear her, it makes her less suspicious in my eyes. Encaitare, on the other hand, contributed only once (and rather aggressively so) and chose not to vote. I suspect that she may be the Cobbler.

Based on the analysis above, my current main suspects are as follows (in order of suspicion):

1. Gil-Galad
2. Durelin
3. Laitaine
4. Encaitare
5. Lalaith
6. LMP

Of course, all of the above is aimed at hunting down a Wolf. I realise that it does not help us at all in identifying the Black Beorning. But then what do we have to go on as far as the Bear is concerned? I would dearly like to track him or her down too, but I fear it may be difficult. Does anyone have any ideas on that score?

[wilwarin538]

I know this might sound crazy but I don't beleive that we will have any idea of who the Beorning is until he's killed atleast three people. Then we could try to figure out who would be most likely to want to kill those three people, who knows we might even be able to figure it out with two , or maybe even one person. So, who would want to kill Alcarillo?

PS:My reason for not voting is because of time, day starts and ends at 8am for me. So I will be voting before I go to bed which would make my vote a little early.(sorry if this isn't supposed to be here )

[Lalaith]

Alas I do not have time to respond fully to your post Saucie but on this:

But then what do we have to go on as far as the Bear is concerned?

we are agreed.

Which is why I repeat my question above - can the Seer reveal the Bear?

[wilwarin538]

...can the Seer reveal the Bear?

Yes, I believe s(he) can, its the Cobbler they can't reveal is it not?

[Oddwen]

Yes.

[Gil-Galad]

Hear Ye Hear Ye Sad news again for the death of two residents of our fair village! Mormegil and Alcarillo! Tis a shame

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

So, who would want to kill Alcarillo?

Well, Alcarillo voted for Mithalwen, so that doesn't help. Other than her, he voiced suspicions of Gurthang and LMP. But that was early on, when most others were thinking along the same lines, so it doesn't really take us much further either. Laitaine voted for Alcarillo but, unless she is going for a bold double-bluff, it would seem rather clumsy for the Bear to kill, on Night 2, the person he or she voted for on Day 1.

Unfortunately, I suspect that we will need an incredible stroke of fortune to bag the Bear during the first few Days. Still, we have a number of possible candidates for the other two Wolves. I outlined my top suspects earlier. I would particularly like to hear from Gil-Galad, Durelin and Laitaine.

Edit: Cross-posted with Gil-Galad. Correction - I would like to hear more from him.

[Gil-Galad]

Usually i hate decisons, but i was rather rushed and in my haste voted for Gurthang, when i read back later in the day, my suspiscon turned to Mithalwen, bu alas it was too late, she was already voted out and to my(and the rest of the village) she was a werewolf, also i didn't intentionally vote for Gurthang to tie up the votes for Mithalwen, as i said before, Gurthang seemed like the more likely culprit

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

Usually i hate decisons, but i was rather rushed and in my haste voted for Gurthang, when i read back later in the day, my suspiscon turned to Mithalwen, bu alas it was too late ...

Well there was nothing said after you voted that made Mithalwen seem any more or less supicious than she already was, save for the fact that the votes against her accumulated. The basis upon which I suspect most voted for her was already there before you voted. Do you mean that you did not read what had been said up to that point when you voted? If so, it would surely have been better to wait until you had a chance to do so before voting.

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

... also i didn't intentionally vote for Gurthang to tie up the votes for Mithalwen, as i said before, Gurthang seemed like the more likely culprit

Yet you posted the number of votes that had been cast up to that point when you voted, so you clearly knew that you would bring them to a tie.

I'm sorry, Gil, but I really don't buy your explanation. For the time being, you remain at the top of my suspect list.

[Gil-Galad]

Well to be honest, i really never read much of it, i just skim through and whichever seems more reasonable i go with...so most of my votes aren't really how i feel......now you don't know what to do

[Durelin]

My word! What a victory! One wolf down, only two more to go. Though we have that horrible Beorning to deal with...

And of course, I must be the suspicious one because I did not vote for Mithalwen. That's a bit much to assume, seeing as no one really knew that Mithalwen was a wolf. And I take quite the offense to that...I am decidedly feline, and not in the least bit canine. If I was trying to draw attention away from Mithalwen, I think I would've done a better job. But oh well.

Well, Saucepan Man's already done a good job with this, but I'm going to do some listing, too, just to put some things together.

Who voted for Mithalwen (in order):

CaptainofDespair
SamwiseGamgee
Meneltmarcil
Boromir88
Alcarillo - innocent
Nonnacedak
arcticstorm
dancing spawn
Saucepan Man
Firefoot

Who didn't vote for Mithalwen, not in order:

Durelin
Mormegil - innocent
Lalaith
Laitaine
Gurthang
Gil-Galad
lmp
Mithalwen - wolf

Who didn't vote at all:

Encaitare
wilwarin

The two remaining wolves have to be within the second group (excepting Mormegil) or third group, or within the tail end of the first group. The bear could be anywhere.

I really have no idea who could really be said to be suspicious. Let's see...

Durelin - Sorry, I'm innocent. Lynching me would be a complete waste of time.

Lalaith - Her (I hope I'm right) vote for Meneltmarcil was strange, I think. No stranger than my vote, certainly, but still, strange. Mormegil was the first to vote for him, and though we know him to be innocent now (sadly), it is strange that Lalaith followed this vote.

Laitaine - Interesting vote for Alcarillo, though no more suspicious than my vote, again. She was the only vote for Alcarillo, unless I am mistaken. Which may be the case, since it is quite early in the morning for me.

Gurthang - He drew some early suspicion, and then voted for me. Mithalwen was a wolf, and so I doubt he is one as well. His vote for me was justified, I think.

Gil-Galad - His vote for Gurthang was a little odd, but though it came later than other votes for Gurthang, it was still an early vote, and thus he had little to go on.

LMP - First to vote, and voted outright for Gurthang. It seems something got in the way of him being here to vote later. 'Tis understandable. Plus I doubt I wolf would be as stupid as to vote first...unless they're that smart...hmm.

Mithalwen - Well, she was a wolf. She also voted for Gurthang. LMP-Mithalwen-Gil-Galad...hmm...

Saucepan Man - He talks a lot, he likes making lists, and he voted for Mithalwen a little late in the precedings. Though that doesn't say much, since it's good to wait as late as you can to vote.

Firefoot - Voted last for Mithalwen, when she knew her fate was sealed. But, it's the same thing as with Saucepan Man. Late votes are good.

Encaitare - We've barely heard from her. This could be for a variety of reasons. We need to hear from her before I can really say anything. Same thing goes for Wilwarin.

What's scary is that the bear could be anywhere. The bear could be CaptainofDespair, or SamwiseGamgee, or Meneltmarcil, or Boromir88...it could be anyone. The first three, and perhaps the fourth could also be a wolf. Could. It could be that they did not expect Mithalwen to get many votes, and thus separated themselves from being seen in cahoots with her through voting for her.

We need to weed out the bear almost more than we do the wolves, since I don't think we can take two kills a night for very long. Though the bear may kill the wolves, the likelihood of this isn't on our side.

Sorry for the horrible length of that...

[Meneltarmacil]

Gil, thou verily didst not give muche of a reasone for thy decisione, all thou saidst was that thy reasons had already been stated by other people. As ye reasons given were only because of an in-character commente that had been misinterpreted (this had been mentioned by ye time thou posted), I suspecte thou hidest thy true reasone.

And my commente about ye guillotine was merely a bit of in-game joking arounde, Captain.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

Well to be honest, i really never read much of it, i just skim through and whichever seems more reasonable i go with...so most of my votes aren't really how i feel

Hmm, if you are a Wolf I would have expected a much more spirited defence than this. Funnily enough, your flimsy defence makes me suspect you less. But, for now, you remain within my sights.

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

......now you don't know what to do

Do any of us, really? The Wolves' knowledge is the most complete and yet there are gaps in that which we may be able to exploit to our profit.

Durelin, your long post confirms my suspicions of you. You say a lot, but you are not really 'saying' anything - well, nothing which has not been said already.

And I feel that we need to hear more from Encaitare, wilwarin538 and Laitaine. We have killed one loud Wolf. Perhaps the other two are more the silent type ...

[CaptainofDespair]

Originally Posted by Durelin

I really have no idea who could really be said to be suspicious. Let's see...

Durelin - Sorry, I'm innocent. Lynching me would be a complete waste of time.

Lalaith - Her (I hope I'm right) vote for Meneltmarcil was strange, I think. No stranger than my vote, certainly, but still, strange. Mormegil was the first to vote for him, and though we know him to be innocent now (sadly), it is strange that Lalaith followed this vote.

Laitaine - Interesting vote for Alcarillo, though no more suspicious than my vote, again. She was the only vote for Alcarillo, unless I am mistaken. Which may be the case, since it is quite early in the morning for me.

Gurthang - He drew some early suspicion, and then voted for me. Mithalwen was a wolf, and so I doubt he is one as well. His vote for me was justified, I think.

Gil-Galad - His vote for Gurthang was a little odd, but though it came later than other votes for Gurthang, it was still an early vote, and thus he had little to go on.

LMP - First to vote, and voted outright for Gurthang. It seems something got in the way of him being here to vote later. 'Tis understandable. Plus I doubt I wolf would be as stupid as to vote first...unless they're that smart...hmm.

Mithalwen - Well, she was a wolf. She also voted for Gurthang. LMP-Mithalwen-Gil-Galad...hmm...

Saucepan Man - He talks a lot, he likes making lists, and he voted for Mithalwen a little late in the precedings. Though that doesn't say much, since it's good to wait as late as you can to vote.

Firefoot - Voted last for Mithalwen, when she knew her fate was sealed. But, it's the same thing as with Saucepan Man. Late votes are good.

Encaitare - We've barely heard from her. This could be for a variety of reasons. We need to hear from her before I can really say anything. Same thing goes for Wilwarin.

What's scary is that the bear could be anywhere. The bear could be CaptainofDespair, or SamwiseGamgee, or Meneltmarcil, or Boromir88...it could be anyone. The first three, and perhaps the fourth could also be a wolf. Could. It could be that they did not expect Mithalwen to get many votes, and thus separated themselves from being seen in cahoots with her through voting for her.

We need to weed out the bear almost more than we do the wolves, since I don't think we can take two kills a night for very long. Though the bear may kill the wolves, the likelihood of this isn't on our side.

Sorry for the horrible length of that...

Me? A Bear? *gasps* What nonsense! I can assure you, on the honor of my shrews, that I am no such thing.

As for you, why not lynch you? Maybe you have something to hide? Are you a gifted? Hmm...Into the future I cannot see. Perhaps you can?

[Laitaine]

Friends, forgive me, I must leave, but I will be back soon
I must run errands this morning, and I’ll be back around noon
(EST)

[Durelin]

Durelin, your long post confirms my suspicions of you. You say a lot, but you are not really 'saying' anything - well, nothing which has not been said already.

Hehe...so, all I had to do was post a long post, and that's it, I'm a wolf? Wow... Considering you, Mr. Saucepan Man, have made rather long posts yourself.

And what's wrong with me not really saying anything? I'm trying to get everything sorted out in my head in my own way. I cannot attack anyone yet. There is too much time left in this Day to really do so.

[littlemanpoet]

Congratulations, fellow innocents, on nabbing a werewolf first time. I am happy that my early vote was instrumental in flushing her out (I will admit that I didn't plan on that kind of strategic use of it, but now I've learned something useful).

One of the last five people who voted for Mithalwen (by which point her fate seemed pretty much decided) is probably a werewolf.

Gurthang, you seem no more guilty to me now than any others here. As I said in my first post, it was a purely random vote. Glad I did it, though I'm apologetic that it was you.

I'm not going to bother defending myself but concentrate on attempting to flush out more werewolves, or the cobbler, or the werebear. If you want to vote for my lynching, that's your business.

My laryngitis is pretty much healed (in other words I have more internet access now).

Now to study previous posts.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Durelin

...so, all I had to do was post a long post, and that's it, I'm a wolf? Wow...

No, I suspected you already because you voted against the flow when votes were already beginning to stack up for Mithalwen and she was drawing closer to the noose. All you have said in defence of that is that, had you been trying to divert the voting from Mithalwen, you would have done a better job. I suspect that the remaining Wolves were trying to draw votes away from Mithalwen (one of them at least, and quite possibly both), but could not do a better job without being too obvious about it in the event that they failed (which, of course they did). So your explanation does not clear you in my eyes.

And you yourself have noted that Lalaith's vote was 'strange' and that Laitaine's vote was 'interesting' when, as you imply, they did much the same as you. Rest assured that those two remain on my Wolf suspect list for the same reason that you are there.

Originally Posted by Durelin

And what's wrong with me not really saying anything? I'm trying to get everything sorted out in my head in my own way. I cannot attack anyone yet. There is too much time left in this Day to really do so.

While I agree that it is far too early in the day to begin voting, it is not too early to begin discussing likely suspects. Otherwise, when the time comes to vote, we will all be shooting in the dark.

I have identified my suspects and my reasons for suspecting them. But the list is by no means cast in stone. I am willing to listen to all who speak. And I consider it to be the duty of all innocent Villagers to speak their mind and contribute towards the Village's cause. Anyone who does not do so will join my suspect list.

[Durelin]

I am willing to listen to all who speak. And I consider it to be the duty of all innocent Villagers to speak their mind and contribute towards the Village's cause. Anyone who does not do so will join my suspect list.

Alrighty then.

SaucepanMan, you are a wolf.
arcticstorm is the other wolf.
Firefoot is the werebear thing.

CaptainofDespair is a gifted innocent villager.
Lalaith is the Seer.
LMP is the Cobbler.

And just as a note, remember that cats don't wear shoes.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Catwoman (Durelin)

Plus I doubt I wolf would be as stupid as to vote first

So, are you confessing?

Originally Posted by Gil

Well to be honest, i really never read much of it, i just skim through and whichever seems more reasonable i go with...so most of my votes aren't really how i feel......now you don't know what to do

That was just the shakiest explanation I've seen. I'm toying with the idea that Gil is our Cobbler. He's acting quite suspiciously to me and his lamenting seems too exaggerative.

I'll post more later when I've reread everybody's posts.

[Gurthang]

Alas, poor Alcarillo and mormegil. We villagers have taken great loss, especially I think with mormegil, who I beleive was onto something. Alcarillo will also be missed, her ale was the best and helped me clear my head.

Durelin, I voted for you yesterday, for the very reason that Saucepan Man pointed out. You're still on my suspect list.

Meneltarmacil, I have become somewhat suspicious of you. Mormegil was the first of just two to vote for you, and now he's dead! That does bring suspicion onto you. I wouldn't think a wolf would be so obvious, yet what better place to hide than where a wolf wouldn't be? You're on my watch list, also.

Note: My watch list is not the same as my suspects list, so you're not in the spotlight yet, per se.

I think we should also look to Mormegil's supsect lists to see what we can find. If I've found everything, the list included Me(early on), Firefoot, Mithalwen and Articstorm(those three just to watch reactions), Alcarillo, and Meneltarmacil. WE know Mith was a wolf and that Alcarillo is innocent. That leaves Meneltarmacil, Firefoot, and Arcticstorm. Those three all voted for Mithalwen:

Meneltarmacil to put her in the lead to get lynched.
Arcticstorm was the vote one before her fate was sealed.
Firefoot after she had gotten a majority.

I would look especially at Firefoot and Arcticstorm, since Mith being lynched was already highly likely when Arcticstorm voted, and was already guaranteed when Firefoot voted. They have made my suspect lists.

Gil-Galad has also made me suspicious, for his vote for me and his flimsy reasoning. I'm watching him also.

EDIT: cross-posted with Durelin, Saucey, LMP, and dancing spawn. Durelin is acting even more odd.

[Durelin]

So, are you confessing?

No, just confusing.

That should be an 'a', of course...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Alrighty then.

SaucepanMan, you are a wolf.
arcticstorm is the other wolf.
Firefoot is the werebear thing.

CaptainofDespair is a gifted innocent villager.
Lalaith is the Seer.
LMP is the Cobbler.

Well, that's helpful. Thanks.

Reasons would be nice ... (though not for the Gifteds - let's not do the Lycanthropes' job for them, eh?)

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

I'm toying with the idea that Gil is our Cobbler. He's acting quite suspiciously to me and his lamenting seems too exaggerative.

I'm now thinking along the same lines and veering more towards Durelin as a (feline) lupine. And that's not just because of her random accusation of me. I have already stated my reasons for suspecting her.

[arcticstorm]

As of right now Laitaine is on the top of my suspect list toward the black beorning. She have beleived yesterday that she caught a wolf with Alcarillo and when the villagers didn't agree with her she decided to take the matter up into her own hands. It would be easier for the beorning to take the victory with the wolves out of the way. There would be no possiblity of her being killed at night, and with no partners, not much evidence would be able to be found. So I am guessing that last night she killed who she thought was a wolf. To pave the ground for her victory.
Those are my thoughts on the beorning, more to come later

[Durelin]

Reasons:
SaucepanMan and arcitcstorm both voted for Mithalwen when Mithalwen's death was sealed.

SaucepanMan says too much, and really has no idea what he's doing. arcticstorm says too little, and seems like he's trying to lay low a little too much.

Firefoot just doesn't feel right to me. Yep, that's all the reason I have. I don't know how else to catch the bear...considering they want pretty much everyone dead, eventually.

EDIT: Sorry, but it's time for my nap now. I'll have to sneak back later to vote and see if you all are going to lynch me.

[CaptainofDespair]

Originally Posted by arcticstorm

As of right now Laitaine is on the top of my suspect list toward the black beorning. She have beleived yesterday that she caught a wolf with Alcarillo and when the villagers didn't agree with her she decided to take the matter up into her own hands. It would be easier for the beorning to take the victory with the wolves out of the way. There would be no possiblity of her being killed at night, and with no partners, not much evidence would be able to be found. So I am guessing that last night she killed who she thought was a wolf. To pave the ground for her victory.
Those are my thoughts on the beorning, more to come later

Interesting theory, Arctic.

It does seem reasonable. My vote might possibly go towards her this day. I'd very much like to find a wolf. But since the wolves can only kill one a night, and there are two left, it might still be prudent to get the Bear done away with, so that we might only lose one this night.

However, you could be a wolf, trying to get rid of the competition.

So, my list of suspects now includes Laitaine, as the possible Black Beorning.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Meneltarmacil, I have become somewhat suspicious of you.

If Meneltarmacil is a Wolf, he is a bold one indeed to take such a significant role in a fellow Wolf's demise and then kill one of the Villagers who voted for him. Perhaps he felt that the seeming innocence arising from the former act would cover the latter one. But I believe that there are more likely candidates.

Originally Posted by arcticstorm

As of right now Laitaine is on the top of my suspect list toward the black beorning. She have beleived yesterday that she caught a wolf with Alcarillo and when the villagers didn't agree with her she decided to take the matter up into her own hands.

I agree that it is in the Bear's interests too to kill the Wolves. But surely, given his part in Mithalwen's lynching, Alcarillo was one of the less likely suspects for Werewolvery. And, as I said earlier, a Bear who kills the one who voted for them is either clumsy or very bold.

Originally Posted by Durelin

SaucepanMan and arcitcstorm both voted for Mithalwen when Mithalwen's death was sealed.

Agreed (although there was still a theoretical chance at least that someone else would be lynched when I indicated that I would probably be voting for her and when arcticstorm voted).

Originally Posted by Durelin

SaucepanMan says too much, and really has no idea what he's doing.

Saying too much is not a crime, provided that one is trying to help the Village by rooting out the beasts which beset us. That is what I have been endeavouring to do. What about you? It seems to me that your posts only serve to spread confusion.

Admittedly, I am pretty much shooting in the dark. But aren't we all? Except the Werewolves, who at least know who their foes are. And, if I really have no idea what I am doing, how come your first (long) post of the day pretty much followed the reasoning set out in my (long) post?

Originally Posted by Durelin

Firefoot just doesn't feel right to me.

Yes, Firefoot could be the Black Beorning. But so could just about anybody at the moment, unfortunately.

[Encaitare]

OOC statement: The reason I didn't vote was because I didn't realize voting would end so early (8 AM for me). The last game's voting ended around 12:30-1:00 PM, and I was used to that schedule. I'll try not to let it happen again, although it will mean I will always have to vote somewhat early.

-------------------

So some of you actually want me to talk now, do you? Is murder what it takes for you to want to talk to me? You're sick, all of you! O, would that my love were here...[/raving]

SaucepanMan says too much, and really has no idea what he's doing. arcticstorm says too little, and seems like he's trying to lay low a little too much.

Saucie could just be trying to help, as zealously as he does it. His lists are certainly in-depth. Arcticstorm has attracted a lot of suspicion:

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I would look especially at Firefoot and Arcticstorm, since Mith being lynched was already highly likely when Arcticstorm voted, and was already guaranteed when Firefoot voted. They have made my suspect lists.

Originally Posted by Durelin

arcticstorm is the other wolf.

But then there's also this:

However, arctictorm and Firefoot both voiced firm suspicions against Mithalwen earlier in the Day.

As for Laitaine, our little minstrel: I am not sure what made her suspect Alcarillio. The only thing he seemed to do was defend Gurthang, which could be suspicious -- but I do not believe that Gurthang is a wolf.

8. Boromir88 for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 4; Firefoot 1)

I think it's safe to say that Boromir is not a wolf, because he would not have tipped the scales towards voting for her -- before he voted, Gurthang and Mithalwen were tied.

I'll be skulking in the shadows over there until this evening, I think.

Edit: cross-posted with Saucie.

[Boromir88]

It was a good bag on Day 1, I credit a lot of it to luck and won't likely get another one tonight. But, there was also some good work done by a lot, and if we can keep together again, solve things through we may yet get another wolf (or even the bear).

I agree Saucepan that is it certainly the time to start deliberating and talking suspects.

Now my original suspicion going into the day was actually Alcarillo, alas I was sadly proven wrong. I say this because Mithalwen had accused myself and Gurthang of posting "early," but Alcarillo who posted before me did not get this accusation. (Post 16) Perhaps she was trying to protect a fellow wolf? And despite Alcarillo's vote for Mith, I still was suspicious (and still think a wolf is hiding there). Again, this was not so.

So, right now topping my list is Gil-Galad. I think it is conclusive to say that with gathering suspicion on Mithalwen, and prior votes towards Gurthang, Gil-Galad was hopefully trying to swing back some people to protect Mith.

So does that mean that the three wolves are working together (all voting for Gurthang)? I don't know about lmp, he doesn't seem to have made anything yet atleast.

Durelin, all Saucepan is doing is getting together who voted for who and trying to figure it out that way. Right now I think that's the best chance we got. Long posts and writing a lot doesn't make someone guilty I'm afraid.

I still think one of the other wolves is in the group who voted for Mithalwen:

Captain of Despair
Samwise
Meneltarmacil
Boromir
Alcarillo (obviously this isn't the case)
Nonnacedek
Dancing Spawn
Saucepan
Firefoot
Arcticstorm

Right now I have absolutely nothing to go off of, but I do have an idea on who to watch.

Now anyone could be the bear. Right now, since it is hard to see who is the bear it may be in the club who did not vote. (Wilawarin, and Durelin). As I look more closely at the posts I will get more onto who I believe the bear is. I still think the bear should be are main priority, since as long as the bear is around there will be two killings a night. But it would surely be hard to find the bear at this point, unless the Seer happens to pick one out in his/her dreams.

[Firefoot]

I don't care if you decide to lynch me. But don't lynch me because I was the last to vote; Day ends at 7 a.m. my time, so I have two choices: vote super early or super late. Personally I prefer late because it lets me see people's responses overnight. And I don't care to get up around 3 am just to get my vote in early. So you will probably be seeing a lot of later votes from me.

And, as some have pointed out, I was already suspicious of Mithalwen before I went to sleep; my vote was leaning that way anyway.

I'll be back shortly with something more substantial after I've reviewed the thread and thought a little bit more.

[Boromir88]

One I must make a few corrections in my previous post, the other I was also cross-posting with Encataire. One I had said...

Right now, since it is hard to see who is the bear it may be in the club who did not vote. (Wilawarin, and Durelin).

In my mistake it was actually Wilwarin and Encataire who did not vote. And now seeing this, I don't have much suspiscion towards either of them. My main susipiscion when making this post was actually towards Durelin who seems to be handing out roles to try to get some attention away from him.

I agree with Firefoot's statement....

And, as some have pointed out, I was already suspicious of Mithalwen before I went to sleep; my vote was leaning that way anyway.ement...

It was actually her post (post #41) that got me looking at Mithalwen and turning my suspiscion away from Gurthang.

And I am also faced with Firefoot's case, only for me it's better for me to vote earlier (which is about 11-12 pm my time) then get up at 7 am and vote.

[Meneltarmacil]

Meneltarmacil, I have become somewhat suspicious of you. Mormegil was the first of just two to vote for you, and now he's dead! That does bring suspicion onto you. I wouldn't think a wolf would be so obvious, yet what better place to hide than where a wolf wouldn't be? You're on my watch list, also.

Ye Saucepan Man hath already said what I woulde have said, so I am not going to argue with thee over thy notions. It seemeth people had been getting suspicious of me due to my supposed bandwagoning and ye Wolves may be taking advantage of this by killing Mormegil and casting more suspicione on me as a resulte. Lalaith jumped on Morm's suggestione, perhaps she coulde be a Wolfe.

[wilwarin538]

Originaly posted by The Saucepan Man
Durelin
Gil-Galad
Laitaine
Lalaith

Of these, I would say that Gil-Galad is particularly suspicious because he tried to switch the votes back on Gurthang just when they were beginning to gather for Mithalwen. With his vote, he brought it back to a tie between them. At the very least, he has a case to answer. I am also curious about Durelin’s seemingly random vote for Firefoot. She seemed very keen to divert the Village away from the ‘obvious’ suspects, one of whom we now know to have been a Wolf.

And we should not forget littlemanpoet who voted rashly yesterday for someone who I believe is not a Wolf, and who was mildly defended by Mithalwen.

I agree with most of that. The way Gil voted was very suspicious and his defense wasn't that great. I am also slightly suspicous of Durelin. LMP I am not altogether worried about, but I will keep my eyes on him. Regarding Laitaine and Lalaith, well I'll have to read their posts before commenting.

So right now my only real suspects are Gil-Galad and Durelin. Once I reread the two Ls' posts I will comment on them.

[wilwarin538]

Well, I have reread Laitaine and Lalaith's posts and I am now suspicious of them. Reasons are that both of them voted for people who eather didn't have any votes or only had one, it could be that they either suspected those people or wanted to distract attention from Mith. Also in post #68 Saucie made a list of people who had posted but had said very little. Out of those 8 people Lalaith chose to only defend one person, Laitaine.

So you have heard my oppinion, you may hear from me again within the next 2 hours but then after that you wont hear from me for a while. I will be able to vote today.

[Firefoot]

I had started out thinking that there was probably at least one wolf that had voted for Mithalwen. However, looking at those who voted for her later (I doubt anyone who voted for Mith early is a wolf, for reasons other people have already stated), I don't find myself particularly suspicious of any of them. I feel pretty comfortable with SpM and Arcticstorm, and Dancing Spawn seems pretty innocent to me. I might look twice at Nonnacedak, but I'm not overly suspicious.

So, the rest of villagers are:

LMP - I'm not too concerned about him. He had a valid reason for voting early, and based on what evidence we had at the time, Gurthang was a reasonable choice. He's not completely off my radar, but he's extremely peripheral.

Gil - He is acting very strangely, and his defenses are extremely weak, though I won't go into that too much since other people have pretty much said how I feel. Most confusing to me is his statement that his votes aren't usually how he feels. His vote for Gurthang certainly seems like an attempt to draw attention away from Mith. I have no idea what he is playing at, and his moves seem foolish for either a wolf or a villager.

Durelin - I'm not sure if I'm suspicious of her or not. First she votes for me for no apparent reason. Then she apparently doesn't have anything on me, saying "Late votes are good." Now she claims I'm the were-bear because I don't feel right to her. Um, sure. Besides, she claims Arcticstorm and SpM both are wolves, with both of whom I feel fairly safe. I can't tell if she is a confused innocent or a wolf trying to remove the spotlight to innocents.

Laitaine - I need to hear more from her before I decide anything. I'm only a little suspicious of her, mostly for her odd vote of Alcarillo.

Gurthang - I don't think he's a wolf because it would have been incredibly silly for Mithalwen to be the second person to vote for a fellow wolf when he is the only one with votes. Could be a bluff but I doubt it, as his posts don't seem terribly suspicious to me.

Lalaith - She has the feel of trying to get by under the radar. She hasn't really said a whole lot when she has posted. I don't really know how I feel about her.

Encaitare - I'd like to hear some more from her, though at this point I'm not overly suspicious. I would like to know who she finds suspicious.

Wilwa - I don't really know about her either. I'd like to hear more from her as well.

I've pretty well left the werebear out of my musings since I figure it could be anybody, even someone that I'm pretty comfortable with. I think we'll have to wait and see on that one, though Arctic's theory of Laitaine seems fairly credible to me.

Edit - cross-posting with Wilwa and Menel.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

WereMithalwen said yesterday: My initial instinct is that those who speak first may be eager for a reason. To get in quick with sorrow for the dead and to manipulate opinion.Four first persons to post were Gurthang, Alcarillo, Boromir and Mormegil, respectively. Morm is now proven innocent. Could this mean that the other three can be excused, too, from wolvery (is that a word)?


Nonnacedak has posted only twice. She/he (I'm so sorry, could someone please enlighten me concerning this matter) tried to separate her/himself from the culprits quite fiercely. By Nonnacedak: "I am surrounded by liars and I am but a humble trout fisherman." "Us innocents must filter through the lies to save our poor village!" Nonnacedak was the sixth person to vote Mith, though. I'm suspecting that s/he could be the bear.

But it's Gil who is my main suspect today. He posts very little. Yesterday he posted once to vote for Gurthang but he didn't even give reasons why. He said that his "reasons have already been said by other people". Who? Today he lamented the two deaths and posted two unbelievably flimsy explanations for his actions. Now, is he a wolf, cobbler or neither of those?

One thing that bothers me is Mith suspicions about Lmp being the Seer. She said it twice that she's quite sure about it yet the remaining wolves didn't kill him during the night. Is Lmp one of the wolves?

Random thought of the day: Imagine if Saucy is the bear. He's being so helpful in identifying the wolves. He even said himself: "I agree that it is in the Bear's interests too to kill the Wolves." He'll kill us all when we're not looking.

I see that Lalaith & Laitaine seem suspicious to a few of you. I ponder that theory a bit later.