Game Thread: Werewolf- this time it's real!

[Isabellkya]

I myself, did not expect Kuru to be lynched yesterDay.
And to be blatantly honest. Good to have you here for one more Day, but why are people turning to him like the godfather? He may be a known innocent, but in what way does that make him omniscient and completely infallible?

My take on the Night kills, is that they are going after the most Ordo looking people. If that is correct, then this next night - they should/would probably go after a different kind of kill. Since all three have to kill before one does twice, and the Vampire can not turn anyone.

From yesterDay, it seemed Gwath was more going to vote for Kuru because of the thing between Kuru and Kent about his newbieness. Rather than because he wanted to save Nog.


Just my three cents for the moment.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

From yesterDay, it seemed Gwath was more going to vote for Kuru because of the thing between Kuru and Kent about his newbieness. Rather than because he wanted to save Nog.

Yeah, I did think Kuru was kind of weird about that.

[Brinniel]

Hmm...first Aganzir and now Firefoot. Those are surprising choices. I wonder what is the wolves' motivation behind this. Are they seeking the seer? Are they just random kills? Or is there some other reason? I should probably take a look at Firefoot's posts from yesterDay and see if there are any clues; I always find it quite difficult to figure out the reason behind a kill.

I think the voting yesterDay was rather disastrous. It seems some players voted for others with such confidence that they were convinced that their suspect was evil. I don't know about the rest of you, but while I do start to figure out my suspects by Day 2, I'm rarely completely convinced of someone's guilt that early on. It's typical to have some feuding players at each other's throats, but there seemed to be a lot of people especially bloodthirsty. There were several on the lynching line, so even those who voted for self-preservation had plenty to choose from, so I can hardly see that being used as an excuse.

Also, there was a ridiculous amount of voting in the final minutes...I know I'm guilty of that as well. Shame on me; I should slap myself for not voting earlier as I said I would. I admit I tried, but I sat on my vote post for about twenty minutes as I kept changing my mind and retyping my vote between Firefoot and Sally. I'm so indecisive.

Originally Posted by Izzy

And to be blatantly honest. Good to have you here for one more Day, but why are people turning to him like the godfather? He may be a known innocent, but in what way does that make him omniscient and completely infallible?

Well obviously we shouldn't treat Kuru like a god (or the godfather) and follow his every word. You're right; just because he's innocent doesn't mean he can't be wrong. But at least we know now we can trust his judgment and for that reason I'd be more likely to take his words into account than an unknown player.

[Nogrod]

Here's the current player-list with the number of bonus-votes left.

Brinniel (10)
Fea (6)
Formendacil (10)
Green (10)
Gwath (10)
Izzy (8)
Kent (5)
Kuruharan (6)
Lari (10)
Nilp (7)
Nogrod (5)
Sally (10)
Shasta (10)

Those players that are bolded probably include the three baddies, Grima and three innocents in danger to die on the oncoming Nights.

We need to get a baddie toDay - or at least force them to use their votes.

First thing towards that direction is to concentrate our search on those bolded. That's at least my plan for toDay.

Why is this such an urgent thing to do? We're now on 10-3 but as Kuru is here only for this Day the numbers will be 7-3 toMorrow if we miss toDay (unless Finrod succeeds of course).

Now Thuringwethil can kill someone who still has ten votes on the Night to come and suck the votes to herself giving her twenty extra votes toMorrow. The wolves - having 10 extra each - add up another twenty. Grima possibly having ten extra as well, s/he can just wait and see how the baddies start voting and join the fray. They have together 50 extra votes! That reads fifty! 50!

And those 50 votes are available for them to use against the remaining maximum votes of six innocents - the total number of our votes being 37 at the moment - not counting the possible extras we need to use already toDay...

So toMorrow they lynch whomever they wish and kill one the next Night leading us into 5-3 on Day5 and openly defeat us under the bright sunlight. (Yeah, they too may need to use some of their extra-votes toMorrow to drive the lynch but even one of us ordos not voting in line with others eases their task considerably)

But that's why they would love to keep their full bonus-vote stack yet toDay. And that's why we need to either empty their pockets or lynch one of them toDay.

Well if one of the baddies has already used a few of her/his bonus votes? That's perfectly possible but I wouldn't count on that as a common guideline, at least toDay. And I could bet quite a lot that at least two of them are still fully armed - I'm afraid they all are - so let's dig them out.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Also, there was a ridiculous amount of voting in the final minutes...I know I'm guilty of that as well. Shame on me; I should slap myself for not voting earlier as I said I would. I admit I tried, but I sat on my vote post for about twenty minutes as I kept changing my mind and retyping my vote between Firefoot and Sally. I'm so indecisive.

You're not indecisive darling, you're evil.

But to be honest you lead my suspicion-list to the point I'm almost confident about your guilt. Your defence of your voting-action helped me a lot.

Those twenty minutes "started" from the situation where I had six votes and Form, Greenie & Kent had one each. You thought then whether to give one vote to Firefoot or Sally. Okay.

About fifteen minutes before the deadline Kuru gets six votes (Me 7, Kuru 6, the rest one each). You continue changing your mind and retyping your vote, whether to give it to Firefoot or Sally...

Two minutes / one minute before DL Sally gets three votes, Kent receives six and Kuru three more... And you continue on thinking whether Firefoot or Sally is worth your one vote to vote at the last minute?

Give me a break Brinn...

I have seen this attitude before. It's wolf-behaviour. It's disinterested. You had no intention whatsoever to influence the outcome of the voting because - well, Kuru or me, we both fitted you. You casted the safest vote possible in that situation - and if you had to ponder something about your vote it was probably about which one would look more innocent...

But the real point is: you were not interested in the outcome of the voting. During the last twenty minutes you didn't post even once to take part in the discussion. Why? Because it was such a momentous task to decide whether to give one vote to Firefoot or Sally - not to talk about all that retyping-effort...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Firefoot analysis (editor's comment are underlined and emphasised):

DAY 1
198

Says bonus votes should be saved as a trump card. Proposes that Agan, Shasta, and Nilp are the three wolves.

223

Responds to Agan's 216 (re the post title thing of Kuru). Adds a comment about Kuru using in his posts. But both 'seems rather innocuous' to her.

Agrees with Kent about wolves having 'a canned response to the bonus votes question', but issues a caveat about how to determine such a canned response.

255

Says that she's afraid the ones being suspected are the most talkative ones. Wonders about Agan using a bonus vote on Kuru, and further wonders if he's[sic] the seer. Votes for Kuru to test it out.

One of the posts that put her on the suspicion list of some people, myself included.

257

She thanks me for being kindhearted.

DAY 2

290

Defends her pointing out Agan as a seer (albeit in strangely-worded fashion). Wonders if Kuru is a wolf, or if Agan was being a liability to the evil side, lack of gift notwithstanding. In another paragraph, she thinks Agan's use of a bonus vote made her look like a seer.

Her other suspicious post.

325

Doesn't find anyone suspicious. However, if Kuru turns out to be a wolf, Izzy and Brinn would look suspicious.

'If' was emphasised, and she added the phrase 'but that's a big if' at the end, indicating, perhaps, that she did not suspect Kuru much at this point.

329

Wonders about Nog's DAY 1 vote (something that Izzy questioned about, too, but Nog brushed it off.) Thought that Kuru was just a safe vote for Nog and that the real target was Nienna. Calls his voting sloppy.

Comments on Nog's 313 (a comment on Kuru's 311, where he thought Kuru's explanation of the NIGHT kill seemed to be 'a post trying to convince us he's no baddie'.) She said that Nog wasn't suspicious of Kuru yesterday, and that Nog's analysis of the possibility of Kuru's wolvishness wasn't forthcoming.

Indicates her suspicion of Nogrod, but holds it back by saying that her suspicion comes from his being talkative. Comments on Kent's obsession with his newbie status.

Perhaps the post that killed her, if we go with the assumption that the Evil Three are hunting Lúthien . . .

395

Defends her seer comment. Says that it would be sloppy to point out a seer and kill her the next NIGHT. Votes for Nog.

Later Nogrod comments on this post (399), where she deemed Firefoot 'innocentish' . . .

Conclusions:

• She suspected Shasta and Nilp on early DAY 1, and Nog (mildly) on DAY 2.
• Everyone she interacted with on DAY 1 was proven innocent--save Kent (and Nilp, if you could call 257 'interaction.')
• She was suspicious on DAY 2 due to her seer comment.
• She withdrew her suspicion of Kuru DAY 2.
• Her comments on Kent's newbie status revived a supposedly dead issue and caused a flare-up between Kuru and Kent.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But the real point is: you were not interested in the outcome of the voting. During the last twenty minutes you didn't post even once to take part in the discussion. Why? Because it was such a momentous task to decide whether to give one vote to Firefoot or Sally - not to talk about all that retyping-effort...

So you're saying I should've been one to make a decisive vote for a second time and it was wrong of me not to? I was given a lot of crap yesterDay for giving the decisive vote to someone I didn't suspect much...I still hold to that Day One vote because I wanted to give Kuru a second Day. But as I stated in an earlier post, I did not care for any of the choices on the lynching block nor did I particularly care to save anyone on it, so why should I vote for one of them if I didn't have a reason to? My main suspects were Sally and Firefoot and I stuck by those suspicions. And no I didn't give Sally any of my bonus votes because while I suspect her, I wasn't convinced she was guilty and since we do only have ten bonus votes, my opinion is that you should only used them when you're convinced you've found a wolf. Sorry, but it just really irritates me to hear that I'm "disinterested" because I didn't make a decisive vote. My vote may have not been a critical one but neither was it a complete throwaway. I x-posted with several votes in those last two minutes, so I really had no idea what the outcome would be. My vote may have only counted as one but it still made a difference since Sally did almost get lynched. Maybe I should call you the safe voter for giving Sally five votes at the very end which was just one shy of sealing her fate. Since you're all about decisive voting, why not add on one more bonus vote and get her lynched?

While I agree that some of the baddies are surely saving up their votes, I really don't like the way you're implying that everyone who hasn't used a bonus vote is automatically suspicious. More than half the players haven't used their bonus votes and I don't think we're wrong in choosing so. Now if all of the innocents used their votes early and all of the baddies saved their's, that would be a very stupid move for both sides. It's only the beginning of the third Day and I'm not gonna just throw out half my bonus votes this early just to prove to you that I'm innocent...and I do find it weird that you suggest that all the innocents use their bonus votes early. Now if we did that, of course the baddies will have the upper hand. It seems like a clever bluff for a baddie to use their bonus votes and then go after everyone who didn't to make yourself look good, because indeed the most obvious strategy for the wolves is for all of them to save their votes. But do you really think that the wolves will choose the most obvious strategy? I think not.

I may use some bonus votes toDay or I may not. It depends on my suspicions. If I don't have anyone I feel strongly enough against (and sometimes I don't have any strong suspects), I won't dump my bonus votes on them. Honestly I'm not the most accurate voter, so I do want to be careful who I use them on because I'd feel quite regretful if I ended up getting an innocent lynched with my bonus votes. Seeing how messy yesterDay got, perhaps more players should do the same.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

An alternate explanation to the NIGHT kill has already been put forward by Form yesterDAY:

Originally Posted by Formendacil

One hugely important thing that might be involved is that whoever the wolves select as their nighttime kill has the potential, if an ordo, to become the new member of their pack, rather than supper. Granted, it's a one-in-six chance, but at this point in the game, when perhaps none of them are under suspicion, they picked a supper victim who would have the greatest chance of NOT being identified as a potential victim if we all woke up today, and no one was dead.

To put it in other words, perhaps the wolves decided that, if Aganzir was converted to their side, and we woke up today with no one missing from our midst, she'd be the last one we'd look for as a converted new wolf, simply because she had been so conspicuous yesterday, and thus the sort of noisy person that wolves leave around to keep the heat off themselves.

Of course this doesn't detract from other explanations (like us barking up the totally wrong trees!)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Having pressed the 'Submit' button accidentally on the abovementioned post (was absent-minded and thought I was previewing it), I forgot to tack on the statement:

So we should probably look at the ones that escape our attention at this moment (i.e. the quiet ones.) Consulting the post counts:

Under 10: Lari, Green.
Under 20: Sally, Shasta, Brinn.
Under 30: Nilp, Izzy, Gwath.

(I'm not saying that they're all being quiet as a tactic, I acknowledge the existence of RL issues, but I remember winning a game where I used my RL-enforced quietness to my advantage--of course, getting the seer right and using that to my advantage helped, too. )

[Isabellkya]

There are also the cases of the one-third chances. As well as the two/three nights in a row, someone can be turned. The three could all be males, looking to get rid of the females. Or could all be females, looking to get rid of fellow females to be left with a village of males. Or any reason for that matter.

Do those posts counts include the meet-and greet portion, Nilp?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Yes, unfortunately, they do. I'll do a proper count of game-related posts then.

[Isabellkya]

I think this is what it should look like without the negative day posts:

32 - Nog
31 - Form
30 - Kent
22 - Kuru
22 - Gwath
21 - Nilp
21 - Izzy
17 - Brin
16 - Fea
12 - Sally
08 - Greenie
06 - Shasta
05 - Lari

X'd with Nilp. Ahh, I see.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

You posted just as I finished counting. Looks just about right.

So, adding a personal slant to things (like actual things said in posts, lingering impressions on my mind or lack thereof, etc.), my list of people to watch out for has:

Lari
Shasta
Green
Sally
Fea
Izzy
Gwath

Plus my outstanding suspicion of Kent and Brinn . . . wow, that's more than two-thirds of the village!

At least I'm convinced of Nogrod's innocence (let's see if some will take a hint ) and we have a known innocent in Kuruharan.

Anyone wants to do a post analysis of Lari, Shasta, or Green? Shouldn't be do hard. I'll do Sally.

[Kent2010]

I'm not going to apologize to you Kuru, I think you brought it upon yourself, glad you are innocent, but your suspicions against me are wrong and I thought you were blatantly exaggerating it. That's all, I'll be back after work.

[Kent2010]

P.S. one more thing...

I'd like to know Gwath why you decided to chime in at the end between Kuru and myself? I appreciated it at the time, but now with not voting it looks like a move to egg the situation forward and looks like an oppurtunistic wolf defending an innocent.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Sally analysis (editor's comment are underlined and emphasised):

DAY 1
233

Calls us slackers and whips us all into shape. Says she will listen to what has been said before deciding who to vote against.

250

Responds to various posts, mostly banter, but comments on the various issues. Says that she'll keep an eye on those hoarding their bonus votes for the endgame. Also, comments on the Gríma discussion, saying that looking for him is about as effective as looking for Pippin. Makes the following comment comment on wolf activity:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

True that wolves make an effort to be more consistent, but they don't necessarily succeed, as you point out, and some wolves (like me, when I am a wolf) act even more off the wall than they do when they're ordos, because they know that if they try to control everything they say it is more likely to slip than if they just go with the flow and try to subtly direct the village.

More on her slips later.

258

Has no idea who to kill yet.

Izzy (387) comments on her use of the word 'kill' here, instead of, say, lynch or vote.

262

Say's she'll 'look over Nienna's posts real quick and see what the fuss is about.' Eight minutes later . . .

266

Votes for Nienna, indicating her 'furry potential', her being 'blinking brilliant as a wolf', and generally wariness to leave her alive for long.

DAY 2

401

Says that she has no suspicions, and that she'll abstain from voting for fear of killing an innocent or worse, a gifted. But she'll step in if she 'dislikes the way the vote is going.' Slipetty-slip number three?

412

Banter. Comments on Izzy's vote for her.

415

Post was made after the deadline. More banter.

DAY 3

426

Alonariel = Nienna2? Affirms Kuru is Beren. Says she'll look into why Firefoot was killed, but would like the opinion of others, too.

430

Was interrogated by Kuru re yesterDAY's voting. Affirms that she didn't suspect anyone, but though Kuru wasn't innocent (!?). Didn't find Nog suspicious then.

The fourth sentence of her response to Kuru is quite confusing. If I'm reading it aright . . . slip number four?!

433

Quotes Gwath's answer to Kuru's interrogation, and says she feels the same way. Adds that she didn't like the way the vote was going, and that she was about to vote. But don't worry, the deadline saved you.

439

Comments on Nilp's vote list, thinks that Nilp's purpose with it is to mess with her head. Then she says she's going to bed, with intriguing comments such as fearing being killed at NIGHT and interesting stories to share after the game.

Conclusions:

• Her voting has been rather suspect.
• She has made quite a lot of slips, and some rather curious statements, which probably goes with her being off-the-wall style as a wolf (as she has already indicated).
• But, I am generally suspicious of her anyway.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Bleah. I'm eating supper.

I'll probably be back before the deadline.

[Kuruharan]

I have a proposal to make for our conduct today. I believe that thus far there has not been nearly enough analysis taking place on the part of those of us here. This needs to change if the Villagers are going to avoid suffering a humiliating rout in this game.

So, my proposal is that everyone here needs to offer up a post with their ideas and analysis of every other player here so we can construct some workable theories so we can look at events and be able to say “If X happens then Y must be true or if X doesn’t happen then Z must be true.” We cannot have any more of people being too afraid to vote or voting out of reaction because some other player dared to speculate about them (or being able to say these things and use it as cover). Everyone is going to be speculating about everyone else. The more ideas we get out there on the table now the better. You are all intelligent people and you all have ideas, even if you don’t think you do…go review the thread and develop some. Look at the behavior of other players and share your thoughts about all of them with us. We are flirting with the nether-regions of disaster now, its time for everybody to open up.

Aside from giving us some theories to work from, this level of theorycrafting will put pressure on the wolves because they will be forced to talk too and they will have to do one of two things. They will either have to band more closely together in the things they say, thus making themselves ripe for being wiped out all at once, or they will fragment in some way and one way or another help us kill their fellows to save their own skins. Wolf kills are what we need right now and I am not in the least averse to wolf on wolf violence.

The critical aspect of this plan is that everyone is speculating about everyone else and ideas are discussed as freely as possible. Being dead, I am not going to have many qualms about making people uncomfortable who I don’t believe are contributing. As I said, you are all intelligent people and well capable of developing good ideas that are worth considering and listening to (except, of course, for the wolves who all need to be brutally killed ). Villagers I am only doing it for your own good if I seem to pick on you, we are well on our way to being stomped here if things don’t change. Wolves I am not doing it for your own good because I want you to lose…so please make many mistakes and fall all over each other and generally run around like headless chickens.

Essentially I want a situation where everyone has laid their cards on the table and exposed themselves (get your junior high giggles out of your system now…all done? Good. Moving on.) In this way the village will have clearer ideas of what has happened previously and be better able to act according to what happens in the future thanks to having done some thorough analysis and planning.

As I said, this village is skirting the ragged edge of disaster and is going to have to make some effort to save itself.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Kent2010

but your suspicions against me are wrong and I thought you were blatantly exaggerating it.

You completely over-reacted to somebody putting forward some speculations about you to the point where you put me in an untenable position where I couldn't talk about much else but you and I had to vote against you to try to save myself...even though at the beginning I wasn't really intending to vote against you at all.

That's what having people getting overly defensive about speculation gets us...voting on emotions rather than evidence.

We really need to avoid that toDay.

And I agree with you regarding Gwath.

Anyway, posting from work right now and I have to stop...will be back later.

[A Little Green]

Hello I'm here. I would have been here already a few hours ago if the Barrow-Downs hadn't had some problems.

Originally Posted by Nog

Those players that are bolded probably include the three baddies, Grima and three innocents in danger to die on the oncoming Nights.

We need to get a baddie toDay - or at least force them to use their votes.

First thing towards that direction is to concentrate our search on those bolded. That's at least my plan for toDay.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Now if all of the innocents used their votes early and all of the baddies saved their's, that would be a very stupid move for both sides. It's only the beginning of the third Day and I'm not gonna just throw out half my bonus votes this early just to prove to you that I'm innocent...and I do find it weird that you suggest that all the innocents use their bonus votes early. Now if we did that, of course the baddies will have the upper hand.

Now, about this bonus vote stuff. I agree with Brinn - meanwhile it does seem like a sensible thing for the baddies to do to spare their bonus votes, that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be sensible for an innocent too. I don't see the sense in consuming your bonus votes unless you are at least relatively sure about the person you vote for - and I, for one, haven't yet been so and I bet that's the case with many others as well. What is more, the sort of "I suspect everyone who hasn't used any bonus votes" attitude isn't going to do us good in the long run as it may pressure people to use their bonus votes even if they weren't sure of what they are doing, which not only might lead to disastrous voting scenarios but also to a situation where most people have used up their bonus votes and the few wolves who have them left can control the game easily.

I'll be back in a while with some comments on yesterDay.

Oh, and a little addition: I still don't think the post count a relevant source of information concerning the amount of participation. There are people who like to post the thing they want to say in shorter sections and those who put it all in one post. Also, I don't think the amount of posts (unless outrageously small) necessarily correlates with the amount of actual substance the player provides.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Here's the current player-list with the number of bonus-votes left.

Brinniel (10)
Fea (6)
Formendacil (10)
Green (10)
Gwath (10)
Izzy (8)
Kent (5)
Kuruharan (6)
Lari (10)
Nilp (7)
Nogrod (5)
Sally (10)
Shasta (10)

Those players that are bolded probably include the three baddies, Grima and three innocents in danger to die on the oncoming Nights.

We need to get a baddie toDay - or at least force them to use their votes.

First thing towards that direction is to concentrate our search on those bolded. That's at least my plan for toDay.

Why is this such an urgent thing to do? We're now on 10-3 but as Kuru is here only for this Day the numbers will be 7-3 toMorrow if we miss toDay (unless Finrod succeeds of course).

Now Thuringwethil can kill someone who still has ten votes on the Night to come and suck the votes to herself giving her twenty extra votes toMorrow. The wolves - having 10 extra each - add up another twenty. Grima possibly having ten extra as well, s/he can just wait and see how the baddies start voting and join the fray. They have together 50 extra votes! That reads fifty! 50!

And those 50 votes are available for them to use against the remaining maximum votes of six innocents - the total number of our votes being 37 at the moment - not counting the possible extras we need to use already toDay...

So toMorrow they lynch whomever they wish and kill one the next Night leading us into 5-3 on Day5 and openly defeat us under the bright sunlight. (Yeah, they too may need to use some of their extra-votes toMorrow to drive the lynch but even one of us ordos not voting in line with others eases their task considerably)

But that's why they would love to keep their full bonus-vote stack yet toDay. And that's why we need to either empty their pockets or lynch one of them toDay.

Well if one of the baddies has already used a few of her/his bonus votes? That's perfectly possible but I wouldn't count on that as a common guideline, at least toDay. And I could bet quite a lot that at least two of them are still fully armed - I'm afraid they all are - so let's dig them out.

*hugs you*

Okay, first of all as far as I understand Thureth....Thurwen....*looks it up*....Thuringwethil can only suck two votes, so at max 'she' is going to end up with 12. Still problematic, but not as bad as you'd think, since hopefully she'll suck (no pun intended, yet it totally is) after she's already used a good portion of her bonus votes.

And I sort of agree about at least some of the baddies still having a full arsenal, but it's possible that they might have used some of them yesterDay either in self preservation or just to get poor Kuru out of the way.

By the way, thanks SO much for the attention yesterDay. *glares* Focus your mad wolf hunting skills (and associated remaining bonus votes) on a baddie next time though if you please.

....

....

Crap. I just went back and read the rules and you're right. If she kills someone she gets however many bonus votes that person has left. Oh my giddy aunt. Now I see why you're concerned. In that case it would almost be better for everyone to rid themselves of some bonus votes toDay if for no other reason than to make sure that if Vamp Girl (I don't want to keep scrolling up to find her name) kills someone she doesn't get as many votes. (Theoretically when she makes her kill, if she hasn't already, she might go for someone with their full arsenal as Noggie called it, knowing that we won't see the result of her vote suck because the person will be dead. Again, just a theory, but it makes sense to me.)

That brings up an interesting point. Footie didn't use any of her bonus votes so it's very possible that Vampie wanted her extra power. There's probably other reasons too, but if Vamp Girl made the kill last Night then that would be my guess as to why.

Originally Posted by Nilp's analysis of me

(Insert his commentary on me here)

Conclusions:

• Her voting has been rather suspect.
• She has made quite a lot of slips, and some rather curious statements, which probably goes with her being off-the-wall style as a wolf (as she has already indicated).
• But, I am generally suspicious of her anyway.

Here your logic fails. You'll notice that when I said 'wolves like me' I also stated that I do that when I'm a wolf. My voting was explained (sort of) but I really do understand why you'd find that odd, so I'm not at all upset about that. And I know. You just hate me.

[Nogrod]

I do warmly recommend everyone following Kuru's idea.

It's about time some people opened their mouths and stopped hiding in the shadows trying deliberately not to displease anyone but the one they vote *coughGreeniecough* or fail to vote *coughGwathSallycough*.

I would indeed love to see a round from everyone where you would come up with at least one suspicion of everyone else. So no more "I'll rub you nicely, please rub me back nicely"-stuff either. Let the suspicions flow.

I'll need to make some dinner but I'll be back after that with a few answers / questions to Brinn and then hopefully doing Kuru's bidding myself.

EDIT: X'd with Sally

[Formendacil]

So... at the start of the Day, when I was getting quite sleepy, thanks quite possibly to alcohol and smoke and a week of too little sleep--well, at that point I was all post-happy and could feel the ideas for analysis sitting just out of conscious thought.

Now it's midday, and I can't think of a single constructive thing to say... so I'm just popping to note that I'm here, and I'm planning on being back toward the last hour or two of toDay, but I'll be gone until then (Final exams and 3 hour drive...).

Don't do anything stupid. Please?

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Kent2010

P.S. one more thing...

I'd like to know Gwath why you decided to chime in at the end between Kuru and myself? I appreciated it at the time, but now with not voting it looks like a move to egg the situation forward and looks like an oppurtunistic wolf defending an innocent.

At the end? Probably because I didn't read the exchange until it was nearly over. Kuru said you had been making a big fuss over your newbie status and I disagreed with him, so I said so. It seemed possible to me that Kuru genuinely believed you had been overly defensive and that he wasn't simply misrepresenting the situation, as a wolf would do. This possibility contributed to my indecision when it came time to vote, as I do not like to vote against people simply based on a difference of opinion. If I did that, I'd never vote anyone but Nogrod and Rikae.

[Gwathagor]

Regarding the bonus votes issue: the more innocents who save their bonus votes, the better - whoever has the most bonus votes towards the end of the game will win. Do NOT waste them now.

Now that I'm thinking along these lines, I wonder if Grima might be likely to try to force innocents to use their bonus votes early on by using some of his/her own.

[Kent2010]

That's what having people getting overly defensive about speculation gets us...voting on emotions rather than evidence.
-Kuru

And I'm going to let you know how I play. There were plenty of apt reasons to honestly believe your were at least the cobbler, my reasons were not skewed by the emotion at the end.

One of the games I scanned before this, a person who played the cobbler said he was the cobbler in one of his very first posts and that went ignored until it was too late. Some may think an ordos job is to vote, let the specials fight it out, and die, but I don't. I will jump right into something, if smiley and punctutation placement can be scrutinized I will call out coded messages and titles. Think twice before anyone tries nifty mind tricks and manuevers. I believe if you bring that type of attention to yourself you get what you ask - for either good or ill.

My mistake was the emotions at the end led me to dump 5 bonus votes on you, and even if you turned out to be the cobbler, that was probably far too much to waste on the cobbler.

But now you all know how I call it, if you don't like it and think my job is to shut up and die, tough...deal with it.

Now, with that out of the way, I will do as you ask Kuru and get to analyzing. I can't be here until the deadline today, but I have lots of hours open today.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

So... at the start of the Day, when I was getting quite sleepy, thanks quite possibly to alcohol and smoke and a week of too little sleep--well, at that point I was all post-happy and could feel the ideas for analysis sitting just out of conscious thought.

Now it's midday, and I can't think of a single constructive thing to say... so I'm just popping to note that I'm here, and I'm planning on being back toward the last hour or two of toDay, but I'll be gone until then (Final exams and 3 hour drive...).

Don't do anything stupid. Please?

Define stupid.


Incidentally, unless I misunderstood (which is highly possible) Kent thought of Kuru as a cobbler, yet he was determined to see Kuru go. Not that I'm advocating leaving the cobbler around to create further problems, but why waste so much effort on a Kuru-cobbler when there's wolves to be caught? Seems either a bit counterintuitive or a lot evil. Take your pick.

[Gwathagor]

Well, if you CAN'T find a wolf, but you CAN find a cobbler, then it makes sense to vote the cobbler - something is better than nothing. I do agree, of course, that wolves take priority.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Well, if you CAN'T find a wolf, but you CAN find a cobbler, then it makes sense to vote the cobbler - something is better than nothing. I do agree, of course, that wolves take priority.

Very good point. I'm just concerned by the fact that Kent was after Kuru for perhaps being the cobbler and didn't seem to be bothered much by everyone else. Maybe I'm just paranoid or something.

*shrugs*

Also, good point a few posts above about Grima wanting people to use their bonus votes. I wouldn't want everyone to use them, but I think if at some point in the game there's only a couple ordos with all their bonus votes Vamp Girl might kill 'em and suck 'em dry. That was my only real concern. Although I'm still worried both about people who use them frivolously (aka use 6 or so in a Day, not that it's a problem so much a possible indication that they've got more than we think they do) or people who intentionally are holding them not for just the right time, but specifically for the end of the game.

[Lariren Shadow]

I'm going to echo what has been said about the bonus votes. Saying that a wolf/vamp is holding on to their votes, while plausible, might not be true. If they were to see a villager that is on to them using their bonus votes to kill that villager wouldn't be a bad idea. That way they could, conceivably, get two kills in one Day. Maybe looking at those who used their bonus votes already might not be a bad idea.

I for one am saving mine till I feel really sure of someone's guilt.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Aside from giving us some theories to work from, this level of theorycrafting will put pressure on the wolves because they will be forced to talk too and they will have to do one of two things. They will either have to band more closely together in the things they say, thus making themselves ripe for being wiped out all at once, or they will fragment in some way and one way or another help us kill their fellows to save their own skins. Wolf kills are what we need right now and I am not in the least averse to wolf on wolf violence.

This is just one instance but why are we assuming that the baddies are the quiet ones? I know why I've been quiet, and I'm going to respect the rules about not talking about RL stuff. This whole "let's look at the quiet ones" thing, excluding when Kuru says it, seems like a good way for the wolves/vamp to get more innocents killed. While there is a probability that, in the quiet ones, there is a baddie, there is the same probability that there is a baddie among the vocal ones. Limiting the suspicions to just the quiet ones is a good way for a vocal baddie to hide.

At some point toDay I will be doing the whole long theories post like Kuru said we should.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nog

It's about time some people opened their mouths and stopped hiding in the shadows trying deliberately not to displease anyone but the one they vote *coughGreeniecough*

What's this about? "Hiding in the shadows" should be translated as "being busy with school stuff" and "Trying not to displease anyone but the one they vote" as "having no time to concentrate on many people and thus using the time you have to look at someone more properly - and not feeling good about what you find there". I think we've had this discussion before but everyone doesn't have the time to be as vocal as you and that shouldn't be anything to get upset about. Unless you'd like to establish some hardcore-ww game where everyone has to post at least 30 posts and suspect the minimum of seven people a day, you should accept that everyone just isn't able to post as actively as you'd like. Sorry to sound heated, but I don't particularly like that accusatory tone you always have when talking about someone who, for one reason or another, plays with a different style than you do.

Back soon with a list...


EDIT: x-ed with Lari

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

So... at the start of the Day, when I was getting quite sleepy, thanks quite possibly to alcohol and smoke and a week of too little sleep--well, at that point I was all post-happy and could feel the ideas for analysis sitting just out of conscious thought.

Well now, reverend Form! Bless you!
(btw. at the moment you stand third in my list of suspicions but that is sure subject to change as I will go back to look at everyone...)



Okay, to Brinn's last post then to begin with as I think it's important.

Originally Posted by Brinn

So you're saying I should've been one to make a decisive vote for a second time and it was wrong of me not to? I was given a lot of crap yesterDay for giving the decisive vote to someone I didn't suspect much...

You could say that very same thing as a wolf and as an innocent, so it's not exactly an argument on your behalf. Though I must agree that the only decent reason I have for still doubting my case on you a bit is your vote on Day1. Maybe you were indecisive then - as you claimed toDay you were yesterDay?

Originally Posted by Brinn

But as I stated in an earlier post, I did not care for any of the choices on the lynching block nor did I particularly care to save anyone on it, so why should I vote for one of them if I didn't have a reason to? My main suspects were Sally and Firefoot and I stuck by those suspicions.

Well, if you really suspected Sally and Firefoot - and you were an ordo seeing nothing particularly good/bad in me and Kuru - wouldn't you have wished to persuade some others to see your point? It's more than obvious that both I and Kuru would have been more than ready to discuss an alternative solution - and whatever your thoughts were, shouldn't you have shared them with us others online at that time to try and make it good for the Pub (the village, that is)? But no, you were not interested about the outcome of the vote but of whom do you give a vote that will not be eyed too closely as it's not a decisive vote?

A goodie cares about the outcome of the vote as lynches are basically the only ways of getting the baddies down. To baddies it's not such a big thing unless one of them is in trouble in a critical moment.

Your action yesterDay didn't give the impression of you being bothered as who would be killed, but it gave the impression of you being very interested in not voting for anyone who would get killed and thus would lead into someone scrutinizing you on behalf of that innocent's death.

Also, if you were a goodie you would have wanted to negotiate the lynch with the others. Why do you try to imply to us (in your earlier post toDay) you were having really a tough time deciding between Firefoot and Sally like it was something important (which it wasn't because you left your vote to the last possible instant so that no one could react to your vote) as meanwhile you don't give a damn to who gets lynched by not trying to influence the vote / negotiate it with others still to vote?


--- interlude ---

My vote may have only counted as one but it still made a difference since Sally did almost get lynched. Maybe I should call you the safe voter for giving Sally five votes at the very end which was just one shy of sealing her fate. Since you're all about decisive voting, why not add on one more bonus vote and get her lynched?

That's a story indeed. Just think how mad I was when I realised I had lost four perfectly usable bonus-votes for nothing!

After seeing at .58 that Izzy had given Sally 4 votes, I sighed from relief and had just written Sally's name to my vote post and was counting for like third time how many votes I should spend to make her even with me when I refreshed the screen and saw your vote to Sally - and Nilp's +3 to Kuru.

But Nilp's vote was not highlighted!

It was already .00 and I refreshed the page a few times to see whether Nilp had edited his post to highlight his vote, but it never turned red. I had no idea how many seconds I had left and finally blinked making the post - adding one more bonus vote just in case someone - like Sally - would have given me one more vote in between my last 'refresh the page' and 'submit message' -clicks.

I just couldn't trust Nilp's vote would be accepted as it was not highlighted on .00.


--- end interlude ---


Your idea of calling me the safe-voter or someone shying away from decisive voting is ridiculous even if you didn't notice that error of Nilp not highlighting his vote. Why would I waste four bonus votes for nothing when I'm about to be lynched? Really. At .59 I was still leading the tally. You think someone would love to be indecisive at that kind of minute?

Are you that low on things to throw at me when I got you?

While I agree that some of the baddies are surely saving up their votes, I really don't like the way you're implying that everyone who hasn't used a bonus vote is automatically suspicious. More than half the players haven't used their bonus votes and I don't think we're wrong in choosing so.

I just tried to awaken people to the problem we have in our hands. If you think my theory is bad you should argue for a better one and not blame me for trying. The moment you come up with a better working plan I will abandon mine and change to yours.

Also I disagree with you in principle here (which has nothing to do with whatever suspicions I have about you). In principle the bonus votes are a great asset to the baddies as they know each other and can co-ordinate their votes in real-time via PM's. That's a huge weapon they have - and a terrible disadvantage to us.

So what's the cure? We will never be able to gather all the innocents who are in doubt under one banner to collectively vote together from our solitary confinements, but the "all-knowing" and "all the time PM'ing" baddies can do it. So let's get rid of that power only the baddies can use as soon as we can.

So we need to create an athmosphere where anyone having ten bonus-votes left feels s/he is going to be lynched because of it - or which would be better: we should force the baddies to defend their mate(s) with their bonus-votes, if we just got a good enough threat to them.

For they will fight toDay. If they get through this Day with no extra-votes used and lynching an innocent they will win unless a miracle happens. So we need to force them to fight toDay if we get it right - or at least need to pressurise them to disarm with the threat of lynching.

Suspecting you heavily I think is a good start.

As I said yesterDay: an ordo may think a lot of voting power is her/his ultimate defence but that's not true. We can not organise our votes as the baddies can and a single disagreement may be the end of it.

I didn't post those counts of the worst-scenario numbers in vain. That is a true possibility and we may be practically lost toMorrow morning.

I do find it weird that you suggest that all the innocents use their bonus votes early.

Who has suggested that kind of "tactics"? Not me. I said we should all disarm - as a show of confidence that is - and then lynch those who do not wish to join. And I expressed many reservations to that. And I already kind of deserted the plan in my posts as an impossible one to execute - before I realised it could be accomplished if we could pressure the wolves toDay.

Oh my, enough of this... I'll come back to your other points if you insist but this is getting too long and I should pay attention to other affairs as well.


EDIT: X'd with a host of posts I see...

[Kent2010]

While I agree that some of the baddies are surely saving up their votes, I really don't like the way you're implying that everyone who hasn't used a bonus vote is automatically suspicious.
-Brinn

Now, about this bonus vote stuff. I agree with Brinn - meanwhile it does seem like a sensible thing for the baddies to do to spare their bonus votes, that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be sensible for an innocent too.
-Greenie

I'm going to echo what has been said about the bonus votes. Saying that a wolf/vamp is holding on to their votes, while plausible, might not be true.
-Lariren

This is interesting...three defenses for keeping onto the bonus votes. So, how to seperate the unsure innocent holding on to the boni until necessary from the wolves harvesting them?

Because I think Nogrod's essential point is that currently over half the village (7 of 13) has all of their bonus votes and 9 of 13 has over 7. That is quite a disparity. And he's not saying if you have 10 bonus votes you are a wolf, but he's saying there are wolves clutching onto their bonus as Smaug does with treasure.

If you take out the universal innocent Kuru, and I count myself out because I'm an ordo, that is 9/11 with over 7 bonus, and 7/11 with all 10. There are two ways we can solve this disparity.

One, lynch the people with 6 and under, that would get rid of the gap in bonus, but I doubt that will work, because I'm innocent and I still see no reason to think Nogrod is a baddie.

Or two we start applying pressure to those who have lots of bonus, that will even the levels back down, and based on the huge proportion of people with all their bonus still left, there is one if not multiple baddies.

I also think some of you are being a bit too defensive about what Nogrod is saying regarding bonus votes. It does not sound like he's saying if you have 10 bonus you are a wolf and we will lynch you, he's focusing the field. The fact is over half the people still have all there bonus, and its faulty to disregard that fact by saying "well yes there could be a wolf here, but there could not be as well!"

x'ed with Nogrod and Greenie

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

This is just one instance but why are we assuming that the baddies are the quiet ones?

I'm not. While I admit that at the moment I very much suspect that the debates thus far have largely missed the actual wolves entirely that doesn't mean that I am assuming they have been quiet.

I don't really want anybody to be assuming anything about anybody. We need analysis and facts. Everyone should be giving *everybody* else a hard look, and when I say everyone I mean everyone...loud, quiet, tall, short, thin, fat...whatever.

*jabs a sharp object at Form*

What do you mean you don't have any idea about what to say? You're smart and you've talked almost more than anybody else in this thread.

*removes the booze and smokes far from where Form is*

I was a bit reluctant to do this because I *don't* want everyone following me around like lemmings because I don't really know more than anybody else but since people seem more interested in doing more self-justification I guess I'll go ahead and do a quick overview to get us started.

Brinniel - Deeply Suspicious. Her help throughout has been less than helpful when it comes down to it. She is exhibiting a lot of those troubling "be visible but nowhere near the forefront" signs. If I was voting right now I'd vote for her.

Fea - Where is she toDay? Some of her actions, like her vote for Nogrod are really beginning to strike me as more than a little bit creepy. Course she always strikes me as creepy...

Form - I'm beginning to grow troubled about Form. For the most part I have thought that he is innocent, but at the same time I'm disturbed by just how much he has managed to blend into the background. This is almost never good. Right at the moment I'm having some very disturbing visions of a possible Form/Nilp axis that I am not liking the implications of at all. Not that I really have anything concrete to back it up, its just a thought that has flashed through my mind.

Green - I have to admit that I don't totally follow Nogrod's suspicions about her...but the fact that Nog is so suspicious of her is enough to make me wary. I personally think we have bigger fish to fry than her though.

Gwath - Deeply Suspicious. He, like Brinn, is one who's help has proved to be less than actually helpful. His behavior yesterDay at the end was very troubling what with him appearing to egg on the Kent vs. Kuru situation and then his not voting by reason of fright. Another theory is that he was hoping not to leave any fingerprints. He's been talky today but not really offered anything useful at the time I'm typing this.

Izzy - Kind of below my mental radar right now...which is causing all sorts of warning klaxons to go off in my head. I'm hoping some others will have some more substantial things to say about her.

Kent - Mostly now I think he's innocent given the hyperactivity of his defense yesterday. That did bear signs of an innocent falsely accused and thinking he's on to something...alas...he wasn't. :\ Still don't trust him, though.

Lari - Another one who is kind of beneath my mental radar. *cue warning klaxons* For some reason they aren't going off as loudly about her as about Izzy...but there is no rational reason for that. Don't have any fix on her.

Nilp - The other half of my feared Form/Nilp axis that I'm kinda worried about. If it is them or one of them we may be done for because we are running out of time to test theories. He's appeared helpful...and yet weird at the same time, but that is kinda normal. Definitely kind of has that blending into the background feel for me at least.

Nogrod - I think he is innocent. He's the one I feel most confident about being innocent. If he's a wolf then, quite frankly, its getting to the point where he deserves the win and my hat will be unreservedly off to him for it.

Sally - Deeply suspicious. Her help has also not been particularly helpful and she didn't vote yesterDay. I will say that in my mind it is a mitigating circumstance that Brinn voted for her. If Brinn turns out to be innocent I'd definitely want to lynch Sally.

Shasta - I don't trust him at all, but he's been around so little that it feels like we have bigger fish to fry than him.

Right now my mind is focused on a Brinn - Gwath combination with the third wolf not really clear to me, or secondarily a Form - Nilp combination also with the third wolf unclear.

I'm struggling with that third wolf.

It could also be some other combination of the above.

Anyway, its time for me to head back to work and that's where things are for me right now.

Get posting!

xed with everyone since 470

[Nogrod]

It's good I had a cigarette first before sending this one. I wrote quite a rant and a disclaimer of some eloquence but have now deleted it and will only say this.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Sorry to sound heated, but I don't particularly like that accusatory tone you always have when talking about someone who, for one reason or another, plays with a different style than you do.

I have nothing against different tactics. No. Everyone may play as they will.

But everyone should be ready to face the consequences of not giving themselves into the game and thus being looked on as suspicious by those others who actually play or see it that way.

One may play as she wishes but she can't protest if someone thinks her guilty because of that. One should be able to play as she wishes, but also able to suspect others just the way she wishes.

Or do you want to say that playing-styles are free but ways to suspect are not?

[Nogrod]

Kuru! Are you just "a phantom" or do you have votes that count?

That would be nice to know.

[A Little Green]

Brinniel (10) -Seems innocentish and I agree with her a lot. (Not that that means anything - I've been saying that about her in every game we've played together, regardless of her role...)

Fea (6) - Quite frankly I have no idea about her. I'd love to have a look at her if I have the time. Her vote yesterDay was weird because it wasn't explained in any way whatsoever. She did mention earlier that her attention was on Nog because of his Day 1 vote, but unless I missed something she didn't voice suspicion on him anywhere else.

Formendacil (10) - He still seems innocent and speaks good sense.

Gwath (10) - His Day 1 vote made me raise eyebrows, as did his lack of vote on Day 2. His posting has looked okay otherwise.

Izzy (8) - I have no idea whatsoever. She's so securely under my radar that I begin to get worried. She's another I'd love to look at.

Kent (5) - Seems innocent. Can't put it better than that.

Kuruharan (6) - I don't know why I included him in the list in the first place since we know what he is. Nice guy.

Lari (10) - As securely under my radar as Izzy. She has pretty much escaped my attention this far. I'll look at her if I have the time.

Nilp (7) - Sometimes I just don't get where he's coming from, with all that stuff about Sally's "slips" (none of which looked like wolf slips to me) and post counts. I don't know about him, but he's at least someone I will keep an eye on.

Nogrod (5) - I'm trying to get past my irritation with him () and analyse him objectively. I'm still behind everything I said about him yesterDay. His Day 1 vote still seems very fishy to me. Also, I don't see the logic behind his theory on how everyone should consume their votes as soon as possible. Or rather, I can see it serving a purpose if he's evil, but not otherwise.

Sally (10) - I don't have much of a read on her either, but there's nothing about her that makes me wary.

Shasta (10) - I understand he's been busy, but that doesn't make his Day 2 vote any less strange. Actually, Shasta - you said your vote was random between the three people you suspected. Who were the three and on what grounds did you suspect them? Form was one, obviously, I guess I was another, but who was the third? Yeah, but I don't know about Shasta. He speaks sense at times, and at times he behaves weirdly.

Any conclusions? Most of the people are apparently either "no idea" or "either innocent or wolf". In other words, looks much like my lists always do. I'll probably vote in an hour or so and go to sleep. As yet I don't know who to vote for, though.


EDIT: x-ed since my last - oh my, what novels these guys are writing!

[Brinniel]

Okay, I do want to respond to you Nogrod as I disagree with you and am irritated on many levels. But I have somewhere to be shortly, so it'll have to wait a few hours. Perhaps that's a good thing for you because I'm feeling extremely peeved right now. I'm actually tempted to use all of my bonus votes on you toDay just to prove I'm not "disinterested" and "safe." But even if you are a wolf, what good would that be for the village? Someone mentioned that forcing everyone to use their bonus votes may prove disastrous if innocents feel pressured to use them on someone they don't strongly suspect just so they don't get lynched. As for me, I worry I might waste my votes by letting emotion cloud my judgment. Right now I can't tell if I'm suspicious of you because I'm suspicious or if I find you suspicious because I'm angry with you.

Btw, if you lynch someone with 10 votes and they turn out to be an innocent...you just took away 10 bonus votes from the village, which gives the wolves the advantage. Since seven people haven't used their bonus votes yet, lynching wrongly would be very easy to do toDay.

Great...now I'm probably gonna be late for where I need to be. See, you really shouldn't mess with a girl who's PMSing right now...

[Kent2010]

I find this rather weird. If you think someone to be the seer there's no good reason to state it publicly. Maybe the wolves already picked up on it, but maybe not and you just gave it away. The fact that she feels the need to defend her statement suggesting that Agan may be the seer in that same post is even more concerning.

Though it's also possible this was a ploy and Firefoot was trying to make the wolves think Agan was the seer when she really just believed her to be an ordo so that they would Night kill her. This scenario has occurred before. But I've never played with Firefoot before, so I don't know if she is the type of player to come up with such a ploy.
-Brinn in #383

This is peculiar, particularly that 2nd paragraph. The 1st paragraph is a typical reaction to Firefoot pointing out Agan could be the seer on Day 1. But the 2nd paragraph, yesterday is peculiar because Firefoot was killed.

Brinn's 'alternate scenario' is Firefoot was trying to make the wolves think Agan was the seer and the wolves would target her - and that this wouldn't be the first time. I'm not quite sure what situation Brinn is referring to, but is this an early glance of the wolves discussion last night in picking Firefoot? The 2nd scenario is just odd, because how would Firefoot know Agan was not the seer, believe Agan was an ordo, and decide to set her up as the seer for the wolves to go after that night - if Firefoot was not the seer herself?

I am going under the assumption that the wolves primary person they want out of the way is the seer, so the alternate scenario is really strange considering Firefoot was killed last night.

One of my disagreements with Nilp's analysis over Firefoot's post is this:

329
Wonders about Nog's DAY 1 vote (something that Izzy questioned about, too, but Nog brushed it off.) Thought that Kuru was just a safe vote for Nog and that the real target was Nienna. Calls his voting sloppy.

Comments on Nog's 313 (a comment on Kuru's 311, where he thought Kuru's explanation of the NIGHT kill seemed to be 'a post trying to convince us he's no baddie'.) She said that Nog wasn't suspicious of Kuru yesterday, and that Nog's analysis of the possibility of Kuru's wolvishness wasn't forthcoming.

Indicates her suspicion of Nogrod, but holds it back by saying that her suspicion comes from his being talkative. Comments on Kent's obsession with his newbie status.

Perhaps the post that killed her, if we go with the assumption that the Evil Three are hunting Lúthien . . .

I have a problem with this, if the wolves believed Firefoot was the seer, and that's why she was killed, I would not just look at who she attacked (mostly Nogrod yesterday) but who she defended might be just as important. If she defended someone pretty strongly, that could also be a tip off to the wolves, making them believe Firefoot was the seer.

x'ed with Brinn and Greenie

[Kent2010]

Btw, if you lynch someone with 10 votes and they turn out to be an innocent...you just took away 10 bonus votes from the village, which gives the wolves the advantage.
-Brinn

That person whether wolf or innocent will most likely use their bonus to save themselves, which is I think the bigger point, to start levelling out the field.