WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If we lynch an ordinary innocent (+ the wolves kill an ordo), it's 7-1-3 - and the heir is still up for grabs... but the longer it takes for the heir to take sides, the harder the heir is to spot if s/he ends up with the bad side.

Or, if the wolves kill a gifted overNight, it's 8-3, which is, again, the same. So...free for all, anybody?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Or, if the wolves kill a gifted overNight, it's 8-3, which is, again, the same. So...free for all, anybody?

Yeah.

So maybe... like Legate speculated, the first random vote ever?

I hope to do better than that though. Back in an hour or so. Hopefully we have some new faces around then.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

We are now on 9-1-3 (goodies - the heir - baddies).

If we lynch a wolf toDay (and the wolves make a kill during the Night), we'll wake up to D2 with 8-3.

If we lynch a gifted (and the wolves kill during the Night), we'll wake up to D2 with 8-3.

So it's the same result!

If we lynch an ordinary innocent (+ the wolves kill an ordo), it's 7-1-3 - and the heir is still up for grabs... but the longer it takes for the heir to take sides, the harder the heir is to spot if s/he ends up with the bad side.

Well, I personally would put a bit more stress on what happens to the Gifteds in each scenario, resp. what options are open for them there. As I think in the game of this size the roles of the Gifteds can prove decisive. But I guess it comes down to whether we are going to be optimistic or pesimistic, anyway. But like I said, it'll be interesting to hear some other peoples' thoughts on this...

EDIT: x-ed with the two

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So maybe... like Legate speculated, the first random vote ever?

Random might be fun. Anyway, I shall return several hours before DL. Do make a whole lot of noise, won't you?

[Inziladun]

Hmm. Interesting idea about getting the Heir on the good side straight away. This is a strange case where we actually have a disincentive to get a wolf on Day 1, because, as Nog noted, we'll lose an innocent simultaneously if we do. But still, I'd hate to start things off with two innocents down going into toNight, and the odds are for that at the moment if we lynch the Hunter. And here's a question: say the Hunter takes a Gifted or a wolf with xem. Who does the Heir replace, the actual first one dead, which would be the Hunter?

x/d with all since # 41

[A Little Green]

Right, I'm back, and I hope to be a bit more productive for the rest of the Day though I have an essay to write for tomorrow and should really be concentrating on that..

Anyway, I'm totally confused by the whole of the Heir discussion - though I'm glad the topic was brought up. Not only because it got people talking, but because a Day when lynching a wolf is not, in fact, a desirable option, merits some discussion on strategy.

The speculation is important, but I'm concerned about the practice. What do we do? Hunter comes out, we vote him/her? Ranger comes out, same thing? (Is that fair? And is that even possible? What if our Hunter/Ranger doesn't show up until late, or doesn't show up at all?) Everybody votes randomly and we see what happens? (Total insanity!) We act as normally, ergo try to lynch a wolf and in all probability don't hit anyway? (Technically as insane as the previous option - with the exception that this would give us more to analyse for toMorrow - since if we actually do lynch a wolf we get another.. And besides, if you really believe somebody is a wolf (not sure if anyone does though) you wouldn't want to lynch them!) And to add - most of us Europeans will be going to bed in a little while, so whatever decision we make should preferably be made rather soon.

Basically, we don't want to kill a wolf until we have killed a Gifted, right? Agh, this drives me nuts.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Interesting discussion. One other option is for the Seer to reveal immediately: we gain information on one person, we get a new Seer, and with certainty no additional wolf.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

The speculation is important, but I'm concerned about the practice. What do we do? Hunter comes out, we vote him/her? Ranger comes out, same thing? (Is that fair? And is that even possible? What if our Hunter/Ranger doesn't show up until late, or doesn't show up at all?) Everybody votes randomly and we see what happens? (Total insanity!) We act as normally, ergo try to lynch a wolf and in all probability don't hit anyway? (Technically as insane as the previous option - with the exception that this would give us more to analyse for toMorrow - since if we actually do lynch a wolf we get another

To add to the madness, there's the idea that vote analysis toMorrow could be complicated by the fact that wolves could very happily vote for each other toDay. Could we see them jumping on a bandwagon to lynch one of their own?

x/d with Eomer

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Now this makes me actually think whether the hunter should come out and we should lynch him/her and s/he could have a shot at a wolf and we could have another hunter and thus get the advantage of having the heir on our side as the new hunter.

I actually think that's a good idea. I've always been of the opinion that protecting the Hunter is pointless, and that the Hunter should want to die (it's the whole point of their role afterall). So they come forward, we lynch them, maybe get lucky and they bring a wolf down with them, then the Heir becomes the new Hunter. Hunter fulfills their purpose and the Heir is on our side, it's a good situation. Otherwise if we lynch a wolf today than they get replaced, and it's just a waste of a Day. BUT, one bad case scenario is if we do the Hunter thing and then the wolves get the Seer tonight, then we won't have the Heir to take over that role anymore. Or if the Hunter is unlucky enough to take the Ranger or Seer down with them. Hmm....there are too many scenarios here.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Basically, we don't want to kill a wolf until we have killed a Gifted, right?

Uhm...yes? It makes this game sound so nuts. "We don't want to lynch a Wolf! We want to lynch our Hunter!" We've all lost out minds...

Originally Posted by Inzil

And here's a question: say the Hunter takes a Gifted or a wolf with xem. Who does the Heir replace, the actual first one dead, which would be the Hunter?

I was wondering the same, but I'm going to venture that it would be the Hunter, since that is the one that we are actively killing.

edit: x'ed with Eomer (interesting idea, especially good one if the Seer has already managed to get a wolf) and Inzil (that's possible, if two of them don't really like the third, or if one simply starts to attract too much attention, they may back stab them knowing that they would just be getting someone else to replace them, and then they are free to kill the Gifteds without any worries, and they look good to the village for having voted a wolf)

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

To add to the madness, there's the idea that vote analysis toMorrow could be complicated by the fact that wolves could very happily vote for each other toDay. Could we see them jumping on a bandwagon to lynch one of their own?

x/d with Eomer

I didn't think about that. The wolves could easily vote their own just to look innocent when the one we lynch turns out to be a wolf. AND they'll end up with a replacement because of the heir.

[Boromir88]

If I understand this correctly, in theory, if we actually lynched the Seer on Day 1 in this village, it wouldn't be such a grave loss considering the heir is like an understudy. And if we lynch a wolf we're in the same boat tomorrow as we are today.

As it is my commitment today is going to be pretty poor, apologies.

I'm on a semi-random basis thinking of voting Lommy, cus that post about her conversation with Greenie gives me a bad feeling.

Or Lottie because I would have liked the Spaceballs clip much better.

Guess that means I'm going with one of the Ls, but not el.

[Thinlómien]

Lynching the seer might actually make the most sense, because then we get one confirmed seer dream for sure instead of the normal gamble situation (seer survives with multiple dreams or takes them to the grave).

But WAIT!

I at least have quite forgotten about one rule. The role of the one whose role the heir takes up is not revealed so we actually want to lynch an ordo toDay and leave the Heir to become a gifted, because

- if we lynch a wolf toDay, it's practically all in vain because we don't know it was a wolf or a gifted, but the wolves know this so it doesn't limit their search for gifteds at all.

- if we lynch a revealed gifted toDay, there's no way to prove his/her claim was right which might prove problematical later in case there are contesting reveals.

Actually, toDay is disgustingly good Day for a false reveal so I think we should possibly have no reveals at all. Because in the worst case there's a false reveal and a real reveal and then we lynch the wolf who gets another life and the gifted dies next Night and is not brought back.

Argh. Basically, it doesn't make much sense to do anything until we lose a gifted. But the thing that sucks is that usually a quicker game benefits the village and we just waste time if we wait for the first gifted kill.

I feel like slapping somebody.

Anyhow, it does make sense to suspect and accuse toDay because at least then we have reactions, reactions and reactions...

[A Little Green]

So should we come up with a decision of some sort? Or at least decide if we need to decide anything in the first place? Meaning, do we act normally and see what happens, or do we lynch a Gifted? (Never thought the day would come that we seriously consider that! ) In short, does everybody vote according to their own judgement, or do we try to vote together for a Gifted?

Oh. Another thought. Which just might prove a problem if we decide to lynch a Gifted. The village decides which Gifted we want lynched and kindly ask him/her to pretty please come out and sacrifice themselves. A sniggering wolf sees his/her chance and reveals. Even if the real one did, too, we'd have no effing way, on a Day 1, to know which is the real Gifted. And should that be the case, we will end up either a) accidentally lynching the wolf instead of the Gifted, thus having the Heir go to the dark side and one of our Gifted revealed, or b) succeeding in lynching the Gifted, which would leave us with a new Gifted replacing the old one, and a known wolf for the next Day.

It's a risk, in short. It's of course as much of a risk to the wolves as it is to us, and whether they want to take the risk really depends on who our wolves are. But what do you think? Do the wolves consider getting the Heir to the evil side worth potentially losing a fellow?


EDIT: x-ed with Lommy

[Nessa Telrunya]

This is shaping up to where the heir harms us almost as much as they help

If we lynch a wolf, we know we got one, but that the heir also comes out as another.

If we lynch a gifted, we don't have to worry about an extra wolf, but if it's the seer, we can also look back on everything they've said today.

Killing the heir gets rid of our backup, but also the wolves' as well.

And killing an ordo we get... Nothing.

But it's all null if we go on and ask for a reveal, because there's no way to validate before voting toDay.

EDIT: x-ed with A Little Green

[Thinlómien]

I wish I was a cobbler in this game. It would be an awful lot of fun, much more fun than trying to think creatively but avoid confusing people.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I wish I was a cobbler in this game. It would be an awful lot of fun, much more fun than trying to think creatively but avoid confusing people.

I bet the cobbler would have a blast in this kind of game XD

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I feel like slapping somebody.

Exactly...

So if the role of the one the heir inherits is not revealed, then we probably should just shut up and stop planning any "gifted-lynch" for toDay.

Actually I'd say let's go as we normally go, forget the heir for the time being and then keep our thumbs up for the heir to join our ranks eventually.

You're right, it would be a parfect game for a cobbler. Thank God we don't have one.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I at least have quite forgotten about one rule. The role of the one whose role the heir takes up is not revealed

You're right! That's a pretty good argument against trying to lynch a revealed Gifted. So, what do we do? Looks to me like random voting would probably be just as good as anything else at this point.

x/d with Nog

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Yes, fair points. The wolves could manipulate any deliberate gifted-lynch to their ends.

Ok, now I'm struggling to see anything beneficial we could do.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Yes, fair points. The wolves could manipulate any deliberate gifted-lynch to their ends.

Ok, now I'm struggling to see anything beneficial we could do.

I guess just random-vote? There's no win-win situation :/

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I at least have quite forgotten about one rule. The role of the one whose role the heir takes up is not revealed so we actually want to lynch an ordo toDay and leave the Heir to become a gifted, because

- if we lynch a wolf toDay, it's practically all in vain because we don't know it was a wolf or a gifted, but the wolves know this so it doesn't limit their search for gifteds at all.

- if we lynch a revealed gifted toDay, there's no way to prove his/her claim was right which might prove problematical later in case there are contesting reveals.

Oh crap. Okay. Right. That makes it clear at least for me. I want to go to sleep soon anyway, as I suddenly became really tired. The problem is that I don't have any idea whom to lynch, basically... even though in the last half a page or something, people became more communicative, there still isn't much. I am a bit uncomfortable perhaps with Boro, because he wants to lynch Lommy, who seems sensible to me. But that's like the best shot I have. Okay, I shall hang around for a little while yet, but I'm afraid I will just have to vote soon.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil, Eomer and Nessa

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

But what do you think? Do the wolves consider getting the Heir to the evil side worth potentially losing a fellow?

Potentially, yes. But it would depend on whether they thought they'd gain something from the early exchange; if it would make some of them look good, or something like that.

They, like us, have to balance the real benefit (getting one more to one's side) and the desirability of the chance of it extending further in time (so how the ratio evolves) and thus becoming less probable - and meaning all the hard targets of the other side are still alive.


So we just vote toDay for the one we think / find / feel / sense / ... the most suspicious and then hope for the best. At least to me the time is coming to do something like that as it's almost twenty to 1AM and I have to set my alarm on 6AM. Hopefully some of you others staying around to the DL can make better educated votes.

A moment...


EDIT: X'd with Nessa & Leg
EDIT2: Oops, forgot the most important part of the sentence of the second paragraph... (beginning with " - and meaning all...")

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

So, what do we do? Looks to me like random voting would probably be just as good as anything else at this point.

Well not really random, it doesn't mean we should completely put it off! I would just formulate it the way that random vote does not matter this time as much as it does normally (if we lynch a Gifted, it's not a disaster). And at the same time it in a way matters a lot more... but we cannot know the result until we have it.

Honestly, if we knew which role the Heir gets when he/she "rises", then it'd be far better... not to complain against our brilliant Mod, but this is just a mess.

Anyway, I just thought of, once again, of course, the problem that in fact we don't really need so much to lynch a Wolf now... but then again, still better to lynch a Wolf than an Ordo... well possibly... okay, okay, enough speculation, the scenarios are so many... I will just vote.

EDIT: x-ed with Nog

[Nessa Telrunya]

If lynching a wolf doesn't help, and we can't find out who the gifteds are, perhaps we should go for the uncommunicative? As terrible as that sounds, we can at least keep those who are helpful. :/

Should I feel terrible for saying that?

[Nogrod]

Trying to rationalise my feelings right now...

Nerwen overdid whatever she thought she was doing. Yes it was early and she just toyed around as there was little else to do... I see. But still the way she made it (and she could have done something else as well, at least instead of her last ones when there was some beginnings of a discussion coming forwards). It looks a little like that famous "X toys around too carelessly, can't be a wolf" -trick.

Let me repeat: it looks A LITTLE like that.

Funnily I both share Legate's concern on Boro - and Boro's concern on Lommy, which in turn seems to be the reason for Legate to suspect Boro in the first place...

Then again, I'd hate to lose anyone of them on D1 voting that is this odd.

Needs to do a fast check on others.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

If lynching a wolf doesn't help, and we can't find out who the gifteds are, perhaps we should go for the uncommunicative? As terrible as that sounds, we can at least keep those who are helpful. :/

Should I feel terrible for saying that?

Works for me.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

If lynching a wolf doesn't help, and we can't find out who the gifteds are, perhaps we should go for the uncommunicative? As terrible as that sounds, we can at least keep those who are helpful. :/

Should I feel terrible for saying that?

NOOO! Not the loud vs quiet debate!!!

[Nogrod]

Well then.

Ms. Hubbard will get the D1 free-pass, even if I have to say the slightly more serious suspicions on her in the early posting were not totally ungrounded. But anyway.

Also I don't remember Nessa that well - or how many games has she played. I'd say pass toDay as well, especially for her last post about the "uncommunicative" ones. *high fives*

Sally seems to be the most uncommunicative thus far but I wouldn't like to vote for someone who hasn't said anything but could as well say after I leave.

Greenie seems oddly out of the clue - not all of the time but several times. Which means nothing, actually (busy?). More or less the same goes with Wilwa (the same explanation as well?).

Careful ones? Eomer and Inzil, and naturally Legate. One of them should be a wolf...

Lottie makes sense but her activeness makes me a bit worried (all those funny YouTube -clips and that - like she wishes very much to be liked, that in case of choice she'd get the sympathy-points).

Checking back, I'm not that suspicious of Boro after all, as he said he's busy toDay. He's holding the brake on to be sure but maybe, just maybe, it's the RL.

Lommy speaks probably the most sense here. And still the way she started with that narrative about her not knowing the game had started (possibly willing to let us understand she had not received a PM to notify her) and the discussion with Greenie really looks like something I'd not think an innocent would do. Why to take that posture about your innocence in your first post of the game?

And then there is Nerwen who overdid it like I said in my previous post. And why all that wannabe-voting? Just to look like someone who doesn't care if someone suspects you for acting randomly? I mean it's not that good a joke after all...

A cigarette to collect my thoughts. And then a vote.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

NOOO! Not the loud vs quiet debate!!!

NOt seen that in a long time!

But hey, let's not debate it?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nog

Lommy speaks probably the most sense here. And still the way she started with that narrative about her not knowing the game had started (possibly willing to let us understand she had not received a PM to notify her) and the discussion with Greenie really looks like something I'd not think an innocent would do. Why to take that posture about your innocence in your first post of the game?

No, you misunderstand me. I wasn't around at all so I wouldn't have known the game had started even if I had got a role PM so I was just worried I had gotten a role PM which required Nightly action and missed Night1. So, the conversation doesn't prove (or disprove) my innocence/guilt. At most it suggests I'm not fellow wolves with Greenie. It was just a funny story to share and an example of the extent of my confusion...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Do you reckon there's a back-up heir, in case he/she chokes first? There must be.

[A Little Green]

It's past time for me to start seriously thinking about my vote. I think Nessa makes sense in suggesting we lynch someone uncommunicative. I'm not sure, though, if she meant 'uncommunicative' as in 'absent' (which might be considered unsportsmanlike) or 'uncommunicative' as in 'not productive' (which I'm more than fine with).

So let's see:

Won't vote for:
Elronhubbard - Won't vote her since it's her first game.
Nessa - Is this her first game too, or have I just not played with her before? Either way, I won't vote her.

The two I have some kind of moral dilemma with:
Sally - Absent; wouldn't like to vote her until she shows up. Did she say something about internet problems?
Nerwen - Can't say she's been productive, but to be fair, she was around at the time of Day when nothing productive could really be said.

And the rest have all been posting on topic, at least a little, or a lot in some cases, and whether I agree with what they say or not I have nothing really to say about their possible alignments. In sum, all sensible and cute and I don't want to vote any one of them.
Wilwa
Lottie
Lommy
Boro
Eomer
Inzil
Nogrod
Legate

So basically, I don't want to vote anyone. I would love to reread but it's outrageously late and I seriously need some sleep.

For the record, I hate this deadline.


EDIT: x-ed since Lommie's epic NOOOOOOOOOOO! <3

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, a fine mess we're in, Mr Baggins, and no mistake.

++LEGATE

Gotta kill someone, right? Bloodlust to sate, and all that.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Sally - Absent; wouldn't like to vote her until she shows up. Did she say something about internet problems?

More like no internet at all. The only way I can get online? My blackberry.

I'm on now though, and I'll do what I can while I'm here (at my mum's doing laundry).

[Thinlómien]

Wilwa - under the reindeer. Quite honestly no idea but more positive than negative vibes, maybe.
Lottie - active and helpful but maybe even too nice as Nog said.
Boro - I don't remember anything he said except that he suspects me for some vague reasons. No good, Mr88, my bororadar doesn't flash innocent - but not guilty either, given your inactivity this far.
Sally - hasn't been around, or...?
Nerwen - weird and overtly bantery and slightly aggressive. Err???
Elronhubbard - kind of touchy, but maybe we should give her the newbie pass.
Eomer - sneaky but maybe more innocent than guilty.
Greenie - no read. Seems slightly confused but eager to make a point.
Inzil - funny (in the ordinary sense of the word). But that's it, mostly.
Nogrod - philosophering all around in a slightly artificial manner. Makes me raise my eyebrows a bit.
Legate - philosophering around in sort of "I have already given up" manner. Not sure what to make of it.
Nessa - chirpy. Sort of tries to make people like her? Anyway I'd be sad to see her go before I have had enough time to study her and save the data in my werewolf lorebook for next time we play together.

Summa summarum: I don't seem to be suspecting anybody. Tough luck, especially as I'd prefer to vote and be gone in half an hour.


edit: xed with everyone

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nog

Greenie seems oddly out of the clue - not all of the time but several times. Which means nothing, actually (busy?).

Well, your observation is pretty justified since I am currently both clueless and busy.

Also, Eomer? Why Legate? Or, is there a reason other than that we gotta kill someone?


EDIT: x-ed with Lommy

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Nerwen - Can't say she's been productive, but to be fair, she was around at the time of Day when nothing productive could really be said.

Disagree. She could have started the discussion about the heir, for example, like I did only a few hours later and with just as little material, but she didn't. (And I hope this does not look like I'm hypocritically underlining my own productivity because it's more like meant to demonstrate Nerwen's "laziness" and this was the first example that occurred to me.)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I simply see more of a wolvish look in his posts. Nothing substantial, though. Or maybe I'm subconsciously detecting a Hunter-vibe in him.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

That's pretty much the only good thing we can do, actually. All, set your Hunter-detectors on full blast; we'll kill him or her now and take the small chance that we'll be one wolf down tomorrow.

But how do we catch a Hunter? Enkhuizer Almanak states that hunters have slightly pointed tongues, a professional grasp of dramatic irony, and a penchant for slivovitsj uncommon in wolves.

But Sinterklaas presents are usually pretty cheap and so may be unreliable.

G'night.

[Thinlómien]

++Nerwen

Has been very weird and slightly unconstructive.

Plus early Nerwen lynch is damage control regardless of her role because she's always the agonizing questionmark in the endgame and often a wolf.

Okay, that was probably one of my least reasoned votes in recent ww history. My apologies for that, but I really need to go to bed and get done with my remaining 20 pages of history.

Good night!


edit: xed with Eomer