Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Now that you see Legate isn't the Seer, do you still wish for your pack to take credit for that kill, Lottie?

Did I say that? Huh. Funny how things happen, isn't it? Maybe I killed him. I'd like to have killed him, if only because I'd like to have killed every one of you, and every one in the Living thread, too, but who can remember, really? The blood lust rises, your vision goes fuzzy, and well, I was in such a state of shock, I completely blacked out. I can't remember a thing. It wasn't until later, when I was washing the blood off my hands I even knew they were dead.

But anyway, whoever I killed...

They had it coming
They had it coming
They had it coming all along
I didn't do it
But if I'd done it
How could you tell me that I was wrong?

[A Little Green]

Aww honey now you're just being mean.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

My pack has more interesting blood to stain their fangs with.

Care to share your vision? To satisfy our curiosity, so that we don't have to wait the whole Night for it?

Originally Posted by the phantom

Now that you see Legate isn't the Seer, do you still wish for your pack to take credit for that kill, Lottie?

Yeah, Lottie, *eat* that!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Did I say that? Huh. Funny how things happen, isn't it? Maybe I killed him. I'd like to have killed him, if only because I'd like to have killed every one of you, and every one in the Living thread, too, but who can remember, really? The blood lust rises, your vision goes fuzzy, and well, I was in such a state of shock, I completely blacked out. I can't remember a thing. It wasn't until later, when I was washing the blood off my hands I even knew they were dead.

That was a good Day, but it's Night now and we have a new task at hand.

So which are our viable choices for toNight?

Legate then, or do you think Mac needs to be checked? Being safe on the alignment of which one of them would give us (and the Living) most valuable info?

Any others we'd need to consider checking: the phantom, Rikae, myself? I guess that would be the widest reasonable list. (I'm kind of excluding Rune as there is probably very little his alignment could tell us - and kind of think that fits to me as well, but you'll judge that.)

[Nogrod]

This continuous stuff going in the narrations surely means something, but does anyone have even a decentish idea as to what it could mean? Something to do with the special role? When it is received, when it is fulfilled or ready to use...

Day2 opening:

Originally Posted by Kuru

One individual had even developed a persistent itch due to the damp from the doors being permanently shut.

Day3 opening:

Originally Posted by Kuru

One of the residents scratched as they all looked about themselves.

Day4 ending:

Originally Posted by Kuru

*scratch scratch scratch*

[Rikae]

Well, "looked all about themselves" = Nerwen's evesdropping, I suppose

Beyond that, nothing really.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That was a good Day, but it's Night now and we have a new task at hand.

So which are our viable choices for toNight?

Legate then, or do you think Mac needs to be checked? Being safe on the alignment of which one of them would give us (and the Living) most valuable info?

Any others we'd need to consider checking: the phantom, Rikae, myself? I guess that would be the widest reasonable list. (I'm kind of excluding Rune as there is probably very little his alignment could tell us - and kind of think that fits to me as well, but you'll judge that.)

I know I was one who said Legate, but now I'm thinking maybe we should make a list of everyone & what knowing that person's role would tell us. Scry the person with the biggest trail. Off the top of my head I feel like it's Legate, but I might be missing something.

[the phantom]

As far as which one of us to check-

How likely is the village to assume Nerwen was entirely up front? If they would assume, and if it is true, then a Mac check would be pointless. But if she happens to be up to something, or if the info is simply flawed, and the village worries about it, then we'll want to know Mac and so will they. Of course if Nerwen gets night-killed it will be a moot point- how likely do you think it is that one of the packs will kill off Nerwen?

Basically I do kind of want to know for certain about Mac, especially since Nerwen, Morm, and Firefoot all gave him votes on Day 2. But at the same time I want to maximize our usefulness, and could we be served just as well assuming Mac's guilt for the time being?

Anyway, I will be mostly absent for the next few hours.

[Rikae]

Yeah, I consider it likely Nerwen gets killed toNight (although she may be protected).

Also, my morning brain without coffee keeps thinking Lottie and Nerwen are actually the lovers. Lol.

I'll be back after I'm caffeinated.

[A Little Green]

I'd say it makes more sense to assume Mac's guilt for now. Of course this could be a catastrophic course of action if Nerwen was pulling our leg, but the real Seer is going to come out sooner or later in either this thread or the other one so the truth would come out eventually anyway. Right?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I know I was one who said Legate, but now I'm thinking maybe we should make a list of everyone & what knowing that person's role would tell us. Scry the person with the biggest trail. Off the top of my head I feel like it's Legate, but I might be missing something.

Are you sure you are not the Seer? Upon reading Nog's post, I was thinking totally exactly the same.

Well, I'd look at it this way:

Rune Son of Bjarne - I agree checking him does not make much sense at this moment. Also, he has been killed fairly early, so one cannot also make much based on his associations with people.
Aganzir - likewise not much sense, I think we can assume she is the Hunter.
Lottie - also I daresay we can assume she is a Wolf.
Macalaure - I also think we can be fine with assuming he's a Wolf. If any other circumstances arise, he can be always checked later. But (and what I am about to say is a general point which I would like to underline as the guiding principle of our voting altogether) as of now, people on the Living thread are counting on him being a Wolf, so we won't be bringing any new information to them if we just confirm it. Of course, if we've been fooled, and he's not a Wolf, it would be a completely different matter, but I think so far by probability we should rather look at someone else.
Legate of Amon Lanc - obviously I consider it a waste personally, although if there are real doubts, so be it. But honestly, do you think it helps anyone (meaning, the Living, if we communicate it to them)? (And do you think the chance of me being a Wolf is really that big?) Anyway, thinking about that, we've just established Greenie is innocent. The worst thing that could happen would actually be if the people on the Living thread start assuming I am a Wolf, in that case, by all means check me. But we could wait with it until we know what their reactions are.
Nogrod - even though he would be one of those I could consider, he has the same problem as Rune - and he said it himself - that there is very little his alignment could tell anyone. I would be all for checking him, but he died so early that connections between him and others are not that many (even though, he hadn't been the most quiet player, so mayhaps...?)
Rikae - well. If you permit me, Rikae, you are such an enigma (that's a compliment) that I would be quite inclined to check you. I am not sure it's our priority though. Because if it just tells us you are prey, then well, nice, but didn't help. (Of course that's the case with everyone. I guess now we are just operating on the level of "which of the people we have here is the most likely to be a Wolf hiding amongst us".)
the phantom - could also suffer from the same problem as Rune and Nog, although I think he still must have the highest, or almost highest post count on the Living thread. So it might make sense to check him. Even though now he is very sensible and all, and I have no problem with believing him innocent. But again, it might really be helpful for the village.

So based on rational calculation, I would suggest possibly the phantom, or either Rikae or Nog. Bonus: based on gut feeling, on the other hand, I would even maybe rather check Rikae. Just for the peace of mind. But whatever. Yeah, probably Phantom, or eventually her, that would be my choices.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Greenie

By the way, is there an obvious reason why Mac and Lottie couldn't be packmates? I'm too lazy to reread.

I don't know about others, but I was thinking of how I went after Mac on Day 2 but was reluctant to vote him on Day 3,
making it look like I dreamed him innocent. I doubt Mac's pack would
have thought I was the seer.
And Lottie's pack would have been the most likely one to kill me as a potential seer, because of the way I went after her.

Rune: Died early and didn't leave much of a trail, mostly arguing about having a Day 1 lynch or not.

the phantom:
The fact that he's so determined not to be scryed almost makes me want to scry him.
However, there really isn't much his role would tell us. While alive, he talked mostly about game
mechanics and, while his ideas were controversial, he himself wasn't.
He did help organize the lynching of Nogrod but, as that lynch only really saved the hunter, we can't
conclude much from it.
As long as we're cautious not to allow him and Mac the chance to sway the vote together, his role doesn't matter much.

Legate:
Whether or not Legate is a wolf, it's quite possible there's a packmate of Lottie's among those he
called innocent.
Of course, it's also possible she killed him as a supposed seer who dreamt her
"rival wolf" Greenie, but I do think I'd be a more likely target for her pack.
Mac's pack could have killed me if it included Firefoot, or if they suspected I was a seer who'd dreamt
of Lottie, but considering the way I flip-flopped on Mac, that seems unlikely.
But at any rate, the biggest question about Legate isn't whether he's a wolf, but who killed him.
If he's a wolf we still won't know that, not knowing what pack he belonged to.

Mac:
If Mac is not a wolf, we know that Nerwen is bluffing or lying, but that doesn't matter much considering
that Lottie was a wolf and both Nerwen's accused wolves are dead.
We would know not to chase red herrings in the form of Mac's likely packmates (but are there any strong
candidates anyway?)

If Mac is a wolf, we'd proceed as we have been, pretty much.

Me:
Somebody else is probably better at figuring out what good knowing my role would do. I'm an ordo,
but if somebody can make a case that proving that would be useful, go ahead and scry me.
I can't see one, myself.

I think I'd like to give more consideration to Nog. Even though he died early, he was controversial
and, if he was a wolf, a packmate of his might have behaved in an incriminating fashion either
around the lynch, or knowing a wolf was dead.

[Rikae]

Oh, and you guys:

129 posts to go to surpass the living thread. Get on it! What's a party without music?

Here's a message for someone to take back to the living.

[Nogrod]

I've been involved with a totally another project this day but have managed to slip in every now and then to keep myself up to date. Now I'm off to prepare us some late-supper but will join the party then after for a while.

Bur just one supporting comment relating to what Legate just said (and what many of us have said): Rune is not only probably the least informative one of us to check (with me you still have the D1 wagon), but he has also been quite quiet lately which might also mean he's an ordo who just now has much more interesting things to do. I mean, if he were a wolf he'd probably show some more enthusiasm towards the game...

I see Rikae has also posted a list. Good.

I'll try to make one later on as well.

Now, kitchen calls!


Btw. did you read my suggestion from early toNight / late yesterDay - that if any of you have nice cross-tables (at least Rikae & the phantom have made arguments like "if x is a wolf s/he can't be that with y or z") could you share them with us, and what are they based on? I haven't had time or effrot to collect such a data and it would be really hard work to start gathering them now. But they could help us with no such data available to get a more clear picture of the situation (and if you let some links or hints as to where you have collected them, anyone could check them for our mutual benefit if it felt like it).

[Rikae]

I haven't made anything like that yet, anyway. But it would be useful.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I haven't made anything like that yet, anyway. But it would be useful.

But I think you did something of the sort with your list already - pointing out possible scenarios and stuff in one collected post - which is good.

It would be nice to see even more collected effort to be sure, if you have something where to construct it from easily. I mean I'm not saying others should take huge undertakings while I just hang up with other things, but the idea was initially, that if you have some things ready at hand you could just pass to us - and maybe give them a second or thirtd thought yourselves while making a post on them?

Anyway, I'm off for a moment now...

[Macalaure]

I'm torn.

As much as I'd like to go "told you so!" on all of you, I would also like to actually learn something myself. Legate > Rikae > Nogrod > phantom would be my order, in that case.

Not like anybody would listen to me, of course.

[Rikae]

Oh, one thing:

We're eight people with 2 or more wolves among us who would love to prevent our vote from going through. Even though I'm usually against organized voting schemes, I think it would be best if we discussed who to scry but let Agan & Greenie lead the voting.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Rikae

We're eight people with 2 or more wolves among us who would love to prevent our vote from going through. Even though I'm usually against organized voting schemes, I think it would be best if we discussed who to scry but let Agan & Greenie lead the voting.

A potential minor hiccup: I have work very early tomorrow morning which means I need to go to sleep within an hour. So - any preferences? I'm leaning towards Legate or possibly Nog or Rikae.

[Rikae]

I'm fine with either Legate or Nog (and if you vote for me, I'll follow that vote, since we're better off with me as a known innocent than risking a tied vote and no scry at all).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm fine with either Legate or Nog (and if you vote for me, I'll follow that vote, since we're better off with me as a known innocent than risking a tied vote and no scry at all).

Obviously in such a way, I am more inclined towards Nog. But either way I agree that we should just follow one direction and not split the vote, so even if you choose me, I'll go with voting me (regardless of how useful or useless it is).

You aren't considering the phantom at all, therefore, I assume.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

You aren't considering the phantom at all, therefore, I assume.

Not really. I think Rikae is right, his role wouldn't tell us much, and besides, even if he is a wolf he can't do much harm that could be prevented by us knowing his role.

[A Little Green]

You really shouldn't have me make the choices here.

I think I'm going with

++Legate

I'm leaning innocent on both him and Nog, but I think Legzy is both more sinister and more informative if scried. If you guys decide to go for someone else, by all means do, there's enough of you to make it work. Anyway, that's all from me tonight. Choose well.

Sidenote. I probably won't be around much tomorrow, I'll try to drop by once or twice but my participation is likely quite limited.

[Rikae]

Ok, let's not risk splitting the vote.

I mean, we might have enough votes to pick someone else, but say there are three wolves here and the four remaining innocents voted for Nog or me... the wolves could pile on Legate and tie the vote.

++Legate

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Sure sure, so be it.

++Legate

Let's also hope the next, whoever dies, will be somebody interesting. Or actually, it would be nice if they were Wolves (for instance if the packs killed each one from the other pack). But yep...

[Nogrod]

Out of nine we need 5 votes to be sure it counts.

So I'll add the fourth.

++ Legate

And I think we can count of Agan to give the fifth.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I can't be certain of your alignment, thus I wanted to offer you as little opportunity to sabotage the vote as possible.

Compliment returned.

[Rikae]

Nine! *facepalm*

I think I wasn't counting Lottie.

[Loslote]

++Legate

Fine by me.

[Aganzir]

Well friends don't worry!

++Legate

That being done, I'm off to do some actual wolf hunting.

(Love the song, Rikae.)

[the phantom]

Darn it you two! I was going to post "Mwu ha ha, now Rune, Mac, Lottie, and I will tie the vote to force no result- better hope for Agan to save you!" but now I can't.

Anyway, yeah, obviously it'd be kind of nice to know instead of suspect things regarding Rikae/Mac/Nog, but I do wonder if Legate is the biggest enigma overall considering Lottie's reveal on the Living Thread ("I killed him because he's the Seer!" would actually make a nice cover for losing a packmate, particularly if he placed the third packmate on his innocent list).

So no point in delaying this-

++Legate

I'm around for another hour or so before needing to step away yet again.

[the phantom]

In complete seriousness, and with the expectation of receiving an honest result, all games aside-

Lottie, did you truly kill Legate?

Mac- did you kill Rikae?

Fact is, unless other information contradicts it, we're considering both of you Wolves. Thus-

I'm thinking it might be in our mutual best interest to be up front about these kills because-
(1) It would help us ALL hypothesize the truth of the Unknown role. (For instance, if neither pack killed Legate I might have a workable theory.) Knowing this information could help both Goods and Bads attempt to impact the outcome in a way beneficial to their sides (just based on having more knowledge).
(2) It might help us catch the opposing pack. Now, you might say it could help us catch your own, but your own kill motivations are always going to be shrouded in the usual layer of bluff/double-bluff etc. thus we can't draw better conclusions about your pack than we can the other pack. So if your kill was well thought out that may give you the edge in that we'd learn more from the other pack kill than yours.

[Aganzir]

I started this thing over 24 hours ago but friends distracted me. Better late than never though!

DAY 1 and 2 opinions separated by |||
Brackets indicate a vague/changing opinion

NIGHT 2 VICTIMS

phantom suspected: Nogrod, Lottie, Mac, Firefoot
phantom found innocent: Aganzir, Boro, sally, Nilp

Rune suspected: Greenie
Rune found innocent: (Form)

**

NIGHT 3 VICTIMS

Macalaure suspected: Aganzir ||| Aganzir, (Legate,) Firefoot, Form, sally, Lottie
Macalaure found innocent: Rikae, Firefoot, Nilp, Legate, Greenie ||| Rikae, Legate morm, Eomer, Lommy, Lalaith, Mith

Rikae suspected: Lommy, Greenie, Mac, phantom ||| Greenie, Firefoot, Lottie
Rikae found innocent: ||| Agan, Mac, morm, (Firefoot)

Legate suspected: Greenie ||| Greenie, Boro, Firefoot, Lottie, Aganzir, (mentioned earlier but later put on his second-best zone: sally, McCab, Mac)
Legate found innocent: (Nog, Lommy, Form, Kath, Shasta, morm, Mith, Rune, Nerwen) ||| Nerwen, Lommy, Mith

Some things I noticed:

• Both Lottiepack and Macpack had a reason to kill phantom. Neither had a more likely reason to kill Rune than the other.
• I think it's certainly interesting that everybody who's been night killed so far (except Rune) has suspected both Lottie and Firefoot.
• On NIGHT 3, both Rikae and Legate had suspected Mac before but felt better about him later.
• It almost feels like both wolf packs wanted to frame Greenie.
• Everybody who died in the latter set found morm more or less innocent.
• Firefoot and Mac as fellows doesn't make sense but Firefoot and Lottie might. Will check later.

Anything else?

[the phantom]

Just examining posts made the morning after my death.

Originally Posted by Mac

He did suspect four people in #130: Nogrod, Loslote, Firefoot, and me.
...
But why was he killed? Just because he looked innocent (many argued with him, but I don't recall anyone suspecting him) and made himself the village leader? Possible. Or maybe there is in fact a wolf (or even two? wishful thinking) among his four suspects. Did Nogrod's mates take revenge? Did wolf-Lottie or wolf-Firefoot get nervous? Possible, but it doesn't seem likely.

Hmmm... That's quite interesting if Mac is in fact a Wolf (and one of the ones that killed me). If Firefoot is a Wolf (as Lottie claims) Mac seems willing to set her up, and Ff certainly seemed to start that day ready to gun back at Mac.

Later Sally concludes that the Rune kill was an attempt to kill a rival Wolf. Morm thanks that's weird because surely the Wolves would try and kill the Seer.

Then Lottie-Wolf steps in-

Originally Posted by Lottie

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?

So here we have a Wolf being quite truthful (probably) about her own Wolf kill, as often happens.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Anyway, in hindsight, I think it quite likely the phantom was an ordo and thus had no qualms about painting a target on his own back (as Boro phrased it) because he's a staunch supporter of ordos sacrificing themselves for the gifted, and I think he might have also been curious about the opportunity to seize control of the dead thread.

Rune, then, was notably short-tempered yesterDay. I agree with Rikae that this could have been read as a sign of a nervous gifted, and indeed knowing Rune I think it's possible he was. Then again he is quite grumpy by nature and the overwhelming rules hardly seemed to make him happy.

This makes her look rather good, as she doesn't give the official reasoning for killing Rune, and she doesn't seem like she would've wanted to kill me.

Originally Posted by Legate

So, basic ideas: the phantom would simply be killed because. just because. I mean, I sincerely doubt the WWs would have killed him just because he told them to do so. Who would!!! But, if tp is not a member of your pack, you probably consider him dangerous whichever the case. Imagine. If he is a Seer, you want him dead, if he is a Wolf of the opposite pack, you totally want him dead as well. And in fact, with the "kill me" encouragement, the WWs might have thought him a Hunter and wanted to get rid of him early on (especially if they felt safe from him??? Anyway, I think this is already a stretch, but simply put, there are like a million reasons to kill the Phantom).

Nice response here- very inconclusive. Provides a reason, but not just the "right" one. But insisting on denying the idea that I was killed because I wanted to be killed- that's the bit that makes him look a little suspicious (almost as if he's an offended Wolf). But not terribly suspicious.

Originally Posted by Legate

Speaking of that, given that there was the possibility that both packs might have targeted tp if he was innocent - I mean, really! Look at it, and he actually was targeted by one pack, and I think we are clear on that there are plenty of reasons to want to kill him, so the other pack might have considered it as well, and it simply didn't for some reason. - anyway, given that possibility, I would consider tp being part of one of the packs.

Here he expresses surprise that both packs didn't target me (and I admit I was certainly rooting for it due to the possibility of wasting a kill). But would a Wolf say this? In other words, "I can't believe the other pack didn't do this. Thank goodness we didn't depend on them for it." But that's a stretch. If he's a Wolf he's nicely mimicking the innocent sound. We'll know for certain soon enough.

Originally Posted by Boro

I've played a lot more with the phantom, and I think I'm one of the best when it comes to knowing his playing habits. When he wants to paint a target on his back, he will, and that's pretty much what he did. When he's an ordo, if he thinks he knows who is gifted he'll hang a large "KILL ME" sign and in that way try to protect the gifteds from the wolf-kill. That's pretty much what happened yesterday. Although, wolf is possible, because he would be a target for a rival pack as well, and we can't rule out that possibility completely.

This probably makes it very unlikely that Boro would be in Mac's pack, as he would've argued against my killing.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by phantom

Mac- did you kill Rikae?

Your mom killed Rikae.


I'm thinking about being productive and giving my thoughts about who Lottie's fellows and who the other three wolves might be, but since you guys wouldn't take it at face value anyway, what's the point. Worse, you would probably try to turn it all upside down for any hint of who "my packmates" are.

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal?

[Rikae]

Oooh! I know! Maybe the special role can commit suicide and be resurrected, but do nothing else.

And maybe that is me.

And maybe Nerwen & Lottie really are the lovers and it was all a scheme to get Lottie lynched. And now my ability is redundant.

Yup.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Your mom killed Rikae.


I'm thinking about being productive and giving my thoughts about who Lottie's fellows and who the other three wolves might be, but since you guys wouldn't take it at face value anyway, what's the point. Worse, you would probably try to turn it all upside down for any hint of who "my packmates" are.

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal?

If you were innocent, we would probably find out eventually from Nerwen or the seer, so why not go ahead and make your contribution?

All of our work here will only be appreciated posthumously, anyway.

[the phantom]

I'm with you so far, Rikae. So then what on earth was Sally up to if Lottie-Nerwen are together?

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm thinking about being productive

Your mom is thinking about being productive.

Originally Posted by Mac

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal?

Well then. I will agree to it as an experiment if you agree to include an explanation(s) of Nerwen's PM dream as part of the package.

[the phantom]

Also, has it already been noted that Lottie's plea to her pack and the village to kill Firefoot may have been cover for someone in her own pack? Telling her own pack (Firefoot) obviously wouldn't make her kill herself, and if the village tries it FF can just tell them not to be silly and do what Lottie wanted them to do, since obviously Lottie can't be trusted. Just saying.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by the phantom

In complete seriousness, and with the expectation of receiving an honest result, all games aside-

Lottie, did you truly kill Legate?

Mac- did you kill Rikae?

Well, but I can be lazy and make you lot work harder by analyzing all possible combinations. I can still get the same amount of information about the other pack without potentially exposing my own packmates. If you guys stumble upon something, I will confirm whether or not it was the correct scenario and whether or not you've actually caught a wolf. Have fun.

Originally Posted by the phantom

So here we have a Wolf being quite truthful (probably) about her own Wolf kill, as often happens.

Hilariously, I wasn't at all truthful about my own kill. I will offer you two scenarios, and I do solemnly swear that one of them is true.

1. My pack did not kill Rune. I simply found morm's reaction to Sally's suggestion suspicious.

2. My pack did kill Rune, but not primarily because we thought he was a wolf. We did think he might have been Gifted.

Like I said, one of these two scenarios is the truth. You may choose which you think is more likely.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Oooh! I know! Maybe the special role can commit suicide and be resurrected, but do nothing else.

And maybe that is me.

And maybe Nerwen & Lottie really are the lovers and it was all a scheme to get Lottie lynched. And now my ability is redundant.

Yup.

Seriously? But we worked so hard.