Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[Gurthang]

I really feel that Saucepan Man is innocent.

++Rune Son of Bjarne

Mainly for his very wolfish actions toDay.

[Findëasëa]

++ Rune
I really think sauce is innocent, Good luck if I am not back tommorow!

[Cailín]

Saddened by the loss of their Seer, the passengers were more determined than ever to catch a wolf today.

"We cannot fail Holbytlass," claimed Caranlondien passionately. "I shall personally find the wolvish ones among us today." She observed her fellow passengers uncomfortably. "I need a drink. Where's Glirdan?"

The rest of the passengers shared her sentiments (and not just regarding the drink) and immediately, a heated discussion ensued. At the end of the day, there seemed to be no one who had not been accused of some kind of crime, even those who Holbytlass had declared innocent.

"Findeasea kicked my dog," said Firefoot huffily. "I saw her do it."

Yet none was accused with such fire as Rune, Son of Bjarne, formerly a slave and now merely a nuisance. With a clear majority, he was the one facing the wrath of the mob today.

"We don't have a plank anymore," said Gurthang, mournfully gazing at the broken piece of wood.

"I always find decapitation works particularly well for me," grinned Taliesin.

"Any last words?" asked Kath.

Rune looked around nervously, cowering against the railing.

"Confess, cheese eater!" demanded Anguirel, pointing his sword at the slave. "You feasted on Holbytlass eyeballs tonight."

"Well…," said Rune in a soft, shaky voice. "One has to eat something when there is no cheese to be had."

A wave of fear passed through the ship and even Sir Horatio backed off a little. The fearful, guileless eyes of the slave had suddenly turned yellow.

"And we all know," continued Rune. "We all know the full moon… even the night thing… is just a myth."

With a maniacal laugh, he threw his head back and gazed up to the sun. As his nose started to lengthen and his face turned hairy, he let out a howl and jumped on Weslamond the Dread Pirate jr. Fiercely he aimed for her eyes, trying to gauge them out with his newly begotten claws.

"Eyeballs, eyeballs," he sang to the sky.

Weslamond screamed in despair but the passengers seemed nailed to the deck. Even though the wolves had picked them off one by one for four successive nights now, none could quite believe they had actually managed to find one after so many failures. In a last, hopeless attempt to save herself from blindness, Weslamond jumped over the railing.

"Har!" she laughed. "I learned to swim, you know." She paddled a bit further away from the ship. "And I am getting out of this mad journey. No treasure to be had anyway."

Suddenly, from behind her, Weslamond heard a piercing screeching sound.

"It cannot be!" she gasped.

It could. Within minutes, Screaming Eels had devoured the wannabe-pirate. None of the passengers seemed even remotely disturbed.

Meanwhile, it took the combined efforts of Sir Anguirel and Taliesin to fight off the loose wolf on the ship. Finally it was Durelin who came to her senses.

"Enough," she spoke. With a dramatic ninja gesture (that of course was invisible to normal human eyes because of speed, agility and similar qualities) she took out a kunai and threw it at Rune the Wolf. It hit him right in his heart and the wolf-slave fell to his knobbly, hairy knees.

"Too little…," he grunted. "… Too late."

"We shall see about that," said Findeasea.

The tides were turning. The passengers had at last caught a fiend.

--

Captain Cailín's Log

What a relief! He sang about cheese even in his sleep, you know.

Signed,
Kath





~The dead ~
Nogrod – sub-mod, ripped into pieces of flesh and bones by the werewolves on Night1
Cailín – mod, forced to walk the plank at the end of Night1/ the beginning of Day1
Nilpaurion Felagund – ranger, lynched himself at the end of Day1
Eomer of the Rohirrim – ordinary passenger, replaced the main topmast during Night2
Lhunardawen - ordinary passenger, overcame her seasickness by force at the end of Day2.
JennyHallu - Hunter
Formendacil - ordinary passenger
Mormegil - ordinary passenger, found fault in the ship's structure at the end of Day3
Holbytlass - Seer, killed by the wolves during Night 4
Diamond18 - ordinary passenger, brutally devoured by Screaming Eels
Rune Son of Bjarne - Wolf, pierced by Durelin's dagger at the end of Day 4


~The living ~
Durelin -- eye-borrowing Jounin instructor
Caranlondien -- ships's bartender
Findëasëa -- Occupational health and safety specialist
Kath -- plotting slave
Lalaith -- Football Widow
Firefoot -- wandering traveller with a dog that dislikes pirates

Gurthang -- Plank Operator
Taliesin -- criminal who was set adrift
Saucepan Man -- Rear-Admiral Sir Horatio Potboiler
Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel)
Glirdan -- drunken porter
Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short)


Another Night has come. Sweet dreams, everyone. And wolves, tell me, who shall not wake up?

[Nogrod]

Fin had had been worried about the next night already as the day draw to a close. Her last word to her mates were "Good luck if I am not back tomorrow!".

She went quietly to ther new cabin that had been allotted to her after Jenny's death. It felt strange and unfamiliar, but surely it was more spacious and cleaner than her old one. And there was a shower there too! Luxury..., she thought.

She tried to rest but couldn't. She checked the door twice and tried to listen for any sounds approaching her cabin. There were none.

Finally she decided to look outside. She was fed up with the air, thick of her own desperation in the cabin. The fresh seawind blowed her bad thoughts away for a while. She filled her lungs with the fresh air and leaned over the railing. The moon was high up in the sky and everything was calm. Why am I so nervous? Why should it be me? she thought and gazed around one more time. There was nothing.

She went back into the cabin with a fresher mind, but was soon sweating again with fear being locked inside. This time I will not go out, whatever it takes. It's just too dangerous out there I'll try the shower instead.

She drew the shower curtains and untapped the bottom of the barrel that was filled with water. But as soon as she felt its cool and soothing effect on her skin, a series of terrible, ear-breaking high-piched screams filled the air with their nervewrecking pulse. She turned just early enough to see a pair of fangs coming through the curtain, ripping her in pieces. The water from the barrell washed away her blood...

In the morning, the first thing the passengers noticed was the fleet of sharks swimming around the ship. The second one was the missing of Fin. Both Sirs made the deduction that Fin's body had been dumped to the sea and these guys were waiting for more. But soon Caran came out from Fin's cabin, holding a piece of paper she had found over the washed remains of Fin's body. It read simply enough:

Murder, murder, that's the game.

For a moment they all stood silent. But the sun was rising.

~The dead ~
Nogrod – sub-mod, ripped into pieces of flesh and bones by the werewolves on Night1
Cailín – mod, forced to walk the plank at the end of Night1/ the beginning of Day1
Nilpaurion Felagund – ranger, lynched himself at the end of Day1
Eomer of the Rohirrim – ordinary passenger, replaced the main topmast during Night2
Lhunardawen - ordinary passenger, overcame her seasickness by force at the end of Day2.
JennyHallu - Hunter
Formendacil - ordinary passenger
Mormegil - ordinary passenger, found fault in the ship's structure at the end of Day3
Holbytlass - Seer, killed by the wolves during Night 4
Diamond18 - ordinary passenger, brutally devoured by Screaming Eels
Rune Son of Bjarne - Wolf, pierced by Durelin's dagger at the end of Day 4
Findëasëa - ordinary passenger, ripped in pieces in shower during Night5


~The living ~
Durelin -- eye-borrowing Jounin instructor
Caranlondien -- ships's bartender
Kath -- plotting slave
Lalaith -- Football Widow
Firefoot -- wandering traveller with a dog that dislikes pirates

Gurthang -- Plank Operator
Taliesin -- criminal who was set adrift
Saucepan Man -- Rear-Admiral Sir Horatio Potboiler
Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel)
Glirdan -- drunken porter
Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short)

Day5 has started. Good luck to you all!

[Glirdan]

Wow! Two shocks in one! The first being Diamond being the Lover (if I am correct that is). The second is Fin's death. Why Fin? What did she do? Did she hit to close to home on one of her guesses? Or was this just a random kill? Gah! These Wolves are getting annoying... I shall be back later...much later. I need to go clear my head and come up with an analysis of Fin's suspicions...

[Durelin]

Aha.

I suppose we should look at both the late Rune voters, and some of the Saucey voters, in particular (though I'm not saying we limit it to that).

I imagine Fin's death isn't all that strange. She was one of our known innocents...now we know only that two living people are innocents. Her suspicions may or may not be far off.

[Caranlondien]

Fin was killed because she was one of the known innocents. If not her, it would have been Taliesin or me.

And I don't think Diamond was the Lover... I think she must have asked to be taken out or something. I mean, if Rune were her lover, he wouldn't have eaten her eyeballs in the narration, would he?

Now that we know Rune was a wolf, maybe we can find some clues from his posts.

[Glirdan]

Fin was killed because she was one of the known innocents. If not her, it would have been Taliesin or me.

Oops! Sorry! I forgot about that. I hate memory loss...

And I don't think Diamond was the Lover... I think she must have asked to be taken out or something. I mean, if Rune were her lover, he wouldn't have eaten her eyeballs in the narration, would he?

True enough. Hmmm... but why would she have been taken out?

[Nogrod]

The narration is now in.

Sorry it took longer I expected, but in a hurry I managed to delete the first version of it as I put it into a wrong place and had to write it again...

Good luck to the game everyone!

[Caranlondien]

Hmm. Well, Diamond mentioned the other Day that she was considering asking to be removed because of (I believe) time constraints. Perhaps more RL stuff came out and she thought she wouldn't be able to help much.

[Lalaith]

It's a pity about Diamond deciding she had to quit, (that can be the only explantion for the eels, I think) Today, the person who has replaced her as the one I feel most secure about (apart from the two provens we have left) is Guy, who just felt very innocent in his behaviour yesterday.

I'm glad we caught Rune but we still have three more.
One thing I've noticed..ever since Saucie said he didn't suspect Fin because Fin made too many mistakes about the rules, we've had a whole spate of "whoops, silly me!" type posts. Durelin, Glirdan, I'm looking at you.
And as for Gurthang, I'm still putting him as chief suspect partly because of this:

If it comes down to me and Saucepan, I'll probably still vote Rune. If I vote to save myself, it means the village would have killed me if I hadn't vetoed it. That's rather unproductive, as it almost guarantees that most of tomorrow's discussion will be about me. In my mind, it'd be better to leave an innocent who more people trust (SpM) than an innocent people don't trust (Me).

This statement just doesn't make much sense. In this envisaged scenario, where Gurthang and Saucie are neck and neck in the voting, how does it figure that more people trust Saucie than Gurthang? This just smacks of a wolf trying to look like a good guy.

[Durelin]

One thing I've noticed..ever since Saucie said he didn't suspect Fin because Fin made too many mistakes about the rules, we've had a whole spate of "whoops, silly me!" type posts. Durelin, Glirdan, I'm looking at you.

I can tell you right now I probably didn't even read the post that Saucie said that in because I definitely didn't read that.

Good observation, Lalaith. I'm looking at Gurthang, too, because of his late vote for Rune (by then a wolf knew it would be too late). He could have brought Sauce and Rune into a tie, but Rune still would've been lynched.

Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean anything.

[Caranlondien]

Actually, Lalaith, I was thinking the same thing. I do still think Durelin is to be trusted, by Glirdan is looking a bit more conspicuous.

Now the other two Fin was looking at yesterDay were Lalaith and Gurthang. While it's quite possible that she was killed because she would just generally have been the most helpful of we three innocents, it might also have been because she was on target there.

I still have to go over Rune's posts

[The Saucepan Man]

Ahoy there, me hearties!

I am feeling most optimistic, you know, after the death of Rune. It's obviously not good that we lost Fin, but that was not unexpected. Not that it means much to the rest of you, but I expected the Wolves to leave Taliesin around, what with his supicions of me 'n all, so I was fully expecting the absence of either Fin or Caran this morning. Indeed, I must raise a metaphorical arched eyebrow at Glirdan's (feigned?) surprise over this turn of events. It was always going to be one of three people that we lost last Night.

"But why the optimism, Rear-Admiral?" I hear you cry. Well, two reasons in particular.

First, the innocents are the majority in a three-way fight. Effectively, there are seven innocents against two teams of two, with all to play for. At least one, and possibly both, of the known non-Wolves are on the innocents' side. And the rest of us may not know who each other are, but numbers remain on our side for now and, if we keep our wits about us, we may even be able to pull together in a fashion.

Secondly, the death of a Wolf always provides top quality evidence. However diligently that Wolf, and his fiendish comrades, may have tried to hide their tracks, there will always be clues. We now have a wealth of evidence to sift through. I suggest that we set to it. In particular, we should be looking at:

- The cumulative voting patterns over the four Days so far.
- In particular, the way the votes went yesterDay, given the (happily fruitful) prospect of Rune's lynching throughout much of the Day.
- The manner in which suspicion against Rune gathered yesterDay.
- What Rune has said about his fellow passengers over the four Days.
- What Rune's fellow passengers said about him over the four Days.
- Possible other connections between prospective Wolves and prospective Lovers.
- The possible effect of the Lovers' presence on Wolvish behaviour, both retrospectively and prospectively.

We should also, of course, continue carefully to consider what each of us says as the Day progresses.

Since I could be relatively reassured that I would survive the Night, I took the opportunity to do a fair bit of analysis along the above lines overNight. I'll try to post as much of it as I can toDay*, since I anticipate that I will not be around too much on the morrow*. I have no definite conclusions at this stage, and I am really aiming just to post the evidence, pose a few questions on the basis of it and perhaps put forward a few tentative theories.

I am really rather confident that we will catch another Wolf toDay, you know. Wouldn't it be interesting if we were to catch one of the two remaining Loveless Wolves, setting up the delicious prospect of two remaining Wolves who each know that the other cannot be trusted?

Oh well, best get on. Back soon.

Toodle pip!

Edit: * For clarity, I mean that I will try to post as much of the analysis RL tonight as I will not be around much RL tomorrow.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

This statement just doesn't make much sense. In this envisaged scenario, where Gurthang and Saucie are neck and neck in the voting, how does it figure that more people trust Saucie than Gurthang? This just smacks of a wolf trying to look like a good guy.

Maybe I'm biased against me or something, but it does seem to me that more people trust Saucepan than me. About everyone seems to have me somewhere on their suspect lists. Some high enough for votes, others not, but just about somewhere for everyone. Saucepan is on, at most, half the people's lists. (And no, I haven't counted. I'm just estimating.) Henceforth, more of the village thinks he's innocent than thinks I'm innocent.

Good observation, Lalaith. I'm looking at Gurthang, too, because of his late vote for Rune (by then a wolf knew it would be too late). He could have brought Sauce and Rune into a tie, but Rune still would've been lynched.

Correct me if I'm wrong (which is becoming an annoying trend), but the voting was tied between Rune and Saucepan. Rune was up for the lynch because he had reached the tie amount first. If I had voted for Saucepan instead of Rune, our dear Rear Admiral would have been killed.

Of course, knowing that probably somehow makes me more suspicious.

Oh, I also got the impression that Diamond was removed and was not the lover. Disappointing.


Hmm... Saucepan seems very... cheery. Which is something I don't see often from him in this game. He is right, though. We're in a much better spot than yesterday. If I can muster up the time, I'll do a voting analysis, since those are my favorite.

[Durelin]

You're right...they were tied already.

Argh, sorry, Gurthang.

Gah, lynch me for my stupidity, please...

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, here's the first part of my overNight workings. Voting record from Day 1, considered in light of what we know now. Known innocents are in italics (with surviving known non-Wolves also underlined). Wolf is in bold.

1. Morm ->Glirdan (Glirdan-1)
2. Lhuna ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-1)
3. Rune ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2)
4. Glirdan ->Kath (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1)
5. Nilp ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
6. TGWBS ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
7. Durelin ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-2)
8. Diamond ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-2)
9. Anguirel ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3)
10. Lalaith ->Form (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1)
11. Caranlondien ->Jenny (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1, Jenny-1)
12. Firefoot ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1)
13. SpM ->Holby (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1)
14. Holby ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1)
15. Jenny ->Holby (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2)
16. Formendacil ->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-1)
17. Findeasea ->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2)
18. Gurthang ->Diamond (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
19. Eomer ->Glirdan (Glirdan-2, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
20. Taliesin ->Eomer (Glirdan-2, Eomer-5, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)

No vote: Kath

A few points worth noting, I think. First, as is often the case on Day 1s (whenever my line is present, at least), most of the votes went to innocents. The votees from Day 1 who remain unknown are: Glirdan (2 votes), Kath (1 vote) and Lalaith (2 votes). If we tentatively assume that at least one vote on Day 1 went to a Wolf (and I think it likely), then one of these is a Wolf. Then again, I'm not sure how far this gets us as, with 9 unknowns and 3 Wolves, one of these is likely to be a Wolf on the law of averages.

More pertinently, of those in the Eomer bandwaggon, one was a Wolf and only one, TGWBS, remains unknown. Would two Wolves have voted in the Eomer bandwaggon? I tend to think not, which reinforces my feeling that TGWBS is likely to be innocent.

Of those in the Nilp bandwaggon, three remain unknown: Durelin, Anguirel and Firefoot. Sticking by my theory that at least one Wolf voted in the Nilp bandwaggon, then at least one of these is a Wolf.

I think that the two remaining Wolves would probably have placed their votes elsewhere. Of the "other" voters, Glirdan, Lalaith, SpM, Gurthang and (non-voter) Kath remain unknown. I think two of these people (excluding myself, for my purposes, obviously) are Wolves.

Only one possible Wolf-on-Wolf vote - Glirdan's vote for Kath. I think it unlikely that a Wolf would have voted for another Wolf on Day 1, if for no other reason than it would most likely arouse their fellow Wolves' suspicions that they might be the traitor among them. If that's right, then either Glirdan or Kath is a Wolf, but not both. Glirdan's vote might be described as a safe vote, given that Kath was not under much suspicion. As for Kath's non-vote, well some of you have already considered whether a Wolf would be likely not to vote. Personally, I don't see why not.

Other than that, the only vote that strikes me as particularly Wolfish is that of Gurthang, a safe, throwaway vote for Diamond when Nilp was almost done for and the only either possible lynchee was Eomer, although that is a point which has been raised previously.

Day 2 voting record analysis coming up ...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

If I had voted for Saucepan instead of Rune, our dear Rear Admiral would have been killed.

Indeed. Churlish though it may seem, given that you saved my life, I have something to say about that. But all in good time.

[Caranlondien]

Day One

He posts nonsense pretty much all Day, until he votes for Eomer, jumping onto Lhuna's vote with a silly grudge-reason.

Day Two

#113: Eomer is dead, oh no! He apparently doesn't know what to think about it

#119: Thinks Eomer was killed to create confusion. Puzzled by all the votes for Nilp.

#133: Thinks Jenny is innocent.

#161: Thinks either Anguirel or morm is a wolf. Can't read Glirdan at all. Thinks Lhuna is innocent.

SPM- I will need to see some heavy evidence against him before I will consider voting for him. Sure he is very dangourus as a wolf, but also very helpfull as inoccent.

Will probably vote for either Holby or Firefoot, attributing it to SpM's post. Thinks tgwbs looks "a bit crooked".

#179: Continues to defend Jenny.

#189: Eliminates Firefoot from the candidates for his vote due to a recent helpful post, leaving Glirdan and Holby in the running. Votes Holby.

Day Three

#227: Defends himself against Glirdan's accusations of being unusually quiet.

#234: Highly suspicious of tgwbs. Mildly suspicious of Glirdan. Still thinks either morm or Anguirel is a wolf. Still thinks Holby is somewhat suspicious. Removes Firefoot entirely from his suspect list.

#239: Votes tgwbs.

Day Four

#302: Nothing important.

#310: Responds to Diamond's accusal of SpM, defending him, though being careful to point out he's willing to vote SpM if he gets some convincing arguments.

#326: Turns Gurthang's accusation right back on Gurthang. Also continues to suspect Anguirel, since morm turned out innocent, but seems to be backing off.

#329: Continues to defend himself against Gurthang.

#355: Votes SpM to try to save himself.

------------------------------------------

Rune gives us very little to go on. I can't help but wonder if he was an intentional sacrifice.

He keeps Glirdan on mild suspicion, but always has a higher-up suspect. A safe place to keep one of your fellow wolves. The move away from Firefoot is also suspicious, as is his defense of SpM.

EDIT: added the title "Rune" so that people know who the heck I'm talking about...

[The Saucepan Man]

Same format.

1. Morm -> Anguirel (Ang-1)
2. Findesea -> Lalaith (Ang-1, Lalaith-1)
3. Lhuna -> Firefoot (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1)
4. Lalaith -> Formendacil (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1)
5. Rune -> Holbytlass (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-1)
6. SpM -> Holbytlass (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holbytlass-2)
7. Kath -> Jenny (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Formendacil-1, Holby-2, Jenny-1)
8. Glirdan -> Lhuna (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-1)
9. Anguirel -> Lhuna (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-2)
10. Caran -> Firefoot (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-1, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-2)
11. Jenny -> Formendacil (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-2)
12. Taliesin -> Lhuna (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-3)
13. Durelin -> Holbytlass (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-3, Jenny-1, Lhuna-3)
14. Holbytlass - Lhuna (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-3, Jenny-1, Lhuna-4)
15. Firefoot -> Lalaith (Ang-1, Lalaith-2, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-3, Jenny-1, Lhuna-4)
16. Gurthang -> morm (Ang-1, Lalaith-2, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-3, Jenny-1, Lhuna-4, morm-1)

Did not vote: Formendacil, TGWBS, Diamond

Again, the majority of the votes were for innocents. The unknows who received votes were: Anguirel (1 vote), Lalaith (2 votes) and Firefoot (2 votes). Again, it's likely that there's a Wolf there, by the law of averages if nothing else.

The main bandwaggon of Day 2 was the Lhuna Express. Of the Lhuna-voters, Anguirel and Glirdan remain unknown. The voting on Day 2 was quite different in its manner from Day 1. There were no clear contenders for lynching, at least not until relatively late on. So I am not so certain that there's a Wolf among the Lhuna bandwaggon. They might well have sought to distance themselves from it. If there is a Wolf there, I tend to think Glirdan the more likely one. As I recall, it rather came out of the blue, Lhuna having featured fairly low on his earlier suspect list based on those who voted for Eomer. I cannot now recall, however, the circumtances of Ang's vote.

The secondary bandwaggon was that for Holbytlass, and there we find our known Wolf, Rune. The other two Holby-voters, Durelin and myself remain unknowns. It is, however, a well known fact that Wolves spread their votes, so it follows that the two of us are innocent. OK, perhaps not, but it does reinforce my warm, fuzzy feeling for Durelin (although I should perhaps make clear that love is not involved ).

Again, only one possible Wolf-on-Wolf vote: Firefoot's vote for Lalaith. Based on the same reasoning as that for Day 1, I think it unlikely that any Wolf would have voted for another on Day 2. There was no need to. And Firefoot's vote for Lalaith, taking her to 2 votes with four potential votes still in the offing, looks far too risky to me in the circumstances to be a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. I am fairly sure, therefore, that, if Lalaith is a Wolf, the Firefoot is not, and vice versa.

Gurthang's vote again stands out as a possible Wolfish vote. With three non-voters, the one vote for morm (cast, I believe, shortly before the deadline) was never going to kill him. Again, a safe, throwaway vote.

As with Kath, TGWBS's non-vote does not exempt him from suspicion, even though his two fellow non-voters were innocent.

Day 3 to follow ...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Caran

I can't help but wonder if he was an intentional sacrifice.

I am almost certain that it was, or at least one that became pragmatic during the Day. There was at least one Wolf voting for Rune yesterDay, possibly more, I am sure of it. But again, all in good time.

[The Saucepan Man]

Same routine.

1. Diamond -> SpM (SpM-1)
2. Rune -> TGWBS (SpM-1, TGWBS-1)
3. Morm -> Firefoot (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1)
4. Firefoot -> Durelin (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1)
5. Taliesin -> Glirdan (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1)
6. Durelin -> Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1)
7. SpM -> Holby (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-1)
8. Glirdan-> morm (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-1, morm-1)
9. TGWBS -> morm (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-1, morm-2)
10. Caran -> Holby (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-2, morm-2)
11. Holby -> Durelin (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-2, morm-2)
12. Lalaith -> Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-2)
13. Anguirel -> Kath (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-2, Kath-1)
14. Kath -> morm (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-3, Kath-1)
15. Gurthang -> Holby (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-3, morm-3, Kath-1)
16. Findesea -> Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-3, Holby-3, morm-3, Kath-1)

Now things get interesting, as Rune begins to attract some votes.

But I will first turn to the morm bandwaggon, comprised as it was of 3 of those who remain unknown: Glirdan, TGWBS and Kath. I somehow doubt that the Wolves could have resisted the opportunity to get morm in the frame, even though there was never very much in the way of evidence against him as far as I can see. I am therefore pretty sure that one (but probably only one) of the morm voters is a Wolf. Based upon my feeling that TGWBS is likely innocent, that points to either Glirdan or Kath.

There was also a Holby bandwaggon, comprising myself and Gurthang (plus an innocent Caran). Hmm, if I were to conclude that a Wolf was likely to have joined this bandwaggon (and I'm not entirely sure on that) then, as far as I am concered, that can only point to Gurthang. His vote is an interesting one as it bucked the trend of the previous Days, being as it was for an innocent who was in severe danger of being lynched. I believe that this followed comments about his previous votes having been safe, so (as I think I speculated yesterDay) was he trying to disguide his Wolfish behaviour? Or is that too obvious?

Rune voted early for TGWBS. I think that the Wolves would probably still have been avoiding Wolf-on-Wolf votes at this stage and this would, in any event, have been a reckless Wolf-on-Wolf vote as I believe that there was a fair bit of muttering about TGWBS at the time Rune voted. I commented at the time that I thought the Wolves might have marked out TGWBS as a potential lynch victim for Day 3. Rune's Day 3 vote therefore puts TGWBS in a rather good light, I think.

The same might also be said of Lalaith's vote for Rune. Why would one Wolf put another Wolf on 2 votes, to bring him level with three other cadidates? The only credible possibility, to my mind, is that she is the Lover Wolf and was trying to kill him, but I think that very unlikely as it would be far too risky, or that she is a Loveless Wolf and suspected him as the Lover Wolf. On balance, though, I still think it unlikely that a Wolf voted for a fellow Wolf on Day 3 and Lalaith's vote for Rune therefore speaks in her favour as far as I am concerned.

One other possibility occurs to me. Perhaps Lalaith is the innocent Lover, knew Rune was a Wolf and was trying to take him out. Possible, but it would have been a risky move for her, as it risked exposing her to the Loveless Wolves.

Other possible Wolf-on-Wolf votes: Anguirel for Kath and Firefoot for Durelin. Neither of these seems likely to me, but it's possible that one of them was.

Relishing the prospect of a Day 4 analysis ...

[Gurthang]

Well, here's what I could scrounge together in the 25 minutes I had.

- - - - - - - - - - - - Day 1 - - - - - Day 2 - - - - - Day 3 - - - - - Day 4

Durelin . . . . . . . . . Nilp . . . . . . . .Holby . . . . . . . Rune . . . . . . . Rune
Caranlondien . . . . .Jenny. . . . . . .Firefoot . . . . . . Holby . . . . . . Lalaith
Kath . . . . . . . . . . (None) . . . . . . Jenny . . . . . . .morm . . . . . . Glirdan

Lalaith . . . . . . . . . Form . . . . . . . Form . . . . . . . .Rune . . . . . .Gurthang
Firefoot . . . . . . . . Nilp . . . . . . . . Lalaith . . . . . . Durelin . . . . . . Rune
Gurthang . . . . . . .Diamond . . . . . morm . . . . . . . Holby . . . . . . . Rune

Taliesin . . . . . . . . Eomer . . . . . . Lhuna . . . . . . . Glirdan . . . . . .Saucey
Saucepan Man . . . Holby . . . . . . . Holby. . . . . . . .Holby . . . . . . . Rune
Anguirel . . . . . . . . Nilp . . . . . . . . Lhuna . . . . . . . Kath . . . . . . . Rune

Glirdan . . . . . . . . . Kath . . . . . . . Lhuna . . . . . . . morm . . . . . . Saucey
TGWBS . . . . . . . . Eomer . . . . . . (none) . . . . . . . morm . . . . . . Gurthang
Rune . . . . . . . . . . Eomer . . . . . . Holby . . . . . . . TGWBS . . . . . .Saucey

Sadly, I again have to leave. But now that I have constructed a table, you can all use it and maybe I'll get back and have the chance. Oh, and before you say it Lalaith, let me: "He's just trying to look helpful to throw off suspicion." 'Forgive me, but I have pretty much resigned myself to the gallows.'*

I think it's strange how all the pieces are falling into place and pointing straight at me. Although, as bad as this game has gone for me, it really shouldn't surprise me.


*Play on a PotC quote.

[The Saucepan Man]

Format as before.

1. Diamond -> SpM (SpM-1)
2. Ang -> Rune (SpM-1, Rune-1)
3. Caran -> Lalaith (SpM-1, Rune-1, Lalaith-1)
4. Durelin -> Rune (SpM-1, Rune-2, Lalaith-1)
5. SpM -> Rune (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1)
6. Kath -> Glirdan (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1)
7. TGWBS -> Gurthang (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-1)
8. Lalaith -> Gurthang (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
9. Rune -> SpM (SpM-2, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
10. Glirdan -> SpM (SpM-3, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
11. Firefoot -> Rune (SpM-3, Rune-4, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
12. Taliesin -> SpM (SpM-4, Rune-4, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
13. Gurthang -> Rune (SpM-4, Rune-5, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
14. Findesea -> Rune (SpM-4, Rune-6, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)

Two main bandwaggons - Rune and SpM.

I am pretty much convinced that at least one Wolf, quite possibly two, voted for Rune yesterDay, because I think it distinctly possible that Caran's speculation that Rune was put up as a sacrificial victim to make his fellow Wolves look good is spot on. If not, then his sacrifice certainly became pragmatic to them as the Day progressed. I am going to look at the way that suspicion built up around Rune as the Day progressed in a moment (it's important because one of the main reasons that Rune became such a prime lynching candidate was the spat with Gurthang over his vote for Eomer contrasted with his reasoning for being reluctant to vote for me), but for now I am just looking at the votes.

I have to acknowledge that my vote for Rune looks rather Wolfish, particularly as a great deal of suspicion was being thrown his way, and he already had 2 votes, at the time I voted. All I can say on this is that I am not a Wolf and my vote for Rune was not a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. It's up to you whether you believe that.

The other Rune voters who remain unknowns were Anguirel, Durelin, Firefoot and Gurthang. Much suspicion had been expressed of Rune already when all of these were cast, moreso the later ones. However, I think it likely that a Wolf would have been looking to put their vote for Rune in at a fairly decisive moment. To my mind, the votes of Firefoot and Gurthang look the most Wolfish. By the stage that they both voted, it was pretty clear that it was going to be between me and Rune, with Gurthang a possible contender at the time Firefoot voted. This only really helps me, but I know that my death would have proven me innocent. So, if Firefoot and/or Gurthang is a Wolf, they had the choice between being caught in the badwaggon of one who would be proven innocent (which would look bad) or sacrificing one of their own (which would look good). The Wolves could afford to lose one of their number. Perhaps two of them even thought Rune the Wolf Lover (although not if he had volunteered to be the sacrifical Wolf the Night before).

Indeed, if Gurthang was a Wolf, he found himself in the rather enviable (for a Wolf) position of being able to save me and take part of the credit for killing a Wolf. That would look doubly good if were to die at some point. And I rather agree with Lalaith that his self-serving post suggesting himself as a possible sacrifice to save me looks suspicious. Other than me, only the Wolves know that I am innocent and that this comment might therefore put him in a good light in the long-term. He has sought to explain it by saying that he was attracting more suspicion than me. YesterDay's voting (4 votes for me, 2 votes for Gurthang) hardly bears that out.

On balance, I think that two Wolves probably voted for Rune, and my tentative conclusion is that those Wolves were probably Gurthang and Firefoot, although I do not dismiss the possibility that Anguirel started the ball rolling with a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Durelin had been suspecting Rune from Day 3 (and voted for him on Day 3 too). So, unless there was a long term plan to sacrifice him (ie going back further than Night 4), she was being consistent. I also remain generally comfortable about Durelin for other the other reasons I have previously mentioned, so I am not too concerned about her vote.

The thing that troubles me about definately labelling Gurthang a Wolf is that, looking back at the way the case against Rune gathered during the Day, it is clear that he (or, more accurately, his spat with Rune) was the main force behind those suspicions. And the other two main instigators of them were Anguirel and Firefoot, my other two possible Rune-voting Wolves. If one or two of these three are Wolves, this would point towards the Rune sacrifice having been pre-arranged. But it gives me some cause for doubt.

On to some of the other votes.

Of those in the SpM bandwaggon, one was a Wolf, one was an innocent, one is a known non-Wolf and one, Glirdan, remains unknown. Glirdan's vote followed Rune's vote for me, although Glirdan had expressed strong suspicions of me from fairly early on in the Day. Nevertheless, I think it unlikely that there was more than one Wolf voting for me, so this somewaht eases my suspicions of Glirdan.

Rune's vote for me alas does not go very far towards clearing me, as it would benefit two Wolves to vote for each other in circumstances where the two of them were the main lynch candidates. With no double lynchings, one would die leaving the other in a position to take some of the credit.

Given how (to my mind at least) there seems to be much pointing towards Gurthang being a Wolf, the fact that TGWBS and Lalaith both voted for him gives me further cause to feel comfortable about the two of them. If Gurthang is a Wolf, and there was a plan (whether prearranged or ad hoc) to sacrifice Rune, it is highly unlikely that any Wolves would have cast a Wolf-on-Wolf vote for another of their number. Also, Rune had been attacking TGWBS fairly strongly on Day 3 and this also speaks in Guy's favour.

The other vote worthy of mention is Kath's vote for Glirdan. In my Day 1 analysis I noted that Glirdan's Day 1 vote for Kath made it unlikely that both were Wolves together. That is even more the case with Kath's vote here. Given that, as I recall, Glirdan was never a serious contender to be lycnhed yesterDay, this might be viewed as a safe vote. It was quite early, but Rune had already taken quite a lead in the lynching stakes.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

'Forgive me, but I have pretty much resigned myself to the gallows.'*

*Play on a PotC quote.

Didn't the pirate who spoke these words end up avoiding the gallows ...?

[The Saucepan Man]

For the sake of completeness. Here are my notes on the way that suspicion gathered around Rune yesterDay. Apologies for the lack of post numbers, but I am farily sure that it accurately (and chronologically) reflects the way things went.

The case against Rune really started when Gurthang picked him up on the contradiction between his being reluctant to vote for me just because I would be a dangerous Wolf and his Day 1 vote for Eomer. So, Gurthang was really the first to raise serious suspicion of Rune yesterDay.

Then Anguirel voiced some suspicion of Rune - although he was not Ang’s top suspect at that point. Kath and Durelin, then me, preceeded Rune in his poem/list.

I then noted that I was a little concerned over Rune due to the tenor of his first post of the Day.

Findesea was next to state Rune as a suspect, along with Gurthang and Lalaith.

Rune then identified Gurthang as a suspect for his picking him up on the "dangerous as Wolf" issue. He also suspected Anguirel (as he had on previous Days).

Firefoot noted Rune’s faulty reasoning on the “dangerous as Wolf” issue.

Anguirel weighed in with a comment about Rune’s defence being “extraordinary oratory” and put in the first vote for Rune (SpM-1, Rune-1).

Durelin then said that she thought Rune looked Wolfish (continuing her suspicions from the previous Day).

Caran included Rune as a possible suspect, although she mentioned him last after Kath and Lalaith.

Firefoot mentioned Rune as a particular focus of her intended investigations.

Gurthang categorised Rune’s reaction to his comment as “over the top” and indicated that Rune would be likely receive his vote.

Fin analysed Rune and concluded that he seemed to have been playing it safe and that he looked pretty suspicious.

Firefoot concurred with Fin.

Durelin voted for Rune (SpM-1, Rune-2, Lalaith-1).

SpM outlined strong suspicions of Rune (explaining the concern expressed earlier over Rune's first post of the Day) and gave him his third vote (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1).

Lalaith said that she was torn between voting Gurthang or Rune (but voted for Gurthang).

Rune voted for me as his best shot of surviving (SpM-2, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2). It occurred to me that a vote for Gurthang would surely have been a better option, unless he was bargaining on me ultimately receiving more votes (and he could predict Taliesin and Glirdan would probably vote for me). Nevertheless, it's possible that he was protecting Gurthang.

Gurthang said that, even if it was between him and SpM, he would probably still vote for Rune. This is the comment that Lalaith picked up on earlier toDay.

Firefoot voted for Rune (SpM-3, Rune-4, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2).

Gurthang voted for Rune, citing my likely innocence (SpM-4, Rune-5, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2).

Fin did likewise, although clearly cross-posting with Gurthang, also citing a belief in my innocence (SpM-4, Rune-6, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2).

The main point to come out of this I think is that, as I noted earlier, it was really Gurthang that started the suspicion of Rune. And many concerns had already been expressed about Rune (by Anguirel, me, Fin and Firefoot - in that order) by the time Anguirel cast the first vote for him.

This does rather speak in Gurthang's favour (and, less so, Ang's) unless there was a Wolfish plan hatched the previous Night to sacrifice Rune. But that scenario is a distinct possibility in my mind, given that Rune attracted the joint highest number of votes on Day 3.

[The Saucepan Man]

Sorry for jabbering on folks. Just a bit more and then I'll shut up. As I said, I want to get all this down now as I will be away for most of the rest of the Day.

I know Caran has already done an analysis of Rune's posts, but I had already largely prepared my own analysis, so I might as well offer it up for general consumption.

Day 1:

Unreasoned (second) vote for innocent Eomer.

Day 2:

Agrees with Formendacil that Eomer’s death was calculated to cause confusion. Expresses surprise at so many votes for Nilp. Was he perhaps directing us towards the Nilp voters (of whom Durelin, Ang and Firefoot remain unknown)? [#119]

Tempted to agree with Jenny re Jenny’s explanation of her vote for Holby.

Picks up on morm’s case against Ang - thinks one of them a Wolf. Cannot read Glirdan. Thinks Lhuna innocent (she was). Needs strong evidence to vote for a potentially helpful, but also potentially dangerous, SpM. Came to suspect Holby and Firefoot on the basis of SpM’s reasoning. TGWBS seems crooked (gut feeling). Won’t vote for Jenny. Likely to vote for TGWBS, Holby, Firefoot or, possibly, Glirdan. [#161]

Defends Jenny again, against Taliesin. [#179]

Finds that Firefoot has been helpful, so will not vote for her. That leaves Glirdan and Holby (TGWBS disappears from his suspect list, although he reappears on Day 3). Votes Holby because “she is capable fo more” (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-1). [#189]

Day 3:

Expresses surprise that Jenny was the Hunter, but not surprised that she chose Form as her target. Challenges Glirdan’s assertion that he’s a vocal player. No prime suspect. [#227]

Analyses TGWBS, Glirdan, morm/Ang, Holby and Firefoot (his Day 2 stated suspects). Finds TGWBS very suspicious - quiet and confusing - and likely to get his vote. Finds Glirdan slightly suspicious. Still thinks either Ang or morm is a Wolf. Still suspicious of Holby, but unlikely to vote for her. Little suspicion of Firefoot because of her helpfulness. Thinks those not mentioned innocent for now. [#234]

Votes for TGWBS on previous reasoning (SpM-1, TGWBS-1). [#239]

Day 4:

Early post which says little, but which smacked of Wolvery to me. [#302]

In response to Di’s entreaty, would consider voting for SpM, but would need strong evidence. [#310]

Sees Gurthang as suspicious for picking up on his “dangerous villagers” comment. Sticking with his suspicion of Ang on the basis that morm turned out innocent. [#326 and #329]

Votes for SpM, supposedly as his best shot of surviving (SpM-2, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2). [#355]

Summary

It looks to me like Rune may have been setting Anguirel up with his "theory" that either morm or Anguirel was a Wolf. This is a technique that an ancestor of mine used as a Wolf to lay suspicion on first one innocent and then (when he died) another. To my mind, that speaks in Ang's favour.

Most of those that Rune explicitly stated he thought innocent innocent or defended have turned out innocent (Lhuna and Jenny).

His main stated suspects were TGWBS, Holby and Firefoot, though he later stated that his supicions of Firefoot had eased.

He expressed mild suspicion of Glirdan, morm and Ang (and, on Day 4, Gurthang).

As far as I can see, he never mentioned Kath, Lalaith and Durelin.

[The Saucepan Man]

I should, perhaps, make clear that the analysis of Rune in my previous post was directed mainly towards what he had said about his fellow passengers, rather than being a comprehensive analysis of his posts.

There now follows an analysis of what others have said about Rune. It may not pick up everything as I was relying on the thread search function, and also rather tired at the time (as indeed I am fast bcoming at this very moment).

Day 1:

Anguirel notes Rune as an early suspect - although that arose mainly from banter. [#51, #57 and #71]

Day 2:

Glirdan’s analysis of the Eomer-voters is interesting (#132, #135, #136, #139, #140 and #143). He finds Rune slightly suspicious and places him fourth in the list after Taliesin, Diamond (I think he meant Diamond by Engels, since TGWBS is also included) and TGWBS (with Lhuna - whom he later voted for - fourth).

Lalaith picks up on Glirdan’s analysis of Rune (and Taliesin). [#160]

Durelin suspects Rune for his early (unreasoned) vote for Eomer. [#165]

Anguirel considers that Eomer’s death may have been intended to frame an Eomer-voter and thinks Rune the most likely victim of such a frame-up. [#181]

Firefoot, in a comprehensive analysis, categorises Rune as a blundering innocent and says he seems too unsure of everything to be a Wolf. [#183]

Glirdan seizes upon Durelin’s comment that Rune has posted little and says he finds that worrying as he considers Rune to be normally “a really vocal player”. [#193]

Glirdan subsequently mentions Rune, among others, before voting for Lhuna. [#196]

Day 3:

Glirdan backs down from his comment about Rune being vocal. [#237]

Gurthang thinks Rune makes some good points about TGWBS being unreadable. [#238]

In a comprehensive analysis, Lalaith expresses serious worries about Rune - for bandwaggoning against Eomer, bantering too much and picking on TGWBS as an easy target. [#249]

Ang not unduly worried about Rune (in the context of Holby-voters). [#252]

Rune tops Durelin’s suspect list (with also includes Holby and Anguirel, possibly Taliesin) [258]

Durelin votes for Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1). [#261]

In response to Taliesin, Glirdan explains his comments on the Eomer voters and Rune in particular - found him suspicious as an Eomer-voter, but less so than most other Eomer voters. [#264]

Of those with votes, Ang suspects Rune and Durelin - neither emphatically. [#268]

Lalaith votes for Rune in the absence of her other suspects as front-runners (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-2). [#277]

Kath notes Rune as a lynch candidate, but doesn’t really know what to think of him. [#286]

Findesea gave Rune his third vote - at the death, so to speak (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-3, Holby-3, morm-3, Kath-1).

For Day 4 - see analysis a few posts above.

Conclusions and thoughts about possible co-Wolves

Ang was to and fro about Rune from Day 1 through to Day 4, and even then Rune was not as high on his list as some others until the Gurthang spat. Possible Wolfish comrade.

Durelin was consistent in her suspicions of Rune from Day 2 on. Unlikely a fellow Wolf. But might be the innocent Lover, having been told of his Wolfishness.

Kath has hardly mentioned him. A definite possibility as a co-Wolf.

Lalaith was pretty firm in her suspicions of him on Day 3 and voted for him, putting him level with Durelin, Holby and morm on 2 votes, but did not vote for him on Day 4. Unlikely Wolvish comrade, but a possible innocent Lover.

Firefoot hardly mentioned him, noting him only as a blundering innocent, until the suspicion started to gather on Day 4. A possible Wolfish comrade.

Gurthang is in much the same boat as Firefoot with regard to Rune. His Day 3 vote could have been intended to save Rune and his Day 4 vote may well have been calculated to make him look good. A distinctly possible Wolfish comrade.

Glirdan mooted mild suspicions about Rune on Day 2, but didn’t really mention him much after that. Possible Wolfish comrade.

TGWBS has not mentioned Rune at all, but Rune was gunning for him on Day 3. The only credible possibility I see is that TGWBS is the Lover Wolf and Rune suspected him as such. Doubtful though.

[The Saucepan Man]

Right. I'm done. You will no doubt be glad that won't be hearing from me now until much later on (RL) tomorrow. I leave you with my own current thinking, based on all of the above.

Possible Wolves: Gurthang, Kath and Firefoot.
Could go either way: Anguirel and Glirdan
Tend to think innocent: Lalaith, TGWBS and Durelin
Innocents: Caran and Taliesin

Innocent Lover: Lalaith? Durelin? Taliesin?

The though of a Wolfish Anguirel and an innocent Lalaith as Lovers somehow amuses me greatly. But I haven't really had time to go back and try to look for possible Lover connections, so my thoughts on the innocent Lover are tentative in the extreme.

And (except, obviously, for the known non-Wolves) my thoughts on the possible Wolves and innocents are by no means cast in stone. I'll make my mind up when I get back tomorrow and see what others have had to say.

Cheerio!

[Durelin]

OK, perhaps not, but it does reinforce my warm, fuzzy feeling for Durelin (although I should perhaps make clear that love is not involved ).

Awww...and you had my hopes up...

Gurthang and Glirdan are looking the most suspicious right now, but that might change by RL tomorrow. Firefoot's up there, too. Kath is possible, but she's barely been around....which perhaps I should be more worried about, except that I feel for legitimate absences.

I haven't got anything more right now. Reading your analyses, Saucie, made me lose an ebay auction and I need to go and cry myself to sleep...

[Glirdan]

Okay, now I don't know what to think of Saucy. His analyses have eased my suspicions of him...somewhat. There's just something I don't trust about him. And those points Diamond brought up yesterDay...I really don't know what to think of him now...

Kath is also starting to worry me. She says very little and doesn't give any of her own input. She uses other peoples evidence for her reasonings without building on them.

Another person that's sligthly worrying me, and it's only because of a point that morm brought up on Day 2, is Ang. The death of Eomer is what really bugs me.

I'm still quite nervous of Taliesin and Caran, but only because it's possible one of them is the innocent Lover. I think we should go back and see if there's anyone either of them has protected constantly.

The rest don't seem overly odd. If anything, I'm inclined to believe that Gurthang and Durelin are probably innocent.

Idea just poped into my head! We all have that little nagging suspicion in us that either Taliesin or Caran could be the Wolf Lover (if you don't, then there might be something a little wrong with you). So, if we are to assume properly, the Wolves will be picking them off over the next two Nights. However, if one of them IS the Lover, one of the Wolves will be trying to persuade the others to keep away from that one. My suggestion is that if after the two Nights, one of them still lives, lynch him or her. That way, we get rid of the innocent who is not really innocent as well as getting rid of another Wolf.

However, just to ease my mind, I will still go back and analyse them.

[Glirdan]

Basically what I'm going to do is go over them quickly and see who they have defended constantly.

Taliesin: Quick Analysis

Day 1

All in character stuff. No defenses of anybody.

Day 2

Nothing here. Barely posted due to RL reasons I believe.

Day 3

Again, has barely posted and no defenses.

Day 4

And for the final time, no defenses. One thing I have noticed throughout all his posts, however, is he seems to be really consistent with his suspicions. I really don't see how he could be the Wolf Lover so he is officially cleared in my eyes.

I shall do my analysis of Caran later. For now, I must depart. I shall be back from my nap shortly.

[Firefoot]

I'm still quite nervous of Taliesin and Caran, but only because it's possible one of them is the innocent Lover. I think we should go back and see if there's anyone either of them has protected constantly.

Glirdan, I wouldn't worry about them. The wolves will pick them off, unless one of them is the innocent Lover and we pick off a non-Lover wolf toDay or tomorrow (toMorrow? ), in which case we would know that the one still around is the Lover because they wouldn't be dead (unless the wolves decided to bluff it, I guess). But right now there is no point in focusing our energies on them. In fact, your pointing them out for further checking is rather wolvish; "let's spend time looking at our innocents, then we won't find wolves..."

I really don't see how he could be the Wolf Lover so he is officially cleared in my eyes.

...What? Of course he's not the wolf lover. If he was that, he would have looked like a wolf to the seer.

Glirdan is becoming increasingly suspicious to me; I definitely want a further look at him...

A thought: now that we're getting down in numbers, using gender to find the Lovers might be useful; theoretically, one of Durelin, Kath, or Lalaith (or me, from the rest of your standpoints, I suppose) has to be guilty. Same goes for Glirdan, Sauce, Ang, Gurthang, and TGWBS (but there's more of you). And I would say that it's probable that not all the wolves were the same gender - seriously, there was about a 50-50 gender split; it would seem unlikely that all the wolves were male and only the innocent Lover was female (or vice-versa). Sheerly from a probability stand-point, I think it's likely that there are two guilty people from each list; one from each is a given. I'm not really sure how useful this will be from a strategic stand point, but there it is. Kath, I still don't really see as a wolf because of the no-voting thing, but maybe an innocent lover... so Durelin or Lalaith as a wolf? Both of these two have been suspicious to me in the past - maybe that's where I'll start when I pick up with this tomorrow morning. (I didn't get home until about an hour ago, and it's about time for me to sleep now. I'll have more thoughts/comments then; Glirdan just stood out to me.)

Oh, and for those of you who prefer my format (I know I have a hard time looking at the other sort):

Sauce – 4 (Diamond 1, Rune 9, Glirdan 10, Taliesin 12)
Rune – 5 (Ang 2, Durelin 4, Sauce 5, Firefoot 11, Gurthang 13, Findeasea 14)
Lalaith – 1 (Caran 3)
Glirdan – 1 (Kath 6)
Gurthang – 2 (TGWBS 7, Lalaith 8)

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Didn't the pirate who spoke these words end up avoiding the gallows ...?

Oh, gee, thanks. That brings hope to my heart.

Almost everything since I left has been Saucepan Man. I wish I had time to read it, because, glancing at bits of it, it looks pretty good. I think you're right about most of it. Well, except me.

As for my suspicions, Glirdan's little analysis of our known innocents is somewhat strange. Seems like he's trying to shift the focus off of finding the wolves.

[Caranlondien]

I have serious suspicions of Gurthang, but I don't want to vote for him just yet.

Firefoot is right about the gender ratio. Out of Durelin, Kath, Lalaith, and Firefoot, we probably have one or two wolves. I know that either the innocent lover or the wolf-lover is in there, because I know I'm not the lover. So I suggest concentrating our efforts on the females. So that's one evil person guaranteed, and chances are there's another one. I tend to eliminate Durelin from the suspect list, because she seems very un-suspicious. As for the other three, I'm just not sure... yet. I'll be back, after some reviewing.

[Caranlondien]

Day One

In-character stuff in her first post, then shows up saying she won't be voting.

Day Two

#163: Surprised by Eomer's death, since he had garnered so much suspicion; thinks the wolves must have thought he was the Seer. Suspicious of Jenny for "I-told-you-so" comment.

#182: Agrees with Holby's points about Jenny. Doesn't seem sure what to think about morm's attack on Ang (suggests it could be a set-up, or wolf-Ang trying to make it look like a set-up, decides morm is probably innocent, then adds that he does seem overly jumpy, though). Seems to take Lhuna's claim that Firefoot is the wolf-lover seriously, considers Lhuna might be the Seer, but decides it's improbable. Her suspect list comprises Jenny, Ang, and Firefoot. Polls the village (where's DancingSpawn? ) about our opinion on Lhuna's "claim".

#187: Consults the rules concerning the Seer and sees the Seer can't see the ordo-lover's lover status, but wonders if she can see the wolf-lover's lover status. (I just have to note that that may have been one of the most awkward sentences I've ever written...followed by this sentence, which used the dreaded "that that"... okay, [/grammer geekiness]... I should really go to sleep )

#191:

Ugh, well. I'm going to keep Lhuna on my suspect list because it was just such a weird thing to do.

This seems like rather an innocent statement to me.... I'm not sure why exactly, it just strikes me as ordo-ish.
Votes Jenny.

Day Three

#242: Thinks there isn't much point in looking over Jenny's posts because she was probably killed for gifted-hints and not for Seer-ish statements, but looks back over them anyway. Says since the wolves felt comfortable killing her, she probably wasn't close on any of her suspects. Finds herself agreeing with suspicion of tgwbs.

#243: Analyzes tgwbs, concludes he is unusually quiet - could be a wolf, could be an irritating ordo.

#286: Distressed that she has come back with 4 minutes left to find a tie. Won't vote Holby. Doesn't know about the other three.

#288: Votes morm to break tie, because he's the only candidate she's had any suspicion of all day. Seems genuinely anxious.

Day Four

#348: Says due to RL difficulties, this will be her only post. Doesn't like tgwbs's suggestion to have the three known non-wolves make lists of doom because they might be ordo-lovers. Comments on the morm-Ang "one is a wolf" theory, states that by the time he died, morm's suspicions had turned more to Glirdan than Ang. Says she won't vote SpM until she or a known innocent has analyzed him, as Diamond seemed already convinced of his wolvishness. Votes Glirdan. Plans to look more closely at SpM, Ang, and (if he's still alive) Glirdan the next Day.

Day Five

She hasn't appeared yet toDay.

----------------------------

I don't think she's a wolf. For one thing, there's her early no-vote. Then there's her vote for Jenny, who I'm sure by that point all the wolves had pegged as a gifted. She doesn't strike me as someone who'd be that bold as a wolf. My memory may be a bit fuzzy, but I seem to remember her being a very quiet wolf, flying under the radar, and not taking any chances. Granted, she's been quiet, she's flown under the radar somewhat, but she has been taking some pretty bold chances.

[Caranlondien]

Day One

Some in-character stuff first, then...

#50: Points out that Eomer, Fin, and tgwbs have yet to speak, and agrees with SpM that we ought not to vote for people before they've shown themselves. Thinks the voting records will be easier to read than usual, because with the Lovers around the Wolves will be more wary of wolf-on-wolf votes.

#52: Suggests SpM and Ang look up their biblical queries on Google.

#62: Corrects Nilp about how Eomer characterized his actions (he said unwolvish, not wolvish) but disagrees, thinks it's merely Nilp-ish.

#68: Uneasy about Form. Doesn't like the Eomer-bandwagon; doesn't want to vote for Nilp either. Looks like she's trying to get out of casting a deciding vote.

#72: Decides to vote for Form.

Day Two

#109: Thinks the wolves must have thought Eomer was the Seer. Wonders why they thought this.

#110: Corrects Fin about the Hunter-Ranger relationship.

#124: Doesn't think the wolves would be so silly as to allow a grudge to motivate their killing of Eomer. Thinks it was probably because they thought him Gifted or because they wanted to waste a Seer dream.

#126: Corrects Caran about Nilp's role (Ranger, not Hunter).

#160: Finds herself believing contradicting things as she reads different people's theories. Points out that who posts first is more determined by time zones than by wolfishness. Points out Eomer could have been mistaken for the Seer because he pegged someone as innocent. Thinks Glirdan has made some interesting points about Taliesin and Rune

#178: Says due to RL, she can't comment as much as she wants. Worried about Form and Taliesin. Votes Form.

Day Three

#226: Not surprised that Jenny was the Hunter, and doesn't blame her for suspecting Form, but notes she did begin to wonder about him after his total non-appearance the Day before. Says she'll be making a post of her thoughts on everyone. Says she prefers to use observations to draw conclusions, rather than trying to find a suspect who fits one's preconceived notion of what how a wolf will be acting, as she says Fin seems to be doing.

#230: Responds to Fin's response.

#231: Wishes Fin a happy birthday.

#249: Notes flurry of last-minute activity and much un-reasoned voting yesterDay. Gives thoughts on everyone so far. Chief concerns are Caran and Rune. Wants to hear more from morm about Jenny's list.

#255: Asks morm if he thinks that because Jenny removed Gurthang and Firefoot from her suspect list, they may have thought it safe to kill her.

#277: Votes Rune, bringing him up to a tie with the leaders, Holby and morm, both known innocents. A very risky move for a wolf, especially since Fin nearly got Rune lynched that Day - if she had voted a bit earlier, he would have died instead of morm. The question is, did the wolves plan this early to sacrifice Rune?

Day Four

#303: Notes the cross-posting of Kath's vote for morm, Gurthang's vote for Holby, and Fin's vote for Rune, which means that each voter thought they were casting the deciding vote in the three-way tie. Agrees with Firefoot that we don't have to worry too much about the Lovers. Still thinks morm was onto something about Jenny's list (I guess this implies she thinks Gurthang or Firefoot is guilty).

#304: Points out to Firefoot that wolves sometimes do skip out on voting. (However, Firefoot later points out that Lal's example is from the early days of WW.)

#325: Follows morm's instructions to look at the voting records from Jenny's list. Says Firefoot's lack of consistency in voting times strikes her as innocent. Nervous about Gurthang because he always votes just before the deadline and has cast two throw-away votes, plus one (as far as he knew decisive) vote for Holby. Notes that Rune always votes early - RL constraints or playing it safe? Points out that tgwbs votes in the "seemingly casual middle period" but each time his vote has put someone in the lead.

#330: Points out that any of the three known not-wolves could still be the lover.

#334: Reminds Durelin that Holby was outed as the Seer before she died.

#353: Torn between voting Rune and Gurthang.

#354: Votes Gurthang, but I doubt it's an attempt to save Rune. She almost got him lynched the Day before, and I still think his death was planned, so she wouldn't be trying to save him if she were a wolf.

Day Five

#371: Thinksj Guy is innocent. Suspicious of people who've made "mistakes" that make them look innocent (points out Durelin and Glirdan). Suspicious of Gurthang for weird reasoning about not voting to save himself over SpM. "This just smacks of a wolf trying to look like a good guy."

----------------------------

My overall impression of Lalaith is that she's innocent. A very tenuous theory might be that the wolves meant to sacrifice Rune the Day she voted for him, but failed to actually pull it off, and then decided to make her look really good by sacrificing him the next Day without her voting for him. Or maybe they didn't mean to sacrifice him, and the Day she voted for him, she didn't think anyone else would vote for him. But I kind of feel like I'm grasping at straws here.

I don't have the energy to analyze Firefoot (or Durelin, I guess I should analyze her too) right now. I'm getting tempted to forsake my gender-ratio plan and lynch Gurthang, because I found my suspicion of him increasing as I re-read the posts. In any case, I'll be back in some number of hours.

[Anguirel]

(This is the only post I'll be able to make today, and it'll be fairly short. I am marooned in London a day longer than I expected and have had to distract my father on a trip to get light-fitting and then hijack his laptop to get this far at all...)

Rune's death and guilt has the unhealthy effect of strengthening and confirming the suspicions (and prejudices, I suspect) I held yesterday. Being right is intellectually far more damaging than being wrong.

That said, I had a theory yesterday that Durelin might have performed a wolf for wolf vote. This now seems possible; yet how to explain her confusion over the Seer? That's sort of a cunning plan too far; it looks really genuine.

The other candidate for lynching last night was Sauce. It is not to my mind completely impossible that we had two wolves up for lynching last night; especially with the climate of dissension among the lupine ranks. Gurthang's role as executioner becomes prominent here. Did he suspect Rune of lovelorn treachery and so seal his fate? Is Sauce a lover-wolf who has just narrowly survived the velvet dagger of his erstwhile friends?

Caran makes a forceful case for Kath's innocence, but I still feel to some extent that her attitude is at odds with her frequently dodgy actions. Still, she has fallen on my suspicions list.

Finally...we should note that Diamond apparently attacked Sauce with honest intentions.

Hmmm.

Sauce – 4 (Diamond 1, Rune 9, Glirdan 10, Taliesin 12)
Rune – 5 (Ang 2, Durelin 4, Sauce 5, Firefoot 11, Gurthang 13, Findeasea 14)
Lalaith – 1 (Caran 3)
Glirdan – 1 (Kath 6)
Gurthang – 2 (TGWBS 7, Lalaith 8)

Very quickly-Glirdan is the only unknown who attacked Sauce-so I am now for the first time harbouring suspicions of him.

Firefoot-I forgot to consider her just now. Could be an alternative to Gurth as executioner. Sauce also.

Kath sits on the fence far too often. Maybe genuine indecision...

Gurthang votes-genuine minority suspicions or Love-derived knowledge from Engels or Lalaith?

I am going to vote because I don't believe in not doing so, but I fear this may be a shot in the dark.

++FIREFOOT

Don't know what I'd do without her vote summaries but she has gone too long unconsidered.

This is one of those rare, grim occasions when I don't have time for poetry.

[Firefoot]

Thoughts about Durelin:

Day 1 - Banter with/vote for Nilp and continued jesting about the goose would be an easy way for a wolf to hide. She is around, but doesn't contribute much.

Day 2 - Her comment about the throw-away vote for Nilp, I don't see as having much significance. It might be honest, might not. This comment:

Who said wolves can't be logical?

has never sat well with me for whatever reason. I'm not really getting anything from her musings about Jenny as hunter/not hunter. She votes for Holby without listing a reason; the only place she had previously mentioned her had been about a page ago:

I think Holbytlass is a good candidate for wolfishness because: 1. her posts are always somehow attempts to analyze. 2. her vote for Nilp to tie up the vote...yeah, I know, she knew she would be in the hotseat for that.

I'm not sure her reasoning is that great, but at least the vote wasn't out of the blue as I had supposed. Incidentally, her comment about Rune from the same post was:

And then there's Rune, an Eomer voter. He's posted just enough to stay involved, but not enough to draw attention to himself. His need for an early vote itself is not incriminating at all, and completely understandable, and it is also understandable that he make a rather random vote, but...why Eomer when he already had one vote? If you're gonna make a random vote why not at least make it a bit even or fair...

I could see this as either innocent or guilty.

Day 3 - She comes back with an explanation:

I voted for Holby because I was much more certain that Lhuna was innocent. Lhuna was Lhuna, and not wolfish Lhuna, in my opinion.

Fair enough, I suppose. In the same post she claims that she doubted Jenny had been the Hunter. Her suspects become Rune, Holby, Ang, and possibly Taliesin; she decided to leave Sauce off the list. She votes for Rune.

Day 4 -

Durelin - Just goes to show you how important communication is in any relationship...

This definitely just sent up warning bells in my head. Durelin's been dancing around Sauce for a while, he's always been just off her suspicion list... what if they're the lovers?

This comment of Durelin's is rather strange:

Okay, so I didn't read anything before the end of YesterDay yet.....

This definitely does not seem wolvish. What kind of wolf wouldn't know what was going on? And a little later:

For some reason, I keep forgetting that Holby revealed herself...

Same thing. Unless... someone paraphrased/told her what was going on and what needed to happen? Then she votes for Rune again

Day 5 - I didn't see anything particularly worthy of note.

Okay, going back to a Durelin/Sauce possibility. It could explain where Durelin was getting her Rune suspicions from - Sauce tipped her off? Wolvish compatriots wouldn't know the difference, and she would just look like an innocent with a lucky guess. I would need to go back and look at Sauce's posts (oh, boy) to see what he's said about Durelin before I made up my mind, though.

[Firefoot]

Sauce on Durelin:

Day 1 -

Durelin -- Shifty ninja-type. Can't understand a word she says. Lynch her, I say!

She's fourth on his lynch list.

Day 2 -

I am also wary of Diamond, Durelin and morm.

This after going into fair detail about Nilp voters... never once mentioning her. This could explain his repeated suspicions that either Holby or I was a wolf - let's just draw attention to these other Nilp voters...

Day 3 -

Durelin: Has acted completely how I would expect her to act (with the exception of a vote for me ; ) ). Can’t see anything suspicious about her.

Inclined to trust (for now): Glirdan, Durelin, Rune, mormegil, TGWBS, Findesea

Day 4 -

Durelin: I am pretty sure that she is innocent, of Wolvishness at least. She has been behaving erratically, which is precisely how I would expect an innocent Durelin to behave. I don’t think that her “eccentricity” would come across as quite so genuine if she were a Wolf trying to follow her usual pattern of behaviour.

Day 5 -

The other Rune voters who remain unknowns were Anguirel, Durelin, Firefoot and Gurthang.

But it's mine and Gurthang's that are most suspicious...

Durelin had been suspecting Rune from Day 3 (and voted for him on Day 3 too). So, unless there was a long term plan to sacrifice him (ie going back further than Night 4), she was being consistent. I also remain generally comfortable about Durelin for other the other reasons I have previously mentioned, so I am not too concerned about her vote.

Sauce:
The other two Holby-voters, Durelin and myself remain unknowns. It is, however, a well known fact that Wolves spread their votes, so it follows that the two of us are innocent. OK, perhaps not, but it does reinforce my warm, fuzzy feeling for Durelin (although I should perhaps make clear that love is not involved ).

Durelin:
Awww...and you had my hopes up...

!!!

Tend to think innocent: Lalaith, TGWBS and Durelin
...
Innocent Lover: Lalaith? Durelin? Taliesin?

I think that may have strengthened the case rather than broken it down. Sauce starts with suspicion on her, which slowly weakens until she is "probably innocent", and has even gone so far as joking with her about being the Lover.

I'll be away for a while now, but back in plenty of time to do more discussing...