Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Well, at least we don't have to worry about Eomer anymore. I'm sorta sad that he's gone because he can be a huge asset, but really, we would have spent the rest of his existance arguing about him. If you ask me, the wolves almost did us a favor. Almost.

You speak utter balderdash, Mister Plankmeister. Eomer did nothing to attract suspicion yesterday, as far as I can see. The votes for him were either petty grudge votes or those of the fiends that trouble us. We would not, or at least should not, have been arguing about him, had he survived the Night.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Oh, as per our vocal agreement yesterday I claim the slaves as my own!

Nonsense. They are the property of a deceased subject of the King of Scots. As His Grace's representative on board, I am now the receiver of his slain vassal's property. The Law of Scotland is on my side, sir.

I do not wish to be sucked into a duel with you, master nitpicker, but it seems to me you are seeing a chain of events that fit in your eyes because they pertain to you. I was considering your case yesterday on what I confessed was the sketchiest of grounds, and I am now prepared to dismiss my thoughts as pretty balderdashworthy in light of later information.

And I am somewhat insulted by your implication that I would be so clumsy a wolf as to intervene, guns blazing, because a throwaway vote in wolf-Glirdan's direction...

Now, to the slain Scot's words of yesterday. (And his slaves. Mine, all mine.)

[Caranlondien]

I can think of several reasons the wolves killed Eomer. There's what Fin said - that they might have thought Eomer to be the Hunter. Or maybe they thought he was the Seer. Another possibility is that they thought the Seer might dream of him. Finally, they might have just wanted to get rid of a good player who wasn't on their side.

Typically, the wolves are looking for the Seer right now. So there might be some stock in looking at what Eomer said yesterDay that might have made the wolves think he was the Seer. We all know it's overwhelmingly unlikely that the Seer will dream of a wolf on Night 1, but for some reason the wolves often seem to forget that and think they've found him/her already. Still, if one or more of the wolves is an experienced player, I find it unlikely that they would have made such a mistake.

Overall, I'd rather focus on the voting record. There isn't much of one now, but at least the wolves have given us the information that both our top suspects yesterDay were innocent.

I'll re-read yesterDay's happenings and see if I can come up with some suspects...

EDIT: cross-posted with everything since Form's last post

EDIT2: changed "Ranger" to "Hunter" - thanks for pointing out the mistake

[Lalaith]

A few possible reasons for his untimely death. Possibly one of those who held a grudge against him. Possibly they thought him a Gifted (and so what he said yesterday will bear examination). Possibly the Wolves just felt that they couldn't take the risk of leaving an innocent Eomer running about on board

I can't think the wolves would be so silly as to allow a grudge to motivate them. I have already mentioned the Gifted (Seer) theory. As for the risk of an innocent Eomer, there are many such on board, including your good self, Sir Horatio, if you are innocent.
I still hold, I think, mainly to the Gifted theory. Although I have thought of another. The wolves may have seen the slaying of Eomer as a waste of a Seer Dream - Eomer would surely be an early dream candidate, would he not?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if at least one Wolf, probably the one who suggested to the other wolves that they kill Eomer, was one of the voters for him yesterday...

That was my initial thought. Yet, perhaps Eomer was killed because there wasn't a Wolf among those who voted for him and they saw a major opportunity to frame one or two of them, given the pettiness and unreasoned nature of the votes.

As I recall, Gurthang was oiling the wheels of the Eomer bandwaggon early on, yet ended up not voting for him.

I am pretty much convinced, though, that there was at least one Wolf in the Nilp bandwaggon.

You make a good point concerning Anguirel, Mister Mormegil, although I am not sure that it merits such an early vote without further consideration.

Much to ponder. I'll be back later, although possibly not until much later, depending upon whether or not I fall into a fitful sleep while watching the villainous politicians on the wondrous box of visions.

Toodle pip.

[Lalaith]

Above cross-posted with Caran and Ang - oh and Caran, you mean Hunter, not Ranger, don't you....(I'm taking over the nit-picking role, sorry)

[JennyHallu]

I am going to take the risk of having a little personal satisfaction.

I TOLD YOU SO!

And Form, don't bother me with your comments about following your lead on Lalaith. Count the votes: yours for Lalaith is what doomed Nilp and Eomer. For that reason, you are at the top of my suspect list.

Second on the list are, tied, Gurthang and Firefoot for vote placement and general suspiciousness.

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by SpM

Some suspicious looking votes there. I don't like any of the votes for Nilp (excepting his own and, possibly, that of Anguirel who appeared to have been trying to save Eomer). I am particularly wary of those cast by Firefoot and Holbytlass, both of whom effectively escalated it into a choice between Eomer and Nilp, two innocents...And I still suspect Holby on the basis of my reasoning from yesterday.

Rear Admiral, based on votes I don't see how Anguirel by appearing to have been trying to save Eomer does not gain your suspicions, but I who broke the tye in Eomer's favor looks suspicious.

I understand your reasoning based on my trying to be helpful and that I can't help. I was trying to gleen any sort "solid" theroies to work and everyone knows how hard that is on first day. Hindsight, I shouldn't have tried so hard.

As I said, I get where you were coming from but the person I find kind of scary is JennyHalu. She was very flip-flopish in her righteous anger of blasting everyone.

Originally Posted by Jenny

I'm very unsure of whom to vote for. I am absolutely against both the Eomer and Nilp bandwagons, as I don't see enough reason to vote for either of them right now. Both bandwagons seem fishy to me, and tomorrow I shall be taking a very close look at who's on them.

Originally Posted by JH

++Holby

If all those who have yet to vote join us, we can save both Nilp and Eomer!

hate bandwagons but don't mind starting one.

Originally Posted by JH

Day 1 is the dumbest excuse for carelessness ever. Gah! Day 1s can be productive if you use them productively and don't just tralalalally your way into a whirlpool.

Sheesh, she follows SpM's lead because I was being productive

I'm not saying she is necessarily on my suspect list right now but I seem to be in trouble for what some demand.

[Diamond18]

Man, the pontificating coming from Potboiler's corner is a bit much, even for him. Of course, can't say I disagree with him from a purely cold hard logic standpoint (especially about Nilp) but really -- fine, I was being petty, if you like. Get over it.


YesterDay was a mass of banter, nonsense, and in character fun, so at the time I had to vote there wasn't much else to do besides make a blind vote. Call it a grudge if you will, but there are a lot worse people to vote blindly for on Day 1 than Eomer, who is a proven fiend. Besides, 'grudge' is a bit harsh since I never said I didn't like the chap. On the contrary, I am positively filled with warm fuzzies. Lynch votes mean you're loved. (Which reminds me -- *blows Gurthang a kiss*). If someday people badwaggon against me because they fear my vast cunning I'll be... who am I kidding, I'll be dreaming. Or possibly having an out of body experience. (I've been able to acheive various bandwaggons for various other reasons, but never for so flattering a reason.)

I find it HIGHLY amusing and not the least bit ironic that the Nilp bandwaggon was formed mainly just to save Eomer. "Let's not kill Eomer, he could be useful and he might be Gifted. Nilp couldn't possibly be either of those things!" (Quote not attributed to anyone but my general impression of the lynch outcome, applied with a dash of sarcasm, for flavor.)

Anywho -- I wish I could say that I've poured over Day 1s events and have analysis & theories & charts & suspects & non-suspects, and all that Day 2 fun to offer. But I haven't so I can't. I also wish I could say that I have slept in the past 32 hours, but I can't really say that either without using a very liberal definition of the word. So--

*thump* Weslamond passes out and falls to the deck, where she snores for the next... oh god I don't know. If I actually manage to think of anything besidse "Grunt, ha, er, mmfh," when I read the posts in this game, I'll get back to you.

Oh wait! I forgot, I did think of something. Eomer was obviously killed because the wolves are petty. Which means that the wolves are Lhuna, Me, Rune, and tgwbs! Oh, and Taliesen is my Lover. There, I think that accounts for all the Eomer voters nicely, don't you?

[JennyHallu]

Holby, my apologies for my attempted bandwagon against you. I just needed to try and save Nilp, and thought Eomer likely also innocent: and I picked you because I found your logic concerning myself suspect. It didn't work, anyway.

[mormegil]

Holby brought up another good point against Anguirel, though she didn't say as much but I infered it. He did try to 'save' Eomer by killing Nilp. While killing an innocent Nilp is suspicious it's not as suspcious, in my mind, as killing an innocent Eomer who looked incredibly innocent to me as opposed to Nilp who you cannot read on Day 1. Anyway what better placement for himself than to be there and then off him at night.

[Glirdan]

Now, I know that some of you are going to ask me what the madness is for me to be doing this again, but tis necessary. You shall all see the plot behind the madness shortly. Now, let's take a look at the voting list from yesterDay:

1. Morm-->Glirdan (Glirdan-1)
2. Lhuna-->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-1)
3. Rune-->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2)
4. Glirdan-->Kath (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1)
5. Nilp-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
6. TGWBS-->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
7. Durelin-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-2)
8. Diamond-->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-2)
9. Anguirel-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3)
10. Lalaith-->Form (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1)
11. Caranlondien-->Jenny (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1, Jenny-1)
12. Firefoot-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1)
13. SpM-->Holby (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1)
14. Holby-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1)
15. JennyHallu-->Holbytlass (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2)
16. Formendacil-->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-1)
17. Findeasea-->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2)
18. Gurthang-->Diamond (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
19. Eomer-->Glirdan (Glirdan-2, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
20. Taliesin-->Eomer (Glirdan-2, Eomer-5, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)

No vote: Kath

Of those:

Lhuna, Rune, TGWBS, Di and Taliesin all voted for Eomer.

Durelin, Ang, Firefoot and Holby (this does not include his vote for himself) all voted Nilp.

Now, considering yesterDay was Day 1 and Nilp was acting like usual and those four just wanted that annoyance gone, I really doubt that those who voted for Nilp have any true reason for voting for him and because of it, I think we shouldn't look at them toDay. However, I am not saying that we erase them from our minds either. I think the best plan of action for those four is we put it off until tomorrow and see what their vote is for toDay.

I think our main concern should be for those who have voted for Eomer because it's quite likely that of those five, at least one, or maybe even two, of them could be a Wolf.

So, to start off, I think I shall take a look at our dearest newcomer, Taliesin first. Be back shortly with analysis.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Although I can sertanly see the point Holbytlass makes about Jenny, I am inclined to belive Jenny when she says.

Originally Posted by Jenny

Holby, my apologies for my attempted bandwagon against you. I just needed to try and save Nilp, and thought Eomer likely also innocent

But I am not sure about anything.
It just seems plausible that someone talks against bandwagoning and then when they see two persons, One wich is just acting like he always does and one whom they find likely to be inoccent; is about to get lynched. That they then in desparation will try to get a person they are uncertain about killed instead and thereby start a bandwaggon.

I hope you understand what I just said. . .

I am not going to clear Jenny just yet, but I don't think that exact thing was that wolfish. . . But let me sleep on it.

[mormegil]

Thank you Glirdan, you have furthered my suspicion of you as well.

"Let's not focus on those who voted Nilp" ie. Ang.

We can look at him later.

Ha, how utterly transparent.

You're next!

[Glirdan]

Taliesin

Occupation - criminal who was set adrift

Post #18 - Check in post. Suggests (as a joke) of killing off Glirdan because he drank all the booze.

- Nothing remotely interesting or worthy of suspicion.

Post #39 - Comes back and says "Just got out of my cabin and you're already shouting about this werewolf thing again eh?" Suggests that we don't jump to conclusions about his past and suggests (not out loud) to look at the pirates instead. Thinks we should leave the slave driver alone. Finds that Mr. Rear-Admiral Horatio Potboiler makes him uneasy.

- The only thing I find odd is how much he kids around, but I don't find that suspicious either because it was a Day 1 and he was probably trying to act in character.

Post #42 Thinks that a more pressing matter is deciding on who gets our belated Captain's Cabin.

- I find that rather inconsiderate that he would even think it a more pressing matter than finding these Wolves. But perhaps it was all in fun.

Post #83 Finally decides it's time to get serious. Doesn't want to follow Eomer bandwaggon simply because of occupation. Finds that Saucy is the loudest and most helpful villager around but isn't comfortable being on his list of Doom but doesn't want to trust him completely due to memory telling him so. Wants to give Nilp benefit of the doubt. Quotes and replies to Findëasëa's post #78 (clarifying the role of the Lovers).

- Again, nothing really usefull to point any suspicion.

Post #102 Comes back. Says he doesn't see anything that makes him suspcious. Finds that Jenny defending Eomer is slightly suspicious, possibly a Wolf defending a Wolf. Votes Eomer.

- Okay, this is the most suspicious part of all his posts. He really contradicts himself in his post #83 where he says he doesn't want to follow the Eomer bandwaggon. That makes him highly suspicious in my mind. Another thing that gets me is how much he jokes around until this point. I'm definetly going to keep an eye on him.

Next up is a new return and an old favorite, Rune.

Crossed with morm and Rune.

Morm, I'm not saying that they are not utterly suspicious, quite the contrary. They have not been erased from my mind, they are still suspicious in my eyes and will remain that way. I just want to get through those who voted Eomer first because they have more reason to go after Eomer at night. If anything, I will probably do an analysis of those who voted for Nilp after the Eomer voters.

[Glirdan]

Rune

Occupation - Slave who is obssessed with cheese.

Post #17 Basic check in post. Thinks it would be nice if they could be milked in order to make cheese.

- Nothing suspicious here. Unless it's the fact that he wants them to be furry, cute and milkable...

Post #26 Quotes and responds to Kath's post #16. Plots with Kath to kill the slave driver.

- Again, nothing remotely suspicious unless it's the "plot" which Kath and himself have come up with.

Post #38 Comes up with a poem about cheese. Isn't sure that he likes Horato Parboiled. Quotes and responds to Lhuna's post #37 (her reasoning for voting Eomer). Agrees with her and votes Eomer. Gives his reasoning for voting (evil slave driver and not giving him cheese). Explains his early vote.

- And once again, nothing suspicious. His vote is not entirely random, however, it was still a Day 1. I don't like how he purposely bandwaggoned however. That makes him look slightly suspicious.
So, out of the two analysed thus far, here are my suspicions in order:

Taliesin
Rune

Next on the analysis list is actually one who was mentioned earlier in this post, Lhuna.

Crossed with Gurth.

Right now, I'm surprised by Glirdan's sudden 'hyper-analysing' mood. He does bring up a few good points about Taliesin.(Gurth)

What can I say? I'm in an analysing mood!

[Gurthang]

morm, still as bloodthirsty as ever, I see.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Day 1, Gurthang.... Nilp has almost ALWAYS done it.... if he hadn't this time, us veterans would wonder if he's a wolf... and lynch him anyway...

Not always, actually. I think that one game he was the Seer, a junior game I believe, and he decided to not go suicidal. Strangely enough, he was not jumped on for it.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Eomer did nothing to attract suspicion yesterday, as far as I can see. The votes for him were either petty grudge votes or those of the fiends that trouble us. We would not, or at least should not, have been arguing about him, had he survived the Night.

I agree; he was not acting overly suspicious. In fact, most of the votes he got were before he showed up. But my point is that Eomer, by simply being himself with his reputation, will always draw suspicion. He's known for his mind and for his striking ability to appear innocent when evil. These attributes make everyone wary when he's alive. Hence suspecting and 'arguing'. Arguing probably isn't the best word, but I think you know what I mean.

Right now, I'm surprised by Glirdan's sudden 'hyper-analysing' mood. He does bring up a few good points about Taliesin.

Anyway, I'm late, so... yeah, bye.

[Firefoot]

I have to read closer before really responding, but I'd like to say this about my vote for Nilp:

Yeah, it pretty much was senseless. Just about any vote I made was going to be so. I really didn't see much reason to suspect anybody at that point. Nilp seemed as good a person as any to cast a vote for.

[Glirdan]

Lhuna

Occupation - Seasick reluctant traveler

Post #37 Believes Firefoot and Gurthang are the Lovers. Says that her (implying Firefoot is the Wolf) fellow Wolves are Fin, Taleisin and Friderich Engels (or, TGWBS). However, she goes and votes for Eomer because everyone wants to get rid of him.

- This is probably the oddest post I have read all Day but it doesn't surprise me. The only thing that's odd is her vote for Eomer which was completely baseless. Other than that, nothing truly suspicious about her. I'm also noticing a pattern with all of these voters: none of them have posted that often. I think the most amount of posts from one of the Eomer voters thus far on Day 1 is 5 made by Taleisin. Something to keep in mind.

Next analysis is for somebody Lhuna has accused, Engels.

Crossed with Firefoot.

[Glirdan]

Engels

Post #63 Finds Nogrod and Cailin's murders justified. Thinks Men and Wolves should live in harmony. Calls upon Kath and Rune to aid him in his quest to off Eomer.

- The only thing that bugs me here is him wanting to live in harmony with the Wolves. They're murderous beings who will murder even the purest soul. Why would you even think that way?

So, before I get into my next analysis (which will be of Di), I will give my suspicions lis:

Taliesin
Engels
Rune
Lhuna

[Caranlondien]

Well, first off, I'm inclined to trust Jenny and SpM (hmm, I always suspect SpM and he turns out to be innocent; does that mean this time he's guilty?)

Gurthang is making me a little nervous... He just seems sort of careful. Glirdan's sudden analysis-spree seems a little unusual for him, so he's on my radar, too.

morm certainly seems, er, certain in his accusations against Anguirel. Such a strong attack seems like it would be a risky move for a wolf, but I do think that morm is the sort who might try to pull off a huge bluff. I can't say his case against Anguirel is all that convincing.

[Findëasëa]

I was looking over some of the later votes yesterDay. Jenny’s actions worry me. At the time that she cast her vote for Holby and asked the rest of the village to vote for her in order to save Nilp and Eomer, the only way to save either was if all of the villagers yet to vote voted for another candidate who had already gotten one vote. After Form voted for someone else, she jumped on him, and placed the blame for the death in his hands. I have seen similar situations before, but usually the person who is doing the accusing has a lot more to go on, or a gifted has been revealed. She admitted herself that she did not really know who to vote for, but then she ardently defended two people, who are today, both proven innocent. This does seem bold, but I don’t think that we should all dismiss it as innocent without taking a closer look, as the situation, no matter the turnout, would have made Jenny look good.

edit: cross posted with Caran

[Glirdan]

Diamond

Occupation - Weslamond, the Dread Pirate Roberta's protégé

Post #9 Can't believe there are Wolves on the ship. Says we already know Eomer is guilty and we should off him.

- You know, isn't it a routine that the first person who posts is normally guilty? And the fact that she was (technically) the starter of the Eomer bandwaggon, it doesn't sit well with me either.

Post #13 Still thinks we should gang up ont Eomer and off him.

- Okay, this makes me like her less and less.

Post #29 Quotes and responds to Saucy's post #21 and says that he must not have heard of the Dread Pirate Roberta and other in character nonsense.

- Nothing here to point more towards her suspicions.

Post #31 Quotes and responds to Saucy once again and says it's okay but still doesn't trust him. Thinks that anyone who thinks we should keep Eomer is up to no good.

- Okay, I'm starting to think that maybe Diamond isn't as suspicious as I first thought. She's being very consistent of her suspicions and her reasoning (for a Day 1) is actually fairly reasonable.

Post #70 Corrects morm. Finds that the rivlary that the ninja's created without the help of the pirates odd. Votes Eomer because of his role in a so called "Duelling Wizards Game" ( )

- And this is where she gets suspicious again. No true reasoning behind her vote where as before her accusations were not all that bad.

After that analysis, my list of suspicions (out of these five) is:

Taliesin
Engels
TGWBS
Rune
Lhuna

I don't really have time to do an analysis of the Nilp voters so if someone wants to go ahead and do it, be my guest. For now, this is my list. I must depart and look for rum. I'm going nuts without it!!

Crossed with Caran.

Gurthang is making me a little nervous... He just seems sort of careful. Glirdan's sudden analysis-spree seems a little unusual for him, so he's on my radar, too.(Caran)

If I may point something out, I normally do analyses. However, my ancestors of late haven't been able to as they have been very busy. This is the first time that anybody in my blood line has had the chance to do one, so I grabbed the opportunity. In other words, expect them from me as them game progresses.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

You know, isn't it a routine that the first person who posts is normally guilty?

Hm. Actually, that is an interesting question. It's long been common belief that wolves post early in the game, if not first, but I'm not sure what the facts are. The only game in which I actually remember off the top of my head who posted first was my own Wereducks game. As I recall, Glirdan, you were the first to post.

And were you guilty?

[Firefoot]

I find Morm's so early vote for Ang incredibly interesting. I have little doubt that if he is proved right he will be killed for the seer, and if he is wrong, the wolves are probably laughing with glee. He makes a good argument; it's the vote that interests me.

Dang, I am coming up with nothing at all. I've been staring at these posts for the past 40 minutes now and seeing nothing. Maybe I'm just too tired right now to do this properly.

[Glirdan]

Hm. Actually, that is an interesting question. It's long been common belief that wolves post early in the game, if not first, but I'm not sure what the facts are. The only game in which I actually remember off the top of my head who posted first was my own Wereducks game. As I recall, Glirdan, you were the first to post.

And were you guilty?(Di)

No, you're right, we can't rely on myths. However, that still doesn't make you less suspicicous.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

If I may point something out, I normally do analyses. However, my ancestors of late haven't been able to as they have been very busy. This is the first time that anybody in my blood line has had the chance to do one, so I grabbed the opportunity. In other words, expect them from me as them game progresses.

Okay, good point. As I have a limited history in werewolf, I'll trust you on that one. Still, you're not cleared of suspicion. You've now been downgraded to "Just as suspicious-looking as everyone else"

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Dang, I am coming up with nothing at all. I've been staring at these posts for the past 40 minutes now and seeing nothing. Maybe I'm just too tired right now to do this properly.

Ditto. I think I'll go get some sleep... For lack of more information, I'm most wary of morm and Gurthang right now. Diamond seems to have (initially) over-reacted a bit to SpM's suspicions, but given my most recent ancestor's behavior, I'm not one to talk

So, I have those suspicions, but I hope I'll come up with some better ideas tomorrow (RL).

[Glirdan]

Okay, good point. As I have a limited history in werewolf, I'll trust you on that one. Still, you're not cleared of suspicion. You've now been downgraded to "Just as suspicious-looking as everyone else"(Caran)

And I wouldn't have it any other way.

I must depart for a few hours and calm down. This rum lackage (that's not even a word...) is really starting to get to me. I shall see everyone later in the Day.

[JennyHallu]

Originally Posted by Findëasëa

I was looking over some of the later votes yesterDay. Jenny’s actions worry me. At the time that she cast her vote for Holby and asked the rest of the village to vote for her in order to save Nilp and Eomer, the only way to save either was if all of the villagers yet to vote voted for another candidate who had already gotten one vote. After Form voted for someone else, she jumped on him, and placed the blame for the death in his hands. I have seen similar situations before, but usually the person who is doing the accusing has a lot more to go on, or a gifted has been revealed. She admitted herself that she did not really know who to vote for, but then she ardently defended two people, who are today, both proven innocent. This does seem bold, but I don’t think that we should all dismiss it as innocent without taking a closer look, as the situation, no matter the turnout, would have made Jenny look good.

edit: cross posted with Caran

Apparently, looking good makes me look bad.

Why did I put blame on Form? Because he deliberately said he thought neither Eomer nor Nilp were guilty, then made the vote that made saving them impossible.

[Diamond18]

TiG I
First to post: Fea
Role: Ordo

TiG II
First to post: Fordim Hedgethistle
Role: Ordo

TiG III
First to post: tgwbs
Role: Ordo

TiG IV
First to post: Fea
Role: Hunter

TiG V
First to post: tgwbs
Role: Ordo

TiG VI
First to post: Eomer
Role: Ordo

TiG VII
First to post: mormegil
Role: Cursed Villager (thought self Ordo at the time)

TiG VIII
First to post: Gurthang
Role: Black Beorning

TiG IX
First to post: mormegil
Role: Shirriff

TiG X
First to post: The Perky Ent
Role: Seer

TiG XI
First to post: The Perky Ent
Role: Ranger

TiG XII
First to post: mormegil
Role: Ordo

TiG XIII
First to post: Anguirel
Role: Ordo

TiG XIV
First to post: WaynetheGoblin
Role: Ordo

TiG XV
First to post: mormegil
Role: Ordo

TiG XVI
First to post: Gurthang
Role: Ordo

TiG XVII
First to post: Gil-Galad
Role: Ordo

TIG XVIII
First to post: Anguirel
Role: Ordo

TiG IX
First to post: Lhuna
Role: Werewolf Lover

TiG XX
First to post: Nogrod
Role: Ordo

TiG XXI
First to post: Loki
Role: Ordo

TiG XXII
First to post: Fea
Role: Ordo

TIG XXIII
First to post: Diamond
Role: Ordo

WWJ I
First to post: Bergil
Role: Werewolf

WWJ II
First to post: WaynetheGoblin
Role: Ordo

WWJ III
First to post: Lommy
Role: Werewolf

WWJ IV
First to post: Firefoot
Role: Ordo

WWJ V
First to post: Anguirel
Role: Ordo

WWJ VI
First to post: Boromir88
Role: Seer

WWJ VII
First to post: Kath
Role: Ranger

WWJ VIII
First to post: Glirdan
Role: Seer

WWJ IX
First to post: the phantom
Role: Ordo

--

So, a rundown of this list:

Ordinary villagers have posted first 20 out of 32 times
Werewolves have posted first 4 out of 32 times
Seers have posted first 3 out of 32 times
Rangers have posted first 2 out of 32 times
A Hunter has posted first 1 out of 32 times
A Black Beorning has posted first 1 out of 32 times
A Cursed Villager has posted first 1 out of 32 times
A Lover (also Werewolf) has posted first 1 out of 32 times

So, the vast majority of the time an Ordo is a first to post. Not all that surprising, is it? After all, Ordos alway outnumber everyone else. But, most importantly, this rather decries that whole myth that Wolves often post first.

If I wanted to be really thourough I could track the posting order of everyone out of all the games, to see how often one or more wolves are in the first, say, 10 posters. But I'm not actually as insane as I look. At the moment, anyway. Because that would probably yield some very interesting numbers.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

If I may point something out, I normally do analyses. However, my ancestors of late haven't been able to as they have been very busy. This is the first time that anybody in my blood line has had the chance to do one, so I grabbed the opportunity. In other words, expect them from me as them game progresses.

Sorry mate, but I've been in a lot of games with you and I don't remember you being ever quite this verbose. Admittedly I haven't gone back to check and my memory could be jaded by your recent rash of inactivity but I would disagree and think Caran a bit naive to blindly believe you. Your response was interesting too.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

And I wouldn't have it any other way

Why? Because you don't want somebody to go back and actually learn the truth?

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I find Morm's so early vote for Ang incredibly interesting. I have little doubt that if he is proved right he will be killed for the seer, and if he is wrong, the wolves are probably laughing with glee. He makes a good argument; it's the vote that interests me.

I could also be the lover and not the seer, but alas I am neither but I guess that is for the wolves to decide.

Now just by gut feelings here is how I feel about everybody.

Durelin--Innocent
Caran--Innocent
Holby--Possibly guilty
Fin--Innocent
Lhuna--Possibly guilty
Kath--Innocent
Jenny--Possibly guilty
Lalaith--Innocent
Diamond--Innocent but an interesting list...where do you get the time?
Firefoot--Guilty
Gurthang--Hunter
Formendacil--Guilty
Rune--Innocent
Taliesin--Innocent
SpM--Probably guilty but unsure
Anguirel--Guilty
Glirdan Guilty
TGWBS--unsure.


The bolded two are the ones I'm more certain of than others.
The bolded ones are the ones I feel more certain about.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I find Morm's so early vote for Ang incredibly interesting. I have little doubt that if he is proved right he will be killed for the seer, and if he is wrong, the wolves are probably laughing with glee. He makes a good argument; it's the vote that interests me.

This is a good point. And I remember him voting rather early yesterday for Glirdan. His sudden drilling of Ang is strange in my mind. It seems almost overly bold for a wolf (except it's morm) and I don't think that a seer would do what he's doing. Especially since he's been all against Anguirel toDay, and has redoubled his insistance on Glirdan from yesterday. The sheer odds of the seer nailing two wolves on the first two Days is so close to impossible that it makes no difference. I don't think he'd be so gung ho for one person unless he's the seer, but it doesn't make any sense that he'd be pushing for two like he is.

Some one, or a couple of you guys, are bringing up some good thoughts about Formendacil. I might take a look at him if I get time.

I don't like this stuff against Jenny. From what I've seen, she'd do about the same thing I would. She tried to save Nilp and Eomer yesterday. By the time I arrived, it was a little late to save either, but her actions don't seem wolvish to me.

morm, interesting list. Although, I'm confused by the last two lines.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

morm, interesting list. Although, I'm confused by the last two lines.

I won't edit it but it was a mistake. I think I typed it and made a quick change as to who I thought suspcious and typed it again.

Sorry.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by someone who looks like morm...

Kath--Innocent

Who are you and what have you done with our morm?

Diamond--Innocent but an interesting list...where do you get the time?

Well... simply put... I don't have to work tonight. *shrug*

Though actually it was very simple and quick as far as lists go. All I had to do was read the Grimoire and click on the links to glance at who posted first after the mods. Rinse and repeat and you have your list in a relatively quick hour. It's the snack food to a player or game analysis three course meal.

I have to say, off the top of my head I can't remember Glirdan being much for player analysis, either. However, I haven't played here till fairly recently (gaming history only dates back to March) so maybe I ought to look back a bit.... I will say, in his favor, that they are very nice analyses. But then, I am rather partial to a nicely formatted analysis with links.

[Anguirel]

[Here's what I was typing last night when the network shut down suddenly-surprisingly, it's still quite relevant.]

Eomer's suspicions-

tgwbs and Rune for bandwaggoning votes. Suspected "couple of furry secrets" in the movement against him, though specifically exonerated Diamond.

Noted that the Nilp bandwagon was also a good lupine hiding place.

Highly suspected Glirdan and Caran for low-level sneakery and throwaway votes (indeed spent some time deliriously murmuring "Glirdan or Caran, Caran or Glirdan...", poor chap. Maybe they were his last words.)

Thought Gurthang was "silly".

Apparently thought Nilp innocent or at least did not vote for him, even to save his skin. (Similarly didn't feel comfortable about going for Lalaith.)

I'm not sure this is as helpful as I was hoping. Maybe the wolves thought they'd spotted a dreamed innocent, not an uncovered wolf, in his words. Apparent Giftedness of some kind seems to be the most rational explanation-could they even have been hoping to bag a Hunter and take down two innocents? Yet his links with Nilp weren't substantial. He didn't help Nilp's lynching but neither did he condemn it.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

Why did I put blame on Form? Because he deliberately said he thought neither Eomer nor Nilp were guilty, then made the vote that made saving them impossible.

Not saying that I'm blameless... although in my defence I don't recall having a recent voting tally handy when I voted, so other than a vague idea of who the two main victims were, I don't remember knowing the tally at all.

And anyway... just because I didn't think Eomer or Nilp guilty doesn't mean that I didnt' concede the possibility that they might have been. Nilp's one time as a wolf (when he did the whole same spiel) sucked me right in- though I was an observer, that time. Eomer has a track record which should never been ignored, so it seems...

So while I didn't think them guilty, I can't say that I was convinced of their innocence. Whereas I was, and still am, rather sure of Holby's innocence. Not beyond trace of doubt, of course, but more than I was of Eomer or Nilp.

Now, to pass on to things other than defending myself... there are a number of well-reasoned cases out there that intrigue me: Morm's case for Ang, the case for Diamond, the case for Jenny... They can't all be right, surely... but one of them, at least, being right... well, I'd give it good odds.

[The Saucepan Man]

I have been pondering further the Wolves’ choice of victim last Night. Although I do not discount the possibility of grudges playing a role, given how absurdly prominent this concept has been so far aboard this vessel, I rather agree with Lalaith that the Wolves are unlikely to be motivated by grudges alone. I also agree with Lalaith that, while an innocent Eomer presented a formidable foe to the Wolves, there are others who they might also consider dangerous and who were distinctly less likely to attract votes today.

Did the Wolves think Eomer likely to be a Gifted? Possibly, but I can see little in what he said to give them such an impression. His suspicions (primarily Glirdan and Caran) were not strongly stated and there was, as Ang has noted, no particular link with Nilp.

So, I am led to the belief that Eomer was killed to create a certain amount of confusion and perhaps to lead us in the wrong direction. If so, I am inclined to think that those he viewed as suspicious are in fact more likely than not innocent. I am also reinforced in my tentative view that there may not have been a Wolf among the Eomer voters. Even if there is a Wolf there, it’s likely only one at most. In this regard, I would view Lhuna and Diamond as the most likely candidates, given that Eomer said that he was inclined towards thinking them innocent. Of the two, Diamond currently looks the more suspicious to me.

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Rear Admiral, based on votes I don't see how Anguirel by appearing to have been trying to save Eomer does not gain your suspicions, but I who broke the tye in Eomer's favor looks suspicious.

I understand your reasoning based on my trying to be helpful and that I can't help. I was trying to gleen any sort "solid" theroies to work and everyone knows how hard that is on first day. Hindsight, I shouldn't have tried so hard.

Assuming him innocent (and I remain inclined to that view), I fully understood what Anguirel was trying to achieve when he voted for Nilp in an effort to save Eomer. Not knowing Nilp’s Giftedness, I rather agreed that an innocent Eomer was likely to prove more helpful to us than an innocent Nilp. That’s not to clear Ang completely, but, in my view, his vote does not count against him as much as others in the Nilp bandwaggon. Your vote, for example, which had the effect of escalating further the two-horse race developing between Eomer and Nilp, a race which served only the Wolves’ interests, without the redeeming factor of credible reasoning.

And rather than being helpful and productive, my impression was that you were attempting to involve yourself in the discussion without saying anything too controversial. Notably, your analyses followed my categorisation of you as a possible “fly under the radar” Wolf, and, despite looking helpful on the face of it, they didn't appear really to say that much. My impression of you has not changed.

The other Nilp voter that I find particularly suspicious is Firefoot. Like Holby, she too encouraged the Eomer/Nilp two-horse race, by putting Nilp on 4 votes, level with Eomer. Her reasoning for voting for Nilp was lazy. Just the kind of reasoning that a Wolf would use on Day 1 against an easy lynch target. And she has said and done little to aid the passengers’ cause since.

In other news, Gurthang continues to trouble me. This Corinthians reference, for example. I could understand it if he had explained it by saying that it was merely part of the “banter”. But he actually tried to explain it by categorising it as some kind of device to catch people out. To achieve what, exactly? Were you hoping that one of the Lovers might come forward and refute your apparent claim? You say that you were looking for reactions, but it was bound to attract some sort of reaction, and most likely the kind of reaction that most of us who discussed it gave. So I really don’t see what it was designed to achieve. Then there is the early encouragement of the developing Eomer bandwagon. Despite your subsequent (unconvincing) attempts to explain your logic here, it remains weak. Yes, a Wolvish Eomer is dangerous. But an innocent Eomer could have been extremely helpful to us. His intelligence is no reason to eliminate him early. Au contraire, it is a reason to keep him around, at least until there is some kind of evidence pointing to his possible Wolfishness. There was none. And then, despite your early encouragement of the Eomer bandwagon, you end up placing your vote for Diamond. By this time, Nilp was all but condemned, so it was a great time for a Wolf to place a “safe” vote, perhaps even a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Turning to Glirdan’s analyses, I have known him to indulge in these in the past. Personally, I don’t find analyses such as this particularly helpful, and they can be used by Wolves to appear helpful while saying little of use. And I find some of Glirdan’s analysis rather wide of the mark. His case against Taliesin, for example, I find entirely unconvincing, since there was ample reason for Taliesin credibly to change his mind and decide to vote for Eomer after all, given what had occurred in the intervening period (more teling, perhaps, is the fact that Taliesin's vote had no effect on the outcome, and so might be regarded as a safe Wolfish vote). He is concerned over TGWBS’ expressed desire that Men and Wolves should live in harmony, yet this was clearly part of the “in character” banter. And he finds Diamond’s early case against Eomer consistent and well-reasoned, despite the fact that it was based purely on past history and Eomer had not even posted at that point. Yet I don’t think it likely that Glirdan is guilty. Guileless, perhaps, but not guilty. I think it unlikely that a Wolfish Glirdan would have subscribed to the murder of Eomer, given that Eomer had voted for him.

Finally, to Morm’s case against Anguirel. It has merit, I will admit, but it is purely circumstantial. It is entirely possible that Ang’s comments that morm catgorises as malign were merely the speculations of an innocent on Day 1, with little available in the way of evidence. So, while the case should not be dismissed out of hand, I am concerned that morm saw fit to base such an early vote on it. And I am also concerned over the certainty with which he is expressing his views. That said, he is too “in yer face” surely, even for morm, to be a Wolf.

In conclusion, my main suspicions currently lie with Gurthang, Holbytlass and Firefoot, although I think it unlikely that both Holby and Firefoot are Wolves.

I am also wary of Diamond, Durelin and morm.

Apologies, as always, for the length of this post, but it’s probably the last chance I will get to post until much later in the Day.

[the guy who be short]

SpM = Sense. Good.
Glirdan = Not sense. Good.

Eomer = dead. Cast suspicion on voters. Should look at those who voted neither Nilp nor Eomer - the wolves want us to focus on these.

Mmm.

[Findëasëa]

Jenny-
Apparently, looking good makes me look bad.

Why did I put blame on Form? Because he deliberately said he thought neither Eomer nor Nilp were guilty, then made the vote that made saving them impossible.

I was not saying that you blaming Form specifically would help you. If you were a wolf employing this tactic to make yourself look good, it would have been easy for you to throw the blame on any subsequent voter who didn’t follow your plan.

Also, I do think that taking actions that make you look innocent should be looked upon as suspicious. The other actions that you took yesterday did strike me as those of an innocent, but this one situation really struck me as a setup. Appearing innocent may benefit everyone, but it benefits the wolves the most, so it logically follows that actions such as the ones that you took should be examined more closely.

[Lalaith]

I've been reading through everything, and I find myself in the rather ludicrous position of, like the White Queen in Alice, believing six impossible things before breakfast. Lots of the theories made sense as I read them - which makes no sense as many of them contradict each other. For example, Gurthang and SpM.
I really need to do a crew appraisal, to get my thoughts straight if nothing else, and will do so later today if I have time.
For the time being, a few randomish comments.

All this discussion of who posts first: this does actually depend far more on the time zone of the mod /starting time, relative to the player, than on role.

Too many people who should know better, eg Caran, seem to think that Eomer could only have been mistaken for a Seer if he'd mentioned a wolf, when he could just as easily have been singled out through naming an innocent. I actually wondered myself, if he was the Seer, because of the way he talked about Nilp.

I think Glirdan's analyses threw up a couple of interesting points, particularly about Taliesin and Rune.
I've got to go, more later.