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Old 03-01-2008, 09:22 AM   #321
Rikae
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo View Post
I was distracted by an ordered trip to the shop, but now I've went through Durelin.

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.
That's funny, you call her innocent for exactly the reasons I would call someone a wolf. In fact, the above could be turned into a good argument for lynching Durelin if you just changed the "I would like to think of her as Innocent" bit.
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Old 03-01-2008, 09:24 AM   #322
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Note: I have come to dislike summaries, because you can never fully trust them and see the whole picture.

Nerwen, the feels too easy person.
I've rethought her toDay's posts. Her decision that Lommy is Innocent looks like decided during the Night before the summary/analysis. At first I wanted to agree, but something feels foul now.
Not to forget that the two Days before were very smoothly (although this can apply to Durelin too, but to a lesser extent).
I'm quite ready to call her a Wolf - the thing that bothers me however is how quick Mac and Nogrod were to agree about her. Maybe others too, I think I'll check that next.
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Old 03-01-2008, 09:27 AM   #323
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
That's funny, you call her innocent for exactly the reasons I would call someone a wolf. In fact, the above could be turned into a good argument for lynching Durelin if you just changed the "I would like to think of her as Innocent" bit.
I am aware of that. I would like to think of her as Innocent. I'm not fully convinced though.
If she's a Wolf, the kills have been to her favour.

What do you, Rikae, think about her?

What are your, Durelin, conclusions at the moment? (I hope she comes soon.)
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Old 03-01-2008, 10:00 AM   #324
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo View Post
What do you, Rikae, think about her?
I think she's creepy and wolfy and has been so for a while.
Actually, although I voted for Mac, I think lynching Durelin toDay could also be a good idea... although we'd probably learn more by lynching Mac.
I'm not sure about the likelyhood of them being wolves together, though. I'll have to go back and look at their interactions more closely...
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Old 03-01-2008, 10:03 AM   #325
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Sorry to be dense but who is Lily?
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Old 03-01-2008, 10:06 AM   #326
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Thoughts on Nerwen by others.

Day1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
In this vein, my first reaction to Nerwen's post was "wolf!" but I think it might be wise to try to look beyond what is apparently a bias on my part. If anyone's interested, it was the structure of her post -- banter, followed by a rather off-the-wall bit of wolf-strategy-theory, followed by a defense. Too people-pleasing, I thought, too cautious.

However, although that was my first reaction, I'm aware I have a tendency to always find Nerwen suspicious (and Durelin, and Aganzir... just laying my cards on the table), so, on second glance...
Rikae finds Nerwen's first post suspicious, is uncertain and wary of Nerwen, later says that Nerwen is always suspicious to her.

Lommy, Mac and Lily find Nerwen Innocent (in that order) without appearant reason. (In the same contexts Lommy also thinks of Boro and Sally as Innocent; Lily thinks Rikae, later Sally and Lommy.)
However:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
Nerwen I used to think innocent, but her post about McCaber doesn't look good, very hasty actually. But then, a wolf might like to give her posts a more polished look.
Nogrod states that Nerwen's analyses are very roundabout. Is later uneasy about her, also about Volo, McCaber, The Ka and LG.

Durelin can't read Nerwen.


Conclusion:
Nerwen doesn't jump out, is regarded quite Innocent.
I find Lommy's and Lily's trust rather too quick, possible Wolf connection.


I'll post this and move to Day2, in a shortend version, because time is running out.

I feel that there's something nasty about lynching Mac. More and more I feel like he's being framed.
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Old 03-01-2008, 10:06 AM   #327
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mithalwen View Post
Sorry to be dense but who is Lily?
A Little Green has many names. That's one of them, devised by Mac.
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Old 03-01-2008, 10:08 AM   #328
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Thanks Volo....
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Old 03-01-2008, 10:10 AM   #329
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo View Post
I was distracted by an ordered trip to the shop, but now I've went through Durelin.

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.
Look, I said before that there's nothing much to go on with her– it's more of a general bad feeling she's giving me, as if she's making sure she never says anything definite. I don't know.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo View Post
Note: I have come to dislike summaries, because you can never fully trust them and see the whole picture.

Nerwen, the feels too easy person.
I've rethought her toDay's posts. Her decision that Lommy is Innocent looks like decided during the Night before the summary/analysis.
I have no idea what to say to that, Volo, except that it wasn't.
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Old 03-01-2008, 10:27 AM   #330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo View Post
Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.
Being right when looking backwards to people's votes, arguments and "hunches" isn't actually a sign of an innocent. Remember that the wolves can be right 100% if they wish - and the situation allows them to do it. When a wolf "gets something wrong" it's always deliberate but innocents need to guess and argue on premises they're not sure if they are correct with interpretations they can't be sure.

I know this is a bad argument gamewise but as I'm still thinking Mac as one of my top suspects to be one of the wolves the fact that Rikae - whom I feel to be more innocentish than wolfy - goes for him that determinedly with her guts and feelings kind of assures me about it. There is something like a very real sense in which one could say those two should be able to feel or see when the other is bluffing more than with some of us others - like how I feel Lommy to be quite innocentish now as she's my daughter and I see her acting just soo Lommyishly...

Looking at other candidates then as well.

If Nerwen indeed is a wolf her earlier declaration of Mac's innocence (alongside with Rikae and Lommy) would be wise tactic (at least if Rikae and Lommy actually are innocents) and her latest very easy "reconsideration" of his innocence would be a forced reaction as she clearly sees she has no believable way to protect her mate any more. All this surely presupposes Mac's guilt.

Of others I'm still a bit uneasy - or at least a bit confused - with Volo as he both turns up in all those "cross-listings" of mine (Gwathwagon and "let's not lynch Boro" - btw. alongside Mac) and because of his marked going to and fro with the two aforementioned. He says that he thought Nerwen wolfy yesterDay but not toDay (did he say he thought Nerwen was suspicios to him in the first place?) but then again turns a round in his latest posts, he agrees Mac felt bad yesterDay but yet turns it around as well.

The one also popping up in my "cross-listings" in both categories is Mith with whom I'm in total darkness right now. I mean it just doesn't make sense if there isn't at least one wolf in the "Gwathwagon" and "No-Boro"-lynch. Now Mac is there with two hits - and the others are Volo and Mith. I'd say one of them is a wolf and am inclined to vote Mac toDay for reasons stated above and earlier.

Okay. I need to go and continue in the kitchen... but I will be back later.

EDIT: X'd with everything the last half an hour (beginning from Rikae)
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Old 03-01-2008, 10:28 AM   #331
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Nerwen, Day2

Rikae is the first to mention Nerwen (except for Ka, but Ka's post was irrelevent). She finds Nerwen less and less sincere.

Mac finds her Innocent enough, although less so after Volo's #206.

Lommy thinks of Nerwen as the only Innocentish person.

Lily finds Nerwen and Ka Innocent.

Volo suspects Nerwen, reasons.

Durelin finds Nerwen's vote for Volo too easy, as Menel's vote for McCaber.

Nogrod: "I never seem to be able to suspect her but after Volo's point about her over-carefulness I'd say she needs to be looked at."


Conclusion: Lommy and Lily find her Innocent. Rikae continues suspecting her. Durelin is wary. Volo suspects, Nogrod and Mac become wary.
I'm trying to find out Nerwen's possible contacts to others and if she is being framed. I can't say that I'm making much progress - I said summaries aren't too useful .
Lommy and Lily look most suspicious out of these.

On to Day3 - the whole picture might show something.


EDIT: Xd with Nogrod
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Old 03-01-2008, 10:39 AM   #332
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In case I can't get back (I may be able to but the library slinging me off in a few minutes) I am going to vote then explain based on my rereading of the first days and hoping Rikae's instincts are right.

++ Macalaure

sorry son.....
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Old 03-01-2008, 10:42 AM   #333
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Reasons in brief:

Nerwen pointed out that gifteds can be useful. While I know it should make the ordos work I wonder if there was an element of gloating on page one. Nogrod and Mac seemed particularly happy about it . Both would be likely early dream choices had we a seer.

Mac raised suspicion of Nog after he had posted once. Not a bad wolf trick since it is seldom impossible to make Nogrod look suspicious. tbc if possible
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Old 03-01-2008, 10:44 AM   #334
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Day3

Durlin finds Nerwen's and Lommy's votes too easy.

Nogrod analyses her.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
So looking at Nerwen kind of makes me uneasy. She's too careful to my taste and trailing the suspicions others have made as I know she can make cases herself. She has talked about busy scheduals and I'm quite ready to believe in that sort of thing but somehow she looks a bit too careful.

If that's enough to lynch her...?

Well she at least moves up a noch upwards on my suspicion-list...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil View Post
Here we go again. Nerwen is trying to "suspect" Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. Notice how she mentions some "strange edginess" and doesn't explain, but tries to shut down the more valid criticisms of him?
I don't quite understand this, I'll (finally) go through Menel after I've had dinner.

Volo suspects her and makes a big deal with going through this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
If Nerwen indeed is a wolf her earlier declaration of Mac's innocence (alongside with Rikae and Lommy) would be wise tactic (at least if Rikae and Lommy actually are innocents) and her latest very easy "reconsideration" of his innocence would be a forced reaction as she clearly sees she has no believable way to protect her mate any more. All this surely presupposes Mac's guilt.
Links Nerwen's possible guilt with Mac's. You know, I'm beginning to suspect Nogrod a bit, he has been hiding a lot of his thoughts it seems and agreeing with people only after they have posted first. If Mac is lynched and is Innocent, I would make a connection between Nerwen and Nogrod.


Final conclution after dinner, before Menel.


EDIT: Xd with Mith.
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Old 03-01-2008, 10:46 AM   #335
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mithalwen View Post
Reasons in brief:

Nerwen pointed out that gifteds can be useful. While I know it should make the ordos work I wonder if there was an element of gloating on page one. Nogrod and Mac seemed particularly happy about it . Both would be likely early dream choices had we a seer.

Mac raised suspicion of Nog after he had posted once. Not a bad wolf trick since it is seldom impossible to make Nogrod look suspicious. tbc if possible
Quite interesting. I'll leave this for tomorrow - not enough time for me to see to it toDay.
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Old 03-01-2008, 10:57 AM   #336
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Little question here, Volo. You find me suspicious for being careful– but Durelin innocent for the same reason? Huh?

Volo suspected me after I voted him yesterDay. Then toDay, after I said I was less sure he was gulity, and after I mildly defended Mac, he backed off.

Then just recently he again finds me wolfish– after I voiced suspicions of Mac and Durelin.

Is a Durelin-Volo-Mac trio possible? (Although that lets out Nogrod and Menel, and I feel one or both of them may have been trying to frame me toDay.)
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Old 03-01-2008, 11:05 AM   #337
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Quick post before I continue Macalysis...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
#139. (I think answering Nogrod, who says we should look at Volo and McCaber): “What?”
Actually I was commenting the overall paranoia.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
What I find extremely suspicious about this bit, is how conscious you are about your way of playing. You seem to be convinced that you're playing precisely like you always play and, whether this is true or not, an ordo wouldn't be aware of it. An ordo usually automatically falls into his/her common style of play, but not intentionally. Only wolves, and maybe gifteds occasionally, do that.
Agreed. I'm aware of my playing style. Why? I don't know. I could give you a list of rather insignificant reasons (like "I was a wolf in the last game and now I'm enjoying the plain craziness of being an ordo" or "people accused me based on my playing style very early on so I had to pay attention to it") but I doubt you'd buy it because even I don't totally believe those are the reasons why.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
Oh, for crying out loud... I have never seen anybody, including you (who claims to play like she always does!), fish for pity like that. If you really wrote these lines honestly, then I'm honestly sorry for being so incompassionate, but I highly, highly doubt it.
I was not fishing for pity. I don't think I need pity. I don't suffer from being confused. I might sound careless but I actually partly enjoy being confused, especially now as I'm beginning to be what a certain person is hiding so I'm not confused about everything. Lastly, I was just pointing out the thing that seemed like a difference between the four of you and myself. If I actually was drowning in self-pity, I would not compare myself with ww masterminds like you at all...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
If you were innocent, yes. But you aren't. You're vaguely pointing in the directions of people you'd like to get rid of, hoping the ordos bite on it and make the strong cases by themselves.
I'm sometimes concerned on how stupid you must think I am.... Also, I hope I don't really give an impression to be like that because I consider myself a pretty straightforward person and if I'd want to get rid of somebody I'd build the cases myself, trust me. Now, I'm off to comment on some actions of yours... *whistles in a carefree manner*

Seriously, yes, I'm going to complete my analysis now but I'm afraid it will end up rather biased because Macalaure screams a wolf to me. His points against me are weak and it looks like he's just demonstarting to me that he actually dares to attack and vote me unlike I claimed. I think it's very improbable that I'll end up voting anyone else but I'll just complete the analysis for the sake of being just and finishing things I've started. Maybe I'll even be surprised...

Oh, and as a parting shot i'd like to say that Mr Volo is giving me headache with being totally confusing... but I suspect him less than I used to.

edit: xed with Nerwen
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Old 03-01-2008, 11:09 AM   #338
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Ironically, the fact that Nerwen seems to find no fault with Lommy at all makes me feel better about her. Any wolf would have sown at least some suspicion into it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo
Note: I have come to dislike summaries, because you can never fully trust them and see the whole picture.
Summaries are an utter waste of time to do or read - as long as they don't contain analysis. I've come to think that analyses tell you very little about the analysed person, but a lot about the analyser him/herself. It's not easy to fake an entire analysis without letting your fangs shine through. I'm eagerly awaiting Lommy's analysis of me for that reason.

It's good to see some people suspect Durelin. And at least Volo has an open eye for Lommy and Lily. Maybe it's just me, but I don't see why everybody else is so quick to say Lommy is just Lommy. Apart from other suspicious things she did, she's been telling people she's playing the way she always does at least five times or so! A wolf wouldn't do that, you say? Please tell me why an ordo would! Once or twice I wouldn't call suspicious, but that often? Come on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod
I know this is a bad argument gamewise but as I'm still thinking Mac as one of my top suspects to be one of the wolves the fact that Rikae - whom I feel to be more innocentish than wolfy - goes for him that determinedly with her guts and feelings kind of assures me about it. There is something like a very real sense in which one could say those two should be able to feel or see when the other is bluffing more than with some of us others - like how I feel Lommy to be quite innocentish now as she's my daughter and I see her acting just soo Lommyishly...
I don't mean to be rude, but I fear Rikae thinks higher of her ability to read me than is warranted. I agree that her behaviour feels innocent, but I'm not entirely certain. She fooled me before. Nogrod, I hope this is not too personal, but are sure you're not overestimating your ability to read Lommy, too?

Btw, I think it's unwise of you to let Durelin and Lily drop off your radar.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod
I mean it just doesn't make sense if there isn't at least one wolf in the "Gwathwagon" and "No-Boro"-lynch.
I heard my father tell a tale of the time when he was insignificantly younger than I am now. It taught me never to underestimate the confusability of ordos.

I'm sorry, but I have to say that, now looking at Mith's reasons for her vote, I think I haven't received so many bad-reasoned votes in over 15 villages than in this one here.
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Old 03-01-2008, 11:19 AM   #339
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Damn.... Lommy's last post actually sounds convincingly innocent. I hope her analysis of me will be really ugly and contrived, otherwise I might have to humble myself and take my suspicion back. I had a feeling it might be a bad idea to vote you so early. Why did you dare me to act on my suspicion just before?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
I'm sometimes concerned on how stupid you must think I am....
I'm very sorry if I appear like I do that, because I honestly don't. If I would've thought that plan to be a stupid one, I wouldn't have suspected you to have planned it.
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Old 03-01-2008, 11:24 AM   #340
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
I had a feeling it might be a bad idea to vote you so early.
Well, then, why did you do it?

I don't know what to think now. After your last couple of posts you're starting to look less guilty... but I really don't think Lommy's a wolf.
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Old 03-01-2008, 11:24 AM   #341
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Mac and Durelin analysis (My RL fiance and in-game spouse. Traitors...)


---- Day 1 ----
Durelin's post #37:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Durelin
Just seems Nogrod and Boro and Mac and...who else in this game likes all that analyizing stuff?...haven't gotten quite warmed up yet for anything too lengthy, anyway,
Quote:
Macalaure did rather jump on her, but he's just as young and hasty.
Okay, so she mentions Mac in connection with two other people, grouping them together but not in an accusatory context, then does one of these “accuse/absolve” things with Mac. So far, so... bad.

-- no mention of each other for a while, until Durelin's post #82:
Quote:
I agree Gwathagor and Mac have been a little...defensive? It's really okay, Mac, I was just looking for something to say.
Then she says that Rikae, Menel and Sally worry her the most.

This is interesting, because although she is agreeing with a suspicion of Mac, she lumps him together with Gwath (rather dismissive – she isn't focusing attention on either) and then ignores him. It could definitely be a wolf acknowledging, but subtly downgrading, suspicions towards a packmate.

Mac in post 104:
Quote:
Rikae looks innocentish. So do Lily and Durelin.

Whoa... alarm bells. Very dismissive, off hand... and could definitely be a case of hiding a fellow wolf in a group. He doesn't even bother to say “Rikae, Lily and Durelin look innocent” -- he singles me out, then tacks them on, making them seem even less noticable. I don't like it.

Dury's post 113:
Quote:
Mac's last post seems sensible - a little hesitant, but we all are on Day 1

That could come from the textbook on “How to mention your packmates”

Dury's post 133, after voting for McCaber:
Quote:
I do want to know what's up with Macalaure and Boro, though. As Lommy just pointed out about Mac's last post, both of them seem to be posting about themselves a lot
Again the combo rather than direct focus on Mac. In fact, it could almost be seen as a warning “hey! Mac! What are you thinking? You're talking about yourself too much!”

----- Day 2 -----


Mac's post 152:
Quote:
I feel good / a little better about the people who have suspected Sally yesterDay (Nogrod, Durelin, Rikae), because to them she could have served as a future lynch candidate.

Looks innocent enough, but now I have to wonder if this came up in the nightly discussion – Durelin pointing out that Sally might make a good lynch candidate, before the pack eventually decided to kill her. Still, it could just as well be solely the product of Mac's own reasoning. At any rate, he lets Dury off the hook.

Mac's post 165:
Quote:
Durelin and Nogrod start the counter-waggon, which is innocent-looking.

Durelin's post 176:
Quote:
Mac also bothers me. He could have just voted for Lommy if he really wanted to make a statement, instead of just off-handedly wishing she was a lynch-candidate. But that would stand out more.

(Nothing I can see in the above two posts either supports or works against the possibility of them being wolves together)

Mac's post 183:
Quote:
Of Durelin I'm not sure.

This shift comes after Durelin has said Mac “bothers” her, and Rikae and Lommy have voiced some suspicion of Durelin. Not sure what to make of that.

Durelin's post 213:
Quote:
Hmm...Mac is still posting defenses of himself and Boro is convinced the wolves are setting him up, messing with his mind. Yes, both have gotten quite a bit of attention, but they seem to be harping on it a bit...but I don't know if that's particularly wolfish or not. Overly defensive? Maybe. Trying too much to look like they're shrugging it off? Maybe.

Wishy-washy and I could see it coming from a wolf...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Durelin
He is a little defensive, but not wanting to die isn't necessarily a sinister desire. And he's not he only one into himself.

Now, this is kind of fishy (mostly because an ordo really shouldn't be too worried about dying)
She also says Mac gives her a creepy feeling, but also says the same thing about Nogrod, Rikae, and Lommy.
Dury's post 214:
Quote:
Ah, I just realized - my "similar bad feelings about Mac" statement means that I have similar bad feelings about Mac as A Little Green does, not about Little Green...make sense? Maybe? Oh well.

I wonder whether a wolf would draw further attention to her companion with this correction. Maybe she would if she already decided he was doomed, and wanted to be sure her suspicions of him were clearly on the record, though. I don't know.

Mac's post 220:
Quote:
This leaves Durelin (who I have no idea about), Boro, Menel and Lommy.

Like in 183, he seems to be singling Durelin out for a special level of confusing-ness. This is odd, considering he called her innocentish at the beginning of the day and gave no reason for the change... it looks overly cautious, but Mac should know better as wolf.

Durelin's post 226:
Quote:
++Macalaure

Of the random voters for Gwathagor he worries me the most. Of course I don't feel good voting for the same person as Boro, but I can't say I trust any of you sneaky lot, so what's the use spending another 40ish minutes on this...

Odd... don't know what else to say about it. It seems as if she's saying “don't take this too seriously”... if they were wolves together, at this point, it would be hard to tell whether Mac were really in danger of lynching or not... it would be a bold move.


--- Day 3 ---


Mac's post 276:
Quote:
4. Durelin for meee!
Maybe others need to judge whether her reasoning was good or not. To me, it's bad, but I feel like I'm biased. The vote placement isn't worrying, I think.

Hmm, why not say it's bad and why it's bad?

Durelin's post 279:
Quote:
First up, a random thought... I suggest that perhaps one of Rikae and Mac is a wolf. At different times they each seem to be trying to buddy-up to the other, which would obviously give the wolf of the pair a pretty strong ally. I hope that I'm not playing dirty here...I really don't mean to...it's just a game, but...these things do come into play. (I made Cailin a wolf and Eomer an innocent in the game I modded and apparently Eomer had promised that he was not to ever vote for her...not that something like that necessarily applies at all!)

---- Off topic comment: Mac and I have no such agreement (obviously). The only agreement we have with relation to WW is not to discuss it outside the game (although it's true neither of us would be eager to lynch the other on Day 1 or, as a wolf, kill the other on Night 1)---

At any rate, an interesting way of casting suspicion on Mac but also not (she doesn't suggest, after all, that we're wolves *together*)

Mac's post 282:
Quote:
Lommy flipflops about him like only Lommy can. It doesn't leave me with a good feeling. Durelin is also overly indecisive on Boro.

Strange. First off, he seems to say Lommy is suspicious for Lommyish behavior... secondly, here's another one of those “oh, and Durelin too” things.

Mac's post 283:
Quote:
Durelin goes into a similar direction. I haven't been buddying up to Rikae. I think she's innocent, but that's all I said. Rikae doesn't seem to be sure what to do with me, defending me at one time and accusing me at another. The latter makes no sense if she wanted to buddy up to me.

Self defense, no counterattack.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
You agree with Rikae and me about Lily, but you think our cases make no sense? Then I suspect you have a case of your own that makes more sense? Share it, please.

Durelin, you made a mistake, now fix it before anybody else notices ”?

Durelin's post 299:
Quote:
Mac - You caught me being sloppy twice. I didn't explain my whole 'buddying up' thing very well, and really that's a pretty bad name for it. Part of what I thought was so odd was how back and forth Rikae was about you, either defending you and jumping on Little Green's vote against you, or calling you a wolf. Huh, I guess looking back it was more Rikae who made you two seem odd in that way than you

“Ooops, thanks for pointing that out, comrade. I'll just take the opportunity to move suspicion away from you now...”?

Mac's post 305:
Quote:
I might be becoming too confident in my suspicion, Durelin, but your explanations don't sound too convincing. You say Lily is skating by neatly, which is very vague. Her placement should be considered but shouldn't make her a top suspect suddenly? Now really, what does that mean? You have somebody skating by, then you find something that you admit is suspicious, and you say it isn't that bad? That's an accusation and a defense within only one half of a sentence. By the way, it's the reasoning of her votes that makes her suspicious to me, not the placement. My apologies if you're innocent and honest about this, but you're also all of a sudden being suspiciously nice to me in your last post.

Actually, the above looks sincere and innocentish to me. The last sentence is slightly eyebrow-raising, though...


Mac's post 312:
Quote:
However, I'm sure nearly beyond doubt that Lommy, Durelin, and Lily are our wolves. This makes me less afraid of being lynched myself, because in that case you will have the benefit of knowing this opinion is honest.

This also looks fairly honest, which raises my doubts about Mac being a wolf. However, if he is a wolf, putting a fellow wolf on his top suspects list at this point would be the thing to do, anyway.

EDIT: Quote tags! Where did they go?
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Old 03-01-2008, 11:35 AM   #342
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Drat! I deleted my post by mistake!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
Is a Durelin-Volo-Mac trio possible? (Although that lets out Nogrod and Menel, and I feel one or both of them may have been trying to frame me toDay.)
It is possible, yet no more than that.

Since you mention it, I think Mac's death would reveal the most toDay, but I'm afraid he's being framed. I have a feeling that everybody is happy to lynch him, which means that either he is Innocent or his partners have decided to abandon him - probably toDay.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
Mr Volo is giving me headache with being totally confusing...
Oh, come on, quit it.


Anyway:

Nogrod - Feels reluctant to suspect Nerwen fully, although he has been agreeing that she is too careful.
Rikae - The first to suspect Nerwen. Although somehow feels very undecisive.
Durelin - On Day1 says that she can't read Nerwen, on Days 2 and 3 she thinks that Nerwen's vote for Volo was too safe. Doesn't suspect her.
Mithalwen - Never even mentioned Nerwen - suspicious. Or is it what she does usually?
Macalaure - Finds her Innocent at first, but less so after #206. Quite suspicious, a sign of partnership?
Meneltarmacil - One comment, which I don't really understand.
Volo - Strong suspicion most of the time since Day2. Undecisive.
Thinlómien - Has regarded Nerwen Innocent from the very beginning, without much reason. Not a very safe thing to do.
A Little Green - Same as Lommy.


It's possible that I'm barking up the wrong tree as everybody is quite undecisive about Nerwen. Possible partnership with just about everybody.
Ok, Mac is the target of toDay's discussion - I'll move on to him after Menel, and a sauna. *sigh*


Xd with everything since #338.
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Old 03-01-2008, 11:39 AM   #343
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To my best, I'll try to be objective and not to let the fact that I suspect Macalaure interfere. The cost of this is that - I predict - you have to bear with my flip-floppiness.

Now, let's begin


Day1

#14 The odd comment: "Sadly, this means that the innocent side, having me on their team, is severely handicapped." I still think there's something wrong with it. Casts suspicion on Nogrod, banters with Gwath. Nothing sinister in there, I think. You have to start suspicions early in order to get the game rolling.

#24 Replies to Lommy: answers her questions and returns her suspicions. Says she's too quick to accuse. Now this is rather weird. He's perfectly alright with throwing half-hearted Day1-suspicions at Nogrod, but when someone throws them at him, he says the person is too quick to accuse. Quite fishy, unless his accusation of Nogrod was really serious. Which would be quite fishy too, based on just one post.

#63 The infamous over-reacting statement: "A couple of hours into the game, and already everybody is talking about me..." Replies to Menel and says he mentioned Nogrod's suspicious behaviour because it was the only suspicious thing he could see at that point. Emphasises he didn't make a big deal out of it. Corrects Ka's quote. Agrees with Nerwen about THE Ka posting a lot with little substance. Banters with Rikae, says Nerwen strikes him as innocentish. Nothing wrong here in this post, except the beginning that - I think - has been discussed enough.

#92 Just says he's there and off to reread and nothing caught his eye this far.

#104 Says Boro seems innocent except he's a tad too authoritative and corrects him on the issue of Greenie's gender. Doesn't like Gwath's vote and thinks Boro has a point against him. "I used to agree with Boro on Menel - until I saw his vote. It looks to much like "let's start a bandwaggon against a widely suspected villager". But I guess I'm still overestimating the amount of attention given to me." Can't get a read on Sally, Volo and THE Ka. Has unspecific bad feelings about Lommy and Nogrod. On Nogrod: "I don't understand why I'm so suspicious to him, but I find the eagerness with which he pursues this suspicion worrisome." Flip-flops on Nerwen. Finds Rikae, Greenie and Dury innocentish, calls Mith and McCaber enigmas. Nothing actually wrong in here. But there's an eerie defensive feel in this post that I can't explain. Granted, an innocent might be a bit defensive when faced with the amount of suspicion there was against Mac at this point but a) there was not that much suspicion and b) Mac seems to try to hide his nervousness/defensiveness, which looks quite wolves. Now you may think I'm grasping at straws here or making mountains out of molehills but that's just the feeling I get.

#118 Answers Nogrod's accuations of him and suspects him in return. Now, I don't think retaliatory suspicion like this is necessary wolvish, on the contrary. Also, some of his posts are quite good. But why to post this 10 minutes before the deadline and start with "I don't expect he's going to be lynched today, but here's a bit about Nogrod", when it obviously was more about him himself?

#129 Posts a vote tally. Would like to give Gwath another Day but would not like to see Boro go either and says he has no idea for a last-minute counter-wagon. (Situation was Gwath 4, Boro 2, Mac 1.) Doesn't like the Day's voting. Nothing wrong in here, I think, except possibly the fact that he had suspected Gwath earlier. But I actually acted the same way towards McCaber the next Day, so it is not necessarily sinister.

#140 Votes Gwath, although he'd prefer voting Lommy. Since Gwath was to die anyway, why not to vote me and make an actual statement of it?

#142 "Where did the Caber-waggon come from?" An interesting question.


Day2

#152 Is surprised of sally's death. Summarises what sally did on day1. Also summarises other people's stances towards her. Says sally's death was probably in order not to leave tracks and it points towards careful wolves. Aks if the wolves are careful because they ahve been under a lot of pressure or because they are cold-blooded. Now this looks quite innocent, given that Mac himself was under pressure the Day before. "What I don't understand is: Why pick a no-trailer who causes confusion when other, less confusing, no-trailers are there to choose from. Maybe they thought her death would cause sufficient confusion, more than anybody else's death." "Both Boro voters are dead now. Does this point towards him being a wolf? I don’t think so." Is not sure of what to make of Boro's certainity about sally's innocence. "I feel good / a little better about the people who have suspected Sally yesterDay (Nogrod, Durelin, Rikae), because to them she could have served as a future lynch candidate. I also think better of THE Ka, because she said she enjoyed Sally's posts and it would be cold-blooded indeed to kill her after that." Ok, the first point is valid while the second is not, like I already said earlier. If Mac's a wolf, I'd consider looking at Dury, Noggie and Rikae, that would be a convenient way for a fellow wolf to make them look better without being easily tracked.

#155 Jokes to Mith. I'd actually like to think him innocent simply because I laughed so much at this post.

#165 Analyses votes: mildly defends Rikae's vote, says Menel's and McCaber's are suspicious, Boro's and Greenie's neutral, Volo's confused, Dury's and Nog's innocent, Mith's would be bad if Boro was a wolf and Lommy's a "risky vote for a wolf if the Caberwaggon would have succeeded. A smart vote for a wolf in case she reckoned that it wouldn't." Nothing odd here, I guess, except the last phrase spotted by Greenie. Like I and Rikae have said, it indeed could be that he knew that McC was innocent and slipped here. I'm not too sure anyway...

#169 Speculates about Mith's relation to Boro. Concludes "There's the possibility that you're evil and trying to get the trust of Bordomir, but I think there are better leads to follow at the moment." I see nothing bad here, but neither it is particularily innocentish.

#183 Summarises his feelings about people, says he's quite confused. Innocentish: Rikae, Nerwen, THE Ka, Little Green, puzzled/no idea: Durelin, Mith, Volo, Lommy, vague bad feelings: Nog, Boro, Menel is his would-be-main-suspect " but there's something telling me I'm getting something wrong there." His indecidedness in this post was the main reason of me thinking him innocent at one phase. Clearly a wolf would make up some suspicions as people who don't say anything on anybody are often accused of wolfishness. But I wouldn't put it past Mac that he was double-bluffing... "Maybe it's because we don't have a seer that nobody is acting really nervous. Maybe the benefit of the seer is not only in his actual dreams, but also in the pressure he puts on the wolves indirectly." Good observation.

#209 Explains his words about my vote for McCab. In my opinion, he does it convincingly, just like I predicted he would. Also explains why he did not vote me although he'd have preferred that. Nothing bad in here.

#220 Talks about people, ends up stating almost everybody looks more or less innocent except Boro, Lommy and Menel. Now this I find quite wolvish... How can he feel so good about everybody?

#234 "What I don't like about voting Boro, is his edginess. The Borowolves I remember all "looked fairer". His actions today look quite bad, but I feel like buying his frustration. I actually happen to share it." Actually, looks quite innocent.

#238 Posts a vote tally, does not like the way it's going (Mac 2, Volo 2, Caber 1, Boro 1, Rikae 1). Of course he doesn't because he's in danger of getting lynched...

#242 "*takes A Little Green off his list of innocents*" Yes, her vote was A Little Fishy.

#246 "What really makes me feel bad about those who are voting me, is that not one of them has a good reason behind it." If we can take Rikae's word of it (which I'm inclined to do because it fits my picture of how Mac is), this looks quite wolvish. Whatever the case, it doesn't look particularily innocentish anyway.

#250 "I feel better about McCaber than I feel about Boro, but an innocent Boro would be a graver loss than an innocent McCaber (no offense )." Now, making way for the caberwagon... I don't like this...

#252 (In response to Rikae calling his statement in #246 wolvish) "How so? I just want to make sure that those who voted me get their share of attention toMorrow, in case I die." I'd like to call that wolvish but maybe I can't jump on everything he says just because I suspect him...

#256 "I could vote for Menel, too, if sufficient support is given. I think I'll hesitate voting McCaber since I just realised it was Menel who gave him his one vote. Boro? Menel? Or maybe McCaber? I don't want to have to vote Volo to have a chance to save myself." Didn't he just say he would not like to vote Boro?

#261 A vote tally. Calls Lommy's vote suspicious. Not much to comment.

#267 "I'd clearly prefer voting McCaber over voting Volo."

#269 Votes McCaber.


I don't have time to analyse his actions toDay and I think I remember them well enough: they are very wolvish. I will hang around here 'til deadline, but I might as well vote now and have it done so we three here on the same computer won't fight for the keyboard in the late minutes. I don't know how much I even can post from now on since I've posted the most of the three of us toDay...

++Macalaure


edit: xed with everybody who posted after my last post... I almost regret voting Mac simply because he started being so nice...
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Old 03-01-2008, 11:48 AM   #344
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo View Post
Drat! I deleted my post by mistake!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
Is a Durelin-Volo-Mac trio possible? (Although that lets out Nogrod and Menel, and I feel one or both of them may have been trying to frame me toDay.)
It is possible, yet no more than that.
What do you mean? You ARE Volo!

Did you just confess?
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Old 03-01-2008, 11:50 AM   #345
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
I don't mean to be rude, but I fear Rikae thinks higher of her ability to read me than is warranted.
I suppose that could be. I'm anxious to test it and see whether it works this time or not, actually.
On the other hand, I hate to lynch you -- I wouldn't enjoy it even if I was 100% certain you were a wolf...

EDIT: X'd with Volo, Lommy & Nerwen. What the....?
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Old 03-01-2008, 11:52 AM   #346
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++Macalaure

He's voted in major bandwagons before, I've suspected him when he cast suspicion for little reason on Day 1, and if Rikae has a bad feeling about him, she's probably onto something. (unless she's a wolf)
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Old 03-01-2008, 11:54 AM   #347
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Gaaaa! Wait, Volo saying it's possible that he himself is a Wolf?

Well, that and his Ka-vote on Day One... He's definitely being quite the oddball this time, and I don't exactly know why.

Are the votes retractable, by any chance?
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Old 03-01-2008, 11:58 AM   #348
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
I almost regret voting Mac simply because he started being so nice...
I have a strong feeling many people are going to regret their votes of toDay soon - me not the least. Sorry about that. I never voted anybody like that, but you dared me to be sincere with my former suspicion of you...

I second Nerwen. Volo, what was that?
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Old 03-01-2008, 12:01 PM   #349
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No, they're not.

Now I have to think what this means.

Is Volo just being weird again for the hell of it? Did he accidentally confess to being a wolf? Did he intentionally confess? If he's a wolf, does that mean I was right about Volo-Mac-Durelin, or is he doing what Rikae did last game and fake-defending them?

Anyway–

++Volo.

I can't let that go.

EDIT: fixed bolding.
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Old 03-01-2008, 12:03 PM   #350
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Mac starts looking innocentish after I vote for him, and then Volo basically admits to being a wolf. Of course.
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Old 03-01-2008, 12:03 PM   #351
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*sigh* The sauna was messed up and although I'm pessimistic about this game, I'm here again.

Really, you aren't being helpful, Nerwen and even more, Menel. Of course I don't claim myself to be a Wolf. Is there any possible reason for doing so? Sure it is possible, I have just as big a chance of becoming a Wolf as any. Then again, I might say that everything is possible, and only possible, but inevitable. But that would be already physics and not WW.

Menel, you're being such a submarine... I can't imagine that you're Innocent and that uninterested.

Lommy's Macalysis is funny, she feels both defencive, appologetic and actually says more things that refer to Mac's Innocense than guilt. Oh well.


EDIT: Xd with everything since #348.
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Old 03-01-2008, 12:05 PM   #352
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Rikae is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Rikae is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Rikae is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
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Gaaaa! Are the votes retractable, by any chance?
Nope, I'm afraid not.
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Old 03-01-2008, 12:07 PM   #353
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Macalaure is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Macalaure is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.
This is so hilarious.

Five people have voted and four would already like to retract.
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Old 03-01-2008, 12:07 PM   #354
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Nerwen, you talk such nonsense that I will be offended if you're not a Wolf.
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Old 03-01-2008, 12:09 PM   #355
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Rikae is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Rikae is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Rikae is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
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Of course I don't claim myself to be a Wolf. Is there any possible reason for doing so? Sure it is possible, I have just as big a chance of becoming a Wolf as any. Then again, I might say that everything is possible, and only possible, but inevitable. But that would be already physics and not WW..
Except that, presumably, you actually know your own role...
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Old 03-01-2008, 12:11 PM   #356
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Oh well, there's no other option. No way can anybody but Mac be lynched toDay. Might as well be him, although this is such a mess that anybody here can be a Wolf.

++Macalaure

Do remind me not to join games without Gifteds in the future, this is depressing.
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Old 03-01-2008, 12:11 PM   #357
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Rikae is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Rikae is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Rikae is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Actually, though, I suppose I could see Volo saying what he said innocently (from the perspective of the rest of the village). Bah.
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Old 03-01-2008, 12:16 PM   #358
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Rikae is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Rikae is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Rikae is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
So, Mac, what are you?
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Old 03-01-2008, 12:19 PM   #359
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Except that, presumably, you actually know your own role...
Yes, but from your perspective it is still just as possible, unless you're a Wolf. *shrug*

Making a slip in a situation like that would need something even I don't posess.

1) One could have misread the three names, not noticing his own name.

2) One might have tried to say that, of course, the combination is possible and the only way to prove it otherwise to everyone is for one of the players to die.

3) It could have been an intentional revelation, but why so vague and why did the person then deny it as soon as he was asked.

4) It could have been a slip. The person automatically connected his own name to a Wolf. This would need the person to go out of himself and look at the game from a perspective of a mod, or something. Not only! That would also mean that the two other players (Durelin and Mac) are Wolves, because otherwise it can't be a slip because the player doesn't know the roles of the other players.

I must say that we encountered a rather amusing half-a-paradox.
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Old 03-01-2008, 12:20 PM   #360
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I love this game.
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