Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Ugh. I don't like the choices on this lynch list. Not particularly suspicious of any of them.
Brinn would be my least worst choice but it sticks in the craw to have my vote dictated by a cobbler.
If I vote for Legate will I be throwing away my vote?

That appears to have been the effect of the vote, for sure. No one else has voted Brinn.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Legate is still really suspicious to me. I still can't follow his reasoning. Correct me if I'm wrong, but on the one hand he's angry with people for talking about KitRanger but on the other he's putting her quite high on his suspect lists.

Because, unlike other people, I never used the R-word and never will until anything is proven anywhere. And innocent villagers should know when to keep silent.
At the same time, Kit's remark could have been absolutely anything, ergo, that's how I am taking it. And I have been suspecting her (on the basis of her posting).
I think that should be fairly understandable.

[Boromir88]

Of those who currently have votes. I do not want to vote Lommy, Inzil or Huey.

I'm perturbed by Lhuna, quite a lot. Despite the bad feelings, I always worry about voting for someone and starting a bandwagon against someone unable to be here to "defend" xemself. Even though, based on Lhuna's own logic 1 vote a bandwagon does not make.

I'm probably giving too much consideration to the QT vote of Brinn. As others have said G55 wouldn't know Brinn's allegiance either way, so could just be an attempt to throw us off.

I've said nothing about Mac, because everyone else has said quite a lot. He looks the suspicious and paranoid part and then he doesn't. His vote for Lommy doesn't feel right, but could be from I just don't find Lommy suspicious.

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote

11 votes left (?)

~*~

Originally Posted by Shasta

The more I stare at that QT vote for Brinniel the more I want to test it. I think G55 is bluffing.

But what does she know? Why put any weight on Gal's guesses of who the wolves are, if they even are her guesses? I think she just wants to cause chaos by adding a controversial player to the mix. Which doesn't really say anything about Brinn.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

The more I stare at that QT vote for Brinniel the more I want to test it. I think G55 is bluffing.

I trust Brinn not at all, but G55 knows nothing about her, all the same. Just something to keep in mind.

x/d with Legate, Boro, and Lommy

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm probably giving too much consideration to the QT vote of Brinn. As others have said G55 wouldn't know Brinn's allegiance either way, so could just be an attempt to throw us off.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I trust Brinn not at all, but G55 knows nothing about her, all the same. Just something to keep in mind.

Public service announcement (bolding added):

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Second: the QT vote. Absolutely what I would expect from a Cobbler vote, but even, possibly, could be something they agreed on. I personally feel nothing wrong with pursuing Brinnwagon further, regardless whether it's been "blessed" by the Cobbler or not. It will only leave us to wonder. And let's keep in our heads the mantra: the Cobbler doesn't know anyone's roles, the Cobbler doesn't know anyone's roles, the Cobbler doesn't know anyone's roles. This is literally a vote to mess with our heads (even if it may have something else in, too - but it has this, for sure).

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

That appears to have been the effect of the vote, for sure. No one else has voted Brinn.

Problem I'm having is not just the QT vote, but after Brinn's initial comments about Rikae's death pointing to her, she's moved on to other people. Mac's been more insistent on the Rikae kill framing him.

[Thinlómien]

The more people vote in the last 15min, the more chaotic this will be. Wolves may have a reason to hold onto their votes in case they need to save packmates, but innocents could do something to alleviate the upcoming chaos a little? Plus, if anyone wants to add a new name to the mix, it's now or never.

[Kitanna]

Here's some rushed thoughts onHuinesoron
YesterDay, he came down hard on Lommy, initially for what looked to me like a normal "woe onto Day 1 and chaos" post. But he kept on it.
At the same time he threw light suspicion at LGP and also really pushed for "why is Mac so suspicious? And he kept pushing it, though Mac didn't ever appear to be a contender to be lynched. Then when Brinn fell under scrutiny he did the same sort of thing. Ultimately voting G55

Originally Posted by Huen

I will - probably in about 15 minutes - vote for Pitch (preferably) or G55 (if necessary), because I'm suspicious of both and don't trust the Brinn-wagon.

I think that's because my wolf-lean was initially based on her as part of a Pitch-G55 pack, which doesn't make much sense for a Cobbler.

Is how he starts the Day. Which, why not have a cobbler in that group? I think it makes sense for a cobbler to propose such an idea, then back away. In the same way I could believe it of a wolf.
And is back on his Lommy lynch train. Still not seeing why, then again, I haven't dug in on Lommy too much. Still it seems weird how he always keeps her there, ready to lynch, but then goes a different direction.

Timeline check: cross-posted with me (6 minutes earlier), or written after seeing it?

I feel he wants to get credit for saying "let's back off, Kit, shall we?" When it wasn't really necessary to establish a timeline for that. I revealed myself when enough people brought up my fake reveal reaction and I said I was done engaging on the subject. From a village standpoint, yeah, let it go, because innocents commenting on it are just digging themselves into a hole for wolves to hide in. But it alarms me Huin went out of his way to establish who said it first.
After a Day of demanding why people saw Mac as suspicious, and in my frantic refreshing to stay onto of new posts I see he's voted Mac.

I think that raises him from 'moderate' to 'probable' wolf in my estimation. Sadly for Mac, with both of them having a vote, it doesn't make me think he himself is less suspicious - accusing your packmate right before one of you gets lynched sounds like a great way to alleviate suspicion of them.

Originally Posted by Mac

Rereading Huin’s post while I’m looking over posts raises my blood pressure.

Yes! This! A million times! If I could use profanities here, I would.

So final thoughts on the Day.
Eonwe I didn't like his vote yesterDay and nothing he's said since makes me feel any better about him.
Mac I feel lynching Mac or Brinn would be very telling, but I don't want to "kill the patient for the autopsy" or however Mac put it.
Huin I feel if Huin is a wolf, then look deeper into Lommy. He has been harping on her since the start, but doesn't act on it. He spoke a lot, but I don't feel he always said anything, which is funny because he leveled that same statement at others yesterDay. He demands reasons for Mac and Brinn being so suspicious, but I don't feel like he really looked at people's reasons of why in the first place. He just saw these names that were gaining just enough traction and pounced. Like if they were lynched and turned out innocent he would look good. But then today he votes Mac. Erm...ok? Which at the beginning of the day, after reviewing Day 1, I'd have voted Mac too, but now? I feel like there's more to go on elsewhere.
And then the "leave Kit alone" timeline Huin tries to establish worries me.

++Huinesoron

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2

10 votes left

[Loslote]

Left to vote:

Me
Pitchwife
Zil
Boro
Lalaith
Brinniel
Eönwë
THE Ka
Sally
Shasta

We are really coming down to the wire here. I'm leaning towards voting Huinesoron.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Well, if Mac is a wolf, he clearly started the Day with the mindset that he's a lost cause because Rikae's death points to him anyway so perhaps he could then at least do his packmates a service by trying to attract as much attention as possible? I still don't understand why macwolf would be this paranoid/suicidal, but I see even less reason for ordomac to act this way.

That is a possibility, that Mac has weighed the chances of survival and rehearsed his actions with compatriots. Rikae's death also points to who they were most suspicious of as well near the end of Day 1. Would they want to be as associated to Mac though knowing this?
Besides Mac, Brinn was another who toDay put out that due to Rikae's removal overNight and their vote, that it was a frame to sway players to think that Brinn was a wolf who needed to be saved by removing Rikae's further suspicion. I'm not inclined to think the wolves wouldn't think that far ahead themselves.

...

I've gone back and looked a little bit more at who was focusing on Mac's statements and posts about himself.

Originally Posted by Greenie, Post #346

Second, even if the wolves would kill just to frame somebody, he ignores the possibility that this might implicate someone other than himself. This is very close to how Brinn, too, is convinced that the kill was engineered just to frame her.
[…]Conclusions? I’d be very surprised if both Mac and Brinn are innocent. But I also have a hard time seeing them as fellow wolves.

'he ignores the possibility that this might implicate someone other than himself'.
Which might just be the point. Pushing a Macwagon sounds like a safe vote for the wolves, whether he is one of their number or no. Which makes me wonder if the wolves are stumped on other players like Pitch or Kit?

Originally Posted by Hui, Post #417

And yes, there are more details, but with the amount of words that have been thrown around you can build some kind of case against everyone. The fact remains that his case against Greenie relies heavily on 'this is exactly how I’d expect a Green wolf to act'.

Mac mentions in #331 that he 'got some fire late yesterDay from Greenie' and believes Green would push for a vote for him toDay.

Greenie in #341 has no overt criticism of Mac's claims or comment. Mostly plays along in quotes.

Brinn in #343 summarizes Mac's #111 post, states he starts to suspect Brinn. Doesn't agree that Rikae killed off was to explicitly frame Mac.

...

Maybe I'm hung up on details and still suspicious from the Day before, but I find it rather interesting that Brinn brings up what is obvious about the Rikae framing for her, then simmers down on it to weigh in on Mac's suspicious framing stories. Speaks of possibly nudging a fellow to lay off one story and go focus on another to drive a bandwagon for innocents who are at a loss with their vote.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Unless they were counting on that if one of them got lynched, this would give the other a free pass?

I could see it, an obvious play that's too obvious to be believed, so is an excellent cover... but I'm wondering why it's being pointed out.

Originally Posted by Legate to Mac, Post #348

Seems to me her attitude was simple to create possible discussions in which Wolves could jump at people or innocents could misjudge people or whatever. Even if G55 wasn't sure whether Rikae was innocent or not, she could simply trust the WWs to sort it out.

As for her mentioning you - it may be nothing more and nothing less than wanting to drag more people into the debate: either you, because you already "showed interest", or to alert others that they should participate as well. Framing or not framing you she would leave for you to sort out - if you were a Wolf, you'd probably make sure you didn't get too muddled in this (which you didn't), if you weren't, then good riddance.

'would leave for you to sort out' and the reasons given are extremely insightful. Does it make me slightly suspicious of Legate? Yes.
I also know him to deliberate this way, so it appears as safe and not unusual.

Originally Posted by Post #455 (Legate)

Mac - I have absolutely zero idea whether he had just gone crazy-obsessed with himself or what. I would not vote him based on that, but I need to re-check all his posts again, if it's possible.

Reasonably cannot fault Legate on this deduction, since this was one of my own first suspicions about Mac.

Originally Posted by Kit

Mac seems to be working overtime to get the "they thought Rikae was the seer and wanted to frame me" off the ground. I do not like it. It's possible to say the wolves looked for someone to frame up and that's why Rikae was chosen, but I think the more likely explanation is they thought in light of G55 dying a cobbler, Rikae would potentially be assumed innocent.

Yes, along with some additional help it seems from Brinn and slightly from Loslote.

Originally Posted by Loslote, Post #401

I am very concerned by Mac's response to the Night kill. It feels to me like he was very prepared to insist that it was a frame job, not a Macwolf killing a possible Seer, almost like he knew it was coming and had a whole Night to work up the paranoia. He is definitely high on my suspect list.

The tone in this is a bit polished. Of course we all want to get our ideas across correctly, but a bit of distance from subject and lack of contractions. Lottie has answered questions directly and in a timely manner so it's a mix up between these rather polished responses and then more familiar ones. It's giving me some suspicion this isn't just a tactic to skirt the radar.

Originally Posted by Loslote, #294

Greenie mentioned yesterDay that Mac's analysis post of Brinn reads like someone talking themselves into suspecting someone else, which most often happens when a wolf is looking for a reason to suspect an innocent. So I definitely don't trust him at this point.

Originally Posted by Loslote, #432

My inclination would be to vote Zil, but I like this argument for learning more about Brinn's role by voting Mac. I could go either way.

This sounds like changing one's words to something softer to placate, test the waters, and quietly push a notion across the table. It's rather safe and much too consistent.

++Loslote

As I've ruminated in earlier posts and this one, I wanted to take a hard look at those mentioning Mac's behaviour, perhaps not committed, but throwing it out there enough times to spark more interest and make other players focus in on it. When it comes to wagons over the 'Rikae-framing ploy of wolves', you could just as easily push Brinn since they mentioned the same sentiment. Though, I start to see that the Brinn framing wagon is backed away from as if wolves were shaking two rattles in our faces and seeing which one we prefer and Brinn wasn't drawing as much eyes as Mac since she stopped giving as much a performance.

I'm not voting for Mac, because it's too obvious and appears as if to me at least, he's being subtly coached to take a fall. If he's a wolf doing it as others have mentioned, then it's because it's likely over a consensus with fellow pack mates and scripted. If he's innocent, then pretty much the same for the wolves as he's a convenient 'suspicion' from Rikae the previous Day that they know player's would have itching in the back of their minds. I'm not interested in being corralled into a bandwagon, even by the fairest words.
In short, I'm sticking to my earlier questions on identifying who is pushing for Mac, consistently, subtly at times, and buried here and there. I just don't see a lot of information to be revealed about others from just picking Mac, as he is his most and loudest trumpeter.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Left to vote:

Me
Pitchwife
Zil
Boro
Urwen
Lalaith
Brinniel
Eönwë
THE Ka
Sally
Shasta

Minus Urwen, who has left the game!

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2

9 votes left

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote

11 votes left (?)

~*~

But what does she know? Why put any weight on Gal's guesses of who the wolves are, if they even are her guesses? I think she just wants to cause chaos by adding a controversial player to the mix. Which doesn't really say anything about Brinn.

Sure. Apropos of anything else, I just feel like G55 voted Brinn in hopes that no one else would, and I perversely want to test that because I am a contrarian and a gambler. Whether I think Brinn is a decent QT (I do) and whether G55 does (who knows/cares?) is entirely independent of that.

[Pitchwife]

You know what, let's.

++Huinesoron

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

We are really coming down to the wire here. I'm leaning towards voting Huinesoron.

As one wise, kind, charming old man from another universum once said: "Dew it!"

EDIT: x-ed with many

[satansaloser2005]

Lottie or Mac. Lottie or Mac.

Voting in a couple. Still on the phone, but trying to make up my mind.

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3 (Mac still on the lead)

8 votes left

~*~

This Huinewagon is staring to look interesting, just saying, regardless of his role...

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

As one wise, kind, charming old man from another universum once said: "Dew it!"

Yeah, okay.

++Huinesoron

[Inziladun]

I'd still prefer Brinn, Mac, or Lottie, but it may be academic.

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4

7 votes left

[satansaloser2005]

Better odds right now on him.

++Mac

Sorry, love.

[Loslote]

These close deadlines are wild.

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4 (Hui still in the lead)

6 votes left

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Loslote

These close deadlines are wild.

I am franticly refreshing the site.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So we're all aware, I'm aware that G55 is uninformed. The whole point of the Cobbler role is to aid the wolves, though, and to do that, you have to take a stab at finding them - the Cobbler is going to be doing the same exercises in deduction we are, just for opposite reasons.

It's an interesting situation. G55 obviously doesn't know for sure who the wolves are, but she can think she does. And you're right, that doesn't actually matter. But I just have a feeling G55's using the QT vote on Brinn is designed to make us not vote there, and because she's evil, I want to do the opposite.

I'm not saying I will, I'm saying I want to (and I might.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

That being said, I am surprised at the sudden turnout about Lottie, but I am having positive feelings about it too. The question being, nothing of this matters until the fat lady sings, right? (Seriously why does my brain keep coming up with this kind of phrases at this hour?)

Aside from those whose names are flying about this Evening, I suggest keeping eye on Greenie.

[Inziladun]

Because I distrust Lottie, and to a lesser extent, Pitch:

++Mac

[Brinniel]

Gah, I really wanted to vote Inzil toDay but I think I would rather see Hui lynched over Mac.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by THE Ka #532

The tone in this is a bit polished. Of course we all want to get our ideas across correctly, but a bit of distance from subject and lack of contractions.

You mean you suspect people because they don't sound like Data?
This is quite fascinating, Captain.

[Eönwë]

Ok, since my last post, Mac is looking better to me, and I've never thought that Lottie has seemed wolfish (but I will try to reread toMorrow if I'm still around).

I'm still open to a Brinn vote and am open to a Huey vote, but the former is seeming less and less likely.

edit: x-ed since Lottie's #544

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well now it hardly matters, anyway - the choice is Hui or Mac. So now I'm gonna stare at who's voting who for a moment.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You mean you suspect people because they don't sound like Data?
This is quite fascinating, Captain.

Yeah, never thought I'd get a vote because I said "He is" instead of "He's"

[satansaloser2005]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4
Dun -> Mac 5

[Lalaith]

[RL] Sorry my mother just rang![/RL]
Ok I don't like this.
But because I trust Kit.
++Huinesoron

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

I am franticly refreshing the site.

Ditto, also 6 vots to go means anyone could still get lynched!

~*~

Ok 5:

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4
Inzil -> Macalaure 5
Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5 (Mac in lead)

4 votes


edit: xed with Lalaith and added her vote

[Brinniel]

Let's see what happens..

++Huinesoron

X-ed since #553

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Well now it hardly matters, anyway - the choice is Hui or Mac. So now I'm gonna stare at who's voting who for a moment.

That's what I was trying to figure out. Knowing Brinn wouldn't vote for herself.

++Mac

Edit: crossed with Brinn's vote and crossed with all those other votes that ended in a tie at the moment. Wow

[satansaloser2005]

This is intense!