Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Eomer, is it this line that bothers you?

"No real suspicion in any direction that would make his hands dirty." ~spawn #190

To me it looks that you mildly suspect someone, but then take you suspicions back, start asking others' opinions or start hesitating = no real suspicion. That's how it seems.


Where's Kath? She has quite a few posts to read if she intends to come back toDay.

[mormegil]

I'm finally back and caught up on all reading. Man there is a lot of talk going on!

Anyway I remain suspicious of LMP and may vote for him today, however Spawn brought up an excellent arguement against Eomer that has me thinking. I see the the Lhuna train is gaining steam and I'm inclined to view her as more suspicious now than a couple of hours ago.

Something about Anguirel still strikes me as odd though. Farael's arguement against Aiwendil is making some sense too, much more than yesterday's day arguement. Is it enough to sway my vote? Not yet but I would like to hear more tomorrow about it.

I think I will hold off on voting for a bit and see where things go because I'm inclined to vote for either Lhuna or LMP over others at this point.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm debating with myself whether to vote for Princess Lhuna or Eomer.

ToDay a few things in Lhuna's behaviour have seemed wolvish. She had these theories that there would be a connection between Anguirel and Glirdan or that Farael would be the Hunter. However, she says that her opinions shouldn't be taken too seriously. Maybe it was a joke that I didn't get, but that looked weird to me. Also, the thing that she didn't really answer Glirdan's questions about her vote worries me. The 'answers' she gave were presented in a joking manner, which directed the focus away from the fact that she really didn't give any answers. The problem is that that kind of acting belongs to her occupation...


The votes are:

Lhunardawen: 3
Anguirel: 1
Littlemanpoet: 2
Garin: 2
Aiwendil: 1
Boromir: 1

I don't want to put Lhuna that far up in the lead at this point, so I'll stick to my case against Eomer. Besides, as a priest he'll forgive me if I'm wrong, but I'd better not mess with a royal.

++Eomer of the Rohirrim

[mormegil]

I thought I could possibly wait longer but I fear I will be unable to.

++Lhuna

I'll give LMP the benefit of doubt and I agree Lhuna is acting strangely sane today

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm not really sure what dancing spawn is asking from me so I'll say this: I suspect everyone. That's right. There are three wolves in this village and they could be anyone for all I know.

Yes, I have suspected some people and then taken it back: It's a method called querying someone and then gauging reaction. Yes, I have asked other people's opinions: that's called interacting with the village. Yes, I have 'hesitated' (or whatever you want to call it): that's due to a lack of certainty, because I — like everyone else in this village — have no knowledge of the roles of other people. And yes, I have mildly suspected some people: I trust that most other people have mild suspicions too.

'Real suspicion' is apparently an unattainable ideal according to this lady. And I'm very confident I could insert the names of many other villagers in place of Eomer in her analysis and end up with a similar result. I hope to quiz you on that tomorrow, Spawn, because I think there's a bit of selectivity in your choice of target today.

Has anyone investigated you yet?

Good night.

[Aiwendil]

Okay, no chance of of lynching Formendacil toDAY, so my vote is for:

++Garin

. . . or should that be Gaurin?

[Boromir88]

Well I'm back a bit early which is a good thing, now I got all this reading to do. To kind of post on what I've skimmed through and I'll go back through for further insight...

I can't understand these gathering votes for Garin. I did remark that he has seemed rather unsure and "goes with the flow" but if that's his style (as this is my first game with him) then really I don't see a particular strong reason to suspect him.

I will make a compromise with Sauce and say it's likely a wolf voted for me or Gil-galad this includes:

Glirdan
Anguirel
Formendacil
Mormegil
Kath
Celuien
Garin
lmp

For a lack of substantial evidence I am going to take out Glirdan and Kath for today.

It appears Celuien, Formendacil, Anguirel, and Mormegil will avoid the noose today.

Leaving Garin and lmp. I am more confident in lmp's guilt then Garin's but I still find myself hard to pull that platform from underneath either of them. If I'm faced with having to decide between those two, I'll vote for lmp.

Lhuna isn't on the list, and I'll read through before I make a final decision on Tar-ancalime. But Lhuna or lmp will either get my vote today.

Now it's time to get some reading done!

[littlemanpoet]

I'm back from the silver smithy at last, and have all of page 5 plus to read before I vote. I may be skimming a bit.

I did notice that Lhuna voted for me, which at this juncture I find quite an interesting reaction to my suspicion of her. Trying to shut me up before I can get others to notice your wolfishness?

I still suspect Garin Boromir, but am less suspicious of Formy. Now to read.....

EDIT: My mistake, her vote came much earlier than my suspicion of her; I hadn't seen that post until just a few minutes ago. I have lots of catching up to do. Again.

[Kath]

Kath is here and I'm trying to catch up on toDay but I fear my participation will be rushed. I'll pop the reason on the other thread.

Would someone mind putting a list of votes so far up so I can see what's going on?

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

If that's serious, LMP, it's as cheap as the point morm scored against me a second ago, or against you about the silver knives! Be a tad more reasonable...

(from post #176)
Sorry to offend your sense of seriousness. At the risk of referring too specifically to a "past life", Lhuna's long list of innocents reminded me of my own doomed experiment in wolfishness those many many lives ago. That's all.

[Kath]

Sorry! Just found one.

Lhunardawen: 4
Anguirel: 1
Littlemanpoet: 2
Garin: 3
Aiwendil: 1
Boromir: 1
Eomer: 1

Woah! Lhuna? Be right back after I've looked at why on earth that would have come about.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Farael

The fact that Aiwendil rises LMP’s name so often and yet accuses him so little is making alarms sound all over the place.

Well, thank you for that. I almost missed this. That would indeed be a very clever wolfish ploy.

[Formendacil]

Allow me to offer some patronising advice to those who are interested: Never get sick. And, while you're at it, don't stay in bed for twelve hours. Because if you do, that's a LOT of Werewolf to catch up on...

I wish I had time to reply to more stuff that was written today. Lot's of interesting tidbits...

Alas, but it is ten minutes to the deadline, and I cannot. Just a short list of my suspicions, then.

Quite Suspicious: Aiwendil is the only person who leaps out at me today as being truly suspicious. To be honest, it very probably derives from his solid, continual declarations of my guilt. For that reason, I'm willing to offer him the benefit of the doubt, but to push so hard, consistently, for someone's guilt coming from Aiwendil seems to suggest some sort of knowledge other than a simple innocent would have. With the True Seer gone, that makes him either one of Three Werewolves or the False Seer. The statistics seem to point towards him being a Werewolf.

Near-certain Innocents: Eomer, Garin, Nilp- although I'm going to look pretty foolish if Garin gets the noose and turns hairy on us.

As for the rest, the fall into the Unsure/Slightly Suspicious Category...

With five minutes left before the cutoff, I must vote:

++ Aiwendil

[Boromir88]

What I find strange is from the suspicions for a lot of the day and the seeming agreeance that tar-ancalime would be a likely suspect...ummm she has no votes? This I truly find odd, though not really sure what to make of it. But I got the feeling today that tar-ancalime would be more likely hanged then Garin....hmmm what to make of this...

Celuien, Aiwendil and Tar have voted for Garin....Something I will certainly look at tomorrow.

Well, thank you for that. I almost missed this. That would indeed be a very clever wolfish ploy.~lmp

You need to do more careful reading I said the same thing as Formendacil this very morning.

To avoid mass cross-posting at the end, I will cast my vote now...

++lmp

[Garin]

Near-certain Innocents: Eomer, Garin, Nilp- although I'm going to look pretty foolish if Garin gets the noose and turns hairy on us.

You need not worry Formendacil.

[littlemanpoet]

Time's running out. I've read through post #186 and scanned the rest to see how the votes are going (last post scanned was #213.

My main suspects are at this time Lhuna, Garin, and now Aiwendil. If you don't like my intuitive way, sorry.

Boromir, Morm, and Formy of dropped somewhat.

The rest of you seem either innocent or I don't know yet.

Gotta vote, and I want to survive. Therefore:

++ Lhunardawen

Lhuna because of her stooopid list.
Garin seems guilty because of his both ends against the middle way, which some of you write off as in charater; I gotta go by what I know.
Aiwendil does seem to be bringing attention to me while not personally attacking; a very clever ploy that I would not put past a Wolf Aiwendil.

There you have it. Slim evidence, maybe, but you gotta go by what you believe you can trust. :shrug: Sorry if I'm wrong.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Boromir and Garin.

[Kath]

Well her first post toDAy was a bit "I'm so great" but then she is playing a princess!

Then a perfectly reasonable explanation for her quietness so far as I can see.

List of far-fetched theories:
Anguirel-Glirdan association due to Anguirel defending Glirdan.
Farael being the Hunter - haven't looked any where near hard enough to figure that.
LMP, Anguirel, Kath, Celuien, Garin and tar-a suspicious - with reasons so ok.

Advises the False Seer to remain hidden - I agree.

I guess she is being a little flippant, but I'm not sure if that's her usual playing style. Or whether it's due to her role.

So really apart from people perhaps being a little sensitive about some of her comments and way she's behaving I don't see much to be suspicious about.

But, with only 2 minutes before the deadline (and that's by my clock which is never right) I do have to vote.

I don't want to tie the voting, and it won't help Lhuna unless the one I vote for accumulates an extra vote. But in the hope that happens:

++

No, I can't. I haven't been involved and I won't vote randomly. Sorry.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Boromir

You need to do more careful reading I said the same thing as Formendacil this very morning.

Undoubtedly true. I'm having a hard time keeping up. Now to go back and read posts I only scanned for votes ... which I don't like doing but time was almost up.

[Shelob]

(The villagers are gathered in the square, they’ve been talking and arguing all day. For all that though no one has really lost their temper…yet…)

Saucepan Man: We’ve been talking all day, have we come to any conclusions?
Nilp: Yep, things still smell Fishy.
Glirdan: But nothing smells fishier than our dear Princess Lhuna.
Celuien: I don’t know, Garin’s smelling rather fishy himself.
Lhuna: Could you people find a new joke, I’m getting really sick of that one.
Eomer: Perhaps "Cod" will inspire them?
Boromir88: Come on people, do we have a majority?
Anguirel: (looking up from where he’s been tallying votes) We do, the majority goes to Lhuna. Looks like it’s time for us settle her account.
Lhuna: You too? Well fine, I’ve had enough of your bad puns and I don’t see why I should put up with it any longer.

(Lhuna goes to leave, she heads towards the river. The villagers watch her for a moment before heading after her. The scene switches from the central square to the river bank, Lhuna is nowhere in sight)

Nilp: (calling) Lhuna, where are you?
Dancing Spawn: (having spotted something in the river) Umm…
Formendacil: How now, sweet shepherd?
Dancing Spawn: One woe doth tread upon another's heel, So fast they follow; dear Lhuna’s drown'd.
Everyone Else: Drown'd! O, where?
Dancing Spawn: (pointing) You see that willow, growing aslant our brook? She must have tried to climb it, you can see where a branch broke…
Garin: But was she innocent? She still could have been a wolf…
Littlemanpoet: You think a werewolf would have fallen and drowned?
Mormegil: No, she was innocent…but it is strange that the one we’d chosen to die should suffer a fatal accident, there’s something strange about this village.
Tar-Ancalime: Fishy even.
Kath: I think I’ll have to agree with Lhuna on one thing though, there are too many bad puns surrounding this whole, hairy buisness

(The villagers disperse, after rescuing Lhuna’s corpse from the river of course. The valley darks, while the wolves and remaining Gifted prepare for another NIGHT of action.)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Nilpaurion Felagund
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Littlemanpoet
Kath
Garin
Anguirel
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime
Boromir88

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2

NIGHT 3 has begun, you know the spiel.

[Shelob]

(ToDAY we begin in the village bank, where the villagers are desperately searching for ANGUIREL.)

Boromir88: Anguirel, can you hear us?
Littlemanpoet: Come on man, call out.
Dancing Spawn: I don’t think we’ll find him, the wolves did a good job whatever they did.
Eomer: Without even a trace of his body, we’ll never be able to bury him properly…
Aiwendil: Has anyone looked in the safes yet?
Garin: Could anyone get them open?

(The villagers go take a closer look at the safes.)

Kath: This one isn’t closed all the way, we might be able to pry it open.
Formendacil: No, it’s stuck on something.
Mormegil: We won’t be able to open it.
Farael: Maybe you people can’t, but I’ve got Chemicals, stand aside.

(After many failed attempts Farael does manage to open the safe. Within it they find Anguirel, stuffed in and contorted and certainly not alive.)

Glirdan: Looks like we’re back where we were.
Tar: Only short another innocent.

(They leave the bank and it’s unfortunate banker, and return to the village square for another DAY of trying to find the wolves)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Nilpaurion Felagund
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Littlemanpoet
Kath
Garin
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime
Boromir88

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2
Anguirel (Ordinary)—Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3

DAY 3 Begins, yadda yadda yadda...and I’d like to apologise for this death but I woke up at 4.30 and had to leave, like, now. So the whole thing was written no more than 20 minutes, meaning it's not what I planned and I'm not happy with it, but it does what it needs to so I'm not going to complain (anymore).

[littlemanpoet]

I have been a bad sport and my own worst enemy, haunted apparently by the ghosts of my ancestors, one of whom was falsely accused by a Hunter, another of whom was falsely played by a Fool then lynched by that same Fool and his stooge Hunter. But those are old ghosts and do not apply to this generation, so even though that baggage has trammeled me up until toDay in this village, it shall no more. I set it aside.

I have wronged all of you and I am sorry. Sorry for having been so prickly just because I was wrongly suspected; sorry for having decided that it would be fun to be an obnoxious, offensive name calling virtual orc by way of self-defense; sorry for having haughtily decided in advance that because I am innocent, I don't owe explanations to anyone. I know better now: had I explained myself sooner and better, I would not have needlessly distracted you from the real quarry.

I do not expect anyone to believe me toDay, for I realize that I have squandered any trust or patience previously afforded me. I don't expect you to change your minds about me because of these words; I'm not quite that much of a fool. Havine received three votes yesterDay, and having been the second choice for lynching by at least three more of you, I am resigned to my likely fate, and will from this point onward, endeavor to mend my ways and be a help to the village rather than an attention diverting hindrance. Maybe my contribution toDay will be useful after I'm gone.

Thank you.

p.s.: I am sorry if this only adds more confusion to you, for I imagine that some of you are thinking that LMP has hereby done a flip-flop, and is even less to be trusted. Think what you must. I am prepared for the worst.

[Boromir88]

I think I'll be more of an observer today, that's something I need to get back to instead of being narrow minded and going after one person...(ahem lmp) which I take you are being sincere and if you are a wolf I deserve what's coming to me for being schnookered.

[The Saucepan Man]

Ahem! Did anyone notice that Lhuna was lynched and Ang just died? Perhaps we ought to be looking into what we can learn from that rather than wallowing in self-pity or withdrawing from the village!

Pah!

Here's the voting record:

1. Glirdan for Lhunardawen (Lhunardawen-1)
2. Nilpaurion Felagund for Anguirel (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1)
3. Lhunardawen for littlemanpoet (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1)
4. Celuin for Garin (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-1)
5. Tar-ancalime for Garin (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-2)
6. Farael for Aiwendil (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1)
7. Garin for Boromir88 (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1)
8. Eomer of the Rohirrim for Lhunardawen (Lhunardawen-2, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1)
9. Anguirel for Lhunardawen (Lhunardawen-3, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1)
10. The Saucepan Man for littlemanpoet (Lhunardawen-3, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-2, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1)
11. Dancing spawn of ungoliant for Eomer (Lhunardawen-3, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-2, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)
12. Mormegil for Lhunardawen (Lhunardawen-4, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-2, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)
13. Aiwendil for Garin (Lhunardawen-4, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-2, Garin-3, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)
14. Formendacil for Aiwendil (Lhunardawen-4, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-2, Garin-3, Aiwendil-2, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)
15. Boromir88 for littlemanpoet (Lhunardawen-4, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-3, Garin-3, Aiwendil-2, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)
16. littlemanpoet for Lhunardawen (Lhunardawen-5, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-3, Garin-3, Aiwendil-2, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)

Did not vote: Kath

Back shortly.

[mormegil]

Voting from yesterday

Glirdan for Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
Nilp for Anguirel (Lhuna 1, Ang 1)
Celuien for Garin (Lhuna 1, Ang 1, Garin 1)
Tar-a for Garin (Lhuna 1, Ang 1, Garin 2)
Farael for Aiwendil (Lhuna 1, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1)
Garin for Boromir (Lhuna 1, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1)
Eomer for Lhuna (Lhuna 2, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1)
Anguirel for Lhuna (Lhuna 3, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1)
SpM for LMP (Lhuna 3, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 1)
Spawn for Eomer (Lhuna 3, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 1, Eomer 1)
Mormegil for Lhuna (Lhuna 4, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 1, Eomer 1)
Aiwendil for Garin (Lhuna 4, Ang 1, Garin 3, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 1, Eomer 1)
Formendacil for Aiwendil (Lhuna 4, Ang 1, Garin 3, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 1, Eomer 1)
Boromir for LMP (Lhuna 4, Ang 1, Garin 3, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 2, Eomer 1)
LMP for Lhuna (Lhuna 5, Ang 1, Garin 3, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 2, Eomer 1)
Kath no vote (Lhuna 5, Ang 1, Garin 3, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 2, Eomer 1)

I don't have much time to analyze

I'm not sure what to make of Kath's vote. Noble and appropriate or an easy way out? I'm leaning towards noble and appropriate.

The Lhuna train looks interesting, though I am on it, it makes me wonder about Eomer mainly and to a lesser degree LMP.

About LMP I"m not sure what to make of him one minute I'm convinced he's guilty and the next I'm convinced he's innocent.

Edit: Cross posted almost the same info with SpM...thought I could beat him to it.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

... wallowing in self-pity ...

I refuse to take umbrage at this slight. It is not self-pity; you misunderstand. It is remorse. There is a difference, rest assured.

[Kath]

I'm not sure what to make of Kath's vote. Noble and appropriate or an easy way out? I'm leaning towards noble and appropriate.

Thank you morm. I decided it would be better not to vote as I had only had time to disagree with the lynching of Lhuna, I had not had time to analyse everyone and make a real judgement. Any vote I had made at that moment would have been random and more than likely based on feelings rather than evidence.

ToDay however I do at last have some real time to spend in this village! Expect a rather lengthy post from me tomorrow (RL) when I've had an opportunity to go through everything as thoroughly as I'd like to.

And thanks to lmp as well. Past grievances and general dislikes can lead to a lot of tension in a village and make the whole thing less fun. I think what you said was genuine, so thank you.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, first of all, I cannot help but comment on littlemanpoet's strange behaviour this morning.

Originally Posted by lmp

It is not self-pity; you misunderstand. It is remorse.

Bit dramatic, isn't it? Seemingly you are trying to appeal to the mercy of the village.

Originally Posted by lmp

p.s.: I am sorry if this only adds more confusion to you, for I imagine that some of you are thinking that LMP has hereby done a flip-flop, and is even less to be trusted. Think what you must. I am prepared for the worst.

Quite so. My very thoughts, even before I reached your little PS. You want to be helpful do you? Somehow I doubt that you will be. Because I believe that you are a Wolf. I suspected as much yesterday, and now I am pretty much convinced. I think that you are trying a change of tack because your previous modus operandi was sending off the wrong signals and almost got you lynched.

When I looked back over your contributions overnight, I noticed some very interesting things. Like this for example:

Originally Posted by lmp in #18

I have found that werewolves find it difficult to put on the act of innocence, and their guilt can often be read between the lines of what they say when they "suspect" others.

Originally Posted by lmp in #135

Sure I'm suspicious. I like being suspicious. As long as I don't get lynched it keeps me in the game longer. So suspect me to your heart's content.

You say that Wolves find it hard to put on an act of innocence, a statement which makes sense to me. And yet you seek to excuse your own seemingly suspicious behaviour. It's all just to try to stay in the game longer, you say. I think that, when you realised that you were coming under suspicion, you needed to think of an excuse to cover it.

There's more. A lot more, and I hope to come to it later today.

But before that, I think that it might be fruitful to consider why the Wolves killed Ang. He voiced few suspicions on Day 1, concentrating mainly on calling for Boro to be lynched. He was the first to vote for Boro, a vote which was generally not considered to be overly suspicious (although those which followed for Boro were). On Day 2, he maintained his suspicion of Boro, but then started looking at Lhuna and Nilp. He ended up voting for Lhuna who, as we know, was innocent. On Day 2, he was suspected by Lhuna and Nilp, who voted for him (Nilp, that is). Other than that, he does not seem to have come under much suspicion.

So, does that implicate Boro? Might it implicate Nilp? I am not so sure, because I remain fairly comfortable about both of them (although I don't like the sound of you sloping off to the sidelines Boro - your input is most certainly needed at this grave time). It could be an attempt to frame up one or both of them. Possibly an attempt to relieve the pressure on the others who voted for Boro on Day 1? Or it could be that Ang said something to alarm the Wolves. I will go and have a look back through his contributions.

I also intend looking into the Lhuna voters a bit more closely. Lmp was one of them and I think that he is the Wolf in that pack. There may be another one there, although I am not convinced as Lhuna did look rather suspicious to me. Worth a look nevertheless. It's probably worth looking at those who voted for Lhuna on Day 1 as well.

[Aiwendil]

Fellow villagers, I'm afraid we're not in great shape. With four innocents dead (including the Seer), I think that toDAY may be the DAY that makes or breaks the village. We need to get our act together, discuss things rationally, and, above all, lynch a wolf.

Despite the flak I took from some for offering questions as a way to prompt intelligent discussion on DAY 1, I will lay out the things I think we need to ponder toDAY.

First, was Lhuna's death an unfortunate accident or was it brought on by the wolves? I must admit that I had not been watching Lhuna as carefully as I perhaps should have. For myself, I'll have to go back and review her posts and the arguments against her. Of course, we should watch everyone who voted for Lhuna toDAY.

Second, why did the wolves kill Anguirel? I've looked fairly quickly back over his posts and I see no hints of Giftedness. I also don't see any obvious frame-up scheme, especially since Ang had voted for Lhuna. To be honest, the choice confuses me a bit, for surely Ang would have come under suspicion toDAY for his vote, had he not been killed.

I expect that LMP will come under close scrutiny toDAY. He's certainly one of my top suspects. His behaviour so far has been somewhat slippery. Now, I don't hold it against someone that he changes his mind. It's often the mark of considered, rational thought. But LMP seems to be changing his mind without reason. On DAY 1, he utters not one word against Boromir until the very end of the DAY, when he becomes fervently in favour of lynching him. On DAY 2, he explains that, though he did not tell us, he actually suspected Boromir before Ang did. Early on DAY 2, his suspects are Boromir, Mormegil, and Formendacil (see post 142). Note that at this point Lhuna is "maybe innocent" and I am "probably innocent". In post 208 he pivots, mentioning Lhuna as a suspect. And then suddenly in post 216, his chief suspects are Lhuna, Garin, and me. He's almost become the quantum villager: it's impossible to know both his suspicions and the speed at which those suspicions are changing at the same time.

Again, changing one's opinions is not in itself suspicious. And if LMP offered what seem to me to be rational explanations for these changes of opinion, I would probably not think them much cause for concern. But LMP does not offer much in that department. Rather, he justifies his opinions by saying that he is going with his gut and playing intuitively. Now if that isn't a great excuse for a wolf to ride the ever-changing currents of public opinion, I don't know what is.

So the big question in my mind toDAY is whether LMP is guilty. If he's a wolf, lynching him toDAY would be a major victory, as he's a cunning fellow. I also need to review my two top suspects from yesterDAY, Formendacil and Garin.

One other point that occurs to me: there is one villager who has so far been more or less exempt from suspicion. I speak of The Saucepan Man. Of course, he's seemed helpful. That's as one would expect. I suppose this is a question that inevitably comes up at about this point in the game, but why is he still alive? I think it would be wise to review his posts carefully.

[Garin]

Littlemanpoet's quick post after the poor Anguirel's death seems almost too egregious.

Could a wolf be so bold as to appear so apologetic and hence so guilty? He offers no explanation, just remorse. Yes, this could be a clumsy lupine ploy.

Which brings us to the feud between LmP and Boromir... I am not convinced that they are at odds with eachother. This again could be some wolvish tactic.

I was never was convinced at Lhuna's guilt, I mentioned voting for her on the first day to simply even up the votes but was seriously cross-posted. Nonetheless, I have voted for no proven innocents and so I willl post my personal list of fools...

Celuin
Tar-ancalime
Aiwendil

One of you is a wolf. I can nearly envision those night-time PMs. "Let's not kill Garin because he will manage to get himself lynched."

I think that, despite the early success of taking away our blessed True Seer, this will be a very quick game and the werewolves will soon be defeated.

[Garin]

Second, why did the wolves kill Anguirel? I've looked fairly quickly back over his posts and I see no hints of Giftedness. I also don't see any obvious frame-up scheme, especially since Ang had voted for Lhuna. To be honest, the choice confuses me a bit, for surely Ang would have come under suspicion toDAY for his vote, had he not been killed.

It is obvious that Boromir is a werewolf. This was a safe kill for them. Ang votes for one of them on day one but votes for an innocent on day two.

Also note that Boromir eased the pressure off of me on day two. If I had been lynched he could have vindicated himself.

I'm going to be consistent and start the voting....

++Boromir

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I didn't get very much from my review of Ang's contributions. I did notice one thing, though. It's not much, but it might provide some assistance.

He mildly defended Glirdan (#45) and Celuin (#52) early on in Day 1 and Garin on Day 2 (#173). Might the Wolves have thought that he was our Hunter or our Ranger, defending a fellow Gifted? If so, it would speak in favour of one or perhaps more of those three.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

So the big question in my mind toDAY is whether LMP is guilty.

I'm pretty sure that he is.

Originally Posted by Garin

Which brings us to the feud between LmP and Boromir... I am not convinced that they are at odds with eachother. This again could be some wolvish tactic.

I have not discounted that possibility. Lmp knew at the time that he voted for Boro that Boro was not going to be lynched. It is possible that he was casting a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. The problem is that I can see very little else to concern me about Boro. I think it more likely that lmp was casting a "safe throwaway" vote. One which would not result in the lynching of an innocent and thereby attract suspicion.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

One other point that occurs to me: there is one villager who has so far been more or less exempt from suspicion. I speak of The Saucepan Man. Of course, he's seemed helpful. That's as one would expect. I suppose this is a question that inevitably comes up at about this point in the game, but why is he still alive? I think it would be wise to review his posts carefully.

Here we go. I wondered when this would come up. Indeed, I could pretty much have guaranteed that it would become an issue if I made it to Day 3 without getting lynched or mauled. Obviously, I cannot say why the Wolves have chosen not to kill me. But I could ask the same question about a number of other villagers - including you, Master Cook. Perhaps they thought that Ang was Gifted. Or perhaps it's because some of my reasoning has been awry. I was very suspicious of Lhuna, and I was clearly wrong in that. My suspicions of Ang were growing yesterday. Perhaps there is a Wolf among those that I was considering likely to be innocent. I don't know. But feel free to review my contributions as closely as you like. I have nothing to hide.

Now, I'm off to look at the Lhuna voters, if you don't mind.

[Garin]

Obviously, I cannot say why the Wolves have chosen not to kill me.

Sauce, i can say that it is mostly out of respect and also that you are destined to be a wolf.
(past life speaking)

So, are you a wolf?

[Formendacil]

Terribly sorry if this is too brief or muddled... but it seems I've got strep throat, and my brain isn't working quite as efficiently as normal...

I can't make heads or tails of what LMP is saying today... I'll have to take the word of the village as authoritative in that he's a Werewolf...

Or not...

Ugh... Go ahead and lynch me. My brain hurts.

[tar-ancalime]

from Aiwendil, regarding lmp: He's almost become the quantum villager: it's impossible to know both his suspicions and the speed at which those suspicions are changing at the same time.

I spit out my coffee laughing when I read this!

But really, I think that lmp's posts today are much more troublesome than the windmill-tilting he's been doing for the past two days. They're finessed and careful in a way that he generally isn't. Unless this is just another quick change, soon to be forgotten.

I think we'll have to wait and see what the poet does for the rest of the day--he looks like an easy target now, but how will he look in 20 hours?

I don't think Anguirel's death points at anyone. I think that's the whole idea--the wolves have killed a smart, vocal villager (and there are plenty of both in this village) without leaving a real trail, because he wasn't embroiled in any of the strong dialogues of accusation and defense that have sprung up:

Farael and Aiwendil

Boromir88 and lmp (except that lmp changed his mind and voted for Lhuna....sigh)

dancing spawn and Eomer (from late in the day yesterday)

Anguirel's death doesn't disrupt any of these conversations, any or all of which might be smoke and mirrors. That's why the wolves killed him.

[Garin]

Fare thee well Form... I understand taking ill and I'm inclined to trust you. Wolves tend to be involved no matter what happens upon them.

I have some nutritious bread if you are so inclined. I suggest you vote quite hastily if you are in such an illness.

Vote now.

[Kath]

Why should he vote now Garin? That seems very rushed. He may be ill but that's not to say he won't come back later. Early votes are all very well and good if you're certain but Form is obviously not. And opinions may change throughout the Day depending on what has been said.

I just don't think making a snap decision based on illness is of any use.

[tar-ancalime]

I'm with Kath, Garin. Unless Formendacil has a truly wicked strain of strep, it sounds like a great excuse to hole up with a vast pot of tea, a quilt, and our village. Give the man a chance!

Not that I'm without sympathy--I know how wretched it can make you feel, especially at the beginning. It just seems to me that to demand an immediate vote is taking things a little too far.

[Garin]

Kath
The early votes are the most condemnable and I happened to make the first. I guess I wouldn't mind company.

Who knows?

I need to head out now.

I am confident with mine.

[Garin]

know how wretched it can make you feel, especially at the beginning. It just seems to me that to demand an immediate vote is taking things a little too far.

This is why I am constantly seen as a wolf. I was trying to show sympathy and also give advice. If our boy is an innocent- please vote- and then please get better. The last thing he needs to worry about is this game. Strep hurts and fevers hurt the brain.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Garin

Sauce, i can say that it is mostly out of respect and also that you are destined to be a wolf.
(past life speaking)

So, are you a wolf?

Actually, I rather think that I am ever destined to be an ordinary villager.

No. I am not a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Kath

I just don't think making a snap decision based on illness is of any use.

I agree. In fact, unless one is forced into them, I don't think that snap decisions, and especially snap votes, are particularly helpful at all. I am fairly sure that elempi is a Wolf. It is likely that my vote will go to him today. But I cannot be absolutely certain about him, and I am not going to vote until I have to.

Garin's early vote for Boro, with Boro having said very little and many villagers not having even spoken today, is of some concern. I did have him marked down as one of my probable innocents, but I may have to reevaluate that.