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Old 05-06-2020, 05:11 PM   #321
Inziladun
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Urwen View Post
I think I am gonna take a page out of Pervinca's book and 'disappear'.
Are you going to speak plainly, or stay in "cryptic mode" indefinitely?

x/d with Lhuna
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Old 05-06-2020, 05:21 PM   #322
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I think perhaps Kitanna is my best read at the moment. I had fundamentally the same reaction to G55's eleventh-hour Ranger claim as she did.
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Old 05-06-2020, 05:35 PM   #323
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There is so much to unpack. I'm not even sure how I want to begin.
There's a lot of fairly vocal people I barely had a chance to look at yesterday. And yet, at the same time there's those flying under the radar who I haven't spared a second thought for. Well, I'm here and catching up on end of Day shenanigans and everything going on today now that G55 and Rikae have shed their mortal coils.
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Old 05-06-2020, 05:49 PM   #324
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Rikae -> Brinniel
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel (2)
---30 min mark----
Kath -> G55 (2)
Inzil -> G55 (3)
Lottie -> G55 (4)
THE Ka -> Brinniel (3)
----15 min mark----
Rune -> Brinniel (4)
Lommy -> G55 (5)
Huines -> G55 (6)
Legate -> Brinn (5)
Macalaure -> Brinn (6)
Brinniel -> G55 (7)
Sally -> Brinn (7) (after "ranger reveal")

Ok, so I took out those who didn't vote for either G55/Brinn. 2 wagons that big had to have wolf involvement.

As noted already today, Steve's and Greenie's throw away votes came within the 30 minute mark. Looks of "not wanting to get their hands dirty." At the same time, can't tell if they're too suspicious without knowing Brinn's role.

Excluding Rikae's vote, Pitch's vote for Brinn, looks the most innocent to me. It came before the really either "wagon" developed.

Then came 3 straight votes for G55 (Kath, Inzil, Lottie). If Brinn's a wolf, this would be a prime spot to try to save a Brinnwolf. Kath's vote looks less suspicious as a "save Brinnwolf" vote, because she had early established suspicion of G55. Also, Inzil, and Lottie had made their votes for G55 after already knowing Kath's vote.

If Brinn's a wolf that mates were trying to save. Inzil andLottie's votes are the worst. (Rikae also in their final post to us pointed out the growing "let's not start a wagon against Brinn sentiments - pointing to Huey, Inzil and Lottie). If Brinn's innocent, Inzil and Lottie's vote still look suspicious, because by pushing forward G55, with under 30 minutes to go it kind of boxed us into 2 choices.

My head is going to hurt trying to unpack all those 15 minutes and under votes. Could be a wolf in there, but it's hard to tell with people voting and cross-voting. I'd have to look closer at their established reasons.

Rune asked someone why they were suspicious of Brinn at some point prior to his vote and he seemed to accept it. Doesn't look suspicious.

Brinn's vote is neutral. Self-preservation can't determine suspicion either way.

sally's vote strikes me as a little suspect. In the spur of the moment with such little time, I think everyone would have to accept G55's ranger claim. But if Brinn's not a wolf, sally's vote is the most suspicious.

If Brinn's a wolf. The most suspicious voters:

Inzil
Lottie


If Brinn's not a wolf, I still find Inzil and Lottie's votes suspect, because that essentially made the lynch between G55/Brinn

Edit: cross posted since back somewhere on Page 8. Phew
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Old 05-06-2020, 05:59 PM   #325
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
If Brinn's not a wolf, I still find Inzil and Lottie's votes suspect, because that essentially made the lynch between G55/Brinn
G55 had been my only real suspect all Day. The sudden push for Brinn made me wonder if someone wasn't trying to save a Galwolf.
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Old 05-06-2020, 06:13 PM   #326
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inziladun View Post
Very curious about this.
So am I... A lot of possibilities were said in that sliver of time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
I don't know that it's ever too early for wolves to frame someone, especially if you can get rid of a dangerous player at the same time.
True. They could have possibly wanted Rikae out of the way just for who they interacted with. I'm not personally the bold and brash type, but their 'bait post' certainly worked on finding the cobbler quickly (which makes sense). I could see Rikae possibly adjusting that for wolf bait Today after confirming G55's role if they were still in the GT.

As for Rikae's vote, looking back without the pressure of the DL, you can see that with the amount of attention G55 gave about that bait post and breaking down the interaction into a more distracting tit-for-tat. Rikae most likely had a hint G55 was a cobbler, even going so far to poke at G55 with, 'A wolf should know not to fall for it, right?'.

Rikae had earlier outlined this as well for her Brinn vote reasoning in post #148:

Quote:
I know, these are the kinds of things a wolf would definitely make sure not to do, right? Right. So much so, it could be used as cover. And an innocent doing them coincidentally? That feels like a bigger stretch to me.
G55 also prior to this has an interest in Brinn, in post #147:
Quote:
It's admirable to make sure you scrutinize everyone, not just the most vocal people. But not voting for someone you genuinely suspect because you think it might be a trap or get messy? This seems to be dancing too easily on the edge of voting whomever works out best for yourself. Brin, can I please request a summary of who you actually suspect?
It's interesting that despite the later confrontation of G55-cobbler and Rikae-villager where they are caught up targeting one another, both had come to similar suspicions.

G55-cobbler could have done so for a myriad of reasons, as we now have the benefit of some hindsight. Echo others, throw blame back for suspicion on them and Pitch, or to possibly see amongst those hiding in the shadow of their arguments who was leaning towards villager or wolf to either help or hinder.

Rikae's reasons are rather interesting, as I don't get the hint in their writing that they've quite confirmed on G55 being a cobbler at that point until G55 really started directing their arguments that way later on. Did they use the 'fake-vote' for Brinn at that time out of true suspicion, a nudge to get Brinn to defend themselves/interact more, or to see who else would argue against/for?

I'll admit I made my vote on similar suspicions, because of who was clustering around G55 and Rikae then and later during the height of their argument. It just was entirely too convenient a place to hide nearing the DL that wasn't involved some way in the G-P-L debate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote
If Urwen was a baby wolf, I might expect that she would've tried harder to be involved. I definitely understand his point of view - this game means a lot to a lot of us, and I understand the temptation to lynch someone to whom it doesn't mean as much. But in terms of wolf hunting, it wasn't really a strong argument.
Sometimes a baby-wolf may be directed to play quietly by more experienced ones until they're needed, but that's typically when there's a few plans made with their vote the previous Night or an elder wolf to follow in argument (such as pushing a vote near DL). This time though, I don't have that hunch in the slightest. At all. I do have the very strong whiff of pettiness.

As for temptation as a sort of rebuttal against their vote for G55 (obviously for reasons other than game play), that could be a possibility as well, but cloaked in a flimsy argument so as not to seem non-game related and due to limited time. Only say this as someone who remembers when we had to stop playing WW due to personal arguments bleeding over into gameplay. Either way, it's not in good taste.
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Old 05-06-2020, 06:13 PM   #327
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
If Brinn's a wolf. The most suspicious voters:

Inzil
Lottie


If Brinn's not a wolf, I still find Inzil and Lottie's votes suspect, because that essentially made the lynch between G55/Brinn
I'd been saying that G55 (and, to a lesser degree, Pitch) was my first choice all Day. I also was starting to suspect Mac and therefore to see the Brinnwagon in a sinister light, so I definitely wanted my top suspects over a player I thought was being pushed by a wolf. If Brinn does turn out to be a wolf, I'd be wrong, yeah, but I'd been pushing G55 over Brinn all Day, it wasn't a last minute shift to try to save anyone.
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Old 05-06-2020, 06:25 PM   #328
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It's times like these that I wish I were wolf. I would play better as one, as my experience shows
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Old 05-06-2020, 06:53 PM   #329
Kitanna
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I decided to start by looking at those with 10 or less posts. I find it easier to organize my thoughts going player by player, so here we go with the first batch. Most of these I've pretty much ignored, except Lhuna I think.
A Little Green 10
Macalaure 10
satansaloser2005 8
Kath 7
THE Ka 6
Eönwë 4
Lhunardawen 4
Urwen 3
Lalaith 2


Lalaith
First post was #89 and she didn't say anything beyond "trying to read."
Next post
Quote:
Still reading. As far as I can see everyone has now posted?

I feel very confused about the point of this false deadline business. Is that an idea just for toDay or a more general thing? Either way, Mac is right that we can't get/expect 100% turnout on false deadlines because of people having genuine RL commitments, and then of course we will have wolves avoiding the false deadline, by claiming they were busy elsewhere.

One thing I'm looking out for. With five wolves about, I suspect some of them will be picking fights with each other - they can afford to do some showboaty bickering to divert attention from potential allegiances.

What in Arda is Lhuna doing? Honouring family traditions?
She doesn't really say anything beyond questioning how helpful a fake vote would be and agreeing with Mac on how hard two DLs would be. She does mention with 5 wolves, we're likely to see some picking fights with one another. Comments on Lhuna's vote for herself.
Eventually Legate called her first post fishy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Quote:
Originally Posted by Originally Posted by Lalaith
Oof. Three pages of posts already. Five wolves in there somewhere causing chaos, with a cobbler urging them on.
I'd better get reading....
That was as fishy first post as they go. "Everyone is a Wolf, hint hint not me."
Ka later comments stating Lalaith hadn't really said anything and was more of a dead end. Legate comes back to her listing her in his Orange zone.
She didn't vote and any other comments about her were along the lines of "not enough to read." She hasn't been back since her second post.
Not much to say about Lalaith, she was talked of, barely, more than she posted. Not much to say, except, since she didn't vote I'm surprised she wasn't a "no trace" kill honestly.

Urwen
Spoke fairly early on, but didn't actually say anything.
Quote:
Checking in.

Maeglin: Why did you bring me? I am not a part of this game.
Me: True, but I hope your sharp eyes will help me spot the wolves.
Maeglin: Ah, that makes sense.
On the first page on posts, Urwen ended in a lot of mentions thanks to Pitch's statistical approach to who was a wolf. Which I find amusing since Urwen and still had a lot of mentions. But that doesn't amount to anything given the joke context of Pitch's post.
I also find it amusing the two least posters were lumped together by Lommy
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
Lalaith and Urwen - ok I might have grouped them together for funsies, but it's true neither of them has given me enough material to work on, so nothing to say yet.
Really the same could be said of them today so far.
Post #202 votes for G55
Eonwe eventually votes for Urwen. Which looks like a safe vote from just CRTL+F Urwen, but we'll see when I actually dig into Eonwe.
Then today
Quote:
Originally Posted by Urwen
I think I am gonna take a page out of Pervinca's book and 'disappear'.
Soooo super helpful. Voted out of spite, so at least that's honest...? I mean, a throwaway vote, but if taken at face value, an honest, if silly, reason to vote G55. Urwen cast the first vote for G55 by the looks of it. I'm not really sure what to make of it? If we believe it was just out of spite, then it was a waste and relatively unhelpful given how little there is to go on. If it was a wolf looking at who was gaining momentum, well that's another story. But as so many other said, there is so little there.

Lhuna
Posting to let us know she is in the "I hate Day 1" club.
I did make a comment about her "this isn't a helpful post" because it rubbed me the wrong way. It still rubs me the wrong way. It seems pointless to point out "there's no content here" when Day 1 is full of posts with no content (in general to WW games), hanging a flag on that fact annoys me and makes me ask "why bother?"
Her next post she votes for herself in honor of Nilp. Much of the rest of the post is responding to what was being discussed at the time. Fake DL, how the dead thread works, she then makes a list of suspects.
Quote:
Brinn - just enough input to be visible, but feels careful. Noncommittal. Slippery.

Zil - if he's a wolf, he'll just hide under a cover of making sense.

Kitanna - jumpy, but maybe just an anxious ordo

Mac - scary. Yep, despite having only one post (I think) so far.

Boro - I don't know, I just don't trust him. And with 59 games under his belt, he seems like he's capable of unfathomable depths of deceit.

The rest fall into the categories of either talkative, speculative, and argumentative yet genuinely helpful OR practically non-existent. Or Shasta.
Or Shasta made me laugh very hard and I'm sorry I missed it earlier.
Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife
Unless there's a quarantined Seer AND the majority of the Cuties are innocent, the QT vote is just another vote that may be rght or wrong or misguided or driven by evil intentions like everybody else's. No way for us to know.
THIS.

Mac is amusing. But still scary.

Now to bed. I will wear a face mask as I sleep; I suggest you all do the same. Maybe this way the Evil Breath won't get us, who knows.
Though I'm not sure why she found Mac scary.
In her self-vote post she responds to Mac on the fake DL, changing of fake votes where she discusses how a wolf could swing a vote. But I don't see anything to indicate why exactly she thought Mac was scary. Beyond, maybe, she didn't trust his own reasoning on wolves swinging votes?
And toDay:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Originally Posted by Leggie
I am absolutely confused by Mac's tinfoilhatting post at the moment, so maybe I'll leave it for the morning when I can process it with fresh braaaains.
He's a zombie. Get him!
We don't want zombies on top of everything else...
Quote:
I don't know about you guys, but I think determining who joins Cobb55 in the QT shouldn't be a main factor for a wolf kill. It may be because I've never played with a dead thread before and am yet to see how it affects actual game play, but wouldn't a dead thread game be like any other game in that the wolves would try to get rid of the Gifteds (particularly the Seer) during the Night? Maybe Rikae said something that made the Infected think they're the Seer. Unfortunately I don't have time at the moment to go through their posts yesterDay to see if anything like this sticks out.
I'm still trying to figure out the dead thread myself since it's entirely new to me, but I agree with Lhuna's that it seems unlikely wolves would pick based on who joins the QT thread and more likely they feared she was the seer. Though it is possible given Rikae's spat with G55 is was more they thought they would be considered innocent toDay. I seem to recall a number of people saying they got innocent vibes from that fight. May have been the wolves removing someone who they saw as being generally trusted.

Eönwë
Brings up that G55 distanced herself from her idea of the fake vote. Offers innocent realziing it's a bad idea vs bold wolf. Feels good about Legate based on a reread of the fake vote discussion. Vocalizes early on that he's not sure he trusts Brinn
Quote:
So far, I like THE Ka and Lommy. The fact that Brinn feels the same way (or at least claims to) makes me unsure about whether to trust her too or doubt my lack of suspicions about those two.
Requests clarification from the Mod God about wolves PMing in quarantine.
The next post is a list of what he thinks of this village. Some highlights, found Legate reasonable, though noted wolfLegate can be reasonable too. I read as undecided. Didn't find G55 overally suspicious. Believes others were trying to get her out of suspcions way by pinning the fake vote on Legate. Finds Boro unsettling, but not really suspicious it reads like. More of a side-eye thing than anything. Says he can't tell how he feels about Brinn which concerns him. Most everyone else fell into "not sure."
Voted Urwen. Of the Legate, Pitch, G55 trio thought Legate and Pitch were more innocent, unsure of G55 especially given her interaction with Rikae.
Quote:
The reason I'm bringing this whole thing up is not to rehash this, but actually to point out that Zil, Brinn, and Lommy were also around then and lightly interacted with the topic, but as far as I remember without really addressing the fact that suspicions were being flung around (at least until later). I wouldn't be surprised if one of them were a wolf just going with the flow.

I also think there's something interesting going on between Legate, Pitch, and Mac which warrants more observation, but while I feel like someone among them may be suspicious, I really can't tell who it is.

I also agree with those that have said Boro is acting weird, but there will be more time for him to incriminate himself if he is guilty, and he's not suspicious enough for me to vote for him without hearing what he has to say for himself.
But then votes for Urwen because he doesn't like Urwen's vote. It is such a throwaway vote. Urwen hadn't said much and then proclaimed a vote out of spite, which is ugh on it's own, but Eonwe's vote doesn't look much better. This looks like a nice, safe vote on someone who was discussed, but wasn't actually gaining traction to be lynched. Rune even says if he were "a man of ideals" he'd have voted Eonwe for the Urwen vote.
Nothing for toDay.

THE Ka
Her first post starts with comments on fake voting, more specifically, thinking that no-vote was meant by the suggestion. Also states rushed villagers will grasp at straws to save themselves. This is in response to someone saying it's easy to catch a wolf in lying because they're fabricating accusations. I'm not sure who she's quoting though. Legate maybe? Since that's who she was responding to initially.
Discusses mechanics of QT vs GT in how wolves will vote. Next post talks some more on this after clarification on how the QT thread works.
The next post is a lot of talking game mechanics and potential wolf strategy. She responds to a number of people, but doesn't really give thoughts on other villagers, but rather on ideas being presented.
The next post calls for more substance from some players, though doesn't really name names. Later in the same post we get
Quote:
So far, I really have no clue on Rune or Lhuna, but I know this is due to their time restraints and I can’t fault them on that alone. I could give them a pass the first Day, but I’d be looking for more substance the second given the material they’d have to look at along with us.
I also remember Lhuna having to step out early in game and to be completely honest, I can't in all consciousness go after someone on that either, because I've done that not once, but twice myself because of outside world responsibilities. One of the reasons I haven't played WW in almost ten years, unfortunately.
Rikae is Rikae, I’m not sensing anything out of their normal play style. I am however, not trying to let nostalgia cloud memory though...
I would like to see a little more explanation from Eonwe on their ideas since we’ve gotten past the fake-vote originator debacle. Have an interest in their deductions.
Loslote has me curious due to the repeated fanning of compliments to Huiensoron's thinking, but I'm not seeing much contribution outside of agreeing when it comes to Hui's theories.
Next post weighs in on G55/Rikae stating it's more of a difference in playing style. Later in the same post she says she finds their behavior true to character.
Quote:
Originally Posted by THE Ka
Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Originally Posted by Pitch[/quote
I'd actually be surprised if there isn't at least one wolf among Rikae, Brinn, Kitanna and Lottie. The later on the Pitchwagon, the likelier.
Well, that wouldn’t be Kitanna late to that bandwagon…

I’ve re-read five of their posts since #36 and they’ve went from very iffy to consistent accusation against you, I’ll give them that at least.
What I’m more suspicious of, is those riding in their wake first with the Legate-G55-Pitch and now with G55-Rikae.

Between Brinn and Loslote, Brinn is playing far safer in their submarine by just throwing a ‘I have a hunch’ dart at Zil and following the G55-Rikae debate with mild defense of the Day 1 blues. That’s safe and yes, even villagers could take up that tactic, but this consistently? Hrrm.

I would have suspected Loslote for trying to play it too safe in the shadow of G55-Rikae with their comment about latching onto bandwagons and trying to cozy up to Rikae with a consistent criticism of G55’s arguments, but they do later begin to step out.
She focuses in on Brinn and Lottie the most throughout the post. And eventually votes Brinn. In her vote post she does respond to Zil on Urwen's vote. Calls it a potential joke vote to be safe, but has no substance to go off of.
Nothing toDay yet.

That's the first five lowest posters. Ugh, so many more to go. I think I'm going cross-eyed.

Edit I see THE Ka and Urwen each said something as I rifled through posts. Awesome...
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Old 05-06-2020, 06:54 PM   #330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Urwen View Post
It's times like these that I wish I were wolf. I would play better as one, as my experience shows
Whatever your role, just do your best. Watch others and see how they act, while forming your own opinions.

x/d with Kit
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Old 05-06-2020, 07:13 PM   #331
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To prove that I’m not crazy, or at least not that crazy.

(I will mostly refer to post numbers instead of creating a 10-screens long post with 20 quotes.)

It started with Gala coming up with her fake vote thing. Legate took it up with excitement, though with a different spin, but Gala returned this excitement by calling him a cobbler in #38. I later said the same thing in #52:

Then Rikae made an error in #69, as I did not say I thought Legate looked infected, just cobblerish.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?
Then Gala comes out blazing in #71, quoting the above and challenging Rikae. I addressed it as well in #97, with somewhat less furor. Gala restates it in #127:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gala
And I jokingly called you out on deliberately summarizing incorrectly. This only serves to sow confusion and derail the village, or give people (you most of all) an excuse to vote based on, frankly, false grounds if the vote is based off this post. My point still stands.
In the same post she quotes my #97, telling me that there are other problems with Rikae's post, too, without elaborating. A minor attempt to try and side with me, the first of a few.

In #128 (crossing with Gala) Rikae understands what Gala meant in the first place. They check, see their error, and admit to it. That could have been that. Gala, however, doesn’t buy it, and over the next few posts between the two, some cross-posted, the argument slowly escalates. Over the course, Gala keeps “siding” with me several times, even though I didn’t mention anything about this since my one comment in #97.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gala, #137
I am waiting for a response from Rikae. Being curt is one thing, being deliberately wrong is another. And she just - sidesteps - the questioning from myself and Mac, like that post never happened.
#147:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gala, #147
Throw some unsupported shade on people, then dismiss half of it as a joke and half of it as an oopsy daisy, and the post gets forgiven but the shade remains. Actually, it was so bombastically inaccurate I am surprised only Mac called you out on it except for me.
#156:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gala, #156
Seriously? No one else except Mac has noticed anything wrong with that post?
Then in #166 I weigh in, accepting Rikae’s explanation and calling Gala’s case far-fetched, but at this point the fight is already all over the place.

.......

In her vote, Gala mentions other things, but following her posts, she very much started going after Rikae because they misrepresented something I said, thus exaggerating her suspicion of me. That's what everything spiraled out of control from. Gala must have thought Rikae was gifted, it makes no sense that she would go after them like that over that little reason if it was otherwise. A cobbler’s life isn’t worth much, but they tend to not go kamikaze this early without purpose.

Maybe she got hunter or ranger vibes from something, possible, but:
- it’s not unreasonable that seer-Rikae would pick me as their first dream.
- if you’re the seer and you know a wolf, what do you do? Keep quiet? Drop hints? Go all out and accuse? Try to subtly steer the village into lynching that wolf?
The way Rikae suspected me could fit the latter. Gala tried to associate herself with me several times, which makes me suspect that Gala thought so as well, a cobbler trying to reach out to who she thought was a wolf.

All of this was already on my mind during the Night and now Rikae is dead. Obviously, it’s a bit of a stretch for me to assume the wolves saw everything the same way. But here’s the thing - I got some fire late yesterDay from Greenie and a few. With a bit of a push, that case could gain momentum and get me lynched toDay - and an innocent lynched is a wolf not lynched.

I do realize that my slight paranoia might get me lynched, too.
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Old 05-06-2020, 07:18 PM   #332
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I should have started the day with this, but just to put it out here now, My predominant suspicion coming into the day is Brinn's a wolf. If the DL was NOW, I'd vote Brinn. Based on the voting yesterday and Rikae's death.

Rikae does love traps. Rikae was pretty clear yesterday in that they did intentionally set a trap and suspected Brinn fell into it. Turns out Rikae had no special knowledge, but trying to put myself back into Day 1, the wolves wouldn't have known Rikae was an ordo. Brinnwolf fell into Rikae's trap and overall with Rikae's posting yesterday felt Rikae was a gifted, or in the least Rikae was going to be an assumed innocent.

Trying to put on my wolf gloves and mask, anytime people come out saying the kill was a "frame" to set up an innocent for an easy lynch, it pings (sorry Pitch ) my radar. I recall more than once of past experiences where we go through 3-4 day/night cycles without lynching a wolf. But the only deaths are ordos, and it winds up destroying the pack. The longer gifted stay in, the more they start to uncover, the more they're able to figure out and coordinate dreams/protections/hunts amongst themselves and eventually the wolfpack runs out of "unknown ordos" to kill. Bottom line is, every pack (maybe not) but purely on theory and experience you go for gifteds first. No matter the cost if it makes a fellow wolf look bad or not. I mean hell we have 5 wolves. So yes the "Brinn's being framed" is suspicious

I was going to look at the Brinn voters, if Brinn is NOT a wolf, but that's a whole different string to pull. I hate strings about as much as I hate lists, and feel like there's 55,000 strings that I can pull on. Head is going to explode. So, I'm going to call it a night. I've skimmed through current day posts, but wanted to lay out all my thoughts from Day 1 voting and Rikae's death. Noted Inzil's and Lottie's reply to my suspicions, but will have to wait until some sleep to look back through their Day 1 activity.

I'm going to follow the "Brinn's a wolf string," unless there's convincing enough reasons not to. I don't buy the "frame" defense.

Edit: sorry trying to follow Rikae's wishes here. Still catching myself missing it, but corrected in this post.

Quote:
Folks, can we please refer to Rikae as they/them/their? Thank you.
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Old 05-06-2020, 07:33 PM   #333
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Kath
Pops in to tell us all about her busy work and school filled life :P
She does provide some clarification on the rules as she read them in the rules thread.
She then points out where and how the no lynch/fake vote debate got started. She states she doesn't understand the concept
Quote:
I don't really understand the concept. If everyone said who they would vote for, but there's no lynch and no role reveal, then the votes don't tell anything. Also the lynch is the only way of taking a wolf down unless the Hunter is targeted at Night and has picked a wolf.
I find it interesting how some people took the fake vote suggestion as no vote and others took it as two votes, one fake, one real. Kath falling on the belief it meant no real vote.
She goes on to say she doesn't understand what Legate was getting at when he jumped on the idea. Points out G55 calling Legate's jumping on the idea "cobbler much," which in hindsight is funny. States G55 backs away sharply from her own idea.
Summarizes a lot of the discussion up to that point.
Next post is more responses to discussion up to that point. And so on for the next post. Maybe it's because I'm tired, but it seems like a lot of Kath's first posts are reactions to what was being discussed. And while hooray discussion! I am finding it hard to say much beyond, "Kath seems reasonable."
Her next post she breaks down her thoughts on the votes up to that point.
Quote:
Votes as I go:
Lhuna --> Lhuna - I mean, what is there to say really? It's a thing. I'm ok with being a thing toDay, but not anything past that.

Rikae --> Brinn - seems to be largely down to the wanting to avoid a trap comment. Other people have mentioned wanting to steer clear of the Legate-Pitch-G55 triangle, but even that seems to have died down as the Day has gone on and more people have appeared. Perhaps it's the 'avoid a trap' wording rather than the sentiment itself?

G55 --> Rikae - quite a big fight seems to have blown up between these two. I looked at post 69 and couldn't really see anything in it. Yes, Rikae somewhat exaggerated events but it was early in the Day and to me read as typical banter. I don't think there was this element of deliberate misrepresentation that G55 feels is going on. I don't know if G55 has played with Rikae before and it's an unfamiliarity with playing style thing, or a great way for a wolf-G55 to have a pretty logical reason to vote an innocent-Rikae.
Calls me consistent in response to others and I'm flattered.
Quote:
Oh and Boro --> Pitch - supposed deliberate flip flopping between Legate and G55.

Urwen --> G55 - 'because I am Morleg and I am spiteful'. That's either a horrible reason for a vote or some reference I'm not understanding. Had Urwen shown any suspicion toward G55 before this? I don't really even recall Urwen posting until now.

Pitch --> Brinn - for using the same suspects as Rikae and then switching to Kitanna when she was suspected for this.
Her next post is looking at Urwen who only had the two posts. She tries to understand why the vote for G55
Then votes for G55. She had leveled some suspicion her way, so it's not unusual to see the vote.
No word toDay from her.

Cupcake aka Sally
First post is, from what I remember, classic Sally. She promises us links and laughter.
Next post provides promised links. Calls for an end to fake vote nonsense before it makes her "properly suspect people."
Next is simply "here and trying to catch up." Then explains how to quote within a quote for Kath.
Next is around, but obviously RL working, though, Sally dear, this is more important than a call.
Votes Brinn to save a "maybe ranger." Realizes her vote is the best she can do at the moment.
Starts off the posting for toDay, glad no one dead was the actual Ranger.
Suspected Rikae was a defensive wolf and then suspected them as defensive gifted. Makes notes on Rikae's temper. Notes Lalaith didn't vote.
Questions Steve's votes. Guys, it's been a long time, but who the frack is Steve in all this? Eonwe? Or is there a Steve I can't see posts from?!
Also says Greenie had a throwaway vote. Greenie voted for Mac. I remember a few people calling Mac scary and being unsure, but 1) I don't remember him doing anything scary 2) I don't remember what Greenie said of him, so I'm not sure this was a throwaway vote.
So that's Sally. I have so little to say about our little cupcake. Her vote seems the logical choice for a villager or a wolf. It was a last minute reveal, it's not like the real Ranger could counter that late in the Day. I suspect Sally on principal. It just feels wrong if I don't.

That's it for tonight. I pretty much roll out of bed and work until DL, but I'm intent on getting caught up. But it maybe the Cliff Notes version of things.
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Old 05-06-2020, 08:18 PM   #334
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On Rikae's death...

Scenario 1. The wolves thought Rikae was gifted. But if they though them the seer, then they know that they didn't dream of me. Really, people. Are some of you really suggesting that a wolf-version of me would be dumb enough to go after Rikae because I thought they were the seer? I don't know if any wolves would be so jumpy this early in the game. In a village of 20+, it would be very lucky indeed if the seer dreamt of a wolf on Night 1.

Scenario 2. Rikae's death was a way to frame me.

Scenario 3. Rikae looked more innocent after the exchange with G55, so they were an easy kill.

The problem is that all three of these are possibilities and there are probably more out there, which leads me to...

Scenario 4. The wolves love chaos.

There are so many reasons why the wolves could've chosen Rikae including confusing and distracting the village. If we spend too much time trying to theorize why they died, that takes away focus from the actual posting from YesterDay and toDay, which plays into the wolves' hands. That said, I am wary of anyone who will lean too much into focusing on the Night kill.

So that is the last I will say on the Night kill.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
I'm going to follow the "Brinn's a wolf string," unless there's convincing enough reasons not to. I don't buy the "frame" defense.
If you're gonna stick with that, then you're wasting your Day. I see a lot of theories from you on who is suspicious based on the assumption that I'm wolf, but I am not aware of the reason why you suspect I am one in the first place.

Okay, I am going through each player post-by-post and taking handwritten notes in the process in hopes that I can gather a better feeling of everyone. Seeing that there's nine pages, this may take awhile...
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Old 05-06-2020, 09:06 PM   #335
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[RL] Huge apologies everyone. After reading the first 3 pages yesterDay and making a couple of posts, RL turned into a stressfest which meant I didn't return to the game until just past the deadline. I feel really bad not contributing more and especially for missing the vote. [/RL]
My first thought on looking at the way the lynching went - we can assume that G55-cobbler did not think Brinn was a wolf or she wouldn't have tried to save herself? That of course doesn't mean Brinn isn't a wolf, but it might be worth bearing in mind. And all that fake-vote business was started by a cobbler which makes total sense in hindsight. Legate's interest in the fake vote idea was curious, and I must say in general I have been struggling to follow his reasoning and find myself disagreeing with a lot of his conclusions about people and events. That doesn't make him a wolf of course but I feel wary of him.
So, yesterDay, a lot of things happened...some of which I haven't properly analysed. But here are some of the things/people I've had impressions about, good, bad or middling. Good feelings about Greenie, who I thought was reading posts carefully and thinking about things in a genuine and sensible way which feels unwolflike. Zil is coming across in a similarly honest way. Sally's panicked late arrival and attempt to save the alleged Ranger at DL felt like a genuine act by an innocent.
Boro's stream of consciousness posts yesterDay were odd and made me convinced he was the cobbler. However he clearly isn't and he's being more sensible toDay. His focus on Brinn is interesting and I take issue with her thoughts on Rikae's death - that the first two scenarios were all about her (Brinn). Yes, they did vote for her, but lets not forget Rikae boldly named three people in their first post - Pitch, G55 (cobbler) and Mac. One of those names could have been what killed them. Indeed, they carry on being suspicious of both Pitch and Mac for a couple of posts before the row with G55. (As far as Mac is concerned - I was finding him like Greenie, honest and helpful for the first few pages but then I wasn't sure. Need to go over things again to pinpoint what's worrying me)
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Old 05-06-2020, 10:48 PM   #336
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Summaries starting with the most frequent posters...


Inziladun: He is the most frequent poster, yet his posts don't contain a lot of substance and are a bit agreeable. This could be a wolf tactic, which is why he was on my suspect list yesterDay. He did suspect G55 in post #205 - his reasons are explicit, but they seem to be similar to reasons others suspected her. In his vote for G55, he states her death could shed light on Pitch, Legate, and Rikae. I have yet to see him mention the former two toDay. ToDay, he starts by disregarding the possibility of a frame kill and seems to imply that it points to me being a wolf. Then he appears to reverse his position in post #304 to acknowledge that a frame job is possible. Has stated that Eonwe's vote was odd, which I do agree (but more on that later).

Impressions: My opinion of Inzil hasn't really changed much. The frequent posts with low substance can be a wolfish tactic. While his opinion on G55 was consistent, it was an easy bandwagon to follow. And yes I may be biased, but do find his comments about the Night kill fishy.

---

Lottie: Also a frequent poster, but with more substance. She brings up the possibility of a G55/Pitch wolf pair in post #146, and remains consistent with those suspicions and ends up voting for G55. She quickly jumps on Greenie's comments on Mac, which could be suspicious if Mac is innocent. ToDay she finds the last-minute bandwaggoners for me suspicious with the reasoning that if I'm innocent, I'd be a preferable lynch.

Impressions: Lottie is what I call a helpful player, which doesn't point either way alone. However, her suspicions of Pitch/G55 stayed pretty consistent throughout the Day so I don't find her vote suspicious. And her reasoning for the wolves to join the bandwagon to vote me is something I agree with. I think I recall being fooled by Lottie, so I'll remain cautious, but right now I'm leaning innocent.

---

Pitchwife: Early on, he appears to suspect G55 and Legate, but more so the latter for picking up on G55's idea of the no-vote. In post #163, he thinks there's a wolf among Rikae, Kit, Lottie, and me based on our suspicion of him. The Rikae/G55 squabble makes him think better of them. He ended up suspecting my later posts then later voted me for the reasons of using Rikae's shortlist, then backing off and redirecting to Kit.

Impressions: So I found Pitch slightly suspicious yesterDay because he picked on Legate who if innocent, could be easy to build a case against. I did back off some on the suspicions, as I sensed a bandwagon building on him and if he were innocent, could be the work of wolves and didn't want to be caught up in it (which is apparently the post that several including Rikae found to be suspicious). He voted second for me, which is before the bandwagon against me really began and while I disagree with his reasons, from his perspective, I do actually find them to be valid. No, I did not intentionally copy Rikae's list, but I also didn't do a good job at giving reasons to suspect the people on my list and after reviewing my posts, I suppose backing off on him didn't look great either. After re-reviewing his posts, I do find Pitchwife to be more genuine and if I were to guess, I'd think him innocent.

--

Shasta: In post #188, he predicts G55-cobbler, Rikae-innocent. Is that Shasta being psychic again? He questions Greenie's thinking in post #197, then more so in post #211. He ends up voting Pitch for it appears his comment on Eonwe in #174. Mentions he doesn't like Greenie's and Eonwe's throwaway votes.

Impressions: Shasta's style is short and to the point, but he does give his opinions. I don't really understand his vote for Pitch. Because Pitch put down Eonwe's list as too wishy-washy...or am I missing something here?

--

Oh good grief, have I really only done four people? I'm gonna be up all night getting this done.

To be continued...
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Old 05-07-2020, 12:19 AM   #337
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So... it looks like despite that scare at the end there (and as I was reading through hours later when I finally had time, I did panic a bit when reading G55's reveal), the lynch could've gone worse.

First, about my vote: there's not much more to say other than that I was on very limited time and had only managed to catch up to post #212, which was the most recent post when I arrived (as mentioned in my post). I did do a refresh just to see votes before making my final choice, but at that point we were still on page 6 and no-one had more than 2 votes so it was all still open (and I really didn't have time to look to see if I'd x-posted or not).
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Old 05-07-2020, 12:19 AM   #338
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Now, to business:

One thing I'm wondering about is the very very late timing of the G55 reveal. The options, at increasing levels of bluff, seem to be:
  1. She was trying to get an innocent Brinn killed.
  2. She wanted us to believe (1), but actually thought Brinn was an Infector and knew it was too late.
  3. She wanted us to believe (2), but actually thought that Brinn was innocent and wants us to suspect her by assuming (2) is true.
Given that she's the Cobbler whose aim to sow confusion and discord, unless anyone has any specific thoughts, I'm not sure how much it's worth thinking about this (and potentially wasting time doing what she wants, which is getting confused about her actions) any further, but I just wanted to put this out there. Also important to note that she did not know any more than us, so her suspicions (or lack thereof) only hold slightly more weight than others because we know that she doesn't know any more than the rest of us.
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Old 05-07-2020, 01:00 AM   #339
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
If Brinn's not a wolf, I still find Inzil and Lottie's votes suspect, because that essentially made the lynch between G55/Brinn
This is a good point!

For reference, here is the vote count (borrowed from Nog's post with the last vote added):

Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel 2
Kath -> G55 2
Shasta -> Pitchwife 2
Kitanna -> Pitchwife 3
Inzil -> G55 3
Lottie -> G55 4
Greenie -> Macalaure
THE Ka -> Brinniel 3
Eönwë -> Urwen
Rune -> Brinniel 4
Lommy -> G55 5
Huines -> G55 6
Legate -> Brinn 5
Macalaure -> Brinn 6
Brinniel -> G55 7
Sally -> Brinniel



One thing that I don't think people have really addressed toDay is that Pitch was seriously on the chopping block yesterDay and then managed to get taken out of the running, and a large part of that was G55 becoming an eligible vote candidate due to Zil and Lottie.

As a side note, come to think of it, Boro writing the above post and not mentioning this specifically when Pitch was the only viable non-Brinn vote-candidate at the time, while also voting for Pitch and not including the full vote-list (and thus leaving others to find out for themselves) could suggest a potential arms-length Boro-Pitch Infector pairing, which is an interesting idea that I'm going to have to look into.

On the other hand, while I'm sure there are wolves hiding in both the late Brinn and G55 votes, I think some of the earlier votes look like they could also be interesting (for example Shasta and Kitanna's Pitch-waggon that temporarily made Pitch the most-voted), but I will need to look at them more closely when I have time.

However, if Brinn does turn out to be a wolf, THE Ka and Legate are potential candidates for treading the (Infector-y) just-risky-enough-to-not-seem-throwaway-but-not-directly-leading-to-packmate-being-quarantined vote line.
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Old 05-07-2020, 01:04 AM   #340
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Maybe I'm just paranoid and seeing possible wolf-groups everywhere, but after their coordinated votes yesterDay and this post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
I think perhaps Kitanna is my best read at the moment. I had fundamentally the same reaction to G55's eleventh-hour Ranger claim as she did.
I can't help wondering if Shasta and Kitanna aren't an Infector duo being too obvious and just messing with us (though whether this would make Brinn more likely to be an Infector or someone they're trying to frame is up in the air).
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Old 05-07-2020, 01:36 AM   #341
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
That was some Day 1! I'm glad now that we weren't able to swing the vote, but I do think it's worth looking at those late votes. I know Shasta guessed that G55 was a cobbler, and Infectors might've guessed too, but they didn't know either, and I'm sure they wouldn't have rushed to save someone who claimed to be the Ranger if they had any plausible deniability...
Not sure I agree with this – not rushing to save a self-proclaimed Ranger if you have the chance would be next to suicidal for a wolf. For the same reason, I don’t really follow Boro’s reasoning here –
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
sally's vote strikes me as a little suspect. In the spur of the moment with such little time, I think everyone would have to accept G55's ranger claim. But if Brinn's not a wolf, sally's vote is the most suspicious.
I don’t think we can read anything into Sally’s vote one way or another. She voted to save a self-proclaimed Gifted a few minutes before DL, which to me doesn’t say anything about her alignment - regardless of what Brinn is.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
(This is in response to a point of mine against Huin.) Me neither, necessarily. But it’s a plausible wolf tactic to say someone looks innocent while at the same time inviting others to make their case for guilt.
Ah, got it now. That’s fair enough.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
I think it's very interesting that Legate really didn't seem interested at all in the G55-Pitch options at the deadline yesterDay. In his last post before voting, he throws out Brinn, Kit, and Greenie as options, and then votes the only viable candidate there, but doesn't really talk about the other choices at all. It's not a huge thing, but it does kind of ping my radar as something a wolf might do if he wants to steer the vote a little bit, but doesn't want to look suspicious and isn't as invested as he would be if a wolf were actually in danger.
Not sure if this is valid – as I recall, Legate had previously stated that he didn’t suspect G55 or Pitch, so him not finding them interesting as potential lynchees doesn’t strike me as particularly suspicious.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
PS: Huin... I now have Cobbler55 stuck in my head to the tune of Mambo No.5. Why did you do this to me??
Nooooooooooooooo!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
Agreed it's a terribly bad throw away vote sure.

But had I been able to and not already voted, when I read Steve's vote I thought I would be very tempted to do the same thing. I thought Urwen's vote was unsporty and even though G55 turned out cobbler, I had same exact reaction as Steve's. Looked like Urwen had no interest in being helpful.

If G55 turned out Ranger, I would be feeling a lot different about Steve's throw away.
Why? I’m a little uneasy about Eonwe’s vote too as he’s been very cautious in general and that vote was, as Lommy and Lottie have pointed out, an easy way to keep his hands clean. But whether G55 was the cobbler or the ranger shouldn’t really impact an assessment of Eonwe because an Eonwolf wouldn’t know what she was, aside from “not wolf”.

Both Eonwe and Lalaith speculate on whether G55 thought Brinn was a wolf or not. Personally I don’t think this matters one way or another as the cobbler doesn’t have any more knowledge about anyone’s roles than an ordo would.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
Lottie is what I call a helpful player, which doesn't point either way alone. However, her suspicions of Pitch/G55 stayed pretty consistent throughout the Day so I don't find her vote suspicious. And her reasoning for the wolves to join the bandwagon to vote me is something I agree with. I think I recall being fooled by Lottie, so I'll remain cautious, but right now I'm leaning innocent.
Hm. I’m not sure how consistent equals innocent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitanna
Questions Steve's votes. Guys, it's been a long time, but who the frack is Steve in all this? Eonwe? Or is there a Steve I can't see posts from?!
Steve = Eonwe. Don’t ask.

I’ll be back trying to unpick some of the Rikae-Brinn-Mac tangle next.
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Old 05-07-2020, 01:47 AM   #342
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Firstly, this is going to be a wall of text. Secondly, since I had a little more time than Day 1, I wanted to go back and examine the events around Rikae’s infamous ‘wolf-bait’, sans G55 argument.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae Post #69: The ‘bait-post’

Well, it's good to see that Lommy and G55 have come to the conclusion that we need to try lynch a wolf, er, quarantine an infected. And G55 and Legate have agreed we should cast fake votes.

And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?

Seriously, it's interesting how the fake votes discussion evolved, seemingly from a couple of throwaway comments to a serious suggestion. Normally it would be totally pointless, but there is some sense in it as a way to prevent people from lurking and waiting to bandwagon on the QT vote. However, I don't think it's practical, and probably won't be necessary, as "lurk and wait for the QT vote" would become suspicious behavior very quickly anyway.

When it comes to single top suspects vs lists, both have their pros and cons and leave material to analyze later on. Me, I like lists. Here's one, just to get the ball rolling:

Pitchwife
G55
Macalaure
Mac –
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae Post #121
I don't know. He does love playing as a wolf, but I think he also enjoys looking sinister as an innocent.
Going back and looking over Rikae’s ‘bait-post’, this was especially insightful. Rikae speculates from Mac’s tone and approach that they’re either just happy to be playing again, or the quote given above. If you looked at some of Mac’s earlier posts on face value alone (for lie detecting in WW we don’t have the benefit of ‘face’ language), they’re using contractions, there is very little distance from who their subject is in their lists (using names directly, interspersed with memories/gossip, etc.), etc. They perhaps don’t omit everything and have some extraneous details here and there to roleplay a little with others, but when confronted on this, they cooperate with the questioning. It’s fun to be mysterious, to play, but the behavior above isn’t quite the one of someone trying to hide in the corner nor spend all their mental effort meticulously repeating an alibi.
I don’t think I’ve played with Macalaure in WW before, so I really don’t have the benefit of knowing their play style like others do, but I do know enough basics of looking for lying behavior and I’m not really seeing it in these posts. I didn’t see the logic entirely when players were trying to decide to make a Macwagon (another reason is that term alone is making me think of this: and then my mind just wants to make jokes the entire time…) the first Day.

G55 – Welp, not much to say here since their role was revealed to us yesterDay and we’ve spent most of that time discussing them. Instead, I’d rather spend time looking at who they were casually sniffing around after their debate with Rikae. It’s obvious now that the fake-vote idea was their bait for both villagers and wolves to see not really who, but how players would react and who was going to react the most.

Legate, of course, whom G55 later tried to pin the idea on, showed the most genuine interest in the idea and in usual fashion (not really blaming, I did the same with my curiosity over QT because it was new/exciting/untested), began to work further from the groundwork G55 laid out and tried to figure out why. Here I do have the benefit of having played with Legate before a few times and the fact that he is willing to answer confrontations about his sudden interest speaks genuinely to his past playing behavior. Granted, its been years since we’ve both had a chance to play a game together so he may have changed a few of his habits, but this one isn’t odd for his usual neck-out and stream-of-consciousness extrapolations.

Pitch – This one… I’ve been trying to read for awhile now. I’ve even agreed with them on occasion when they’ve given small isolated replies. Now to see how they interacted with Rikae and what it shows.

Post #98 – Not directly to Rikae, but addresses questions from when they were out. Defends why they pressured Legate over the interest in the fake-vote idea. Asks why all the worry over waiting for the QT vote – it could be just as flawed as the GT result that Day.

Post #100 – Confronts Mac, why did you find my pin on Legate odd when you just said so yourself.

Post #107 – Confronts G55 on twisting words over debate about QT vote. Mention of my question to Legate and confusion over fake-votes/no-votes vs regular deadline.
(To Pitch: I saw your question and re-read my earlier post. I meant ‘bunk’ as in slang for ‘worthless’/’knock-off’/’obvious lie’. Not the other ‘bunk’…har, har)

Post(s) #114,118: Analysis on multiple players. #118 mention of Rikae: Seems usual self.

Post #120 – Reply to Hui:
Quote:
I don't think I've seen that many people suspecting Mac to a significant amount (Rikae, of course, myself a bit, who else?), more like saying he's creepy & scary no matter what. Anyway, it's always good for a wolf pack not to get all entangled in the same skirmish but spread themselves out in several combat zones, so to speak.

This response I found the far more reasonable so far. Co-conspirators typically don’t exclusively interact with one another, especially when they’re trying to tell ‘the tale’ and collaborate, because they’re usually too busy trying to put what they rehearsed before into use and for safety. They’re not going to expend the effort to elaborate each other’s stories (because, surprise, one might’ve had to change theirs to fit the situation and now they’re out of sync). Two truthful people asked a question about an event are going to naturally reconstruct what they shared together and have no difficulty being interactive.


Post #163: Echoes some of the other’s suspicions on a possible wolf between Rikae, Brinn, Kit, and Lottie.

Quote:
G55 is all over the place, fairly confrontational, sometimes eyebrow-raising (about Urwen/Maeglin: really? ). Her all-out attack on Rikae just now does sound a lot like passionate innocent though and makes me feel better about her.
Paradoxically, so does Rikae's response so far.

Makes a line up and then eliminates one along with their main confrontation. Though in the context this presents a reasonable choice (plenty of others acted or said the same about G55/Rikae debate). Could have included Rikae in the list anyways as a demonstration that they were involved with the other three, but while Brinn and Lottie were hovering around the G55/Rikae debate, Kit was not directly in it. Kit was however connected to the G-L-P by being it’s main arbiter when it came to trying to find a possible wolf between the three.

My main question is, unless I’m just tired and missing it, why Kit in this specific grouping?
….

Post #171: Confronts Brinn on casually suspecting Kit for pushing for wolves in G-L-P. Brings up they only did so after Mac.
(Rikae by this point previously had already voted for Brinn).

Post #174: Responds to Rune, admits that they are flip flopping on suspicion on G55 again. Notes suspicion on Eonwe’s heightened agreeableness.

Post #210: Vote post. Votes for Brinn with reasoning:

Quote:
Picked suspects from Rikae's shortlist, then backed off when attention turned away from the LPG triangle, and when she got suspected for this she tried to shift the suspicion to Kitanna, who had been more or less in the same camp.
Question I’m wondering, is why didn’t Pitch go with Kit given the previous amount of information and continued suspicion they had on their sudden hunt for wolves among them, Legate, and G55? They admit their uncertainty on G55 previously and Rikae’s possible innocence, but then go with Rikae’s list of fellow accused, swap out Mac, and then include Brinn (why not Lottie as well?).

Onto another note:

Post #305 -
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
Except wolves know all day that they have to make up the reasoning for a vote for an innocent and can plan for it accordingly.
That’s to be expected and wolves would definitely know that themselves… and then act in contrast. Similar to when you’re examining someone on an event, the liar needs to make a story of what they did and why for protection, but at the same time they’re watching you very closely because they don’t know what facts you have about them.

There’s also the fact that wolves don’t know who the cobbler is on Day 1 any more than every other role. Once the cobbler starts disrupting though, the wolves are going to study it closely. Not for the cobbler, but who is on the sidelines with whoever the cobbler is arguing with. When they see an opinion of the situation start to form from the spectators, they have to adapt their plan and story rather quickly. If a wolf can’t do so, they need a temporary shelter until they can write their reasoning up why. If this is before a bandwagon forms, they’re quickly joining either side of a good ol’ fashioned cobbler debate and when asked about it later, feign the same fears as a villager, ‘oh, they were just so adamant and I didn’t know if either was correct, but I didn’t want to be singled out for doing nothing so I panicked and said enough to contribute.’ This can later be used as a convincing means of why they might back-peddle, saying they have more evidence now that they’re not under attack, etc.

When pressed later though, if someone is a villager, they’re going to defend themselves. It might not even be the exact same way they told you the first time, but the difference is they’ll be more eager to tell you to clear themselves.

When I was suspicious of both Brinn and Loslote of drifting into the shadow of Rikae-G55 debate, Loslote was the one out of the two who began defending themselves. A villager is probably gonna show anxiety on small things like when they replied to you, semantics and word choice, etc. not immediately what you’re accusing them of. At that point, they just want to prove themselves.

If a wolf was defending themselves, they’d of made a script or perhaps several to accommodate for this. You could ask a wolf trying to hide to explain themselves and you’ll get a lot of words, very direct, but not entirely what you asked. Another is the ‘duping delight’ of WW, usually the confident little glimmer in responses ‘you can ask/vote however you want’ or ‘it’s whatever you make of it’, which puts the blame of ‘mean interrogator’ on who’s pressing for an explanation.

We definitely saw this with Rikae to G55, but surprisingly a few times with G55 to a few others they were questioning afterwards.



On that note, it’s past midnight in my time zone and I should have already been in bed, but I wanted to look over who was hovering around Rikae’s list a little more. I’ll be back tomorrow, hopefully early enough to catch up everyone’s posts before I make a vote.
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Old 05-07-2020, 02:00 AM   #343
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Boro: Early on he's a bit of an oddball, but that doesn't point either way. Spends plenty of time posting about player style. In post #113, he fake-votes Legate for picking up on the fake-vote idea from G55. Does anyone see irony in that? He ends up actually voting Pitchwife for flip-flopping between G55 and Legate. ToDay he announces me as his primary suspect in post #332 without stating why, then states he's going to focus on possible suspects based on my guilt.

Impression: I actually find his vote reasoning for Pitch rather flimsy. Yes, Pitch was a little indecisive, but I don't think enough to merit a vote. And then there's toDay. I just don't understand the sense in looking at other players with the presumption of another unknown player's guilt without considering alternatives.

---

Legate: Picks up on G55's fake vote idea which gathers plenty of attention. He begins to suspect Kit for her comments on Lhuna, then builds on suspicion when she switches her suspicion to him in post #88. He's unsure about me, but votes me over Kit because she's not in the running and my death could be revealing.

Impression: His early comments of the Day could be a bold wolf, but I'm more inclined to think not. I don't like his vote, but it is not necessarily suspicious since he didn't want to spread out the vote and seemed least certain about me among those in the running.

---

Lommy: In post #144, she suggests G55 could be the cobbler. She finds Pitch grasping at straws, Hui suspicious for his suspicion of her (that it seems fabricated), and Boro is acting odd. At post #150, her fake vote goes to Boro for shying away from confrontation and not giving normal vibes. In post #203, she thinks G55 looks bad in her confrontation with Rikae and later votes her. ToDay, she further explained her vote, stating she preferred lynching G55 over me.

Impression: My opinion of Lommy hasn't changed either. She still appears genuine to me. Her suspicion of Boro was consistent and in my opinion, not too much out there. She didn't vote him, but clearly that was due to not wanting to spread the votes.

---

Hui: Starts to suspect Lommy based on her comments about Day 1, stating that it gave "finding a wolf toDay is impossible, so why bother trying" vibes. There's some further exchanges that continue that suspicion. In post #93, he's wary of Mac suspicions, and backs off Lommy slightly. By post #183 Lommy is back on the suspect list. He points out the suspicion against me has come out of nowhere and then votes G55 to avoid me getting lynched (thanks) and thinks a wolf is behind the bandwagon.

Impression: I don't agree with his Lommy suspicions, but I do like his concern about the bandwagon against me - however, that does not spell innocence. I could see a wolf trying to support an innocent to gain her trust. Hui does a lot of summaries of previous posts which appears helpful, but could also be a facade should he be a wolf.

---

Mac: In post #111, he thinks there's too much focus on LGP and the Day could end up a race between them. He started to pick up on my comments and suspect them, which is why he votes me. ToDay he's been talking about theories of Rikae as the Night kill and thinks it could be way to frame him.

Impressions: I was agreeing with his posts, right up until he started suspecting me. As for those suspicions, I'm not sure what to think - could be genuine or he could be helping to set me up. His theory toDay is a stretch - I just don't find it likely that the wolves would kill Rikae for that reason.

---

Rune: In post #117, he's most worried about G55 for her fake vote idea then turning it back on Legate. For post #134, he says he's likely to vote Eonwe for being non-committal or Kit for her reaction to Lhuna. #221, he acknowledges there's a building case against me and then agrees with it. He states he'd prefer to vote Eonwe, but votes for me because I'm the better lynch option over G55.

Impression: I don't really agree with his reasons for suspecting Eonwe and Kit - they seem weak. As for his suspicion of me, there's nothing unusual in itself about Rune suspecting me...he always does. But the way he piggybacks on the case against me is suspicious. Plus, what happened to his concerns about G55? They seem to have disappeared unless I'm missing something.

More to come.

P.S. I'm just posting right now and haven't had time to read anything new since #339. And I probably won't read anything til morning.
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Old 05-07-2020, 02:45 AM   #344
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Greenie: In post #135, she has concerns about the Hui/Lommy exchange. Her summary post is a bit non-committal, but I guess not too unusual at this stage. Post #178, she is wishy-washy about G55 in the Rikae exchange. In #206, she voices concerns about Mac's post on me feeling that his thought process is wolfy. She ends up voting him for this reason.

Impression: I'm not sure about Greenie. Yes, the timing of her vote made it a throwaway, but I don't know that this alone makes her suspicious. Greenie does tend to be someone who flies under my radar.

---

Kit: Post #85 was her jump on Lhuna. In #95, she thinks a Pitchwolf could pick Legate as an easy target and later states that she think there is a wolf among LGP. She dedicates post #220 to looking at my post - she doesn't like what she sees, but lays off. After reviewing G55, she votes Pitch.

Impression: Unlike others, I don't find her comments of Lhuna suspicious, just a bit aggressive. It is interesting that she spent a bunch of time concerned about my posts, then went along with Pitchwife. I was suspicious of her yesterDay because of her push for Pitch, which could be wolfy behavior should he be innocent. I am still wary of her.

---

Sally: Not much content to go off from yesterDay. The reason behind her vote was obvious.

Impression: Too little information to have an impression. Hopefully we'll hear more toDay.

---

Kath: Post #81 she provides a summary list that's a bit inconclusive. She votes G55 because she doesn't like how she slides the fake vote idea to Legate.

Impression: I noticed a lot of her posts talk about the players without providing actual opinions of them. I couldn't find where she suspected G55 earlier. She remains a mystery to me right now.

---

Ka: In post #194, she plays into Pitch's idea that a wolf could be among Rikae, Kit, Lottie, and me. She finds me playing it safe and then votes me.

Impression: I found her looking innocent early yesterDay, but less so now. Her reasoning for voting me is valid, but her timing is more suspicious.

---
Eonwe: Posts a non-committal summary in #153. In his vote post, he throws out several names of possible suspects but is unwilling to commit and votes Urwen instead.

Impression: Some pointed out that summary post and I agree it's wishy-washy, but not necessarily suspicious for Day 1. I don't like his vote, but again it's not necessarily suspicious.

---

Lhuna: She mentioned she hates Day 1 and then voted for herself.

Impression: Still too little to go on. Her self-vote doesn't point to anything.

---

Lalaith: Not much participation yesterDay, apparently due to time constraints. Hopefully we'll hear more today.

Impression: Not enough to have one. Though I will respond on her recent post disagreeing with my Night kill post - I see her point on Scenario 1, however I don't think a wolf would automatically suspect seer just because they are on a list. I could see the wolves suspecting a seer Rikae maybe if they thought they dreamt of G55 (considering they put her on the suspect list and their later exchange).

---

Urwen: Votes G55 out of spite then threatens to disappear toDay.

Impression: Don't like the vote, but I'm more inclined to think she's a confused ordo. If she does disappear, I'd rather not waste anymore time analyzing her behavior since she'd get modfired anyway.

---

I think that was everyone.
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Old 05-07-2020, 03:02 AM   #345
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After repeated experience of writing a post, fifty new posts coming while I write, then ending up with an endless scroll, I'm going to post one whole thought now and continue with more afterwards.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
Ok, so I took out those who didn't vote for either G55/Brinn. 2 wagons that big had to have wolf involvement.

As noted already today, Steve's and Greenie's throw away votes came within the 30 minute mark. Looks of "not wanting to get their hands dirty." At the same time, can't tell if they're too suspicious without knowing Brinn's role.
Boro's starting remark "there must be Wolves among these big bandwagons" (while likely) and the fact he excluded the remaining votes forced me to look them up and that in turn prompted me to calculate.

It is *theoretically* possible that the Wolves are Lhuna, Boro, Shasta, Kitanna, Greenie and/or Eönwë (and/or Lalaith). And so in fact, there is rather a big chance that there is a Wolf among those, and to be honest, I am actually more convinced that there is at least one - or likely more than one.

Since I'm at it, I could just as well look at them.

Lhuna's self-vote would be a perfect cover. Perfect in the sense that she would do it regardless, so it has no objective impact as evidence. But if she was a Wolf, it'd be ideal way to keep her hands clean (no pun intended).

More interesting are those who came later. All of those came after the 30 min mark and came sort of in response to the appearing bandwagons. The beginning came from the discussion "G55 or Pitch" and actually several people leaned both ways and didn't want Brinniel. Some of those who originally took part in the debate (Hui, Lottie) later voted G55 over Pitchwife, already at the point when it was very late and it came to the race between the two.

Both Shasta and Kitanna voiced fairly reasonably backed suspicions based on the "Pitchwife goes on offense-defense" argument related to the whole trialogue.

Greenie's vote for Mac is the "safest" in the sense that it comes up with a new bandwagon when there are others already going. I actually still don't like it because I think it easily could be faked. But I would need more data to form a broader picture.

Eönwë is right in the same category with his single vote for Urwen. On second look, I have to backtrack on what I said in my previous post and say that it really looks throwaway, however, at the same time, I still think it looks rather like an innocent throwaway. Less than 15 minutes before end, a throwaway vote is a suspicious move, and not sure if an Eönwölf would do it.

That's some musing on those. Lalaith I see has appeared since. I hope we are going to have more input from her, including a vote; same goes for Lhuna.

Back to reading...
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Old 05-07-2020, 03:10 AM   #346
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Okay, Rikae then. Several theories on why they were picked.

Lottie seems to think the wolves took Rikae out because they were a powerful semi-assumed innocent after their fight with G55.
Boro and Inzil seem to think the wolves can’t afford to pick someone just to frame an innocent, so there must have been another reason.
Brinn seems to think Rikae was picked to frame her, and Mac seems to think Rikae was picked to frame him.

More specifically:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
Trying to put on my wolf gloves and mask, anytime people come out saying the kill was a "frame" to set up an innocent for an easy lynch, it pings (sorry Pitch ) my radar. I recall more than once of past experiences where we go through 3-4 day/night cycles without lynching a wolf. But the only deaths are ordos, and it winds up destroying the pack. The longer gifted stay in, the more they start to uncover, the more they're able to figure out and coordinate dreams/protections/hunts amongst themselves and eventually the wolfpack runs out of "unknown ordos" to kill. Bottom line is, every pack (maybe not) but purely on theory and experience you go for gifteds first. No matter the cost if it makes a fellow wolf look bad or not. I mean hell we have 5 wolves. So yes the "Brinn's being framed" is suspicious
This is a fair point. I don’t think the wolves can afford not to go for potential Gifteds.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
But I already see people talking as if the bandwagon against Brinn is a sign of her innocence? No??? If the wolves were trying to orchestrate an innocent lynch yesterDay, it could have just as well been Gal, who they also knew wasn't one of them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate re: Lottie
You are operating awfully close to the idea as if you somehow knew Brinn to be innocent. Objectively, the idea of Wolves keeping loud distracting player vs quiet one makes sense, but your whole theory stands on the idea that Brinn would have to be not one of them.
I agree with Lommy’s point above on how a bandwagon against Brinn doesn’t mean she is innocent, and Legate brings up an interesting point about Lottie seemingly assuming she is. If Brinn turns out to be innocent, this will merit a closer look. Boro later goes further and states that he is going to assume Brinn is a wolf. I assume the “people” who assume Brinn is innocent that Lommy is referring to are maybe Lottie and Huin? Also speaking of Huin there's this –
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huin
It seems pretty clear G55 brought up the no-vote/fake-vote idea specifically to derail the day. But Legate picking it up and running with it can't have been part of the plan (unless she knows him really well), which still inclines me against suspecting him. Pitch, though… I'm still not convinced by his switch of the blame for the idea from G55 to Legate. I'm not going to impart PitchWolf with supernatural Cobbler-spotting talents, but as I think I said yesterday, he could have been trying to move the focus specifically onto Legate, not off G55.
Why would a Pitchwolf want to move the focus onto Legate specifically, if not to move it away from a packmate or a suspected cobbler? What would be the motive? Huin also downplays the arguments against Brinn here:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huin
Conclusions? Well, obviously I think the arguments against G55 are stronger (to say the least) than those against Brinn. They were also broadly agreed on, particularly the idea that something was up in the GLP, whereas the only agreement in the Brinn voters seems to have been 'she's quiet… too quiet', with other reasons added on at will to justify that unease.
He also explicitly voted to save Brinn yesterDay. Something going on here, though I’m starting to think it’s too open to be a wolf defending a packmate.

Then there’s Brinn’s scenarios on why Rikae was killed:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
Scenario 1. The wolves thought Rikae was gifted. But if they though them the seer, then they know that they didn't dream of me. Really, people. Are some of you really suggesting that a wolf-version of me would be dumb enough to go after Rikae because I thought they were the seer? I don't know if any wolves would be so jumpy this early in the game. In a village of 20+, it would be very lucky indeed if the seer dreamt of a wolf on Night 1.

Scenario 2. Rikae's death was a way to frame me.

Scenario 3. Rikae looked more innocent after the exchange with G55, so they were an easy kill.

The problem is that all three of these are possibilities and there are probably more out there, which leads me to...

Scenario 4. The wolves love chaos.

There are so many reasons why the wolves could've chosen Rikae including confusing and distracting the village. If we spend too much time trying to theorize why they died, that takes away focus from the actual posting from YesterDay and toDay, which plays into the wolves' hands. That said, I am wary of anyone who will lean too much into focusing on the Night kill.
Alarm bells. 1 and 2 both connect the kill to Brinn herself. As others have pointed out, there might have been other reasons for suspecting Rikae is Gifted, or (as Mac demonstrated) other people who could have been “framed” by the kill. Additionally, I agree with Inzil and Boro that the wolves using a Night kill just to frame an innocent is unlikely. 3 is basically what Lottie suggested early on, and while not directly suspicious, also not very likely in my opinion. As for scenario 4, this is basically Brinn saying that we shouldn’t look at the Night kill because in her opinion it implicates her, and anyone who does look at it is suspicious. Under normal circumstances, I’d be crying “wolf!” just about now. But we also have Mac acting equally paranoid (and even weirder) about the Rikae kill.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
Obviously Gala considered Rikae to be innocent. In fact, by the fairly spirited way she went after them, she likely thought they were not just innocent, but gifted. What set her off against them was an error in a comment about me. Maybe she thought Rikae was the seer, dreamt of wolf-me (No, I’m not a wolf, but she Gala doesn’t know that) and tried to get me lynched by exaggerating what little could be found that early into Day1? Now Rikae is dead. Did the wolves follow Gala’s judgement and thought them gifted? I don't see it, unless maaybe if Brinn is indeed a wolf and the way Rikae suspected her set them off. Not gonna put too many eggs into that basket, though.

Unless... I'm being framed. By the exact thinking above, a mewolf would have reason to think Rikae really is the seer. If the wolves are preparing my head for the chopping block, I have to raise my eyebrow at those who suddenly suspected me near the deadline, since this would very much play into their hands/paws. *coughgreeniecough*
I’m still operating from the premise that a Night kill purely to frame somebody isn’t worth it for the wolves at this point (especially since, as we’ve seen, this particular one apparently can “frame” either Brinn or Mac, depending on which one you ask ). But more to the point, that first paragraph? As Lommy pointed out, how would that even occur to you if you’re innocent? He goes on to elaborate on this later:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
In her vote, Gala mentions other things, but following her posts, she very much started going after Rikae because they misrepresented something I said, thus exaggerating her suspicion of me. That's what everything spiraled out of control from. Gala must have thought Rikae was gifted, it makes no sense that she would go after them like that over that little reason if it was otherwise. A cobbler’s life isn’t worth much, but they tend to not go kamikaze this early without purpose.

Maybe she got hunter or ranger vibes from something, possible, but:
- it’s not unreasonable that seer-Rikae would pick me as their first dream.
- if you’re the seer and you know a wolf, what do you do? Keep quiet? Drop hints? Go all out and accuse? Try to subtly steer the village into lynching that wolf?
The way Rikae suspected me could fit the latter. Gala tried to associate herself with me several times, which makes me suspect that Gala thought so as well, a cobbler trying to reach out to who she thought was a wolf.

All of this was already on my mind during the Night and now Rikae is dead. Obviously, it’s a bit of a stretch for me to assume the wolves saw everything the same way. But here’s the thing - I got some fire late yesterDay from Greenie and a few. With a bit of a push, that case could gain momentum and get me lynched toDay - and an innocent lynched is a wolf not lynched.
So basically, his theory is that cobbler55 thought Rikae was a Seer who dreamed Mac is a wolf and that she tried to buddy up with Mac for this reason. This bit sounds plausible enough to me. But then Mac goes on to say that the wolves went after Rikae because if he was a wolf he would think Rikae was a possible Seer too, and the wolves want to frame him. I have a few problems with this. First, as discussed above, I don’t think the wolves can afford a Night kill just to frame somebody rather than going for potential Gifteds at this stage. Second, even if the wolves would kill just to frame somebody, he ignores the possibility that this might implicate someone other than himself. This is very close to how Brinn, too, is convinced that the kill was engineered just to frame her.

And lastly, Brinn addresses this herself:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn re: Mac
Impressions: I was agreeing with his posts, right up until he started suspecting me. As for those suspicions, I'm not sure what to think - could be genuine or he could be helping to set me up. His theory toDay is a stretch - I just don't find it likely that the wolves would kill Rikae for that reason.
I’m not sure why Mac’s framing theory is any more of a stretch than Brinn’s. In fact, I think they are strikingly similar, and find it curious that Brinn doesn’t.

Conclusions? I’d be very surprised if both Mac and Brinn are innocent. But I also have a hard time seeing them as fellow wolves.


EDIT: x-ed with Legate
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Old 05-07-2020, 03:13 AM   #347
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Originally Posted by Legate
Eönwölf

This makes me hope he is indeed a wolf so we get to call him that.
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Old 05-07-2020, 03:25 AM   #348
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Continuing the "posting on the go".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
To prove that I’m not crazy, or at least not that crazy.
(...)
In her vote, Gala mentions other things, but following her posts, she very much started going after Rikae because they misrepresented something I said, thus exaggerating her suspicion of me. That's what everything spiraled out of control from. Gala must have thought Rikae was gifted, it makes no sense that she would go after them like that over that little reason if it was otherwise. A cobbler’s life isn’t worth much, but they tend to not go kamikaze this early without purpose.

Maybe she got hunter or ranger vibes from something, possible, but:
- it’s not unreasonable that seer-Rikae would pick me as their first dream.
- if you’re the seer and you know a wolf, what do you do? Keep quiet? Drop hints? Go all out and accuse? Try to subtly steer the village into lynching that wolf?
The way Rikae suspected me could fit the latter. Gala tried to associate herself with me several times, which makes me suspect that Gala thought so as well, a cobbler trying to reach out to who she thought was a wolf.
I don't know. I now absolutely see where you are coming from, but in my opinion, it proves nothing.

How about this possibility? G55 saw Rikae making a mistake, rubbed her hands together and was like "let's cause some chaos. In the best case, the village will lynch someone innocent that gets caught in the inevitably flawed discussion that comes out of it, and even in the worst case, they will have wasted a Day bickering about nothing. As for myself, I can always back away by saying I realise that this was all just a mistake, because I know that it was."

Also, the "fake votes" debate was already going on by itself at that point, G55 was free to light another fire. The more, the merrier.

Seems to me her attitude was simple to create possible discussions in which Wolves could jump at people or innocents could misjudge people or whatever. Even if G55 wasn't sure whether Rikae was innocent or not, she could simply trust the WWs to sort it out.

As for her mentioning you - it may be nothing more and nothing less than wanting to drag more people into the debate: either you, because you already "showed interest", or to alert others that they should participate as well. Framing or not framing you she would leave for you to sort out - if you were a Wolf, you'd probably make sure you didn't get too muddled in this (which you didn't), if you weren't, then good riddance.

All in all, this is all very nice, but it has little merit for us at the moment, I think. On top of that, the chain of "G55 thought Rik was a Seer who dreamed me innocent" is a bit too many "ifs", kinda like "...because my mother's brother's cousin's former roommate once dreamed of my role."
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Old 05-07-2020, 03:43 AM   #349
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Incidentally, the "fake votes" from yesterDay faded absolutely into obscurity. True, less than half of the people participated in them. But still. Wondering if anything can be gleaned from them? For now, listing them for referrence, as every bit of knowledge helps, right:

FAKE VOTES

Shasta: Lommy (according to Boro's classification - Shasta said it very early in the Day, and it went ("I *were* to vote right now, it would be for Lommy " So not sure how seriously should we "count" it.)
Boro: Legate
(both rather early in the Day)
G55: Rikae (at the heat of the debate)
Rikae: Brinniel (later real vote too)
Lommy: Boro (later voted G55)
Legate: Kitanna (my prime suspect at the time)
Loslote: G55 (followed real vote later)
Mac: Mac ("Fake votes, eh? Chew on that! ")
Huinesoron: Lommy (she was his top suspect until he had to pick among the bandwagons)

I may have missed something (some are marked ++, some are marked +-. I think in the future, IF we do this, we could do the "+-", which would make it easier).

In case we wanted to do this also in the future, I think we could set a DL for it earlier. I am not sure if it's helpful, but it may, after all, be a bit more helpful the further we go.

Except I don't know if we want to do this toDay of all Days when the CobblerThread can act based on that.

Continuing to read...
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Old 05-07-2020, 03:45 AM   #350
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Urwen
I think I am gonna take a page out of Pervinca's book and 'disappear'.
Uh, does this mean you want to quit the game? I understand it might be a little overwhelming for someone who hasn't played it before, but you can still consider. (I wanted to say "We don't bite" but err... some of us might, it's sort of the point. )

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
The added value is that either the Wolves are really heartless with sick sense of humour (after the fight the two had, sending them in together), or (I'd rather hope, because FIVE people with zero empathy?!?) perhaps nice Wolves who hope that on the QT, G55 might apologise to Rikae and Rikae might forgive her and then they can share a... drink of... desinfectant, probably.
I don't know about you guys, but I think determining who joins Cobb55 in the QT shouldn't be a main factor for a wolf kill.
Ditto. Also, Rikae and Galadriel55 are two adult people who had an argument during a game where such things happen regularly, not to mention when one of their role was to deliberately sow chaos. The wolves, nor anyone else of us, are not required to nanny the dead. Come on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
Excluding Rikae's vote, Pitch's vote for Brinn, looks the most innocent to me. It came before the really either "wagon" developed.
And why would a vote look innocent simply if it's early? A wolf might want to get the voting business out of hand and slip out of scrutiny early too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
sally's vote strikes me as a little suspect. In the spur of the moment with such little time, I think everyone would have to accept G55's ranger claim. But if Brinn's not a wolf, sally's vote is the most suspicious.
Wait, what? You say that "everyone would have to accept G55's ranger claim" (I agree), then you still go on to say that this still depends on Brinn's role? I mean, unless you have a good reason to think a ranger claimant is lying, you do vote to save them regardless your own role and that of the other lynch options? Even if you are a wolf because it's "what an innocent would do" + as solid reason to vote someone as they come. I don't think Sally's vote says anything about her role, or Brinn's. Except Sally probably isn't the seer who dreamt that Brinn is the real ranger. (Addendum: I see Greenie basically said this much too.)

Paranoid!Mac is back and even more paranoid. Is he trying to look so paranoid that we will let him off the hook? I'm not buying his "perhaps the wolves framed me" theory. Setting someone up might be a nice bonus for the wolves at this point, but I very much doubt that was the main reason for them going for Rikae.

Not sure either what to make of Boro's conviction that innocent!Rikae laid a trap and Brinnwolf walked into it. I need to reread Rikae's posts to see if it really looks like that. While I agree with Boro that the wolves are unlikely to be motivated by the want to frame someone (as I said about Mac), I think it's somewhat dangerous to operate on the basis that you know who the wolves suspected to be a seer. I mean, Mac seems to be convinced it's him not Brinn that the kill points at. Personally I am unsure because I haven't still reread Rikae's posts. But perhaps Boro or Mac has been reading them more carefully overNight.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
Scenario 1. The wolves thought Rikae was gifted. But if they though them the seer, then they know that they didn't dream of me. Really, people. Are some of you really suggesting that a wolf-version of me would be dumb enough to go after Rikae because I thought they were the seer? I don't know if any wolves would be so jumpy this early in the game. In a village of 20+, it would be very lucky indeed if the seer dreamt of a wolf on Night 1.
Yes, but it's also entirely possible. I see you're arguing you'd be more chill and take the risk of not killing them if you were a wolf (fair enough), but perhaps you disagreed with your packmates and you weren't the one to send in the kill? Or perhaps you didn't realise how easily the death would be traced back to you?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
Scenario 2. Rikae's death was a way to frame me.
Here we go again.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eönwë
First, about my vote: there's not much more to say other than that I was on very limited time and had only managed to catch up to post #212, which was the most recent post when I arrived (as mentioned in my post). I did do a refresh just to see votes before making my final choice, but at that point we were still on page 6 and no-one had more than 2 votes so it was all still open (and I really didn't have time to look to see if I'd x-posted or not).
Fair enough.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eönwë
One thing I'm wondering about is the very very late timing of the G55 reveal. The options, at increasing levels of bluff, seem to be:

She was trying to get an innocent Brinn killed.
She wanted us to believe (1), but actually thought Brinn was an Infector and knew it was too late.
She wanted us to believe (2), but actually thought that Brinn was innocent and wants us to suspect her by assuming (2) is true.
I think she just wanted to 1) save herself possibly (and in doing so, sacrifice Brinn which just says she didn't think her a particularly likely wolf), 2) possibly flush out the real ranger, and 3) cause chaos. Why not do it earlier? Maybe she didn't think she'd actually get lynched, or it didn't cross her mind until then. I wouldn't spend too much time on this.


edit: xed with 2x greenie and 2x legate
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Old 05-07-2020, 03:52 AM   #351
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Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
Conclusions? I’d be very surprised if both Mac and Brinn are innocent. But I also have a hard time seeing them as fellow wolves.
I see Greenie and I are very much on the same track re: Rikae-Mac-Brinn, and I agree with this conclusion too.

As for Legate returning to the fake votes, I want to scream NOT AGAIN, but then again, perhaps something interesting can be gleaned from them, if one has the stomach...
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Old 05-07-2020, 03:53 AM   #352
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
Rikae does love traps. Rikae was pretty clear yesterday in that they did intentionally set a trap and suspected Brinn fell into it. Turns out Rikae had no special knowledge, but trying to put myself back into Day 1, the wolves wouldn't have known Rikae was an ordo. Brinnwolf fell into Rikae's trap and overall with Rikae's posting yesterday felt Rikae was a gifted, or in the least Rikae was going to be an assumed innocent.
What makes you think it was "clear" that Rikae "set a trap"? Feel like I am missing something that you (and Mac??) consider obvious.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
On Rikae's death...

Scenario 1. The wolves thought Rikae was gifted. But if they though them the seer, then they know that they didn't dream of me. Really, people. Are some of you really suggesting that a wolf-version of me would be dumb enough to go after Rikae because I thought they were the seer? I don't know if any wolves would be so jumpy this early in the game. In a village of 20+, it would be very lucky indeed if the seer dreamt of a wolf on Night 1.
Well of all people, I can imagine you doing it exactly with this sort of double-trick idea.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
Scenario 3. Rikae looked more innocent after the exchange with G55, so they were an easy kill.
My personal belief is 3. But even if it was not that, it likely was a part of the reasoning.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith View Post
My first thought on looking at the way the lynching went - we can assume that G55-cobbler did not think Brinn was a wolf or she wouldn't have tried to save herself?
G55 didn't know anything, so I think she'd just take the risk. It wasn't like there was much she could do. And in the case if Brinn turned out to be innocent, then self-voting would be stupid in retrospect.
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Old 05-07-2020, 04:03 AM   #353
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
Wait, what? You say that "everyone would have to accept G55's ranger claim" (I agree), then you still go on to say that this still depends on Brinn's role? I mean, unless you have a good reason to think a ranger claimant is lying, you do vote to save them regardless your own role and that of the other lynch options? Even if you are a wolf because it's "what an innocent would do" + as solid reason to vote someone as they come. I don't think Sally's vote says anything about her role, or Brinn's. Except Sally probably isn't the seer who dreamt that Brinn is the real ranger. (Addendum: I see Greenie basically said this much too.)
Indeed. Can you explain that, Boro?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
As for Legate returning to the fake votes, I want to scream NOT AGAIN, but then again, perhaps something interesting can be gleaned from them, if one has the stomach...
Well, I just thought, after all the hassle that thing caused, it would be absolutely the silver lining of it all if we just forgot they ever existed and let them rot there...
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Old 05-07-2020, 04:20 AM   #354
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#-1:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
Folks, can we please refer to Rikae as they/them/their? Thank you.
Thank you, Pitch, and sorry, Rikae. I've gone back and edited my first post toDay (solely for pronouns and verb-agreement); will look at my yesterDay's posts later.

#-1.5:

Or is that -0.5? Anyway, while doing that I found that I'd highlighted Rikae as the first person with what seemed to me a solid reason for voting Brinn. So that makes sense.

#0: There's a medium chance I may be suddenly unavailable starting ~2 hours before DL. Since my alternatives are 'vote early and maybe get to be here anyway' and 'don't vote early and maybe miss the vote', and to maintain full transparency, what I'm going to do is state my 'prospective early vote' around 2h15 before DL, and write up (but not post) a quick post making it official. If I can't read or write anything, I should at least be able to snatch five seconds to send that vote through. If I can spend actual time on the thread, I'll just scrap the stored post and take the last couple of hours into account. It's not great, but it's the best compromise I can find, and I figured I'd say well in advance.

Okay, on to the overview. Before I'm accused of being "helpful" again (Is there a term for the opposite of "damning with faint praise"? I feel like I'm being praised with faint damning!), I will say that these 'look at everything' posts are actually just my notes while catching up; I share them in the hopes that a) if my suspicions hold up we can catch the wolves and b) other people might spot things I missed.

I'm seeing a very quick division of the "why Rikae" discussion into two sides: Zil in #287 blames her place on the Brinn-wagon, and Lottie in #288 blames her fight with G55. Both of these seem reasonable (after all, if I'm right about Brinn's innocence, I'm sure the wolves would love to make her look guilty and get her killed!), but the fact that they come so close together makes me suspicious. Could this be a pre-planned exchange between two wolves? If they actually killed Rikae for a third reason, framing the discussion this way could keep people from noticing.

… actually, as Boro points out in #293, Zil and Lottie were the two people Rikae called out as suspicious for being on the "anti-Brinn wagon". So that could be their reason right there. (Lommy mentions the Wolves seeing Rikae as a possible Seer in #298; I'd say that confirms she's not in a Zil-Lottie pack, at least).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
This, I feel, is a distorting abbreviation of what I actually said. I said that there was probably a wolf among those suspecting me (i.e. Rikae, Brinn, Kit & Lottie), but didn't suspect Rikae specifically (rather the contrary). The paradox was I was getting non-wolvish vibes from both of them. I admit my post was pretty condensed, but was I so unclear or are you deliberately misreading me?
Ah, right. My mistake was reading 'there's probably a wolf here' as 'I think any of these could be a wolf, but don't know which'; I didn't connect the fact that the later part was you whittling down that list. I get it now.

#309 is a worrying post from Legate: he manages to imply lynching a wolf would be a bad thing, and straight up say that lynching the cobbler was 'unfortunate'. I've leaned innocent on Legate from the start, but I think that was mostly from the GLP; given that that was being stirred up by a cobbler, I think I'm going to have to consciously shake my impressions from it free.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
Of the people who were "on the table" when I voted, I thought Pitchwife looked the most innocent, but I didn't have much of a preference as for Gal vs Brinn. I suspected both of them a little, but neither was my top suspect. (Gal looked maybe more suspicious to me than Brinn, but more likely of the two to turn out to be a mere cobbler if evil.) Since the last few votes (looking at the tally, I think Rune and Ka's for Brinn), it clarified the overall situation to me that it's likely to be Gal vs Brinn in the end and I was okay with either. So I thought I might as well cast my vote then (and not later) and decided to vote Gal whose bandwagon seemed to me to have less momentum. What I meant by "let's make this more interesting" was "let's see if anyone rushes to save Gal, or joins the bandwagon after me to save Brinn". Adding a new vote candidate 15min before the dl when 2/3 of the village had already voted would have been the opposite of making it interesting…
Hmm. I think my issue with this is that keeping the vote evenly split didn't make things interesting. I can see how it kept things interesting, but 'make' sounds like you laying the groundwork to claim credit for whatever the result turned out to be.

#314 & #315: More back-to-back Lottie/Zil posts, this time backing each other up in their suspicion of Rune, but in a "he's not suspicious, just suspicious" way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Huinesoron's first post makes me wonder, because on the one hand, the way he's describing his Nightly activity as scribbling this post - which he clearly did - makes it more likely to be an innocent's endeavour; but on the other hand, I am just returning to my misgivings yesterDay and wondering whether he's exactly not being "helpful" here (perhaps WW with enought time on his hands, can imagine) plus subtly steering the discussion back to the "threesome" - and perhaps to Pitch, his yesterDay's suspect. If Pitch was innocent, it would be a safe way for a Wolf to keep on track with consistent suspicion onto a Day that starts the same way as the previous one: with the Village having nearly zero info.
What did I say? I'm "helpful"! I think a fair reading of my post will show that I wasn't specifically focussing on Pitch; it was just that he kept coming up! If I'd spent a chunk of the post trying to re-justify PitchWolf-GalaWolf as PitchWolf-Cobbler55, I could see this argument (as a wolf framing an innocent wouldn't have new evidence to go on). But other than a one-line mention that it didn't straight-up clear him, I think everything I said about him was from later, unrelated posts.

Ultimately, while I try to take a blank slate approach with these long posts, my suspicions don't go away just because it's a new Day. That sounds like what I'd expect from a wolf.

… in that spirit, then, and given my worries a few posts up about Legate, I'm going to set aside my innocent-lean on him and blank-slate this post (#318). And… overall, it looks like something from an innocent, not a wolf. I don't agree with his suspicions of Brinn, but it reads like he honestly has them (and as he says to Lottie, even 'don't suspect' isn't the same as 'know is innocent'). His multiple digressions onto wolf psychology could be wolfish distraction, but we've seen enough of this from all corners that I think it's just the equivalent of Day 1 banter.

Boro's #324 has more of the 'Brinn is very wolfy (but for no particular reason)' feel I've been getting from so many people. This is why I don't trust the Brinn-wagon: it feels like somewhere early on in it, a wolf managed to shape people's perception of Brinn so that everyone started seeing her as sketchy but without solid reasons. Pitch's 'just asking questions' posts (I think I mentioned 2 or 3 in my earlier post) seem like a prime candidate for the culprit.

Interestingly, Boro also notes a Zil/Lottie suspect pair. And is then followed up by Zil yet again (see #290) discussing suspicions he had which were proved wrong. Not analysing them any further, just talking about "wolves" we know aren't.

#327 gives me pause, because of the reminder that Lottie was the person whose suspicions I most agreed with on Day 1. If she's a wolf, then does it follow that I'm straight up wrong about PitchWolf? Maybe.

My main problem is that Lottie doesn't seem wolfish to me in isolation, just in her interactions with Zil. So I don't really know what to make of that.

(I'm closing on 2 hours into this and my brain is glazing over.)

I'm in two minds on Kitanna's study of the low-posters. On the one hand, spotting quiet wolves is a worthwhile endeavour, particularly since they had G55 vs Rikae to hide under yesterday. On the other hand, their lack of posts surely makes it unlikely that you're going to find much evidence? And yet somehow Urwen, who has not really engaged with the thread at all, gets a full screen of commentary.

Mac in #331 does some very nice looking analysis of… why G55 might have gone after Rikae. I'm not sure why this matters? He can't be leading into a 'maybe the wolves thought the same way', because his theory rests on G55 thinking he was a wolf. So… I'm confused.

Boro repeats the Brinn-wolf theory, leaning on the 'trap' comment (which was Rikae's catch, and we know Rikae is innocent). Which… yes, it's still a plausible argument, but it was never the main one used yesterDay. I think any discussion of Brinn's near-lynch which doesn't take that into account comes worryingly close to attempting to hide it. (And Boro didn't vote Brinn yesterday…)

Brinn and Eonwe both pop in with lists of possibilities, which both then use to say 'there's so many options we can't tell, so why think about it?'. Unlike Lommy yesterDay, I don't think I can look at this and think 'one is innocent, one is guilty'. Quiet!Eonwe still worries me a bit, but I'll call this one a wash. I'm going to note his Boro-Pitch theory here to look back on; I don't think I'm following it correctly right now, so I want to read it again later.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenie
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
PS: Huin... I now have Cobbler55 stuck in my head to the tune of Mambo No.5. Why did you do this to me??
Nooooooooooooooo!


"A little bit of Werewolf on the Downs
A little bit of Cobbler makes me frown…"

(Got to admit, I didn't know those lyrics went to that song. I've learned something today!)

THE Ka's analysis of Rikae's 'wolf-bait'... something that jumped out at me was this quote from Pitch replying to me(?):

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
I don't think I've seen that many people suspecting Mac to a significant amount (Rikae, of course, myself a bit, who else?), more like saying he's creepy & scary no matter what. Anyway, it's always good for a wolf pack not to get all entangled in the same skirmish but spread themselves out in several combat zones, so to speak.
Coupled with this from THE Ka:

Quote:
Originally Posted by THE Ka
This one… I’ve been trying to read for awhile now. I’ve even agreed with them on occasion when they’ve given small isolated replies.
I think that's exactly what I feel. When Pitch replies to me, addressing a concern I raised, I nod along and go 'yes, good point, I understand now'. But when he's not specifically trying to answer someone's suspicions of him, he just sets off so many alarm bells.

I've just refreshed and seen Legate's #345 'endless scroll' comment, and I'm feeling the same myself. But there's only five posts to go…

Greenie draws out what I was thinking about 'all the options' from Brinn by saying it looks like she's saying we should ignore the night-kill as implicating her. This is the sort of reasoning I'd expect to see on a legitimate Brinn analysis; I stand by my statement that most of yesterDay's logic was just 'she feels bad' stated in different words.

Lommy is right that Boro's 'the first vote on Brinn is least suspicious' line is suspicious in itself; it's not like there wasn't a lot of suspicion on Brinn at the time! And… I'm up to date!

Now to remember what I've said over the last, uh, three hours… :O

Okay. Pitch and Lommy were my main suspicions yesterday; they don't look as bad (so far) today, but neither am I totally comfortable with them. Zil looks dodgy, Lottie looks dodgy but only when paired with Zil. Boro is giving me bad vibes but nothing I can articulate, and I don't like Mac's 'what if everyone thinks I'm a wolf' theory much at all.

On the innocent side: Greenie has does good work on (actual reasons) why Brinn might be suspicious, and Legate is still striking me as innocent. Brinn herself… I agree that the evidence is piling up, but I still think the Brinn-wagon was suspicious as all get-out, so can't see how she could be a wolf.

Hopefully I can stay current and non-wall-of-text-y for the next few hours.

hS
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Old 05-07-2020, 04:24 AM   #355
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I'm looking at Rikae's posts now

I agree the list "Pitchwife, G55, Macalaure" was a bait, but I don't recall much coming out of it. Furthermore, I can't see it looking as a seer dream by itself as they couldn't have had three dreams by this point and there's nothing to differentiate between the trio.

First "substantial" post #121: voices not particularly convinced suspicion of Gal, Pitch and Mac. Again, no seer vibes.

Vaguely defends Legate. I can kinda see the grounds for Mac's paranoia based on #128 because Rikae seems to be operating with rather "how do I prove my suspicion of Mac is correct?" rather than "is my suspicion of Mac correct?" But it's still pretty far-fetched.

#138 laconically puts Brinn in the spotlight (for saying "I'm still a bit wary of G55 and Pitchwife (less so of the former), however I don't want to get caught in a trap.") which... sounds like an innocent catching a suspicious whiff they later fixated on, but it could of course have been interpreted as a seer finally finding a legit reason for voicing suspicion for their wolfy dream.

#148 it continues:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
Anyway, right now my fake vote would go to:

++Brinniel

For immediately repeating 2 of 3 names from my list as suspicions, and then backtracking explicitly to avoid getting caught in a trap right after I explained to G55 that my post was intended as a wolf trap. That was ostensibly a reply to Mac saying the group was mostly innocent, but the coincidence is just too much for me to ignore.

I know, these are the kinds of things a wolf would definitely make sure not to do, right? Right. So much so, it could be used as cover. And an innocent doing them coincidentally? That feels like a bigger stretch to me.
Mac is sort of out of Rikae's main suspects by now. He was really like a side note on Rikae's suspicions. So why is he so fixated on that?

Rikae's real suspicions seemed to be divided between Gal and Brinn. And I don't think the Brinn suspicion looks very seerish; on the contrary, it builds up based on the events on the game thread.

Thoughts?

Based on this, I'd say Mac looks much worse than Brinn. If Brinn is a wolf, I very much doubt Rikae looked the most seerish of all the villagers (remember there are four more wolves who could have had seerish accusations against them).

If Brinn is innocent, then I think Boro might look more innocent too (for his weird presumption that she's guilty, would a wolf think that way?) and Lottie looks worse (as has been pointed out, she sounded like she knew Brinn was innocent).

While Mac's conviction of it looking like Rikae-seer dreamt of him looks very paranoid wolfy. I'm unwilling to go very meta on this, but it all makes even more sense to me with Rikae/Mac being a RL couple and with them having been unhappy being on different sides in ww before. It's not a reason enough alone to incriminate Mac, but I think wolf!Mac would like to kill innocent!Rikae early on even if they didn't look particularly gifted. Of course, there would probably have to be other reasons for picking Rikae to convince his packmates it's the best choice.

Also? I think Rikae's death makes Legate look a little more innocent. He was the only one they consistently talked of as an innocent (including mild defense of him) and that alone might have been enough to ping the wolves' seer radar if neither Brinn nor Mac is a wolf.

I still would kinda like to lynch Brinn because her role would shed light on others' but I'm leaning towards lynching Mac as the best option toDay.


edit: xed with Legate and Hui and no time to read or reply right now
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Old 05-07-2020, 04:37 AM   #356
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That was a crazy end to Day 1. After talk of fake votes we then end up with a fake reveal! At least the village might be quieter with the Cobbler gone, but I dread to think how many QT posts there will end up being ...

As to why Rikae for the Night kill, I would assume the wolves were gunning for someone they thought might be the Seer. It would seem foolish for them not to always be aiming for a Gifted. Trying to set up frame jobs is all well and good in theory but their aim surely has to be to get rid of the greatest danger towards them.

Just going through yesterDay's votes. Have skimmed toDay but not read properly so sorry if things have already been mentioned/answered.

YesterDay's vote tally - I've put known roles in bold in the votes themselves, otherwise I've bolded as normal when talking about it:
Lhuna -> Lhuna

Rikae -> Brinniel (For immediately repeating 2 of 3 names from my list as suspicions, and then backtracking explicitly to avoid getting caught in a trap right after I explained to G55 that my post was intended as a wolf trap.) ~ Rikae

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
So, just putting this here because I think this could be important later. This Brinn-wagon everyone's talking about is two votes at this point, mine and Pitch's.

And the people who expressed concern about it are Huey, Lottie and Inzil, in that order (let me know if I missed someone).

Now, I found Pitch suspicious from the beginning, although just for vibes really, and Brinn could have started looking like a convenient vote. On the other hand, three people pushing back on a wagon for coming out of nowhere after two reasoned votes (by day 1 standards) is odd, too, especially if Brinn turns out wolfish or the trolley is redirected toward an innocent. Lottie's and Inzil's positions in the anti-Brinnwagon-wagon are, that is - Huey's is pretty bold.
A lot of Rikae's posts are understandably largely debate with G55, but this one seems to put forward most of their opinions from the Day. They are right about the supposed Brinn-wagon, other Brinn voters don't appear until a while later. Six other votes were cast before THE Ka, Rune, Legate and sally then also vote for Brinn. They mention Inzil and Lottie's votes being suspiciously placed in terms of going against a Brinn-wagon, but actually they were also after Shasta and Kitanna had just made it 3 votes for Pitch as opposed to 2 votes for Brinn, so they had also had the same effect.

G55 -> Rikae

Boro -> Pitchwife

Urwen -> G55

Pitchwife -> Brinniel 2

Kath -> G55 2

Shasta -> Pitchwife 2 (I'm jerking the reins a bit here) ~ Shasta

I'd be interested to know a bit more about this vote, Shasta. This vote created a three way tie at the time between Pitch, G55 and Brinn. It's certainly consistent with his earlier suspicions, I just wonder why Pitch over Brinn at this point, especially with the comment at the point of vote as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
Of those with votes, I won't vote for Rikae, could vote for Brinn or Pitch, and probably won't be voting for G55 unless it's to save someone I think is innocent.
From here, the cross posting of votes makes things difficult. The next vote I would normally consider more carefully, as it was the first to put anyone up to three votes, but it was cross-posted and it isn't clear with how many previous posts.

Kitanna -> Pitchwife 3

Inzil -> G55 3

Same issue - this was cross posted. So Inzil didn't know Kit had made it 3 for Pitch at the time he made it 3 for G55. So really, this is the vote that technically first took someone into the lead for the lynch.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Inzil
There's no one else I would want at this point, and it could say a lot about Legate, Pitch, and Rikae.
I'd like to know what he now thinks this says about Legate and Pitch, especially in relation to knowing Rikae's role now.

Lottie -> G55 4

Not a cross posted vote and so knows this vote puts G55 into prime position for the lynch.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
I think this lynch gives us the most information going forward, and I would be very surprised if she turns out to be innocent.
She earlier agreed with Kitanna about the G-L-P trio looking wolfy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
I've been going back and forth on who I think looks most wolf-like of those three, too. I tend to be more suspicious of G55 and Pitch at first glance, but I've had a very hard time getting a good feel on Legate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
Pitch brings up one of G55's first posts, which has been commented on before, and throws a bit of suspicion her way. This looks to me like Pitch doesn't want to be tied to G55 or seen as defending her, and it makes me more likely to believe Huin's hypothesis that they might both be wolves.
Gets drawn into the G55/Rikae stuff, and also doesn't like that G55 says Kitanna seems tense. Continues to feel G55 and Pitch may be a wolf pair.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
If we were doing the bonus vote, I would definitely be voting for G55 at this point.
Ok, so this all seems very consistent and I would really now like to know what she thinks about Pitch given G55 turned out to be a Cobbler and not a wolf. Also, as I was reading through, both her own posts and posts about her seem to somehow make her and Kitanna a pair, I guess from when she followed on the G-L-P idea from Kitanna.

Greenie -> Macalaure

Cross posted with the previous 4 votes. So at this point, Greenie thought Brinn and G55 had 2, Rikae, Pitch and Lhuna had one. An interesting point at which to throw in a new name. It's for coming up with an argument against Brinn sort of on the spot and then backdating said argument to an earlier post, I think. It's interesting coming after her earlier post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenie
I still think Brinn looks sketchy, and I agree with Mac's points about her, but at the same time Mac's post about her makes me really uneasy.
So one post from Mac ended up changing her from Brinn (who had 2 votes at this point) to Mac. And actually, she kind of agreed with Mac about Brinn's suspicious post:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenie
Still, this is the fishiest thing I’ve seen so far so definitely merits a reread.
So is the suspicion of Mac because he's almost gone on the same reasoning but his seems contrived opposed to hers? It's a less interesting placement for a new name on the list than it could have been due to the cross posting but still was the only other new name besides Urwen.

THE Ka -> Brinniel 3

Ok, not a cross posted vote so knows G55 is already on 4. She seemed to be debating between Brinn and Lottie.

Quote:
Originally Posted by THE Ka
Between Brinn and Loslote, Brinn is playing far safer in their submarine by just throwing a ‘I have a hunch’ dart at Zil and following the G55-Rikae debate with mild defense of the Day 1 blues. That’s safe and yes, even villagers could take up that tactic, but this consistently? Hrrm.
Quote:
Originally Posted by THE Ka
Between the two, only Loslote has when come under fire participated in giving a reason why at least for their support for either side in either debate, while Brinn so far as I’ve caught up, has shied away consistently. It makes me all the more suspicious Brinn is playing it entirely too safe out of the two.
So she had pretty much settled on Brinn as a vote, but it also would have been a strange time to put Lottie into the mix anyway.

Eönwë -> Urwen

I don't like this vote, just as I didn't like Urwen's in the first place. He talks about Zil, Brinn and Lommy all being suspicious, and then plumps for someone totally unrelated. 13 votes had been cast with 8 remaining at this point. No one liked Urwen's vote, but did Eonwe really think this was going somewhere?

Rune -> Brinniel 4

Rune said this was cross posted with everyone from 244. I would like to know if that includes 244 because that was Kit's vote for Brinn. Is Rune pushing up Brinn to tie with G55 here or did he not know that?

Lommy -> G55 5

No cross voting so knew she was putting G55 into the lead and adds the comment:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
Let's make this more interesting then
Which is indeed interesting ... I would very much like to know what she was thinking with this.

Hui -> G55 6

Hui clearly stated he wanted to avoid Brinn getting lynched and so chose G55 because she had the higher vote tally. It's a bold statement to make at a point where no roles were known. What made him think Brinn was definitely worth saving?

Legate -> Brinniel 5

Out of the options, which by now are realistically Brinn, G55, Pitch - definitely Brinn. Earlier thought Pitch might be Cobbler and thought G55 was playing in her usual style. Kitanna would have been his fake vote. By the time it got to real voting, this would have been a real throwaway so not going with it does make sense. Brinn is the highest up in his suspicions list so this vote does seem logical.

Mac -> Brinniel 6

Not a cross post, knows he's tying Brinn, knows this doesn't mean she's the lynch.

Brinn -> G55 7

Little to read from 'I have to save myself'. An innocent knows they're an innocent, doesn't know what G55 is, has to save themselves. A wolf knows they're guilty, knows G55 is an innocent, has to save themselves!

Sally -> Brinniel 7

This was the only vote after the reveal and again little to read from it. An innocent would be desperate to save the Ranger, a wolf would be desperate to be seen that they were trying to save the Ranger.

Lalaith - no vote

Lal, in the interests of the fact that the Day could have ended really differently, who would you have voted for there? I know it's with hindsight, but would still be interesting!
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Old 05-07-2020, 04:42 AM   #357
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
I still would kinda like to lynch Brinn because her role would shed light on others' but I'm leaning towards lynching Mac as the best option toDay.
I would concur that Mac has been the most obviously suspicious toDay, but I also remember I thought he seemed innocent yesterDay. Will have to check why that was.

Okay, looks like I said it in #93, that the suspicion of him seemed unsupported. But... that suspicion mostly came from Rikae (innocent) and Legate (I lean innocent). So I'm going to try and put that aside.

In which case, his taking my "I still think he looks innocent, why are you saying otherwise?" in #115 and trying to turn it into an implication that I thought he was guilty is looking at least slightly suspect. I can see the shape of his argument - but like his "the wolves thought G55 thought Rikae thought" thing, it's got a spirally feeling to it that could be a wolf just stringing things together to make something stick.

hS

Last edited by Huinesoron; 05-07-2020 at 04:42 AM. Reason: Crossed with Kath
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Old 05-07-2020, 05:01 AM   #358
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If a wolf was defending themselves, they’d of made a script or perhaps several to accommodate for this. You could ask a wolf trying to hide to explain themselves and you’ll get a lot of words, very direct, but not entirely what you asked. Another is the ‘duping delight’ of WW, usually the confident little glimmer in responses ‘you can ask/vote however you want’ or ‘it’s whatever you make of it’, which puts the blame of ‘mean interrogator’ on who’s pressing for an explanation.
This was The Ka..
I don't agree. A wolf does this, a wolf does that...as all of us who have done this before will know, a wolf can do all kinds of things and there are lots of different wolf styles.

YesterDay I said I thought wolves might pick fights with each other. I also think that with five wolves they could afford to throw one of their number under a bus if the mood took them. I've seen them do that, too.
One thing all wolves do have in common however is superior knowledge. A wolf knows enough to be able to judge their voting well, look good and not draw attention to themselves, particularly in the day 1 voting when no-one else knows anything much. And they will also be able to subsequently pick on hapless ordos for 'odd' voting, bandwaggoning etc.
I speak from bitter experience here btw, in the last WW I played, I was stitched up like a kipper by the wolves who framed me for some apparently suspicious Day 1 voting.
From all of this I am less inclined to suspect Eonwe, incidently.
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Old 05-07-2020, 05:11 AM   #359
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Lalaith - no vote

Lal, in the interests of the fact that the Day could have ended really differently, who would you have voted for there? I know it's with hindsight, but would still be interesting!
This from Kath.
Good - and fair - question! It would have depended on the time I arrived. If I had arrived just before deadline, as opposed to just after , I would have done exactly what Sally did, panicked and tried to save "the Ranger".
An earlier, more measured vote? - As previously stated, Legate and Boro were the ones worrying/scaring me yesterDay so probably one of them. Whereupon I would probably have been accused of spreading the vote in a suspicious way

Generally I am better at spotting innocents than wolves so votes are always a trial to me!
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Old 05-07-2020, 05:34 AM   #360
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eönwë View Post
Now, to business:

One thing I'm wondering about is the very very late timing of the G55 reveal. The options, at increasing levels of bluff, seem to be:[LIST=1][*]She was trying to get an innocent Brinn killed.[*]She wanted us to believe (1), but actually thought Brinn was an Infector and knew it was too late.[*]She wanted us to believe (2), but actually thought that Brinn was innocent and wants us to suspect her by assuming (2) is true.
Since she was the cobbler I'd say the chances of her trying to get an innocent Brinn killed are small. She would have no knowledge if Brinn was guilty or innocent except her own read on the situation. Her fake reveal seems more like a little "save myself for another day" and a little bit "sow some last minute discord if I'm to die."
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