Game Thread: WW LXXXVI - The Halls of Mandos

[A Little Green]

Some scattered comments.

What's more, I'm speaking for the good of the village in mind - and everyone reading back what I've said and thinking about it sees it is true. But if Shasta is a wolf, he knows I'm speaking against their interest. And if tp is an innocent too (a view I'm slightly leaning over right now even if I can't be totally positive about it), then any trust forming between the innocents would be bad for the wolves. So those people should be done away with asap.

This is making me raise my eyebrows a bit, especially the first sentence. I'm not sure about Nog otherwise, I wonder if a Nogwolf would be so aggressive.

Originally Posted by Boro

I find myself having trouble concentrating anything after being referred to as Bobbler. Nice one Greenie.

I'm here to serve.

Originally Posted by Agan

At the moment I'm inclined to say one of Lommy and Greenie is a baddie. Lommy was looking cobblerish, but it was actually only after Greenie pointed it out that peoples started suspecting her. The problem with Greenie is, she's being too nice to me. She questioned me a bit but dropped it quickly and said she's okay with me. Usually when we're both innocent this bickering continues for a few days after which we basically trust each other. But now she seems different - you know, accusing me just for the sake of doing it and stopping it before I retaliate.

I can assure you I'm just as surprised as you are. You've misread me at some point though because I don't think I accused you yesterDay at all. (But if it consoles you, I'm starting to get paranoid about you because I think you're being too nice as well - as in, you haven't annoyed me once! )

Originally Posted by Boro

Edit: correcting typo of "killer beers" to "killer bees"

If I could rep you for a typo, I would.

Originally Posted by Wilwa, about Glirdan

However, I think he could be a Cobbler, who was trying to hint to the wolves.

I was thinking the same. What Agan said - it would be odd from an innocent to say someone behaves the same way they did when they were the Seer - but a wolf would have to be very careless or very bold to do that.

Originally Posted by Agan

Not interested in getting rid of Mänwe so much as saving a potential cobbler or two.

You seem awfully sure none of the other lynch candidates was a wolf.

Originally Posted by Fea

I agree on the first two. Not so much on the last. Shasta is the only one (or one of the only; too lazy to check my stats) that showed a pronounced attack on anybody. And that person was Nog. So my general idea is either Nog is a wolf and the team thought maybe Shasticle was the Seer, since he was actually showing some initiative and some specific ire... or (and this is the one I lean toward), the wolf team noticed that Shasta was showing pronounced opinions, and that if they killed him, the village would think they killed him because they thought he was the seer.

I might be totally off with this - too lazy to go back and check - but I got the impression that Shasta was after phantom quite as much as Nog. That would make the scenario of a Shasta-Seer who dreamed Nog quite improbable.

Originally Posted by Agan

She went consistently after Lommy since her first post. I find the vote somewhat fishy though. Granted, I see what she means about Lommy but she seems to explain her vote in more length than necessary - no one expects day 1 votes to be fully reasoned.

Which means they shouldn't be? I could have simply said "see my previous posts for reasons" but since I hate it when others do that I resolved not to do it myself.

Originally Posted by Nog

And I do doubt that somone with Shasta's experience would just go crazy about that kind of one suspicion on him (mine, that is), especially if he was a gifted as that woud be like calling the wolves to meet him during the Night - just to take the most promising choice.

The way I saw it, Shasta's strong reaction to your vote for him wasn't so much going crazy because he was suspected, but being insulted by your phrasing.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Mänwë was suspicious enough to merit one vote, but definitely not a bandwagon.

Generally, voting for someone means you want them killed. If you think someone merits one vote, they just as well merit a bandwagon of them. I don't know if I'm making any sense at all.


EDIT: x-ed with Nog, a big Lommy and a host of phantoms

[Anguirel]

You're very tempted, phantom, aren't you! I won't break omerta myself, any more than I would, I don't know, steal Rikae's password and read her PMs. This is a comeback game, a real treat for me, and I want it to work however it's meant to work. I really don't think it's worth worrying about people breaking the rules. There are two main schools of thought about this game - Werewolf as competitive sport and Werewolf as psychological art. Both of those kinds of enjoyment would be hampered by peeking, so neither kind of player will do it. And after all, I've never known anyone cheat in Werewolf.

Speculation on the Dead Thread's outward appearance though is of course legit, and have you all noticed that Rikae is - contrary to my guess that she was a coavalta - pretty active in Mandos? What do you reckon is going on there? Just rules queries? Nerwen is on the money when she says there's a surprising amount of conversation going on there considering the population. I feel they must have received some kind of new information, or twist.

Talking of which, Fea, re those hypothetical ten werewolves - I was really referring to Diamond, who added a secret Wereduck if I remember rightly. As we both know, you tend to exaggerate rather than depreciate your minions' enemies' numbers! Your game was great, but I will always regret not persuading your own village to lynch you, 'Dark Lady'.

Legate - not having played with Manwe before, I was unaware that he was a particularly frequent scapegoat; while I regret having played a major role in lynching an unoriginal target, I must say he clearly picked the right game...perhaps he'd booked his bed in Mandos early.

I agree that Glirdan's comparison involving seers was unwise, but it seems to me not necessarily malicious. I must say that I'm known Glirdan as a Cobbler so often that I have illogical and unmathematical resistance to imagining him in that role yet again. I lean towards incautious innocent.

Aw phantom, be nice, give Mith a break and some virtual roses. But Boromir, the logical (well, the extreme) conclusion of your uneasy feeling about these veteran duellists is that they're both wolves. And if they were I could see them planning an acrimonious squabble, certainly. This theory is so amusing and attractive that I am having some trouble resisting it...

I wonder if it would be useful to make a summary of who, roughly, suspects and suspected who(m)?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommie

1. Tp and Lottie might not seem extra suspicious but they kind of annoy(ed) me. 2. I know it was far-fetched, but worth pointing out. I wouldn't discredit the idea of cobblers trying to pass on information to the wolves via hints. 3. I feel so much like saying: in all seriousness, I'm not a cobbler, but I think that wouldn't help my case.

1. Not surprised. 2. I agree that the cobblers will want to hint at the wolves, but the "hint" you found in Boro's post didn't seem like a hint at all to me. 3. Love.

Originally Posted by Lom

Okay now that was too much! You always suspect me, at least on Day1. Are you intentionally trying to mislead people about this??

This is interesting because I seriously think I almost never do!

Originally Posted by Lommy

I don't get why tp is so obsessed about the dead thread. Pardon me for bringing the cobblers up again, but that strikes me as something a phabbler would do: smoothly and subtly try to concentrate the discussion on something rather irrelevant, but not too relevant to raise too many eyebrows.

I don't get it either, but I don't know about your theory. If a phabbler (love the name!) wanted to distract us I'd expect him to come up with something a bit more effective - like some radical plan of action that will prove faulty only after being debated on for hours or something along those lines. Instead it seems it's just him and Ang who talk about the Dead thread.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Fea

Night time WolFea: Hey other wolves, if you Night kill me, the village won't find out I'm not actually the Seer, because they won't be told my role!

You're not serious, are you? Last time I checked, wolves weren't allowed to go kamikaze.

Originally Posted by Ang

I notice by the by that some people seem to think Thinlomien is more than usualy, almost suspiciously, incompetent - I don't agree with this at all; this is a totally novel sort of challenge and I feel utterly incompetent myself. It's very hard to judge on 'past form' in this one... (and that's one of my favourite techniques)

That's a very sweet way of coming to my defense, gallant sir feanorian. But honestly though, I was quite confused yesterDay, but I have the feeling I'm getting a grip of this toDay. Still quite sure I haven't considered several important facets of the game, but given that I'm going to live eternally in one way or another, I sure have time to figure it all out.

Agan's vote came quite out of nowhere.

Originally Posted by Nog

What's more, I'm speaking for the good of the village in mind - and everyone reading back what I've said and thinking about it sees it is true. But if Shasta is a wolf, he knows I'm speaking against their interest. And if tp is an innocent too (a view I'm slightly leaning over right now even if I can't be totally positive about it), then any trust forming between the innocents would be bad for the wolves. So those people should be done away with asap.

Although this is typical nogrodish brewing conspiracy theories at 3am, it still sounds fishy to me. *deep sigh*

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Actually, this statement alone seem pretty cobblerish to me. Noggins raised a very valuable point on the Wolves (a very obvious one however, which makes me raise my eyebrow in his general direction). My question is why is this Cobblerish at all? The only thing that is remotely suspicious is the fact that he is stating the obvious, and that isn't that suspicious, people do it all the time.....well, to be a little more accurate, I do it all the time.

I think saying the wolves would not aim for the seer is good groundwork for discrediting all possible evidence from Night kills, ergo suspicious and cobblerish.

Originally Posted by Glirdy

And her reasoning for her vote for Manwe could just as easily be applied to about five other players, myself included. It seems like it's a throw away vote. But if that's the case, why not just say it's a throw away vote??

A badly grounded vote is not the same as a throwaway. And obviosuly it was not throwaway, in retrospect, it determined the whole voting outcome of the Day. Now we just hope Mänwë was a wolf but I wouldn't bet too much on that.

Originally Posted by Boro

I actually feel quite good about Lommy, even with that completely erratic cobbler hinting thing that I supposedly did...? I think Lommy's just trying to recover from smashing up her bororadar from the last few games that she is forcing herself into seeing everything I do as some twisted evil plot, as a form of revenge. Even if I think she had a nice working bororadar. It just needed updating, like a 2.0 version, or Bororadar Premium Edition.

Awww, thanks. Trying to imply you're a cobbler, though?


edit: xed with Ang and Green

[Anguirel]

I talk about the Dead Thread because I'm interested in it. Aren't you?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Green

This is interesting because I seriously think I almost never do!

I think you always suspect me on Day1 and drop it on Day2.

Originally Posted by Green

I don't get it either, but I don't know about your theory. If a phabbler (love the name!) wanted to distract us I'd expect him to come up with something a bit more effective - like some radical plan of action that will prove faulty only after being debated on for hours or something along those lines. Instead it seems it's just him and Ang who talk about the Dead thread.

Well I think he was doing that yesterDay.


edit: xed with Ang. I, for one, can wait.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think you always suspect me on Day1 and drop it on Day2.

Hmm. I'm not sure I do, but I'm aware this is a rather fruitless conversation. However I hope you don't think I would stoop as low as to purposefully lie about something like that.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Well I think he was doing that yesterDay.

Ah. I thought you were talking about toDay (which, in retrospect, was rather stupid of me, given that the quote was in your post commenting on Day 1 ).

[the phantom]

I'm unsure of what "distracting" you think I'm doing, penguin-breath. Is there only one thing we're allowed to talk about and anything else is a "distraction"? Frankly, when it comes to providing thoughts and feelings towards others I think I've done as much as anyone.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I do, however agree with everything else and wouldn't mind seeing Lommy lynched myself. Her vote is what's really getting me. She only had three votes, votes for Manwe, gives and explanation but the explanation pretty much said "Look at me, I'm a throw away vote in disguise"

Come on Glirdy! Who should I have voted, then?

Originally Posted by Boro

Lommy - She's always unsure of herself, but so far she's not looking "unsure" it's getting to the looking paranoid point. Bring back the other Lommy please, who was unsure, yet at the same time grounded and gave me stability. I've attributed the only thing that she had been sure of, the bororadar, has gone brokey recently. But until I see more, I'm not going to write that off as the cause.

I think being too sure of oneself only leads to arrogance which leads to blindness which leads to epic fail. That tends to happen to me whenever I think I have a hang of the big picture in any ww game. So, it's better to admit your own confusion.

Originally Posted by Fea

There are obviously the two camps: Day One is important and we need to pay really close attention to it; and Day One is important, but only in retrospect because while it's happening, all the good guys are totally clueless, so their votes are about as reliable as those of the wolves.

More like, camp one says Day1 is important both then and especially in retrospect, while camp two says Day1 sucks excpet maybe in retrospect.

Originally Posted by Fea

That being said, now that Day One is over and we have a bit to go on, I don't think anybody (including myself) should make votes with apathy (and curiosity... I mean, I'm curious about the nature of the Dead Thread).

Eh? I think in this game all the Days are more or less like regular Day1s so I can't see what's the big difference.

Originally Posted by Agan

Lommy has played with Mänwe before and should know bantering doesn't necessarily make him evil.

Not denying that. But it shouldn't make him innocent either.


edit: xed with my darling sister and Mr I-Ran-Away-From-Retirement-Home

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Hmm. I'm not sure I do, but I'm aware this is a rather fruitless conversation. However I hope you don't think I would stoop as low as to purposefully lie about something like that.

Well not unless you were a cobbler. (Censure to safeguard the sanity of the most sensitive people. )

[A Little Green]

Nogrod - Seems his more aggressive self. He's at pains to emphasize his own innocence which strikes me as fishy, but other than that I don't find him particularly wolfy.

Aganzir - Her general tone is leaning innocent, but there have been a few odd comments that make me quite uneasy - the one where she talked about innocents uniting in Mandos as "little risk of a dangerous dead union", and her odd certainty than none of the runners-up for yesterDay's lynch were wolves. Wary of her.

Glirdan - Like I said before, I think he's a very possible Cobbler. Doubt he's a wolf.

Elra - Hard to say at this point. Might take a closer look if I had the time, which I unhappily don't.

Nerwen - Has slipped under my radar so far.

Loslote - Leaning innocent. Unlike some others, I don't find her tone particularly false.

Wilwa - I've seen too little of her to judge. There was something in her post that rubbed me the wrong way, I have no idea what that was though.

Legate - No idea yet, he's just being himself.

Lommy - Seems less suspicious toDay than she did yesterDay. Could still be a wolf, maybe even Cobbler, but I'm willing to give her a pass for toDay.

Nessa - Leaning a little bad. Her vote yesterDay was really odd, I could see a Nessawolf making that vote and counting on it being passed with "Hey, it was Day 1." Cobbler is another possibility - or she might be quite simply an ordo in lack of better ideas.

Blind Guardian - Where is she?

Sally - Where is she?

the phantom - Leaning innocent, though I'm starting to have doubts. (The doubts, though, being mostly of the "I'd hate it if he fooled me" kind.. )

Boro - I'm sort of worried that I can't remember much of what he's said apart from the cute typos, and the odd pessimism-debate. Could go either way.

Mithalwen - She's baffling me big time.

Anguirel - Possibly leaning innocent (but as soon as I wrote that I began having second thoughts). I'll be keeping an eye on him.

Fea - I have no read on her which is strange.


EDIT: x-ed with phantom and two Lommies

[Aganzir]

Lommy is sitting on a chair in her pajamas and telling me how Anguirel reminds her of an old man who has ran away from his nursing home and walks around seemingly aimlessly talking about Homer.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm a bit puzzled of the way you try to make me look suspicious... Are you trying to make me suspect you? Well, no deal done.

Try to make you look suspicious? Dear Noggins I think you're perfectly capable of doing that yourself.

I do think it is a perfectly valid and normal way of playing werewolf that you speculate on the motives behind what someone says looking how a wolf-X would have thought and which would have been her/his motives - or how what X said could be said by a wolf-X.

Me too, and I do that all the time, but you sounded mean.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I talk about the Dead Thread because I'm interested in it. Aren't you?

Yes. As a matter of fact, I'm going there tomorrow. Just for your information.

I wanted to see reactions to Shasta's death before revealing (especially Nog's), and I rather didn't wait till tomorrow just on the offhand chance the wolves decided to target me. I'm not much wiser, except I am not feeling in any way better about Nog.

Where art thou gone? The day is bare,
the sunlight dark, and cold the air!
Shastanis, where went thy feet?
O wayward star! O maiden sweet!
O flower of Elfland all too fair
for mortal heart! The woods are bare!

Congrats, wolves. You killed Lúthien.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Agan

Lommy is sitting on a chair in her pajamas and telling me how Anguirel reminds her of an old man who has ran away from his nursing home and walks around seemingly aimlessly talking about Homer.

Oh noes, now I know why the "insult" a few posts above came so readily into my home. Mes apologies to Anguirel, I didn't mean to compare him with the pantom. (Oops! I seriously didn't make that typo on purpose but I just can't correct it anymore!!! )

And ouches, Agan. Not sure whose point this proves, though...

[the phantom]

Agan- Please say you're kidding...

Bleh....

In other words the Night-kill was almost as bad as it possibly could've been.

[Nogrod]

Well of course we have a phabbler.

I mean I was thinking about it yesterDay and then a bit during the Night - as this time no looking back to the thread by Night will be futile as you don't die as such.

Basically he was talking sense, making good points, being reasonable... well what else do you expect from tp? And I actually thought him a good and helpful ordinary innocent there and then.

But looking back at him later I think there was an unusual amount of small errors in his plans, all either benefiting the wolves or making it easier for them to play against us with their knowledge or then making it easier for us to back the wrong horses...

Let's take an example that has not been discussed thus far (Agan and myself -I'm not sure who, but someone else as well, Nerwen?) actually corrected a few of his suggestions already yesterDay).

He said we could automatically assume that the one the Mandos-folk would give an extra vote for is a goodie if we just agreed on it. I do myself believe there is a chance that the goodies should fare better there than here, but - like some others already have pointed out - it's not self-evident they will.

But there are other major problems as well.

If the voting there goes with the same DL as here as the rules suggest, there will be the same last minute madness there - especially if people here leave the voting to the last moment. So it is actually possible that even with the Mandos which would have a seer present who had made the others believe in him and seemingly there was a charge of goodies; well even then enough numbers of cobblers and/or wolves could make last minute impact on the extra-vote here.

Also, the Mandos goodies (if they were in charge) might have a good reason to give an extra vote to other people than "known ordinary innocents". Let's say we have a situation where a wolf and an innocent are leading the tally and a cobbler is voting the wolf and an the ordo is voting the other ordo. Surely if they knew the other was a wolf they would give the extra vote to the cobbler...

If there was a strict system adopted by us it would make it easier for the wolves to use it than to us. But also, even without a strict system established, if people were generally tuned towards that kind of interpretation it would steer their interpretations - and the wolves could play on that.


EDIT: X'd with a host.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the pantom

Agan- Please say you're kidding...

Or a cobbler?

Not that I can see a reason for a cobbler to say that because it would hurt the wolves more than the village. An ordo could make that kind of false reveal but it would only hurt the village in the long run. So maybe we've got to believe her.

Somehow makes me less suspicious of Nog though. Looks more like he was framed now (although the wolves don't really know anymore than us others). Hmm, wait, not sure if my own logic makes sense.

However, I should vote and go soon. On the positive side, we at least have one known innocent for toDay, so a slightly higher chance to catch a wolf.


edit: xed with monsieur Nogrod

[A Little Green]

Lommy, well then I hope you don't think your sister is an obscure grey box.


EDIT: x-ed since Agan. What?

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Someone used the word "dangerous" in an odd way, about innocent and helpful dead, but I've lost track of who (I'd guess Aganzir) and actually I think such semantics can be overplayed

Lommy, A Little Green, Aganzir (scions of Finnwe) I was just wanting to flag up the fact that I spotted the phrase "dangerous dead union" a while go but decided not to run with it.

However, I've just seen Aganzir's revelation. Weird if true. Why would Shasta have been so unsubtle? No, wait, I can answer my own question. The excitement of being a Gifted gives one a great desire to boast, and makes one liable to deploy the overly confident double-bluff (cf WW II, my disastrous outing as Guardian; sorry if I'm boring you, whippersnappers).

I'm a blossoming youth at the peak of my powers, but I am doing a post-grad degree so I'm spiritually about 90; I won't contest this retirement-home stuff though it makes me feel a bit low (especially coming from Lommy who's be playing nearly as long as me really. Or is it my little hiatus that's winding you people up?)...

Final, frivolous consideration - interest in the Dead Thread is a character thing. Fea's got it too. We're the kind of people who would have been preeetty untrustworthy around the Ring

okay, serious stuff to consider. I'll try and start doing so

[Nogrod]

Sorry forgot the last point I meant to make.

Ironically, the better we fare here aka. the more wolves and cobblers die, the firmer the Mandos is in their hands. And vice versa.


Rikae, you are a diabolical genius! *bows*

[Anguirel]

It's like the British House of Lords, I keep thinking; a hang out zone for defeated politicians...

irrelevant appendix mainly to entertain Mith: the Coalition have a majority in the Commons, the Opposition in the Lords...which ones are the werewolves??

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Agan- Please say you're kidding...

Bleh....

In other words the Night-kill was almost as bad as it possibly could've been.

I naturally expect Glorfindel to keep me alive till tomorrow, not that we're probably going to learn much. I don't know if Shasta is allowed to stay there long enough to learn whether Mänwe or today's lynch was a wolf but I hope he is. (So the wolves are in pains not to lynch one of them today, I'd assume.)
Also, I'm totally going to crack up if Mänwe was a gifted.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So maybe we've got to believe her.

Yeah that might be a good idea. Anybody should be able to see there's no sense in lying - you'll know for sure tomorrow anyway.

Somehow makes me less suspicious of Nog though. Looks more like he was framed now (although the wolves don't really know anymore than us others). Hmm, wait, not sure if my own logic makes sense.

No it doesn't. Why is Nog less suspicious because you know he's been arguing with an innocent than if he had been arguing with an unknown?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Not that I can see a reason for a cobbler to say that because it would hurt the wolves more than the village. An ordo could make that kind of false reveal but it would only hurt the village in the long run. So maybe we've got to believe her.

Somehow makes me less suspicious of Nog though. Looks more like he was framed now (although the wolves don't really know anymore than us others). Hmm, wait, not sure if my own logic makes sense.

It would be a weird move from a cobbler I think. A diversion, granted, but a pretty short-lived one. I just don't see the gain. As for your Nogic, it doesn't make sense to me at least. Could you clarify a bit?

I need to vote very soon as well, I have to wake up ridiculously early tomorrow and need some sleep. I was considering Agan still a while ago but I was obviously wrong. I'm leaning towards Nessa at the moment actually. A part of me argues that a Nessawolf would be too easy a solution but the last time I thought that way she turned out to be a wolf. I'm not comfortable with Nog and Mith, but not enough so to earn either of them a vote. I'd love to take some closer looks at people, but don't have the time sadly.


EDIT: x-ed with Ang and Agan (way too similar nicknames!)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I might be totally off with this - too lazy to go back and check - but I got the impression that Shasta was after phantom quite as much as Nog. That would make the scenario of a Shasta-Seer who dreamed Nog quite improbable.

I should clarify. I don't think Shasta was the Seer. But I do think our wolf pack is just lazy enough to swipe his behavior as an easy way to get the village to target Nog. Whether or not Nog is evil is irrelevant. The point is more that if we spend all of our time asking if Shasta was the seer or not, we won't be looking for other seer hints, we won't be searching for wolves, and we'll blow an entire Day talking about something that all boils down to the wolves taking the easy way out on choosing a kill.

Originally Posted by Ang

As we both know, you tend to exaggerate rather than depreciate your minions' enemies' numbers! Your game was great, but I will always regret not persuading your own village to lynch you, 'Dark Lady'.

Indeed. There were only two. I just didn't tell you they died immediately and let y'all keep going.

And I was just going to casually include some lines from one (any, really) of the Dark Lady sonnets, but they're all about love and I don't want to leave false trails. Just know, village, that I'm feeling nostalgic about that game.

Originally Posted by Lommy

You're not serious, are you? Last time I checked, wolves weren't allowed to go kamikaze.

I'm dead serious. I just don't actually know if anybody has ever tried it. The only game where it would be at all beneficial is one like this, where roles aren't revealed.

Originally Posted by Ang

I talk about the Dead Thread because I'm interested in it. Aren't you?

Absolutely. It's all brand shiny new and I'm too honorable to look at it. Which means it's driving me crazy. Nilp me, let me learn! (Not really. I'm just curious.)

Originally Posted by Phanty Pants

I'm unsure of what "distracting" you think I'm doing, penguin-breath. Is there only one thing we're allowed to talk about and anything else is a "distraction"? Frankly, when it comes to providing thoughts and feelings towards others I think I've done as much as anyone.

Someone sounds defensive...

Originally Posted by Lommy

More like, camp one says Day1 is important both then and especially in retrospect, while camp two says Day1 sucks excpet maybe in retrospect.

Yup.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Eh? I think in this game all the Days are more or less like regular Day1s so I can't see what's the big difference.

Even without knowing the roles of the people we lynch, we can still ascertain the patterns of voting that led to lynches. For instance, phantom voting to avoid a double lynch even though it meant he didn't vote for his stated suspects makes phantom look good, because he could have just let multiple people die, but did not do so. The role of who died is irrelevant, the point is that phantom prevented a group lynch. That makes him look good.

Mithalwen, on the other hand, for attempting to provoke a multi-lynch, looks pretty bad.

Who voted for Manwe and what were their reasons? It doesn't matter that we don't know who he is, because we still have a traceable set of actions that led up to his departure and relocation.

Shasta. We don't know his role, but we know that he's probably not a wolf (because, let's face it, I doubt the wolves would try suicide if I wasn't one of them, offering it up). Therefore, we can look at reasons why not-wolf-Shasta would be targeted at Night. We can look at the people he interacted with. Or we can shrug it off and call it a random kill job.

The point is that we are still capable of identifying pieces of information and analyzing them. We just don't have all of the information handed to us.

Originally Posted by Agan

I wanted to see reactions to Shasta's death before revealing (especially Nog's), and I rather didn't wait till tomorrow just on the offhand chance the wolves decided to target me. I'm not much wiser, except I am not feeling in any way better about Nog.

So if I'm remembering right, we'll be getting Shasta back for a little while?

Originally Posted by Lommy

Somehow makes me less suspicious of Nog though. Looks more like he was framed now (although the wolves don't really know anymore than us others). Hmm, wait, not sure if my own logic makes sense.

Makes no difference.

Originally Posted by Ang

Final, frivolous consideration - interest in the Dead Thread is a character thing. Fea's got it too. We're the kind of people who would have been preeetty untrustworthy around the Ring

Nah. It's not mine, so I won't take it no matter how much I want it. I'm good at just shutting off that part of my mind. Since we can't do anything about anybody else's behavior, there's no sense in dwelling on whether or not people naughtily know more than we do. We should just play assuming they don't.

[the phantom]

A major point Nog is that when I first made that suggestion I was under the impression that the Seer could continue dreaming of Living players. Once someone (Agan?) told me this was not the case I amended my opinion to a specific situation- where a revealed Seer on the Living thread dies and announces his impending dream, and then using the Dead-Thread vote to indicate the result of the dream. It's a good idea, and has no benefit to the baddies.

Not to mention that I said this yesterday-

Originally Posted by me

I have spent a grand total of... oh... five minutes considering tactics and such. I planned to dedicate a good deal of time to it during the first Night, but I was run ragged from dawn until dusk. So, I'm going to say some things and please tell me if my assumptions are missing a key point of this match.

Originally Posted by me

Understand also that I'm not at this time proposing this!! All I wish to know now is if my limited time for thinking has caused me to misjudge the situation. IF it is determined that my thoughts are correct, then we can move on to actual discussion of options.

(Basically, I don't want anyone claiming I'm purposefully pushing something harmful in willful ignorance of some key point. I'd be an idiot to assume that said key point won't be brought to light given the makeup of this village.)

You're doing exactly the obvious annoying thing that I was warning against! I had no time to prepare for the game and I was making all of my posts either during class or while trying to supervise little kids in a computer lab, and in a revolutionary game with brand new rules such a set-up was bound to cause me problems. That's why I spent time tossing ideas around and such to make sure that by the end of Day 1 I had a much clearer picture of things (basically delegating much of the sitting and pondering that I normally do to other people).

And you'll note in the quotes above that I had a nagging suspicion that some annoying chump would latch onto this and say, "Ah ha! He's trying to mislead us! Evil!" which is why I tried to be as obvious as possible that I was NOT trying to get people to adopt my ideas but rather tell me if they were flawed FIRST.

The fact that's it's you of all people doing this incredibly obvious hack-job on me is extremely disappointing.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Lommy, well then I hope you don't think your sister is an obscure grey box.

Psst. Try highlighting it.

Originally Posted by Ang

I'm a blossoming youth at the peak of my powers, but I am doing a post-grad degree so I'm spiritually about 90; I won't contest this retirement-home stuff though it makes me feel a bit low (especially coming from Lommy who's be playing nearly as long as me really. Or is it my little hiatus that's winding you people up?)...

Maybe it's the hiatus (or you being generally off key, heh heh what a good joke) - you know, the two things I remember about playing ww with you are the game when I first got fenrised thanks to you and another game where you accused me of "playing the second fiddle" to Nogrod's accusations.

Still thinking about the Nog thing. Mostly something like: if the wolves caught something that I didn't and thought Shasta was a lover, it doesn't mean they killed him because he looked like a seer to them. Ergo, Nogrod doesn't look so fishy. Makes more sense?

Having dinner now, but then I should leave you and vote. Haven't had time to think about people too much toDay, I've been more thinking about points than the ones who've been making them. Hmm. Well, I'll think about it.


edit: xed with Fea and Phantom

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Ang

Why would Shasta have been so unsubtle? No, wait, I can answer my own question. The excitement of being a Gifted gives one a great desire to boast, and makes one liable to deploy the overly confident double-bluff

False! As I said before, given this set up there is no purpose whatsoever to the Lovers hinting at one another. They already know each other, and it's extremely easy to prove their truthfulness (they COME BACK TO LIFE).

A Lover has no need to bluff or double-bluff, or hint or anything at all. A Lover in this game is simply an Ordo who rises from the grave, and is thus a PROVEN innocent. To say that Shasta was attempting any sort of Lover-based bluff I think is to misjudge his grasp of his role. (i.e. If I were a Wolf I wouldn't bother in the least trying to look for a Lover other than just looking for general jumpiness perhaps that might speak of a Gifted.)

[Nogrod]

Auch!

So what I was afraid was true then?

Looking at it from this POV makes it a bit more sensible though, as I could imagine Shasta being so excited to play lovers with Agan that he could freak out that way with a slightest suspicion (well actually not, it still feels soo odd way from him to react as I think I was the only one supecting him there). Sadly it brought the wolves to his door - and thence to Agan as well.

Heh, I was starting to suspect you Agan with your odd determination to suspect me, even if I was quite convinced after D1 that you were innocent. But I do understand it now as you have a right to say this all started because I suspected him. But then again, he made very badly informed accusations and, sad to say, messed it up himself.

I'd bet a fortune that if he had not made that last post of his he'd be alive still - and you Agan would too. *curses*

Okay then.

So who did it?


EDIT: x'd with a host again... (you guys really keep busy)

[Thinlómien]

I'd possibly die laughing if phanty and Ang were both cobblers.

Originally Posted by Fea

The point is more that if we spend all of our time asking if Shasta was the seer or not, we won't be looking for other seer hints, we won't be searching for wolves, and we'll blow an entire Day talking about something that all boils down to the wolves taking the easy way out on choosing a kill.

And if we don't talk about it, we ignore all the evidence we have.

Originally Posted by Fea

Even without knowing the roles of the people we lynch, we can still ascertain the patterns of voting that led to lynches. For instance, phantom voting to avoid a double lynch even though it meant he didn't vote for his stated suspects makes phantom look good, because he could have just let multiple people die, but did not do so. The role of who died is irrelevant, the point is that phantom prevented a group lynch. That makes him look good.

Mithalwen, on the other hand, for attempting to provoke a multi-lynch, looks pretty bad.

Who voted for Manwe and what were their reasons? It doesn't matter that we don't know who he is, because we still have a traceable set of actions that led up to his departure and relocation.

Shasta. We don't know his role, but we know that he's probably not a wolf (because, let's face it, I doubt the wolves would try suicide if I wasn't one of them, offering it up). Therefore, we can look at reasons why not-wolf-Shasta would be targeted at Night. We can look at the people he interacted with. Or we can shrug it off and call it a random kill job.

The point is that we are still capable of identifying pieces of information and analyzing them. We just don't have all of the information handed to us.

Yes, I see. But there's still also evidence on Day1, too, especially in the end of it (forming voting patterns, alliances, skirmishes, possible hints in banter etc).


edit: xed with Nog who sounds really rather scary!

[Boromir88]

I will likely make my vote for Nog, Glirdan, or Phantom. There's something reeking of evil amongst those three. In the very least I think Glirdan's a cobbler for pointing out Shasta's prior seer behavior yesterday, and following it up with some worry about Nog, but also the possibility he's getting framed. Dunno, just looks like Glirdy has a feeling Nog's a wolf.

Which wouldn't point to anything about Nog, other than someone I suspect is a cobbler thinks he's a wolf. Although I'm more and more not being convinced by Nog and his latest phantom-argument looks more desperatation than an honest disagreement and suspicion against tp.

That group of three, it's been clear enough to me, one of their agendas isn't good, and I would wager more.

Greenie will be elevated from Koala to Swarm of Killer bees if she votes for Nessa. That looks like an attempt to stay out of the main confrontations going on today and make a vote for someone who is either not likely to be lynched or a bandwagon victim if people start getting cold feet about Nog, Phantom or Glirdy. I'm understanding the uncomfortabality about Nog and Mith, because I'm feeling the same way. What I'm not understanding Greenie, is why that's not strong enough to earn your vote, and thus why Nessa? I know you said her vote bothered you yesterday, but today there's been enough shenanigans between Nog, Phantom and Mith that I think is suspicious enough.

Wilwa's threat level decreased from Shark infested waters to Koala. She posted, I disagree with her about Glirdan, but knowing she would have said the same thing I did yesterday makes her look good. And that's not because she agreed, but I can just imagine wilwa having that "what are you silly people talking about" reaction for yesterday.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lom

Psst. Try highlighting it.

I did.

Originally Posted by Lom

Still thinking about the Nog thing. Mostly something like: if the wolves caught something that I didn't and thought Shasta was a lover, it doesn't mean they killed him because he looked like a seer to them. Ergo, Nogrod doesn't look so fishy. Makes more sense?

Having dinner now, but then I should leave you and vote.

Got your point. Thanks! Also, dinner at 10.30 PM?

Nog's reaction to Agan and Shasta being lovers looks fishy, can't pinpoint it but there's something really off in that post.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro

[Thinlómien]

Innocent
Agan - feeling like quoting a Finnish folk song which is about a bear whose biggest crime was endless love.
Fea - seems fine enough, more invlolved and sensible than normally, which I like.

In-between
Nogrod - gives me headache, to be honest.
Greenie - kind of to the point but there's something a bit different in her manner than usual. Can't say what, though, so not saying anything more yet.
Ed - mostly, reminds me of Winnie the Pooh. It's just an irrational association I get from reading her posts and it's all I have this far.
Nerwen - under the radar.
Legate - no idea.
Nessa - see above.
BG - has she even posted yet...?
Sally - where is Sallycake?
Boro - seems innocent and guilty at the same time.
Mith - I think I can usually read her pretty well, but this time I have no clue.

Suspicious-ish
Glirdan - not entirely a fan of his case against me.
Lottie - hasn't done anything useful to put it bluntly, only phangirled. (Don't worry I heart you anyway, Lottiepop!)
Wilwa - the little I've seen of her is just off. Her manner is somehow smug (in the lack of a better word), and it makes me uneasy.
the phantom - smells of pie.
Anguirel - see above, although the stench is not as strong in his case.


edit: xed with both

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

Greenie will be elevated from Koala to Swarm of Killer bees if she votes for Nessa. That looks like an attempt to stay out of the main confrontations going on today and make a vote for someone who is either not likely to be lynched or a bandwagon victim if people start getting cold feet about Nog, Phantom or Glirdy. I'm understanding the uncomfortabality about Nog and Mith, because I'm feeling the same way. What I'm not understanding Greenie, is why that's not strong enough to earn your vote, and thus why Nessa? I know you said her vote bothered you yesterday, but today there's been enough shenanigans between Nog, Phantom and Mith that I think is suspicious enough.

Nessa is the one I have the most solid unease with, based, I admit, largely on her very strange vote yesterDay. As for Mith and Nog - Mith I'm just totally at a loss with and therefore wouldn't like to vote, and Nog is more confusing than downright wolfy. Or was, more like, because he's seriously giving me the creeps now. And I don't really see how voting for Nessa would be more suspicious than voting, say, Nog who seems to be quite a common suspect (ie. quite easy for a wolf to jump on if he is, in fact, innocent).


EDIT: x-ed with Lomz

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Got your point. Thanks! Also, dinner at 10.30 PM?

Blame Agan the cook.

Okay, Boro has a fair point about Glirdy looking like a cobbler. That means I'm actually not going to vote him, because I think the wolves are our primary target. The same logic also saves Phantom and Ang from my vote toDay.

And I'm not really sure if Lottie isn't just a rather confused and possibly slightly lazy or time-limited ordo.

So

++Wilwa

I'm aware this is not the most reasoned of all votes, but call it a gut-feeling. Read her post where she quotes Boro. It's just somehow smug, the tone, she gives the impression that she is slightly less confused than the rest of us, which she would be if she only entered the game after nice Nightly briefing by her pack. Also, the wolves have more reason to enjoy the confusion than us, because after all, their objective is just to slaughter while we really need to watch out for what we're shooting at.


edit: xed with Greenie

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Nog's reaction to Agan and Shasta being lovers looks fishy, can't pinpoint it but there's something really off in that post.

Originally Posted by Lommy

edit: xed with Nog who sounds really rather scary!

etc. etc. etc.

I'd appreciate some real points to refute before I go to sleep than this wishy-washiness which just piles up into common knowledge all those who don't actually read the thread but just vote offhand stick with.

I have nothing against dying after a decent fight with crafty wolves & cobblers or misguided ordos, but that is just plain annoying.


EDIT: x'd with Lommies & Greenie

[the phantom]

Well, at least with that last revelation we can now predict what's been going on in the Dead Thread.

Manwe: Dies and iz dead. Darn. So, um...
*waits*
Manwe: Vote or something?
Rikae: No.
*waits*
Shasta: Dead 2. *#$(#@!!
Manwe: Yay! I haz friend! What R U?
Shasta: Lover, lol
Manwe: Nuh uh
Shasta: Um yeah
Manwe: rly?
Shasta: yeppers
Manwe: Oh noes! I'll B alone again!
Shasta: We vote & stuff?
Rikae: Yes.
Shasta: Coolz.
Manwe: Woot!
Shasta: ++ Manwe
Manwe: ++ Shasta (x-post)
Shasta: ROTFL!!
Manwe: LMAO!!

I think that's about right.

[A Little Green]

Well past bed-time, once again.

++ Nog

Since I figured a Nessa vote would be pretty much a throwaway. A bad premise, but that's it.

[Nerwen]

Back and reading.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

etc. etc. etc.

I'd appreciate some real points to refute before I go to sleep than this wishy-washiness which just piles up into common knowledge all those who don't actually read the thread but just vote offhand stick with.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Well past bed-time, once again.

++ Nog

I don't need to underline this, do I?

But well, like Ang, tp and Fea have already said, gaining a chance to enter the Mandos thread would be interesting indeed.

Speaking of which... I have noticed some of you guys speak of people peeking at the dead-thread prematurely is more or less understandable and kind of obvious people do it (tp even admitted doing that, which actually fits well with my thought of him being the cobbler). And looking at the number of views there (182) thus far strongly suggests it's not done only by the mods and now two players, added with random 'Downers just curious what the thread is about.

So let me strongly disagree and protest.

Keep away from it. Really.

Looking there is unsportsmanlike and bad gaming. And what's the joy of winning if you gain it by deceit?


Some suspicions (and hopefully reasons to trust) coming forwards in a moment or two.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

if the wolves caught something that I didn't and thought Shasta was a lover, it doesn't mean they killed him because he looked like a seer to them. Ergo, Nogrod doesn't look so fishy. Makes more sense?

If the wolves caught a lover hint, they were extremely paranoid. During his early banter Shasta said he'd have to be Lúthien if Nerwen was Beren. Incidentally, it was true, but that's all there was. So no it doesn't make sense.

Originally Posted by the phantom

False! As I said before, given this set up there is no purpose whatsoever to the Lovers hinting at one another. They already know each other, and it's extremely easy to prove their truthfulness (they COME BACK TO LIFE).

Exactly and that's what we agreed - instead we were going to suspect each other if need be in order not to be night-killed.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So what I was afraid was true then?

And what exactly were you afraid of?

Looking at it from this POV makes it a bit more sensible though, as I could imagine Shasta being so excited to play lovers with Agan that he could freak out that way with a slightest suspicion (well actually not, it still feels soo odd way from him to react as I think I was the only one supecting him there).

You are underestimating him (psht, as if playing lovers with me was so unusual for him ). He was seriously annoyed with you and thought you were being deliberately mean.

But I do understand it now as you have a right to say this all started because I suspected him. But then again, he made very badly informed accusations and, sad to say, messed it up himself.

Hmm. I seem to remember we both agreed you looked freaking suspicious. See my post 90, that's where it started for me. (Oh and I actually left a hint - the beautiful lady I'm possibly going to paint was no one else than Lúthien Tinúviel. We discussed you on MSN.)

I am willing to vote for Nog today. He is false and needs to die. Remember Nog, death is not the end - and if you're innocent, you can surely help us even after your death.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Got your point. Thanks! Also, dinner at 10.30 PM?

Nog's reaction to Agan and Shasta being lovers looks fishy, can't pinpoint it but there's something really off in that post.

Yesterday we had dinner at 1 am.
And I totally agree about Nog's reaction. It not only looks like damage control but also as if he was trying to... twist everything.

I like the fact that Greenie voted for Nog but not that she did it after Boro threatened to suspect her more if she had voted Nessa.

Nog if you want reasons, I can naturally go through my posts and make a summary of what I've said of you so far. My main (rational) argument against you is that you should know better, ergo you're playing dumb, and I can't see an innocent you doing it.

[Nogrod]

So my take on things so far.

Starting with the more or less obvious.

Aganzir & Shasta = Beren and Lúthien

I believe it.

As I was afraid of toDay after connecting the dots: Shasta panicked because of one suspicion because he knew he had a dream-role and his lynching would be bad both for his once-in-a-lifetime game and for the village as it's quite improbable Mänwewas the seer (and if he was, he couldn't probably tell him much when returning being lynched on D1). I still wonder why he was that panicky, but that's the only reasonable explanation - which we will learn about toMorrow. If this is a sham Shasta will not come back.

Also, the way Aganzir behaved fits in nicely. She jumped on me for understandable, even if wrong reasons. And like lovers do, they don't accept their loved one made a mistake so it had to be someone else doing it. It looks quite obvious to me - on a level things can be obvious in a ww-game... Well, at least it makes sense.


Uhh, I see Agan has made a huge post... continuing in a moment. I think we need to agree on few things so I'd better check it first.