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Old 05-05-2020, 12:16 PM   #161
Galadriel55
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And again caught up to my previous post and xed with all since

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
As for sidestepping, I'm here to catch wolves, not get bogged down justifying the steps I took to do so.
This is just about the worst thing you can say to improve my opinion. So now you should get a free card to do whatever and not have your words questioned, because it's in the name of catching wolves? That is quite an irritable and jumpy response to a bit of pressure.

However:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
Anyway, right now my fake vote would go to:

++Brinniel

For immediately repeating 2 of 3 names from my list as suspicions, and then backtracking explicitly to avoid getting caught in a trap right after I explained to G55 that my post was intended as a wolf trap. That was ostensibly a reply to Mac saying the group was mostly innocent, but the coincidence is just too much for me to ignore.

I know, these are the kinds of things a wolf would definitely make sure not to do, right? Right. So much so, it could be used as cover. And an innocent doing them coincidentally? That feels like a bigger stretch to me.
This actually makes sense, and doesn't ring evil.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
This was still very early on Day 1, and frankly, I am not sure what in this post you think is so inaccurate. Is it a bit tongue in cheek? Yeah, maybe. But I'm pretty sure everything Rikae summarized actually was part of the early banter and tentative strategy talk. If you were a wolf, I could see you not wanting to focus on the other members of the G55-Legate-Pitch tangle, and wanting to try to start up a distracting bandwagon. I honestly don't really see the motivation for an ordo to devote this much energy towards a suspicion that isn't really built on much of anything. If we were doing the bonus vote, I would definitely be voting for G55 at this point.
Read that post again. And then try to match the statements with an actual post. See how that matches up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
Is it just me, or is hypothetically contemplating possible Wolf victories not entirely the action of an innocent villager?
Only if hypothetically contemplating possible village victories is not entirely the action of a Wolf.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huinesoron View Post
Okay, I think I've caught up with the ever-moving present. I feel like the Day has split into three phases: phase 1 being the actual discussion over the fake votes idea, phase two being reactions to and suspicions over the parts people played in it, and now phase 3 is suspicion over those reactions. I want to reread phase 2, because I think phase 4 (analysing the current suspicions) is likely to be too deep down the rabbit hole: we'll all be looking at so many levels of info that you could form a plausible suspicion of everyone!
This is hilariously accurate.




I have online lectures starting in under an hour, so while I might pop in for a brief comment throughout the remainder of the Day I will vote before they start, in case things happen too quickly and I end up missing the deadline.
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:21 PM   #162
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Galadriel55 View Post
This is just about the worst thing you can say to improve my opinion. So now you should get a free card to do whatever and not have your words questioned, because it's in the name of catching wolves? That is quite an irritable and jumpy response to a bit of pressure.
Is it? So be it. You keep waffling on whether I'm suspicious or not, but if you really think I'm your best bet, go ahead and vote for me.

I explained what I was doing, and you ignored it and demanded an explanation again ... and again. I call that getting bogged down. It is what it is, and there is nothing more to say. That post is not the justification for my current top suspects (torn between Brinniel and you, for actions after that post). Anyone who finds my explanation of that post unsatisfying is welcome to vote for me.
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:34 PM   #163
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I'd actually be surprised if there isn't at least one wolf among Rikae, Brinn, Kitanna and Lottie. The later on the Pitchwagon, the likelier.



G55 is all over the place, fairly confrontational, sometimes eyebrow-raising (about Urwen/Maeglin: really?). Her all-out attack on Rikae just now does sound a lot like passionate innocent though and makes me feel better about her.
Paradoxically, so does Rikae's response so far.
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Last edited by Pitchwife; 05-05-2020 at 12:38 PM. Reason: EDIT: x-ed with #161/62
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:36 PM   #164
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Instead of rereading, I wrote a list to try and figure out who I need to reread. And, presumably, cross-posting with about a page's worth of stuff

Lhuna – I’m not a fan of self-voting, and don’t agree with her on hating Day 1s – though I appreciate that’s a matter of opinion. Says she feels uneasy about Brinn, Inzil, Kitanna, Mac and Boro in the same post where she votes for herself. This could be convenient for a wolf as she’s effectively washing her hands of the whole lynch while still casting suspicion around, but on the other hand, would a wolf really go to the extent of voting for herself to avoid being associated with lynching somebody? It would be a flamboyantly risky move and I’m not sure if it would be worth it. Leaning innocent.

Kitanna – Called jumpy or tense by Lhuna and Gal55. Rune brings up a fair point on potential opportunism in how she latched on to Lhuna’s first post as suspicious. Need a reread.

Boro – Chirpy but I agree with Lommy that he's being oddly noncommittal. One to watch.

Lommy - Seemed a little on edge earlier regarding Gal and Legate’s fake-vote-plan, but was quite blasé about Huin’s suspicion of her (to the point of saying she’s doing exactly what she’d do as a wolf) which makes me more inclined to think she’s innocent than not. *** Okay since I wrote that she has said Huin is shady for suspecting her because she thinks she’s acting innocent. ??? I'd say that's just chirpy Lommy happy to be playing again but putting Huin on her suspect list because she thinks she looks innocent and he should agree is a bit strange even for her.

Legate – I don’t agree with a lot of what he’s saying but I’m leaning innocent on him too. Also potentially noteworthy though is his disagreement with those who think he is being framed. The convenient wolf thing to do in his circumstances would be to tacitly agree and play the “poor framed me” card (also takes care of finding someone to legitimately vote for), though admittedly an ordo feeling unjustly under fire could also be likely to believe he was being framed. But whatever his motives, Legate isn’t doing this.

The Ka – Calm and collected and reasonable. The trouble is, I know she can sound just as reasonable when she’s evil as when she’s not. Need a reread.

Brinn –This caught my eye:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
I'm still a bit wary of G55 and Pitchwife (less so of the former), however I don't want to get caught in a trap. I think I will stay clear of this potential mess for toDay and focus elsewhere.
This is almost too blatantly convenient: keeping the perceived main suspects under fire by saying she is wary of them, but explicitly saying she will stay clear of the potential mess and go for someone else. My only concern is over whether a Brinnwolf would really say that so directly. Still, this is the fishiest thing I’ve seen so far so definitely merits a reread.

Kath - So far I agree with Gal55’s assessment of likely ordo figuring things out as she goes.

Rikae – Always tricky, but I like what I see so far – feels like an innocent Rikae poking around for reactions. Has a curious back and forth with Gal55.

Gal55 – Introduced the fake-vote-plan, then backtracked and found Legate odd for agreeing with it. More trigger-happy than most – suspected Lommy and Ka early on for disregarding early posts as evidence, which would have been a fair point but I read their comments more as offhand remarks on specific posts rather than serious arguments about the usefulness of early posts. Now very, very vocal against Rikae. Could be too chaotic for a wolf.

Rune – Brief, to the point, nothing to alarm (or reassure) me so far.

Eonwe - Careful and sensible, nothing alarming yet either. Hard to judge though as he seems sensible even when he's a wolf!

Inzil – I see my classic trap of getting nervous about Inzil because I don’t suspect him. Need a reread.

Mac – Interesting back and forth with Pitchwife where they’re essentially suspecting each other of doing things they do themselves. Suspected by Rikae and Legate, defended by Huin. No major alarm bells so far.

Pitchwife – I actually found his aforementioned interactions with Mac more interesting than those with Gal55 and Legate, but need a reread to figure any of it out.

Huinesoron – Doesn’t follow the herd and brings up points others haven’t. Suspected Lommy, defended Mac. I get a good vibe so far, though worth keeping an eye on.

Urwen – Nothing to analyse yet, hope she makes another appearance
Lalaith – Haven’t seen much of her yet either
Shasta – Come back please
Sally – You too

Lottie – Flying completely under my radar, which is odd considering she’s been around a fair bit. Definitely need a reread.


EDIT: x-ed since Eonwe's list
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:37 PM   #165
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White Tree Clarifications

To answer & comment two things.


There are no retractable votes aka. voting with highlighted letters is final.

You may make "fake-votes", but please make them clearly different, as you have nicly done thus far (I actually liked Lommy's version of using +- in front of the vote).


Quote:
Originally Posted by G55
Speaking of hypothetical ideas, this scenario kinda came into my mind last night. So, it's the EndGame, and alive are Wolf, Hunter (hunting the Wolf), and Ordo. Ordo dies. Wolf devours Hunter, but Hunter takes down the wolf. Does either side win?
If that is the situation on the end of the Day and the Ordo is voted out, then Wolves win, because at the start of the Night it is 1-1 which by default means Wolf-victory.

If we go into the Night with those three, the Wolf has, purely numerically, 75% chance on winning. Picking the Ordo by Night the Wolf wins: when Day breaks it's 1-1. Picking the Hunter the wolf has 50-50 chance of winning, depending on whether the Hunter hunts the Wolf or the Ordo.

In Real Game circumstances the odds surely are different because there can be well founded suspicions or even knowledge involved in the picks the last players make.
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:43 PM   #166
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I don't know how the whole Gala/Rikae thing blew up.

Rikae made an error in their summary a good while ago, and admitted it in #128, but Gala is insisting that it was an intentional error? Seems far-fetched to me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by G55
Being curt is one thing, being deliberately wrong is another. And she just - sidesteps - the questioning from myself and Mac, like that post never happened.
Wait right there... as far as I'm concerned, my questions are answered!

How are you so sure that it was deliberate?

Quote:
Originally Posted by G55
bombastically inaccurate



Anyway...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
Do people like Mac without butter?
I'm pretty good raw, but butter just really brings out my flavor.


And fake votes, eh?

+-Macalaure

Chew on that!

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Old 05-05-2020, 12:44 PM   #167
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I might not make it back before the DL, so I'll cast my vote now.

I really can't make up my mind about G55 and I feel like her current behavior could possibly throw my judgement off. I'm keeping my eye on her, but:

++Brinniel

For reasons previously listed (opportunism, avoiding a trap), and a general safe-wolf, tiptoe-around-the-edges vibe.
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:45 PM   #168
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Okay, took a quick look back at some posts. Regarding the whole Legate/G55/Pitchwife bit, I find Kitanna's reactions most suspicious. She seems quick to point out that there is likely a wolf among the group.
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:49 PM   #169
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A little past 3 hours until deadline...

A tally of "I would vote for"

Shasta for Lommy (This was before the half-way point of Day 1. I wouldn't read it as something Shasta would stick to now. It was his last slight spurt of posting)
Boro for Legate (post 113 for a reference)
Rikae for Brinn (post 148)
Lommy for Boro (post 150)
Legate for Kitanna (post 151)
Lottie for G55 (post 152, but I think the reasoning is from post 149)

If I missed anyone's sorry...hard to kind spot them. Those were the ones that I already specifically noted. So, yeah, Day 1 shots in the dark. It is rather interesting to judge and look at what's going on.

Quote:
Boro - he's really weird in this game. Yeah yeah, maybe he's just happy to play again. Or maybe his playing style changed over the years when we were not playing. But I'm mostly worried about the fact that he's not half as confrontational as usual, but instead posting long introspective rambles where he conveniently doesn't have to go toe-to-toe with anyone.~Lommy
Take this however, but true, it's exactly my tone right now. True, I like to get in there and pick fights, but find the task hard to do on Day 1. How do you get right in there after someone based on completely random reasons? I find the task difficult and then get more aggressive as more solid reasons come in.

Then with some of the other kerfuffles taking place today, I hold back being involved to let the plot play out. Not all planning is evil and I try to avoid drawing attention towards people until I'm more sure of intent.

The one thing I was most certain of agreeing with today was Pitch's comment that there was a difference in that LGP group between Legate's "enthusiasm" in jumping on G55's question to stir conversation. If I'm reading correctly now. Did Pitch sort of back away from suspecting G55, to defending G55, and back track again? I'm going back through those interactions, because if true, that does ping more to my fight senses than anything else today.

And then the true vote tally...

Lhuna for Lhuna

Edit: crossed with everything since last post on Page 4
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:50 PM   #170
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Read up to Nog's post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
It was indeed an exaggeration and over-generalization to see how people reacted, and you are certainly reacting.
Indeed! I react when I see false information. I expect everyone to do so and I'm very disappointed in the village for not doing the same.

Whereas you did the opposite. The first couple times I put you under a bit of pressure and asked for an explanation of that post you avoided the topic altogether. Then you stated you aren't here to explain yourself. And when I put my arguments forward - then you started partially explaining where your statements came from. You're not the only one who can gauge reactions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
Inzil agreed with Mac. At least that's how I read "Hmm. Perhaps."
Last time I checked the word "perhaps" means consideration, not agreement. See below.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Actually, you know what?

What was I supposed to be deliberately misrepresenting? G55, you never did answer that.
Do you mean to say that your phrasing was not deliberate? "Conclusion"? "Agreed"? "Decided"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Is it? So be it. You keep waffling on whether I'm suspicious or not, but if you really think I'm your best bet, go ahead and vote for me.

I explained what I was doing, and you ignored it and demanded an explanation again ... and again. I call that getting bogged down. It is what it is, and there is nothing more to say. That post is not the justification for my current top suspects (torn between Brinniel and you, for actions after that post). Anyone who finds my explanation of that post unsatisfying is welcome to vote for me.
First of all, I might just do that. In fact, since I declared my false-vote, you've been acting so jumpy that you haven't done much to dissuade me.

Secondly, keep in mind that all of our posts are cross-posted, and therefore most of my posts have cross-posted with an explanation.
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:52 PM   #171
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OK, Brinn, it's not like you yourself didn't suspect two out of three earlier, right? But I suppose that wasn't saying there's a wolf in there? And you find that suspicious from Kit now, after Mac already said so?
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:57 PM   #172
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
Okay, took a quick look back at some posts. Regarding the whole Legate/G55/Pitchwife bit, I find Kitanna's reactions most suspicious. She seems quick to point out that there is likely a wolf among the group.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
OK, Brinn, it's not like you yourself didn't suspect two out of three earlier, right? But I suppose that wasn't saying there's a wolf in there? And you find that suspicious from Kit now, after Mac already said so?
Yeah, I don't trust that from Brinn. I think she's suspected Kit before now, but that particular post doesn't seem like it's adding anything new to the conversation. I'm not sure how to read her non-reaction to the suspicion thrown her way - would a wolf just...not really engage with that? I definitely see why people are suspecting her, but there are some other factors that look more innocent, so I'm pretty torn on Brinn.
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:00 PM   #173
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Boro!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
A little past 3 hours until deadline...
I hope you noted you posted this 2 hours and 11 minutes before the Deadline, not about three hours before it?

The Deadline is, as of right now, exactly two hours.

In following Days this is the time when the QT vote is released.
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:01 PM   #174
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
If I'm reading correctly now. Did Pitch sort of back away from suspecting G55, to defending G55, and back track again?
You're reading correctly that I'm flipflopping bigtime about her, yes, but more in the reverse order... I think.



Eönwë's list was such a mass of 'don't know', 'not sure', 'could be this could be that' as to put Mr Agreeable himself to shame.
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:01 PM   #175
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Here and reading.
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:03 PM   #176
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++ Rikae

Not for her accidental mistake of misreading Mac's post as a suspicion of wolvery rather than cobblery, as has been said above. But for failure (still) to explain one of the parts for which I can find no post, for failure to admit her mistake about Inzil, and most of all for her insistence that she own no one an explanation and her jumpy irritability when questioned.

If it was not Rikae, it would be Brin. However, I still wasn't able to do a full Brin-read, and besides, there is more than one wolf in this village, so maybe we will both turn out right. I stand by my suspicion.


I will predictably be crossed since my last post.
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:03 PM   #177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
I hope you noted you posted this 2 hours and 11 minutes before the Deadline, not about three hours before it?

The Deadline is, as of right now, exactly two hours.

In following Days this is the time when the QT vote is released.
Oh my. Thank you. Yeah that could have turned out screwing up my timeline
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:04 PM   #178
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I'm not sure what to make of Gal55’s conviction that Rikae is guilty. I read Rikae’s first post as slightly tongue-in-cheek, not unlike tongue-in-cheek summaries by other players early in the game. Rikae said Mac suspected Legate of being a wolf when he actually suspected him of being a cobbler, and later explained that this was a mistake.

Honestly? Yes, a wolf might exaggerate something their target said or take it out of context in order to make a case, but deliberately lying about what another player said on the thread would be something else. It would be a really low move and I can’t imagine Rikae (or anyone else here, for that matter) doing that whatever their role. I could see Gal55 as an ordo who believes she’s caught a wolf and is frustrated that her views aren’t getting support; but equally, I could see a nervous Galwolf trying to make a big case against someone other than herself.


EDIT: x-ed with Gal and Boro
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:06 PM   #179
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
Yeah, I don't trust that from Brinn. I think she's suspected Kit before now, but that particular post doesn't seem like it's adding anything new to the conversation. I'm not sure how to read her non-reaction to the suspicion thrown her way - would a wolf just...not really engage with that? I definitely see why people are suspecting her, but there are some other factors that look more innocent, so I'm pretty torn on Brinn.
You don't trust her because she is reaffirming a suspicion and thus not bringing anything new to table? I want to make sure I understand the reasoning behind your suspicion correctly, as Brinniel is not one I have paid particular attention to.
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:10 PM   #180
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Originally Posted by Galadriel55 View Post
Indeed! I react when I see false information. I expect everyone to do so and I'm very disappointed in the village for not doing the same.
Yes, it's a shame the village doesn't share your conviction that an error from someone who, conveniently, suspects you isn't a clear sign of wolvishness.

Quote:
Whereas you did the opposite. The first couple times I put you under a bit of pressure and asked for an explanation of that post you avoided the topic altogether. Then you stated you aren't here to explain yourself. And when I put my arguments forward - then you started partially explaining where your statements came from. You're not the only one who can gauge reactions.
But between the two of us, the only one who might be gauging them correctly. You actually seem to think I'm afraid of you.

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Last time I checked the word "perhaps" means consideration, not agreement. See below.
Thanks for the English lesson.

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Do you mean to say that your phrasing was not deliberate? "Conclusion"? "Agreed"? "Decided"?
What in Arda are you even talking about?

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First of all, I might just do that. In fact, since I declared my false-vote, you've been acting so jumpy that you haven't done much to dissuade me.
What makes you think I'm trying to dissuade you? If you want to make some illogical case against me, honestly, you'll probably just end up hurting yourself in the long run.

Edit: X'd with G55, Boro, Green, Rune
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:11 PM   #181
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Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
I'm not sure what to make of Gal55’s conviction that Rikae is guilty. I read Rikae’s first post as slightly tongue-in-cheek, not unlike tongue-in-cheek summaries by other players early in the game. Rikae said Mac suspected Legate of being a wolf when he actually suspected him of being a cobbler, and later explained that this was a mistake.

Honestly? Yes, a wolf might exaggerate something their target said or take it out of context in order to make a case, but deliberately lying about what another player said on the thread would be something else. It would be a really low move and I can’t imagine Rikae (or anyone else here, for that matter) doing that whatever their role. I could see Gal55 as an ordo who believes she’s caught a wolf and is frustrated that her views aren’t getting support; but equally, I could see a nervous Galwolf trying to make a big case against someone other than herself.
It's not a WW game without me and Rikae getting into a flame war, isn't it?

Edit: xed with the lady herself
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:11 PM   #182
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Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne View Post
You don't trust her because she is reaffirming a suspicion and thus not bringing anything new to table? I want to make sure I understand the reasoning behind your suspicion correctly, as Brinniel is not one I have paid particular attention to.
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Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
Okay, took a quick look back at some posts. Regarding the whole Legate/G55/Pitchwife bit, I find Kitanna's reactions most suspicious. She seems quick to point out that there is likely a wolf among the group.
Partially. The other issue for me is the way she frames it - she took a quick look back, and the only thing she found worth posting was a re-phrasing of something other people have said? She's said before that she suspects Kit, and that post feels more like she's restating other people's points to add to her own justification for suspicion. Also, I don't like that she didn't mention anyone else, either to compare to Kit's reaction or to mention that other people were also suspicious. At any rate, I don't trust her, but I'm not necessarily saying I suspect her, if that makes sense. I'd put her with Boro in a "keep an eye on" group.
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:12 PM   #183
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Okay, I've stolen a little more time on the actual computer to read over "Phase 2" (people's comments on the G55/Legate/Pitch debate). Note that this does not mean I no longer suspect Pitch, G55, and Lommy (in no particular order); just that I'm consciously examining the rest of the village too. (I'm also not highlighting every post that's part of "Phase 2"; just the ones that jump out at me.)

I think Phase Two starts around #52, when Macalaure considers Legate cobblerish, but the first post that jumps out is Rikae, #69, which asserts that:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?
... which, putting those side by side, is actually straight-up wrong. Mac suggested the possibility of Legate-Wolf, but mostly came down on cobbler.

Hang on, didn't I see the number #69 on the current page? Right, yes, G55 caught it in #156. Which I guess suggests that a Rikae-G55 pack is unlikely?

Interestingly, I think this is also the first post to suspect Macalaure, which puts Rikae doubly in my 'worrisome' category. We'll see where it goes.

#71: Brinniel suggests there could be 'no wolves involved' in the fake-vote discussion, then says she's wary of both Pitch and G55. Not a very consistent position, but useful if Legate seemed in need of protection.

#72: G55 catches the error ('error'?) in #69, but presents it in a joking manner, so it doesn't really get picked up.

#78: Lommy approves of the fake-vote discussion for getting things rolling, and pins the credit on Legate - but also immediately rejects it as 'an insane idea' and wonders aloud why Legate would do it. These are within the very same sentence, which I guess is that "trademark flipflopping" at work (that phrase comes up in this same post). It's also a really convenient way to either make an innocent look bad without coming on too strong, or to make a fellow wolf look good without seeming like you're on their side. So it says nothing about Legate, but something about Lommy.

#81: Conveniently at the top of page 3, Kath lays out Phase 1 almost precisely (she stops with Mac's post that I see as the start of Phase 2). I think this post will be a oft-used reference for Phase 1, if we wind up still discussing it after toDay (I believe it's the 'evolutionary' post Legate later refers to). She mostly sticks to the facts, so it's hard to get a read off her here.

#91: Lommy. Not particularly striking for its Phase 2 content, but for the 'I would definitely play up my flipflopping if I were a wolf' she gave to me. I'm afraid I dropped the ball on this one - I'd forgotten what I said by the time I saw what she said, so I just took 'that's a fair point' and moved on. It's really making me suspicious right now.

#95: Kitanna discusses a Galadriwolf or PitchWolf, but interestingly doesn't suggest a pack. She does seem to suggest G55 and Rikae as a pack with this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitanna
*side eyes both [G55 & Rikae]* Orchestrated wolf action? I suppose not likely, but the more I read of G55 the more I raise my eyebrows.
She could be a wolf using this to pile suspicion on G55? I'm not strongly suspicious of this one, though.

#97: Mac finds Legate suspicious for going after all his accusers. This could be a slightly dodgy claim (I feel like going after anyone who accuses you is pretty classic Werewolf), but it doesn't worry me overmuch.

#98 & #100: Pitch continues to suspect Legate, but also pitches (sorry) in on Mac. Still thinking about how this interacts with G55's interactions with Rikae, who also suspected Mac.

#104: Kitanna suspects a wolf in the GLP, but can't decide who. Really interestingly, she says she didn't suspect Legate until #88 - but her previous post was #95, where she didn't mention this suspicion. Cross-posting is possible, I guess?

#109: Kath. It looks like Phase 2 might be winding up, as she's starting to analyse interactions from it (Mac and Pitch).

#113: Boro discusses Legate-Wolf, but is pretty non-committal. Could be seen as a light defence of wolf-Legate? Or as a light attack on innocent-Legate? But nothing overly strong.

I think that's the bulk of Phase 2. I'm dubious about Rikae, but the one who jumps out at me is Lommy. I've had... three or four different suspicions of her at this point, I think? I'm still worried about Pitch, and to an extent G55 (but mostly by association with PitchWolf, unless I'm forgetting something), but Lommy is at the top of my list.

Right, checking the last few posts to see what's changed...

Okay, G55 reminds of that odd 'hey what if this specific scenario happened, would I still be a wolf winner?' question, so I guess I do have something else on her. Mac points out that Rikae's misrepresentation of him could be a simple mistake (I think someone's misattributed something to me somewhere, though I can't find it), which does make G55's continued pulling on the thread somewhat sketchy.

There's a lot of suspicion on Brinn in the last few posts (I see Rikae, Pitch, and Loslote), which seems to have come a bit out of nowhere. Did it build over the course of page 4? Ah, looks like it did, including G55's comment that Brinn 'seems to post without leaving any impression'. That tallies with what I'm getting, but I've not gotten any impression that she's up to something.

... but Lommy has, as maybe the third or fourth person to cast suspicion on her (in #144 she dedicates her longest paragraph to contrasting her with Eonwe).

Okay, I should be able to actually-vote later, and in the event that we see a G55/Pitch vs Legate breakdown I will vote for one of the former, but for now my not-vote sits on +-Lommy.

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Old 05-05-2020, 01:13 PM   #184
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Not for her accidental mistake of misreading Mac's post as a suspicion of wolvery rather than cobblery, as has been said above. But for failure (still) to explain one of the parts for which I can find no post, for failure to admit her mistake about Inzil, and most of all for her insistence that she own no one an explanation and her jumpy irritability when questioned.
Oh wow.

If you mean why I said Inzil suspected Legate, I did explain it, and you responded to it with your little English lesson, so please don't try to tell me that was crossposted as well.

I can't imagine what could possibly be irritating me. Obviously only a wolf would be annoyed by this.
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:18 PM   #185
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It's not a WW game without me and Rikae getting into a flame war, isn't it?

Edit: xed with the lady herself
Not my idea of fun, and I tried to avoid it. Please don't call me "lady".
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:22 PM   #186
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Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
Partially. The other issue for me is the way she frames it - she took a quick look back, and the only thing she found worth posting was a re-phrasing of something other people have said? She's said before that she suspects Kit, and that post feels more like she's restating other people's points to add to her own justification for suspicion. Also, I don't like that she didn't mention anyone else, either to compare to Kit's reaction or to mention that other people were also suspicious. At any rate, I don't trust her, but I'm not necessarily saying I suspect her, if that makes sense. I'd put her with Boro in a "keep an eye on" group.
Where did she first voice suspicion of Kitanna, I must have missed it.

She mentions Inzil, Pitchwife and G55 early on, sticks with Inzil for a while and then switches to Kitanna in her latest post #168.
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:23 PM   #187
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I'm not sure how to read her non-reaction to the suspicion thrown her way - would a wolf just...not really engage with that?
It's Day 1, so people are bound to throw suspicion in the wrong direction, so no I'm not worried if some people are wary of me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
OK, Brinn, it's not like you yourself didn't suspect two out of three earlier, right? But I suppose that wasn't saying there's a wolf in there? And you find that suspicious from Kit now, after Mac already said so?
I don't recall what Mac said...it's hard to keep up with all the posts. It was just an observation I made as looked back at several posts referring to you. And yes I still do find you on the slightly suspicious side, but I don't think enough to vote you. G55's exchange with Rikae makes me more inclined to think her innocent (seems like a squabble between two innocents really).
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:30 PM   #188
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I'm not sure what to make of Gal55’s conviction that Rikae is guilty. I read Rikae’s first post as slightly tongue-in-cheek, not unlike tongue-in-cheek summaries by other players early in the game. Rikae said Mac suspected Legate of being a wolf when he actually suspected him of being a cobbler, and later explained that this was a mistake.

Honestly? Yes, a wolf might exaggerate something their target said or take it out of context in order to make a case, but deliberately lying about what another player said on the thread would be something else. It would be a really low move and I can’t imagine Rikae (or anyone else here, for that matter) doing that whatever their role. I could see Gal55 as an ordo who believes she’s caught a wolf and is frustrated that her views aren’t getting support; but equally, I could see a nervous Galwolf trying to make a big case against someone other than herself.


EDIT: x-ed with Gal and Boro
Based on nothing more than this description of events I'd speculate on Cobbler-G55 and Innocent-Rikae. My opinion may change after I get context.
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:31 PM   #189
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I had a quick look at Kitanna. I don't really get a nervous or on-edge vibe from her like some others have said. She does seem quite quick to low-level suspect - early on she says Lhuna is suspicious for explicitly not posting anything of content when there would already have been stuff to comment on; she speculates on Gal and Rikae being potential wolf-on-wolf (this was before it developed into an all-out war) and suspects Gal for her reaction to the fake-vote-plan debacle and for being too helpful, speculates on Pitch being an opportunistic wolf for his role in said debacle, and says Legate seems the most innocent of the trio but thinks his list post is suspicious.

I don't necessarily think this amounts to suspicious behaviour from Kitanna - she definitely started suspecting people (using that actual word) earlier than most, and has used it of more people than most, but if anything it makes me feel better about her. A wolf might want to appear more consistent, or less confrontational. My current vibe is more of an ordo stirring the pot and voicing early bad vibes in order to get discussion going.

The only thing I was wary of was her argument that there is likely to be a wolf in the Pitch-Gal-Legate -trio - as others have pointed out, there's no basis for this really but it would be a very convenient idea for a wolf to advocate.

In sum, not convinced either way but leaning more innocent than not.


EDIT: x-ed with Shasta
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:33 PM   #190
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Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
Partially. The other issue for me is the way she frames it - she took a quick look back, and the only thing she found worth posting was a re-phrasing of something other people have said? She's said before that she suspects Kit, and that post feels more like she's restating other people's points to add to her own justification for suspicion. Also, I don't like that she didn't mention anyone else, either to compare to Kit's reaction or to mention that other people were also suspicious. At any rate, I don't trust her, but I'm not necessarily saying I suspect her, if that makes sense. I'd put her with Boro in a "keep an eye on" group.
Bah. "Keep an eye on" is not a moniker I'm comfortable with in terms of being vague.
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:39 PM   #191
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Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
A little past 3 hours until deadline...

A tally of "I would vote for"

Shasta for Lommy (This was before the half-way point of Day 1. I wouldn't read it as something Shasta would stick to now. It was his last slight spurt of posting)
It's worth noting nothing so far has swayed me on Lommy in that she was my first real ping, but she deserves a thorough re-read.

Much more interesting and pressing is Pitch/Eonwe, in my mind. Rikae/G55 has played itself out, in my opinion - Rikae reads innocent to me and the jury's still out on G55, though I'd lean Cobbler over Wolf if she's evil, based on the timing.
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:40 PM   #192
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Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
You're reading correctly that I'm flipflopping bigtime about her, yes, but more in the reverse order... I think.



Eönwë's list was such a mass of 'don't know', 'not sure', 'could be this could be that' as to put Mr Agreeable himself to shame.
This, I want more context on this.
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:41 PM   #193
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This, I want more context on this.
Which part of it?
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:43 PM   #194
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
I don't know how the whole Gala/Rikae thing blew up.

Rikae made an error in her summary a good while ago, and admitted it in #128, but Gala is insisting that it was an intentional error? Seems far-fetched to me.
I started to sense it less as a trial and more just head butting over play styles. They both know how to put the pressure on and have a very direct approach. With that in mind as I’ve noted before, I’m not curious about those who’ve been the most direct. I’m wondering about those who’ve been on their sidelines during the debate. That’s an awfully safe shadow to nod along in…

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
I'd actually be surprised if there isn't at least one wolf among Rikae, Brinn, Kitanna and Lottie. The later on the Pitchwagon, the likelier.
Well, that wouldn’t be Kitanna late to that bandwagon…

I’ve re-read five of their posts since #36 and they’ve went from very iffy to consistent accusation against you, I’ll give them that at least.
What I’m more suspicious of, is those riding in their wake first with the Legate-G55-Pitch and now with G55-Rikae.

Between Brinn and Loslote, Brinn is playing far safer in their submarine by just throwing a ‘I have a hunch’ dart at Zil and following the G55-Rikae debate with mild defense of the Day 1 blues. That’s safe and yes, even villagers could take up that tactic, but this consistently? Hrrm.

I would have suspected Loslote for trying to play it too safe in the shadow of G55-Rikae with their comment about latching onto bandwagons and trying to cozy up to Rikae with a consistent criticism of G55’s arguments, but they do later begin to step out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote
If you were a wolf, I could see you not wanting to focus on the other members of the G55-Legate-Pitch tangle, and wanting to try to start up a distracting bandwagon.
For all my suspicions, that’s a pretty valid point. One that began to make me doubt Loslote of obvious wolfish hiding.

On the flip side, G55 and Rikae have played pretty true to character, so it’s not odd at all for them to butt heads. If orchestrated for the sake of distraction as Kit suspects in post #95, it’s going rather well for whoever needs that cover.

Between the two, only Loslote has when come under fire participated in giving a reason why at least for their support for either side in either debate, while Brinn so far as I’ve caught up, has shied away consistently. It makes me all the more suspicious Brinn is playing it entirely too safe out of the two.
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:48 PM   #195
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Based on nothing more than this description of events I'd speculate on Cobbler-G55 and Innocent-Rikae. My opinion may change after I get context.
This actually makes sense. I could believe Cobbler-G55. I read Rikae as innocent through the whole exchange, and I do not read G55 as innocent at all, but she could go either cobbler or wolf for me.
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:51 PM   #196
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I won't be around near the deadline, so I'll have to vote soon, and I don't know who for.

Legate seems fairly fine, actually. Pitch still seems tense to me, but that alone is not enough. The way Gala went all out after Rikae makes me think she's innocent. Rikae's response doesn't point in either direction, so I don't have anything there either. Inzil is suspiciously unsuspicious (for his standards). Huin seems reasonable. Boro plays with the pressure-less cheer of an ordo. I feel fairly good about Greenie and THE Ka. Many people are quiet. I don't have any opinion on a whole bunch yet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel
It's Day 1, so people are bound to throw suspicion in the wrong direction, so no I'm not worried if some people are wary of me.
This is odd. Some innocents have a habit of seeing wolves behind every accusation against them, which isn't helpful either, but usually people at least look closely and make their judgement - not because they're afraid of getting lynched necessarily, but to hunt for wolves. This comment only mentions self preservation.
Some wolves do it this way, as to not draw the village's attention to any suspicions.

Looking at Brinniel's past posts, there's some mild suspicion towards G55, Pitch, Legate, Inzil, then Kitanna later, but it's quite lukewarm. On Legate:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel
Is it suspicious? Perhaps, but not necessarily.
I wish I had noticed this one earlier. That's wolfie way to word things.
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:57 PM   #197
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Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
Instead of rereading, I wrote a list to try and figure out who I need to reread. And, presumably, cross-posting with about a page's worth of stuff

Lhuna – I’m not a fan of self-voting, and don’t agree with her on hating Day 1s – though I appreciate that’s a matter of opinion. Says she feels uneasy about Brinn, Inzil, Kitanna, Mac and Boro in the same post where she votes for herself. This could be convenient for a wolf as she’s effectively washing her hands of the whole lynch while still casting suspicion around, but on the other hand, would a wolf really go to the extent of voting for herself to avoid being associated with lynching somebody? It would be a flamboyantly risky move and I’m not sure if it would be worth it. Leaning innocent.
I wouldn't go that far. Nilp-esque self-votes don't strike me as alignment-indicative for some people, and Lhuna is one of those people (from what I can recall, anyway, it's been quite some time!)

Quote:
Kitanna – Called jumpy or tense by Lhuna and Gal55. Rune brings up a fair point on potential opportunism in how she latched on to Lhuna’s first post as suspicious. Need a reread.

Boro – Chirpy but I agree with Lommy that he's being oddly noncommittal. One to watch.
I don't know if I agree that opportunism this early makes sense; I also tend to think, based on Greenie's read of the situation, that Rune ought to look just as opportunistic, but doesn't for some reason? Why's that, Greenie?

Shrug re: Boro.

Quote:
Lommy - Seemed a little on edge earlier regarding Gal and Legate’s fake-vote-plan, but was quite blasé about Huin’s suspicion of her (to the point of saying she’s doing exactly what she’d do as a wolf) which makes me more inclined to think she’s innocent than not. *** Okay since I wrote that she has said Huin is shady for suspecting her because she thinks she’s acting innocent. ??? I'd say that's just chirpy Lommy happy to be playing again but putting Huin on her suspect list because she thinks she looks innocent and he should agree is a bit strange even for her.
Hm. I don't know if I agree with this take.

Quote:
Legate – I don’t agree with a lot of what he’s saying but I’m leaning innocent on him too. Also potentially noteworthy though is his disagreement with those who think he is being framed. The convenient wolf thing to do in his circumstances would be to tacitly agree and play the “poor framed me” card (also takes care of finding someone to legitimately vote for), though admittedly an ordo feeling unjustly under fire could also be likely to believe he was being framed. But whatever his motives, Legate isn’t doing this.
I recall getting good vibes from reading what Legate had to say last night, in terms of me agreeing with him. Not sure about the framing aspect, I probably need context for that.[/quote]

Quote:
The Ka – Calm and collected and reasonable. The trouble is, I know she can sound just as reasonable when she’s evil as when she’s not. Need a reread.

Brinn –This caught my eye:

This is almost too blatantly convenient: keeping the perceived main suspects under fire by saying she is wary of them, but explicitly saying she will stay clear of the potential mess and go for someone else. My only concern is over whether a Brinnwolf would really say that so directly. Still, this is the fishiest thing I’ve seen so far so definitely merits a reread.
Waffled a bit about typing this, but shrug, why not. I think if Greenie is evil, she's very easily evil with Ka here. That's the exact kind of nonread a wolf gives about another wolf.

I do enjoy the read on Brinniel though, I think it's got merit in terms of what innocent-Greenie might think. So six of one, half-dozen of the other.

Quote:
Kath - So far I agree with Gal55’s assessment of likely ordo figuring things out as she goes.

Rikae – Always tricky, but I like what I see so far – feels like an innocent Rikae poking around for reactions. Has a curious back and forth with Gal55.
Didn't realize Kath was playing, but that's my own failing.

Agree on Rikae.

Quote:
Gal55 – Introduced the fake-vote-plan, then backtracked and found Legate odd for agreeing with it. More trigger-happy than most – suspected Lommy and Ka early on for disregarding early posts as evidence, which would have been a fair point but I read their comments more as offhand remarks on specific posts rather than serious arguments about the usefulness of early posts. Now very, very vocal against Rikae. Could be too chaotic for a wolf.
"Too chaotic for a wolf" is the basis of my Cobbler read there.

Quote:
Rune – Brief, to the point, nothing to alarm (or reassure) me so far.

Eonwe - Careful and sensible, nothing alarming yet either. Hard to judge though as he seems sensible even when he's a wolf!

Inzil – I see my classic trap of getting nervous about Inzil because I don’t suspect him. Need a reread.
See Ka. These all sound the same. Not saying it's bad, but it's notable to me at least. The Rune read also has the discrepancy between it and the Kitanna read to think about.

Quote:
Mac – Interesting back and forth with Pitchwife where they’re essentially suspecting each other of doing things they do themselves. Suspected by Rikae and Legate, defended by Huin. No major alarm bells so far.
This one I want to check on. I don't have a read on Mac myself yet.

Quote:
Pitchwife – I actually found his aforementioned interactions with Mac more interesting than those with Gal55 and Legate, but need a reread to figure any of it out.
Pitch is an interesting case. I want to hear what caused him to speak up about Eonwe's list - Pitch, do you not find several of Greenie's reads to be as "agreeable"?

Quote:
Huinesoron – Doesn’t follow the herd and brings up points others haven’t. Suspected Lommy, defended Mac. I get a good vibe so far, though worth keeping an eye on.
I don't have a baseline here.

Quote:
Urwen – Nothing to analyse yet, hope she makes another appearance
Lalaith – Haven’t seen much of her yet either
Shasta – Come back please
Sally – You too

Lottie – Flying completely under my radar, which is odd considering she’s been around a fair bit. Definitely need a reread.


EDIT: x-ed since Eonwe's list
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Last edited by Shastanis Althreduin; 05-05-2020 at 01:59 PM. Reason: X'ed with Pitch, Ka, Lottie, Mac
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:58 PM   #198
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Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Which part of it?
Mentioned it just now in my shameless piggybacking of Greenie's read post, because I am tired.
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Old 05-05-2020, 02:00 PM   #199
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You sure are going for the last hour vote.

An official tally, by courtesy of your Mod, an hour before the Deadline.

Day1 - votes

Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
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Old 05-05-2020, 02:00 PM   #200
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The longer I wait the more nerve-wracking it's going to be on me and I really don't like the prospect of let's have a flurry Day 1 dl voting to have a bit of a "toss-up." Nerve-wracking.

Yes, changing from my intended vote of Legate to

++Pitch

There's a nonchalance to his admitted going back and forth and flip-flopping between Legate and G55. Most of us go through the flip-flopping about people, but his efforts looked more directed at sowing confusion in an effort to play both sides.

Not leaving completely, but wanted to get that done. No point waiting, when I'm just going over the same posts again and again.
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