Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva

[mormegil]

My suspicion that I spoke of earlier is already being voiced by some. It is of course Wilwarin538 and not only because of her vote for Formendacil.

Anyway, since many others whove spoke accused someone, I might as well do the same. I'll use my number to choose three suspects, and I'll come up wit the best reasons I can think of.

3. Dancing Spawn of Ungliant - Well she embroiderd' me a case for my fiddle last week. It was red, I hate red, every person that lives within in a mile of the village knows that, plus red is the colour of blood, maybe she 'adn't seen blood for awhile and was missin what it looked like.

Now, these selections of hers were random, or so she says, so we can either believe her or disbelieve her. It seems a common wolfish trick to mention early a fellow wolf then back off suspicion just a bit.

Dancing spawn of ungoliant - Has gotten de mos votes thus far. Not sure bouts her. 5

Formendacil – E's posted a few times I believe. Though somethin bout him is strange. Like his last post for 'xample, very strange. 4

Gurthang – Seems one of da most suspicious like to me. A bit defensive, votes early. My vote may possibly be for him. 3

Jack – Talks a bit, makes 'imself sound smart, then advises us not to vote for smart people. Tryin to save 'imself perhaps? Vote possibly for 'im. 3

Wilwarin used a ranking system of 1 to 10 as 10 being innocent and 1 being guilty. 5 seems to be rather conspicuous a number to me, though of course I was a 5 too which adds to my suspicion (I'll explain in a second) She wants us to think that Spawn is still in her sights at this stage but give us an excuse for backing off later because she found others more suspicious. Now why I think having me as a 5 is more implicating of her guilt, ot me at least, is that I am innocent and a wise wolf would at least include one other with the same number so as to not draw attention to that.

Notice that she has Gurthang ahead of Formendacil in that post yet she votes for Formendacil

Out of the three with 2 votes Formendacil was the one who had more of my suspicion. I would like to vote for Jack but that would be rather piontless and I don't want to be accused later of keeping the double lynch. So I think the best choice would be:

++Formendacil

I hope that wasn't a bad choice.

Now this post could implicate her further or actually help to exonerate her. If she truly wanted to vote Jack I think you should have. There were still others after you to break the tie but if you truly thought Jack was guilty concience should dictate that you vote for him. But if you buy her altruistic explination then she is innocent.

Still most telling is that she broke the tie and voted for the person, in my mind, who was the least guilty looking of the three in the tie.

However with those that voted for Spawn is should be remembered as SpM pointed out they could be a wolf. I say this because as we know Spawn was going to have problems participating in our daily meetings and council so perhaps she was a sacrifice to help establish innocence. As for me I will be currently trusting SpM, and Aiwendil and to a lesser degree Boromir.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

On the surface, it looks noble that he's drawing the wolves' attention away from the real seer (Jack) but wouldn't that also draw the ranger's protection away (or at least the ranger's best guess)? Please explain, Gurthang.

An excellent point, Mistress Butcher. And it feeds my growing suspicion of Gurthang. I too would like to hear your explanation, my lad.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

But Wilwarin looks rather suspicious to me at the moment. She voted for Formendacil when he and Spawn were tied at 2.

But, like I said, it would 'ave been a risky vote for a Wolf. If Spawn gets lynched (as she did), such a vote would immediately put 'er under suspicion (as it has).

I would be more inclined to look at those who put forward alternative candidates. A much less riskier way of tryin' to save a fellow Wolf, since any votes that followed would mask it as a "saving" vote.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Either [Gurthang]'s a very clumsy villager or he's a very daring wolf or he's the Cobbler. I'm inclined to think the latter.

On that, you an' I are in agreement.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Well who’d have thunk that, eh? We got ourselves a wolf despite all the odds agin it. Wish I could claim some kind of special credit for having voted against her, but it was luck pure and simple…well…that and the good sense to listen to that there Aiwendil bloke.

So here’s the four who voted for that hairy fiend Spawn:

Formendacil & Me (we voted simultaneously by cross-posting so we’re tied for first)
Boromir88 & Aiwendil (who also voted simultaneously by cross-posting so they’re tied for second)

Much as I would like to claim that these people are all in the clear, I can’t (except for myself, cause I know I’m not a wolf).

Formendacil may have voted for a fellow wolf simply to avoid the appearance that they are working together. A daring move, but not so daring on the first day with votes going all over the place – the odds that his vote would lead to a hanging were slim.

Boromir88 and Aiwendil fall under similar logic. Once I had voted for Spawn, giving her two votes, maybe one of them (or both of them) followed wolfish logic of sacrificing her to get themselves in the clear for good…. And given that Spawn’s vote was for Aiwendil it might have been an elaborate attempt to really put him above all suspicion at the game’s very beginning…

Now that having been said, I think it more than likely that all three of these fellow villagers is innocent, but I can’t be completely sure yet.

And a big thank you to the Man of the Sauce Pan for having guaranteed my survival this night by voting for me. With someone of your considerable capacity and tenacity gunning for me the wolves are going to be sure to leave me alive so that you can continue to try and convince the villagers to lynch an innocent pearl diver…which, now that I think of it, is a wonderful strategy for a wolf…hmmmm…let me see…

1) I suggested a way of detecting wolves – Saucepan Man claims that my strategy is not useful and casts suspicion on me…

2) I vote for the wolf Spawn and Saucepan Man votes for me, at a time when – as he admits – there is no way I will be lynched, thus preserving my life (when Spawn’s fate is already sealed, in part by me, see above) and keeping me around to call suspicion on my head. Now, in his latest post he's retraced his steps a bit and claims that now he thinks I'm innocent...genuine...or part of a brilliant ploy -- "only an innocent would apologise for making that mistake; I am the model of sincerity. Trust me, trust me!"

I have two eyes in my head and they are firmly fixed upon you my good Harbour Master.

Oh but he’s not alone: Gurthang is still very suspicious to me and not so much for his early voting as for the fact that Spawn defended him. There's been some talk of him being the cobbler, which does make a certain amount of sense to me: he's certainly been complicating things and saying much while contributing little of real clarity. If I had to vote right now, I can thinks of where my vote might go....but there's still a day to go....

And that Lhuna is mighty tricksy it seems. Says this about mormegil:

Seer comments on Aiwendil's suggestion came off a bit scary to me, I don't know why.

And this about Spawn:

does not suspect Gurthang's early voting. Has doubts on Aiwendil's Seer suggestion.

Now why, I ask, are morm’s doubts about Aiwendil’s suggestion “scary” to her, but Spawn’s “doubts” pass without real comment? Then she goes and votes for an extremely ‘easy’ target, the early-but-infrequent poster Wayne.

I wants to be clear -- I've been casting quite a bit of suspicion about here but I'm making no accusations, as yet. This is all in the first flush of my horror for the loss of our Seer and an immediate reaction to what happened yesterday. Those as I've looked at here may very well say things this day that remove them from my sights -- while others as are currently looking innocent may make me nervous.

I still says that the trick here is to identify groups -- folk as seem to act alike. So far, I think we can lump together

Rune
Wayne
Gurthang

as the suspicious looking ones, saying or not doing things that makes them stand out -- stupid wolves? clumsy innocents?

Boromir88
Aiwendil
Saucepan Man

as the 'known' (too-good-to-be-true?) innocents..or ar they brilliant wolves?

Wilwarin
Formendacil
mormegil
Holbytlass
Kath
Lhuna

as the hapless innocents -- don't seem to be proceeding with any particular agenda of any sort, seem to be guessing and almost niaf (for example, mistakenly voting for people...)

Like I said, the best strategy for the wolves is to hide by acting different from one another, so I would suggest that we search for one wolf in each group.

Oh yes, as for meself -- well, I know I'm not a wolf so I would probably fit into group one or two, depending on your view of me.

[Boromir88]

Poor Jack, I 'ad no clue she was the seer. I's thought it wus sumone else, but I aint gonna go into who.

Jus' to make a comment on me spekkin' Panman. Sorry, I neva lurned 'ow to spek, 'haps if Aiwendil and I survive dis mess, I can lurn.

I'm gonna seperate evryone into groops.

Most likely Innocent:
Aiwendil
Fordim

For right now I'm gonna accept deese two as innocent, cus of their votes fur spawn yesterday. Take my vote in whuteva way you like But, to me if eider Aiwendil or I wus a wulf, it wuld seem 'ighly illogical to vote fur her, knowing we culd save 'er.

Fordim fur puttin' Spawn a'ed of evryone else, another crucial vote. I dun think a wulf would make such a crucial vote fur anutha wolf so early in the game.

As of right now, acceptin' them as innocent:
Panman
Formendacil

Formendacil, cus of 'is vote fur Spawn, 'es likely innocent. But, 'e could be a wolf who dun think 'is vote would 'ave caused Spawn's death. 'Owever, I take 'im as innocent right now.

Sauce, cuz 'es generally 'elpful. 'Es slightly suspishus cus I dun quite unnerstand 'is votin' reasons yesturday, per'aps 'e can explain?

Nuthin I can do now will change today's outcome.

Dunno wut 'e means when 'e says 'e cant change the outcome now. Per'aps I'm readin' too much into it, but jus' sounds slightly fishy. Though, I s'pose the Seer would of dreamed of 'im the furst night, but I aint gonna take that fur granted.

Unsure:
This is the biggest group, cus I jus' cant get a reddin on 'em. My logic is to try to narrow down as many as possible, cuz the less choices of whos a possible wolf, the better chance of catchin' one. Sumtimes ya jus' cant think if ya got too many names runnin' in yur 'ead. So, I always like too narrows it down a bit. Process of 'liminashun my pa liked to call it.
Gurthang
Lhuna
Wayne
Mormegil
Kath
Wilwarin
Most of deese are unsure cus they aint spekkin' a lot. Which, not spekkin' a lot isn't wolfishness, 'owever it gets ya wonderin'. The only one that 'as been spekkin' more dan the others would be mormegil, but I'm unsure 'bout 'im becus of 'is vote (I'll splain in a minute).

My two biggest surspects:
Rune
Holbytlass
I's been suspishus of these two fur mos' of the day yesturday, and their votes dun 'elp calm my suspishuns. I would 'ave voted fur Holbytlass yesturday, but I dun like the idear of addin' anutha name in, cus we 'ad seven, and logic tells us one is prolly a wolf. So, I jus' dun wanna add anutha name, but Holby and Rune are my two main surspects.

Now frum votin' yesturday. I take (fur today) these three as innocent, cus of the vote.
Fordim
Aiwendil
Formendacil

This leafs us with two wolfs, an' nine peeple total. (I'm excludin' myself, cus wuts the poin'. I'm tryin' to nail a wolf usin' my own 'ead and gut feelin'). One of the three above, may be a wolf, but remember, process of 'liminashun, we wanna liminate as many peeple as possible. 'Least one of these peeple is a wolf.

Panman
mormegil
Kath
Rune
Holbytlass
Wilwarin
Gurthang
Wayne
Lhuna

Right now I 'ave no strong ressin to think Panman is a wolf, so I aint considerin' 'im.

The group I'm interested in, is the ones that voted after Fordim put Spawn up by two.

mormegil (for Gurthang)
Kath (for Fordim)
Holby (for Jack)
Rune (for Wayne)
Wilwarin (for Formendacil)

I shuld surspect one of these as bein' a wulf. Now, I know I've been pretty suspishus of Holby, but I will wait and see sum more, cus I realized she voted fur Jack. This could be a set up by the wolves, but per'aps not, I'll wait fur now.

The mos' suspishus looks to be Rune or Wilwarin. The tied votin' between Spawn, Formendacil, an' Wayne. I shuld surspect one of these wus tryin' to create as much trouble for us innocents at the end on who to chose, an' 'opin we dun pick der buddy. But, it didn't wurk out as planned. So, right now my top surspects are:

1: Rune
2: Wilwarin
3: Holby

[Boromir88]

Correcshun on my las' post, Rune tied things between Spawn, Formen, an' Wayne. Wilwarin broke the tie. I still 'old them as my two big surspects, jus' wanted to correct that.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Boromir

The only one that 'as been spekkin' more dan the others would be mormegil, but I'm unsure 'bout 'im becus of 'is vote (I'll splain in a minute).

I'm not sure you explained. Do you care to?

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS of Gurthang's "OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS"

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS

Subject: Gurthang
Analysis: Early vote.
Approximate possible reasons: 6

1. Gurthang is the Seer and dreamed of a wolf.

Gurthang dreamed of a wolf last night. Rather than coming out right away and saying that he was the Seer, he decided to make a more direct approach. This way, the wolves might not realize he’s the Seer, but rather a bumbling innocent. Later, when the Seer dies, the villagers will be able to come back and see that Gurthang knew Formendacil to be a wolf.

2. Gurthang is the Seer and did not dream of a wolf.

Gurthang is trying to draw attention to himself because it is unexpected of Seers. Seers tend to stay more quite and less accusing. By trying to be the center of attention, he is hoping that the wolves will look elsewhere for the Seer.

We can now set aside these theories...Gurthang ain't no Seer...

3. Gurthang is a wolf.

Gurthang is a wolf attempting to hide out in the open, thinking that others would assume a wolf to be smarter than to draw so much attention to himself.

Can't think of any reason to set this one aside.

4. Gurthang is an innocent protecting the Seer.

By accusing one person, Gurthang is hoping to nail a wolf. Thus, the wolves will think he is the Seer. They kill him during the night. This saves the Seer, and proves the one Gurthang accused to be a wolf.

This didn't quite work out...did it?

5. Gurthang is an innocent trying to spark conversation.

The town was quiet, so Gurthang was trying to flare up some conversation.

Seems to me there's less drastic ways of doing that.

6. Gurthang is the cobbler.

Gurthang is simply trying to confuse everyone.

For those who haven't noticed, the only two options from this list -- which Gurthang himself has thoughtfully provided -- that remain unproblematically believeable are numbers 3 and 6....

I still ain't making any accusations. I'm just going through yesterday's posts again and this one kind of leaped out at me -- like a pearl from an oyster shell you could say.

[Aiwendil]

Fordim mentioned a matter to which I've given some thought: our harbourmaster. I was going to wait and observe him longer without voicing any suspicion, but now that the topic's been broached, I might as well speak my mind.

I said earlier that the wolves must be crafty indeed if they picked Jack out as the Seer. Now, he may not quite speak the king's Adunaic, but The Saucepan Man is a clever fellow. If he's a wolf, he's a very good one, and any signs will be subtle in the extreme.

YesterDAY, he voiced suspicion of Gurthang and Fordim - notice that he did not suspect Dancing Spawn. Of course, it's completely possible (indeed, rather likely) that he simply failed to guess she was a wolf. On the other hand, he did just what I think a smart wolf would do in that situation. He refrained from adding fuel to the fire burning against Spawn, but he made no obvious move to save her. And he saved his vote for the end, giving it to Fordim only once Spawn could not be saved. Today he retracts his accusation of Fordim - as indeed he must. But notice that he does not voice suspicion of Wilwarin, claiming that her vote was too obvious for a wolf. A genuine analysis or a subtle effort to save his surviving comrade?

Now there's the matter of Jack's defense of SPM. Mormegil seems to surmise that Jack dreamt of our harbourmaster and found him innocent. I agree that this is a strong possibility. On the other hand, Jack did not leave any clear statement on the matter.

I'm certainly not suggesting we lynch SPM now or in the foreseeable future. But I wouldn't put him on a "likely innocent" list just yet either.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

I vote for the wolf Spawn and Saucepan Man votes for me, at a time when – as he admits – there is no way I will be lynched, thus preserving my life ...

I voted for you 'cos you looked suspicious to me. Plain an' simple. I don't see 'ow that put you under any more suspicion than a number of others. And, if you are innocent, then, by my reckoning, the reason you (or any other innocent) weren't attacked is 'cos the Wolves thought they'd spotted the Seer.

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

Now, in his latest post he's retraced his steps a bit and claims that now he thinks I'm innocent...genuine...or part of a brilliant ploy

Simple fact is you look to be innocent on account of yer having voted fer a Wolf. Sommet I could not have known 'til the Wolf was lynched. Armed with that knowledge, I revised me view of yer. But I am quite 'appy to reconsider if you care to give me reason to.

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

Gurthang is still very suspicious to me and not so much for his early voting as for the fact that Spawn defended him.

Good point that, and sommet I'd noticed too. But, as far as 'is early vote is concerned, the same can be said for a nummer of others.

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

Like I said, the best strategy for the wolves is to hide by acting different from one another, so I would suggest that we search for one wolf in each group.

But there are two Wolves left and three of yer groups! Although I tend to think that there is a Wolf in each of yer first and third groups. Currently, I would put you (and Formendacil) in yer second group.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

'Es slightly suspishus cus I dun quite unnerstand 'is votin' reasons yesturday, per'aps 'e can explain?

I set out me reasons for voting fer Master Hedgethistle throughout most of what I said yesterday. As I've said, me opinion on 'im has since changed, on account of 'm having helped bag a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Dunno wut 'e means when 'e says 'e cant change the outcome now.

Put simply, my crab herding friend, whichever way I voted at that time, Spawn would still have been lynched. The only way I could 'ave affected the result was to 'ave voted for Formendacil, tying 'im with Spawn. Which would 'ave been foolish, as it would 'ave caused a double lynching, and so was not really an option.

One thing afore I go for me morning nap. There's been a lot of talk 'bout Wilwa's vote. Now, before she becomes today's bandwagon, I would ask everyone to consider whether a Wolf would really have voted in the way she did. Not sayin' she's definately innocent. But the obvious Wolfishness of her vote makes it seem un-Wolfish, to my mind.

[The Saucepan Man]

Can't really argue with yer analysis, Master Scholar. Everthin' that I've said 'as been motivated by a genuine desire to catch these 'ere Wolves. But I don't expect you to take my word for that and I don't expect anyone to take me innocence fer granted like. No one is above suspicion and I certainly ain't regarding anyone (including you) as innocent fer sure. That said, there are most definately those as I regard as more suspicious than others.

My thoughts on Wilwa are genuine. I'm not saying she shouldn't come under suspicion. Just suggesting that people consider things that might look suspicious on the face of it from all angles like before castin' their vote. D'you see?

Now, if you don't mind, I need to get me beauty sleep.

[Gurthang]

Wow, talk about blow for blow. Excellant job on taking out a wolf, though luck it most likely was. Yet it seems the wolves are equally as lucky. Let's hope their luck ends at that.

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Oh no, the seer is gone! I just had a quick look, and it does make sense for SpM to be dreamt of first. What was that with Gurthang claiming to be seer? On the surface, it looks noble that he's drawing the wolves' attention away from the real seer (Jack) but wouldn't that also draw the ranger's protection away (or at least the ranger's best guess)? Please explain, Gurthang.

Well, if all eyes would have been drawn, then it would have worked. Meaning that if both the Ranger and the Wolves would have believed me, then no one would have been killed. Also, I was kind of assuming that the Seer wouldn't be leaving hints this early. Obviously, I was wrong on all counts.

Master Fordim, I appreciate your analysis of my analysis of myself. I would like to note that you eliminate number 4 simply because it failed. Just because it failed to the worst degree doesn't mean that wasn't what I was trying to do. You pushed that aside rather quickly, and that could be seen as wolvish by some.

As far as me being the Cobbler, well, I'm simply not. And don't say that means I'm a wolf, because I'm not that either. (Yeah, like anyone will believe me just saying it.)

Now, call me crazy, but I'm beginning to wonder about Formendacil. I voted for him yesterday to try to distract the wolves and get people talking. I didn't suspect him then. But the thing that is really bugging me is why would the Seer back up my vote? I don't get it. Why not vote for someone who didn't have a vote, rather than voting to put someone into the lead? And Formendacil was the first one to vote for Spawn, but it was an early vote and could very well be a 'safe' wolf vote that went bad. All that isn't much to go on, but I'll be keeping an eye open.

One last thing, everything that Aiwendil makes incredible sense to me. (Not saying I agree 100%)

[Holbytlass]

I'm getting suspicious of Aiwendil because of the finger-pointing between Dancing Spawn and him. Spawn also voted for him early on, so early there were no votes against her so she didn't even know she would have to try and save herself. Aiwendil waits to see what becomes of her(post63) then joins the bandwaggon to be part of bagging a wolf.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

And in a vote as close as the one yesterday, it seems unlikely to me that the either of the other wolves would have voted for Spawn. Those that did vote for Spawn were:

Formendacil
Fordim
Boromir
Aiwendil

I love how he subtlely tries to steer everyone away from the group he's in, because no one has ever heard of a wolf voting for another wolf. The other wolf probably tried to save her and he joined in.

[Formendacil]

Hmm.... Things have taken some really interesting turns since I last visited this thread (busy life... for more details, push 1).

At the moment I'm a bit on the tired side (well, it's just after Midnight, so I ought to be in bed), so I'll not do more than say that, with so many votes coming up for me, it is quite likely that at least one of the Wolves voted for Spawn, thinking it a safe vote. Because of our respectively tied early votes, I would not think Fordim to be guilty, thus narrowing it down to Boromir and Aiwendil.

However, one of the wolves could just as easily have been hiding among the masses that were trying to kill me. I don't suspect the initial voter (Gurthang), but only because of his timing. Jack, of course, is off the hook by reason of his sadly death-proven innocence. That leaves Wilwa.

Of these three, Boromir, Aiwendil, and Wilwa, I think we may find ONE of our wolves, but I think it unlikely that we will find both. As of yet, I have no idea which of the three is most suspicious, but I'll try and sort out some thoughts there in my next post. (Don't expect it for 12 hours or so, though).

Goodnight and adieu!

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

I'm certainly not suggesting we lynch SPM now or in the foreseeable future. But I wouldn't put him on a "likely innocent" list just yet either.

If I were the Seer, I know I would have dreamed of him or Master Fordim. I actually feel quite comfortable (for now) assuming that Jack did indeed dream of Master Saucepan and backed him up based on that dream. In a few days, if Master Saucepan has not been killed by the wolves, I will examine him more closely. For now, he's on the 'look at later' shelf.

And now I'm beginning to wonder about Wilwa, too. Look at this:

Originally Posted by Wilwarin538

So the votes are:

Spawn (2)
Formendacil (2)
Wayne (2)
Lhuna
Aiwendil
Gurthang
Fordim
Jack

Out of the three with 2 votes Formendacil was the one who had more of my suspicion. I would like to vote for Jack but that would be rather piontless and I don't want to be accused later of keeping the double lynch. So I think the best choice would be:

++Formendacil

I hope that wasn't a bad choice.

I just don't know. She broke the tie, which is good in itself. But she broke it by 'saving' a wolf and pushing the death of an unknown. And the fact that she admits that she isn't voting for her top suspect interests me, too. She didn't even vote for her second suspect: me. Both Jack and I received 3's on her list. Rune, Holbytlass and Formendacil all had 4's. So her vote went to someone who could have been as low as 5th on her list. Also notice that all of the five except Holbytlass had already received a vote. If she was more convinced of Jack than she was of Formendacil, she could have voted for him and left the tie-breaking to someone else. It would not have been a wasted vote, it would have made it a four-way tie.

[Lhunardawen]

Oh dear! Mister Jack has been killed, and he was the Seer! May he sleep in peace...

It's a pity our Ranger had not seen this coming; he/she could have protected him. But his hints were a bit too subtle. I myself had no idea he was the Seer either; I just think some of his words were a bit weird. Thanks Mister mormegil for pointing them out and how they hint his Seership. Funnily, no offense sir but that makes me suspect you just a teeny weeny bit because you could have seen that if you and your fellow wolf (if any) were deciding who to kill last night, and just presented it to us toDay in the guise of helpfulness. But don't worry, it's just a teeny weeny bit, it's nothing to worry about.

Good thing we've lynched the lycan dancing spawn (I can be in no way polite to her now), so that gives us one less werewolf to think about. However I believe that at least one of her two remaining companions are among those we consider wise, for they have spotted the Seer when the rest of us (or maybe it's just me) didn't. It could have been luck, but if they were merely counting on luck they could have chosen one of those we consider wise as their victim for the Night; I thought this would be a given for the werewolves to do. But they didn't, and I was wrong.

For now I'll do a bit of reminiscing and see what I can come up with. I'll be back with a relatively early vote, because this time is all my shepherding duties will allow.

[Lhunardawen]

But first off:

Originally Posted by Fordim

Now why, I ask, are morm’s doubts about Aiwendil’s suggestion “scary” to her, but Spawn’s “doubts” pass without real comment? Then she goes and votes for an extremely ‘easy’ target, the early-but-infrequent poster Wayne.

That, kind sir, is called a little girl's un-understandable mind. I told you I didn't know why Mister mormegil's comments were scary, they just were. Maybe because he was looking through a werewolf's perspective in his doubt, I don't know. But then I was hesitant to vote for either of them because I think they were both being a bit sensible. I voted for Mister Wayne because he did absolutely nothing, and that for me is irksome. It is better for me if a person does something the least bit suspicious than if he/she does nothing at all to help us determine if he/she is innocent or not.

*sigh* Anyways, my rambling.

Lady Kath - living up to her bum-ness? Too 'detached' from the game, too cool and dispassionate. Her not caring much for her mistake involving Fordim and Formendacil (voting for the former while describing the latter in her explanation) was unsettling, plus the explanation was lousy. Could be an honest mistake, could be not. "Suspected" Jack but did not vote for him. I think she's scaring me a bit. Only a werewolf could not care less about a life - anyone's life - and treat it so lightly. My vote could be in this direction toDay.

Mister mormegil - if he were a wolf, he could have voted for me, Wayne, Formendacil, or Aiwendil to create a tie with spawn and possibly save her. Voted for Gurthang, giving a different interpretation to the words of Aiwendil that pushed spawn to her death. Helpful much, and could be a target for Night death. As yet, still worth watching.

Mister Fordim - his grouping technique made a bit sense, but its being stereotypical is unsettling. Gave very sensible reason behind his vote, and since I don't think a wolf would vote for a fellow wolf on the first Day - and push her to death that much - I think for now he's innocent. Then again, he could be the basket the wolves are placing all their eggs into, we never know. That would be too risky, though.

Mister Wayne - a hiding wolf, or an innocent with really nothing to say? If this is how he will be in our plight I think we're better off without him; if he's innocent, at least he's one less to think about. Now that's not very polite, is it not Lhuna? Well I'm not voting for him again for now and will give him a chance to speak up and be of any help.

Mister Gurthang - I still believe he's innocent and just trying to spark conversation in his early vote. After all, the first Day's pretty much random. His analysis of himself could be a ploy to attract to himself attention: hiding in the open or sacrificial ordo? Claims innocence and helpfulness. I lean towards believing him now.

Lady wilwarin - senseless to repeat everything said about her, but I commend you all for seeing these things. She didn't worry me yesterday, but now I see that there is reason to worry.

I'm willing to let Holby, Formendacil, and Rune be for now.

I am inclined to believe that Misters Aiwendil, Boromir88, and SpM are innocent, the latter I trust was revealed by our Seer before his death.

Not much time! Must vote!

++Kath, begging your pardon.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Aiwendil waits to see what becomes of her(post63) then joins the bandwaggon to be part of bagging a wolf.

As far as I can make out, there was never really a “Spawn bandwagon”. The votes were evenly split amongst a number of candidates for most of the day. Also, Aiwendil did not turn on Spawn at the end of the day when he saw she was likely to be lynched. He had been voicing his suspicion of her throughout. If anyone “turned” on Spawn at the end, it was Boromir88.

Still, yer accusation of Aiwendil, who seems to be tentatively trusted by most, speaks in yer favour, to my mind Mistress Holby. A Wolf is unlikely to go against the flow like that.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

... with so many votes coming up for me, it is quite likely that at least one of the Wolves voted for Spawn, thinking it a safe vote.

A vote for Spawn was never really a “safe” Wolfish vote, given the close nature of the voting. And it seems to me that both Aiwendil and Boromir88 were aware of the likelihood that the other would vote for Spawn when they voted.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

In a few days, if Master Saucepan has not been killed by the wolves, I will examine him more closely. For now, he's on the 'look at later' shelf.

Well that’s just dandy, Gurthang me lad. If I don’t get mauled by Wolves, I get misself lynched for bein’ one! Damned if I do, damned if I don’t. Leastways, you’ve given the Wolves a reason not to kill me for the time being.

Oh, one more thing ‘bout Mistress Wilwa’s vote. Had Jack not died last night, much the same could be said ‘bout ‘is vote for Formendacil as is bein’ said ‘bout ‘ers. An’ ‘e was our Seer.

Like our Crab Farmer, it seems to me to be sensible to eliminate from my current thoughts those who have said or done things that are more likely to suggest their innocence than their guilt. Sommet to do with some Razor used by a bloke called Occam.

On that basis, I am discounting from my current considerations:

Aiwendil
Boromir88
Fordim Hedgethistle
Formendacil
Holbytlass
Wilwarin538

It should be clear from what I’ve said why I regard each of them as more likely to be innocent than guilty, though please note that I am not dismissing any of ‘em entirely. Just discounting ‘em for current purposes.

So, unless things change dramatically, my vote today will most probably come from the remaining group.

[Kath]

Apologies for my detachedness Lhuna, but bumming is a hard pasttime to keep up with! I have found a way to avoid confusion between Fordim and Formendacil now so there need be no worries about that. I'm quite glad now though that my misvote happened, because I fear that had I voted for Formendacil as intended it might have been him who was lynched and not spawn, who I must admit to having had no suspicions of whatsoever! My suspicion of Jack was because I could find nothing else to be suspicious of. Though I had seen nothing in his posts to indicate Seerness as well, which makes me think we must have some extremely clever wolves.

Which brings me onto the thought I had while reading through this. Saucepan Man has cleared himself via Jack's words. In terms of associations I would be looking at Sauce and morm.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Mistress Lhuna

If this is how [Wayne] will be in our plight I think we're better off without him

Not if 'e be gifted ...

Originally Posted by that no good layabout Kath

Saucepan Man has cleared himself via Jack's words.

Well, course I'm satisfied of me own innocence. But, as I've made clear, I don't expect anyone else to take it for granted. I do believe that Jack dreamed of me and left a hint should he die. Whether you believe that or not 's up to you.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Boromir

The mos' suspishus looks to be Rune or Wilwarin. The tied votin' between Spawn, Formendacil, an' Wayne. I shuld surspect one of these wus tryin' to create as much trouble for us innocents at the end on who to chose, an' 'opin we dun pick der buddy. But, it didn't wurk out as planned. So, right now my top surspects are:

I dont get it earlyer in your post you say that me and Hobly is your 2 main suspectsm why the change? Seems a bit odd.

Yes I did make it a tie and when I did so I realised it might seem a bit wolfish. Anyhow I still belive it was the right ting to do.

1. Because the tie was allready there, my vote did not create any possibilety of a dubbel lynch. (exept if no one votet after me) May I remind you that I did not vote 10. min. before time but an hour, plenty of time for people to change the outcome.

2. As Borormir says I wantet to create other possibeltys than just, Spawn and Formendacil as they both seemed non-wolfish to me.

3. I fully share Lhuna's view of wayne!

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Mister Wayne - a hiding wolf, or an innocent with really nothing to say? If this is how he will be in our plight I think we're better off without him; if he's innocent, at least he's one less to think about.

to this Sauce Pan said:

Not if 'e be gifted ...

Just brilliant. . .

We dont know! and will never know until the giftet are dead. Not even if they give us 1000 clues can we know, it could just as well be a wolf trying to stay alive. Plus Wayne will never be able to give us those clues if does not change and how can the wolves not figure out if he does that?

I just can't see Wayne beeing of any use in the village. He will allways be a souce of doubt, I know I will never be sure about him. (unless somting drastic happens)

I will return with more suspisions and accusations later. (It is way more fun than having to defend your self)

[Boromir88]

I'm not sure you explained. Do you care to?

I sed I wus unsure 'bout you cus of your vote. The others on the lis' cus they aint talkin' a lot. But I said these votes looks suspishus, and one may possibly be a wulf.

The group I'm interested in, is the ones that voted after Fordim put Spawn up by two.

mormegil (for Gurthang)
Kath (for Fordim)
Holby (for Jack)
Rune (for Wayne)
Wilwarin (for Formendacil)

So, therefur I'm unsure 'bout you.

If anyone “turned” on Spawn at the end, it was Boromir88.

I dun surspect Spawn through mos' of the day yesturday, but before I voted, I did explain my reasonin'. I wanted to vote fur my biggest surspect (Holby), but there were seven peeple voted fur so far, so logical tells us one was prolly a wulf. I dun think why a big hype was aroun' Formendacil. Wayne 'as disappeared, but quietness aint no sign of a wulf. So, I said I would vote for Spawn (who above all the peeple with the multiple votes wus the mos' suspishus) or vote fur sumone else with one vote.

Also, 'for I voted I wanted to make sure the othuh voters were there, cus, it was gettin' close and I dun wanna end it in a tie. When I 'eard Aiwendil there, and 'e sed 'e wuld vote fur Spawn, I decided too too. (An' I tell you lucky I did, or we may 'ave killed Formen yesturday)

Now I as' you, and this may make me surspected, but I dun care. If yous peeple werent so busy talkin' 'bout all these cunnin' wolf tricks, you might be catchin' the real perpetrators who are obvious wulfs. Sumtimes da answers are sittin' right in front of yur faces, but you cant see 'em, cus your too concentrated on sumone trickin' you.

But, dis may get me surspected...if I wus a wulf, and knowin' Aiwendil wus votin' fur Spawn, why the 'eck wuld I vote fur her, wid Formendacil up by one vote at the time?

No, throw out all this nonsense about wulves tryin' to throw a blanket over our eyes. The only peeple throwin' blanket over our eyes, is you durn peeple that try to think up these crazy theories.

If we's a gonna fin' a wulf we got to do process of 'limination. We gotta narrow down as many peeple that we gotta pick frum. It's easy fur the wulves, cus they already know, but fur innocents we gotta narrow sum peeple down. Now, like Panman, based on votin', or jus' cus they dun seem suspishus, these peeple seem innocent, an' we shuldnt consider votin' fur today.

Formendacil
Fordim
Panman
Aiwendil

Now, sum more 'ere. Sir Fordim brings up Gurthang, and the only thing that troubles me with Gurthang is you said you were tryin' to protect the Seer. This dun make sense, cus yur basically tellin' the wulves..."HEY I'M NOT THE SEER, BUT I'M TRYIN' TO LOOK LIKE IT SO KILL ME". Sorry, sir, but that aint gonna wurk, whys the wulves kills you if you admit yur not the seer, but admit ur tryin' to look like 'im? Looks pretty suspishus.

Also, a not on Wilwa. See I wuld tend to agree with Panman, and think why wuld a wulf make such an open mistake an' break the tie, for sumone who seems innocent? Well, this does look like quite a big slip up fur a wulf. But, I mus' ask Panman, per'aps Wilwa dun anticipate the death of Spawn, why should she if da peeple lef' to vote were me, Aiwendil, and Panman, and nun of us really shewed big interes' in lynchin' Spawn? So, per'aps Wilwa felt it was a safe vote, an' that Spawn wusnt gonna be lynched.

'Owever, I think right now Rune looks the mos' suspishus, cus 'e tied everythin' up. And no matter wut 'appens, on who's lynched, it looks like a decently safe vote fur a wulf. So, Rune right now is my biggest surspect still.

[Boromir88]

I dont get it earlyer in your post you say that me and Hobly is your 2 main suspectsm why the change? Seems a bit odd.

I' alreadin' explained the reasin' me tinks our unionboss needs to take reedin' classes agin.

Now, I know I've been pretty suspishus of Holby, but I will wait and see sum more, cus I realized she voted fur Jack. This could be a set up by the wolves, but per'aps not, I'll wait fur now.

I mark it as a set up by the wulves.

Wulves like to do a few things.

1) Keep peeple alive who are the main surspects. As long as the 'ave the peeple who are the main surspects aroun' it makes findin' a wulf 'arder.

2) Set peeple up. They like to make it seem sum peeple as bein' more suspishus (say by killin' the person that sumone else voted fur). And that's what I think the case with Holby is (as of right now), she was set up. The wulves killed the person she voted fur to make 'er look mor' suspishus.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

The only explaination you give is that Wilwa createt a tie and Hobly votet Jack. . .
Later you realise that you have made a mistake and Wilwa broke the tie, you do how ever maintain her as a chief suspect only second to me. Why? You dont tell us.


At the least we can conclude that allthough you do write legthy post's and seem to think thing's throug, you suspicions is build on sand. (so are mine, by the way)

[WaynetheGoblin]

Well I just woke up from my long sleep. Lhuna is the most suspicous to me her early vote is weird. I will vote some time at four and probably for Lhuna I will be going to school now.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Rune

Just brilliant. . .

We dont know! and will never know until the giftet are dead ... Plus Wayne will never be able to give us those clues if does not change and how can the wolves not figure out if he does that?

I just can't see Wayne beeing of any use in the village. He will allways be a souce of doubt, I know I will never be sure about him.

I most certainly agrees that young Wayne is unhelpful. Point is, that’s ‘is way. ‘E’d be unhelpful whether ‘e was a Wolf, a gifted or an ordinary innocent, d’you see? So him not sayin’ much just don't seem to me a good enough reason to vote for him, not just yet anyways. And, by the by, ‘e doesn’t need to give us clues if ‘e is a remaining gifted. ‘E just needs to do ‘is job when the time comes.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

...if I wus a wulf, and knowin' Aiwendil wus votin' fur Spawn, why the 'eck wuld I vote fur her, wid Formendacil up by one vote at the time?

And that, my friend, is why you’re on me “innocent for now” list for the time being. But I remain wary that it’s sommet a Wolf might do to gain the village’s trust.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

So, per'aps Wilwa felt it was a safe vote, an' that Spawn wusnt gonna be lynched.

Na, it seemed clear that Aiwendil was likely to vote fer Spawn. Besides, the only other likely candidate for lynching at that stage was Formendacil and, if ‘e is innocent, ‘er vote would have made 'er look just as suspicious if ‘e was lynched.

Originally Posted by WaynetheGoblin

Lhuna is the most suspicous to me her early vote is weird. I will vote some time at four and probably for Lhuna ...

Communicative as ever, eh Wayne me boy? Anyone care to explain time zones to the lad?

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Well, if all eyes would have been drawn, then it would have worked. Meaning that if both the Ranger and the Wolves would have believed me, then no one would have been killed. Also, I was kind of assuming that the Seer wouldn't be leaving hints this early. Obviously, I was wrong on all counts.

An explanation, but what doesn't sit right with me is that at the end Gurthang comes right out and proclaims to be the seer. Just think what would happen today if the wolves hadn't got Jack last night. Jack, the true seer, would have to decide to reveal himself or not.

If Jack did, then we'd all be deciding to lynch Gurthang or him, either way Jack would be dead by next day (lynch or attack).

If Jack didn't reveal himself, then he knows we'd all be following Gurthang's lead and would lynch at least one innocent.

Gurthang, it's one thing to hint and try to draw wolves' attention from the gifted. It's another thing when actions corner the gifted into revealing themselves and be at the mercy of the wolves, especially the seer.

top suspects
Gurthang
Aiwendil

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

An explanation, but what doesn't sit right with me is that at the end Gurthang comes right out and proclaims to be the seer. Just think what would happen today if the wolves hadn't got Jack last night. Jack, the true seer, would have to decide to reveal himself or not.

If Jack did, then we'd all be deciding to lynch Gurthang or him, either way Jack would be dead by next day (lynch or attack).

If Jack didn't reveal himself, then he knows we'd all be following Gurthang's lead and would lynch at least one innocent.

Gurthang, it's one thing to hint and try to draw wolves' attention from the gifted. It's another thing when actions corner the gifted into revealing themselves and be at the mercy of the wolves, especially the seer.

top suspects
Gurthang
Aiwendil

Good thoughts, but they are wrong.

First, If I had been killed, thus saving the Seer, it would have been obvious that I was not the Seer.

Also, for what it's worth, I was planning on ending my scheme today no matter what. You are absolutely correct that I could not rationally continue to call myself the Seer when I'm not. Had I survived the night, and Jack not have been killed, the first thing I would have done was explain that I was not the Seer and say why.

I'd also note that I 'revealed' right at the end of the Day so that there was no chance that Jack could come out and refute my psuedo-claim.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

My oh my oh my…but things are getting interesting. Much as I need to earn a living, I think those oysters will have to stay a-waiting a bit longer as the situation here seems dire and I wants to try and do something about it.

Seems to me that there’s a number of things to consider in voting today:

1) Who is more likely than others to be a wolf? This is a little less difficult than it was yesterday, but still not at t’all an easy task, I fear. The person we lynch this DAY is still more than likely to be an innocent than not. Which leads me to point number…

2) Which innocents could we more easily afford to lose? A horrific thought, and one that I’m not all that easy a-making out in the open, but as there’s some already who are thinking this way, I feel a bit more comfortable about it. Let’s face it: there are some hereabouts who are either wolves, or innocents who are not helping. If it comes right down to a vote between two people about whom I’m equally suspicious, but one is clearly not as helpful as another, I would vote for the less helpful one. I hopes as that doesn’t make me seem bloody-minded or callous – but I am, after all, a pearl diver and more used to dealing with the hard shells of oysters than the softer bellies of people!

3) Which people would make the most dangerous wolves? This is an idea that may not make much sense, but I’ll do my best. There are some hereabouts who already seem to have been given suits of armour that would seem to guarantee their innocence – more interesting it seems to me that these folk are the ones as have been spending the DAY giving those suits of armour to each other…. Just as we needs to think about which innocent we can afford to lose, we needs to think about which folk would make the most dangerous wolves to keep around. I’m’s not suggesting that we lynch a person simply because they look too innocent, or are making too much sense – just that if I were a smart and canny wolf, the first thing I would try to do is make sure I looked like a bright and canny innocent…

So where’s that get me? Not all that much further along, I admit it. But mayhap it can help me a slight bit. There’s no math here, no perfect solution, so don’t think that what I’m about to do is supposed to be that. But it’s a way of accounting for things after a manner. I’m a-going to go through each of the three points and give folk one point each just to see who might add up to the most….

1) Who is more likely than others to be a wolf?

Gurthang
Rune
Wayne
Lhuna

2) Which innocents could we more easily afford to lose?

Gurthang
Rune
Wayne

3) Which people would make the most dangerous wolves?

Aiwendil
Boromir88
Saucepan Man

Now afore ye all begin to ask me for my reasons, I’ll just say read my posts from before this one and you’ll see that I makes these points elsewhere…and a lot of other folk, I know, are making the same kinds of noises.

So by my counting the three as have two points each are:

Gurthang
Rune
Wayne

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Also, for what it's worth, I was planning on ending my scheme today no matter what. You are absolutely correct that I could not rationally continue to call myself the Seer when I'm not. Had I survived the night, and Jack not have been killed, the first thing I would have done was explain that I was not the Seer and say why.

I'd also note that I 'revealed' right at the end of the Day so that there was no chance that Jack could come out and refute my psuedo-claim.

But Gurthang didn't even come on to post for about 5 1/2 hours! IF Jack had not been killed, that would be a long time for him to debate and most likely reveal himself for the sake of the village. Of course I see why Gurthang would want to confuse the wolves, but why would he want to confuse the village?


Fordim, I see where you are probably going to get alot of slack for your idea, but I think you are just being brave and putting down what we (definetly me) are probably thinking.

[Aiwendil]

Meseems some of you are putting Wilwarin out of mind too hastily. The strongest thing, after all, that has been said in her defence is that her vote was too obviously wolf-like!

I think that a reasonable approach to analyzing a person's actions is as follows. First, assume that person is a wolf. Consider his or her behaviour and ask yourself how likely it is that a wolf would act that way. Now, assume the person is innocent. Ask yourself how likely it is that an innocent would act that way. Then compare your results. The key, you understand, is that what matters is not just how wolf-like one's behaviour is; what matters is whether one's behaviour is more likely for an innocent or for a wolf.

Now take Wilwarin. How likely is it that a wolf would vote for Formendacil, breaking the three-way tie? I think The Saucepan Man is right in saying that a wolf would be hesitant to do so. On the other hand, it seems to me that there's also a fair chance a wolf would take the chance and try to save Spawn, perhaps even counting on the obviousness of the maneuver to clear her.

Now, how likely is her behaviour for an innocent? What was so suspicious about Formendacil? It's true that Jack voted the same way, which indicates that there's some chance an innocent would vote that way. Nonetheless, it looks to me to be a move much more likely for a wolf (a daring wolf) than for an innocent.

That was perhaps a long-winded way of saying a simple thing, but I think that my schema for analyzing a person's behaviour is worth laying out.

The other suspicious looking character at this point is, if you ask me, Rune. He escaped my notice earlier because I was looking so intently at the strange anti-Formendacil party. But his vote for Wayne looks to me more likely as a wolvish move than an innocent one. If the general consensus is that Wilwarin should not be lynched toDAY, I would probably be amenable to the idea of lynching Wayne, unless there are some new developments.

[mormegil]

There has been some decent discussion today but I would like to recommend a little plan that may or may not put some heat on our wolves. We should take about 3 to 4 of the people who are viewed as most suspicious and get votes for them, possibly even a 3 way tie. We have a decent chance of selecting one wolf in that group and then we can see how some react and how the remaining votes are cast. It might be a logistical problem getting it organized because we have no known innocents but it might be worth a shot.

At the top of my list is (in no order)
Wilwa
Rune
Formendacil

Just a quick idea for consideration and it should either be quickly accepted or quickly dismissed I don't want to spend the remaining portion of the day wasted on debating it.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

An interesting tactic morm but I'm not sure it will really work. First, organising it would be really tough. Second, to outsmart it the wolves would simply need to vote early and spread their votes among those three, leaving the 'hot seat' of tie-breaking to innocents. Third, while the odds are good there's a wolf in that pack it's not guaranteed. Fourth, any mistake in planning would open the chance of a double-lynching. Fifth, as you yourself admit the only useful information it would glean would be from looking at the last people to vote, but perhaps those people voted late because they could not get on to post earlier in the day.

Sorry -- I know it may look like I'm trashing your idea, but that's not really it at t'all. As I hope has been clear from the get-go, I'm all for group effort directed against the wolves, and I likes the idea of putting them in the hot-seat...I'm just not sure that this here is the best way of a-doing it.

[Holbytlass]

I disagree also, there are too many factors of people's time and situations that would look wolfish in a one day forced plan. Wolves are generally caught by their voting records over a period of DAYS.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

A vote for Spawn was never really a “safe” Wolfish vote, given the close nature of the voting. And it seems to me that both Aiwendil and Boromir88 were aware of the likelihood that the other would vote for Spawn when they voted.

True enough, I suppose. All the same, past experience should tell most of us that Wolves can do some very unlikely things- both rational and irrational.

However, looking at these three, none of them is really leaping forward as a potential Wolf, although I still think it likely that one of them could be hiding in there. And, since I said I would, I'll do some analysis on them...

Starting in alphabetical order...

Aiwendil has, as expected of someone with his well-known intellect, blended into the game quite well. He's kept a fairly low profile, staying out of the spotlight, while being present enough and thoughtful enough to not be considered "quiet". He could be a quiet, clever, risk-taking wolf, or he could be the innocent he seems to be.

Boromir88 has amused/annoyed us with his "dialectial differences" so far in the game- which could be a simple innocent's way of having fun, or a clever wolf's distracting ploy. There's a lot of thoughtful, serious content in his posts, but the first thing one gets out them is his dropped "g"s and his "wulves". And a clever ploy it would be, for most roleplaying players of Werewolf tend to be innocents- at least in the games I've played.

Wilwa has kept a pretty low profile this game- which could be a Werewolf lying low while more vocal innocents capture all the attention, or it could be the woes of a school-aged girl, or it could be the growing experience of a Werewolf player (I remember my steadfast conviction in her Werewolfishness a few games ago, totally unproven, that would likely not have happened had she played a more quiet, serious hand). Whether this proves Werewolfishness or not, I am clueless.

As I said, SPM is right that none of the three are really suspicious. However, I think I am justified in saying that any of the three COULD be Werewolves.

Oh, and to answer a question that Aiwendil had:

What was so suspicious about Formendacil?

Since Day 1 has no past evidence to go off of, the voting is more truly random than on any of the subsequent days. I guess proclaiming oneself a Werewolf (even in sarcasm) is as a good an excuse as any to vote for someone...

[Holbytlass]

I dismiss Morm's plan, there are too many factors in people's lives that could be seen as wolfish in a one day forced vote. Generally, wolves are caught by their voting record over a period of days.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

There are some hereabouts who already seem to have been given suits of armour that would seem to guarantee their innocence ...

I bain’t regarding anyone’s innocence as guaranteed. But I am sticking with me method of narrowing the field down by discounting, for present purposes, those who seem to me to be least guilty. I listed them earlier. I don’t deny that there may be a Wolf among ‘em, but it’s quite possible there ain’t.

As for the others (among whom I am sure there is at least one Wolf and quite possibly two):

Gurthang: Now ‘e’s explained ‘isself a bit more fully, I can see that there is some sense in what ‘e says. But, if ‘e was tryin’ to protect the Seer, ‘e made a pretty ham-fisted job of it. ‘Tis possible ‘is intentions were good, but Mistress Holby makes some good points against ‘im. So I still ‘ave my eye on ‘im. Earlier, I thought ‘e might be a good candidate for Cobbler, but I reckon a Cobbler would bide ‘is time a bit longer afore trying to spread confusion.

Kath: Bain’t said much, but what she ‘as said ‘as involved twistin’ words to suggest they mean sommet which they don’t. She did it yesterday with Jack and she done the same thing today with me (see #98 and my response at #99). ‘Er vote yesterday is mildly suspicious, being as it widened the field with Spawn on 2 votes. Claims not to ‘ave spotted the clues to young Jack’s Seerishness, which may well be true (I didn’t misself ‘til after I learned of his death), but it seems slightly Wolfish to make a point of it. Other than commenting on mormegil’s and my opinion that Jack dreamed of me, has made no accusations today, which may suggest that she is trying to give as little away as possible.

Lhunadarwen: Another who claims not to have spotted the Seer clues (as to which see me comments above with regard to Kath). I found ‘er comments about Wayne slightly worrying since, as I pointed out earlier, ‘tis ‘is way to say little, and we shouldn’t do away with ‘im on account of that alone – not just yet, anyways. Other than that, not much to go on. I don’t regard her early vote as particularly suspicious, as there is good reason for it.

Mormegil: ‘Is vote yesterday is mildly suspicious, for the same reason that Kath’s vote is. ‘E seems to be ‘elpful ‘n all, but the very fact that there is little to pin ‘im down on concerns me slightly. Still, I can’t see any solid grounds for voting for him. There be a few points as I’d like ‘im to explain, though, which I will come to in a mo’.

Rune: There is sommet not quite right about our union boss, and I bain’t just talkin’ ‘bout ‘is troublesome political views. ‘Is vote yesterday is more than slightly suspicious. As others ‘ave said, it created a three-way tie and might be seen as a way of lessenin’ the chances of Spawn bein’ lynched. Some’ow, ‘is comments today seem overly defensive to me, and ‘e’s made no accusations whatsoever, as far as I can see, other than to support Lhuna’s comments ‘bout Wayne. Nor ‘as ‘e said much that I would regard as helpful in tryin’ to track down these ‘ere Wolves. If anyone is tryin’ to stay uncontroversial and not say ought which might be used against ‘im (aka tryin’ to fly unner the radar), ‘tis Rune. An’ ‘e too claims not to ‘ave spotted the Seer clues (as to which, see me comments on Kath). Taken separately, none of these points mean very much. But they do all add up in me mind to give me a bad feelin’ ‘bout ‘im.

Wayne: What can I say? Wayne’s Wayne an’ ‘e don’t change. ‘E could be a Wolf, but there’s not a lot to go on other than ‘is continuin’ tit-fer-tat against Lhuna. A day may come when I will vote for Wayne, when it’s a choice between ‘im an’ those I regard as less suspicious, but ‘tis not this day. I’m prepared to give ‘im the benefit of the doubt for now.

All of which means that I’ve narrowed down me suspects, for today at least, to three: Gurthang, Kath and Rune.

Now, Master mormegil, a few questions if you don’t mind. You’ve outlined yer suspicions ‘bout Wilwa before and I understand ‘em, even if I don’t agree with ‘em. But I am unclear as to why Rune and Formen now feature among your top suspects. Would you care to explain why you suspect ‘em?

Originally Posted by mormegil

There has been some decent discussion today but I would like to recommend a little plan that may or may not put some heat on our wolves.

I can’t see too much difference betwixt yer plan and what’s likely to ‘appen in practice anyways. Those who are seen as most suspicious will accumulate votes and we can see ‘ow those who vote later react. How is your plan any different? Mayhaps you are just suggestin’ that we should be organisin’ a shortlist of candidates. But, if that be the case, ‘ow do you suggest that shortlist be selected? Surely it would be open to manipulation by our two remaining Wolves and yon Cobbler.

And now, ‘aving seen Fordim’s (de)constructive comments on yer plan, I find misself in agreement with ‘im.

I will most probably vote near the deadline again, as is my wont. But, if you're after finding out who I am most suspicious of, well I’ve named ‘em above.

[mormegil]

Now, Master mormegil, a few questions if you don’t mind. You’ve outlined yer suspicions ‘bout Wilwa before and I understand ‘em, even if I don’t agree with ‘em. But I am unclear as to why Rune and Formen now feature among your top suspects. Would you care to explain why you suspect ‘em?

Now Saucie you can't really expect me to tell you everything I think and don't. Often times I suspect some I don't list and one or two on my lists I might not suspect as much. I'll leave it at that though one person I meant to add to that list was Gurthang. He's just not sitting right with me.

In regards to Formendacil I will say this, in years as a repairmen I've met a lot of people and learned a lot of things not related to repairmanship so I've picked up a bit of Werewolf Lore in my day. I learned of a subterfuge that can be successfully implemented it's affectionately called The Fea. I am rather familar with this approach, more so than all of you expect maybe our local bum, and what Formendacil did on Day 1 by claiming to be a wolf is a text book move for The Fea. So I will not write him off though I did say on day one it seemed to be sarcastic rhetoric. I'm still watching him and hoping for him to say a bit more so I can either be convinced of his innocence of his guilt.

Oh and consider my plan to be off the table. No offense was taken by any who were critical of it. I didn't know if it would work myself, but I wanted to present it anyway.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

As the time I will have available to engage in this here debate is coming to a close in the next couple of hours (I will have to vote by no later than 4:30 EST) I suppose as I have to start thinking about where to cast that vote. I was a-hoping that there might be some voting action to begin with but so far there’s only been the one cast by Lhuna for Kath.

Well, to be blunt and honest, I still don’t have a good read on who the wolves may be, but that’s to be expected I suppose after only two DAYs. So’s I suppose I’ll have to give it me best shot using what criteria I have:

1. Good chance of being a wolf, based on votes and actions this DAY as argued for by other folk
2. Not too great a loss if innocent
3. May be innocent, but if a wolf, far too dangerous to leave alive
4. Just seems to be acting wolfishly, either because:
4.1 Making unfounded accusations
4.2 Carefully controlling the conversation with occasional comments that implicate without committing
4.3 Suggesting plans of action that I ain’t so sure will work out
4.4 Being too blasted quiet
4.5. Being too blasted noisy

Aiwendil: 3, 4.2 (2)

Boromir88: 3, 4.2 (2)

Fordim Hedgethistle: I ain’t no wolf. (0)

Formendacil: 3, 4.4 (2)

Gurthang: 1, 2, 4.1, 4.3, 4.5 (5)

Holbytlass: 1, 2, 4.2 (3)

Kath: 4.1, 4.4 (2)

Lhunardawen: 1, 2, 4.1 (3)

Mormegil: 1, 4.3, 4.5 (3)

Rune Son of Bjarne: 1, 2, 4.4 (3)

The Saucepan Man: 1, 3, 4.2, 4.5 (4)

WaynetheGoblin: 1, 2, 4.4 (3)

Wilwarin538: 1, 4.4 (2)

Well, I have to admit that I’m surprised that The Man with the Pan for Sauce is in second place! I would have thought that he would be much lower down the list, so either me method is suspect (which I hope it ain’t as it’s all I’ve got right now) or I really do needs to keep an eye on that feller.

I’m also surprised by the number of folk who’ve scored threes: Wayne, Rune, morm, Lhuna and Holby

But there’s only as one there that’s got five points agin him: Gurthang. I ain’t going to vote yet, not yet I ain’t – I want to give it the last hour that I have…

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

But Gurthang didn't even come on to post for about 5 1/2 hours! IF Jack had not been killed, that would be a long time for him to debate and most likely reveal himself for the sake of the village.

Yes, you have me at that. I wasn't able to come and say my piece nearly as early as I had hoped.

Yet, I would say that Jack wasn't a fool. I believe he would have waited to see if I tried to lead the village. If I would have started saying so and so's a wolf, then he would have probably come out and put a stop to it. Also, I think he would have waited to see if I continued my ploy or if anyone was even willing to follow me. If I proclaimed myself as Seer and then either a) did nothing or b) nobody believed or listened to me, then he would have had no reason to come out. I think he would have been quite patient in the situation.

Although, that all is just conjecture, and it seems that Fordim now deems me completely expendable(or maybe even a wolf). Which probably means he's ignoring everything I say.

[mormegil]

Fordim 1, 3, 4.2, and 4.5 (4)

Though I find it interesting that we can combine 1 and 3