Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

As I've already said, I must leave now and get on with the job of living (those pearls aren't going to come out of the oysters on their own) so much as it pains me, I will have to cast my vote now even though I desperately desire to see more from everyone before voting.

As I've also said, there's really no grounds for any real suspicion a this point, although Aiwendil with his Seer suggestion has raised some interesting points and made some interesting observations. Of all the summations thus far, his -- I think -- is the most useful:

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Mormegil: Thinks my idea is contradictory.
Gurthang: Thinks my idea will expose the Seer. Proposes that the Seer dream of Fordim or the SPM.
Dancing Spawn: Says I'm putting words in the Seer's mouth and that this will help the Wolves. Votes against me.
Lhunardawen: Says that I'm asking the Seer to do the impossible.
Saucepan Man: Says that my idea is sensible but difficult to put into action. Does not think it's a trick.

He goes on, based on this analysis, to name Gurthang and Dancing Spawn as his prime suspects. Interestingly, both of them have expressed suspicion of me....

So, like I say, I have no real way of knowing if either of them are wolves. In fact, I am only 3/14 ths sure that one of them is a wolf, but as I have to vote now, and as Aiwendil has made the most sense so far, I will have to vote for one of them.

Gurthang is far too obvious a choice: if he is a wolf, he's an incredibly silly one, and I haven't seen enough of Gurthy yet to determine if he is that silly....so, that leaves

++DANCING SPAWN OF UNGOLIANT

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Cross posted with Rune, Folly, and Formy .

[Folwren]

'Jack', dear. Folly's very feminine. Jack, for now. It's cute, Folly is, but Jack . . . well. . .you know.

-- Jack

[mormegil]

I have remained relatively quiet until now because I wanted to observe some behavior and I think it is time to come forward with my thoughts. While I found Aiwendil's seer statement moderately contradictory, I found it fairly innocent and I made my comments about Aiwendil's guilt as fairly innocuous. Meaning I really didn't suspect him but wanted some point to discuss and I think it has been fruitful so far. Aiwendil does a good job at outlining some of his suspects in relation to this list. I would be more inclined to vote for Gurthang over Spawn; the reason being is that Spawn would be a bit more shrewd if she were a wolf than she was, this is not a proclamation of her innocence but currently I'm not overly concerned with her.

Gurthang however, I believe, has the chutzpah to attempt such a bluff at wolvery. Nearly everything he has done or said implicates his guilt and he is hoping that we will write it off as being too obviously wolfish. I for one will not at this stage and therefore

++Gurthang

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Jack

I highly recommend we not vote one of the smart people off. Saucepan Man, mormegil, and Fordim all fall into this category.

Well thank you, young Jack. I appreciate the compliment 'n all, but you might as well just be done with it and hang a sign on our backs saying "Wolves, please kill us!".

Originally Posted by Kath

Now I'm not too keen on Folwren but for that I have a little more reasoning, well not much, just this sentence:

Quote:
I don't kill animals during the day.

So you kill them during the night? Is what came into my mind as I said it. Technically humans are animals so it sort of works.

Now that seems a bit spurious to me, young lass. What are you suggesting that it implies? A Wolvish hint? Well it seems to me that there bain't no chance of Wolves dropping hints intentionally. So mayhaps you're suggesting it was a slip? Well, if so, it's a slip just as likely to be made by an innocent - moreso given that Wolves are likely to be more careful 'bout what they say. Seizing 'pon such a phrase looks suspicious in itself to me, so my eye is now on you too.

My main suspicions still lie with Master Hedgethistle and young Gurthang, though. The former because he set out a plan which really didn't look much of a plan to me, but more of a statement of the obvious. And at the same time, he looked to be implying sommet nasty 'bout those who made early (mostly random) accusations - mayhaps a way of deflecting suspicion from hisself. Other than that, he has given little away concerning his own thoughts, but instead piggy-backed on Aiwendil's reasoning to cast his vote. Now, while I myself see much sense in what our Scholar has said, I would have expected a little more original thought from someone so highly regarded as Master H.

As for Gurthang, like mormegil, I still see it as possible that he voted early as a means of deflecting suspicion, thinking that people would see it as too dangerous a game for a Wolf to play. The lad hints at this being part of some grand plan. Well, I shall await to see what he has to offer.

With all that's been going on, there's not much business down at the harbour, so I shall bide my time and vote nearer to the deadline.

[Gurthang]

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS

Subject: Gurthang
Analysis: Early vote.
Approximate possible reasons: 6

1. Gurthang is the Seer and dreamed of a wolf.

Gurthang dreamed of a wolf last night. Rather than coming out right away and saying that he was the Seer, he decided to make a more direct approach. This way, the wolves might not realize he’s the Seer, but rather a bumbling innocent. Later, when the Seer dies, the villagers will be able to come back and see that Gurthang knew Formendacil to be a wolf.

2. Gurthang is the Seer and did not dream of a wolf.

Gurthang is trying to draw attention to himself because it is unexpected of Seers. Seers tend to stay more quite and less accusing. By trying to be the center of attention, he is hoping that the wolves will look elsewhere for the Seer.

3. Gurthang is a wolf.

Gurthang is a wolf attempting to hide out in the open, thinking that others would assume a wolf to be smarter than to draw so much attention to himself.

4. Gurthang is an innocent protecting the Seer.

By accusing one person, Gurthang is hoping to nail a wolf. Thus, the wolves will think he is the Seer. They kill him during the night. This saves the Seer, and proves the one Gurthang accused to be a wolf.

5. Gurthang is an innocent trying to spark conversation.

The town was quiet, so Gurthang was trying to flare up some conversation.

6. Gurthang is the cobbler.

Gurthang is simply trying to confuse everyone.

Any additions or corrections are welcome.

[Kath]

++Fordim Hedgethistle

Why? Because I have no real suspicions today. My only one even loosely based on reasoning was Folwren and she gave a very ratty reply to that though it did make sense.

Fordim on the other hand has just told us that he is a wolf. I have no idea whether he's telling truth or playing some kind of bluff or what, but since we don't know who anyone is at the moment, we might as well lynch someone who has 'admitted' to being a wolf.

[Boromir88]

Well, I 'ave quite a bit more time before I go back to tendin' my crabs.

Now I think all business owners had some dislike of this tax man of ours and some had more to benefit than others. I mean really how much profit is there in crabbing and pearl diving? That points to Fordim and Boromir although Jack's business has been slow lately and has to benefit by saving on taxes and on increasing our paranoia so that we buy more weapons and armor.~mormegil

I aint gonna try to deny that I's lost my house, cus I culdn't affourd it anymore wid all the taxes. Now, I live on sum cruddy ol' boat on the shore. But, I aint never 'ate Alcarillo, or any tax collectors. The ways I've always seen it wus, every mans gotta right to make 'is own livin'. And it aint Alcarillo's fault that 'es tryin' to make a livin' by takin' money an' workin' for the King. The ways it always been is the rich neva 'ave to pay money, it's always the brokin' backs of the pour that drive empires. I guess, I'm a sayin' I'm proud to be a 'ard workin' man that keeps the wheels a runnin' so to say. But, evry mans gotta make a livin'. And I aint gonna punish no man tryin' to make an 'onest livin'.

Everyone is surspecting Gurthang or Spawn. And they may very well be wulves. But, sumthin' doesn't sit right in me stomach with Holbytlass. It wus jus' this comment:

Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – pearl diver
Lhunardawen – shepherd girl
Jack – furrier/blacksmith
Holbytlass – butcher

With so little to go on today, I suppose we should take a look at this group, if they be human and kill animals by day who's to say they don't turn animal and kill humans by night? Not a very good plan, seeing as I'm on it too, so no doubt there would be other innocents on this list as well, got to start somewhere....

We aint executin' animal killers mi lady. We's a tryin' to execute wulfs. Though, I suppose its likely sumone on that list is a wulf. It jus' doesn't suit with me own logic that you shuld kill sumone based on their professin. We're all tryin' to make a livin'. Without me crabs I'd be on da street sittin' next to Kath. You don't 'ang a man cus you dun like his profession.

Fur that, Holbytlass an' I suppose Gurthang ar' me top two surspects at this point. And I aint gunna foget Rune for 'is snappy comments earlier, but I suppose there's much 'ore suspisius stuff fur me to look at.

Like the Panman, I will wait an' 'old my vote 'til latuh.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Gurthang however, I believe, has the chutzpah to attempt such a bluff at wolvery. Nearly everything he has done or said implicates his guilt and he is hoping that we will write it off as being too obviously wolfish. I for one will not at this stage and therefore

++Gurthang

Why thank ye, mormegil! I be honored to find myself so highly thought of, aside from how wretched your claim makes me appear.


From me own analysis above, I will tell ye all that the truth be number 4 and number 5. But, me saying so will not make no difference to those who already think guilty of me. In fact, I'm sure mormegil and Saucepan will use it against me. I don't be saying that's bad though, I'd be doing the same in their shoes.

My vote be already wasted, but I'm keeping an eye on Kath, although that's mostly from what other people have said of her posts. And now her vote, in which I find the reasons and the action not lining up.

I'll also throw in that Aiwendil is being watched by me. Her statement that she'll suspect any who don't support some group 'plan' has me worried. Plans can be froth with downfall, if a leader is chosen who be a wolf. Now, she's not suggested a leader, but I'm still keeping a close watch.

Votes so far:

Gurthang (Formedacil-1)
Lhunardawen (Formendacil-1, Wayne-1)
Wayne (Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1)
dancing spawn (Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1)
Formendacil (Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1, dancing spawn-1)
Fordim Hedgethistle(dancing spawn-2, Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1)
mormegil(dancing spawn-2, Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1, Gurthang-1)
Kath (dancing spawn-2, Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1, Gurthang-1, Fordim-1)



Oh, Kath, dear, it twas Formedacil that claimed himself to be a wolf.

[Aiwendil]

I'll also throw in that Aiwendil is being watched by me. Her statement that she'll suspect any who don't support some group 'plan' has me worried. Plans can be froth with downfall, if a leader is chosen who be a wolf. Now, she's not suggested a leader, but I'm still keeping a close watch.

That's "he", for future reference

And let me emphasize that I do not suspect "any who don't support some group 'plan'". Rather, I suspect those that seemed to suggest that my proposal was a trick. As I said before, if it were a Wolvish trick, it would be a very poor one indeed.

[Kath]

Oh fribble! Many apologies Fordim! That's twice I've got your names mixed up now! Shoot I can't go back and change it either can I? I'm so sorry. I must find a way to separate your names in my head.

1) Contrary to what Kath has said, Gurthang has not voted to lynch me...not this Day, leastaways.

No indeed you are correct he has not, that was for Formendacil. If I'm still alive tomorrow after these idiotic mistakes rest assured that I will find a new name for one of you and so avoid doing so for a third time.

Ah but wait! Formendacil did say that Fordim too was a wolf, so if I'm going by the same logic that I'll vote for someone who admits it then it follows through still. Ok, yes, I know that doesn't really work but hey, who knows what's going on here! And I would like my vote to count for something.

[Folwren]

Originally observed by SpM:
Well thank you, young Jack. I appreciate the compliment 'n all, but you might as well just be done with it and hang a sign on our backs saying "Wolves, please kill us!".

Herm. . .sorry ol' chap. I see your point, and I apologize greatly. But, you know, if there are any smart wolves in the pack, then they wouldn't have needed me to tell them anyway. Be that as it may, I am sorry. You'll believe me, I hope.

Concerning some of the few accusations flying around. . .

I doubt Wayne's the Cobbler. Surely, he could be, but it's pretty much impossible to tell from this point. People think he's suspiciously silent and not giving any reasons for his votes and whatever else you'll bring against him. Well, right now, I would probably say that his silence isn't something that shows whether he's innocent or not innocent, because that's just how he is. He's a quiet little fellow, if you haven't noticed. Indisposed towards talking. You won't find out if he's a wolf by how many words he says. . .

Holbytlass on the other hand. . .Boromir, I'd have to agree with what you said. Her bringing our professions up and throwing them back into our faces (and getting mine mixed up, no less) is a rather far out idea, but one that may get people thinking on the wrong and totally random track. Hence, it is indeed a possibility that she is the Cobbler. But, you must all understand, this is only speculation. I can't, as everyone else can't, prove my point. It's just something to consider a while.

Naught else to say at the time being. . .

-- Jack

[Boromir88]

I crossed widda couple of peeple. Now, I'm gonna go back to my simple, plain, logic as in when I furst was spekkin' this mornin'.

Again, with fifthten peeple, an' three wolfes, I think its logical fur me to say that sumone who's gotten a vote so far is a wulf. So 'eres whos gotten a vote so far...

Spawn (2)
Formendacil
Wayne
Lhuna
Aiwendil
Gurthang
Fordim

If you wis' to follow my suggestiun, I say this is a good enuff list for Day 1, 'nd we shuldnt put anymore opshuns up fur a lynchin'. Though this is jus' my own logic, ya'll may vote 'ow yall please.

Again, goin' back to logic, it's likely one of dese peeple is a wulf, nd' we shuld try to figger out which one.

Fur me own personal opiniun Wayne, isnt a wulf. I think 'es jus' distraut 'ver the loss of 'is close frien'. I 'ope he becums 'ore 'elp in the future, or purhaps I may begin surspectin' 'es a wulf.

Aiwendil, besides bein' a snobby fonetican (phonetician) I see nuttin' in 'im to think 'es a wulf, yet.

So to me, this leafs...
Spawn
Formendacil
Lhuna
Gurthang
Fordim

Gurthang I guess you can call me a big softy, but I think 'es tellin' us the truth an' I dun think 'es a wolf. I knows earlier I surspects 'im, but it was in the middle of cross-postin' wid 'im too, so I take back my suspishuns. I think 'es an 'onest man, tellin' us 'is ideas and wut 'es doin'. But, thats jus' me own opinion.

Fordim, 'es a lot smarter dan me, so I just aint gonna vote fur 'im yet. I think 'e can be a good benfit fur the village if 'es not a wulf. I aint comtable votin' out sumone 'ho can 'elp us.

I aint gotta reddin' on Formendacil yet. 'e aint dunnalotta spekkin' yet, but I think thats jus' the way 'e typically is. I dun surspect 'im yet.

So this leafs Spawn an' Lhuna. Both voted rathuh early if ya ask me. Though Gurthang voted first, I believe 'im and typically I dun surspect sumone to vote early. But, I think we do 'ave an early votin' wulf amongst us, 'nd I think either Spawn or Lhuna wus tryin' to tag 'long with Gurthang, 'opin too to cast off suspishun. Though its 'ard for me to vote fur one of them, cus they a have to vote earlier, cus of the timezones.

I dun gotta bad fellin' about Holbytlass, but based on me logic that it's probable dat one of the peeple voted fur so far is a wulf, I dun feel comtable addin' anuther name to the lis'. But, I still gotta a while befur I 'ave to decide. Thats' just me own thoughts on the canidites up fur lynchin' so far.

[Folwren]

Cross posted with Gurthang, Kath, Aiwendil, and now Boromir 88. . .

[Holbytlass]

I seem to have touched a couple of nerves for my "first day frivolous" list. Boromir laims hat I want to kill someone based on their professions, I said "to take a look" at the group.

Interesting reactions thus far, Fordim claims to sing his way into the oysters. Seeing as I've never been down with him, I'll take his word for now.
Jack says he's not a furrier, in my defense, I got it from Alcarillo's tax list (post2). If he isn't one, my apologies.

But the two who are bent out of shape of an obvious conversation starter are Boromir and especially Jack.

[Holbytlass]

I can see where each person voted for has compelling suspicions against them, but I can also see where each may be seen as innocent. Right now, I'm hesitant to go along with anyone else but today must vote my gut...

++Jack

he seems too jumpy for a random "look-see" list.

[Folwren]

To Holbytlass's vote, I've one thing to say with a merry twinkle in my eye:

"Ha!"

-- Jack

[wilwarin538]

I see we got ourselves some votes. Interesting. 'Ere be a list of all playrs and what I be thinkin of em at this time. I will also rate them on a scale of 1 to 10. 1 being most definetly innocent and 10 being most definetly guilty.

Aiwendil – interestin idea about the Seer, kinda strange but still intrestin. 7
Boromir88 – He's spoke quite a bit. Seems rather helpful. 8
Dancing spawn of ungoliant - Has gotten de mos votes thus far. Not sure bouts her. 5
Fordim Hedgethistle – Also talks quiet a bit, I'm a thinkin he's thrustworthy. 8
Formendacil – E's posted a few times I believe. Though somethin bout him is strange. Like his last post for 'xample, very strange. 4
Gurthang – Seems one of da most suspicious like to me. A bit defensive, votes early. My vote may possibly be for him. 3
Holbytlass – Made a list of random suspects, seemed to have good enough reasons for choosin dem. But since she put herself on da list I think its suspicious. Peraps she put herself der to make herself look less suspicious. Would a wolf really draw attention to herself like dat? Exactly, peraps thats what she wanted us to be a thinkin. 4
Jack – Talks a bit, makes 'imself sound smart, then advises us not to vote for smart people. Tryin to save 'imself perhaps? Vote possibly for 'im. 3
Kath – Confuses Fordim and Formen, I can relate. I don see much suspicious bout er. 8
Lhunardawen – I also don see anythig suspicius bout er. 8
Mormegil - Not much to go on. 5
Rune Son of Bjarne – Surspects some peeple wit not much to go on, as e puts it. His ratin is more of a gut feelin. 4
The Saucepan Man - Elpful, stroies are a bit annoyin but I'm a thinkin 'im innocent. 8
WaynetheGoblin – Same ol Wayne. Never clarifying anytin. But I don't think him guilty. 6

So dos are me thoughts. I'll be back in anoder hour or so. Peraps I'll vote then.

crossposted wit Jack

[Folwren]

I'm about to leave and will not be able to post again for the remainder of today.

I guess I should vote. . .but I don't exactly want to. I'm inclined to vote for Formendacil. . .rarely do innocent villagers say they're wolves.

On the other hand, I'm hesitant to vote for Formendacil because that puts he and Spawn up to the same amount of votes, which, if no one else adds onto those votes, causes a double lynching, a thing which I think is not good. There is only an hour and a half left to vote. . .half of us have already done so. The other half may not be able to make up their minds.

I'll vote for ++Formendacil. I can not be accountable for Spawn's death if she dies, I was not the one to vote for her. But Formendacil seems questionable, if only for his claim of being a wolf.

Understand. . .I don't know for certain. It's a guess in the blind dark.

-- Jack

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

The last hour's posting have not helped me decide who to vote for. I will vote for Wayne, because of his odd vote and the fact that it will be very difficult to decide if he is a wolf or not.

++Waynethegoblin

There is an hour left, I guess that is time enough not to get a dubble lynch

[wilwarin538]

So the votes are:

Spawn (2)
Formendacil (2)
Wayne (2)
Lhuna
Aiwendil
Gurthang
Fordim
Jack

Out of the three with 2 votes Formendacil was the one who had more of my suspicion. I would like to vote for Jack but that would be rather piontless and I don't want to be accused later of keeping the double lynch. So I think the best choice would be:

++Formendacil

I hope that wasn't a bad choice.

[mormegil]

Interesting that so many people think Formendacil is guilty. His statement that he's wolf seemed more sarcastic rhetoric to me and he was merely trying to make a point that Gurthang was hasty and we are all being a bit paranoid here. But that's just my take on it.

[Aiwendil]

Three votes against Formendacil - that seems a bit strange to me, considering he's posted but once so far and didn't say anything particularly suspicious, in my view. Sure, he joked about being a wolf. But is this sufficient evidence to lynch him?

Of the likely candidates, I'm much more inclined to vote for Dancing Spawn, for reasons mentioned earlier. But I don't want to cause a double lynch. I'll wait a little bit more . . .

[Boromir88]

So far we 'ave 12 people whos voted. I think it's myseln, Panman, an' Aiwendil lef' to vote.

I relly 'ave no idear who to go for. I s'pose I should go for Formendacil; 'e did say he wus a wulf. I relly dun see why though a wulf wuld be so stupid in the beginnin'. And shure, I aint afeared to call it stupid, cus it is stupid, if 'es a wolf. But, I dun think a wolf wuld be stupid 'nuff to say 'es a wulf. I relly 'ave no idear whut Formendacil is plannin' wit' tis wulf talk.

So, now my thinkin' is to tie it back up (meanin' either Spawn or Wayne). And wit' Panman pledging 'ed be back to vote, I fell safe in doin' this. I dun no if Aiwendil will be back, but Panman sed 'e wuld an' if not that only makes 'im look bad in me 'onest eyes.

I still see relly not a stron' resson to believe Wayne's a wulf. 'e may be the Cobbler, which wuld be a good victry fur us villagers on day one. But, still we'd like furst to see if we can catch a wolf.

So, this leaves Spawn, who I think of the three I've mentioned is the most likely to be a wolf. (Though I aint sayin' she is, I'm goin' wit' my own gut feelin'. That's all a simple villagers got wit' 'im, is 'is gut). An' I s'pose since Spawn is 'aving technical difficulties, and knowin' she aint gonna be 'ere I fin' it 'ard to vote for sumone 'ho I knew wusnt gonna be 'ere. But, I guess if I thinks shes a wulf, than I shuld vote fur her...right?

Or, I culd vote for anuthuh person to bring d'em to two votes and see what Panman and Aiwendil know wut to do? Jus' for Panman and Aiwendil, unless sumthin dramatically changes I'll prolly vote for Spawn, or sumone else wit' one vote.

I always 'ate votin' late, cus you make a wrong choice, an' peeple start lookin' at ya. But I's a stuck wit' da rest of yall, an' I only got my gut to go off of.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

I think that mormegil is right: it seems a bit, well, harsh to punish Formy for what was more than likely to be a bit of ill-advised rhetoric than a bold admission... The point he was making is a good one, although he made it in a bit of a ham-fisted way. Anyone can be a wolf for all we know right now....

..but if he gets lynched I guess we'll find out for sure what he meant by that.

This here post, though, is really a plea for those remaining voters to do their best to avoid a double-lynching: the only folk as will be pleased with that will be the wolves as the odds of getting even one wolf even with two killings is still only 2 in 15.

Back to polishing those pearls...and keeping an eye on these here goings-on.

EDIT: Please see the "discussion" thread for my explanation of my presence here when I said I wouldn't be back today.

[Boromir88]

Well, I know Aiwendil's 'ere now. An' wit' us 'ere, and my belly gettin' 'ungry (I got stuff'd crabs planned fur tonight). I dun wanna big mix up at the an' with all of us bein' 'ere to vote. So, I shall vote now, an' leaf it up to you ones.

++Dancing Spawn

[Aiwendil]

Okay, since Boromir88 has indicated a willingness to vote against Dancing Spawn, we should be able to avoid a double lynch. I simply don't think there's any real evidence against Formendacil at this point. So my vote is:

++Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

Now if Boromir88 and SPM allow a double lynch, we'll know they're up to no good.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, voting deadlines comin’ up. And it’s ’bout time I aired my views on what has gone on today and how I view each of you, my fellow villagers.

Aiwendil: Seen naught to change my initial view. Helpful and sensible contributions. Naught to suggest Wolfishness.

Boromir88: That there lad, ’e be ’ard work on the ears. Wish ’e could speak proper like me. But sensible thoughts, when I can unnerstand wot he dun be sayin’. Again, naught to suggest Wolfishness as yet.

Dancing spawn: Took badly to Aiwendil’s comments ‘bout the Seer. But I’m sure we are all concerned to protect our Seer (those of us as are innocent, that is). And I can’t reall see ‘ow it makes ‘er any more likely to be a Wolf than anyone else.

Fordim Hedgethistle: Suspicious, for the reasons I have stated before. Not contributing nearly enough for one so bright.

Formendacil: Looks like ‘e might be for the chop today. Can’t for the life of me see why. He’s done naught but flippantly claim to be a Wolf and then voted randomly. I don’t believe a Wolf would joke ‘bout isself bein’ a Wolf (although mayhaps that’s what ‘e wants us to think). Not nearly enough to go on.

Gurthang: The lad is correct that I still be suspicious of ‘im, following the revelation of this grand plan of ‘is. ‘E claims that is early vote was to spark conversation and protect the Seer. Well, as I said, ye can spark conversation without goin’ as far as to vote so early. And as for protecting yon’ Seer, well ’e ain’t doin’ a good job ’bout it. Why go an’ admit to it if that were what you were doin’, lad? It ain’t gonna work now you’ve done that. Could well be a Wolf who’s realised that ‘is plan to deflect suspicion ‘asn’t worked and is now frantically back-pedalling. Remains suspicious.

Holbytlass: Her suggestion that we look at those as kill animals for a livin’ was a bit strange, but then she’s not the only one who’s been making random accusations.

Jack: Reaction to Holby’s list raises some suspicions, but not much else to go on.

Kath: Didn’t like the way she seized on Jack’s words so eagerly. Is her tendency to confuse Fordim and Formendacil part of a strategy to confuse? I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt for now.

Lhunadarwen: Not a lot to go on. Early vote for WaynetheGoblin was explained. And who can blame anyone for voting for Wayne?

Mormegil: Not a lot to go on, but seems helpful and constructive.

Rune: Still keeping’ an eye on him for ’is tit-for-tat accusation of me. But ’as done very little else to attract suspicion.

The Saucepan Man: Innocent, I tell thee.

WaynetheGoblin: Who knows with Wayne? ‘E’s a man of few words and those that ‘e utters tell us little. Could be a Wolf or a Cobbler, but could just as well be an ordinary innocent or even a gifted. I won’t risk voting for ‘im - not yet anyways.

Wilwarin: Little to go on, but naught too suspicious so far.

Of course, there are a few there as ‘ave done little or naught to suggest any guilt on their part. Mayhaps, they are the ones as we should be worried about. But for now, I’m probably going to vote for one of them I find suspicious based on what they have said today.

I’m off for a smoke and a think. Back shortly to vote.

[Alcarillo]

DAY 1 will end in 5 minutes. Post anything else you have to say now.

[Gurthang]

Should the wolves choose to kill me tonight, I'd advise you all to look at Formendacil(if he's still alive). It may very well be that the wolves are killing me to set him up, so be careful. But it is just as likely that they would kill me because he is a wolf and they realize that I am the Seer.

Current leaders:

Spawn-4
Formendacil-3

[The Saucepan Man]

Cross-posted there with a few voters.

Well now it looks plain that dancing spawn will be lynched today. Can't say that I have any real reason to suspect either her or Formendacil. Nuthin I can do now will change today's outcome. So I shall make my position clear by placing my vote where it 'as been hovering all day - 'twixt Master Hedgethistle and Master Gurthang - and falling on:

++ FORDIM HEDGETHISTLE

[Alcarillo]

The Forostar was a desolate place. Bleak, purplish, rocky moors covered much of the land. Only a few shepherds wandered here and there, the only population in the central regions of the peninsula. There were no towns away from the coast, except in the southern regions. Often the only manmade structure one could see in all directions was the long road that stretched up to Sorontil. As one followed this road the land became more hilly, and through the hills one could catch a glimpse of Tar-Meneldur's ancient observatory. Eagles made their abode in the tower during the time of Ar-Pharazôn, and they became more commonly seen as one continued northwards. Eventually, the road reached the coast, dropping sheer into the sea with great black cliffs thick with fir and larch. Wherever the sea had pounded a harbor into the cliffs a tiny village grew. They dotted the coast, isolated and small. Their only major usefulness was to provide shelter for fishing fleets during storms on the sea, but those days were rare indeed while the Valar watched over the land. But as Númenor lost favor with the Avalôi, the villages became shelters for more than fishing boats . . .

* * * * *

The sun set in the West, and the entire sky over Númenor turned a wrathful orange. The black silhouettes of seagulls wheeled in the air, watching the villagers convene at the docks to lynch one of their own.

Each villager had a knot in his stomach and a deep feeling of dread. The votes were read aloud by the harbourmaster, and against the flaming northern sky he seemed a perfect match for Mandos himself. The votes were tallied and they declared that dancing spawn of ungoliant was to die. She sobbed into an embroidered handkerchief. "All I ever did was work with my needle, and my thread. *sob* I never in all my *sob* life hurt another soul! I didn't kill *sob* poor Alcarillo!"

She gained a few reassuring pats on the back, but someone shouted "Watch out! She could be a werewolf!" and the comfort ended. She sobbed even louder as she stood from where she sat by the pier and was poked into view by numerous pitchforks and shovels. The villagers gathered into a group behind her. "To the cliffs!" shouted someone. "Huzzah!" responded the villagers, and they poked dancing spawn towards the path at the edge of the village, the one that climbed up the old black cliffs that dropped sheer into the ocean. They moved single file up the steep path, between evergreen trees and ferns, until they reached the top of the cliffs. Through the trees one could see the ocean glittering. The group moved toward the cliff ledge that faced the sparkling sea. And at the very edge of the cliffs, where one more step would send dancing spawn to her death, she turned around, and she began to say something, but a thrust from one of the pitchforks thrust her off the black cliffs, and screaming she fell into the ocean below, dashed against the black rocks. The villagers watched her body transform as the waves washed over it. The dress burst as her dead body grew larger, and hairier, and her delicate hands became fierce claws. The villagers headed back to town to celebrate.

* * * * *

Dead
Alcarillo – mod - impaled upon his own sword – NIGHT 1
dancing spawn of ungoliant – werewolf – pushed off the cliffs and into the sea – DAY 1

Living
Aiwendil – retired tutor
Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – lithesome and non-unionized pearl diver
Formendacil – disgruntled office clerk
Gurthang – (possibly unemployed) dockhand
Holbytlass – butcher
Jack – blacksmith and farrier
Kath – bum
Lhunardawen – polite little shepherd girl
Mormegil - repairman specializing in ships and docks
Rune Son of Bjarne – Union leader
The Saucepan Man - harbormaster
WaynetheGoblin – doctor
Wilwarin538 – fiddler

It is now NIGHT 2. I need a name from the seer, ranger, and hunter. Villagers, stay silent, and werewolves, you may now PM. Sweet dreams!

[Alcarillo]

The coast of the Forostar was always a hideout for spies as long as there had been Elendili to spy on the King and an oppressive king to spy on the Elendili. Elendil would send his Elf-friends to the tiny hamlets of Númenor, where they waged an intelligence war against the King's men. Many were discovered and taken to Sauron's Temple, Zadan an-Mulkhêr, in Armenelos, and killed as sacrifices to Melkor. Sauron himself performed the sacrifices, under the name Zigûr, the Wizard. After long incantations in the Adûnaic tongue, the victim would be subject to a painful and terrible death.

And when Zigûr was not within easy reach of his victims, he sent out his werewolves to do the job for him. Rarely did they not slaughter a village when told to do so. And rare was it that Ar-Pharazôn refused Sauron wolves to transform into werewolves by his dark arts, like those of Sauron's isle of Tol-in-Gaurhoth, long before the rise of Númenor.

* * * * *

The moon rose as the sun set, and the clouds of that day faded to reveal a thousand stars glittering over the entire island. The fog from the morning had long since dissipated. Jack stayed awake late into the night, listening to the sounds of the wind in the fir trees on the cliffs and staring at the stars through his bedroom window. His eyelids drooped and for a moment he could have been sleeping, and once more conversing with the old King of the Sea, the one who was hated most of all by Zigûr, so far away in the city. But Zigûr's reach was not as short as Jack expected. An ominous creak sounded behind him, and Jack snapped awake, alert and listening. Then there was no more noise besides the rush of the wind, and Jack leaned back in his old chair and drew an old blanket about him to fight off the cold. But a shadow moved in the corner, and Jack now stood. Was it his own shadow? Was the darkness playing tricks on his tired eyes? He grabbed a fire poker from the ashy fireplace, and with a weapon in hand, he once again, for the second time, tried to sleep. But now he couldn't. What if the werewolves had discovered him?

Jack could not sleep now. He had to light a candle and see for himself if the house was empty. He stood and moved towards the door to the hall, but found it locked. He tugged and pulled on the doorknob, but to no avail. Where were his keys? By the fireplace. Jack groped about until his hand rested upon the cold, stone, fireplace, searching for the peg upon which he hung his keys. But his hand wandered to far into the darkness and touched something furry, and warm.

* * * * *

When the villagers awoke they were dismayed to find that Jack was missing, and took his valuable skills in weaponry with him. And so as the sun rose the villagers made their daily pilgrimage to the home of the latest victim of the wolves. They found the front door unlocked, and they entered and searched the few rooms of Jack's home. The only sign of a grisly murder was the head of Jack's horse, discovered among the sheets of his bed. But they did not find Jack's body in the house. Instead, they found Jack's remains in the forge. Wedged into the furnace was an ashy mound. The villagers realized with horror that this was Jack. They could even make out the ashy remains of an arm or a foot, covered with black soot and barely recognizable. On the top of the pile sat Jack's eyeballs, perfectly intact despite the roasting the rest of Jack's body received.

"So they killed the seer." said Wilwa glumly.

* * * * *

Dead
Alcarillo – mod - impaled upon his own sword – NIGHT 1
dancing spawn of ungoliant – werewolf – pushed off the cliffs and into the sea – DAY 1
Jack – seer – toasted and roasted in forge – NIGHT 2

Living
Aiwendil – retired tutor
Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – lithesome and non-unionized pearl diver
Formendacil – disgruntled office clerk
Gurthang – (possibly unemployed) dockhand
Holbytlass – butcher
Kath – bum
Lhunardawen – polite little shepherd girl
Mormegil - repairman specializing in ships and docks
Rune Son of Bjarne – Union leader
The Saucepan Man - harbormaster
WaynetheGoblin – doctor
Wilwarin538 – fiddler

DAY 2 has now begun! Wolves, stop PMing, villagers can start talking now, and the Hunter needs to PM me by the DAY's end. Happy hunting!

[mormegil]

So the wolves strike back with ferosity I see. In reviewing Jack's post I can see how a wolf who would spend time examining every post would come to the conclusion that Jack was the seer. Now one helpful assumption would be that SpM is innocent. I'll explain why as I go.

Originally Posted by Jack

Rune, don't vote for someone just because of personal dislikes. Saucepan Man is an important person here. He thinks more clearly than a few of us. Since we have to vote somebody off today, and since there are really no good reasons to vote anyone off, I highly recommend we not vote one of the smart people off. Saucepan Man, mormegil, and Fordim all fall into this category. True, some of us might suspect them, but at this point in the game, it would be folly indeed to kill any one of these.

If SpM is innocent, which I believe, Jack indicates here one of his stronger affirmations (I know Folwren is female) of innocence. Then wisely includes others who are unknown, Fordim and me. Now this may tip the hat a little to the wolves but not enough to know he was the seer.

Originally Posted by Jack

And all I had to say to deflect that argument, I thought, was say that I didn't kill animals by day (therefore it would follow that I didn't kill humans by night). Guess I was wrong on that bit of logic. No. I don't kill anything at night. One would think that after spending all day at the anvil or shoeing horses (that sometime have the audacity to lean entirely on me while trying to fit the shoe), it'd be pretty obvious that all I did was sleep at night.

Here is another clue, subtle and innocent in itself but when coupled with the next it's devastating.

To Holbytlass's vote, I've one thing to say with a merry twinkle in my eye:

"Ha!"

I believe that all of this was too much for the wolves to miss. Most of the contention showed by Jack yesterday was directed at Holby, though I'm not sure of her guilt she's somebody to watch though she could be being set up by the wolves.

Now Jack voted for Formendacil, does that mean anything? He claimed to be a wolf but Jack's logic was simply that--He claimed to be a wolf. I'm not sure he was certain of his guilt. My assumption is that he dreampt of SpM as would most seers.

Now looking at votes I think it's fairly safe to assume that Boromir and Aiwendil are innocent, they cross posted at the same time thinking they would give Spawn the 3rd vote and put her in the lead. There is a possibility that they could be the cobbler but I doubt it.

There is somebody that isn't sitting right with me but I will review their posts and write more later.

[The Saucepan Man]

Durn! They don gone killed our Seer! Kind of like takes the edge off of us lynchin’ a Wolf yesterday. Takes t’edge of it, I tell thee.

Having reviewed poor Jack’s words yesterday, it seems to me as there were some things them there Wolves might of picked up on. So mayhaps they knew he was the Seer. Or mayhaps it was a clumsy attempt to frame Formendacil, on account of Jack’s vote.

Well, here be yesterday’s voting record - in chronological order like, with a tally of the state of voting after each vote were cast.

1. Gurthang votes for Formendacil (Formen - 1)
2. Lhuna votes for WaynetheGoblin (Formen - 1; Wayne - 1)
3. Wayne votes for Lhunadarwen (Formen - 1; Wayne - 1; Lhuna - 1)
4. Spawn votes for Aiwendil (Formen - 1; Wayne - 1; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1)
5. Formendacil votes for Dancing Spawn (Formen - 1; Wayne - 1; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 1)
6. Fordim votes for Spawn (Formen - 1; Wayne - 1; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 2)
7. Mormegil votes for Gurthang (Formen - 1; Wayne - 1; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 2; Gurthang - 1)
8. Kath votes for Fordim Hedgethistle (Formen - 1; Wayne - 1; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 2; Gurthang - 1; Fordim - 1)
9. Holbytlass votes for Jack (Formen - 1; Wayne - 1; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 2; Gurthang - 1; Fordim - 1; Jack - 1)
10. Jack votes for Formendacil (Formen - 2; Wayne - 1; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 2; Gurthang - 1; Fordim - 1; Jack - 1)
11. Rune votes for Wayne (Formen - 2; Wayne - 2; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 2; Gurthang - 1; Fordim - 1; Jack - 1)
12. Wilwarin votes for Formendacil (Formen - 3; Wayne - 2; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 2; Gurthang - 1; Fordim - 1; Jack - 1)
13. Boromir88 votes for Spawn (Formen - 3; Wayne - 2; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 3; Gurthang - 1; Fordim - 1; Jack - 1)
14. Aiwendil votes for Spawn (Formen - 3; Wayne - 2; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 4; Gurthang - 1; Fordim - 1; Jack - 1)
15. SpM votes for Fordim Hedgethistle (Formen - 3; Wayne - 2; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 4; Gurthang - 1; Fordim - 2; Jack - 1)

I’m off for a smoke an’ a think. Back in a mo’ with more thoughts.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am not sure the wolves knew that Jack was the seer, this could however just be because I did not see it my self. . .

The only thing that struck me as odd, was the post about the: twinkle in my eye

The other posts as Mormegil mentions seems to be rather inoccent and I am having it hard to belive that the wolves figured it out. I belive that they either were lucky or they spottet the twinkle in Jacks eye and took a chance.

About sauce pan beeing inoccent: That could very well be, but I need to give it more thought

- Rune

P.S. Great job getting a wolf the first day, I am impressed.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

I
The other posts as Mormegil mentions seems to be rather inoccent and I am having it hard to belive that the wolves figured it out. I belive that they either were lucky or they spottet the twinkle in Jacks eye and took a chance.

True the other posts do seem innocent enough but if you look at the whole picture it shows a different story. Though it doesn't help us lynch the next wolf I find it compelling.

[Holbytlass]

Oh no, the seer is gone! I just had a quick look, and it does make sense for SpM to be dreamt of first. What was that with Gurthang claiming to be seer? On the surface, it looks noble that he's drawing the wolves' attention away from the real seer (Jack) but wouldn't that also draw the ranger's protection away (or at least the ranger's best guess)? Please explain, Gurthang.

[Aiwendil]

Would that my advice had been heeded! The loss of our Seer is a grim stroke indeed. And our wolves are exceedingly crafty if they were able to discern Jack's true nature.

I commented yesterday that the votes for Formendacil looked odd to me. They look even worse in view of the fact that Dancing Spawn was a wolf. It seems unlikely that Spawn's two compatriots would sit back and let her get lynched - it may be that they made an effort to get Formendacil killed instead. Overnight I've been thinking that we should look carefully at those who voted for Formendacil. They are:

Gurthang
Jack
Wilwarin

And in a vote as close as the one yesterday, it seems unlikely to me that the either of the other wolves would have voted for Spawn. Those that did vote for Spawn were:

Formendacil
Fordim
Boromir
Aiwendil

Now, obviously, Jack was innocent. But Wilwarin looks rather suspicious to me at the moment. She voted for Formendacil when he and Spawn were tied at 2.

As for Gurthang - his behaviour is quite confusing. First he votes for Formendacil without explanation. Then he claims that this was an attempt to protect the Seer. Then he claims he is the Seer. Either he's a very clumsy villager or he's a very daring wolf or he's the Cobbler. I'm inclined to think the latter.

Well, those are my immediate thoughts.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

In reviewing Jack's post I can see how a wolf who would spend time examining every post would come to the conclusion that Jack was the seer.

‘Appen I agree with you there mormegil, my lad. You spotted the same things in Jack’s posts as I did.

Originally Posted by mormegil

My assumption is that he dreampt of SpM as would most seers.

‘Appen I agree with you there too. Mores the pity, as it puts me in a most precarious position. The only other villager that Jack might have dreamed of, based on what 'e said like, is Wayne, as young Jack stuck up for ‘im too. An’ I can see why a Seer might dream of young Wayne, given that ’e gives little away in what ‘e says. But I tend to think it was me that Jack dreamed of. Ah well, let ‘em come at me. I’ve survived Werewolves before. I can like as not survive ‘em again.

Now, for a look at yesterday’s votes.

The votes for Spawn (a most fitting name, I might say) came from Formendacil, Master Hedgethistle, Boromir88 and Aiwendil, in that order (though, as mormegil points out, the last two cross-posted). ‘Tis possible that Formendacil thought Spawn might be a safe vote for a fellow Wolf, but I doubt it, being as Spawn was already attracting suspicion for raising ‘er Seer issues with Aiwendil. So I am inclined to trust in Formendacil’s innocence, for now. Same goes for Master Fordim. My suspicion of him yesterday was genuinely held ‘n all, but ’tis greatly lessened now. I doubt that a Wolf would have voted for a fellow Wolf to put ‘er ahead in the voting. If I am right in this, Master Hedgethistle, I did you a disservice yesterday and apologise most ‘umbly.

Originally Posted by mormegil

Now looking at votes I think it's fairly safe to assume that Boromir and Aiwendil are innocent, they cross posted at the same time thinking they would give Spawn the 3rd vote and put her in the lead.

Well, I agrees with you as far as Aiwendil is concerned. Particularly as Spawn ‘erself voted for ‘im. Then again, I never suspected ‘im much yesterday. And I guess that probably goes for our crab farmer too, though I be less sure of ‘im. Reason being that ’e could have been sacrificing a fellow Wolf to gain the appearance of innocence. I certainly wouldn’t put it past ’im. And when I looked over ’is comments from yesterday, I was slightly troubled. ’E was flip-flopping a bit, if you take my meaning. ’E made a number of accusations early on, then backtracked on ’em and started puttin’ forward other suspects. ’E didn’t give any indication that he suspected Spawn until quite late on in the day, but then done went an’ voted for ’er, effectively condemning ’er (as ’e knew Aiwendil was likely to vote for ’er). ’Twould be a risky ruse for a Wolf, but one which could reward ’im richly if it meant we all pegged ’im as an innocent.

As for the other votes, Mistress Wilwarin’s vote stands out, being as it put Formendacil ahead of Spawn in the lyncing stakes. But I can’t helpt thinking that a Wolf wouldn’t be that obvious in tryin’ to save ‘er fellow Wolf. Funny, but ‘er “suspicious” vote makes Wilwa less suspicious in my eyes.

The votes of mormegil, Holbytlass, Kath and Rune all put forward alternative candidates when Spawn was on two votes. As such, they are mildly suspicious and so I reason that there may well be a Wolf among ‘em.

Can’t tell much from the votes of Lhuna and Wayne - which leaves young Gurthang. And ‘e troubles me still, particularly as I’m inclined to think Formendacil innocent, an‘ Gurthang was gunnin‘ for ‘im right up to the end of the day. And what was all that about trying to protect the Seer? Well, my lad, clearly you failed. Could well be a Wolf but, presently, I’ve got ‘im pegged as a possible Cobbler.