Welcome to Tol-in-Gauroth XI 'Fall of the Fall'

[Holbytlass]

One lay awake listening intently, deer bedding down in the crisp leaves, frogs croaking, neighbors snoring. A smile spread across the one's face, as it got up and went out the door already transformed.

Sniffing the woodsy smell with it's keen nose, it loped to the appointed spot where the other two were waiting. Seeing one another, they laughed rather nervous barky laughs, pleased with the first kill and avoided being killed. True, it was one less person to taste sweet meat from but better he then they. The only downside was the villagers now knowing about them.

The wind whistled through their fur as they debated on who tonight. They chose the safer route and headed for a single home occupied by a single person...

At first light, everyone assembled for the head count. Guts tightened and mouths dried when they came up one short. Running to the bank of the river, they found the home empty, so the search began.

Another scream ripped across the island, this time from the fields. All ran to the spot where one stood frozen pointing to the pile of pumpkins.

On the top, a head was placed. The top of the skull was removed and the eyes, tongue and brain matter were scooped out. It was filled with pebbles and a flickering candle, the melted wax oozing out of every orifice.


*Entertainment value only! No quotes, theories or suspicions will be based upon narration (other than why they killed who they killed). There are no hints and any coincidence is unintentional, if you are seeing them then that means you are desperate and/or paranoid!*

villagers:10
wolves:3

dead
Holby(mod) clawed from wolves night 1
Gil-Galad(Ordinary)shot by firing squad day1
Shelob(ordinary)killed by wolves jack-o-lantern style night2

living
Morm
Perky Ent
Formendacil
Wilwarin
Saucepan Man
Eomer
Arcticstorm
Alcarillo
Abercrombie
Marcolie
Azaelia
Boromir
Cailin

~wolves stop P.M.ing

[The Perky Ent]

...Alas, Another one bites the dust. I was afraid that Gil-Galad was not of the lupine, but as Alcarillo said

Originally Posted by Alcarillo

Even if he turns out to be innocent, we, as Saucepan Man said, will eventually lynch him; and it's better to lynch an innocent today than later when it matters most for the village.

he was doomed. Shelob's death really isn't that suprising, as there were no real suspicions twords Shelob, and the werewolves could get away with it easily. What to do, o what to do!?! TGIPT: Thank God It's Pipeweed Time!

[The Saucepan Man]

I'm very sorry to see Shelob go. Our exchange close to the deadline for voting yester-Day made me think that she was probably innocent. Although it also puts morm in a favourable light, as far as I am concerned.

I suspect that Shelob was killed because she was not high on anyone's suspect list and, having voted for Gil, her death does not leave us with much of a trail.

As for Gil, well it's always sad to see the back of another innocent, but there are worse choices that we could have made.

I am not sure that it will tell us much to-Day but, anyway, here is the voting for yester-Day, in order and showing the state of voting with each vote:

1. Formedacil for Marcolie Lamen (Marcolie - 1)
2. Eomer for Azaelia (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1)
3. Boromir88 for wilwarin (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1)
4. Azaelia for Gil-Galad (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 1)
5. Cailin for Arcticstorm (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 1; Arcticstorm -1)
6. Gil-Galad for SpM (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 1; Arcticstorm -1; SpM - 1)
7. Mormegil for Perky (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 1; Arcticstorm -1; SpM - 1; Perky - 1)
8. Shelob for Gil-Galad (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 2; Arcticstorm -1; SpM - 1; Perky - 1)
9. Wilwa for Perky (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 2; Arcticstorm -1; SpM - 1; Perky - 2)
10. Perky for Gil-Galad (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 3; Arcticstorm -1; SpM - 1; Perky -2)
11. Marcolie for Arcticstorm (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 3; Arcticstorm - 2; SpM - 1; Perky -2)
12. Alcarillo for Gil-Galad (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 4; Arcticstorm - 2; SpM - 1; Perky -2)
13. SpM for Perky (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 4; Arcticstorm - 2; SpM - 1; Perky -3)

Did not vote:
Abercrombie of Rohan
Arcticstorm

I'm off to reveiew yester-Day's events. In the meantime, I would welcome a response to some of the points I raised towards the end of the day yester-Day, particularly from Perky and Abercrombie. I would also like to hear from arcticstorm why he did not vote yester-Day.

[The Perky Ent]

Aren't I the popular one Sorry if I sound idiotic and foolish, Saucy, but what would you like to know? I know I'm high on people's suspect list, so I'd really like to see what I can do to prove i'm not a werewolf (other than getting lynched, though I see that's what several of you were going to do.)

Originally Posted by Saucy

Let's see what happens . . .

What would you have me do?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Perky

Sorry if I sound idiotic and foolish, Saucy, but what would you like to know?

A response to this would be nice:

Originally Posted by me

Perky, I find it hard to square these two comments of yours:

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Perky Ent
If no one has anywhere else to turn, I myself would be intrigued in Alcarillo's defence from Gil-Galad's acusations.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Perky Ent
Once again, Gil shows poor reasoning for acusing Alcarillo of being a werewolf.

I would prefer to avoid cutting off my pipeweed supply, so I would welcome some sort of an explanation ...

[The Perky Ent]

Maybe I do need that deprogrammer!

Originally Posted by The Perky Ent
If no one has anywhere else to turn, I myself would be intrigued in Alcarillo's defence from Gil-Galad's acusations.

It appears that I had scanned past Alcarillo's post, or had forgetten it's existance. I apologize for confusing you, since I believe he already defended it.

Once again, Gil shows poor reasoning for acusing Alcarillo of being a werewolf.

I would prefer to avoid cutting off my pipeweed supply, so I would welcome some sort of an explanation ...

What I meant by that, which I think I had explained earlier, was that his acusation was out of the blue, and didn't have any real facts behind it. It wasn't something like "Johnny the Balrog should be lynched! He keeps giving off hints about fur and claws and himself being a wolf! He's a werewolf! lynch him!" There was no real evidence that could be proven against him. I hope these are satisfactory answers, as I am not the wordsmyth I once was (or never was ).

[The Saucepan Man]

That's all very well, Perky. But I still don't get how you can square backing up Gil's accusation with later using it as a basis for voting for Gil. You accused Gil of making a baseless accusation, and yet it was just as baseless when you earlier judged it sufficiently meritorious as to require an explanation from Alcarillo.

[arcticstorm]

Originally Posted by Saucepanman

I would also like to hear from arcticstorm why he did not vote yester-Day.

Originally Posted by arcticstorm

I do not know who to vote for today since I have no clue as to who could be a wolf.

with that in mind, I will continue to look and judge people's reactions to what people say, and then I will make my final call. Unfortunately that means I will probably have a blank vote today, unless something changes soon.

I had to leave for a few minutes as well before voting closed to go work on something for sunday, and I got back literally 1 minute after voting closed, and had I had time after reading through the votes, I would probably have given my vote to Perky, but I still have no clue as who might be a wolf. I have a little more to go on now and will vote before the end of the day.

[The Perky Ent]

Wow Saucepan Man! You are quite the wordsmith! You sure you're a big beefy lumberjack, and now a lawyer? I even had to look up meritorious. Quite astounding, really. I applaud your inquisition against me, as it is very extensive.

Originally Posted by Saucepan Man

That's all very well, Perky. But I still don't get how you can square backing up Gil's accusation with later using it as a basis for voting for Gil. You accused Gil of making a baseless accusation, and yet it was just as baseless when you earlier judged it sufficiently meritorious as to require an explanation from Alcarillo.

I really can't support myself in the way you want me too. It was the first day, and I know I screwed up. I didn't have a strong case aparently, and I spoke too loud, making everyone suspect me. Anyone else other than Saucepan Man want to know something from me?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Perky

Wow Saucepan Man! You are quite the wordsmith! You sure you're a big beefy lumberjack, and now a lawyer?

Well I get a lot of time to think and mull things over up there in them woods.

Originally Posted by Perky

I didn't have a strong case aparently, and I spoke too loud, making everyone suspect me.

I still do, although your explanation does have a non-Wolvish ring to it. I would have expected a Wolf to have tried to cobble something a bit more convincing together. But perhaps I should not expect the obvious.

It seems to me to be a great shame that Abercrombie and arcticstorm were not able to vote yester-Day, for then we would have seen whether they would indeed have voted for Perky, as they claim they would have done. Had they done so, Perky rather than Gil would have been the village's chosen lynchee. Abercrombie's claim seems the truer to me as she did at least voice suspicions of Perky earlier in the Day, but arcticstorm indicated no such thoughts. Mind you, he didn't seem to have any theories, which is itself suspicious.

[The Perky Ent]

I really wish more people were talking right now. It just seems to be Saucepan questioning my faults at this point. Saucepan Man, I really don't know what to say about you. You seem to be rallying people to your experiment

Originally Posted by saucepan man, after voting for me

Let's see what happens...

and it's starting to make me think of what I posted in the beginning

But at the same time, my brother lived in a far off town, may his soul rest in peace. His town was invaded by a monster of some sort a heard. The monsters turned out to be the people running the investigation against the monsters! It is for this reason, that I also will not trust anyone who seems to be running the show from an omnipotent throne. Everyone is a suspect, but some are more than others.

You just seem to have too much control. I really don't know what to say about you. I can't find any signs in your writing as to who you are, which is most likly due to your being in previous werewolf games. You really are a mystery to me.

I don't think Formendacil has explained yet why he voted for someone out of the blue, after saying he suspected Saucepan and I. I'd like to hear why.

[Boromir88]

Alas poor Shelob, she was a client of mine. I actually had to deprogram her once. Rather sad story, was taken in by a cult and brainwashed to starve themselves. Her parents, now long gone, begged me to deprogram her. Some people say it's an odd occupation, many think it's brainwashing, and in some ways it is, I mean you have to brainwash to undo a brainwash, but tis a sad day.

On to business at hand. I explained many days before that I wasn't going to be around on Friday, hence my quick reply and quick vote. I didn't have much time to think for myself, so I was basically going off of what others were saying, but no more my friends, heres some observations.

Ok, Voted for Perky:
Mormegil
Wilwarin
Saucepan


Voted for Gil:
Perky
Shelob
Alcarillo
Azaelia

Voted for arcticstorm:
Marcolie
Cailin

Voted for Azaelia:
Eomer

Voted for Wilwarin:
Boromir

Voted for Sauce:
Gil-galad

Did not vote:
Abercrombie
arcticstorm

Based off voting from yesterday, I think one wolf voted for Gil-Galad. Shelob is killed, could be an attempt to make those who voted for Gil-galad look innocent. Right now this points to Perky and Alcarillo.

I also think a wolf did not vote yesterday. Yesterday, I took arcticstorm's comment about not wanting to have an innocent's blood on his hands as being a preacher he would naturally not want to have innocent's blood on his hands. But, I must look at this and say it's somewhat suspicious. At some point in time I think you'll have to step out and vote, and you may make a mistake and he/she will turn out to be innocent. Bottomline is, if you don't vote you look suspicious to me, because you aren't assisting in killing these beasts.

I don't find early votes suspicious especially when 2/3 come out and said prior that they would be going and wouldn't be back.

This leaves one more wolf, but I don't got anything too concrete off voting so I'll have to go to the posts...

Mormegil:
Suspected: Formendacil, Wilwarin
Voted for: Perky

Perky:
Suspected: Alcarillo, Mormegil, Sauce, Marcolie, Formendacil, Gil-galad
Voted for: Gil-galad

Formendacil:
Suspected: Sauce, Perky
Voted for: Marcolie

Wilwarin:
Suspected: Eomer, Boromir, Formendacil
Voted for: Perky

Saucepan Man:
Suspected: Perky, Abercrombie, Eomer, Gil-galad, Cailin
Voted for: Perky

Eomer:
Suspected: Formendacil, Azaelia
Voted for: Azaelia

Shelob:
Suspected: Gil, Mormegil, Perky
Voted for: Gil-Galad

arcticstorm:
Suspected: None
Voted for: None

Alcarillo:
Suspected: Gil-galad
Voted for: Gil-gald

Abercrombie:
Suspected: Perky, Gil-galad, Alcarillo, Mormegil, Formendacil
Voted for: No one, but if in time would have been Perky.

Marcolie:
Suspected: No one strongly that I found
Voted for: arcticstorm

Azaelia
Suspected:: Saucepan
Voted for: Gil-galad

Cailin:
Suspected: Wilwarin, Azaelia, Eomer, Formendacil, Alcarillo, Gil-galad
Voted for: arcticstorm

Ok, so what's all this jumbo mean. As I said above, it may be a ploy by the wolves to kill Shelob in order to make a fellow wolf who voted for Gil look innocent. This would point to Perky and Alcarillo

Perky, Abercrombie, and Cailin had rather long suspect lists. Whether this show uncertainty or a wolf trying to stir up the pot and throw out several names I can not tell, but worth being watched.

I too am worried about Abercrombie's "attachment not only to Sauce, but also to me. As I said in my only post yesterday...

I recognize nothing different in Sauce than I have before, so for now, he's fine with me, though he may be using the strategy to get his wolfishness unnoticed.

Though Formendacil's strategy is odd, quick votes, quick suspicions, I doubt a wolf would be so bold on Day 1 as to attract that much suspicion. I think our wolves are hiding and not saying much.

Abercrombie basically reiterates what I said...

From this, what should I think? It appears that SPM is being his usual logical self and I've nothing yet to say against him.

Formendacil's vote while suspicious, is a very risky move for a wolf to make and so I shall not vote for him just yet.

I'm also not sure about the whole point of the recap? I see nothing to take from it except a long post that says what's gone on so far. Though it may be an attempt to help us and give a rundown, if someone wanted to know they could just look.

Saucepan is acting like his usual self, being one of the most helpful around, but since I'm a simple villager I do not trust him and wouldn't put it passed him of him trying to pull something over on us. However, at this point I seem to be thinking along his same lines and as long as his suspects turn out to be wolves and not innocents then I have faith in him.

So right now the names I keep seeing myself typing are:
Perky
Abercrombie

Ones I'm looking to see more from:
arcticstorm
Azaelia
Alcarillo

More will come later, I must be off.

[arcticstorm]

OK,
first of all, I agree with Boromir's assessment that a wolf probably voted for Gil yesterday. Ans with the other two being Perky, Azalia and Alcarillo, it makes for an interesting assessment, if they did not. But let us assume for a second that Perky is a wolf. then we could eliminate Morm, Wilwa, and Saucepan from suspicion probably. It would be too risky to vote for a fellow wolf if there is a chance he is innocent. So I will make a bold statement and say one of these three is probably a wolf, and therefore Perky is more than likely innocent. Yes earlier I did say that I probably would have voted him yesterday, but after having looked a little closer at things, thanks to Boromir and Sauce, I will lean closer to Alcarillo or Azalia. Today I will probably vote for one of them, unless something changes. Furthermore, I would like to point out that would I have voted yesterday, I really had no suspicions. But I had made a random choice in my mind while I was working. I got back to my dismay to find the voting closed 1 minute prior, so I was at least thankful of posting my intentions to not vote yesterday. So right now the top two are Alcarillo and Azalia, with Morm and Wilwa filling the next two spots on my suspicion list.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

Ok, I've given my explanation for my no vote yesterday, but I'll restate it just in case someone missed it. (All times are EST)

I had driving lessons from 6-7:30 in a town not far from mine, approximately a 15 minute drive. Do the calculations and I figured I had about 15 minutes to read and vote. We got to the driving school a little early, approx. 7:21, so I was even more reassured. Then everything went wrong, because when my mom pulled in, about 7:30, she said she had to go and re-schedule appointments and so I began my panic. We didn't end up leaving there until 7:45 and I was in a mad state. Believe me when I tell you that I wanted to vote so badly and I'm terribly sorry I missed it. It's my fault, I should've voted earlier, when I knew I had the time. Please forgive me.

But what's done is done, and I can't change that.

Now, on to suspicions.

Saucepan Man you claimed suspicion of me because I seemed to be following too closely to your suspicions. So tell me, what else choice did I have? It was the first day, I'd never played in a BD werewolf game before, you are a logical leader. I think that there are plenty of other members who would say that you make assumptions that are straightforward and reasonable. That doesn't mean that I trust you, it means that during a time when I was about as indecisive as a person can be, I looked to someone who was, may I remind you, assuming the leadership position with his own knowledge. (If I may be so bold to presume that.)

That's not to say that I had no thoughts of my own, because I was most definitely formulating my own thoughts and opinions during this time and I have been ever since the game started. There are times in my long post, where my thoughts are my own and I do speak from my own opinions. The entire post is my own opinions, I'm actually quite proud to say...

So enough of this nonsense, because Saucepan, you'll either believe my innocence or you won't, but if you want anything else, do not hesitate to ask.

I'm also not sure about the whole point of the recap? I see nothing to take from it except a long post that says what's gone on so far. Though it may be an attempt to help us and give a rundown, if someone wanted to know they could just look.

It was more to get myself organised than anything else, but yes, that is what I was attempting to do (give everyone else a rundown, interspersed with my thoughts).

Quote: Me
In spite of this, I do not not trust Saucepan, because he is too big an asset to the village to lose, but more importantly it just seems a logical step towards weeding out the wolves from the villagers by posting the things that are suspicious.

Quote: The Saucepan Man
You said that you do not trust me because I am an asset to the Village and because I seem to be trying to weed out the Wolves. An innocent mistake - or a Freudian slip?

And Saucepan, wouldn't it be:
If I had said I do not trust SPM, it would mean, that I don't trust you. However, if I said, I do not not trust you it would mean that I do, correct? (I know it's impertinent...)

[arcticstorm]

After another quick glance at Boromir, I would say that we shoiuld take a really close view at Morm and Wilwa,
MOrm's early suspicion of Wilwa and then later vote for someone else may be a wolf trying to play innocent by suspecting another wolf, should she get lynched.

ALso I would like to point out that she pretty much did the same. But who could be their third wolf, definately not Sauce, it would be way too risky, but maybeAlcarillo or Azalia? Or who did she suspect that Morm did not? Boromir and Eomer. SO my suspicion list has been changed a little
1.Mormegil
2. Wilwa
3. Alcarillo
4. Azalia
5. Boromir
6. Eomer

[mormegil]

So artic if I read you correctly you are saying that I'm a wolf because I had early suspicions of Wilwa and then changed my mind? If you read my suspicion of Wilwa it's rather groundless and ludicrous. It was more to get something moving and I found a way twist what she said. In this post I quietly noted my suspicions beginning to rise for Perky and the behavior that followed only made my all the more suspicious. I still think Perky is guilty and don't find his answers to SpM interrogation satisfactory. I found this post by Perky a bit unsettling

...Alas, Another one bites the dust. I was afraid that Gil-Galad was not of the lupine, but as Alcarillo said

If you do not think Gil to be guilty then why vote for him? I realize the voting was close between you two but you never once mentioned that as a reason for you voting. However, if it were a reason and you were a true innocent I believe in this situation a true innocent should still vote for somebody they find guilty, even though it may mean they are lynched. Now if you were gifted then it could be a reason but I don't think you are gifted, I think you are a wolf.

Articstorm I really don't understand your logic here

But let us assume for a second that Perky is a wolf, then we could eliminate Morm, Wilwa, and Saucepan from suspicion probably. It would be too risky to vote for a fellow wolf if there is a chance he is innocent. So I will make a bold statement and say one of these three is probably a wolf, and therefore Perky is more than likely innocent.

If Perky were a fellow wolf then there's not a chance he's innocent. This seems like a convoluted statement meant to confuse and throw us off your tracks. That's right I think you are a wolf too. You appear to be attempting to shift attention off Perky on to others. And this is after you said that you suspected Perky and probably would have voted for him too had you been able to. Your story changed really quickly and you suspect me for changing my early, ridiculous suspicions of Wilwa to a more substantial Perky.

I'm beginning to see a nice little collusion between Articstorm and Perky. I'm not sure why anybody would suspect me at this point if there is any suspicion still on Perky. If Perky is innocent or Gil was a wolf then I could see it but as it stands and what we know it makes no sense.

On a side note, Abercrombie what are these 'driving lessons' you speak of? Will they help this struggling blacksmith in his trade? Is it some new craft that I could make and sell or witchcraft? I'm confused.

[The Perky Ent]

Originally Posted by morm

If you do not think Gil to be guilty then why vote for him? I realize the voting was close between you two but you never once mentioned that as a reason for you voting. However, if it were a reason and you were a true innocent I believe in this situation a true innocent should still vote for somebody they find guilty, even though it may mean they are lynched. Now if you were gifted then it could be a reason but I don't think you are gifted, I think you are a wolf.

Well, just like in this quote

Originally Posted by Alcarillo

Even if he turns out to be innocent, we, as Saucepan Man said, will eventually lynch him; and it's better to lynch an innocent today than later when it matters most for the village

that was partially my reasoning. He was suspicious to me, but I didn't have a strong feeling he was a wolf. I don't think anyone should have a strong feeling who a wolf is on the first day other than A) The seer who could have seen it, or B) reading the villager say 'Ahem! I'm a werewol- I mean, Steward. I'm voting + +BlahBlah (THIS ISN'T MY VOTE FOR TODAY. IT'S AN EXAMPLE) because he thinks I'm a wolf, and I don't want him trying to lynch me so the villagers can find out i'm a wolf'. I didn't have a gut feeling he was innocent, but I was, given his suspicious behavoir, willing to give it a chance.

Originally Posted by morm

However, if it were a reason and you were a true innocent I believe in this situation a true innocent should still vote for somebody they find guilty, even though it may mean they are lynched

Well, if we all thought like you, this game wouldn't be interesting, now would it? I did find Gil-Galad to be guilty to some extent, and that is why I voted for him. I didn't say

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

i swear i went eenie weenie miny mo ++Saucepanman


see you sunday

that also seemed suspicious too me. Need any more proof that I enough to go on to lynch Gil-Galad for day one? Mormegil, you seem to try to be throwing us off your tracks, at least from the way I'm reading it. There's nothing more enjoyable than everyone hypothetically call you a werewolf (That's sarcasm, if you didn't realize it)

Originally Posted by aber (yes, I know i'm quoting a lot)

In spite of this, I do not not trust Saucepan, because he is too big an asset to the village to lose, but more importantly it just seems a logical step towards weeding out the wolves from the villagers by posting the things that are suspicious.

I don't know if it's necesarily logical, but I do think it is very dangerous to have a big asset to the group. I hate to say every man for himself, but the only ones that can work together are the wolves, and they're working among us. I will certainly not trust anyone unless they specifically say something like "I know I may seem mean at times, but it's the price you pay for me protecting you" which is the person saying they're the ranger (not that they'll last long if they publically declare it). If I were to analize this thread like a math problem, I'd say y'all were using guess-and-check, plugging in different people into problems, picking more for your equation until you find the right one. By this equation, I mean the whole "let's assuming one of the werewolfs voted for Gil. Now let's say it's perky...


Mormegil, I do not have a collusion between Arctic. I'm not sure where you get that from.

[Cailín]

Poor Shelob! She was indeed a logical choice for the wolves, cause she suspected few and was suspected by pretty much no one. Her suspects other than Gil-Galad were Mormegil (though it seemed she had changed her mind about him before the end of the day) and The Perky Ent, which does not tell us much except that I feel slightly more inclined to believe in the innocence of both.

Perky, it seems, is still high on many people’s suspect list – but I’m not sure about him. He seems too obvious to be a wolf. His vote for Gil did not seem very strange or suspicious to me yesterday – for I think he voiced suspicions of Gil before either one of them was clearly in the lead. Though I was sad to find out Gil was innocent, I don’t think we should regret our choice too much – undoubtedly we would have had to lynch him sooner or later I'm aware The Perky Ent is still someone who will get votes today, and he might very well deserve them, but I don't think his death would tell us much, except how terribly wrong we all were. But I'm really not sure about that.

Arcticstorm is also someone I’m still keeping a close eye on. His reasoning is flawed indeed, and though being illogical is not necessarily a wolfish trait, I think he bears watching.

SpM, yesterday you said some things concerning Eomer and I’m slightly disappointed you did not repeat them today. I did see some sense in your accusations.

Eomer of the Rohirrim comes to mind. After I pointed out that Formendacil’s early vote met my criteria for distrust (but signified that I was disinclined to vote for him to-Day), he made an accusation of Formendacil, which he later backtracked on.

This was strange indeed. After getting little support for his Formendacil-is-evil campaign, he pretended to have changed his mind and admitted he ‘fell’ for Formendacil’s strategy (what – was Formendacil trying to get himself killed?) and then tried to start a bandwagon against those with empty posts, namely Wilwarin and Azaelia. I think he expected more people to vote for Azaelia, because there were some (including me) who indeed found their absense not helpful and even suspicious.

Eomer concerns me in particular since, even though I was antagonistic towards him, he avoided rising to the bait.

Another thing that worries me. He seems very much in control of himself and there’s a definite tactical thoughtfulness in each of his posts.

Because of this, I could also make a slight case against Boromir88, but just a slight one.

Originally Posted by Saucepan Man (to me)

Well, I fully acknowledge that my reasoning may be awry. But how do you know it is?

I did not intend to say your reasoning was awry. I apologize, I sometimes say things that mean something entirely different than what I want them to. I really only pretend to speak English. I meant your reasoning seemed to be purely that – reasoning – without any knowledge others may not have. As you always tend to do. I don’t know if that’s just being very clever, or you’re truly what you seem to be.

There's still many of you we have not heard from today, so I'm still waiting for more things to go on. I'd like a reaction from Eomer to this, though.

[arcticstorm]

Basically my logic is that at least one wolf was probably in each main group of votes. With that in mind, there is a possibility taht Perky is not a wolf because it would be too risky early on for the wolvesto vote the first day for a fellow wolf and have a chance at getting him lynched.
So I looked at who voted for Perky, however if Perky is a wolf, I can pretty much eliminate either Mormegil or Wilwa from being wolves. My entire idea of Morm or Wilwa being wolves hinges on the other one being one and Perky not. SHould any of those things be disproved, both Morm and Wilwa would not be high on my suspicion list for a while. I still beleive that 1 wolf voted for Gil, either Alcarillo, Azalia, or Perky. And while any other arguement I may have hinges on Perky being innocent, I want to beleive him innocent for the time being. But should that be disproven today, I would have to look more closely at those who distanced themselves from him and those who joined late into the vote. I would also look at those who led the vote once it was clear he would die anyway. But I am getting ahead of myself here. Right now, I cannot see anyone connected to Perky, by being close to, or distancing himself from him. But should someone be able to prove me otherwise, that he is, indeed. a wolf, I would join the village in administering justice.

On day 1 it is usually a good strategy for wolves to distance themselves from other wolves, and then vote for someone else entirely. I do not know if this is what happened, but that is one of the things my reasoning is based on.

[wilwarin538]

This post won't be as long as I like it, but I will post a longer one this afternoon.

For now all I can say is that my suspect list has become very small. Yesterday, like most people I think, I was accusing people somewhat at random. I don't really suspect Formendacil, Boro and Eomer anymore. I was just trying to get my thoughts together.

But when I voted for Perky I really did, and still do suspect him. He talks to much and most of the time it doesn't say much. So he is my only suspect for now and I see myself voting for him later.

I'll be back later.

[Boromir88]

Arcticstorm is also someone I’m still keeping a close eye on. His reasoning is flawed indeed, and though being illogical is not necessarily a wolfish trait, I think he bears watching.~Cailin

He makes pretty good sense to me basically he said he thinks wolf voted for Gil. (Perky, Azaelia, and Alcarillo)

Then he says that if Perky's a wolf he can pretty much mark off Wilwarin and mormegil as innocent. If Perky's innocent, wilwarin or mormegil (maybe both) are wolves.

And right now he's unsure about Perky being a wolf but if someone can convince him he'll help in the wolf's rightful justice.

Hope that helps. And I must say I cannot be one to convince anyone of Perky's wolfishness, or not, I agree with Cailin and think that his actions just seem too suspicious. I think only Perky can show us his true self. Despite this, Perky is still one of my top suspects.

Right now I'm sort of bought on Abercrombie's reasoning for the no-vote (which she would have voted if there was no time left and that vote would have been for Perky. So if Perky's a wolf, I can pretty much write off Abercrombie). And on this explanation...

It was more to get myself organised than anything else, but yes, that is what I was attempting to do (give everyone else a rundown, interspersed with my thoughts).

Though I'm still not sold on the "attatchment" to Sauce and me, however much sense it seems to make.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Cailín, in particular, take note.


#32. SpM 'glares at wilwa and Azaelia'. Considers Formendacil most suspicious but says he is 'somewhat disinclined' to vote for him.

#33. Eomer basically agrees with SpM. Voices suspicion of wilwa, Azaelia and Formendacil. Why is this copying? If it's a good idea then it's a good idea.

#39. Eomer says, again, that Formendacil is worth watching.

#42. Eomer changes mind about Formendacil. Admits that it could make himself look bad.

#44. Eomer states again that he has changed his mind about Formendacil. Eomer discusses SpM's wolf criteria – but NOT in an antagonistic manner. Doesn't suspect SpM at all.

#45. SpM appears hurt that Eomer missed the modifications to SpM's wolf criteria. Don't be hurt, sir, I meant no harm or offence; it was accidental.
SpM glides past the Formendacil question. At least Eomer was honest enough to admit that he had changed his mind and that it looked suspicious. SpM actually skips over this, claiming that he saw all along what Formendacil was doing. Are you forgetting something SpM? You said that Formendacil was most suspicious. When did you change your mind, exactly?
SpM gets angry with Eomer. Says I'm backtracking. Wants reasons. Conveniently ignores the reasons I already supplied (that I changed my mind after consideration of strategy) and conveniently ignores his own backtracking. Clever.

#47. Eomer apologises for earlier miss of SpM's modifications. Eomer comments on the similarities between his and SpM's thoughts.

#67. SpM says that Eomer is suspicious because he avoided 'rising to the bait' when SpM was being antagonistic towards Eomer. Does anyone think he would have quelled suspcion of me had I risen to the bait and got angry? No matter what I do or say SpM is picking on me. He sees a target in me and he's going for it, convinced of his own skewed logic, and convinced that he can charm everyone in the village with his pretty prose.

#67. During a rant about misinterpretation, SpM totally misinterprets the words of another villager, Abercrombie of Rohan, when she says 'I do not NOT trust SpM'. Double negative, don't you know? He then has the audacity to suggest that this is a Freudian slip. No, it's just a lack of understanding from you, sir. AoR seems to have casually sidestepped this issue. I won't. That's SpM twisting and shouting as only he can.


(I do not think I have missed anything which adds to these points.)


Because of his prominent position in the village debate, The Saucepan Man is trying to take control by subtle methods of manipulation. Perky Ent alluded to this at the start of Day One and I believe he spoke wisely.

My vote for Azaelia yesterday was due to a lack of (even slightly decent) options. Today, though, I have no doubt in my mind. The Saucepan Man is as treacherous, as cunning and as wolvish as the day is long. Off with his furry head, I say.

++THE SAUCEPAN MAN

I would also ask you all to keep this in mind: I have taken part in numerous treasure hunts and for the most part my ineptitude in them has been terribly evident. By picking on me, The Saucepan Man is attacking an easy target. Not so Eomer of the Rohirrim. The fame of The Saucepan Man is second to none in this accursed land, and his iron-grip is ever strong.

The Saucepan Man will go all out for me after this but do not be intimidated by him. If Eomer were a wolf, he would not be insistent on a quarrel with The Saucepan Man; to act in such a way would be madness. I am foolish and awful at staying out of trouble, but I don't think I'm mad yet. The Saucepan Man is a wolf.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I'd appreciate hearing why you tink I'm the second wolf, Arctic. You didn't really explain yourself.

As I said before, I voted for Gil because I really didn't see any other options, and his posts were decidedly unhelpful. He posted no real evidence to support his claims over and over again. It was confusing and, as others have said, supposing he continued to act that way, we would have lynched him later anyhow.

So people make mistakes. My first post was a mistake. Gil's method of playing was a mistake. Voting for Gil was also a mistake. That doesn't make me a wolf. And it didn't make him a wolf, either.

[mormegil]

Eomer those are interesting thoughts on SpM. I'm not sure whether or not I believe that he is a wolf though. I will make it very clear that, most likely, I will vote for either Perky or Articstorm and hope that I get some support. Notice I said that I most likely will, thus meaning I may change my mind but not likely.

The death of Perky will tell us a couple of things. If he is a wolf then, as Articstorm said, we can assume that Spm, Wilwa and I are innocent. But what has troubled me is that Artic is insistent on assuming that Perky is innocent. Why should we assume that

a. Anybody is innocent and
b. That the person who got the second most votes is innocent

That's why it seems to me that Artic and Perky are in cahoots. Articstorm is all but refusing to accept the fact that Perky may be guilty, he seems to be trying desperatley to cast favorable light on him. The only time I do that is when I'm convinced of somebody's innocence ie when I did with Shelob, and she was innocent.

Eomer and others, in regards to SpM I'm sure that the seer has already dreampt of him or will do so soon. So I think it to be our goal to identify one or two of the wolves and if SpM is a wolf then the seer will find that one out for us.

[The Perky Ent]

So I'm still on the lists, eh? That's what I get for opening my mouth. Quiet ones die and loud ones die. Takes a werewolf to stay just enough under the radar. I think there's a talkative wolf out there, a standard wolf who posts every so often and mildly, and a quiet werewolf who is staying deep under the radar.

Originally Posted by morm

If he is a wolf then, as Articstorm said, we can assume that Spm, Wilwa and I are innocent.

Hmm....so when I die, SpM, Wilwa, and Mormegil are no longer suspects? Well, according to your plan I'm dead by then, but these people happen to be people i've recently come to suspect, and this could be a werewolf (Possibly Mormegil) trying to throw people off the tracks of his friends.

Once again, I'm advising against using formula's you can't check without around three days and a seer. I wouldn't do something where it's "If we lynch perky, these people are automatically innocent". At this point, I'm really not sure who to suspect, and since my last list was so suspicious, I'll have to think even more on it. At the end of the day, I'm going with my gut, and that's how I advise you to vote. To you really think the person you're voting for is innocent?

Yeah, I know. This was a bad post, but I'm freezing and haven't had enough time to gather my information!

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Based off voting from yesterday, I think one wolf voted for Gil-Galad.

It seems to me that Gil is the last innocent that the Wolves would have wanted lynched, if you take my meaning. I suspect that a Wolf would only have voted for Gil if s/he needed to do so to save his/her own skin or that of a fellow Wolf. Which rather puts Perky in the frame if a Wolf did vote for Gil.

I think it fairly likely that the Wolves avoided voting for the same person, unless they were forced to do so. And, if one of the Wolves did not vote, I would suspect arcticstorm more than Abercrombie who did, at least, make some useful contributions yester-Day.

Originally Posted by Perky

You just seem to have too much control.

Originally Posted by Abercrombie

I looked to someone who was, may I remind you, assuming the leadership position with his own knowledge.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

However, at this point I seem to be thinking along his same lines and as long as his suspects turn out to be wolves and not innocents then I have faith in him.

I don’t like all these suggestions that I am trying to assume leadership. I am attempting to do no such thing, and will not do so until and unless I become convinced of the identity of a Wolf. All I have at the moment are thoughts and suspicions and, as far as I am concerned, I am merely setting these out for the benefit of the village. It is up to people whether they listen to me or not. Certainly, Boro’s “condition” for trusting me seems to be a rather hard one to discharge. I get the feeling that I am being set up for a lynching in the event that any of my suspicions prove to be mistaken, which is almost inevitable in this game. Indeed, Eomer, in his attack on me (of which more later) referes to the “convincing” nature of my posts.

Originally Posted by Abercrombie

However, if I said, I do not not trust you it would mean that I do, correct?

Bah! Tricksy double negatives. (And yes, Eomer, I genuinely did not spot the double negative.)

Originally Posted by mormegil

I'm beginning to see a nice little collusion between Articstorm and Perky.

I agree. Arcticstorm is one of the few people who has had anything positive to say about Perky to-Day. I also find his musings rather confusing, as if they were designed to throw us off the trail. He is basically saying that, if X is a Wolf, then Y is innocent, but if X is innocent, then Z is a Wolf. Who better to know of the guilt and innocence of X, Y and Z than a Wolf, and what better way to point us in the wrong direction when one of them is killed or lynched than this kind of reasoning?

Originally Posted by Cailin

SpM, yesterday you said some things concerning Eomer and I’m slightly disappointed you did not repeat them today. I did see some sense in your accusations.

Well I still suspect Eomer, Cailin, but more recently I had been focussing on other strong suspects. It seems rather alarming to me that, in these circumstances, Eomer has chosen to come out with such a blistering attack on me to-Day and that he has seen fit to vote for me without awaiting a response.

Originally Posted by Eomer

No matter what I do or say SpM is picking on me. He sees a target in me and he's going for it …

My, you seem to be very oversensitive, Eomer. I really don’t think that outlining my suspicions of you (along with a number of others) and then focussing on others who have seemed more suspicious can be described as “picking on you” or “going for you”. Cailin noted that you had somewhat dropped off my list of top suspects.

Your case against me seems to be mostly based on the “Formendacil situation” yester-Day. In this regard, I fail to see what has changed from yeter-Day, when you seemed happy not to rise to the bait of my suspicions (except, of course, that you not rising to the bait formed part of my suspicions against you).

Originally Posted by Eomer

SpM glides past the Formendacil question. At least Eomer was honest enough to admit that he had changed his mind and that it looked suspicious. SpM actually skips over this, claiming that he saw all along what Formendacil was doing. Are you forgetting something SpM? You said that Formendacil was most suspicious. When did you change your mind, exactly?

I have not changed my mind about Formendacil at all. And I have not backtracked in the least. I said that Formendacil was “most” (meaning “very”) suspicious on the basis of my stated criteria. But I did not feel inclined to vote for him until I heard further from him. Since he was not around, there seemed little point in pressing the case against him any further at that stage. I did feel that his early random vote was possibly very risky behaviour for a Wolf, but I have most certainly not dismissed him from my suspicions. And I never claimed to have interpreted his vote as a tactic. I merely agreed that it had stirred up the pot (which it had).

Your blistering attack and quick vote, pretty much out of the blue, does give me great cause for concern, Eomer. But there is some sense, I suppose, in what you say about a Wolf being unlikely to take me on directly. All I can say is that, if you are not a Wolf, then you are barking up the wrong tree.

I would add that I still have my suspicions of Azaelia and wilwa. They seem to to me to be doing very little to help locate these Wolves. I would rather see contributions of the quality of Eomer’s accusations against me (even though he is wrong) than occasional contributions which tell us next to nothing.

[wilwarin538]

Hmm....so when I die, SpM, Wilwa, and Mormegil are no longer suspects?

Well that just made me positive that you are guilty. Because I consider that him admiting he is a wolf, since Morm, SpM and I are only cleared if he is a wolf, not just if he dies.

The way that was worded makes it sound like he is guilty so I'm going to vote now.

++Perky

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

On a side note, Abercrombie what are these 'driving lessons' you speak of? Will they help this struggling blacksmith in his trade? Is it some new craft that I could make and sell or witchcraft? I'm confused.

Chariot driving, Morm, it may come in useful someday, though at my young age, I can't really see a point right now...

Perky, it seems, is still high on many people’s suspect list – but I’m not sure about him. He seems too obvious to be a wolf.

I'm in the same boat Cailin, except instead of Perky, it's articstorm. I mean really, what wolf wouldn't vote on the first day? It is bound to cause mass suspicion and hysteria, and probably a bandwagon vote against the offending player (in this case, articstorm.) He also posts with very odd reasoning that's already been mentioned by Morm and Cailin and Boro, so won't repeat it. But, this reasoning seems more helpful (or at least, tries to be more helpful) to me than Perky Ent's.

But, on the other side of things (*shakes fist at John Stuart Mill*), if we lynch articstorm today, and he's innocent, it will point to Mormegil especially, though Cailin to a lesser extent as well. I think this will prove helpful in finding an alliance of wolves. Because, look at who Mormegil has aligned himself with, SPM, Wilwa, and somewhat to Cailin. Now, I highly doubt that both SPM and Wilwa are wolves, because it would practically be suicide for three wolves to vote for the same person on the first day (assuming Morm is a wolf.) But, I would warrant that at least one of the three is a wolf.

Oh poot, I'm back to being useless again. Now I'm stuck, because both of the above are hypothetical situations and I'm trying to provide factual evidence for which to help out the village. Well, if nothing else, this will prove how thoroughly confused I am...

crossposted with SPM and Wilwa.

[Boromir88]

Quiet ones die and loud ones die. Takes a werewolf to stay just enough under the radar. I think there's a talkative wolf out there, a standard wolf who posts every so often and mildly, and a quiet werewolf who is staying deep under the radar.~Perky Ent.

I agree with that, which makes either Perky, me, or Sauce, Eomer, or Abercrombie (atleast these are who I think the "louder" mouthed-villagers are) a wolf. I can say I'm a simple villager spewing my ideas, and for right now, despite Eomer's argument against Sauce, I'm not going to send him to the gallows yet
because...

I am merely setting these out for the benefit of the village. It is up to people whether they listen to me or not.~Sauce

Sounds often like the logic I use...have a brain! (No pun intended...well...of course there was).

Boro’s “condition” for trusting me seems to be a rather hard one to discharge. I get the feeling that I am being set up for a lynching in the event that any of my suspicions prove to be mistaken, which is almost inevitable in this game.~Sauce

Indeed I am, what lovely villagers we all are. Of course I do realize we all are bound to make a slip-up once or twice, you and I should both know that, I'm talking about consistantly making the wrong choices. Steering everyone in the wrong direction. Whether you're innocent or not, we can't have someone influencing the decision to lynch villagers instead of wolves, and if I see a trend of innocent's being lynched and not wolves, my immediate suspicioun goes to the loudmouth everyone seems to be listening to. It's the leaders fault!

Right now I see no reason to scream lynch Abercrombie! Lynch Eomer! So that leaves' Perky as our loud-mouth wolf.

As for a medium guy (to me this includes) Morm, Cailin, and arcticstorm.
I see no reason to say Morm and Cailin are wolves yet. arcticstorm I'm unsure about, and most likely will not vote for him but always watch him. I follow his reasoning and ideas, but I again find myself agreeing with Perky (who actually I suspect most right now...kind of ironic), in atleast I MYSELF can't write anyone off as an innocent, no matter how the voting has went. Atleast early on in the game. I wouldn't put it past wolves to try some sort of tricksy strategy.

For our quiet ones...Alcarillo, wilwarin, Azaelia, Formendacil and Marcolie (who's disappeared...I hope that's everyone). Wilwarin and Azaelia right now I'm ok with. Marcolie's, Alcarillo's, and Formendacil's disappearances get me worried. Right now more likely Alcarillo or Form.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Poor Shelob. Many a times I've sat with her laughing about books innabilities to number correctly. We must find the wolves and avenge these innocents slain.


Morm seems to be very strong against Perky but not enough to become a commoner on suspect lists. Trying to stay just active enough to hide the fangs? Also, the one most connected to Shelob yesterday and beleiving she was innocent.

Perky Ent coming up often on lists of suspects, voted for Gil and I feel most likely one wolf did so. Voiced how he was suspicious of many-possibly trying to stir the pot, possibly hiding, and Artic is strongly for his innocence though. I doubt both are wolves because that'd be too open. For me he looks suspicious but almost too suspicious because I doubt a wolf would be so open about it. Howeverm he does manage to talk alot without saying too much.

Formendacil voiced suspicions of two yet randomly voted for another, I'd still like reasoning on this. In general I'd like to hear more from Form before making any decisions.

Wilwarin not very loud, nor very quiet, changed vote from suspisions yesterday, however from reading style others are higher on list for me.

Saucepan Man- loud, is either leading our village against the wolves or pretending too. For now I give him the benefit of the doubt because he'd be too important too lose.

Eomer most noticably is his strong offense against SpM, and anything that strong of statement (especially only on one) is suspicious, but again, I'm forcing myself to say would a wolf be so outright.

Arcticstorm I can't really understand artic's explinations that he has for suspicions. Also, listing suspsions without explaining why. Suspicious to me.

Alcarillo voted for Gil and was against him the whole time. Not voiced much else. Another one I'd like to see talk agian before making a decision on.

Abercrombie repeating what others said alot. This I think is helpful, but also could be a way to hide. I'm holding nothing against her for the lack of vote, but would like to see more personal thoughts.

Marcolie I don't know how others view me, and since I know myself to be innocent I don't know what to say about myself.

Azaelia been quiet, voted for someone other than her suspicions pointed to. I'd like to hear more, but she's already suspicious in my mind, not as much as others though, but she's managed to talk little yet not nothing.

Boromir like some others has very useful breakdown summeries of votes. Someone active but not overly so. A good posistion for a wolf to be, but judging by posts not one with suspision now.

Cailin suspected many right away yet voted for another one. However, judging from her post today I can't help but find myself agreeing with her.


All suspisions are comparative since I am suspicious of someone for simply living on this island. That comes when wolves manage to invade.

[Alcarillo]

I'm here! And I say "Lynch somebody whose death would give us the most information". Even if that person turns out to be an innocent, we then know more about what other villagers are likely to be. According to this, we should lynch Perky, right?

And out of the group-that-voted-for-Gil-minus-Shelob he seems to be the most suspicious. It is true that I am part of that group, but lynching me solely on a single vote doesn't sound like a good idea. Perky has been suspicious since yesterDAY, and there are reasons for his lynching besides his voting.

Just my thoughts.

[The Perky Ent]

He is basically saying that, if X is a Wolf, then Y is innocent, but if X is innocent, then Z is a Wolf. Who better to know of the guilt and innocence of X, Y and Z than a Wolf, and what better way to point us in the wrong direction when one of them is killed or lynched than this kind of reasoning?

Um...actually I wasn't saying that. That's the logic other people are using to try and figure out the wolves. I'm not sure what to think of Wilwarin, although your vote doesn't really suprise me. I guess I'm currently looking at moremegil, Wilwarin, and Azaelia. My gut tells me I should look into them more, as I haven't really spent much on who they are.

I'm sorry y'all find me suspicious, as I'm just a lonely wonderer who travels around and smokes his pipe.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Because of our gathering here, I feel it'd be better to double post to explain that I was out learning about training dogs to carry my books for me this morning and unable to attend our meeting for that reason. I wish I'd managed to be here earlier though.

In terms of lynching Perky to gain information, I really have to wonder if thats what the wolves were hoping we would do. He keeps coming up as too out there for me to be a wolf, and one that wolves would vote for but not connect themselves too because of this suspision. Then again, anyone could be trying to bluff.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Márcolië Lamen

Azaelia been quiet, voted for someone other than her suspicions pointed to. I'd like to hear more, but she's already suspicious in my mind, not as much as others though, but she's managed to talk little yet not nothing.

I knew I should have clarified. I did not say I was suspicious of Sauce at that time, just that I didn't like his list.

Besides, on the first DAY there wasn't much to go on for suspicions.

And I'm still looking for an explanation from Arcticstorm on why he suspects me. He never clarified.

And Perky, what am I doing to give you a "gut feeling" that I am worthy of suspicion?

If you don't explain your suspicions, there is no way for me to defend myself.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Perky

Um...actually I wasn't saying that. That's the logic other people are using to try and figure out the wolves.

Um ... I never said that you were. I was referring to arcticstorm.

It seems to me that there are a lot of votes gathering for Perky, and I fully realise that I am one of those who has voiced suspicions of him. But I would remind everyone of the benefits of spreading our votes out, at least in the early stages of voting. Not to the extent that the voting becomes meaningless. But having 6 or 7 who are in danger throughout is helpful, as at least one of those 6 or 7 is likely to be a Wolf. And I like to make these Wolves sweat during voting.

My own suspicions are currently directed mainly towards Perky and arcticstorm, and Eomer less so. But I will need to review everything that has been said and do some major thinking before I cast my vote. Depending on what I come up with and how the voting goes, I may end up voting for someone else entirely.

[Cailín]

A lot to catch up on, while I'm actually in a terrible rush, so forgive me for skipping a few points.

In terms of lynching Perky to gain information, I really have to wonder if thats what the wolves were hoping we would do.

This is what Marcolie said, but others before have said that lynching Perky will give us the most information. Pray, tell me, what do we know if Perky is found innocent? Only that we were all very wrong on Day 1. Should Perky prove to be indeed a wolf, I think the other wolves already gave up on him last night when he was second to be lynched. There's no one really sticking up for him now (except this might be seen as sticking up for) so I'm not really sure what this would tell us. I'm not saying lynching Perky is the worst idea - for all I know, he could be a wolf - but there is no concrete evidence against him, except that he talks a lot of nonsense since the start of Day 1.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I agree with that, which makes either Perky, me, or Sauce, Eomer, or Abercrombie (atleast these are who I think the "louder" mouthed-villagers are) a wolf.

I'm not sure if we can divide the wolves into categories... maybe there's three quiet wolves, maybe three loud ones... Anyone could be a wolf and practically everyone is behaving like they've always been behaving. I'm pretty sure there's at least one wolf in the people you mention here, though.

Originally Posted by SpM

Well I still suspect Eomer, Cailin, but more recently I had been focussing on other strong suspects. It seems rather alarming to me that, in these circumstances, Eomer has chosen to come out with such a blistering attack on me to-Day and that he has seen fit to vote for me without awaiting a response.

Eomer's accusations seemed far too fierce to me and I'm not sure what he's trying to achieve here. I thought about it for some time and I could only come up with one thing. There's no way he would have made himself any less suspicious by saying nothing to my accusations and there's no way he could have deflected them otherwise. And he very well knows that.

He states he would never pick a fight with SpM if he's a wolf. Ridiculous. He would never have attacked SpM were he an innocent. He cannot know whether SpM is a wolf or not (except if he's the Seer of course, which I doubt) and an innocent would never attack another helpful villager so outright if he knew he had to pay for his possible mistake the next day - it's too dangerous to the village to lose two innocents in a row. It is the move of someone desperate - and who would be desperate because of a minor accusation on Day 2 when we're already almost certain who's going to the gallows today?

If SpM is lynched and proven innocent, Eomer dies tomorrow. He knew this when he voted. And yet he did. Is he really thát convinced of SpM's guilt to risk the whole village? Or is he a wolf trying to take two players instead of one down with him?

Make your choice, my beloved fellow villagers. Even though I think neither one of them will be hanged today.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Perky Ent

Um...actually I wasn't saying that. That's the logic other people are using to try and figure out the wolves.

Actually according to how I understand it he was refering to Articstorm's logic.

Originally Posted by Alcarillo

I'm here! And I say "Lynch somebody whose death would give us the most information". Even if that person turns out to be an innocent, we then know more about what other villagers are likely to be. According to this, we should lynch Perky, right?

I agree in that today unless somebody better appears on the radar we ought to lynch the person who gives us the most information. I disagree that it would be Perky though. I would rather see Articstorm. If he's guilty I think we can assume the Perky is likely to be guilty too based on the colusion I noted earlier. If Perky is guilty then we can almost assume that Wilwa, SpM and I are innocent as well due to our first day voting of Perky. If Articstorm is innocent then I will be closely examined and I invite such examination of myself because I truly have nothing to hide. I am admitting that there is a chance that both Articstorm and I are innocent though I believe Articstorm is guilty.

My eyebrow has recently been raised to Márcolië Lamen but not sufficient to go after her today. But I will make it known that I will look more deeply at her in the future. I didn't yesterday because of Formendacil's random vote, it didn't seem just to go too strongly after her because of that.

[The Saucepan Man]

Another quick thought on Eomer.

Generally, it seems to me to be a good Wolfish strategy to hang around 'til near the end of voting in case a vote is needed to save a fellow Wolf or condemn a dangerous innocent. But it makes sense in this game to vote first, given the strategic value of a first vote in the event of a tie. I had thought Eomer's early vote to be too bold and risky a move for a Werewolf. But, if the voting is tight (as I hope and expect it will be) and I receive another vote or two, he has managed to put me in quite a dangerous position.

This, taken together with Cailin's thoughts, makes it quite possible that Eomer has given himself the role of sacrificial Wolf and is looking to take as many innocent villagers as possible out with him.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

So Cailín thinks it would be ridiculous for Innocent-Eomer to attack The Saucepan Man? Well, quite frankly m'dear, I think you're being ridiculous when you say that. Because:

1) Eomer is an Innocent Villager.

2) Eomer sees Saucepan Man twisting and attacking pretty much everything I say.

3) Eomer thinks this is wolvish; innocents wouldn't be acting in such a way.

4) Eomer thinks he can help the village catch a wolf.

5) Eomer votes for Saucepan Man.

Just what on Middle-earth is so 'ridiculous' about that? Please let me know, and I'll try to act in a less moronic fashion.

And reasoning for the early vote? I couldn't see when I could get back to the village square to talk with you people. In fact, I'm neglecting some important work right now, so you'll have to excuse me.

Good night. And try substituting 'fierce' with 'passionate' when you talk about me. Thank you.

[arcticstorm]

He is basically saying that, if X is a Wolf, then Y is innocent, but if X is innocent, then Z is a Wolf. Who better to know of the guilt and innocence of X, Y and Z than a Wolf, and what better way to point us in the wrong direction when one of them is killed or lynched than this kind of reasoning?

first of all, let me update your post a little I am saying if X is awolf then y is quite possibly innocent, but if x is innocent than z is quite possibly a wolf. There are no guarantees to this, but I just tend to try to follow a more deductive approach using the inductions that others have already stated.
With Azalia

I'd appreciate hearing why you tink I'm the second wolf, Arctic. You didn't really explain yourself.

I have you on the list following Boromir's inductions about a wolf probably voting for Gil.

I am less supicious of Perky right now because he seems too suspicious, like Formendacil yesterday. Right now everyone is suspecting him and he needs an advocate, even if it is not that good of one. Even if he is guilty, what the village needs is to look at everyone through all lenses, and not just focus on a few suspicious behaviors and only focus on those. My induction is that the wolves will be playing on this and are going to allow him to live as long as we do, because the village is supecting him. I am not saying he is innocent, but I am saying at least one, if not two of the wolves, are going to be among the least supicious in the village. They will not beleading the attack on perky, but they will join in, and not near the end either, somewhere in the middle if that is where it ends up.