Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Quite frankly, I don't see the point of voting for someone unlikely to be lynched in any case, such as Boromir or SPM.

My dear man there are only not likely to be lynched only if others don't vote for them. Those who vote, especially first, should vote who they think is guilty. While I think you are innocent I don't want to sacrifice another innocent to save another.

[Aiwendil]

Okay, I can accept that, to a degree. I wouldn't have thought there was much chance of SPM being lynched today, but then along comes Boromir with his vote.

Meseems everyone is acting (and voting) strangely.

I will continue to watch - I will vote for our harbourmaster if it proves necessary to save myself. I'd rather lynch Wayne, to be honest.

[The Saucepan Man]

My my, how things 'ave changed while I've been away. I ain't surprised at the votes for me, but I am surprised that Aiwendil is tied wi' me

Although I think we should be lookin' at Lhuna or Kath, I am not averse to votin' for mormegil or Wayne to save misself an' Aiwendil.

Barrin' that, you are best of lynchin' me as while I'm innocent, I ain't gifted. Don't know 'bout Aiwendil, but I'm pretty sure 'e ain't no Wolf.

[Aiwendil]

Saucepan Man: I suspect that you are innocent. I don't want to get lynched, and I don't want you to be lynched either. If you vote for Mormegil or for Wayne, I'll follow.

And if you turn out to be a wolf, I'll be the one kicking myself.

[The Saucepan Man]

Actually, lookin' over Boro's comments, I think that I'd be more prepared to vote for 'im than mormegil. Mormegil 'as bin loud in his accusations of me. If I die and am proven innocent, 'e's in trouble. Whereas Boro 'as been more subtle in what 'e's said about me today. I believe that 'twas 'im who first voiced suspicion of me today. Then 'e takes a back seat while mormegil follows 'is lead. An' then 'e comes in with a vote for me at the end of the day.

I think mormegil is just misguided, whereas Boromir88 is cunning - just like a Wolf.

[Aiwendil]

I'm hesitant to go for Boromir largely due to his vote for Spawn on DAY 1 - at a moment when he could have gone for Formendacil instead. Mormegil on the other hand has made no particularly innocent-looking moves.

[Boromir88]

'Eres my views on evryone, so yall can see my reasonin for votin' fur Panman.

Aiwendil
Fordim
Formendacil
Kath
mormegil
Lhuna
Holby
Wayne
Panman

I fell the same wi' Aiwendil and Fordim as I 'ave fur the las' couple days. They still seem innocen' enuff to me, an' I got no ressin to surspect them yet.

If Formendacil is a wulf I feel 'e 'as played a wonderful game as I 'ave been unable to surspect 'im so far. 'Is vote fur me seems like sumone who is baffeld by who to choose, so if 'es a wulf 'es playin' great.

Kath and Lhuna are like sistas, they are more of the silent type and one may be a wulf, or neider.

mormegil I view a lot like Formendacil, only more talkative. 'E jus' keeps commin' off as innocen' despite wut I think 'bout Lhuna's post. If 'es a wulf 'e sure knows 'ow to talk 'is way out well.

Wayne, findin' Jacks pos' I now fell Jack dreamed of Wayne. But, of course I could be wron' and am open to criticism. I just dun think it's a sure thing Jack dreamed of Panman, cus Jacks basis fur not lynchin' Panman wus cus 'e was smart an' put 'is name in with a few others.

Right now seein' as Holby 'as fur ressin I cant unnerstan' wants to go after Aiwendil. Though I guess since Aiwendil 'as been pretty much viewed as innocen' its only right. I do thin' 'owever that if Panman's a wulf, Holby is, cus they 'ave been rather supportive of eachother.

[The Saucepan Man]

Y' know, it occurs to me that today is a crucial day. If we bag a Wolf, then the past three days' voting record is gonna be very informative. But, if an innocent is lynched, then those who voted for 'im are gonna be persecuted, which will most likely end in the deaths of more innocents.

Which is worryin' me 'cos I really 'ave no firm idea as to who's guilty an' who's not. My voting preference at the moment is:

1. Boromir88
2. Wayne
3. Mormegil

I rather think Wayne's the Cobbler. I suspect the other two of Wolvery, but I can't be sure. An' if I get it wrong, I'm most likely gonna be hounded all tomorrow (as I will most surely live out the night in those circumstances).

Oh botheration! What a conundrum!

[Boromir88]

cross-postin' 'ere. wi' Panman and Aiwendil...

I think mormegil is just misguided, whereas Boromir88 is cunning - just like a Wolf.

Its yur own vote, do wi' it as yu please. I can tell yu, if I'm lynched today, the village will only turn on yu the next day, cus the result will not be one yur pleased with.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I can tell yu, if I'm lynched today, the village will only turn on yu the next day, cus the result will not be one yur pleased with.

Quite possibly, which would do no one any good, as I'm innocent. Same thing would 'appen to you and/or morm if I'm lynched.

In which case, I'm gonna play it safe, an' vote for:

++WAYNETHEGOBLIN

But, unnerstand, I've been put in this position 'cos of the way the votin's gone an' I'd rather see Wayne gone than Aiwendil or misself.

[Aiwendil]

Verily 'tis a conundrum!

For reasons I've mentioned, I think Mormegil more likely to be a wolf than Boromir. But I'm not at all confident in that assessment.

I agree that Wayne looks like the Cobbler, particularly considering his vote for me. So I suggest we remove him from consideration (what with time pressing and so forth).

Why do you think Mormegil innocent? And if Boromir is a wolf, why did he vote for Spawn when he could have saved her?

[Aiwendil]

Cross-post. Well, there goes my idea.

++WaynetheGoblin

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Why do you think Mormegil innocent? And if Boromir is a wolf, why did he vote for Spawn when he could have saved her?

I don't know if mormegil is innocent or guilty. I suspect 'im for all the reasons as I've given today. But I've come round to suspectin' Boromir88 more.

I just don't like the way Boromir88's been towards me today, an' particularly 'is most recent comments. Problem is, if 'e's a Wolf, 'e's puttin' 'imslef in a difficult position if I'm lyched and proven innocent. Which is why I hesitate in votin' for 'im.

As for 'is Spawn vote, I still think it quite possible that it was a bold Wolfish strategy to sacrifice one of their nummer (one who was not able to participate much, as mormegil pointed out) in order to gain some credibility with the village.

But you will see by me vote that I thought as Wayne was the best compromise. It give us time to ponder all these matters over tomorrow with more time on our side, an' before the votes force us into doin' things we wouldn't necessarily do.

But I am worried about yer safety tonight, Aiwendil, in spite of the votes you received today. It's up to the Ranger who he protects, but my advice to 'im or 'er would be to protect you.

Mind you, if you turns out to be a Wolf, I'm a gonna be as mad as Mr McMad of Madville, Madland.

I don't think as Kath's voted 'as she?

[Alcarillo]

The villagers argued all day, attacking each other's theories while defending their own. The votes ultimately pointed to WaynetheGoblin, who wasn't known for his helpfulness. He tried to escape the crowd of villagers, violently screaming, but the strongest wrestled him to the ground and tied him up.

The pyre intended for Gurthang still sat at the end of one of the piers. The villagers decided not to waste a pile of perfectly good wood, and so thought it would be the perfect way to get rid of a pesky werewolf. Wayne, however, thought differently. He had read about burns and their treatment in his medical tomes, and shuddered at what he faced.

And so the villagers raised his bound body into the air, along with pitchforks and torches, and Wayne continued to scream. They marched down the pier chanting "Kill the werewolf! Or King's man! Whichever one he be!", placed him on a pole immerging from the pyre, and tied him fast to it, and they also gagged him so his screams wouldn't bother anybody. And then the villagers threw all of their torches into the wood. They all watched the flames crawl up Wayne's body, and soon he was a roaring fire. After some minutes roasting marshmallows for such an occasion, they doused the flames to see their dead werewolf. But their spirits fell as soon as the smoking embers died out: Wayne was no werewolf. He was just an ordinary villager, caught in a village controlled by fear and paranoia.

* * * * *

Dead
Alcarillo – mod - impaled upon his own sword – NIGHT 1
dancing spawn of ungoliant – werewolf – pushed off the cliffs and into the sea – DAY 1
Jack – seer – toasted and roasted in forge – NIGHT 2
Rune son of Bjarne – ordinary – burnt at the stake – DAY 2
Gurthang – ordinary – slain in naval engagement – DAY 2
Wilwarin538 – ordinary – killed with fiddle-strings – NIGHT 3
WaynetheGoblin – ordinary – burnt at Gurthang's stake – DAY 3

Living
Aiwendil – retired tutor
Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – lithesome and non-unionized pearl diver
Formendacil – disgruntled office clerk
Holbytlass – butcher
Kath – bum
Lhunardawen – polite little shepherd girl
Mormegil - repairman specializing in ships and docks
The Saucepan Man - harbormaster

It is now NIGHT 4! Villagers, go to sleep; werewolves, ranger, hunter PM me.

[Alcarillo]

The Saucepan Man slept in the largest house in town: A two-story townhouse right by the docks. It was filled with fine furniture and expensive tableware. A fancy portrait of his grandparents (Dish and Spoon) hung above the fireplace. An expensive rug adorned each bedroom, and exotic tribal masks from Middle-Earth adorned the walls. His voyages as a mariner had taken him around the worlds and from each land he visited he had picked up a new piece of furniture. He was surrounded by trinkets from all four corners of the earth.

But for all this luxury he did not sleep well this night. He tossed and turned in his creamy-colored linen sheets, turning each single thought over and over in his mind. Who were the werewolves? How could he keep his reputation in such a paranoid village? Could he live up to the expectations of Grampa Dish and Gramma Spoon?

I need a glass o' water, he thought and climbed out of bed. He walked down his hallway and a set of stairs, and into his kitchen. He held a candle in one hand, but its light was dim and weak. He moved his hands about, looking for the candelabra he usually set atop the dining table. He felt the table, but where was the candelabra? Darn, I swear I 'aven't lost it . . . he thought. Then a breeze wafted through and his candle blew out. Now I suppose I 've left the window open! Bah! All I want is some water. 'Ow can I get a drink when I can't even see?! the Saucepan Man, already agitated by the state of his village, cursed a bit at the world's unwillingness to let him find a glass of water. He stumbled about in the darkness for a while, grasping the walls and moving along towards the windows. Suddenly, he felt like somebody was watching him. There he was, moving blindly along the wall, when there could be a werewolf a foot away! He froze, and his hand reached for a heavy picture hanging on the wall, but it was too late . . .

* * * * *

The sun rose in the East, and the sky grew bright and warm. The villagers rose from bed already with the knowledge that another death had occurred. Who was it this time? A quick count showed that the Saucepan Man had vanished during the night. The villagers found the windows of his home open, and after Morm climbed through and unlocked the front door, the rest of the villagers entered. Morm seemed dumbstruck by the horror of what had happened to the harbourmaster, and so he could only lead them to the scene of the crime: the kitchen.

It was a horrible sight: the walls were painted red with blood, the cabinets were smashed to pieces (and the boards and nails apparently used as weapons), and the Saucepan Man's limbs lay scattered all over the floor. His head sat in the very center. His bushy white beard was bloodstained and tangled, and his old pipe sat snapped in two close by. The worst part was the sarcastic note tucked into the Saucepan Man's mouth:

Too bad you killed your doctor.
- The Werewolves

* * * * *

Dead
Alcarillo – mod - impaled upon his own sword – NIGHT 1
dancing spawn of ungoliant – werewolf – pushed off the cliffs and into the sea – DAY 1
Jack – seer – toasted and roasted in forge – NIGHT 2
Rune son of Bjarne – ordinary – burnt at the stake – DAY 2
Gurthang – ordinary – slain in naval engagement – DAY 2
Wilwarin538 – ordinary – killed with fiddle-strings – NIGHT 3
WaynetheGoblin – ordinary – burnt at Gurthang's stake – DAY 3
The Saucepan Man – ordinary – dismembered – NIGHT 4

Living
Aiwendil – retired tutor
Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – lithesome and non-unionized pearl diver
Formendacil – disgruntled office clerk
Holbytlass – butcher
Kath – bum
Lhunardawen – polite little shepherd girl
Mormegil - repairman specializing in ships and docks

DAY 4 has begun. Villagers, start talking; hunter, PM me; werewolves, stop PMing.

[Aiwendil]

Now we are in a grim situation indeed. Yesterday, things rather went astray. In effect, the votes for me and for the late Saucepan Man forced us to choose from among a small selection of people (Mormegil, Wayne, and Boromir) and to ignore the two that both of us thought should be under the closest scrutiny - Kath and Lhunardawen.

Fellow innocents - we must be more careful today, if there is to be any hope of saving our village.

I remain most strongly suspicious of Kath, Lhunardawen, and Mormegil, for reasons I have already discussed.

There are a few questions in my mind that I can't begin to answer, but that I think are worth considering:

1. Why did they kill The Saucepan Man just when he began to receive some votes? Was it a clumsy attempt to frame Boromir and Mormegil?

2. Kath did not vote yesterday. Why?

3. Was there a Wolvish plot to force us to ignore Kath and Lhunardawen yesterday?

[mormegil]

I must admit that I have never been so confused in all of my days. I was nearly convinced of SpM's guilt.

We now only have 8 villagers left. 2 wolves and possibly a cobbler (that is unless he/she is dead and we didn't find out). Now it is important that today we bag a wolf before our numbers become too disproportionate. To do this I want people's opinion on the hunter and possibly the ranger coming forward. It would give us at least one and possibly two known innocents. It would narrow our number of suspects down to 5 (innocents knowing they are innocent) That gives us a 40% random chance of bagging a wolf. Those odds could be increased or decreased depending upon the wolves behavior today and past days.

Ideas or suggestions?

[Holbytlass]

Wayne wasn't bluffing. In his first post, he bolded an r-o-d=ord. SpM, that is confusing, poor guy.

Morm, you may be on to something, but I suggest at least for toDAY, only the hunter reveal themselves. See the hunter is only a threat to the wolves when killed, when alive, (s)he is just another regular person. If the hunter reveals themself then the wolves are in a pickle wether to leave a known innocent alive or kill them and risk one being killed themselves. I'm not so sure if the ranger should reveal yet. I see the point of narrowing down the suspect list but then that gives the wolves 2 important kill choices. O'course, it's totally up to them.

[Holbytlass]

Since Saucie's not here to do it ...

1. Fordim votes for Wayne (wayne-1)
2. Lhuna votes for Morm (Wayne-1, Morm-1)
3. Holby votes for Aiwen (Wayne-1, Morm-1, Aiwen-1)
4. Wayne votes for Aiwen (Wayne-1, Morm-1, Aiwen-2)
5. Formen votes for Boro (Wayne-1, Morm-1, Aiwen-2, Boro-1)
6. Morm votes for SpM (Wayne-1, Morm-1, Aiwen-2, Boro-1, SpM-1)
7. Boro votes for Spm (Wayne-1, Morm-1, Aiwen-2, Boro-1, SpM-2)
8. SpM votes for Wayne(Wayne-2, Morm-1, Aiwen-2, Boro-1, Spm-2)
9. Aiwen votes for Wayne (Wayne-3, Morm-1, Aiwen-2, Boro-1, SpM-2)

no vote Kath

EDIT: On Kath, I just don't see a wolf being that quiet. Unless her bumming ways has taken her elswhere.

[Boromir88]

Was it a clumsy attempt to frame Boromir and Mormegil?~Aiwendil

You know aftuh the votin' yesturday I wus thinkin' 'bout 'ow the las' couple minuts went between myself and Panman. I wus thinkin' yuh know I'm innocent, I'm gonna take Panman fur 'is word an' say 'e wus innocen'. Cus, as I wus thinkin' las' night, wuldnt it be rathuh funny if Panman an' morm were innocen' and the two wulves were jus' sittin' back laughin' at us cus we wuh goin' 'round in circles killin' eachothuh off?

So 'eres my lis' of most innocen' to leas' innocen'.

Aiwendil
Formendacil
Fordim
Mormegil
Lhuna
Holby
Kath

I thin' atleast one of these three is a wulf, Kath, Holby, Lhuna. Mos' likely Kath, I dun unnerstan' why she dun vote. Holby and Lhuna may very well be wulves too, but I still shuld think that 'least one wulf is stirrin' 'is 'ands in the pot and gettin' us to go in circles. Which, mormegil and Fordim wuld both fit under this bill.

We still also 'ave the cobbler, and since I cant get a reasonnin' on Formendacil, 'e may be the Cobbler. Or if Aiwendil is the cobbler, which if 'e is 'es been doin' a pretty bad job of it. I agree with Panman, if your a wulf Aiwendil, I wont say I'll be mad, but I will say yu desurve to win.

[Boromir88]

Cross-postin' with bunch of peeple...

EDIT: On Kath, I just don't see a wolf being that quiet. Unless her bumming ways has taken her elswhere~Holby

Or if its been like the last couple days, and jus' 'aving me, Panman, and morm go at it, goin' in circles surspectin' one anuthuh, why would a wulf need a reason to talk?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I thin' atleast one of these three is a wulf, Kath, Holby, Lhuna.

I would tend to think that you are correct in this, but which I don't know. I want to think Holby is the most innocent looking but yet I'm just not sure of much anything currently.

[Boromir88]

Wi' Holbys recent pos' I am inclined now to believe shes innocen'. Atleast comments like theese make 'er look innocen' to me:

I'm not so sure if the ranger should reveal yet. I see the point of narrowing down the suspect list but then that gives the wolves 2 important kill choices. O'course, it's totally up to them.

And one in which I agree wi'. But, now we 'ave the problem (if the 'unter an'/or Ranger decide to step out) a wulf that is lyin' out of 'is/'er toofth to save 'is/'er own skin.

I will be straigh', as Ive sed it all long, I'm neider 'unter nor Ranger, jus' a simple ord wi' 'is own gut fellins to go off of. But, I do agree with Holby. Furst it shuld be up to the gifted whether to revel or not, and I wuld advise only the 'unter revel 'im/'erself

[Alcarillo]

Originally Posted by Morm

We now only have 8 villagers left. 2 wolves and possibly a cobbler (that is unless he/she is dead and we didn't find out).

I will tell you when the cobbler is dead. So the cobbler is still alive right now.

[Aiwendil]

Holbytlass wrote:

Wayne wasn't bluffing. In his first post, he bolded an r-o-d=ord. SpM, that is confusing, poor guy.

You know, I spent a good long time staring at those bolded letters on DAY 1. As I couldn't see how they could mean "Seer" or "Hunter" or "Ranger", I forgot about them. It didn't occur to me that someone would hint at being an ordinary villager. Now I'm kicking myself.

Mormegil wrote:

To do this I want people's opinion on the hunter and possibly the ranger coming forward.

Here are my thoughts on this. I don't think that the Hunter or the Ranger should come forward just yet. Rather, I suggest that toDAY, no one votes rashly. Before we vote, each person should put forward the name of the person he or she intends to vote for. That way, we can get an idea of who is likely to be lynched. If that person is the Hunter or the Ranger, then he or she should come forward and prevent us from lynching a Gifted.

A problem either way - Morm's or mine - is that with a Cobbler and two Wolves still at large, we may get multiple claims.

Boromir wrote:

Or if Aiwendil is the cobbler, which if 'e is 'es been doin' a pretty bad job of it.

As I'm innocent, I'll take that as a compliment!

[Boromir88]

You know, I spent a good long time staring at those bolded letters on DAY 1. As I couldn't see how they could mean "Seer" or "Hunter" or "Ranger", I forgot about them. It didn't occur to me that someone would hint at being an ordinary villager. Now I'm kicking myself.

I thought Wayne wus the Seer and 'e wus tellin' us sumthin'. But, I culdn't figger out who he was spekkin' 'bout. I saw Rod, and I'm like...um initions of Rune Son of Bjarne..cant be. 'Ow 'bout some wierd thin' of Formendacil (which 'as r-o-d). I spent many a time tryin' to figger it out, then I gave up once I foun' out Jack was the Seer.

[mormegil]

It would be a rather silly wolf that came out and refuted a hunters claim, though the cobbler may do such a thing, either way it would be a overall good thing for us because we would identify at least one enemy.

[Holbytlass]

Kath: She has been around a little (I thought it was her, not Wayne, who missed the vote the same DAY I did), her 2 votes have been have been for 2 different people and she's neither first ones or last ones. All very 'safe' votes.

Aiwendil: Likes to wait and see then votes, 1st vote- breaks tie and gets wolf lynched. Could be lucky vote or gave up on partner. 2nd vote-breaks tie again, tough choice for an innocent, or for a wolf don't care cause both were innocent. 3rd vote-breaks 3 way tie to safe self from two now known innocents-ordo or wolf would save themself.

Fordim: 1st vote-2nd one to vote wolf. 2nd vote-first to vote Gurthang. 3rd vote-first to vote Wayne. Is an early voter, comes off looking like a nonbandwaggoner.

Lhuna: 1st vote- 1st for Wayne. 2nd vote-1st for Kath. 3rd vote-1st forMorm. Only one a proven innocent, spreads votes around, safe votes.

Formen: 1st vote: first for wolf. 2nd vote:2nd for Gurthang 3rd vote:first for Boromir. Early vote for a wolf-either lucky shot or goes for it cause of the sacrificial wolf theory. Early vote for a now known innocent. Middle vote for a 'safe' choice.

Morm: 1st vote-1st for Gurthang, 2nd vote-last for Rune-ties and lynches Rune and Gurthang. Either a courageous innocent trying to take down 2 high suspects, or bluffing wolf getting rid of 2 innocents. 3rd vote-1st to vote SpM

Boromir: 1st vote-3rd for wolf, making tie with Formen. 2nd vote-2nd vote for Rune 3rd vote-2nd for Spm making tie with Aiwen. Could be quickly hopping on to vote off sacrificial partner, likes to make ties, perhaps trying to save fellow wolf Aiwendil.


Suspects:
Aiwendil
Boromir

[Boromir88]

It would be a rather silly wolf that came out and refuted a hunters claim, though the cobbler may do such a thing, either way it would be a overall good thing for us because we would identify at least one enemy

Very true, and even wi' the fallure of the las' two days, the wulves dun got a lot of wiggle room. I can see if thin's were a lot closer and the wulves were close to winnin'. But right now the advantage is 6-2, and they jus' dun cant afford to throw themselfs out and refute the real gifteds claim as that would give 'em away.

As talks proceed. I know Ive been rathuh talkative today, but thats cus I dun wanna see these wulves snatch victry from the jauws of defeet. So, right now:

Aiwendil
Holby
and mormegil, I'm skepticle of puttin' in 'ere, cus I thin' above the other two 'es capable of tryin' to be cunnin' an' wut not, but Ill still put in there are innocen'.

This leafs Fordim, Formendacil, Lhuna, Kath. Fordim I wanna 'ear Fordim talk more. Im growin' more suspishus. I know 'es been busy, an' 'es explained befur 'and, but I wanna 'ere this smart guy talk.

Formendacil I belief is me cobbler suspec'. Leavin' Kath and Lhuna as our wulves. 'Owever, Fordim and mormegil (or even Formendacil) could be pullin' in close be'ind so to say.

I know its rathuh erly, and I no where near to votin'. But this talk 'as cleared a lot of thin's up fur me, and I'm more confident then even castin' my vote fur Spawn (cus that I thin' wus more just luck) that Lhuna or Kath is a wulf.

[Aiwendil]

I know Ive been rathuh talkative today

Being talkative is good, as I see it. The more we talk, the more evidence we have at our disposal. Silence only helps the Wolves.

even wi' the fallure of the las' two days, the wulves dun got a lot of wiggle room. But right now the advantage is 6-2, and they jus' dun cant afford to throw themselfs out and refute the real gifteds claim as that would give 'em away.

Now here I have to disagree. The Wolves are rather close to winning. It's 6-2 but one of those six is the Cobbler. If we (Eru forbid) lynch an innocent toDAY, the Wolves will kill an innocent toNIGHT, and it'll be 3 innocents vs. 2 wolves and a Cobbler.

I expect that no one else cares about my numerical attempt at analyzing voting patterns, but it might illuminate my thought process a little bit. Here are the results I get, starting with a score of 5 for everyone and assigning one point for voting for a known innocent and subtracting two points for voting for a known wolf.

Aiwendil: 5
Boromir88: 5
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant: 5 (6)
Fordim Hedgethistle: 5
Formendacil : 4
Gurthang: 6
Holbytlass: 6 (7)
Jack: 5
Kath: 6
Lhunardawen: 6
Rune Son of Bjarne: 7
Mormegil: 8
The Saucepan Man: 8
WaynetheGoblin: 5 (6)
Wilwarin538: 6

The numbers in parentheses are from my perspective - i.e. counting myself as a known innocent.

Now, it's obvious right away that this is not a reliable guide - two known innocents have rather high scores. But I think there are two things worth noting:

1. Formendacil has voted rather like an innocent - more so than anyone else.

2. Mormegil has voted like a Wolf. Maybe he's innocent - he very well could be. Maybe he's the Cobbler. Whatever the case, he seems, on the whole, to have done more good for the Wolves than for the villagers.

So for now, I'm considering Formendacil rather unlkely to be a wolf, but Mormegil is one of my chief suspects.

However - I also agree Boromir and Mormegil that Lhuna and Kath are good candidates for lynching today. They have both been fairly quiet, much to their advantage. And, as has been observed, they have both made rather "safe" votes.

[mormegil]

1. Formendacil has voted rather like an innocent - more so than anyone else.

Tell me, who has the ability to vote more like an innocent, a wolf or an innocent?

2. Mormegil has voted like a Wolf. Maybe he's innocent - he very well could be. Maybe he's the Cobbler. Whatever the case, he seems, on the whole, to have done more good for the Wolves than for the villagers.

I somewhat resent that as I feel as though I have been attempting to help out greatly and even though my votes and ideas have gone wrong it seems on the whole I'm on par with the village would it not?

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Well I'm back from me aunty's house, but there's another of me cousins as has come down with sommat terrible now so I'll have to run off and see to her -- so like the last DAY, this will more than likely be me only post!

I can't say as I'm all that surprised by what I see was a-going on yesterDAY. I didn't have any great hope that Wayne was a wolf, but I figured better to take out an unhelpful innocent than helpful one. My but these wolves are cagey...

At any rate, going over the posts of the last while I thinks I shall stand by me conclusions on the last DAY that the wolves could be Formendacil and Lhuna for pretty much exactly the same reasons I gave the last time I spoke up. They didn't really change their patter at all the last DAY so far as I could see. Each goes a-voting for someone as probably won't be lynched so they won't have to face the accusations of voting for an innocent. And they vote in the middle of the DAY so not to attract attention...cause that's what wolves do: they hide.

But they're not the ones as I feel the strongest about here. No -- right now, I feel that the most likeliest wolf of all is that 'Aiwendil bloke. Yes he voted for a known wolf on the first day, and at the time that seemed crazed, but look at the free run he's had based on that. There's been some suspicion raised against him but not enough to amount to anything.

And look at how he comes up with his scores for people. When other folk come up with numbers and lists, he can't be quick enough pointing out that they're not useful. Why? I'll tells you, because other people's lists and strategies might not turn out the same results as his and so he makes them go away.

But the clincher is the deaths of poor Wilwa and SaucepanMan. Both of them die when they're beginning to look suspicious which doesn't make a lot of sense to us: why not leave an innocent alive? Why? I'll tell you -- that Aiwendil has a lot of pull hereabouts and there's folk as wil listen to him. Killing Spawn the first day was all part of his wolfish plot to get credibility, and he aims to keep that. As soon as it looks like things are starting to make sense (Wilwa and Saucy are wolves, says folks) they die -- so things aren't clear, and why the wolves did what they did isn't clear, but isn't it nice we have Aiwendil around, that nice bloke who voted for Spawn on the first day so we can trust him... "Tell us what to do Master Aiwendil!"

I kick myself cause I fell for it. That I did. But not no more I won't. No I won't, not by a long chalk.

So that's why I'm a-going to cast my vote now for

++AIWENDIL

And head out of town to take care of that cousin of mine as is not feeling well.

And if Aiwendil leads the charge to get my lynched this day, then...well...I hopes as he'll be lynched next so that my death won't be in vain!

[Aiwendil]

A bit defensive, are we?

Of course, I meant no offense. As I said, it's quite possible that you are an innocent villager and that you have simply been unlucky. As you can see from my analysis, The Saucepan Man was such a villager - innocent but hapless when it came to voting. We have all made mistakes. But that doesn't mean I'm going to stop suspecting you

I think we should all try to remain calm and collected and avoid getting into any heated debates at the moment. The worst thing that could happen toDAY is a spurt of rash voting like what occurred yesterDAY. And I think we should hear everyone's intended votes before actually voting, to give the Ranger or the Hunter the necessary time to come forward if it looks likely that one of them is going to be lynched.

[Boromir88]

I somewhat resent that as I feel as though I have been attempting to help out greatly and even though my votes and ideas have gone wrong it seems on the whole I'm on par with the village would it not?

Quite true sir. If you are simply a villager (or even one of the gifted 'sides the seer) you really 'ave no clue who's a wulf and who isnt. So, a lot of it comes down to luck, or jus' spottin' wulfishness in sumone.

The more I think on it, I now surspect Masta Fordim as our cobbler. Yes, 'is votes been early for unavailability, but its who 'es votin' for thats got me thinkin' 'es the cobbler. Yesturday for Wayne (which is unnerstandable) but today for Aiwendil. Now, Holby 'as been consistant in goin' aftuh Aiwendil, but Fordim comes right out the blue. Particularly these las' couple days it seems as if Fordim (who as cobbler may surspect Kath and/or Lhuna as wolves) 'is votes go on to distrac' us frum them. Masta Fordim our cobbler per'aps?

I dun thin' 'es a wulf, but it seems to me this is an attempt to jump on with Holby's suspicion and yet again get our focus off of the likely wulf(ves) Kath an'/or Lhuna.

Suspects:
Aiwendil
Boromir~Holby

Why wuld wolves choose to stay so close to eachothuh? I 'ave been defendin' Aiwendil, yes. But thats cus I thin' 'es innocen' and I think 'is vote for Spawn shows that. Agin, why would a wulves choose early on to sacrifice one of their own, specially since Spawn could 'ave been easily saved? I dun thin' wulves would sacrifice one of their own unless absolutely necessary, and so early on in the game it wuldnt be necessary. But that's just me own thoughts on it.

Its true I 'ave defended Aiwendil, and Ive made it clear if 'es a wulf, 'e deserves to win for foolin' me. 'Owever, bein' as two wulves left, if Aiwendil and I were both wulves why would I sit right out 'ere and defen' 'im? Knowin' if 'es lynched this whole time Ive been 'ere preachin' 'is innocen'.

See wulves like to stay apart. They like to subtely say a fella wulf is innocen'/guilty. 'Owever they would never be so closely attatched, cus that gives them no room to squeeze out of a jam. No, Im not defendin' Aiwendil cus were bofth wulves, but cus Im an innocen' and I see 'im as the mos' logical and innocen' one 'ere and to lose 'im wuld be only a detrimen' to the village.

[Aiwendil]

Cross-post with Fordim. Well, there goes my idea about waiting on the votes - though of course I understand and sympathize if Fordim doesn't have time to stick around.

Fordim is no dullard, but I fear he has made some errors of reasoning. Either that or he's a Wolf. Or the Cobbler.

Yes he voted for a known wolf on the first day, and at the time that seemed crazed, but look at the free run he's had based on that.

Of course, from the point of view of anyone but myself, this is possible. But I will point out two things. First, I was the first person to raise suspicion against Spawn. Second, I had it within my power until the very end of the DAY to prevent Spawn's lynching by voting for Formendacil. So if you believe it was a Wolvish plot, you are committed to believing that it was an all-out pre-meditated sacrifice. I point this out because, while I can easily imagine a Wolf throwing out another Wolf's name early on, or throwing his or her vote in when a lynching is inevitable, it seems to me less likely (though, I admit, not impossible) that the Wolves would make such a sacrifice, especially on the first DAY.

And look at how he comes up with his scores for people. When other folk come up with numbers and lists, he can't be quick enough pointing out that they're not useful.

When you came up with a numerical system, I pointed out what I perceived to be flaws with it, while also commenting that I thought quantitative methods were a good idea. And when I came up with a numerical system, I repeatedly emphasized that it was flawed in several ways and that any conclusions drawn from it are tenuous at best.

But the clincher is the deaths of poor Wilwa and SaucepanMan. Both of them die when they're beginning to look suspicious which doesn't make a lot of sense to us: why not leave an innocent alive? Why? I'll tell you -- that Aiwendil has a lot of pull hereabouts and there's folk as wil listen to him. Killing Spawn the first day was all part of his wolfish plot to get credibility, and he aims to keep that. As soon as it looks like things are starting to make sense (Wilwa and Saucy are wolves, says folks) they die -- so things aren't clear, and why the wolves did what they did isn't clear, but isn't it nice we have Aiwendil around, that nice bloke who voted for Spawn on the first day so we can trust him... "Tell us what to do Master Aiwendil!"

But my advice has not been heeded! On DAY 2, I was all for lynching Wilwarin (a mistake, I now know). We lynched Rune and Gurthang instead. On DAY 3, I was all for lynching either Lhuna or Kath. We lynched Wayne instead (partly thanks to you, I must point out).

As for the deaths of Wilwarin and The Saucepan Man - I'm afraid I can't see how these implicate me. The Saucepan Man was, after all, my chief ally yesterDAY.

Despite these errors in judgement, I don't think that Fordim is a Wolf. Perhaps, as Boromir suggests, he's the Cobbler. Perhaps he's a mistaken innocent.

[mormegil]

Both Boromir and Fordim make good points.

The thought that Fordim is the cobbler hadn't really entered my mind but I was beginning to think that perhaps he was a wolf but what Boro said made decent sense. However I do have to admit that there was a bit of sense to Fordim's comments about Aiwnedil. I've had it in the back of my mind that perhaps I've given him too much trust and confidence and those comments accentuated it. Now is Aiwendil a wolf...that's a bit of a long shot but it is possible and I think I will keep my mind more open to this possibility. With the votes accrued there is likely to be at least one true innocent that believes Aiwnedil to be guilty.

Now this brings me to my final point I believe Boromir's recent comments about Fordim made sense and were interesting. Could it be that he is a wolf? I'm not sure but he's always been at least mid-level on my list and he is cunning. These wolves have that--cunning. So I would be willing to wager a months wage that between Fordim, Aiwendil, and Boromir we have at least a cobbler but it's probable that one is a wolf.

Now one interesting person is Formendacil, I suspect that he is innocent but there are some items of interest and he hasn't received much scrutiny as of yet. This brought me to the idea that perhaps we should do a sequential analysis of one another. Everybody would need to participate for it to work properly. It would require a decent amount of time and effort but if everybody is able and willing it could be helpful. It would work thusly:

Use the follow list (in alphabetical order)

Aiwendil
Boromir88
Fordim Hedgethistle
Formendacil
Holbytlass
Kath
Lhunardawen
Mormegil

and each person analyze the individual below him/her.

For example Aiwendil would analyse Boromir who would analyze Fordim and so on until we arrive at me and I would analyze Aiwnedil.

Though come to think of it Fordim already stated that he wouldn't be able to be around a lot so he wouldn't do it and we haven't heard from Kath or Lhuna and they haven't exhibited that they are able to dedicate an extreme amount of time...unlike some of us (this is strictly because of the amount of time I spend)

Anyway it may be of use tomorrow.

[Kath]

'Safe' votes? Please explain. I voted for those I thought to be guilty, often regardless of the votes that had gone before. I didn't vote yesterday because of bad timing. I got here late and hoped I might have time to get a vote in, but our dear mod said to be quiet just before I managed to. If you want to know who I would have voted for I'll admit that it would have been Saucepan Man because I had been having misgivings about him all day. Of course now we know he's an innocent I'm not really sure what to think. And Wayne innocent too. Did anyone get that rod thing? I thought it was just my screen playing up!

morm, this analysing plan of yours, is that for toDay or the next, because if toDay I will have enough time to do it. The only problem that I see with it though is that if two wolves happen to be next to each other then one wolf will be analysed by another, and so it is possible that they would only pick out statements that made their fellow wolf look guilty. I don't know how that problem could be overcome though since we have no known innocents. If the Hunter or the Ranger revealed themselves (as someone suggested earlier) we would have a known innocent, and if it were only the Hunter then the Ranger could stay hidden and protect the Hunter that night. If that were the case though we would have to decide on who seemed the most suspicious, or who is most likely to be working together, and then put the Hunter in between those two. But then that part would be a bit superfluous as obvioulsy there would be no point in analysing the words of the Hunter if we knew who they were.

So either we leave morm's plan as is and risk a wolf convincing us of another wolf's innocence, we reveal a Gifted or we don't do it. Being as morm would be analysing Lhuna and I'm not too keen on either of them as innocents, I'm not so sure we shouldn't just leave it. If people just analysed those they thought most suspicious it might work better.

[Boromir88]

'Safe' votes? Please explain. I voted for those I thought to be guilty, often regardless of the votes that had gone before.~Kath

Despite tha' argument, you 'ave been very safe in votin', which is prolly a bigger sign of wulfishness than not votin'. Yu kep yur 'ands clean frum an innocents blood, if ya get wut I mean.

Wulves 'ave the knowledge of whos innocen' and whos not, evryone else (cept the Seer who's dead) doesn't. An' yu keppin' yur 'ands clean an' votin' safely only makes yu look more wulfish. See, innocents like me dun 'ave the knowledge of whos a wulf and whos not, we gotta go with our gut. So, were liable to make a mistake in votin' and regretably 'ang an innocent.

Though with the wulves knowledge of who's innocen' and who aint, you can place yur votes much more strategically. Yu've been able to keep yur 'ands clean in the votin'. First night yu vote fur Fordim, second Wayne (who is lynched the next day where yu didn' vote). Now yu can go off the claim that "' 'Ey I havent killed an innocen' yet" cus yur votes 'ave been safe and fur peeple who werent lynched that day. But this act alone makes yu look even more wulfish, cus you wuld 'ave the knowledge of whos innocen', an' just by the talk yu can tell whos bein' surspected an likely to be lynched, so yu safely vote fur sumone else to keep yur 'ands clean of innocen' blood. Though, I mus' ask, do yu keep your 'ands clean of an innocent blood at night?

morm, this analysing plan of yours, is that for toDay or the next, because if toDay I will have enough time to do it.~Kath

That is if yu survive today dear. Though if there is peeple gonna be out, an' not 'round much, I say we 'old off analyzin' fur tomorrow. Though I myself will analyze Fordim' if thats still the wish, cus I got the suspishun 'es the cobbler.

[Kath]

But I have never claimed not to have been involved in lynching an innocent. My votes so far seem to have been for those who later turned out to be innocent. I am no wolf Boro, though some of my actions may make me appear wolvish. The reason I haven't voted for those who had accumulated the most votes is because mostly I did not find them guilty enough to vote for, and that includes spawn on the first day.

Oops, gotta bum. I'll be back later. Feel free to suspect me, it's rather enjoyable, but please don't allow your scrutiny of me to blind you to those who are wolves.

[Aiwendil]

Well, I see no harm in doing my part in Mormegil's analysis plan, at least. I'm not going to analyze every post by Boromir, but I will look at every one that seems to say something important.

DAY 1, post 7: Typical early DAY 1 post. Throws out Lhunardawen's name. Not much to go on here.

DAY 1, post 11: Lists his suspects as Gurthang, Rune, and Aiwendil, citing his belief that a Wolf is among those that have spoken up to that point.

DAY 1, post 48: Throws some suspicion at Holbytlass for her (facetious, I think) first DAY list. Names his top suspects as Holbytlass and Gurthang.

DAY 1, post 53: After leading us through his process of elimination, he arrives at Spawn and Lhunardawen as his chief suspects. His main reason appears to be that they voted early.

DAY 1, posts 64, 66: Names Spawn as his chief suspect. After ensuring that I'm around to prevent a double-lynch, cross-posts his vote for Spawn with mine.

DAY 1 analysis: His suspicions changed substantially over the course of the day before he finally homed in on Spawn. This is understandable for an innocent on DAY 1. If he is a Wolf, he may have decided to sacrifice Spawn near the end of the DAY. Or he may have believed that I would vote for her in any case (even if it caused a double lynch) - or that SPM would vote for her - and therefore, thinking her death was inevitable, he voted for her. Or perhaps Formendacil is a Wolf as well, and seeing that it was inevitable that one of the two would be lynched that day, he voted for Spawn.

DAY 2, post 84: Names Fordim and Aiwendil as most likely innocent and Rune, Holbytlass, and Wilwarin as his top suspects.

DAY 2, post 101: Defends himself against the charge (made by SPM) that he may have "turned on Spawn at the end". He claims that he suspected Spawn through most of the DAY. A simple review of his posts indicates that this is not true - only in post 53 did he first mention Spawn. Goes on to suggest that we should look at obvious candidates and not come up with "crazy theories". Lists Formendacil, Fordim, The Saucepan Man, and Aiwendil as likely innocent. Does not suspect Wilwarin because her vote was too obvious for a Wolf. His top suspect is Rune.

DAY 2, post 129: Repeats some of his earlier comments on Rune and Wilwarin. Complains about Gurthang and Wayne. Says he will most likely vote for Rune.

DAY 2, post 128: Repeats some earlier suspicions and votes for Rune.

DAY 2 analysis: He was consistent in pushing for Rune throughout the DAY; he vacillated concerning Holbytlass, Wilwarin, Gurthang, and Wayne. All of these except Holbytlass are now known innocents - though of course all were widely suspected on DAY 2. If he's innocent, he was (like many of us) misled by their behaviour. If he's guilty, he was riding the currents of suspicion on DAY 2 and helping to push for the lynching of an innocent.

DAY 3, post 161: Baffled by the death of Wilwarin. Thinks Aiwendil and Fordim innocent. Is less sure, but still not suspicious, of Formendacil and Gurthang. Kath, Lhuna, and Wayne are his top suspects.

DAY 3, post 172: Cautiously voices suspicion of Mormegil and The Saucepan Man. Reiterates suspicion of Lhuna and Wayne.

DAY 3, post 200: Votes for The Saucepan Man, creating a tie between SPM and Aiwendil. This, in effect, forces the two of us to choose from among those that have received one vote: Mormegil, Wayne, and Boromir.

DAY 3, post 207: Claims to be showing us his reasoning in voting for The Saucepan Man. That reasoning is not at all clear to me from this post.

DAY 3 analysis: Again, his suspicions change over the course of the DAY. Though he voices some suspicion of The Saucepan Man prior to voting for him, his eventual vote comes as something of a surprise. It may be that he's innocent, he suspected The Saucepan Man, and that he hoped either Kath or I would add to his vote. Indeed, he may have guessed that I would be forced to vote for The Saucepan Man to save myself. As it proved, that was not the case. If he is a Wolf - well, I'm not sure how to read his vote. It's possible that he is a Wolf and he was trying to protect Kath or Lhuna - for both The Saucepan Man and I had said we would likely vote for one of those two.

DAY 4, post 220: Claims that after voting for The Saucepan Man, he decided that to take SPM at his word and consider him innocent. His chief suspects are Kath, Holbytlass, and Lhunardawen - but above all, Kath. He thinks Formendacil may be the Cobbler.

DAY 4, post 223: Now thinks Holbytlass likely to be innocent because she expressed doubts about the Gifteds revealing themselves. He thinks that it should be up to the Gifteds, but he advises only the Hunter to reveal.

DAY 4, post 234: Thinks that Fordim may be the Cobbler, due to his unexpected vote for me.

DAY 4, post 238: Points out (rightly, I think) the ways in which Kath's votes have been safe.

DAY 4 analysis (so far): He has been consistent in his suspicion of Kath and Lhuna. This seems very reasonable to me. If he's a wolf, then he's again going with the flow.