Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva

[Aiwendil]

Fordim: As fond as I am of quantitative methods, I'd hesitate before putting faith in your system. Why? Two reasons:

1. I think it undervalues your point number 1. Wolves will be willing to say anything; it seems to me that their voting is a much more reliable signal.

2. It overvalues your point 4, since it gives up to 5 points for vague "just seeming to act wolfishly" behaviour.

I said earlier that I'm inclined to think Gurthang is the Cobbler, and I remain so inclined. Maybe I'm being obtuse.

I will probably vote fairly late again, as I'll be available until the end of the DAY and I want to stay on top of any new developments. But just to let people know where I stand, I am in favour of lynching either Rune or Wilwarin today. Since few seem to agree about Wilwarin, I will probably end up voting for Rune.

[Aiwendil]

Cross-post with Gurthang and Mormegil.

Mormegil - why do you put Fordim down for 1? His vote yesterday was for Spawn.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Fordim: As fond as I am of quantitative methods, I'd hesitate before putting faith in your system. Why? Two reasons:

1. I think it undervalues your point number 1. Wolves will be willing to say anything; it seems to me that their voting is a much more reliable signal.

2. It overvalues your point 4, since it gives up to 5 points for vague "just seeming to act wolfishly" behaviour.

I said earlier that I'm inclined to think Gurthang is the Cobbler, and I remain so inclined. Maybe I'm being obtuse.

I will probably vote fairly late again, as I'll be available until the end of the DAY and I want to stay on top of any new developments. But just to let people know where I stand, I am in favour of lynching either Rune or Wilwarin today. Since few seem to agree about Wilwarin, I will probably end up voting for Rune.

Fair 'nuf Aiwendil m'lad -- in particular your point about voting over voicing, but as yet there's not a lot of the former, and too much of the latter -- but please bear in mind, as I'm not suggesting that this method be THE Method as everyone uses: I'm just trying to lay out as clearly as I can how I'm thinking for myself. This model will no doubt change in coming DAYS (assuming and hoping, that is, that I lives to see them).

Fordim 1, 3, 4.2, and 4.5 (4)

Fair 'nuf mormegil me boyo, but so far as I'm using my system 1 and 3 probably can't be combined -- but you can view things as you want to makes up your own mind.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

Well, I have to admit that I’m surprised that The Man with the Pan for Sauce is in second place!

Or mayhaps it's 'cos you engineered it that way Master Hedgethistle. And mayhaps you'd care to explain why you assigned yer nummer 1. to me.

As fer you, I'd assign you 3, 4.1 (based on the above), 4.2, 4.3 and 4.5, giving you 5 points. Yet I still think ye more likely innocent than guilty. I just reckon it's yer system as is up the creek.

Originally Posted by Me, Myself and I

I will most probably vote near the deadline again, as is my wont.

I've thought this over and I've changed me mind. I reckon I'm gonna vote early today. Normalwise, I like to 'ang around at the deadline to try to stop any ties. But I'll leave that to someone else today, so's me vote will at least count for sommet. As I said in me previous post, and fer the reasons stated there, I've a bad feelin' 'bout Rune. And the more I think on't, the badder me feelin' 'bout 'im gets. So:

++RUNE SON OF BJARNE

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Or mayhaps it's 'cos you engineered it that way Master Hedgethistle. And mayhaps you'd care to explain why you assigned yer nummer 1. to me.

Egads me good Harbour Master ye're quite right to have caught me on this! The number 1 for you there was a mistake plain and simple, so's I'll erase that now and place ye down at 3 points with that other group -- for all the peace of mind that'll give me, as I first gave you the 1 based on the suspicions I myself voiced against you this morning -- which I then doubled up again with my numbers 4...

Methinks that maybe the system is not perfect -- but likes I said when I posted it, it's not meant to be perfect and it's all I've got right now....

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Fordim

The Saucepan Man: 1, 3, 4.2, 4.5 (4)

Aiwendil and Fordim, this is why I gave Fordim a 1 and 3. I notice that it has been pointed out to you Fordim and I would agree and lower you to a three by removing 1 but I'm not putting you out of my sights though.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Aiwendil and Fordim, this is why I gave Fordim a 1 and 3. I notice that it has been pointed out to you Fordim and I would agree and lower you to a three by removing 1 but I'm not putting you out of my sights though.

Nor I you mormy -- to the glee of wolves everywhere I'm sure!!

I know I'm not a wolf, and I'm pretty blasted sure you're not a wolf, and I'm relatively sure that Saucy's not a wolf, and I'm almost entirely sure that Aiwendil is not a wolf and yet here we all are, a-going around and around with each other....

Still and all, I think it's probably just talk right now, and prudent talk at that -- it's the votes as will tell the real story...

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Egads! Time has flown! I have to cast me vote now, and I won't be able to look in again until later...well...I might be able to take a peak, but my time with chatting is over so...

++GURTHANG

[Boromir88]

I shall also most likely vote fur Rune today, unless if sumthin' dramatically changes.

Ok, so 'eres who I've been seein' as the main "talk of the day" so to say.
Rune
Wilwarin
Wayne
Gurthang

Rune, I've explained my suspishuns on 'im earlier today, and 'es done nuttin' to sugges' anythin' different. And in response as to why Wilwa was secon' on my list, Rune. Cus, in breakin' the tie 'tween Spawn, Formendacil, and Wayne, by votin' for Formendacil it looks like she's tryin' to save Spawn. Thats why 'er vote is suspishus an' she's secon' be'ind you.

Wilwarin, I've already talked 'bout. In response to sumthin' Panman said...

Na, it seemed clear that Aiwendil was likely to vote fer Spawn. Besides, the only other likely candidate for lynching at that stage was Formendacil and, if ‘e is innocent, ‘er vote would have made 'er look just as suspicious if ‘e was lynched.

True, tis true, but bein' as it wus Day 1, and most peeple ('sides the wolves) were shootin' in the dark with their votes. So, I imagine a wulf culd easily 'scape gettin' outta that jam if Formendacil was lynched and turned out to be an innocent.

Wayne an' Gurthang just seem to be makin' it difficult fur evryone to git a 'old on. I will say, the wulves (if they aint wulves) will keep these two around, jus' cus they cause so much controversy amongst the innocence. They aint gonna kill 'em in the night, so we eider 'ave to put up with 'em, or lynch 'em.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am sorry I have not been around today, but that is just the way things ended up.

Althoug I am not flattered by the things said of me, I can surdenly understand most of them. I will try to make up for my absence in my next posts, but I will have to make some analysing first.

I should be online from now until night starts.


- Rune

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Now I as' you, and this may make me surspected, but I dun care. If yous peeple werent so busy talkin' 'bout all these cunnin' wolf tricks, you might be catchin' the real perpetrators who are obvious wulfs. Sumtimes da answers are sittin' right in front of yur faces, but you cant see 'em, cus your too concentrated on sumone trickin' you.

But, dis may get me surspected...if I wus a wulf, and knowin' Aiwendil wus votin' fur Spawn, why the 'eck wuld I vote fur her, wid Formendacil up by one vote at the time?

No, throw out all this nonsense about wulves tryin' to throw a blanket over our eyes. The only peeple throwin' blanket over our eyes, is you durn peeple that try to think up these crazy theories.

Okay, now Boromir's got me looking at him. In this post, he says don't try to make up schemes that wolves might do; it will just confuse us. Makes sense to me. But then he starts putting out schemes, not entirely unlike the ones he just denounced.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Wulves like to do a few things.

1) Keep peeple alive who are the main surspects. As long as the 'ave the peeple who are the main surspects aroun' it makes findin' a wulf 'arder.

2) Set peeple up. They like to make it seem sum peeple as bein' more suspishus (say by killin' the person that sumone else voted fur). And that's what I think the case with Holby is (as of right now), she was set up. The wulves killed the person she voted fur to make 'er look mor' suspishus.

Also note that these posts were back-to-back and only 10 minutes apart. That's quick shifting, Boromir.

Wilwa is still about the same for me, her vote yesterday seems wolfish. That doesn't mean she is, but it looks that way regardless.

And now Formendacil has added to my suspicion. He posted about three people, yet just listed possibilities, never telling which he thought. Just this or that, not very helpful to me.

Holbytlass is 95% innocent in my eyes. All of her arguments (against me ) seem sound and reasonable, despite their falseness. Master Saucepan I (mostly) believe to be innocent, too, because it makes sense that Jack would dream of him. And Aiwendil's posts just keep astounding me with how reasonable they are. I especially like his how an innocent would act vs. how a wolf would act.

So, in everpopular list format(no order):

Likely innocents:
Holbytlass
Master Saucepan
Aiwendil

Suspect:
Wilwarin
Formendacil
Boromir


On a completely other tangent, Fordim's lists and numbers just keep coming and coming, and then going in circles. I don't really see it as a wolvish plot, but it just seems to be taking up space. Cobbler jumps to mind.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

I should be online from now until night starts.

Call me a nit-picker or whatever, but that just sounds too strange not to say something about. Why would you say 'until night starts'? Shouldn't it be 'until Day ends'?

I say that because an innocent would only care about Days, because that's the only time they are able to be active. A wolf, on the other hand, will be active at night, so will of course be anticipating the start of that phase. It seems like he's ready for night to start.

I think that those of you who suspect Rune may not be so far off. I haven't really looked at him before. I think I'll do that now.

[WaynetheGoblin]

I dicided i will not vote. It wouldent help anyone at all also I will not be posten again today.

[Boromir88]

Gurthang, that pos' you give, why it wus so close to my previous one, wus cus I 'ad crossposted with with Rune, an' wanted to respond to it.

My pos' 'ere:

Wulves like to do a few things.

1) Keep peeple alive who are the main surspects. As long as the 'ave the peeple who are the main surspects aroun' it makes findin' a wulf 'arder.

2) Set peeple up. They like to make it seem sum peeple as bein' more suspishus (say by killin' the person that sumone else voted fur). And that's what I think the case with Holby is (as of right now), she was set up. The wulves killed the person she voted fur to make 'er look mor' suspishus.

Was a response to Rune's post 'ere:

I dont get it earlyer in your post you say that me and Hobly is your 2 main suspectsm why the change? Seems a bit odd.

And it was right after my other one, cus I 'ad crossposted with 'im.

Rune wanted to know why I 'ad changed frum surspectin' 'im and Holby, to 'im and Wilwarin. An' I sed I dropped my suspishuns on Holby, cus it appears to me that the wolves are tryin' to set 'er up. That's when I splained wut wulves typically do.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am having great truble finding clues to who is a wolf and who is not, but I hope you will be accept that I am not great at finding these clues.

I can see why people (including my self) thinks Wilwarin is a wolf. She seems to be avoiding confrontation and be more or less anonymes. I don't know if I find it that incrimenating that she votet for Formendacil. Could very well be a wolf, but I dont think I will vote for her today.

I remain skeptic of Wayne and would like to make him disapier at once, but it does not seem realistic.

Gurthang is clearly the one witch confuses me the most. I would like to have him stay a while, but I might have to vote for him to save my self.

Boro I realy dont know what to think of him, it might just be the fact that he think that I have fangs that makes me look upon him with skepsis.

Aiwendil Seems to be an ordo and for now I belive in his inocens.

Saucepan Is very rational and I belive he is inocent, in fact I am very much sure.

I will try to make a post with more substance, but I am having trouble to judge people by there votes yesterday as I belive that most of them are random.

-Rune

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Call me a nit-picker or whatever, but that just sounds too strange not to say something about. Why would you say 'until night starts'? Shouldn't it be 'until Day ends'?

Nit-picker ! There I said it.

It was just chose to write it that way and gave it no thought what so ever...

To be honest it seems like your trying to frame me and save your own skin, you are either doing this because you are an wolf desperatly trying to survive or (like me) you are an inocent player who is not that skilled.

Is Gurthang Fuzzball or not ?

I cross postet with boro, wayne and gurthang earlyer.

[mormegil]

Just by way of update we have a total of 3 of 13 votes though Wayne said that he wouldn't be voting so 4 of 13 if we believe him

Lhuna voted for Kath
SpM voted for Rune
Fordim voted for Gurthang

All are worthy candidates in my opinion. I expect to see both Rune and Gurthang wait till late to vote.

But let it be known that if Wayne doesn't begin to participate a bit more this lowly repairman will be willing to get rid of the town doctor though it may cause me some pains when I hit my finger on a hammer. I don't like overly quiet people especially when there is no vote.

[Boromir88]

Watch out, yur 'bout to delve into the mind of Boro, you culd go insane. So, not includin' myself there are two wulves amongst twelve peeple (and yes sum of this is repeated frum my earlier posts, but I'm tryin' to think through before I vote, cus I 'ave to go soon).

These peeple (fur today atleast) I'm not considerin' as wulves (though one quite likely is):

Fordim
Panman
Aiwendil
Formendacil
mormegil
Lhuna
Holby
Kath

I'm a little leery 'bout puttin' Lhuna in there, cus she's on a different clock, and 'as trouble postin', with us, so we dun 'ear a lot frum 'er, but I really 'ave nuttin' to think she's a wulf right now.

So this leaves:

Wilwarin
Rune
Gurthang
Wayne

Wayne's in there cus 'es generally been up'elpful, and I agree with mormegil, unless 'e 'elps more, I will certainly be in favor of lynchin' 'im.

So, basically, I'm vascillatin' between Wilwarin, Rune, and Gurthang.

Wilwarin cus of 'er vote yesturday and I dun know where she's run off to today? But apparennly no one is relly gonna vote fur 'er today.

I'm leery 'bout castin' my vote fur either of these two, basically cus, neither one of 'em may be a wulf. But, It's my civic duty to vote, an' I'm gonna need to make a decision eventually.

Gurthangs plans just dun make sense to me, why would 'e claim to be protectin' the Seer? Since, 'e comes out and says 'e is protectin' the Seer, obviously the wulves aren't gonna be fooled by it. That just dun make sense, and 'e 'as been rather scrappy today, findin' whuteva 'e can on anybody to get suspishun away frum 'im. Though this could jus' be cus 'is neck is on the noose.

Rune, I've been surspectin' all day and I will say Gurthang's comment about the "night and day" thing does make 'im look rather fishy, and I dun think it's bein' nitpicky. I jus' find it wierd 'e refers to bein' 'ere until Night starts. Simply cus I 'avent really 'eard anyone put it that way. Then again, voting fur 'im makes me nervous cus I'm just not totally sure, and could be totally rong.

Ok, those are me thoughts, I jus' need to clear out my 'ead, now I mus' be 'eddin out. And I will vote fur:

++Rune

[Kath]

Gurthang is sitting uneasily with me today, though I think that might be due to the influence of the views of others. From the way his actions are described through the words of people like Boro he appears to be more Cobbler-ish than wolvish though.

Saucepan Man I mentioned earlier. The thing is that I have an automatic suspicion of anyone who makes a great deal of noise in the village, even though it is often the quiet ones that are the wolves (e.g. spawn).

I just don't have any real suspicions today and I don't want to make a mistaken vote like I did yesterday. I will though vote because it's necessary really and I think it does help when people use voting records to help them analyse others. So I will vote

++Wayne

Because he has declined to vote and because, to be honest, he posts even less than I am doing at the moment, he barely mentions supicions if he does at all and you can gain practically nothing from what he has said.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

Formendacil: 3, 4.4 (2)

I'm quite flattered, my dear Fordhim that you think me dangerous if a wolf... Mind you, you missed the last game when I was a wolf, and botched it from Day 1, but is a flattering thought... Misguided, of course, but anyone would say that about themselves.

As for the 4.4 charge, I must confess to being guilty on that score. The heavier pressures of actually having a job and the rush of the dreaded pre-Christmas season have fallen up me... but still, that's no excuse I suppose for a mariner Numenorean in a Vala-forsaken fishing village.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

And now Formendacil has added to my suspicion. He posted about three people, yet just listed possibilities, never telling which he thought. Just this or that, not very helpful to me.

What if my mind is undecided? I mean, really... if the evidence says that all of these three could be Werewolves, but quite possible aren't, then shouldn't I trust my own logic and feelings on that matter? This isn't Day 1 anymore, and there is no reason for random voting, unless I am the Cobbler and have a death wish...

And speaking of Cobblers, the temptation to vote for you, my dear Gurthang, is great, and the spirit is weak, so I shall...

Here's my reasoning: I really have no clue who the Werewolves are. There are several suspicious-looking people, but nobody who actually screams "WEREWOLF" to me. We do, however, have someone who screams "COBBLER!".

I am speaking of Gurthang, of course. His actions yesterday, and moreso today, have been very Cobblerish. And although the Cobbler is not, in and of itself, dangerous as a Werewolf is, he (or she!) is a confusing player, and just as well gotten rid of if we want to flush out the real Werewolves- which we do.

For this reason, Gurthang should, in my opinion, be voted off. Whether he is the Cobbler or not is almost immaterial, since the facts are that he has been acting a good deal like one.

And yes, I do realise that between his vote on Day 1 and his accusation against me today this may look a little like revenge. So what? Don't YOU want to kill the Werewolves' team?

++Gurthang

[mormegil]

7 of 13 (counting Wayne's no vote)

Lhuna voted for Kath
SpM voted for Rune
Fordim voted for Gurthang
Boromir voted for Rune
Kath voted for Wayne
Formendacil voted for Gurthang

Interesting Boromir gives Rune the lead and Kath doesn't further extend that lead and then Formendacil ties the votes at 2 with a vote for Gurthang.

I will continue to watch and wait.

[Gurthang]

I haven't had a chance to look at Rune like I had hoped, so I'll have to go with one of the three I named earlier.

Boro gave me an explaination, which I will count as true. He won't get my vote today for sure, and I'll be reassessing my suspicion tomorrow.

Formendacil, I just don't know. Yet Wilwarin has been left alone, and I feel that she has been suspicious, so my vote swings that way.

++Wilwarin538

I wish you all the best of luck during the night. Well, except for the wolves, I hope you have the crappiest luck ever.

[Aiwendil]

Well . . . it looks like several people are either not voting or waiting until the very last minute.

I will, as I indicated earlier, vote for:

++Rune.

As I said before, Gurthang's behaviour looks more like that of a Cobbler than that of a lycanthrope to me.

If Rune is innocent, then I think we ought to look more closely at Wilwarin; it still seems likely to me that she was trying to save Spawn.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

++Gurthang

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I cross postet please someone break the tie

[The Saucepan Man]

A few final thoughts.

Originally Posted by Wayne

I dicided i will not vote. It wouldent help anyone at all also I will not be posten again today.

But Wayne, me lad. Not voting's just 'bout the most unhelpful thing you can do. Yer choice not to do so today counts against you, to my mind. Counts against you it does, and no mistakin'.

Originally Posted by Rune

Gurthang is clearly the one witch confuses me the most. I would like to have him stay a while, but I might have to vote for him to save my self.

And what if 'e's gifted and yer just an ordinary innocent? Not sayin 'e is like, but to try an' save yerself an' condemn 'im when there's a chance 'e may be seems mighty Wolfish to this poor befuddled old harbourmaster.

Originally Posted by Kath

The thing is that I have an automatic suspicion of anyone who makes a great deal of noise in the village, even though it is often the quiet ones that are the wolves (e.g. spawn).

Well I can't deny that I bin doin' a lot of talkin'. It's me way, d'you see? I can't 'elp misself. But I would point out that I'm not the only noisy one 'round 'ere. Why d'ye single me out for attention?

Besides, noisiness don't necessarily equate to Wolfishness, to my mind leastways.

[Aiwendil]

Alas! It looks like a cross-post may lead to a double lynch - unless someone comes along to prevent it.

[mormegil]

I'm not sure I should break the tie, because either way I vote will seem wolfish to some and innocent to others. It depends on the outcome and as far as I'm concerned they could both be guilty but it could be that Rune is a wolf and Gurthang is the cobbler.

I will try and wait for Holby and Wilwa.

[wilwarin538]

Sorry about my absence. Sorry about this post's shortnest. I'm gonna vote now:

++Gurthang

I know this post will bring me even more suspicion. I just hope you guys don't lynch me because I'll probably have a much longer post next Day.

Sorry bout my absence. Bye.

[Aiwendil]

Now that I think about it for a moment, a double lynch might not be the worst thing, if it's those two.

Well, it's out of my hands now . . .

[mormegil]

++Rune

I could be making a mistake but I think one of them is guilty but not sure which.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Now that I think about it for a moment, a double lynch might not be the worst thing, if it's those two.

I agree. Good call, Morm.

[Alcarillo]

Two werewolves remained in the village, hiding as innocent villagers after the death of their comrade. They had survived one lynching, but now would they be able to escape a double lynching? As the votes were tallied down by the docks, they breathed a sigh of relief after they escaped the noose (or the stake). Rune and Gurthang would die instead. After much debate, the method of lynching was finally decided upon: burning at the stake, in retaliation for what had happened to Jack the Seer.

And so, timber and kindling was fetched from the old warehouse by the shore, and the villagers created two great mounds of wood, each one at the end of a pier. The villagers stood with buckets of seawater at the side should anything go wrong. The strongest men in the village had beforehand wrestled and tied up Rune and Gurthang, and now they were carried, thrashing like fish out of water, out to the mounds of wood, and tied to tall poles rising out of the center of each. Blazing torches were prepared, and the Saucepan Man stood with one next to Rune's mound and Aiwendil by Gurthang's.

"Any last words, wolf?" The villagers sneered at their victims.

"Last words are for fools who haven't said enough," Rune said valiantly, holding his head proudly like a martyr, "But I would like to say this to the Trade and Commerce Guild of Arminalêth: You made a big mistake, a huge mistake, in banning me from the conference! I'll show you all! I show you, you little –"

But at this point he was interrupted by the inferno his mound of wood had become. The Saucepan Man had tossed his torch into the wood somewhere around the first "mistake", because everybody was now watching Gurthang rowing away in a small rowboat.

"Ha! I'm escaping! Ha! Hahahahahahahaha!" He paddled his oars as fast as he could. The villagers leapt into the other rowboats at the docks, dropping their pails of water and torches where they stood. They all pushed off from the shore, a tiny armada furiously chasing Gurthang to the mouth of the harbor. The rowboat containing Kath, Holby, Formendacil, and Lhuna reached him first, whacking the sides of his boat with their oars, trying to tip him into the harbor. Then Aiwendil, Fordim, Wilwa, and Morm arrived in another rowboat. They were close enough to whack Gurthang over the head, which they did mercilessly. Then, when Gurthang's boat began to sink, Boro, the Saucepan Man, and Wayne arrived. They dragged Gurthang out of his sinking boat, and Wayne confirmed that the escapee was dead. Unfortunately, he remained an ordinary villager. A glance towards Rune's roasted corpse on the shore showed that the villagers now had the blood of two innocents on their hands.

* * * * *

Dead
Alcarillo – mod - impaled upon his own sword – NIGHT 1
dancing spawn of ungoliant – werewolf – pushed off the cliffs and into the sea – DAY 1
Jack – seer – toasted and roasted in forge – NIGHT 2
Rune son of Bjarne – ordinary – burnt at the stake – DAY 2
Gurthang – ordinary – slain in naval engagement – DAY 2

Living
Aiwendil – retired tutor
Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – lithesome and non-unionized pearl diver
Formendacil – disgruntled office clerk
Holbytlass – butcher
Kath – bum
Lhunardawen – polite little shepherd girl
Mormegil - repairman specializing in ships and docks
The Saucepan Man - harbormaster
WaynetheGoblin – doctor
Wilwarin538 – fiddler

It is now NIGHT 3! Villagers, go to sleep; wolves, hunter, and ranger PM me with your choices.

[Alcarillo]

The stars appeared in the night sky, and Wilwa stayed up long into the night tuning her fiddle, and occasionally playing a quiet tune. She sat by the fireplace, where a fire was lit to warm her house. She knew she should sleep, but who could while werewolves prowled the village? She played a cheerful tune to try to create a more friendly mood for that evening, but the sheer darkness and silence of the night outside made her fiddle's voice seem small indeed. Not even the crickets were chirping. True, it was winter, but the winter by the sea was usually warm enough to have some crickets. Wilwa decided that she should at least try to sleep, whether or not it would help. After all, she couldn't fear werewolves while dreaming, could she? She lay her fiddle on the mantelpiece, and doused the flames with a bucket of water, reminding her of Rune's death just hours before. She shuddered for a moment at the thought that the werewolves were one villager closer to slaughtering the village.

And as she turned towards the doorway, where the door had swung open into the darkness of a hallway, one lonesome creak creaked. It was so sudden and seemed so loud that Wilwa jumped two inches into the air, only to realize it was her own foot stepping upon a loose floorboard. Foolish me, she thought, scared by my own house. She crept out into the hallway, towards a set of stairs, illuminated by moonlight through a nearby window. There was another creak as she walked. Just me again, she thought. But this time she was wrong.

* * * * *

The villagers awoke to a beautiful sunrise. After a headcount, they groaned to learn that Wilwa was dead. They all gathered at her house and noticed that Wilwa's garden had been trampled. The door was unlocked, too. They entered, and to their horror found that Wilwa had been tied to the floor with her fiddle-strings, like the mariner Lemûw-el Gûllivah in his voyages. The bruises around her neck showed that she had been suffocated, choked by a string that lay on the floor next to her. Such a horrific death! And her fiddle suffered equally: the villagers found the parlor strewn with bits of wood, smashed to bits and ripped to pieces. Both a fine musician and a fine musical instrument were lost that night to a terrible fate. The villagers tried gluing the fiddle back together, but it was no use, and they returned back to the docks to discuss what had happened and to lynch another villager.

* * * * *

Dead
Alcarillo – mod - impaled upon his own sword – NIGHT 1
dancing spawn of ungoliant – werewolf – pushed off the cliffs and into the sea – DAY 1
Jack – seer – toasted and roasted in forge – NIGHT 2
Rune son of Bjarne – ordinary – burnt at the stake – DAY 2
Gurthang – ordinary – slain in naval engagement – DAY 2
Wilwarin538 – ordinary – killed with fiddle-strings – NIGHT 3

Living
Aiwendil – retired tutor
Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – lithesome and non-unionized pearl diver
Formendacil – disgruntled office clerk
Holbytlass – butcher
Kath – bum
Lhunardawen – polite little shepherd girl
Mormegil - repairman specializing in ships and docks
The Saucepan Man - harbormaster
WaynetheGoblin – doctor

It is now DAY 3! Werewolves stop PMing, villagers talk and lynch one of your own.

[mormegil]

So they got Wilwa? Well I have to admit if somebody had to go I'm glad, in a way, that it was Wilwa. Hear me out now. I think very highly of our young fiddler but she was high on my list of suspects and she's not gifted so now I have one less person to worry about.

I feel horrible about the double lynching yesterday and usually I'm not inclined for such things but I thought that at least one was a wolf and the other possibly the cobbler. I feel horrible.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well that don't make no sense to me, that it don't.

Why poor Mistress Wilwa? She was suspected by many in this 'ere village as a Wolf. Only thing as makes any sense to me is the Wolves thought she was our Elf-Friend. I shall 'ave to review what she said to see if she left any clues. Though she spoke little enough yesterday.

One other idea springs to me poor befuddled mind, though. 'Er death may be an attempt to frame those who spoke out against 'er yesterday.

I must say, though, I's feelin' pretty clueless at this 'ere moment in time. Two of me main suspects 'ave turned out innocent and it's looking more n' more likely that there may be at least one Wolf among those that I previously 'ad down as likely innocents.

Looks like this is goin' to need a serious smokin' and thinkin' session. In the meantime, 'ere's yesterday's voting record, for what it may be worth:

1. Lhunadarwen votes for Kath (Kath - 1)
2. SpM votes for Rune (Kath - 1; Rune - 1)
3. Fordim votes for Gurthang (Kath - 1; Rune - 1; Gurthang - 1)
4. Boromir88 votes for Rune (Kath - 1; Rune - 2; Gurthang - 1)
5. Kath votes for Wayne (Kath - 1; Rune - 2; Gurthang - 1; Wayne - 1)
6. Formendacil votes for Gurthang (Kath - 1; Rune - 2; Gurthang - 2; Wayne - 1)
7. Gurthang votes for Wilwarin (Kath - 1; Rune - 2; Gurthang - 2; Wayne - 1; Wilwarin - 1)
8. Aiwendil votes for Rune (Kath - 1; Rune - 3; Gurthang - 2; Wayne - 1; Wilwarin - 1)
9. Rune votes for Gurthang (Kath - 1; Rune - 3; Gurthang - 3; Wayne - 1; Wilwarin - 1)
10. Wilwarin votes for Gurthang (Kath - 1; Rune - 3; Gurthang - 4; Wayne - 1; Wilwarin - 1)
11. Mormegil votes for Rune (Kath - 1; Rune - 4; Gurthang - 4; Wayne - 1; Wilwarin - 1)

Did not vote:
Wayne
Holby

[Aiwendil]

Things have gone ill indeed! I must confess that when Rune and Gurthang both turned out to be innocent, I bitterly rued the fact that I had not gone after Wilwarin with greater force that day. Now I learn that she too was innocent. I erred in all my suspicions, it seems. I am beginning to think that accusing Spawn the first day was the single worth-while deed I shall be able to achieve.

It was a very odd choice for the wolves to kill our fiddler. She was under fairly heavy suspicion and I don't doubt that, were she alive, not a few would be calling for her death. I cannot begin to fathom why the wolves would go after her.

I need to rethink everything. I'll be back with more soon.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

With all due respect to our esteemed retired tutor and harbourmaster, but a double-lynching is never anything but a terrible idea – especially so early on – as all it does is double the chances of lynching innocents, which…guess what?...we did. Sure Rune and Gurthang were not being terribly helpful and, yes, I voted for Gurthang whom I thought was a wolf, and also yes I thought that Rune had a good chance of being a wolf too…but that’s no reason go a-killing them both at once! Now we knows that neither of them is a wolf, but we’ve gone and handed the wolves a whopping great helping hand in their cause.

After yesterDAY’s antics there’s a couple of folk hereabout as I’d like to keep my eye on. First and foremost among these is master Formendacil. Interestingly, he himself explains why I’d like to keep my eye on him. When he went and voted for Gurthang he said:

And yes, I do realise that between his vote on Day 1 and his accusation against me today this may look a little like revenge.

Not revenge so much as payback, m’lad. So far, Formy’s been getting something of a free pass and the only one as has been pointing a finger at him is now lynched…and a proven innocent, I might add removing any tint of wolfishness from his accusations.

The other is Lhuna. She’s been able to keep a pretty low profile so far, for all that she’s been about and appearing to be helpful, without ever really lending a hand. Her vote for Wayne was a nice safe one in that it wouldn’t raise any eyebrows. Then she votes for Kath – pretty much the same as with Wayne. A nice vote to make for a wolf: you’re seen to be out there helping things along, but you’re voting for ‘easy’ targets, and what’s more there’s little chance they’ll be killed so there’s going to be no risk of people coming round after saying, “she voted for an innocent!”

And then there’s this:

It's a pity our Ranger had not seen this coming; he/she could have protected him. But his hints were a bit too subtle. I myself had no idea he was the Seer either; I just think some of his words were a bit weird. Thanks Mister mormegil for pointing them out and how they hint his Seership. Funnily, no offense sir but that makes me suspect you just a teeny weeny bit because you could have seen that if you and your fellow wolf (if any) were deciding who to kill last night, and just presented it to us toDay in the guise of helpfulness. But don't worry, it's just a teeny weeny bit, it's nothing to worry about.

Another nice move, if you’re a wolf: casting suspicion on another person without making outright accusations, and using that to cover her real message: “I didn’t know as Jack was the Seer – no sir, I didn’t! I sure can’t be a wolf! No way!”

But, sadly, I won’t be able to spend any time this DAY really watching these folk or others to try and figure things out. Me aunty over in the next village is not well and I have to go to her for a bit. I’ll be a-coming back, though, as I ain’t afeard of no wolves! But as I don’t want to go without having made my mark I’m a-going to cast my vote here and now for

++WAYNETHEGOBLIN

simply because there’s only two ways of seeing him: as a wolf who’s hiding by staying silent, or as an innocent who’s not helping us one little bit by staying silent. Either way, he’s not a great loss to the village if we string up him by the neck! I wish I could stay around and try to figure things out a bit clearer, and I don’t doubt that my vote would be different if I could, but me aunty needs me…

[Aiwendil]

Mathematical Methods of Wolf Detection

Okay, being a fan (as I said earlier) of quantitative methods, I figured I'd attempt a numerical analysis of people's voting records. I know this may sound like a dubious proposition, and I certainly don't claim that it is infallible. But it can't hurt to try.

The idea is that you gain suspicion points for having voted for a known innocent and lose them for having voted for a known wolf. Now, it seems to me that voting for a wolf is a stronger sign of innocence than voting for an innocent is of guilt. After all, the innocents outnumber the wolves - so a random vote is more likely to be for an innocent than for a wolf. One could try to calculate a ratio of guilt indicators vs. innocence indicators by considering the ratio of wolves to innocents, but that would be tricky and probably ultimately futile. So I'll estimate: I'll assign one point for voting for a known innocent and subtract two for voting for a known wolf. And I'll start with a base score of 5, so that some of you more rustic folk don't have to deal with negative numbers. I'm going to include those that have been slain, as their scores may be some indicator of how accurate this method is. Using this simple model, the results are:

Aiwendil: 4
Boromir: 4
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant: 5
Fordim Hedgethistle: 4
Formendacil: 4
Gurthang: 6
Holbytlass: 6
Jack: 5
Kath: 5
Lhunardawen: 5
Mormegil: 7
Rune: 6
The Saucepan Man: 6
WaynetheGoblin: 5
Wilwarin: 6

Okay, maybe that doesn't tell us all that much. It is worth noting, though, that, going by this system, Mormegil stands out as somewhat suspicious.

Of course, the best way to refine this system is to use it over a greater number of votes - we still only two to work with. But we might try to refine it in other ways. For example:

1. A wolf is more likely to have voted for a known wolf at a time when it did not seem likely that known wolf would be lynched. So for such votes, let's only subtract 1 instead of 2.

2. A known innocent is more likely to receive the vote of another innocent if that known innocent has exhibited suspicious behaviour. Here, I am primarily thinking of Gurthang, who (I think) confused us all. So add only half a point for voting for Gurthang.

3. A wolf is unlikely to voice seriou suspicion of an innocent who is widely regarded as innocent. So subtract half a point from anyone who publicly suspected me, Fordim, Boromir, or The Saucepan Man yesterday.

Now we get:

Aiwendil: 3
Boromir: 4
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant: 5
Fordim Hedgethistle: 3
Formendacil: 4.5
Gurthang: 5.5
Holbytlass: 5.5
Jack: 5
Kath: 5
Lhunardawen: 5
Mormegil: 6.5
Rune: 5.5
The Saucepan Man: 6
WaynetheGoblin: 5
Wilwarin: 5.5

This admittedly haphazard method, then, has me looking at Mormegil and The Saucepan Man right now - two people who seem very reasonable and very helpful, but who would make dangerous wolves.

I suspect that my method will come under some criticism and I'm prepared for that. But I'm also interested in any constructive criticism anyone might have - what other variables could be considered?

Thanks to our harbourmaster, by the way, for compiling a list of votes each day.

[Aiwendil]

Cross-post with Fordim. Actually, double lynching could be a good idea, if one is reasonably certain that one of the two is a wolf or at least the cobbler. I'm afraid to say that I was fairly certain - and completely wrong.