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Old 05-05-2020, 04:40 AM   #81
Kath
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Well, two pages by this time isn't as bad as I thought it might be! This working from home malarkey means I can actually get on here at a normal time as well and have time to read everything instead of frantically skimming through it all in the last few hours. Whether that will be of any help though remains to be seen!

Caveat to that: I'm doing this amidst school work so I started at 9:45 and will simply keep refreshing as I go. Goodness only knows what time it will be when it gets posted!

I have just been reading through the rules post on the discussion thread as I saw there had been some questions about particular rules on the way through. There are some really intriguing bits!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod
There is a kind of a secondary victory condition as well. If the Villagers manage to keep Lalaith safe, they get a lot of credit and can prize themselves for keeping up the cause of beauty and goodness in this dark and evil world. This concerns the QT especially as players there already know their characters and should be more concerned also about that side of the story.
Am I right that the Innocent Child and Lalaith are the same role? I don't think I've played with that role before. Also I love the idea of a secondary story going on behind the scenes.

There's been some talk about Cobbler-identifying along the way as well. But the rules state that the Cobbler counts for the Innocent tally, so picking them out over finding wolves doesn't really help matters. I recall games where knowing someone was the Cobbler was a relief because at least you could then just ignore the crazy, though!

Oh, I should read before writing. The Innocent Child = Urwen/Lalaith.

Right, onto the actual game thread.

Ach, I can't remember how you quote within a quote. Like, have two people's posts in one. This will look messy, sorry.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
What, are you suggesting we commit mass suicide? A very... cobbleresque suggestion
Quote:
Originally Posted by G55
Well... I suppose, technically, if we all learn from RL examples and willingly quarantine ourselves *before* we get sick - i.e. if we all vote ourselves - the only people not to do so will be the baddies, and then Day 2 will be a breeze. Oh lord.


Aaaaand cue discussion about a no-vote Day 1!
So, Lommy's comment came from a joke of Legate's, and then G55's comment seems to be just a continuation of the same. But then, there's no conversation about it other than Legate saying he is glad there are no double lynches. In fact it's G55 that brings it up again.

Quote:
Originally Posted by G55
Lol. Though this made me think: why didn't the No Lynch debate ever bring up fake votes? Like each person says who they would vote for, but not actually vote. So you have a tally, but no lynch.
I don't really understand the concept. If everyone said who they would vote for, but there's no lynch and no role reveal, then the votes don't tell anything. Also the lynch is the only way of taking a wolf down unless the Hunter is targeted at Night and has picked a wolf.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Hey, THAT is actually a pretty good idea. Because seriously. It would kinda force the Wolves' hands (or tongues). I like that. I mean people can of course flip-flop later, but it isn't easy. I like it. I wholeheartedly second it. Let's do this!
Legate then seems quite keen on the idea! But I can't work out whether he means that people should say their votes and then actually vote, because of where he says about flip-flopping here, which suggests he means they could change their minds between stating who they would vote for and then actually voting. Rather than saying who you would vote for but then not voting. If the former, that strikes me as just the same as what people normally do, where they make a list or put forward an idea of who they might vote for a while before the deadline - which I think most people tend to do. If the latter ... it still makes no sense.

So Pitch, Lottie, Inzil, Brinn (Brinn quite vociferously!) are firmly against the no lynch. And Pitch seems to feel Legate is the instigator of it, but really I feel that honour goes to G55. I think I'm reading Legate's comments as still with a real vote, whereas G55's suggest no actual vote. And then G55 adds to that focus on Legate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by G55
Ok, cobbler much? Even I don't like my idea with so much enthusiasm. I was mainly kinda curious if that tack has ever been tried - and why not, cause it's marginally less bad than the No Votes At All camp.
So was G55 just putting the idea out there to see who would bite? She specifically states here (post 38 - I cannot work out this quoting thing) that she isn't in favour of her own idea. Now, Day 1 discussion can be tough. I mean look, it's her idea that's meant I can really write anything, so on the one hand this is brilliant. It's got people talking, it means there's something to say! But she does seem to be backing away from it quite sharply.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
Then again, again, when has anything gone according to plan? We plan, and plan, and plan. Then 30 minutes before we're forced to decide we start a new plan and all hell breaks loose.
Boro arrives with a rather dire but entirely accurate prediction of the future.

Yeah, see looking at Legate's post 41 it really seems like he was saying to state a vote but then to also make a vote in the Day. I still think that's pretty much what we do anyway, and so this doesn't really stand out to me as anything.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
OK, let's suppose that, say, an hour before DL there's 3 votes for an innocent, 2 for a wolf and 2 for another innocent. If the last to be tied gets quarantined, the wolves need to be on their toes till the last minute to make sure it's not one of them. If it's the first to be tied, they can spread their votes as they like and the first innocent will still be eliminated.
A conversation about when to vote led to this. The rules said it is the first to be tied. I don't think this means the wolves can be entirely relaxed about it, as unless all the innocents had voted before all the wolves there is always the chance of things changing. But any voting, even spread voting, will at least then give everyone someone to work with the following day.

See and then Boro's at it with 'this fake-voting plan of Legate's'. But it wasn't! It was G55's! Pitch and Boro seem to have been thrown by this. I mean, ok, Legate made it into a plan as such, but it wasn't his idea in the first place.

Quote:
Originally Posted by THE Ka
Let's say the latest in the QT thread is a wolf and by some way this happens where there is a tie. The wolf is obviously going to know who their compatriots are, could they throw the vote from the GT?
It would take a bit of finagling and if there is a mix of roles in QT obviously the villagers would know and outvote anything the wolf is trying to suggest. If successful even once it could be the evening of odds they want...
Interesting. Does this suggest a wolf ending up in the QT early on could be an advantage to the wolves? Because if they were there the first QT day they could control the vote? I suppose after that they're pretty much useless, though. Why do I feel like if Nilp was here he'd jump at the chance to self-vote and try it out?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
I find it very odd how very enthusiastic Legate is about this. My immediate thought was the one that Gala had, too: very cobblerish. A wolf wouldn't stick their head out that far, and one would expect an innocent person to be a bit more measured in their response, weighing pros and cons. Not saying a wolf can't fake a careful approach, of course.
Mac, too. I'm starting to think maybe it's me reading this wrong, but that's why I do posts like this. I don't know if it helps other people, but for myself I'm telling the story of the Day, because I simply can't keep track of things otherwise. And it's telling me G55 started this thing off, not Legate. And I still think Legate was saying state a vote, make a vote, which still seems normal.

I love how Shasta's turned up and basically done what was being proposed anyway!

I'd say the biggest problem with this whole discussion was the use of the phrase: fake vote. Why on earth didn't they get called: planned votes?

And then, two people (Rikae and Brinn) make quick suspicion lists. Which is why I don't think the discussion really needed to happen anyway. People do this naturally. I suppose there's the odd person who appears, throws a vote out of seemingly nowhere and then disappears - but I suspect they wouldn't last too long then anyway!

Ah, Eonwe has the same gist of the whole thing as I do. It's a bit of a relief to have someone else see it the same way by this point! And Hui, although he seems to be suggesting a Pitch-Legate wolf duo as well.

Cobbler discussion came up again. I can't work this out with my shoddy maths. So, the Cobbler counts for the innocents, but if the Cobbler ends up in the QT and their role is known, and the role of any wolves in the QT is also known, does that then advantage the wolves in terms of numbers and help them control the vote - because they all know who each other is even if they can't communicate and so would all just vote the same if that would beat/tie the vote. I was just trying to work out whether trying to keep them in the Game Thread would be a better option, because at least here they don't know who the wolves are. But then their role wouldn't be confirmed either. Ugh.

Ooh! The end. Finished at post 79 before I went bolding in case I cross.

Ok. Well, I didn't like the mis-reading of what happened early on with that voting discussion, but I don't know whether it was confused or purposeful on behalf of those who seemed to really focus on Legate as the ringleader: Pitch, Mac, Boro. I think G55 backing away from it and then seeming like she didn't know where Legate was coming from was odd.

Sorry about the length. I'll be back sporadically. Given this took an hour and a half (!!) don't expect hundreds of posts.
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Old 05-05-2020, 04:54 AM   #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
Even with an innocent-majority QT, it would be pretty short-sighted for innocent villagers to wait for a Cutie vote and make their decisions based on it. I mean, sure, if the only Cuties are innocent you can trust they won’t vote for an innocent person on purpose, but while they might have conversations we’re not privy to, they don’t know anything more than we do. (This is barring the existence of a Cutie Seer, obviously, in which case I agree Cutie votes should have more weight in our decision-making.) The reason I’m saying this is that it strikes me as an easy place to hide as a wolf – “Oh sorry I voted for an innocent, I was just following the innocent Cuties’ lead!”
Agreed. If we know that the majority on the QT are innocent, that only tells us that they won't knowingly vote for the good side. A Seer in the QT would have more weight corresponding with the amount of time they'd been there; ie a Seer who had only had one or two dreams before quarantine would be as lost as everyone else by Day 5.


Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
I also disagree with Gal about lists being vague and useless. I personally find them quite helpful; without them it’s easy to stick to talking about the loudest, most controversial villagers and topics and let others fly under the radar completely. This tends to serve wolves better than innocents since odds are at least some of them are among the quiet, less attention-seeking crowd. I’m not saying everyone should do lists, just that I think they can be just as revealing as fake votes (if not more).
I usually don't do involved lists about everyone, but I've always seen them as a way for some to organize their thoughts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
It really struck me how strongly Pitch seemed to be pinning the no-vote concept on Legate, even though G55 had originally proposed it and (I think) had been the main proponent up to that point. I wondered whether this might be WolfPitch (PitchFector?) trying to put the heat on Legate specifically, but why not let it stay on G55? I think someone suggested that G55's backdown could be a wolf trying to pull away from a bad idea, which could mean WolfPitch was protecting GaladriWolf, but spotting two wolves at once seems a bit much for Day 1.
I need to go back and reread all that. Legate feels a bit off to me, but I was wondering if it partly was due to the long time since we've played.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
II have no idea how to spot a cobbler, but it occurs to me that climbing aboard a cobbler-wagon could be a nice way for a wolf to hide. If the village ends up cobbler-hunting rather than wolf-hunting, that can only be a win for the wolves, right? So this sort of mild encouragement of cobbler suspicions raised a little flag for me.
The wolves will be reluctant to target the Cobbler, even though xe is technically the enemy. It's in the Cobbler's interest in fact to hint who they are to the wolves.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Galadriel55 View Post
So this is the second time toDay that a person implies a lack of evidence in people's early posts *squints at Lommy and Ka*. Are you in cahoots, or you're just both coincidentally trying to subtly turn people away from the idea of focusing on existing evidence and pretending all the evidence will come later?
I didn't get that they were saying everyone's posts should be disregarded as useless fluff, only that Day 1 is by its nature the most random vote. Hence, past suggestions of not voting at all Day 1.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
Thing is, if a known CutieWolf casts a vote, the other Cuties are going to use that as their information. Is the known wolf protecting a packmate? Trying to off a suspected gifted? Or bluffing the rest of the Cuties and going wolf-on-wolf, because the Cuties will then vote the opposite way? Or double bluffing? Or just messing with their heads? And if there are two dead wolves, that just complicates the matter further - and if I can remember correctly, I believe they are allowed to PM with dead mates, so they can coordinate this behind the stage. Are they voting together to save a mate? Are they both bluffing? Are they voting differently to confuse everyone? To bluff? To make the QT spread their votes and fail to vote the right way as a result? This is actually an interesting line of QT tactics I haven't considered before.
I think overly analyzing the QT vote is ill-advised. As noted, the predominant alignment of those there will be known, and we just keep that in mind when we see their vote. Even if they're mostly Innocent, they could be wrong.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Galadriel55 View Post
Is it, though? Because often the way wolves are spotted is because they are anxious out of proportion to the innocents. The extra scrutiny means extra pressure on everyone, wolves included. As for bandwagons, part of their analysis is who had a good reason to be there vs who just tagged along for the ride, and thus each decision must still be the person's own true belief they are willing to stand behind. I see Ka's argument that innocents might inadvertently look more wolfish, but I also see the flip side of Ka saying she doesn't want more scrutiny. Is it really that much sense, considering all the psychology and analysis remain the same as they are in every WW game?
But all this can be done without people freaking out about being present for a "fake DL" when they might have enough trouble getting here for the real one. And being able to cast doubt on those who failed to fake vote (for valid reasons) could jsut give the wolves a basis for a bandwagon.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eönwë View Post
I'm not sure what this means for those who discussed it early on though. G55, the original suggester, has since distanced herself from the idea, but whether this is an innocent realizing the problems with their idea vs. a bold wolf realizing that people aren't buying a bad idea remains to be seen.
I'm trying to decide whether I think Legate or G55 makes me more uneasy.

A lot of RL going on today, including a funeral to attend. I should have no trouble getting back before DL.

x/d with Huey and Kath
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Old 05-05-2020, 04:59 AM   #83
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Okay! Back, a quick runthrough of what's been posted meanwhile (I'm kinda glad it's just one page and not seven, as I feared. But it's a long way to DL still...) Responding to various stuff as I go...

Quote:
Originally Posted by THE Ka View Post
Rushed villagers may not purposefully lie to distract, but if someone is anxious and doesn't have much evidence they might try to prove themselves by stretching the truth quite a lot (grabbing at straws). Sort of the same way that forced confessions are often useless. There is the unfortunate possibility we could end up with a different kind of bandwagon, not by votes for a player, but a lot of bunk confessionals that sound similar except for a few minor details changed to make it more personable.
It happens always (and happened to me in particular quite a few times). But WWs would still be more threatened by it than innocents, I think.

Quote:
Originally Posted by THE Ka View Post
Let's say the latest in the QT thread is a wolf and by some way this happens where there is a tie. The wolf is obviously going to know who their compatriots are, could they throw the vote from the GT?
It would take a bit of finagling and if there is a mix of roles in QT obviously the villagers would know and outvote anything the wolf is trying to suggest. If successful even once it could be the evening of odds they want...

We also have the 'non-logical' hunter role in game this time:


This is an interesting mechanic, because it does make even a 'bad vote' more complicated. If they take a villager, then there is at least more votes in their favour in the QT. If it's a wolf, sure it removes them from the GT, but if there's another wolf already in the QT it could lead them to trying alternate attempts to steal a vote.
It would be interesting if wolves in QT didn't vote together, however. Granted the number in QT would be significantly smaller than in the GT to try and use the 'spread suspicion by voting for one another' tactic, but it would make you pause and wonder why.
Yes, I think that's an interesting possibility, but 1) it's a what-if and 2) it's about one-in-a-thousand chance for such a thing to happen in the first place (several conditions would have to be met). Let's remember this and bring it up in case we find ourselves in such a situation, but now, it's pure speculation not very relevant for the moment.

Speaking of that, I also don't know why some people *glances in the direction of Pitch and G55* were spending so much time discussing last-minute voting and stuff. Last-minute voting will happen no matter what, it has been like that since the dawn of time, discussing it has about as much merit as discussing whether the village should try to lynch Wolves in order to win.

I mean the theory about when are wolf-on-wolf votes more likely etc is a good point, but it will be relevant only in retrospect, and only after we have confirmed at least one Wolf's identity.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
I agree. This seems rather complicated considering we all are in different time zones with different schedules. It could result in a logistical nightmare.
Well (and ad "second deadline" in general): if people agreed to it, it would work. I mean some people vote early anyway. Where there's a will... But if not, then not. It served as an interesting thought experiment, and a discussion material, it seems, at least.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien
Poor Badger! But all the more joy to the rest of us who can sit down together for a cup of herbal tea and solve his murder, right? *cracks knuckles* (Oh god it's been LONG and I absolutely love being here.)

What, are you suggesting we commit mass suicide? A very... cobbleresque suggestion


edit: xed with Pitchwife - and I have no idea what's Pontius Pilate got to do with all this
Only a cobbler would accuse another of shoemaking so very early.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife
Easy: he demonstrated that washing your hands is no sign of innocence.
So did Lady Macbeth.
Given that Shasta has been a known psychic throughout the entire WW history, I say this means Lommy is a Cobbler and Pitch is a Wolf. Unless, of course, Shasta himself is something sinister.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Oh ... hello! I'm sorry, I've just been busy making these masks. They have pockets!
Hey! Been waiting for one of those!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
When it comes to single top suspects vs lists, both have their pros and cons and leave material to analyze later on. Me, I like lists. Here's one, just to get the ball rolling:

Pitchwife
G55
Macalaure
But you didn't indicate what is that a list of. Of what? Top suspects?

Last thought: I second Lommy and Greenie about not focussing on Cobbler. I think that's about the extent of that we should give them. We are likely to accidentally lynch them anyway, mistaking them for a Wolf, but every post spent on discussing the Cobbler is only more distraction from our main goal. Which is exactly what the Cobbler wants. Talk about vicious circle.

EDIT: x-ed with Huinesoron, Kath and Zil
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Old 05-05-2020, 05:17 AM   #84
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I think I might have bitten off more than I can chew here...

Hi all,

Nice to see day 1 banter spiralling out of control, it convinces me that things haven't changed too much over the years.

I will attempt to following the action closely during the day, but it will probably be 3 or 4 hours before I can put together a lengthy post.

For now let me just say that I am pro anything that leaves more data for us to analyse, so in principle I am not against making preliminary votes a thing. As long as we don't take a dogmatic approach that would leave the system open for wolfish exploitation (but that goes for pretty much everything).
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Old 05-05-2020, 05:56 AM   #85
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I'm technically supposed to start work soon, so we'll see how much I get through here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
OK, Legate, let me ask you: What exactly do we have to gain from the kind of fake vote you're suggesting?
If it is just that, a fake vote with no real lynch as per G55, we've effectively wasted a day, nobody has to fear the consequences of their vote because without a lynch, we won't know whether they voted for an innoent or a wolf, and the wolves can go wolf-on-wolf to their hearts' content witrh no danger to any of them.
If it's just that people announce beforehand whom they are planning to vote, and the vote takes place later, and we compare what people said before to how they actually voted, how is this different from what we usually do?
This strikes me as a pseudo-useful suggestion/discussion. *ping*
Your taking apart of Legate's suggestion as a pseudo-useful post, could be applied here though. In both instances it could be innocent villagers stirring up conversation to draw out baddies. Or it could be baddies trying to draw in innocents to pin as guilty later.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
I'm here to represent the We Hate Day Ones club (or whatever its name ever was). And as much as I agree that with 5 wolves it is statistically more likely to lynch one on Day 1... Well, let's see what the Day brings...
(Now this, this post has no helpful content whatsoever. )
Not helpful whatsoever? I dunno, the need to point out "this wasn't helpful" makes me raise my eyebrows. We already had some posts and discussions going when you chimed in and it just seems suspicious you felt the need to point out you had nothing to add at the time. "Look at me, I'm definitely innocent because I haven't said anything of real merit."

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Yes, people do that. But usually, people fall into multiple categories. Some people hardly say anything about whom they would actually vote until DL. Some people have like three people they have in the "I could vote" category. That is usually a good strategy for the WWs, who then pick from their three in the last minute, ideally based on which bandwagons exist and what is convenient. The main purpose of the whole thing would be, as I said, to force the WW's hand a bit more than it is. Kind of kick people (especially WWs) into action. Force them to fabricate their accusations of others - because then they will be more easily caught on lying. Because unlike all the other villagers, they would have to lie.
I read this as "maybe veer away from lists" and just say you're going to commit to one person, even if you don't vote that way. I see where you're coming from as the lists help wolves form bandwagons and this will force them to really push their accusations. Except this will force innocents to do the same, with the same bloody lynching result. It's early and maybe I'm reading all this wrong, but this idea seems as likely to backfire as to succeed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by B88
Then unless something drastic happens in the next 2 hours (and if we're being honest it will. There is the inevitable deadline flurry voting that throws plans off). The point of the exercising of my prior "fake vote" is not so much to say "AHH you back-pedaled you can't back-pedal from your fake vote!" If Legate wasn't a likely option, I would expect a bunch of back-pedaling to take place. The purpose would be to get a look at reasoning for what happened in those 2 hours to either stay with my fake vote or back-pedal from it. Which, in itself is informative
The more I read of Legate's plan the more of a headache I get. It's a high risk high reward situation in my mind.
Innocents are baddies alike make fake votes and then potentially have to backpedal depending on how the wind blows closer to the DL. No matter what it leaves us a trail for Day 2, so that's good. In not making a "I suspect blah, blah" list I think it also helps in the Night. Wolves can't hide behind people's suspect lists during the Day. How often has a wolf appeared on someone's innocent list, a person who is killed in the night, only to use that list as cover later?

But then there's this
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zil
Seems that it could be a double-edged sword though; those of evil bent will have a good idea of which way the wind is blowing and plan accordingly.
Because while I see how fake voting can help, clever baddies will find a way to exploit it.
A backpedaling innocent is going to do everything they can to stay alive for the good of the village and they're probably going to look guilty in their attempts. It just takes a few well-placed, persuasive posts to get a baffled innocent lynched.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
That's probably enough content to make it look like I'm participating.


I'm not done catching up, but I must login for work. But I'll be around intermittently in the vain hopes of not falling behind on the discussion.
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Old 05-05-2020, 06:02 AM   #86
Inziladun
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath View Post
There's been some talk about Cobbler-identifying along the way as well. But the rules state that the Cobbler counts for the Innocent tally, so picking them out over finding wolves doesn't really help matters. I recall games where knowing someone was the Cobbler was a relief because at least you could then just ignore the crazy, though!
Right. For wolves, they want to know who it is so as not to kill xem. Everyone else just wants to be able to discount what they say and do.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath View Post
Legate then seems quite keen on the idea! But I can't work out whether he means that people should say their votes and then actually vote, because of where he says about flip-flopping here, which suggests he means they could change their minds between stating who they would vote for and then actually voting. Rather than saying who you would vote for but then not voting. If the former, that strikes me as just the same as what people normally do, where they make a list or put forward an idea of who they might vote for a while before the deadline - which I think most people tend to do. If the latter ... it still makes no sense.
It was all about basically saying who you would vote for ahead of actually doing it. Just formalizing it in a way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath View Post
So was G55 just putting the idea out there to see who would bite? She specifically states here (post 38 - I cannot work out this quoting thing) that she isn't in favour of her own idea. Now, Day 1 discussion can be tough. I mean look, it's her idea that's meant I can really write anything, so on the one hand this is brilliant. It's got people talking, it means there's something to say! But she does seem to be backing away from it quite sharply.
And left it looking like Legate's ball.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath View Post
Interesting. Does this suggest a wolf ending up in the QT early on could be an advantage to the wolves? Because if they were there the first QT day they could control the vote? I suppose after that they're pretty much useless, though. Why do I feel like if Nilp was here he'd jump at the chance to self-vote and try it out?
Not useless, because they can still try to mislead the Innocents in the QT by going after their fellows. They still have the advantage of knowing who's on which side.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath View Post
I'd say the biggest problem with this whole discussion was the use of the phrase: fake vote. Why on earth didn't they get called: planned votes?
As opposed to unplanned votes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath View Post
So, the Cobbler counts for the innocents, but if the Cobbler ends up in the QT and their role is known, and the role of any wolves in the QT is also known, does that then advantage the wolves in terms of numbers and help them control the vote - because they all know who each other is even if they can't communicate and so would all just vote the same if that would beat/tie the vote. I was just trying to work out whether trying to keep them in the Game Thread would be a better option, because at least here they don't know who the wolves are. But then their role wouldn't be confirmed either. Ugh
Well, we can't "keep them in the Game Thread" without knowing who they are. At least not on purpose.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Speaking of that, I also don't know why some people *glances in the direction of Pitch and G55* were spending so much time discussing last-minute voting and stuff. Last-minute voting will happen no matter what, it has been like that since the dawn of time, discussing it has about as much merit as discussing whether the village should try to lynch Wolves in order to win.
But wasn't that the purported point of the "fake" vote: to keep last-ditch voting down?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Last thought: I second Lommy and Greenie about not focussing on Cobbler. I think that's about the extent of that we should give them. We are likely to accidentally lynch them anyway, mistaking them for a Wolf, but every post spent on discussing the Cobbler is only more distraction from our main goal. Which is exactly what the Cobbler wants. Talk about vicious circle.
A Cobbler would only want to be lynched if it was down to xem or a wolf. Otherwise, the chance of hitting xem is the same as anyone else.

x/d with Kit
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Old 05-05-2020, 06:05 AM   #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath
Ah, Eonwe has the same gist of the whole thing as I do. It's a bit of a relief to have someone else see it the same way by this point! And Hui, although he seems to be suggesting a Pitch-Legate wolf duo as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inziladun
I'm trying to decide whether I think Legate or G55 makes me more uneasy.
I don't know that I particularly suggested Pitch-Legate; I just can't see what wolf!Legate would be up to. He's deliberately drawn attention to himself, and if Pitch was working with him, it would be to take that focus off G55.

But on the other hand, this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Speaking of that, I also don't know why some people *glances in the direction of Pitch and G55* were spending so much time discussing last-minute voting and stuff.
Coming from the person who was so involved in swinging the conversation due voting practices, this feels slightly disingenuous. (On the other hand, my memory of how hard Legate pushed the whole topic might be skewed by the number of people saying he pushed it.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rune
For now let me just say that I am pro anything that leaves more data for us to analyse, so in principle I am not against making preliminary votes a thing. As long as we don't take a dogmatic approach that would leave the system open for wolfish exploitation (but that goes for pretty much everything).
I will always support anything with 'data' in the description. ^_^ The longer the paper trail (tail?) the wolves leave, the easier they'll be to catch. But two caveats:

a) We're well past halfway through Day 1, and a bunch of people are asleep. A general 'state your voting intention well before deadline' seems plausible, but I'm not sure there's time to get a solid commitment from the village on Day One. (Of course, choosing not to not!vote is evidence in itself...)

b) Someone (can't find it now) said that we'd need to remember that the voting environment changes before deadline, and I totally agree. If we're shaping up for a near tie between someone I think is maybe guilty and someone I think looks generally fine, then I'm not going to stick by my third-party vote and let the more likely innocent be quarantined!

I think that's been assumed in this discussion, but I'm not sure anyone's come out and said it, and I'm not great with subtext.

(Work update: this is my fourth post, but I've already caught myself checking incoming work emails to see if they might come from wolves. This game gets in your head...)

hS (crossed w/ Kitanna and Zil)
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Old 05-05-2020, 06:19 AM   #88
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Most people have posted, I made a list of those who stood out to me in one way or another. It is not complete - meaning, it doesn't have everyone. Generally because they posted little or I don't get any strong vibes either way. This is for the time being, because I don't know how much I am going to be able to post in the following several hours (may be a lot, may be not at all), so better to post now what I have.

Pitch - I originally thought he could be a Cobbler, simply based on his first few posts. The kind of "stir the pot" stuff.

Lommy - nearly ditto. There was some talking in circles from her though, which is normal, and she is maybe a tad more careful than I would normally expect.

Brinniel - I have seen her (and played with her) a couple of times as a Wolf, and her initial posts make red lights flash. Of course, it's Day 1, half the people say noncommital things, yada yada. But in her case, there already were some topics to discuss, and it sounded like she was intentionally picking to comment more on noncommital things. Both her first posts have the same structure: one part - remark on hygienic procedures that is not related to the game, second part - something related to the game but of all topics discussed at the moment, not necessarily the most burning ones. (Now these were notes from some twelve hours ago, her later posts made me think slightly better of her, but... still. I know she's the kind of player who, when she's a Wolf, can stay out of spotlight by doing the right maneuvers, and her behaviour seemed to me like just that.)

Kitanna posted very little to the point of making me wonder whether it was deliberate staying out of discussion while maintaining presence.

(People like Lhuna have also posted zero content and admitted it, but that's a different type of behaviour - I hope to see more from her and similar others still later, of course.)

Lottie has raised some eyebrows, but it seems to me like she acts the way innocent Lottie would.

G55's posting feels horribly aggressive, as in, questioning people on absolutely random points (such as Boro's absolutely random remark), but on second thought, she's doing it consistently and I kind of seem to recall it may be her playing style in general.

Macalaure's first post was fishy as Angband (erm... in the future maybe), meaning, subtly pointing fingers while not accusing straightforwardly. Mesa not like this at all.

Rikae is being rather provocative in the curt yet to-the-point-statements, but that is very typical behaviour. So far I am actually thinking that may be rather a sign of innocence.

Kath's one post was very helpfully structured - okay, actually let me digress here and say that I really like that way of posting, the sort of "evolutionary" approach, so please keep doing that, I'm only happy to read it, because it offers an insight into your thought process (and if you are not innocent, then fabricated one, which would also be very useful) -
---but anyway, obviously, this does not indicate her innocence or guilt in any way, but so far leaning innocent-ish. She would, however, easily post the same thing even as a Wolf (for instance, either as an innocent, she's genuinely spotting the real course of events, while as a Wolf, she may have decided to single out that particular issue and then subtly point fingers at the "misinterpreters" like Pitch, Mac, then also G55 etc. It'd be actually a very convenient arrangement, but, I may also be happy that Kath is posting such detailed things so relatively early for once, so I am reserving imagining the worst-case scenarios here.)

Eönwë seemed okay (but waiting for more content there). So does Huinesoron thus far.

Hi, Rune. Hope to see more from you. Same goes for Sally, Urwen... and whomever else I missed now.

Ok, I'll post this, see whom I crossposted with, then see how much post-able I am in the near future... But this is the state of my thought process at the moment.

Edit: x-ed with Kitanna, Zil, and HS.
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Old 05-05-2020, 06:21 AM   #89
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Oof. Three pages of posts already. Five wolves in there somewhere causing chaos, with a cobbler urging them on.
I'd better get reading....
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Old 05-05-2020, 06:23 AM   #90
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Before leaving I had spent a lot of time with this on my mind. Now, now, it's not a "list" per se, more my general perceptions of behavior and style. Please feel free to correct if any of this is wrong.

Thinlómien - usually can get a good feeling of "ordo," from her famed "flip-floppy" style. Even within the same comment, it's like witnessing a debate with herself. Harder to sense if she's gifted or evil, because she'll be the same regardless. But as evil, her flip-flopping looks more practiced and rehearsed and not that feeling of "an ordo naturally debating and second-guessing herself all the time."

Legate of Amon Lanc - The theorizer, expect long analytical approach. Someone who always wants to be in the thick of the conversation. Someone I inevitably, if both of us are around in the later days, end up in a fight with that consumes an entire day (at minimum)

Huinesoron - newer player. Can't peg him into an expected style. Previously, appeared to be the sort who wants to get his hands in there and be involved in everything.

Loslote - in a similar way to sally, I get a sense she strives to have fun. Does leave a lengthier insight to follow by way of her reasoning/voting rationale.

Pitchwife - loves the Day 1 statistics stuff. Tends to be more active and will get involved/engage in just about everything. Despite that, an air that he does like holding his thoughts back.

Kath - I really just want to know when the next time she'll remember a Day 1 vote deadline? Flies under the radar in a few contributions per day. The few contributions do get rather lengthy, in terms of providing insight and then you see why it's usually just 1-2 posts a day. Sooo long.

Galadriel55 - Can seem random. I'd describe it as inquisitive. Does not shy away from asking any question to any one.

Lhunardawen - She goes back to the very beginning times. I've got to reach deep back in my memory to recall her style. The one this exercise will help me in the least, since she's like a newcomer, but not a newcomer. Add to "fly under the radar" group.

Inziladun - I get a distinct sense that I always want to lynch Inzil Day 1. Do you get that too? No matter what, maybe it's a lynchable looking neck, I get this uncontrollable voice on Day 1 that says "vote to lynch Inzil." Then the voice subsides after Day 1. Count him in the gets into the conversation/engaging group.

Kitanna - Add to "fly under the radar" group. Analytical and perceptive.

A Little Green - Tries to give off the impression that she's "flying under the radar" but perception tells me she's the opposite. Whether innocent or wolf, if she's got the time, there's a good bet she strives to be involved in the big stuff, but likes to give off a different impression.

Boromir88 (Chime in with whatever floats your boats)

Urwen -No prior data to form anything.

Lalaith - Regardless of role, add to "fly under the radar" group. Additionally, I'd say reliable to make votes and deadlines.

Brinniel - Add to "fly under the radar" group. Regardless of role is adept at avoiding suspicion/attracting attention. A contrarian to the accepted norms.

Eönwë - Add to "fly under the radar" group. Straight to business approach. Been too long to form more solid impression.

Macalaure - No joke, but the 1 person who frightens me more than any one else I've encountered. Prefers to be involved. Not someone I want to end up in a fight with, because only one of us comes out and my money is on Mac.

Rikae - a wild card. I have trouble pinpointing/figuring out whether what she's trying to accomplish is good or evil. But regardless of role, strives to accomplish something.

Rune Son of Bjarne - Been a long time for Rune as well. I'd assign to a "not a list maker" group. When there is the time, he does prefer to get involved. Opposite of Legate's lengthy, analytical approach. Rune takes the shorter, one-on-one interaction approach.

THE Ka - A long time for The Ka as well...add to "fly under the radar" group. Can't recall anything more solid to go off of.

Satansaloser2005 - silly, silly cupcake. Strives to brighten up a place with her silliness. Funny how you can see the differences in how our minds work. I used a double-negative to express I'll return a goofball. She didn't use a negative to assure the same. Regardless of role, prefers not to leave a long trail to follow. Any solid conclusions, primarily based on her votes.

Shastanis Althreduin - sometimes is engaged, sometimes less engaged, but someone I always want to keep tabs on. Similar to Rikae, in hard for me to pinpoint between good or evil intentions, but strives to always be up to something.

Will any of this help me with decisions and more decision? Eh, who knows, but instead of having all that floating around in my head. "Putting it all down on paper" as they say, gets it out of my head. Onwards and upwards to more exercises that will further organize my head.

Assumed edit: that this x-ed with some people.
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Old 05-05-2020, 06:32 AM   #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron
I feel like there's a lot of people who managed to 'contribute' by just talking about no-votes.
You've got to start the discussion from somewhere. I would, however, side eye everyone whose only contribution toDay will boil down to discussing the no-votes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron
I totally understand that kind of thought process (I tend towards parenthetical irrelevancies myself), but I'm also wondering whether, for what is after all a 'first game back' for most of you, there's an element of playing into your** own legend: deliberately heightening your 'trademarks' to cover up for any suspicious behaviour.

**'Your' here indicates a general thought, not specifically about Thinlomien; I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and certainly not well enough to know who's acting 'as expected'.
That's certainly a fair point. I mean whenever I'm a wolf I'm certainly trying to roleplay innocent me to a degree, and if you have established trademark quirks, it helps to follow those. So anyone sounding like a parody of their usual self is worth looking at.
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Old 05-05-2020, 06:55 AM   #92
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So, groups of tabs...

The don't have to keep a tab on because they let you know when they are present in that "in your face" style group:

Lommy
Legate
G55
Pitch
Inzil


The keep a tab on because they "fly under the radar" and I lack a solid memory group:

Lhuna
Kit
Eonwe
The Ka


The keep a "slightly lesser tab on because they fly under the radar" but I have a better memory of group:

Kath
Lalaith
Brinn


The keep a tab on because of they're a wild card, but let their plots play out and then we should probably lynch them group:

Greenie
Rikae
Shasta


Edit: accidentally hit enter before finishing my groups :-( ahh I'll just continue into the next post
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Old 05-05-2020, 07:01 AM   #93
Huinesoron
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
Huinesoron - newer player. Can't peg him into an expected style. Previously, appeared to be the sort who wants to get his hands in there and be involved in everything.


Yeah, 'be involved in everything' kind of sums me up.

I'm seeing a lot of people (Rikae, Legate, slightly Boro) making comments that Macalaure looks suspicious, and that worries me because he didn't ping any of my bells at all. So far as I can see this is his only post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
Ah, Day 1. Where all we can do is make up reasons out of thin air.

*sniffs*

Ugh, nah. The air over Dor-lomin isn't what it used to be. And here people say that the air would be cleaner if everybody stayed in their village.

Anyway.

Fakes votes, eh?

If we mean fake votes instead of real ones, to avoid a Day1 lynch, I don't see the usefulness in that. Since those votes lack any consequence, it's the easiest thing for wolves to throw their votes at whoever, or wolf-on-wolf without the risk that comes with it.

If we mean a deadline before the deadline. Really? What about the people with tighter schedules. We can't expect everybody to be available for two deadlines.

Worse, the day after people will be too quick to jump on those who changed their mind from one deadline to the next. Wolves, on the other hand, lacking conscience, will have a very easy time showing consistency.

I find it very odd how very enthusiastic Legate is about this. My immediate thought was the one that Gala had, too: very cobblerish. A wolf wouldn't stick their head out that far, and one would expect an innocent person to be a bit more measured in their response, weighing pros and cons. Not saying a wolf can't fake a careful approach, of course.
As far as I can see, most of it is agreement with and slight expansion on what other people had said; is that what you meant by 'fishy as Angband', Legate? You talk about pointing fingers, but other than the explicit point at Galadriel55, it all looks like fairly general musing on wolves.

I guess I'm just feeling wary about how unsupported some of these suspicions seem.

~

Looking back over my own earlier suspects, Lommy seems to have 'calmed down' a bit (if that's the term; eased off, maybe?), which could back up the idea that her early posts were basically banter. I don't think G55 and - especially - Pitch have been back on, so I'm in the More Data Required stage there.

hS

(Crossed with Boro's (first?) 'tabs' post.)
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Old 05-05-2020, 07:04 AM   #94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post

a) We're well past halfway through Day 1, and a bunch of people are asleep. A general 'state your voting intention well before deadline' seems plausible, but I'm not sure there's time to get a solid commitment from the village on Day One. (Of course, choosing not to not!vote is evidence in itself...)

b) Someone (can't find it now) said that we'd need to remember that the voting environment changes before deadline, and I totally agree. If we're shaping up for a near tie between someone I think is maybe guilty and someone I think looks generally fine, then I'm not going to stick by my third-party vote and let the more likely innocent be quarantined!
I think agree with these points.

Regarding b) this is what i mean about us being undogmatic in our approach. Circumstances change and we will have to adapt, so there should never be an automated response to a person deviating from their preliminary vote (or previous statements for that matter). They should however be able to defend it to a reasonable extent.
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Old 05-05-2020, 07:05 AM   #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G55
So I got woken up in the middle of the night by a spam call, and so here I am. Again.
What spam monster calls in the middle of the night?!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
Quote:
Originally Posted by Galadriel55 View Post
You’re arrested for Gate-breaking, and Tearing up of Rules, and Assaulting Gate-keepers, and - errr, that is, you're accused of Generalizing, Exaggerating, and Deliberately Misinterpreting and Misrepresenting Other Posts. I challenge you to defend your statements!
Defend, hm? Just jokingly summarizing the initial conversation. I was curious to see what sort of reaction it would get, though.
*side eyes both* Orchestrated wolf action? I suppose not likely, but the more I read of G55 the more I raise my eyebrows.
She distanced herself from her own idea, was quick to challenge Legate when he found the merit in it, and has been fairly vocal throughout. And yet, when I try to think of anything detailed she said, I draw a blank. She's been helpful and has urged on discussion and I'm finding her a little too helpful.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron
It really struck me how strongly Pitch seemed to be pinning the no-vote concept on Legate, even though G55 had originally proposed it and (I think) had been the main proponent up to that point. I wondered whether this might be WolfPitch (PitchFector?) trying to put the heat on Legate specifically, but why not let it stay on G55? I think someone suggested that G55's backdown could be a wolf trying to pull away from a bad idea, which could mean WolfPitch was protecting GaladriWolf, but spotting two wolves at once seems a bit much for Day 1.
On the one hand G55 set something up and waited for an innocent to take the bait and then distanced herself the moment it fell under scrutiny. Her move is a bold one for a Day 1 ploy to try to bandwagon an innocent. Bold and fairly early in the Day.
On the other hand wolfPitch sees an idea that is probably doomed to fail. He picks the second person to pick it up and doesn't really cast suspicion on the actual creator. Pitch then sets up Legate for trouble.
In the whole fake vote debate, I am leaning toward trusting Legate over G55 who first suggested it and Pitch who was so vocal in disputing it.
Still trying to read through between actual, boring work.
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Old 05-05-2020, 07:11 AM   #96
Boromir88
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The keep a tab on to always be aware of where they are group:

Mac
Rune


The don't have to keep a tab on group because I'm always aware of where they are group:

sally
Lottie


The keep a tab on because I have no tab on group:

Huinesoron
Urwen


Onto finish page 3 and cast a "fake" vote. I read that whole situation as more like a guideline or recommendation, not an enforced mandate. Although I sort of missed the part about a second "fake dl" to tie it into the QT's deadline to vote. That's kind of important to the plan and would be a logistics nightmare. My intention is to try it as a guideline and exercise for myself.
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Old 05-05-2020, 08:04 AM   #97
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People are writing a crazy amount of crazy long posts on Day1 already. We need to start quarantining some of y'all! Nothing but quotes and one-liners for you!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?
Waitawhat? I only said he looked like a cobbler.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huin
It really struck me how strongly Pitch seemed to be pinning the no-vote concept on Legate, even though G55 had originally proposed it
This I found odd, too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
I'm not a list maker
*proceeds to write up two big lists just one page later*

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huin
I'm seeing a lot of people (Rikae, Legate, slightly Boro) making comments that Macalaure looks suspicious,
I do seem to have a habit of rubbing people wrong on Day1. I swear I don't do it on purpose! I admit it amuses me greatly when it happens though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Macalaure's first post was fishy as Angband (erm... in the future maybe), meaning, subtly pointing fingers while not accusing straightforwardly. Mesa not like this at all.
You want straightforward accusations one page into Day1??

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
subtly point fingers at the "misinterpreters" like Pitch, Mac, then also G55 etc.
I find it funny how Legate was all reasonable and discuss-the-matter originally, and now he goes after all the people who cast that little bit of shadow on him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
I get a distinct sense that I always want to lynch Inzil Day 1. Do you get that too?
I do get such cravings, too. I try to give him the benefit of the doubt every time, but sometimes he makes it hard for me. I mean:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inzil
Quote:
Originally Posted by meeee
I find it very odd how very enthusiastic Legate is about this. My immediate thought was the one that Gala had, too: very cobblerish. A wolf wouldn't stick their head out that far, and one would expect an innocent person to be a bit more measured in their response, weighing pros and cons. Not saying a wolf can't fake a careful approach, of course.
Hmm. Perhaps.
This is about the most uncommitted thing I've ever read.



(Also, that feeling when the Downs won't let you post four smileys and you have to Sophie's choice one of them...)

Last edited by Macalaure; 05-05-2020 at 08:11 AM. Reason: forgot to bold some names
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Old 05-05-2020, 08:13 AM   #98
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So I'm kind of alive after staying up way too long last night and have read most of what has transpired in the meantime, trying to take notes at first but gave up on that because of Achilles & the turtle (the size of this village is insane).


Why did I pressure Legate rather than G55 re the fake votes? The difference between

1) G55 throwing out an idea to stir up a discussion, and

2) Legate picking it up and going "Oh yes that's a good idea let's totally do that!", when I thought it was a) not helpful and b) needlessly overcomplicating things. But my last note on him, on his reply to G55 in #44, was 'actually sensible?'



Speaking of overcomplicating things, where did this whole idea of waiting for guidance from the QT come from? And why would we 'always have to second-guess' the QT vote, as G55 said in #56? Unless there's a quarantined Seer AND the majority of the Cuties are innocent, the QT vote is just another vote that may be rght or wrong or misguided or driven by evil intentions like everybody else's. No way for us to know.
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Old 05-05-2020, 08:16 AM   #99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
I do seem to have a habit of rubbing people wrong on Day1. I swear I don't do it on purpose! I admit it amuses me greatly when it happens though.
Ditto. No matter what side I'm on I get early suspicion. I'd expect no less.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
You want straightforward accusations one page into Day1??
Of course! Then there's more reason to bandwaggon the accuser!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
I find iI do get such cravings, too. I try to give him the benefit of the doubt every time, but sometimes he makes it hard for me. I mean:This is about the most uncommitted thing I've ever read.
Again, same. My natural inclination always says you have diabolical intentions, and holding them down in lieu of hard evidence is second nature.

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Old 05-05-2020, 08:18 AM   #100
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Mac, really? You find it odd how I pinned the no-vote stuff on Legate, when earlier you yourself found it just as odd how enthusiastic he was about it? Now that I find odd! *ping*
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Old 05-05-2020, 08:19 AM   #101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
Yeah, 'be involved in everything' kind of sums me up.

I'm seeing a lot of people (Rikae, Legate, slightly Boro) making comments that Macalaure looks suspicious, and that worries me because he didn't ping any of my bells at all. So far as I can see this is his only post:
Huh, interesting. The goal in my post you're referencing wasn't to announce any suspicions. I don't think I've given any suspicions yet. Is that suspicious? Maybe some would say it is, but I did it as a therapeutic exercise. All these people coming back jumbled my head to be filled with "What does Lommy do? What does Greenie do?...etc. It was to "put it all down on paper" as they say and not announce suspicions.

One has to also analyze themselves when trying to analyze others. I invite anyone to chime in on me. Here's an analysis on myself:

At the heart, I'm combative. I like to be a thorn. Sometimes I end up a thorn in people's pinky fingers, sometimes their kneecaps, sometimes a thorn in their eyes, but I hope to be a thorn in their side. I charge straight towards confrontation with just about anyone and everyone....except Mac. Which was my point on him. It's my nature to be combative and I will be a thorn in Mac's sides if there's warrant for it. There's always that hesitation that I don't get when I confront anyone else.

It's like Gandalf versus the Balrog to use that analogy. To me, he's got a powerful and deserved reputation. I'll go for it, but I don't charge head on, because I know I won't come out the same person.

Edit: Crossed with Pitch twice and Inzil
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Old 05-05-2020, 08:20 AM   #102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Why did I pressure Legate rather than G55 re the fake votes? The difference between

1) G55 throwing out an idea to stir up a discussion, and

2) Legate picking it up and going "Oh yes that's a good idea let's totally do that!", when I thought it was a) not helpful and b) needlessly overcomplicating things. But my last note on him, on his reply to G55 in #44, was 'actually sensible?'
I find myself not suspecting you, and that in itself ought to raise alarm bells.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Speaking of overcomplicating things, where did this whole idea of waiting for guidance from the QT come from? And why would we 'always have to second-guess' the QT vote, as G55 said in #56? Unless there's a quarantined Seer AND the majority of the Cuties are innocent, the QT vote is just another vote that may be rght or wrong or misguided or driven by evil intentions like everybody else's. No way for us to know.
As I and others have said. If the majority in the QT are known innocents, we know they won't intentionally avoid going for a baddie, but that's all.

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Old 05-05-2020, 08:26 AM   #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88
I don't know when it happened, but I got to a point of "on this one day, Boro, you can do you. Why shouldn't you have fun with it?"
You mean like this?

++NILPAURIO-- I mean

++LHUNARDAWEN

Now that that's out of the way...



Quote:
Originally Posted by G55
Dismissing early posts because of the "nothing really happens" argument is dismissing part of the evidence.
But they barely feel like evidence taken in isolation toDay. Cumulatively in the coming Days, maybe, but very rarely toDay.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
Worse, the day after people will be too quick to jump on those who changed their mind from one deadline to the next. Wolves, on the other hand, lacking conscience, will have a very easy time showing consistency.
Sounds right. The only logical reason a wolf would swing a last-minute vote from a non-wolf would be to protect a fellow wolf; it's far too early in the game to sacrifice a packmate (unless they play a bold game since there are a lot of them anyway). And with a village this large, the odds are still higher that votes will be cast against an innocent than a wolf.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
I was referring to not voicing serious suspicions before the QT vote, which would make for a very unproductive day, no trails, lazy justifications. and a good environment for wolves to hide, which is why (I hope) innocents will avoid doing it.
Agree. I'd be wary of those who take too much stock of the QT vote when considering their own vote.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenie
I mean, sure, if the only Cuties are innocent you can trust they won’t vote for an innocent person on purpose, but while they might have conversations we’re not privy to, they don’t know anything more than we do. (This is barring the existence of a Cutie Seer, obviously, in which case I agree Cutie votes should have more weight in our decision-making.)
I don't know. I mean, even if the Seer dreams of a wolf, if xe dies without revealing their dream(s), it's as good as nothing for the living. It doesn't seem safe for the living to assume that just because the Seer is in the QT and they vote for someone, that means the Seer dreamt that that someone is a wolf. Does that make sense? More to the point, am I making sense out of how a dead thread works? Newcomer here, never played with one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
I gotta applaud Legate for getting the discussion rolling by taking G55's fake lynch idea seriously and running with it; however I'm very confused why he'd do this (ordo trying to be helpful? wolf trying to look helpful? cobbler trying to distract people?).
Any role trying to gauge reactions for whatever purpose (like Rikae did)?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hui
*I'm a scientist; I can't bring myself to say 'theory' on so little data.
Oh, a Downer after my own heart.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath
Why do I feel like if Nilp was here he'd jump at the chance to self-vote and try it out?
Not a wolf, but Nilp made me do this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hui
Work update: this is my fourth post, but I've already caught myself checking incoming work emails to see if they might come from wolves.
Hmm? Is this a slip?



Since I've always struggled reading much into Day 1 banter - yes, even the ones with debates over crazy plans that never come to fruition - and my post-work brain has pretty much turned to mush, I will let my gut take charge. These are who I feel uneasy about so far toDay:

Brinn - just enough input to be visible, but feels careful. Noncommittal. Slippery.

Zil - if he's a wolf, he'll just hide under a cover of making sense.

Kitanna - jumpy, but maybe just an anxious ordo

Mac - scary. Yep, despite having only one post (I think) so far.

Boro - I don't know, I just don't trust him. And with 59 games under his belt, he seems like he's capable of unfathomable depths of deceit.

The rest fall into the categories of either talkative, speculative, and argumentative yet genuinely helpful OR practically non-existent. Or Shasta.


Ugh, I'm too tired, it's getting late, this took longer than I expected.


(Crossposted with likely so many people I won't even bother to enumerate)
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Old 05-05-2020, 08:34 AM   #104
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For someone so against, or possible skeptical of their use to him, Boro certainly has made a few. All of which kind of say the same thing. "These are people under the radar, these are people I think are wild cards, etc."

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
Boromir88 (Chime in with whatever floats your boats)
Speaks and seems logical on the surface, but on delving deeper, doesn't really say much.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
I find it funny how Legate was all reasonable and discuss-the-matter originally, and now he goes after all the people who cast that little bit of shadow on him.
His response does seem like a natural response when a player comes under fire like he did. Not to say I absolve him, but it doesn't strike me as overly wolfy behavior.
In the whole Legate, G55, and Pitch discussion I'd wager there's a wolf hidden, setting up two innocents to take the bait. Yet each time I read back, I switch who I think is most likely the wolf.
I thought Legate might be the innocent party until post #88
Something about the whole post feels, I don't know, contrived? I can't place my finger on it. Like G55 it feels like he's distancing himself from the fake DL, fake vote discussion.
I'm finding it hard to explain why this sets me off, but I'm going to try in the most coherent way.
Legate drew a lot of attention, but I didn't really feel many were overly suspicious of him. There's been some talk, but nothing to indicate everyone is convinced and ready to bandwagon. I'd say more people raised eyebrows toward G55 and Pitch, myself included, because of how G55 distanced herself from her idea and how Pitch threw it all into Legate's lap. In all that, Legate did look like a misguided, attempting to be helpful innocent. But maybe that's how he wants to be viewed? He's been helpful, at least, in stirring up conversation. And yet, his list post of his thoughts in #88 just rings of false platitudes and him trying to put himself under the radar again. He came, he made a lot of noise, and now just there with a list.
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Old 05-05-2020, 08:42 AM   #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Why did I pressure Legate rather than G55 re the fake votes? The difference between

1) G55 throwing out an idea to stir up a discussion, and

2) Legate picking it up and going "Oh yes that's a good idea let's totally do that!", when I thought it was a) not helpful and b) needlessly overcomplicating things. But my last note on him, on his reply to G55 in #44, was 'actually sensible?'
Ah, thank you. I won't say I'm 100% convinced - I don't remember getting the same feel as you describe from the G55/Legate posts before yours - but having some explanation helps.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Mac, really? You find it odd how I pinned the no-vote stuff on Legate, when earlier you yourself found it just as odd how enthusiastic he was about it? Now that I find odd! *ping*
... up until you become the fourth (third, if we accept Boro's assertion that he wasn't stating suspicion) person pointing fingers at Macalaure, which I still don't see.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhunardawen View Post
Hmm? Is this a slip?
Hah, I never even thought of that reading. Oddly enough, I did get a misdirected email today which went quiet very quickly when I said as much, so I think Customer Analytical Services looks veeeery suspicious right now.

hS

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Old 05-05-2020, 08:48 AM   #106
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Originally Posted by Lhunardawen View Post
The only logical reason a wolf would swing a last-minute vote from a non-wolf would be to protect a fellow wolf; it's far too early in the game to sacrifice a packmate (unless they play a bold game since there are a lot of them anyway). And with a village this large, the odds are still higher that votes will be cast against an innocent than a wolf.
Not necessarily. I've been in games where a wolf was lynched on Day 1 and a packmate went unsuspected for a long time because they were partly responsible for lynching them. It's certainly a risky move, but can pay off for a wolf who is daring enough.

FYI, I am doing my best to keep up here, but seeing that I'm in the midst of my workday up until deadline, my participation is limited.
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Old 05-05-2020, 08:51 AM   #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G55 #56 replying to THE Ka #51
So this is the second time toDay that a person implies a lack of evidence in people's early posts *squints at Lommy and Ka*. Are you in cahoots, or you're just both coincidentally trying to subtly turn people away from the idea of focusing on existing evidence and pretending all the evidence will come later?
Er, no. Ka didn't say there's no evidence in early posts, just that evidence is more concentrated, thus easier to find, in the last minute flurry than in the rest of the Day. This strikes me as twisting words and 'subtly turning' suspicion on both Lommy and Ka. *ping*



(By the way Ka, what are 'bunk confessionals'?)
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Last edited by Pitchwife; 05-05-2020 at 08:57 AM. Reason: EDIT: Fixed formattinhg (I hope)
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Old 05-05-2020, 08:52 AM   #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife
Unless there's a quarantined Seer AND the majority of the Cuties are innocent, the QT vote is just another vote that may be rght or wrong or misguided or driven by evil intentions like everybody else's. No way for us to know.
THIS.

Mac is amusing. But still scary.

Now to bed. I will wear a face mask as I sleep; I suggest you all do the same. Maybe this way the Evil Breath won't get us, who knows.
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Old 05-05-2020, 08:55 AM   #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
When it comes to single top suspects vs lists, both have their pros and cons and leave material to analyze later on. Me, I like lists. Here's one, just to get the ball rolling:

Pitchwife
G55
Macalaure
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
But you didn't indicate what is that a list of. Of what? Top suspects?
I read this as Rikae saying one suspect vs suspect list and then going for the list option. So I'm assuming this was a list of current suspects.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitanna
Because while I see how fake voting can help, clever baddies will find a way to exploit it.
A backpedaling innocent is going to do everything they can to stay alive for the good of the village and they're probably going to look guilty in their attempts. It just takes a few well-placed, persuasive posts to get a baffled innocent lynched.
Agreed. An innocent trying to change their mind, especially if prone to getting cross when defensive, is likely to end up as cannon fodder.

In a move so reminiscent of Lommy I almost had to check to make sure it wasn't her, Mr 'I don't do lists' Boro then immediately comes out with hundreds. Ok, two, but still.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
That's certainly a fair point. I mean whenever I'm a wolf I'm certainly trying to roleplay innocent me to a degree, and if you have established trademark quirks, it helps to follow those. So anyone sounding like a parody of their usual self is worth looking at.
I think it will be really interesting to see how those who are relative newbies to these games see the old-timers. Will they pick up on supposed traits/quirks or have we actually changed as players over time without realising? An end of game discussion on that will be fascinating!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
Mac, really? You find it odd how I pinned the no-vote stuff on Legate, when earlier you yourself found it just as odd how enthusiastic he was about it? Now that I find odd! *ping*
A Pitch vs Mac fight seems to be brewing ...

Lhuna!! We are Nilp-less and STILL we have been Nilp'ed!

By the way, I'm assuming all votes are final? I'm sure I've played in games where they can be taken back but am assuming not this one?
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:09 AM   #110
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Still reading. As far as I can see everyone has now posted?

I feel very confused about the point of this false deadline business. Is that an idea just for toDay or a more general thing? Either way, Mac is right that we can't get/expect 100% turnout on false deadlines because of people having genuine RL commitments, and then of course we will have wolves avoiding the false deadline, by claiming they were busy elsewhere.

One thing I'm looking out for. With five wolves about, I suspect some of them will be picking fights with each other - they can afford to do some showboaty bickering to divert attention from potential allegiances.

What in Arda is Lhuna doing? Honouring family traditions?
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:11 AM   #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Mac, really? You find it odd how I pinned the no-vote stuff on Legate, when earlier you yourself found it just as odd how enthusiastic he was about it? Now that I find odd! *ping*
Stop... pinging people!

Actually though, I went to reread your post, and I think I see where you're coming from, so never mind that.

You do seem tense though...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitanna
In the whole Legate, G55, and Pitch discussion I'd wager there's a wolf hidden, setting up two innocents to take the bait. Yet each time I read back, I switch who I think is most likely the wolf.
I don't like this kind of argument. It always feels to me like a wolf seeing a group of innoncents bashing each other and then going "One of them is a wolf!".

I know I'm guilty of contributing to it, but I think we're focusing on this whole LGP stuff too much now.


And why are people scared of me?
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:13 AM   #112
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Some thoughts on people I haven't talked about yet:


Brinn - low profile, mostly sounds very sensible, but could be anything. In #70 she almost copies Rikae's shortlist from the post before, with the exception of swapping Mac for Zil. I dunno, would that be too blatant for a baddie?
Then there's the short debate between her and G55 about whether dead wolves can PM. If either of them were a wolf, you'd expect they'd already have discussed that at Night, and possibly asked Nog about it, so this looks innocent, right? Unless that is what it's supposed to look like.



Ka - sensible, sounds genuine but mostly discusses mechanics, no or little opinions on people as far as I've seen. Could be anything.


Boro - his bubbly attitude of "it's D1, enjoy it, anything goes" is not what I'd expect from a wolf. Unless it's a facade, but leaning innocentish for now.


(tbc)
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:22 AM   #113
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Ok, they're not lists. See them as tabs...groups of tabs. Any attempt of mental lists scrambled me up so to try organizing I did groups, not lists.

If the DL was now I would vote for...

++In *No stop it.* ++Legate

Excluding anything I said myself so far, I concur with this point the most:
Quote:
Why did I pressure Legate rather than G55 re the fake votes? The difference between

1) G55 throwing out an idea to stir up a discussion, and

2) Legate picking it up and going "Oh yes that's a good idea let's totally do that!", when I thought it was a) not helpful and b) needlessly overcomplicating things. But my last note on him, on his reply to G55 in #44, was 'actually sensible?'~Pitch
There is a difference between the two.

Quote:
I find it very odd how very enthusiastic Legate is about this. My immediate thought was the one that Gala had, too: very cobblerish. A wolf wouldn't stick their head out that far, and one would expect an innocent person to be a bit more measured in their response, weighing pros and cons. Not saying a wolf can't fake a careful approach, of course.~Mac

What you must ask though is not "would a wolf stick their head out that early?" but would a Legate-wolf do it? With a pack of 5 there's higher incentive to start out bolder. Because it means you have 4 companions who can throw their weight around and steer it in favor or opposed to Legate depending on how the winds go. Where the rest of us rely only on ourselves.

Edit: Added "Mac" to the 2nd quote, to clarify that it was from him.
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:27 AM   #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitanna View Post
In the whole Legate, G55, and Pitch discussion I'd wager there's a wolf hidden, setting up two innocents to take the bait. Yet each time I read back, I switch who I think is most likely the wolf.
I've been going back and forth on who I think looks most wolf-like of those three, too. I tend to be more suspicious of G55 and Pitch at first glance, but I've had a very hard time getting a good feel on Legate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
It really struck me how strongly Pitch seemed to be pinning the no-vote concept on Legate, even though G55 had originally proposed it and (I think) had been the main proponent up to that point. I wondered whether this might be WolfPitch (PitchFector?) trying to put the heat on Legate specifically, but why not let it stay on G55? I think someone suggested that G55's backdown could be a wolf trying to pull away from a bad idea, which could mean WolfPitch was protecting GaladriWolf, but spotting two wolves at once seems a bit much for Day 1.

Or does it? On rethinking, catching wolves by their interactions with each other doesn't seem too far-fetched?
I also thought it was very interesting, after reading this, to see Pitch follow it up with:

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Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Er, no. Ka didn't say there's no evidence in early posts, just that evidence is more concentrated, thus easier to find, in the last minute flurry than in the rest of the Day. This strikes me as twisting words and 'subtly turning' suspicion on both Lommy and Ka. *ping*
Pitch brings up one of G55's first posts, which has been commented on before, and throws a bit of suspicion her way. This looks to me like Pitch doesn't want to be tied to G55 or seen as defending her, and it makes me more likely to believe Huin's hypothesis that they might both be wolves.
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:30 AM   #115
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I don't like this kind of argument. It always feels to me like a wolf seeing a group of innoncents bashing each other and then going "One of them is a wolf!".

I know I'm guilty of contributing to it, but I think we're focusing on this whole LGP stuff too much now.
Now this is interesting. I don't think I agree with the first paragraph - I still think there's something suspect going on in the LGP matrix - but as far as I can see, Mac is the main other person with multiple people throwing significant suspicion at them. I can't see a wolf in that position trying to divert attention from the only people diverting attention from them.

... unless that's the point? I dunno; I'd like to hear from some of the people who think Macalaure is dodgy, see how this post affects their thinking. (I would also still like to see more out of G55, and am I wrong, or did Lommy pop up after I said I was suspicious of her, then vanish again as soon as I said that had eased a bit?)

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Old 05-05-2020, 09:40 AM   #116
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Now this is interesting. I don't think I agree with the first paragraph - I still think there's something suspect going on in the LGP matrix - but as far as I can see, Mac is the main other person with multiple people throwing significant suspicion at them. I can't see a wolf in that position trying to divert attention from the only people diverting attention from them.
I find myself agreeing with Huin pretty frequently. I like his point here about Mac - I didn't pick up on the vibe about Mac that other people did to begin with, though.
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:41 AM   #117
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Okay there is too much going on to go thoroughly through it all, but after all I was never a list maker (right Boro?)

The person I worry the most about is probably G55. I do like that she gets the ball rolling, throwing ideas out there, but I do not care for the turn on legate in #38. If we talk about stuff as fluffy as vibes, she gives me both kinds, which is infuriating.

Just so you know I am biased (or blind) in some ways. I naturally suspect Loslote and Eonwe, I believe it has always been thus. I always want to believe the best of Lhuna, I know it has always been thus.


The people giving a wholesome vibe at the moment is Legate: Measured, nicely articulated why he thought it a good idea to force the hand of those infected. It obviously doesn't hurt that I agree with the strategy. And Pitch again I think he has a reasonable approach and do not try to fight strawmen or twist people's words.
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:47 AM   #118
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Hui - considering our last game together, a healthy dose of Pitchwolf paranoia is to be expected from him. Nothing standing out so far, leaning innocentish.


Rikae - seems their usual self


Shasta - see Rikae

Kath - cool, calm, collected and level-headed; almost too good to be true?


Kitanna - I generally like the way she makes her arguments, if not necessarily her conclusions (about myself at least), up to the point of "There must be a wolf among these three (but I haven't yet decided who)". Mac may be right pointing this out as a convenient wolf tactic, but since I'm wary of Mac himself, where does that leave me?
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:50 AM   #119
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I'm here and will be reading. I'll do most of my posting from the work computer, so toDay might be a bit quieter for me since I'm unexpectedly busy with projects.

Also, stop with this fake vote nonsense before it makes me properly suspect people. It doesn't make any sense.

And, because I promised: Links links links.
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:56 AM   #120
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Now this is interesting. I don't think I agree with the first paragraph - I still think there's something suspect going on in the LGP matrix - but as far as I can see, Mac is the main other person with multiple people throwing significant suspicion at them. I can't see a wolf in that position trying to divert attention from the only people diverting attention from them.
I don't think I've seen that many people suspecting Mac to a significant amount (Rikae, of course, myself a bit, who else?), more like saying he's creepy & scary no matter what. Anyway, it's always good for a wolf pack not to get all entangled in the same skirmish but spread themselves out in several combat zones, so to speak.
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