Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[Estelyn Telcontar]

OK, enough silliness - excuse that excursion, but I'm trying to think of something constructive to post and I can't. I simply have too little evidence to give reasons for suspecting anyone. I can give you a summary of my gut feeling, for whatever that's worth:

known innocent:
myself

presumed innocent for now:
phantom

possibly guilty:
Di

uncertain:
Ang
Eomer
Kath
LMP
Mith
Nogrod
Roa
SPM

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm slightly uneasy about this conspicuous *wink, wink* behaviour, most obviously demonstrated by the phantom in his secret exchange with SPM. It's also something Boro did yesterday with Diamond and I think someone else did it as well.

Fair enough, you don't want the wolves to discover your plans, but I'm getting pretty confused by all this secrecy.

Yes that is one of the things that annoys me ..I mean TP is not known for his modesty but the implication that only the Pan man is clever enough to be worth communicating with is a little insulting ... but what do I know ... having announced me strange for my vote and then dismissed as being too random to be a threat to the wolves ... and he has talked a lot about 50% more than anyone else last time I looked.... perhaps nature and the phantom both abhor a vacuum....

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

[Of course, in a village like this, there are no single-liner, one-post-a-day types. However, there are a number who kept a relatively low profile, and remained non-committal and relatively uncontroversial for much of the day. I have already identified those whom I think most exemplify this modus operandi: Elempi...

Take it for what it's worth, and I suppose I don't really care if you believe me or not, but as I warned the mod-goddess, I didn't figure on having much time for this the last two days, and am surprised to find myself having as much time as I do today. So I was rushed and participated as much as my busy schedule allowed Monday.

[Mithalwen]

Well I am not presuming TP innocent yet...

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Kath

lmp and Sauce and the spat between them are causing me some worry.

Why? It's so typical that I would think it could easily be ranked as just about the least worrisome thing in this game.

[Mithalwen]

Yes but we can't assume that it is the "two innocents tearing each other apart scenario" can we...

[Anguirel]

First things first - the traditional bookish riposte to the Lady -

I have neither the scholar's melancholy, which is emulation; nor the musician's, which is fantastical; nor the courtier's, which is proud; not the soldier's which is ambitious; nor the lawyer's, which is politic; nor the lady's, which is nice; nor the lover's, which is all these: but it is a melancholy of mine own, compounded of many simples, extracted from many objects, and indeed the sundry contemplation of my travels, which, by often rumination, wraps me in a most humorous sadness.

Now, my opinions on the various candidates.

Anguirel - From the point of view of anyone else, I think I look pretty suspicious. I am inconsistently talkative, and argue fiercely only to abruptly give up. I spend a day wallowing in mania and emerge sober and restrained. I'd vote for me were I not me.

Diamond18 - Insofar as I trust anyone here, it is Diamond. Not that I trust her to be innocent necessarily, but I trust her to be characteristic of Audreyaciousness. Her punctilious remembrance of grudges could serve the village as well as impair it; in attacking her attackers, she could yet strike gold. I am strongly opposed to lynching her.

Eomer of the Rohirrim - Where is the panache and the flair? Either overcommitted like me, or confused like me, or hesitant like me. I recognise the plight, but seeing it in a lupine past-master I still fear it. Though we have a tradition of werewolf-alliances, it's going to be hard keeping this one up. However, if Eomer was a wolf I would have expected him to attack the phantom, which he might have done, of course...

Estelyn Telcontar - I do have fears from this quarter, of course, but they are not overriding. Esty is self-controlled and a little acidic (I nearly said a little tart, but would not like anyone to think I were slandering her good name by accident). If she is a wolf she has early adapted to the mantle. I doubt she would have attacked morm last night; I would have expected her to eliminate a louder player, I think (although again the other wolf could have got lucky). I won't vote for her tonight.

Kath - Kath is not engaging in duels, and killing morm might be a double-bluff combined with pragmatism. She's winged home too often using such methods as she is at the moment. I may well vote for her.

littlemanpoet - very quiet and grudge-oriented, but willing to revert votes to put them to more active use at quite short notice. But his bluntness draws attention to him. If I have one major worry, it is that an innocent LMP should be attacking Sauce more vehemently...

Mithalwen - her Beth vote reassuringly Mithish, but I now know she is extremely good at giving that impression! In a subdued way she seems to be rather enjoying the chaos, but at least that shows frankness. Won't vote for her.

Nogrod - very muted, but he is busy elsewhere. Also Roa is not around much for him to spar with. the phantom is willing to clear him, which shows strong conviction as that spectre really does not like to dent his pride by being wrong. I am still a bit unnerved by Nogrod and think he could be lying low.

Roa_Aoife - warned us she'd appear at end and beginning - rather convenient lupine times. Has stepped into position as rugged individualist, defying phantom and therby getting reluctant respect from this young scholar. If only for that I'm tempted to keep her in and watch the blazes fly.

the phantom - Sigh. Innocent. But I confess to being really irritated by his tantalising arsenal of secret ploys and this irritation is bound to ultimately have an effect on my voting. I'd so love to see him lynched, but I keep muttering "greater good, greater good..."

The Saucepan Man - Standard text book Sauce vs LMP. Does he really think this or is he prosecuting it to fit the pattern? Turned out correct about the wolves, possibly too correct.

I am most likely to vote for Kath, Nogrod or Elempi, with the phantom hanging in as the "Anguirel possessed by rage and envy" candidate.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Yes but we can't assume that it is the "two innocents tearing each other apart scenario" can we...

Well, you'll just have to decide for yourself what it is, just like everything else about this wacko game.

Just for the sake of getting my head around things just a wee bit here:

Who I think is innocent (all gut feeling as there really, really isn't much else that can honestly be said by anybody with any certainty at all {Elempi glares at Espiem}):

Elempi (obviously)
the phantom
Espiem
Mithalwen

Who I'm not at all sure about:
Nogrod
Kath
Anguirel
Estelyn

Who I think may be a werewolf:

PreciousPrism18
Roa
Eomer

Eomer has been rather quiet and rather disengaging, and his posts nonchalant and disarming. I don't trust that in him.

Roa is capable of just about anything. I learned that in a certain DW game.

Diamond: she's due.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Esty

Perhaps she thought that would make me less calculable for the strategic experts...

So, in other words, Fea picked you because you'd make a great WW. Thanks for the info. I'll keep it in mind.

And Mith, you stupendously sexy innocent villager- how could you say I'm not making any sense? That's terribly cruel. But yes, I admit I'm being rather loud, and possibly annoying to some. But what can I say? I'm having fun. Lots of fun. Too much probably. That's what the problem is, I believe. Please forgive me. I'll try my best to be less happy in the future.

Originally Posted by Eomer

I'm slightly uneasy about this conspicuous *wink, wink* behaviour, most obviously demonstrated by the phantom in his secret exchange with SPM. It's also something Boro did yesterday with Diamond and I think someone else did it as well.

Fair enough, you don't want the wolves to discover your plans, but I'm getting pretty confused by all this secrecy.

Sorry, old boy, but that's the way it must be.

Sauce and I are testing each other out, you see. We're trying to guess at the ploys the other is using and aid them by keeping mum and yet tipping off the other person that we are aware of the strategy. Basically, we're wondering if we can work together, and taking steps towards building trust.

As SPM said earlier (yesterday I think), there are certain individuals that he always suspects at some point, and I am one of them. And I also suspect him in every game at some point (except the game in which I was the Seer and dreamed him on Night 1). And so, getting over this initial distrust will, for me anyway, greatly clear the air.

Originally Posted by lmp

I mean TP is not known for his modesty but the implication that only the Pan man is clever enough to be worth communicating with is a little insulting

That's a misrepresentation.

One of the main points I started trying to get across to SPM yesterday was a point that, I believe, only he, Boro88, morm, and possibly Fea could understand, for only they have been in particular past villages with me and/or discussed particular villages with me.

I didn't feel the need to convince Boro88. He and I got onto the same page rather quickly yesterday.

If morm had been alive today you can bet I would've tried to reach out to him as well as SPM.

In addition to familiarity, another reason I was willing to reach out to him in particular was because I thought I recognized a particular ploy he was using, which made me begin to trust him.

And then when he switched his vote away from me, I thought it was possible he had picked up on a hint that I gave about my innocence, which further spoke to his innocence. And then today he voiced recognition of a ploy that I have been using.

Don't assume I don't think you're "clever" enough, lmp. You're plenty clever. This situation has to do with circumstances, not "SPM is smarter than everyone so I'm just going to talk to him and no one else".

Let me ask, do you think you are getting any of the things that SPM and I have been trying to hint at? If so, then great! And please, if you are understanding my hints then get in on the action instead of feeling insulted that I didn't direct my hints at you.

[the phantom]

Sorry, I attributed that last quote to lmp rather than Mith. I guess I was reading too fast.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I don't want to go on 100% gut feeling at the moment; so I'll stick with around 90%.

The killer wolf thought that Mormegil was the rival wolf.

It thought this because Mormegil was playing similarly to itself. (Almost a quieter version of its normal self?)

So was anyone similar to Mormegil?

SPM: Seems normal enough. Lots of big words, attracting rivals. No.

TP: Dominating the village. No.

Diamond: Being overly silly and worrying. No.

Anguirel: Pretty standard, making me laugh in every post. Only scathing in humorous way. Possibly.

Roa: Usual detailed analysis. Probing as ever. Maybe.

Kath: Too quiet. Definitely maybe.

Mithalwen: Not cautious. No.

LMP: Cantankerous, like he says. A trick? Maybe.

Nogrod: Standard. Speaks sense. Got involved. Probably not.

Esty: Standard. Too playful. Worrying me. Not like Morm, though.

Eomer: The most similar to Mormegil out of everyone here.

My conclusion?

Hopefully I lost you ages ago and you didn't see me point at myself.

I'll vote for Kath today, though I began the post thinking I would be voting for Anguirel. My guess (not entirely without a couple of floorboards to stand on) is that Kath, trying to destroy her great rival, smote down Mormegil because his behaviour on Day One was safe, secure, not-too-involved, and not-too-suspicious. She saw her own strategy mirrored, and thought to herself "I shall feast on wolf-blood tonight, and so I shall have the village to myself without a nocturnal danger."

++KATH

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

littlemanpoet - very quiet and grudge-oriented, but willing to revert votes to put them to more active use at quite short notice. But his bluntness draws attention to him. If I have one major worry, it is that an innocent LMP should be attacking Sauce more vehemently...

Hmmmm..... I have tried to show some restraint, true. I can see why you would think it suspicious. Would you really like me to get downright cantankerous to relieve your suspicions? I think not; at least, not anymore, as it could be a triple bluff and be of no value. Ah well.

The Saucepan Man - Standard text book Sauce vs LMP. Does he really think this or is he prosecuting it to fit the pattern? Turned out correct about the wolves, possibly too correct.[/quote]I wistfully imagine what a game might be like in which Elempi and Espiem both play and there is not this immediate, inexplicable animosity. Ah well.

In case I am not back again today (I do have a life):

++ DIAMOND18

If nothing else, I shall be consistent.

[littlemanpoet]

Ack. The above reference to Espiem should be in quotes. Sorry for the lack of attribution.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Mithalwen - her Beth vote reassuringly Mithish, but I now know she is extremely good at giving that impression! In a subdued way she seems to be rather enjoying the chaos, but at least that shows frankness. Won't vote for her.

Chaos is my natural environment, so I think this game disconcerts me less sinceI knew it would be a magical mystery tour from the beginning. RL is so crazy this seems quite relaxing (and I must vote soonish for the ancient parent is still housebound and zimmer-framed and has been alone all day..). The fact this is so bizarre and that I am objectively probably the weakest player mean I have nothing to prove, no particular responsibility..it is quite liberating.. but I am fairly clueless...

However although I don't have the same confidence in the The Phantom and the Pan Man's innocence, I think it is quite likely that there is a wolf in his 3 likelies.

Diamond - was lucky yesterday, and new wolves are often nervously loud.
Eomer - was far too quiet for comfort.
Roa - well we all know that she is one of the players who would genuinely relish being a wolf in this scenario (morm is another which is why I am not assuming his innocence ... such a likely candidate to be Fea's choice, they have history of wolfing together superbly in my first game as mod and he is a rather less obvious choice that Roa) but too obvious? Too dangerous to discount ....

but this is instinct....

[Kath]

Oh Eomer, I only wish I really spoke like that! Ah well.

lmp, I see your point about you and Sauce arguing. I had quite forgotten you did that. However, that does not mean that one or the other of you is not a wolf, trying to make yourselves look normal.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Flair? Panache? Bah! Anguirel, thou shalt take off thy rose-tinted spectacles and witness for thyself the unspoken truth: the cardinal sin; the treacherous fall of even the brightest, even the happiest, and yea! even those deemed wise by all their fellows. This folly must be shackled, controlled, scrutinized and rejected by those who understand, in finality, at the end of things, that assumption itself is deadly, and a blight, and a plague, and a curse that spoils, and a beast that devours, a beast to be slain by the brave and the humble; and that one which especially concerns wit and and the joyful dance of words, and that one which especially concerns your honest friend, Eomer of the Rohirrim.

[Anguirel]

No; I will not cast away my physic but on those which are sick.

[the phantom]

The votes thus far-

SPM for lmp
Eomer for Kath
lmp for Di

Is that all? I was thinking there were more. If I missed any just let me know and I'll repost.

Note: I think it may prove to be telling one way or the other that Eomer has been all day today more than willing to assume that morm was killed because a WW thought that he was the other WW. Take from that what you will.

(also, I seriously doubt I'll be around at the end of the day)

[Anguirel]

It is painful to confess this, but I made use of a ploy recently, though no doubt one lacking the augustness of the ploytom's schemes.

I regret to say it, but I think Eomer does need my physic. He went straight for my unsophisticated Kath vote honeytrap. I didn't even have to put my vote into practice. It says a lot for the trust the noble wolf places in me.

++EOMER OF THE GAURWAITH

[Mithalwen]

Argh .. Eomer is persuasive but I am not certain of anything much .. not enough to join the Kath bandwagon.

I am very confused but one thing I am certain of is that Nogrod has been far too quiet here while being relatively active in another place where the lynching a forgone conclusion (Boro-dir is that a record?) ... he may be another who is selective about whou they deign to talk to and be waitng up to fight with Roa, but..... but .... sufficiently creeped out to vote
++Nogrod

and dree my weird..

[Mithalwen]

Oh bother ...... whom to trust......

argh no time I will let this rest

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Well, as I don't see through the ploys and don't know the secret handshake, I can't recognize all the helpful clues supposedly being distributed. I will have to vote on the only gut feeling I have toDay, based on her overly vociferous protestation of innocence:

Diamond

[Mithalwen]

--Nogrod

++Eomer

I will throw in my lot with my liege lord in another place...

[the phantom]

SPM for lmp
Eomer for Kath
lmp for Di
Ang for Eomer
Mith for Nogrod
Esty for Di (2)

Esty- you need to revote for Di. You forgot the "+ +".

And Mith- change the vote! Nogrod is as pure as the wind-driven snow!

[the phantom]

Ah, never mind, Mith. I see you changed your vote already.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Kath

lmp, I see your point about you and Sauce arguing. I had quite forgotten you did that. However, that does not mean that one or the other of you is not a wolf, trying to make yourselves look normal.

A very good point, and something that I got to thinking about on my way home from work.

I have a theory to propound. I am not sure I believe in it, but we surely do need an alternative to the current one that has gone THREE DAYS running without dissent. That must stop.

Fact: Feanor of the Peredhil has done her level best to set up a game that would allow for a maximum of ploy and gamesmanship as compared to logic and reasoning. The result is that if the werewolves can define "the story" according to their own interests, and get the rest of the players to accept and believe it, they increase their chances of winning this game.

Fact: There are two werewolves who at the start of this game did not know each other's identity.

Fact: Espiem floated his "how a werewolf might think" theory, which has by and large been accepted by the majority of players if the lack of opposition to it is any indication: "the wolves are in competition and are looking to kill each other".

Fact: the phantom has been doing his level best to dictate what this game is, and how it may best be understood. This is completely in character for an innocent Phantom, and is thus unlikely to arouse overmuch suspicion.

Fact: Espiem has gone into prosecutor mode, and picked out Elempi as his first target, which is not in the least unusual and therefore is least likely to arouse overmuch suspicion. This, by the way, is a reasonably effective way of getting one particular player who is known to be susceptible to defensiveness, on the defensive, and not thinking about what might really be going on. Well, maybe in another game, but not this time.

Fact: Espiem and the phantom have, as is usual for both of them, been loudest and so far, by and large, controlled the conversations.

Potential Remonstration: But this is the way Espiem and the phantom always behave.

Answer: All the better for them if they are the two werewolves.

I contest the assertion that the two werewolves are necessarily out to get each other. One werewolf may have decided to float this theory because it dawned on "him" early that this could well be the case, and would be convincing to the rest of the players. The werewolf who takes this initiative hopes and expects that the other werewolf is astute enough to notice that it may be the first werewolf who is floating these notions, and catches on, through further careful observation, that this first is indeed the other werewolf. Thus, by sheer amount of posting and control, as well as coded markers within posts, indicating what each other is doing, these two have come to a "read between the lines" understanding of who each other is, and proceed to play the game as hard as they can, trying to control it as much as they can, and have thus struck an alliance that actually runs counter to the prevailing "story" as to what's really going on.

I for one consider SPM and the phantom to be supremely capable of such a ploy and counterploy set-up, especially if the two werewolves are looking out for each other. Remember, Fea has stated that if one werewolf wins, both werewolves are considered to have won. So all the talk about one werewolf defeating the other is smoke and mirrors.

Now, everybody but SPM and the phantom, please tell me if you see any holes in my theory.

SPM & the phantom, please be so kind as to defend yourselves.

Finally, it's about time someone besides those two provided an alternative "story" to this game, and I will go so far as to congratulate myself. Phantom, you're not the only arrogant man on this board.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Oops! Sorry about that voting mistake - it's getting late, I guess...

++Diamond

[the phantom]

lmp- I really truly wish you had not made that last post.

So all the talk about one werewolf defeating the other is smoke and mirrors.

Yes. You're right. Completely right, as far as I am concerned. I can't speak for SPM, but I recognized his "the WWs are in competition" statement as a ploy yesterday and have been using it as a ploy myself.

BUT... BUT.... NOT as a WWish ploy, but rather as an anti-WW ploy.

You see, one reason I was so concerned with feeling SPM out was so I could decide whether he was a WW doing a ploy or a villager doing a ploy. It can work both ways you see. You've already explained how it can be a WW ploy, but did you not think of the flip side?

As an innocent, it is to your advantage to try to establish as a fact that the WWs would want to kill each other, correct?

Don't you see? I came out in support of the "WWs in competition" theory in an effort to get the WWs to gun for each other. I didn't actually believe it for a second. If I myself was a WW NO WAY would I gun for my brother/sister.

As I said, I cannot speak for sure about SPM's intentions, but if you look back at post #182, it makes my innocent intentions clear.

Indeed. I totally, completely, and fully agree that if an individual WW wishes to claim victory for himself/herself it is necessary to compete with each other as well as the village, for if it comes down to himself/herself and a villager victory is assured, but if the village is reduced to himself/herself and the other WW, he/she might not survive, and being the only survivor is without a doubt the supreme honor that everyone in this village is vying for.

PS SPM- am I doing well today? Just wink if you think you get what I'm saying.

As you can clearly see, I am latching onto what I thought was his ploy full force and at the end I basically ask him if I had caught on and was doing it right.

But now that you've spoken up, the ploy is, without a doubt, worthless.

Oh, well.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

I for one consider SPM and the phantom to be supremely capable of such a ploy and counterploy set-up, especially if the two werewolves are looking out for each other. Remember, Fea has stated that if one werewolf wins, both werewolves are considered to have won. So all the talk about one werewolf defeating the other is smoke and mirrors.

I would like to remind ourselves of the widely-known fact that the villagers come forwards with much more imaginative ploys than the wolves normally do execute. Also the wolves come up with much more sophisticated schemes some people might be at to cast suspicion on innocents.

This surely seems not to be a "normal game" and Spm & tp might be ones to come up with pretty imaginative stuff. But still I'm afraid lmp is overthinking it here.

Also, thus far I have an impression that those two are making actively the most sense in here even though they do not share all the points. That doesn't mean they are not wolves. Not the least. The best wolves speak sense and are thence trusted. But this far I wouldn't wish to lynch them (even though the magnitude of their posting makes the reading of this thread pretty laborous...). Naming someone innocent at this point I would call a bit hasty, but not to be lynched might do well with me, now.

The latter point I think is also more complicated than lmp considers it to be. Surely the existence of a rival wolf will interfere with any plans the other wolf would like to execute. That fits beautifully with the general dynamics of this game where all rational approaches are discouraged and partly barred. So the other one will hinder her/him and should be removed. The killed wolf has been granted bragging rights but we all would know who was it that won in the end.

[the phantom]

The voting (I think) thus far-

SPM for lmp (1)
Eomer for Kath (1)
lmp for Di (1)
Ang for Eomer (1)
Mith for Nogrod (1)
Esty for Di (2)
Mith take back Nogrod (0)
Mith for Eomer (2)

[the phantom]

In post #151 I said this-

Roa, m'dear, it pains me to say it but both yesterday and today you fell head first into a trap of mine. You see, one of your complaints about my behavior was something that I was actually doing purposefully as a ploy, and I was betting that WWs would have a certain reaction to it. Not that I'm saying I'm sure you're a WW. Depending on your personality, it's possible my trap misfired. I'm not going to start gunning for you yet, but I will watch to see if you continue to travel down the path. And yes, I'll eventually explain what this "trap" is that I'm speaking of (later today), and when I do you can tell me what you think of it and by all means vote to lynch me if you don't like my explanation, but I feel the need to leave it alone just for a few hours.

All right. I've let the bait dangle long enough. I will now reveal what my "trap" was.

My whole attitude about "strategy is useless" and "a victory in this game just means your lucky" was a ploy. I was trying to tick off the WWs- to injure their pride to the point that they stepped forward. You see, I was hoping they'd feel supremely insulted by the notion that if they win it wouldn't really mean anything. I was trying to poison their victory for them. Then I sat back and watched to see if anyone came out strong against my statements (acted insulted by them) and tried to argue that the village is actually very powerful and that there is a lot of strategy involved and that a WW victory would be very meaningful.

And both yesterday and today, Roa fit this behavior somewhat. She admitted to being "irked" by my statements. Her main comments are in post #114 and post #149.

But as I said earlier, it's completely possible that my trap misfired and Roa is innocent. What do you think? Is there anyone besides Roa who had an interesting reaction to my "pessimism"?

And while we're on the subject, this is another reason why I don't want to lynch SPM. He appears to have caught onto this ploy and wisely kept his mouth shut about it. From post #157-

Originally Posted by SPM

and your “pessimism” aside (and I can understand what you were trying to achieve here)

Oh, and there was also a secondary reason for my pessimism. By stating that my talents were useless in this sort of village and such, I was also hoping the WWs would not see me as any threat and thus spare me.

Convenient, eh? Two ploys for the price of one.

[Nogrod]

I still believe that at least one of our wolves has been moderately careful so far. Anyhow, as usual the loudmouths are more prone to make mistakes or slip in the middle of their huge posting one Day or another and therefore they are easier to catch than the more careful ones who concentrate on not leaving tracks.

We have no one-liners here, thank the supreme Moddes for that. But still there are different styles of play and different amount of notice different people receive. A wise wolf would take that into account. That does not say that there isn't a loud wolf around. It's more likely that there is one.

But as we can only pursue limited number of candidates at a time as our personal time is limited, I'm going to look at those who have not aroused so much attention so far toDay (well, the next hour or so after which I have to turn into bed). I've always approoved a bit more involved villagers than reserved and too careful ones. With the first you can argue and find points from, but the latter just skip under the radar and make the endgame painstaking in a not-fun sense (at worst pure guessing)...

Also I think it's just fair to reward those who invest time and effort to the game (at least when you have to more guess than reason your votes). I myself have not been the best example of that involvement this far but my RL has been overtly hectic (the other game has not been so time-consuming in the end). From toMorrow onwards I will be having considerably more time to invest in here, so if I'm among living still then, I will surely get more involved.

(nb. this last one here just because a couple of people have thought me oddly behaving or/and suspicious as I have been so quiet and not-involved)

[Anguirel]

Don't lynch Diamond.

Eomer, if I have wronged you, I am sorry, and if not, I am sorrier for your lamentable descent into the lupine maelstrom.

Good night.

[Nogrod]

I just couldn't resist commenting on tp's last post.

tp, you seem to be (again) on the loose with all these ploys... You had two in your last post "confessed" and your insistence on my innocence can't be interpreted as anything else than one more. Although I'm not sure what you would like to consider as a positive or negative comfirmation on behalf of my reaction to that...

These ploys of yours surely are entertaining and at their best they can produce results. I'm the last one to condemn good ploys as such. But aren't they also - with these quantities - a nice veil to let you say this and that, run around to your enjoyment and comfort everyone that you are safe and sane behind the mask, just thinking about the best of the village? I mean sometimes it looks that you are flip-flopping more than Lommy at her best. Wouldn't an intelligent wolf do just that? Gain trust with the general air of her/his effort so that people do not pay heed to the things s/he says even thoug they may every once in a while (when s/he succeeds) result in lynching of the innocents? And any misfired cases could always be explained away as mere ploys... I know you do this ploy-stuff when you're innocent but that wouldn't hinder you for doing them as a baddie too.

[the phantom]

I don't have time to say much. I'm leaving and will be gone the rest of the day.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

and your insistence on my innocence can't be interpreted as anything else than one more

Nope. I just happen to think you are innocent.

As to the rest of your post, all you are basically saying is that if I were a WW I might act like I am acting now, and that if I am innocent I would also act like I am acting now. My only response to that is "yes", as it is simply a statement of fact and nothing more.

Since I must vote now I'm just going to follow Ang (who is obviously innocent) and vote for-
++Eomer of the Rohirrim

If new evidence arises that makes him look innocent, then by all means cancel out your votes for him, but don't expect me to, for I will not be present for the rest of the evening.

Good luck.

[The Saucepan Man]

I do not recommend lynching Esty today. Her "Werewolf in the style of BD forums/for a/forumdirrim/forum-tee-diddle-dum" was far too amusing to let her go just yet.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Fair enough, you don't want the wolves to discover your plans, but I'm getting pretty confused by all this secrecy.

Me too. I have no idea what the phantom is on about most of the time. I’m mainly just humouring him.

And yet ...

Originally Posted by Esty

For some strange reason I can't define, I still trust the phantom. If he really is a WW, he's a good one!

If he were a Wolf, he would undoubtedly be a good one, and this game in particular would be a dream for him. However, I am increasingly of the view that he is not a Wolf. I still have this residual fear that I am being taken for a fool in this matter, but I’m going to go with my instinct on this one. For now, at least.

Originally Posted by Noggie

I know you do this ploy-stuff when you're innocent but that wouldn't hinder you for doing them as a baddie too.

That is undoubtedly true, but I can (and did) see the sense in what he was trying to do. I didn't catch on to his "strategy is useless and a Wolfish win will be based on pure luck alone" ploy exactly, but I certainly recognised it as an attempt to elicit a reaction. There may well be something in Roa's reaction to it. That said, her reaction was pretty typical for her, whether guilty or innocent. Worth bearing in mind, though.

Originally Posted by Mith

I am very confused but one thing I am certain of is that Nogrod has been far too quiet here while being relatively active in another place

I suspect that if Noggie were a Wolf, he would have been much more active here.

Originally Posted by Elempi

Eomer has been rather quiet and rather disengaging, and his posts nonchalant and disarming. I don't trust that in him.

Quite the most sensible thing that you have said all game. I don’t trust him either.

Eomer’s analysis of morm’s death and his implication thereby of Kath does make some kind of sense. But, since morm was such an obvious Wolf-kill, I suspect he may be reading too much into it, quite possibly deliberately so. And now Ang tells us that it was prompted by his "honey trap". Hmm, I rather think that Eomer’s idea (whether genuine or false) had been simmering rather longer than you allow for it, Ang. That said, the fact that he put forward this rather unnecessarily elaborate theory does further arouse my suspicions of him. Overly elaborate theories always arouse my suspicions of those who put them forward.

Which brings me to Elempi ...

Originally Posted by Kath

lmp and Sauce and the spat between them are causing me some worry.

Well, it’s not really a spat. I find him suspicious and he finds it tiresome that I should find him suspicious as it is so passé. I find it rather tiresome too, in fact, but suspicions are stubborn blighters once aroused.

Originally Posted by Mith

Yes but we can't assume that it is the "two innocents tearing each other apart scenario" can we...

It wouldn’t surpise me. I am a veteran of such futile struggles. And yet …

Originally Posted by Ang

If I have one major worry, it is that an innocent LMP should be attacking Sauce more vehemently...

That worries me too.

Originally Posted by Elempi

SPM & the phantom, please be so kind as to defend yourselves.

My dear Elempi, your theory is perfectly plausible. Except for one thing. If the phantom and I were both Wolves, and had identified each other as such, then there is no way that either one of us would wish to see the other outlast him, bragging rights or no bragging rights.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Don't you see? I came out in support of the "WWs in competition" theory in an effort to get the WWs to gun for each other. I didn't actually believe it for a second. If I myself was a WW NO WAY would I gun for my brother/sister.

As I said, I cannot speak for sure about SPM's intentions, but if you look back at post #182, it makes my innocent intentions clear.

Well, I can speak for my intentions. My original idea about the Wolves being in competition was genuine, as I did believe that to be the case at the time. I still do, to an extent, given what we have been told since. But I did also have the intention of trying to get the Wolves at each other’s throats, since that could only be to the village’s advantage.

The fact that the phantom picked up on this and supported it, even though he did not fully agree with it himself, only reinforces my view of his likely innocence.

Originally Posted by the phantom

But now that you've spoken up, the ploy is, without a doubt, worthless.

Not as far as I am concerned. I still firmly believe that both of the Wolves wish to win this thing as the surviving Wolf (and, if they do not, they should). As long as the other Wolf is around, that doubles their chances of being killed (by night as well as by day) and potentially interferes with their choice of nightly kill.

I am rather inclined to view that finely wrought but (ultimately) implausible and potentially damaging theory of yours as a further sign in your guilt, Elempi.

Any more ploys I should be looking out for, phantom, or are you all ployed out for now?

[Nogrod]

I have no time to make an all around -scan here so I'll stick to those still alive and who received no votes on Day1 (by my "the careful wolf on Day1" suspicion)

Eomer of the Rohirrim
Estelyn Telcontar
Kath
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Roa_Aoife

On the following I will not include any judgements of myself as that is the task of you others.

On Day1 / basic points
Of these the safest game was played to my eye by Eomer, Estelyn and Kath. To my opinion they would make excellent Fea-choises for a wolf too – as would many others, that admitted.

Mith’s vote for Bb was a risky one, maybe too risky for a wolf (even if it didn’t result in any actual votes in the end). I will exclude her from this notion onwards.

Roa played somewhat as she normally does. That might be interpreted “safe” in a way, but she at least threw her neck in and got involved. And tp: Roa is a firm believer in reason and arguments, just like you seem to be – and as I am. Unfortunately we are put in the test in this game as the room has been narrowed quite considerably.

If we add to this the voting, I think that the wolves would not like to spread the vote in the last moments / would be inclined to cast early votes. But basically, if anyone else than them is gaining votes a wolf would like to add gathering votes to that one / those ones. The wolf acts alone now and the situation differs a lot from a normal game: all the usual “bandwaggoning principles” don’t hold here. It’s harder for us to read and thence easier for the wolves to join as they do not need to care about any connections as there are no (we can’t speculate whether X knew what was the status of Y as no one here knows but her/himself and if the lynching of another wolf might be a positive thing for the other - so everything goes for the wolves as long as it's not themselves).

So of those possibly not-notified, it can be gathered:
Eomer gave an easy and early vote for lmp.
Kath went to give tp his third vote, explanation: random but biased.
Estelyn brought Boro up to two “based on several next-to-nothings”.
Roa spread the vote giving Di her first for over-defenciveness.

Paying heed to my theory about the wolves preferred voting style, that would make Eomer, Kath and Estelyn look the most suspicious ones.

On Day2
Eomer has mostly sticked with making arguments that frame himself, but also made a reasoned list of people based on a principle, having a row of sorts - pretty tongue in cheek for his part - with Ang.
Kath has been quiet and defended her quietness with the reason that she will only gear up on Day3-4. Very convenient for a wolf if we should all wait.
Estelyn: “Perhaps she (Fea) thought that (I, Estelyn) would make me less calculable for the strategic experts...” after that lots of fun.
Roa continued with typical Roaishness. As on Day one. No clear read-outs there. She would act the same anyhow. I'm the last one to come forwards with open trust on her but really that does not ring any alarm-bells with me either. And about what both tp and Spm have been suggesting, she might be strict with her honour but in any case would defend logical argumentation and grounded votes over anything even suggesting randomness, and do it fiercely. Trust me, I've played with her a several times.

Eomer made again an early vote (decent guy, goes to bed early...) for Kath in concerto with his mirror-theory about Morm's death.
Esty brought Di to two.

To conclude:
- Roa I see as playing herself. That is both a good sign and a worrying sign. You just don't know about her. Not my vote toDay, anyway.
- Esty, if played only in one game so far, I will truly look at her with not a lynch in mind toDay, even though I must agree with the few that she would make a first-class Fea-pick and her actions might be easily seen as a careful wolf's deeds.
- Eomer has been a bit weird but then again he has been making some actual points and sticked with them toDay. Nevertheless much more tame and easy that I would have expected. Self-condemning moves might also be pure Eomer(-wolf).
- Kath has been so reserved. As she so often is in the beginning of the game. But I have seen her conquer with that style before, just from too near...

I will go for

++ Kath

She has a self-defending armour of not being of any use in the first Days. And she seems to stick with it. It might be honest, but I have seen her use it to her advantage too. It is no good if some people are let to live Day after Day just because they will be possible assets later - thence giving them peace over the maddness of the first Days also when they are baddies. Also her vote on Day1 followed the line I thought the wolves might wish to do.

tp, I know your point about just stating the fact (it might be or not) truly applies here too (as with yourself). But with this little to go for with anyone in these time-limits I would rather not see a sneaky wolf under radar.

I'm deeply conscious that I'm also giving a second vote to someone toDay... But that is the best I can come up with at this moment. I need to sleep now.

[Kath]

Nogrod, I don't dare to proclaim that I will become useful in later Days, just that I'm more likely to be helpful then.

I must say I do like lmp's theory that the phantom and Sauce are our two wolves. I can quite see Fea coming up with that little scenario, confident that both of them can talk their way out of anything and gaining a huge amount of amusement as they do just that.

I think I'm having a lazy day, more inclined to go with the thoughts of others than my own. Still, there is that niggling feeling that phantom is innocent. So, with apologies for my inability to take this seriously right now and a half-hearted promise to do better in future:

++ESTY

For spamming the thread.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Mith

Roa - well we all know that she is one of the players who would genuinely relish being a wolf in this scenario

It's absolutely true. I was really hoping to be a wolf in this village, and I genuinely thought that's Fea invited me in the first place, since that pretty much the only way I've distinguished myself at all in werewolf. (Let's face it, as an innocent I'm mediocre at best.) I love being on the evil side, and I'm happy to get it more often than most. As to whether I am or not, well, I could go on about how Fea didn't choose me, but it would be silly and fruitless. Besides, you'd only have my word to go on, and nobody trusts me anyways. (See above note about being generally evil.)

As to my "convenient" schedule, I'm "conveniently" either sleeping or at work during almost the entire day. I'm a pre-school teacher. I have no computer and even if I did, I couldn't take my eyes off my kids long enough to do anything with it. So, the beginning and the end are the only times of Day which I can be around. And if you suggest I lose sleep to play, well, I dare you to handle a room of 9 one year olds by yourself with no sleep. Really, it's the children who suffer...

Also, bah to people and their traps. BAH, I say! If you're intentionally acting in a suspicious manner to catch a wolf, why shouldn't an innocent also find the behavior suspicious and label you a wolf?

Also, bah! to phantom and his trap. Anyone who's played a game with me will know that my first responses are to people who sit around and say "Day one is so useless, we have nothing to go on, oh woe is me for I simply can't just look at what people are saying to figure out if they're condradicting themselves, or going along with the flow, or anything else that's suspicion warranting, blah, blah, blah." It's what I do. Innocent or wolf, these poeple just irritate me. Anyone who claims there's no point to analysis has always found me as an ardent opponnent to that claim. So your trap misfired and caught a hot headed, argumentative, know-it-all. almost as bad as a wolf, but not quite.

Also, LPM's point about phantom and SPM being possible joint werewolves who have discovered each other, as it were, is something that had occured to me myself as I read further through the day. (And it gave me the willies.)

Certainly, it's a possibilty, but I wouldn't say it's as end all as he makes it sound. I can well understand where he's coming from. However, one hole I poke in the "the werewolves are definitely not gunning for each other" theory, is this- as a werewolf, I've never had a problem sacrificing my teammates. I know multiple people here who have done the same thing. Knowing full well who my teammates are, I go after them if they're suspicious, and I leave them alone if they aren't. It's much easier for a wolf in this game to do the same thing, when they can just focus on finding suspicious behavior and exploiting it, not caring if they lynch their comrade or not. They don't even have to pretend that they're really figuring it out for themselves and didn't know any better all along. My reaction to SPM's theory was a "Well, duh, why not?"

I have more analysis to do, but I doibt I'll get through them by the end of the Day. I will do my best, though. And in case I don't return:

++Diamond18

Because of what I've already posted, and because I have nothing better (yet).

[Roa_Aoife]

And I don't like your hair.