Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Nogrod]

“In the four hundred and sixty-ninth year after the return of the Noldor to Middle-Earth there was a stirring hope among elves and men; for the rumour ran among them of the deeds of Beren and Lúthien, and the putting to shame of Morgoth even upon his throne in Angband, and some said that Beren and Lúthien yet lived, or had returned from the Dead. In that year also the great counsels of Maedhros were almost complete, and with the reviving strength of the Eldar and the Edain the advance of Morgoth was stayed, and the Orcs were driven back from Beleriand. Then some began to speak of victories to come, and of redressing the Battle of the Bragollach, when Maedhros should lead forth the united hosts, and drive Morgoth underground and seal the Doors of Angband.

But the wiser were uneasy still, fearing that Maedhros revealed his growing strength too soon, and that Morgoth would be given time enough to counsel against him. “Ever will some new evil be hatched in Angband beyond the guess of elves and men”, they said. And in the autumn of that year, to point their words, there came an ill wind from the North under leaden skies. The Evil Breath it was called, for it was pestilent; and many sickened and died in the fall of the year in the northern lands that bordered on the Anfauglith.

In that year Túrin son of Húrin was yet only five years old, and Urwen his sister was three in the beginning of spring. […] Before the year was out […] the Evil Breath came to Dor-lómin.”


J.R.R. Tolkien: "The Children of Húrin"

[Nogrod]

Interlude, or a second Preface

Legends about the horrors of the Evil Breath spread fast before the wind itself. It surely was a most terrifying foe, only an endlessly dark mind like Morgoth’s could come up with. You couldn’t see it or touch it, you couldn’t smell it or taste it. Unlike orcs it didn’t bow to steel or stop with an arrow. No one knew where it was or what it was, but you could figure out its path where people suddenly dropped down sweating in sudden high fever and pain, having problems to breathe – and usually withering away in a few days.

Making things worse, there was no medicine that seemed to cure it. What followed was considered by many even more horrifying: the people infected had to be left on their own. There was to be no soothing of the sick and dying. The ill were left to face their agony and oftentimes imminent death alone, separated from their families and friends. It was pure cruelty.


~*~


As said earlier, before the outbreak of the Evil Breath things had looked much brighter. Late 469 F.A. the talk of the united hosts rising against Angband together had changed from vain hopes and empty bragging into some real negotiations between the different parties. And so it was that after promising to join the union of Maedhros, old Halmir, the Lord of the people of Haleth, was on a tour to meet his kin and other allies to discuss how to prepare for the coming war. The most important meeting for him was to discuss with brothers Húrin and Huor, the two great sons of Galdor the Tall.

They had agreed to have a counsel at Húrin’s village when autumn would start to turn into winter. That was settled long before there were any signs of what was to come and threaten the lands beneath Anfaughlith. When the news of this new evil finally started to spread autumn was already waning and Halmir had already set on his journey. When the stories reached these travelers on the road, it was too late to turn back.

Huor had suggested Halmir that they’d meet at the next village east from Húrin’s as he would be there before the counsel, just to settle some land-issues and aid in various defensive projects in the village. But instead of a celebration and a happy family-reunion by the fireside, the travelers met a grim and emptying village. Huor and his company had decided to stay and wait for Halmir as there were fresh rumours that Huor’s village was suffering a major outbreak of Morgoth’s Breath. It would have been too risky to try and reach home.

After a joyless and cold lunch under the empty roof of the chieftain’s house, the six travelers quietly saddled their horses. It was around midday when they headed west in the falling rain under the leaden skies, but there was no way of telling it was daytime, for it was dim and dusk like twilight.

[Nogrod]

There had been rumours of the Evil Breath of Morgoth wrecking whole villages in Doriath and Brethil, and it was generally considered just a matter of time when it would enter Hithlum. Most villages introduced quickly strict “no-strangers” -policies to ward the ill wind off. With heavy hearts village after village shut their gates from desperate refugees, their fellow men running away from the Evil Breath. But even that didn’t seem to stop the outbreak.

There had been no infections in Húrin’s village thus far, but latest rumours had it, that even Huor’s village had not only shut its gates, but was under a vicious attack by Morgoth’s Breath. And now there were these dear members of the family and beloved kin at the gates asking to be let in. How do you deny your brother and mother safety? How do you deny your foster-parents? Húrin was wrestling with the decision.

Morwen was stern as ever and reminded her husband that as a warden of his people he was responsible for their lives – and his childrens’ lives. Húrin understood this well but was torn inside: what if they were healthy and he sent them to their deaths by denying them entrance? Didn’t Halmir say they had avoided any other refugees the last days they had seen them on the roads? Was he going to make an exception for his close relatives while coolly turning away other kinsmen in need of help? He knew what Turgon would do, but well, that was different.

So it was, that in the end he couldn’t deny his heart – and he ordered the gates to be opened. There were tears of both joy and angst in their eyes when they embraced, but some of the villagers were looking at it in fear, some cursing under their brows.

Even if the village of Húrin had been spared thus far, the villagers had gotten to bed uneasy for several nights already. Tonight, even those who had not yet given up to fear were troubled.


So good Night little Villagers. Let’s see what the rising winter sun brings with it.


Dramatis Personae

Húrin, of the House of Hador, master of Dor-lómin
Morwen Eledhwen, of the House of Bëor
Túrin, their son, 5-years old
Urwen “Lalaith”, their daughter, 3-years old

Ragnir, Húrin’s blind servant
Túrin’s nurse
Sador “Labadal”, Húrin’s one-legged woodwright

Aerin, a kinswoman of Húrin
Indor, Aerin’s father

Gethron, valiant old man
Grithnir, valiant old man
Asgon, strong and hardy villager
Andróg, hard-hearted man
Algund, an old warrior
Forweg, big and bold man

Old Halmir, of the House of Haleth, Warden of the Haladin
Haldir, the heir of Halmir, chieftain of the Haladin
Glóredhel, of the House of Hador, Haldir’s wife
Brandir – Haldir’s and Glóredhel’s grandson, fosterchild in Húrin’s house

Hareth, of the house of Haleth, Húrin’s & Huor’s mom, Haldir’s sister
Huor, brother of Húrin
Rían, of the House of Bëor, wife of Huor


NB. There will be a list of all the players in the start of Day1 – and after that. This seemed just a right place to bring all the characters of the story to this Thread.

PS. Sorry this is a few minutes late. I was too busy sending off roles... and I'll still have a lot of them to deal so don't worry if you haven't gotten one yet. A moment.

[Nogrod]

To their horror, the villagers found “the Badger”, a venerable old veteran of Dagor Bragollach and former bannerman of Hador Lórindol, dead from his lonely hut beside the gates. He had received that nickname from Hador himself who dearly loved his aid: for he was well known for his badgerlike build and perseverance, and on top of that, he’d had grey stripes in his hair already at young age.

“Oh, good old Badger”, Algund sighed.

“The lines are getting thinner…” murmured Grithnir.

”The Evil Breath is here”, stated Ragnir matter-of-factly.

”May it have been just the years that finally reached him?” Aerin asked. She looked tentatively around her: “I mean he sure was an old and fragile man.”

“You’re right kinswoman. We’re all getting a bit jumpy.” Hareth said steadying her voice. “Let us not allow the fear to enter our minds”.


“No Urwen, no!”, yelled Morwen suddenly and reached for her daughter who had just leapt forwards curious to see, what was it with the old man that they had all had to gather at his cottage for. Morwen held her in mid-dash and embraced her tightly. “My dear Lalaith, old Badger is no more. We should not go close to him, for he’s…”

“He is dead. Not sick.” Forweg put in, in his bold manner.

There was an uneasy silence.


“Yes, but we should all leave this house, just to be on the safe side.” said Sador finally.

“I say we burn it down.” added Indor.

“We’ll need to decide what to do with old Badger’s body and this hut, but first we need to try and find out, if anyone is actually infected. All those infected must be quarantined, for the sake of all others.” said Húrin, glancing at his wife.

“Are we going to exam also all the fancy folk, or is the quarantine only for us ordinary people?”, asked Andróg mockingly.

“This applies to everyone. You can start the examinations from me and my wife.” said Huor firmly. “There should be no exceptions.”

Túrin pulled his father’s sleeve: “Father, what does ‘ekzami… exameaning’ mean?”

“In this case?” Húrin turned to him and gave a pause. “I don’t know, my son… I really don’t know.”


~*~


Dead, yeas dead

Nogrod – “The Badger”, Mod (dead on Night1)


Hanging around

Thinlómien
Legate of Amon Lanc
Huinesoron
Loslote
Pitchwife
Kath
Galadriel55
Lhunardawen
Inziladun
Kitanna
A Little Green
Boromir88
Urwen
Lalaith
Brinniel
Eönwë
Macalaure
Rikae
Rune Son of Bjarne
THE Ka
Satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin


It is Day1

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

[Huinesoron]

So was that a coincidence, or did we just overload the Downs by all refreshing at once? :O

Oh no: not the Badger! Still, I've heard good things about this 'quarantine' technique, so hopefully he will be the last death this village sees. Double-hopefully, we can quarantine the ones who've brought this evil on us quickly, and restore health and prosperity not just here, but in all Dor-lomin.

I really wish I could stick around and tug any loose threads that show up in the early discussion, but unfortunately deadline pretty much = bedtime for me. Should give me lots to sift through in the morning, and maybe an unspoilt overview will be just the thing to spot an incautious Infector.

(Tell you what, I can't help wondering how some of these roles 'work' in the setting. I picture Baby Turin pointing at someone and yelling 'if they lock me up I'm coughing all over you!'. Possibly I spend too much time around small children. Grabby U/L and 'ekzami' certainly sound strikingly familiar. )

... okay, I had to try three times to type 'ezkami' right; I think I might be tired. See you all in the morning!

hS

[Kitanna]

I do hope everyone is practicing good personal hygiene. No breathing, sneezing, coughing, or otherwise expelling air into other people's faces. It's the only way to survive Morgoth's Breath from what I've heard. That and obsessively washing of the hands.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

So was that a coincidence, or did we just overload the Downs by all refreshing at once? :O

Perhaps it was just you and your nefarious ways, eh? Crashing the server and whatnot. Shame.

Originally Posted by Pitchy

Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (), Mac and Sally. There, case closed.

Seems very scientific and definitely not suspicious. /sarcasm

Originally Posted by Lottie

Goodness no. I have been washing my hands so often you can smell the soap from across the village, I assure you!

Sounds about right...

Originally Posted by Pitch

As can be learned from the works of the great forensic surgeon Pontiius Pilate, washing your hands isn't all it's cracked up to be.

I certainly laughed extremely loud at this.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Like I'm imanining multiple crossposted votes in the minutes before deadline.

Driven by you?

I actually agree about chaos at DL. It seems to fall at a remarkably convenient time for a lot of people and it will create a lot of fodder for the following day. So, that'll create some hilarious tension.

Originally Posted by Lommy

What kind of statement is this! Who in Arda *would* judge anyone/ decide their Day1 vote based on these handful of posts???

And yet I believe it has happened....? Misguided innocents swayed by super clever wolfsies.
I'm having flashbacks of all the brutal ways in which WW has seen me killed. I'm not at all stressed out about this game after so long. Not me. YOU'RE STRESSED OUT!!

[Inziladun]

Alas, for the old Badger, and for us all!

May nothing fair and peaceful be left to its own comfort in these evil days? Would that we had the life of the Eldar, that no sickness should bite us.

To the matter in hand, how do we say who is the next to carry the malady? If we wait to see symptoms, it could be already too late. Yet, what other way have we to take action?

x/d with Huey

[Pitchwife]

Aaaand here we go again!


Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (), Mac and Sally. There, case closed.


Also, out of the next four people posting after me, one is bound to be an infector, right?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

So was that a coincidence, or did we just overload the Downs by all refreshing at once? :O

Hmm?

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (), Mac and Sally. There, case closed.

Also, out of the next four people posting after me, one is bound to be an infector, right?

Yes! You've already cracked the puzzle.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (), Mac and Sally. There, case closed.


Also, out of the next four people posting after me, one is bound to be an infector, right?

Well here I am the fourth to post...already one of us must be infected!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (), Mac and Sally. There, case closed.

That was very fast, dear sir! Well, I mean, in these numbers, you may be on to something... but of course I would not exclude you from this. Ha! Anyone could say that! And more importantly, did you wash your hands? I have heard that Morgoth's Breath is contained the best... by... washing hands... okay okay, that sounds weird, I admit. Maybe by not breathing, then. In fact, a wise friend of mine said that if you hold your breath - like thus -------- and you don't start coughing, you are probably healthy. There! If everyone does this, case solved.

Can I also say that no matter the grave circumstances, it is wonderful to see you all again, kinspeople?

EDIT: x-ed with Zil, Lottie and Pitchwife

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by G55

Well, don't you look at the whole gestalt of a person's posts before voting, including the early handful of posts (which is actually growing quite big for a handful )? Dismissing early posts because of the "nothing really happens" argument is dismissing part of the evidence.

Of course the early banter should not be completely ignored, I was merely saying that it's not a particularly novel and genius idea to look at more than that before voting. But anyway I maintain that later Day1 posts are on average more important than the first ones which are mainly banter.

I gotta applaud Legate for getting the discussion rolling by taking G55's fake lynch idea seriously and running with it; however I'm very confused why he'd do this (ordo trying to be helpful? wolf trying to look helpful? cobbler trying to distract people?). I mean he seems to later come to the conclusion that it is perhaps too complicated a scheme to realistically execute which is exactly why I thought it was an insane idea from the beginning. Also, as Boro points out, the game is so last-minute oriented that this scheme would not even help us very much.

Ok so far, I get a bit of a funny vibe about Kitanna and Lottie but I am very aware I always get a funny vibe about them on Day1 , so I'm holding my horses here. Boro is also acting a little weird, but to be fair, it could just be about being overwhelmed by ww nostalgia. G55 caught my attention, admittedly partly because she started accusing me (and THE Ka) on what I consider really shoddy grounds - but I wonder if this is just a knee-jerk reaction on my part.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I was referring to not voicing serious suspicions before the QT vote, which would make for a very unproductive day, no trails, lazy justifications. and a good environment for wolves to hide, which is why (I hope) innocents will avoid doing it.

Hear, hear! Not a problem toDay obviously, but good to keep in mind in the future.

Originally Posted by Greenie

You’re supposed to change your mind about people in light of better arguments or evidence. I’d be wary of any strategy that assumes consistency is a sign of innocence.

Ditto.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I also disagree with Gal about lists being vague and useless. I personally find them quite helpful; without them it’s easy to stick to talking about the loudest, most controversial villagers and topics and let others fly under the radar completely. This tends to serve wolves better than innocents since odds are at least some of them are among the quiet, less attention-seeking crowd. I’m not saying everyone should do lists, just that I think they can be just as revealing as fake votes (if not more).

Yes. Even if everyone doesn't make and post a list, everyone should at least go through the player list in their head and pause to consider each fellow player for a sec. With this amount of players it's super easy for the wolves to slip under the radar by being quiet and avoiding the contrversial topics.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

"It's all going to be CHAOS, here's why we both should and shouldn't spread the vote, ignore the (presumably majority-innocent) QT, and I'm totally not going to say we should lynch a wolf because that would be wolfy (but I'm saying it anyway)".

I know that's a rather glib summary, but this post really rang alarm bells for me. I think it's the 'finding a wolf will be nearly impossible, so there's no point trying' vibe.

Ah, have you not heard of my trademark fliflopping? Seriously though, I don't consider myself flipfloppy, my brain just works on an endless "one hand, on the other hand" loop, which is both useful and frustrating to me myself. So if I'm gonna articulate my whole thought process (like I often do, because ehhh who would think through a post before writing it? not me ) it is gonna sound wishywashy. But that being said, I absolutely don't think it's impossible to find a wolf on Day1, or that it isn't worth trying. That's why I ended my paragraph there by saying that I'm still staunchly in the camp "Day1 matters".

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I have no idea how to spot a cobbler, but it occurs to me that climbing aboard a cobbler-wagon could be a nice way for a wolf to hide. If the village ends up cobbler-hunting rather than wolf-hunting, that can only be a win for the wolves, right? So this sort of mild encouragement of cobbler suspicions raised a little flag for me.

Yes, concentrating our efforts on finding the cobbler is unhelpful and it would be a potentially beneficial path for the wolves to try to keep the discussion in that. However, I don't think anyone concentrated on the cobbler too much so far. People can and should point out when someone looks like the cobbler, even if they aren't our primary target (identifying them is still helpful, especially later in the game. After all, if the lynch shapes up to be a toss between an innocent and the cobbler, the choice is clear, and also having an idea whom not to trust in the late game voting is pretty useful).

Also correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the early Day "you're the cobbler!" posts were largely banter (certainly my accusation of Legate was at least, as you can see it was based on his in character post about refraining from breathing being a good way to stop the Black Breath).

As for "how would one spot the cobbler" - well, that's a question. Traditionally people assume the cobbler would mess around and distract the village and draw the attention and suspicion to themselves so that the wolves can slip unnoticed meanwhile, but that is certainly not the only way to play the role. The cobbler could just as well play cautiously, try to identify the wolves, and align their votes with theirs. Or something else completely. So that's certainly one more reason not to start concentrating on the cobbler instead of the wolves.

[Huinesoron]

Five minutes between a webex and actual productive work, so since Lommy replied I thought I'd return the favour

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Of course the early banter should not be completely ignored, I was merely saying that it's not a particularly novel and genius idea to look at more than that before voting. But anyway I maintain that later Day1 posts are on average more important than the first ones which are mainly banter.

I can see the argument here, but I'm also mindful of the fact that G55's original raising of no-vote Day 1 comes over as exactly the same kind of banter as 'that's just what a wolf would say!' or 'sounds cobblerish!' in opening posts. Yet it still wound up dominating the first half of the Day, and set up a lot of links (positive and negative) between the people discussing it. That could indicate a wolf taking the 'banter' and using it to cast suspicion, or using it to derail half the Day into non-wolf-hunting; it could also indicate G55 was a wolf sowing seeds to achieve the same end (which would tie in to my PitchWolf/GaladriWolf hypothesis*).

*I'm a scientist; I can't bring myself to say 'theory' on so little data.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I gotta applaud Legate for getting the discussion rolling by taking G55's fake lynch idea seriously and running with it; however I'm very confused why he'd do this (ordo trying to be helpful? wolf trying to look helpful? cobbler trying to distract people?). I mean he seems to later come to the conclusion that it is perhaps too complicated a scheme to realistically execute which is exactly why I thought it was an insane idea from the beginning. Also, as Boro points out, the game is so last-minute oriented that this scheme would not even help us very much.

Hah, I didn't read your post well enough before starting to reply... this is kind of half what I'm trying to say, but also half suspicious, because I feel like there's a lot of people who managed to 'contribute' by just talking about no-votes.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Ah, have you not heard of my trademark fliflopping? Seriously though, I don't consider myself flipfloppy, my brain just works on an endless "one hand, on the other hand" loop, which is both useful and frustrating to me myself. So if I'm gonna articulate my whole thought process (like I often do, because ehhh who would think through a post before writing it? not me ) it is gonna sound wishywashy. But that being said, I absolutely don't think it's impossible to find a wolf on Day1, or that it isn't worth trying. That's why I ended my paragraph there by saying that I'm still staunchly in the camp "Day1 matters".

I totally understand that kind of thought process (I tend towards parenthetical irrelevancies myself), but I'm also wondering whether, for what is after all a 'first game back' for most of you, there's an element of playing into your** own legend: deliberately heightening your 'trademarks' to cover up for any suspicious behaviour.

**'Your' here indicates a general thought, not specifically about Thinlomien; I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and certainly not well enough to know who's acting 'as expected'.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Yes, concentrating our efforts on finding the cobbler is unhelpful and it would be a potentially beneficial path for the wolves to try to keep the discussion in that. However, I don't think anyone concentrated on the cobbler too much so far. People can and should point out when someone looks like the cobbler, even if they aren't our primary target (identifying them is still helpful, especially later in the game. After all, if the lynch shapes up to be a toss between an innocent and the cobbler, the choice is clear, and also having an idea whom not to trust in the late game voting is pretty useful).

[...]

As for "how would one spot the cobbler" - well, that's a question. Traditionally people assume the cobbler would mess around and distract the village and draw the attention and suspicion to themselves so that the wolves can slip unnoticed meanwhile, but that is certainly not the only way to play the role. The cobbler could just as well play cautiously, try to identify the wolves, and align their votes with theirs. Or something else completely. So that's certainly one more reason not to start concentrating on the cobbler instead of the wolves.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm supposed to be working atm so I'll be back with more substance later, but just a quick note on cobbler-spotting: yes, a village that focused extensively on speculating about the cobbler would probably be a happy place for a wolf. That said, I do think it's useful to keep the cobbler in mind - that is, to remember that there is one person around whose aim is to distract us from hunting our actual wolves. So discussing potential cobbler suspicions doesn't necessarily ring alarm bells for me, but I'd be wary of anyone mainly concerned with chasing cobblers (never seen that though) or voting for a suspected cobbler instead of a suspected wolf.

Thank you both. I'll keep this in mind (though I may reconsider if either of you turn out to be wolves! )

hS

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Most people have posted, I made a list of those who stood out to me in one way or another. It is not complete - meaning, it doesn't have everyone. Generally because they posted little or I don't get any strong vibes either way. This is for the time being, because I don't know how much I am going to be able to post in the following several hours (may be a lot, may be not at all), so better to post now what I have.

Pitch - I originally thought he could be a Cobbler, simply based on his first few posts. The kind of "stir the pot" stuff.

Lommy - nearly ditto. There was some talking in circles from her though, which is normal, and she is maybe a tad more careful than I would normally expect.

Brinniel - I have seen her (and played with her) a couple of times as a Wolf, and her initial posts make red lights flash. Of course, it's Day 1, half the people say noncommital things, yada yada. But in her case, there already were some topics to discuss, and it sounded like she was intentionally picking to comment more on noncommital things. Both her first posts have the same structure: one part - remark on hygienic procedures that is not related to the game, second part - something related to the game but of all topics discussed at the moment, not necessarily the most burning ones. (Now these were notes from some twelve hours ago, her later posts made me think slightly better of her, but... still. I know she's the kind of player who, when she's a Wolf, can stay out of spotlight by doing the right maneuvers, and her behaviour seemed to me like just that.)

Kitanna posted very little to the point of making me wonder whether it was deliberate staying out of discussion while maintaining presence.

(People like Lhuna have also posted zero content and admitted it, but that's a different type of behaviour - I hope to see more from her and similar others still later, of course.)

Lottie has raised some eyebrows, but it seems to me like she acts the way innocent Lottie would.

G55's posting feels horribly aggressive, as in, questioning people on absolutely random points (such as Boro's absolutely random remark), but on second thought, she's doing it consistently and I kind of seem to recall it may be her playing style in general.

Macalaure's first post was fishy as Angband (erm... in the future maybe), meaning, subtly pointing fingers while not accusing straightforwardly. Mesa not like this at all.

Rikae is being rather provocative in the curt yet to-the-point-statements, but that is very typical behaviour. So far I am actually thinking that may be rather a sign of innocence.

Kath's one post was very helpfully structured - okay, actually let me digress here and say that I really like that way of posting, the sort of "evolutionary" approach, so please keep doing that, I'm only happy to read it, because it offers an insight into your thought process (and if you are not innocent, then fabricated one, which would also be very useful) -
---but anyway, obviously, this does not indicate her innocence or guilt in any way, but so far leaning innocent-ish. She would, however, easily post the same thing even as a Wolf (for instance, either as an innocent, she's genuinely spotting the real course of events, while as a Wolf, she may have decided to single out that particular issue and then subtly point fingers at the "misinterpreters" like Pitch, Mac, then also G55 etc. It'd be actually a very convenient arrangement, but, I may also be happy that Kath is posting such detailed things so relatively early for once, so I am reserving imagining the worst-case scenarios here.)

Eönwë seemed okay (but waiting for more content there). So does Huinesoron thus far.

Hi, Rune. Hope to see more from you. Same goes for Sally, Urwen... and whomever else I missed now.

Ok, I'll post this, see whom I crossposted with, then see how much post-able I am in the near future... But this is the state of my thought process at the moment.

Edit: x-ed with Kitanna, Zil, and HS.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm here and will be reading. I'll do most of my posting from the work computer, so toDay might be a bit quieter for me since I'm unexpectedly busy with projects.

Also, stop with this fake vote nonsense before it makes me properly suspect people. It doesn't make any sense.

And, because I promised: Links links links.

[Rikae]

Quick post while working:

I still find G55 worrying, but I seem to recall her being one of those "always suspcious" players in the past, plus the way certain others ... Kath and Brinn ... went after her looks a little opportunistic.
Not enough to make me suspect them yet, but I am making a mental note.

Pitch's interactions with G55 could be a wolf protecting an innocent who is under suspicion so as to rack up some "brownie points" later on, or also a wolf protecting a wolf. His very first banter post seemed nervous to me, and subsequent posts seem calculated.

Why is Mac looking suspicious to me? It's mainly the way he goes after Legate initially. Yes, Legate was the one to push the "fake vote" idea forward seriously, but that felt very innocent to me. He stuck his neck out, provoked conversation, thought aloud, and generally behaved like himself. I would expect Mac to recognize the same thing, and instead he seems to ... take the bait? Nothing else, really, except the gleeful feel in his posts, but that could just be the joy of playing again after such a long time. I don't know. He does love playing as a wolf, but I think he also enjoys looking sinister as an innocent.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Speaking of overcomplicating things, where did this whole idea of waiting for guidance from the QT come from? And why would we 'always have to second-guess' the QT vote,
as G55 said in #56? Unless there's a quarantined Seer AND the majority of the Cuties are innocent, the QT vote is just another vote that may be rght or wrong or misguided or driven
by evil intentions like everybody else's. No way for us to know.

Answer: I think Legate first brought it up, as an explanation for why fake votes would make sense, and I agreed. It was a worry I had since I saw the mechanic in the discussion thread. Yes, it's just one vote, but it will be a vote from a group of people whose roles are known, and therefore, it *will* be a source of valuable information (downplaying that is rather suspicious in itself). My fear is that players will hold back, wait for that information, and then cram the whole day into the last 2 hours. How exactly that would play out depends on the specifics, but in general I think anything that dampens conversation is detrimental to the village (not to mention probably annoying to people for whom the deadline is late).

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Legate

Seriously!!! That's about the most unhelpful thing ever!!! I mean, I understand you are substituting Nilp, but I'm with Kant on this one. You shouldn't make the example of doing something that might corrupt others to do the same!

I am assuming here that you mean Kath not Kant - but I'm still gonna take it and bask in the glory of being referred to as an eminent philosopher.

Originally Posted by G55

As in keeping the person you suspect as a cobbler alive on purpose? Certainly, if there is a person you suspect to be a wolf, because the cobbler doesn't count as a baddie in the tally. But surely, in terms of voting outcomes, a dead cobbler is better than a living cobbler when it comes to votes? After all, the QT just votes once collectively, which means the cobbler may or may not affect the choice of recipient. But a living cobbler always gets a vote. And gets to say a lot of things that mess with the village's head besides.

I think my train of thought was following the previous one about baddie numbers overwhelming goodie numbers in the QT if they ended up there early on. So say a wolf is lynched Day 1 and an innocent killed Night 2, the QT has even baddies and goodies - the baddies control the vote. The cobbler is lynched Day 2 and an innocent killed Night 3. The QT still has even baddies and goodies and all the Cobbler has to do is vote with the now known wolf for again the baddies to control the vote. But all of that only mattered in the case of a wolf ending up in the QT early on, which was the original thought I'd started at. Also, the villagers would know the roles of those in the QT, and so could be rightfully suspicious of any vote coming from the QT anyway. So I'm afraid it was all rather a thinking out loud exercise. In terms of voting outcomes, as you say, a dead Cobbler is better.

Originally Posted by G55

Yes, that's what I'm getting at. The QT vote can't be treated as a "known dead innocent" (possibly misguided, but still innocent). Because if it's the dead wolves dominating the vote, they know who to vote for. Which actually gives us more information than if the QT is innocently dominated. However, who knows what sort of chaos would be going on in the QT discussions.

Yeah, I think this sums up the ramble above.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Incidentally, the "fake votes" from yesterDay faded absolutely into obscurity. True, less than half of the people participated in them. But still. Wondering if anything can be gleaned from them? For now, listing them for referrence, as every bit of knowledge helps, right:

FAKE VOTES

Shasta: Lommy (according to Boro's classification - Shasta said it very early in the Day, and it went ("I *were* to vote right now, it would be for Lommy " So not sure how seriously should we "count" it.)
Boro: Legate
(both rather early in the Day)
G55: Rikae (at the heat of the debate)
Rikae: Brinniel (later real vote too)
Lommy: Boro (later voted G55)
Legate: Kitanna (my prime suspect at the time)
Loslote: G55 (followed real vote later)
Mac: Mac ("Fake votes, eh? Chew on that! ")
Huinesoron: Lommy (she was his top suspect until he had to pick among the bandwagons)

I may have missed something (some are marked ++, some are marked +-. I think in the future, IF we do this, we could do the "+-", which would make it easier).

In case we wanted to do this also in the future, I think we could set a DL for it earlier. I am not sure if it's helpful, but it may, after all, be a bit more helpful the further we go.

Except I don't know if we want to do this toDay of all Days when the CobblerThread can act based on that.

Continuing to read...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Rikae does love traps. Rikae was pretty clear yesterday in that they did intentionally set a trap and suspected Brinn fell into it. Turns out Rikae had no special knowledge, but trying to put myself back into Day 1, the wolves wouldn't have known Rikae was an ordo. Brinnwolf fell into Rikae's trap and overall with Rikae's posting yesterday felt Rikae was a gifted, or in the least Rikae was going to be an assumed innocent.

What makes you think it was "clear" that Rikae "set a trap"? Feel like I am missing something that you (and Mac??) consider obvious.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

On Rikae's death...

Scenario 1. The wolves thought Rikae was gifted. But if they though them the seer, then they know that they didn't dream of me. Really, people. Are some of you really suggesting that a wolf-version of me would be dumb enough to go after Rikae because I thought they were the seer? I don't know if any wolves would be so jumpy this early in the game. In a village of 20+, it would be very lucky indeed if the seer dreamt of a wolf on Night 1.

Well of all people, I can imagine you doing it exactly with this sort of double-trick idea.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Scenario 3. Rikae looked more innocent after the exchange with G55, so they were an easy kill.

My personal belief is 3. But even if it was not that, it likely was a part of the reasoning.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

My first thought on looking at the way the lynching went - we can assume that G55-cobbler did not think Brinn was a wolf or she wouldn't have tried to save herself?

G55 didn't know anything, so I think she'd just take the risk. It wasn't like there was much she could do. And in the case if Brinn turned out to be innocent, then self-voting would be stupid in retrospect.

[Thinlómien]

I agree the list "Pitchwife, G55, Macalaure" was a bait, but I don't recall much coming out of it. Furthermore, I can't see it looking as a seer dream by itself as they couldn't have had three dreams by this point and there's nothing to differentiate between the trio.

First "substantial" post #121: voices not particularly convinced suspicion of Gal, Pitch and Mac. Again, no seer vibes.

Vaguely defends Legate. I can kinda see the grounds for Mac's paranoia based on #128 because Rikae seems to be operating with rather "how do I prove my suspicion of Mac is correct?" rather than "is my suspicion of Mac correct?" But it's still pretty far-fetched.

#138 laconically puts Brinn in the spotlight (for saying "I'm still a bit wary of G55 and Pitchwife (less so of the former), however I don't want to get caught in a trap.") which... sounds like an innocent catching a suspicious whiff they later fixated on, but it could of course have been interpreted as a seer finally finding a legit reason for voicing suspicion for their wolfy dream.

#148 it continues:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Anyway, right now my fake vote would go to:

++Brinniel

For immediately repeating 2 of 3 names from my list as suspicions, and then backtracking explicitly to avoid getting caught in a trap right after I explained to G55 that my post was intended as a wolf trap. That was ostensibly a reply to Mac saying the group was mostly innocent, but the coincidence is just too much for me to ignore.

I know, these are the kinds of things a wolf would definitely make sure not to do, right? Right. So much so, it could be used as cover. And an innocent doing them coincidentally? That feels like a bigger stretch to me.

Mac is sort of out of Rikae's main suspects by now. He was really like a side note on Rikae's suspicions. So why is he so fixated on that?

Rikae's real suspicions seemed to be divided between Gal and Brinn. And I don't think the Brinn suspicion looks very seerish; on the contrary, it builds up based on the events on the game thread.

Thoughts?

Based on this, I'd say Mac looks much worse than Brinn. If Brinn is a wolf, I very much doubt Rikae looked the most seerish of all the villagers (remember there are four more wolves who could have had seerish accusations against them).

If Brinn is innocent, then I think Boro might look more innocent too (for his weird presumption that she's guilty, would a wolf think that way?) and Lottie looks worse (as has been pointed out, she sounded like she knew Brinn was innocent).

While Mac's conviction of it looking like Rikae-seer dreamt of him looks very paranoid wolfy. I'm unwilling to go very meta on this, but it all makes even more sense to me with Rikae/Mac being a RL couple and with them having been unhappy being on different sides in ww before. It's not a reason enough alone to incriminate Mac, but I think wolf!Mac would like to kill innocent!Rikae early on even if they didn't look particularly gifted. Of course, there would probably have to be other reasons for picking Rikae to convince his packmates it's the best choice.

Also? I think Rikae's death makes Legate look a little more innocent. He was the only one they consistently talked of as an innocent (including mild defense of him) and that alone might have been enough to ping the wolves' seer radar if neither Brinn nor Mac is a wolf.

I still would kinda like to lynch Brinn because her role would shed light on others' but I'm leaning towards lynching Mac as the best option toDay.


edit: xed with Legate and Hui and no time to read or reply right now