WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[Farael]

I have little to add about today's happenings. I still don't like Rikae (game-wise), Loomy is looking a little flip-floppy... as usual, so no problem there ... and Morm's reaction was expectable.

About Valier's death, I'd think that the wolves found an easy target that made a weird seer-like comment and figured that it was a win-win situation. If they nailed the Seer great, if not it'd toss the village in for a spin.

The odds of the Seer finding a wolf on Night 0 are 1/18 right? so I don't think the wolve's kill tonight makes Morm look bad at this stage of the game. Later on we may come back and see it in a different light.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I was here reading but as I said, I don't have energy to write anything new, just a conclusion: after all I have read, up to Volo's post now above me*, I still stand behind all I said in my post, so it's still valid. These are my last words for now and let me only say that morm's reply, though very, how to say that, intelligent-looking, made me think more that he indeed can be a part of the wolf-clan, prepared to create havoc centered on him with the result left to destiny, either he survives or heroically dies for the pack. It's, let's say, 60% now for me that it is like that (before, it was 50-50 for me whether he is or is not). That's the only change.

*Oh, and yes, I didn't read Farael as it seems to open a whole new topic (also from a totally "new" person), I will do so tomorrow.

Really leaving. Bye.

EDIT: okay, x-ed with Farael. What he says more or less accords to what I think - as you can read above in my post. I like this post of him. Will read the long one later. REALLY leaving. Bye.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Volo

I doubt that Valier was killed for looking like a Seer if morm isn't a Wolf, so in that case it would be just to frame him. Which leads us to nothing.

Volo, could you explain that point? Might be due to my being very very tired, but I don't quite grasp it. And also, what do you mean by "sporty" in that other post of yours? Some advanced werewolf-slang, is it? If so, well I don't get it

Like I said, I'm quite tired now and not thinking very clearly, so I think I'm off to bed.
Good night everyone, I'll come checking as soon as I wake up

[Brinniel]

Is it possible that the wolves thought Valier to be the seer without morm being a wolf? After all, she did give seer hints (particularly the "I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends" sentence) and there's a good chance she had not dreamt of morm, but someone who turned out innocent. If the wolves thought Valier was the seer, she would be a perfect pick...framing morm would be a bonus.

And then there's the discussion of Rikae being furry, which I think is a possibility. Her comments towards Lommy are very accusing and threatening (well, so are morm's but his are more defensive). She could easily be setting up a second lynch candidate here, seeing she's already getting some support. If morm is lynched and turns out innocent, Lommy must be guilty, right? Not necessarily. But that might be what the wolves want us to think. I disagree with what Lommy says; I don't think Valier's death should be the main reason to suspect morm. But I'm not sure her weird analysis makes her wolvish- in fact, what she says is almost too attention grabbing and suspicious looking to belong to that of someone furry.

P.S. I second Green's question. What do you mean by "sporty," Volo? That word can hold a lot of different meanings, I think.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Post 140. My post.

The one where I had a list of each of Valier's posts.

I accidentally hit 'edit' instead of quote when I went to post my opinions.

And then when I finished I hit save.

So I just deleted that post by accident, replacing it with

Originally Posted by me

Why I think Val was killed (based on her posts)
Valier's own words (chronologically):

Lynch the loud.

Day one is irksome, given lack of useable evidence.

She's innocent.

Morm is sketching her out by being quiet--
--isn't acting like himself--
--without excusing the change--
"I tend to believe that he has some hair up his sleeve."

She's innocent.

Morm's sketching her out--
--but she doesn't have evidence, just a feeling--
--she might not be right, but she'd rather find out through lynching morm--

Don't kill her, her feelings are sure to find at least one wolf.

She only has her instincts as 'proof.'

"Tomorrow is another day and if I survive till then it will be all the brighter"

And then she votes for morm.

---

Okay.

So I think the wolves killed her to frame morm, like I already said.

But I also think they probably killed her because of how plainly she was expressing her confidence in her gut reactions. Because we all get whims, you know? And we'd like to think we're right. But she said outright that she was sure she was going to discover a wolf.

And whether or not she did discover a wolf, that statement ("I AM going to find you" instead of "so I think I might be right") would be an eye-catcher.

So pretty much I agree with Legate saying

Quote:
the wolves said "Look, probably a Seer" (and even if she isn't, why not to try).
and

Quote:
Other possibility, likewise probable - morm is not a wolf, but the wolves noticed an opportunity to pass the guilt on someone else. Why not? Solving two problems at once.
So yeah. I think Valier died not because she'd nailed a wolf but because the wolves had a two-birds-with-one-stone philosophy.

At least that's what makes the most sense to me.

I suck.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Little Green

Like I said, I'm quite tired now and not thinking very clearly, so I think I'm off to bed.
Good night everyone, I'll come checking as soon as I wake up

Yes, do go away and leave the computer to me... mwahahahaa... And when you come back tomorrow, please explain that loud-thing. I'd be interested to hear your answer.

Farael has a very good point against Rikae. After she had talked about my and Nerwen's "strife" and quite clearly argued against me, she suddenly voted Nerwen. I was quite surprised as I had thought she'd vote me. Now that you brought that weird thing up again, I really think I should have a better look at Rikae for there's certainly something odd about her.

All in all, Farael seems less insane than normal , actually, he's making very much sense, and I don't know if it should make me feel worried or comfortable, but I'm inclined to think him innocent.

Originally Posted by Menel

Also noteworthy is that both Rikae and mormegil have been pointing fingers at Lommy. Conspiracy, perhaps? Of course, it could just as easily be a coincidence.

The idea of a conspiracy sounds a bit far-fetched, but on the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if both of them turned out to be wolves. I need to think more about this...

Originally Posted by Farael

The odds of the Seer finding a wolf on Night 0 are 1/18 right? so I don't think the wolve's kill tonight makes Morm look bad at this stage of the game. Later on we may come back and see it in a different light.

Now that is a bit faulty matemathics. For surely we don't have just one wolf? So it's 4/18 = 2/9 chance.

edit: xed with Brinn and Fea

[satansaloser2005]

I know how you feel Fea. I did that last game and instead of adding a sentence to my post, I erased the original content. I felt so stupid.

And again just now when I went to hit submit and instead refreshed, deleting my entire post. So this is the short and sweet version of my post.

Brinn and Fea, I concur. I think the wolves may have interpreted Valier's post as a hint at her being the seer, and thus decided to kill her in hopes of getting the seer. Fortunately it didn't work, but I can easily see how they could come to that conclusion.

Secondly I think that there are three possible answers to how Morm fits into last night's kill:
A: Morm is a wolf. The wolves took Valier to be the seer and thought perhaps she dreamed of Morm. Thus they needed to shut her up. This could be a double bluff by the wolves, looking like they're framing Morm but actually not, which also constitutes a risk on their part that Morm will be found out and killed.
B: Morm is not a wolf. The wolves took Valier to be the seer and wanted to shut her up before she dreamed of any of them. This is, as has been discussed by Lommy and others, a frame job on Morm by the actual werewolves.
C: Morm's wolfishness is irrelevant. The wolves picked Valier completely randomly.



I don't know which option it is though, that's the tough part. :S

[Kath]

Hmm, this stuff about Rikae looks interesting. I'm certainly more taken with it than the idea that morm is a wolf, which seems a bit forced.

But what I haven't done at all is really look at what's been happening to get it clear in my own head, so you're free to ignore the next couple of lists because really it's for my own benefit!

Votes:
The Might 2 ~ Kath, Might
Lommy 1 ~ Nerwen
morm 4 ~ Valier, Sally, Fea, Menel
Nerwen 7 ~ Rikae, Brinn, Agan, Mac, Greenie, Lommy, Kuru
Valier 2 ~ morm, Volo

The Might voting himself, I don't like it. He saw Rikae do it last game, he knows there are a bunch of players from that game in this one who lynched her and felt bad about having done it based on her odd Day 1 behaviour. He could well be a wolf playing a very bold game.

I'm not keen on morm's reply vote for Valier either. He himself admits it was a bit knee-jerk.

Hmm, the placement of Brinn's vote could be a bit suspicious. morm's on 3 and she votes for the candidate a lot of people are discussing, meaning it's quite likely the rest of the village would follow. Could be a wolf saving a fellow wolf there.

Greenie, why would Nerwen's innocence make Lommy look guilty?

So, what am I thinking?

Guilty:
Greenie
The Might
Brinn
morm

Innocent:
Everyone else (it's a long list!).

There's not much reasoning behind that I know, I'm just trying to get things laid out a bit.

EDIT: Ooh! I thought I accidentally posted this half done earlier but I must have put that ring in instead.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm sorry I'm having to vote so early, but I have to attend our winter show tonight and help take down the set and everything so I don't know if I'll post when I get back or not. And tomorrow I'll be at church and at my house (no internet there sadly) so the possibility of me voting/posting tomorrow (real time of course) is slim. So I'm going with my gut again....

++Morm




Not completely sure about this, but Morm rubs me the wrong way wolf-wise, so I'll take a chance on it.

[Rikae]

Yes, Mr. Twofeet, I absolutely started the accusations against Nerwen, and yes indeed, I think that the way Lommy followed those suspicions looked wolfish. First suspicions with little to go on are frequently more revealing by the reactions of others than in themselves (Roa-hunter and my grandmother, a ranger, once used that tactic to catch a wolf.) If there had been retractable votes, I might have even switched votes to Lommy late in the day -- then again, maybe not, as I'm afraid I'm a bit biased toward people I've played many games with before (gasp!)
I simply have the feeling that she jumped on a possible bandwagon too quickly, and then, when Nerwen was the top candidate, washed her paws of the matter with all that "I have a bad feeling..." business.

Volo, you seem to have completely misinterpreted my suicide in the last game. It meant the opposite of what you think it did.

Well, my top suspect is Lommy, and that's that. Farael is right - we should not suspect him, because he always behaves this way. Thank you for pointing that out to us, Farael.

Oh, I would also like to say this: I'm no longer so sure about Macalaure.

[Meneltarmacil]

Please elaborate, Rikae. What do you find suspicious about Macalaure?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Is it possible that the wolves thought Valier to be the seer without morm being a wolf? After all, she did give seer hints (particularly the "I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends" sentence) and there's a good chance she had not dreamt of morm, but someone who turned out innocent. If the wolves thought Valier was the seer, she would be a perfect pick...framing morm would be a bonus.

I think it's absolutely possible. I find it very odd indeed that people have concocted this whole story of Morm-framing or of Valier seeming to have been "on to" something, when, had she been a seer, she would only have known one role (if she would have known that -- do seers get night 1 dreams in this game?)

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Please elaborate, Rikae. What do you find suspicious about Macalaure?

Well, this might not be entirely fair, but last time he was a wolf (which I found out after I was dead), I told him that the reason he tends to be caught when he's a baddie is that he is too tentative then, whereas innocent Mac is usually very decisive with his suspicions. Yesterday he seemed almost gloating over my calling him innocent, and then he went after Volo in a way that seems almost like a caricature of innocent-Mac.

However, that only raises doubts in my mind, not actual suspicion at this point.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hmm. I've read everything, and not only has there been a lot of discussion on whether or not mormegil is a wolf based on the death of Valier, mormegil's post (posts? I think I only saw one.) seems... off, to me. Desperate, maybe, although I could also read it as a frustrated ordo.

Like I say, I've read everything, and no one particularly sticks out in my mind but Volo. I think I'll go back and look at his posts in general.

[mormegil]

I'm neither frustrated nor desperate. I honestly find it comical that, when Valier was killed, Lommy came on to the scene seemingly screaming that Morm must be guilty! It's comical to me in a sardonic way because the wolves are laughing to themselves right now because the whole day, up to this point, has been spent almost exclusively spent in talking about me. Now I normally love attention but it's rather unproductive at hw much I am getting today. Almost no other possibilities are being explored. I am glad to see that some are looking at others and that makes me think of those (Farael for example) favorably.

Also, what Farael says about Lommy being her normal flip-floppy self is sadly true and that alone is one of the main reasons I always seem to suspect her...so while I still suspect her I must take preconceived notions about her into consideration.

It's also disappointing that nobody has really discussed the votes from yesterday.

Votes:
The Might 2 ~ Kath, Might
Lommy 1 ~ Nerwen
morm 4 ~ Valier, Sally, Fea, Menel
Nerwen 7 ~ Rikae, Brinn, Agan, Mac, Greenie, Lommy, Kuru
Valier 2 ~ morm, Volo

I would suggest that likely there were two wolves in the Nerwen grouping and two out of that grouping. Please understand my point of view, I know that I'm innocent so I base my thoughts upon that. I would think that at least one of the other wolves voted for me and notably one innocent was in the voting for me. Also one innocent voted for Lommy.

So, I have a little idea, I think it's likely that there are two wolves amongst those that didn't vote for Nerwen as it seems unlikely that all four would vote for her. Nicely, two known innocents were not in the voting for Nerwen. That leaves:

Kath
The Might
Sally
Fea
Menel
Morm
Volo

I guess that this is assuming that all four wolves voted...who didn't vote? Shasta and who?

Out of those seven above Kath and The Might seem innocent enough right now though I still don't understand The Might's self-vote yesterday. Thinking again on it...I remember him saying something like "well since everybody suspects me anyway" and then became defensive and voted for himself. I dont' remember him being suspected by everyone so this seemed odd. I will add him to my suspect list. I don't understand Sally and her logic. Fea seems a bit more lost than normal. Menel is one that I never get a good read on and I tend to suspect him based on style of play, similar to Lommy. Volo doesn't sit right with me....In conclusion Sally, Volo and Menel are the most likely wolves our of those seven.

What has been said about Rikae has given me some thought and I am now second guessing my first day innocent card I gave her. I'm not sure who I will vote for and when. I seem to be the only one around and due to Time Zone people won't be one for a while so there won't be much new to review...anyway hopefully tomorrow morning (for me) I will have a better idea.

Edit: Legate was the other one that didn't vote...those that don't vote are highly suspicious in my mind. Enough no votes makes one lynchable in my mind.

[Farael]

Does anyone else find Rikae's answer to my accusation, and her veiled threat (she remarks that I mentioned I am acting the way I usually act) a little suspicious?

True, it's in keeping with her agressive game-persona, but it seems rather flimsy... all this busines about switching her vote to Loomy if retractable votes were allowed sounds like an useless "what if" scenario.

What if's are worth nothing, since it's the word of someone who may very well be a wolf.

Originally Posted by Rikwolf

First suspicions with little to go on are frequently more revealing by the reactions of others than in themselves

That is nice and dandy, however you voted for Nerwen in a game in which you KNEW there were no retractable votes. Your half-baked excuse of what-if is not really doing it for me.

I don't know if I'll be back in time tomorrow for a vote, and I don't quite want to suffer modfire, therefore I have to vote now.

++Rikae

If she turns out to be a wolf, look at Brinniel too... i can't put my finger on it, but there's something about the way they casualy interact without really getting involved with one another that seems off.... they don't quite agree, but they don't quite disagree either... therefore they can always distance themselves from one another at a later point, but it won't look as if they are avoiding each other, which would be a red-flag.

I hope that last paragraph made sense... but do look at Rikae-Brinniel interactions.

[Farael]

To add on my previous remark that Rikae VOTED for Nerwen, I'd like to add this.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, I think if I want Nerwen in the running, I have to do it myself, before adding a new candidate is totally out.

So not only she voted for Nerwen, she WANTED Nerwen in the mix.

[Brinniel]

Umm...Farael, Rikae has withdrawn from the game...

Rikae was actually my primary suspect, but now that she's withdrawn it seems it would be pointless to look any further at her right now. We'll just have to wait until the end of the Day and see whether she is an innocent or wolf.

Anyways, the one other vote has been for morm, who I'm still not convinced is guilty. I need to go back and take a better look at everyone's posts. I admit I haven't done that yet.

[Farael]

Yes, I just noticed Rikae left the game... for some reason that thread appeared as if it had no new replies when I checked the forums.

Guess it's all moot.

Noggie I hope I don't suffer mod-fire if I don't vote today, but I have nothing to go on with and I am not sure if I'll be back before the deadline. I just didn't see Rikae's notice and right now I have nothing else to go on with.

[Farael]

Double-posting 'cos I can't seem to get my thought straight

I really don't like this talk about Morm... I'm not saying he's not a wolf, but it's not good to be so focused on one person, or one situation. Even if Morm IS a wolf, we still have three others to catch... let's not forget about Morm, but let's try to come up with other possibilities. IF we all gang up on Morm, whether correctly orn ot, the wolves will join the massive band-wagon and there'll be less to work with for tomorrow.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Farael

Noggie I hope I don't suffer mod-fire if I don't vote today, but I have nothing to go on with and I am not sure if I'll be back before the deadline. I just didn't see Rikae's notice and right now I have nothing else to go on with.

Don't worry Farael. I'll count your vote on Rikae as it's after all your vote, no problem!

I'd say I would have more of a problem if you asked a permission to retract that one... (in this situation I'd probably grant it but anyway)

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Also, what Farael says about Lommy being her normal flip-floppy self is sadly true and that alone is one of the main reasons I always seem to suspect her...so while I still suspect her I must take preconceived notions about her into consideration.

Flip-flopping may be suspicious, but on the first or second day it's not surprising, as you really don't have much to go on.

Originally Posted by mormegil

It's also disappointing that nobody has really discussed the votes from yesterday.

Votes:
The Might 2 ~ Kath, Might
Lommy 1 ~ Nerwen
morm 4 ~ Valier, Sally, Fea, Menel
Nerwen 7 ~ Rikae, Brinn, Agan, Mac, Greenie, Lommy, Kuru
Valier 2 ~ morm, Volo

We did discuss this. Not a lot, but a bit. The day's not over, so give everyone a little time to mull things over. Although I was admittedly surprised to come back and see Nerwen as the lynchee. Definitely not what I expected, and if Morm does indeed to turn out to be a wolf I'll be giving Nerwen's voters a closer look.

Originally Posted by mormegil

Nicely, two known innocents were not in the voting for Nerwen.

I'm tired so I must have missed it. Known innocents? Where are our known innocents? Unless you mean the two deceased villagers of course, which could have been your intention. Just explain that a bit more please.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That's what I got out of it, Sally; Neither Valier nor Nerwen were in the voting for... well... Nerwen. I guess that sort of makes sense, doesn't it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Alright, I'm not going to be around at the deadline tomorrow, so here's my (albeit short) list.

Leaning Innocent:

Kath
Sally
The Might

Leaning Suspicious:

Legate
Volo
Morm

Can't get a read on:

Everyone else

There's one vote placed for Morm already, and since many more votes are going to be coming anyway, I'll go with my top suspect at the moment:

++ Volo

Good night everyone.

[Thinlómien]

Morm's long post (#175) made me feel much better about him. His calmness, his decreased aggression towards me and his vote-analysis seem clearly the most innocentish stuff that has come out of his keyboard. Even though I know a good wolf is capable of writing a post like that and I know morm's capable of being a good wolf, I'm less sure about morm's guilt. I know it is perfectly possible that the wolves killed Valier even if morm wasn't a wolf, but I still think it a bit more credible that morm's wovisness would be a part of the reasons they ended up killing Valier.

And morm, Legate did vote:

Originally Posted by Legate

Okay, from the above, it looks like not in the slightest problematic fifty or seventy votes for Nerwen, so I am not afraid any longer to vote for her. Even if all of those who said that were wolves and change their votes, well, at least we will know them all toMorrow. To avoid further confusion,

++Nerwen

I think I need to reread again and pay extra attention to morm's posts and yesterday's votes and those I think are slipping under my radar, ie Sally, Shasta, Kath and Kuru.

EDIT: xed with Shasta's two posts

[Aganzir]

Legate dear, that's definitely not how it works at us. But if you are very hungry, well, maybe you can find something from a certain hobbit's place...

I dislike the way Lommy was immediately saying that Valier was probably killed because she left seer hints. While I agree it sounds the most probable, I think we should not ignore other things that might have contributed to her death, like Lommy seemed to be trying to do.

Menel is making me a bit nervous, mainly because of that "why wasn't I killed during the Night?" attitude. I understand if he's used to getting killed early, but the butter thing and "why not me?"... As if he was trying to convince everybody how surprised even he himself was that he wasn't killed.

Originally Posted by Menel

Please elaborate, Rikae. What do you find suspicious about Macalaure?

A good question and worth asking. But. It reminds me of

Originally Posted by Kuru

I was also made very uncomfortable by her...

Quote:
Might you elaborate on that? What helpful or pseudo-helpful have I done that makes you suspect me?

...as if she wants to know what to do differently to cover herself.

It could be interpreted as Menel-wolf having read the thread well and "doing the dirty work" on behalf of his fellow-wolf.

The wolves indeed chose their kill well if we're going to argue the whole day about if Valier's death points at morm's guilt or innocence, the wolves trying to frame him or whatever. It's easy to appear helpful with long posts speculating why a morm-wolf would or would not have killed Valier, and that makes me a little wary about Brinniel, Fea and Volo who did practically nothing else.

Originally Posted by morm

I guess that this is assuming that all four wolves voted...who didn't vote? Shasta and who?

Actually Farael was the other who didn't vote. Legate voted for Nerwen.

edit: xed with two Shastas and a Lommy

[Thinlómien]

My thoughts on you others come here. I only had time to reread yesterDay's posts, though.

Innocentish
Volo - He makes sense. I think he raises arguments a wolf wouldn't raise and his tone and suspicions seem genuine.
Macalaure - Quite often (or almost always) when he's a wolf he seems somewhat tense and un-relaxed and there's something edgy in his manner. All that is missing this time. If Rikae proves to be a wolf, I'd be quite confident he's innocent: she treats him like she would not treat a fellow wolf. (No time to elaborate on that right now. I'll do it later, if Rikae proves to be a wolf.)
Farael - Reasonable and innocently calm, raises good points and jokes in an innocentish manner. Right now, I have no reason to be troubled by him.

A tiny bit innocent-ish
Legate of Amon Lanc - There's nothing in his posts that seems particularly suspicious to me. His relaxed, calm and somewhat joking manner seems quite genuinely innocentish. Why he doesn't belong to the "innocentish" category, though, is that I have a nagging bad feeling that he really isn't as innocent as he seems.
Shastanis Althreduin - Now there is definitely not much to go on, but I doubt he would be that uninvolved as a wolf. There's nothing that'd make my wolf-spotting radar beep in his posts or manner. I think I need to see more of his posts to be surer, though.

Gray zone
Feanor of the Peredhil - There really isn't much to go on. She seems somehwat distant, playful and rational all the same time and I really can't say anything about her before she makes the post about her feelings she promised to make.
Aganzir - Generally, she feels quite rational and sincere, but she makes some vague comments like "Considering Valier herself, she looks quite neutral to me. However, if a certain person(s) turned out to be a wolf, I'd look at her very carefully" and odd comments like that I seem to be protecting and warning Greenie.
Meneltarmacil - He seems quite sincere and doesn't send out the wolvish vibe he usually does as a wolf. On the other hand, I really don't like he repeatedly talks about the wolves eating him. If he had said it once, I would have no issue with it, but twice and with such an overreacting tone is a bit too much for me to overlook.
Kath - Otherwise, she seems and feels innocentish, but I really don't like her yesterday's vote. It seems a bit forced.

Slightly suspicious
Satansaloser2005 - Now, she seems be just joke and be in-character while making a few serious points, just enough to maintain a presence. I don't like some of her comments like "By the way, great posts today!". I don't know, I really can't reason this very much but I have a slight bad feeling about her: I'll be watching her more closely.
Brinniel - Her first post still strikes me as wolvish. Her other posts could be either way.
The Might - The more I think of it, the less I like his self-vote. It seems like something he would have done as a wolf (since Rikae did it as an innocent in the last game). Also, his notable lack of suspicions seems a bit wolvish too - of course it's difficult for a wolf to come up with suspicions and newbie wolves often make the mistake here. All in all, I'm not very convinced of his guilt, though. He needs to be watched.
Kuruharan - He has chosen a playing style that is very convenient for a wolf. There's something suspicious in his overall tone and I can't really see why did he vote Nerwen, not me, yesterDay. There was no threat of a double-lynch in the air anymore when he voted, or so I see it.

Suspicious
Mormegil - Everything that I've said of him and Valier's death. His manner is somewhat suspicious as well (but I don't know if anyone should take that as a serious argument from me as I always seem to find his manner suspicious).
A Little Green - Like I said, I don't like the tone of her first few posts and her latest seemed quite wolvish. There's something very fishy in her overall manner.

It is quite useless to read and make conclusions of Rikae's posts as her role is to be revealed soon.

EDIT: xed with Agan

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hmmmmmmm. I have read everything but I probably don't have anything constructive to add to the discussion right now. The best thing I can do now is to ventilate the thoughts that go through my mind on everyone:

GREEN ZONE

Farael
Lommy
Volo

YELLOW ZONE

Brinniel - like I said earlier, seems okay. Though in the last game, she seemed okay to me and was a wolf. In fact, I got similar feelings about her as I get now. But there is nothing more to support the fact.
Fea - seems trying to look helpful or simply does what she does, and there is nothing particularly suspicious about her now.
LG, though the more I read the more I am getting paranoid about her. But that's not my fault, that's how some others still speak about her...
Macalaure - where is he, anyway?
Shasta. There is very little to be gathered about him. A little out-of-game note: I once again realised that I am thinking of him as about female. And that goes on and on even though I repeatedly noticed that and tried to do something with that in about four or more earlier games. Please Shasta, do you mind if I call you differently, because Shasta and Shastanis still both seem like female names to me. Could I, for my personal purpose, call you either Shastan or Shast? I know it both sounds horrible, but it will help me much. And you can pick the one you like better

ORANGE ZONE

My lovely wife Ah heck, she's in fact almost in the yellow zone, just there is something in the way she posts... that makes me feel uncomfortable.
Kath makes me feel somewhat uneasy.
Kuru. My suspicion about him from tomorrow still lasts. Where is he toDay?
Meneltarmacil - as it was mentioned here, maybe he's a little overdoing that with his "Number five is still alive!" comments.
Mormegil Harrybelly - like I said, it's 60:40 now with him that he may be a wolf.
The Might I just made an interesting theory on what behavior he could have adopted had he been a wolf. It was based on the observation of his behavior in the last game. I'd say a wolf-Might could have picked a good innocent horse and follow his judgements, no one could blame him ("I am a newbie and I am not sure, so I follow other people whom I consider wise"). Actually, he said that in one of his first posts, but seemingly he does not do that. Maybe his hope was ruined by my negative response. Nevertheless, it's a theory I thought of when trying to imagine a wolf-Might.
Sally Like I said in my first post toDay.


RED ZONE

More or less waiting to be filled with the person who I am going to vote for.


And Morm, I did vote. I see some kind souls even explained that for me already... But whatever, seems to me that it was not your fault but probably Kath's, since she did not, for whatever reason, place my name in the list of voters, and it looks like you used the list of votes she placed in her post, right? Anyway, here you can see that it's better to see to everything yourselves and not just copy what others post.

[Macalaure]

I have little time now, so here I my thoughts about the most important matters, I think. I have only skimmed today's post so far. I'll be there starting a few hours before the deadline.


1. Why Valier:

1.1. The wolves thought Valier was the seer

1.1.1. morm is a wolf
In that case, they would have killed Valier, because no possible seer should be left alive from a wolvish perspective. They would have sacrificed morm without a second thought, and then morm would be here telling us it was a frame and pointing out its weakness.

1.1.2. morm is no wolf
Same as above, but now they might have had a vague hope people might turn against mormegil.

1.2. The wolves didn't think Valier was the seer

1.2.1. They picked her because she left no tracks to them.
I can't think this is the case. There were better options for that purpose that were not suspected by so many.

1.2.2. They picked her because she is a strong player who was yet undangerous
Possible, but this would mean that all other players who are considered to be strong were on the right track to some degree. Given the way the votes for Nerwen went, I'd say this is unlikely.

1.2.3. They tried to frame morm
I don't think so, because, as morm pointed out, it's a very weak frame.

1.3. Conclusion: I think they thought Valier to be the seer. There seems to be no indication to whether morm is a wolf or not. However, the way he made fun of the possibility that it was a frame seems odd to me. In fact, Lommy's accusation and morm's response to it give me a slight furry-furry taste.


2. The votes

2.1. I said it yesterday and I say it today: I don't like Kath's vote for TM.
2.2. The Might's intention to find out whether a self-vote would have the same effect it had on Rikae in a village of yore makes him look suspicious. It would be a good wolf-survival-tactic.
2.3. Sally votes morm due to a hunch. She adds a fourth name, which would only make sense for a wolf-Sally if neither Lommy nor TM are wolves.
2.4. morm vote for Valier would make sense for both cases, evil and good morm.
2.5. Fea adds a vote to morm. This probably rules out the possibility of both of them being wolves
2.6. Brinn's vote keeps Nerwen in the run. A good move for a wolf if all the others candidates were innocent - or all guilty, but that's unlikely.

Then Kuru and I make comments about a double-lynch and then people start announcing their votes. In hindsight, it was a bad idea to make them do this. From this point on, It was way too easy to hide behind Nerwen-votes (Legate, Lommy, Aganzir, A Little Green and me)

2.7. Of these four, Legate's vote seems most suspicious for me. His vote (after the announcements) manifests the inevitable outcome. It's suspicious how, after seeing many options in his posts before, he turns towards Nerwen very quickly at this point - no longer looking at alternative options any more.
2.8. If Volo is honest about not reading page 3, then his vote for Valier seems innocent. But that's an "if" in there.
2.9. Aganzir and I cross-vote for Nerwen. After Legate's vote, the path to go for the wolves was clear. For both of us this would have been an easy vote if one of us was a wolf.
2.10. Menel votes for morm in a confused manner. Looks innocent.
2.11. A Little Green (are we sure we want to shorten this to Green or Greenie?) adds her vote for Nerwen. Suspicious.

Now Legate pops in with a reminder about double-lynchs that seems overdone. So many people have announced their votes that there was no real risk of a double-lynch anymore. I find this comment very suspicious as it seems to desire to mislead the remaining voters.

2.12. Lommy votes for Nerwen and I agree that this looks suspicious because of her "I hope she's not an ordo". False tears?
2.13. Kuru adds the last one. He's the only one not to announce his vote, which one could interpret in evil and in good ways.
2.14. Non-voters: Shasta and Farael.


Suspicions basing solely on these comments:

Suspicious: Lommy, Legate, morm

A Little Suspicious: Aganzir, The Might, A Little Green, Kath

Unknown: Vo?o (no typo ), Fea, Sally, Farael, Shasta

Innocentish: Menel, Brinn, Kuru


More later.

[A Little Green]

That would actually lead me to suspect the loud ones more than the quiet.

I suppose I'll have to explain that comment a little. What I meant by that was more a response to Aganzir's

Originally Posted by Agan

At least one of the wolves is rather quiet and Valier was considered dangerous as she said we should keep an eye on the quiet ones.

-point. I wanted to point out that Valier also said that it is easier for a wolf to hide behind being loud.

Originally Posted by Agan

But wouldn't it be best to suspect those who look the most suspicious, in spite of whether they're loud or quiet?

Of course. I agree that my comment is somewhat generalised. I hope no one seriously thinks I am counting the posts by everyone with a calculator and vote for the one with the biggest amount of posts.

Originally Posted by Kath

Greenie, why would Nerwen's innocence make Lommy look guilty?

I never said guilty. What I said was more like "I'll have to look through her posts again". What I meant was that I'd have to check through her posts, especially those concerning Nerwen, and see if there is anything in there that hints to her actually knowing Nerwen was innocent all the time. That goes of course for the other Nerwen-voters as well.

Originally Posted by Agan

Quote:
Originally Posted by Menel
Please elaborate, Rikae. What do you find suspicious about Macalaure?
A good question and worth asking. But. It reminds me of
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuru
I was also made very uncomfortable by her...

Quote:
Might you elaborate on that? What helpful or pseudo-helpful have I done that makes you suspect me?

...as if she wants to know what to do differently to cover herself.
It could be interpreted as Menel-wolf having read the thread well and "doing the dirty work" on behalf of his fellow-wolf.

Sorry Agan, but I don't quite follow your logic there.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Well, possibly, but usually wolves are willing to sacrifice one of their own to get rid of the seer ie they do go after seer-like people even if it points back at them.

You see, Lommy, as it happens I have no idea of what wolves "usually" do. Your comment seems somewhat sensible, though.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Mormegil - Everything that I've said of him and Valier's death. His manner is somewhat suspicious as well (but I don't know if anyone should take that as a serious argument from me as I always seem to find his manner suspicious).

PLEASE, WHAT MAKES MORM SO SUSPICIOUS? I still don't get it, despite the various arguments made on a connection between Valier's death and morm's guilt. Also, I don't know if this is an ordinary Lommy flip-flop, but...

Originally Posted by Lommy

Quote:
Originally Posted by Green
Aaaargh someone please enlighten me on what's so overly suspicious about morm? I reread his posts and found nothing too alarming there.
I agree. While he definitely doesn't glow with the light of innocence, he does not seem overtly hairy either.

Lommy, what made you suddenly think morm's manner as suspicious?

Oh dear, this is so complicated. I think I will read through the entire thread and write more after that.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Mac, just a note. If you think my vote was fishy in any way, look at my post #105. A post before, you personally pointed out the danger of double-lynch and I was the first one who asked whether people are going to vote Nerwen and then after me there was the line of others, including you, who confirmed they'll vote for Nerwen.

[Brinniel]

I just spent several hours taking 20+ pages of notes (and now probably won't be going to bed), so now I'm going to post these notes (though more briefly), which are basically summaries of what everyone has said (minus less important points) along with my thoughts (in italics).

I'm a bit exhausted, so hopefully my thoughts won't be too unclear and let me know if I misinterpreted anything. Btw, I'm not analysing every detail because that's just too lengthy. Anyways, beware of flood posting...I'm about to do it:

Analysis of Volo:

Day 1

#13: States quiet will probably be lynched Day 1 or 2. He'd rather lynch quiet ones over the loud ones if he has no good suspicions.

#39: Clarifies that if a loud ordo is lynched Day 1, a quiet will be lynched Day 2 because there's more to analyse about louder players on Day 3. Thinks Legate is too friendly.

#42: Disagrees with Fea: "Day 1s are not for outright assuming that random votes are the best solution"

#49: Wonders if Legate has "waterproof points" or "holds the voice of Saruman." In a response to Legate's comment, he considers voting Valier to see what she is (in the possibility that Green might be evil too, I think)

#116: Votes Valier. Explains in #118 that her vote was too desparate.

#129:Makes a list:
Leaning Good: Lommy, Menel, Mac, Might, Morm
Neutral: Aganzir, Fea, Brinn, Sally, Farael, Shasta, Kuru, Kath, Nerwen
Leaning Evil: Legate, Green, Valier, Rikae

Notes: My suspicions on him yesterDay were more of a hunch than anything. I remember finding his first posts confusing, then he goes back and explains. While Volo seems to suspect Legate so much, he seems to begin considering voting Valier based on a comment he made ("*Notes down: if she [Green] and Valier are the wolves, this would be very good move."). I find it a bit strange that while he finds Legate worrisome, he still seems to follow his word.

Day 2

#154: Lommy is hurrying to understand the wolves- similar to what she did when she was a wolf herself. But he does agree that Valier was probably thought to be seer.

Considers that if Valier was thought as seer, then morm is guilty. Or she was kill because she left no-trails and one wolf is "sporty"

I disagree. Valier left a nice big trail...to morm. Of course, maybe you mean no trails to the wolves. Still waiting to find out what "sporty" means...

#160: Doubts Valier would be killed as a seer if morm is not a wolf. Asks Rikae why she changed her style from the last game (before saying Day 1 was a waste, now saying it's useful). He says he's sure Lommy's been seered upon and doesn't suspect her.

Question: What makes you think that Lommy's been seered upon (I'm assuming you mean dreamt of)? I think it's more likely morm was dreamt of...

Conclusion: While I don't see anything that makes Volo obviously suspicious, I still find some posts a bit strange (which I commented on above). I'm still not sure about him.

EDIT: X-ed with Legate, Mac, Green, Legate

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Volo

I doubt that Valier was killed for looking like a Seer if morm isn't a Wolf, so in that case it would be just to frame him. Which leads us to nothing.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Volo, could you explain that point? Might be due to my being very very tired, but I don't quite grasp it. And also, what do you mean by "sporty" in that other post of yours? Some advanced werewolf-slang, is it? If so, well I don't get it

Oh, I assure you I was at least as tired when I wrote it. But what I meant is this:
Morm is Innocent and the Wolves know it. Valier attacks morm in a way that can be interpreted as an attack by a Seer. But the Wolves know that Valier didn't dream of morm if she dreamt at all. And except that I see very little in her saying that she'd be the Seer. Concluding that the Wolves didn't think of Valier as the Seer.
The problem is that this talk about how the Wolves saw Valier lead to nothing. It is fun to bring your own thoughts about how the Wolves thought when they chose their kill, but I don't see how it can discussed at Day and turn out productive. For the simple reason that the Wolves might bluff, double-bluff, shoot the darkness, plan something very complicated, kill a certain type of player. And the Innocents have no way of knowing what the Wolves thought until the end of game.
Ok, that might have been a bit overreacted, but toDay is concentrated too much on what the Wolves might have thought at Night, it's nearly as unproductive and confusing as the quiet/loud discussion. As Farael already mentioned, by the way.
(I personally think that they chose Valier because she'd leave no trail.)

By "sporty" in meant that they'd rather kill quiet players than players know to be dangerous. I'll try not to say something as cryptic again.


Now at last to what I think about who the Wolves might be.

(There's a list of my preveous suspicions in post #129.)


Sally: Now she sure hunts morm! She constantly flirts with the idea of being a Wolf, which seems like something a Wolf wouldn't do, but it's driving me crazy. I'm capable of imagining a Wolf who does that, even a newbie Wolf - no, especially a newbie Wolf. Sally appologised that she wouldn't be productive, and truly, she hasn't been productive. I'm thinking of she might be a Wolf who thinks of being very far from being lynched - there's not enough try there, as if her appologisive tone is an excuse for just being around.
The more I read her posts, the more I feel that that's our Wolf.

Green:

Originally Posted by Green

Aaaargh someone please enlighten me on what's so overly suspicious about morm? I reread his posts and found nothing too alarming there.

This looks very suspicious. Why would she concentrate on morm so much at that time if they weren't Wolves? Seems very out of place. Instead of "what did I do wrong", a "what did my partner do wrong".
Post #123 is on the whole very suspicious:
1. It feels like Green is voting just because she has to vote and not because she really suspects Nerwen, her reason being rather odd to me (Well, then again I don't really understand why Nerwen was lynched in the first place - although lynching Valier would have been no better ).
2. I'm not completely sure about this, but the way Green turns her suspicion at Lommy in the same post as she votes another person is worrying. I've seen many Innocents doing this, so I can't decide if this should be taken into account.

morm: I haven't looked too closely at toDays posts of his as there simply hasn't been enough time, but he is linked to both of my main suspects and that makes me suspect his as well.


Leaning Good:
Because Legate and Lommy agree with me, I don't think that they are Wolves. If we are wrong, I'll look at them more closely. Both feel Innocent toDay.
Mac
The Might
Fea

I don't have any ideas formed about these at the moment:
Meneltarmacil
Aganzir
Farael
Shastanis Althreduin
Kuruharan

There's something nasty there, I'll see to it when I have the time:
Kath
Brinniel


I'm late for a meeting and I Xd with everything since #188.

[Brinniel]

(Once again, I'm not analysing every single post, only the ones I think are important. Otherwise, everything will just be too lengthy.)

Analysis of Mac:

Day 1

#50: Doesn't see how Rikae could form an opinion on him based on his first post which was completely roleplay. Thinks Nerwen is more tense than she was last game. Volo is suspicious- criticises Rikae then agrees and jumps on the Valier bandwagon.

#59: Doesn't think Volo's reason for suspecting Rikae ("her analysis was not helpful enough") is not a good enough reason to suspect her.

#75: Finds Nerwen continuously defensive. If no one else will suspect Volo, he'll look elsewhere.

#88: A long analytical post:
Innocent or speaks sense: Lommy, Legate, Aganzir, Menel, Might, Brinn, Kuru
No idea: Volo, morm, Fea, Farael, Rikae, Shasta
Leaning Guilty: Sally, Green, Nerwen, Valier, Kath

#104: Thinks Might's self-vote was a "tantrum" - probably innocent

#121: Votes Nerwen

Quite honestly, I don't see anything that alarms me about Mac. He seems to think well through his suspicions and as a wolf, I find him to be a lot more accusing. I'm thinking he's innocent for now.

Okay, from posts #188 and on I'm not going to include in my analysis because I finished before they posted, and I just don't have the time or energy to keep picking apart everything as I go.

EDIT: X-ed with Volo

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Might:

Day 1

#7: Says he'd rather vote for the quiet players.

#10: The quiet ones are more suspicious.

Now it is at these very first statements that causes the controversy. Yet, I find usually the one who starts controversy and grabs attention is innocent. I would almost rather look at those who continued this discussion past its expiration date for any wolvishness.

#53: A defensive post. Doesn't want to vote without proof or explaining reasons.

#69: Thinks people are taking him too seriously. They shouldn't vote for him just because he's out of the ordinary. Doesn't want the same patterns as last game.

Originally, I saw this as suspicious...mainly because of the "don't vote me, because I'm different" statement.

#78: Votes for himself.

I still think the self-vote really did come out of frustration and curiousity. Though, it's always possible that as a wolf he did it knowing people would avoid a repeat of last game. But I doubt it.

Day 2

#139: Says his self-vote was because he wasn't in the mood of getting votes because he was confusing and he was curious if people would actually lynch him. Finds Legate suspicious.

His explanation seems legit. I want to know why he finds Legate suspicious, though.

Conclusion: My opinion hasn't changed. Might is still leaning innocent for me.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Volo

Because Legate and Lommy agree with me, I don't think that they are Wolves.

WHAT??? That's probably the most peculiar argument I've seen this far. Could you explain again, Volo? Unexplained, I definitely find this argument disturbing.

EDIT: x-ed with Brinn

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Sally:

Day 1

#20: Notes that in the last game the last baddie was silent mostly. We should pay attention to when and what people post.

#63: Is reluctant to vote the quiet just because they're quiet. Same reasons for the loud players.

#94: Finds morm fuzzy- a hunch. Doesn't want to see Might die by her hand. Votes Morm.

I'm a little uncomfortable about her vote for morm. I don't like when votes are based only on hunches and nothing else. But still, she doesn't ring any alarms.

Day 2

#167: Agrees that Valier's post could be interpreted as seerish. Could still be thought that way whether morm was a wolf or not. If not, he was also framed. Or Valier could've been picked randomly.

I doubt the wolves picked Valier randomly.

#169: Votes morm

#182: Says she was surprised by Nerwen's lynching. Will look at those who voted her if morm is a wolf.

We should look at Nerwen voters regardless if morm is a wolf. After all, there were seven votes. A wolf is hidden in there somewhere.

Conclusion: Sally is certainly persistant with morm. If he is a wolf, I doubt she is one too. For now, I'm pretty unsure on her.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Fea:

Day 1

# 40: Doesn't think Day 1 psots will have substance. There's nothing to go on since the wolves have nothing to hide.

Like many others, I disagree. But I find nothing suspicious about this post.

#90: Says she'll vote for someone who will complicate things later on if she has no better suspects. Glad to see Might stirring up controversy, though she thinks him more likely innocent.

#93: It's natural for everyone to be defensive

Maybe, but a wolf tends to be more defensive because they get more nervous when suspected. I know from previous experience.

#97: Votes morm, disagreeing with his vote.

Day 2

#140: Thinks Valier was killed to frame morm as well as her confidence in gut reactions.

#143: Posts all quotes mentioning Valier.

#146: Doesn't think morm would kill Valier and finds him innocent.

Well, she certainly seems a lot more helpful on Day 2. Although, she did state back on Day 1 that she would be.

Conclusion: I honestly cannot read Fea at all. So I have no idea at this point.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Kuru:

Day 1

#16: Agree about not picking out the quiet ones. Though the same could be said about loud players.

#54: Suspicious of Might based off his desire to vote a loud/quiet

#66: Morm is talking sense. Lommy talks a lot, is trying to be too helpful.

#76: Valier is looking furry for her defensiveness and vote. But he's still reluctant to vote her.

#102: Finds the newbie/veteran debate less helpful than the quiet/loud one. Nothing should be based on how long someone's been around.

#112: Is inclined to vote for Lommy.

#117: Clarifies that Lommy is not coherent and is self-contradicting.

#127: Doesn't want to vote morm. Would rather vote Lommy but chooses Nerwen.

I'm finding it strange he would vote Nerwen went he suspects Lommy so much. But I suppose that's because he feared a double lynch.

#132: If Nerwen is innocent, someone should look at Lommy.

Conclusion: I find it strange how he makes so many short posts, but perhaps that's just his style. I don't find anything alarming about him, and since he won't be around toDay, I'd rather not consider him for lynching.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Menel:

Day 1

#17: Agrees there's 1-2 quiet wolves. Thinks there will be one wolf who will confuse everyone.

#122: Thinks morm is acting odd. Doesn't like that his reason for voting Valier is because she might get him lynched. Doesn't think Valier is a wolf if morm is. Votes morm.

Day 2

#148: Doesn't think morm would kill Valier, but it could be a double bluff.

#152: Nerwen's wolfish behaviour was actually newbiness. One wolf probably voted her.

I think possibly more than one wolf voted her.

#158: Agrees with Farael that Rikae is suspicious. Thinks it's possible morm and Rikae are wolves together.

Conclusion: Menel seems to quickly jump the bandwagon. First with morm, then with Rikae. Also, I agree with others' comments about him stating that he's surprised to be alive and so on. I've overlooked it because I know he'd been dying early on a lot. But letting everyone know that is a perfect way for a wolf to slide by..