Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[Findëasëa]

Hmm, I have been looking over people’s posts for a while. Some points have stuck out to me as interesting.

Glirden: I find it interesting that he spent so much effort making a post by post analysis of five of his suspects on day two, Despite the fact that he claims he has done this in the past, it seems odd that he would use such a tactic on day two, when most of his analysis consists of him saying that posts was largely irrelevant or that he was not sure what something meant. I would assume that Glirden would be aware of this fact. It might be an easy way for a wolf to write a whole lot and attempt to sound useful, without risking doing or saying anything that could be harmful to him in the future.

the guy who be short: He has not really done anything to affect the village one way or another, except his recent suggestion that the three proven innocents lead the village. I don’t find this particularly suspicious, as in a similar situation in the recent past, he reacted the same way. Overall, he does not stand out as suspicious to me today. I agree that his quietness is odd, but at least if he is a wolf this means that he is at a disadvantage, as he cannot easily try to sway the opinion of the village without drawing attention to himself and perhaps his friends.

Durelin- She does not seem suspicious to me, she just seems to be acting as she usually does. I have never been in a village with a wolfish Durelin, so if anyone has any insights as to how she, or any other players for that matter, might act, that could be very useful.

I will be back in a bit with more opinions in a while if I haven't mistakenly fallen asleep...

[The Saucepan Man]

Apologies one and all for my quietitude, but I am beset by RL issues which continue to prevent me being present as much as I would like. Although, perhaps that is a good thing as my instincts do seem to have been rather off so far.

As regards Holby, well I have a pretty good (or, more accurately, bad) track record of identifying Seers as Wolves. Apologies for my part in forcing her revelation, unnecessary though it was. I doubt that anyone, innocents and Wolves alike suspected that she was the Seer.

Diamond's analysis of me toDay is a classic example of deciding that someone is a Wolf and then searching out the reasoning from their posts to justify that feeling. Some of her points look a little off to me. YesterDay, I thought her a definate Wolf, based on the points I had made earlier in the Day. ToDay, I am not so sure. Her venedetta against me looks a little too bold for a Wolf and comes across, rather, as genuine, albeit misguided. Then again, after yesterDay's events, the Wolves have good reason to be bold and I did think myself a likely lynch candidate toDay, so it would not surprise me if there were a Wolf or two pushing for my death.

Rune's first post of toDay has me a little concerned, as it smacks of Wolfishness without saying very much.

Firefoot is still a suspect, but that may just be because I had convinced myself that either she of Holby was a Wolf. She has come across as sensible and helpful so far toDay.

Lalaith is a tricksy one. Nothing concrete to go on, but I find myself trusting her less and less.

Sorry, not very helpful I know, but I have little time. I shall try to come back later toDay with something more useful but, given RL issues, it may be difficult. I will certainly be back before the end of the Day but I fear that I will have little time for constructive analysis.

[Findëasëa]

Saucepan Man- I do feel like he has been playing a little differently in this village then the others I have been in with him, but not in a strong way at all. It could easily be my perspective, as in the last village he was under a lot of suspicion which started on the first day and so was in a completely different situation. He has not said anything in particular to make me suspicious, his thoughts seem logical to me. Diamond made some interesting points about him in her analysis, so I will try to look back at his posts more closely later.

Diamond18- Hmm I am not sure about her. A lot of her points in the SPM analysis seem to be stretches and a bit strange. I think she does make some valid points about the Jenny situation, but I don’t think that her placing SPM as guilty because of these makes particular sense,

“Actually, that seems very wolfish to me. By broadcasting the possibility, he brought it to the attention of everyone. On purpose. A wolf would do this so that he can later say "Oops, I guess I gave it away to the wolves and that's why they killed her."(Diamond 285)”

I don’t understand her logic here, what would a wolf have to gain from being seen as the reason a gifted had died? She seems to be a misguided innocent, as someone mentioned earlier, but she could also be using this as a cover for something more malicious.

[Findëasëa]

I will be back later today with more, as I still need to look at Kath, Firefoot, Rune, Gurthang and Anguirel. Of everyone in the village at this point, the three that look most suspicious to me are Lalaith, Rune and Gurthang, but I will need to take a closer look at their posts before saying anything definite, so its probably better if I save them for after I get some sleep.
(Sorry for the double post...)

[Lalaith]

Ok, in an attempt to comply with the wish of a dying man, I’ve looked at the voting records of Morm's suspect list. I think it’s quite interesting.

Firefoot: No consistency in voting time. This strikes me as quite innocent, actually.
Day One Voted Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1)
Day Two (second last to vote, just before Gurthang) Voted Lalaith (Ang 1, Lal 2, Firefoot 2, Form 2, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 3
Day Three Voted Durelin (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1)

Gurthang – always votes just a couple of minutes before deadline. This makes me uneasy, particularly as his voting record is not great: two safe throwaways and then a (for all he knew) decisive move for Holby, rather than go for Morm, his lone vote from the day before…
Day One(second-last to vote, 2 mins before deadline): Diamond (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
Day Two (last to vote) Mormegil: (Ang 1, Lal 2, Firefoot 2, Form 2, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 3, Mormegil 1)
Day Three (second last to vote) Holby (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 2, Glirdan 1, Rune 2, Holby 3, morm 3, kath 1)

Rune – always among the early voters. RL constraints, maybe, or just likes to play safe?
Day One: Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2)
Day Two: Holby (Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 1)
Day Three: tgwbs (SpM 1, tgwbs 1)

TGWBS – Seemingly casual middle-period voter….but puts someone in lead each time.
Day One: Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
Day Two: did not vote
Day Three: Morm (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 1, morm 2)

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Then why did you vote for Eomer on Day 1? Before he had even posted? Maybe I'm being a little nit-picky here, but that makes you seem very suspicious to me.
Saucepan.

hahahaha

I knew this would happen, altough I did not think it would come from you Gurthang. By that comment you just secured your self a spot on my list of suspects! Not because you suspect me, a lot of people suspects me and it something would be wrong if no one did that. The thing is that you jump on that random day 1 vote. A vote wich really had nothing todo with who I thought could be dangoures, no my reason was pathetic. I have said this before, but that vote was cast because I was in a hurry and one seemed as good as the other. I did not even think about that Eomer had not said anything yet. For you to jump at something like this is not only very nit-picky, but also wrong, as there in reality is no contradiction in my actions.
Weird and suspicious they may be, but there is no contradicton and for to jump on that seems like a petty wolf atack.

Another person on my list today has to be Anguriel, otherwise I would actually contradict my self. According to my own theory he would be a wolf if Mormegil turned out inoccent and until yesterday I would have cast my vote emidialy as I found out about Mormegil's inoccens. The thing is Mormegil almost cleared Anguriel in his last post. . . This makes me doubt a bit. I will have to give it a bit more thought before I choode who to vote for, but Ang. is one of the main candidates.

[the guy who be short]

Just popping in. A quick appeal to everybody to USE THE THREE INNOCENTS.

Not doing so is pure idiocy. We have nothing to lose and everything to gain by allowing them to draw up a shortlist of, say, four people, and voting from that list.

Girls, please have lists to vote from by the end of the day.

[Firefoot]

Except that they don't have any more knowledge than the rest of us. Granted, we can trust that they won't deliberately lead us astray, but their guesses are as good as any of ours.

Rune, I think your reasoning is rather faulty. I thought Gurthang brought up a valid point.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I said that I did not vote for people only because they would make dangoures wolves. I did not vote Eomer because he would be dangoures wolf. Therefor Gurthang is mistaking! You could critizise my Eomer vote for other things, but not for that particulart thing.

[Lalaith]

Granted, we can trust that they won't deliberately lead us astray, but their guesses are as good as any of ours.

Well, if one of them is a Lover, then there could be some leading astray. Oh and Guy, Taliesin is also a guy...

[Findëasëa]

In fact, if you think about it, we have the least knowledge of everyone in the village(unless Caran or I is the female innocent lover or Talesin is a male innocent lover). All other ordos have one more confirmed identity (themself). I did mention that TGWBS did do this in the recent past, so I am not sure how I feel about it.
X- posted with lalaith

[Anguirel]

Guy, you've twice addressed the Trinity of Innocents as girls. One, Taliesin, is male.

Rune's defence of himself is quite the most extraordinary oratory I've seen for some time. Why did he say what he said if he "knew" someone would find fault in it? Why should criticism from Gurthang be unexpected?

Why is he determined to stick to a restrictive theory (either morm or me being guilty) when its main source morm made a peace offering? I could understand if he produced further evidence, but he does nothing of the kind. Just bizarre, and deeply muddled thinking-especially as I remember him stating a suspicion that morm and I were wolves together earlier.

I believe that one of the candidates on the brink last evening was a wolf. This surreal performance of Rune's has edged him above Durelin in my book.

I am in haste and shall no longer delay a vote. Rune receives it not because he suspects me, but because of the manner in which he suspects me.

++RUNE SON OF BJARNE, CHEESE-EATING SURRENDER WOLF

[Durelin]

I have never been in a village with a wolfish Durelin

No one has...still been keeping up my innocent streak. This time I'm just more useless than ever... (I'm counting the Cobbler as innocent...it's definitely not being a wolf!)

I feel like I'm missing my security blanket. I read through Diamond's post and I find that I don't agree on so many points. I feel so lost...

Rune is still looking wolfish. And apparently more people are finding that to be so. His early votes are interesting.

And TGWBS's voting record has piqued my interested. I've been giving him the benefit of the doubt because he's barely ever here, and that seems to be completely legitimate, but we'll see.

I'm not suspecting Gurthang right now actually because of his late vote for Holby. That's way too bold for a wolf, I'd think. Though, I haven't been thinking in the way of reverse psychology so much the past few Days...

Also, Glirdan's been staying under the radar too much.

Though I'm wondering what you meant by this, Ang:

Death not unexpected.

Which death? Holby's? Oh really?

I agree with you that morm's lynching was idiocy, though.

[Lalaith]

Which death? Holby's? Oh really?

I may be getting the wrong end of the stick here, but if you're querying what I think you're querying, then it is obvious that the wolves would not let an outed Seer live the night...

[Durelin]

I may be getting the wrong end of the stick here, but if you're querying what I think you're querying, then it is obvious that the wolves would not let an outed Seer live the night...

Agh, I messed up again.

For some reason, I keep forgetting that Holby revealed herself...

Argh...

Terribly sorry, particularly to Ang.

I should get more sleep...or something...

[Glirdan]

All I have to say is that Diamond's analysis of Saucy has me pretty convinced of two things: a) Saucy is a Wolf and b) Diamond is innocent.

However, there is that slight chance that Diamond and Saucy could be in cahoots and they're trying to do the Wolf-on-Wolf strategy or she and he are the Lovers. But I'm more inclined to think that Diamond is innocent.

There's something about Ang that makes me inclined to trust him. Maybe it's just because of the quaility of his posts. All of it seems rather genuine in my eyes. But I can't dismiss the fact that morm was innocent and that his main suspicion for two Days straight was Ang (and myself). Maybe Ang really is the louder Wolf of the four? Or maybe it's Saucy and him. Both have flown quite under the radar if you ask me. The suspicion's of Saucy haven't really started until toDay. Those against Ang were made mainly by morm and they stopped yesterDay. Gah! I need to go back and look at Ang and see why morm was so suspicious of him...

[Caranlondien]

Unfortunately I can only be around for the next hour or so (a little less than that). And, even more unfortunately, I'm somewhat at a loss for suspects.

Kath hasn't spoken yet toDay, has she? I'm still rather wary of her. I'd like to hear more about Lalaith from Fin, as she's said she's suspicious of her. I'll probably vote for either Kath or Lalaith. Possibly Rune...

[Firefoot]

For some reason, I keep forgetting that Holby revealed herself...

I'm really starting to doubt that Durelin's a wolf because of things like this... a wolf would remember this stuff. And this seems too strange a bluff to be plausible.

So to create my own personal list for possible voting candidates, I'm taking Durelin off for this thing about Holby, and Kath and TGWBS off for the no-vote thing (Diamond's excuse doesn't take her off the list). (I'm not discounting these people completely, I'm just trying to narrow it down for the time being.) That leaves (in no particular order):

Lal
Rune
SpM
Glirdan
Ang
Gurthang
Diamond

I would say there is an excellent chance that three of these people are guilty (due to possibilities of one of our innocents being the innocent lover and possible error in my own deductions). I do not think it far-fetched that four of these people are guilty. That's about a 1/2 shot - not too shabby. I'd like to have a good look at all these people, actually, but I doubt I will have either the time or the will. I probably will look at Rune, though, and maybe some others.

A thought about the lovers: I doubt they will be doing much accusing of each other/voting for each other simply because of how tenuous their situation is. It's not like wolves where they can kill each other off for the better of the team; if either of them dies, it's all over. I'm not saying they're going to be protecting each other, but hard-core accusing? I doubt it.

[Gurthang]

I'm on my lunch break, so I don't have much time.

Rune's response to my question seems a little over the top. Hit a nerve, did I?

Guy, I don't think that our innocents making a list will really change much. They have no one who needs to be protected, which is the major reason we would need a list. They can make a list if they want, but it will actually make it easier for wolves to hide in the voting.

I'll be back about the usual time. I'm thinking Rune will probably receive my vote now.

[Findëasëa]

Gurthang-
He has done some strange things this game. First there is the bible reference thing. He explains that he was trying to see who would ‘bite.’ He says that the closest thing to what he was looking for was something Lalaith had said. Later he says that the true purpose was to incite discussion. These two purposes do not line up in my mind, although perhaps I might be misunderstanding what he meant. This, at best, is a misunderstanding. At worst it is a sign of a wolfish Gurthang trying to get out of being questioned. Another strange thing in his posts is about Eomer. He first comments that Eomer is dangerous, and should be lynched early rather then later. He then notes that he is against the Eomer bandwagon. He votes Diamond because she was a part of the Eomer bandwagon. The next day he comments that at least the village need not worry anymore about how guilty Eomer is. He seems to be trying to put himself in a good light. I am not sure what, if anything this strangeness means, but I thought it was noteworthy.

Lalaith- I have looked over all of her posts again. Her votes all seem so safe to me, as with everything else she does. I have mentioned that this struck me as suspicious before, and it still does. In my experience, most wolves I have encountered have adopted this or a similar tactic. The lack of anything concrete towards guilt is complicated by the fact that there is nothing solid that suggests innocence. If anything, this just tells us that she is good at what she does, innocent or guilty.

Rune- (because he seems like a good possibility for lynching today I wanted to look at his posts in greater depth)
Day one- all joking around and then Eomer vote.

Day two: Comments on safe issue about strangeness of Nilp’s death/ supports a meaningless suspicion of Form’s. Defends Jenny’s actions, claiming a wolf would probably not do what she did, does not say anything definite. He then comments on a few of the players, nothing too solid is said, and gut feeling is cited more then once. Comments on an idea presented by Taliesin, and brings up a valid point. He then votes for Holby for not acting to her full potential.

Day Three: Says he is not surprised about Jenny, but of her choice of Form. He then defends himself, claiming that Glirden’s memory of his playing style must be flawed, but takes this as a complement. He has no particularly strong suspect. He looks more closely at TGWBS, Glirden, Morm, Ang, Holby and Firefoot. Makes a lot of statements like: (S)He could be an ordo because of this ___, but could also be the behavior of a wolf if looked at like this __. Votes TGWBS.

Day four: Notes surprising that Holby was seer, claims to need to think a lot about suspects. He did not suspect any of the innocents who were revealed. Comments on a few of Diamond’s statements. Leaves the door open for possible SPM vote. Defends his Eomer vote from Gurthang, then suspects Ang because he wants to be consistent.

His posts do suggest that he was trying to play it safe. He makes a lot of comments that could go either way if he needed them to. A lot of the issues that he chooses to comment on involve an already dead innocent, things that could not get him in trouble or things that make him look good. Overall his behavior seems pretty suspicious to me.

[Caranlondien]

++Lalaith

Good luck, village, I've got to go.

[Firefoot]

After reviewing Rune's posts, I find my response to be remarkably similar to Findeasea's. His accusations and votes tend to be fairly 'safe,' and are generally held opinions. He alternates between these safe suspicions and a couple of weird, "any-way-this-could-be-contrived-as-guilty" accusations (e.g. his current suspicion of Gurthang). I'm finding him more and more suspicious and right now it looks like he may receive my vote.

[Durelin]

I see Rune's a likely candidate. One vote for him already, and everyone's talking about him.

Well, here's another one.

++Rune

For once, consistency.

[Glirdan]

Ang Analysis

Day 1

Post #10 - In character stuff. Suspicion of Di for scheming against Eomer.

Post #36 - Doesn't agree with Formendacil and he "feels shades of Nilp in a ballad told some time ago of murderous ducks." Agrees with Saucy that we should out the pirates. Doesn't want to hang the slave driver.

I realise that a lot of this post was in character banter, but the bit about hanging the pirates doesn't sit to well with me. Especially since we now know that Jenny was the Hunter.

Post #43 - Says we should wait for Eomer to defend himself before condemning him to death.

Nothing odd here. I agree that the Eomer voters should have given him a chance to defend himself.

Post #51 - Quite perplexed that Jenny accuses people of "nonsense-spouting" yet believes Goosy Gander. Finds morm's vote for Glirdan quite odd. Thought that he thought it would gather support as Glirdan is a solid lynching candidate. Suspects morm, Jenny and Rune and is inclined to trust Saucy.

Again, nothing odd.

Post #56 - Feels Saucy's theories take to many mental leaps. Has misgivings about Gurthang's "anti-Eomer stance".

I'm still not seeing why morm was suspicious of him. Anybody else feeling the same way?

Post #57 - I can't quite get the meaning of the entire post but I think (key word there is "think") that he has a theory that morm the Wolf (now proven innocent) is trying to nab an innocent Eomer by use of guilt. (Ang, plese correct me on this one.)

Post #65 - Says he may be tempted to vote Nilp in order to save Eomer.

Post #71 - Debates whether he should vote for morm, Form or Rune because of his suspicions, or vote Nilp to save Eomer. Votes Nilp.

I can't see much suspicion in his voting for Nilp to save Eomer. I personally would still have voted for the one I was suspicious of, but that's me.

Day 2

Post #116 - In character comments at start. Finds that Eomer and Nilp's death could make Saucy, Gurthang and Jenny more suspicious. Says that Wolves could potentially be found in the major bandwaggons as well as those outside.

Talk about stating the obvious and not really helping out here. I'm sure we all knew that there was a Wolf in the bandwaggons as well as out. It's just to obvious. This makes me slightly uneasy, but nothing major to make him suspicious. The only thing that I could see as suspicious (and it's not in his post) is that Eomer ended up dying. Morm did bring up a good point in saying that it would make Ang look fairly innocent because Ang trusted Eomer on Day 1. Hmmm...maybe morm was on to something here.

Post #122 - Argue's with morm over who the slaves belong to. Insulted that morm would think him a clumsy Wolf because of his throwaway vote for Glirdan.

Petty, in character banter once again. Nothing to go on. Nothing suspicious.

Post #155 - Comes up with a list of Eomer's suspicions which were: TGWBS and Rune for bandwaggoning and Caran and Glirdan for throwaway votes, exonerated Di, noted the Nilp bandwaggon would be a good place for Wolves to hide, thought Gurthang was being silly.

All in all, not a suspicious post. If anything, it helps clear Ang in my eyes.

Post #181 - Thinks that if Eomer's death was a set up, the target would be Rune. Doesn't share Saucy's suspicons of Di; finds she's defended herself the most out of all the Eomer voters.

I must agree with him here, Diamond is the least suspcious of the four remaining. Again, nothing suspicious. So far, I'm seeing nothing that would make me want to go on and continue this, but I will for the sake of finishing what I start.

Post #188 - Realises that he seems to be the most "comprehensively suspected fellow on board.". Is worried about Kath agreeing with morm about Ang being suspicious. Says that morm's reasoning behind his suspicions are lame. Says that his own vote on Day 1 would have made a solid reasoning.

This makes me uneasy again, but for some reason confirms that Ang is innocent. Why would anyone want to give someone else a good foundation for suspicions? It's ludicrous! However, it is possible that Ang is pulling a double bluff. But I'm more inclined to believe him innocent. His point about Kath also makes me uneasy about her now. Hmm...I'll take a close look at her later.

[Glirdan]

Sorry!!! Not done. I'll go finish my thought and continue later (if I feel the need to).

[the guy who be short]

Er... sorry Taliesin!

About the trio of innocents - yes, we can, and yes, we must trust them.

Anything anybody says could be wolvish. Anything proposed at all - any idea, and theory, could be wolvish.

Those three innocents cannot. They give us an objective, innocent viewpoint of things. It's absolute folly to waste them.

We can trust everything those guys say. Yes, they could be wrong. But we can trust them to try to be right. We can't trust anybody else who votes differently to be on the innocent side. Any vote not sanctioned by them cannot be trusted.

Gurthang - I have no idea what you mean by lists being meant to save innocents. They're meant to catch wolves.

Forget democracy, forget equality. If we're to get through this, we need a republic.

[The Saucepan Man]

I have no objection in principle to TGWBS’ suggestion that the known non-Wolves each identify a short-list of candidates for lynching. We can rely on at least two of them being untainted. One of the known non-Wolves may be the “innocent” Lover but, even if that is the case, they still have an interest in reducing the general Wolvish population (by a factor of three by the end of the game).

Unfortunately I have to vote now, but that does not mean that the plan should not be put into action. It will give those of us who are here tomorrow something to go on from whichever known non-Wolf the Wolves decide to kill tonight.

As expected, I have not had time to do anything like the full analysis that I would have liked to do in the current circumstances. However, here are my views of the “unknowns” based on what has been said today and my recollection of the past Days’ events:

Durelin: I am pretty sure that she is innocent, of Wolvishness at least. She has been behaving erratically, which is precisely how I would expect an innocent Durelin to behave. I don’t think that her “eccentricity” would come across as quite so genuine if she were a Wolf trying to follow her usual pattern of behaviour.

Kath: I am suspicious of Kath because of her vote yesterday for morm, and also because she seems to be basing her reasoning on points made by others, rather than coming up with her own thoughts. A definite possibility in my mind.

Lalaith: There is little basis upon which to suspect Lalaith. She has been consistently concise and helpful. She brings up good points which other have not thought of. It’s her usual approach, but it still worries me. A Wolfish Lalaith is deadly, and very difficult to spot. And the points she brings up could well be designed to lead us astray.

Diamond18: I could go either way on Diamond. Her swingeing attack on me appears genuine and, although it does rather misrepresent what I have said (particularly with regard to the Eomer voters – she accuses me of attempting to frame the Eomer voters, but doesn’t mention my later speculation that there may well have been no Wolves among those who voted for him), she gives links to my posts, so I am tempted to conclude that there is no deliberate attempt here to mislead. Wolves generally do not take such extreme positions, because they can come back and bite them. That said, she may be anticipating such reasoning and, other than her attack on me, she has put forward few opinions on whom might be Wolves.

Firefoot: I keep changing my mind on Firefoot. I remain convinced that there was a Wolf among the Day 1 Nilp voters. Since I believe Durelin to be innocent, that Wolf would have to be either Firefoot or Anguirel. Early on, she was very quiet and non-committal but has (apparently) become more helpful as the Days have progressed. However her main contribution toDay has been to focus on possible Wolf-on-Wolf votes. Not very helpful if there have been none (which a Wolf would, of course, know). She also noted that Wolves almost always vote, which I agree with as a general rule, but which would be very convenient if one of the Wolves has in fact not voted on one of the previous Days. And I don’t like her reluctance to consider TGWBS’s plan to use the known non-Wolves.

Gurthang: His votes on Days 1 and 2 looked very safe, yet his vote yesterday was a rather risky one for a Wolf (even assuming that, if a Wolf, he did not suspect Holby as the Seer). Perhaps he was attempting to correct the impression that his early votes gave of a possible safe-voting Wolf. While he has come across as genuine in most of his posts, he is cunning enough to give that impression, if a Wolf. And that Day 1 encouragement of the Eomer bandwagon, followed by a vote for Diamond, still rankles with me. I remain undecided on Gurthang.

Rune Son of Bjarne: As I said earlier, Rune’s first post of the Day smacked to me of Wolfishness. He said that he was surprised that Holby was the Seer (having voted for her). Well, I am sure that most, if not all, of us were surprised when she revealed. Why did he feel the need to make the point, particularly as no one had called him on the point? Then, conveniently, he states that he suspected none of those identified by Holby as innocents, so that didn’t help him. Whether or not one suspected them previously, it is still very helpful to have known innocents (or at least known non-Wolves) around. Then he thanks Firefoot for her voting tally. This post is comprised solely of neutral, unobjectionable comments, all of which appear designed to make Rune look good. Call it instinct, but that looks to me to be the post of a Wolf wanting to say something apparently constructive at the outset of the Day but not wanting to commit to much before seeing which way the ship is leaning. Similarly his response to Diamond’s points against me. He says that he is not convinced, but does not dimiss the possibility of voting for me if a good enough case can be made. And then there is his little spat with Gurthang which others have mentioned (and which would speak in Gurthang’s favour of he is a Wolf). He’s looking very much like a Wolf to me at the moment.

Anguirel: As with Lalaith, I find little basis on which to suspect Anguirel. He is, however, perfectly capable of pulling off a convincing innocent act. He is dangerous, if a Wolf, but I cannot vote for him on that basis alone and I can’t help but think that he is talking far too much to be a Wolf. Keeping my eye on him, though.

Glirdan: I am beginning to revise my opinion of Girdan. He seems to have jumped rather enthusiastically on Diamond’s case against me toDay. He said that he has had a feeling about me since Day 1, but that, as far as I can recall, he outlined no firm suspicions of me until yesterDay. That makes him look suspicious, at least in my eyes. Otherwise, he seems to be acting normally for him, but he nevertheless concerns me.

TGWBS: I remain of the view that TGWBS is likely to be innocent. If he were a Wolf, I would expect him to have been much more involved. His known non-Wolf plan reinforces my view of his likely innocence.

Ai! And now I must vote. Unfortunately, the person who looks most Wolfish to me is also one who has been identified as a possible Wolf by a number of people who I suspect may be Wolves themselves. And I am hesitant to join what is fast becoming a bandwagon. That said, he does look Wolfish to me and, if he is a Wolf, I will be feeling a lot better about those other possible Wolves.

+ + RUNE SON OF BJARNE

[Kath]

RL: Sorry, another Day of little participation from me. I've had appointments all morning and have been waiting for the anasthetic from the last one to wear off before posting. However, my sister managed to break the tv yesterday and with the World Cup and Wimbledon it is rather vital that we have one, so we're now off to Argos to get one. Therefore this will be my only post.

I have been reading through the thread and it seems there are three main concerns.

One is what to do about the innocents that Holby named. Though they were seen as innocent by her it is possible that one is the innocent Lover, so TGWBS's idea of having them create a list is not as effective as it has been before, because if one is a Lover they may be able to sway voting away from their wolf comrade.

The second is the worry over morm's comments on Ang. In previous Days he had gone after him quite strongly, and very strongly on Day 2 (I think). However, his suspicions had switched from Ang to Glirdan even by Day 3, and at the time of his death he seemed almost convinced of Ang's innocence. There were some fears that both morm and Ang were wolves, and others that if morm was not a Wolf then Ang was. We know that the former option can't be true, which makes the latter more likely. However, if we believe that morm was clever enough to focus on those he really believed to be wolves, his strong attack on Glirdan must be considered, as by the time of his death this opinion was stronger than the one he held on Ang.

The third is the emerging fear over Sauce. Diamond's analysis was extremely thorough and did show Sauce in a very wolvish looking light, but it seemed to be done as though written by someone already convinced of his wolvishness, and simply trying to convince everyone else. For this reason I won't pass judgement on Sauce until either I analyse him for myself or a known innocent analyses him as it will create a more unbiased viewpoint.

I've discounted the Sauce theory for now as I want to do my own investigating to form an opinion on that, and I would like to do the same over Ang and Glirdan but I must vote now and I have no time to analyse them at the moment. I will vote:

++GLIRDAN

Tomorrow I will take a much closer look at Sauce, Ang and, if he is still alive, Glirdan in the hope of forming some real opinions.

[the guy who be short]

Taliesin's list: Saucepan Man
Gurthang
Glirdan

Caran: I still feel most uneasy about Kath and Gurthang... I'm less suspicious of Kath now than I was when I started doing the analysis. Something about her posts, particularly those about her suspicions of Jenny, seems genuine.

Fin: Of everyone in the village at this point, the three that look most suspicious to me are Lalaith, Rune and Gurthang.


I'm sorry I haven't had time to come to my own rational conclusions today (we're repainting my room at short notice...) so I have to go on whim and trust.

Gurthang doesn't feel right to me, I can't explain why. It's the same way SpM and durelin feel innocent. In addition, he is the only one the three known innocents have all mentioned as suspicious.

Before it is too late, with the sincerest hope of starting a bandwagon,

++GURTHANG

[Findëasëa]

1. Diamond --> SPM (SPM 1)
2. Ang --> Rune (SPM 1, Rune 1)
3. Caran --> Lalaith (SPM 1, Rune 1, Lalaith 1)
4. Durelin --> Rune (SPM 1, Rune 2, Lalaith 1)
5. SPM --> Rune (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1)
6. Kath --> Glirden (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1, Glirden 1)
7. TGWBS --> Gurthang (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1, Glirden 1, Gurthang 1)

[Glirdan]

I've came to the conclusion that there is no point (in my eyes anyway) to continue my anaylsis of Ang. Nothing in there has seemed to suspicious. There are, however, things that I would like to look at in closer detail in my analysis.

You know, it's just occurred to me that I seem to be the most comprehensively suspected fellow on board. morm's initial campaign was that of an innocent paranoiac, but I'm rather more worried about those who second him...especially Kath, whose point I really can't grasp. "It could either be a set-up." Whose set-up, and of whom, and what? morm setting me up? Ludicrous in my view.

Kath has not been putting out any of her own points and theories. She's been attempting to build a case off of those already created. This could mean she's an innocent with little time or care or she's a Wolf who's trying to stay under the radar. Other than that, I can't really draw anything from her.

One thing that could point to Ang's guilt is the death of Eomer on Day 1. As I said, the fact that Ang trusted Eomer throughout all of Day 1 and then Eomer being killed looks highly suspicious now. Ang could say "What excuse do I have of killing someone who I not only trusted, but is intelligent?" Excatly that. Kill him off because he's intelligent and because you could use that trust to point in a different direction. Maybe I should continue that analysis...

He seems to have jumped rather enthusiastically on Diamond’s case against me toDay. He said that he has had a feeling about me since Day 1, but that, as far as I can recall, he outlined no firm suspicions of me until yesterDay.(Saucy)

That's because I never feel easy playing with you. Normally, those feelings go away after Day 1. However, this time, they've stayed. I dismissed them on Day 2 because I needed to concentrate on the Eomer voters and trying to see who looked more suspicious. But when Diamond came out and said that she didn't trust you either, my thoughts were confirmed. Her analysis of you also gives me more reason to believe you're guilty.

Kath, what is your reasoning behind your vote for me? Is it just because morm said he thought I was guilty? Or do you have something more to go on? Thought of your own perhaps?

[Firefoot]

To clarify: by all means, I want to know what our known (presumed) innocents have to say. But I don't want to vote off a list just because we know the authors are innocent. I'll take their opinions into consideration, but I'd rather make up my own mind.

After looking at Glirdan's posts, I'm also becoming a bit more suspicious of him. I find his vote for Lhuna quite odd, being that when he analyzed Eomer's five voters, Lhuna was at the bottom of his list. Sure, she hadn't contributed much, but if he's more suspicious of other people, why not vote for them? None of them had votes yet, so it's not like that would be an issue. He does a lot of nudging suspicion onto other people. Other than that, he's just sort of there. I did not find much in his posts overly remarkable; too many of his comments on posts say "nothing suspcious/odd here". He's making me sorta nervous.

[Lalaith]

I'm torn between voting Rune and Gurthang here.
On the one hand, I suspected Rune yesterday and he's done little to assuage my suspicions today, quite the contrary in fact.
On the other, I thought Gurthang came out the dodgiest in my analysis earlier today, and I've never been entirely comfortable with him this game.

[Lalaith]

Ok, I've looked over my analysis again and I still think Gurthang looks dodgy.

++GURTHANG

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

So I am back. . . and it looks like I will be this days lynch.

++The Saucepan Man

As he looks to be my best shot at surviving.

I will not bother with a defence, it is not because I want to die. I just have alot of RL things going on right now. (things I did not now would emerge when I signed up)
If I live it is great and I will try to be here as much as possible.


P.S. It took me a long time typing this in as I was chatting as well and therefor cross posted with the 2 previous posts.

[Glirdan]

Gah!! Who to vote? Who to vote...

Okay, I'm going with what my gut tells me to do.

++Saucy

He's too dangerous as a Wolf, he's been flying under the radar quite a bit this time around and Diamond's analysis along with my gut feeling have brought me to this. I just hope I'm right this time.

[Findëasëa]

1. Diamond --> SPM (SPM 1)
2. Ang --> Rune (SPM 1, Rune 1)
3. Caran --> Lalaith (SPM 1, Rune 1, Lalaith 1)
4. Durelin --> Rune (SPM 1, Rune 2, Lalaith 1)
5. SPM --> Rune (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1)
6. Kath --> Glirden (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1, Glirden 1)
7. TGWBS --> Gurthang (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1, Glirden 1, Gurthang 1)
8. Lalaith --> Gurthang (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1, Glirden 1, Gurthang 2)
9. Rune --> SPM (SPM 2, Rune 3, Lalaith 1, Glirden 1, Gurthang 2)
10. Glirden --> SPM (SPM 3, Rune 3, Lalaith 1, Glirden 1, Gurthang 2)

Taliesin are you around? I was wondering how you felt about the situation, or if you thought any of the forerunners particularly guilty. I am still deciding where I will place my vote

edit: changed an incorrect #

[Gurthang]

Just got back from work, and have only had enough time to look at the votes. I'm not surprised I've got a couple, considering how many have been suspicious of me.

What does surprise me is the last two for Saucepan. Reading their reasons that they have presented with their votes, I don't even know what Rune really means. Glirdan seems to have thought about it at least, but the ever popular "too dangerous as a wolf" is always somewhat suspicious.

I'm gonna hold out as usual just to see what happens. If it comes down to me and Saucepan, I'll probably still vote Rune. If I vote to save myself, it means the village would have killed me if I hadn't vetoed it. That's rather unproductive, as it almost guarantees that most of tomorrow's discussion will be about me. In my mind, it'd be better to leave an innocent who more people trust (SpM) than an innocent people don't trust (Me).

[Firefoot]

Time for me to vote:

++Rune

For reasons already stated.

Sauce – 3 (Diamond 1, Rune 9, Glirdan 10)
Rune – 4 (Ang 2, Durelin 4, Sauce 5, Firefoot 11)
Lalaith – 1 (Caran 3)
Glirdan – 1 (Kath 6)
Gurthang – 2 (TGWBS 7, Lalaith 8)

[Taliesin]

Ahh yes I'm around. I was just reading up a bit.
As I said at the start of this day, I feel bad about Saucepan Man.

So my vote goes to him, although Rune is in the lead after Firefoot's vote. That's not too bad, I'm quite convinced he might be a wolf aswell. Let's hope we get a wolf with either Rune or Sauce.

++Saucepan Man