Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow. - Page 17 - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

littlemanpoet · 03-23-2006, 07:28 PM

I dreamed Celuien last Night. How frustrating. It could have been five known innocents and a mathematical game from here on out. Oh well.

Spawn and I dreamt of Lhuna on Night 1, but we didn't want to vote for her on Day 1 because we feared that we'd both look like the two seers. So I've stayed as hidden as I could.

The other three innocents are:

Gurthang,
Lalaith,
Cailín.

There you have it. It's been swell. Carry on everyone, I'll be dead come morning.

Caranlondien · 03-23-2006, 07:45 PM

Oh... dear.

I couldn't be sorrier... So, um... sorry. I just, well, wondered why the werewolves hadn't killed so obvious a target. And maybe it was so that this would happen.

I know this looks bad for me, but, I just hope you'll look carefully at tar-a, too (Although I sympathize with her, because I was thinking the same thing).

If I were in your collective shoes, I would lynch me. So I don't really know what to say about that. But I'll go back... and re-read, with the knowledge I have now.

EDIT: typo

Gurthang · 03-23-2006, 07:50 PM

Ahem, I no longer want to lynch littlemanpoet.

Unless someone else comes and claims to be the Seer, I'm going to take Elempi at his word.

First off, thank you very much LMP, you've been an awesome Seer. Getting three innocents should definitely more than enough. Sorry, if I flushed you out.

Okay, new plan. Taking out the known innocents from my list we get:

Caranlondien
Valier
Naria
Samwise
Thin
tar-a
Formendacil

My top four still have yet to vote, so I'll wait until they do to vote. Anyone who has to leave, please vote for someone other than Samwise or the newly released innocents. We need to do a double toDay.

SamwiseGamgee · 03-23-2006, 07:59 PM

We have seven votes left. At present I have three and LMP has one.

I recall my ancestors suggesting something similar to what I'm about to say now, and it didn't go over well then, but here's my suggestion: we lynch LMP today along with someone else. This would remove the obvious choice from the wolves of who to kill tonight, and we may be able to glean something from who they decide to eat come nightfall. As I see it, LMP will be dead by sunrise. It's cold, but I think it may just be in the best interests of the village if we kill him ourselves rather than leave him to the wolves.

Gurthang · 03-23-2006, 07:59 PM

Caranlondien is actually sitting very well with me. She has been taking most of this calmly, and quite frankly in an unwolfish manner.

I'd suggest double lynching Samwise and Valier toDay.

Oh, and to Naria and Caran: Please do not vote for Samwise. I will think better of both of you if you would vote for Valier. I can't really ask her to vote for herself, nor would I ask Samwise to do the same to himself.

I almost feel like I'm taking over the village, but I think we can win if we act quickly. I'd love to see the following votes:

Naria - Valier
Caran - Valier
Valier - Samwise
Samwise - Valier

That would put it to:

Samwise - 4
Valier - 3

And then Lalaith, Cailin and I can handle it from there. Lalaith and Cailin, how long can you stick around?

Caranlondien · 03-23-2006, 08:00 PM

Um, I have to go soon. So I'm wondering who to vote for.

Like I said, I understand if you guys do a double-lynch of me and Samwise; but as I know I'm innocent, I have to choose someone else to vote for. I don't want to make it any more difficult for you guys to coordinate the double-lynch by giving Samwise another vote. I'm leaning towards Naria.

EDIT: cross-posted with Gurthang.

Caranlondien · 03-23-2006, 08:04 PM

I don't think I like Samwise's idea... it just gives the werewolves an extra kill. And I don't think their kill tonight will tell us anything, except that they can read.

EDIT: I have to stop getting so excited; Too many typos lately...

littlemanpoet · 03-23-2006, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

We have seven votes left. At present I have three and LMP has one.

I recall my ancestors suggesting something similar to what I'm about to say now, and it didn't go over well then, but here's my suggestion: we lynch LMP today along with someone else. This would remove the obvious choice from the wolves of who to kill tonight, and we may be able to glean something from who they decide to eat come nightfall. As I see it, LMP will be dead by sunrise. It's cold, but I think it may just be in the best interests of the village if we kill him ourselves rather than leave him to the wolves.

Now he, my dear ladies and gentlemen, is a most wolvish post. By lynching me along with someone else, you remove the werewolves' need to kill me during the Night. Only a werewolf would have the gall to suggest lynching a known innocent. Do the werewolves' work for them? I think not. Werewolves are getting desperate now, I dare say.

Caranlondien · 03-23-2006, 08:08 PM

I have to go now, so I'll follow Gurthang's plan:

++Valier

littlemanpoet · 03-23-2006, 08:11 PM

I agree that Caranlondien should not be one of the lynchees. She feels innocent to me.

I'm still not convinced that you guys want to do a double lynch toDay, not as long as there are two werewolves out there. Even though I doubt Samwise is innocent, I don't want to see the village risking another double lynch of innocents.

If you lynch just Samwise and he turns out to be innocent, there are still 9 villagers tomorrow, with still more voting record. If he turns out to be a werewolf, as I expect, then with three known innocents left, plus such redoubtably believable villagers such as tar-ancalime and maybe even Caranolondien, the chances for the werewolves will look slim indeed.

Uh oh, just had an awful thought. What if tar has been doing an incredible job of pulling the wool over all our eyes?

Ack! Stop that, LMP! One lynchee at a time, I say!

Gurthang · 03-23-2006, 08:25 PM

I don't know. I think we have at least an equal shot, if not a better one, if we do a double-lynching toDay. We've already decided to off Samwise toDay, and it seems that if we do a double lynching now, we get that one extra kill over the wolves. That's what I would do if it was up to me, but LMP has the call, since he the Seer

Anyway, you know what I'd like to do. I have to leave for about an hour and a half. I'll save my vote until close to the end.

Valier · 03-23-2006, 08:31 PM

Wow what a quick change in plans!! I come back after a couple of hours and now I'm up for a double lynch! I tell you you are making a mistake! I swear this is always how I get lynched, with someone more suspisious than me and I get killed for being what? I don't get why the sudden change and vote for me?

I am an Ordo I assure you, if you kill me today you may just kill two innocents again! Or at least one (me!)

Caranlondien · 03-23-2006, 09:05 PM

I thought I wouldn't be able to get back, but I have, for just a little while. It seems to me that Gurthang is right about double-lynches. We are in a race now to get the werewolves before they manage to kill all the known innocents. That's just my thought on it; I may be overlooking something.

littlemanpoet · 03-23-2006, 10:03 PM

If you think a double lynch is the best strategy, do it. I wish the ordos the best. Fare thee well. I'll see you all on the other side.....

Naria · 03-23-2006, 10:11 PM

Quote:

Oh, and to Naria and Caran: Please do not vote for Samwise. I will think better of both of you if you would vote for Valier

What? Huh?!! I come back and this is what has happened! I don't agree with it. I really don't care what you are to think of me Gurthang...it hasn't bothered me up to this point why should it bother me any further. I do however, think Samwise to be a little furry in light of our dear Seer's thoughts. And I think a congratulations is in order for all of those who forced Lmp out!

I had absolutely no suspicion of him in any way. If you had read his post when he mentions being 'valued', I mean actually read it, that is where you would have come to the same conclusion as I did.

With my rant over I would like to say that Caran is actually becoming quite suspicious to me. If you were to think of it, how could a newbie know as much as she does, being this is her First ww game? She has consistently said and done all of the 'right' things in our eyes without much hesitation right from Day one. Since the wolves are able to pm eachother Day and Night, this would explain why she has been able to keep her cool so to speak and just follow and listen to the advice from a more experienced wolf. If she is an Ordo, then hats off to her, but I just don't think she is. Either her or Samwise will get my vote this Day.

Caranlondien · 03-23-2006, 10:26 PM

Naria: Gurthang asked us not to vote for Samwise because he wants to coordinate a double-lynch. If you guys want to double-lynch me and Samwise, I'm fine with that, because I understand the need to get rid of "the unknowns." I can also potentially see questions as to my guilt being a distraction from useful discussion. I already voted for Valier because I didn't expect I'd be able to get back toDay, and since Gurthang is a known innocent, I thought it would be a good idea to follow his plan.

As for my being suspicious because I'm a newbie, it should be noted that my brother has told me tales of a village our ancestors lived in... (Which is, in fact, why I came to live in this fair town).

Gurthang · 03-23-2006, 10:30 PM

Very well, Valier and Naria have voiced their opposition to following the plan I suggested.

Here's how I would break it down. If we start doing double lynches, the Days would go as follows.

ToDay: 4 knowns to 7 unknowns ; we lynch 2 unknowns.
ToNight: 4 knowns to 5 unknowns ; one known (likely LMP) dies.
Tomorrow: 3 knowns to 5 unknowns; we do a double lynch of two unknowns.
Tomorrow Night: 3 knowns to 3 unknowns; one known dies.
Next Day: 2 knowns to 3 unknowns; another double lynch.

At this point there are 2 knowns left and 1 unknown. If the one unknown happens to be a wolf, then the game is over in the wolves favor. If that one unknown is not a wolf, then the village has won. Doing it this way gives us, as a village, a 5/7 chance of winning. That's 71%. Meaning if we just drew names from a hat, we would have that good of a chance of winning.

If we do single lynchings from here on out, it would go more like this:

Today: 4 to 7 (knowns to unknowns)
ToNight: 4 to 6
Tomorrow: 3 to 6
Tomorrow Night: 3 to 5
Next Day: 2 to 5
Next Night: 2 to 4
Next Day: 1 to 4
Next Night: 1 to 3
Next Day: 0 to 3

The wolves would only need to survive that last day. That means that of the two people who would be left, only 1 needs to be a wolf. In my mind, this effectively doubles the wolves chances of winning, because they don't have to be the last unknown, they just have to be one of the last two unknowns.

Anyone still in doubt of the merit of doing double lynchings from here on out? And regardless of if you do, I think that we should at least do one toDay while we have the advantage of knowing four peoples innocence.

Gurthang · 03-23-2006, 10:39 PM

Wait a minute. If I read the game thread correctly, tar-a will be taken away toNight. This is good for us as a village. Let me redo my numbers.

ToDay: 4 knowns to 6 unknowns ; we lynch 2 unknowns.
ToNight: 4 knowns to 4 unknowns ; one known (likely LMP) dies.
Tomorrow: 3 knowns to 4 unknowns; we do a double lynch of two unknowns.
Tomorrow Night: 3 knowns to 2 unknowns; one known dies.
Next Day: 2 knowns to 2 unknowns; another double lynch.

Leaving 2 knowns and no one else for the villager win.

Valier and Naria, if you are really innocent villagers, then you must see that we can win doing this. Please, realize that the village has the victory in the bag if we work together.

P.S. if the wolves would decide to kill tar-a toNight, it would leave our Seer alive for another dream.

Valier · 03-23-2006, 10:46 PM

So what are you saying Gurthang that I should sacrifice myself for the good of the village?

Gurthang · 03-23-2006, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valier

So what are you saying Gurthang that I should sacrifice myself for the good of the village?

If you're innocent, yes. If you do, it guarantees a win for the village.

Valier · 03-23-2006, 10:51 PM

I don't get all this math! Explain to me how this will work? What if Sam is an Ordo too?

Caranlondien · 03-23-2006, 10:53 PM

Valier: Unfortunately, LMP didn't dream about us. So people don't know whether we're innocent. Gurthang's plan gives us the best chance of winning. This plan won't allow us to completely avoid lynching innocents; So some of us have to be lynched for the greater good.

So, yes, he's asking you to sacrifice yourself for the good of the village.

Valier · 03-23-2006, 10:55 PM

Well I can't say I agree with this "plan" but I will wait if others agree........well who knows?

Caranlondien · 03-23-2006, 10:55 PM

My last post was cross-posted with Gurthang and Valier.

The idea is that we kill everyone on the "unknowns" list; this is the only method that guarantees we'll kill the wolves.

Valier · 03-23-2006, 10:59 PM

Well there is four votes besides myself...I hope others arrive soon and give their input.

Gurthang · 03-23-2006, 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valier

I don't get all this math! Explain to me how this will work? What if Sam is an Ordo too?

If both you and Samwise are ordinary and lynched tonight, then that would mean we would have 4 known innocents (LMP, Me, Cailin, Lalaith) and 5 people that we don't know about (Caran, Naria, tar-a, Form, Thin).

The wolves are most likely going to kill LMP toNight. That would leave us with 3 known innocents (Me, Cailin, Lalaith) going into tomorrow. Nilp left a post in the Original WW thread saying that tar-a will be 'whisked away' toNight because of RL issues. That will leave 4 unknown people (Caran, Naria, Form, Thin).

We would do another double lynching tomorrow of (maybe) Caran and Naria, leaving 3 known innocents (Me, Cailin, Lalaith) and 2 unknowns (Form, Thin).

Another known innocent dies during the next Night. Let's say it's me. That leaves Cailin and Lalaith left to coordinate that double lynching of Form and Thin.

So, at the end, we have Cailin and Lalaith left standing for the villager victory.

Despite your questioning, Valier, I almost believe you about being innocent. The only trouble is that we have to do a double toDay, and I don't think we can get both Samwise and Naria, who I believe are our wolves. They both have yet to vote, so I think that you and Samwise are the only double lynch we could pull off. And like I said, we have to start toDay if we want to do this.

Caranlondien · 03-23-2006, 11:09 PM

Thinlomien -> Samwise (Samwise 1)
Formendacil -> Samwise (Samwise 2)
littlemanpoet -> Samwise (Samwise 3)
tar-ancalime -> LMP (Samwise 3, LMP 1)
Caranlondien -> Valier (Samwise 3, Valier 1, LMP 1)

As I've said before, I like lists

Sorry if my early vote limited our options, but I was concerned I wouldn't be able to get back toDay, and I knew that all the votes were important if we wanted to pull of a double-lynch.

Gurthang · 03-23-2006, 11:11 PM

Valier, this may seem like an odd request, but I think that we might have some trouble with Samwise and Naria. Hold out as long as you can, but if they haven't voted yet when you need to leave, do you think you could vote for yourself? That would help us out immensely.

I don't know where Cailin or Lalaith are; I trust that they'll be here before the deadline, though.

Caranlondien · 03-23-2006, 11:12 PM

Quote:

Another known innocent dies during the next Night. Let's say it's me. That leaves Cailin and Lalaith left to coordinate that double lynching of Form and Thin.

Wait... worst case scenario, Form and Thin are the last two werewolves. In that case it's a wolf win, isn't it?

Sorry, I thought I understood it and then I started getting tired...

Caranlondien · 03-23-2006, 11:16 PM

I mean in your hypothetical situation... What I meant was that the worst case scenario would be that the two unknowns left are wolves.

Naria · 03-23-2006, 11:20 PM

So Tar-a 'being whisked away' doesn't necessarily mean that the wolves will kill her toNight?

Valier · 03-23-2006, 11:21 PM

*Pouts*

Caranlondien · 03-23-2006, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Naria

So Tar-a 'being whisked away' doesn't necessarily mean that the wolves will kill her toNight?

Well, the ModGod didn't say that she would be killed by wolves, so I think it would be safer to assume not.

Gurthang · 03-23-2006, 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Wait... worst case scenario, Form and Thin are the last two werewolves. In that case it's a wolf win, isn't it?

Yes, this is true, and the only way that the wolves could win. But, as a village, we only need to lynch one werewolf in the next two days for that not to happen. I hope we are capable of doing that at least.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Naria

So Tar-a 'being whisked away' doesn't necessarily mean that the wolves will kill her toNight?

I don't know. If the wolves did kill her, then that would mean that LMP would be left alive for another dream. That would actually be very good for the village if they decided to kill tar-a.

Valier · 03-23-2006, 11:27 PM

Quote:

I don't know. If the wolves did kill her, then that would mean that LMP would be left alive for another dream. That would actually be very good for the village if they decided to kill tar-a.

This is laughable!!! Ya ok the wolves won't kill the self confessed seer....Ha!

Caranlondien · 03-23-2006, 11:28 PM

I think Gurthang means if the ModGod decides that the wolves decide to kill tar-a

Valier · 03-23-2006, 11:31 PM

Huh? I totally didn't get that?

Gurthang · 03-23-2006, 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valier

*Pouts*

Don't look at me!

If you're mad about me asking you to vote for yourself, then blame Naria. If she would hurry up and vote, then you wouldn't have to vote for yourself. If Naria votes for you, then you need to vote for Samwise. Or, if you really feel suicidal, you can still vote for yourself if you want to.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valier

This is laughable!!! Ya ok the wolves won't kill the self confessed seer....Ha!

Yes, they don't have much of a choice. If they kill LMP, then tar-a dies anyway, thus giving the village the double-lynch to victory. If they kill tar-a, littlemanpoet is left alive to dream yet another Night. I think it was just Naria trying to find a loophole.

Caranlondien · 03-23-2006, 11:34 PM

What I was thinking was that since Tar-a had to leave anyway, the ModGod would just "write her in" so to speak, as dying at the wolves' hands; he would make the decision for them.

I don't know if that's how things will go, though.

Gurthang · 03-23-2006, 11:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

I think Gurthang means if the ModGod decides that the wolves decide to kill tar-a

Okay, let me try to explain what I was thinking.

The whole thing about lynching our way to victory is only "guaranteed" (as much as it can be) if two die toNight. Knowing this, the wolves will only want to kill one. But, that doesn't work in their favor either.

If they want one to die, they would have to pick tar-a, who will die regardless. But that leaves LMP alive to dream again, which helps the village.

But if they choose LMP, then tar-a will be gone anyway, and the double-lynching plan will be followed through.

03-23-2006, 07:45 PM	#642
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	Oh... dear. I couldn't be sorrier... So, um... sorry. I just, well, wondered why the werewolves hadn't killed so obvious a target. And maybe it was so that this would happen. I know this looks bad for me, but, I just hope you'll look carefully at tar-a, too (Although I sympathize with her, because I was thinking the same thing). If I were in your collective shoes, I would lynch me. So I don't really know what to say about that. But I'll go back... and re-read, with the knowledge I have now. EDIT: typo Last edited by Caranlondien; 03-23-2006 at 07:54 PM.

03-23-2006, 07:50 PM	#643
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,507	Ahem, I no longer want to lynch littlemanpoet. Unless someone else comes and claims to be the Seer, I'm going to take Elempi at his word. First off, thank you very much LMP, you've been an awesome Seer. Getting three innocents should definitely more than enough. Sorry, if I flushed you out. Okay, new plan. Taking out the known innocents from my list we get: Caranlondien Valier Naria Samwise Thin tar-a Formendacil My top four still have yet to vote, so I'll wait until they do to vote. Anyone who has to leave, please vote for someone other than Samwise or the newly released innocents. We need to do a double toDay. __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.

03-23-2006, 07:59 PM	#644
SamwiseGamgee Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: In the warm bosom of a Warg Posts: 378	We have seven votes left. At present I have three and LMP has one. I recall my ancestors suggesting something similar to what I'm about to say now, and it didn't go over well then, but here's my suggestion: we lynch LMP today along with someone else. This would remove the obvious choice from the wolves of who to kill tonight, and we may be able to glean something from who they decide to eat come nightfall. As I see it, LMP will be dead by sunrise. It's cold, but I think it may just be in the best interests of the village if we kill him ourselves rather than leave him to the wolves. __________________ -- Well, I'm back.

03-23-2006, 07:59 PM	#645
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,507	Caranlondien is actually sitting very well with me. She has been taking most of this calmly, and quite frankly in an unwolfish manner. I'd suggest double lynching Samwise and Valier toDay. Oh, and to Naria and Caran: Please do not vote for Samwise. I will think better of both of you if you would vote for Valier. I can't really ask her to vote for herself, nor would I ask Samwise to do the same to himself. I almost feel like I'm taking over the village, but I think we can win if we act quickly. I'd love to see the following votes: Naria - Valier Caran - Valier Valier - Samwise Samwise - Valier That would put it to: Samwise - 4 Valier - 3 And then Lalaith, Cailin and I can handle it from there. Lalaith and Cailin, how long can you stick around? __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.

03-23-2006, 08:25 PM	#651
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,507	I don't know. I think we have at least an equal shot, if not a better one, if we do a double-lynching toDay. We've already decided to off Samwise toDay, and it seems that if we do a double lynching now, we get that one extra kill over the wolves. That's what I would do if it was up to me, but LMP has the call, since he the Seer Anyway, you know what I'd like to do. I have to leave for about an hour and a half. I'll save my vote until close to the end. __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.

03-23-2006, 07:28 PM	#641
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,072	I dreamed Celuien last Night. How frustrating. It could have been five known innocents and a mathematical game from here on out. Oh well. Spawn and I dreamt of Lhuna on Night 1, but we didn't want to vote for her on Day 1 because we feared that we'd both look like the two seers. So I've stayed as hidden as I could. The other three innocents are: Gurthang, Lalaith, Cailín. There you have it. It's been swell. Carry on everyone, I'll be dead come morning.

03-23-2006, 08:00 PM	#646
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	Um, I have to go soon. So I'm wondering who to vote for. Like I said, I understand if you guys do a double-lynch of me and Samwise; but as I know I'm innocent, I have to choose someone else to vote for. I don't want to make it any more difficult for you guys to coordinate the double-lynch by giving Samwise another vote. I'm leaning towards Naria. EDIT: cross-posted with Gurthang.

03-23-2006, 08:04 PM	#647
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	I don't think I like Samwise's idea... it just gives the werewolves an extra kill. And I don't think their kill tonight will tell us anything, except that they can read. EDIT: I have to stop getting so excited; Too many typos lately...

03-23-2006, 08:08 PM	#649
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	I have to go now, so I'll follow Gurthang's plan: ++Valier

03-23-2006, 08:11 PM	#650
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,072	I agree that Caranlondien should not be one of the lynchees. She feels innocent to me. I'm still not convinced that you guys want to do a double lynch toDay, not as long as there are two werewolves out there. Even though I doubt Samwise is innocent, I don't want to see the village risking another double lynch of innocents. If you lynch just Samwise and he turns out to be innocent, there are still 9 villagers tomorrow, with still more voting record. If he turns out to be a werewolf, as I expect, then with three known innocents left, plus such redoubtably believable villagers such as tar-ancalime and maybe even Caranolondien, the chances for the werewolves will look slim indeed. Uh oh, just had an awful thought. What if tar has been doing an incredible job of pulling the wool over all our eyes? Ack! Stop that, LMP! One lynchee at a time, I say!

03-23-2006, 08:31 PM	#652
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,737	Wow what a quick change in plans!! I come back after a couple of hours and now I'm up for a double lynch! I tell you you are making a mistake! I swear this is always how I get lynched, with someone more suspisious than me and I get killed for being what? I don't get why the sudden change and vote for me? I am an Ordo I assure you, if you kill me today you may just kill two innocents again! Or at least one (me!) __________________ grand return?........

03-23-2006, 09:05 PM	#653
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	I thought I wouldn't be able to get back, but I have, for just a little while. It seems to me that Gurthang is right about double-lynches. We are in a race now to get the werewolves before they manage to kill all the known innocents. That's just my thought on it; I may be overlooking something.

03-23-2006, 10:03 PM	#654
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,072	If you think a double lynch is the best strategy, do it. I wish the ordos the best. Fare thee well. I'll see you all on the other side.....

03-23-2006, 10:26 PM	#656
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	Naria: Gurthang asked us not to vote for Samwise because he wants to coordinate a double-lynch. If you guys want to double-lynch me and Samwise, I'm fine with that, because I understand the need to get rid of "the unknowns." I can also potentially see questions as to my guilt being a distraction from useful discussion. I already voted for Valier because I didn't expect I'd be able to get back toDay, and since Gurthang is a known innocent, I thought it would be a good idea to follow his plan. As for my being suspicious because I'm a newbie, it should be noted that my brother has told me tales of a village our ancestors lived in... (Which is, in fact, why I came to live in this fair town).

03-23-2006, 10:30 PM	#657
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,507	Very well, Valier and Naria have voiced their opposition to following the plan I suggested. Here's how I would break it down. If we start doing double lynches, the Days would go as follows. ToDay: 4 knowns to 7 unknowns ; we lynch 2 unknowns. ToNight: 4 knowns to 5 unknowns ; one known (likely LMP) dies. Tomorrow: 3 knowns to 5 unknowns; we do a double lynch of two unknowns. Tomorrow Night: 3 knowns to 3 unknowns; one known dies. Next Day: 2 knowns to 3 unknowns; another double lynch. At this point there are 2 knowns left and 1 unknown. If the one unknown happens to be a wolf, then the game is over in the wolves favor. If that one unknown is not a wolf, then the village has won. Doing it this way gives us, as a village, a 5/7 chance of winning. That's 71%. Meaning if we just drew names from a hat, we would have that good of a chance of winning. If we do single lynchings from here on out, it would go more like this: Today: 4 to 7 (knowns to unknowns) ToNight: 4 to 6 Tomorrow: 3 to 6 Tomorrow Night: 3 to 5 Next Day: 2 to 5 Next Night: 2 to 4 Next Day: 1 to 4 Next Night: 1 to 3 Next Day: 0 to 3 The wolves would only need to survive that last day. That means that of the two people who would be left, only 1 needs to be a wolf. In my mind, this effectively doubles the wolves chances of winning, because they don't have to be the last unknown, they just have to be one of the last two unknowns. Anyone still in doubt of the merit of doing double lynchings from here on out? And regardless of if you do, I think that we should at least do one toDay while we have the advantage of knowing four peoples innocence. __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.

03-23-2006, 10:39 PM	#658
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,507	Wait a minute. If I read the game thread correctly, tar-a will be taken away toNight. This is good for us as a village. Let me redo my numbers. ToDay: 4 knowns to 6 unknowns ; we lynch 2 unknowns. ToNight: 4 knowns to 4 unknowns ; one known (likely LMP) dies. Tomorrow: 3 knowns to 4 unknowns; we do a double lynch of two unknowns. Tomorrow Night: 3 knowns to 2 unknowns; one known dies. Next Day: 2 knowns to 2 unknowns; another double lynch. Leaving 2 knowns and no one else for the villager win. Valier and Naria, if you are really innocent villagers, then you must see that we can win doing this. Please, realize that the village has the victory in the bag if we work together. P.S. if the wolves would decide to kill tar-a toNight, it would leave our Seer alive for another dream. __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.

03-23-2006, 10:46 PM	#659
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,737	So what are you saying Gurthang that I should sacrifice myself for the good of the village? __________________ grand return?........

03-23-2006, 10:51 PM	#661
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,737	I don't get all this math! Explain to me how this will work? What if Sam is an Ordo too? __________________ grand return?........

03-23-2006, 10:53 PM	#662
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	Valier: Unfortunately, LMP didn't dream about us. So people don't know whether we're innocent. Gurthang's plan gives us the best chance of winning. This plan won't allow us to completely avoid lynching innocents; So some of us have to be lynched for the greater good. So, yes, he's asking you to sacrifice yourself for the good of the village.

03-23-2006, 10:55 PM	#663
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,737	Well I can't say I agree with this "plan" but I will wait if others agree........well who knows? __________________ grand return?........

03-23-2006, 10:55 PM	#664
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	My last post was cross-posted with Gurthang and Valier. The idea is that we kill everyone on the "unknowns" list; this is the only method that guarantees we'll kill the wolves.

03-23-2006, 10:59 PM	#665
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,737	Well there is four votes besides myself...I hope others arrive soon and give their input. __________________ grand return?........

03-23-2006, 11:09 PM	#667
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	Thinlomien -> Samwise (Samwise 1) Formendacil -> Samwise (Samwise 2) littlemanpoet -> Samwise (Samwise 3) tar-ancalime -> LMP (Samwise 3, LMP 1) Caranlondien -> Valier (Samwise 3, Valier 1, LMP 1) As I've said before, I like lists Sorry if my early vote limited our options, but I was concerned I wouldn't be able to get back toDay, and I knew that all the votes were important if we wanted to pull of a double-lynch.

03-23-2006, 11:11 PM	#668
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,507	Valier, this may seem like an odd request, but I think that we might have some trouble with Samwise and Naria. Hold out as long as you can, but if they haven't voted yet when you need to leave, do you think you could vote for yourself? That would help us out immensely. I don't know where Cailin or Lalaith are; I trust that they'll be here before the deadline, though. __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.

03-23-2006, 11:16 PM	#670
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	I mean in your hypothetical situation... What I meant was that the worst case scenario would be that the two unknowns left are wolves.

03-23-2006, 11:20 PM	#671
Naria Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 501	So Tar-a 'being whisked away' doesn't necessarily mean that the wolves will kill her toNight?

03-23-2006, 11:21 PM	#672
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,737	Pouts __________________ grand return?........

03-23-2006, 11:28 PM	#676
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	I think Gurthang means if the ModGod decides that the wolves decide to kill tar-a

03-23-2006, 11:31 PM	#677
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,737	Huh? I totally didn't get that? __________________ grand return?........

03-23-2006, 11:34 PM	#679
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	What I was thinking was that since Tar-a had to leave anyway, the ModGod would just "write her in" so to speak, as dying at the wolves' hands; he would make the decision for them. I don't know if that's how things will go, though.