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Old 04-18-2010, 05:08 PM   #881
Legate of Amon Lanc
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Okay, this does not make it much better. But I am not going to start thinking about Agan now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
It doesn't matter who was innocent-dreamed anymore. They could have been Cursed anyway, and thus would no longer be innocent.
Good point to mention, but let's not run too fast here. There is still no telling right now what exactly had happened yesterNight. Well, I could say the same to the suspicion you raised for me, though, not sure what do you mean by acting differently.

Anyway... as it does not seem like anybody willing to vote Shasta I think I will just vote Mira and go to sleep as I also start to feel rather tired and it's late anyway.

++Mira

Good night.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen, Lottie and Nerwen.
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Old 04-18-2010, 05:09 PM   #882
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
If I go down toDay, I have a request to the village: don't just let it slide. People who voted me will say, "oh, but she looked so evil"– but watch that. I'm pretty sure I haven't, objectively, done anything suspicious. It seems one of those cases where people repeat something until everyone believes it.
While I can agree with some things others say, I would not have a strong suspicion of anyone without going back to look at posts for myself. My opinion on you was based on what I read in your posts in previous Days, and I have been suspecting you for quite awhile. You may not think you've done anything suspicious, but you are looking at it with an inner perspective. If you are innocent, you have to remember that because we don't know your role, something that doesn't seem out of the ordinary to you, may appear suspicious to us.

Aganzir can be a very persuasive wolf, which is why she is dangerous when one. I've seen her make a case like this before (against me, in fact), and persuade the entire village to vote for said person. But with that said, when I've seen her do it, it's been towards the end of a game, when victory is near. If there is still one wolf left (and there definitely was yesterDay when she started the case), that wolf has survive several Days to defeat the village. An Agan-wolf would surely be aware that she would most likely be suspected if Nerwen was lynched and turned out innocent. So I'm wondering whether she would be so forceful against an innocent at this point in the game if she were a wolf.

For a lone wolf to win, the smartest thing to do his stay under the radar and not make any bold moves that could gather attention. So if anything, it might be worth suspecting those who put up bold attacks against another player less than those who follow suspicions. I could be wrong on this...maybe this wolf is very daring, but in my past experience as a lone wolf, it's best to try to sit back and let things happen without being forceful in any way. Unless you're being suspected...then it's all about defend, defend, defend (in whichever way the wolf thinks is most convincing).

Lottie, while we can consider the possibility of the cursed being turned, we shouldn't assume it. I recommend you don't vote someone because you think they are cursed...instead try to find the fourth wolf. If we lynch them, then we will find out whether we even have a cursed.
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Old 04-18-2010, 05:12 PM   #883
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
Try "frustrated". You've never had to defend yourself against Agan, have you Lottie? There's a certain point when it dawns on you that she's never going to accept any counter-argument whatever...
Frustrated can also be furry. There have been just as many frustrated wolves in the past as frustrated innocents. So don't think your frustration is going to make you look anymore innocent.
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Old 04-18-2010, 06:00 PM   #884
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Silmaril

Agan -> Nerwen
Skip -> Agan
Lommy -> Agan (2)
Nerwen -> Agan (3)
Legate -> Mira
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Old 04-18-2010, 06:35 PM   #885
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skip spence View Post
Actually, I've changed my mind.

That vote on Nerwen was rather frivolous actually, not that it would be my first. The person I really think is the likeliest wolf at this point is actually Aganzir, come to think of it. This is based on voting behaviour, general attitude towards people and the contrived dumping the retraction-argument. I'm using mine now:

--Nerwen
++Agan
Alright, after re-reading, this is probably the vote on the Agan-wagon that bothers me the most. With one vote for both Mira and Nerwen and three for Agan, and Mira not having shown up, and me having to leave, and me thinking Skip now looks quite suspicious...

++Mirandir

This will be all from me tonight.
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Old 04-18-2010, 07:09 PM   #886
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Just got back from dinner with the parents. Took way longer than expected, meaning not enough time to do analysis.

While my internet was being shoddy, I was pondering Agan and Legate. However, I don't really have anything to justify those suspicions at the moment because BUS INTERNET SUCKS and I couldn't actually look at anything. I don't feel comfortable voting for either of them with that in mind, especially Agan. Skip's vote looks bandwaggonish. My vote's going to be a throwaway and I'm really upset with myself for having to do that this late in the game. I'll make it up to people if I'm still alive toMorrow.

++skip

Ugh.
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Old 04-18-2010, 07:20 PM   #887
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I'd really like to lynch Nerwen, but someone else has to vote her too in order for that to happen...

Almost 10 minutes until deadline. Where is everyone?
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Old 04-18-2010, 07:20 PM   #888
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Legalysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
'Twas brilig, and the votling wustle
did mulsomingly pestiply,
not only fungoltch lamless parsle
but unpremining detrimy.

Beware the Jabberwock, my foes,
or friends who speak of "Day 1 noes"
when uffish Nogrod Borogrows
...all of you could be voted out.

In other words, I know certain members of the royal birth among us feel their right to checkmate from the start, I also know some of the newcomers to this party might be under the false impression that Day 1s are nothing to go with, but enough is enough and we should quickly stop it.

Just for the record of those who do not know, there is *plentiful* to go on with even on Day 1 - if you save your vote for later in the Day, that is, as by that time you can gather enoug hinformation, at least to help you decide whom you nightlike and whom you dislynch.

Because it is also easy for the Wolves to hide among random votes, if everybody made them, and also, I wonder as to whether a Cobbler would not give her or his presence away by making some stupid move... like voting randomly. Or something. Ahem.

EDIT: crossposted with the predicted Nogromiening pair.
ICness and defending Day 1 logic as opposed to randomosity.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Sumpling up to now.

'Twas brilig, and the Glirding Mirhares
have unstarted with nopoeham,
and Inzy were their simifroshares
no clue of either one of them.

Nienna didn't say much either, but at least seemed to be "concerned". Maybe. The same could be said of Shasta. Let me also note that sally looks all of a sudden far more reasonably behaving than usually in this company... (no offense)

wintywinty... well. I have said it basically above. As a newbie in any case, gets my benefit of doubt toDay, not going to lynch a newbie on Day 1... otherwise looking for more to know about him (her?)

I have no idea about what Fea wanted to accomplish, if it wasn't supposed to be in-character, so I just expect that when she shows up, she will give some explanation, if there is any.

'Twas Brinig... I wonder, not anything suspicious this far, her reaction to the votes (esp. the second one) maybe a bit too "reserved", but okay.

I am slightly at Lossloss, however I hope that as the posting continues, there will be higher frequasonable posts from her, which will help me to make a crilighter idmaginature of her.

Nerwenising Dodo, more or less Nerweanosable, which includes both typical Nerwenish behavior and being reasonable and being slightly nosy

Whittlegright, not suspicious now, yet she might easily be rading (yes, I mean as in "rade under the slipper" );

Juckprising Nogrin did catter much more and was much less - to my gasperate scaspation - Fearied about the winting votes;

thineasy fealing, seems to or wants to seem to know something more about Fea's vote than other people do (or at least more than I do) and even finds Lottie innocent on the basis of that, I would be much interested to know what it is, then. I can think of only one theory right now and if that's what she thinks, it's utter rubbish. Also the *jump* on Greenie felt sort of weird and, how would I say that, unnecessary. In any case, unexpected.

spencible, although a newbie Wolf who had just been instructed at Night might just as well have said the same.

So that's it in shrot.

EDIT: Aganixed.
IC analysis that confuses me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
No, it's *ahem* like underlining what I have just said (and saying that we have certain people who might have done exactly that with their votes, if there was somebody who didn't understand it from my post).


This however is just good point, so I only hope you are not a Wolf, but this far I don't have a reason to think so (so I hope you really are not ). Although when it comes to Cobblers, I am personally more of the type to leave them live at least for a while if we have better targets. But I can imagine such scenario as you have drawn it (I don't think I was in that game), the problem is of course that we are not going to know at all that somebody is a Cobbler before they die. But yes, why not in other words, let's just lynch whoever we think is evil and even if we think it might be a Cobbler, let's go for it, no harm done.

edit: x-ed with Lommy and Morsul
Responding to questions about his *ahem* and Agan's Cobbler point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Ah, okay. Now I see (probably), whatever.

I'll be probably going now and back in... some hours. Rather later, I think, but still quite some time before the DL (of course before the DL, given that it's some 5AM my time).
Says he's going away for a bit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
I hope for the sake of the whole village that this is not a wolf-on-wolf suspicion


Okay, so our Moddess has already clarified that they do, but just a remark to this - maybe anyway for the sake of clarity, it would be better to use votes with people's names so as to make the orientation easier (well, we can look it up if we don't remember the particular person, but it also lowers the risk of casting a mistaken vote for Knight instead of Knave or whatnot). In any case, if people don't want their votes to count, then I would kindly ask people not to use them, or if so, then at least not highlight them, as that totally ruins the point and makes a mess out of the situation. But anyway, I assume that ww's vote was supposed to be "real". But just theoretically technical remark.


That name sounds just awesome I could start using it...



In general I agree with the remark, just seems to me however that Inzil just mentions it, but does not contribute much own thoughts on the Fea-issue himself, even though he thinks it "should" (emphasised) receive some scrutiny. Inzil doesn't seem to be very elaborative in any matter, however. The question however might be why is that. He's rather more... "quiet" than usually.



Ah, but it was my pleasure!



This seems a bit curious to me, as it's basically measuring two people with a different metre, whereas the difference is not that big. Or, there is a difference, Fea was first, yes, but still - this is outright defending the Red Queen on quite clearly defined grounds (explaining her psychological processes), which do not necessarily need to be "the" true reasons, as Fea didn't this far give any explanation on her own... Whatever, just remarking, I find this behavior just somewhat strange.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy (okay that was the explanation I thought you meant) and WW (okay that is not an explanation in my book, even though in some other book it might be)
Makes a technical point; suspects Zil a bit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Good to see the Nogcat being alive and kicking <= yeah, I guess that's him... it even says "Big Grin" at mouse-over.

Anyway... as for the Agan thing, I don't see a problem with that. She gave an overall warning now, so that we know it for the future and don't drag a Cobbler along for too dangerously long. Why not to say that if it occured to her now, and for that matter, I don't think it's undermining Seer's authority, but just warning the Seer and the others about the fact that they can't be 100% sure, but still, Seer is a Seer. Point.

Okay, now I see I am basically crossposting (I have refreshed the page and read what's up), so... some thoughts on people who haven't been posting that much earlier: I don't think Morsul is a problem, I can see where is he coming from, and it's a totally classical Morsul, after all. Who worries me is Fea, not because of her vote, but because of her almost zero participation. Zero participation comes also from Borogroves and Isabellkya, however they in contrary to Fea haven't been around at all. Anyway, what - or who - worries me really the most now is however Lottie. Starting with nothing, continuing with weird half-funny, half-serious-or-is-it? posting, makes me think of Cobbler quite clearly. For that matter, I am actually willing to accept Agan's advice and vote her toDay, as she looks the most evil of all people toDay. Even if she is just a Cobbler, a good shot (and one thing less to worry about). Greenie's last post also worried me a bit, like her slight touch of suspicion of Lommy sounds like somewhat not-carefully-enough copypasted thing from what I have said about Lommy earlier - and which has been clarified meanwhile (as in: could be a Wolf carelessly copying one random concern that has been voiced earlier, on the other hand, it feels a bit weird to imagine Greenie doing that so carelessly). Anyway, like I said, Lottie is my primary suspect now (and I'm probably going to vote soon).

EDIT: eurgh. x-ed with dozens... since Agan #62, so with some sallys, Lotties, Boros , Inzils, more Agans and Lommies and whatnot...
Suspects me and is worried about Fea.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Well that's really a bit too easy (as Lommy already pointed out too).

I could of course also wonder about:


Like "and where might you know that from, Nightly talks perchance?" although you probably have another explanation for that... or do you? (Only a totally stupid Wolf would, however, do that. Which makes me think that, if this does not have any logical explanation, you might be a Cobbler wanting us to think you are a Wolf and knowing it - thus making a blind shot - which would be funnily underlined now if WW said "I am a she", nah but whatever, I assume this is useless speculation as you probably have an explanation.)


Don't Cobblers usually try to think in the exactly opposite ways than normal people?

Anyway, all in all... doesn't make it better. I will be around for a while yet, but my main suspect is here already.
Asks how I know that WW is a guy; thinks I'm the Cobbler.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay... I wanted to say that generally, I dislike the idea of using up retractions when we already have them, as that kind of ruins the point, but then again that I understand the danger hidden in that, but now that Morsul said it... I know exactly what he is referring to, because it happened in the game I have modded, on the last Day he voted early, Wolves bandwaggoned it, and the Wolves won. On the other hand, such things can be (in most cases) avoided with careful reasoning before voting. Also, of course, if people decide to keep their votes, it would have the point only in the case if they keep it for really until late, otherwise it might end up just with the scenario outlined by the retraction-opponents, that is, that all innocents use up their retractions in a few first Days' voting and the WWs then all have their retractions and outsmart the village.

EDIT: x-ed since Agan changed her avvie (so basically since the post I quote)
Doesn't really committ to either side of the retractable debate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
It makes me also uneasy now given how smoothly it goes and how so many people are going for it, however, it's the first time I am actually suspecting Lottie in a game (as my primary suspect), which I think didn't happen this far... so I am just going to go with that too and hope that the queue is a result of the fact that she really is suspicious. I'd like to hope that in the worst case, she's "only" a Cobbler.

A few more minutes... and probably voting and going to sleep.

EDIT: x-ed with Glirdy, Sally and Catnod.
Is a bit uneasy with the Lottie-waggon but is still suspicious of me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Well... one thing to say however is that if they do it at any early date, they will expose themselves and consequently get lynched for that. So it's not really as easily misuseable.


The Shiriffs can talk too, when we are speaking of it. Which is a positive thing here.
Brings up the Shirriffs and responds to something.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Well, didn't he just say "you can use your votes all you want, but I am not using mine"? There's no hypocrisy in that, only a difference in opinion... or that's what I thought.

Anyway...

[*highlight]++Lottie[/highlight*]

Good night.
Votes me and defends Morsul.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
It's not neutral, and it's negative - the Shiriffs talking together can be a powerful thing for the Innocent side. In a way, however, now at least we are sure about Loslote - at least until somebody would make a counter-claim (which would be quite nice, but I don't expect it to happen). Also, it makes perfect sense in the light of her late-yesterDay words like "I am not evil", given the fact that Shiriffs couldn't reveal. I am sure the Wolves have noticed this and also (I have to review yet how the close-to-DL posts went time-wise by timestamps) check the Borovote, if it really saved Lottie, then it must have been obvious. Then the WWs might have been easily thinking "well, Ranger probably would notice this too and would protect Lottie - so let's kill Boro just to be on the safe side!" And maybe there was a chance that some people will still suspect Lottie. So... that's what I think has happened here overNight.

As for Fea being the cobbler, I must say I am happy for the outcome and it seems we were quite lucky. It's not a Wolf, but we don't need to worry about the famous Aganzir's horror scenario, and this is also the only way to be sure and discern a Cobbler from an innocent.

So now I am going to recheck who voted whom and whatnot, and maybe come up with some thoughts. Good that Lottie is making her input, as a known innocent, please continue doing so And btw, no need to weep yet, there is still the possibility that Boro might return from the dead (unless you are targeted and killed at Night, however who knows what the Ranger does...)

And btw, some people yesterDay voiced suspicion about me according to my vote for Lottie, calling it that I jumped on a bandwagon or something, note please that I kept saying that I am going to vote her (and was quite firmly decided to do that) already quite early, and I was the first one to suspect her as far as I am aware (my post where I said it crossposted I think with somebody saying similar suspicion, but that's it). And for that matter, I didn't even realise for quite a long time that Fea's vote was for her as well (as I didn't think about the vote, considering it a "random vote" which, even more likely, is going to be retracted! - cf. Lommy's theory about that Fea cast it only to retract it later. Anyway, I wasn't considering the vote). So my vote was only my vote and that's also why I kept it even with the concern about "easy lynch crowd" (as I said in reply to Nogrod who voiced that concern).

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen and Lottie
Says that loosing the Shirriff is a bad thing (agreed) and defends himself.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, rechecked the votes and also noticed that Boro accompanied his vote with "sorry hun, duty is forcing me to make this choice". Which, basically, is a big note saying "there is something going on here" - although it looks like he said it just to apologize to Fea whom he even might have thought innocent. Anyway, adding two and two together... it's really clear to see now where the WWs were (I'd say almost 99%) coming from.

Otherwise... if I were to assume that there is at least one Wolf in each of the bandwagons, which might as well not be the case, given that Wolves might have been just throwing away votes all over the place and making the village do the bad work... on the other hand, in my experience, the innocents are usually far more straightforward with their votes, i.e. if they have a suspicion, they go for it no matter that nobody else follows them, unlike WWs - of course depending on the particular WW, but I just think it's somehow more likely that way.

Anyway, what was I originally saying. If I had like a gun pointed at me right now and be told "say one name from each bandwaggon", from the Fea bandwaggon, I'd think of either Nogrod or Brinn, as skip who started it sounded reasonable and it was not a bandwaggon yet. Then maybe Brinn more than Nogrod, however I admit I'd have to reread Nog's posts one more time (and Brinn's maybe too, though I think I remember them better as there were less of them), as Nog generally speaks sense (well, Brinn does too, but...) but Brinn seems more "creepy". But in general, I consider both of them quite innocent and reasonable. There is however one important thing to take into account - would the Wolves dare to kill Boro toNight if there was one of them in the Fea bandwaggon? As that'd leave quite a few people, and if somebody took the idea that "now there is a Wolf in Fea's voters, I am sure of it!" there will be quite a large chance for the Wolf there being caught. Not that, on the other hand, there wasn't much of a difference - if Boro was alive and Lottie killed instead, he would probably reveal anyway and thus there will be again only 3 people left. Of course, it all comes down to how much the Wolves did think of at Night, which we can't determine. It could also have been perceived just as a "well, whatever" or "let's do it, we hope that people are not going to examine Fea's voters, thinking that she was a Cobbler so no Wolf voted her" (that would be a rather lame thinking, so I don't assume we have such simple Wolves). In other words, btw, it made me think that this must have been a really baaad Night for the WWs. "This Day went just wrong!" Quite a broken spirit, eh, dear furry stalking friends?

But I think the middle way would make the most sense, that the WWs just did what they had to, and now hoped the Fea voters won't be looked at. Okay, now actually along this train of thought, I have arrived somehow to being more inclined to believe that there might have been a Wolf among Fea voters more probably. If so, then I'd really put my bets on Brinn, as if you look at what she said toDay early, she started assuming a Wolf in Lottie-saving bandwaggon, but she explicitely named Greenie-wagon to be looked at, which could mean downplaying Fea-voters (of whom she is one)... and the more if Greenie was another fellow Wolf of hers.

However, note that this is a theory now made as my thoughts go, following the original premises. As for the other one, Lommy and Greenie are equally good choices for me to find a Wolf in the other bandwaggon if I were to look for it, maybe with having a few more reasons to think Lommy innocent for things she said yesterDay. But anyway, only speculating.

Then there of course would be another, wait, two Wolves among the rest! For that matter, sally's vote's been mentioned yesterDay as somewhat out-of-place and I sort of agree, if nothing else, it was inconsistent with what sally said. It wouldn't be a problem otherwise, but I think Nog or who was it had a point in saying that if sally wanted to save Lottie (resp. create a contest-bandwaggon), she would vote for somebody who already had a vote, and not me who didn't have a vote at all. I don't know if there was much of a chance to lynch me at the point (it didn't seem to me so much), so not sure if I can believe sally's explanation. (And that said, what I said above about innocents sticking to their votes won't certainly apply in this case - as that was not the reason sally stated, she came up with the somewhat strange explanation that she wanted to save Lottie.) Anyway... I am keeping my eye on her now.

Now otherwise, I'd need to look at people again... but I have at least somewhat settled the thoughts for myself.

EDIT: x-ed since my last
Suspects Nog a bit but then attributes Boro's point to Nog.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
out of everyone who was not him or you, you wanted to say, I assume. Anyway... in contrary to people wondering about Lottie's suspects, I suggest we really consider them strongly (especially those which they agreed on). Of course, they are subjectively biased by the fact that it's two Shiriffs who have something in common who are making them, but the fact that two innocent people can communicate and agree on somebody is worth taking into account. Of course a bunch of innocents can be misled by pursuing the same illusion (and it happens all the time), but still - two brains know more than one. How many PMs did you guys exchange, Lottie? Especially the last Night? (Not sure if you are any longer around, but anyway, I think this might be a good thing to say anyway, as for us to take into account in the future - the more you've been able to put together the better.) For that matter, did you or Boro have any fears as to that you might be targeted at Night? (Like that Boro's apology to Fea in the last minute... when I saw it, it seemed like rather an unfortunate thing to say.)


Curious. As I haven't been skimming through the thread much, but I haven't noticed any connection between them, however, thinking about Lottie (wondering whether she is a Wolf or not), I remembered that "I am not evil" saying of her, and came to the conclusion that if I were to believe her, then it basically screams Shiriff, as they are the ones who are not allowed to reveal - so that's as most as she could have said. But maybe your brain is just not as clever as mine or then you are intentionally misleading us (rather clumsily, though) in trying to say that you weren't part of any Night planning.

That said, whereas Agan is starting to slightly annoy me again, I still want to keep myself in check and I don't think she is a Wolf, actually. Not this time. And at least I would hope I am right.
Huh. You know, that really doesn't say much, just talking about Shirriff stuffs and making the point that I was the other Shirriff and that the wolves probably noticed Boro's vote...not very helpful.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Not sure if I understand what you mean by this... but if you mean what I think you mean, at least for me it was slightly unnerving - influenced by the worries stated by Nogrod - to see the number of Lottie-voters amassing. That's what I'd call "smooth": going on and on, nobody seemed to contest it (at least by that time). Well anyway I think I elaborated on that yesterDay back then.


Now after Lommy's post it made me once again doubt Zil's innocence, returning my somehow bad feeling about him from early yesterDay. For now thinking of it, his action in relation to the Loslote-wagon would seem like a very nice "I-am-a-Wolf, I'll start out of the way but oh look, what those evil people are doing! On the other hand, if you decide all that Lottie is guilty, fine by me, do it, I just want you to lynch somebody else than us Wolves".



Most of all, she revealed herself as Shiriff. Unless there appears another Shiriff claiming otherwise, I trust her. And since nobody did...



Just a note here, as I think there is at least one part of it which I can see an explanation for from first-hand experience: even though I'd assume that people who have read the thread and thought about it would come to the conclusions above, it's not necessary that they have read it or came to the conclusions. For instance myself, after I have voted, I went to sleep - and later at Night only checked the outcome and did not much bother myself about who voted whom up to this morning, thus, not thinking about Boro at all (but yes about Loslote, as it was a thing I have been thinking about: so she's not lynched, but that does not mean she's innocent, but have I been wrong? So what did she say? But hey, what was this "I'm not evil!" shouting from her - and *click*, here came the idea). As for Fea, I have not seen her posting anything Cobbler-ish, unless you count the vote (for which there was other explanation offered by Lommy), by the time I went to sleep, there was like one more post from her saying nothing at all, and once again, when I read the rest of the thread, she was already dead and her role revealed. That's just to say that at least when it comes to us Europeans, I could see this as one possible thing happening that somebody might not have read the after-we-went-to-sleep things early or with much care, so I'd be taking it into account. On the other hand, if somebody claims to have read them and they have not spotted anything, that maybe might be somewhat puzzling. But otherwise, well.

EDIT: x-ed with one Nerwen, Lommy and skip
Says the same not-much agan.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Well, for the sake of being slightly ironic, you wouldn't have to be staying on the defensive if you actually were posting something constructive instead of it. (That's actually my overall weird impression of your performance in this game which I had noted already by the early time of yesterDay and that was the first thing that struck me as weird about you this time.) Anyway...


Of course I was and I have no problem with that. What are you trying to say now - "look, evil Legate is accusing me, who is white as snow, and I didn't want to lynch Lottie of whom we all well know that she's innocent, while he wanted to lynch our poor Lottie, of whom we all know that she's innocent"? And as for you being fine with Lottie's lynch, I never said that you were encouraging it, but you weren't discouraging it very strongly either. E.g.

That does not sound very "decided" to me. Anyway, the point of what I said about you was not the Lottie part, that was more like an addendum, but the main point of the sentence was that in general, you managed to stay "in the middle" with your behavior. Just like a Wolf who would best profit from letting the village to do the dirty work to actually pick people to lynch, as long as it was a non-Wolf. Your behavior in general looked like that to me - generally flip-flopping up to the point of not taking any initiative of your own.

But whatever, whatever. Please don't make more of what I said than what it was. I am not saying "Inzil MUST BE a Wolf", it was only one thought. However, it would be easy to imagine you as a Wolf - therefore you are on my suspicion list from now on (especially after your reaction now - meaning the thing I quote as second in this post).

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy
Suspects Zil but doesn't really committ.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Back from Alice in Wonderland to... Alirin in Wonderland. Okay, let's see...


I have actually noticed that earlier too, just before I have left. I am keeping it in the back of my head, though my thoughts about sally are not particularly clear at the moment.



But this sounds a rather too over-the-top defensive thing and somehow, the defense sounds just fabricated. That didn't help you at least in my eyes, sally. But whatever...

I am sure I had several more important things to say, but as I did not happen to quote them, I apparently forgot them. Okay, one of them was that I don't have any idea about Glirdan, and he does not seem suspicious to me (or suspicious enough to suspect him, if you get my meaning) as he does to many other people. Otherwise... something of Zil's replies made me think that he would be a lot more aggressive if he were a Wolf, on the other hand maybe he just doesn't want to retaliate on me as it would be dangerous for him... but anyway, I am still unsure about him. And yes, one last thing was probably Brinn, whose answer did not convince me about that there were not ulterior motives in not mentioning (nobody said she'd have to look at it herself, but she could have proposed it) looking at the bandwagon she was in (for more details to get a clear idea about what I mean by this look at one of my first posts toDay).

EDIT: x-ed with about ten posts since WW
Still won't committ to Zil or Glirdy, but suspects Zil a bit; says he had more important things to say but forgot them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
I am not sure if I will be taking such drastic measures right now, especially as I am not used to vote people based on just two or three posts with almost no content (but in this case I wouldn't be probably given much of a choice), nevertheless, it really makes me raise my eyebrows. So, ww - was your comment about Brinn something random, or where did it come from? (From Night talks to simply having to have an excuse, I'll be fine with any answer you provide Just it would be nice to see you a bit more engaged in the dialogue when somebody is actually asking you something or talking about you, that's how we mostly do things around here.)

Otherwise... I am really thinking whether Lottie is not a bit too over the top with suspecting Agan, it's happened to me too a few times (one time I remember in particular when I went punctually through all somebody's posts, pointed wonderful totally 100% proofs of his wolfishness, then we lynched him and he was innocent. And I got lynched the next Day. Of course, Lottie doesn't need to worry about that... anyway, it was supposed to say that zeal needs to cool down also once in a while to see things straight). I don't see anything bad on Agan this far... (if she is a Wolf, like so many times, I will end up kicking myself, but at least it won't be any change from the norm.)

Methinks me make myself a list, then vote and go to sleep. (Though beware of Nogrod, my friends, he returned from cinema with us and he's apparently reading the thread and writing something frumiously long... I'm sort of expecting it to pop up at any moment.)

EDIT: x-ed with one WW, M, L and LG
Suggests to me to tone down my Agan-suspicions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
A list...

'TWAS BRILIG:
Isabellkya – sounds more or less sensible in general, no reason to suspect right now
Agan – not suspicious this far, makes an effort and sounds, how to say it, "balanced" enough... okay, now I am starting to worry as I type this... but no, no, mustn't give in to paranoia. Leaving out of suspicion for now.
Lottie – Shiriff, apparently
Nerwen – no reason to suspect, looks innocent-ish this far
Lommy – there were a few moments when I have been slightly worried, but generally looks like innocent Lommie. I somewhat miss the flip-flopping though... ;)

IN UFFISH THOUGHT HE STOOD:
Glirdan – like I said, I don't find him any suspicious in particular. Not innocent either, but...
Nogrod – Nogrod is hard to work with even if you saw more from him than his smile... what more to say.
Mira – I have to admit I don't have paid very good attention to her this far, at least she didn't do anything eyebrow-raising which I would notice and it made me jump off my chair or something.
Shasta – more or less nothing special
Morsul – hard to say, but some of his reactions were innocent Morsul-ish, so he's in the better half this far
Nienna – not much reading on her, there were a few things she said which looked sensible and genuine. I admit I haven't been focusing well enough on her.
Skip – now this guy could be - I have just such a funny feeling - a quite brilliantly doing newbie Wolf. (I can imagine how happy Agan would be if the two of them were Wolves.) Nevertheless, his generally reasonable behavior and all that make me just see him as a brilliantly doing innocent. This far I don't have any proofs of fishiness in his behavior. I'm sort of thinking that if he was, it would show sooner or later.
Greenie – hasn't posted much, like I said, if I were to point at one person from the Lottie wagon and say it's a Wolf, I'd probably choose her, but still, there's not enough for me to read her.

BEWARE THE JABBERWOCK:
Inzil – after seeing him react and taking Lottie's word, I could give him a pass at least for toDay. Watchful eye, though.
Wintywinty – there's been very little input from him and the very little input was not very positive. (But thanks for replying anyway, that clears things a bit.) I'd like to see more input, however, just to be able to actually make a better judgement.
Sally – I find many of the points which have been brought against her as having quite some grounds, and her self-defense didn't help much to convince me otherwise, rather a bit to the opposite. Questionable, at least.
Brinniel – worrying, she's been under my watchful eye and continues to be so.

Note please that the borders of the cathegories can be somewhat hazy and are very general. However I will likely be picking my vote from among the lowest part toDay.

EDIT: x-ed since my last
Doesn't committ to Glirdy or Nog but does suspect Sally.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Thanks, already noticed that...

Noting this down in case Agan turns out to be a Wolf... ;)



Come on! Lottie, you may be a known innocent, but you are overdoing it. Not that I am saying you should not use your time as one with proper zeal, as being partial won't accomplish anything, but this of all things is not a reason for suspicion. Innocents are known to do that too, and on the other hand many Wolves know by now that it does not help them. The reaction can be genuine, so what... (okay, Glirdy's sounding maybe a bit more likely to be forced to me, but that's only because I am sure that Agan probably really is sad about not being able to play with Boro longer - which however does not speak neither for her being a Wolf nor for her being an innocent.)

EDIT: x-ed since my last... that's some two posts at the previous page and Inzil here
Um...how does that help? (the noting Nienna's post)

And admitted.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Well just when I was hoping to let it be... okay, I'd also like to see Zil just posting things orientated more to the present than to the past, but just this... once again, at least from yesterDay I didn't get the feeling that the bandwaggon would look "foul" to you, you were not at least violently protesting against it. You seemed more like "I don't want to be part of that", but not saying much more, therefore sort of implying "I don't want ot be part of that, but if others are determined to lynch her, I don't mind" (I am not saying you said that, but that's sort of logical conclusion stemming from what you said, the blank space you left), which is inconsistent with the picture you seem to be trying to give, that you actually were against it. That's the difference and that's actually quite well enough phrasing my main point against you. Well, whatever (I don't require you to bother yourself with replying this again, Zil, as this is again just repetition...). I am going to decide about my vote and sleep then.
Still suspects Zil.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Ha, just when I was about to remark that we still have to wait for the grin to appear with a long book...

Well! I am feeling slightly tired, but I'd like to wait for that, at least. At least to read it... means maybe I might ponder my vote for about a short while yet.

But in general, thinking Inzil, WW, Brinn and Sally... well, Inzil is a possibility, but I'd like to give him a chance, to see at least one more Day from him and then decide. WW is more or less something similar, and however maybe voting him would be the sort of "easiest" for me, it's sort of against my inner jabberwocky to vote a newbie even on Day 2 if it's on such weak grounds (by weak grounds meaning not the seriousness of my suspicion or things like that, but simply the fact that there were very few posts from him in total). Sally would be an option, and also there seems there are other people suspecting her, so if I wanted to pick according to who of my suspects is most likely to be lynched, I could go with her. Brinn is something in between, the problem is that she's not around much and I did not have the chance to "meet" with her much, in the sense, I'm around when she's not around and vice versa and it would be nice to see her respond to the fact that she's being suspected (something similar goes with sally as well, though sally at least has been responding to people about it). Okay... pondering, let's see if the Cat posts, and then I just vote and go... (I guess that's a sentence I have been saying a lot around here...)

EDIT: x-ed since Nogcat
Suspects Zil, WW, Brinn, and Sally.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Well I was sort of wondering at first too, but then it was apparently only about the first page of toDay. Still... well, let's see where it goes. (I don't think I'll be here for when he reaches the last page, though. So probably leaving it out...)



However this is basically going along with the wind which blows in the village. Glirdan and sally = people who are definitely going to be voted by many. Not sure whether not to beat my inner jabberwocky (see post above) and just go with it.
Debates whether or not to bandwaggon on Salwolf and Glirdwolf.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, now we are talking! (Literally, which pleases me.) Well, it wouldn't, if you had good enough reasons for why you are suspecting such a person. That's not to say your reasons to suspect Glirdy or sally might not be valid, it just struck me as a move many Wolves are known to do, to sort of blend with the crowd. Of course on the other hand, if neither of those two is a Wolf, then it would possibly speak in your favor under such circumstances, as you have not mentioned anybody else.

This however brings me back to my original dilemma. If there were flowers out there, I might as well pick one and decide by tearing away the petals: Inzil-Brinn-Sally...
Doesn't know which to vote among Zil, Brinn, and Sally.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, let's do it like the wise king Solomon would. We cut these possible candidates for my vote in half... no, no, wait, that wasn't what I wanted to do. (Well...)

Since WW just started to be a bit more talkative, I might want to keep him for toMorrow in hope he will talk more again.

With Brinn, I could vote her, but it would likely be just a throwaway vote, and possibly then there might be also a chance to have her talk more until toMorrow.

Now comes the Solomon part. Inzil or sally, I said already that now I felt like I might like to keep Inzil for a bit yet. But to be honest it doesn't matter to me if he is lynched either. In any case, those two are probably going to tell a lot to us if their roles are revealed. So... I think I might vote sally, and see how things go... (and yes, I have taken into account that "frustrated innocent" thing Shasta said about her, but I just think that's always a possibility, and I am not convinced of it being like that so that it would convince me.)

Check, vote and go...

EDIT: x-ed with sally, especially! couldn't have picked a better time, okay, hope it'll help me decide, resp. support my decision... and greenie
Debates between his candidates more.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, so it DID clear things for me. That more or less emphasises all my previous suspicions.

[*highlight]++sally[/highlight*]

The jaws that bite, the claws that catch
will rob thee of thy shinbone.
Tinbone! Thinbone!
I think I've mixed a song or two
For this is about shinbone...

Good night!

EDIT: x-ed since my last.
Votes Sally.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okayy... so in general. As for Izzy-kill, I think it's most likely that she was killed because several people trusted her and nobody really suspected her much. I don't think there's much to gather from there, which probably was the point for the Wolves.

Otherwise... as for Glirdan and Sally, I think sally's comment can mean either. Whatever is Glirdan's role, Sally either wanted to a) if Glirdan is innocent, to make us wonder about her comment, whether it was so obvious that it was Wolf-on-Wolf or something (the same btw. concerning her comment in her list about Inzil "he's innocent! Don't ask why, he just is" or how it was), and of course preferring if by any chance Glirdy was lynched instead of her - it would give her at least one more Night to live and make us waste yesterDay's lynch and then use toDay's lynch on her, or b) if he's her packmate, she really wouldn't care much whoever of them gets lynched, either way it will be a Wolf (that goes also for all the other Wolves voting, of course, let us bear in mind), and in such a case, if he was lynched, yes, she could gamble toMorrow with a Seer reveal or something (although I think it will be somewhat hard for her to get definite support, but it might lure the real Seer out, and in general sow confusion), or simply, if she was lynched (like she was), we might think that Glirdan was innocent because of all that.

Related to that, of course, Nienna's decisive vote could be taken as important indicator if Glirdan was innocent, but we wouldn't know until he is dead, so that is not really of much help now, the matter is too hazy to speculate on right now.

Otherwise... I think the most interesting thing is how people have reacted to this sally-Glirdan thing, as for sure Wolves would have a different opinion on it (in their head) than rest of the people, as they'd know Glirdy's role, and something interesting might leak through.

Let me once again note that it was Inzil who keeps just "coming back to me on his own" (i.e. I intend not to keep looking just at him all the time and his posts jump at me anyway). This:


If Glirdan is a Wolf and Zil too, this would of course be a real possibility for a defense of a fellow packmate. But you know, it's just somehow... clumsy. But in whichever way: whether for innocent or guilty Zil. Okay, he crossposted, so he didn't know what the general mood in the village is, and most of the later posts have shown actually some suspicion of Glirdan. So if Zil is a Wolf, and he wanted to support the idea that Glirdy is innocent, he misexpected (heck, could you say that? No. Is there a word for that? Hope you know what I mean) the village, which showed generally more suspicion to Glirdan this far and now Zil might stick out with trying to think Glirdan innocent. But even an innocent Zil, in my opinion, would have at least more reservations about thinking Glirdy innocent on sally's comment - I mean, Zil has played dozens of games already, and he obviously should know that such random comments thrown by Wolves especially in such a situation can mean anything, or nothing, and they can be bluffs, double-bluffs, triple-bluffs or who knows what. So this very simple reasoning... there is just something wrong with it. But the problem is that it's just clumsy, which does not speak as itself for his guilt or innocence - the possibility of him being a Wolf and "misexpecting" the village's reaction, however, sounds at least a bit more probable and makes a bit more sense (but still it's just weird).


Agreed... Well, now that there actually is more of a reason to suspect him, I am probably going to review him myself, because this far I didn't have reasons to suspect him. I am most looking forward to hearing from him toDay, though, and see how he posts...

Lommy has a good point about that thing that WWs might have killed somebody from Glirdy bandwagon if he's guilty, however of course that doesn't have to be like that necessarily, but it's one quite good remark to consider apart from other things.

Otherwise, there was something really really baaad about WW yesterDay just when I was leaving or maybe a bit later when I was re-reading the thread, not sure, but there was something that made me think at the moment "okay, I definitely have to vote WW toMorrow". Not sure what it was, I am going to look it up.

EDIT: x-ed with skip.
Throws out suspicion of WW and reiterates Lommy's point defending Glirdy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, now I wonder, because I actually didn't find it. Something like that happened, though, it apparently doesn't have the same effect on me anymore. (Now I will spend the rest of the Day thinking about what it was...) I wonder if it might have been his vote for sally (as that's basically the only logical option), but I can't think why. Actually now rereading his posts made me think better of him, esp. if Glirdan is innocent (WW voted sally) and he also quoted Isabell in one of his posts, which given that he posted very few posts in total would somehow "link" him to her, so not sure if the Wolves would dare to kill her if about almost the only person he ever quoted was her. (Though of course, this kind of "link" is so vague that it really isn't any big deal, but...)

Okay, but whatever... for now, I am probably going to review some folks... although I should still read a piece of article for tomorrow, I might spend some time with that and then come back to the thread...
Can't find what made him suspect WW.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
I'm back... but I don't plan to be around for very long, as I have to wake up very early tomorrow. I would actually prefer to leave in about an hour or something, so basically that means I should decide whom to vote here toDay and then go.

Before I do it, general remarks. I have become a bit worried about Aganzir now, just looking at her vote yesterDay. If it's timing was how it was (as stated by Nogrod, when she gave his vote to him), and if Glirdan is a Wolf, then that would be really a logical way to vote for a Wolf, as it was likely other people might vote Inzil (like I could do that, for example) and also it would not be threatening any of the Wolves (Sally and Glirdan, in this scenario). Something similar might go for Greenie's vote for Shasta, in such a case. Once again, this is just with the scenario assuming Glirdan is a Wolf. (Well, I really think knowing his role would clarify many things.) However, I am remarking that with relation to Aganzir also in relation to the fact that she has been just very, well, sneaky up to now (there's probably not a better word). She seems to be going her own way a lot and basically avoiding getting into the "pot", to the center of things where it all boils, while at the same time keeping us aware that she is around and posting and looking reasonable. That said, I do not have any particular reason to suspect her - yet. But I just thought to remark it here as a current thought that's on my mind and maybe, in future Days, it will become worth something. (Or not.)

Otherwise, I don't have particularly specific reasons to suspect Glirdan (as I didn't have earlier) other than the things implied toDay, as I have also mentioned earlier toDay, possible co-packing with sally and all that. If it wasn't for this, I thing I actually wouldn't be suspecting him at all - so now I am not really thinking about voting him toDay, but somebody else.

I'll return to the voting list once again. Basically from somewhere around the point I and WW have voted, it must have been clear for the Wolves that their sally is running up for the lynch. So now depending on the individual Wolves' nature, they'd likely try to either save her (a dangerous attempt which might expose them), or throw their votes away (and thus throwing her away as well). Greenie, Shasta and Mira (and Aganzir, however I have already mentioned her above and technically her vote came earlier, but most of the rules apply - well, see above) belong to this cathegory and it seems fairly likely that one Wolf at least would be among them. If Glirdan is a Wolf, then even more likely. On the other hand, if Glirdan is a Wolf, then I'd expect some Wolf/ves in the Sally bandwaggon. Okay, actually it seems really many things depend on whether Glirdan is innocent or not. One of the things is also my suspicion for Inzil, as his vote was placed in such a way that if Glirdan is a Wolf, it would have been quite good, almost safe place for a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Okay, so in other words, that sort of makes one think about voting Glirdy just for the sake of untangling that knot of questions. On the other hand, maybe it will be more interesting to try to repeat the feat of King Solomon (which seemed to pay off yesterDay) and vote somebody else. I will think for a bit - and then vote and go to sleep. So, around and watching and thinking...

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie
Suspects Agan and Zil; considers voting Glirdy but doesn't come up with original points against him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Well, if I was going by the odds, I would never lynch anybody, as by the statistics, EVERYBODY is more likely to be innocent than a Wolf, it's always 3:13 or how many are we here. (That's why maths don't work and aside from that, I hate maths *moves a bit further away from the post with disgust*.) But most importantly, I was more like thinking aloud - I certainly would not vote him randomly just to see what his role is, that would be utterly stupid. That's also the reason why I do not really want to vote him, since apart from this curisity I have very little that I suspect him for (like I said above, anyway).

I am rethinking, let me see now the list of people for the last time and then I probably vote and be gone. I have to sleep.
Dislikes voting randomly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, so simply put it looks like it finally came to voting my sort of long-term suspect,

[*highlight]++Inziladun[/highlight*]

who is the person I suspect the most in general at the moment.

Good night, people, and vote well.

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie and Shasta
Votes Zil, which actually looks quite bad - he was the potential alternate bandwaggon if he wanted to save Glirdy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, so first, the Seer thing is pretty unfortunate especially at the time like this, as I would have expected this Day to be a really good one for a Seer to reveal (if he had something interesting to say), as that's been quite a long time no Seer around (usually, on Day 2 or 3 at most somebody appears claiming to be a Seer. And especially in this game I was quite happy at the prospect of it happening today, as if such a Seer was an impostor, he'd basically sacrifice himself, with such a low amount of Wolves remaining). Well, okay, but on the positive note, we still have lynched a Wolf yesterDay and now we can look for all the possible evidence related to voting bandwaggons etc.

Greenie kill first, though, I don't know if we can assume that the Wolves expected anything from her, on the other hand, she was suspected quite well too, so maybe there had to be a reason to kill her other than a no-trace kill. On the third hand again, most importantly I think we should try to think of Greenie's death in the light of the fact that there are two Wolves who just lost two of their packmates consequently in two Days, have no Cobbler, and it's quite possible some of them are suspected considerably. Now when we look back at the previous Night's kill, it's quite easy to see why a no-trace kill was chosen, they had to just hope that Glirdan will be forgotten next Day and so probably did not want to make any move which could either confirm it or look like a bluff. This time, maybe they wanted to cover the track completely - possibility A - but let's not rule out possibility B, that they wanted to stir thoughts in the village in order to produce new suspects out of the village's own initiative (thus having their hands clean in bringing them up), and that might be for instance framing Nogrod - or Lottie, for that matter, who still hasn't been targeted (but that thing just wouldn't work because there's been no counterevidence for her being the Shiriff, so it does not make sense for anyone to disbelieve her). For that matter, I think framing Nogrod is a possibility, even though I am not saying some of the things - as noted by Nerwen, like that "free to suspect anyone" post on Day 1 - could not point to his guilt.

There was something I wanted to say in regards to Lottie - oh yes, this. Just to note, I think the Wolves might be keeping her around partially also because of the fact that she seems to raise suspicion for lot of people, and especially if it's wrong, they might be thinking that she might serve to make some confusion in the village (influence other people with wrong assumptions etc.) However, of course, if they suspected Greenie was the Seer, then it is perfectly explainable why they didn't target Lottie even though she's a known innocent (and thus at least a hindrance in the voting process as the village's numbers get thinner). If there was anything that could lead the Wolves to think that way, it would be at most that Greenie's remark "you are no Seer", or something, which in the context was maybe a bit out-of-the-blue, but not necessarily sticking out so much (however, now on the other hand, thinking about it, I think I have sort of noticed it back then when she was saying it, even though I didn't pay attention to it - but then it might be likely that if some Wolf was intentionally looking for Seer hints, he might have noticed it. So maybe it raises the probability of the Wolves actually knowing whom they are killing?). Or then we are back again at the possibility of a paranoid Wolfgrod killing her because there was simply no other way. But all in all it really depends on whether the WWs suspected she was the Seer or not.

As for Greenie's dreams, I really am not able to collect any definitely proven hints. It is also possible, however, that she has dreamed of some of the people who have died, which might happen. What she says about Nogrod does not seem to me necessarily like dreaming about him - and I have at least seen that she really tends to suspect him in many games (and he suspects her - which didn't happen that much here, but that does not say anything, it would've been more telling if it was the other way around). I think Greenie was in general rather careful in announcing what she possibly knew about people, which in this way is a pity, but what can we do.

Otherwise, I would join what's been said here:


That makes sense in comparison to what I have read and I can very well imagine Greenie dreaming of Skip on Day 1. That sounds actually the most plausible of all things I can think of, given that she was also absolutely happy to see him playing etc, so I assume she could have dreamed him.

I guess that's it. But otherwise:

Very good "methodical" thoughts, so to say, and that said, off to re-check some of my theories in the light of Glirdan's death, and also re-check yesterDay's voting. Will be back in a while with a few comments to the current situation.
Doesn't see any Seer-hints but also thinks she dreamed Skip. :rolleyes:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
So, after looking again through the thread yesterDay and the Day before that a bit too, some comments.

People I believe more innocent now related to what they said or whatnot in relation to Glirdan: Lommy (remarked about his possible guilt early in the Day because of ), Nienna (was among the first yesterDay to speak and she mentioned that Glirdan actually likely is a Wolf), Morsul (the same, even more strongly), Brinn (generally she said and voted in a few ways that make it seem genuine for her to be against the Wolves, and not just acting or something). The question is, how much were the Wolves willing to get rid of Glirdan yesterDay, there's a slight possibility that they have been decided from the beginning that he's gone and let him be. But in some way I find it more likely that they would not just give up and encourage his lynch strongly to make themselves look innocent. I think some stumbling in the middle is more expectable.

For that matter, my suspicion of Inzil with the theory that if Glirdan is a Wolf, Inzil might be a packmate with interesting way of choosing sides would of course work now. The curious thing however is that Inzil did something again which would be so clumsy that I can't believe he would do that - starting yesterDay with defending Glirdan, while he voted him the Day before. For an innocent, this behavior would make far more sense than for a Wolf. And given now that sally and Glirdan were both guilty, sally's remark "Inzil is innocent, I just know that" seems rather more unlikely to make if Inzil was another packmate of theirs - simply putting too much at risk.

So I am not sure right now what to think of Inzil. Anyway, as for what I have said about Greenie possibly dreaming about skip, his yesterDay's voting was on the other hand very suspicious - but then again, I have read this:



I think this might be a very innocent explanation of why skip trusted Glirdan, and so in the end I am ready to accept him as innocent, given the other things like the probability that Greenie dreamed of him. But all in all, otherwise, things start getting rather dark. That means I probably have to look at the rest of the people whom I have not been looking very much at this far - like Shasta, Mira etc. I am also growing slight paranogroid, but... well.
Trusts Skip; suspects Zil; trusts Lommy, Nienna, Morsul, and Brinn.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, I am back here, but I feel sort of... exhausted. Well, been walking around the city for three hours straight and then two hours with an one-hour pause... spent the last half an hour with partially reading and partially eating. I think I will spend some time with the latter yet. My hands really don't feel like typing (although I have no idea what they have to do with walking, but it simply is like that), so for now I will limit myself to few one-line comments.


Well, but obviously she didn't. One thing that comes to my mind is that if she didn't have really any strong support for her claim, especially if she e.g. has dreamed about some people who were already dead, she wouldn't dare to come forth. Heck, there is even the unlikely scenario that she dreamed about ONLY the dead people. (Although that's of course a bit over the top.) Anyway, I think Nogrod is a bit too "pessimistic" here - or also deliberately covering the fact that he killed Greenie. In any case, not being able to uncover anything is one thing, but denying the possibility and not even trying is another.

There are, from my point of view, basically two options. Either the kill was done to frame Nogrod and drive us away from the current (resp. yesterDay's) main suspects, which for me would mean e.g. Inzil especially, or the kill was done to kill a Seer, which would mean most likely a Wolfgrod. I can't see much of any other possibility behind these two and thus will be probably voting according to it toDay.

I agree with what Lommy says, and with what Brinn says here:


Let me also note that if Nog was a Wolf, if he suspected Greenie of dreaming of him, by leaving the Seer alive one more Night, he would also risk another of his fellows (i.e. the last one, in this scenario) being dreamt about, so it would definitely come to eliminating her as first priority. (Not to speak of the fact that if she revealed, the Ranger would've likely protected her at least for one Night.)

The main point for the reasoning that Greenie was killed because of Seerishness is still the fact that the Wolves did not kill Loslote, even though that would make the most sense!

So much for one-liners

EDIT: x-ed with 2/3 of Lommy and the rest
More talk about Greenie.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Two words. Known. Innocent.

I have elaborated on this a bit more in the first post (or maybe second, well one of the early ones, anyway) of toDay, saying that okay, maybe this or that, maybe the matter isn't so pressing for them yet, but still... why not to get rid of the known innocent while they can? Eventually, it will become a problem for them, one person who is "clean", and by that time they might not have the option to choose anymore whether to kill her at Night or not - there might be many, many other more pressing problems and they would not be sure at which Night the Ranger is protecting her or not etc.

EDIT: x-ed since the quoted Nog
Responds to Nog.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Well, I must say that the idea of the Wolves looking for the Cursed makes sense in itself, it's what they would like probably the most right now, but the point is, to use skip's odds from yesterDay, that there is really little chance for them to get one, something like 1:12 or how many. Pretty bad, I think. It would be impossible for the Wolves to just keep killing a person after a person with the intention to find the Cursed, it's as much of a chance that they stumble upon a Hunter who might just as well kill one of them, or an Unicorn, for that matter. The problem is that there is not even a clue about somebody being a Cursed, because the person itself does not know that! So it's just that the WWs may just go about their own business and hope that somewhere along the way they stumble upon the Cursed.

So I don't know what to make of it, Nogrod just joined the list of people who are possibly suspicious and don't make sense at the same time. Really, is that something catchy or what?

Okay, maybe only one possible explanation now occured to me - and that's probably what he meant, now thinking of it - that the WWs would rather kill a person they know is NOT a Gifted in hope that it'll be a Cursed. But, well, that has the same problem as the above (only with the odds being 1:11 instead of 1:12) AND on top of that it would leave a live Seer with all the problems I have remarked in my last post. Ridiculous. All of this does not say anything about Nogrod's innocence or guilt to me, it just tells me that he is thinking in a rather megalomanic way. Unless he is a Wolf and is annoyed to be suspected on wrong grounds, as it should be obvious to us in his opinion that he should have been looking for Cursed and leave Greenie alive. And all of that, of course, considering that the Wolves knew who Greenie is. That's so random that I am actually beginning to consider whether what Aganzir said about Nogrod possibly slipping his Wolf thoughts might not be true after all.

EDIT: x-ed since Lommy's 4/3
Admits that the wolves probably would look for the Cursed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Now, if you are innocent, Nog, you would not resign and try to find some suspect. You are not doing anything. And accusing Agan does not make sense here, because even though you are right that she does not make her own effort, she has a case - unlike you.


I don't know about Shasta, but at least Morsul this far does not seem suspicious to me. He has been acting more or less like his innocent self, and the possible slip of all things is not very convincing to me either (I mean, I can see Morsul making a mistake like that without it being a slip).

It is interesting nevertheless, you sort of made me now imagine the interesting idea of Morsul fooling us (or me) all the time, because he really seemed "normal" to me. Anyway, it's good to see skip sort of working independantly, making me think even better of him. (If he's a Wolf, hats off (to Roy Harper).)

EDIT: x-ed with Nog
Trusts Morsul.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
This makes sense in a way, however, of course one must ask the fundamental question once again, why did the Wolves do what they did if it wasn't so. Back to my thoughts early in the Day, the options do not seem to be too many. In any case, if Nogrod is lynched and he turns out to be innocent, I will be turning back to the situation how it was before toDay, i.e. looking at those who were suspected back then. As if we rule out the possibility of the Wolves knowing Greenie was the Seer, I really cannot imagine other reasons for killing her than creating the confusion, framing Nogrod and leading us away from the trail.

Anyway, my main dilemma toDay is simply whether to join lynching Nogrod - and therefore getting part of the answers to the above - or to believe in the other of the possibilities and lynch one of the other suspects, in my case Inzil. However as I am not sure how much the other makes sense right now and considering that I have been slightly unsure about Inzil's guilt for a few reasons (see earlier toDay), it might as well be Nogrod. Even though I am wondering if his defense is not that of a genuine innocent.
Wonders if Nog could be innnocent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Well but that makes two people out of a dozen.

Good point about Agan, though, I never felt the dreams listed by Lommy made that much sense - or not in the way she posted them, anyway, it played little role. Personally I think one of them was skip, maybe even the first one, and then perhaps even somebody dead, and then depending... a Wolf Nogrod, or something totally different. Well, I sort of spoke about this in the beginning of the Day. It certainly would help a lot to have Greenie revived, but well, we have to do without that at least for now.

And now, to something completely different.

A list. (For those who know Bob, that was supposed to be said in his voice.)

SUSPECTING


Nogrod - mostly this possibility of Greenie kill...
Inzil - see a long time ago, in a Galaxy...

CURIOUS ABOUT

Mira - no idea at all
Shasta - something similar, a bit worried by some points raised against him, but I haven't really made any of my own observations with definite focus on him.

INNOCENTISH WITH THE PARANOID FEELING THAT THEY MIGHT BE WOLVES FOOLING ME (in the order from the topmost - the most paranoid about - to the lowest, the least paranoid about)
Aganzir - that paranoia does not need to be explained, I believe. Also, she is just sort of faring too good. Eurgh.
Nerwen - well... she looks okay, but it's just similar case as Agan, you can't really know with her
Morsul - see my post above
skip - see also my post above
Lommy - is in this cathegory only because her crusade against Nogrod is a bit too much of a crusade, on the other hand, a Wolf would not be so zealous, in my opinion - that would mean basically signing one's own death penalty. Actually, that might almost move her into the next cathegory. Really. Well but then, I could do the same also for Morsul and Skip, as I am really not *that* paranoid about them. Well, and maybe Nerwen. Okay, that leaves Agan. Well, what a surprise ;) Nah, it's not just about paranoia, it's just sort of that I am not THAT inclined to consider them as "clean". But maybe really I should move Lommy down there. Okay, enough of this rant :D

INNOCENTISH WITHOUT AS MUCH OF A PARANOID FEELING
Wintywinty - looks a lot better now, though not posting much
Brinniel - speaks lots of sense lately
Nienna - generally think innocent, early comments about the WWs

INNOCENT
Loslote

In general, if I had to bet, I would say - or hope - that both of the Wolves are among the four topmost.

EDIT: x-ed with two Shastas
Suspects Nog, Zil, Shasta, and Mira.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, if Nog turns out innocent, I will also remember this, Shastaggoning for Nogrod?

Anyway, as for voting, I am not feeling as comfortable as earlier. Of course after two Wolves being lynched it is not any big deal yet. But nevertheless, I think I will be probably voting Nogrod. It also makes sort of the most sense. Even though I would assume him to put up a bit more fight as a Wolf. Argh.

Now I was basically just sitting here and thinking for a few minutes. Okay, let me see if a sudden stroke of brilliance shines on me or if I crossposted with somebody clever, then I vote and go to sleep.
Suspects Shasta.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Well that was not just *somebody* clever, that was our very Moddess

But I'll tell you what, I have this irrational feeling to actually vote for Shasta and just be gone. However that said, I haven't been reading his posts at all with any deep insight and I honestly don't have a clue. And it would be so random. Okay! Let's do it, I am going to actually go very quickly through his posts just to have the peace of mind after reading them (or not). Urgh.

EDIT: okay, x-ed with more, actually Shasta himself.
Wants to vote Shasta.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, it brought some new questions and stuff, but I cannot really focus on that anymore. It brought at least sort-of peace of mind in the sense that I have sort of confirmed to myself that there is only one sensible way for me to vote now. And if nothing else, it is sort of giving Greenie's yesterDay's vote and suspicion of Nogrod a support post mortem. If she ever dreamt of a Wolf, it was most likely him.

[highlight]++Nogrod[/highlight*]

Good night, people.
Votes Nog.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, I am around, however not sure how much time I will have. Not right now, at least, maybe later in the evening (that is, some six hours from now, or a bit later).

For now, in any case, at least here goes my favoured suspect Inzil, and I need to look at other people, even though I sort of wanted to give it a shot. Morsul has raised some controversy, as I see, though he seemed innocent to me before - or at least a "normal Morsul". This self-vote is slightly more puzzling, but then again, if I think about it more deeply, I could imagine an annoyed Morsul doing that. Nonetheless, it can be a last desperate attempt to save himself (or rather half-desperate half-resigned move, as it does not have a perspective, I believe, even if it was so and if it was succesful in making the village go "a Wolf wouldn't say that, let's leave him alone", eventually in a Day or two we'd return to him, I'm sure, but still I can imagine Morsul doing it). But since I cannot tell according to his behavior whether he is just innocent Morsul or maybe a more clever version of Morsul pretending to be innocent, I might as well look at his interactions with sally/Glirdan/Nogrod when I have time (which means not now). That's something that probably should be the key to us in general, as far as we can gather from their attitudes towards other people. We should bear in mind that the WWs, especially later (Nog?) when they saw they are rather doomed, might have possibly tried to disconnect themselves from their remaining packmate, however, there are still certainly things where they'd be more careful and e.g. avoid talking too much with their mates or something. Also the earlier we go (when they felt safe), I think the more we could find, although of course then again, back then they could not have had problems with interacting with their packmates in certain ways because there were just still many people and the WWs didn't think they'll be spotted.

Anyway - that's something that I am going to possibly try to do, but later, for now I will hang around for a while, but probably not have much time to read anything in detail, and then I will be off for several hours.

As for the death of Nienna, as far as I can see it seems most probable to me that she was killed as a person who was generally thought innocent. No other obvious motives (and seems nobody else noticed anything like that either).

Agan, if you still want that thing you quoted explained (or did you already understand it? I wasn't able to gather that from your posts), may you quote where exactly it was from and then I could tell you?

And last of all, I've been called wishy-washy on Wolves, come on, I have voted them in the end (or more or less), and I think a Wolf wouldn't make such a show out of being undecided. That is, speaking of that, also something I want to consider when looking for the WW connections - I think the WWs will be generally rather decided (if they e.g. decided to nail their comrade from the beginning), or with some "back door" open there, but not so openly (i.e. not like talking to oneself aloud for ten posts whether to vote this person or not, but sort of quietly remarking "...but what it" or leaving the door open, Nogrod actually has partially done something like that). I think for example reviewing Nogrod's behavior towards those who seemed to be getting obviously lynched (esp. Glirdan, since with Sally it was Wolf or Wolf) might give some clue to the identity of the last Wolf, i.e. maybe if there was somebody with the same/diametrally opposite behavior who at the same time was sort of careful and not interacting with Nogrod too much etc. - such a person would be a likely suspect for me. But, like I said, I don't have time to check it now.

EDIT: x-ed since Agan, and certainly thanks to Lommy for the list! So maybe I can actually look at something now at least generally...
Complains about being called wishy-washy even though he *was*.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, so if I were to think based on the voting list:

Winty would give some Wolf-on-Wolf votes, but as far as I remember, it was more or less at the phase when lot of it was decided (although at one point I recall him voting either right before or after me, I think it was even before, so that would sort of indicate for his innocence at that time, as it was by the time that the person did not have too many votes yet and WW was basically giving a sort of decisive, or a "now it's real and strong bandwaggon"-type vote).

Lommy is innocent basically 100% for me. There's no way she would have acted like that as a Wolf.

Morsul: hard to say, but given the fact that he's been voting early... wouldn't it be a bit counterproductive esp. when it comes to voting Sally and Glirdan? I don't think (with all due respect ;) ) that Morsul is so bold to vote two of his packmates out, especially given that Nogrod was certainly not as bold. By the way, that makes me think strongly that even his other packmate was not so bold, so I'll be looking for the last Wolf probably mainly among the people who weren't very bold or downright voted somewhere "throwaway".

That would partially apply to Aganzir. Now I wonder if I should be worried.

Skip would be another option. A very good newbie Wolf, with very little suspicion and all, slipping nicely unnoticed through the crowd... Of course the question would be if he is a Wolf or a very individualistic innocent who is very reasonable and refuses to join the general bandwaggons. I think I am going to recheck him, and what he said about Nog, and vice versa, etc...

Shasta... could be something similar, also quite a lot of these "throwaway" votes.

Brinn, if she's a Wolf, would have a really Wolf-on-Wolf, or at least from Day 2 (3? Have to check if she voted Sally when there was mainly her or Glirdan already, or when there was still yet a chance to start a bandwaggon for somebody else - or on the other hand, if she didn't vote Sally when it YET didn't look like she would be necessarily voted by many at all).

Nerwen... well, that'd be basically the same as above.

Mira: ahem... okay. If she's the Wolf, I hope she is going to be modfired. As that'd certainly not be fair for all of us to lynch each other and then find out that it was her all the time.

EDIT: x-ed with Morsul
List.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, back. I didn't read deeply the Nerwen-Agan-whatnot-whatever disputes, so I am going to reread them again properly to see what was going on there. Meanwhile, comment on other posts:


This, especially the first part, I sort of don't like and am not sure about it. On my first sight, that made me alert. Is it, like, a Wolf too easily jumping on the easy lynch without joining it yet (=i.e. going to vote later and blend with the crowd once people all start voting Morsul?)


Interesting 180° turn of being understanding to Morsul, to whom you never seemed to understand at all, right at the moment he voted himself. But whatever...

Generally speaking, if I went with sort of my line of thought how it was all the time and not admitting any possibility of suddenly turning my world upside-down because of being paranoid that Nerwen, Agan or somebody might be Wolves, then I would basically seek for the Wolf between Shasta or Mira the most.

There is one reason why I think Agan might be innocent, also because I believe Greenie would have dreamed of her. I mean, have Aganzir running unchecked, I think she would have looked into that. I think now it's really a pity that she did not get to reveal her dreams to us! Unless she really dreamed only of dead people. But that sounds quite unlikely - also exactly because of what I have just said about Agan.

So now I am going to reread, then reread somehow further into the past, and then hopefully even further, and if I am not asleep by then, I will do something about it.

EDIT: x-ed since Morsul
Doesn't suspect Agan.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay and since Morsul did it, now I can say it aloud, that's exactly what I have been thinking he's going to do. The action may of course not imply anything in general if just anybody did it, but given Morsul-logic, if I try to imagine it from his perspective, it makes me think him more innocent. Maybe also Shasta, but there's a questionmark over that.

EDIT: x-ed with Agan
Claims that he knew Morsul would do that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Well I said that before among the people she might have dreamt about in the beginning, the problem is that she basically didn't proclaim anybody or almost anybody as totally clean. Well I'd have to recheck - if she kept saying some things about suspecting her also on the last Day, it's another thing. Whatever. Now I have other tasks...

Anyway, sort of generally... if I think about voting...

Not voting Mira, because she could hang around for a while yet and then be modfired if she does not participate. If she does, we can at least read something from her and see. Not going to vote her now when she hasn't been around for a while.

Not voting Morsul, said above, generally now leaning to think him innocent.

Not voting Lommy. If there is anybody innocent around here, it's her.

Not voting Agan either. I believe she is innocent. (Okay, though actually now Lommy has disputed that dream thing, so I might recheck it. Still, otherwise, not really suspecting her... or sort of "would like not to suspect her". Because I am sort of restraining myself from starting to think her a Wolf, because if she is, I am going to hate her.)

Now we are getting into the harder part.

Not voting skip? Because if he is a Wolf he would deserve it and at least we could lynch him in every consequent game? I am not really sure.

Brinniel. Nerwen. Not really suspecting either of them. Brinniel maybe even less. Actually after her last posts I think her innocent. Nerwen, I think I am getting paranoid, maybe I need to re-read some of her older posts. Her summary as made by Agan does not make me suspect her, as many of the points she brings up there are explainable to me and I don't see anything suspicious in them. But then... now not sure if the rereading is going to accomplish much, to be honest. If she is a Wolf, the only way to incriminate her is to dream of her or to find her through her packmates.

WW is not much around... his voting list speaks partially against him being a Wolf.

Does that leave Shasta... I need to re-read him as well.

EDIT: x-ed since Mira and all... okay...
Could vote for any number of people.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post

...Well. Let me make a vote count, if possible...

So just let me see toDay's votes.

Morsul -> Morsul (Morsul 1)
Nerwen -> Skip (Skip 1, Morsul 1)
Shasta -> Morsul (Morsul 2, Skip 1)
Morsul -> --Morsul (Skip 1, Morsul 1)
Morsul -> Skip (Skip 2, Morsul 1)
Agan -> Nerwen (Skip 2, Morsul 1, Nerwen 1)
skip -> Morsul (Morsul 2, Skip 2, Nerwen 1)
Mira -> Morsul (Morsul 3, Skip 2, Nerwen 1)
Lommy -> Nerwen (Morsul 3, Nerwen 2, Skip 2)

Left to vote: Lottie, Brinn and possible retractors, and winty, if he exists. And me.

Okay, given that skip might have been a Seer dream... maybe letting him live... but then what? Doesn't look like lynching Shasta (although it would be still possible, but rather theoretically). Actually now I have also reread Morsul's posting and seems I have misinterpretated it before, I thought that he re-voted for skip only after skip voted him, now I realised that it was not so (he merely suspected him and voted him after that), it might have been also the way that Morsul saw Nerwen voting skip and merrily joined, copying Nerwen's own move she used against him (or rather: he used against himself) when she was a WW in my game. But that sounds a) rather complicated, b) possibly improbable to come up with even for Morsul's surprising agency. Anyway. Need to think. I could vote Nerwen for the peace of mind, but my suspicions for her basically equal nil. Might be "worth a shot" though, if I take it the way that it's really just a shot.

Will think and be back in a minute.

EDIT: x-ed since the start of the page
Doesn't know who to vote.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
So should I say: "If you say so?"

Okay. Let's give it a shot. It makes one Day wasted at most. Since I am rather clueless otherwise and basically from the people voted for I don't want to vote skip and Morsul is not any particularly clearly better option either, here we go.

[highlight]++Nerwen[/highlight*]

This Day's been rather "sliding in the dark" for me, but then again it would be nice if we have nailed the last one and it will be done in a nice and smooth way.
Votes Nerwen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Yes, I have been thinking more or less the same.



Indeed. Let's just lynch her and get over with that - now that I have voted for her as well, I don't want it to go waste.

Good night.
Wants to lynch Nerwen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, I am here. So basically, we don't know what exactly has happened toNight and wilwa is actually not going to tell us at all. Well originally I sort of assumed that if a Ranger-save or a Cursed-turning happened, then we would be told in the narration, but since the Moddess stated otherwise, it can be anything. Whatever, I guess like somebody said we do not have much chance of unveiling it. If it was a Cursed-turning, we'd learn sooner or later, otherwise, of course the Ranger would know at least if it was a save. That said, I have been thinking whether actually some Gifteds coming out at some point wouldn't make sense, or at least later it could prove good (having lots of known innocents around, especially if Lottie is still around, and narrowing the choices a lot for us), but then on the other hand again, it would probably also narrow the choice for the Wolf to get the Cursed villager (if it has not been turned yet) and also, it would likely mean that the Unicorn would not ever be killed at all, which would basically reduce him/her to a known innocent (and his/her main importance right now is probably in that if a Wolf is stumbling at Night and killing people, that he/she accidentally kills an Unicorn and revives somebody, thus effectively negating the kill and creating a known innocent, and esp. if it returned some Greenie or something, it would be quite good).

But anyway, back to general thoughts... first in any case, I believe it wasn't clever for certain to turn around the lynch like it was yesterDay (well in general, even though I had no particularly deep suspicion for Nerwen, after I have decided to vote her, it was sort of disappointing to see "just" Morsul die, also because I was sort of "reading" him a lot better than Nerwen, who is basically enigmatic person otherwise). Sort of disappointing in that regard.

I will take a look at the yesterDay's votes now, to sort of review how it went and if there is a chance to get something out of it.

Otherwise, whatever has happened at Night, I guess since the Moddess is not giving us any hints, I think we should just continue as we go now - and if we lynch the last Wolf and the game does not end (or if later at Night something happens and we actually will be informed that the Cursed has been turned), the game will continue and then we can focus on the task there (and in such a case probably have some guidelines for finding any Wolf-interactions then). For that matter, if the Cursing did happen toNight, I would be most worried about Lommy then, as she was generally considered innocent, I believe, so I guess she would be a likely target for the Wolf. Also if this Night was missing the kill, I'd consider it more likely that the Wolf is Mira, or possibly WW (both of them sort of not being around that much - then again, however, if I were to choose, WW has quite a "clean" voting list, as I noted before). But whatever, leaving this for now.

Anyway, I am going to just review yesterDay's voting, like I said, and then hopefully post some thoughts on people in general. I guess I will focus mainly on my suspects from before, as I still think the Wolves are most likely to be among those with "uncertain voting patterns", but let's see...
Will look at votes; doesn't want to think about what happened over Night.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, so in general not very sure much could be gathered from yesterDay's votes, but I sort of did not expect much, now that we can't count on any Wolf saving a Wolf there (or voting on Wolf, for that matter). Some people voted in self-preservation, which makes sense in any case, and otherwise the bandwaggons were not that big and were rather equal in size, so it's hard to judge. I guess the main evidence for us especially now still lays in people's interactions before.

I still trust Lommy, and Aganzir (well, like I said earlier). I am still not sure about Shasta, although his yesterDay's vote does not make him look any worse to me, it does not also make it better as it basically does not say anything, and there are still his earlier relations or attitudes towards the Wolves (or their behavior towards him) which could just as well be careful unpackmating.

I am of course, after yesterDay, sort of disappointed of not lynching Nerwen, maybe now I could actually re-read her also more deeply (although in general she also makes lots of lists and that's just rather long/annoying/not informative to read). If I were to say now where we could find the remaining Wolf, I would really go for either of Shasta, Mira and Nerwen (although I'd rather re-check her first, like I said). It is sort of funny how I said that Mira originally voiced only her suspicion of Morsul (sort of "in concert" with others) and later when the bandwaggon starts rolling she will jump on it, which she exactly did in the end. It is true that she had voiced suspicion for him before that, although it was several days ago, but of course we cannot say if it might not have been just something that she found now good to use. But anyway, generally she really hasn't been around very much - so especially that way we cannot have much of information about her possible interaction with the other Wolves. Otherwise, if I were to continue elsewhere, I could think about Skip too (the old question of him being either a rather good newbie Wolf or an "individualistic innocent"); his vote yesterDay might having been joining a bandwaggon "for a good reason" (something similar could be said about Shasta's vote also), but still I am sort of thinking that Greenie might have dreamed of him. If it were not for that, I would be suspecting him probably quite a bit by now, but right now he is not seeming that likely to me. Then also WW is a possibility, but he's again rather on the far side of the line.

EDIT: okay, seems something is happening at last. X-ed since my last post.
Trusts Lommy; doesn't trust Mira.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Well, that depends on the game's mechanics. I wouldn't have thought of that, but then, I am generally used to the fact that saves and whatnot are announced in the narrations. If I was doing it, I would probably send a PM to the Ranger in reply, saying "you saved XY" if it was the case, although now given our Moddesses behavior, it seems somewhat less likely for her to act like that. But anyway, well... who knows, I say let's leave the issue for now and concentrate on the present.



As for this, I have been also wondering if we'd learn that, like, it would be nice to have a: "XXX - lynched on Day X - cursed" or something as announcement there. I guess that would make sense - but anyway... let's see.
Talks about what happened overNight. *look up*

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, I am around, I have been reading but then wasn't around as I was feeling slightly unwell for a while, but I think it should be better now. Anyway, however, I think I will just prefer to vote soon and leave after that. I think I might just as well vote for some of my earlier suspects. I don't really see very much into Agan and Nerwen's dispute, as it starts to be hazy to me and since I am basically unable to follow it, it's all back and forth and not really giving me any contributive evidence for Nerwen or Agan's guilt or innocence. It has reached the stage where it has became totally untransparent.

And after re-reading some things, I don't really think I have that much suspicion for Nerwen based on what she said earlier or stuff like that. She of all people is somebody who could have such a nice voting record as she has even if she were a Wolf, but that is just a thing meaning that she does not need to be innocent because of that, so it's a neutral statement, but not making her guilty. I think the main thing is just something like with Agan, that basically I cannot say when she's a Wolf - but that's about it or a sheer paranoia. Shasta on the other hand has rather bad voting list, which is still the same thing as I said yesterDay. Another option might be Mira, however, I am not so keen on voting her right now given her previous long absence.

That'll be it in short. I will probably go through my thoughts on everybody once again and then probably vote soon.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen, Lommy and Agans
Isn't feeling well but suspects Mira.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, so I have managed to clean my head (also literally), however the situation is basically the same as yesterDay.

So if I get down to elimination method. I am not going to vote Lottie, of course. Lommy now has made me slightly concerned given the emerging anti-Aganzir movement, however the concern is largely stemming from the fear of her being a likely target for a Wolf and thus, likely Cursed, but as there's no evidence of that, none can tell. I don't want to start to suspect Aganzir, because I know that once I will admit the possibility, I will basically have to lynch her, because there is no safety in a game she is in. Also her voting list does not help that much. However, I am trying to resist now and focus on others, as I still believe I have better grounds for suspecting other people. Brinn is in a way a case similar to Nerwen's, of all the people there I find her maybe the least suspicious, though.

Now for the harder part. I don't think I have seen WW posting much toDay, I hope it's not like having a under-the-radar newbie WW here. He is a possibility, but then again, there are possibly more suspicious people and I don't like the idea of getting too distracted as I can see once starting to sway from my originally rather clear suspects one can easily go totally into darkness. skip - basically once again, him likely being a Seer dream is the reason not to suspect him, although otherwise he might be a good Wolf - then, however, sort of deserving the credit for being rather unsuspicious. So essentially it comes down to those three again. If Nerwen seems to be the only reasonable option to vote, I might just as well finish what would have been done yesterDay. It is true that knowing her role would be rather relieving. But then again, I feel less decided about it than yesterDay, and maybe seeing more from her now will make me get a fresh better picture of her. Shasta once again does not seem to get much of a support. If Mira does, then I might vote her (even though it would have been better if she posted more, too).

EDIT: x-ed since Skip
Suspects Shasta but there's not support and suspects Mira.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, this does not make it much better. But I am not going to start thinking about Agan now.


Good point to mention, but let's not run too fast here. There is still no telling right now what exactly had happened yesterNight. Well, I could say the same to the suspicion you raised for me, though, not sure what do you mean by acting differently.

Anyway... as it does not seem like anybody willing to vote Shasta I think I will just vote Mira and go to sleep as I also start to feel rather tired and it's late anyway.

[highlight]++Mira[/highlight*]

Good night.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen, Lottie and Nerwen.
Votes Mira and doesn't really achknowledge my suspicion of him.

Conclusions: Legate looks really suspicious, actually. It's really late in the Day for this, I know, but I didn't get around to it earlier. :rolleyes:


EDIT: xed since Shasta.
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Old 04-18-2010, 07:22 PM   #889
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Silmaril

Agan -> Nerwen
Skip -> Agan
Lommy -> Agan (2)
Nerwen -> Agan (3)
Legate -> Mira
Shasta -> Mira (2)
Mira -> Skip
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Old 04-18-2010, 07:23 PM   #890
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mirandir View Post
Just got back from dinner with the parents. Took way longer than expected, meaning not enough time to do analysis.

While my internet was being shoddy, I was pondering Agan and Legate. However, I don't really have anything to justify those suspicions at the moment because BUS INTERNET SUCKS and I couldn't actually look at anything. I don't feel comfortable voting for either of them with that in mind, especially Agan. Skip's vote looks bandwaggonish. My vote's going to be a throwaway and I'm really upset with myself for having to do that this late in the game. I'll make it up to people if I'm still alive toMorrow.

[highlight]++skip[/highlight*]

Ugh.
Iiiinteresting. Light wolf-on-wolf? Mira + Legate pack? *ponders*

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
I'd really like to lynch Nerwen, but someone else has to vote her too in order for that to happen...

Almost 10 minutes until deadline. Where is everyone?
Here I am!

EDIT: xed with Miss Moddess.
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Old 04-18-2010, 07:26 PM   #891
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Are you voting Legate then? Though that'd be a throwaway...

I really hope you don't vote based on possible packs. Because we don't even know if there is one.
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Old 04-18-2010, 07:27 PM   #892
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As a Legate-lynch is unlikely so late in the Day, I'll go...

++Mira

Because she looks suspicious.

EDIT: xed with Brinn, and I forgot: I also don't want Agan to die.
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Old 04-18-2010, 07:28 PM   #893
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Old 04-18-2010, 07:30 PM   #894
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++Nerwen

Bah, this is annoying. I really hope Agan is the wolf then..

If I'm dead by toMorrow, please LYNCH NERWEN. Well, unless Agan turns out to be a wolf...
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Old 04-18-2010, 07:31 PM   #895
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Oh crap, Mira's going? I'd rather see Agan go, though not enough to retract...

Looks like an easy lynch. Mira's been busy in RL. I do NOT like how winty keeps coming out of nowhere to vote.
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Old 04-18-2010, 07:34 PM   #896
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Silmaril

Agan -> Nerwen
Skip -> Agan
Lommy -> Agan (2)
Nerwen -> Agan (3)
Legate -> Mira
Shasta -> Mira (2)
Mira -> Skip
Lottie -> Mira (3)
Winty -> Mira (4)
Brinn -> Nerwen (2)

Mira is dead. She was Ordinary.

Narration will be up later. You can expect spoons and tea to be involved.
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Old 04-19-2010, 05:18 PM   #897
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Silmaril

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Alirin walked and walked and walked. She wasn’t sure really where she was, or how far she was from the blue door, if she was going in a circle or not, the path went in all sort of directions so she really had no idea of where she could be heading. Finally after a long time of not seeing anything but trees and flowers she saw something extremely familiar.

Alirin walked up to the March Hare’s home and looked at the long table. The *teapot* was still sitting in the same spot and the Hatter was still face down in his cup. However the March Hare was no longer at the table, he was sitting on his door step. All around him on the ground he had cups and teapots and biscuits. He was drinking a large cup of tea while also pouring sugar into a flower bed beside him and jittering nervously to himself.

Alirin sat down on the ground facing him and tried to find a clean cup to have some tea as well.

“Have some wine.” he offered trying to smile at her, though it looked rather twitchy.

Alirin looked around. “I don’t see any wine.”

“There isn’t any.” he replied. Alirin was about to say something about how uncivil that was but chose not too because of the Hare’s fragile state. Alirin sat quietly for a time as the Hare mumbled “twinkle, twinkle, twinkle” over and over again while wringing his long ears.

“He’s gone even madder!” Alirin thought to herself, “Though considering his friends died it is not surprising.” This thought she had also made her wonder why she hadn’t yet gone mad, considering all the death she had witness in Wonderland. Though the Cat had told her she was already mad, perhaps he had been right.

As she continued to contemplate her madness the Hare had now started eating a plum cake and was saying “best butter, best butter” over and over to himself.
Alirin began to grow bored of the Hare, who was clearly going bonkers and was not in the mood for conversation. But she was tired of walking and decided to sit a while longer.

“How are you feeling Mr. Hare?” she decided to ask him. He jumped at the sound of her voice and looked at her wide eyed, as though he had forgotten she was there the whole time.

“I didn’t steal anything.” he said.

“I said feel, not steal.” she said, being sure to annunciate clearly.

“I don’t like eels.” the Hare said, shaking his head very quickly and looking closely at his spoon.

Alirin decided to give up, and was about to get up and leave when the Hare got up first. She thought he might go inside his home, but instead he started to climb up it. In no time at all he was sitting on top of his roof with a teapot and his plum cake. This behaviour was just too odd for Alirin to ignore.

“Mr. Hare, I have to insist that you come back down!” she hollered up to him. He looked at her startled again. “He really keeps forgetting I’m here!” she thought to herself. This time he was so terrified by her presence that he begun pacing quickly back and forth while talking to his teapot about butter and bats, and eventually he was going so fast that he lost his balanced and tumbled off the back of his house.

Surprisingly Alirin was not surprised by this, since it had become rather normal for everyone in her presence to perish suddenly. So she once again started to walk back down the path, wondering if anyone would ever survive more than five minutes in her presence.

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Dead
Fea - Red Queen - Cobbler - lynched Day 1
Boro - the Caterpillar - Shirriff - killed Night 2
Sally - the Dormouse - Wolf - lynched Day 2
Izzy - White Rabbit - Ordinary - killed Night 3
Glirdan - Mad Hatter - Wolf - lynched Day 3
Greenie - White Night - Seer - killed Night 4
Nogrod – Cheshire Cat – Wolf – lynched Day 4
Nienna - White Queen - Hunter - killed Night 5
Inzil - King of Hearts - Ordinary - hunter killed Night 5
Morsul - Mock Turtle - Ordinary - lynched Day 5
Mira - March Hare - Ordinary - lynched Day 6

Alive
Wintywinty – Tweedledum
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Lottie – Duchess
Nerwen – the Dodo
Legate – Jabberwocky
Skip – Humpty Dumpty
Lommy – the Gryphon
Brinniel – Tweedledee

It is still Night 7.
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Old 04-19-2010, 07:22 PM   #898
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Silmaril Day 7

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Alirin walked down the path feeling greatly depressed. She decided she had to do something to cheer herself up. After a few moments of thought she decided that skipping would do the trick. She skipped down the path for a few moments and really started to feel much happier. This is when she saw a long wall up ahead and an egg sitting on top. As she got closer to it she could see that this egg had a face and arms and legs and knew that it had to be Humpty Dumpty himself.

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall

“Tell me your name and your business.” he said to her as she stopped in front of him.

“My name is Alirin.”

“That’s a stupid enough name!” Humpty Dumpty said, “What does it mean?”

“Must a name mean something?” Alirin asked.

“Of course it must!” Humpty said, “My name means the shape I am, and a good handsome shape it is! With a name like yours, you might be any shape!”

“Why do you sit here all alone?” Alirin asked, not wishing to start an argument.

“Why, because there’s nobody with me!” cried Humpty Dumpty.

Humpty Dumpty had a great fall

“Don’t you think you’d be safer on the ground? You could fall off.” she asked him.

“Of course I would not! Now if I ever did fall off – which would never happen – but IF I were to, why the king has promised me, with his very own mouth, that he would –“

“Send all his horses and all his men.” Alirin finished.

All the kings horses and all the kings men

“Why, I declare!” Humpty Dumpty declared, “You’ve been listening at doors, and behind trees, and down chimneys, or else you wouldn’t have known that!”

“What a nice belt you have!”Alirin remarked, ignoring the accusation that she eavesdropped.

“Thank you. It was a un-birthday present from the White King and Queen.” he answered, looking rather proud when he mentioned the royals.

“What is a un-birthday present?” Alirin asked.

“Clearly, it is a present you receive on a day that is not your birthday.” he answered.

“I think I prefer birthday presents.” Alirin responded.

“Well, that is ridiculous. How many days of the year is it your birthday?” he asked.

“One.” she responded.

“How many days are there in a year?” Humpty Dumpty questioned, crossing his arms and leaning forward. Alirin was sure he’d fall off at any moment.

“Three hundred and sixty five, of course.” she replied.

“So therefore, how many days are there that are not your birthday?” he asked.

“Three hundred and sixty four.” she answered.

“So then there are three hundred and sixty four days to get un-birthday presents, and only one day to get a birthday present, making un-birthday presents much better.”

Alirin didn’t want to argue so she asked Humpty Dumpty if there was anything special about the belt.

“Why yes, in fact there is.” he answered. “It helps me protect people!”

“From what?” she asked.

“Various things that people would need protecting from, of course!” Humpty Dumpty answered, looking very proud. Suddenly he lost his balance, just as she had been predicting, and came tumbling to the ground into a hundreds of little pieces.

Couldn’t put Humpty together again

Alirin continued down the path once more, not in the mood for skipping any longer.

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Dead
Fea - Red Queen - Cobbler - lynched Day 1
Boro - the Caterpillar - Shirriff - killed Night 2
Sally - the Dormouse - Wolf - lynched Day 2
Izzy - White Rabbit - Ordinary - killed Night 3
Glirdan - Mad Hatter - Wolf - lynched Day 3
Greenie - White Night - Seer - killed Night 4
Nogrod – Cheshire Cat – Wolf – lynched Day 4
Nienna - White Queen - Hunter - killed Night 5
Inzil - King of Hearts - Ordinary - hunter killed Night 5
Morsul - Mock Turtle - Ordinary - lynched Day 5
Mira - March Hare - Ordinary - lynched Day 6
Skip - Humpty Dumpty - Ranger - killed Night 7

Alive
Wintywinty – Tweedledum
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Lottie – Duchess
Nerwen – the Dodo
Legate – Jabberwocky
Lommy – the Gryphon
Brinniel – Tweedledee

It is now Day 7. Yes you can post a bit early.
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Old 04-19-2010, 07:33 PM   #899
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Oh, Gumdrop Buttons, and another list!

I trust:
Me.

I mostly trust:
Agan
Shasta
Brinn

I don't know about:
WW
Lommy

I suspect:
Nerwen
Legate

I want a Legate lynch. I may settle for a Nerwen lynch, but only if there is absolutely no chance of a Legate lynch.

And I don't think Legate was the Cursed, I think he was always a wolf. If there is a Cursed, I think it's Nerwen, which is why I want Legate lynched first.
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Old 04-19-2010, 07:37 PM   #900
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Alright, can I just say that Brinn isn't the only one who is really bothered by winty's fly-by voting?

Back with more a bit later, probably on Legate/Nerwen/Agan or thereabouts. I really don't think we can afford to keep ignoring winty for long, though.
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Last edited by Shastanis Althreduin; 04-19-2010 at 07:38 PM. Reason: X'ed with Lottie.
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Old 04-19-2010, 07:43 PM   #901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
Alright, can I just say that Brinn isn't the only one who is really bothered by winty's fly-by voting?

Back with more a bit later, probably on Legate/Nerwen/Agan or thereabouts. I really don't think we can afford to keep ignoring winty for long, though.
Agreed about WW; he's getting rather worrisome.
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Old 04-19-2010, 08:04 PM   #902
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So, skip was our ranger. You know, I can't imagine ranger is an easy role for a newbie to play....skip did a decent job of laying low, until now at least. And he did especially good if he managed a save (which we still don't know).

Btw, I told you Mira was an easy lynch. Silly people. Seriously though, these last two Days have had pretty lousy lynch choices, in my opinion.

Can we please lynch Nerwen toDay? I still find her suspicious and whatever her role may be, knowing it will at least ease my mind. Okay, I promise to try looking at others too to see if anyone else turns up more suspicious, but I really don't have much time toDay.

Also, if Lottie is still alive, does this mean our wolf is still looking for the cursed? Or maybe he/she wants us to think that way. Or perhaps Lottie is so off in her suspicions, that it's actually better to keep her alive. Just speculating here.

As for winty, I don't like how he's voting out of nowhere, but I'm just wondering if that's just poor innocent behaviour rather than wolfish. While his voting makes me uneasy, I don't think he's worth lynching toDay at least...possibly another easy lynch.

Btw, we have two Days to get this right if the cursed is out there, three if it's just one wolf. We're so close and I would just hate it if we lost now.
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Old 04-19-2010, 08:54 PM   #903
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
Can we please lynch Nerwen toDay? I still find her suspicious and whatever her role may be, knowing it will at least ease my mind. Okay, I promise to try looking at others too to see if anyone else turns up more suspicious, but I really don't have much time toDay.
I wouldn't object to a Nerwen-lynch. As I've said, I'd prefer a Legate-lynch, but Nerwen's my second choice.

Quote:
Also, if Lottie is still alive, does this mean our wolf is still looking for the cursed? Or maybe he/she wants us to think that way. Or perhaps Lottie is so off in her suspicions, that it's actually better to keep her alive. Just speculating here.
Or the wolves guessed that the Ranger would protect me - after all, with the Cursed turned, they'd have no reason not to kill me (known innocent that I am) and so went after the Ranger instead, maybe.
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Old 04-19-2010, 08:59 PM   #904
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
I want a Legate lynch. I may settle for a Nerwen lynch, but only if there is absolutely no chance of a Legate lynch.

And I don't think Legate was the Cursed, I think he was always a wolf. If there is a Cursed, I think it's Nerwen, which is why I want Legate lynched first.
Is this because I played differently yesterDay? I was just tired and exasperated, Lottie. I'm annoyed at myself now. Defending yourself strongly– yes, even if you're innocent– is usually a mistake, and one I shouldn't have made. (In fact forcing an innocent to defend himself until he looked suspicious used to be a very popular wolf-tactic, though it seems to have fallen out of favour recently.)

What I'm concerned about now is that your willingness to accept me as a backup lynch is going to make it very hard to get a wolf toDay, since it seems I'm almost guaranteed votes from Agan and Brinn anyway.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
So, skip was our ranger. You know, I can't imagine ranger is an easy role for a newbie to play....skip did a decent job of laying low, until now at least. And he did especially good if he managed a save (which we still don't know).
I wonder if he did? I mean if Wilwa would have let him know?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
Can we please lynch Nerwen toDay? I still find her suspicious and whatever her role may be, knowing it will at least ease my mind. Okay, I promise to try looking at others too to see if anyone else turns up more suspicious, but I really don't have much time toDay.
I don't know what to say, Brinniel. I'm not a wolf, and it's getting too late in the game to lynch people "to ease your mind" (cf Mira). I answered the case against me yesterDay in full, but if that won't satisfy you there's nothing more I can say.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
Also, if Lottie is still alive, does this mean our wolf is still looking for the cursed? Or maybe he/she wants us to think that way. Or perhaps Lottie is so off in her suspicions, that it's actually better to keep her alive. Just speculating here.
It could be any of those things– though I wonder if the wolf/ves suspected Skip's role?

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.
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Old 04-19-2010, 09:32 PM   #905
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Originally Posted by Nerwen View Post
Is this because I played differently yesterDay? I was just tired and exasperated, Lottie. I'm annoyed at myself now. Defending yourself strongly– yes, even if you're innocent– is usually a mistake, and one I shouldn't have made. (In fact forcing an innocent to defend himself until he looked suspicious used to be a very popular wolf-tactic, though it seems to have fallen out of favour recently.)

What I'm concerned about now is that your willingness to accept me as a backup lynch is going to make it very hard to get a wolf toDay, since it seems I'm almost guaranteed votes from Agan and Brinn anyway.



I wonder if he did? I mean if Wilwa would have let him know?



I don't know what to say, Brinniel. I'm not a wolf, and it's getting too late in the game to lynch people "to ease your mind" (cf Mira). I answered the case against me yesterDay in full, but if that won't satisfy you there's nothing more I can say.



It could be any of those things– though I wonder if the wolf/ves suspected Skip's role?

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.
But now this post looks innocent again.

Okay. I'll shoot for Legate-lynch and come back to Nerwen when I have a clearer idea of what she is.
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Old 04-19-2010, 11:25 PM   #906
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, this does not make it much better. But I am not going to start thinking about Agan now.
Here he brings up slight suspicion of Agan but at the same time backs away. As Agan was one of the top bandwaggons of yesterDay, this is strangely not committed. Usually you have some opionion of the bandwaggons, and dont' want to say "I am not going to start thinking about her now".

Quote:
Good point to mention, but let's not run too fast here. There is still no telling right now what exactly had happened yesterNight. Well, I could say the same to the suspicion you raised for me, though, not sure what do you mean by acting differently.
You're right, you weren't. I just hadn't noticed that you were suspicious before. And he keeps throwing doubt onto the Cursed theory. If the Cursed was turned, the wolves wouldn't want us to know that, because it confuses us and keeps important knowledge away from us. When I was turned in Sally's game, I was really hoping that no one figured it out.

Quote:
Anyway... as it does not seem like anybody willing to vote Shasta I think I will just vote Mira and go to sleep as I also start to feel rather tired and it's late anyway.

++Mira

Good night.
And then he votes Mira (another bandwaggon) because "it does not seem like anybody was willing to vote Shasta." Suspicious much?
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Old 04-20-2010, 02:03 AM   #907
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Gah, I'm sort of annoyed at the turn this game has taken. The two last lynches have been very stupid and lazy in my opinion, and now we lost Skippy, one of the few I really trusted (and who even turned out to be our ranger). I was sort of hoping I'd get killed instead because the game is starting to make me frustrated...

Well I guess there are good sides to Skip's death too - now the possibility of a very likely seer-dream semi-known innocent turning evil is eliminated and now anybody won't waste a lynch on him...

Just if you get Winty lynched toDay I will probably give up and quit, or alternatively stay awake until 4-5 am (whenever the DL exactly is my time) and make sure you lynch somebody really suspicious... grr. Okay, sorry about that rant, now I'm off to read and comment yesterDay and toDay.
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Old 04-20-2010, 02:26 AM   #908
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
Because that's the option that makes the most sense to me. The wolves/wolf have/had probably been trying to find the cursed, and so it makes sense that they did.
And why does that make a ranger save any less likely? Or the wolf having a busy weekend? Your conclusions lay on shaky grounds.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
Conclusions: Legate looks really suspicious, actually.
...why? I don't see that you had any points against him anywhere in your analysis and then you just conslude he's suspicious. Also, before you wanted to nail him as cursed and once Brinn criticised your methods, you went on to "prove" he was actually one of the original wolves. Is it certain we can't have a Cursed Shiriff?

Pretty much agree on everything in Brinn's post #902, although Nerwen also has a point against mind-easing lynches. I would actually like to ask: who do you Nerwen suspect?

Well whatever the case, I still think the last wolf is Nerwen or Agan. Could be Legate, but Lottie's case against him just seems so silly that I can't bring myself to seriously suspect him until he does something really suspicious. Theoretically, Winty could also be the last wolf but I wouldn't put my money on that because lynching him would again be quite a shot in the dark.

I could have a look at stuff but I'm not sure if it's of any use. Nerwen and Agan have both been analysed before with little results. The wolves' interactions with everybody have been gone through (and not like I'd do something so big right now, I don't have the time). There seems little unused evidence, except maybe that the remaining wolf's kill own choices have been Nienna, something we don't know and Skippy... Off to do stuff and think about that a bit.
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Old 04-20-2010, 02:51 AM   #909
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Okay, what do the kill choices tell?

- Nienna wasn't suspected, Skip was a little. (But there were people who were suspected less, for example Brinn and me - why isn't one of us dead?)
- Both dead were gifteds. (Which could lead you to say that the wolf is a good gifted-spotter, but it's unlikely a wolf would intentionally kill the hunter.)
- Skip was believed to be the seer-dream target by some. (So could we assume the wolf believed that, either publicly or secretly and thus killed him in hopes of getting a cursed some villagers would definitely trust? Or did s/he notice his giftedness? Or did s/he have some other motive?)

Conclusions? Well, there really isn't much of a pattern. I think Nienna was killed merely for being rather no-trace and considered innocent by very many. As for Skip, I'm tempted to say he made a save the Night before last Night and the wolf killed him in hopes of getting the cursed. This is quite hopeful thinking, but I think trying to get the cursed is the most believeable motive the wolf could've had for killing him (unless s/he has a much better gifted radar than me, which is possible especially as his/hers would be far more activated than mine).

I would also be tempted to believe the wolf is a loudmouth who wants to keep similar kind of players around in order not to stand out. Or then it's someone - loudmouth or not - who knows that it's the easiest to let loudmouths argue with each other, which only leaves Winty as a newbie out, and given his votes have been rather random this far, it's difficult to try to conclude what kind of kills he'd have made.

I'm off now to sign a tenancy agreement, go to the library and visit two museums, but I'll be back in some hours. Hopefully someone has posted something more by that time...
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Old 04-20-2010, 03:23 AM   #910
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Alright... I have very little time to post today, just letting you know.

Did skip say anything obviously ranger looking yesterday? Because if he thwarted the wolf's kill the previous night, I don't think the wolf would've gone after anybody else last night without a very good reason... Which makes it maybe a bit more likely that either the cursed was turned, or the wolf missed a kill.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
I really don't think we can afford to keep ignoring winty for long, though.
I'm bothered by his votes too. It doesn't take so much to contribute, really. But unlike you I think we can afford to ignore him if he doesn't do anything but vote and disappear. Lynching him now and finding him innocent would be bad for us, and it can always be argued whether a one post a day -wolf deserves to win.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
I still find her suspicious and whatever her role may be, knowing it will at least ease my mind.
It's too late to lynch somebody because knowing their roles will ease your mind. We should get a lynch today.

And to be honest I'm somewhat worried about how some people seem to think "we lynch Nerwen first and if she isn't a wolf, then go for Agan." If Nerwen isn't a wolf, then it's way too easy for the wolf/wolves to get two innocents lynched without much effort of their own... Yes I still suspect Nerwen but I'm getting paranoid and don't want to concentrate on her alone.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
Also, if Lottie is still alive, does this mean our wolf is still looking for the cursed?
Or maybe Lottie is a goner now that the ranger died - for all the wolf knows, the ranger might have protected the known innocent every second night.

I'm starting to feel uneasy about Brinn too... Nothing to back it up, she's just creepy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
we have two Days to get this right if the cursed is out there, three if it's just one wolf.
Yes but because of the retractions, I would say we have one day. If the cursed has been turned, it'll be 2-4 tomorrow, and both wolves might have their retractions left (everybody but Nerwen & I has theirs). And they can use them to lynch an innocent if opportunity arises.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie on Legate
As Agan was one of the top bandwaggons of yesterDay, this is strangely not committed.
I think he's been doing that with almost every lynch thus far (at least as far as I can recall), both with wolves and innocents... But I agree it's strange of Legate to be so non-committing. The Legate (both wolf & innocent) I'm used to is... different.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
it's unlikely a wolf would intentionally kill the hunter
I don't think so. If the wolf wants to win, the hunter has to die sooner or later and the sooner, the better. Not sure if she really spotted Nienna though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
As for Skip, I'm tempted to say he made a save the Night before last Night and the wolf killed him in hopes of getting the cursed.
???
If he made a save, why didn't the wolf go for the one she had tried to kill? Which can obviously not be skip as the ranger couldn't protect himself.

There were some things I wanted to comment on yesterday but I don't have time for it now... Anyway Lommy's logic that my "horrible voting record isn't very convincing" is downright lousy, she KNOWS that if I was a wolf I would've done much better at spotting my fellows.
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Old 04-20-2010, 05:03 AM   #911
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir
Did skip say anything obviously ranger looking yesterday? Because if he thwarted the wolf's kill the previous night, I don't think the wolf would've gone after anybody else last night without a very good reason... Which makes it maybe a bit more likely that either the cursed was turned, or the wolf missed a kill.
I can see a way Team Evil might have picked him out. Remember that strange argument he made yesterDay, (#809, #812 and #823) insisting that my switching my vote to Morsul was suspect? (His reasoning being that an innocent would not want to waste a retraction on saving herself(!))

There's some interesting lines (bolded) in two of those posts.

#812.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Skip
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
Do you really not see the contradiction between these two paragraphs, Skip?
There's no direct contradiction. I said you'd likely survive even without the retraction.

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

However, if you are a wolf, the consequences of getting lynched then would have been the greatest imaginable: the game would be instantly lost. There would be no comfort-zone to take chances.
#823.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Skip
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel
Not necessarily. I've seen innocents retract to save themselves before.
Yes but when when Nerwen retracted she was on 3 and Morsul on 5 with one person left to vote - you, who'd vote Nerwen. In other words, at that time it would take your vote plus another retraction from a third person to get her lynched. That could've happened, but wasn't very likely.

My point is, this risk to be lynched would seem more bearable for an innocent, because even if unfortune strikes, her team would still be in a good, if slightly worsened position. A wolf on the other hand would be desperate not to get lynched, because it would mean the End. Ergo, a wolf would imo have the strongest motivation to make that retraction move, without saying that an innocent couldn't do the same.
Now, leaving aside the fact that this is pretty silly– what good is having a retraction left when you're dead?– it also ignores the fact that at that point there was one innocent who had a particularly strong motive for wanting to stay alive, and whose death would have been a blow to the village. In other words, his entire argument rests on the assumption that I'm not the Ranger. Who could be sure of that? The Ranger.

Wolves tend to notice that kind of thing, even when the village doesn't.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir View Post
And to be honest I'm somewhat worried about how some people seem to think "we lynch Nerwen first and if she isn't a wolf, then go for Agan." If Nerwen isn't a wolf, then it's way too easy for the wolf/wolves to get two innocents lynched without much effort of their own... Yes I still suspect Nerwen but I'm getting paranoid and don't want to concentrate on her alone.
Mmn. Well, I really don't know about you either way, Agan– and I can see points against you, all right– but all the same I think it might be useful to see where this "one of them must be a wolf" meme comes from, and/or who has been helping it along.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir View Post
I'm starting to feel uneasy about Brinn too... Nothing to back it up, she's just creepy.
Maybe the bit you already quoted?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
As for Skip, I'm tempted to say he made a save the Night before last Night and the wolf killed him in hopes of getting the cursed.
???
If he made a save, why didn't the wolf go for the one she had tried to kill? Which can obviously not be skip as the ranger couldn't protect himself.
See my points above for how the wolf could have picked him as the Ranger... but Lommy's point still doesn't make sense.

By the way, it says in the rules that the Ranger can self-protect once, so in theory Skip could have saved himself on the night of no-kill. That seems unlikely, however.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir
Anyway Lommy's logic that my "horrible voting record isn't very convincing" is downright lousy, she KNOWS that if I was a wolf I would've done much better at spotting my fellows.
Yes, but since you've been a major exponent of the "good voting is really bad voting" school, wouldn't an Aganwolf want to vote badly?

EDIT:fixed quotes and formatting.
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Old 04-20-2010, 06:07 AM   #912
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Alright, I'm here, I have other work to do now, but I'll try to be around. A few comments for now:

As for skip's death - maybe, since he was the Ranger, it might be worth to try to see if, by any slight chance, he did not say anything yesterDay which might have given his role away. For that matter, it would be also interesting to see if there isn't anything which would lighten us on whether he perchance did not have a save yesterDay. Although, as it's been said, it may be quite likely that he himself has not been informed whether he made a save or not. But if there was something, maybe that might have been a reason for the Wolf to target him? Can't think of anything else right now.

Otherwise, I think we are getting sort of into the stage of losing the focus. I am really starting to reconsider whether if we had lynched Nerwen three Days ago, this game would've been done already. Anyway, also, if the Cursed has not been turned already, the chances are growing and eventually it might be a rather crucial moment if that happens (especially now without the Ranger!).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
As for Skip, I'm tempted to say he made a save the Night before last Night and the wolf killed him in hopes of getting the cursed. This is quite hopeful thinking, but I think trying to get the cursed is the most believeable motive the wolf could've had for killing him (unless s/he has a much better gifted radar than me, which is possible especially as his/hers would be far more activated than mine).
One more idea. Would the Seer see the Cursed as innocent? Because in that case, if there is this generally believed theory of skip being a dreamt-of innocent, it would be quite convinient for the Wolf to try to get him, even more in the case that later e.g. Greenie was revived and confirmed his dreamed innocence (and thus nobody would suspect him at all).

As for what's been said about winty, I think it comes down to this general dilemma of having somebody who is not around basically at all... I would really like to see him around more and not just popping in and out with voting for the person who's being currently lynched.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir View Post
If he made a save, why didn't the wolf go for the one she had tried to kill? Which can obviously not be skip as the ranger couldn't protect himself.
Although now I see what Agan says, which is also true... hmm, well I guess then one more reason for me to look at whether skip said something yesterDay which could have looked Ranger-ish. Because in the case of the Ranger save, the Wolf only would know what happened (he/she would know if he/she sent the kill, and if there was no Cursed, then the only explanation left would be the Ranger save). It's possible that in such circumstances, the Wolf would go to eliminate the threat just to be on the safe side - but that assumes knowing who the Ranger is. (At least it is the one thing that makes sense to me.)

EDIT: okay, seems Nerwen actually had gone through some skip...
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Old 04-20-2010, 06:15 AM   #913
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I can see a way Team Evil might have picked him out. Remember that strange argument he made yesterDay, (#809, #812 and #823) insisting that my switching my vote to Morsul was suspect? (His reasoning being that an innocent would not want to waste a retraction on saving herself(!))
(...)
Now, leaving aside the fact that this is pretty silly– what good is having a retraction left when you're dead?– it also ignores the fact that at that point there was one innocent who had a particularly strong motive for wanting to stay alive, and whose death would have been a blow to the village. In other words, his entire argument rests on the assumption that I'm not the Ranger. Who could be sure of that? The Ranger.

Wolves tend to notice that kind of thing, even when the village doesn't.
Okay, this is an interesting observation. It seems a bit complicated to me, although now from the point of view of knowing that skip was the Ranger, it makes sense to see it like that. But I don't think it would be so obvious if you don't know who he is. Of course, it depends.

Now, of course, I could start wondering whether Nerwolf would be so bold to share such a reasoning with people so merrily if it was what she did, although especially in her case, I would not find it impossible to be bold like that. But anyway - in either case, it's an interesting theory (although still I think a bit far-fetched in general). I am going to look at skip a bit myself now.
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Old 04-20-2010, 06:22 AM   #914
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Regarding wintywinty...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
Alright, can I just say that Brinn isn't the only one who is really bothered by winty's fly-by voting?

Back with more a bit later, probably on Legate/Nerwen/Agan or thereabouts. I really don't think we can afford to keep ignoring winty for long, though.
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Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
Agreed about WW; he's getting rather worrisome.
But what are you two actually agreeing about? As I've said already said, it's kind of late in the game for a "just-in-case" lynch. This is probably the last Day we could lynch him to see what he is... and look how well that's been working.

EDIT:X'd with two Legates.
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Old 04-20-2010, 06:50 AM   #915
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Me
–Now, why does that entire post of Legate's give me a bad feeling?
To answer my own question:

I think it's because, with 20/20 hindsight, that was quite an obvious slip on the part of our Ranger. My feeling is that an innocent's reaction would be to say, "Oh yes, that must be it," or at least "I wouldn't be surprised", whereas when you're a wolf and have eaten someone for what were to you perfectly sound and logical reason, the theories the villagers come up with often seem completely out the window.

With that in mind, Legate's last couple of posts could fit the pattern of a Legwolf going "Huh?" at the "outlandish" motives I'd ascribed to him, then realising it was actually in his best interests to play along.

Of course this is all extremely subjective and depends entirely on assumptions about how people would act, whether the Cursed has been found or not, etc. So I'm not claiming it's a particularly useful observation, or anything.

EDIT: IMPORTANT THIS POST WAS MADE AFTER LEGATE's AT #916. CANNOT EXPLAIN THIS!
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Old 04-20-2010, 06:52 AM   #916
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Okay, so looking through skip's posts, I am not really sure how much he could have been perceived as Ranger. There is however one thing not from yesterDay, but from the Day before, which maybe in connection to the thing mentioned by Nerwen could make him look Ranger-y:
Quote:
Originally Posted by skip spence View Post
Alright.

++Morsul

Better him than me (apart from what I've already said)!
And then the next Day:
Quote:
Originally Posted by skip spence View Post
Interesting to note is that Nerwen uses her retraction "to save herself" although this in fact was not as vital as I first thought. When Nerwen re-voted Morsul was on 5 votes while Nerwen was on 3 with only Brinn left to vote, so even without the retraction she'd likely have survived.
Which is sort of in contradiction, would-be showing that Skip applies different rules on himself than on others ("better him than me" vs. the latter). It's sort of questionable as there were still many people left to vote back then when skip voted, but then again, if he was leaving and not expecting to vote after that... but there is also the other thing Nerwen mentioned, and now actually seeing it it looks a bit more "there is something more important than being innocent"-knowing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by skip spence View Post
If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

However, if you are a wolf, the consequences of getting lynched then would have been the greatest imaginable: the game would be instantly lost. There would be no comfort-zone to take chances.
And, of course, speaking of that, his sort of general opposition for Agan's wasting-retractions theory is even a lot more reasonable now: he obviously had personal interest in keeping his retraction, as saving himself might have been crucial if necessary. On the other hand, yesterDay he used his retraction in circumstances where he wasn't threatened (he retracted from Nerwen to Agan), so one would think that would've spoken sort of against him being the Ranger. But who knows.

Anyway, it does not seem to me that there would be anything in his posts pointing towards the knowledge whether he made a save yesterNight or not. Well, I guess no can do.

So... I'll be off now for a moment, but will try to stay updated and then be back to contribute something more.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen
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Old 04-20-2010, 06:56 AM   #917
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Originally Posted by Nerwen View Post
Whether what I've suggested was, in fact the lupine motivation for killing Skip I couldn't say. However, I don't see why you call it "far fetched" or "complicated", Legate. As I said, the wolf would have been looking for slips like that.
Well, it just seemed to me far-fetched, but as you see, now that I have looked at skip's posts myself, I don't find it so far-fetched anymore. It was rather that it seemed like rather random comments, but now seeing that it was basically all that skip said yesterDay, I could very well imagine a Wolf spotting him, if he/she was paying attention to looking for the Ranger (which probably is a thing a Wolf would do).
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Old 04-20-2010, 07:08 AM   #918
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Just popping in quickly between two classes...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
I can see a way Team Evil might have picked him out.
Hmm I assume that's possible... But would it be enough to make them attack him instead of a sure kill, assuming he had protected somebody? After all he could've ignored the chance of your being a ranger just because he was a newbie, not because he was the ranger himself.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
By the way, it says in the rules that the Ranger can self-protect once
Originally, it did. However in the updated rules it was changed. Thanks to me I guess, sorry skip!
Quote:
1 Ranger: can’t protect the same person 2 Nights in a row, and cannot protect themselves.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
Yes, but since you've been a major exponent of the "good voting is really bad voting" school, wouldn't an Aganwolf want to vote badly?
Haha I might try that some time I'm a wolf... But all in all it's generally too risky. And good voting is not always bad voting, it depends on the person and their reasons for voting a wolf.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Would the Seer see the Cursed as innocent?
Yes, as it reads in the rules. And I suppose it's also possible skip was killed, well, for being innocent-looking enough.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
whether Nerwolf would be so bold to share such a reasoning with people so merrily if it was what she did
Yeah she would... But she would do it as innocent too so it doesn't really tell us anything about her role.

Nerwen has been looking rather innocent today but I'm not convinced of her innocence... She if anybody could pull it off.

And yeah I don't want to push anybody, but if the Unicorn came out we'd have two known innocents and fewer potential wolves...

Okie dokie class time for me.
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Old 04-20-2010, 08:59 AM   #919
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I will be here for the next half an hour or so... but it might well be the last you hear from me today because I'm seeing a friend after that and a) she might kill me if I tried to play werewolf and b) her net connection is extremely bad.

And just in case I don't get back I should probably vote soon, which I don't like at all.

Anybody around?
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Old 04-20-2010, 09:17 AM   #920
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As for Skip, well, I must admit my theory regarding the ranger save was stupid, I'm sorry I didn't think it through. The evidence indeed points to the cursed being turned, which is something I don't like at all. Or the wolf could've missed a kill (especially if it's Nerwen the infamous DL-misser ).

As for her, I don't like her commentary on Skip's death at all. She even herself said a wolf would pay attention to such stuff, and that's exactly what she did. It just seems too far-fetchedly precise to be innocent.

And Agan, don't try to convince me you would certainly have a different voting record as a wolf. I don't doubt your ability to throw your fellows under the bus, but I also know that you are one to make risky moves - and not voting Sally or Glirdan would be one.

There's something eerie about Legate's few recent posts. He doesn't even bother to acknowledge the points against him, and he uses his time in looking at Skip's posts and basically saying nothing about them... Don't like it at all.

I'm here for a while now and I will come back for a short second later although I really should be sleeping then...
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Last edited by Thinlómien; 04-20-2010 at 09:20 AM. Reason: xed with Agan
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