WWJ VIII ~ Things That Go "Quack" In The Night

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Um, I hope you do not intend to kill off one of our known innocents? Could we not better kill the non-Owl / Goose / Protector we all suspect the most?

.

Cailin I was saying why I thought the duck killed Lalaith last night. Not a suggestion for today!!!! Of course we (the village) shouldn't kill an known innocent. I realise the water's are muddied on that score for a lot of you.

Of the males I suspect Sleepy most. The ladies, I have stated... trouble is that some of you are too good to discount.

Even if I return, I cannot stay to the end. So I will vote as I can. For those in different zones wait and see Glirdan's take on this. Please don't waste your lynch on me.....

[Lote22]

I'm thinking Mith is probably a goose so I want to wait until Glirdan tells us who he dreamed of because that person could be a duck. I would rather vote for a duck than a goose. I think Mith is a goose because saying you are the owl so early in the game is to bold a move for a duck.

I'm leaving now but I'll be back in about 5 hours.

[Sleepy Ranger]

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...postcount=1155

I'm really sorry I have to do this and I hope nobody will be mad at me, I'd really hate to lose any friends due to this but things have gone terribly wrong! I'm sorry!

[Anguirel]

I don't believe Diamond would include such a heavy-handed secret as two Owls, Mith. Look at her rhyme-it mentions one Owl and one Secret.

If you ask me the secret is of an "Ooo that's clever Diamond!" variety rather than a "What in Hades have you done to this poor inoffensive village" variety. It is therefore unlikely to be two Owls. Perhaps Diamond could even confirm.

I still trust Mith though...I just think Glirdan is malevolent, but incompetent. Though surely not to the level of being the last Duck.

As a result I trust Nogrod as well as Sauce; well, I did anyway, actually. I'm disappointed that morm apparently remains unknown.

Of the quieter ones Jenny and Valier are both attracting my suspicion for the eagerness with which they jumped against Mith and for Glirdan, though obviously they're not both guilty...

EDIT: The one advantage of all these fleeing villagers-Roa and Sleepy-is that, knowing their innocence, (I assume Sleepy's innocent?) we can examine their attackers and defenders with extra information.

[Diamond18]

I can neither confirm nor deny anything.

Except that Sleepy is no longer in the game. I would post a more in-character departure for him than this, but I'm already late for work anyway. So you should consider Sleepy as no longer amongst you and I'll update the list at Day's end.

EDIT: Yes, Sleepy was innocent.

[Nogrod]

I agree with Ang that the scenario of two seer's (or one true, one false) would be quite drastic. Even though Diamond didn't confirm that query.

But think about this. If you come forwards with an Owl-claim on DAY2, you need two dreams too - and they should be right. Now as I know my ordoness in this game, I know she was right in one of the two - and I tend to believe her on Spm too. But how about Glirdy? He gave us a duck (it takes a duck to no another... ), but his other revealment? Spm, already revealed by Mith!!! That would be safe-play by a duck trying to look like an owl and to go to the end of the game (he cuold go on revealing anyone he likes from the point of Miths death onwards, because he is the only duck around - and we would just think Mith's ordoness being goosyness).

That's the only reasonable scenario I can come up with at present.

I'm having a busy day, but try to come in later on with more thoughts - if I get some...

And I'm so sad that Roa eventually decided to leave - and Sleepy too. And Cailin out for two days? Hmmmm...

[Anguirel]

Mith, I for one-regarding you as I do as the one, the true, the indivisible Owl-would really like to see who you proved innocent last night. With the help of that information, and the unknown Hawk's-who also knows, probably, who was guarded on the second Night-we could start really narrowing the pool of possible ducks. Depending on whether the Hawk believes in you and wants to make themself known, I suppose.

The point Nogrod has just made-that Glirdan conveniently "revealed" Sauce-is one I had thought of before as more evidence against him.

[JennyHallu]

Um...I have errands to run so not much time until later...but I wanted to say one brief thing in my defense: I came home from work yesterday (sick) to read 5 pages of confusion, and I totally missed that Glirdy dreamed of SPM too. Major oops there. So, Saucie, I'm sorry. You're innocent. I admit it.

Part of the reason I trust Glirdan over Mith was that confusion. I don't think enough people had voted for Mith for an Owly revelation to be necessary. And Glirdy felt like a breath of fresh air.

[Anguirel]

That's rather nonsensical. When Mith made her revelation, it wasn't really voting time yet, but opinion was definitely swinging against her. Had she not declared herself, two voting blocs, for her and for Spawn, would probably have developed. As it was, attention shifted to my, frankly rather bizarre, case against morm, who would surely have been lynched had it not been for Glirdan's appearance.

I and many others were considering voting for Mith, including Cailin, Sauce and naturally spawn. You ought to consider what might have happened as much as what did happen.

Sauce, since I now have no choice but to admit your innocence, as Glirdan is firmly a Goose in my mind, I am going to go back and investigate your famous "birdlime" plan...and try and see what on earth you were up to.

[Glirdan]

Well.....this is a shocking way to come in....Roa gone, Lalaith dead and Sleepy departing.....not good....and to top it all off (and this is going to get me into a LOT of trouble [don't kill me!! I had RL reasons for not doing it!!! ]) I didn't have a dream last Night.... (OCC - I came on briefly after school and then had to leave after that for the rest of the day. I didn't come back until after the Day started and before that, I had school and bed. I had no chance whatsoever(sp?) of getting my Dream in) I probably would have dreamed of Lalaith if I had the chance to and that would have been a wasted dream as well as putting me in a worse situation. This is not good......

Mith, after reading your posts, I'm quite bewildered. As Ang says, it's highly unlikely that our Moddess would have included something as drastic as another Seer....but, when I think about it, it's not entirely surprising.... and if it is true, well.... but we have no way of finding out now unless we dream of each other. But what's the point in that? If you aren't the Duck, and I most certainly know that I'm not the Duck, the real Duck is going to go after one of us toNight and, unfortunately for you and me, I have a feeling that he's going to go after you toNight which puts me in a bad spot tomorrow. But if he goes for me, then it puts you in a bad spot tomorrow unless you are guilty.

Ang, I have nothing at all to say to you. You confuse me. You really do. You were the one of the other people I was considering of dreaming about. It was either going to be yourself, Lalaith or Valier because I don't trust any of you. Lalaith would have been a useless dream as she is now dead. But now, I'm more convinced that you, along with SpM (proven either way by Mith or myself), Nogrod, morm (these two simply because of the way they're posting), Lote (because of her Day 1 vote) and a now departed Sleepy. But you still confuse me, even if I believe you innocent.

Nogrod, I was wondering when someone was going to come up with the revelation of SpM. And I knew when I revealed myself that it would put me in a bad spot once again. I knew of all the dangers that I was putting myself in when I revealed myself, yet I still did it. If I were a Duck, why would I be so stupid as to do something like this and get my fellow Duck killed? Especially when it probably wouldn't have been planned! Why would I betray a fellow Duck? I see no logic in this.

[mormegil]

If I were a Duck, why would I be so stupid as to do something like this and get my fellow Duck killed? Especially when it probably wouldn't have been planned! Why would I betray a fellow Duck? I see no logic in this.

Stupid? Nay, it would be superbly intelligent to do. It gives you credibility as our owl and if we were to kill Mith and all she would do is show up as an ordo, you would be thought of as our owl. Now that fact that you didn't have a dream last night is frightfully suspicious the only thing worse would be to say that you dreamt of Lal, but you took that even a step further and said that you would have dreamt of her. I find it dubious that you couldn't find 5 minutes with which to make your dream. You had a good plan but it unraveled by your idea to not dream. Still if he is the true owl I'd hate to do the duck's job for him/her.

Mith, of whom did you dream?

[Anguirel]

I think it might be helpful to summarise the politics involved before and after both Owl revelations.

Before Mith's revelation

For Mith

Mith herself
Morm, to a degree

Against Mith

Spawn
Me to a degree
Roa
Cailin to a degree
Kath to a degree
Sleepy
Sauce


After Mith's revelation

For Mith

Mith
Kath
Me
Cailin
Sauce, to a degree
Valier (Note that Valier suspected Spawn most at this stage...)
Nogrod
Lote...well you get the idea. No real need for an "Against Mith"


After Glirdan's revelation

For Glirdan

Glirdan
Valier
Nogrod, to a degree
Lote
Jenny

Against Glirdan

Kath
Lalaith
Sauce

There we go. Mith's declaration was necessary to save her, quite clearly. Equally, a large minority resisted Glirdan until dead Spawn threw us all into turmoil. Interesting.

[Glirdan]

I knew this was going to happen... but what could I have done? Come up with a complete lie and say I dreamed of someone? No, I'm not that kind of person. Besides, I'm pretty sure at least one person out there would have asked who I would have dreamed of. I was debating on who to Dream of. Yes, Lalaith was at the top of my list, but Valier was really high up there to. The only reason why I chose Lalaith is because of her past as is the case with Ang. Valier was actually pushing herself up on the list past Lalaith and when I think back on it, it was actually a tie of who I was going to dream of. Like I said morm, I knew the circumstances that could possibly arise when I revealed myself.

But yes, who did you dream of Mith? You failed to mention that when you first came on.

[Anguirel]

Glirdan, you don't seem to understand some of the rules changes in this game.

An Owl dream, a kill and a lynching alike lead to only two results-quite simply, Duck, and Innocent. So you "Owls" dreaming of each other is even more futile than usual, as if one of you is a Goose it won't show up.

Besides that, your dreams have been stunningly, stunningly convenient. An already established innocent. A widely suspected Duck. And now nothing and no-one at all, except a Lalaith that might have been, eh? How interesting that the Duck and the, er, Esteemed Reverend Professor Owl, both lighted on the same helpful, quiet, intelligent player. Not that by your account you ever got around to lighting on her.

EDIT: Regarding Mith's dream, she went no further than saying she'd dreamt of an innocent male, in no danger at the moment, whom she did not wish to implicate, it seems. Too discreet for Owlery I agree, but that's Mith for you. I earlier begged her to reveal it when she returns...

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I am not sure about revelaing my dream. sinceI didn't htink I had a hop of being believed I satisfied my own curiousity and found an innocent. They aren't widely suspected and if you don't give me a chance they are clearly safe today.

Later she said she didn't "know" anything about any of her fellow female villagers. This is rather a shame as all my main suspects are currently female. I do hope she didn't waste her dream on me.

[Glirdan]

Ang, I'm going to say this now and for everyone to hear and not care about the consequences: I have absolutely no patience to deal with you or this right now. I had a very bad week all week and now you come and say that I don't know how the game works! This is insulting!! Very insulting! So, if you want to lynch me, be my guest!! I really couldn't care less now that I've seen what you all think. Now, I'm going to go off and cool down because if I stay any longer, I will go balistic. I'll come back later. Good day!!

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Glirdan's revelation post-his proposed scenarios

1) You lynch me toDay and find out that I am in fact the Seer. You lynch spawn and she's proven the Duck. You then lynch Mith and she's provent to be the final Duck. Village win.

2) Same scenario with the exception that Mith is proven innocent or the Goose. There's still one Duck left.

3) You lynch spawn toDay, she's proven guilty. I dream of Mith toNight and (hopefully) shown that she's the final Duck. We lynch her tomorrow. Village win.

4) Same scenario with the exception that Mith is show to me as innocent or the Goose. Dream (not wholly) wasted. I dream a useless dream and get attacked the next Night. Still one Duck left.

I'm being truthful, and I'm sorry if that entails being disagreeable.

In scenario 1, we would not have discovered your Seership on lynching you.

In scenario 2, Mith would not be proven, on being lynched, to be a Goose.

Scenario 3 happened, but, so far as dreaming of Mith goes, you didn't actually dream at all.

In scenario 4, Mith again would not be shown as a Goose.

Your recent comment about dreaming of her seemed to confirm that you hadn't grasped the concept yet. I was trying to help...

Still, if you're really insulted, why don't you leave the village in protest? Seems to be a popular course of action at the moment...

Gentlemen and ladies of our esteemed quorum, I put it to you that what we are dealing with is a very confused Goose. How confused exactly we can't yet tell. I say we find the Duck and then this poor Goose can be given psychiatric help or eaten for Sunday lunch.

[The Saucepan Man]

Apologies to one and all for my late appearance. When I tried to make it to the village square earlier, I had problems getting here. And then I had to pop out to the shops to get something for the Orcling boy's birthday.

I had imagined, when the web-footed spawn was revealed in all her awful Duckishness, that things would be fairly straightforward today. I was all for lynching Mithalwen, for I thought her either a Duck or the Goose. But reviewing the Day's events thus far, and thinking more deeply on it, I see that it is not nearly so simple as that.

Last night, before we knew spawn's nature, my inclination was to trust Mith, for her Owlish revelation seemed far more credible than Glirdan's. Strangely enough, that remains the case. Mithalwen has seemed entirely reasonable today and at least dreamed of someone, even if she is unwilling to reveal their identity (Mith, I think that you should). Glirdan, on the other hand, is jumpy, defensive and sensitive, and he doesn't even have a dream to offer us.

One thing I am almost certain about, now. Neither of them is the remaining Duck. One is the Owl and the other, I am sure, is the Goose. So, were we to lynch either of them today, we would be none the wiser tomorrow. I think, therefore, that our best bet would be to look elsewhere today.

At present, I most distrust mormegil (who was looking to be in serious danger yesterday before Glirdan's "revelation") and JennyHallu (who was rather to eager to accept Glirdan and dis Mithalwen). But I will go back and review what has been said in more detail and come back, I hope, with some further thoughts.

[Anguirel]

Most sensible Sauce-and Goose Glirdan has unwittingly served our purposes. Since the Nightingale probably guarded him last night, they ought to be be free tonight to allow Mith another dream, should we all get things wrong today.

I am still awaiting Mith's information though and certainly hope to be armed with it before I vote.

[Valier]

I'm telling you all I am no Duck, so please don't waste a dream on me! I am surprised to hear the accusations about me today and it sucks that Glirdan was unable to get in a dream on time. I won't be around much today, but I will check in from time to time and I will definately vote. Please don't lynch me! I want to find the last Duck, but todays posts are again confusing! I will be back later....

[Anguirel]

You may not be a Duck, Valier, but you're definitely a turkey if you're still taken in by Glirdan...

Any further analysis coming up Saucie, or are you waiting on Mith like me?

[Valier]

Glirdan still may be a Duck in my opinion! Kinda convienient he didn't dream......Mith who did you dream of then?

[Kath]

Well, Glirdan is certainly mkaing himself look suspicious! Very defensive, and a missed dream? More than ever now I believe him to be the Goose, or at least a very misguided innocent. Thank you Ang for pointing out all those inconsistencies in his arguments, though I think perhaps that they are more likely to show him as an innocent than the Goose, as surely if he were the Goose he would understand the way the role works?

What does worry me though is the number of people popping in just to say 'I'm not a Duck so don't waste your lynch on me'. Those who do this are naturally suspect to me.

In fact, about the only people I think innocent right now are:
SPM - because whether Mith or Glirdan is the Owl he has been proved so.
Mith - because I believe her to be the Owl.
Ang - because he seems to be on the exact same wavelength as me.

Those I think suspicious are:
Glirdan - I think he is either the Goose or an innocent causing havoc.
morm - mostly due to Ang.

Mith, I would strongly urge you to reveal who you dreamt of, as we have a very low number of known innocents, and it is hard to makes plans for what to do in future days if we lose you toNight if we don't know who we can trust. However, your role your rules. We'll just have to live with it.

[Mithalwen]

I dreamed of Anguirel who is innocent. I started reading through the posts then RL time rather than game time caught up with me and I chose Ang since Morm had begged me not to dream of him. He seemed to understand and I had to be certain I could trust him if my part in the game went on. I had thought of Roa as you know but it seemed likely she was pulling out and I reckoned it would be a waste. I waited since I didn't want to expose him unnecessarily. It seemed that the innocent villagers would not believe me but the Duck would know I was telling the truth

[Mithalwen]

Note re timing.

It has been clear from get go when I can post. I am sure that has played into some people's hands. We have seen the consequences of not voting.

It was pretty late for me when I "came out" and as I said the Pan Man's clear suspicion was the clincher. Be honest with yourselves and see if you really htink you wouldn't have followed his lead had I gone without speaking? You had wasted nearly 2 days on me - if SpM and Spawn had started a bandwagon , I really doubt many would have gone against it.


Glirdan is looking very dodgy now to me.

[Anguirel]

Ah. That's what I feared you'd done. Well, that means my options aren't helped that much more. Well done though Mith, this new correct claim further butresses the truth in your words.

I'll be back for some serious deduction after I've revised a few Horace poems-the Classics seem to be a useful occupation from a birdcatcher wishing to tell an Owl from a Duck! Within that time, with any luck, the Hawk will come forward with whatever they know.

[Anguirel]

Before I leave, a quick summary for you all of what I think/we know of the remaining players-

Anguirel-Innocent
Mithalwen-Owl
Saucepan Man-Innocent
Mormegil-I'm inclined to think he's innocent, despite everything. Unknown
Valier-Unknown; I suspect her slightly
Nogrod-Innocent
Kath-Unknown; I suspect her very little but she's kept on my good side for some reason
Cailín-Unknown; I suspect her quite strongly
Glirdan-Goose
Lote22-Very likely innocent, but officially Unknown
JennyHallu-Extremely suspicious; Unknown

[Mithalwen]

I am not saying that a second owl is the secret, but you have to remember that like poor Lucy in The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, I have the advantage of knowing I am telling hte truth about myself.

If you reflect you will seen that though I am a rather erratic, and eccentric character I have behaved consistently with what I say I am. It doesn't mean I am right about things I don't know..... but what I know I have been truthful about. And now I am turning into Donald Rumsfeld....."The known knowns etc"

[Mithalwen]

I have to say that I think that Lalaith would have been an exceedingly odd Owl choice. She never gave me any reason to think her anything other than innocent.

[mormegil]

I tend to think that Mith is indeed the owl. Why? Because her jumpy behavior before her proclamation and her calmness after. This is consistent with my knowledge of her character. I believe goose Glirdan hurt the ducks more than helped. He not only told us of a real duck but he probably received protection last night thus freeing up protection tonight for Mith.

[Glirdan]

Well, everything is still flying around. God, you know what, I give up with you people!! It's absolutely impossible for me to get through to you! Like I said, you want to lynch me, be me guest!!!! I'm over this!! You want to loose your Owl, go right ahead. I completely give up with all of you. Nogrod, Lote, Valier you three are probably the only three I really have any faith in now. I'm not leaving though. That would just be the quitters way out and I'm not a quitter. Oh, Ang, before you go attacking those who drop out, have you ever even stopped to consider that they have problems going on? Did you? I'm sorry for being the way I normally am and being defensive! I thought by now that all of you would have gotten used to this! But noooo!! Be my guest and lynch me. You'll all be sorry when you do. Now, I will stay, and I know this seems very kiddish, but I have no patience for any of you (with the exception of Valier, Nogrod and Lote), but I will only talk to those three. I'm not having a good week. And be careful of what you say. I'm in a VERY vindictive mood right now.

[Mithalwen]

How can an owl not manage to dream? Glirdan was online til at least an hour before the dead line when Spawn's fate was already sealed. If he had any doubts about not getting on line, surely he could have left a provisional request with Diamond? IE"If you don't hear from me before such and such a time I will choose X? ".

Having modded myself twice I am sure I would have accepted such an arrangement......
but of course that kind of thing is part of the Divine Right of Moderators and they have ultimate discretion..

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

but I will only talk to those three. I'm not having a good week. And be careful of what you say. I'm in a VERY vindictive mood right now.

If that is how it is going to be - I would rather Diamond pulled the game. This is ridiculous. There is a limit to what I will put up with and I have to say it has got close a number of times.

[Nogrod]

I'm coming more and more convinced about my earlier speculation about Glirdy as a liar. Now an ordo would not lie, in that manner? So a goose (tumbling one) or a duck (stupid one)? I'd go for the first option, knowing he is an intelligent guy.

Ang has seemed very reasonable today - as has Spm. And all this is going to gather some clouds over Morm. I have had my suspicions on him after his list on Nilp-vote on, and can't see them to have disappeared for now. So if we are after a duck, we should look at him as one of the candidates. His begging for Mith a to not "waste" her dream on him seem to me especially noteworthy. It could be seen as an altruistic villager saying "don't bother for me", but it could also be duckish indeed... as no duck would want to be dreamed of.

EDIT: X-posted with a bunch of people...

[Nogrod]

Glirdan: don't overheat, please. This is a game...

Your anguish would be noted with more subtler expressions too. I will have to think this one again one more time (I don't think I will change my mind though, but we'll see), but really, cool down...

[Nogrod]

Triple posting...

I agree with Mith: Lalaith seemed to me a very strange "wannabee" dream - as it seemed a very strange kill too! Are these things related? Might be...

[Glirdan]

It's to late Nogrod. I've had it! I'm stressed due to RL reasons and all of this is just making me feel even more stressed. Maybe I should let my pride go and just drop out...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

It's to late Nogrod. I've had it! I'm stressed due to RL reasons and all of this is just making me feel even more stressed. Maybe I should let my pride go and just drop out...

C'mon, man...

[Mithalwen]

Glirdan -


I of all people understand RL issues and the game getting too much. But I think you should really try to continue in the circumstances. Unless it is life and death in RL

[Glirdan]

I never said I wanted to, but by the looks of things, it would make everything else easier for me and for everyone in the game. I don't know what to do right now...I just need to think this through....