Game Thread: Werewolf- this time it's real!

[Isabellkya]

Oh but Kent, I have no desire to prove to you that I am innocent.

Do you live in the US Kent? If so, then I could indeed sue you for not being helpful - and I just might win. Ya know... emotional damage and such. xD

I think it imperative that we lynch Greenie toDay. Also, to keep as many bonus votes on our side as possible.

If we make it through toDay and toNight, then we will be here toMorrow. To just dump all bonus votes toDay would be a huge mistake.
Unless, everyone agrees to have the bonus vote showdown toDay. Which I highly doubt.

[Kent2010]

If we make it through toDay and toNight, then we will be here toMorrow. To just dump all bonus votes toDay would be a huge mistake.
-Izzy

That is why it is imperative that all innocents have to save Fea and make sure she doesn't have to use her votes today. And if all unknown innocents do it, we will force the baddies to as well, because they would expose themselves, and make Finrod's protection choice a heck of a lot easier.

At this stage, bonus votes in the hands of unknowns only benefit the wolves, and it is imperative we not only lynch Greenie, but make sure Fea can horde her bonus.

[Isabellkya]

After rereading the pages tacked to the wall over there a few times, I believe I mistook how the stolen votes work.

If the Vampire chooses to use their stolen votes, and wish to use them on Fea - then they would have to actually vote for Fea.
Which would be a dead give away.

To stay hidden, they'd have to vote for Greenie and not use their bonus votes - thus not using their stolen votes.
So anyone not using their bonus votes toDay - is giving a signal of A)not having the village's best interest in mind and B) being guilty of being the Vampire. Save for Kent who doesn't have any, and Fea for being a known innocent.

So Vampire. As I believe I see it - either way you will be known and (hopefully) lynched toMorrow. xD

[Isabellkya]

Since people have said it is pretty much a given that Fea would be killed during the Night, would not the baddies choose a different target?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Since people have said it is pretty much a given that Fea would be killed during the Night, would not the baddies choose a different target?

Depends on whether or not they want to take that chance.

More importantly: I absolutely agree that all bonus votes must be used today. Voted, Retracted, and revoted.

Within the next hour.

Except for mine.

So:

Start voting for A Little Green.

Now.

[Kent2010]

I mean really at this point dumping bonus votes would be like nuclear disarmament.

It would be silly for anyone except for Fea to hold on to their remaining votes. Because...

1. We get Greenie today, the score is then 5-2. Obviously Greenie has to go today because the two other wolves don't have the combined power to over ride us, or this would be over already.

2. That leaves everyone with zero except for the known innocent Fea. It would be silly for Finrod then to not protect Fea during the night. If the wolves choose someone else it is 4-2, but the voting power would be in the village advantage.

-If they do risk it and go for Fea (to take out the bonus advantage), than the score is 4-1 (Finrod dies, but he would take out one of the wolves) and they are even in a worse situation...as we lose Finrod, but they lose another and we still have the voting advantage (because Fea would be saved).

3. If the wolves decide to play tricksy and keep their bonus today to have an advantage the next day they risk blowing the entire game. As they are then completely exposed, but during the night they would still have to make a successful kill to win, Finrod (and everyone else) would know who the remaining baddies are and they risk Finrod making a successful protection, essentially handing the game away.

-Because as said above the wolves today do not have a bonus advantage, and they will be seeking to try and get a bonus advantage. But anyone trying to horde their bonus to try and get an advantage exposes themselves as a baddie. In order for the wolves to win, they still need to make a successful kill and by blatantly exposing themselves, they risk handing the game away, as Finrod would be keyed in to the wolves, making a successful protection greater.

[Kent2010]

Or put it this way Izzy too, anyone who keeps their bonus, will be threatened by a mass retraction of Greenie and a pile up on said person hording their bonus.

[Isabellkya]

Why within the next hour?
Two hours until someone falls dead.

++Greenie


I don't know why, but I've this sneaking suspicion that we are missing something completely obvious.

[Isabellkya]

Why would you switch lynch targets?
Just setting yourself up for disaster.

I'm keeping my bonus votes for the moment, because I've voted so close to the clock striking midnight every Day - that I just can't bear to break with habit.
Not that I'll wait until the dinging.

[Kent2010]

Why would you switch lynch targets?
Just setting yourself up for disaster.
-Izzy

Greenie is a known wolf but she has expended all of her bonus, so if she survives today she won't have any power to save herself the following day. If you are hording your bonus you are benefitting the baddies that's it. If someone is hording them besides Fea that is not good, and every innocent should pile on their vote to the person trying to keep their bonus (you said yourself anyone who is hording their bonus except for Fea does not have the best interest of everyone in mind or they are the vampire), so anyone keeping their bonus I will assume is a baddie (or wants the baddies to win) and we will force that person to get rid of their bonus. Basically we can do it the nice way and agree to it, or the hard way and force everyone to dump their remaining bonus.

[Isabellkya]

By switching lynch targets you are..
A) not guaranteed they are a baddie
b) not guaranteed it will work. Mostly, not even a high probability of it working

[Kent2010]

False, we have already established if you are keeping your bonus, you don't have the best interest of everyone in mind, and right now you are purposefully keeping your bonus and being an obstructionist. So, you add all your bonus now, retract, and vote for Greenie again, or you are exposing yourself as a baddie to everyone and therefor it would be better to get rid of the baddie who is the bigger threat (the one with more bonus).

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Curses! I was making a thorough analysis of Green's posts, and then the browser crashes. >.<

Well, let's start again, dropping all mentions of everyone except the unknowns . . .

A Little Green analysis (highly condensed):

DAY 1

217
Said that Gwath, along with Form and Brinn (both known ordos) look innocent.

DAY 2

318
Analysed the Nienna bandwagon. Gwath's vote (along with Sally's) looked like they made it due to Nog's case. Izzy looked better cos she was suspicious of her before the bandwagon started.

DAY 3

460
Piped in on the bonus votes issue. Said that she agrees that the baddies probably plan to hold on to their bonus votes--like she did, coincidentally. But she tried to dissipate suspicion on those who hold on to theirs.

477
Made a list:

• Izzy and Lari were under the radar.
• Gwath made her raise her eyebrows, but she exonerated him due to his posting.
• Nilp she will keep an eye on.
• Shasta's silence she understood, but his voting was strange to her. Interrogated Shasta rather thoroughly, but concluded that she really has no idea about him.
  
  (Shasta responded in 517.)

484
Went into hyper-defensive mode re the use/keeping of bonus votes.

493
More on the bonus votes issue. I've put the links there so the rest of you can read what she actually said--so read them.

499
Interrogated Gwath for his lack of vote the previous DAY.

505
Was satisfied with Gwath's response. Polls the village for lynch targets.

511
Suspected known innocents. Said she was thinking of voting for Gwath but he seemed innocent to her at this moment.

530
Commented on Nog's hinting of a lupine conversation between Shasta and Brinn.

DAY 4

631
Another list:

• Gwath and Lari were under the radar.
• Izzy was also under the radar, but her vote the previous DAY seemed throwaway to her.
• Nilp needs closer looking at.
• Shasta doesn't ring her alarm bells.

Said she will look more closely at Izzy.

637
Wanted to look more closely at Nilp or Izzy, but lacked the time.

DAY 5

Posts are of evil revealed.

Conclusions:

• Lot of interactions with Gwath, mostly suspicion and then retraction.
• Some interaction with Shasta, at first some suspicion on her vote, and then retraction.
• Suspected Izzy the previous DAY, due to her vote.
• Is rather wary of Nilp
• No interaction with Lari, save for things said in the lists.
• Said interesting things about bonus votes and the keeping thereof.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

++A Little Green (+3)

[Isabellkya]

False.
After this, I'm done with this topic.

Changing the lynch target at the last minute - has a high probability of failing. I've read stories about it in various Werewolf libraries.
How are you guaranteeing that everyone will be gathered here, to do so?
How are you guaranteeing that the new target is even a baddie?

Furthermore - If I were a baddie, do you think I would've even brought up the subject? No.


You can continue to badger and holler all you wish.
I will be using my bonus votes, however as I said - I am keeping with habit.

Go feather ruffle those who haven't voted, hmm?
Or perhaps those whom said they would come back, and have yet to show up?


X'd with Nilp x2.

[Kent2010]

And that is why I say you are being an obstructionist, because you have been saying one thing (those who keep their bonus don't have the best interest of everyone in mind, or they are the vampire) but doing something completely opposite.

Because of that, I have to assume you are a baddie who wants to keep their votes to have more power tomorrow. Greenie is a known wolf but she has no more power, her votes are expended, you are showing your fur by trying to hold on to your bonus, so we would all be wiser to get rid of the baddie who has more power.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Just a note, people: Fea leads the vote by four.

[Isabellkya]

Izzy rifles around the bar and finds a roll of duct tape and a length of rope.
She then ties Kent to a chair and covers his mouth with the tape. Pressing play on a recording device she pulls out of her pocket - she forces him to relisten to the entire conversation the group has had.

X'd with Nilp.

[Isabellkya]

Isn't it only three?

[Kent2010]

Isn't it only three?
-Izzy

Perfect you can use your bonus now to save Fea.

[Isabellkya]

Izzy stares at the garbled "mrghp mrh yuh dfg wert mrbl nfrg mrgh lkmgh dfnf".

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Oh, right, I forgot your vote.

If you will allow me to cleanse myself of this dishonour, m'lady . . . *prepares to commit seppuku*

[Kent2010]

And people say I'm unreasonable.

The only reason you aren't using your bonus now is because you want the remaining innocents to use them and that way you can keep your power for tomorrow.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Deeds, not Words, Kent.

Let them have their fun. If by 15 minutes before the deadline the bonus votes have not been used, then we'll proceed with your plan.

[Kent2010]

Hopefully by then it won't be too late, but I can agree with that, besides I still need to watch American Idol.

[Isabellkya]

++(4) to Greenie.

[Isabellkya]

Vote Tally

Shasta -> Greenie
Greenie -> Fea(10). 11
Gwath -> Greenie. 2
Kent -> Greenie. 3
Izzy -> Greenie. 4
Nilp -> Greenie(3). 8
Izzy +(4) to Greenie. 12

Greenie 12. Fea 11.

[Isabellkya]

Whups, forgot to add.

Left to vote: Lari and Fea.

Hopefully Lari makes it back to vote, otherwise she'll be modfired.

[Kent2010]

Muchos gracias Izzy.

And now to the others dragging their feet - *stares at Shasta and Gwath* - lets go cough 'em up.

[Kent2010]

And Lari too wherever you be.

[Isabellkya]

I don't know why.
But this feels too easy.

[Kent2010]

I'm curious to see whether the two unknown baddies are going to get tricksy and risk exposure - they would have to be very confident in their vote power the next day as well as having a successful kill.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Oh man, 15 minutes before the deadline, and we still have a lot of bonus votes unaccounted . . .

Gwath, Shasta, if you're there, and you're not a baddie, please speak up.

[Isabellkya]

I'm a bit curious as to why Fea hasn't at least regular voted for Greenie yet.

Though, still some minutes to go.

[Kent2010]

Well there's more invisible members viewing this forum than just us three, so more people are here

It might all be rather moot if Lariren isn't here though.

[Gwathagor]

--Greenie

++Greenie (+1)

Just in case. If I'm Pippin, then it won't matter if I use all my bonus votes or not. If I'm not Pippin, then I want to have some bonus votes for tomorrow to combat the last two wolves. If the other two wolves decide to try to lynch Fea instead of Greenie, using all my bonus votes on Greenie won't stop them. So I'm saving some for tomorrow.

[Gwathagor]

Wait, are we using up all our bonus votes? Is that's what's going on?

[Kent2010]

Just in case. If I'm Pippin, then it won't matter if I use all my bonus votes or not. If I'm not Pippin, then I want to have some bonus votes for tomorrow to combat the last two wolves. If the other two wolves decide to try to lynch Fea instead of Greenie, using all my bonus votes on Greenie won't stop them. So I'm saving some for tomorrow.
-Gwath

I was thinking that as long as you and Shasta had the same amount it would not technically matter if one of you was a wolf, because it would balance out (plus Fea's advantage).

But I think the bigger reason to use all bonus votes now is to prevent a secret retraction at the end. Right now Fea only leads by two and there could be a quick retraction to force Fea to use her votes. That would not be good.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

If you force me to use my bonus votes, you idiots, the wolves deserve to win.

Cut the crap and dump the votes. The last day[s] are always insane enough without trigger-finger idiots and bad guys running around with extra ammo.

++Green

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Yes, Gwath. There will still be four of us, and only two (or even one) of them tomorrow. So we outnumber them. Holding on to bonus votes puts those innocents with none in a scary position.

I am inclined to think you innocent at this point, though, so at least using five would be enough (or at least just match Shasta's move, if he makes one.)

Good news is, I don't think Green is Thuringwethil, otherwise she would have used 15 bonus votes--don't think she'll be around right before the deadline.