Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXIII: The Cottage of Lost Play

[Eönwë]

The thing is, I don't like the way that yesterday people were saying that I was linked to Pitchwife, yet as soon as he dies (and is proved innocent, a ranger, in fact), they stopped mentioning it, but with Inziladun (who I was also supposed to be linked with, but this was mentioned much less than Pitchwife), suddenly I am deeply connected.

Inziladun just used my non-serious suspicion of Shasta to lynch him (this was helped a lot by Nogrod).

In fact, for tomorrow, what does everyone think of Noggie's Shasta attack?

[Eönwë]

Ok, it's too late.

++Nessa

I will explain tomorrow.

[Eönwë]

She seems the worst to me out of the two (Nessa and autume)

[Nogrod]

Okay, let it be bold then...

I'll not vote.

With a triple lynch we have nice chances of winning toDay and getting out of this alive.

[Mnemosyne]

"It has to be the way," said Nogrod. "They're our three most-suspicious looking housemates, and the sooner we can get this over with..." He shuddered.

"It isn't too late to change it?" said autume98. She swallowed nervously.

Eönwë said nothing, but stared straight ahead.

Nessa looked as if she was about to cry.

"All right," said Nerwen. "At least this time it'll be intentional. How are we going to do it?"

"Last night was a disaster," said Rikae. "I wish Tolkien had put firearms into Middle-earth, then we could do the firing squad and no one would know who had a blank."

"Well," said Lalaith, "if you think about the blasting fire, and the express train..."

Nobody laughed.

"Actually, I think there might be another way," said Nerwen. She pointed behind her to the hallway leading from the sitting room. The wide corridor was filled with trees.

"Huorns?" said Eönwë. "I guess there are worse ways to go."

"How will you know if we're wolves or not, then?" said Nessa.

"The curse is supposed to be lifted once they're all dead," Nogrod said. "I think we'll know."

"Yeah, and look who told us that," said autume.

No one had an answer for that.

Lalaith and Rikae bound the hands of the three with rope, solemnly, as if they were preparing them for burial--which, in a sense, they were.

"All right," said Nerwen. Her voice sounded remarkably steady. "Take twenty paces into the forest, and don't try to escape." She handed a longbow to Nogrod. "If you do, he'll shoot you."

Nogrod looked at the weapon nervously, but nodded.

The three disappeared under the eaves of the forest. There was a strange wind, and a stranger creaking noise. They could hear muffled cries from within.

The trees left.

"Well, that's done," said Lalaith. She walked to the end of the hallway where the door outside, scratched from the first night's kill, stood. She tugged at the handle. It was still locked.

IT IS NOW NIGHT FOUR.

The Living:
Nogrod
Lalaith
Nerwen
Rikae

The Dead:
Feanor of the Peredhil (werewolf)
Boromir88
Shastanis Althreduin
Inziladun (werewolf)
Pitchwife (ranger)
McCaber (seer)
autume98
Eönwë
Nessa Telrunya

[satansaloser2005]

It was storming outside. She could hear the distant crash and boom of thunder. It came slowly, groaning, and climaxed in a great noise of destruction.

Nerwen rose to watch the show.

But when she opened her window, she was not greeted by the fresh smell of rain. Rather, a blast of frigid air blew at her face and stung her nose. Startled, she turned on the light and looked out.

Somehow the landscapes must have shifted, because all she saw in front of her was ice.

Opening her door and looking out, Nerwen quickly realized it was much worse than that. Her entire room had been transported to the ice field. And she realized with a shudder that the noise that had woken her up was not the sound of thunder. It was the creak of shifting ice floes.

As another crash came especially close, she quickly made up her mind and moved. This ice couldn't last forever, and she wouldn't be surprised if she'd been placed right in the middle of it. Grabbing a jacket and wrapping it around her, she stepped outside into the wintry air.

After five minutes of walking there was still no end in sight. She wasn't even sure if she was moving in a straight line anymore. But just as she thought about giving up and lying down to freeze, she saw a small light ahead. Nerwen ran towards it.

It was her camera.

And it was working.

In wonder, she stooped down to pick it up, but her fingers wouldn't hold on it and it seemed to have been anchored in the ice. She heard another creak, this one very close. With no other warning, the ice beneath her cracked open and she slipped down.

Out of sheer instinct she reached out and grabbed onto the camera. Its lens was pointed directly at her face. From behind it, she could hear footsteps. Looking up, she saw a face bending over her.

"Oh, it's you, isn't it?" she said, rather sadly. "Unless you've come to rescue me..."

Her eyes widened in fear as the figure above her transformed into a beast. A large, hairy paw stepped on her hand--just enough to loosen its tentative grip on the camera. With a cry Nerwen vanished into the ice.

And when the guests that remained awoke and made their way downstairs, Nerwen's camera was there, playing her last moments on an infinite playback loop.

Rikae tried to switch it off, or at least turn down the volume. But the controls were jammed.

IT IS NOW DAY FOUR.

The Living:
Nogrod
Lalaith
Rikae

The Dead:
Feanor of the Peredhil (werewolf)
Boromir88
Shastanis Althreduin
Inziladun (werewolf)
Pitchwife (ranger)
McCaber (seer)
autume98
Eönwë
Nessa Telrunya
Nerwen

[Nogrod]

"Okay... my plan misfired badly. So either of you is the last wolf." Nogrod took himself to the kitchen and started grinding some coffee beans...

"Well looking at he situation, it was predictable Nerwen was killed last Night, for she sure looked the most innocent of us - looking at the possible evidence that is. So which one of you killed her?"

Nogrod put the kettle on and turned around.

"You Lalaith have strong credentials from Day1 but have made poor judgements after that. But your performance on Day1 looks pretty good indeed. What about you Rikae? You have clearly been under-performing - I'd say. You can do better. I'll be looking forwards to you making your mark here toDay. I mean this is the final Day then and I wouldn't like to help lynching you without any reason to do it."

The water was about to boil and Nogrod added some cloves, cardamon and ginger to the grinded coffee-beans and poured the almost boiling water on them. "This will just take a moment..."

He took some cream from the fridge and whipped it with some ground cinnamon and cane-sugar and when he was ready he poured the coffee into three cups adding some of the whipped cream to top the cups. Then he poured in a tiny amount of blended whisky in every cup using a spoon to get it down into the mixture.

"We'll be awake with this thing. Now let's talk."

[Rikae]

Nog, I haven't trusted you from the beginning and, if I failed to vote you after your performance last night, I would be utterly irresponsible. Lal, if you're the wolf, well done - Nogrod, I'll give you a chance to change my mind, if only to "make things interesting", but I'm 99% certain I'm voting for you.

It's plain and simple - it was a bold plan for your wolfish self, and you probably thought you had a chance of talking your way out of the noose toDay, but if you were innocent you absolutely would have known better than to arrange that triple-lynch yesterday (and if you wouldn't, well, you should have).

[Rikae]

Hm, I just actually thought of a fairly good reason for Nogrod to have arranged the triple-lynch. It is - I'm not sure how to say this, but sort of a meta-reason, and I might, even agree with it. But still... argh. If he did so with evil intent and I let him get away with it...

[Rikae]

Well? Is anyone else here?

Nogrod, what do you have to say for yourself other than "my plan misfired badly", eh?

Lalaith, what are your thoughts?

[Nogrod]

After sitting into to the armchair he used to sit in Nogrod took a few careful sips from the hot coffee and then filled his pipe. It was silent.

"Okay, if you're not wishing to talk let me begin it then. Well, as some people have noted I had no other choice on Day1 but to vote Fea there. And I was happy to do that seeing my suspicions were looking like true. But I can hardly claim that as a "proof" of my innocence even if I'd like it. Okay, had I been a wolf I could have pretended I missed the vote with one minute or something... Sure. But that's hardly fitting my line. So no special defence there.

On Day2 I misjudged between Inzil and Shasta looking at Inzil as a more productive person with whom we could think ourselves through and not being forced to roll a dice - like with Shasta who to the bitter end refused to talk for real.

YesterDay we had the three most suspicious people rounded up one minute before the deadline and I though we might end all this misery with it lynching all of them and leaving us four innocents alive (Nerwen included). Well I was wrong with it as Nerwen is now dead and three innocents lie dead out there... and one of you is the last wolf..."

Nogrod puffed his pipe and thought about the matters around.

"I feel like between the rock and the hard place right now. On the other hand you Lalaith have been soo considerate and nice it makes me suspect you; on the other you Rikae have been out of action for much of this ordeal (and I see you have given us reasons for it) but the time you have spent with us doesn't look too convincing either. But lack of time to ponder these things might as well produce bad decisions - or weird self-votes out of frustration... or whatever.

Anyway. I face a tough decision toDay as I want to get out from here alive. Now please open your mouths for discussion and not only for the coffee..."

EDIT: X'd with three Rikaes...

[Rikae]

Our three most suspicious people? Surely the possibility that none of them was a wolf must have occurred to you, and how does the certainty of killing at least two and possibly three innocents, without giving any of them a chance to talk and give us evidence for or against themselves, would help us?

Only if you were thinking of the secondary goal of keeping things interesting would your actions make any sense whatsoever.

[Rikae]

Argh, double posting again, but - perhaps a Lalwolf would have more reason to expect Nog and I to vote for each other, than a Nogwolf would to expect the same from Lal and I....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nogrod, what do you have to say for yourself other than "my plan misfired badly", eh?

Well, on top of what I said already let me elaborate...

We had three suspicious persons yesterDay - as all others had some kind of backing of not being suspicious (well that actually didn't include you Rikae as you had left us no record whatsoever - whatever the reasons but that was the fact). With the last minute I realised we had all those three under a lynch and thought we could make it lynching all of them and thus ending this misery. Surely I took the chance there. And I was wrong with it.

But you were wrong with Autume as well as Lalaith was. Or, well, either of you were making it safe and sound with knowledge.

Looking at Lalaith's vote on Day1 I can't help suspecting you more than her - as you just don't have the record to show.

But I'm afraid of her self-assuredness, agreeableness and softness - which in other situations would be reasons to love her. So let's not make this you against I which will be decided by Lalaith. She might be the rotten apple as well so why to hand the decision to her alone?

Or are you trying just that? Trying to make her believe in your case against me to win alone?

EDIT: X'd with two Rikaes...

[Lalaith]

Well, good morning people. I am quite surprised to be still alive...although quite frankly the way I feel this morning I'm not sure if I *am* alive. I took a few recuperative stiff ones after yesterday's massacre...and I must say that even if I do make it through this "lovely week in the country" I'm not sure my liver will....where's that coffee?

Well I do very much appreciate this java, Nogs, excellent as usual....but I was dismayed by that that triple lynch decision - that was a high risk strategy, one that has turned out to benefit the wolf, and it makes me worried about you.

It is useful, I suppose, that the two people I have to decide between are people I know quite well from the Downs. Well done to whichever one is the wolf...neither of you have seemed at all wolfish to me until now.

So which one? I have to say that by elimination process, my fellow bon viveur Nogrod is my chief suspect at the moment. Not just that triple lynch - also your voting record has not contained anything to convince me of your innocence.
Rikae - your voting record is of course strangely blank - but I just can't square this triangle - I can't believe that a wolf-Rikae would be so nonchalant.

[Rikae]

Am I making a case against you? I think you made the case against yourself quite well yesterDay. It's interesting you say we were both "wrong" about Autume... indeed, we were probably both "wrong" rather than "knowledgeable". You correct yourself but leave it in - why? You think it's a good defense... "you were both wrong, I could be innocently wrong too"? - the main point is not that you were *wrong*, but that what you did was an unnecessary risk which reduced the amount of evidence we could go on by ending things prematurely... as you should very well know. As you most likely do know.
Also, of course I hope Lal will vote for you - as it seems to me that's the only chance for a village win.

IF you pulled all this to liven things up, nice work. And yes, I haven't given much to go on, and yes, I'm an excellent target for you (or Lalaith) toDay because of it - which is, most likely, why I'm here.

EDIT: Crossed with Lalaith

[Lalaith]

Okay, had I been a wolf I could have pretended I missed the vote with one minute or something... Sure. But that's hardly fitting my line

Well that's the thing...you could have said that but we probably wouldn't have believed you, you are too sensible and focused and those of us who know you, know that.

perhaps a Lalwolf would have more reason to expect Nog and I to vote for each other, than a Nogwolf would to expect the same from Lal and I....

Rikae - I've already tried myself to ponder the Nerwen kill to see if it will help me figure things out between you two, and I can't make it work...which ever way you cut this cake Nerwen was probably the most sensible option - she was the one of us whose voting record made her the least likely wolf.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Rikae - your voting record is of course strangely blank - but I just can't square this triangle - I can't believe that a wolf-Rikae would be so nonchalant.

Yes, and the fact that Nogrod seems to disregard what should be obvious to him, too... he knows me well enough to know better, I think. It may not be a fair thing to base my decision on (I really should have been more helpful, after all), but I'll have to use everything I can to make this decision, since everything rests on it.

EDIT: X'd with Lal again

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Our three most suspicious people? Surely the possibility that none of them was a wolf must have occurred to you, and how does the certainty of killing at least two and possibly three innocents, without giving any of them a chance to talk and give us evidence for or against themselves, would help us?

Listen to yourself talking here... YesterDay you agreed that Eönwë, Nessa and Autume were the most suspicious people around. Surely I thought there were a possibility of none of them being a wolf but it was a few seconds decision and the chance of them all being innocent looked slight indeed according to what we had discussed (or whom we had been able to kind of "deduce away" from suspicion) - and looking at all those we had suspicion about were getting lynched I thought it a good idea to check it once for all. Pretty good chances of getting ourselves alive out from this nightmare as they were the ones we all suspected. I really thought we would make it by that. Sadly we didn't...

And interestingly you Rikae were left with the "survivors" because of your potential, not because of your deeds...

Edit: X'd with Rikae & Lalaith...

[Rikae]

Just because I thought they were the most suspicious people doesn't mean I thought it was a good idea to eliminate the possibility of any further evidence which might lead us to the final wolf with more certainty! Surely you can understand that? It's only in the interests of the wolves to act with less evidence when you could wait until you have more.

As for why I am a survivor, I assume you were the one who made that decision, then? I was never in much danger of lynching, so you can only mean that you left me alive last Night...?

[Rikae]

If I didn't know better, I would say there was a cobbler around.

[Rikae]

Seriously, Nogrod, it's like you're begging me to vote for you. If you're innocent, I suggest you try a little harder to convince me of it, since, I assure you, if I vote wrong the wolves will win (if it were otherwise, I would have voted already).

[Nogrod]

"Okay ladies, kill me... but one of you dies because of it. And will regret it."

Nogrod puffed his pipe slowly but enthusiastically...

"If these be my last pipefuls let me enjoy them... I see the situation but it's hard to say which one of you is riding with the other's suspicions... At the moment Lalaith looks worse like chorusing but I may be wrong. She really let Fea alone on Day1 and that I think counts. But my gut reaction right now is that Lalaith follows Rikae's suspicions and just loves the situation wheere she can choose whom to vote just looking at us arguing together.

But it's also possible you Rikae have been affirmative enough as a baddie to convince Lalaith and smile right now. Who knows?

Anyway I'd wish to see more points - also between you two - I mean just for your health why not look at each other as well? Heh, Rikae, why are you so one-sided? Because you have a clear goal here while we do not? Lalaith, why do you love to accept any cause that points away from you? Don't you realise that a wrong decision toDay will mean the end of the other innocent as well - or do you indeed realise it to well?

Believe it or not I suspect Lalaith now more than you Rikae... She's too smooth to be innocent. An innocent would be bewildered as you are - or as I am. But she's perfectly collected and fine.

What I should do?

EDIT: X'd with a few Rikaes...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Believe it or not I suspect Lalaith now more than you Rikae... She's too smooth to be innocent. An innocent would be bewildered as you are - or as I am. But she's perfectly collected and fine.

That's true. However, Lalaith is calm and collected by nature, I think, and you and I are both quite capable of feigning confusion.

As for Lalaith's supposed failure to helpFea on Day 1, I don't really see it. It didn't necessarily seem, at the time of Lal's vote, that Fea was in real danger. It's not any more necessarily innocent than yours was.

I'm going over my memories of both of you in the last few days...

[Lalaith]

Lalaith is calm and collected by nature, I think, and you and I are both quite capable of feigning confusion.

Well, quite. We are all intelligent adults and we can all put on an act. And yes, I try to have a stiff upper lip about things but don't think I'm any less scared than either of you. This is a very creepy situation to be in, particulary as I have trusted you both up until now. My only consolation is that the wolf - which ever one of you it is - must be pretty scared too.

Anyway I'd wish to see more points - also between you two - I mean just for your health why not look at each other as well?

Actually I'm up for this. We've got time...we can spend some hours looking over the events and weighing up the evidence.

[Nogrod]

"On a second thought..." Nogrod said after puffing his pipe for a while.

"I do think an innocent would be open to any possibilities. Now it's her life at stake, mind you. So your monomaniac style raises some eybrows to be sure Rikae. Were you an innocent you would have to look at both of us others to survive but somehow you have only one goal it seems - to lynch me. And that doesn't convince me of you being an innocent. No, rather it looks like you gamble putting all your eggs to the same basket and wishing Lalaith will buy it. With my quite daring trial to get us alive yesterDay which failed you have a nice chance to try that. Don't you? What would you have done in the similar situation?

I mean an innocent would like to hear as much as possibe and to throw suspicions around evenly to find out who answers them better or worse or whatever. To a wolf it would be enough to convince the other innocent of the other's guilt as that would win her the game.

So sorry, I maybe changing my idea of you being less suspicious... But looking at Lalaith I'm not too happy about it either - surely she pondered the question in principle from both sides but that didn't look too genuine..."

EDIT: X'd with Rikae & she partly overlapped what I said... + Lalaith

[Nogrod]

"Btw. I think you're pretty knoweldgeable of this but I'd still like to remind you of it just in case... If an innocent casts the first vote and has it wrong the wolf will capitulate and win immediately. So hold your horses..."

[Rikae]

Nogrod, of course the innocent-looking thing to do is do appear confused and indecisive, just as you are (rather self-consciously) doing. However, you did something blatantly wolfish just last night. I don't forget so easily, and I haven't forgotten your failure to respond to my earlier comments, either.

There is something about this situation that's giving me a sense of deja vu, though. Three people, one guilty, one pretty much certain of another's guilt, that one undecided, and the third detached. However, in that "memory" the certain one turns out both innocent and wrong. The detached one was guilty.

However, deja vu isn't necessarily right. Nogrod seems to be testing Lalaith's willingness to vote for me, once he sees I'm seemingly determined to vote for him. There was really very little effort to convince me, I thought, more just flowing along with the currents, hoping to see either one of us lynched.

EDIT: X'd with Nog's 2nd statement.

[Rikae]

Of course I'm aware of that... however, I only need to make up my mind. Although (as I've said) I prefer to make decisions after gathering all possible evidence, if I've thoroughly made my mind up before the day is over, I'll vote then.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't forget so easily, and I haven't forgotten your failure to respond to my earlier comments, either.

Would you be so kind as to tell me which questions I have not answered. I'd be happy to do that. Or is this just a tom-foolery? I think I have addressed the most important questions you have made.

However, deja vu isn't necessarily right. Nogrod seems to be testing Lalaith's willingness to vote for me, once he sees I'm seemingly determined to vote for him. There was really very little effort to convince me, I thought, more just flowing along with the currents, hoping to see either one of us lynched.

Surely as an innocent I'd like to see the wolf lynched (either of you)! But your "seeming determination" is just the thing that makes me worried about you Rikae! A wolf can play thus but an innocent can't!!!

[Lalaith]

One thing that did trouble me just now, Nogs just explained what he thought an innocent person would do,

be open to any possibilities

He then ostentatiously is just that - says he thinks Rikae is most guilty-looking, then says he thinks I am, then goes back to Rikae again...

But anyway...when you say "calm and collected" I am flattered; the truth, I confess, is in fact "too hung-over to speak or think properly".

I have to go to rest now and I will return in a few hours. I trust no decisions will be made in haste. Au revoir.

[Rikae]

I think I often have a tendency to... overestimate people, somehow? I don't mean that in an insulting way, but if someone impresses me as being intelligent and then does something I consider foolish, I suspect them of evil intentions rather than considering the likelihood they simply made a mistake.
Perhaps that tendency is leading me astray where Nogrod is concerned, here... plus, it's generally a good rule of thumb that pleasant-seeming, uncontroversial types are the most dangerous.

Also...

well, it seems to me our hostess might want a certain balance to her wolf team. Lalaith, Inzil and Fea create just that - their styles are different enough, whereas Nog and Fea are perhaps too similar, in the sense of being more talkative and dominant. I don't know...

On the other hand...

Nogrod, I pointed out that your little scheme yesterday left us no chance to gather more evidence, and asked if you hadn't thought of that. (Another thing I just remembered - you asked me, earlier, what I would have done. What do you mean? In what situation?) Also, you'd like to see the wolf lynched... either of us? Eeeeh... if you were innocent, may I remind you, a specific one of us would be the wolf... and your choice would be of the utmost importance.

At any rate, rest assured - if I was really certain about you, I'd vote. Only a wolf has much reason to wait for others to vote first.

EDIT: X'd with Lalaith

[Rikae]

Also, why exactly can't an innocent? I started the day (actually, ended the day yesterDay) strongly suspicious of you, and that because of your actions.
A wolf in this situation would be wise to fan the flames of suspicion between the two innocents - burning bridges to one by attacking them right off the bat would be a riskier strategy than feigning confusion. Of course, all this "what would a wolf do" is a bit nonsensical - any one of us is capable of using either strategy. You're thinking too simply (deliberately or no) if you're comparing my actions to what a generic wolf would do in a situation like this... the question is, what would you, Lalaith or I do as wolves on this particular situation?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Only a wolf has much reason to wait for others to vote first.

Agreed...

And I do appreciate your ponderings there looking at what you have said earlier...

Nogrod, I pointed out that your little scheme yesterday left us no chance to gather more evidence, and asked if you hadn't thought of that. (Another thing I just remembered - you asked me, earlier, what I would have done. What do you mean? In what situation?) Also, you'd like to see the wolf lynched... either

of us? Eeeeh... if you were innocent, may I remind you, a specific one of us would be the wolf... and your choice would be of the utmost importance.

Okay, I'll explain it one more time. Let it be the last time.

YesterDay we were seven people. Of those Nerwen looked very good (giving the last vote to Inzil and lynching him on Day2) and Lalaith as well (leaving Fea into trouble on Day1 by introducing a new candidate for lynching when Fea already had two votes - and a bunch had one + McCaber was tied with her in two votes). I know I'm innocent myself so it left you Rikae. And as I know you had problems I thought you should be given a chance to show your qualities to whatever lord you serve.

That left me (us indeed as you agreed with the list as well) with three suspects: Nessa, Eönwë and Autume. Now they al had two votes at the DL and I had to make a decision. The probability that one of them was the last wolf looked to me about 95% (with the only exception of you possibly being the last one just sadly not being able to take part in the game) so I decided to let it be and get us four out of this mess alive.

I mean I couldn't guess which one of them three it was but being presented with a possibility to do away with all of them was just too good a deal to refuse. We would be going home after that.

But it was not to be. Either you or Lalaith is the last wolf and I was wrong - and another one of you about so. Only the wolf amongst us was happily smiling there when the results were given.

So I was thinking of survival over the evidence - well what evidence are you able to gather from Autume (or Nessa or Eönwë)? If they are the three probable wolves let's get it with them and live...

So asking "what you'd have done"? Well quite exactly "what you'd have done had you been there at the last minute"? Would you have chosen one and let the wolves do a kill by Night - and then leaving us into a situation of yet another choice between many of whom we can only throw a dice - and let the wolves kill once again with precision? And again?

There is a difference between the lynches and Night kills. The lynches are made by us all (and we can kill wolves that way), the Night-kills are made by the wolves (and never kill a wolf). So let's hail lynches and try to avoid chances for the wolves to decide who gets killed...


And yes, of course my decision will be of utmost importance, it will be the most important vote there is - alongside the other innocent's vote. That's why I feel frightened by your one-sided attack on me thus far. It looks like a wolf wishing to press her point on the other innocent more than a real innocent wishing to see the situation and ponder it for real, seeing the possibility of disaster if she got it wrong. The wolf could go for it trying to lynch one but an innocent needs to consider both options...

EDIT: X'd with Rikae

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

A wolf in this situation would be wise to fan the flames of suspicion between the two innocents - burning bridges to one by attacking them right off the bat would be a riskier strategy than feigning confusion. Of course, all this "what would a wolf do" is a bit nonsensical - any one of us is capable of using either strategy.

I'm not sure you're right in here. It all depends... But the goal of the wolf in this kind of "threesome" is quite clear. Assure one to vote the third. Not that more complicated.

And I can see you both doing that in the early hours of the Day. Now I just need to decide which one of you did it purposefully and who I'd need to make reconsider. That is simple as that. The wolf needs one vote in her favour and that's it. So she needs to be nice and uncontroversial looking at others run to each other's throaths and pick the results from outside or then be firm and agressive to gain a vote for her favour from the third party (Lalaith has fitted the first description and you Rikae the second). So how do I differentiate between you two?

You're thinking too simply (deliberately or no) if you're comparing my actions to what a generic wolf would do in a situation like this... the question is, what would you, Lalaith or I do as wolves on this particular situation?

Well looking at it from this angle Lalaith indeed looks suspicious: so calm and gathered - and how nicely she behaved towards me earlier in this ordeal we've all gotten through. And now she looks like ready to vote either one of us whoever either of us votes first... like she has the choice now - presuming we vote for each other as she looks to think.

I don't like that composed presence she has here right now. I'd really like to hear more from her.

But neither am I trusting you at the moment Rikae. Sorry, but I just can't.

Happily there are something like 20 hours to decide. Maybe some sleep - or some discussions - will help me / us to make right decisions.

[Rikae]

What would I have done? Certainly voted for the one I found the most suspicious, which would have gained us one more day to discuss and gather evidence before it was the last day. With hindsight being 20/20, that may not have been better, since it could have (if I calculate right) ended up with the three of us plus one of those "most suspicious" ones on the last day, but we would have another day's discussion and voting behind us now.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

With hindsight being 20/20, that may not have been better, since it could have (if I calculate right) ended up with the three of us plus one of those "most suspicious" ones on the last day, but we would have another day's discussion and voting behind us now.

Right you are, but think about the situation...

So let's say I had voted for Eönwë. Nerwen would have been killed last Night anyway (obviously as she was that innocent-looking; killing Inzil). So it would be you, me, Lalaith, Autume and Nessa. We would probably have lynched one of the two last ones with no better clue the next Day - and then the last wolf would have killed me, or one of you two - which one is not the wolf.

So on the next Day we'd have one of Autume/Nessa and two of us remaining now. So what's the next move? We/you choose Autume/Nessa - and that is a miss as we know now. So it ends up with us losing the game in favour of either of you two...

Not a great scenario.

[Rikae]

That was what I was thinking, but we can't be sure we would have voted that way - especially since the Eonwe/Autume/Nessa trio was suspicious more by default than anything else, and Nessa and Autume seemed to be just getting more involved at the time, too. I lacked stronger suspects at the time, but that may have changed at a later date.

[Lalaith]

This is very difficult. But I turn for inspiration to a very great detective, who declared that “when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth". I said I would analyse the evidence, and here it is.
Day one –
Nogrod – is busy – there’s a lot of posts to go through. Wants to kill the careful and quiet ones. But then is worried about Shasta for being too busy. Note - this is odd. “likes” Inzil but nonetheless has a bit of a to and fro with him. Later complains about the talk being unproductive and there not being any suspicions, but doesn’t give up any suspects himself at this stage. Then he says he has been suspecting Rikae and Fea, but Boro challenges him on this and asks where. I can’t see it either. Gives a summary where he calls Fea ‘creepy’ but still feels positive about Inzil. Looks at this point like his biggest suspect is Nessa but then he likes her response so seems to backtrack. Does not vote until after McCaber’s reveal when he naturally goes for Fea.
Rikae – comes in and does her drunken rum thing. Mentions Shasta, Steve (who he?) and Pitchwife. Inzil picks up on something she says about chainsaws, but it’s all a bit random. That is the one thing we hear from her on Day One – she does not vote. Nogrod later calls this an underwhelming performance and I agree.

Day 2
Nogrod is busy again! He says he was ‘right’ about Fea. Hmm....I’m not sure that the suspicions he voiced on day one amounted to a categorical accusation. Isn’t quite as confident about McCaber as I would have liked, but he does say that McCaber should at some point give up his innocent dream...his reason however is that we might otherwise lynch them by accident. (He doesn’t mention the fact that it is useful to have a trusted innocent to listen to). Speculates about Boro’s vote for Inzil. This is an interesting point and could be taken either way. Also there is his analysis of Inzil’s vote, which (in retrospect) seems risky speculation if Inzil is a fellow wolf. But...he analyses all of us pretty closely and it would look odd if he didn’t do the same for Inzil. Interestingly, at this point he is much less happy about my Day One vote than he later seems to be. He then goes for Shasta, and tells everyone to talk...
He comes back to decide that McCaber, Inzil, myself are least suspicious and that he will also wait for Rikae and Nerwen to participate more. Then talks about the remaining four suspects and appears to be hovering towards Nessa again, or maybe Shasta. He defends Pitchwife, four minutes before deadline, but also Inzil. Then seems to get upset by the way voting is going (not sure why?) and goes for Shasta. It’s hard to read all this because so many posts are bunched together, but I suppose one interpretation is that a wolf-Nog could not suddenly vote for Pitchwife without having voiced suspicions. His vote for Shasta could be an acceptable ‘third way’ to save Inzil. Or there is the innocent interpretation, that he simply suspected Shasta.
Rikae – she comes in to say that she mistrusts Pitchwife, Eonwe and Nogrod. Her appearance is welcomed by Inzil. She then says she’s surprised that no-one has gone over yesterday’s votes (although in fact Nogrod has already done so). She concludes that Nessa, Eonwe, Pitchwife and myself are suspicious. She doesn’t find the non-voters suspicious but this may be a joke. She is herself a non-voter again.

Day 3
At this point there are no known wolves to analyse interaction with.
Nogs spends a long time looking through McCaber’s posts, trying to find an innocent. He fails to do so. He then goes over the votes, in less detail than the previous day, and includes his own. “choosing Shasta for Inzil because the latter would be playing” – that doesn’t make much sense actually. Narrows his list down to Nessa, Eonwe and autume, exonerating Rikae because he wants her to participate more. He seems to be drawing the same conclusions I did about Eonwe, but less firmly. He worries about a mix-up of mine about voting times. Later, he defends himself for defending Inzil, and has the same suspect list as Rikae – Autume and Eonwe. Then he gets worried about Nessa, having earlier said that she should be left alone. Then two people vote for her (Nessa) making it a draw. Nogs decides to leave it as a three-way lynch.
Rikae – insists that she would be ‘ashamed’ to win as the kind of wolf she would have been in this game. Is now participating more, analyses everyone, (although she never produces her promised Day 2 analysis) messes around a bit and comes down to the same suspect list as Nogrod. What happened to her earlier suspicions of Nogrod himself? Narrows things down to Autume and Eonwe, tosses a coin and votes for Eonwe.

Well, I found that very time-consuming and annoyingly not all that helpful for me to make up my mind. I can see why I trusted you both. On the surface, it would seem that Nogs has slightly more points in his favour than Rikae. But I am still inclined to think about Rikae’s failure to participate in the early days as a very strong point in her favour. And I just don’t like that triple-lynch.
So, back to today...
Day four – we are three. Both Nogs and Rikae are very vocal – arguing with each other - both are scaring me.
Rikae declares right away that she is almost certainly going to vote for Nogrod. However she is clearly contemplating the option of me being the guilty one too. This is a point in her favour because I had already indicated I was more likely to vote for Nogrod than Rikae...so if she was the wolf then she could probably risk just going for Nogs right away and I would follow suit. It looks like she is genuinely looking for the truth.
Nogrod is going from one to the other. If he is the wolf he is of course in the tricksy position of trying to persuade Rikae to vote for me, while also trying to keep me on side, so that I will vote for Rikae rather than him. Of course, if he is innocent then this could also work, he is genuinely searching for the guilty one.
This is not a situation I have ever been in before. I feel like I am tying myself up in knots, trying so hard to be fair. There is evidence, and there is instinct. From what I know of you both, the Nogrod of this Cottage could be a wolf, but the Rikae of this Cottage is a much more unlikely wolf.

I have spent much too long on this and have made myself late for Other Things. I will return later.

[Rikae]

Steve = Eonwe.

As for Day Two analysis, I went through it all in my memory but didn't find anything in particular worth saying - it seemed as if others were saying the same things I would have.