WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Nienna]

This seer-death of Greenie does not look good for Nog. I think he bears a much closer look today.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Greenie was the Seer?!

I must have spent an hour earlier today putting all my points against her into one big case, and see where it gets me.

Before I go look back at her posts (again) myself, I would like to make one point that has nothing to do with Greenie:

Even though Glirdan turned out to be a wolf, he was still pretty easily the choice for lynch the entire day, making him the "easy lynch", so I really don't like Nog's insistence that multiple people were "voting the easy lynches" when he himself voted for Glirdan. Really don't.

Now, off to look at Greenie's posts in a different light.

[Loslote]

Removed smilies.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

*falls from horse*

Did the rules say we have to play mad instead of just having a WW game in a mad setting? Seriously, this is one of the oddest Day 1 beginnings I have ever seen. I dislike the votes so far, though that isn't to say anything on whether they are necessarily signs of wolvery or not.

My contribution toDay will be pretty much horrible - this is the worst possible day for me to be playing Werewolf - but I promise to be much more active in the Days to come! I've got to dash, but I'll return later. Try to be sensible, meanwhile. (It's easy for me to say, of course, given that I won't be around for most of toDay.. )

Complains a bit (understandably) about the insanity so far.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

*falls from horse*
Back again! I'm feeling slightly hyper right now, so don't be annoyed if I'm not making much sense.. But here come some impressions of toDay.
I don't see Winty's vote as suspicious - nor innocent-looking, for that matter - it just is. Meaning that s/he (which is it, by the way?) could have done that just as well as a wolf as an innocent, and thus drawing conclusions on that seems weird to me. But then, everything here is weird.

Agan is lovely and provides a lot of substance (I'd raise my hat if I had one, unfortunately I only wear a helmet), I don't suspect her - but then, I always suspect her when she's innocent, so maybe she's a wolf now. Gah, I'm flip-flopping. Family vice. Sorry.

Lottie's analysis post was interesting, but I found the "gut feeling"-thing slightly eyebrow-raising. The so-called gut feelings were mostly reasoned points, so why call them gut feelings? It just struck me that calling a point a mere gut feeling kind of lessens the responsibility over it - one can, later, claim it was just a gut feeling, not my fault that we lynched an innocent, whoops.

Lommy is acting purposefully mysterious which strikes me as weird - she's having this manner of "I know something you others don't, let's see if I care to share it!" I don't quite know what to make of it, it's not usual her but then I'm not sure if it's necessarily suspicious either.

Okay, enough ranting, I don't remember if I had something to say about someone else still, so I'll let Lommy post and go to sleep and then do the same myself. Back soon babes!

Gives her impressions on people. If her Night 1 dream is among them, I'd guess it was Agan...but I don't think she mentioned her dream here.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Eurgh. Sorry. My concentration is poor today.

I know this reasoning is outrageously bad, but I'll tell it anyway because it's what I'm thinking: I'm kind of afraid that Lottie will become this typical Day 1 easy lynch (ordo), but then again, she's the only one I have any valid point at all, so

[*highlight]++ Lottie[/highlight*]


EDIT: eek x-ed since Boro

Votes me...and I think we can assume this means she dreamt an innocent first Night.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Phew. Here at last, been running all day and now it's getting late again. I so wish the Day and Night phases were the other way round... So if I seem to be over-reacting (I fear I am) it's because I'm tired. This will be a mostly self-defensive post. The next one will include something rather more relevant to the game, I hope.
Seriously, I know being annoyed won't exactly help a thing, but I can't but be a tad annoyed. What, exactly, are your reasons for suspecting me? I suspected you yesterDay and happened to get the internet after Lommy (we're using the same one) so I voted you only after some others had done that already. That, I suppose, made my vote bandwaggonish. I had a reason to suspect you, I didn't have reason to suspect anyone else, so I voted you. Simple as that. And I think I had voiced my suspicion of you before the bandwagon against you had even started, so you can't claim my vote was just jumping on the bandwagon. As for the apologetic tone of my vote post, I was being honest. It did pop into my mind that I might be pursuing what would turn out a typical Day 1 easy lynch. I made the mistake of saying it aloud – if I had just played more confident than I was no one would have made such a fuss about my vote. Give me better arguments, please.
Not quite! Outrageously bad phrasing, more like. The outrageously bad had to do with that I was kind of worried about a typical easy Day 1 lynch, but still wanted to vote for Lottie who I suspected. My reasons for voting Lottie, while not all that great, were still substantial by Day 1 standards.

EDIT: eurgh x-ed with a horse (hehe what a typo, was supposed to write 'horde' )

Defends herself; doesn't say anything that could be taken as a dream.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Yeah. I was referring to the reasoning that I'm afraid of a typical Day 1 easy lynch but still vote for you. My actual reasoning for suspecting you wasn't outrageously bad. If I still can't make this understood, I suppose I must blame being a non-native speaker for not being able to explain myself.
You did miss something. It was that she called every point she had a gut-feeling, also those that were actual reasoned points and not gut-feelings - which struck me as horribly fishy. But really, discussing this is not fruitful as far as I can see.

Now to write some actual substance. I'm sick of talking about myself.

Defends herself again.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Okay, but why were you pretty confident about her?
Yes, I think we can rather safely assume that Lottie has the village's best interests at heart. But she is not the seer. She doesn't know anybody's role and can be as wrong as any of us.

Eurgh I had some other quotes I wanted to comment on but it seems I've lost them. Off to write a list and then vote. I'll probably be suspected for voting out of the blue this time () because I don't have much of an idea until I've looked at the list of villagers and considered each one in turn.

EDIT: x-ed with Glirdy and Lottie

But she is not the seer...okay, in hindsight, lol. XD Anyway...she responds to Nienna, but I don't think she knew what Nienna's role was at the time.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Ok, great. Really, I'm sorry if I've sounded cross, I'm just very very tired and it's very very late and I've been up since rather early morning.

Responding to me; not much seer-ness there.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Glirdan – Hmm. I have no read on him myself, others have brought up good points against him, though, but I'd have to investigate myself to form an opinion.

Nogrod – Usually, at this point of the game, I'm convinced he's a wolf. This far I guess he's never been one when we've played together. So now I'm wondering if I should get worried as I've found no reason to suspect him...

Wintywinty – Too little to go on with.

Isabellkya – From what I remember of her she's been making sense and passing unnoticed. I have no reason to suspect her, but she alarms me a little because of being so smooth and sensible.

Mira – Feels innocent though I disagree with her a lot.

Sally – Her behaviour yesterDay around the voting, concerning Lottie, was weird. Other than that, she's been the usual hard-to-read Sally.

Agan – Seems genuine and makes a lot of sense. I'm not saying she's innocent - I know how capable she is of fooling me - but I won't be voting her without a good reason.

Inzil – No effing idea.

Shasta – The reasoning for his vote was rather bad, could be even wolvish - I was a little (green) suspected at that point I think but not much, so voting for me would have been rather ideal: not rubbing people the wrong way, yet not bandwaggoning either. Otherwise he has flown under my radar.

Lottie – I believe her claim though I disagree with her about almost everything.

Nerwen – No idea.

Legate – Seems innocentish this far.

Morsul – No idea.

Nienna – Hmm. Not sure. At times she feels very genuine, at others she feels like a sneaky wolf. Can't say which she is.

Skip – Seems maybe the most innocentish at this point (discounting Lottie and myself, of course), makes sense and feels genuine.

Lommy – Has dropped the mysterious attitude and feels more or less like her innocent self.

Brinniel – I'm leaning towards thinking her innocent. Her reactions seem genuine to me.


EDIT: x-ed since my last

List! Here we go (dream-wise). She says Skip "seems maybe the most innocentish at this point". This makes me inclined to think that she might have dreamed him...but not for sure. It also looks likely that she dreamt innocent!Agan - "I won't be voting her without a good reason." She also could have dreamed innocent!Mira, innocent!Lommy, innocent!Brinn, or innocent!Legate. She says they all seem innocent at this point, and I'm pretty sure she'd dreamed of innocent people.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I sincerely hope that you will not succeed in your attempt. Talking about getting people lynched, I'd be interested to know who people are going to vote. I want to go to bed as soon as possible, but I'd like to hear some more opinions before voting..

EDIT: x-ed with Noggy, Winty & Glirdy

Asks for ideas of who people are going to vote.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Eurgh. I'm starting to see why Glirdy is suspected. I didn't like that long post of his at all. Or, it was long, but it included mainly suspicion on one of the village's top suspects and confirming innocent a person everyone's been considering innocent pretty much all Day. He could be an innocent who just suspects the same person as everyone else, but I didn't like the tone of that post.

She says she's beginning to suspect Glirdy. Now, this may be wishful thinking, but I don't think she'd dreamt him at this point.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Right. I'm too tired to look up your vote post so correct me if I'm straying, but I believe you voted me because my vote seemed bandwaggonish. I think I've said enough about that vote already. What struck me as fishy about your vote was not only that it seemed ideally placed for a wolf, but also that voting someone for a bandwaggonish vote is about as easy a reason for a vote one can come up with, one that is seldom questioned though rather flimsy.

I was about to vote for you, but your latest post made me wonder if I should after all, it seemed somewhat genuine and sensible.


EDIT: x-ed with Shasta and Sally

Hmm. Says she supects Shasta but that the last post seemed innocent. I doubt if she'd dreamt him yet.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

My usual bed time was approximately four hours ago.

[*highlight]++ Shasta[/highlight*]

I'll explain more fully toMorrow, if required. Good night.

Votes Shasta with a promise for further explanation later.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

First, some comments on toDay. I'm not sure how much weight we can give to Sally's last words about Glirdy being a wolf. To me, at least, she seemed rather more like a wolf who knows she's going to die trying to make a mess before she goes. Looked at in that way, I don't think we should jump into conclusions based on anything she said - regardless of whether they are conclusions for or against Glirdy's guilt.

I think you are a bit off in this argument. At least as far as my werewolf-experience goes, few wolves actually put all their fellows in the "no opinion" -category - or any same category, for that matter. A wolf is almost always a tad paranoid, and wold prefer to avoid cramming all his fellows under the same heading just so as not to make all their names appear together. Besides, a bit of wolf-on-wolf suspicion - or even open wolf-on-wolf fraternizing - is actually safer for a wolf than just carefully not saying anything about one's fellows. And, in addition to that, I've never seen an Aganwolf not pulling off any kind of wolf-on-wolf thing.

Moving on to yesterDay next... (I also have a gigantic - well, sort of - post coming, I checked people's attitudes to Sally from the two previous Days!)

Doesn't think we can give much weight to Sally's Glirdy lynch drive, so probably didn't dream him. Also doesn't suspect Agan...I think maybe she did dream of Agan; she's been very solid in her support.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I thought I had already given one, and meant that if elaboration on it was required I would do that later. Basically, I voted for you because your vote from Day 1 looked strategically clean (voting for someone that has been somewhat suspected but hasn't gained any votes that far - not causing discord or attracting attention nor yet getting accused of bandwaggoning).
I'm sorry, I think I missed something. Could you explain what you mean by this?
That, I think, is a very dangerous path to take (wow, doesn't that sound epic!) because knowing that Lottie has our best interests at heart isn't saying anything about how accurate her suspicions are. Throughout WW history there have been innocents who bark at the wrong tree for an entire game though they have the village's best interests at heart.
I don't like this one, either. A wolf can very well make great contributions - a Nerwolf certainly can - and off-handedly dismissing the possibility makes it seem like you are grasping at straws to suspect whoever it was who talked about the great contributions. (I've lost the spot where I found this quote, should check that, probably...)

Now, off to write my Sally-post..

Elaborated on her Shasta-vote, but doesn't come down too hard on him, so she probably didn't dream him. Also doesn't like Zil's reasoning.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Explain myself about what? I'm confused. The quotes from yesterDay I picked during the Night phase when I was reading what happened after I went to sleep, I saved them on a Word file and of course wasn't bright enough to note who Inzil responded to.

Not much there.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Okay, here comes my massive Sally-post - being a quick analysis on people's reactions to Sally. This post doesn't include everything that has been said about Sally (no banter posts & no posts that give no actual information).

Nogrod

Carefully voices some suspicion on her yet flip-flops nicely. The three dots in the end creep me out, like the ”I never get her” in the beginning. He's kind of – how to say it – decisively undecisive. Looks rather wolf-on-wolf, though could be genuine.

Could go either way, really.


I don't like the look of this. Looks like an opportunistic wolf-on-wolf vote.

Nienna
Sally - I can usually read her pretty well and I'm not getting alarm bells yet... but we shall see (Nienna)
I'm not all that fond of the ”we shall see” in the end – it looks like trying not to look too positive about a fellow's innocence.


Makes me feel a bit better about Nienna. If I recall correctly, this was in a post of its own – and though not unheard of, bringing up a new point against a fellow in a one-liner post doesn't strike me as wolf-on-wolf suspicion.


I could see a Niennawolf behind this post, accusing Morsul after that first paragraph that could be interpreted as herself doing the exact same thing she blames Morsul of. But then again, I agree with her about Morsul and her tone still strikes me as genuine. (A sidenote: if Nienna and Morsul are fellows I'm going to eat my hat.)


Still innocentish tone.

Glirdan
Gah. The ”...yet” in the end looks again like trying not to sound too positive about a fellow's innocence.


Could well be a wolf turning against a fellow: he seems rather ready to jump on Sally after it's become clear that she's the clear main suspect of the Day. Could also be an innocent Glirdan trying to save his own skin by making a show of suspecting Sally – regardless of whether he actually did or not.
The same as the previous one, but to a greater extent.

Still looks like he's decided to suspect her. Could be wolf-on-wolf, could be desperate innocent-on-wolf.

Aganzir
A sensible point, could well have been by an innocent Agan, but the phrasing of the underlined part struck me as slightly fishy – it's too careful (maybe, a bit), not much like Agan's usual provocative style.


This, in turn, looks okay.

Could well be a wolf assuring that the death of a fellow would be okay while not enforcing the suspicion on her.

This strikes me as genuine innocent reasoning, though. Agan is driving me mad.

Legate
A long rant the point of which was mainly that he'll be keeping an eye on her. Makes me think a wolvish Leggy wouldn't have ranted such lengths about a fellow.

I don't like the ”But whatever...” in the end – looks like he's suspecting Sally and then dismissing it.
Could go either way, really.
This doesn't strike me as wolf-on-wolf reasoning at all.
Could be a furry Legate deciding that Sally is a lost case anyway. I'm leaning innocent on this quote, too, though. The tone is more like an innocent Legate deciding to ”see how things go”.

Lommy
This seems genuine enough.

Eurgh, could go either way – I'm leaning towards thinking this looks innocentish, but can't say.

Could be a Lommywolf flip-flopping on whether or not Sally's situation looks hopeless enough to justify a wolf-on-wolf vote.

Morsul
I'm not sure what to make of this. The underlined part sounds really as if he didn't particularly care about who his vote goes to. Normally that kind of behaviour points to a wolf, but on the other hand, a wolf would care about a fellow getting or not getting lynched. It wouldn't be all the same for a wolf whether his fellow is lynched or not, even if that wolf actually voted for that fellow. But then, this post could just as well be an opportunistic wolf voting for a doomed fellow without bothering to come up with arguments to back it up.

Super-confusing. I have no idea what to think about this. At all. Maybe leaning innocent – I don't think a furry Morsul would say this.

Nerwen
Not too fond of the tone of this one. If Sally had been innocent, I'd say this is awfully wolvish. With Sally being a wolf, I'm mainly confused.

Inzil
I don't like how Inzil takes one villager's list of suspects and picks his main suspect from there – the said main suspect being that of most of the village. Wolf-on-wolf? I could see it there, but not necessarily.

Winty

Really, this could go either way. Unless Glirdy was a wolf too, this wouldn't make sense as a wolfywolfy's post unless he was well-instructed during the Night or else followed the lead of one of his fellows during the Day. (Who? I might look into that at some point, it might be enlightening..) I'm talking, of course, about a newbie wolf debating on whether to vote for a fellow or an innocent.
Could be again waiting to get supplied with reasons during the Night. Eurgh. Don't know.

Shasta
Shasta defends Sally here, though only in a small matter. First impression: wolf!! Second impression: I'm not sure if a furry Shasta would defend a fellow who's the main suspect of the Day.

Brinn
Reasoned, unlike many of the Sally-suspecters of yesterDay. Doesn't look wolf-on-wolf.

So here we are. Based on this, I'd make the following list:

good:
Nienna
Legate
Winty
Brinn
leaning goood:
Lommy

confusing aargh:
Nerwen
Morsul
Agan

leaning bad:
Shasta
Inzil
bad:
Nogrod
Glirdan

Mira and Skip I had no quotes on - either because they didn't say anything about her at all, I've lost the quotes in my vast sea of quotes, or they didn't say anything about her that wasn't banter. Please, sweeties, fill me in on which is true.


EDIT: x-ed with 2x Lom & Skip, don't have time to read them, gotta dash, see you later, bye!

Actually, she might have dreamed wolf!Nog...it's beginning to look quite bad for him. I think she dreamed either Legate or Agan, though.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm back! First off, it seems I've made a mess again with the Inzil-quote-thing.Ok, that's cleared - I understood great to mean considerable of size/quantity/importance.
Yeah. It was partly that I misunderstood Inzil, partly that I didn't like the way he seemed to imply that making sense and being a wolf can't go together.
A probably irrelevant question: what does TLDR mean?
Ok, thanks, that cleared - though I'm not sure if I buy your point.
A technical point: getting a wolf lynched usually requires a bandwagon. Just saying. Of course, that isn't to say that I approve of Morsul's early, bandwaggonish vote. I don't.

Responding to random things; not much there to guess at dreams from.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'd prefer voting Glirdan or Nogrod toDay. Glirdan's death, as has been mentioned, would shed light to many things, and his interactions with Sally were very fishy. Nogrod's interactions with Sally looked bad too, and I don't like how he's been slipping under pretty much everyone's radar, being nice and invisible yet contributing. I could also vote Shasta or Inzil, but would prefer one of the earlier two.

Would want to vote for Glirdy (a wolf) or Nog (who she might have dreamed). Actually, the Nog-theory looks pretty convincing...which is a bit of a bummer, because I thought he was innocent.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Bed-time! I've been flip-flopping on whether to vote Nog or Glirdy, and decided to go for

[*highlight]++ Nogrod[/highlight*]

Now I'm not sure if this is a throwaway, I suppose one could see it as such, but I just feel I should stir the pot a bit. I find Nogrod very suspicious, he's being too agreeable and nudging things from the background, and his interactions with Sally seemed quite wolf-on-wolf to me.

I won't be disappointed if Glirdy gets lynched. Unless he's an innocent, of course. That said, good night babes!


EDIT: x-ed with leggy-leggy-legz

Okay, it's looking very bad for Nog now, and she does make good points. My guess is (and I'm well aware that this is probably wrong and nothing to base *anything* on) that she dreamed either Agan or Legate, probably Agan, and Skip, and then Nog.

Pre-edit: I'm sure I've xed since Nerwen's first.

[Inziladun]

I was working on Greenie's Day 3, but it looks like Lottie beat me to it, and probably is more concise and sensible anyway.

[Morsul the Dark]

Moving away from Greenie for the moment...


I was shocked by the pick if I do say so myself not to toot my own horn I was sure I was going to be the victem to days in a row with the right vote... That NEVER happens for me(I'm excited) keep it alive folks!

I'm looking into Agan this is going to be a looong loong post coming up... sorry

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Moving away from Greenie for the moment...


I was shocked by the pick if I do say so myself not to toot my own horn I was sure I was going to be the victem to days in a row with the right vote... That NEVER happens for me(I'm excited) keep it alive folks!

I'm looking into Agan this is going to be a looong loong post coming up... sorry

Um. This isn't moving away from Greenie. Not really. It's still the Night pick. And, not to be mean, you've been voting quite well, but it's not really the same as if you'd been original. You bandwaggoned; there are a lot of people who've bandwaggoned and gotten lucky this game.

Anyway, aside from the *ahem* interesting logic here, this post looks rather bad. Like I said earlier with others, "I was shocked by the pick" looks like "I had no part in choosing it, kthnxbye". (Side note: Shasta does this too - "I spent hours gathering evidence" - but that could just be frustration that he was wrong and wasted his time, rather than randomly "I didn't think that was going to happen".) Also, the "keep it alive folks" looks rather like a wolfly pep-talk.

And why Agan? Since when do you suspect her?

[Morsul the Dark]

I don't suspect her that's the point I was fully prepared to vote Greenie today.

I need to look at people I don't suspect. Agan sprang to mind.

[Morsul the Dark]

keep alive folks is "wolfy"? really three days cobbler wolf wolf youd Don't want to keep that trend alive?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I don't suspect her that's the point I was fully prepared to vote Greenie today.

I need to look at people I don't suspect. Agan sprang to mind.

So...just random, then? If it's just random, why don't you look at someone who doesn't look extremely good considering she was one of the people the seer trusted her whole "life"?

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

keep alive folks is "wolfy"? really three days cobbler wolf wolf youd Don't want to keep that trend alive?

Of course I do. Any innocent would. This goes without saying. Thus, when someone does say it, it seems strange. Why would you need to say it? Because you don't think people would assume you do think that. Why would you worry what people think you think? You're furry.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Would want to vote for Glirdy (a wolf) or Nog (who she might have dreamed). Actually, the Nog-theory looks pretty convincing...which is a bit of a bummer, because I thought he was innocent.

I suspected Greenie for her vote on Nog, because it was so vaguely reasoned, and on someone who was not suspected by anyone else. Curiously, Nog himself disagreed.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But I would say I find Greenie quite innocentish. Her explanations on D1 felt quite honest and true and even if she has managed to fool me big time a few times I still have a gut feeling she's not a baddie. As Lommy said, she tends to suspect me everytime we play so I can't say her suspicion on me was that great a surprise (and actually I can't blame her for voting Shasta either). Also, as I said earlier, she tends to like being the individual-minded, "not going with the flow" player, so I would be more surprised if she started bandwagoning...

That seemed genuine to me at the time, but I suppose it could have been an attempt by a Nogwolf to distance himself from suspecting her. Then again, Nog would have to have known that her being killed after voting him would reflect badly on him. Would he have been unnerved enough by her vote of him to have taken that risk?

x/d with Morsul and Lottie

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I refresh the page and Lottie's already done what I was doing. More time wasted.

I do have an addendum, though. I think Agan was dreamed, but I don't think it was until Day 2. This might be slightly meta (and if so, feel free to smack me) but I think Skip is new enough that Greenie might have waited to see if he was readable before dreaming him.

I think my next project is going to be a Nog-alysis. No one beat me to it, now, or I'll have to steal some tarts.

[Morsul the Dark]

Why'd I say it? because I'm psyched this is the furthest I've ever made it on the winning side in WW I said it more for myself...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Anyone notice that Morsul has talked more in the last half hour or so than he has all game long?

[Morsul the Dark]

I'm off tomorrow I can stay on all night yay!

[Morsul the Dark]

Agan 37

Wow that's a long post.

Defends Winty from Nerwen... calls Nerwen suspicious for asking a reasonable question. Talks about wolf strategies.

Agan 55 Seriously... Take the keyboard away from Agan!

Another long post. boils down to a lot of not much. I still think he want's everyone to get rid of their votes... I t just seems bad what if we Need them later? no one has "Extra" votes this time retractables are an excellent tool, for us and yes sadly for the wolves but with only two wolves left it's even better for us to have them.

Agan 62

List. Most Likely to vote me.... These three show an odd trend however Each One mentions a slip-up maybe She keeps saying something like "Wow I'm glad no one thought I was a wolf for that." As if relieved no one picked up on her mess up.... but only three posts not enough to worry about yet.

By the way While I'm writing this I have another tab going checking on whats going on real time. Shasta thinks Agan was dreamed... Well She May have been but how would we Know that? I think someone's trying to get me to look somewhere else as is Lottie. Now all three can't be evil but One may be

Agan 80

Agan keeps talking about Cobbler appearing "innocent" to seers... I've never known this rule/idea. Seems to want us to not entirely trust our seer granted this point after Fea's lynching is moot it is still strange to advocate. Oh and real quick I'd like to point out 2 wolf votes maybe my logic Does work sometimes!

Agan 88

Mostly response to me. First off thanks for calling me Lazy, That was pretty cool of you. Second I take these games too seriously if I'm "Half Hearted it's because This time around I'm trying to have fun, which I am. Lastly uses retractable taking own advice good move.

110

Imagine some innocents, a couple of wolves. The innocents have used (most of) their retractions, the wolves haven't. The wolves can vote for whomever is the most convenient for them and then, when most other votes have been given, unite and direct their votes towards an innocent who is lynched, and nobody else can do anything. Because I can see that scenario, I'd rather eliminate it before the wolves have even a chance to try it.

That's why you keep it and not use it. Though it seems Sally used hers as well maybe have their pack-mates keep theirs while trying to get the rest of us to use ours?

247 At this point she's using a lot of 'Yeah I'm a wolf ha ha' lines in some of her posts too many for my comfort as Sally said wolves can hide behind these jokes and she's bee using them a lot.

I'd like to point out Lottie has Agan Greeni Glirdan and Sally as the wolves Ok Greenie is wrong but the other two are right... So agan this is a very very Small point against you tiny (It won't be a vote maker don't worry.)

249 rebukes Lottie... good show...

At this point Agan is on the fence for me. I won't vote her unless I see something amazing in the rest of her posts.

252
Suspects Inzil for listening to him... Another Argument I've had. Why do we bother listing reasons unless we expect to persuade anyone? Why am I doing this post? Sure I could look through say "Hey agan's cleared/guilty(let you know when I'm done)" Then everyone would say "where's your reasoning?" I read other peoples' analyses and like their reasons so I I take that was a reason to vote. I'm sorry about the way I do things.

This isn't only Agan's view but I find it all too common.

281

I really don't like the way Agan's going after people who haven't used their retractions seems to be an easy way to pick off people and have her dream scenario of only wolves having theirs left.

285

Line she does something she condemns others for she take's nienna's word and changes suspicion. I'm Opportunistic Lazy a Horrible Person should be lynched right now and so what I voted for two wolves so what obviously I some horrible person.... (Sorry, Serenity NOW)

489

Last Paragraph agains says she put Sally as supicious based only on what others said isn't that terrible thing to do Agan... "Do as I say not as I do?"

511
1 Am I'm really sleepy... Look I Can't find anything outside of some name calling I feel unfairly towards me I can't find anything Agan is cleared in my mind....


Nerwen Tomorrow... or later today whatever time it is...She's always under my radar.

[Brinniel]

It's late and I'm sleep deprived, so I probably will be saying very little for the time being.

I mentioned yesterDay that Glirdan's death could shed light on many things, and knowing he was a wolf, I think it'll be a very good idea to look at his and others' posts from earlier Days along with yesterDay's voting. With the votes....after losing one wolf, I would think the other two wouldn't be so ready to sacrifice another, so I would look at those who were hesitant and perhaps discouraging of the bandwagon. Of course, it'd also be very easy for a wolf to hide within that bandwagon, and I'm sure at least one is in there. Those who didn't vote until later when it was evident Glirdan was a lost cause would probably look the worst, but then again we must keep in mind time zones/availability which could make the timing of the votes not so valid.

Greenie's death is a surprise. Upon learning Glirdan's role, I was thinking she was looking rather suspicious after choosing to vote Nogrod over Glirdan...so I would imagine that there would be a pretty good reason why the wolves would feel the need to kill her. Though I suppose they could also just be messing with our heads and just ended up getting lucky.

Too late to say more or look at anything now, but I should have a fairly decent chunk of time to participate tomorrow.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Seriously... Take the keyboard away from Agan!

Another long post. boils down to a lot of not much. I still think he want's everyone to get rid of their votes... I t just seems bad what if we Need them later? no one has "Extra" votes this time retractables are an excellent tool, for us and yes sadly for the wolves but with only two wolves left it's even better for us to have them.

1. And you said Agan was rude!

2. She's a she, not a he.

By the way While I'm writing this I have another tab going checking on whats going on real time. Shasta thinks Agan was dreamed... Well She May have been but how would we Know that? I think someone's trying to get me to look somewhere else as is Lottie. Now all three can't be evil but One may be

Um...no. This is just silly. And, not to be rude, but I for one don't really care where you look. You can go on a crusade to kill me for all I care.

Agan keeps talking about Cobbler appearing "innocent" to seers... I've never known this rule/idea. Seems to want us to not entirely trust our seer granted this point after Fea's lynching is moot it is still strange to advocate. Oh and real quick I'd like to point out 2 wolf votes maybe my logic Does work sometimes!

1. Then look at the list of rules. It's there.

2. A lot of people have two wolf votes by this point. It's not an idication of your own special logic; it's an indication that this village is awesome as a whole.

Mostly response to me. First off thanks for calling me Lazy, That was pretty cool of you. Second I take these games too seriously if I'm "Half Hearted it's because This time around I'm trying to have fun, which I am. Lastly uses retractable taking own advice good move.

Morsul...calm down. She's never played with you before and she's trying to get a feel for your playing style. It's not personal, but you're making it be.

That's why you keep it and not use it. Though it seems Sally used hers as well maybe have their pack-mates keep theirs while trying to get the rest of us to use ours?

Um, what?

At this point she's using a lot of 'Yeah I'm a wolf ha ha' lines in some of her posts too many for my comfort as Sally said wolves can hide behind these jokes and she's bee using them a lot.

That wasn't Sally, at least not as far as I know. I think it was Nog.

I'd like to point out Lottie has Agan Greeni Glirdan and Sally as the wolves Ok Greenie is wrong but the other two are right... So agan this is a very very Small point against you tiny (It won't be a vote maker don't worry.)

*cough*Agan is no longer one of my suspects*cough*

*cough*This point only makes sense if you make it two Days ago*cough*

249 rebukes Lottie... good show...

Ha! Now this I agree with. Although maybe just I read it with a British accent.

Suspects Inzil for listening to him... Another Argument I've had. Why do we bother listing reasons unless we expect to persuade anyone? Why am I doing this post? Sure I could look through say "Hey agan's cleared/guilty(let you know when I'm done)" Then everyone would say "where's your reasoning?" I read other peoples' analyses and like their reasons so I I take that was a reason to vote. I'm sorry about the way I do things.

1. HER. For listening to HER.

2. Not just listening; for listening blindly and not using his own logic.

This isn't only Agan's view but I find it all too common.

What isn't just Agan's view?

I really don't like the way Agan's going after people who haven't used their retractions seems to be an easy way to pick off people and have her dream scenario of only wolves having theirs left.

That isn't what she's doing at all. And if that were the case, why did she and Sally both dump theirs?

Line she does something she condemns others for she take's nienna's word and changes suspicion. I'm Opportunistic Lazy a Horrible Person should be lynched right now and so what I voted for two wolves so what obviously I some horrible person.... (Sorry, Serenity NOW)

You. Are. Over. Reacting. Stop doing that - taking everything so personally. It's really rather annoying, and I'm not just talking about this game. You know what I mean.

Last Paragraph agains says she put Sally as supicious based only on what others said isn't that terrible thing to do Agan... "Do as I say not as I do?"

No. You aren't giving your own reasoning. She's listening rationally to what others say and taking that into account. There's a difference.

1 Am I'm really sleepy... Look I Can't find anything outside of some name calling I feel unfairly towards me I can't find anything Agan is cleared in my mind....

So you can't find anything, thus you'll drop it. Because you just made this post to fill up space. Because that's totally helpful.

Nerwen Tomorrow... or later today whatever time it is...She's always under my radar

She's always under everyone's radar. Good choice to analyze next, though, I must admitt.

[Nerwen]

Now, naturally we have no guarantee Greenie dreamt a wolf at all. However, since she stated suspicion of Nogrod yesterDay, and indeed voted him, and since Nogrod was starting to creep me out towards the end of yesterDay, I think he's worth looking at. Besides, he's been under my radar most of the game.

Nogrod, Day One

#33
Banter; is "uneasy" with Lottie:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

For the Duchess surely goes into that infamous mode of "no bad person, even insane one, would do that kind of a thing" - like screaming "Go wolves!" on D1...

Comments: This post follows Fea's unexplained vote on Lottie– perhaps opportunistic? The mention of Poison Ivy-Nerwolf also seems perhaps a trifle insidious– like it's trying to create guilt-by-association. To be fair, though, the "Arkham Asylum" game must still be fresh in peoples minds, and Nogrod wasn't the only one to claim to find Lottie's songs questionable at this point– Zil and Nienna did too. (Fea, presumeably, didn't.)


#60
Ask for real names to be used; finds a post of Shasta's (not indicated) "unreadable"; says that Agan's comment about the Seer not being 100% reliable (because of the Cursed) is not helpful so early in the game and that she seems overly worried about her image.

–Jumps on Zil for saying wintywinty's vote should be scrutinized, finding it a typically wolfish statement.

–Dismisses Lottie's explanation that she wrote the songs before getting her role:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It's not so much about when you wrote that piece of ambiguity, but what was your role when you decided it was a good way to start posting?

#85
Dismisses Zil's explanation for his use of "scrutiny", elaborates on why it's so suspicious– apparently because the vote cannot in itself reveal ww's role.

Comments: This is complete hair-splitting, and is in fact quite a weird reason to go after someone. As I said yesterDay (or the Day before, I forget) it could be a language-problem– i.e. Nogrod taking things too literally.


#99
Discusses rules and the retraction-issue, is perturbed by Lottie-wagon, though at the same time he does not find her at all innocent-looking.

Comments: Hmmn. Seems like he wants it both ways...


#108
Compares the people voting for Lottie (Fea, Lommy and Greenie at that point) to the retraction-dumpers (Sally and Aganzir), and wonders if it's just herd-mentality or something more.

Comments: Looking for reasons to suspect as many people as possible? Perhaps– mind you, both of those affairs were worth commenting on. He does exaggerate, saying "a band" of people had used their retrackies when only two had.


#115
Quotes Inzil's latest defence, but appears not to accept it... though he also says the affair is "running out of proportion". Says he now has an opinion on Zil, but does not state it.

Comments: Uh... *scratches head* Really, I don't know what to make of that post at all. What is he trying to say?


#119. Tells Skip how to highlight votes.


#128
Suspicion list. With the exception of Izzy (trusted) and Skip ("making a lot of sense") is non-committal about everyone. Now also concerned about the save-Lottie-wagon.

Comments: Okaay. This post is quite wolfy-looking– Nog's at pains to leave himself room either to suspect or not suspect virtually the entire village. Yes, it was Day One, but still...


#137
Suggests Fea and Lottie may be a cobbler and wolf testing each other out. Votes Fea (Fea 2), because though he suspects them both, he suspects her more.

Comments: *shrugs* Perfectly reasonable vote-post. Nothing to say about it.

General Remarks: Well, while #128 is the only single post I'd call definitely furry-looking, from Nog's overall Day One posting I shouldn't be that *surprised* if he turns out a wolf. I won't put it stronger than that– later Days may give a different picture. Also, I haven't yet looked at what the known wolves said about him– as I recall, not much.

I have to go now, but when I come back I'll look at Nogrod on Days 2 and 3 and at Sallywolf and Glirwolf's relations with him, if no-one has in the meantime.

EDIT:X'd with a host.

[Loslote]

One more thing I just realized with Morsul:

He keeps proclaiming that he's successfully voted for two wolves in two consecutive Days. Okay. That's lovely.

How, exactly, would you know who to vote? You don't post anything to tell us. We are left to assume you know this because you are part of the pack. So maybe you don't want to emphasize that quite as much as you are. Just sayin'.

[wintywinty]

Hello all, I just wanted to apologize for missing all of yesterday and not being able to vote, as I was extremely busy, and I did not have the opportunity to reach a computer. I will vote today, and hopefully contribute to the discussion more.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so first, the Seer thing is pretty unfortunate especially at the time like this, as I would have expected this Day to be a really good one for a Seer to reveal (if he had something interesting to say), as that's been quite a long time no Seer around (usually, on Day 2 or 3 at most somebody appears claiming to be a Seer. And especially in this game I was quite happy at the prospect of it happening today, as if such a Seer was an impostor, he'd basically sacrifice himself, with such a low amount of Wolves remaining). Well, okay, but on the positive note, we still have lynched a Wolf yesterDay and now we can look for all the possible evidence related to voting bandwaggons etc.

Greenie kill first, though, I don't know if we can assume that the Wolves expected anything from her, on the other hand, she was suspected quite well too, so maybe there had to be a reason to kill her other than a no-trace kill. On the third hand again, most importantly I think we should try to think of Greenie's death in the light of the fact that there are two Wolves who just lost two of their packmates consequently in two Days, have no Cobbler, and it's quite possible some of them are suspected considerably. Now when we look back at the previous Night's kill, it's quite easy to see why a no-trace kill was chosen, they had to just hope that Glirdan will be forgotten next Day and so probably did not want to make any move which could either confirm it or look like a bluff. This time, maybe they wanted to cover the track completely - possibility A - but let's not rule out possibility B, that they wanted to stir thoughts in the village in order to produce new suspects out of the village's own initiative (thus having their hands clean in bringing them up), and that might be for instance framing Nogrod - or Lottie, for that matter, who still hasn't been targeted (but that thing just wouldn't work because there's been no counterevidence for her being the Shiriff, so it does not make sense for anyone to disbelieve her). For that matter, I think framing Nogrod is a possibility, even though I am not saying some of the things - as noted by Nerwen, like that "free to suspect anyone" post on Day 1 - could not point to his guilt.

There was something I wanted to say in regards to Lottie - oh yes, this. Just to note, I think the Wolves might be keeping her around partially also because of the fact that she seems to raise suspicion for lot of people, and especially if it's wrong, they might be thinking that she might serve to make some confusion in the village (influence other people with wrong assumptions etc.) However, of course, if they suspected Greenie was the Seer, then it is perfectly explainable why they didn't target Lottie even though she's a known innocent (and thus at least a hindrance in the voting process as the village's numbers get thinner). If there was anything that could lead the Wolves to think that way, it would be at most that Greenie's remark "you are no Seer", or something, which in the context was maybe a bit out-of-the-blue, but not necessarily sticking out so much (however, now on the other hand, thinking about it, I think I have sort of noticed it back then when she was saying it, even though I didn't pay attention to it - but then it might be likely that if some Wolf was intentionally looking for Seer hints, he might have noticed it. So maybe it raises the probability of the Wolves actually knowing whom they are killing?). Or then we are back again at the possibility of a paranoid Wolfgrod killing her because there was simply no other way. But all in all it really depends on whether the WWs suspected she was the Seer or not.

As for Greenie's dreams, I really am not able to collect any definitely proven hints. It is also possible, however, that she has dreamed of some of the people who have died, which might happen. What she says about Nogrod does not seem to me necessarily like dreaming about him - and I have at least seen that she really tends to suspect him in many games (and he suspects her - which didn't happen that much here, but that does not say anything, it would've been more telling if it was the other way around). I think Greenie was in general rather careful in announcing what she possibly knew about people, which in this way is a pity, but what can we do.

Otherwise, I would join what's been said here:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I do have an addendum, though. I think Agan was dreamed, but I don't think it was until Day 2. This might be slightly meta (and if so, feel free to smack me) but I think Skip is new enough that Greenie might have waited to see if he was readable before dreaming him.

That makes sense in comparison to what I have read and I can very well imagine Greenie dreaming of Skip on Day 1. That sounds actually the most plausible of all things I can think of, given that she was also absolutely happy to see him playing etc, so I assume she could have dreamed him.

I guess that's it. But otherwise:

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I mentioned yesterDay that Glirdan's death could shed light on many things, and knowing he was a wolf, I think it'll be a very good idea to look at his and others' posts from earlier Days along with yesterDay's voting. With the votes....after losing one wolf, I would think the other two wouldn't be so ready to sacrifice another, so I would look at those who were hesitant and perhaps discouraging of the bandwagon. Of course, it'd also be very easy for a wolf to hide within that bandwagon, and I'm sure at least one is in there. Those who didn't vote until later when it was evident Glirdan was a lost cause would probably look the worst, but then again we must keep in mind time zones/availability which could make the timing of the votes not so valid.

Very good "methodical" thoughts, so to say, and that said, off to re-check some of my theories in the light of Glirdan's death, and also re-check yesterDay's voting. Will be back in a while with a few comments to the current situation.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So, after looking again through the thread yesterDay and the Day before that a bit too, some comments.

People I believe more innocent now related to what they said or whatnot in relation to Glirdan: Lommy (remarked about his possible guilt early in the Day because of ), Nienna (was among the first yesterDay to speak and she mentioned that Glirdan actually likely is a Wolf), Morsul (the same, even more strongly), Brinn (generally she said and voted in a few ways that make it seem genuine for her to be against the Wolves, and not just acting or something). The question is, how much were the Wolves willing to get rid of Glirdan yesterDay, there's a slight possibility that they have been decided from the beginning that he's gone and let him be. But in some way I find it more likely that they would not just give up and encourage his lynch strongly to make themselves look innocent. I think some stumbling in the middle is more expectable.

For that matter, my suspicion of Inzil with the theory that if Glirdan is a Wolf, Inzil might be a packmate with interesting way of choosing sides would of course work now. The curious thing however is that Inzil did something again which would be so clumsy that I can't believe he would do that - starting yesterDay with defending Glirdan, while he voted him the Day before. For an innocent, this behavior would make far more sense than for a Wolf. And given now that sally and Glirdan were both guilty, sally's remark "Inzil is innocent, I just know that" seems rather more unlikely to make if Inzil was another packmate of theirs - simply putting too much at risk.

So I am not sure right now what to think of Inzil. Anyway, as for what I have said about Greenie possibly dreaming about skip, his yesterDay's voting was on the other hand very suspicious - but then again, I have read this:

Originally Posted by skip spence

Glirdan – He came after Sally early, long before it became clear that either one of these two would die. I believe Glirdan proactively participating in lynching Sally is a sign of his innocence although not proof. At this point only a very shrewd wolf would actively go after a fellow wolf, because, let’s face it, a wolf lynched is a step towards a village victory, and an innocent lynched is a step away from that, there’s no getting around that simple fact. A wolf jumping on the bandwagon, yes why not, but actively working to make that bandwagon happen, I doubt it. I could be wrong and maybe that’s everyday business in the ww-world, but to me that feels like too much of a gamble for uncertain profits. For the moment Glirdan has redeemed himself.

I think this might be a very innocent explanation of why skip trusted Glirdan, and so in the end I am ready to accept him as innocent, given the other things like the probability that Greenie dreamed of him. But all in all, otherwise, things start getting rather dark. That means I probably have to look at the rest of the people whom I have not been looking very much at this far - like Shasta, Mira etc. I am also growing slight paranogroid, but... well.

[Thinlómien]

Here. Glad to see Glirdan gone and proven a wolf, but sorry to see poor little Greenie gone. I have skimmed through toDay's posts and agree with those who suspect Nogrod. Why? Because if Greenie hadn't spotted a wolf and made them nervous by that, I doubt they'd have killed her since assuming they're assuming that Lottie was protected by the ranger on Night3, they would now have had their chance of getting rid of the known innocent. And, as somebody said, Greenie would've been a lynch candidate toDay probably, so they must've had the real reason to kill her.

This all leads me to believe she dreamt of Nogrod and the wolves noticed it (or she didn't but the wolves still thought she did) and that's why I did. Nog's downplaying of her suspicion yesterDay ("she always suspects me") would support this theory (although I must admit I started the talk about her always suspecting him). Another possibility is that she dreamt of (or seemd to have dreamt of) Shastawolf, but I can't say whether that's a plausible theory before I've checked some facts.

It's always such a pity when the seer dies without being able to come out. Well, we just have to live with it and try to find out her dreams - and on the positive side, we have lynched two wolves and a cobbler in three Days. Not bad!

Now I'm off to find some quotes to reply...

PS. Legate, you have exactly 5000 posts!

[Thinlómien]

Points from yesterDay after I went to sleep

Nogrod must be guilty since he has Sauron on his yard. Now I remember that when I was reading the happenings overNight I was thinking the remaining wolves must be Nogrod/Nerwen/Aganzir and Skip. I don't remember why I thought so, and my opinions are altered/altering, but thought to mention that.

It would be incredibly funny of Zil was a wolf. Wolves on the tops of suspicion lists all the time. But to be honest, Zil does make me suspicious: he thinks so differently all the time, he's been so wrong about things, it really doesn't seem very innocent anymore. On the other hand, the village has had three or four heavy suspects this far, and two of them have been wolves, so we might have Zil here as the quota innocent who just seems darn suspicious...


Points from toDay

As for Zil and Lottie's very helpful (thanks!) Greenie quotes, I'd think she dreamt of

Night1 by Day1 posts: innocent Agan (?) (I think she must've mentioned the innocent she found in case she gets extremely unlucky and gets killed. The other option, which I actually find more likely - now that I think of it - given her flip-flopping on Agan later on is that she dreamt of someone who hadn't appeared yet when she posted and thus she had no excuse to mention him/her. I will certainly do some rereading toDay so I can check who posted only after her and compare that with her Day2 list of people...)

Night2 by Day2 posts: innocent Mira ("feels innocent though I disagree with her a lot") or wolf-Shasta (she starts suspecting him) or with bad luck innocent Lottie or innocent Legate ("seems innocentish this far") or innocent Skip ("seems maybe the most innocentish at this point (discounting Lottie and myself, of course), makes sense and feels genuine") or innocent me ("has dropped the mysterious attitude and feels more or less like her innocent self") or innocent Brinn ("I'm leaning towards thinking her innocent. Her reactions seem genuine to me"). If she dreamt of Skip, it feels likely she also dreamt of Fea, Boro, Lottie or wolf Shasta. Why? Because she singled Skip out as the most innocent, which would be a weird thing for a seer to do if she had two known innocents. If looking at phrasings as clues to separating dreams from other stuff, Mira and I "feel" innocent while Legate and Skip "seem" innocent, and Skip and Brinn seem "genuine". This would make me think that if she had two known innocents, it would be those to whom she refers by seeming (seeming vs seer) or those she singles out by the word "genuine".

Night3 by Day3 posts: I doubt she'd have incriminated her known innocents ways of interacting with Sally. Thus I would conclude her known innocents are among those she cathegorised "good" or had no material of, aka Nienna, Legate, Winty, Brinn, Skip and Mira, and she could very well have dreamt of a Wolfgrod.

I understand I can't make a whole picture of her dreams without really checking who hadn't posted before she voted on Day1. I will do that after finishing this post, but now I think the most believable dream chain would be something like Boro - Skip - Nog. I remember Boro posted only after her on Day1 and he'd be a believable Night1 pick for almost any seer, Greenie having no more than one known innocent on Day2 would explain her phrasing about Skippy and her dreaming of Nog would explain her confident yet slightly grasping-at-straws seeming attack on Nog on Day3.

The only thing I'm wondering about is that whether she'd have come out with one known wolf. I thought this for a while and concluded no. She was suspected so much that she would've felt pretty safe from Night kills and if my (slightly far-fetched but not bad) specution is correct and she only had one known innocent, I think she would've wanted to have at least one more dream. Alas that it backfired! *feels like Legolas or some other funny LotR character who says "alas!" all the time*

Lottie, hold your horses! Now new crusades, darling, please. I'm not cliaming Morsul's innocent but I'm sensing another full frontal attack and not sure if that's good...

[Thinlómien]

Now I'm off to have a slight pause from ww and then I'm coming back and start working.

We have quite a lot of untouched evidence. I'm going to do the ambitious thing: check all Sally and especially Glirdan's interactions with all the people alive.

Since I will skim through all of this thread (eurgh) I will also have a look at people who could've been Greenie's Night1 dream and at Izzy's suspects in case she was killed for looking like the seer (just if anything catches my eye).

[Nerwen]

#286. "I'm here" and IC banter.


#326
Says Lottie is "running amok"; suspects are "naturally annoyed, whatever their role". Says there have been "interesting points" raised (doesn't specify).


#333. Conveys Agan's intention to vote for Zil (Agan's connection had died).


#336
Likes the points raised against Sally, Zil, and "to a lesser extent") Glirdy and Brinn (whatever those were). Thinks well of Agan, Greenie, Skip and Izzy.
Comments: And that really is all he said... hardly anything to summarise.


343
Notes as "interesting" (one word comment) a post where Glirdan seemingly copied wintywinty's wording. Glirdan at #409 seems to overreact to this.


#333.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

More interesting details pouring out?

Comments: Probably nothing here... but that is a rather odd thing to say, just by itself, with no indication what he thinks of Sally at this point. If Sallywolf *had* indeed planned to impersonate the Seer, this could be read as prompting her to reveal, or at least drawing attention to her hints for other players' benefit.


#364
Says he is disappointed by his own lack of input, blames it on tiredness.

As you Lottie mentioned it, I suddenly remembered this (I was coming convinced that she is innocent - Greenie that is - just becasue I knew she had a tough day on D1 and I could sympathise with her haste and tiredness toDay coming to the thread such late). But it could actually fit.

This, I assume, refers to Lottie's theory that Greenie and Sally were packmates.


#378
Doesn't like Mira and finds her vote on wintywinty too easy, likewise Shasta's "rambling over whether to lynch Morsul or winty". Reminds everyone that Morsul's playing style always gets him suspected and often lynched, and that winty is just a newbie; believes winty's comment about Brinn was innocent.

Comments: Reasonable... unless of course he does turn out to be a wolf, in which case Morsul or wintywinty could be his packmate.


#388
Wonders if Sally is guilty, since she seems ready to see any comment as a threat. Asks her if she's "resigning already". Approves Lottie's bringing forward an alternative candidate (Glirdy) and disagrees with Sally that Lottie's plan has "gaping holes".

Comments: This post may have helped get Sally lynched: Nienna (##391 appears quite impressed by it, and as we know she went on to give Sally her death-blow.


#390
Votes Sally (Sally 5). Says he had considered voting Glirdan, but found him less suspicious than Sally.


General Comments: Meh... Can't really tell either way– he's given so little to go on. No wonder he's been under the radar! This could be Nogwolf testing the wind, then resigning himself to losing a comrade and taking a while to decide which one to vote for– or innocent Nogrod without time and/or energy to contribute much. (Note though, that he's posted quite a lot, it's just that most of it lacks substance.) Did play a real, if small, part in getting Sally lynched, but some of his other posts seem off.

EDIT:X'd with two Lommies.

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Uh-oh... This doesn't make any sense.

I mean really. There was that "you are no seer" -thing, but that's basically the only thing one could say that would hint towards her being the seer. So the wolves got really lucky this time. But getting lucky doesn't explain why they chose her. For some actual reason or just to confuse us?

Okay. One scenario: like someone said already, maybe they were taking even more heat than we know? Making a totally odd kill would keep us going around the subject for quite a while - and thus we might let our main suspicions from yesterDay to recede?

Well I'm not impressed by that interpretation but at the moment I can't think of a better one.

Btw. I do appreciate the effort of trying to figure out whom she dreamt of but as you can see, Greenie was clearly intentionally ambiguous about her knowledge... to a point we have no way of "knowing" anything from her posting (we should read her closely and try to form some opinions of them to be sure but I'm afraid that we can't quite trust those interpretations fully). It's always a bit unfair to speak bad of the dead, but I really think she should have been a tad more forthcoming with her knowledge. Maybe she felt she was safe, but going to N4 without giving even one clear hint is a little reckless.

And really, toying with a scenario. If I was a wolf and she had dreamt of me wouldn't she have said that openly? She would have gotten at least one more dream and the wolves would be down to one after you lynched me toDay. Also she could have thus given us all the known innocents (or even the last wolf!) she had clear and openly and not leave us into this interpretation-game over them.

I do think Greenie is smart enough to have gathered that.


Okay. I have to run now but I'll be back in the evening (RL).

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[Thinlómien]

Massive disagreement with Nogrod:

1) Greenie's smart, but because she was suspected so much and she hadn't posted anything obviously seerish (as we have noticed when trying to analyse her dreams), I think she would've dared not to come out, especially if she had lost one dream (dreamt of someone who died) at some point, which is an option we have to keep in mind.

2) Looking at a seer's posts is never a bad thing. You may be pessimistic (or a wolf), but I'm not. I have correctly interpreted a dead seer's dreams before and Greenie is just a tad more difficult challenge. You of all people should remember this (remember the last game you modded?). There's no way for us to find the absolute truth about Greenie's dreams, but we can make good guesses which can help us in our suspicions. A bit the same way a wolf's fellow wolves can't be absolutely logically found out from his/her posts but we can make good guesses to one way or another... Besides, currently we could even afford to be misguided for a Day or two and people tend to rethink things in the light of new events.

[Morsul the Dark]

Lottie

1. And you said Agan was rude!

Should have added a smilie I meant it jokingly I didn't call her lazy. However point taken I apologize.

Again I keep saying it because I'm excited I never list reasons why I voted the way I did? I did list them. I found Sally suspicious and after reading I believe your analysis it seemed confirmed. I voted Glirdan because of Sally's post it made NO sense any other way for me. and Winty voted because of a first post vote followed by "Day 1 who cares"

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

One more thing I just realized with Morsul:

He keeps proclaiming that he's successfully voted for two wolves in two consecutive Days. Okay. That's lovely.

How, exactly, would you know who to vote? You don't post anything to tell us. We are left to assume you know this because you are part of the pack. So maybe you don't want to emphasize that quite as much as you are. Just sayin'.

Mmn. I think it fair to say that Morsul is doing *remarkably* well for someone who's scarcely been around... to the point where he bears looking at.
However, you are exaggerating a bit there, Lottie: in fact he put forward quite serviceable reasons of his own for voting Glirdan here.

As for Nogrod, I am seriously considering voting him after his last post (#587). "Working out the dead Seer's dreams? What a waste of time!"

But I haven't done Day 3 yet, so I'll just have to do my best not to let it bias my judgement.

[Morsul the Dark]

Thanks Nerwen... But I've fallen for your flattery before *glares* I'm not this time

[Morsul the Dark]

... It really couldn't be as easy as this... Am I the only one noticing both ourwolves are Tea Party guests?... Mira's the last of the party... it couldn't be that easy though.

This post is pretty much joking

[Morsul the Dark]

1 Seer: chooses 1 person a Night and finds out their role.

It doesn't say sees "Innocent or Wolf" it says "Their ROLE" Why wouldn't we trust a seers dream Agan... Sorry I'm back on that because I just went through the rules it was bugging me.

and Lottie I feel a challenge there... a wolf saying "I'm beyond suspicion come get me. Of course with no counter reveal I suppose I'll have to trust you.

Lastly I voted first for both wolves... If I knew they would get the most votes for the day I'd be A) psychic and B) insane for offering them up for slaughter.

Still looking at Nerwen.

[skip spence]

Just checking in briefly without having read anything in detail but Morsul, this is a very incriminating statement. A slip of the tongue perhaps, but one that could cost you your head.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Lastly I voted first for both wolves... If I knew they would get the most votes for the day I'd be A) psychic and B) insane for offering them up for slaughter.

[Morsul the Dark]

and if it does all I can say is we as a village had a good run figures We'd lynch an innocent eventually...

[Thinlómien]

Gotta run now, megalysis still in process (I'm on page 7)... I'll be back in about 4½ hours and will be completing my analysis then.

Morsul is confusing...

[Morsul the Dark]

Painting my kitchen today so no time.

++Shasta

Shasta: Something that bothers me is that Lottie has been pouncing on her four suspects for "acting too innocent", but misses this completely. Lottie, I realize you're a known innocent, but really? Just because you think you've spotted all four wolves in the first day doesn't mean you stop looking at anyone else and focus solely on those four. For example, several of the points in your "Sal-alysis" are pretty clearly grasping at straws.

grasping at straws this isn't?

Like I said... day 2 easy lynch. With Morsul being opportunistic and Winty being bandwaggonish (going to get reasons for your votes from your packmates tonight, winty?), it's kind of hard to choose, but...
++Morsul

Gave my reasons.

473 and 474 backpeddles pretty quick

534 votes greenie...

Have fun! I need a WW break so I probably won't be back before DL(Sometimes you have to put the computer down.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Painting my kitchen today so no time.

++Shasta


grasping at straws this isn't?



Gave my reasons.

473 and 474 backpeddles pretty quick

534 votes greenie...

Have fun! I need a WW break so I probably won't be back before DL(Sometimes you have to put the computer down.)

1. No, it wasn't. You pretty clearly did the same thing Lottie was criticizing others for.

2. It doesn't follow that I'm a wolf just because I voted for the seer - I honestly suspected Greenie for several, easily-documented reasons.

And what's this about backpedaling?

I'm between classes right now, but I should have that Nog-alysis up in a few hours.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I did have time to look up #473 and #474, though (the posts that Morsul mentions), and all I have to say about that is, misrepresentation by omission, much? Take a look at #494 and get back to me, Morsul.

Honestly I almost want to vote him for sheer annoyance, but... that's how he plays every game. However, Lommy did put forward that theory about a Shasta-wolf... it makes one wonder.

[Brinniel]

Day 1

none

Day 2

Nogrod – Usually, at this point of the game, I'm convinced he's a wolf. This far I guess he's never been one when we've played together. So now I'm wondering if I should get worried as I've found no reason to suspect him...

Day 3

Nogrod

Carefully voices some suspicion on her yet flip-flops nicely. The three dots in the end creep me out, like the ”I never get her” in the beginning. He's kind of – how to say it – decisively undecisive. Looks rather wolf-on-wolf, though could be genuine.

Could go either way, really.

I don't like the look of this. Looks like an opportunistic wolf-on-wolf vote.

bad:
Nogrod
Glirdan

I'd prefer voting Glirdan or Nogrod toDay. Glirdan's death, as has been mentioned, would shed light to many things, and his interactions with Sally were very fishy. Nogrod's interactions with Sally looked bad too, and I don't like how he's been slipping under pretty much everyone's radar, being nice and invisible yet contributing. I could also vote Shasta or Inzil, but would prefer one of the earlier two.

++ Nogrod

Now I'm not sure if this is a throwaway, I suppose one could see it as such, but I just feel I should stir the pot a bit. I find Nogrod very suspicious, he's being too agreeable and nudging things from the background, and his interactions with Sally seemed quite wolf-on-wolf to me.

I do think the possibility of a Nogwolf is realistic. For one thing, I wouldn't be at all surprised that Greenie would choose to dream Nogrod, especially seeing the single comment she wrote about him before Day 3. And again, I don't see why the wolves would've chosen to kill her, unless they had a reason to suspect she was the seer. Her comments on Nogrod are the only ones that look potentially seerish...everything else she says seems a bit too vague. The question is would a Nogwolf kill Greenie knowing that if she is the seer it might put him in the spotlight? At this point, I think so. With half the team and their cobbler down, the wolves aren't exactly in a good position and couldn't afford a seer reveal. And a seer reveal could've been quite likely toDay considering Greenie might've been a heavy suspect after yesterDay. Looking suspicious is better than becoming a known wolf. If Nogrod is a wolf, it's best to keep in mind he would've been well aware that killing her would make him look suspicious if she did turn out as the seer, so I imagine that a Nogwolf would come into toDay prepared to defend himself.

Now it could just be that Greenie was killed at random, a lucky guess from the wolves that also frames an innocent Nogrod. But I still have trouble believing that simply because I wouldn't understand why the wolves would kill someone who had the possibility of getting lynched toDay unless they had reason to believe she need to be eliminated.